jet. certainly, ai has been driven not by government funding but by private companies. and i think that's going to be the trend. >> okay. walter isaacson, isaacson, thanks for joining us. >> thank you. morgan. >> the boeing musk mashup is one to watch. that's going to do it for us here at overtime. >> fast money starts now. >> live from. >> miami beach, florida. >> at the eye. >> connections global. conference right here. >> at. >> the miami convention center. >> this is a special edition. >> of fast money. >> here's what's on tap tonight. >> on the rebound. nvidia recouping a bunch of. >> yesterday's losses in. >> major averages. >> seeing solid gains. the dow. >> getting within 100 points. >> of an intraday record. so the us i trade back on. >> solid ground. >> we'll talk to altimeter. >> capital brad. >> gerstner to get his thoughts. >> then we're counting down. >> to the first fed decision of. >> the year. >> what will the central bank. >> say about its course of action this year? we'll break down what to. >> expect with morgan. >> stanley's mike wilson. >> and later from. >> big short to.

>> big long, two of the traders. >> known for their bearish. >> bets during. >> the 2008. >> financial crisis, scored. big wins last year by going. >> long in. >> some key areas. porter collins. >> and vincent. >> daniel will lay out their playbooks. >> for the new administration. >> welcome to fast money in miami. >> i'm melissa. >> lee, and. >> i'm. >> joined on the. >> terrace of the. >> convention. >> center by. >> dan nathan and. >> guy adami. >> we may. >> not be poolside. >> this. >> year, but we do have palm trees. >> no, this. >> is a great lineup. >> it's been an. >> amazing conference so. >> far. >> under 6000 people. >> yeah. >> it's fascinating. >> it gets. >> bigger every year. >> and there was a lot. >> of takeaways here. when you sit down. obviously you. >> know what happened yesterday. i know we're going. >> to spend. >> a lot of time. >> on that. you know there's a thousand fund managers here and. all of them seem to be focused on that one issue. but also, one of the things that i found most interesting, sitting in a lot of the sessions. last year, this. >> time, a lot of fund managers. >> were talking about strategies. >> that will do well. >> in a. >> lower interest. rate environment. >> and i. >> heard a lot. >> today of. managers talking. >> about what. >> are some of the themes that might work well in a higher interest rate environment. >> and that's one of the things the push and pull, i think

that's going on in. markets right now. >> yesterday was obviously a fascinating day, and a lot of people sort of in the aftermath, is. >> the. >> trade over. >> or is that an opportunity. >> and i think there's basically. >> some conflicting views. >> at least that's what i got over the last couple of days. but you know. >> it's been an. >> incredible conference. had a move to the conference center. >> it's so big. >> and i got to start. >> this show tomorrow, today. >> and then end it tomorrow. we have an incredible crew here that spent the day putting the set together. they're the. >> real stars of the show. >> melissa lee they are. >> and maybe. >> we'll do a little bump. >> shot at the end. 100% sure. everybody here. but let's. >> get to. >> what we did today because. >> we did. >> see the markets. >> breathing a sigh of. relief after. yesterday's deep sea fueled sell off. >> the s&p rising nearly a percent, the dow gaining more than 130 points. >> while tech. >> stocks led. >> the. >> charge. >> the nasdaq. >> rising 2%. >> nvidia among the best performers. >> after yesterday's. >> 17% drop, surging nearly 9%, recovering more than $250 billion in market value. >> the stock. >> though still trading near october 2024, lows. >> in fact. >> all of the mag. >> seven mag seven closed in.

>> positive territory men and amazon. >> in. >> fact hitting fresh all. >> time highs. >> while apple. >> microsoft and. >> alphabet each saw gains. >> between 1. >> and 4%. >> so what should we do with. >> this i trade? will it. >> drive the markets higher still? >> yeah. i'm so psyched that brad's coming on. >> you're going to introduce. >> him in a second. i think we have differing views, but i'll say this, i think yesterday. >> was a glimpse. >> of what could happen. when competition comes, regardless. >> of whether or not. >> you feel it's viable. or the. >> truth around it. i mean, i think that. >> was a salvo that, hey, wait a second. >> it's coming down. when a. company like. >> nvidia, 77%. margins and at. its peak traded at, you know, 23. >> 24 times. >> sales, i mean, that historically. is a little excessive. and if competition is. >> in fact. >> coming. >> it's not. >> an indictment on nvidia. it's more of an indictment. >> on the valuation. >> yeah. >> and what has happened. >> in today's session. >> it's interesting to. >> sort of see the. digestion phase of it all. yesterday was just puke everything. right. but today it's like, well, who will benefit in this new sort of regime where things get faster, things are. >> more efficient. >> and it looked like software. i mean, software is. >> a big winner. >> no doubt. >> and i think.

>> that was. >> something that was really clear. >> if you're just. >> you know, like taking. >> a look around yesterday, there were. >> some things. >> that, you know, everything opened down. it was. >> not particularly pretty picture. i think it really showed what investors. >> you know, kind of how concentrated this trade was. >> we've been. talking about it. there's been. >> very few ways to play it. >> enterprise software. >> has. >> really underperformed. >> over the last couple of years relative to, let's say, the. >> large hyperscalers. >> and. >> then those. >> you know. broadcom nvidia, marvell joined the party late last year. so i think that you. >> have to kind of broaden. >> this thing out. you have to. >> kind of. think about like. >> who are. >> they going. >> to be. >> the beneficiaries of this. >> you know. >> we. >> highlighted a name like cloudflare. >> it's in the cybersecurity space. the stock was. >> up 10% today. >> some of their developers posted on x. they were talking about how this is the real deal. they've already downloaded it. they're using it. >> it compares. >> very well to openai's oh one mini in the lake here. >> so i think there's going to be a lot. >> of really good stories to kind of focus on that are away from the concentrated trades. that we've got really used to. >> over the last two years. >> and of course, it being open. >> source, it can be used immediately by the 400. plus companies. >> in the s&p 500 that didn't

