trade. let's go around the horn, mike. >> nextera energy ticker any. >> tim. >> you're buying. weakness in nuclear and energy ccj. >> carter pure cycle a stock that's down 40% due for a big bounce. >> and steve. >> arista networks overdone. >> thank you for watching fast money. mad money starts right now. >> my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always. a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts. >> now. >> hey i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to cramerica. people make friends. i'm just trying to save a little money here. my job is not just to entertain, but educate. to teach. them. so call me at one 807 43 cnbc or tweet me jimcramer. what do you do when you don't know what to do. how about nothing. i mean that's how i felt today when the world of artificial intelligence was upended by a chinese company that claims to have a solution

to the colossal toll that nvidia exacts on anyone who wants a piece of the ai action. the chinese outfit deep sea apparently has figured out a way to get much more of an each nvidia chip, get much more out of them, much more than anyone thought possible. and that news crushed the nasdaq, which plunged 3.07%. dow advanced 2.89%, s&p lost 1.46%. now we really don't know how he did it. we do know that many big companies have ordered a huge amount of chips from nvidia, and there could be some serious buyer's remorse now. maybe all of this spending going to nvidia was needless overpay, maybe for the gigantic number of data centers that are being built. huge driver of growth in our country simply aren't needed. maybe all the cooling process expenses are big mistake. maybe the rush to reopen old nuclear plants and put up more renewable generation, and even bring back coal. totally unnecessary. today the air went out of every one of

these balloons. nvidia's decline was the biggest shocker. the stock plummeting 17%. it was breathtaking. single largest loss in a day of market capitalization in history. wait a second. the second largest single day loss. well, that was also nvidia. i mean, it looks like it has a habit of getting clobbered, but then there's also a habit of people come in and buy the dip. well, it happened again. if there are more revelations about deep sea doing much more with less, fewer nvidia chips, more compute than nvidia stock is unfortunately not done going down, though i will say the pen action off this chinese outfit did more than just knock over nvidia. stocks like uber nova, the builder of so many power plants that are needed for these big data centers, get just get hammered, falling nearly 22%. we saw a huge collapse in the merchant utilities, the ones with clean nuclear power like vistra energy constellation, which dropped 28% 21%, respectively. so by opportunity selling opportunity. how about a do nothing opportunity? because i just don't know. as always, i told investor club open hand right. what i'd be doing with the travel trust, but i didn't

really have all that much to say because nvidia didn't have much to say. now, nvidia in a way tried to help out in a positive i guess way with the release that said, quote, deep seek is an excellent ai advancement and perfect example of test time scaling. end quote. they also said that you still need significant numbers of nvidia gpus and high performance networking to make it happen. reassuring. i don't know. certainly not enough to get in front of this speeding freight train. >> all aboard! >> we do know one thing. every time anything bad happens to nvidia, you can bet all the negatives will be out there in full force, along with those who think that the benefit from deep seated, open source ai offering are going to move away or don't need as much nvidia power. salesforce, for example, has pretty much called this a tectonic shift in the ai world from hardware, which ceo marc benioff now calls a bit of a commodity to software as a service. companies like salesforce, which are proprietary and can interrogate the data and create real value. hey, the market ate it up. salesforce word today, almost 4%. and a lot of it was the

stuff that marc was tweeting. i wasn't alone. i wasn't alone in feeling a little lost here. apple stock rallied. i mean, ostensibly because they can now buy cheap or cheaper ai meta platforms, even as it already spent billions on nvidia chips, took off because of a belief that it won't need to spend that much more money in the future. but oracle, microsoft and alphabet, they got crushed. and yet they're also gigantic buyers of nvidia's chips. so they've all gone up like meta or down. i don't know. that was part of the confusion. and the real quandary is why didn't nvidia say that? it's become much more of a software company and that you need the hardware to run their software? it also would have been good to find out how many chips deep tech is really using, but it isn't. think about it. the if it was a lot right then our government would simply ban all nvidia exports to china. but a high risk situation. if you're nvidia, you're really in a jam here. see if deep seek really didn't need many chips to make its generative ai platform work. that could be very negative for the nvidia story, because then you don't have to order as many chips. but if it turns out that deep seek had hundreds of thousands of chips like the

american hyperscalers, then you'd have to believe the new president would make it much harder for chinese companies to buy anything else. now, how about all these energy and data center stories? well, these were overheated stocks like constellation ceg, not the kind or vistra or vertiv, the power system creator, or the date for the data center or ge, which makes the turbines. these are all part of the quandary because their stocks were up so much going into today, that you could argue that today's hideous declines are barely even meaningful. service was down almost 30% today, but that just means it's back to trading where it was in mid mid december. i don't know when something is that hard, when you really don't know the answer, you got to do something that's very alien. you have to sit on your hands and you have to say that one is too hard for me to figure out right now. for example, not that long ago we saw some broadcom for the tribal trust with much higher than where it went out today. if this one stabilizes i think it might be a buy because they have a ton of business away from the data center. and after this

