that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. [music playing] >> good morning and welcome to street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum and these are your headlines. asml shares pop as the chip firm's quarterly net bookings topped ■k77 billion. te ceo tells cnbc increased ai competition is not a surprise following the release of china's deep seek. >> ai is. >> creating a shift. >> it's creating. >> a huge opportunity. if you look at. >> it moving forward. >> so what we. >> expect in the next. >> few months is.

>> that a lot of people will. >> want to grab this opportunity. we want to. >> play in. >> this business, so we are going to. >> see a lot of new players. >> and that's maybe. >> what we saw this week. >> lvmh shares. >> trading in the discount. >> bin as the luxury group's fourth quarter earnings failed to impress, falling short of big beats. >> from peers. >> in. >> the sector. european equity markets move higher. overall, the stoxx 600 and germany's dax notching fresh records ahead of an expected rate cut from the ecb tomorrow. and u.s. futures point to tech outperformance as investors await the first fed decision of the new year and a slew of big tech earnings. a warm welcome to street signs. >> in contrast. >> to the start of the week, when it felt like the market narrative was all about that. >> top down. >> view on. >> ai this. >> morning, it appears as

though. >> investors are much. >> more fixed. >> on earnings. the numbers. >> themselves. >> what are. >> the companies reporting? >> and there's a. >> couple of heavyweights. >> in focus this. >> morning lvmh, asml. they're big movers. >> in the market. >> overall we are seeing a move. >> higher for the xetra. dax is up 3/10. >> of a percent here in the uk. >> ftse 100 holding steady. >> the cac40 over in france being dragged down by lvmh. we're going to. >> have all. >> the. >> detail for you in just. >> a minute. >> but worth noting the. >> overall market. >> in france is. >> being weighed down. >> by that. heavyweight footsie made in italy. trading 2/10 of a percent higher. when you break. >> it down. >> by sector, here's a look at the. gainers in the market. what's driving the stoxx 600 to that new record. >> high technology. >> up 4.5%. >> you've got asml driving the gains there. >> industrials also doing well this morning up 1.1%. >> retail and travel and leisure. worth noting. >> of course this comes after a rebound on wall street yesterday. investors putting more money back into the market. >> after that. massive meltdown that we had on monday. on the. >> back of the emergence of deep. >> sea. >> china's low.

>> cost rival to. >> the likes of. >> openai, which. >> of course, i'm sure you're well. >> aware of at this point. on the downside, in europe this morning. >> these are the. >> laggards in the market. you've got lvmh. >> as i said, weighing on the luxury space. >> and that's bringing down the household goods sector. that basket of stocks down. stocks down 2.1%. chemicals food and beverage and utilities round out the worst performers. >> now as i said it is all about the. earnings today in europe. >> here's some of. >> the key. >> names that you want to watch. you've got asml up more than 10%. akzo nobel down nearly 6%. the paint maker delivering a disappointing set of numbers to the market. lvmh down nearly 7%. now we're going to be breaking down the numbers on with with seb ceo johan taube at 945 gmt. seb, another big mover in the market. let's get right to it. >> with asml. >> net bookings came in at just. over ■k77 billion in the fourth quarter, well ahead of analysts

expectations of 4 billion. the chip equipment maker beat forecasts on the top and bottom line for the quarter. and there you have a picture of asml. over the course of the week. it's been a choppy or choppy old week for the stock, as investors try to understand the impact of deep sea on names like asml. but today, very clear message from the investment investment community. they like what they see. the stock is up more than 10%, broadening it out to the other european chip names. here's a look for you. you've got a smi trading higher this morning b semiconductor also catching a strong bid. infineon also moving higher. arjun is has been speaking to the asml ceo and he joins us now with more. arjun i'm dying to hear what the ceo had to say about deep seek about what's been going on in the ai space. take it away. >> yeah. >> we had a really. >> long chat this. >> morning with. >> the ceo giuliana. >> and look, just more. >> broadly, there seems to be this.

>> collective sigh. >> of. >> relief from. >> tech investors here after these asml earnings. >> it was a record 2024. but what was more important was the forecast from the company for 2025, with revenues of between 30 and ■k735 billion. also signaling potentially another record year. and the company saying it's got a backlog of about ■k736 billion. of orders, which is very positive going forward as well. i spoke to christoph fauci, the ceo of asml, to ask what is driving these numbers? let's listen in. >> if we. >> look. >> at 2025, i think we. >> have. >> said that. ai has created a major shift in the markets. so ai is going to continue to drive the market in 2025. and indeed, we have guided for another record year. >> next year. >> we have given a. >> certain range. >> because we still have some uncertainty. >> on how. >> well ai is going to do. but ai is the driver at this point of. >> time and the backlog. you've also quoted as ■k736. >> billion approximately. >> again, where. >> is that above. >> your expectations and where