participate. immediately in this ai trade. i mean, if. >> i. >> can actually. >> be deployed. >> and, you. >> know, we can see the efficiencies faster than. that benefits a. >> broader swath. there's a democratization, right? >> i mean. >> when cost. >> is no longer, you. >> know. >> it's not cost prohibitive. >> that allows a. >> lot of people to get in the. >> game without question, which should. >> work theoretically. >> to these software names. >> but again, on. >> the flip side of that coin, again, not an. >> indictment of the. >> technology or an indictment of the valuation. >> right. >> well. >> silicon valley investor brad gerstner, known for early. investments in meta and uber, owns nvidia. >> the founder and ceo of altimeter capital, stocked up. >> on. >> shares late last year. brad joins us now here in miami. brad, always great to get your take. >> especially after. >> yesterday's sell off. >> where do you. >> stand on. >> exciting times. >> exciting times. it's great to be here. great event. this is. my annual. >> pilgrimage onto this set and i love it. and it couldn't come at a better time. i mean, you know, nvidia today i think you just said trade 20 times revenue. it's trading at 24 times earnings. >> right. >> people talk about the bubble. this isn't. >> what. >> bubbles are made of. >> and as far as i can tell the world's going to be, you know,

have a. >> compute shortage for the next 3 or 4 years. i don't think anything yesterday changed that. in fact, what happened is when you. >> give models. >> like llama. very inexpensive, open source for free or a deep sea, i don't think they'll be 400 us companies using an open source. chinese model that you have to send your corporate data to. >> but let's stipulate that the cost of intelligence is going to come down. that's a good thing. the amount consumed. >> is going to go up. >> i heard yesterday, deep seeks out scrambling to get more gpus to. >> support the inference, because they went to number one on the app store here. >> here nvidia. >> is down 17%. and the company that's causing it to be down is out there trying to get their hands on more. >> gpus to. >> support the inference. >> so i. think there. >> was a lot of hyperventilation yesterday and very few facts. >> yeah. brad. >> two months. >> ago or about a month ago on your podcast, the buttigieg podcast, you guys had satya nadella on the ceo squared podcast. >> sorry about that. >> it's a great podcast, by. >> the way. >> it's you and bill. >> gurley two fascinating investors. >> you got satya nadella. >> the ceo. >> of microsoft on the pod.

>> you asked. >> him directly are you. >> still chip constrained. yes he said. >> no i am power constrained. that to me guy and i were talking about it. >> on our podcast. >> go follow it on the podcast store. >> there are people. >> i know i know well. >> get out of. >> your system. no. >> but we were talking about it at the time and like, this is one of the largest. companies. early beneficiary, you know, investment in open ai two years ago, that sort of thing. and they're not chip constrained anymore. >> well, i think parse. >> the words. yeah. he said i'm power constrained. and what. >> that meant is. >> that he's more power constrained than he. >> is chip constrained. trust me, all. >> of these major companies. >> are still. >> chip constrained. >> there is a fight, the. biggest challenge. >> jensen has. and he said it. >> on our podcast is he all these guys get angry. >> with him. >> and now. >> stargate comes along. we forecast it on our. >> pod that if. >> they build a $100 billion next year in abilene. which is the objective, and i think. >> you know, some differing. >> opinions on that, we think it will happen. we estimated. that's 2 million. >> incremental gpus. the total number of gpus produced this

year are forecast is 6 million. so you. >> have a new. player on the scene who wants to buy 30%. >> of the total supply. >> of gpus. when everybody else in the world also wants more gpus. so again, what what happened yesterday? it wasn't a. breakthrough on the model. they actually built a model. >> that's kind of. >> where openai. >> was 10. >> to 12 months ago, the zero one or the zero one preview model. but there was this idea that they. >> did it for a. >> fraction of the cost. and i heard reported all over cnbc. yesterday that it was 6 million versus billions of dollars to train zero 1 or 0 one preview. i would say my informed speculation is that the cost of training. zero 1 or 0 one preview was less than 20 million. >> this was not a big price breakthrough. >> it's actually what you would expect. >> the cost. >> of compute comes down by about 50% a year. >> so if it cost. openai a year. ago to build this. >> model $15 million, you would expect it to cost seven and a half. and we know. >> they also use distillation techniques.

>> it's not to take anything away from deep sea. i think it's a great thing for the world that we're going to, you know. >> make this. >> cheaper for everybody. everybody's going to have access as a consumer. all these enterprises are going to have access. is not just going to come out of places like deep sea lama is going to one. >> up them. >> i imagine they're going to be other companies like openai and google and others who are going to be open sourcing. >> their lower. >> tier models while you know, they still charge a premium for the frontier. >> right? >> i mean, your. >> words are people. >> should. >> listen when you talk. and i'm one of those people. and you mentioned price to. >> earnings is. >> not only. >> reasonable. >> but given. >> where we've been. >> it's extraordinarily cheap. >> but my. >> concern is in terms of nvidia, they're sort of out earning their revenue. in other words, the. >> margins at. >> 77% suggests that. >> something's got to give. at some point. >> that price. >> to sales number. >> is still. >> for me a bit. >> of a sticking point. so thoughts on that. >> yeah. >> i mean, listen, i think, you know, as an investor i'm always trying to disprove my conviction. and right, like what is the thing that would cause me to change my mind on nvidia?

