key and there's also fees associated. so as todd said, buyer beware. you got to read the labels here. >> kate rooney. thank you. thanks. mixed day big tech rout. we get more earnings this week. we also get a fed decision. and in a little while here probably a treasury secretary. >> yeah watching video for the bounce. >> that's going to do it for us here at overtime. >> fast money starts now. >> live from the nasdaq. >> market site. >> in the. >> heart of new york. >> city's times square. >> this is fast money. >> here's what's on tap tonight. >> ai in. >> retreat claims of a cheaper, more powerful. >> chatbot out of. >> china. >> sending big tech. sinking and nvidia. >> to its. >> worst day since. >> the. >> start of the pandemic. >> what are the concerns? overdone? >> or is the. >> us in. >> a trade? >> and is the us trade? i trade in real. >> danger and. >> out of energy. the once red. >> hot nuclear energy stocks getting crushed on that same. >> news today. vista energy now negative for the year. can the sector rebound. >> we'll debate that too.

>> plus a couple. >> of market. >> bright spots in today's. >> sea of red. >> an activist investor. tells us steel. >> to go it alone. and we count down to the first fed meeting. >> of the year, how the central bank is digesting all. >> of this. >> data. all the. market moves. >> and everything else. >> that we're working our way through. i'm courtney reagan in this evening for melissa. >> lee coming. >> to you from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight we have tim seymour, carter. >> wirth, steve. >> grasso and. >> mike co. but we are going. >> to start with. >> the ai apocalypse. maybe question mark. >> china's deep. sea ravaging names like nvidia, broadcom. amd. >> palantir, microsoft. >> after its. r1 reasoning model reportedly. >> outperformed openai. >> and cost less than. $6 million. >> million with an. >> m to. >> design now. >> nvidia losing nearly $600 billion in market cap just today. that's the largest single. >> day loss in dollar terms ever. >> that's more than the total valuation of names like mastercard. unitedhealth and exxonmobil. the nearly 17% drop

in flagship. >> ai. >> stock was its worst day since march 2020, and sent it below its 200 day moving. average for the. >> first time. >> in over two years. the move in big tech dragging the broader markets down with it. the nasdaq seeing its worst day since december 18th. the s&p down percent and a half. remarkably, the dow managing to end the day. in the green. our deirdre bosa joins us now for more on how a company few people had heard of before today. and i'm still trying to make sure i don't say wrong. could have such a big impact on the market and how much merit there is to these claims. dee, we all spent a lot of time this weekend and most of today trying to think it through. tell us what we've learned. >> okay, so i pocalypse not so sure about that, but without a doubt this is a monumental shift in ai. what's real is its performance. we don't have to trust deep seek or the chinese on that. this is an open source model, so we can see inside of it and compare it using third party benchmarks. it is just as

impressive as people say it is. not only was it cheaper and quicker to build, but it's also cheaper and more efficient to run. so developers are adopting it en masse, as well as american consumers pushing it to the top of the app store charts and dethroning chatgpt. now it hit the markets hard today because it raises a ton of questions about the way american ai has developed open ai, anthropic, google, etc. have raised and spent billions of dollars to create ever bigger and better models. demand for nvidia gpus was insatiable, but late last year and this really started before deep seek late last year, model advancements stalled and a new race took off in reasoning or the inference phase. and that was deep seeks opening to. >> essentially jump. >> to the frontier and build off what those american companies already achieved. and this is key. it open sourced it. now, it's not just deep sea creating competitive models at a fraction of the price. you've got. >> bytedance releasing. >> one last week, berkeley researchers, they did something similar for $450 in 19 hours. so

whether deep sea did it for $6 million or $60 million, that is now besides the point. it's called distillation, the most advanced models on the market right now. they don't need hundreds of millions of dollars in gpus and infrastructure. and that is a massive paradigm shift for the ai trade as we've known it. why the sell off today affected everything from chips to energy to mega-caps. now, the saving grace for the bulls, though, and what i hear from my network in silicon valley is that it's highly unlikely that american ai players are going to scale back their spend those billions and billions of dollars. the race only got that much more important, and the pressure to stay ahead has intensified. and the american companies, they're going to continue to throw money at this because it's existential for them. >> this is. >> all. >> just so fascinating to me. and at first i was trying to think through it and thinking, is this good or bad? i mean, isn't competition great? if we could do something more efficiently and less expensive, isn't that good? maybe not so great for america if it was done by this chinese company. when