is that backlog sitting at. >> this point? >> well, i think the backlog is. now supporting 2025 pretty nicely. so we have seen some of our customers really committed for their capacity next year, which is a very good news. to remind you, we still see a bit of a shift in the market and two different camp. the ai customer are doing very well. i think they are bullish. we even see some upside opportunity there, but some of the customers that are still trying to catch up, this ai opportunity, they are not doing as well. >> so the asml ceo is saying it's all about ai demand there. and look, not to put too fine a point on it, but asml is one of the most crucial companies in the semiconductor supply chain, making these massive tools that are required to make the most advanced chips in the world. now, there has been fears, of course, sparked across the supply chain because of deep seek and this very efficient ai model that it released that was trained on what seemed to be a

very cheap cost, and older nvidia chips as well. and this sparked concern that this might mean less investment in infrastructure and concerns that perhaps companies have overspent on ai infrastructure, which includes things like chips as well. this is a question i put to the ceo of asml, what impact deep sea has had, and whether that capex story around ai is still intact. let's listen in. >> ai is creating a shift. it's creating a huge opportunity if you look at it moving forward. so what we expect in the next few months is that a lot of people will want to grab this opportunity, will want to play in this business. so we are going to see a lot of new players. and that's maybe what we saw this week. the other thing we said is that for ai to really come to life in the next few years, not only with the hyperscaler, but with all of us in our fallen pc, we need ai to address two things cost and energy consumption. we believe

that anything that will go in the direction of lowering costs of ai is, in fact, most probably good news, because this will allow the application to go to many, many more devices. so we expect, i would say, a lot of activity around ai. i think a lot of news, and this could be confusing at some point for people who watch this industry, but that's a great opportunity. so i think everyone should expect that a lot of things happen in the next few months. >> now, this is the debate that's going to play out across the tech earnings season, especially as we go into the us. the debate is this has deep tech shown we can do more with in ai for less. and what does that effectively mean for capex? have the big tech companies overspent or is that capex story intact? and that will, of course, trickle down the supply chain to companies like asml. the other side here is that the fact that we can do more with a lower cost and for less and more efficiently means that ai tech will spread further, and that's going to boost demand across the

supply chain, including with chips. and that's the view of the asml ceo. it'll be interesting to hear what other big tech ceos say over the coming weeks. now, just before i toss it back to you, giuliana, i've been running around the asmr headquarters here in veldhoven, netherlands, seeing some interesting parts of their technology. there's something very interesting behind me right there that is asml's first ever lithography machine from 1984. it's called the past 2000. it's quite small. it's quite small. now, just to give you context, it's got to be, what, a meter wide if that something like that, their current high end most expensive machine is 14m wide. it's massive. and so you can see how this technology has come on leaps and bounds. and that i think, encapsulates how crucial a part of the core of the wil asml is when it comes to the semiconductor supply chain. for now. giuliana, back to. >> you arjun. amazing to get the visual there to capture what's

changed in the space over the last 20, 20 plus years. raj, i hope you stick around. we've got a lot to talk about later in the show around these tech earnings and where the value sits now that deep sea tech has really changed the picture for ai. so we look forward to talking to you more later in the program. now let's turn to the luxury space. lvmh posted a 1% increase in fourth quarter sales, underwhelming some in the market after a series of stronger results from rivals. ceo bernard arnault said the luxury group was off to a strong start to the new year, touting outperformance at its flagship louis vuitton brand as well as tiffany's. here's a picture picture for you of how shares are trading. it's down about 6% at the moment, dragging down the broader luxury space carrying hermes, burberry all trading lower this morning. charlotte looking through the analyst commentary this morning, one analyst really summarized it well, luca solca from bernstein coming out saying that lvmh beat and disappointed at the same time. it feels as though this is the story of the numbers not

being so bad in absolute, but consensus being the whisper consensus anyway, being higher than what they actually delivered. >> and that's exactly that. there are two sides of that story. one, there is a recovery luxury demand. these numbers from lvmh seems to indicate that there were a little bit better than expected. things are looking better in q4 compared to previous quarters, even in china. in asia, excluding japan, the sales were down 10%. in q4, it was down 16% in q3. so there is a recovery across the board. but given the strength of some of the numbers, some of the results that we've seen from other luxury players recently, including richemont, cucinelli and also even burberry, last week, some people had hiked a bit their expectations when it came to lvmh numbers and what they did beat a little bit expectation. they were not as good as expected as some of their rivals, and that's why we see this negative response there on the stock market. so here again, looking at the regions, as we were just saying, china is improving but still difficult. the us up 3% in q4. and bernard arnault speaking yesterday talking about a wave of optimism

for that market. europe resilient up 4%. but some concerns around lvmh is also around the fashion and leather division. that makes the bulk of the profit for them there. the sell was still down 1% in q4. they were down 5% in q3. so here again, a recovery, but not quite out of the woods yet. wine and spirits a deterioration there down 8%. cognac still being particularly difficult even though champagne is doing better. watches and jewelry up 3%. it was the best quarter in the year, again showing that maybe some of the most affluent buyers are still going to tiffany and bulgari, but showing that maybe the most aspirational aspirational buyers are still being squeezed out of that luxury buy there. so overall, we see these numbers a bit better than expected. there is a recovery, but there is still a bit of difficulty out there. >> charlotte, thank you so much for breaking it down. let's get a check now on us futures yesterday did see some stabilization rebound. in fact in the nasdaq it rallied about

