we'll break it all down. it is tuesday, january 28th, 2025, and squawk box begins right now. >> good morning. >> everybody, and welcome. to squawk box right here on cnbc. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin joe is out sick today. let's take a look at what's been happening with the u.s. equity futures at this hour. it's a prettier picture than it was yesterday at this time when you saw the nasdaq indicated off by over 1000 points this morning, there's a little bit of a bounce back, but emphasis on little there. nasdaq has actually indicated up by about 150 points. the dow is up by 40. the s&p up by 25. and it does come after a very volatile day for the markets. yesterday the dow actually closed higher

by 289 points. the s&p was down by about 1.5%. and the nasdaq was down by just over 3%. again, the carnage was much less than it was at this time yesterday, at the opening or even before the opening. but you did have the biggest drop you'd seen for the nasdaq only since about december 18th. nvidia was the big loser after concerns about the ability of china's deep seek to develop a cheap and effective artificial intelligence model without using nvidia's most advanced chips. still, some questions about how exactly that works. what's behind the scenes? but that stock was down nearly 17%. it wiped out $600 billion in market cap, and that is the biggest one day drop for a u.s. company in history. broadcom and oracle also tumbling yesterday. you can see there. oracle was down by more than 13%. broadcom down by more than 17%. as for the gainers salesforce was up by 4%. apple was up by more than 3%. again it was seen as a

winner, potentially because it had not spent a lot of effort and capex getting involved with some of these ways of going about. i take a look what's been happening with treasury yields. we do have an fomc meeting that begins today. the fed is going to be considering whether or not to cut rates. the ten year ahead of that has picked up a little bit from where we were yesterday. now we're at 456. yesterday you saw this entire fleet of quality, and that's why treasury bids were down yesterday, the two year. this morning, though is at 422. and then if you check out bitcoin which yesterday at this time was off by about 7%, it's back up above 100,000, up by about 2%, $102,798. >> meantime, president trump weighing in on dopesick last night at a meeting of the house republicans in miami. here's what he had to say. >> the release of deep seek i from a chinese company should be a wake up call for our industries that we need to be laser focused on competing to win because we have the greatest scientists in the world.

>> trump saying that he considered the low cost model to be, quote, very much a positive development for ai overall, because instead of spending billions, you will spend to reach the same solution, you'll spend less to reach the same solution. and trump saying he still expects u.s. tech companies to dominate ai. separately, deep c saying it was hit with a large scale cyberattack yesterday and was temporarily limiting user registrations. i should also just point out two tweets that i thought were interesting. one was sam altman overnight writing deep seeks are one is an impressive model, particularly around what they're able to deliver for the price. right. but we will obviously deliver much better models, he writes. and also, it's legit invigorating to have a new competitor. we will pull up some releases, which i also mean imagine means we're going to be seeing releases sooner. now there's a secondary issue because i want to read you a tweet from joshua kushner. joshua kushner, of course, runs thrive capital, one of the largest venture capital firms

and most importantly, the biggest investor in openai, who you would think has the most at stake here when it comes to all of this. and he says these pro american technologists openly supporting a chinese model that was trained off of a off of leading us frontier models, by the way, i'll interpret that. which is to say, there is a view that a lot of this was built on the back, potentially, of llama. stolen from and potentially openai and other things with chips that likely violate export controls and according to their own terms of service. take us customer data back to china. and he has one of these, these emojis that look like like i'm looking up in the air. anyway, i just think it's worth thinking about this morning as we're sort of contemplating everything that's happening here. it's not to say this. this may be a sputnik moment. it may be stolen. all of those things may be true and still have a huge impact on the industry. >> yes. look, it's a it's a game changer. you're right. this is going to be a moment they look back at. i think it's no small

issue about what you have to hand over to get deep sea downloaded. they were talking about it yesterday on squawk on the street, that it has access to all of your gmail. once you do this. >> i did not have that experience, but maybe that is true. i don't that i'm unaware. >> of steve covid i mean, that's what david faber was talking about yesterday. steve kovach was saying that when he signed up, he used his apple id because it scrambles your email and some other things that come through. but i think there are some legitimate questions. if you have questions about tiktok, this has to be a whole other exponential layer on on what happens, what gets back with it. there is censorship that takes place on this so it doesn't know or it won't answer questions. a lot of queries on things that the chinese government does not want you asking questions on. but again, it is spurring things. it's making people stop and reassess. and there's going to be a huge spurring of innovation as a result, i think. >> and i may be wrong. so we can talk about this later. you can sign up with your apple id, or you can sign up with your google

id. that's possible. apple does scramble it. i don't know if google scrambles it, i don't know, but i don't know if you have to provide your entire email account. >> that was just what they were talking. >> about on squawk on the street to me. >> but but that it would have access to your emails is what they said. gmail in particular is what they said. >> with it. then i have to do more work on that. >> yeah. the senate voted yesterday to confirm scott bessent as treasury secretary. that vote was 68 to 29, with 16 democrats joining all republicans to confirm bessent for the post. last night on air force one, president trump was asked about an ft report that said bessent prefers a gradual approach to tariffs, starting with a 2.5% universal baseline tariff that would increase over time. i think what the ft was quoting was saying it would go up every month. the president, though, said that he thought that report was mistaken and that a 2.5% tariff would not be acceptable. he'd like to see much higher tariffs. among trump's other comments, he was asked by reporters last night if

microsoft is in discussions to buy the us arm of tiktok, and he said yes. he also said that there's a lot of interest in tiktok, but he didn't elaborate further. ai startup perplexity has submitted a bid for tiktok. billionaire frank mccourt made a formal offer earlier this month. microsoft and oracle were in the running to acquire tiktok back in 2020, when trump first pressured bytedance to sell the property. cnbc is reaching out to microsoft for comment on the president's remarks that came outside of normal business hours, and i don't believe we have a response to it yet, but it is interesting to see the potential for what has happened. i think president trump also said that if there wasn't a deal that was put together, that that tiktok would go dark. >> i am still so fascinated by your comments about the gmail, i don't know, and it's apparently no. apparently, according to at least a couple of things i'm reading, there's some very strange words in their terms of service about what they're able to pick off your gmail. if you sign up using your your google

authentication account, maybe. so i'm i'm. >> did you do that when you. >> downloaded now thinking about it, i'm being this is live tv. i'm thinking. >> through like wait a second, how did i sign up for this thing? >> yeah, i'm i'm concerned. anyway, more to come on that. yeah. apple releasing a new as you can use. but i want to get to the bottom of that one. apple releasing some software updates for iphones and ipads and macs yesterday that turn on apple intelligence by default for users with supported devices. the updates also disable ai summaries for news apps, which have gained a reputation for twisting news notifications to display inaccurate facts. i've been having a lot of that. also, just text messages coming in with the apple intelligence telling me that the text message is something, just that it isn't. apple initially rolling out. i shouldn't say, not that it isn't. it's just not helpful. i'd like to see the actual message. yeah, rolling out its ai features by requiring users to opt in at this point, which slowed the pace of adoption, apple allowed apple to test new features and ensure it had enough server capacity. users

who wish to turn off these ai features can go still do, so you can do it in the settings app. >> google said yesterday that it will change the name of the gulf of mexico to the gulf of america in google maps, after the trump administration updates its official government sources. it will also start using the name mount mckinley for the mountain in alaska that's currently called denali. in a post on x, google said that it has a long standing practice of applying name changes when they have been updated in official government sources. google said the name gulf of mexico would remain displayed for users in mexico. users in other countries will see both names. all right. things that make you go. >> pretty much where i'm at right now. i'm still working on them on the gmail and on josh kushner's. josh kushner's itself. >> right. yeah. >> that's that's the emoji of the morning. >> all right. when we come back, we've got reaction to yesterday's sell off in tech stocks. plus we will get you ready for a flood of big tech

reports that are coming later this week. you can see across the board there. boeing lockheed martin, microsoft norfolk southern, ups, caterpillar, intel, visa, apple. yeah, exxonmobil and chevron both reporting on friday. and later, senator ted cruz will chair a hearing this morning on the panama canal. he will join us ahead of that hearing live from washington, dc. squawk box will be right back. >> in a world of uncertainty and disruption, how will your investments stay resilient? >> we've been navigating. >> change for 125 years. >> always looking forward. >> anticipating risks, and trusted to. manage over $1 trillion in assets worldwide. solving for the needs of investors today and tomorrow. that's the power of nuveen.

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>> control. >> everywhere. >> so. >> all right. on today's squawk planner, the federal reserve kicks off a two day policy meeting with an interest rate decision that is due tomorrow afternoon. on the data front, we'll be getting the latest durable goods numbers at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. we'll also get case-shiller home prices at 9 a.m. then on the earnings front, we'll be hearing from general motors, boeing, jetblue and lockheed martin, all of that coming before the opening bell. in fact, gm ceo mary barra will be joining us at 7:30 a.m. eastern time. first on cnbc to talk about her earnings. boeing ceo kelly ortberg will be on squawk on the street. that's coming up at 9 a.m. eastern. in a cnbc exclusive interview. and the ceo of jetblue will be on money movers at 11:45 a.m. that is another cnbc exclusive. after today's closing bell, we'll be getting quarterly results from starbucks. so we're in it. here's earnings season. bring it

on the futures this morning ahead of all of this are looking a little bit better. dow futures up by 48. the s&p futures up by 28. and the nasdaq which was down sharply yesterday a drop of more than 3% as indicated up by about 160 points this morning. those tech stocks yesterday at this hour were down significantly. you were talking about the nasdaq down by 1000 points in the premarket. at this hour. we want to bring in a guest to talk a little bit more about this. joanne feeney is partner and portfolio manager at advisors capital management. and joanne, the sell off that we saw in the tech stocks, was that a buying opportunity for you, particularly in names like nvidia or broadcom. what did you think. >> yeah good morning becky. >> you know we're. >> long time investors. >> we already. have pretty. >> decent sized positions in. >> both broadcom which we've owned actually. >> for ten years. and also nvidia. so the news out yesterday obviously. >> started a lot. >> of people. but it doesn't

fundamentally change our view in the long term i demands and applications are going to continue to drive the demand for compute power. and we can get into the details of why. because it sounds a little counterintuitive given what we heard yesterday. >> all right. why? >> yeah. so, you know, it's pretty obvious that these guys have come up with a more efficient model. and because it's open source, people are right now, you know, checking the veracity of the efficiency of the trading part of it, but also the inference part. and if they've come up with something that really is more efficient, terrific. imagine all the new applications that will be able to spring out of something like that. but the chip guys, nvidia in particular, really took it on the nose yesterday, including broadcom. and the question there becomes if you're amazon, if you're microsoft and all of a sudden you have a more efficient model. are you going to you know, take your foot off the accelerator and say, okay, i guess i'm done. i don't need to spend all that money. in the meantime, microsoft across the street is now taking advantage of it. buying all those gpus and

delivering something even better. so one has to look beyond the obvious to the competitive forces between the ai providers openai, amazon, microsoft to really figure out how much they're going to spend. and there's great analogies from the past on this. >> if you think that it's game on, then off 17, a decline of 17% must have been a big buying opportunity. did you put more money to work in either shares of nvidia or broadcom yesterday? >> no we didn't. you know one has to put that in context though right i mean when you we got a lot of questions from clients about this. when you look at the year over year performance i mean nvidia was still up 88%. something like that. broadcom up over 60%. and so you know there's a little bit of a pullback a little being a lot when it's a company. >> like. >> yeah when it's a company. >> biggest market cap evaporation in history in one day. >> exactly i mean when you're when you're that big, you know

disruptions in risk in the future. right. an increase in risk which clearly this is will cause multiples to contract. reductions in potential growth forecasts will cause the stock to fall. but one has to think back to history. i mean, imagine you're in the 1980s and 1990s. intel has come out with a better cpu per bit. you know, computation costs went down for decades. did people buy fewer intel chips because they said, oh, i got all the computing power i need. no, they kept buying more. so even as the cost per comp per compute went down, the demand continued to rise. and we'll see that. >> but this gets to the question of valuation for this stock. did you think it was overvalued two days ago. did you did you think this was a situation or did the situation change to say, okay, maybe there's not going to be such a stranglehold and nvidia being the only company that can actually deliver on that or not, because if you didn't think that that had changed somewhat, i would think a 17% off would be a

great buying opportunity unless you thought it was overvalued to begin with. >> no. yeah. we didn't think it was overvalued. we did recognize, though, that there's an awful lot of growth embedded. and what yesterday taught us is that expectations can change suddenly when a new piece of innovation comes out, when new information comes out. but if you're a long term investor, you know, you don't move on that necessarily. we already had a full size position. we didn't want to add to it. and that also speaks to the importance of building, you know, client portfolios that are diversified. and so that's what we try to do here at acm. but you know, one of the things i think people should recognize now is that we're going to see a lot more information come out about this. and more importantly, we're going to see how how the companies using these and developing these ai models react. remember, nvidia still is the only game in town, right? we're going to see some new chips from amd. but if you want the best, most powerful compute power, you still have to go to nvidia. now you have a more efficient model to run on that more impressive compute power.