decline the stock is no longer expensive expensive. however, i don't know. i mean it could be a freight train. how about the world of arista networks and marvell technologies? they fell 22% and 19%, respectively. they're very good companies, but again, they're up so much that i don't know where the owners are. what are they going to do tomorrow? maybe the owners said, hey, look, maybe a group of analysts downgrade all these stocks. these deep seek revelations happen so quickly that many analysts didn't even have time to assess the situation. of course, the money that streams out of these hot stocks has to go somewhere, right? and today it was flowed, flowed into well into something that had been pretty cold. so we got these absurd moves into the consumer packaged goods place like procter and gamble or the retailers like walmart and costco. i mean, i like costco, but come on, these kinds of explosive moves are totally mystifying to me, even as they were terrific for my charitable trust. nothing's happening to these companies. nothing. it's just sector rotation. so what the heck are we supposed to do here? take some costco stock and sell it because of irrational exuberance? just enjoy the win. i don't know, believe me, it is tough enough to figure out whether to say to people, okay, apple's up huge and that's a big

overreaction. i don't need to opine on costco. all that said, the real issue is the former largest company in the world, nvidia, and whether numbers now have to come down because there will be a freeze in spending as clients reassess those multibillion dollar orders. maybe it'll be like the pause in the internet build out of 2000. that turned out not to be a pause at all, but a collapse. at what point is that loss built in? honestly, we don't even know if there will be a loss, but there have been so many people saying that nvidia run is too much. it's over. it was all about momentum, perfection and dominance. but the momentum, perfection and dominance have now been called into question. bottom line i have no view on deep seat yet because we just don't know enough. sometimes you have to do the hardest thing in the world, and we play with an open hand on this show. we got to wait. we got to wait until we know more. rather than taking knee jerk action and pretending that we know the answers. how about we go to ian in florida, please? ian. >> jim. >> booyah! >> how you doing? >> not bad. ian, how are you?

>> i'm doing okay. doing all right here in sunny florida. >> nice to play here. yeah actually you. >> know investment in the club of course. >> yes. thank you thank you. >> second time caller. >> oh excellent. >> jim, i wanted to ask. >> you. >> today was kind of. >> crazy with this deep sky. >> and i've been. >> looking at. >> a stock. >> that kind of goes. >> hand in hand with nvidia. >> it's a data center. and it got really. >> whacked today, to be honest. >> with you. >> i think. it's down in the low 104. >> it's a. data center play and it's called. >> a v. >> r t. what do. >> you think. that's like the inner plumbing is inverted. it's dave cody is the chairman is my next door neighbor who used to be my next door neighbor from honeywell. i have to tell you that that stock fell so much that here's what's going to happen when you see stocks fall. $43 on $150 basis. that means the sellers are not done. they will come back again tomorrow. they will break the chart. they

will make things happen that will wish you that you bought this stock at 80, not 100. that's typically what has happened. i need to go to jack in ohio. jack. >> hi, jim. how are you, big fan. >> oh thank you, jack, thanks for calling. what's happening? >> well. >> i got an rmd i'm going to have to take this year. and i'm trying to figure out what stock to go with in my portfolio. >> i've got. >> a. >> big position in ford, and i'd like your opinion on. should i hang on to it for a while? i am up 50. i'm sorry. >> all right. well, here's what the problem with ford is. they have big warranty issues. they've got they're all coming back to haunt him because it costs so much to fix the car. now we have gm tomorrow, mary barra. i think she might report a good number, but i got to tell you, the autos are part of the economy that people are saying we need rate cut, we need rate cut, we need rate cut. and ford in particular at five times earnings, tells me that something is wrong there. oh, you know what we got to do? we got to go to caw caw in illinois. caw caw. >> hey, jim. go, eagles. go, eagles! >> go, eagles! >> how are you? go, birds! go,

birds! man, we were all over the birds this week. i picked my wife there with the dogs and everything. it was really something. go ahead. yeah. >> first time caller. >> and also a member. >> of the club. well my question to you is. >> cmg chipotle. >> what do you think? >> what's going on? >> you know what. >> i mean. somebody came out today and said that they think that the growth rate for next week, next year is not going to be that high. that was a devastating call. and what did the stock do? it went up anyway. so my take is look i think scott boatwright's doing a good job. i have no desire to trade chipotle. that's been a sucker's game. let's just own it. and if it comes down we buy a little more there. that's that's the chipotle story. it's not a trade. it's an investment. all right. look the decline in some of the market leaders today, i have to admit was what i have to say. it was just breathtaking. and i'm not willing to take either side of this trade until we know more about the impact from deep sick, i wish i could. everyone seemed to know so much. today i'm making millions of calls. i didn't find anything. oh man. i got to tell you. how is the fear of missing out shaping today's tape? i'm

telling you where i stand on the latest parabolic moves and how diversification comes into play. then could the prices of corn, cattle, and oil keep heading to heading higher together? what is that about? let's go off the charts on the rally in these commodities. and later i'm sitting down with a very controversial the ceo of beacon roofing as the company responds to a takeover, a hostile takeover bid from q xo. so stay with cramer. >> don't miss a second of mad money follow jimcramer on x. have a question. tweet cramer hashtag mad mentions. send jim an email to madmoney.cnbc.com. or give us a call at one 800 743 cnbc. miss something. head to madmoney.cnbc.com. >> it's not just about the ticket sales. >> it's maintaining that connectivity with. >> her fans. >> the power of a fan base. >> she's built. >> this billion dollar brand. >> she's able. to do.

