2020. >> the stock. >> is. >> flirting with levels up. near 250 here in overtime. that would put it. back more. years than this. >> five year. >> chart will tell me. >> yeah, it'll be interesting to hear. what guidance is. >> from microsoft on the call. >> we had. >> major averages fractionally lower this. >> time tomorrow. >> apple results as well. that does it for us here at overtime. >> that's money starts now. >> live from the i. connections global health conference in miami beach. this is a special edition of fast money. here's what we've got on tap for you tonight. a big night of big earnings, nearly $6.5 trillion worth of companies reporting after the bell from microsoft and meta to tesla and big blue. we've got all the numbers covered. we're bringing you all the trades and trump versus the fed. the president having some harsh words for the central bank after it held rates steady at its latest meeting. what he had to say and what the fed had to say about inflation. plus a bitcoin bonanza. the crypto up nearly 50% since president trump was elected. what the new administration will mean for the coin and the rest of the crypto

space. we've got a huge slate of guests tonight to cover all of that. goldman sachs, elizabeth burton jefferies, david zervos, armand pinajian, co-ceo of oaktree capital, and steve kurz of galaxy global. you won't want to miss a second. welcome to fast money here in miami. i'm melissa lee, and i'm joined on the terrace of the convention center by dan nathan and guy adami on this very, very big day. >> two huge day, the global. >> great couple. >> of days. >> it has. >> been you've. been you've been. out front. people love melissa lee. i just want people to understand. >> that either. >> oh it's i get carried away. >> prolific. >> she's prolific guy. >> but it's. >> been a really great conference. we've got a really great lineup. >> yeah. >> and you know. >> it's funny. >> we started this week out talking. >> about this deep. seek and. >> what. >> it meant for. >> one of the biggest secular. >> trades that. >> has really gripped the markets. obviously, a lot of the performance over the last two and a half years has been tied to that. it feels like, especially as we get into tonight's earnings, there's kind of some in the armor here a. >> little bit. we're seeing. >> decelerating growth. you could. >> have. >> made that call on any occasion over the last two years, but maybe this is the week where we start to see it a

bit more. >> all right. well, let's dig in here. we start off with a big trifecta of. big tech earnings shares of microsoft, meta, tesla all on the move. >> after the reports. >> we've got full team coverage of the results. julia boorstin is standing by in meta philip. >> bo has got all. >> the. details on tesla. >> but we. >> start off with steve kovach who's been watching microsoft. >> steve what's the latest. >> yeah melissa this is a big one after that deep seek moment coming on monday. but look, here's what we got now. beat on the top and bottom lines for microsoft. eps came in at $3.23. that's a beat by $0.22 revenue. another beat here $69.63 billion. street wanted $68.78 billion. but what you guys really care about is all the ai stuff and cloud stuff, right? so azure was a slight miss here showing 31% growth. street was looking for 31.1% growth. that's actually lower sequentially. we saw 33% growth in that segment back in the fiscal q1. and then of that i made up 13 percentage points of that azure growth that is continuing to increase and become a bigger part of the azure story. meantime, microsoft

says it's a 157% increase year over year for artificial intelligence revenue across all cloud, not just in azure. and then some. another new figure here is artificial intelligence business over at microsoft. they're saying it's at a $13 billion annual run rate. that means they took the revenue from this current quarter. we're talking about multiplied it by four. and they say they're now on a rate to or a run rate of 13 billion and change and then open ai. those losses over at open ai, which microsoft of course is a major investment in, that's taking a hit on earnings. over at microsoft, microsoft is saying $2.29 billion are can be attributed to the to that open ai losses. they were expecting $1.5 billion when they gave guidance last quarter worse than expected. and then capital expenditures of course. a huge topic of discussion here amid the deep sea conversation, $22.6 billion spent in the quarter on