it doesn't mean you're going to back away and say, well, i guess i won't use it all, or i guess i won't take the most advantage of it, so it doesn't. >> change your argument entirely. i would just think if you're really committed to that argument, you would see yesterday as a buying opportunity and put more capital to work. did you buy anything yesterday, or is this a wait and see moment to try and figure out how this is all going to shake out? >> yeah. so, you know, i think for an investor who wasn't already fully exposed to nvidia or broadcom, it was a fantastic buying opportunity. but there was still a lot more of an uncertainty associated with it. so i could see why people might be reluctant. again. we had full size positions. we've owned these companies for a long time. we're used to riding out bumps in the road like the one we have had, you know, experience yesterday. >> got it. is there anything that that looks more attractive to you? like yesterday, the conventional wisdom was a company like apple might do. well, it was up more than 3% on this. has it changed the game for any other players. and i guess how do you assess this? how do you sit down and figure out how what kind of shifts do

we want to make in the long term portfolio? >> yeah. so if this proves to be really a big change in efficiency, right, then it's going to make a lot more applications that much more powerful. and so one looks to those that want to use those applications or the software guys. and we've seen software really be underappreciated over the last couple of years. so that's a real opportunity, whether it's a servicenow or something else potentially. so that's a place. >> to look. >> and why why do you say that? >> well, so initially right. what we're going to see either is cheaper development and deployment of these ai models. and so a company that is making use of ai models to improve their products, they're going to be able to make better, faster, more powerful innovations. so their products are going to become more useful. and that should boost their revenues and sales. >> got it. hey joanne, thank you for talking this through with us this morning. as you continue to assess us, let us know what

you're thinking on things. >> you bet. thanks, becky. >> thank you. >> we got a lot more coming up on squawk box this morning. energy stocks among yesterday's biggest losers. also on the back of this news, given new questions about how much energy will necessarily be needed. i'm brian sullivan, our energy expert is going to join us next on whether the sell off was overblown or in the right. we'll see. and then later we're going to talk to msnbc's chris hayes. he's got this new book out about political division in america, social media, and how it's impacted all of us can have an interesting conversation about technology and what's going on in everybody's head. squawk box coming right back after this. >> squawk planner is sponsored >> squawk planner is sponsored by at ameriprise financial, we know our clients are so much more than clients. they're conquerors and champions, parents and caretakers, believers and breadwinners. the goals that matter most to you matter most to us.

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lunch tomorrow two eastern. cnbc. >> time now for today's executive edge. and we are now focusing on energy stocks this morning. of course they got just tortured yesterday on the back of this deep sea news and big new questions about just how much energy is required to power all these chips. if maybe you don't need as many powerful chips. brian sullivan, joining us right now on the squawk news line with his take. what do you make of this? >> well good morning. >> by the way. >> i mean. >> listen, here's. >> the reality. >> i'm down in. >> florida giving a. >> talk, and all anybody. >> wants. >> to. talk about is whether. or not this was, to becky's earlier point. >> a buying opportunity. >> here's what i want to chime. >> in with. >> we're going to wait and see what these companies announce or. >> say about capital spending. >> if they. >> decide that people are going to spend less money on energy, or they're going to need less. >> natural gas. >> on energy to. >> power these data. >> centers, then. >> the sell off yesterday.

>> i don't. >> want to. >> say the word. >> justified because the market. >> is what. >> it is. >> but that's going. >> to be the key. >> tell now. >> right now this morning. >> vistra energy. >> ge renova. >> constellation energy the names that lost 2025 29% of. their value yesterday andrew. >> they are. >> recovering a little bit. >> they're up three and 4%. not a lot. >> but if you take yesterday's. >> sell off. >> on a. vistra or a constellation. >> evercore isi. >> put. >> out a great note. >> late yesterday. >> because it's still early, saying. >> sell first. >> learn later. >> and noting that. >> with these price. >> declines. >> the valuations. >> have now. >> gone back to november of 2023 levels, wiping out all of the i led gains. that's pretty dramatic. sell now, learn later. >> that i mean that's that's interesting brian. just the idea that it's gone in a flash like that waiting to see who's going to spend. because that was the question andrew and i were

asking yesterday. is satya nadella still good for his $80 billion? how much of the money that, you know, was promised just last week by the likes of amazon and sam altman and larry ellison, how much of that is going to materialize? and i don't know how quickly we'll have the answer to that. >> i think you asked, as always, becky, the right question. if satya nadella of microsoft comes out and says, good morning, by the way, if he comes out and says. >> we're going. >> to spend 60 billion, not 80 billion. and that. >> fewer money. >> less money is going to some of these energy companies to make less chips, fewer chips to make less power for ai. >> then the. >> sell off makes a lot of sense because the market brought down the valuations. they brought down all the numbers as if satya nadella, oracle and others were going to pull back on their spending. obviously it's early. everyone's learning about this. we talked about this on power lunch on friday through deirdre

bosa our colleague. great job by her. other than that everyone's i don't want to use the word panicking. it's the wrong term guys. but let's be clear. almost nobody knows really anything about this. and so what they've done is they've sort of freaked out. let's sell everything, read what we can, and then figure out where it's going to go, because we don't want to be the last ones holding the bag. when a power company, becky loses 29% of its value, as vistra did yesterday, the market is saying, we don't know what's going to happen with power demand, but we think it's going down a lot. that's the only question that matters. >> will it? >> but do they think it's going from 80 to 60 or 80 to 0? i mean, that's a big difference too. and i think you have to layer in the idea that permitting might get easier under the trump administration than it has been in the past. i mean, there's just a lot of questions. and it looks it looks like this was a sell. now ask questions later and we'll try and figure it out.

>> yeah. and i think the market questions can be left to our friend cramer who's still riding high in the eagles win by the way. but the reality is that are we going from 80 to 0. i think your question is very well taken. 80 to 60 8 to 70. or are we not moving at all? and if we're not moving at all on energy demand? because guess what? i demand all the power needed for ai is just one small part of the equation. the reality is, people want to live in phoenix. they want to live where i am now in florida, in florida, they want to live in houston. they want to run their air conditioning all the time. and that power demand, as the nextera energy ceo told us on friday, on the air is going to go up 5 to 6 times, and ai is just a small part of that. if you're a utility investor and utilities are supposed to be, guys, the most boring companies in the world. and i say that with affection, if they're

losing 20, 23, 25% of their value in a day, that's an extreme move. let's wait and see what happens here. it was really a self first learn later kind of day on the market. on monday i'm going to get on a plane, burn some carbon and head back and be ready for power lunch today. >> okay brian, we will be looking forward to watching you on power lunch and getting more of your comments. as we all try to sort through all of this. i think, by the way, just to brian's point and your point, it is possible that you look at a stock fall by 30%. it's not that it necessarily has to go to zero, or that the power is even down by 30%. it's that the multiples on these things were so high, because the expectation was that it was going to go on forever. and if there's any slope and this goes back to the whole idea that this market has been almost priced for perfection the whole time. and so anything that's a little bit less than sort of the expectation can really take a peak, can really take something off of it pretty quick.

>> that was the question we were trying to get at with, with, with feeney was just this idea. did you think it was overpriced two days ago? if not, do you think it's underpriced now, or can the market be right on friday and on monday? that's kind of like well, except the world changed that drastically. >> it may have changed that drastically. >> did the world change that drastically? i think that's the big question, by the way, brian, safe travels and we'll see you back here this afternoon. >> i think he's gone. >> nope. okay. general motors results crossing the tape philip bo joins us right now. he has those numbers. hey, phil. >> hey, becky. >> take a look. >> at shares of general motors. >> moving higher. >> as the company beats. >> on the top. and the bottom. >> line for. >> the fourth quarter. >> earning a buck 92. >> the street was. >> expecting a buck 89. >> look at the revenue well above. >> expectations. >> at 47.7 billion, the street was at just under $44 billion. free cash flow of 1.82 billion. and adjusted margin for the fourth quarter. >> of 5.3%. >> north american profit 2.27

billion. this is really the engine of profitability for general motors. you talk about china. remember they pre-announced back in december a loss of $4 billion. that's also when they announced that they're going to be taking charges of $5 billion. most of that tied to the restructuring in china. they have announced that they have reached variable profitability on their electric vehicles. essentially each vehicle that they're building, each electric vehicle is profitable. if you strip out all of the embedded costs that have gone into developing that program over the last couple of years, then there's the guidance for 2025, forecasting another strong year in terms of profitability. eps guidance 11 to $12 per share. right now the street's at 1085. free cash flow of between 11 and 13 billion. and the capital expenditures for the year 10 to $11 billion. lots to discuss with general motors ceo mary barra. we will be talking with her coming up at 730, guys. and again, general motors beating on the top and the bottom line and the shares moving a little

higher premarket. guys back to you. >> okay phil thank you very much. we will see you in just a little bit when we come back. we do have more earnings still ahead. we're going to be hearing from boeing, jetblue and lockheed martin. that's all coming in the next hour. and later kentucky congressman andy barr will join us live from the house republican congress in miami. squawk box will be right back. >> executive edge is sponsored by at&t business. next level by at&t business. next level moments at&t has a new guarantee. because most things in business are not guaranteed. like a distraction-free work environment. -yeah,i'll circle back around. -get those steps in, kevin. your coworkers keeping things confidential. [phone ringing] oh, she's spilling all the tea. ♪♪ or office etiquette. yeah, that's not guaranteed. i know you can see me! you know what at&t guarantees? connectivity you depend on, the deals you want, and the service you deserve. can i get that logo bigger? or we'll make it right.

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>> earnings season on cnbc takes you inside the numbers. and when the ceos have a big announcement, they come here first. >> a wild hour of. >> earnings, earningselevated dl

living therma. >> tech. >> good morning everybody. welcome back to squawk box. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. if you take a look at the futures this morning we are looking at some trading in the green. this is not a massive bounce back for the nasdaq after the pretty significant declines we saw yesterday, a drop of more than 3%. but you are looking at the nasdaq indicated up by close to 100 points. right now dow futures are up by 20. the s&p futures up by about 17. >> meantime activist short seller andrew left. this is fascinating and we should have a debate about this. he wants answers from the sec. we

interviewed him here of course on the air a couple of weeks ago. now a law firm has now filed a formal petition with the agency on behalf of, i should say, his behalf, calling for rules to clarify what and when. investors who publicly comment on securities can trade, for example. so if an investor goes on tv, for example, or has a substack account or goes on to twitter last friday ends up talking about liking nvidia, i'm making this up as an example. could he then go sell nvidia yesterday. >> or has the story changed? >> or is he not allowed to write? last summer, authorities accused left of manipulating the markets and defrauding investors by making misleading statements about his positions in well-known stocks, the sec and the department of justice. focusing on how left a publicly describes his positions, oftentimes with goal targets and the like, and then how he actually traded. so in some instances he would say, i'm long this. i think that the target of the company should be this. i'm holding i'm holding it. and then, you know, the company.

then he right before the earnings call, he would sell it before, you know, before it ever reached his target. >> well that's interesting. >> so the question is when you disclose or when you declare something is a goal, is your target. you know, we have analysts who come on all the time. they say their target is x, y, z. >> do you have to then issue some public statement, some posting on x, some social media issuance? do you have to go back to the original location of where you said it? because it would make things pretty complicated for an operation like ours? >> well, i think like ours, but i think you have so many investors now who are on podcasts. i mean, look, warren buffett has publicly goes at annual meetings and talks about how he thinks apple is great or this or that. and then, of course, sometimes sometimes you'll have very famed investors say, i like something, and then you'll read the 13 d three weeks, three months later, and you'll find out that. >> three months later and three days later is a pretty big difference. well, but because one looks like you have created the furor either in favor of or against the selling pressure coming. >> down three months later, you

don't know when they sold during that, but. >> that period. but the interesting point is the sec can then find out if you go back to everybody who looks differently the sec, and then go back. and if you sold 24 hours after coming in and saying, this is the greatest stock ever, the stock goes up 17% and you sell it, should you be held accountable if. >> well, this is this is the question. >> if you if you don't tell anybody and it didn't. and by the way, it's up 17%. but you said it was going to be up 150% and you changed your mind going into it. it's an interest that obviously the sec is trying to create examples and trying to create fear. and that's what the last sec did, right? under the last chairman, they were trying to create enough of a concern factor like they did with bitcoin that people just wouldn't do it. it made a lot of public examples where they were just trying to change behavior. >> i hate the idea of a pump and dump, what they call a rug pull. now in the business. yeah, i, i'm, i'm actually more concerned about what i describe as the sort of the new age pool where you have multiple people operating together to try to

pump up a stock, knowing that then they're going to. >> talk about meme stocks, meme. >> stocks, meme stocks, but other stocks as well. i mean, this is now going on, you know, on reddit and on telegram and on dms and twitter. people are doing this. that's one thing. i have a freedom of speech issue, which is if you want to say that you believe something is great, you should be allowed to do it. >> and you can. you have the absolute freedom of speech, but that does not correlate to freedom of speech with doing one thing, saying one thing, and doing another. when it comes to securities. so the sec does have. >> this about manipulation. there's a question about manipulation. and there's a question, though, about how much power you have. and this is what's so interesting to me, which is if joe blow on the street, were to come on our show and say that he loves nvidia, he might not have the power to move a stock. okay, with. >> great power comes great responsibility. >> and then however, you know, roaring kitty is somehow has power. warren buffett has power.