it's not. >> the fact. >> that we're going to drive down the cost of, of intelligence, because i think jevons paradox, the actual amount consumed goes up. what actually would change my view is if. i thought. >> there was. >> an alternative competitor who could produce accelerated compute in the world, you know, anywhere close to total. >> cost of. >> operation, what they can do. >> so there was a lot of fear about custom. >> asics and tpus and inferentia and graviton, you know, coming out. >> of amazon. >> but what. >> we see is the explosion. >> in. >> demand is. >> so great. >> that there are use cases for those custom chips, but. >> still. >> the number of gpus ordered by all those hyperscalers. >> are going. >> up. >> including google, who uses their own custom tpus. >> so i don't. think this. >> is either or i think it can still work for broadcom, still work for places like astera labs who are in that complex. but you know i'm just looking at the numbers. i don't see the level of competition at the frontier of compute today to nvidia. >> so if. >> this pulls. forward adoption of ai what else does it pull forward? presumably it pulls

forward peak spending. >> peak capex spending. maybe it distributes the gains to software faster. >> i mean, what what sort of changes. >> in this. >> world, the things that get us excited. a couple other themes. one is, you know, people look, you know, we wrote the letter to meta in the fall of 22 and people wonder how. did how did meta double, you know, more than two x their revenues while going from 87,000 employees to 65,000 employees because they were leveraging ai, right. >> every market. >> leader can leverage. ai to grow top line faster, >> accelerate their top line while reducing bottom line. and they're doing it across their businesses. it's accelerating today. the other one in software, we have 25% of our book in software. everybody. last year bill and i did a pod when everybody declared software dead, right. and satya came on our pod and said, maybe application software is a thin layer on top of a crud database. again, got everybody scared about software. software is trading below its ten year average at 5.7 times forward

forward revenues. at the peak in 21 it was 18 times. so i think there's a lot of opportunity in the market today and ai is going to accelerate it. >> you know, you. >> mentioned facebook leveraging. ai manifested itself in the last two earnings releases. walmart's the other company in. >> terms which. >> without question in terms of their margins. any other companies out there that you've sort of noticed? i don't know, tangentially. you just sort of looking that it's starting to figure it out. on the ai front. >> i was just with a ceo here before i came on set, he said. over the last two years, we've doubled our revenues and we've held opex flat, leveraging ai. i think it's ubiquitous. there is not going to be a single enterprise in america that's not leveraging ai. as satya said on our pod to drive their top line and to hold the line on their bottom line. who's not going to benefit? okay, what i worry about is if you're not a market leader and you have to you get your your margins competed away in a commodity industry, even if you benefit right from ai, you're going to compete in a way. it's going to go back to the consumer as a consumer surplus. so you want to own

market leaders. those market leaders can benefit from it and hold on to that incremental margin. >> brad, thanks so. >> much for stopping by. >> it's great to be here. >> hopefully we'll. >> see you before next year. >> our annual pilgrimage. >> by the way, i have to say real quick, all. >> the shows on cnbc wanted. brad to. >> come on. yesterday and he. >> said, no. i'm going on fast money. >> with melissa lee. >> so kudos. >> to brad. >> a lot. >> of. >> people have a great show. you have a great show. thank you. above the show. >> thanks, brad. gerstner altimeter. >> bg squared. >> got it. >> right this time. >> we've got breaking news on the trump administration's freeze of federal loans. >> eamon javers got the details eamon. >> hey there melissa. >> well. >> the freeze is now. >> officially itself. >> frozen thanks to a federal. judge who's just issued a pause on the trump administration's freeze. that freeze was expected to go into effect or is scheduled to go into effect about 13 minutes ago. the federal judge. >> now saying. >> that that will be on. hold until monday as the judge sorts out the competing claims here as. >> to what. >> exactly the. trump administration. >> froze, what. >> legal authority they had to do, that. >> and the arguments. >> presented by the national

council of nonprofits. >> to all. >> of this. so for now, a judge stopping the trump administration's. efforts to freeze funding. to all nonprofits, non-governmental organizations and states, as the. >> judge says, they're going to take some time here to look at this one. melissa. >> back over to you. >> all right eamon. >> thank you. >> eamon javers. meanwhile. >> the. >> house gop conference is also gathering here in. >> miami this week. >> emily wilkins joins us with all the details. emily. >> hey melissa. well yeah, there's one clear theme that's emerging here in miami, which is that republican lawmakers are eager to give trump the backing to do whatever he wants. and that, of course, includes tariffs. speaker mike johnson told reporters that congress will back the white house when it slaps tariffs on other countries. johnson also said he doesn't think that trump will go for across the board tariffs. and shortly after johnson's remarks, trump told lawmakers that he is planning to add tariffs on a wide range of products that includes chips,

pharmaceutical drugs, steel, aluminum and copper. meanwhile, the chair of the select committee on the chinese communist party, john molner, said he is looking at ways to increase tariffs on china. and he also said that he has some of the same concerns about chinese ai deep tech as he did with tiktok, saying american data needs to be protected. but he echoed trump in saying that tech companies also need to become more competitive. >> this is kind of like a sputnik. >> moment where, you know. >> it's a wake. up call for americans to continue. >> to invest in. research and development and. >> continue to lead the world. >> well, lawmakers will wrap up their time in miami tomorrow. speaker mike johnson said that they're going to take some of the first votes next week on a major legislative package to back trump's agenda. melissa. >> emily. >> thank you, emily wilkins from here in miami coming up, much more fast money from miami. morgan stanley's mike wilson

will join us next to lay out where stocks and rates could be heading. >> as the fed. >> decision is. >> less than. >> a. >> day away. >> and general. >> atlantic's martinez jabari says an ipo resurgence. >> is coming where. >> he sees the biggest opportunities, from. >> tech to emerging markets. >> to. >> health care and big shorts. big long, where big short traders porter collins and vincent daniel are putting their money to work right now, and how the trump administration will. impact the broader markets this year. >> all that ahead. >> you are watching fast money in miami live from the eye connections global. connections global. >> conference back in two. at ameriprise financial, we know our clients are so much more than clients. they're go-getters and game-changers, legacy-leavers and visionaries, healers and confidants. the goals that matter most to you matter most to us. helping you achieve them is what we do best. with personal financial advice from an advisor you can trust, and goal-based investing and solutions. it's no wonder we have a 4.9 out of 5

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and i also heard that it can do multiple things with a single command. —with google gemini. let me try it. add recipes with overripe bananas to my “dessert ideas” note. that's what you chose to ask it? i had other things planned. ask how to get up to one thousand dollars off the new samsung galaxy s25 ultra with xfinity mobile. >> welcome back to. >> fast money live in miami. >> beach at i connections. >> the nasdaq and s&p rebounding from. yesterday's losses, while the dow notched at. >> six gain in seven sessions. >> that index. >> now just a half. >> a. >> percent from. >> its intraday high. the gains coming ahead of tomorrow's fed decision on interest rates. let's bring in mike wilson, morgan stanley's chief u.s. equity strategist. >> and chief investment officer. mike, it is great. >> to see you. it's been way too long. >> it's been too long. it's great to see you guys.