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>> what happens when you let fomo fear of missing out control your portfolio? you get eviscerated on days like today where everything i related gets crushed thanks to some headlines from china. on the other hand, if you maintain a diversified portfolio, you can save your neck. for weeks now, we've been gripped by fomo at the cnbc investing club. when there's fomo, we often go the other way and sell into a parabolic move like we saw in so many data centers related tech stocks today. now, we trimmed back a bunch of magnificent seven stocks as they skyrocketed, and we know these moves can give up their gains in a second. it's been painful as some of these positions, like alphabet, have dwindled to the point where they're almost purely symbolic. but today shows you why parabolic moves are dangerous. there's no telling what can wreck a turbocharged rally. they just always seem to end badly. this time it was nvidia stock that got laid to waste. good thing we sold some nvidia for the apple trust. the right size position that had grown too large. i always say own it, don't trade it, but you have to sell something on the way or else your portfolio will become the nvidia fund. and you don't want to be the nvidia fund as we

saw today. you don't want to be the apple fund either. even as one came roaring back today, that was something a discipline must always trump conviction, discipline, conviction, go with discipline. at the end of the day, you always want to diversify portfolio because that's what saves you. whatever's been working stops working. we went out to the j.p. morgan healthcare conference two weeks ago, and it was a nightmare of negativity because most health care stocks have been left by the wayside. and even the winners in the group, like lily, had recently given up the ghost. kate kramer of abbott labs. that's a great company that's had a very underwhelming stock we spoke to in san francisco. before the interview, ceo robert portnoy talked about how undervalued abbott was versus its growth rate, but we couldn't think of anything that might change investors minds. save a big win. maybe an important series of lawsuits involving special infant formula. i was also marveling at all the good things procter and gamble had to say about packaged goods when they reported, but it meant as little as abbott's accomplishments. next thing you know that these two stocks are off like musk spaceships. abbott and procter both rallied more than 3% just today. abbott is

now up 19 points to 129 since that conference. and weirdly, i bet they've got more room to run. yeah, the fallout from this tech fall could be that dynamic. you rarely have a one day buyer strike. they tend to last for ages, and the money that comes out of tech has got to go somewhere. look, fomo is an insidious force. very few people actually end up making money when they join a parabolic move based on price earnings, multiple expansion, meaning paying more for the same set of earnings. when something goes wrong, the stock goes back to where the parabolic move started, or even lower. that's what i think could be happening right now with the data center stocks. if you chase them in the last few weeks, you're kicking yourself today. now that the chinese may have come up with a way to use generative ai with a lot less hardware, a lot less heat, we're seeing the same thing in the nuclear power stocks. is there tangential data center plays, too? right now you can see that they've hit the hardest hit because they have the least earnings from what could turn out to be the slow build out. remember this day, it's a perfect explainer for why

you can't lose your discipline, and you must always be seeking diversification, even if it hurts you short term. longer term. in this case, probably two weeks time. it's worth it. mad money is back after the break. >> coming up from commodities to crude to currencies, cramer spotted correlations across the market. but what is the thread connecting the assets mean for where they're headed next cramer going off the charts next. don't miss the cnbc premiere episode of shark tank tomorrow 9:00 eastern cnbc. >> for me, squawk. >> box is breakfast with the most interesting people in the world. >> it's a privilege to get. >> to talk to them. >> every day. >> it's more. >> entertaining than any. >> other. >> morning show, but you might get some useful information. >> squawk box weekday mornings, 6 a.m. eastern on cnbc. i fundamentally. >> believe if we don't. >> disrupt. >> we will be disrupted. >> there is a clear need for. >> products that are. >> going to make. >> people safer, that are going

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>> it was. >> lost. in the dock. >> grammarly for business. enterprise. ready? >> i. >> i know we saw a lot of crazy action today, but you would see some really crazy action. got to go to the commodity space. just huge rallies in corn and cattle and oil. you can think of it maybe as the trump trade, because this started not long after he won the election. or you can think of it as a commodity traders collectively trying to hedge their inflation risk. either way, these various different commodities are moving in lockstep. you know, it's actually rarely a good sign for the commodities, maybe not for you, but for commodities, right. that's why tonight we're going off the charts with the help of carley garner, a terrific technician who's the co-founder of harley trading, the author of higher probability commodity trading and our resident commodities expert. she gives us a lot of perspective and also trying to figure out what's good for you, what's bad for you, what's good for the traders, what's barefoot. i want you to take a look at this daily chart of crude oil futures in black, live cattle futures in red and corn futures in yellow. look at this. you can see that all three