bill ackman might have power. somebody else an analyst, by the way, a new analyst at a bank that you either never heard of or heard of might have no power. >> but an ax on the street. but it's very. >> interesting to then sort of decipher who's got power, who doesn't have power. i mean, i think it's a very sort of slippery slope, and i. don't know what the. >> answer is. i don't know what the answer is, but i don't think you can say flat out it's a free speech speech issue. you can say whatever you want, but when you act and potentially manipulate securities around it, that's a. >> different situation. >> and i'm not accusing andrew left of this. i'm sympathetic to his argument that he laid out on the program. >> to me, the manipulation issue is if there are records or other things that suggest that somebody says, i'm going to come on either tv or i'm going to put out a tweet, or i'm going to go on my substack account or go on a podcast, and i'm going to say, this stock is going 100 bucks. by the way, i've already put in an order to sell it at 30. >> right. >> or that there's some evidence that that this is like a genuine effort to pump the stock to get to then sell it immediately. that to me is manipulation. if

you put out a target and then you happen to say, okay, it's actually gone up a lot, i'm getting out of this right now. >> look, i can understand andrew left, wanting the rules of the road to be put out there so that people can look at this clearly, but i think it was an intentional situation from the last sec enforcement agency. >> the sec. the sec forever. it's not even this last. the sec forever has been gray on this. >> no, but i think i think gary gensler intentionally did a lot of gray activity and going after high profile things with bitcoin in particular, to try to try and scare people into not doing things. and i think the sec would like to be a little gray on the matter so that people walk a little more carefully. it's a cop on the beat type of situation, and it's going to change from agency head to agency head. >> okay. when we come back a lot more on squawk. we're going to have a conversation about technology, divisiveness in this country. what is dividing america, how social media is playing in it, and so much more. chris hayes is going to be with us, got a new book out that gets at the very heart of all of this, irrespective of your own

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equalizer because we provide that information so you can make the decisions that are right for you. cnbc is an adventure beyond my wildest dreams. >> welcome back to squawk box. we often talk about political division in our country, and our next guest has a theory behind what may be fueling that situation. chris hayes is the host of msnbc's all in with chris hayes. he is the author of a fascinating new book. it is titled the siren's call, in which he argues that technology companies have triggered a national crisis by developing products that significantly reduce our attention spans and, as a result, may be dividing us. good morning to you. >> it's good. >> to see you. so help us understand this because we talk a lot about social media on this broadcast. we talk about x on one side and instagram on the other. so there's sort of two theories of the case, i think, running through this book. one is just about the role of these of the media, but also the role of how it's dividing us. >> yeah. >> i mean, i think the best. >> way to think about it is that attention in an information. rich environment, right. which

is. >> the information economy. >> herb simon has this insight. >> back in. >> the. >> 1970s that attention is. >> the. >> scarce resource, right? >> information consumes attention. >> information is basically infinite and replicable. there's tons of. >> data out there. the thing that's. finite is our attention. it could. only be in one place or another. >> and so attention becomes. actually the. really important. >> currency of the age. >> and in. >> fact, when. >> you look at companies like google and meta, right, what are they actually monetizing? they're actually monetizing our attention much more than monetizing information. when you get competitive attention markets, right. what you are driving towards is the most outrageous, the most negative. the thing that is triggering the part of our brain stem that is most conditioned for threat, right. and the lurid. and so we're all sort of in this universe of these incredibly intense attention markets that are always going to kind of drive to that lowest. >> so that's the question. is there a business model that you could even imagine that would allow us to use these type of

services and yet not play the attention either being the attention business, but without having to take everything to the extent that it goes, whether you're on the far right or far left. >> one of the things i think is worth considering about the evolution of digital life is that the first iteration of the internet was of entirely commercial universe with aol, prodigy, compuserve, right. and aol was the belle of the ball. and of course, it was like the largest company. and they bought time warner. and that was actually replaced by a noncommercial, open version of the internet. the thing that gave us wikipedia, marc andreessen's developing of the mosaic web browser, was that all of a sudden you busted out of these small platforms, right? which was aol and compuserve, and you actually had an open internet that was fundamentally in its interactions, noncommercial, in the space you occupied. we've not now gone back to a universe in which we're all operating commercial spaces all the time. right? so the platform in every instance has a goal, which is to maximize your the use of your attention. it does not actually have to be that way. i mean, there are.

>> noncommercial i wanted to go with this. when you say it doesn't have to be that way. >> well, because we had an open internet before, there are still platforms that are relatively open. there are still protocols that are relatively open. podcast is a great example. >> clunky, and it's harder to get to some of this. >> exactly. and that's the sort of trade off. right. but podcasts are a great example, right? podcasts operate on an open protocol. they operate off the back of rss, which was developed years ago, that like anyone can use. and when you hear the phrase wherever you get your podcasts. >> right. >> right, right. that's like the openness of the old internet, that it's not contained in a platform that in every moment is trying to monetize your attention. >> look, i agree with you. i think that it's totally the goal of this. and we feed off these negative things. but i would also say that the precursor to what we see with the social media companies right now are the cable companies. the cable companies do the same thing? >> totally, yes. >> and for decades people were blaming the cable companies, particularly the far right and the far left. yeah, in terms of politics, was saying the cable

companies. >> are monetizing this. yes. >> and they're doing the same thing, and they're trying to rile people up and give this rabid sort of delivery. and that's why the ratings were so good for cable companies. >> and believe me, i mean, i live this i live this every day, right? >> that's what i'm saying. >> and the thing that i think, you know, the thing that i think about, the way that i think about our role as journalists, right, is like the fed's dual mandate, right? >> the reason this is interesting, i like. >> this. >> coming to squawk with some. >> real central bankers have a dual mandate, and they have to basically deal with two goals that are in tension with each other, which is why it's hard to be a central banker. right? they want to keep unemployment low. they want to keep inflation low. the growth high. right. and those sometimes there's trade offs between them in journalism. what i'm trying to do is like keep people's attention and also give them the tools for self-governance and information. >> that somebody is out, out angering the crowds and getting them more addicted on social media than than we do on television. >> well, no, because i actually think there's like an actual civic role for journalism that's being destroyed. >> i agree, but i would also say

that some of the far right and far left that we see in politics is not straight up journalism. it is taking a side in a perspective and then heating and fomenting totally. >> and i think that attentional incentives for that are enormous. i mean, you see it all the time. our politics are defined by a kind of trolling now. >> so where do you land ultimately on the sort of community notes of it all, and both in the sort of x land and increasingly now it's going to be in the meadowlands? i ask because there's an element to which you can argue that there's sort of like a, a truth to it. right? it's everybody can just put up whatever they want. there's there are no journalism's, no gatekeepers. there's someone on the street down here. we'll see somebody do something and they'll just write in that this is what just happened. whether it's. and it might be right. it might be wrong. some might somebody might have a video of it, but that there were no gate. the gatekeepers are all of us. are we better? who's the better gatekeeper? no, i actually think this is a fundamental question. right. like, do we want gatekeepers? do we not want gatekeepers? and i have very mixed views on this. i have

very, very mixed views of it because interestingly, i go back actually to 2020 and i think about vaccines. right? i think about, by the way, there was like a whole meme craze. right? and, you know, someone like myself, i would come on the air and i would say, be careful, folks. i think this is a little bit anxiety producing. and people would say, i don't, i don't need you to be my parents. stop. stop trying to protect me. and by the way, you're trying to protect me from the man. you're trying to protect the man, right? i'm not trying to protect me. right. and it's a very interesting sort of like flip of what? i thought the responsibilities of a journalist were supposed to be. people said, you're not supposed to be protecting us from these things. we actually want to see them. we want to know it anyway. >> well. >> so here's my i don't so i don't know the answer. >> right? so i write in the book about what i call attentional regimes, like a debate lincoln-douglas. right. like any social interaction, any meeting right has an attentional regime. like who can speak when what you're talking about an agenda. and that's necessary because attention is a means toward some

end. what we're seeing is when you have a breakdown of attentional regimes, the end itself is attention. it's just getting attention and nothing else. right. so part of what i'm talking, when you talk about gatekeepers, it's like, what is the purpose of whatever given platform is? is it just to maximize the seconds of eyeballs on it, or is it to do something else, like give people the tools they need to invest or to like, run a democracy? >> but but ultimately, the additional choice leaves the choice up to the viewer. do you want to spend more time with this gated community, where people you decide you trust or don't trust are feeding you things? or do you want to have access to anything and everything? and that's sure. >> and i think in the, you know, i think people can go both ways, right? there's different parts of ourselves. i think what we've ended up doing is basically reinventing the village rumor. right? so the idea that, like, you're the media is like, yeah, well, we've had that for hundreds of years, right? the salem witch trials was you are the media. she looks like a witch. like, we've definitely tried that before.

>> chris hayes the book is called the siren's call. and let me just say, really, no matter what your politics, i could actually see somebody who is completely far on the right level. >> oh, totally. it's not. >> mostly foreign. it doesn't matter. yeah, but it's fascinating because it really gets it, i think what's happening in society. so thank you. thanks for having me. thanks, chris. >> still ahead this morning, gm ceo mary barra will join us. first on cnbc. squawk box will be right back. >> at interactive brokers. independent rias work with the best research and trading tools designed to help them outperform the markets. meet them at interactive brokers investors marketplace for advisors advisors at interactive brokers keep all they earn on our low cost platform, with no ticket fees or custody charges, low margin rates and high interest earned on idle cash to get better results, get a better platform. the best informed investors choose interactive brokers.

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>> it's just before 7 a.m. on the east coast. you're watching squawk box on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick. joe is off. today. i want to tell you about some of the big stories making headlines right now. the senate voting yesterday to confirm scott bessent as treasury secretary. the vote was 68 to 29. 16

democrats joining all republicans to confirm him for that post. meantime, president trump now saying microsoft is in talks to buy tiktok's us business from its chinese owner, bytedance. the president telling reporters on air force one he wants to see a bidding war take place for the app so that the, quote, best deals can be made. we reached out to microsoft and they declined to comment on the story and google saying yesterday it will change the name of the gulf of mexico to the gulf of america. they're going to do that in google maps, but they're only going to do that after the trump administration formally updates its official government sources. they'll also start using the name mount mckinley for the mountain in alaska, currently called denali, that will be viewed if you're in the united states on google maps. if you're somewhere else internationally, it'll still say the gulf of mexico and apparently the gulf of america. and then if you're in mexico, it will say the gulf of mexico. so i don't know what. >> to tomato tomato.

>> presented without comment. meantime, nvidia shares plunging 17% in yesterday's regular trading sessions. the biggest single day market cap loss for a us company. joining us right now to talk about is chris caso. he's wolfe research senior analyst. chris, i think there's a lot of big questions that this what you know, people described this as a sputnik moment. so let's just start there. is it a sputnik moment. and were you buying or selling yesterday. >> well. >> you know, whether. >> it's a. >> big moment or not depends on, you. >> know, how the accuracy. >> of the claims. and. you know, i. >> know you discussed this on. >> the program. >> and i think that's the first place to start. and what. >> you know, shocked people so much. and again, this news just didn't break over the weekend. >> it's been out for a while is that they were able to provide. >> you know, so much more efficiency and training as compared to openai. >> and. >> everybody else. >> that's doing it. and how are. >> they able to do it in such a. >> short span? >> again, deep sea. >> couldn't have access. >> to large clusters of nvidia's most advanced chips. so

necessity is the mother of invention. but the question is, you know. is everything in the white paper. you know, 100% accurate? >> and. >> you know, given the, the magnitude of the moves yesterday, that's a really important place to start. >> well, but chris, let's go there because i'll give you i'll give you my perspective. i'm not sure it has to be 100% accurate. meaning i think there could be you know, it may may be that they, they trained off of 50,000 of, of nvidia's fastest chips. as alex wang said on our broadcast last week, it is possible that they are using and leveraging llama and other open source services. it's possible, by the way, that they're scraping and leveraging things like openai and other sort of closed frontier. maybe they're doing all of these things to get to this, this point. but i think the point is that they got to this point and they got to it clearly with less energy than everybody else did. and ostensibly, for those who actually have now read through the code and understand it, they

would tell you that you can start to build off of this in a much more efficient way than you could before. >> right? and you know that that's that's. >> an. >> important point going forward. and. >> you know, really. >> the question here is, you know. is the world going to need as much compute going forward as as we thought, you know, a. week ago? and, you. >> know. >> at. >> the very. >> least, you know, when you look. >> at the. >> the announcements over the last week, you know, softbank and such 500 billion, you know, the meta comments, you know, upwards of 60 billion or so the. >> the big ai. >> players in the us are still planning on spending right now. and i don't get a sense that they're reassessing that just today. but you know that that's the question going forward. >> you know that's interesting. so do you think if there was a meeting yesterday inside of microsoft, inside of a google inside, you know, you name the company and they said our spending plans again. what does that conversation is that conversation not that there. and by the way, it's not clear to me

that they have to basically say we're not spending $80 billion tomorrow, right? that we've already signed that it's i think the question is more in their in their planning meeting in 2026 and 27, are they planning to spend another 80,000,000,000 in 29 and 30 and 31 the same way? right. that becomes the fundamental question. >> right. and at least. >> what you could say thus far. and i wasn't party to any of those meetings they. >> had. >> if they had meetings yesterday. it's a bit of a space race. right. so you know what what one of the things nvidia said for a while is that, you know, nobody wants to be, you know, the second, the second model that comes out that there's a big question about, you know, time to market. you know, the reason why openai is in the position where it is, because, jeff, gpt came on the scene before anybody else and it was pretty good. and you go from there. we're now in reasoning models. right? so that's kind of the next frontier. and, you know, moving the ball forward on

that is really important. i still get the sense and i think this probably over the next 1 or 2 years, that each one of these large companies is still going to want to be on the forefront if you figure out a way to do it more cheaply, well, of course you're going to do that. and so that goes without saying. but i still don't think, given the table, that given the stakes in ai, that anybody is going to want to slow down and say, you know what, i can save myself a ton of money and i can be number three in the market. that doesn't seem to be where people's people's. >> heads you. i just don't know if it's an order of magnitude. we got to go. but i just don't don't know enough about yet about whether it's orders of magnitude less. meaning it's not just i want to spend less money, it's that i don't even have to spend as much money and i can get the same output or even better. right? that's i think, the fundamental question. we still don't have answers on it. but chris. >> i'll tell you, there's a place we'll find out. the nvidia gtc event in march, that's the that's the you know, the ai event. every everybody is there. there's big keynote by jensen. absolutely positively we're

going to hear more about it then. >> mark your calendar. what date is that. you know. >> it's like third week of march 3rd week of march i forget the date exactly. >> chris thank you for coming in this morning. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> when we come back, rockefeller capital management ceo greg fleming will join us with his thoughts on yesterday's selloff. we'll talk about the fed and president trump's economic agenda to squawk box economic agenda to squawk box will b ♪ ♪ the flag replacement program got started by a good friend of mine, a navy vet, saw a flag at the office that needed to be replaced and said wouldn't this be great if this could be something that we did for anyone? comcast has always been a community driven company. this is one of those great examples of the way we're getting out there. future. the way you see it is