we're worried about all sorts of other ripple effects there. and that's obviously part of a bigger discussion. but altogether, i mean, how should we feel about this news, even if we don't know exactly what it costs? >> so that is such a great point. and there are many in the technology sphere founders, ceos, venture capitalists who say this is a really good development, that deep seek essentially did what openai was supposed to do all along create an open source model, democratize ai. that's what deep seek did. it is so ironic that that came from a chinese company. and when you worry about things like, okay, this is developed in china, so are we going to have the same kind of censorship that the chinese government imposes on their ai companies? well, again, it's open source, so developers can just take parts of it. and you've actually seen this happen in real time today. perplexity ceo posted about this. you can just tweak the model so that you can, you know, leave things aside, like the censorship part that won't talk about tiananmen square. that is a remarkable development. on the other hand,

courtney, i mean, deep seek was top of the app store. that is the app that is going to consumers that are not filtering, that are not getting an uncensored version. and i mean, when you think about what we were worried about with tiktok, that's a social media network, worried about influence and propaganda. this is ideological. if american consumers are adopting a chinese ai, gpt, essentially that has massive geopolitical implications. wow. >> that's just. >> a. >> lot to. >> go through. deirdre, thank you so much for joining us and for following this all day long. for more on deep tech and how it's putting the u.s. place in the ai risk, i race at risk, she tried to say, check out our tech check digital doc, scan the qr code right here on the screen, or go to cnbc.com. slash tech takes deirdre. thank you again i mean wow we just went through a lot there tim i mean when you started to digest the news from the weekend and then you saw the reaction, what did you think. >> well first of all kudos. >> to deebo who was out on this

news well before the market and a few. >> days back. >> really covering a. >> story that i think caught a lot. >> of people by surprise. but. >> you know, the reality. >> of. >> what's been going on in. >> the chip wars. >> with china. >> is, you know, the. >> what's the expression? i think necessity. >> is the mother. >> of invention and. restriction might be. >> the motherhood. of invention here, too. >> and in terms. >> of. >> what's real and what's not, in terms of the cost to develop this, i think there's still a lot. >> of questions. >> but there's no question. and debo emphasized this, is that this is a. case where what we have. here is a large language model that is doing things a lot more. >> efficiently than some people. >> that have been in the market for a long time. so i don't think this necessarily calls into question the 2025 capex. and remember, this is a big week. >> for big tech. >> we're we're going to be laser focused as we were. we're only a few days from meta telling. >> us about. >> $65 billion in. >> capex for 25. >> so think about that. but it really does call into question 26. and that's something that if you look back. >> to some of the. >> chip players and nvidia notably, that is where valuations. >> are looking at. look it.

>> comes. >> back to also just positioning and markets. >> and this is here. >> also what we talk about is. >> just what the markets have. and what the markets had was a. >> very crowded. >> trade a case where. >> you had a dynamic even just. >> 3 or 4 days ago. >> and maybe there's a coincidence. >> to start. >> eight or not, or, you know, star trek or where star gate. >> yeah. yeah, exactly. >> but but the bottom line. >> here is. >> i do think this is the kind of news that the market needed. and i do think this is the kind of news. also, carter is. >> going to. >> have a great call on what's broken, what's not on heartland. >> but there's still so. >> much faith that had been placed in ai and spend and the impacts that. >> today is at least a. >> wake up call. >> yeah. carter, i wanted to go to you. i feel like i can't go too much further in the show without talking about the impact. a little deeper on nvidia stock today. i mean, do you think that that was overblown? and then what about some of the names that are competing with nvidia? i mean, because this opened the door for them, maybe they don't have to spend as much money. >> sure. >> so obviously in each case it's a different nvidia versus embargo versus taiwan. but if you look at aarti, which is an etf that covers all ai and it

has those names in it, i mean, it's an 8% drop today. and one could say i mean, that's a major setback. and yet the other way to interpret it is it just went back to where it was two weeks ago. right. so if you think about extreme weakness on any given one day, this kind of thing, typically the precondition for that is one of two things. and it's the exact opposite. extreme weakness comes from something that's been really bad and really bad. >> in. >> an established downturn, and then has a collapsing type day, meaning a sick asset that has yet further dropping and collapsing. or it comes from the condition that is happening today, something that's been very, very strong, crowded. >> complacent. >> and then out of nowhere you get a drop. so that is of course, the circumstance. you use the word crowded or complacent. and so the question is, and this is unknowable, right? i mean, let me just say something. i think i'm as qualified as the planet to determine whether tomorrow is up or down in these stocks, and i have no clue. okay. so let's get that out there. it's usually right to resist the temptation to buy into a drop in gap. there's an expression called let the dust settle. and so it's