of these commodities have caught fire together. and although oil started to pull back. corn and cattle remain red hot. what's weird about this is before the election, each of these commodities got traded pretty separately, right? which is what you'd expect, because they all have their own supply and demand situations. in the last few months, though, they've been trading in the same direction nonstop. garner says it looks very similar to the commodity rallies we saw in 2022. okay, we're going to see those later on. but let's take it from me that inflation was rampant. i don't know if you remember that period i do. traders didn't want to miss out on big move as she sees it. we're now witnessing the same dynamic. now some of these correlations are nuts. over the last 30 trading days, west texas intermediate crude oil futures, they've settled in the same direction as natural gas 87% of the time, corn 88% of the time, live cattle 90% of the time, gold and soybeans more reasonable 75% and 79% of the time, respectively. for the most part, they've been trading in lockstep, and now oil is broken down. garner thinks that oil is probably the leader, which leaves all these other commodities vulnerable in the coming weeks. she's also betting

that the oil downturn will be a will be persistent. we've got a strong dollar, high interest rates, lackluster demand from china, bearish seasonality and economic weakness from the rest of the world. but there it goes. right at the same time, opec hasn't been able to stabilize prices with its production cuts, and no amount of violence in the middle east has been able to truly prop up the price of crude. plus, we've now got a drill, baby white house, which tends to push down the price of oil. i want you to take a look at the weekly chart of the west texas intermediate crude. it's really compelling here since peaking in march of 22. that's that. that's the spike that i was mentioning. garner notes that oil has consistently made lower highs. okay. the recent rally was stopped in its tracks by the 200 day moving average at $80. all right. the previous downtrend line, from which oil broke out earlier this month, will now become the floor of support at $73. right about where it settled today. if we can't hold this level, garner

suspects that we will see oil fall to the mid to low 60s in short order. the next floor of support at 65 is managed to reject each sell off. since the peak in march of 2022. but the more times we knock on the door, the more likely it is to open. put it all together and garner wouldn't be surprised if oil ends up sliding all the way down to its multi-year pivot line at 51 bucks. hey, that'd be great news for us, wouldn't it? all right, now, what about cattle when you just single out the live cattle futures, you see a market that's fueling unsustainable inflation. and we know that when we go to buy beef. right. it's a nightmare. live cattle futures are now trading over $200, which is $2 per pound. okay. may sound like a great deal for beef, but keep in mind that's the price of the live cow and not the final steak. garner points out that there's a reason the cattle futures have been roaring in this country. we're currently facing the lowest per head cattle inventory since 1951, thanks to perpetual droughts and a few years of obscenely high

feed costs like coffee, high beef prices haven't deterred consumers. even if people prefer to go to places that offer relative bargains like longhorn steakhouse. according to garner, the bullish narrative for cattle is deafening. as a result, we are getting word of an uncivilized cash market where buyers are willing to acquire beef at any cost. do you know what that kind of situation rarely ends well when you look at the chart. garner points out that the last time cattle supply was similarly tight and managed commodity futures were this aggressively positioned on the long side of cattle futures. that was all the way back to 2014. the result wasn't permanently higher prices. instead, we got a market top that took an entire decade to regain. even so, many believers. the tight supplies are distinct, the tight supplies are deceptive, and that the market is focused on the head count. but individual cattle are coming in at higher weights than ever, so the seemingly low numbers might not result in a meat shortage. garner points out that cattle prices are bumping against a monthly uptrend line.

the monthly relative strength index right here okay, it has started making lower highs. see that's a little bit lower than there. see that that's like that. you got to pay attention to that. and they keep doing that. she thinks cattle can still go higher. but the gains would likely be temporary. on the other hand the downside risk she thinks, is big. the line separating the bull and bear 150 or $1.50 per pound. and if high prices are the cure for high prices, so to speak, as we've seen in the past. and she thinks that 90 cent live cattle isn't an impossible expectation. wow, we're all going to need to go to longhorn then. would it be great for your grocery bills too? of course, it's not just commodities that are trading in lockstep. for example, the british pound, the euro, they're running a negative correlation of over 9,090%. this is beyond my ken. but i'm a big believer in garner. so let's go over to the currencies here. at the same time, the japanese yen and the us ten year treasury note have been settling on the same direction 93% of the time. now, the yen has also been selling,

settling opposite the dollar index 91% of the time, according to garner. such aggressive correlations are rare and generally unsustainable. this is actually pretty incredible, isn't it? further, she believes that there's a sign that many of the trends we've grown to accept in recent months could be in the final innings of the game. if something surprises or disrupts one asset, volatility will bleed into the other, and things can get quickly become very chaotic. just look at this daily chart of the ten year note in green and the yen in blue. okay, this is because the yen suffers from a massive interest rate differential versus the dollar. a few days ago, the bank of japan raised their equivalent of the fed funds rate to 0.5%. that's the highest it's been in 17 years. even if the fed cuts again at the next meeting, though, we'll still be above 4%. here's what people do. rich people, typically big hedge funds. people borrow in yen, then buy dollars and invest in the tenure. but as garner sees it, something's going wrong here. like we saw when the yen carry trade imploded in august, things could get very ugly. in the end. garner is adamant that these obsessively close correlations are always