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target prices of top. >> chipmakers like. >> nvidia, broadcom. >> micron and marvell. >> technologies, as well. >> as chinese firm deep sea, open source large language models. >> sparked larger. >> concerns around u.s. artificial intelligence dominance. the analysts. >> over there, by the. >> way, cutting nvidia, which lost almost $600. >> billion in market. >> cap on monday, to $152 target. it was 166. broadcom actually goes which had the. >> record run at the end of. >> last year. right. that goes to. $246 from 265. marvell gets cut to $113 from 120. and then micron goes down to $91 from $0.98. now, all of them sold off yesterday, but they're all up roughly one and a half to 3.5% in the premarket trade. also cryptocurrencies bitcoin particularly back above the 100,000 mark 102878 is the last trade recovering from monday, after the cryptocurrency followed the nasdaq lower on that deep sea driven sell off. bitcoin hovering around that 100,000 mark after that record rally, with president trump

promising a more crypto friendly administration. and by the way, in yesterday's session we got down around 98,000, just to give you some context. and then we're going to end on general motors. those shares up about a percent or so far as the automaker posts better than expected quarterly results. 2025 outlook is also above wall street estimates, even as the automaker continues to restructure operations in china and deal with some industry overall headwinds. now it's going to be big. we're going to be talking to general motors ceo mary barra later on this morning with regard to those results. so mary barra, first on cnbc, 7:30 a.m. becky, i'll send things back over to you guys. >> okay. don, thank you very much. we will see you in just a little bit when we come back. rockefeller's greg fleming is here on set with us. we're going to get his thoughts on yesterday's selloff. the fed and a lot more. squawk box will be a lot more. squawk box will be right back.

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on. tv at wonder ads.com. >> to. >> all right welcome back everybody. the futures right now are mixed. dow futures have turned down by about 35 points below fair value. s&p futures still indicated up by about eight. the nasdaq indicated up by about 49. so it has cut its gains over the course of the last hour and 15 minutes from up 150 to up just by about 50. joining us right now to talk markets the fed and much more is greg fleming. he's the president and ceo of rockefeller capital management. he's also the former president of morgan stanley wealth management. and greg, we always appreciate having you here. great to. >> see. >> you, becky. >> andrew, let's talk news of the day first. and that is what happened yesterday. this massive shift in technology prices and some of those stock prices taking a big hit. is it a buying opportunity. what happened here?

were they overvalued before or did the world really change that much in a day? >> you know, i think we need more facts on. exactly what what happened yesterday. i mean, did this all happen with many fewer chips, or. >> did. >> they stockpile chips and have access to chips? is the mousetrap better? you know, that remains to be seen. it seems. >> to be. >> is it actually that much less expensive? but, you know, becky, my view is that the space is so transformative and there's so much investment going into it that there was. bound to be innovation and progress made outside the. >> us as well. >> and the fact of the matter is, if prices are lower, that's going to pull demand in more and faster and probably lead to even more investment in the space. you know, that's away from the specific issue on chips, but broadly speaking, i have a hard time seeing this as being a major shift in the investment resources and everything going

into ai and what it's going to do going forward. >> i guess the question becomes, is it a shift in who the winners are in this? >> that's a good question. and i think that is the question. you know, i think it's really early on that too. i mean, the reality is that it's a large language model. it's not i mean, microsoft's 84 billion goes way beyond, you know, the eyes and the and the language models. >> so you know. >> is it. and again, everybody jumped on this without even really knowing. is it substantially fewer nvidia processors. is it you know did they did they have, you know ultimately a similar number that they had either bought or stockpiled. is the mousetrap better. is it actually that much cheaper. what went into the numbers. there's a lot of opacity. so i think we don't know the answers. but in terms of the black and white extremes, the extremes of the ends, you have to say it's likely somewhere in the middle. so let's assume that they have some of the highest end nvidia chips, right? but not not as many but not as many. so there's progress. there's efficiency. i

think the bigger issue is that sort of the mother of invention, because of the constraints on the chinese just by default, given that it is harder for them to get the chip, the structure of the code is around not just efficacy, it's around efficiency. and i think if you look at what openai has been doing, you look at what gemini and google all of these guys have been doing, they've almost disregarded the question about, can we do this more efficiently? for now, it was always, let's just leapfrog and try to create progress, and we'll deal with the efficiency question later. this code, i mean, just on a material basis, from what little i understand about it, is, is was as focused again on the sort of efficacy issue, which again, may not be 100% of what openai is, but if it's 90%, it then just raises the question once everybody starts to focus on efficiency, how that changes the dynamic. although, first of all, wouldn't you expect efficiency at this point because there's been massive amount of dollars going quickly to a transformative technology, and you always have efficiency as a focus once a technology starts

to move forward. so you'd expect it. and if the efficiency is actually that much that, you know, a dramatic move, then that will pull in more demand quickly because it's lower cost. you're going to have more users and doesn't, you know, more demand in a in a space that's as transformative as this, doesn't that ultimately lead to even more investment over time? it may shift in. the winners may shift. if there's this very interesting question about the open source of it. all right. so the closed models, i get that now that it's an open model. and we were talking about how and this was sort of the undercurrent of what i was learning in davos all last week. so many ceos playing with open ai, playing with claude, which is anthropic service, playing with gemini and then saying to themselves, you know what, this is really expensive. how much of this can i replicate using llama or some other open source model? and so you have a lot of them already moving in that direction. that is a sea change unto itself that i don't think people are picking up. and now that there's a service that i think best llama. >> but i think the issue with that is it's not just cost, it's

also having control of it, not being beholden to somebody who basically can hold you up for ransom by, well, that's owning all of it. >> you know. that's where, you know, part of the whole sputnik, this notion of a sputnik moment. if this was a software, you know, if this was a company in the uk or in norway, would that have been the reaction? right. you know, from a sputnik standpoint. but i think ultimately what becky said is really the question that is going to come out of this, which is winners and losers, not spacex. i think the spacex will continue to attract a tremendous amount of investment. it's going to change the nature of every single business and how people do things. but what i understand why you're saying that part of it, i think it's a smart question. it's the question. i appreciate the answer. i'm more complicated because if you say to yourself, apple, which for whatever reason decided not to invest in this space the same way everybody else did, and yet they can be a winner. yeah, because they're just going to deal with the edge compute at the end of the at the end of the day. and they don't need to actually build the frontier model. other people are going to

say the same thing. yeah. but that's winners. >> and losers. >> that's not what's going to happen in, you know, the development of ai will continue. there will be efficiencies and companies like this that push. it forward. but the impact of ai on every business and everything that we do and the and therefore the amount of overall level of investment it attracts, i think is still the same trajectory. and that's a little bit, i think satya was saying yesterday in terms of it may get commoditized, but the demand level is just going to continue to rise and that always pulls in more investment. >> and i'm sorry what i meant. held for ransom i didn't mean deep seek doing it as the chinese company. i meant a closed system like an open ai with them hosting it. yeah. like, do you want to be the in control of your own destiny and have a little more ability to see what's going on and running things from an open source perspective? that's right. to greg, let's just talk about the trump administration, the early days here. what are you hearing from business leaders? what are you seeing actually take place? what changes are coming as a result of a new administration? >> you know, becky, one of the data points that i think is instructive on, on the trump

administration so far is the small business survey that came out after the election. i mean, it was an incredible number, the highest leap in confidence in that survey since reagan. >> and by the way, same same story with the business council, with big, big companies. >> so, you know, there are this notion of animal spirits. the last time i heard about a bounce in animal spirits, to the extent we're having them here, is when we started pulling out of the credit crisis. so i don't know what. >> year that. >> really was, but 10 or 11, you know, and people were talking about, don't worry, animal spirits are now back. so this notion of animal spirits and confidence that business has in several things that are clearly pro-business, deregulation and the government pulling back from, you know, most industries in a in a fundamental way, the, the that even the bully pulpit around, we want american business to go and run. that's all in the in the drinking water. so there's a lot of optimism on the business side. and it does ripple through to our clients as well. i mean, people are feeling generally

good from a business standpoint where we are in the united states. as we head into february of 2025. >> great. greg, thank you very much for joining us today. we really appreciate having you on. >> always good to see the two of you. nice to see you. okay. thank you. tom. boeing just out with quarterly results. as we were speaking the aircraft maker reporting adjusted loss of $5.90 per share. street had been looking for a loss of $3, revenue of $15.24 billion. that was consistent with its pre announcement that was made last week. now boeing reporting $11.8 billion annual loss. that is its largest loss since 2020. boeing's c ceo kelly burke will be on squawk on the street with that gang at 9 a.m. eastern time. you don't want to miss it because it's an exclusive interview. they will walk through all of the numbers and try to look ahead at the future for one of america's most iconic companies. squawk box coming right back. >> time now for today's aflac trivia question. in 1915,

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today's aflac trivia question. in 1915 congress merged the life-saving service and the revenue cutter service into what government agency? the answer the united states coast guard. >> welcome back to squawk. president trump speaking to house republicans in miami, where he covered everything from tariffs to deep sea. i want to get straight over to emily wilkins, who joins us with the latest. emily. >> hey, andrew. well, yeah. last night, trump pledged a new wave of tariffs on everything from chips to pharmaceuticals to steel, aluminum, copper. just hours before speaker mike johnson said that congress is going to back the white house when it slaps tariffs on countries that aren't working with the u.s, johnson also said he expects trump to be discerning when it comes to tariffs. >> but i think he's going to be wise in how he does that. i don't i don't think you'll see across the board tariffs. and you know, whole countries or whole industries i don't believe that's what will happen.