>> what's your outlook for the year in terms of the fed and everything? >> well look we finished. >> the year spectacularly well. >> i think some. of that was very predictable. >> the election was. >> less predictable. >> it felt. >> like the market. >> wanted to go there and that we had a little bit of euphoria. >> then around the inauguration. >> we've had a. >> more of a sideways sort of. >> first. >> half view. >> based on three things. first, interest rates are probably still a bit too high. we don't think the fed is going to cut, you know, as much as maybe people were thinking a couple of months ago. and then there's just a lot of. announcements coming out. right. it's not that they're bad or good, it's just uncertainty. and whenever there's uncertainty around politics, you know, multiples tend. >> to kind of come. down a bit. >> and now. >> we have. >> this event yesterday. i wouldn't say it's an. >> event, but kind of a. >> you. >> know, an. >> evolution of this ai spending. and that i think is also. >> going to. >> create uncertainty. >> so. >> you know, 5500. >> to 6100. >> is a pretty good. >> range to think. >> about probably for the first 3 to 6 months of the year. >> but under. >> the surface. there's a lot of. >> really good. >> things going on. i think brad was just talking about it. >> we agree software has been. >> kind. >> of left behind. >> we sort of made that. >> call back in september. that software would. benefit as there's. >> you know, kind of. >> moving from semis to software.

>> that's a big one. >> financials is another. >> area that's been spectacular. >> consumer services. >> and. >> then media and entertainment. >> so there are. >> plenty of things to do in the long side in this tape. >> i mean. >> i the ai trade has been so sort of complacent people. just putting. money there and it just. >> staying there. it sort of. sucked all the oxygen out of the other. areas in the market. >> to some extent, to the extent that. >> we, you know, the action. >> yesterday indicated that the. >> air was coming out of the ai. >> trade and the. >> rest of the markets. >> were. holding up pretty decently. >> i mean. >> your takeaway. >> from that would be, i mean, i would. think the ai trade. >> can. >> go away. >> and the rest of the markets can actually. be okay because. >> money will be reallocated. >> yeah. the breadth is the. >> best breadth. >> we had. >> in like two years. >> and yes. >> it was a down market. now remember unfortunately. >> typically when. >> you get a shift from market. >> cap weighted to say equal weighted. >> or better breadth. >> it usually happens in a down tape initially before. >> the next leg higher. and that's. >> we think we're going to go through. >> that transition. >> there's two things. >> it's an interesting sort of comparison. we think the government has been crowding out the private. >> economy in many ways. >> and so the government. >> we can. >> talk about doge if you'd like. >> but if they're able to.

>> shrink the government and the growth of the government, that can. >> actually. >> be liberating to the rest of. >> the economy. >> same thing for ai capex that. >> has crowded. >> out other. >> it spending and other. >> types of spending. so if that. >> just calms down, by the way, it's not going away okay. if it. >> just slows down. >> a bit, that may free up spending. >> of other kinds, which. >> could be beneficial for other. >> parts. >> of the market. there have been a couple of times over the last year where moves in the bond market rates to the upside have derailed the broader market. it's happened 3 or 4 times. >> is there a rate where. >> you know, maybe it's 5%. >> where things. >> might get dicey for a prolonged period of time? i think that's right. so for 50, we. identified as sort of a. magic number. i mean. >> there's some math. >> behind that. but that's where multiples would start to. >> you. >> know, have trouble. and that that happened. >> we saw the correlation. >> between stocks and rates go negative when rates went. >> through 450. >> when powell was a little bit more hawkish. >> and by the way he's. >> going to speak tomorrow. 5% is a is kind of a magic. >> number where. >> it. >> becomes, you know not just a gating factor in valuations. >> but. >> maybe as a. >> growth inhibitor. >> as well. >> we're not there. but that.

>> would be. >> something that would probably. >> make us, you know, maybe a bit. >> more concerned. that it's not just going to be a rotational market, but maybe it's a. >> bigger correction. >> yeah. >> on the flip side of that okay. so rates. >> going higher. >> multiples get compressed. >> on the we. >> start getting. >> softer data right. >> and there's. >> like more. >> pressure let's say from the white house on fed chair powell to lower interest rates. how do you think about that i mean. because again we have this. situation where fed funds you know is not pricing anything. >> maybe a. >> 30% chance of a 25. >> basis point crates and what n to equities in particular? will it kind of reignite a broader rally? >> well. >> i mean look, i mean they cut rates. 100 basis. >> points and the back end. >> went. >> out right. so in. >> many ways i think powell front loaded the rate cuts. some of that was probably. >> just to get ahead of. >> the. >> election, you know didn't want to look too political. and now. >> he's just saying look we're going to wait. he's not cutting tomorrow. they're not cutting tomorrow. >> maybe they. >> cut 1 or 2 more. >> times this. >> year over the course of six months. >> but i mean, i think jay. >> powell. >> seems he seems. >> pretty strong. i don't think he's. >> going. >> to cower to political

pressure to do the wrong thing. front end loaded the rates. >> i think there'd. >> be i think the markets would be very upset if he were to cut rates under pressure, and then the back end actually goes out because. >> we don't need a rate cut.efu. >> with, you know. >> front loading, more rate cuts for obviously for political pressure. but even just because they're trying to, you know. they're trying to juice the market that, that that would not the bond market would not like. >> that in my view. >> what do you think is the biggest wild card when it comes to the bond market, when it. >> comes to the trump. >> administration and its policies? >> i mean, a lot of the. >> policies seem inflationary. >> if rates do come. >> down, it could. >> be it. >> could spur. >> economic activity, which could stoke inflation. i mean, is. >> there. >> any risk of the fed. actually raising or we should be concerned. about inflation rearing its ugly head again. >> right now? i'd say no because i. >> think i mean, look. >> the economy is doing fine. but remember this gets back to. >> the doge. >> if they shrink the government, okay, they're. >> going to have. probably a disinflationary. >> force on. >> the economy in many ways. >> right. so i'm not as worried about inflation getting out of control as i am about. maybe growth concerns coming back