temporary, especially in the commodity space where she thinks a breakdown is inevitable. bottom line the charts, as interpreted by carley garner, aren't obscenely high when we're talking oil or corn, but oil could be vulnerable. by the way, she does think cattle prices are an accident waiting to happen now. i hope she's right. why? because this is all hedging and creating inflation risk traders have been directly, directly causing inflation. that's what's really happening. and sooner or later that has to stop. and it could be very good news for you, the consumer. very bad news for the traders who own these contracts. i'm going to tyler in texas. tyler. >> hey jim. love the show. >> i watch it every day. >> oh great. thank you tyler, it's great to have you on the show. >> i just wanted to get your thoughts on the executive orders for the wind generation and how you thought it might affect nextera going forward. i know they were talking a lot about natural gas on the earnings call. and. >> right. well, you know, look, we did buy a nextera as a trade as a hedge trade on vice

president harris. former vice president harris winning it did just it did spike oddly. but the wind stuff is very different from solar. solar is something that the president has said he likes. wind is something that offshore he really doesn't like. and by the way, nor does ge. so i'm not that worried. nextera is a very cheap stock. let's hope that somebody realizes that the 100% sourced in america and does a good job. let's go to stafford in california. stafford. >> hey jim how are you doing? >> i'm doing fine. how are you? >> good. thanks. >> hey, i wanted to. >> get your thoughts on gtm. >> jd, pm. >> tsm. >> yes. >> okay. let me get that gtm. all right. i'm looking at. >> jd yeah. >> that would say it. >> was in the barron's. >> roundtable this weekend. >> oh, jp okay, sure. and you know, look, this is one of those companies i don't really understand is consistent gainer to me. i've liked you know we ought to look into this. i mean

this is the kind of stuff that it's food processing automation, which is kind of like if but in a different way. i think we should look into this. this is the kind of company that i don't understand why it isn't dramatically higher, because it's been so consistent. so let's do that rather than cuff it and say, hey, i like gtm, that's not good enough for you. we're going to do better for you. and if that stafford in california and it's the stafford that we beat, i just want to say thank you. the charts as interpreted by carley garner point to some pretty close correlations with the commodity and currency space. and she thinks a breakdown is inevitable in these areas. now much more mad money is qcso is aiming to acquire beacon roofing supply with an $11 billion tender offer. i'm learning the latest with the roofing company's top brass, plus a major lng player. venture. global went public last week, but with a much lower valuation than first expected. i'm going to take a closer look at the market's newest energy name and of course, all your calls. rapid fire in tonight's edition of the lightning round. edition of the lightning round. so stay with cramer.

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>> on a crazy day for the market. with some huge headlines on the ai front, i've been keeping a close eye on a hostile takeover bid that might have flown under theerad to buy beacn roofing supply for about $11 billion $124.25 per share. stock closed today at $119.58. it's up $1 $1.16. now, this has been an ongoing saga starting in november, when the wall street journal published an article stating that an acquisition would have been made by qcso. but beacon's management team wasn't receptive, was not receptive, believing the company would ultimately be worth substantially more than what qcso was willing to pay. now. last week, bloomberg reported

that they're soliciting takeover bids from rivals. we've got to find if that's true, it could be rival suitors. who knows? but what does it all mean for the building supply company that, you know, i have liked for many, many years. let's check in with julian francis. he's the president and ceo of beacon roofing supply to find out. mr. francis, welcome to mad money. >> thanks, jim. >> it's great. >> to. >> be here. so, julian, i've always admired your company because you are the dominant company. 50 states. you're doing incredible work. everybody knows that when we think of roofing in our business, we always think of beacon. so how is business? >> so jim, you know it's been a terrific run for us. i mean. this this company is in in great shape. >> we've we've. >> transformed the. >> business over the last several. >> years since. >> you came in. >> frankly. >> since i. >> joined the company. >> yeah, we the. >> stock has performed. >> you know. we've done that transformation. >> the stock has performed. >> we're up. >> 300% since. >> i joined. >> the company. that's about. >> four and a half, $5 billion. >> of value created over that. >> period of time. >> so incredibly. >> proud of that. and we.