>> johnson and trump do appear to be a little less aligned when it comes to deep sea. the speaker bashed the chinese ai, calling it a serious threat to our economy and security. and trump said last night that deep sea was a wake up call to u.s. ai companies. but he took a more optimistic outlook. >> i've been. >> reading about china and. >> some of the companies in china, one in particular, coming up with a faster method of ai and much less expensive method. and that's good because you don't have to spend as much money. >> i wanted in minnesota. >> lawmakers are working today in hopes of finalizing a blueprint for a major bill that will fund trump's immigration orders and expand areas for drilling oil and natural gas. becky. >> emily, thank you so much. up next, gm ceo mary barra on the company's latest results. squawk box will be right back. >> 16 million americans suffer from chronic back pain, the sixth most costly health

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>> all right. lockheed martin results. just hitting the tape. morgan brennan is here. she's got the details on what to expect or what we see in this report. hey, morgan. >> hey, becky. >> good morning. well, it was a noisy quarter for lockheed martin. revenue of $18.6 billion while up 5%, slightly below expectations. eps of $2.22. that

includes a $1.7 billion loss related to classified programs. a large portion of that unplanned that pulled down earnings per share dramatically. so it's unclear whether that is comparable to estimates of $6.65 per share. lockheed cfo jay mallaby calling this de-risking actions that resets our future outlook more favorably now for 2025 gaap eps of 27 to 2730 per share. that was a little light. revenue of 73.75 billion to 74.75 billion. that's slightly better at the midpoint. but mallaby saying missiles and fire control, which makes rocket systems missile defense that that's the star of the growth story. though sales in all segments are expected to increase this year. now, i asked what the top weapons maker expects from the trump administration, including from dodge, which has pressured defense stocks since the election. lockheed's ceo, frank saint john telling me, quote, we've been advocating for multiple years now for digital technology to be integrated into the military space for a separate rapid acquisition process, for digital technology,

that everything that we're hearing are things that we have been that have been part of our approach for the last couple of years. now, i also asked about deep seek and what chinese advancement in ai could mean from a geopolitical and national security standpoint, given the fact that ai adoption is happening on the battlefield. saint john telling me, quote, the ccp has been very clear over the last several years and their intent to integrate their commercial tech in their military space. so we've been partnering for multiple years with companies like nvidia, microsoft, meta to responsibly integrate ai into not only our operations within the business, but also into our delivered capabilities. so in light of that, you can see that shares of lockheed martin are down fractionally right now. and of course, they're not the only ones in the aerospace and defense industry to report earnings today as well. rtx also reported today they had a beat on the top and bottom lines. it looks like revenue guidance for full year 2025 was a tad light.

you can see okay, lockheed martin is now down about 2.5%. last i checked, rtx was down fractionally as well. but in their defense to business specifically, they also talked about the demand for missiles, missile defense like the patriot system, and actually also counter drone technologies, which obviously we've been talking about quite a bit, not just abroad, but even here in places like new jersey. and then boeing. don't forget, everybody focuses on their commercial business, but their defense and space business continues to be challenged as well. >> i think the big question overall with all these companies has to be what military spending is going to look like in the new administration with the changes that we've seen, you've got companies like palantir that have done so well in the stock market with them thinking, okay, we're going to be more technology focused in some of these things. and those questions still remain. what happens with lockheed's plans that have been in there with boeing, some of the struggles that they've had just in terms of making a profit with the military? >> this is the big debate within defense right now, and it's part

of the reason that investors have been selling some of the shares of what are considered, for lack of a better term, the more legacy defense companies, because software is still such a small piece of the broader defense budget here in this country. but it's a piece that's growing. you have been seeing for a number of years now, moves to adopt more technology more quickly. there's so much more that needs to be done. but the debate is really what do you need for the military of the future? how much of this is these new technologies and fielding commercial technologies in a quicker, more innovative way? how much of it is the big sort of, for lack of a better term, exquisite programs that we've been maintaining for a long time and that cost a lot of money. and so that that mix is the debate. >> morgan. thank you. morgan. brennan. all right. now let's get to general motors out with results earlier this morning phil lebeau joins us right now with gm ceo mary barra. phil good morning again. >> good morning becky. and good morning mary. joining us from gm's headquarters in detroit

mary i want to ask you about the start and the outlook for 2025. we know about q4. you beat the street as expected, but it's your outlook for 25 that i think is most interesting because you're forecasting another strong year despite a lot of uncertainty that's out there in the market right now. >> yeah. >> phil, well, it's great to be. >> here with you. >> and first. >> i want to start by thanking our employees, our suppliers, our dealers for helping us deliver a really strong 2024. and as we look to 25, there's a lot of fundamentals in. >> our business. >> that we think are going to allow us to have a strong year. yes, there's a lot of uncertainty with some of the issues related to regulation and tariff. our guidance is making no assumptions about what they would be, because it's really hard to forecast what's going to happen there. but the foundation of our guidance is based on our very, very strong product portfolio. we're offering consumers choice. we have great internal combustion engine products, and we have growing evs in the critical segments. so

i'm very excited about our product and satisfying customers. >> mary, i know you don't know exactly what's going to happen with tariffs, but two questions here. one, have you had a conversation with president trump since he's taken office? and two, if tariffs are put in place to increase what is paid for a vehicle built in mexico or built in canada and brought here to the u.s, how much of that would you be able to pass along to the customer, or how much would you have to eat? >> well, the first question is, yes, i've had the opportunity and actually had a long conversation with the president, and we talked about the importance of american companies and, and manufacturing and a strong auto industry. and also, you know, the importance from a economic security perspective and a national security perspective. so it was a very productive conversation. i'm looking forward to working with president trump's administration as we move forward to understand, because my sense is, is he wants to strengthen american manufacturing, not harm

companies like general motors, as we really provide a lot of good paying jobs in this country specifically related to mexico. we've planned a lot of different scenarios, and there's adjustments that we can make. you know, it's hard to say when we don't know exactly what the terrorists might be or how long they're going to last, what steps will take. but i'm confident that we have many levers to pull to not have as great an impact as some may be forecasting. if there are tariffs on mexico. >> mary, how concerned do you think the president and his administration are about the chinese automakers and what they are doing around the world, which frankly, they're flooding the world with vehicles because they refuse to cut back on capacity and production. and as a result, that ultimately has an impact on you and other u.s. automakers. >> i does, and i think the president is very aware of the situation, understands what's happening. i mean, we're in an industry where i think the industry is strongest when you

match production with demand. that isn't happening, as you mentioned, in addition to some of the subsidies that are happening from a chinese oem perspective. so i think the president and his administration are looking at what do we do to make sure that we have a strong auto industry in this country, again, because of the good paying jobs and because of the technology that's developed her, that can have implications from a national security perspective. so there i mean, really the vehicle now has so much technology on it and is has implications from a data collection perspective as well. so i think he's very much aware and i believe the administration will take the right steps. >> mary, are you bringing more product in from mexico or have you curtailed what your plans are for the first quarter and the first half in terms of your production? >> there we are adjusting production to overall demand. we're not making any specific production schedule changes based on that. remember, there's

some of our plants in mexico supply other markets around the world, and we have the opportunity to balance what serves the american or the u.s. market versus what serves other markets. so there may be some adjustments we do from that perspective. but any adjustments we're making from a scheduled perspective have to do to overall demand. on the electric vehicle side, you are now profitable on a per unit basis, meaning when you're building the vehicle, stripping out all of the embedded costs for developing electric vehicles. so that's a big milestone. but it comes at a time when we may see the federal ev tax credit reduced or even eliminated. can you still hit your target for building and selling 300,000 vehicles electric vehicles in 25? if the federal ev tax credit goes away? >> you know, i think that that may have implications. i'm incredibly proud of the team and the progress that we've made to get to variable profit positive with our electric vehicle portfolio. again, each of our

products, whether they're luxury cadillac evs, gmc hummer and the gmc sierra or our chevrolet products like the equinox, which is the most affordable ev all the way up to the silverado ev, i think are giving consumers choice. and so we've been on this journey well before ira was put into, put into, put into place. we're on a journey to continue to improve the profitability, and we have a strong internal combustion engine portfolio as well as an ev portfolio. so we're going to give customers choice. >> but just to be clear, while you were forecasting sales of 300,000 electric vehicles, wholesale sales at 300,000 electric vehicles this year, if the ev tax credit is reduced or goes away, you may have to bring that estimate down, that guidance down. correct. >> potentially, again, we'll respond to consumer demand. but i also think we have such a strong ev portfolio that for the market out there that does want

to purchase an ev. i think our vehicles are a great option. but to your point, we're not going to overbuild fill. so we will make sure that we align production with demand. >> mary, you guys made the decision last year. when it comes to cruise, you're going to shut down the idea of a robotaxi from cruise, but you're going to use that technology to develop autonomous vehicle technology that you will then incorporate into your vehicles. what types of adoption rates are you seeing from your customers when it comes to super cruise? and you guys saying, okay, we know there's a product here that people will pay for. >> absolutely. we're very pleased with super cruise and its technology. there's features on super cruise like lane centering and towing that really distinguish our products. we're continuing to add features. in fact, we'll be adding additional features this year, as well as expanding the number of roads that super cruise is offered. so we see good progress from a consumer perspective, and we

anticipate over the next five years of approaching $2 billion from a revenue perspective with with super cruise as it continues to advance and we get it on more vehicles, which we think the fleet will double this year. so there's a huge opportunity with super cruise, and we're going to continue to improve it. and then to your point leverage. our plan is to leverage the great talent that there is at cruise to continue to get to l3, l3 plus driver assistance technology all the way to personal autonomous vehicles. so i'm very excited about our opportunity. general motors remains very committed to autonomy. >> when you see personal autonomous or you say personal autonomous vehicles as a goal down the road, are we talking three years, five years? what's your sense in terms of when we may see that type of a product? >> well, i think you're going to see it like like we've seen at cruise and with some other companies. you'll see it in geofenced areas. as the technology continues to get better. so i'm not putting a

prediction. i think we've done that in the past, but we're going to continue to advance the technology and get there as, as, as quickly as we can. we want to be among the leaders as we have full autonomy and personal autonomous vehicles. >> mary, one last question. what's your perspective in terms of the american consumer right now? we saw auto sales hit the 16 million mark basically for all of last year. do you expect that to continue for the industry overall in the us this year? >> you know, we're forecasting a similar industry to last year. you know, we saw a very strong december. january is a little bit more difficult, especially in the us. when you look at some of the weather and the tragedy that's happening with the fires and the los angeles area. so it's really hard to see exactly what the market's going to be this year, but we expect it to be similar to what it was. and i again, i think there's an opportunity for general motors to have a very strong year, build on the strong performance

for 2024. so i'm excited. >> mary, thank you very much for joining us this morning. mary barra, the chair and ceo of general motors. becky and andrew, i send it back to you. >> phil lebeau, thank you for bringing us that important interview, sir. we appreciate it. when we come back a lot more on squawk box. we're going to take a look at interest rates and the real estate market with compass ceo robert reffkin. he's going to be with us in just a moment. and as we head to a break, take a look right now at the futures. the dow up just about 20 points. nasdaq up about 34 points s&p 500 up about ten points a little bit of a i don't want to call it rally. but a little better picture than what we were seeing yesterday after what was a remarkable sell off on the back of this emergence of deep sea, the new ai model. deep sea, the new ai model. we'll talk about that and more at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real.

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same time ai summaries for news apps, which have gained a reputation for twisting some of the news notifications to display inaccurate facts for those who've been playing with it for a while now. apple initially had rolled out its ai features by requiring users to opt in, which slowed the pace of adoption and allowed apple to test new features and ensure it had enough server capacity. users who wish to turn off the ai feature can still do so. go to the settings app. folks, i shouldn't say it's not a settings app, it's. yes, i guess it's the settings button. >> and i think you would recommend doing that. >> i think i don't love the apple intelligence on the new stuff, but i also don't love it on my text messages. yeah. personally, i just like to see what the beginning of the text message. >> texts are usually pretty short. like. >> i can guess though increasingly that people are now writing you longer novellas. and i find. >> some of that i. >> find text is turning into the new email, and i still don't think it's as good as email. i don't know, i feel like we've gone backwards, instantaneous. >> i appreciate that aspect of it. all right. when we come back, i mean, email is too, but i like the i, like i look at my

texts more than i look at my emails. i think that's what it probably is. and i have so much junk mail in my emails at this point. it's like the same thing with the mail that i get at home. i have so much junk mail in my direct mail. i have so much junk mail in my email box. text is much more filtered because not everybody has your cell phone number. all right, when we come back, high mortgage rates and property prices have kept buyers and sellers on the sidelines. but will that change in 2025? we'll hear from compass real estate founder and ceo robert rifkin. squawk box will be right back. >> in a world. >> of uncertainty and disruption, how will your investments stay resilient? >> we've been. >> navigating change for 125 years, always looking forward, anticipating risks and trusted to manage over $1 trillion in assets worldwide. >> solving for the needs. >> of investors today and tomorrow. that's the power of nuveen.

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better odor control everywhere. >> welcome back to squawk box. economists say that the housing market is at its most unaffordable levels in recent history, and inventory is the biggest issue at play. talking about it right now, joining us to talk about housing, mortgage rates, what is actually happening here. compass co-founder and ceo robert rafkin. good morning to you. we were just talking off air just about how tough last year was in terms of just overall volume of sales, what is happening. >> last year, we saw the lowest level of transactions in 29 years, a period where the

population grew 25%. we are seeing is there just not enough inventory this year? >> we are. the population grew by 25%. >> over the last 29 years. >> over the last 29 years. okay, i thought, wow, that must have been a big year in 20 2022. >> yeah. so there's just it's a it's a structural challenge. it's not enough inventory. we are seeing more inventory grow. and the positive news is for buyers with 25% more inventory now than a year ago. and there's a path that this time next year will be at pre-pandemic 2019 levels of inventory. we expect prices to stabilize and grow at 2%. >> how much of the challenge, though, is the new buyer market, meaning people just priced out on one end? and then there's the sort of what i describe as the mortgage rate mobility problem, which is somebody bought a home locked in at a good rate back 4 or 5 years ago, and now really can't move because the rate they're going to get today is much worse. yeah. >> we call that financial prison

for some of these these agents, they're locked into a mortgage rate and they just can't get out of it. right. and so it's a lot better than it was three years ago, three years ago. >> this. but i guess if you were to look at the new buyer market versus the sort of locked in prisoner dilemma, how does that pie chart look? >> it it is more for the locked in okay. >> so the locked in is the bigger problem. >> yes. 75% of homeowners three years ago were locked into 4% mortgage rates or below. so if a year and a half ago when mortgages were 8.2%, now it's much better 7% the delta between 8 or 7 and four is just too much for people to want to leave. it's a financial asset. they don't want to lose it. >> plus, we keep thinking that rates are going to come down. and even though the fed has cut rates, we have not seen mortgage rates come down commensurately. >> and that's the good news. over the last three years, this sentence has been pervasive. i'm just going to wait until mortgage rates come down. yeah. the good news about september 18th, when the fed brought down rates and mortgage rates went up, we don't hear that statement

anymore. and so on the negative side of the ledger, you have affordability, prices, mortgage rates. but on the positive side of the ledger you have the end of the statement, i'm going to wait for mortgage rates to come down and you have more inventory. >> okay. so take us around the country real quick. miami. let's go. let's do miami, florida. everybody was rushing to miami, florida during the pandemic. what's happened to prices there? >> so miami, florida is one of the eight states where there's actually more inventory than the pre-pandemic period. so of the large states, florida and texas are in that group. so those are markets where you're seeing more price drops than any other market. it's upwards of 40%. >> florida has its own issues with the condo resetting, right, with the new rules that require everybody to go in and make good for all the fixes that they haven't done for years. >> exactly. more hoa fees, higher insurance. >> but you're seeing the interesting part to me was it's happening in florida and in austin, texas. >> yes. >> right. and austin doesn't have a lot of those same issues. and so what's happening.