tempting to do it, but usually it's wrong. let a few days pass. >> and some. >> people i know you like to refer to a three day rule or ten day rule. i'm not sure there's a fixed rule, but the concept of let the dust settle jumping in just because something is down usually is a bit impetuous. >> so you don't think it's a buying opportunity if you go by your rules just yet, but maybe. could be nvidia. >> so just. >> to. >> elaborate on that. so it's not. >> really it doesn't. >> have. >> to be a. >> three day rule. >> but but it could. >> be when it. >> stops going down. right. >> so when. >> you make a higher low. in a consecutive. >> day, then you buy it. >> and use that. >> day's low. >> as your exit if it breaks. >> down again. >> but a. >> couple. >> of. things that you. >> mentioned, is it good or bad? i think it's kind of good for some software companies, right? because if the input. >> cost is. >> if the input cost is going to be i. >> then shouldn't that. >> in theory be better for your bottom line? the problem is the cat's out of the bag. >> so if you. >> bar its. use in the us, we already know that they can do it cheaper. so how much money have

these top mega. >> cap names. >> spent and wasted? and going forward they can't recapture that money. but to tim's point, i think capex is still there. and to these point, it will will meta still spend the same amount of billions? probably. will they buy a ton more or will they go a different direction? i think the competitive nature that. >> you noted in the. >> beginning of the show, i think is healthy for the markets. the problem is the placement of it. so was it stargate? was it tiktok? when gina raimondo was in china, they unveiled the huawei phone. right. so there's a lot of stuff with the friction between china and the united states that they want to show, hey, we have this up on you. we can still do this better than you. so there's a. >> lot of infighting. >> but what. >> we haven't talked about is does trump, where he started with tariffs, forgot about the

tariffs. did those come back in. >> now where now. >> you get the markets focused on something else. so it's the shell game of the market. let the dust settle i made a purchase today. i think that i think that things got overdone. >> so again i think i would. and you asked about nvidia and i didn't i think gave you an answer to that. i mean there are two ways to interpret it is something that's up three and 400% entitled to pull back 15 or 20, not to personify the stock, but that's the expression. and the answer is yes. the question is, is it weakness to take advantage of or weakness to stay away from? right. and there are two types. my hunch is that the downside is to 100 nvidia. and so that's if it goes there that's another 1,718%. but right now the stock is where it was in june. so it can't be considered extended right up and up and up. and it hasn't made any. price change since june. we're now january. and so support does come into play at some point. and at some. >> point people. >> will step in and buy and some will be doing it right now in

the aftermarket and tomorrow pre-market. i think downside is 100. and again, i would apply that rule. just stand aside. nothing to be. lost by postponing all new buying in a name like nvidia until it just starts to stop, go down what's what's waiting? >> how many. >> people said at 140. >> in nvidia. >> if i could get it at 100, i'd go all in again. and then you're going to get tested because as it falls to carter's point, is it something you want to buy? is that weakness ongoing now when you really get your feet to the floor? >> well. >> and one of the stories around nvidia that we've been talking about. >> for months is. >> is at what point are the hyperscalers. >> who are the biggest customers. >> going to begin. >> to be. >> competitors and are going, congratulations. >> some confetti. >> just fell. and to what extent that. >> that that's right. >> i mean, there's going to be already competition within the ranks and that there will be more efficient models coming through. and again, i think this puts a focus on roi. >> and this. >> puts a focus not only on roi in. >> terms. >> of the. >> companies that actually. >> are developing models and where they're actually monetizing, but also. >> in. >> terms of which companies

really are actually monetizing ai now. and if you look at the broader. >> implications for. >> the market in today's market reaction. and if you look at the indices, we know why the dow outperformed, because the dow is a very different group of companies. there's really nothing to say that suddenly that the industrial world or some of these older, more traditional companies are now going to benefit. but i would say there's no question that what you have done on the other side of this, if you are significantly cheapen. >> the cost. >> to broaden ai and raise the game and bring the game in that much faster to that many more companies, it is very positive and it's very positive more broadly, possibly for the multiples and the margins. >> of the. >> market trades at. >> there's so many threads to pull on here, but i do want to take a look and turn to our friend mike, because options traders are also betting that a full us tech meltdown is unlikely. mike co joins us here with a little options. action. what do you have for us mike. >> yeah well i mean it's probably. >> not that surprising that. nvidia was the busiest single stock. option today, net of that huge decline. >> first of all, it. >> was always. >> going to. >> be one of the top three on

any given day. >> but today's big move prompted. >> a lot more flow into it. what was interesting is that call still did manage to outpace puts. and actually, rather than reaching out and grabbing the falling knife, which is, you know, how we refer to that sometimes and waiting for the dust to settle, as carter was just saying, you know, where people. >> are making. >> their bullish bets was. >> in short. >> dated upside calls. so, for example, the most active contract with a weekly 130 strike calls, buyers were paying about a buck 80, a little bit more than that. almost a couple hundred thousand of those things were trading. and so that was a way for people to risk, you know, a little over 1%. >> of the. >> stock price betting on a rebound. i don't know that that's all that likely, because i think the dust probably will settle for a few more days. but i think this. is probably the point that tim was trying to make. i think if ai is going to be so much more accessible and so much less expensive, we can think about that as a meaningful productivity and a more democratized productivity boost for businesses more generally. and if you take a look at all of the s&p 500 stocks today, two thirds of them were actually