right now, we're kind of in a sweet spot. you know. >> below. >> 450 would be better. but you know, 465 isn't the end of the world. you know, we're we're probably trading kind of where we should be. and i like the best right now is that the market is. is new. things are popping up. it's not just seven stocks. and as an investor that's way more exciting. >> all right mike great. to see you. thank you. you too. >> mike wilson of. >> morgan stanley. more than just eight stocks in your view. >> faithful eight. mike i'm not bringing the guest back here. but when broadcom. >> joined the party. >> i mean and i think yesterday's really i'm glad you teed me up there. i mean. those eight stocks the fate of the market was really in them. so if you want to talk about a broadening out i know we've done that a bunch over the last year or so. it was bullish that there was so much money that came out of those. yesterday the s&p outperformed in that way. those eight stocks are like 2,530% of the s&p 500. so i guess there is demand for some of these other stories. and so again, valuations. >> being the silver lining. >> in this. >> i've been trying to be you know we started this year and i told you i was fairly neutral on the markets here. i am worried about the concentration i am

worried about the you know, the kind of valuation turns that we've seen to the upside because of this euphoria in and around this theme. i think yesterday probably took a little air out of that. >> we're going to have vinnie and porter on. >> and if you recall, when they. >> were on in june. >> on fast money, they. >> said make. >> volatility great again. >> and they were spot. >> they were always spot on. >> but over the last couple of weeks you've seen glimpses. >> where volatility. >> is going to. >> be a story. >> and it listen it was a one. >> day. event yesterday i get it. >> my sense. >> is you're going to. >> see a. >> lot more. >> of that going forward. >> all right. >> coming up, general atlantic's martin escobar joins us next where he. >> sees the biggest opportunities in tech. >> emerging markets and why he says the ipo market could be. >> about to heat up. >> you're watching fast money in miami live. >> from the eye connections. >> global alts conference. we're back in two.

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navage trusted. >> by millions. >> before navage? i was not living my best life because i could not breathe. constant nasal congestion, constant blowing of the nose. the huge difference is the fact that navage pulls it out. it's very gentle in the sense of when that suction happens, it's literally grabbing that water and that mucus, and it's bringing it out into this tank. it's worth every penny that you pay for it. this product changed my life. >> available at major retailers or online@navage.com. >> for me. squawk box is breakfast with the most interesting people in the world. >> it's a. >> privilege to. >> get to talk to them. >> every day. >> it's more. >> entertaining than any. >> other. >> morning show, but. >> you might get. >> some useful information. >> squawk box weekday mornings, 6 a.m. eastern. cnbc. >> we've got a news alert out of the trump administration. >> eamon javers has got the details. eamon. >> hey there melissa. the trump administration is offering what amounts to a buyout to all federal workers. in an email

going out to the federal workforce this afternoon, the trump administration is saying that if they offer their delayed resignation this week, by february 6th, then they can continue to receive all of. >> their. >> pay and benefits until the end of. >> september. >> even though they won't be required to. >> do any. >> work between now and then. so that's sort of the carrot in this carrot and stick effort. in order to make federal. >> workers leave the workforce. >> they will be able. >> to collect all. >> of their pay even though they're not. working until september 30th, according to the. >> email sent. >> out today. >> a senior administration. >> official saying that they expect 5 to 10%. >> of the federal workforce. >> to take. this buyout offer. they say it could. >> lead to. >> $100 billion annually in savings for the federal government. once they clear that group off the payroll of the. federal workforce. so all of this part of the carrot, the stick, of. >> course. >> is the return to office mandate that the trump administration has put in place. so the federal workforce here

getting. a bit of a shock to the system, melissa, they're not used to being dictated. >> to. >> this way, but. >> and this is. >> something that we really haven't seen before. interestingly, in the. email it says if you want to accept this offer, simply hit type the word reply in the email and hit send. >> well that's efficient eamon cnbc.com also is reporting some news out. >> of the navy. >> yeah that's right. >> it's related to deep sea cnbc.com has gotten ahold of a. memo to all sailors in the navy that was sent out on friday. in which the navy. >> says that. >> sailors are not allowed to use deep seek either for work or for personal purposes. they're obviously concerned about the chinese ownership of deep sea. the navy is warning. >> saying, we would like. >> to bring to your attention a critical update regarding new and new ai model called deep seek. the memo says it's imperative that team members do not use deep seek ai. for work related tasks or for personal use. so that's an interesting response from the federal

government. >> as well, melissa. >> and we may see that roll out through the entire military defense industrial complex. >> yeah eamon. thank you eamon javers in washington. >> the ipo market has been ice. >> cold since a record setting 2021. >> but our next guest says that. >> is about. >> to change. he's working with 30 companies he thinks are ready to go public right now. >> martinez jabari is the. co-president and head of. global growth equity at. >> general atlantic. >> martin, great to see you. great to see you. welcome to fast money. >> so what has changed in the environment. is it the new administration? >> is it just the cycle? >> we are in the market. >> yeah. >> we've been without an ipo market for three and a half years. this is the longest this century. the second longest was 18 months. >> starting in. >> march of. >> 2000 after the.com. >> there's about 3000. >> companies waiting to go public. that drought has been great for growth equity because the pricing for. >> private companies. >> ready to go public who have not been able to access capital, has meant opportunities for us for the ipo market to open. historically, looking through the cycles, three things need to be true. you need to have at least. >> 18 months.

>> of positive market performance, two years ripping. you need to have vix low and relatively stable. check. >> third, you need. >> a handful of ipos to pop. that hasn't happened. our bet is it will happen. and the ipo market will be back. roaring in 2025. now i think the ipos will be different in my in my 25 year track record of investor experience as an investor, there's only been two periods where. >> small companies. >> can do successful ipos. >> 2020 21. so 2021. >> we'll see it again. i think the ipos of 2025 will be larger, profitable, predictable, great companies, and we've got a handful that are eager to. >> go and. >> 20 plus that are ready to go. >> what do you think the investor appetite. >> is for certain. >> kinds of ipos certain kinds of industries. >> has anything. >> changed because. >> of yesterday's rethink. >> about ai and deep sea, in terms of the portfolio companies that you. >> have right. >> now that. >> focus on. >> ai and technology? >> i'm excited about. >> the news of yesterday. i mean, it's the talk.