capex. look at this chart here. that is most almost double what they spent in the year ago quarter on capex. huge question coming up on the call at 5:30 p.m, guys, is whether or not they need to be spending the way they've been spending. we know that $80 billion figure is good through the end of june. what happens after june? that's the big question, guys. >> all right. keep us posted steve. >> thank you. >> steve kovach. >> in san francisco for us. it does seem like the weak azure number. >> is a. >> front. >> and center, at. >> least right now until. >> they talk. >> about guidance for capex. on the call. >> one tenths of i mean, it's not it's not a miss. i mean, it's basically in line. and i look at this and say revenue is up 12% year over year. margins were better. >> i think what it comes. >> down to is valuation. you know, you're talking about a stock that's probably trading around 30, 31 times next year's numbers. and in an environment now where valuation is front and center, given what we heard on monday, that's concerning, i don't think you're. >> going to. >> sell the stock down to 415 or so, but it's one of those quarters where we're going to continue to go sideways. by the way, microsoft made its all time

high in july. the broader market's been doing extraordinarily well since then. it's been going sideways to slightly lower ever since. >> yeah. and i'm not. >> so concerned. >> about. >> you know, coming in line at. 31% versus the estimate. like i just said, at 31.1, it really is that deceleration from 34% last quarter to 31% this quarter. and then you have. >> to. start asking yourself, okay, well, they have this really cozy. >> relationship with openai. >> a big part. >> of that deal. >> over the last. >> two years is openai's. use of their cloud infrastructure. and so if that relationship is being strained and everywhere. >> you look. >> because of. >> stargate. >> because of stargate, because of a whole host of other things, i mean, openai, i think quietly has. >> been complaining about either their. >> capacity. >> you know. >> that sort of thing. so at the end of the day, i mean, the microsoft story was an. >> early beneficiary in the public markets of this trend, starting out in early 23. it might be. >> one of the ones. >> that's waning. and to guy's point. >> about the. >> stock, i think investors are sniffing this out. it made a high in. >> july of last. >> year and has really. underperformed many of the other names in the space. >> in terms of capex guide, if

they talk about it for next year, if it. >> comes in. >> and it looks like 25 is the peak, is that good? the stock goes up. >> i think. >> it. >> would be good. >> i think you'd. >> be saying, okay, we've got peak capex. we're going to the other. >> side. >> of it now. they've spent all the money they need to spend. we're sort of decelerating. i think the market would actually probably like that. and you'd see the stock bounce on the. >> back of that. yeah. >> it depends. you know, if you think. about what we just. >> heard of microsoft. and meta over the last few weeks about. their capex and what they're spending for. >> this year in 2025. i mean. >> it seems like they're. >> in concert. >> at. >> least reiterating. >> some of the. >> numbers that they've. >> given over the last few months or so. >> i suspect you. >> don't see a ramp up of those. i think the deep. >> seek and the alibaba market, i think. >> a lot of folks are going to kind of not too different what fed chair powell said. >> they're not going to be in any. >> hurry to do. >> obviously to raise it. but in this case, you know, i just i don't know, i think we're probably going to hit a pause here for the next quarter or so. >> all right. >> let's get to meta. now shares are moving higher on a q4 beat here. the conference call just kicked off top of the hour.

julia boorstin has been listening in. julia melissa medici. mark zuckerberg is on the call right now talking about his focus on ai and in particular how the company's ai assistant called meta ai will be transformative this year. they expect it to reach a billion people. he also talked about how important it is that people's ai assistant be personalized to them. and of course, meta has lots of information about what kind of personalization we might want. now, looking at the stock up about 2% this past quarter, meta's revenue growth did accelerate. instead of decelerating like analysts anticipated, meta did guide to decelerating first quarter revenue growth of 8 to 15%, or 11 to 18%, on a constant currency basis. and after announcing up to $65 billion in capex last week for the year, the company gave some more insight into its guidance of up to $119 billion in total expenses for the year, saying, we expect employee compensation to be the second largest factor as we add technical talent in the priority areas of