>> is these were the markets the biggest boom markets on the way up. and they're the ones that are feeling the most pain on the way down. >> it's not just off by 40%. >> more than 40% of miami, more than 40% of austin, more than 40% of dallas have price drops today. >> price drops okay. so the price drop is not by 40%. >> it's just the percentage of the. >> total kind of price drops are we talking about. and if you were to project out for those who are looking for property in in austin or in a miami, do you say to yourself, wait another year because this is another 10%? i don't know what it is you tell me. >> i would say this year will be a great year to buy in those markets, but in other markets of the entire country, 33% of the market of the entire country, 600,000 homes have a price drop today. that's the second largest number of price drops in ten years. >> what about new york? >> new york is actually it is moving up. so new york state there. the inventory is basically flat year over year. and the overall prices are as a result up 16% year over year. >> would you go buy on an

investment level or any other level in the palisades right now? if you could. i would, you would. >> i would. >> because you just think it's going to. >> los angeles is still one of the most beautiful places in the world. it will come back in an incredible way. after all catastrophes that tends to happen. it will build more safely. it will build more beautiful. and i have been pleasantly surprised by how many people want to stay there. yes, there. the stories of people that are moving to dallas, austin, miami, orange county, san diego, san francisco or new york and many more stores. >> they're playing us out. most undervalued market in america today. if we if we had this conversation five years from now. >> oh gosh, the most undervalued, i would still say condos in san francisco. >> condos in san francisco. folks, you heard it here, robert. thank you. >> appreciate it. >> all right. when we come back, stocks on the move in the premarket. and later, senator ted cruz will join us ahead of today's hearing on the panama canal. we will talk about that tariffs and much more. squawk box will be right back. >> my clients. >> deserve someone who

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that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families like my own. in the average household, there are dozens of connected devices. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways. >> want to apply to be on cnbc's disruptor 50 list? is your startup disrupting the status quo? scan this code or go to cnbc.com. slash disruptors to apply before february 10th. >> welcome back to squawk. we've got some breaking news to bring you right now because engine number one and chevron announcing a new partnership to develop power solutions for us based data centers running on us natural gas, it's the first of their projects. and part of that

is going to be partnering with ge renova, which is going to deliver energy for ai development without at least the idea is straining the existing grid. the project aiming to deliver up to four gigawatts of power, enough to supply about 3 million homes. operations are expected to begin in 2027, with plans to expand capacity in the future. programing note the ceos of chevron and ge renova will both be on squawk on the street exclusively in the next hour or so. you don't want to miss it. and of course, this also comes on the back of this deep sea news, which of course, is at least creating questions about whether the entire chip and energy market get re scrambled. if in fact, you don't need as many chips and as much energy. fascinating to see an investment in an announcement like this literally a day after all of these questions have arisen, we've been debating whether if you were satya nadella, who came on last week and said you're spending $80 billion, whether you continue to spend it. >> or if you spend it in the same way. >> or you spend it in the same. >> way, you may still have that capex. >> and here are these folks who are who are at least coming out today, given even despite all

this news, saying that they're full steam ahead. so we're going to. >> okay, here's what here's here's what us remember, engine number one is the activist investor that took on exxonmobil and brought them down, even though they had a tiny ownership in the entire situation. how did the partnership between chevron and engine number one come around? was this originally something that was going to be do it or were going to go after you, or was this we just hey, we think we're in the same place, we think we have great ideas and we just want to work together. >> i would love to find out that answer. we'll get to see it, i think in the 9:00 hour. i think engine number one, by the way, has shifted a little bit in terms of what its priorities are. you know, it started out as almost an activist investor doing a lot of things that were very much around energy conservation and things like that. yeah, i don't know if they're still in the exact same place that they used to be in terms of what? >> yeah. or is it, hey, we can do this the nice way, or we can do it the not nice way. but if you feel like you have similar ideas and it works out, maybe that's a different story. anyway, make sure you tune in for the interview. it will be interesting to see it is just

after 8 a.m. on the east coast, and you are watching squawk box right here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin. joe is out sick today. among today's top stories fourth quarter earnings out from general motors, the company topping profit and revenue expectations and issuing 2025 earnings per share guidance between $11 and $12 a share. wall street had been expecting $10.85. boeing reporting an adjusted loss of $5.90 a share for the fourth quarter. wall street was looking for a loss of $3. revenue of $15.24 billion was consistent with boeing's pre-announcement last week. the company's $11.8 billion annual loss was boeing's largest since 2020. don't miss an exclusive interview with boeing ceo kelly ortberg that's coming up in the next hour on squawk on the street. and two defense contractors going in opposite ways after they both reported earnings. lockheed martin is lower that stock right now off by about 3.7%. fourth quarter

revenue missed estimates in 2025. gaap earnings per share guidance was a little bit light. rtx is up by about 2.75% after it posted a rise in quarterly profit, even though the company's 2025 adjusted sales guidance range was below expectations. >> meantime, take a look at futures. dow up about 23 points after what was a very tough day yesterday. s&p 500 also up about 16 points. the nasdaq up about 17 points. also let's just show you treasuries as well. the ten year note sitting at about 4.567. the two year at 4.2. we should probably show you bitcoin because that actually moved lower yesterday under $100,000. on the back of that news with deep sea on the back of all of the big tech companies losing ground today. bitcoin back up over 100,000. about $102,000 right now. closing in on 103,000. i want to get straight over to dom chu, who's got a look at this morning's pre-market movers. dom. >> all right. so andrew becky shares of nvidia right now highlighted because they're rebounding this morning. it's

modest compared to yesterday. but it's still a rebound following that big sell off. as you point out yesterday on that deep sea concern. some analysts like morgan stanley are saying the sell off might have been overblown, even after cutting the target prices of major chip makers, along with nvidia. by the way, remember nvidia lost almost $600 billion in market cap on monday. and for context sake, that's roughly the size in terms of market cap bigger than netflix and roughly the size of unitedhealth. so kind of gives you an idea of what the nvidia market loss was yesterday. nvidia, by the way, now dropping the third most valued company in the world with a market cap of just below $3 trillion that trails behind microsoft in second place. and the openai partner also was hit hard by the deep sea rout just last tuesday. nvidia passed apple closing at $3.5 trillion to apple's 3.35 trillion. apple did reclaim the top title, one of the few tech names trading in the green on monday, but the iphone maker also being hit hard by ai concerns as well, especially with lagging iphone 16

performance figures and sales numbers. so market cap wise, that is your current top three nvidia now below $3 trillion. and we're going to end on energy also rebounding taking a hit yesterday alongside the chip stocks constellation energy, vistra oklo and a few of the names that have been kind of tapped to power ai data centers. but energy needs have been called into question following some of these open source and lower cost model announcements. so becky, constellation, vistra, nuscale, oklo, cameco, some of the nuclear and power generation names that are trying to find some footing. i'll send things back over to you guys. becky. >> okay. tom. thank you. sure. we do have some news out of the uk. in the meantime, britain's antitrust regulator has raised concerns over competition in the cloud computing market and has singled out microsoft and amazon as the dominant players. an independent inquiry group has recommended that the regulator consider investigating those companies under new digital markets legislation. those stocks, as a result, are mixed.

amazon shares off by about 4/10 of a percent. not sure if it's a reflection of this or just what we've seen in the markets. microsoft is up by about $0.54, but this does raise questions about what's going to happen with these uk and european regulators continuing to look at us companies. and it's been something that president trump has said he does not want to see an unfair advantage to u.s. companies. we'll see how this plays out. there has been talk just this week from keir starmer and others saying they want to know why things have fallen behind. i think at davos last week it was a big discussion. what happens with other nations if they're going to follow the same path that the us seems to be taking with the deregulatory emphasis or not, and what happens to business development as a result? after a break, market veteran ed yardeni will join us on wall street's deep seek related sell off. then we'll speak with texas senator ted cruz on president trump's threats over the panama canal.

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>> the fed is set to kick off a two day policy meeting today. this comes as the market faces a tech stock sell off that was sparked by deep seas advancements in ai, or supposed advancements. we're still looking into all of this. on top of this, we are expecting earnings this week from tech giants, and there are a lot of moving pieces to all of this. so let's bring in ed yardeni, yardeni, research president. and ed, you are really good at taking a lot of moving pieces and trying to figure out how to make sense of them. so good luck. here's the mess from this week. what do you do? >> well. >> i think you just. >> stay put in the stock market. >> i think. >> the fed is. >> going to stay put. i don't think the fed is going to be. lowering interest rates. >> for a while. >> the economy is doing great. we're seeing evidence that even the manufacturing sector, which has been in a. what i call a rolling recession. >> is now in a rolling recovery.

>> so that's looking pretty good. >> and consumers. are spending. >> and back to. >> the stock market. >> i think what. >> happened is. >> what is happening in the ai market means that competition is increasing. >> and competition is a good thing for users. >> of artificial intelligence. >> which means. >> that while some. >> may. >> be just. >> one of the magnificent. >> 7th may have some challenges here. the reality is the s&p 493 are going. >> to be beneficiaries. >> of very. >> powerful and. >> and cheap and readily available. >> ai technology. >> i think, by the way. >> that some of the. magnificent seven like microsoft, amazon. >> google, they're all going to incorporate. >> ai into their technologies, into their products. already they're. >> there, they are doing that. and that. >> just means it'll be an upgrade cycle. >> to a lot of the. >> software, and they'll be able to charge a. little bit more. and so i'm not i'm not crying. >> i'm not. >> crying for them. i think they'll do fine.

>> yeah. and i think the question becomes if this is a good thing from the broader perspective. yeah. does it validate the pullback you've seen in the one that really has had the mega sevens. that that has seemed like it has a problem just in the last 24 hours. that's nvidia. yeah that's a really big pullback. and i guess you could argue that the market was really valuing things on this perspective of this was going to be a stranglehold, and nobody else was going to be able to make any progress with it. yeah. or do you look at it and say this is going to increase demand for their chips to broader applications? >> yeah. well that's. >> that's the thing that. always kind. >> of. kills these. speculative bubbles. >> with focus on monopoly pricing. monopoly marketing. >> the reality. >> is that nothing is no industry is more. competitive than technology. these companies literally eat their young. what i mean by that. >> is they create. >> something new and novel and have a very high. >> profit margin. >> and they, they. >> themselves start. >> working on the next

generation, knowing that they're going to obsolete what they just put out. because if they don't do it, somebody else will do it. and we've just seen an amazing example of that, that here they thought they were going to have to spend tens of billions of dollars, and that would give them a monopoly position in the ai market. and some startup in china came up with the deep seek. and whether it's can deliver everything that seems to be promised. the reality is it does increase competition. and even nvidia very graciously said, hey, this is pretty cool. and by the way, you're still going to need a lot of our chips. maybe you don't need the high end chips with the high margins. maybe you can do it all with low end chips with low margins. that's not a bad thing for the for the economy, certainly. >> maybe that increased competition will mean that you are still going to see a massive amount of capex spending because you can't afford to fall behind when it looks like it is such a hot foot race on this, but it could change where some of that

money is spent. and i guess i still go back to the same question. the big selloffs that we saw, not just with nvidia, but with broadcom, with a bunch of the energy companies that were down by more than 20%, whether it's constellation or ge or nova, are those buying opportunities to you when you see this? or were those stocks that were i think, as you said it, this bubble, you know, you know, speculative bubble type of territory, how do you how do you measure it? >> well. >> some of the some. >> of the monopoly valuation multiple has been kind of rerated. right. this has come down some. but i think, you know, these are still amazing companies that are going to continue to have quite a bit of demand for their products. if anything, this makes ai more accessible means it'll proliferate faster, which, and we're still going to need the data centers. we're still going to need the energy. so i don't think the story fundamentally changes. it just becomes more competitive. maybe there's some pressure on nvidia's margins, but that's been adjusted for

basically in one day. and i think from here on, these stocks and the overall market will be driven by earnings. and i think more and more of those earnings are going to be associated with a rising profit margin thanks to ai and other technologies. ai is not the only game in town. there's automation and robotics. and by the way, all these technologies interact. so look, becky, i think we're in a digital revolution. i think we've been there since the ibm mainframe in the 1950s. and the digital revolution just continues to roll on here. we are processing more and more data more and more, faster and faster and cheaper and cheaper. and that's what it's all about. >> yeah. and i think that's a valid reflection and way of looking at things. we saw a big sell off yesterday in the nasdaq, but it was only the worst day we've had since december 18th. so this is not. >> in perspective. >> yeah. and by the way we're still only 4.5% or so off from

the all time high all time highs for the nasdaq. less than 2% for the s&p. so you're talking about really relatively high stock prices across the board. and these. >> are not even not even a correction really. >> not even a correction correct. editor. thank you. we appreciate it. thank you. >> okay. >> coming up in just a moment, we're going to speak with texas senator ted cruz about president trump's first week back in washington and trump's threats over the panama canal. don't go anywhere. big conversation right after this here on squawk box. >> it's an absolute problem. >> it happens all. >> of the time. if you own property, you've got equity. you can be a victim. >> i'm here with. >> art pfitzenmaier, a. >> retired special agent with the fbi and senior. advisor to home title lock. exactly. what is house stealing? >> that's a phrase i think that the fbi kind of coined when they first began seeing situations where people were forging documents, titles and deeds and