>> of town. yeah. >> you guys are tired of talking. >> about ai? >> no, not at all. >> intelligence came down. that's good for the world. >> and what we're. >> seeing is. >> all our portfolio. >> companies are. >> using ai for to cut costs, to drive productivity, and roi is already there. >> the next. >> generation of ai is. the application layer. after five. years of sort of venture bets and the application layer, we're finally seeing. >> companies that. >> are leading that are creating new services. using ai models, proprietary data, software that works better. we just did three major investments in ai. i think the next 2 to 3 years will be very exciting on the application layer, and i think investors will look for that. >> martin, you just mentioned profitability. >> that's something that. >> should be. >> a key metric when you're going public. >> what are some of the other metrics you think investors should focus on, or some of the things that you guys are focused on? that kind of takes a lot of boxes. and signals that this company is ready. >> to go public. >> yeah. >> listen. >> when. >> we look at investing and i think public market investors are. >> no different. the size. >> of the market, the size of the price. we want. companies that are. going after vast

companies. we are companies that are. >> profitable. and we want companies. >> whose profitability. has moat. is it defensible? do you have true competitive advantage or are you just experiencing profits, temporary profits because you were first mover. but that's not defensible. so i think you want large markets and defensibility of profits in addition to profits. >> let's switch gears to emerging markets because that's something you like. you know, argentina, a lot of people are going to be talking about that for years to come. and there are many chapters left. but on the margins. incredible success story. the flip side of the coin is brazil. you saw me looking at it. we're at a ten year low in the us flirting with a 20 year low. is there a potential turnaround in that part of south america? >> we've been investors in the emerging markets for 22 years, and for 22 years. >> we've made more. >> roi, more irr. >> in. >> the emerging markets. >> and developed markets. it is tricky. >> it is. >> harder if you. >> go back. >> 75 years today, we are at the highest discount for emerging markets that we've ever seen,

75%. we haven't seen it since world war two. you can buy the entire country of brazil for seven times earnings. >> it's pretty. exciting times. >> it is. >> risky, but i. >> think at. >> seven times earnings you get your money back in dividends. >> and 4. >> or 5 years i think you're doing okay. >> martin. so great to speak with you. thank you. >> thank you. great to. >> see you. >> martin escobar of. >> general atlantic. >> good guy. >> trading the globe. over there. >> i mean, tim. >> seymour rubs off on all. >> of us. i know, but you know one thing. and again, i'm not going to kind of jump the. >> guys here from sea wolf. but. >> you know, you were on stage with him earlier today and they're starting to look, you know. far afield here. and i think that is going to become as you're looking for value in the public markets, as the concentration in some of these names that have seen crazy multiple expansion here, i think there's probably going to be some great opportunities outside the us. >> all right. >> we've got an earnings alert here on starbucks shares just turning lower in the. after hours after the coffee. >> chain's latest. earnings report. >> it was brian nichols first full quarter since becoming. ceo in september. cnbc's courtney. >> reagan. has got all. >> the numbers caught. >> hi, mel. good to see you. so the coffee giant did beat on earnings by $0.02, slightly on revenue to total same store sales lower for the fourth

straight quarter, but also coming in better than expected at down 4%. >> china comparable. >> sales down 6%. transactions overall down 6%, average ticket up 3%. and then on the call, which is ongoing right now, nicole discussed his back to starbucks strategy. he's talking about investing in the staff, processing and technology, all to get back to that four minute delivery promise. and nichols noting quick changes that they've made, including 40% fewer discounted transactions in this most recent quarter, also eliminating the extra charge for those nondairy milk customizations. but, he notes, plans to further simplify the menu. he wants to reduce beverage and food skus by 30% by the end of fiscal 2025. he also sees opportunity to potentially double stores in the united states. coffee condiment bars those are coming back, along with ceramic mugs and free coffee refills for customers dining in. remember, starbucks is sort of that third place location. still no full guidance from the company. they suspended it when nicole came in, but the cfo did note at least some puts and takes expected in the

current quarter here and there. so maybe the analysts can work a little bit off that. brian nicole will be on squawk on the street tomorrow. he's going to discuss the quarter of course and a strategy for the turnaround. so make sure to tune in to that. but melissa back down to you in miami. >> all right. >> court thank you. courtney reagan on starbucks. and again we're watching. >> this very closely. i mean making. >> the experience much better. >> making the story can only be better. it can only be more efficient. >> well and i'm not trying to be wise, you know that's true. >> yeah. you and you go. >> to starbucks. >> almost every. >> single day. when you're on. >> you get other people. >> yes. to get everybody. >> not for. >> myself, i know. >> however. i mean, if you look, comps were lousy, but. >> they. >> were better than feared. but margins were. >> down. >> about 20 basis points. that is going to be. >> a problem. >> and if our crack staff in dc. and they are a crack staff can look at a five year chart. >> i mean, we've been in a pretty significant. downtrend since the summer. >> of 2021, which we have not broken. and i fear that this little pop we've. seen is going to be sold off. >> so it's. >> not a disastrous quarter. >> i don't think it's.