infrastructure monetization. reality labs, generative generative, artificial intelligence, as well as regulation and compliance. now, meta did not give a official full year guidance, but said this we expect the investments we are making in our core business this year will give us an opportunity to continue delivering strong revenue growth throughout 2025. what's strong? we'll see. there were also a couple of upside surprises daily active people, growth stronger than expected 5% and reality labs lost less than $5 billion. that's far less than the 5.4 billion loss that analysts were expecting. melissa. all right julia thank you. julia boorstin on meta. and of course we'll keep us posted on all the developments. the d word. deep sea hasn't yet been mentioned. although we are only eight minutes into the conference call here. but it sort of sits in this. >> cross section of the. >> valuation is good. >> plus. >> theoretically deep sea should help agentic ai. and that's. >> exactly what meta has. >> the third quarter. now we've talked about this. there are two in my opinion, there have been

two companies that have absolutely figured out ai. it's walmart and it's facebook. and how do you say how do you figure that out? operating margins came at 48.3%. the shoe was. >> at 42%. >> which means if you know what, you're going to slow down on the revenue side. that's more than offset by the margin improvement which you're seeing in eps gains. i mean, that eps number is ridiculous, which means the stock now at an. >> all. >> time high, to your point, is still reasonably valued. and for everything i get wrong, which is a lot, facebook is one i think we've done a decent job with. >> you know, listen, this is no longer a hyper growth company. >> you just. >> talked about operating margins. that's great that they're getting that. so obviously. >> they're getting. >> leverage from some of. >> the. investments that they've made. but expected earnings. >> and sales growth for the next two years about. 1,213% or so. you know, you better see that sort of. >> margin continued. >> margin improvement. >> you know and julia just. mentioned reality labs. >> and the loss is not. >> as big. >> as expected. >> go back. >> and think about the 70%. >> the stock. >> lost from its highs in 21 to. >> its lows in 22. it had a lot to do. >> with. >> reality labs losses. and now the fact that they were able to reposition.

>> a. lot of that spend and get the benefit. i just wonder. >> if it's kind of pulled forward. >> last thing i'll say deep seek. >> you know, open source model. >> the alibaba. >> model, open source model. llama. >> which is. >> meta's open source model. if those are blocked here in the us, that. >> should benefit. >> meta to some degree. you're going to see a lot. >> of developers working around llama, especially if they're trying to keep up with some of the deep sea that's outside the us. >> by the. >> way. >> a text from the chairwoman on buybacks. >> from meta. >> the street was looking for $6.7 billion and they bought back zero. so that's sort of an interesting development in light of all the talk about spending and where they're spending their money, they're not spending their money on shares, at least in the in the latest quarter. >> so how. >> did karen. >> we are. >> hello. >> hello, karen. wish you were here. >> all right. let's get to tesla here. shares up a couple percent. this despite. >> a top. >> and bottom line. miss phillips has got all the details here. >> phil and. >> melissa. >> that conference call starts in 20 minutes. and one of the questions is really most of the questions are going to be focused on what's what's the outlook for the cyber cab full self-driving. we'll talk about that in a little bit. let's run

down the numbers. you mentioned. >> the miss. >> on the. >> top and the. >> bottom line $0.73 a share. the street was expecting 76 revenue coming in what, basically $1.5 billion shy of expectations. free cash flow of just over $2 billion. when you look at their deliveries, people were expecting them to give some type of guidance. increase of 10%, increase of 20% in 2025. they are not doing that. all they are saying is that the automotive business is expected to grow in 2025. perhaps we'll get greater color on that in about 20 minutes. in terms of the outlook full self or the energy. >> storage business. >> which has been really the growth story in the last year. it's expected to continue growing in 25, up by 50%. that's their expectation right now. lower priced model production will begin in the first half of 2025, and then cyber cab volume production is expected to start next year, though they do say that they expect to start launching it. that, along with full self-driving in certain

markets in the united states later this year, as you take a look at shares of tesla, remember the call starts in about 20 minutes. one last. >> note, melissa. >> the automotive gross margins, excluding zero emission vehicle credits, the expectation was for it to come in at 16.3%. you see the impact of lower price, lower cost models. the discounting it came in at 13.7%. guys, back to you. >> all right phil. >> keep us. >> posted. again. the tesla conference call begins in just about 15 minutes time. another interesting development in the tesla release is the booking of a bitcoin gain or digital asset gain. that was $600 million in the quarter. so that is something different from what we normally hear from tesla. the shares look impervious to bad news at this point. >> so we play a lot of games on cnbc a lot. and one of the games we play is, if you told me this yesterday. >> what would the. >> stock reaction be? >> the stock reaction be you know that. >> game i'm familiar. >> you tell me they're going to miss eps. we're going to miss revenue. and margins.