higher. >> yeah, that is a that is obviously very interesting. and i'm also wondering, you know, does this just give any of us the incentive maybe to just broaden out a little bit. right. i mean, look at all the eggs we have in this basket. i think if i had 469 etfs have nvidia among the top 15 holdings. so even if you think that you're not an nvidia holder, you hold it in some way. and maybe that makes you want to, you know, diversify that portfolio a little bit, even though, as carter put it, a nice perspective, we are back to where we were in in june. >> yeah. in fact, if you look at. >> semis relative to the market, i mean. >> they're back to where. >> they were in february of. >> last year. >> so i mean, yeah, there's no question that this trade and the, the, the excitement around this trade has been kind of dead for a while. and in fact the market looking for leadership from both the. >> mega-cap tech. triple q's to the s&p. >> or the. semis to the q's have been lacking for that for a long time. >> i think. carter. >> since when? july. i mean, is that really. >> yeah. so i mean and that's the stunning thing because you you you only can only by looking at a ratio chart or relative

trade. you see. wow, this has felt good. but actually it's negative alpha. that is the case. >> yeah. and i just i think. we're again look when i woke up and read these headlines and then quickly checked. >> my. >> screens and heard from some of the smartest analysts on the street, the. >> sentiment was pretty skeptical. >> skeptical that, hey, how could google and microsoft, how could these companies not have heard anything about this? how could we just have gotten some some insight? and yeah, i mean, ultimately this is, you know, 4 or. >> 5 days. >> within the announcement of stargate. this is a concept that i think a lot of people felt that we won't really ever know the. costs attached to this. and hey, by the way, do you really want. deep sea as your backbone when they potentially can back up to your infrastructure and your entire gmail account, or all the things that. >> we already. >> were concerned about? so, you know, there's. there's again, it's layered on top of the geopolitics that were already ripe and red hot in the middle of tariff season. and by the way, this has implications for our fed conversation, because there's no question. >> i was going to say there's so many different like webs we can weave here. but i do want to

move on to our guest because we have a noted hedge fund manager who started worrying about deep sink around christmas time. so let's bring in dan niles of niles investment management. he was a semiconductor and computer hardware analyst. so again, tying everything together during the.com bubble, i know, dan, obviously this is something that you brought up as a concern. so when you started to hear the news, it probably didn't feel as shocking to you as it did maybe to some of the rest of us. but how are you thinking through the action that you saw today and what you think we should be aware of as investors and traders moving forward this week? >> well, i think it's more than just this week. so i've been talking about the fact that i expect an i digestion phase in 2025 since probably mid year, and there have been a lot of data points along that way where if you think about it, microsoft, which has the 49% economic interest in openai, when they reported their june quarter, they guided revenues below the street for the september quarter. then they reported the september quarter. they guided revenues below the street for the december quarter. and then when microsoft ceo was asked in december, are you

supply constrained? he said, well, i'm power constrained, but i'm not chip supply constrained. so and then you had elias sutskever, founder of openai, saying back in november, i think that we've already trained on all the data on the internet. so training scaling is basically dead. so you've had a lot of data points leading up to this point. and when i initially saw the deep seq data in, you know, it was released on christmas day, i was like, yeah, there's no way they trained on it for that little. and then as i talked to contacts in silicon valley, because don't forget, this came out on christmas day, right? everybody's on vacation. we're all enjoying new year's eve. et cetera. it became increasingly clear that they had made some fundamental improvements in the way to approach this, whether it's distillation or mixture of experts, partial activation or i'm not going to get into all the technical stuff. but bottom line, they did make some big software improvements. and from what i heard, everybody, because

it's open sourced, was looking at it and saying, hey, how can we incorporate some of this into our models? because don't forget, it's not like openai came out of not having the benefit of google, which you could argue invented transformers or did a lot of the early work. they just didn't commercialize it, which openai did. >> so all. >> of this stuff. builds one on top of the other. and what it gets down to is i don't think there's any chance that nvidia and i've said this before, does revenues up 50% this year? because whether it's microsoft cutting back on capex, because don't forget, they said they're going to spend 80 billion this fiscal year. well, if you do the math, they spent 20 billion in september. they said that's up in december. their fiscal year ends in june, which means the first half of 2025 capex spending is down from the back half of 2024. and it's been growing at 70 to 80% for a year and a half. that's a very big change when the largest spender on ai is going from growing 70