>> good enough though. >> yeah. >> and again, you're. >> going to have to give him a little time. but but. >> the stock had that. >> huge gap this summer. so it might have pulled forward a lot of that. so if you talk about doubling market costs and reducing discounts that might be a bit of a disconnect here. it might kind of weigh on margins also. >> all right. >> coming up big short traders porter collins. and vincent daniel will join us to lay out the under the radar market impact from the trump administration. fast money. >> live from the i. >> connections global alts conference in miami continues conference in miami continues into. ehh... hmm. oh, that's very, uh... - right? - mmm... this store doesn't have agentforce, so an ai agent didn't tip off the stylist as to what i might actually wear. - yes. - oh. that's a commitment. [glass knocked] hey bud! whaddaya think? you know, people can see you out here. ha ha ha ha, yeah, yeah, right, right, ha ha. love you, too. agentforce helps retailers prevent fashion fails. it's what ai was meant to be. ♪♪

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empower. platform. become a smarter investor with the power of cnbc pro, go to cnbc.com slash get pro now. >> welcome back to fast. >> money live from the eye connections global alts conference in miami beach. vincent daniel and peter collins are known for shorting the. >> housing market ahead. >> of the financial crisis. their story was documented. >> in the best selling. >> book. >> the big short, which became a. >> feature film. their current firm. >> seawolf capital. >> is coming off a. blockbuster year. vinny and porter join. >> us now. guys, great to see you. >> great to. >> be back. and when i say blockbuster we're talking 66% returns last year. >> so what did you. >> do last year to get those 60. i mean what was it that got you there and where are you now? so. >> you know, we had a good year coming into the election. >> and if you.

>> think about the way we. >> invest. >> you know, people always think we're. >> bearish. >> which. >> we can be. we can be. >> we can be bearish. >> yeah. but you. >> know you got to think. >> in. >> terms of probabilities right. >> and we thought that. you know trump had a. good probability not a political statement. it had a good probability of winning. and you know and then you take. that to well if he wins, what are the stocks. >> that go up. >> the most and possibly fall the. >> least if he doesn't win? >> and so vincent came on this show, pitched fannie and freddie. >> preferreds. >> which more than doubled. you know, i. >> pitched a. >> stock that more. >> than doubled. you know, not not not a lot of downside. >> a lot. >> of upside. and so. >> we sit. >> here and. >> we're scouring. >> the globe and everyone's. >> losing brain cells around. >> ai. >> all that stuff. and how. >> do. >> we make. >> easy money. and that's that's. >> that's our focus right now. >> i mean, you actually said. on stage during our big short. >> panel today, i. >> we don't want any part. >> of that trade. stay away. okay. >> you have brad on before. >> yeah. >> the last thing i want to do

is upstage him. i'd look. >> like an idiot. it's the world's most crowded trade at this point. and you and you. >> are contrarian investors. >> so where are you? >> where are you going now? >> well, actually, we're a little bit i in the fact that. >> okay. if you look at the cheapest. >> stocks in. >> the world. >> you do. >> screens. >> they all show up in emerging. >> markets, right. and we. >> pitched, you. >> know, brazil. >> and chinese stocks and came up and said, and everyone. >> hates these. >> chinese stocks. alibaba, which is i came out and. >> said that their. >> model is better than. >> deep tech. >> and i didn't know what deep >> you know, still don't. but, you. >> know, you. >> can win a lot. >> of ways to win. with the stock. >> trading at four and a. >> half. >> times earnings. that's cash right. and the famous question we asked ourselves. >> what if it goes right. >> right. >> can it trade. >> to 15 times. that's a that's. >> three x. >> our money right. >> and so that's the type of. >> thing we're looking at. we

get excited about and. >> saying wow this. market's really cheap. everyone talks about how. expensive things are but go. >> to brazil. you talk about just the guest. >> just add on. >> 10% dividend yields. >> in the index right. >> and so. >> where can we make money. >> that's that's. >> where everyone else is not looking. >> you know vinny with melissa your panel's been the highlight the last couple of years at this conference. and when you were on the show in june, our show you talked about and i and i teased it make vol great again. and you know, we've seen at least 5 or 6 different. times over the last 8 or 9 months where it has been great. they're one day events. i think you're going to start to see more prolonged events. what are your thoughts? >> oh, absolutely. and i think i said on the panel today that the straw that stirs the drink is. president trump like it's no longer the fed. it's the it's. and look we've seen it today. we've seen it. we've seen it for seven days so far. he comes out and moves markets. and it's our job to not to be extremely objective and to try to determine where the puck is going. in many respects, what he wants is pretty clear. like,

like in terms of american exceptionalism, whether he's going to use. >> tariffs or not, in terms of agreements. >> our view. >> is that. >> hopefully we can take advantage of where we think he wants to go and what is most probable of what he's going to get done. so talking about the emerging market trade, in order for this to work and in order for american exceptionalism to work, the dollar has to weaken, in my opinion. right. and if the dollar starts to weaken, we're going to start. a lot of people are going to start looking at emerging market stocks relative to owning 15. the top 15 names. and this is where we see value. and i know value is a four letter word for a lot of people these days. but in general that's the that's the. crux of our analysis and in our process. and then from there we go from determining rates to change. and that's where we see the biggest opportunity. >> porter. >> you just heard martin general, one of the most successful vc firms, i. >> think, of the last. >> 30 years or so. >> they're excited about the ipo market reopening. how do you feel about. m&a and the potential for deregulation in some sectors? do you think that

will be a big theme in 2025? >> i think. it's the deregulation is probably bigger than people can can wrap their heads around. and so, you know, steve. >> talked about in the panel, there's going to be. >> a lot of bank m&a coming this year. >> steve eisman. >> yep. steve eisman sorry. our old boss. >> and you know there's. >> oil and gas is a lot of deregulation coming. there's already been a lot of mergers in this stuff. and so i think you're going to see a lot of m&a happen. i mean they last year they they stopped. >> the you. >> know. >> the. jetblue merger. with spirit. >> stuff like that's probably going to go through. >> and so. >> i think you're going to see a lot more of this, a lot more business friendly. and that's why. >> you know we're. >> pretty bullish. and the. >> stuff that we see. >> you know we have more. >> ideas than capital. and there's just a lot of stuff. >> that we see at outside. >> the top. >> 15 names. and it's. >> pretty exciting for us. >> after a year like last year, though, i. >> would imagine. >> that that people. >> are knocking at. >> your doors. >> i mean, you mentioned. >> not you have. >> a lot of ideas. >> and not enough capital. capital is all around us here at

this conference. >> i mean, we're the. >> professional guys here. >> i mean. you know. >> the fact of the matter. >> is. >> we actually really enjoy running our own money. and look, if we were to open up, we would look for a partner that actually agrees with us. our process does produce volatility in our in our in our return streams. and so you have to accept that we've learned to accept it and deal with it. but you know, it's funny walking around this conference while all the people are looking for capital. >> we got. >> about like 5 or 6 stock ideas from people who are coming up to us saying, hey, you idiots, did you know these 3 or 4 names? right. >> and we're like. >> no, i've never looked at this. and then and that starts. our work that we need to do to see whether we're. >> going to. >> get a. little notebook. right? >> yeah, absolutely. >> and all that you're talking. >> when we were walking through the halls, you're also telling. >> me about fti. >> which is a stock that we talk about. >> on the show. we talked about. >> it. >> when it was going straight up, and then we talked about when it went straight down on the back. of the muddy waters. short report. where are you now on that? >> well, we. >> sold the. >> stock and at. >> 20 something dollars. >> and it it. >> went up ten x. >> on us. we, we doubled.