>> navigated the pandemic. >> we focused. >> the. >> portfolio on our core business. we brought. >> in. >> some great talent, and we. >> launched. >> our ambition 2025. >> plan, which was to grow top line. >> grow bottom line. and we've. >> been continuing. >> to do that. >> and that's been an environment. >> where the macro has not. been the kindest to us. i mean, we've had. >> rising rates. >> environment, we've had very. >> low housing. >> starts on a. >> historic basis. you know, about. >> the in the building and. >> the commercial. >> sentiment on. >> the. >> nonresidential construction. >> has also been a little bit. >> soft and choppy. >> post pandemic. so we. >> think we've. >> been doing great, create a lot of value in. >> a tough environment. >> well, now, julian, i've got to tell you, my colleague david faber this morning said a couple of things that kind of astonished me. he said, look, in this new regulatory regime, they can make this offer, brad jacobs behind it and they can get done in as little as 20 days. is that possible? well. >> possible. >> you know, i'm not sure that that's possible, jim. but look, we are where we are. obviously we got the news this morning.

it's going to be you. >> know. >> it's an exciting. >> time for. >> the company. >> we've been. >> trying to get the. >> news out. >> we wanted to. >> share the news that we had. with with qcso. and but we're. >> excited to. >> get our investor. >> day, which is march 13th. >> so we're. >> looking forward. >> to. >> getting to that. >> yeah. well, i hope that if david's wrong then you get a chance. well, no, you know things it's fluid. there are many things. >> absolutely. >> you know we did some back of the envelope work here. there was a company that we owned from my childhood called home depot, and we were really thrilled that they bought this company called srs. now, i know they paid a lot for it, but it's worked out really well. if we use the same ebitda multiple we get on your stock on the run 19, you get $204. so i'm trying to figure out how they came up with the 125. now of course i could go to brad for that. i've known brad for a long time, but what is the price that you think? you know what? i think we've done a great job, but this price is one that i can't get us there in five

years. let's take it. >> look, i'm. >> not going to speculate. >> on what the board determines. >> the value. >> of the company is, but. >> what we're. >> dealing with. right now. >> is an offer for 124. >> 25. >> per share. >> we determined. at the time. >> the board determined at the. >> time that that was insufficient. we went back. >> and tried. >> to be constructive. >> with with qcso. >> constructive meaning. look, we can do better constructive meaning. this is where we could be. what's constructive? >> meaning constructive? >> i think he may think that constructive. >> constructive is. we try to engage with. >> them and. >> we try to. >> have a conversation. >> we offered. them our. >> long range plan. >> let them under. >> the. >> hood to. >> show them what we were capable of doing. >> and to revalue. >> the company. based on what we were prepared. >> to share with them. >> they said no. >> we tried. once again to. >> go in there. >> we offered. >> them an nda agreement that allowed them. >> to continue. >> to. >> do what they've done today, and. >> it was. >> a short. term nda. >> that still allowed. them to take the offer straight to shareholders. they said. >> no at.

>> that as well. and so. >> here we. >> are and we try to be constructive. >> as i said, with engaging with them to see if we could get the value to where we thought it. was the right number. >> let's puzzle through this. i think there are probably people at home are saying, who is this guy who suddenly creates this vehicle and then goes after another person company that's done quite well? it seems unfair. should that even matter in the equation? >> no, this. >> is about shareholder value. >> i mean, ultimately we are here. i lead this company in order to generate shareholder value. that's fundamentally it. >> we do it through. >> being a great company. >> we do. >> it. >> by hiring. >> great employees. >> we do. >> it by delivering. >> roofs and. >> doing hard things. >> right. >> and so. >> no, it's not personal. it's not about that. >> it's about value and about shareholders. >> could you argue that the stock would be somewhere around here without a takeover bid, or do you think it would fall drastically if mr. jacobs walked away? look, i. >> can answer that. >> question directly. that's a very fair, very fair question,

because i think i know that i would have paid more for beacon than the market was paying for it, because you can become i'm looking at what's happening in north carolina. i'm looking at what's happening in california, and i'm thinking, this is a stock that i would reach for, and i might reach for it for more than the stock price. >> yeah. look. >> i'm very. proud to be able to say. >> that we operate nearly 600 branches. >> across the us and canada. >> we are in all of these communities. we're in asheville, we're in la, we're in augusta. we're in. these places. >> that get hit. our people. >> are part of those. >> communities. >> and we're very proud of the work. >> we do helping rebuild these communities. >> it's a terrific industry. it's a terrific job. we got terrific customers and terrific shareholders. >> just be sure people should know you reported revenue cagr of 8% from 2019 to 2023, during a very difficult period for the housing business. it's not like you guys have been. it said you're some woe is me. the housing is not building houses. that's not been the case. >> no, this. >> has been something. >> that, like i. >> said. >> it goes back to the transformation. and the launch.

>> of our. >> ambition 2025 strategic plan. we'd paid down a lot of debt. we had a very high debt load. when i. >> joined the company. >> we got. >> we got down that we saved $50 million. in interest. expense every year. we put. >> that back. >> into. >> the business to. >> refresh our fleets, to refresh our. >> facilities, to. >> invest in growth. >> and that's what we've been delivering. >> well, i hope the shareholders hear you. i think that you've done a great deal, i know it. look, it's made the best offer or whatever, but i wanted you to tell your side. and i think you've really told your side excellently. and i know like the best offer win. but i certainly know that you've done a great job for your company. >> i appreciate. >> that, jim. >> very proud. >> of you. >> absolutely. that's julian francis, president ceo of beacon roofing supply. even from my days at my old hedge fund, i'd always say this is the only one in the category that's a winner. thank you so much. thanks for being on the show. >> good to. >> be here. >> coming up, lightning doesn't just strike twice in cramerica. >> we are. >> jimmy choo. >> booya booya booya. >> thanks for taking. >> my call. >> it strikes every day. cramer