to 80% to not growing at all. >> so i understand that you don't believe in nvidia necessarily, or at least you don't believe that the revenue growth they'll have is what they've said they will have. what about some other names names like meta, for instance, which was up today with all of this, i understand that's a name that you like. what are you thinking about that name and how this plays out? >> yeah. and to be clear, nvidia has never guided for this year. they only guide one quarter in advance. but that's what the analysts have have out there. and i just don't think those numbers are achievable. but you're correct. the thing you should look at and i talked about this on friday and something i posted, which is look you have to look at the stuff. this benefits because when you lower hardware costs, it really helps with the software that's sitting on top of it. and also guys that use ai. so meta uses ai to figure out, hey, this is the video that courtney would like to watch. and oh, these are the ads she's willing to engage with. and they use ai to help with that, which is why their numbers went up so

much last year. and so that's one of the names that i think will benefit. and funnily enough, a name like you look at the software names, they're also going to benefit a lot. and so those are areas that we've been swapping into in terms of our likes versus dislikes. and if you look. further back to the a to the internet bubble, originally you had all the hardware stuff take it up. so you know, cisco, cisco, sienna, etc. and then you went through this 78% crushing in the nasdaq. and what were the biggest companies that came out of that? well, the ones that used all those lower hardware costs like an amazon, for example. and so i think you're going to see the same thing play out over a number of years. and by the way, i think nvidia, you know, revenues will grow. it's just going to grow slower than a lot of people anticipate. and but i think the value is really going to be in the software. guys that go, okay, these are the changes i can make and how can i ride on all of this investment that's happened underneath it? much

like dark fiber did not turn out to be what everybody thought back in the internet bubble, and you went through a crushing. but that crushing was great because all the guys that built on top of all that dark fiber overspend did very, very well. >> got it. that all makes sense. and yeah, that i for the facebook and the platforms really working because i'm seeing an awful lot of buckeye championship videos and i like it. dan niles, thank you so much. well, for more on deep seek and what how that could impact the future of ai, let's head to the ai connections global alts conference in miami, where the captain of the fast money ship, melissa lee, she joins us with sunny madras, the ceo and president of ai company cash. how many times am i going to say that today? take it away. >> thank you so much, courtney. >> great to see you and great to have you here. >> sunny. >> on a. >> day like today, you're. >> saying that. >> you thought the market reaction. >> was overdone. >> to the news. why is that? >> well. >> just so the magnitude, you know, really, if we think about what's happened, we now have a world class open source model

that is low cost, easy to deploy, and will probably be deployed in many different places. so you would think that the market would be excited, there would be more use of ai, and if there would be, you know, some amount of movement downwards, it would have been to the magnitude that we saw today with nvidia, right? >> i mean, in terms. >> of broader adoption, the thesis, though, is that it's going to force deflationary pricing within ai. and so that will force more broad sort of adoption by companies, by consumers, etc. the timeline has just sped up by what times. >> at this point. >> i feel like we've had. >> an 18 month. jump happen where all of a sudden now it's easier for companies to deploy. if you think about this model, it can be deployed by apple if they want to, on the kind of technology that they have. and so we're going to see a lot more a lot more deployment happen. you know, that was going to probably happen 18 months from now. happen right. >> now okay. >> so in terms of who will deploy it will be businesses. i mean that's. >> where you're sort of. >> looking for the next wave. so when we're looking. >> at. >> you know, the ai trade thinking, oh, these companies. need to. prove sort of a return on investment. we need to see

businesses adopt it and show that they are saving money. by doing so. we will see that theoretically in a shorter timeframe, which is exactly what the ai trade wanted to see. >> yes. yeah. and exactly that. right. everyone's been concerned one would lock in. now you have open source, which enterprises and researchers and business startups love, and two, a lower cost of running it. >> right. what are. >> you looking for in terms of the next steps here? what do you how do you think the community is responding? i would think that meta, with its open source llama, could be the primary. >> beneficiary immediately. >> from this deep seed being released. >> yeah, i. >> do think they're probably one of the top groups. you know, their researchers are probably looking at what, you know, the deep sea team. did they they published the research the models made available. the code is available. the weights are available. so people are looking at that. i also think, you know, smaller teams are going to be empowered in the us and other places to go and build, because they now know what's possible within a much more constrained budget. >> right. >> what does it do for a company like yours, which is ai inferencing, technology, lower costs. >> lower efficiency.