2% yesterday after the meltdown that we saw at the start of the week. at the moment it looks as though us futures are muted. so investors perhaps pausing ahead of the fed meeting later today. the fed is widely expected to keep rates on hold. and of course, tech earnings, which kick off in a big way later on. let me bring in our next guest, andy sieg, head of wealth at citi. andy, it's an absolute pleasure to have you in studio with us in london to capture a bit of your time. i know you're traveling all over the world these days, and so my first question to you is you traveling around meeting all kinds of clients all over the world. how would you describe sentiment at the moment toward equities? >> well, i think. >> largely constructive. i mean. >> when you. >> when you think about the energy in particular coming out of the. >> us right now with. >> you know, president trump. >> the agenda that he has put. >> down, he. >> has. made it very clear. >> that this. >> is a pro-business environment. we're going to see regulation pulled back a bit. >> in the us.

>> and i think the us. >> as. >> it, as it frequently does, is setting a pace and a tempo for the rest of the world. >> i was in. davos last week. >> i think conversations there were also constructive kind of a. >> feeling that maybe. >> some of the worst fears about uncertainty were subsiding a bit. >> and again, this. >> this pro-market, pro-growth agenda being laid out in the us is something that may. >> have a positive. >> impact more broadly in the global markets. >> thinking about trump's address to davos, one of the notable features of it, to my mind, was not so much what he included in the address, but what was absent. and that was china. and overall, when you look at the last week and a half, two weeks, however long he's been in the white house, china has not been top of mind for the president. he's been fairly conciliatory, even with the emergence of deep sea. he didn't use it as an opportunity to bash china. he used it as an opportunity to really, you know, light a fire under silicon valley. what do you make of that? >> well, i. think overall, again, for equity investors, i think, as i said earlier, some of the some of the fears that

there might be, you know, conflict out of the gates, those fears have subsided a bit. of course, our focus is our clients. and, you know, how can our clients navigate a changing global marketplace? the expectation of some shifts in trade flows as tariff policies are adjusted. this is this is an environment with opportunity, but one where, you know, the advice and the advice that comes from a bank like citi is very valued because despite fears of balkanization, globalization is here to stay. our clients have a worldwide view of opportunities. they're managing their businesses on a worldwide basis. cities are the most global bank in the world, so we find ourselves in the middle of conversations. we can really add value. >> where are the biggest opportunities? where's your focus when you think about growing the wealth business you've been in the seat now for, i believe, about a year and a half. >> well, we have been our you know, again, this is a it's a very global bank. wealth creation is happening globally.

there's going to be $100 trillion of new wealth creation worldwide over the next decade. the fastest rate of growth is in asia. the largest quantum of growth is going to be in the us. but, you know, even in across the uk, europe this is seen as a slower growth region. but they'll be well over $10 trillion of new wealth creation. our specific focus is on clients who's who's businesses and interests and families stretch across jurisdictions. you know, they look to us to try to help navigate the world. and, you know, our focus is much more than many banks on wealth creation, because what city can do is help a family navigate that global landscape, but bring the power of our investment bank and our markets business to those clients as well. >> now, historically, compared to some of the other wealth heavyweights, citi's wealth business has struggled. and that's part of the reason you were brought in to really shake things up. how does this wealth creation approach really change things, and what does that mean?

how does it differentiate you? >> well, there were don't forget, there were structural changes in this business during the financial crisis. you know, some of the business was sold to morgan stanley. this business has a brand unlike any other. the city brand shines around the world. it's incredibly powerful to clients. we've got a client franchise that stretches back decades. given city's history around the world, and we've got incredible people and capabilities in the business. so i, i feel like, you know, for some of the challenges we've had, there's few institutions in the world that are playing the hand of cards, you know, that we are. so i've got an enviable position, which is how do we shepherd these resources and do things for clients that other banks frankly, can't do? earlier in the week, we made it, i think, an important gear shift in our private bank, a private bank is the crown jewel of this business, and we flattened our structure a little bit, increased the focus on the business, and we're making sure that our private bank, as i said, is plugged into the rest of citi in a way that lets us bring bring power to bear that few can match.