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tastytrade. named best online broker for options trading. genius loves company chat. >> how are we feeling. >> about the pancakes? >> pretty mad. >> you know what's. >> mid bri? your aura. >> dad. >> in the time it takes you. >> to master the slang busan. >> you could. >> have. >> bought a hyundai. >> on amazon. >> woo woo! >> boomer alert. >> lightning round is sponsored by charles schwab. trade brilliantly. >> it is time for. the thomas jefferson. are you playing the sound? and then the lightning round is over. are you ready for the lightning round? i want to start with michelle in california. michelle. >> hi, jim. >> thanks for taking my call. thanks for. >> your whole team. >> oh thank you. michelle, what's going on? >> i'm a. >> new club member. >> i've been.

>> loving it so far. and thank the. >> call last. >> oh, yeah. and on the. >> call. >> last week. >> you mentioned something about danaher being kind of complacent. so i was wondering if you could elaborate on. >> that a bit. >> i think, you know, it's funny, today was a big rotation day in health care and the stock went up. i said, look, i think that those guys are great. the rales brothers are amazing. even when on wednesday, you know, they have they got a mistake. they're the commanders. so i love them even more. but here's what i mean by that. i want them to show me that they understand that there's been some serious underperformance here, but they could come back and say, we've outperformed for so many years, jim, give us patience. i just want something that shows me that they understand that we're getting restless. i think that's a reasonable thing to say, and i do like them very much. let's go to paulette in louisiana. paulette. >> hi, jim. >> thank you. for taking. >> my call. >> of course. what do you think about katara energy? >> okay, so we sold a little katara because it's up on a straight line. it was a parabolic move. now we're watching it and waiting. but i do think it is. the cheapest natural gas company is very good for a president that wants

export of natural gas. let's go to sam in pennsylvania. sam. >> jim, first order of business. >> i got to say. let's go. >> bird. >> yes. oh, absolutely. let's go. birds. absolutely. what's happening? >> jim, i got a question about a company grail. >> you know, it was acquired. >> by illumina. it's a terrific science. just great science. but it is parabolic. it had a parabolic move and those are going to be repealed. i may i please wait until that gives back a lot of the gain that it just had. it just started going. it just started rolling over. let's go to eric in michigan eric. >> jim i'm calling on. >> blackrock today okay. >> so blackrock is a fundamental position for the portfolio for my chapel trust. i think it's been resting. the way the stock works is it has a big move that it rests big move and it rests. and the overall the long term growth rate of this thing is fabulous. i think it's going to stay that way. i'd like you to buy the stock. let's go to susan in new jersey. susan. >> hi, jim. thanks for taking. >> my call. >> and thank you. >> oh, absolutely. thank you for calling. >> yeah, yeah. >> you guys, thank you.

>> shows the. >> national treasure. oh. >> my question. my question is about dlr digital. realty trust. >> okay. i want you to wait till that comes down. that's another stock that got overheated because of the data centers. and we cannot we cannot we cannot get involved with a parabolic move of, of a stock that could go much lower. it's 2.9% yield. i think a 4% yield is probably right for that one. let's go to susan in california. susan. >> hey, jim. >> thanks for taking my call. sorry, i'm a bit. >> of a cold. >> i'm calling. >> about a stock. >> that decided last. >> october to. >> put up to 42. >> billion capital to. >> buy bitcoin. >> since it started buying it, it's. >> got. >> about $30. >> billion, but it's worth. >> the $46 billion. of course the stock. >> is jumping up and down. >> and as. >> you well know. >> microstrategy is. >> selling their strategy. okay look i say if you want to own bitcoin own bitcoin i own bitcoin. you should own bitcoin. bitcoin is a great thing to add to have in your portfolio but not microstrategy. just own the bitcoin. that's enough. and that

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>> coming into this year a lot of us were looking for a major acceleration in the ipo market, something you heard about repeatedly when the investment banks reported earlier this month. you know, they reported some pretty darn good numbers. sure enough, last week we got our first major deal of 2025 from an energy infrastructure company. it's called venture global. regular viewers might remember that. rusty brazile, co-founder and chairman executive chairman of rb energy, and one of our go to guys mentioned this one in our interview last wednesday. so we were kind of curious about it, he ventured. global has rapidly grown to become one of the top liquefied natural gas exporters in america, and it was supposed to be a major deal. now that we've got a much more fossil fuel friendly white house. but the actual offering, which price last thursday night began trading on friday, turned out to be significantly smaller than expected. originally, venture gold was looking to sell 50 million shares at somewhere between 40 to $46 a piece. that's a deal that would have valued the company around $100 billion. in the middle of last week, though, they raised the