>> which is really what deep seek is, is sort of promoting at this point. you had a recent fundraise which puts you at a $2.8 billion valuation. i think, last summer. now what? >> well. >> look, you know, we've been saying and, you know, our founder, jonathan, you know, was the creator of the tpu. and so he's been thinking about inference for a long time. and these models, these reasoning models consume a lot more tokens and produce a lot more tokens. so for us this is really excellent. and we think as the world is going to need to consume more tokens, nvidia can't even supply enough chips to everyone. so it gives opportunities for us to sell into the market, you know, even more aggressively. >> there's been a lot of talk about this the whole day within the tech community. i'm wondering what is sort of the most off base take on this whole deep sea situation everybody's got to take. yeah. what is the most off base take that you've heard? >> well. >> i think the, the biggest one was the speculation that some chips were smuggled into the country. and nvidia came out with a post themselves saying that, no, these were chips that were sold, their h8 hundreds which were allowed under export control. so i think that was the

biggest one that, you know, 50,000 chips were smuggled into the country. >> what do you think is the takeaway here for the united states? and i'm not asking you to be play politician or anything like that in terms of export bans. obviously that did not stop because we were also talking prior to this interview about all the other releases coming from china when it comes to sort of this general ai industry, other competitors to dolly and photo imaging, etc, what does this show us? >> it shows us that the best minds and technology can't be constrained, you know, constrained. and really this should be kind of viewed. and i think marc andreessen had this post sputnik moment. and, you know, hopefully we together as americans can come together and basically really push ourselves over the next five years to create, be the number one leader and not try to do that through regulation. >> i think mark also said this is a great gift to humanity. do you agree? >> definitely. >> because the stock market is looking at it and just selling off the names that were associated with the ai trade, not looking at sort of the bigger picture. >> yeah, i think like what this

really unlocks is the ability for more people to do interesting research, not just chatbots, but, you know, what we're hearing about even during the stargate announcement, like the biology work, the science work, the research in math and physics, i think we see a lot more happen there because we have the ability to run these models, and researchers can run these models without having to have bigger and bigger clusters to do that. >> does this also pull. forward the peak in. >> ai spend. >> in your view? i think it's pulling forward everything. so by logic, you know it should pull forward. >> the peak. >> also in spending. >> i 100% you know jensen. he was on the bg2 pod a couple of months ago and he had this comment. he said inferencing is going to be a billion times bigger than training. and i think that's just been pulled in. so i think it's going to be an acceleration of spend. >> all right, sonny. >> great to get your take. thanks so much. >> thanks for having. >> me sunny madra. and do not miss, of course. >> a special fast. >> money live in miami that starts tomorrow and wednesday. altimeter capital ceo brad gerstner will join the gang down here to break down what he's seeing in tech, ai, and much more. that all starts tomorrow at 5 p.m. eastern time right here on cnbc court. see you

then. >> thank you so much melissa. we will be watching. it looks so nice to be down there outside. melissa and sunny thanks so much to you. coming up much more on today's big tech selloff, including how deep tech is impacting the utility trade and how the fed is interpreting all the market moves to tease that a little bit. but first, a couple of names making headlines today, the activist push on u.s. steel and how at&t managed to buck the trend to hit nearly four year highs. don't go anywhere fast. money back in two. >> options. action is sponsored by tastytrade stocks, options, futures more. trade your way. in the. >> world of investing. a beast lurks. >> between the numbers. some watch from the safety of the sidelines, but others saddle up and ride that one ton rowdy ribeye for all he's got. if that's you, join us on

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another buyer. so we saw cleveland-cliffs, we saw nucor thinking about a bid rumored to have a bid. is it going to. >> be the. >> nippon deal in the 50s? probably not. will it be the high 30s in in steel? that's probably a little bit too low. price targets across the street are probably, you know, 20% higher, at least higher from where they are right now. and when you're talking about this new ceo coming in, i'm a little confused there. anchor is looking to get that breakup fee. i'm not sure who would pay the breakup fee if it wasn't the fault of nippon for breaking up, so it would be the united states that was really at fault. i think. >> either way. >> if you look at consolidation in the space and trying to save. the steel steel companies that have had a lot of heavy, heavy headwinds, i think the stock goes much higher. >> all right. mike ko, what's your take on this one. >> well, yeah, i mean. cleveland-cliffs had made a bid for the company at around the same time that nippon steel did.

and you know, they came in only just slightly light. i think it was $54 versus 55, something like that. so, you know, clearly. and they probably should have gone for that since as a domestic acquirer, although it wasn't an all cash deal that would have been more palatable to regulators here. but i'm with steve. i mean, i think there is some some meaningful potential upside. i mean, we just have sort of the proper backdrop for it politically. and, you know, i'm missing is pulled back somewhat considerably. i like having an activist in there. and i can understand why they have a little bit of questions for the ceo not taking a domestic bid. >> interesting stuff. a lot of movement. and there is a lot more fast money here still to come. here's what we have coming up next. >> earnings season in full swing with two names kicking off the week with some major moves before the bell, the numbers that had sofi sinking and at&t surging, and another fed decision on deck as president trump is already sounding off about interest rates, what we