>> let's talk about the changes that have come through earlier this week. the idaliou, who is the global head of city's private banking arm, announced her departure from the business. and she was a really leading figure not only for her, for her role, but she was a leading female in the bank. and that's been a key initiative of jane fraser. how do you how do you navigate that, making the changes necessary for the business, but ensuring that you keep up with the strategies that jane fraser wants to instill in the bank? >> well, i have made a tremendous contribution to the business over 18 years. so first of all, start with a lot of gratitude. she did a great job. people come to points in their career where they choose to do new things. we have we've kind of used this moment to, as i said, elevate folks on our team around the world. we've got four regional heads who are reporting to me, and we're running the wealth business overall, very collectively. we brought in some strength from other organizations over the course of the year, including this week, a

new head of strategy who had been a senior executive at ubs. and we're excited to, you know, a new head of lending from goldman sachs. we've got some long time, you know, citi colleagues, chris, bitterly top of the list who have stepped up and taken on more in our business. and you know, what you see across jane's leadership team is phenomenal diversity. you know, in an area like our credit card business, which is a massive business. pam hebner is one of the senior most women executives, you know, in in global financial services. so this is a diverse team. it's a team that's working together very well. and i think we are more than, you know, stepping up to jane's bold vision for the company. >> where are you now in terms of size and structure? are there more departures coming? >> well, i think we've we've set our leadership team, i would say as again, it's a mixture of new talent to the firm and longtime citi talent kind of stepping up and working together. this team is set. it is on on parity with

any leadership team in the wealth management industry. and you know we're in growth mode. and so when you think about changes and adjustments we've had to make, you know, those changes exist in business all the time. but we're going to be very front footed looking to add talent. as we think about some of the unique opportunities we have, including, you know, right here in london, because there's a tremendous energy in london. we've got a, again, some great long standing clients, but a lot of growth opportunity for citi, the private bank in particular in london. >> it's interesting you say that london has not been seen as a real growth opportunity. we've got the chancellor due to address the investment community, the country later today. what what compels you about london. >> well i mean, again, i think, you know, london is a center of global business and has, you know, individuals passing in and out of this city that, you know, represent business and interests everywhere in the world. so if you're going to be a leading private bank in the world,

you've got to be a leading private bank in london. make no mistake, we're optimistic about what we'll hear from the chancellor today. and, you know, again, from our perspective, this is we have a global strategy, and this is a global money center. and it's going to be one for, you know, for forever. from our perspective. >> i'm sure the chancellor will be glad to hear you say that. andy, thanks so much for stopping in. we look forward to your next visit to london. great to be here. andy sieg, head of wealth at citi. coming up on the show, we'll wrap up the rest of the earnings action out of the earnings action out of europe. stay with us. (♪♪) now for something you can both agree on a sleep number® smart bed is perfect for couples. the climate360® smart bed is the only bed that cools

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expects full year sales to fall around 18% at the lower end of its previous guidance. the drinks maker reported a smaller than expected 21.5% drop in third quarter sales, amid weakness in the us and china. shares down more than 3% in the chemical space. akzo nobel has reported fourth quarter operating income of ■k7127 million, a sharp decline from the year before in the wake of restructuring costs. the dutch paint maker forecast 2025 core earnings will top ■k71.5 billio, but that's below expectations and it said it does not expect a significant market rebound this year. shares down more than 4%. the ceo told cnbc chinese demand should pick up this year. >> the chinese domestic consumption. >> hasn't really picked up and. and will start. >> to creep. >> up in 2025. but after a tough 2024. >> but actually in china. >> the b2b. >> businesses in. >> 2024 were up almost 10% in

volumes. so it's really. >> a mixed bag. >> and that. >> makes us. >> manage our business in a very. >> differentiated way from. >> one area to the next. >> logitech has hiked its forecast for the year after posting better than expected sales and profit in its all important holiday quarter. the company saw third quarter sales come in at just over $1.3 billion, up 7% on the year. gaming hardware sales, meanwhile, came in near pandemic highs, according to ceo hanukkah faber. the firm now sees sales for the current fiscal year at around $4.5 billion. swiss healthcare manufacturer lonza posted lower sales and earnings in 2024, thanks to slower demand in its capsules business. full year sales fell 2% to 6.57 billion chf. the company says it expects to return to growth this year, not enough to underpin a further gains in the stock. this morning it's down 3%. rank's full year revenue came in at

■k71.1 billion, as its order intake hit a record for the year at 1.4 billion, driven by a 60% jump in the fourth quarter. the german defense manufacturer announced susanne wiegand will step down as its ceo, to be replaced by alexander sagal. coming up on the show, the white house. azar. david sacks accuses deep seek of training its new model on on content from openai. we'll have more on that story next. >> hello. welcome to teatown. >> black men. >> over 40 everywhere. >> these guys experience. >> a drop in testosterone. don't worry. it happens to all of us. >> some guys took my advice about. >> how. >> to boost their testosterone and some didn't. >> this guy got the message loud and clear. >> that's right. >> eugenics. >> total t. >> eugenics. >> total t is.