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how you live it. tractor supply for life out here. >> don't miss the cnbc premiere episode of shark tank tonight, 9:00 eastern cnbc. >> where do tariffs fit in? >> they are. >> an economic tool. they're an. >> economic weapon. >> the question. >> is how. >> they get used. >> we've reduced our china exposure from 50 to 25%. and we've been working to reduce it even further. it cannot be about removing all the rules. it's about all of us operating together. >> the partnership. >> with openai to us is a critical partnership. we love it. it's working. >> if you use the us. >> estimates of. >> how much. >> power we're going to need, we're talking trillions of dollars and it's all for data centers. it's all for ai. >> welcome back to squawk box, the senate commerce committee setting to hold a hearing today on the impact of the panama canal on u.s. trade and national security. president trump has now accused china of operating the canal and vowing during his inaugural address to take it back. panama strongly criticizing those ideas. joining us right now is the chairman of the senate commerce committee, texas senator ted cruz. senator,

it's great to have you on the broadcast, as always. what do you think the true prospect is of, quote unquote, taking back the panama canal? what would it cost? how would you do it? and all of the questions that surround it? >> well, andrew, tomorrow morning the senate commerce committee is going to have a hearing on on the panama canal and the impacts on the united states. i'll tell you, when president trump first raised this, a lot of people, particularly in the media, scoffed. but i think he raised two very serious issues, which is, number one, as you as you noted that that china has a very significant position in panama. china has leased and has locations on both ends of the panama canal. that gives it observation and potentially control of the panama canal. not only that, but china is building a bridge that goes over the panama canal that gives them the ability to shut down transit on the panama canal. that is a serious both economic threat and national security threat. and number two, the nation of panama is charging very significant

fees, predominantly to the united states, both commercial shippers and to the u.s. navy when it transits that canal. and it's worth remembering the united states built that canal at the cost of over 30,000 lives, at the cost of in today's dollars, $15 trillion. and when jimmy carter gave that canal away, i got to tell you, i was a little kid, but i remember it was it was, i think, shocking at the time. but when he gave that canal away to panama, he did so pursuant to a treaty that obligated panama to treat the united states fairly. and so the hearing we're going to have tomorrow is going to be examining how much panama is complying with the treaty, or how much they are in violation of the treaty. and violating a treaty has has real consequences. >> so, senator, here's one of the big questions i think, that we all have. let's, let's, let's say we can agree or even stipulate. i don't know whether we agree. we don't. but let's just say that president carter made a huge strategic error on behalf of the united states by

giving away the panama canal. let's just say that for, for, for, for the sake of the conversation, even if that's the case, then the question to me becomes, and let's say you want it back somehow. yeah. the question is, can you should it be just quote unquote bought back on a commercial basis? and in fact, if they don't want to sell it, that's just the way it is. or do you believe that we, the united states, should be in a position to either use coercion economically or militarily or anything else to get at that? and if that's the case, then what does that mean for just about everything else that we are doing on the on the global stage? and frankly, what other countries are doing. >> so listen, that's a fair question. and let me be clear at the outset, i'm not in favor of using military force to go invade other countries. i don't think that's the job of our military. but but let me point out, panama is a very different issue from greenland, the greenland. the president has raised as well. and i think greenland is a very serious proposal. i think greenland would have very significant both

national security and economic advantages. greenland is up on the arctic, any any military battle with either russia or china, icbms or potentially military forces would go over the arctic. greenland has an incredibly important strategic position. greenland also has vast critical minerals and resources. and so there are strong economic reasons as well. look, if we were to acquire greenland, it would take likely a purchase from the nation of denmark. it would take negotiations that would be acquiring new territory. so your question of how much we should buy it for, that's a perfectly fair conversation that i'll tell you, i had in the past two weeks with, with the ambassador of denmark. panama is a different situation. the nation of panama did not build the panama canal. america did. the nation of panama did not pay for the panama canal. america did. the nation of panama did not give thousands and thousands of lives in building the canal. america did. and with panama, the question is, are they complying with the treaty? because when jimmy carter decided the

american lives that were lost, building the canal didn't matter. the trillions of dollars we spent didn't matter. he wanted to give it away anyway. at least we got a treaty in exchange for it. and so i think it is a perfectly fair and reasonable conversation to say, is panama complying with the treaty? it was striking. panama severed ties with taiwan in order to get closer to the people's republic of china and america. it is not in our interest to have china have a stranglehold on the panama canal. i mentioned the bridge that china is building across the canal that gives them the ability, if we were in an economic or, god forbid, a military battle with china, that would give china the ability to shut down transit across the panama canal, which would have a massive negative consequence on the united states. and so i'm grateful for president trump for raising these questions. and as i said tomorrow, the senate commerce committee, we're going to have a hearing asking and trying to get answers to every one of these questions. >> hey, senator, two issues, i guess. very specifically, what

did the treaty say? just being treated fairly, or can you tell us exactly what the language is, because it sounds like that is going to come down to what this all means. and then separately, what did the ambassador to denmark say to you? do they sound open to some sort of a deal? >> well, look both questions. the treaty is called the neutrality treaty, and it required them to be neutral, to treat the united states fairly. and actually, tomorrow we're going to have one of one of the witnesses at the hearing i've invited is an international law specialist to testify about what are the consequences of the treaty, what are the remedies to violations? and listen, this is early in the process of investigating and examining these questions. but but i think america ought to be defending our own interests. and when it comes to the panama canal, you've got 75% of the transit across the panama canal. is american transit, either u.s. military transit or u.s. commercial transit. and panama is making roughly $3 billion a year as a consequence of the canal that that we paid for. and

we built them. and so we ought to be vigorously enforcing the treaty. on the second point, before. >> you get to the second point, let me let me just follow up with the first so we don't bounce back and forth. you just said that you don't agree that we should use our military to go take something back by force. but if we say you're not honoring the treaty, you're not treating us fairly. they say, shove it. what? what? where does that leave us? would you then use military force to take some back something if you think they're violating a treaty? >> well, listen, i think there are all sorts of steps that you take long before military force. now, it's worth noting. it's not like panama has a terribly mighty military. if you remember, when manuel noriega was there, we basically toppled him by playing loud music on boomboxes, and that was eugh to topple him and arrest him for being a drug trafficker. and so as a military matter, it's not complicated, but i don't think the principal tool of u.s. foreign policy should be using the military to engage. rather, the principal tool ought to be

enforcing our legal rights using economic rights. and by the way, i think president trump in the last 48 hours demonstrated an extraordinary measure of this with respect to colombia. so you look at the elections in november, we had a clear mandate from the voters to secure the border. and so we've seen in the first week thousands of illegal immigrants being being apprehended, being deported. there were two planeloads of illegal immigrants going back to the nation of colombia. and colombia's president, petro, who's a hardcore socialist, leftist, anti-american, decided he was not going to allow those planes to land. and it was really quite striking. president trump announced, okay, then we will impose 25% tariffs on colombia immediately. within a week, it will ratchet up to 50%, and i've never seen anything like it. within eight hours, colombia caved and said we will happily accept the illegal immigrants back. and in fact, the president said, i'll send my presidential plane to pick them

up. that's an example. we have all sorts of tools of leverage that are way short of military force. >> let me ask you two other questions. as a man of the law and someone who i know talks about the principles of the law, i'm curious. two things that the president has done that i would imagine actually would outrage you, though i don't know if you would actually say publicly, but i'm curious. one is firing the inspector generals, not firing them. i'm not saying that that's the problem necessarily, but doing it without providing congress with the 30 days that are enshrined in the law and describing in detail why does that? is that something at all that upsets you, given that i do know you care about laws that you create? >> well, listen, under the constitution, article two of the constitution gives the president the executive authority, and the executive authority is over. every every officer, every employee of the executive authority. and so the president has the authority under the constitution to terminate people. >> he doesn't. but the law, the law says, as you know, and was actually re re enshrined

effectively a couple of years ago so that there was a 30 day requirement in terms of describing what was happening and, and the time period that seems to that's not it's not seems factually hasn't happened. >> so what i'm saying is the president has the authority to terminate people in the executive branch. and i and i also think inspectors general are incredibly important for ensuring that agencies are following the law. i'm confident the president is going to nominate serious, qualified people to be inspector general. that will do exactly that. >> what about that part of the law? you think that's not that's not a real law, then. i think at the end of the day, i'm looking at this first week of the administration and i'm excited. i have never seen an administration with. >> so. >> much change, so much energy and such a mandate from the voters. >> i'm just asking you about the law itself, because there's actually there's like an actual law and then what's happening, which is which is different. well, i think you look, look. >> we are under a constitution. congress and the president are designed to struggle back and forth, and so we can pass laws putting constraints on the executive. but it is not new for

the executive to press back on congress. and that back and forth was designed by the framers. that's that's part of the checks and balances. what's clear under article two is the president. all executive power is vested in the president. and that's what he's he's exercising. >> senator, there's so much more to talk about. we got to run because we've got data. but i do hope we can continue the conversation. you know, i always enjoyed and i think we all learn a lot. thank you senator. >> i look forward. >> to it. you bet. >> rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago with the breaking data. rick. the numbers please. >> yes. >> durable goods orders. >> now becky. >> these are. >> december preliminary. >> they will be final at the end of the month and probably have some significant changes. durable goods, volatile series. this comes in. >> way light. >> we're expecting a number vaguely up half a percent. we end up with down 2.2%. that is the weakest going back to june of last year. and in the rear view mirror we took the final november read from -1.2 down to

2%. so not good on the durable goods order front. if you take out transportation, a rather dramatic improvement. we go right to the expectation level of up 3/10 of a percent, which shows you where the drag on the number was. and if we look at up 3/10 of a percent, that would be the best since september of last year. no significant revision. now let's look at capital goods orders. nondefense ex a proxy for capital spending comes in strong a half 1%. that's a couple tenths better than we were looking for. and in the rear view mirror, we doubled our november from up 4/10 to up 9/10 and up 9/10 for last month. would make that the best number, going all the way back to january of 23. january of 23 for last month. so that's very, very strong. and if we go from orders to shipments triple expectations up 6/10 last month. goes from up 3/10 to up 4/10. up 6/10 would

be the best level. well for all of 24. the high water mark was january up 1.3. this now comes in at number two. so that's why the equities didn't move lower. the drop in interest rates was a bit subtle on the initial reaction of the number. but once you dig through it it's actually not a bad durable goods preliminary view. now let's point out we have 44,000,000,000 in 7 year notes that will be auctioned at one eastern first day of a two day fed meeting yesterday. of course, with that wild ride in that very intense flight to safety, we didn't see a huge positive impact on the auctions, which surprised me a bit. i mean, the two and the five year were were pretty good, but i would have expected them to be better with a lot more demand on a short maturity. but i think yesterday's volatility really kind of put many traders on their heels. it's going to be interesting to see how the market settles up today. back to you, rick. >> i thought you gave one of those auctions a see, i'm going

back to look at the email. oh see plus you gave to the two year. that's not good. i would not be thrilled if i brought home a c plus. >> yeah. no, no, the two year was a c plus the five year was a b. they weren't horrible, but i would have expected that the two year especially would have went dramatically better. today's seven year reminds me a lot of the 20 year listen, the seven year, the 20 year of valid maturities. but they're just not as aggressively traded. and the liquidity levels aren't nearly as deep. >> okay. >> rick, thank you very much. i do watch your report cards. steve liesman joins us right now with more on this. and steve, with the fed meeting today and that continuing over tomorrow, what will they jump out at them most from these data points we just got? >> well, you know. >> rick really zeroed in on the right numbers. i just want to put a little detail on it, which is the big decline. the big miss came from essentially civilian

aircraft. that's boeing. i think there was an expectation that new orders from boeing would actually be rebounding. at this point. they were down 45% becky. so that's a reason that's where a lot of the weakness came from. you also had a decline in defense shipments and capital goods orders. but what rick did was zero in on the part. the nondefense capital goods ex aircraft. why do we care about that. that feeds into the gdp numbers. and when that was revised up in the prior month, as well as coming in strong this month, it's going to help her flatter some of the forecasts for gross domestic product as well as other economic activity that's out there. so steady as she goes with some variable notion about what's going on with boeing and orders and production at that particular, might i say, troubled shop. but becky, we're looking at the fed today. and amid the uncertainty of fiscal policy and the