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year. the central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady on wednesday. for more on what we can expect, ben evans, a fed watch advisor, joins us on set. ben, any chance the fed doesn't hold? is it all in what powell has to say? >> it is all. what he is going to say. but you know market pricing at near 100% of on hold. first time since the fall of 2023. we had rates a little higher than we are today. so if he is a little bit dovish, even if it's like a tinge of it, it would be kind of a shock, right? so now buttigieg, i think what we have to take note of is waller and chris waller, who i think was really deviating from the cautious tone that we got out of the fed over the last several weeks, looking at the data and saying, we got to keep our eyes on the inflation ball and really pay attention to that. and he came from a completely different angle. you know, powell has always been a

little bit with him in that sense of like looking at inflation slowly declining and having confidence and feeling like this is going to continue no matter what's going on in the economy. so he will point to that. now, i don't think he will be politically influenced like he will maybe tweets will go around and he will it will maybe pay attention or not. i do think, though, that he knows about the administration, what they're planning to do. so they will probably have talked about colombia and what's what happened with this and how markets have reacted. and there's probably a little bit of discussion in the fed, too. you know, you're going to have to play into this now because this is this is the new reality. >> that was exactly what i was going to say. it's the first fed meeting since trump has officially been the president. and obviously powell does not want to be and says he is not influenced by politics. but we know if tariffs come into place and that does really change the game from the economic landscape. i mean, what should powell say right now when they're kind of being used as threats, as negotiating tactics? does powell even dip his toe in that water at this point? >> not exactly death border. but what he will do is that he will

take note of what they put as forecasts out in in december, where there was a surprise to markets when they raised the forecast and sort of signaled like, we're getting ready for these tariffs, they're going to impact pce. that was the message i think a lot of people got from that. and so now we're here and we're seeing the first sort of stage of it. they're going to have to think about like what's our policy look like from here. they will keep cuts on the table. i don't think that's off the table. i don't think they will hike near-term either. so they're sort of like stuck with the data that's strong. but they are dealing with the uncertainty of this trade policy. you know, because this example of we're going to put tariffs on to colombia and then we just take them off right away. it just causes uncertainty. so i think the fed will have to play into that. meaning they're going to keep the cut on the table. i think that's their way of dealing with that uncertainty. >> so that sounds to me like almost the opposite of a. hawkish cut. that sounds like a dovish hold. >> which i. >> guess isn't. >> the opposite because. >> there's no action. but i think you're pointing out that this is a consequential hold.

and i if i hear you right, i think i hear you say that waller is kind of really the fed whisperer, that maybe he's out there doing a little bit of the lifting in terms of the messaging for powell, but it sounds to me like there's nowhere else to go but to be dovish here and to kind of come back in off of what was obviously look, that was a very hawkish cut last month. and it was a case where markets which were very offsides going into that cpi tells me there's a trading range here in treasuries. >> yeah, i agree with him. i think that we're sort of at the low end of the range currently here at four and a half ish. you may dip a little bit below that. but then the upside is really 480 to 5. i think that stays in place. exactly. for that reason you have to actually sound dovish like sort of leaning against this uncertainty of the tariffs because we don't know how exactly it impacts the economy. it could push up inflation, but it could also cause unemployment because people get uncertain, don't know what to do or don't know how to respond to. what does it all mean for my consumer products that i buy every day? and so it is a dovish hold, but i don't

think they're at the point that they can accelerate the rate cuts. i don't think they're there. so what i did was sort of having yeah, well we won the battle on inflation. we can keep lowering rates but that's not an accelerating rate cut cycle. so that's the whole thing where. >> words will matter. once again ben emmons, thank you so much for being here with us. i want to get your reaction. >> well. >> i might be a broken record on this one, but i mean, and ben referred to this, that the, the yield on ten year treasuries, the cost of ten year money was 4.35 at the end of q3 2022. we are now into q1 of 2025. it just hasn't gone higher. and so the question really is here at 4.5%, is the next 100 basis points 5.5 or is it 3.5? i'm in lower camp. >> or. >> is it 100. >> basis point. >> or is it just stay. >> here. >> and it becomes this nonevent that keeps on being a nonevent? because again, if the cost of ten year money is 4.5%, that is not high, that is that is good money, cheap money, and it just hasn't gone higher every time we

pump up a little bit, oh, we're going to six quarters. it's never happened. the real interesting thing, of course, is that gold continues to behave so well beat. the s&p last year has doubled the performance of the s&p year to date. and i think that's the way to play a lot of this. >> and powell has said that monetary policy is restrictive right now and they are data dependent. so it's kind of hard to forecast. oh let's figure out what tariffs. what we heard from the last time 20% of fed governors were factoring in tariffs, 20% weren't weren't factoring in. the rest were just trying to figure out which way the wind was blowing. >> exactly. well, we'll wait and see i guess. coming up, power stocks plunging as deep seek sparks concerns over the demand for energy. why the new china eye model is putting question marks on what kind of juice artificial intelligence actually means. we're back in two. >> when you sell. >> with the. real reel, we. handle photography. >> pricing, shipping, customer service and so much more. resale