>> would come in. >> at 16.3%, which is going back. >> like a year or so. >> when we thought we saw trough margins, say, okay, where's the stock given the run it had post-election i'm down 50 bucks easy. >> and it's. >> not it's actually up in the after hours. so clearly they're not looking this as a car company anymore. >> they're looking. >> at something else. but you know the free cash flow number of 2 billion which phil said you just explained i think the reason why. so label me a skeptic on this one. mel. >> yeah i wouldn't say it's a hilariously bad quarter, like i said a couple quarters ago, but they missed. >> on every key metric. >> i mean, when you think about it, the company is embroiled in. >> a. price war. >> i think a lot of those. >> ev tax. >> credits might be gone. despite the. >> proximity of musk. >> to trump. they're in a, you know. >> disastrous situation, in. >> my opinion, in china. they're trying to make this lower end vehicle here in the us to kind of stimulate growth. they did not have. >> growth last year. >> the fact that they are not kind of guiding. towards anything like that, it should make you think twice about where they are rates higher for

longer. not a great thing. i know the guys last night vinnie. >> mentioned that two years ago they. >> were having a. >> fit or elon was on the call about rates and what that. means for them. >> and then the last piece. >> of the. >> puzzle, elon. >> has gone back and forth about. >> tariffs, about chinese evs. >> listen. >> if they don't sell enough of the cars that they make in shanghai, which is about half of their production. >> then they go to europe. and europe already. >> has stiff tariffs on chinese evs. so i don't think they get out of this. >> anytime soon. >> the last. >> thing. >> i'll just say is. >> like. >> if. >> you want. >> to. >> buy this stock on. >> robotaxi and mass production. >> of those things. >> at the. >> back half of. >> this year to be deployed next. >> year. >> have at it. >> all right. >> this is a cult stock. >> this is a cult stock though at this point. >> this is. >> a trump term. >> i got to go to an. >> airport tonight. >> i'm not going. >> to get whacked. you heard the. >> guy on the. >> horn before anyway. please. >> but that that was the point. i mean. you brought up porter and vinnie. they're saying we are invested in lucid because all the money is going to tesla because it is a cult stock at this point. it is not trading on fundamentals. we are seeing that in the after hours. >> session. >> proof of that. and yes.

>> i. >> think that's. >> exactly right. >> i mean, if based on all the metrics that i'm looking at right now, history suggests that it should be significantly lower. it's gotten back what it lost during. >> the day. so maybe. >> that's part. >> of it. >> but again, the math sort of doesn't work at this point. and now people are looking at this through a different lens i guess. >> yeah. let's get to nvidia here. interesting move in nvidia down 4% today in the regular trading session up though after hours bloomberg reporting the white house is considering tighter curbs on its sales to china. megan costello has got the details here megan. >> melissa. that's right. so that bloomberg report says that trump officials are having what they called early conversations about putting additional restrictions on nvidia's chip sales to china and specifically focused on the h 20 chips. these are those scaled down ai chips that had initially been designed to get around current u.s. export controls on nvidia's sales to china. the company saying in a statement this afternoon that the biden administration's thresholds, they say, had been set on performance levels reached five years ago and that it's ready now to work with the administration as it pursues its own approach to ai. now, the

white house and commerce department did not respond to my request for comment on that report, but i would caution that it's very early for any decisions on export control policy. no one is yet leading the commerce department or even the export controls office within commerce for the administration. so we're in very early stages here. i will add, though, commerce secretary nominee howard lutnick did today say in his confirmation hearing that he will be very strong and rigorous in his approach to export restrictions toward china in order to ensure that the u.s. remains a leader on ai. so it could suggest that this type of policy will be supported moving forward. melissa. >> all right. megan, thank you. megan costello for more on all things tech and tech earnings. let's bring in fast money friend gene munster, managing partner at deepwater asset management. gene, great to have you with us. >> hi. >> let's start. >> off with. >> tesla because. we that's sort of where we. >> left off. >> before with the traders here on the desk. what do you make of this quarter. it's a little head scratching in terms of the reaction in the after hours,