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competition is not. >> a surprise. >> following the release of china's. >> deep sea. >> ai is creating a shift. it's creating a huge opportunity if you look at it moving forward. so what we expect in the next few months is that a lot of people will want to grab this opportunity. we want to play in this business, so we are going to see a lot of new players. and that's maybe what we saw this week. >> lvmh shares trading in the. >> discount bin as. >> the group's fourth. >> quarter earnings failed to impress, falling short of big beats from peers in the sector. european equity markets move higher. the stoxx 600 and germany's dax notching fresh records ahead of. >> an. expected rate. >> cut. >> from the ecb tomorrow. >> and u.s. futures point to tech outperformance as investors await the first fed decision of the new year and a slew of big tech earnings.

while markets continue to heal their wounds. in terms of the action we're seeing this morning, you've got the stoxx 600 hitting a new record high. the benchmark is up half a percent this morning. a ton of focus on earnings today, in contrast to the top down narrative that dominated trade earlier in the week. from a regional perspective, here are the bourses this morning. what we're seeing in terms of the action. you've got the french market underperforming down by about 4/10 of a percent. you've got lvmh weighing on that index ftse 100 holding steady. you've got the chancellor due to give remarks later this morning around the uk's pro growth agenda, the xetra dax hitting a record high as well, up half a percent in terms of those earnings. here's a picture for you at how we're trading. lvmh down now about 6% weighing on the broader luxury space after delivering a beat but a

disappointing beat. as luca solca put it from bernstein. asml in contrast, trading sharply higher this morning, up about 10%, and that is lifting the broader tech space in europe. we're also seeing gains in u.s. futures. here's a picture for you of the main benchmarks. you've got the nasdaq looking to add about 67 points at this stage. building on yesterday's move higher, the nasdaq gained about 2% yesterday as investors put money back into the market. s&p and the dow looking at a slightly slower start to trade today. investors also of course eyeing that fed meeting in terms of the magnificent seven. here's a look at premarket trade. the key names in focus in from an earnings perspective as well. we've got microsoft meta tesla all due to report later today. not a lot of action at this stage us chip makers. here's a look at the premarket action there. you've got nvidia holding steady at this point a little bit of green on the board from some of the other major names. now as i said we're set to hear from four of the mag seven in the next two days. tesla,

microsoft and meta kicking us off today for tesla. auto margins will be in focus after the rebound in the third quarter. we'll also be looking for any discussion from ceo elon musk on a future lower cost model and the development of its robotaxi project. while at microsoft and meta, investors will be looking for any commentary on the impact of deep secret ai model with capex spending at the big tech names in sharp focus. president trump's ai czar david sachs, has accused deep six developers of training the new model on content from openai. speaking on fox news, sachs said deep seek had been trained by a process known as distillation, in which it allegedly asked openai's chatgpt millions of questions to learn and copy its reasoning process. neither openai nor deep seek have responded to the allegations. william de gaulle, portfolio manager at blue box asset management uk, joins us now to talk through what's happening in the tech sector. arjun is also joining us for the conversation. william, great to

have you with us. so heading into this earnings season, the focus was all about capex and these major capex plans that all of the tech giants had in place. do you think that we will see a rethink of these capex plans in light of the deep tech developments? >> no. >> i don't think so. i mean, i suspect there'll be some checking going on, but i don't think it really changes anything dramatically. i don't think deep seek is probably quite as dramatic a change as people were suggesting on monday. i think there's more to it than immediately meets the eye, particularly on a cost basis. so it's clearly clever and incremental. but i don't think as far as i can tell that it's revolutionary. and the capex really, if suddenly ai becomes cheaper to operate, then the there's likely to be much more demand for it. so in the end, it could actually boost demand for ai and for the investments in ai rather than depress it. so it's

quite complicated. it could go in any direction from here really. >> it's interesting. i mean, i guess even if we and i think what you're alluding to is that it may not have cost them as little as they suggested, because they did build on a lot of existing infrastructure. but let's say it in terms of what it represents, that building and training these models is going to get cheaper. does that change where the value lies in the ai space? >> so it means that there's more value available. so if it's less expensive to develop something that's already useful, then there'll be more demand for that useful thing. and you could end up with more demand for the underlying resources that are required. it's called jevons paradox. so if you have a resource, you find a more efficient way of using it. that doesn't mean to say you reduce demand for that resource. you may actually increase demand. and that's really the position here. but i think the $6 million cost to develop the deep sea

model is possibly a matter of where you start counting, and it's probably not strictly comparable with some of the 6600 or 6 billion numbers that have been compared to for the western companies. so i think it's very clever, it's incremental, but i don't think it's completely revolutionary. even on the cost side. >> william, it's arjun here. i was just going to ask going into especially us tech earnings season, we know a lot of the big tech giants have announced very large capex plans into ai infrastructure, and investors have been fine with that because they know that these companies need to invest. now, do you think the big tech companies get a little less leeway from investors around sort of capex plans, and perhaps need to start showing a bit more about the investments they've made and the roi they're getting now. >> yes, i think it's quite healthy that everybody's had a bit of a stop and a rethink and

assess whether it is worthwhile, but the management of these big companies are not just, you know, pouring money down the drain without an indication there'll be demand. they're pretty smart, and they will have worked out what they think the foreseeable demand is in the immediate future, and then they need to build for that. if they do overshoot a little bit, that's that's not really a major issue. it's just it cannot go on growing at the current rate indefinitely. so i don't think the investment up to now in the current plans will probably be massively in question, but don't expect it to go on. growing up 30, 40, 50% a year for the next few years because i just don't think the money is available to do that. >> and so what do you think the investment play is this year? you know, there was a huge focus, of course, on the semiconductor space last year, nvidia in particular in focus. i'm currently stood in the headquarters of asml, which reported pretty solid earnings this morning, and in particular