size of the offering from 50 million to 70 million shares. but they slashed the price range, almost cutting in half, asking for 23 to 27 bucks. in the end, the deal, priced at $25 and venture global got a $60 billion valuation right out of the gate. not bad, but also a far cry from what people expected. then the stock fell $1 on friday, closing at $24 before slipping another $4 or 17% today, closing at just under 20. wow, that's some gut wrenching decline. the company is now valued at less than $50 billion. now, this is still the largest energy ipo in over a decade. but when you look at how the enthusiasm for this one just evaporated over the course of a week, it's worth taking a closer look to figure out what the heck went wrong here. first, what's the story with this company? venture global was founded 12 years ago, and it's now working on five natural gas export terminals in louisiana, near the gulf of mexico. i'm sorry, not near the gulf of america. their first facility began producing liquefied natural gas in early 2022, and the second one started

running last month. once it's fully operational, they'll be the second largest lng exporter in america, behind cheniere energy. when all five projects are complete, venture global believes they could produce 144 million metric tons per year. by comparison, right now our entire country only exports 88.3 million metric tons per year. one of the reasons why i thought the deal would be received better. what sets this one apart is that they're able to build these lng export terminals far more quickly than their competitors, because they take a modular approach to construction. but there's also some controversy here. see, when venture global was building its first lng export terminal, it lured in partners by promising cheap gas prices in exchange for the customers agreeing to lock into long term supply contracts. with those long term contracts in place, the company is able to obtain the financing it needed to build these complex facilities. but after russia's invasion of ukraine in february 2022, natural gas prices skyrocketed, at least overseas. looking to take advantage of the moment, venture global started selling lng cargoes at high spot prices, rather than selling those cargoes to its initial

customers at the lower price that they've been agreed to for years before, macron said. they could do this, they can do it because the plant wasn't yet fully operational, but the customers were obviously upset and venture global disclosed it in its ipo prospectus that it's currently involved in arbitration proceedings to deal with this issue. now, that's why i don't want to dive too deep into the financials here because, yeah, look, if they have to start fulfilling those long term contracts, low price contracts, ones, you know, the numbers will look a lot worse still. venture global has been profitable for at least the last three years. through the first nine months of 2024, however, revenue was down 45% year over year, operating income was down 72% and net income was down 79%. hard to tell how much of that is because the numbers were inflated the year before, and how much comes down to lower spot prices in 2024, or some of the deterioration in the business. venture global's second facility just began production in december, which should help, but it's hard to say by how much. the numbers are just too noisy. i think that a major reason why the venture global ipo was far less successful than these guys hope

was the noisiness. while it seemed as though, if ever, that everything was coming together all at the exact right time for this company. ipo coming merely days after president trump rescinded biden's ban on new liquefied natural gas facilities. they just couldn't get investors on board at a high price. after a couple of days of declines, venture global's valuation is roughly in line with cheniere energy. that makes sense. current market leader you could argue it deserves a higher valuation because the facilities built, it's building new facilities faster than anyone else, and i would buy that argument. in fact, i actually down here would give my blessing to put on a small position because this is a great story, even if the near-term numbers might be bumpy and the deal looks like it fell apart. but what does the venture global meltdown mean for the broader ipo market? now? this was certainly an inauspicious start for one of the first major deals of the year, and i've been hearing a lot of people claim it was a very bad sign. now they may be right. i got a different takeaway, though. different entirely. see, the hallmark of last year's ipo market was the fact that things worked pretty darn well for the few companies that managed to come public and the new shareholders, because

the banks running these deals did a fantastic job in pricing. basically, they priced the offerings low enough that they were attractive to investors, and people make good money on most of these deals. sure, in some cases, like reddit, you could argue they left money on the table by pricing the deal too low. i call that a high quality problem. in the end, everything generally worked well because no one got too greedy. i think that venture global or whoever was responsible for the initial pricing range that was floated, maybe the goldman sachs bankers got a little greedy trying to obtain a valuation that was double what people were paying for. the industry leading cheniere energy. and then they got slapped down by investors who saw what they were trying to do, and they just said, no, i don't have any grand prognostications about what the venture global deal means for the ipo market, and i'm certainly not ready to say it's dead on arrival because of what happened last week. the bottom line as i see it, venture global was an imperfect deal that was initially priced for perfection. in fact, i actually hope that everyone involved in the ipo market, especially those bankers who did a good job last year but

not last week. take note of what's happened here and try to avoid making the same mistake twice. if the investment bankers learn from their failure, then the 2025 could still prove to be a very good year for ipos. i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise. i find it just for you promise. i find it just for you narrator: tonight on "shark tank"... i make fitness fun! we're getting lit. do you see this? i've grown this to $1.4 million in sales. oh! i started my business so i could be in control of my destiny. i'm ready to take over the world. that ain't bad. i really want to save you from this character. you wouldn't like him. yikes! you're just making noise. talk is cheap. greiner: oh, my gosh. john: wait a minute. now that i saw barbara all over this like a truffle pig on a truffle... he doesn't know a damn thing about the franchise business. so?! and he's a guy. oh, my god. ♪♪ narrator: first into the tank is a business centered around a southern specialty. ♪♪