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>> yeah. >> courtney. >> well, so much of the momentum behind. nuclear and power. >> stocks has been gen ai and ai, and forecasts. >> that we'll need an ever greater amount. >> of power for data centers, which is why deep seeks promise of. >> a more efficient model is hammering these stocks. nuclear owner vistra was the biggest loser in the s&p today, wiping out more than a quarter of. >> its value. with constellation. >> and talent both. >> down more. >> than 20%. now, evercore isi said that the magnitude of the decline means that any uplift from data center load growth has now effectively been wiped out. the selling. >> also extended. >> to small modular reactor names like nuscale and oklo. still, arthur hyde from sacred capital said that deep sea doesn't really change much for nuclear over time, but that some of the independent power producers and small modular reactor names were crowded. the upstream players also dropping with the ura, uranium and nukes all down double digits, with cameco, a major miner, dropping 15%. still, courtney, it is important to note that while i is one theme driving power

stocks, it is not the only one. reshoring and electrification are also raising power demand court. >> yeah, this was a really, really interesting space today. pippa, thank you so much for running us through it. i mean, mike, pippa makes a good point. i mean, maybe in the long run you don't need you. we still need energy. it's not like we don't need energy. maybe we just don't need as much. it's not as concentrated right now. i mean, how do you trade it, mike? >> yeah. i mean, there's obviously some crosscurrents here. so, you know, a big part of the nuclear thesis was based on these very high demand numbers. and what was interesting to me was that where the nuclear producers and the miners like cameco and yarra traded down, which, by the way, i should mention that options traders actually were taking this as a buying opportunity and buying a lot of calls and all of those. but if you actually take a look at the natural gas space, so short term natural gas sold off and that's because of weather issues, people are saying, oh, it's getting a little bit warmer. so near term natural gas demand went down. but longer term natural gas demand over the course week on

week actually went up. and you take a look at nextera energy, which is actually a natural gas generation player. they actually were trading higher today. so natural gas spools a whole lot more easily. you can fire up new generation on the natural gas side. so basically i think that you could probably sort of put a little bit of a energy barbell trade on here, buy a little bit of calls on both long term natural gas and on some of the uranium miners. >> very interesting stuff. we have just talked and talked and talked. we're running out of time. don't miss fast coverage from the i connections global conference that's starting tomorrow. we will be speaking with morgan stanley's mike wilson, altimeter capital's brad gerstner, original big short traders porter collins and vincent daniel, and many, many more. it all starts tuesday at 5 p.m. eastern only on cnbc. we do still have more fast money still have more fast money though. when the temperature drops... you've got two choices. close your eyes and think warm thoughts. or open your eyes and get out here. there's only one vehicle lineup

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call, click or visit an xfinity store today. omni lux ledcom. >> got breaking news on the senate vote on the treasury secretary nominee, scott benson. eamon javers has the details. scott. eamon, what do you have? >> hey there. according to. >> take a. >> live look now at the senate floor. >> where scott. >> bessent does. >> now have the. >> votes to be confirmed as treasury secretary in the trump administration. >> scott bessent, of. >> course, a former soros fund

management partner, founder of key. >> square group. >> a yale veteran. >> and now. >> he will. >> be secretary of treasury in donald trump's administration. >> this is. >> something that bessent campaigned for in mar-a-lago in november and december narrowly won the job, although there are some doubts at the last minute whether he would get the nod from donald trump or not. he did get the nod. he now has the votes. >> and. >> he will be the next treasury secretary. >> courtney, back over to you. >> thank you very much, eamon javers in washington. up next, your final trades. >> to date recommending netflix has been the right call every step of the way, even when its stock looked expensive in the past. now, i've been pounding the table on this one for ages, and i'm certainly not going to stop now. >> mad money next. cnbc. >> in a world of uncertainty and disruption, how will your investments stay resilient? we've been navigating change for

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>> it's time for the final trade. let's go around the horn, mike. >> nextera energy ticker any. >> tim. >> you're buying. weakness in nuclear and energy ccj. >> carter pure cycle a stock that's down 40% due for a big bounce. >> and steve. >> arista networks overdone. >> thank you for watching fast money. mad money starts right now. >> my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always. a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts. >> now. >> hey i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to cramerica. people make friends. i'm just trying to save a little money here. my job is not just to entertain, but educate. to teach. them. so call me at one 807 43 cnbc or tweet me jimcramer. what do you do when you don't know what to do. how about nothing. i mean that's how i felt today when the world of artificial intelligence was upended by a chinese company that