a strong outlook for 2025. in terms of the demand side, is the focus still going to be very much on the infrastructure play this year, or sort of a little bit more focused on the application layer, perhaps back to the hyperscalers and some of those other companies that are utilizing ai. >> well, i think. >> the companies. >> are utilizing it. it is good news. so definitely good news. so if it's cheaper and easier and less capital intensive to run ai, then there's going to be much more productive uses for it. so i think it's quite correct. the market has sent some of the software names that are where these things are likely to be deployed at scale and profitably. those have been doing quite well recently, but i think the whole sort of stack below them also is probably pretty good. and you know, as ae japanese company advantest, which is semiconductor test equipment, is a much better indicator than asml of the temperature of the industry now because that stuff is being used now, whereas asml is its orders are based on expectations three, four, five, six years out. so

that's that's no good at all as a short term indicator. but but everything at the moment still looks full steam ahead, as it were. >> what about the chinese ai plays? there has been a lot of focus, obviously, on what china has been able to do without access to the most advanced chips and without the kind of spending that we've seen from the us tech heavyweights. should investors be thinking about perhaps ditching some of the successful ai plays that have played out in the us in favor of some of the chinese options? >> well, it depends upon what the truth situation is. have they actually managed to achieve deep seat with a relatively small number of relatively elderly nvidia chips? or actually, do they unofficially have a large cache or smuggle much more sophisticated chips out there? we don't know. and there are various suggestions, and there have been for weeks, to be honest, that that it all is not as it seems on the surface. so there are lots of extremely clever, well-resourced people in china working extremely hard, and i'm sure lots of innovation is coming from there, as it is from the

west coast of the us and everywhere else. so i think it's a situation of healthy competition, and i don't see a major issue in that way. so the restrictions on chips for the chinese are probably making them more innovative. they've got to be much more efficient in what they do. and the claim is that they've had a leap forward as a result of that. but we don't know. that's the case. >> william. we'll leave the conversation there. thank you so much for joining us. ahead of tech earnings william de gaulle, portfolio manager blue box asset management arjun thank you as well and thanks for the show and tell. great to see what's going on at asml this morning. now i want to zoom in on tesla. we mentioned tesla earnings are coming into focus. but i'm going to zoom into it from a different angle. we've got a line here from the norwegian sovereign wealth fund ceo nicolai tangen. he says no plans to pull out of tesla now. what is he talking about? why would he be

considering pulling out of tesla? well, this story has hit the tapes in the last 24 hours, and this is what he's alluding to. tesla ceo elon musk butted heads with the ceo of norway's sovereign wealth fund, nicolai tangen, after the fund voted against musk's pay package last year. this is according to the financial times, citing newly released text messages between the two. the latest dialog shows musk snubbing a dinner invitation from tangen, saying, quote, friends are as friends do. norway's sovereign wealth fund has posted a record annual profit of $222 billion. the fund, which is one of the world's largest investors with a value of $1.8 trillion, says it's benefited largely from its investments in the tech space. so quite a story here. effectively, nicolai tangen invited, according to the financial times, elon musk, along with a raft of other big name ceos, to dinner in norway. musk musk said no after nicolai tangen voted down this pay

package at tesla and the norwegian sovereign wealth fund, a massive investor in tesla. but in stocks around the world holding a 1% stake in tesla and a really fiery exchange of words between musk and tangen, two really powerful, powerful figures here. so tangen saying no plans to pull out of tesla. but certainly an interesting story to watch and to see those text messages to see the actual words exchanged. an interesting one. for more on that story you can check out cnbc.com. coming up on the show, we'll break down sb earnings with ceo johan taube. that interview is coming up next. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term

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up to speed ahead of the open on wall street confirmation hearings for robert f kennedy jr. kick off with the health and human services secretary nominee set to testify before the senate. big tech earnings are on deck with numbers from meta, microsoft and tesla due after the closing bell. and traders are eyeing today's fed decision, with the central bank expected to stand pat in the first meeting under the new trump administration. steve liesman has been looking at how the new administration's policies are driving traders. >> higher inflation, but also more growth. that's the assessment of respondents to the cnbc fed survey. when asked about the effects of president trump's expected suite of economic policies, 5% see them as extremely inflationary, 59% say somewhat inflationary, about a quarter say neither deflationary nor inflationary, but 14% believe they are somewhat deflationary or will be anyway. but they're also viewed positively for growth. 14% say very positive, 46% say somewhat, 9% don't expect any effect at