>> the money, we were high fiving each other and. >> then it. went up. >> ten x. >> and so we knew the name. and you. >> know. the short report caused. >> a lot of volatility. we like volatility. >> so the stock. >> went from 200. >> to $75 and. >> it's $75. >> we knew the stock. we underwrote. >> it pretty quickly. and we said you know we think this is a little bit overblown. >> and we. >> bought the stock. and so that's. >> the that's. >> the opportunity of being small and nimble and. you know, constantly reevaluating the process. >> last question because we're out of time unfortunately. but your take on what the fed could possibly do this year, i thought was really interesting because i feel like that is something that investors are not at all baking in. i mean, i asked mike wilson of morgan stanley, do you think there's a chance that the fed raises rates? and you said on stage that you thought that there was a chance? >> it depends. >> right. >> so if trump's policies creates a very pro-growth agenda and we do see economic growth, i think six months from now, there's a higher probability than what the market is expecting that we will be. talking about thinking about

raising rates. it's possible, but that's. >> six months from now. >> i don't think that's a two day event. >> there's a lot of road to go down. >> yes. it's not as simple as it was in, you know, 2022 where. we knew they were going to hike rates. right, right. >> that that. >> that was easy. this is a little. >> bit harder. >> right now. >> always great to get your guys perspective. thank you so much. >> awesome. thanks for having. >> us on. >> they are fun people. >> people i mean, when they see these guys with. >> steve and. >> danny run after them in the hallways. >> it's like share four of them. >> share. it's like four shares. >> like four shares. >> that's the worst analogy. >> i did not. >> think that's where you were. >> going. >> with that one. but you know it works. quite talented though. >> it's funny. >> you know these guys come on. we've known them for a while. they have that great track record. >> they seem pretty. >> objective all the time. the really fun actually outside of the markets and stuff like that. so very excitable to. >> try to be. yeah. >> thanks guys. >> thank you. >> appreciate it. coming up, a few fast movers catching our attention in today's session. how the traders are handling the moves in gm, lockheed martin and

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moving that caught our attention today. we'll start with general motors. shares of the legacy auto maker tanking. despite posting better than expected results for the quarter. concerns over potential tariff impacts and changes to ev pricing driving the stock to its biggest drop since early 2020. dan. >> you know it's interesting. again, tariffs has become a thing now. and i think the guys were just talking about the potential for volatility around uncertain policy. that's not something we're really focused on i guess for the last few years. but you see a company like this, the way they performed over the last year at least the stock you say to yourself, okay, they got to kind of knock the cover off the ball. i think the guidance was a little lacking. there's uncertainty around policy. i see why the stock was down 10% on those numbers. >> it's interesting because obviously tomorrow is tesla's earnings. so this will be compared, you know, in terms of what they say. >> about. >> 100% and the commentary around that. and to, you know, danny's moses point on stage. >> with. >> you today. >> it's going to be interesting if interest rates come. >> up with. >> elon musk. so that's

something to watch. >> for because he has talked about high interest rates hurting his business before. so could it happen again? take a look at shares of lockheed martin. that stock plunging after missing on revenue issuing disappointing guidance. the defense name seeing its worst day since october 2021, hitting its lowest level since last july. we actually had raytheon i think to out disappointing so. >> well, you know these stocks all got the benefit of. >> the doubt. >> spring of last year. into the fall. and then when it became clear that candidate trump. looked like he was going to win from the election on disastrous. >> for myriad of different reasons, what it means. is they're no longer. >> getting the benefit of the doubt, and the market is now focused on that guidance. valuation is fine. >> but the. >> i. >> guess some of the feelings around this whole space is sort of squishy right now. >> and cruise line royal caribbean trading at all time highs on the back of an earnings beat the company issuing strong guidance, saying it expects increased demand in the coming year. carnival norwegian cruise lines catching the wave both up about 8%. this really shows dan that the consumer is out there he or she is spending. >> yeah, we've seen it in the

airlines too, right? some of those names have gone parabolic. i think the most interesting takeaway there and i know guy you're going to be excited about this is that royal caribbean. they're entering the river cruise market. >> guys are waiting for. >> which is something that i think. >> you're probably looking. >> forward to. yeah yeah. yeah yeah. up next, final trades. >> ready for the big meeting? >> i have to write this. >> project plan. >> i just need to reply. >> to. >> 40 emails. >> every day. your team gets sucked into endless writing tasks, and every day hours disappear for everyone except pam. hey, pam. because pam uses grammarly's ai to write in a few clicks, not a few hours. it's one seamless experience everywhere, and it works for the whole enterprise. that's why 70,000 teams trust grammarly. 70,000 teams trust grammarly. >> it was lost in the he looks down at his queen, and says... (in atrocious french) au revoir mon amour. a bientot let's work on that french, shall we? (♪♪) au revoir mon amour. a bientot

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>> you're the man. look at alibaba. >> melissa lee i will. and hi derek thanks for flying in. thank you for watching fast money live from miami. mad money with jim cramer starts right now. >> my mission is. simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to cramerica other my friends i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not to entertain but to educate. teach you. so call me at one 800 743 cnbc or tweet me jimcramer. nobody ever made a dime panicking no matter how many times i've said that. it always feels like the first utterance. but if you match yesterday's