persistence of inflation, respondents to our cnbc fed survey, they dialed back somewhat their expectation for rate cuts. still sticking rates are coming this year, just less than expected 65% expect two rate cuts this year. that's down from 78% in december. 61% expect one rate cut in 2026. that's down from 70% 3.4%. that's your new average terminal rate. and that one keeps creeping up, suggesting the fed is perhaps less restrictive at the current rates and 23%. now that's the probability of a us recession in the next 12 months. that is the lowest since february 2022. and after comments by president trump demanding lower interest rates, just 36% now think the fed think president trump will respect the fed's independence, down from 56% in december. at the end of 2025, we're looking at a 3.84% funds rate. sorry, it's a 3.96. that's down. that's up from 3.84 now 3.6 at the end

of 26. so all just a little bit higher across the board including the terminal rate there. peter boockvar with bleakley financial group writes in i just don't see the fed having any confidence right now on how to proceed with rate cuts from here, especially as we await trump's tariff and tax policy. so we asked people about it when it comes to their outlook on the net effect of all expected trump policies. here we go. 5% say extremely inflationary, 59% say somewhat inflationary, 23% say no effect on inflation and 14% say somewhat deflationary. a lot of talk about deregulation and disinflation there. but but they're also viewed as positive for economic growth. 14% say very positive, 46% say somewhat positive, 9% see no effect on growth, and 32% or a third of our respondents say they're somewhat negative. guy lebas of janney montgomery scott, he

writes in and he says reasonable economists can disagree just how inflationary tariffs or reductions in immigration might be, but they are inflationary. but several folks wrote in and said, hey, they expect trump's deregulation efforts to be disinflationary and the driving force of the economy this year and next. that might make theoretical sense. it's just not been tested. and it's unclear how much deregulation can actually get done quickly, all of which is the reason everybody is saying, hey, the fed is going to pause here, wait to see what happens when it comes to cutting rates. becky. >> can we go back to the question you asked about whether he will respect the fed's independence? what was it, 30 something percent said, no, they don't think that 36% maybe. does that mean. >> they think 36% say he will. >> oh, he will. respect okay. >> so 36%. so yeah. >> i guess my question is thinking that he's not going to respect the fed's independence, does that mean they think he's going to issue a whole lot of

trash talk? or does that mean they think he'll actually do something, try and do something to physics. you know, like it's one thing to it's one thing to talk about it. it's another thing to actually do something. and i wonder if our survey got at that sort of question. >> we did not. becky. and i can hear what you're getting at, because it struck me that things have changed. okay. the idea that president trump will jawbone the fed is now normative, right? that's where we're at right now. and by the way, when you talk to people about this. >> publicly, not just privately, publicly, that's exactly what i expect. but i don't know that that necessarily will impact the fed's independence. >> well, what a lot. if you read the comments in the in the that were written and people say this is a year, you could have some fight, some some public battles between the fed and the administration. why? because of

all the reasons i just spoke about, of why the fiscal uncertainty gives the fed pause. trump demanding lower interest rates. be a guy who wants lower interest rates. and i think this issue, becky, i've been reading this morning about whether or not there is research and is there academic backing for this idea that deregulation is, in fact, disinflationary. the incoming treasury secretary said as much that, hey, we may have inflation on the tariff side, but we're going to have disinflation from deregulation. that's a big part of it. kevin warsh wrote about it. and what i'm seeing in the research, becky, and it's probably worth its own discussion, but it's very, very complicated. it depends upon what you're deregulating, what the level of deregulation is. and it's one that takes time. ultimately, yes, it's good for the economy, good for productivity, but i'm not sure it's something the fed can rely upon as being a disinflationary source to offset some of the other inflationary

impulses coming from the president's policies. >> okay, steve. thank you. when we when we come back, congressman andy barr of kentucky will join us from miami. that's where gop lawmakers are meeting and trying to map out how to pass president trump's agenda. stay tuned. you're watching squawk box and this is cnbc. >> in today's always. >> on world, even a moment of downtime can cost your business big. at americaneagle.com. >> we provide. >> 24 over seven. >> 365 monitoring. and support for your applications across all cloud platforms. affordable, customized solutions that work as an extension of your team. we do this all the time. let us handle. >> the. >> risk so you can focus on what matters most. we'll keep your cloud running so you don't have. to contact americaneagle.com today for an audit of your cloud environment. >> here you go. >> is there any way to get a better price on this? >> have you checked single care?

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opera here to tell you about this morning because bill gates has made some new comments about elon musk. here's what he said. microsoft co-founder calling out musk for weighing in on foreign politics, saying in his words, quote, it's really insane that musk can destabilize the political situations in countries now. gates, noting the united states prevents foreign nationals from giving money to political campaigns and suggests other countries should adopt safeguards to keep wealthy foreigners from distorting elections. it's a fascinating take to see both of these billionaires who have been at each other over the years for lots of different reasons. but of course, interestingly, in this particular case, given that bill gates does have enormous influence on the world stage,

and while he hasn't given money to politically in terms of foreign, foreign political leaders and the like, he does work with world leaders all around the world and does make donations and the like to all sorts of different things. and then, of course, making these comments about elon musk and some of the things that he has done and has said and the enormous influence he seems to be having in places like the uk and the german elections at the moment. so a lot of eyes on this, and it's worth going to read the back and forth. coming up on the other side of this, kentucky congressman andy barr joining us on the house gop's push to pass president trump's agenda and a programing note, because you don't want to miss a special interview. it's happening tomorrow. linkedin co-founder reid hoffman is going to be right here on squawk box. we have so much to talk with him about. he's one of the original ie ogs. he was involved in openai from the beginning. we'll talk deseq and deep seq and everything else. you don't want to miss it in the 8:00 hour tomorrow. back after this.

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>> earnings season special coverage all this month on cnbc. >> president trump addressing house republicans attending the gop issues conference at his golf course in miami. lawmakers attempting to plan plan out how to pass trump's agenda, what will be included and how many bills they want to use for that effort. joining us right now from the retreat is kentucky congressman andy barr. he serves on the financial services, foreign affairs and china select committees. and congressman, thank you for being with us this morning. obviously, what's happening right now is, is a lot more than just a pep rally. this is something where you all have a lot of business that you'd like to accomplish. what are you hearing so far or how are some of those plans taking place? well. >> president trump spoke to all house republicans last night, and the sense from. >> my colleagues. >> was that. >> we have a renewed. >> sense of confidence, optimism and, frankly, unity that we've lacked as. house republicans.

>> ever since i've. >> been in congress. >> and president trump. >> has done that. it's his new leadership that has come back. >> to the. >> white house that is giving us this optimism. >> frankly, because our. >> constituents have a renewed sense of optimism and hope about the future. and so we're ready to roll up our sleeves. get to work. president trump has a mandate. and we are going to work to deliver for the american people and make sure that president trump stays on a roll for our country. >> when you say a unity that has been lacking, i mean, i guess you're talking about some of the issues in the last congress, even though republicans controlled that congress, not a lot was done. and it was because you all couldn't agree with yourselves. does this mean the gadflies have been silenced? the critics are kind of cowed into saying, we're going to focus on what we do agree with. >> well, what i what i heard from president trump last night, and what i agree with is that the days of american decline are over. and we if we take this opportunity, this once in a generation opportunity, we can usher in a new golden age for

the country. and the key message from president trump to house republicans last night was if we stick together, we can save the country. we can make america great again, make us more prosperous and competitive. and i see it in the private sector. as a member of the financial services committee, my constituents, entrepreneurs, job creators, main street, small businesses, they have hope and optimism about the future because of better policies, because of the potential of extending tax cuts and bonus depreciation and the opportunities for investment, reciprocal trade that will actually level the playing field once again unleashing american energy dominance. all of this is igniting the animal spirits. and even with competition from communist china with deep seek and i the race and i and i, i respect marc andreessen when he says this is the sputnik moment. i think this competition, we're ready for this competition with donald trump at the helm. and i think he has a unique capability

of uniting republicans around this agenda. >> congressman barr, you have mentioned a lot of things that that have been made, promises that have been made, expectations that will happen. i guess the question is, how do you get it done, though? is this going to be one big bill? one big beautiful bill as the president has described it? is this going to be two issues? it's just a lot to get through. do you have the unity in your caucus to actually push through everything in one bill? how soon will that happen? i guess, you know, changes that are happening already at the executive order level. but how quickly will congress be able to act on anything? >> yes. i mean, becky, as you said, this is not a pep rally. this is actually a working meeting. and today we're going to be having a series of meetings about the mechanics of reconciliation, what the substance will be negotiating within and among ourselves. and we all have our policy preferences, and there may be robust debate and disagreement because we are a diverse conference and a diverse party. but i think, i think house

republicans, under president trump's leadership, we are coalescing around the idea of one bill, one bill where it's a binary choice. you're either with president trump's agenda, you're with the american people, or you're against him. i think that helps us get this, get this done. tax cuts will be part of this. energy will be part of this. increasing our national security so we can have peace through strength and, yes, spending reform so that we can get our deficit under control and send that signal to the treasury market that we're serious about bringing interest rates down because we're going to put our country back on a sound fiscal footing. okay. >> i'm just saying. >> to pay. >> for there's a lot there's a lot to get to. and some of those agenda items are conflicting. it's going to be difficult to do everything that's been promised to cut taxes, and that the president promised on the campaign trail, while also getting our deficit issues under control. but if you're saying that this is going to be a binary issue, are you in or are

you out? are you okay with saying, okay, we're going to get all of this passed, and it's going to mean we are not going to have a balanced budget. would you be in or out on that on that question? >> no, no, i think i think house republicans are in on the idea of a deficit reducing bill, not as scored by the cbo, which has been historically and consistently wrong because they don't score things dynamically. but based on what we agree. >> that the cbo has often been wrong. but, but, but but based on i'm sorry based on what? congressman, it's really loud in the background here. i apologize. >> about what the treasury markets tell us about this. is this going to be a dynamic growth producing piece of legislation? is this legislation going to actually tackle mandatory spending for the first time in a long time, to actually start lowering the trajectory of our deficit? unleashing energy has a growth producing effect which actually generates revenue. so i think we can do both. i think we can produce growth. we can extend the tax cuts. we can even expand on tax

cuts in some areas, like the made in usa, 15% corporate tax rate that the president has proposed, but also get our fiscal house in order with, you know, pairing all of this with important spending reforms, working with doge, creating more efficiency in government. we can do it. >> congressman, if you're saying omb is not going to be the sign off that you use, it's the action in the treasury market. if treasury yields go up then then you're going to say that that's not something that they're signing off on. if treasury yields are down or stable, then that's a complicit mark from the treasury market that they're okay with what you all are planning. >> i think the treasury market is important because it sends that important signal that we're serious about fiscal responsibility, and we need that. by the way, we need to get serious about our deficit in order to get that ten year treasury down. so we start lowering the 30 year fixed rate mortgage. we start lowering credit card debt, the cost of credit card debt and auto loans.

that's as important as tax cuts. and so i think there's a lot of interest in not only growth but also fiscal responsibility in this reconciliation package. >> but i just wonder who's the ultimate arbiter of it's not the omb. and granted, the omb is often not right, but it's hard to find an impartial source that will say, here's what we can anticipate from from growth or beyond. it's been the believed in arbiter. no matter what administration was in place. we've got to run. but omb, you're going to be looking at these things and not what omb. >> the cbo, it's the cbo is what i'm talking about. the congressional budget office, which has been consistently wrong because they don't dynamically score these bills. we need to look at it in real economic terms. is this going to produce growth, actually have a revenue reflow effect because of the investment that will be created because of extending the tax cuts. so that's what we're looking at is the real economy, not economists that don't actually score these things accurately.

>> congressman barr, thank you. it's a longer conversation. we'll talk again soon. squawk box will be right back. >> how's the quarter. coming along, kate. >> he thinks your name. >> is kate. >> and hates when people. >> correct him. >> pretty great. >> define pretty great. >> we added koopas. i powered total spend management platform. so we're finding new efficiencies and multiplying margins. >> so you. >> can mind your business. >> so you can mind your business. >> no, no, that's not what i >> no, no, that's not what i meant. business. it's not a nine-to-five proposition. it's all day and into the night. it's all the things that keep this world turning. it's the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. trust. hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. powering more businesses than anyone. powering possibilities.

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living therma. >> have final check on the markets this morning. we've got the dow off about 42 points, but the nasdaq coming back a little bit after all the questions that deep tech has raised about chips and software and energy up 52 points on the nasdaq s&p 500 up about 11 points. we should probably show you the treasury yield right now on the ten year and the two year. you're at 4.5 on the ten, the two year at 4.2.

let's also show you bitcoin because that's moved around a lot over even the past 48 hours. of course it had dropped below $100,000. now up now at about 102,000. at one point it was close to $103,000 this morning. make sure you join us tomorrow. a lot going on. the headlines won't stop. squawk on the street begins right now. they got a whole bunch of big, important interviews. >> good tuesday morning. welcome to squawk. >> on. >> the street. i'm carl quintanilla. >> with jim. >> cramer. >> david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. the bulls are trying to assemble a day after that deep sea gut. >> check and the. >> nasdaq's worst day in six weeks. >> but it is. >> tentative so far as the market also wrestles with some fresh tariff warnings from the president. and now treasury secretary. robert begins with the eye stock route. >> nvidia and other. >> chip names look to. >> rebound after that deep. >> sea fueled sell off. >> plus. >> gm and boeing are among the. >> companies that have. >> reported earnings. >> this morning. >> we're going