all on growth, but a third believe they could be somewhat negative when it comes to individual policies. respondents are divided on tax policy. 32% believe it'll lead to higher inflation, 36% say it'll lead to lower inflation. but when it comes to deregulation, 55% believe it will be disinflationary. immigration and tariff policy, however, are both seen as inflationary on growth tax policy seen overwhelmingly favoring higher growth, while deregulation 68% believe it will lead to higher growth. immigration and terror policy again, they are believed to lead to lower growth. mark zandi from moody's analytics writes in while the us economy is on strong fundamental ground, much higher tariffs and significant immigrant deportations will diminish it and taken too far, could undermine it. but drew matus of metlife investment management counters regulatory relief is a core feature of the incoming administration's plans and will be a key driver of

increasing economic activity. here's the outlook for the fed. from the survey 65% expect two rate cuts this year. that's down from 78% in our december survey. 61% expect one rate cut in 2026, down from 70%. the probability of a us recession has sunk to 23% in the next 12 months. that's tied with the low level from february 2022, and just 36% now think that president trump will respect the fed's independence, down from 56% in december. and following the president's remarks demanding the fed lower interest rates. the uncertainty over these policies, along with sticky inflation, explains why the fed, having already cut by 100 basis points, will take its time figuring out its next moves. but it could reduce rates if the inflation data cooperate. steve liesman, cnbc business news. >> well, sticking with central banks. sweden's central bank has this morning cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points. the move is the fifth cut in a row

and the sixth cut since last may. the riksbank said there were signs an economic rebound was on the way, but that activity remains weak. sylvia joins us now with more on this decision. give us a little bit more color on how they couch this decision. >> well. >> we. >> could actually say that perhaps. >> the swedish central bank is the first one to be. >> able to claim. >> that the fight against. >> inflation is achieved. let's see what will happen in the coming months. >> but nonetheless, when. >> you think. >> about. what they said today. >> it is the sixth step in the easing cycle. >> they had. >> already indicated. >> that there was going. >> to be a first. >> cut in the first half of. >> the of the year. >> they deliver that already today. so the question going forward is whether. >> they're going to cut. further in this first half of 2025. and this. >> is why i want to show. >> you this sentence, because when you look at the commentary from the riksbank today. >> they are. >> saying they. >> will carefully. >> evaluate the. >> need for. >> future interest rate adjustments. here is the suggestion that perhaps. >> they are.

>> done with this rate cutting cycle. some economists are projecting that we could see a final cut in the month of march. of course, that is going to depend on the incoming data, but the. >> message from the. >> riksbank could indeed highlight that perhaps this is it. let's see what, as i say, the incoming data is going to tell us. but perhaps an important moment when you think about the outlook for the swedish economy. >> what we. >> have heard thus far in terms of data is that inflation has eased once again in the month of december. gdp in the month of november was higher than forecasts were indicating. so perhaps here, even though the swedish economy is still on a weak footing, perhaps we are seeing a little bit of an uptick really going forward. ultimately, the shift that sometimes we talk about when talking about central banks, the ecb and so on, that perhaps they are shifting their attention from inflation more into the growth outlook. that is definitely the case. when you think about the swedish central bank, they are indeed focused on how is growth picking up. when is it picking up to then

figuring out whether this is it for the rate cutting cycle. and of course, we are going to have the chance to speak to the central bank governor later today. erik ten at 12 gmt. so let's see what he's going to tell us in terms of the outlook here. >> silvia, thank you for breaking it down and look forward to that interview for more color now. swedish bank seb narrowly missed fourth quarter net profit forecast, dipping on the year to 7.49 billion swedish crowns, in part due to declining interest rates. the lender also proposed a lower than expected total dividend for the year, keeping it unchanged from a year earlier. johan taube, ceo of seb, joins me now. thank you so much, sir, for joining us on the back of these numbers. i know investors going into these figures have been very closely fixed on net interest income. you reported a decline in nii in previous quarters. once again in q4, it dropped by about 2% versus the third quarter. have we seen the bottom when it comes to nii? >> i don't think. >> we have.

>> i think. >> i. >> heard that the riksbank, the central bank of sweden, just lowered. interest rates. and it's always the case that when rates go. >> up. >> it's bad. >> for lending, good for deposit taking, and when rates go down, it's good for lending and less good for deposit taking. but what happens now is that we're repricing. >> the. >> whole balance sheet. and we're still, you know. midway through or maybe three quarters through. the adjustment of the interest rate. >> so there's. >> definitely some headwind reasonable. to assume going forward. also nii and this should. >> be at a lower at a later. >> point compensated. >> for by. >> higher activity in. >> the economy. >> and we can also see this quarter where net fees and commission, they're actually up 11% year. >> on year for the. full year, whilst. >> nii is down five. exactly how it's supposed to be. >> very well explained, very clear. just give us a little bit more detail in terms of what you're seeing in lending. >> it's a very muted demand. >> it's a. >> sideline movements on pretty much every single line. so cre.

>> real estate. >> corporate lending and looking at the co-ops, the housing. co-ops that we do and everything points to a higher activity in the future. but very little is tangible right now except. >> for the baltics. >> so in the baltic. >> states. >> we saw. >> a 5%. >> growth on the. >> corporate lending book and 6% in mortgages. so they seem to act quicker than the nordic economies. >> and when would you expect to see an uptick in activity in a material way in the broader nordic economies? >> yeah. first i'll say. >> i have no clue. >> but as a hobby. macro economist, i do. >> like to think about monetary policy. >> works with a lag. >> it's also mysterious, but. >> somewhere around. >> 6 to 18 months after a rate is adjusted, you will see the beginning of the effect and the full effect. so i think one just needs to be a little bit patient. and you will see that economic activity will pick up. but i don't know and i don't dare to predict when. >> well, i appreciate your candidness and the humility

there. i don't venture to guess myself. talk to us about what you're seeing in terms of assets under management. it seems to be a bright spot net inflows over the course of the year. >> yeah, it's one. of the areas where we. >> haven't performed particularly well in the last decade. so we made an attempt. >> a couple. >> of years ago to reinvigorate the. whole area. and now as of today, we will actually have the last day of private wealth management and life and insurance, pensions and asset management separate, and we'll put them and bundle them all together in order to continue this. probably the most interesting area for secular growth going forward. but it is very happy to see that 2024. >> was a unusually good year for us. >> so not at least we hit the 2700 billion of assets under management that swedish krona divided by ten. you get the dollar, but also net inflows were 60 billion, which is quite significant in the economy as it looks today here, here in in sweden, performance has been excellent. the markets i think

has been more or less stable. the equity markets during the year. so it looks like we have performed relatively well on anything related to the aum business. >> let me ask you about your dividend. investors have been somewhat disappointed by the dividend coming in today, unchanged from a year earlier. what's your message to those investors? >> well. first is to remind everyone. about history. we had a dividend ban after covid, which was something we very loudly expressed our dislike around because seb was performing exceptionally well and there was no need for us to not repatriate capital at the time. that ended up being 800 or even 900 basis points of extra capital over the minimum requirement, and the buffer just exploded. we then took the decision everything into account that it will give us three years to adjust this excess capital, and that we have done today to go back to the range 1 to 3%

above the minimum requirement. today we have 290 basis points, so 2.9%. now when you did that this has been very well communicated. when you did the math only a quarter ago, you could have gotten to a higher dividend than we have proposed today to go to the agm in march. but we also announced a 10 billion kronor full share buyback program for the year of 2025. and if you take them all together, it's still north of 10% of capital repatriation equivalent in total, which we believe, together with the board deliberations yesterday, to be a very well balanced number. >> johan, we'll leave that to investors to decide whether whether they think that's a well-balanced number. let me just wrap up on air. plus tell us how the integration is going. >> we have no news. so air plus is of course the major focus for 2025. it's a small part of the bank, but it's an important one. as we transform our credit card business on the corporate side

into a really strong and i wouldn't say dominant, but a top tier corporate payments firm in europe. and we're working very hard. we've had it now for almost six months. and the 2025 we will restructure the whole organization and then merge it with seb card, corporate card, and it will become one entity. it's going according to plan. but as always, integration is a challenging topic. >> johan. we'll leave it there. thank you so much for the conversation. johan taube, ceo of seb. let's get a check on european markets before i hand you over to our colleague stateside. we are seeing overall a positive session in europe, the xetra dax up about 6/10 of a percent. the cac40 over in france down 3/10 of a percent. as the market digests those numbers from lvmh a beat but a disappointing one. ftse over in italy trading about 2/10 of a percent higher. and here in the uk we are keeping a close eye on the political space, with uk

chancellor due to unveil a pro-growth agenda later this morning. so a speech coming through and interesting to hear from andy sieg, head of wealth at citi earlier on this program, say that london is a key focus for them from a wealth perspective, and he is looking forward to those remarks today from the chancellor looking at the big earners in focus, here's a picture of how they're trading right now. just about two hours into the session asml holding on to those early strong gains about 10% higher. lvmh meanwhile sitting about 6% below where we started us futures. here's a picture for you of the wall street session. at this stage, we're looking at a further gains for the nasdaq. about 93 points. that is it for today's show i'm giuliana tatelbaum. thank you for joining me. worldwide exchange. coming up next. >> america you. >> love alien tape. and now you can. >> get. >> two roles. >> for free. >> that's right. free. >> introducing alien tape. the double sided.

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>> they have. >> a. >> cluster of. 50,000 nvidia gpus. >> deep sea. >> their model is actually the top performing, or roughly on par with the best american models. you can see the deep sea new model. it's super impressive and it's super compute efficient. >> we're not just about managing information. we're about supplying digital workers. now we're. >> making this. >> transformation of digital labor. >> it is 5. >> a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. welcome to worldwide exchange. >> here is. >> your. five at five. futures are mixed after a turnaround tuesday on wall street. we're going to dig. into the aftermath of that deep sea fueled selloff. front and center today big tech earnings with deep sea could mean for. >> tesla. >> meta and microsoft. >> also new. >> reports this morning microsoft is probing. >> deep c its roots. >> and possible. >> unauthorized access to its data. and counting down to the fed decision. today and what jay powell might say about trump's first two weeks in office. and no spending struggles here. the global chip giant seeing a big stock surge.