given the quality of the print. >> yeah, this was melissa. >> i was. >> shocked to see the stock up. >> i mean, this was messy. i think guy what did you say this occult stock. ultimately i think that the numbers are pretty choppy. and it's just hard. >> to hard. >> to. see why it's up right now. i think it's basically confirmation that people think that this is more to go. >> what do you want to hear from microsoft? >> it's all about capex. >> and zuckerberg. >> said it. >> related to microsoft. it's all about capex. >> don't want to highlight. >> probably the most important point. >> from these earnings calls so far. >> zuckerberg's comments that they're going to spend hundreds of billions on capex. i mean, that's really reassuring. that's what we're. >> looking to hear from. >> microsoft, how much they're spending on capex. >> do you think that we will hear guidance on capex for 2026? i know that is a mile away, but a lot of investors want to hear that. microsoft, you know, this year's $80 billion is going to

be the peak. >> i think this you know coming into this earnings is taking a step. >> back melissa. >> this is all. >> about what's going to happen with capex. and as i mentioned, zuckerberg's comments. >> about the. >> hundreds of billions. >> to put. >> that into perspective, this plays into what's going to happen in 2026 is comment about hundreds of billions so far. >> meta's invested. probably 50 billion. >> in capex. so just to put some context about. how far along the road we are, and i think. >> that as. >> we kind of play that forward to 2026, if he's saying hundreds of. >> billions of dollars. >> and you have to kind of given. the competitive nature of how these companies are building the ai infrastructure, the comments that zuckerberg is making is probably going to be similar to some of the comments. that we're going to hear from microsoft. and to get to that hundreds of billions probably means that this ai infrastructure. build continues into 2026. and so i think that this is really positive, as i kind of process everything that

we've heard so far and seen everything at tesla, meta and microsoft. the biggest takeaways. so far is this is really positive for nvidia, even despite what's happened with kind of the china piece. because as you said, melissa, that outlook for 2026 on the capex is just really i think it's upbeat. and keep in mind, zuckerberg didn't. have to reiterate this. he didn't. >> have to. >> double down on what. >> he had said. >> last week. and given what's happened earlier this week, i think it's. really encouraging regarding just the broader ai trade from. the early, very early part of what we've heard. from these companies so far. >> hey. >> gene, you just mentioned, you. >> know, nvidia being a beneficiary of all this. we know that, right? >> so a couple of weeks ago microsoft. >> meta they gave. >> their capex guidance. >> for the year. >> so here we are the reiterating it. >> and you know. >> let let's see. >> how. this stock. >> you know how far it could run a little. >> bit if you could fill in that. >> gap from monday. but, you know, going back and looking at that chart over the last three

years since it really took off, there's not a. single gap. >> to. >> the downside. >> there's plenty. >> to the upside. so i guess the question here is. that is it going to be. enough as far as. this guidance is concerned? you know, given the. headwinds that we might be seeing around the globe with some of these open source. miles out of china. >> like. >> is there a chance that the trade is just done for a bit? so this is. >> specific to. >> nvidia or. >> the nvidia. >> maybe the. >> broader ai trade? i think again, we're piecing together data points real time. that's what happened with deep sea because it was one data point and the market had to extrapolate it to, i think out to several years now. since then we've had some more data points. and like you said, with nvidia and their business, and i think the bottom line is. >> this is. >> that if capex infrastructure continues to remain strong, we're going to see models, even if they're novel models like we saw from deep that can be produced at lower prices, they're still going to want to build the infrastructure to get those models out faster. so if we continue to see that, i think

that this is that build out, which is what we're hearing tonight from zuckerberg. if we continue to see that, i think that the not only will the hardware spend more broadly continue, but i think that the software piece is going to start to play out. and so i think that. >> this. >> this broader ai trade is, is still very intact. >> gene, thanks so much. great to get your take. >> gene munster. >> coming up, we'll keep an eye on all the after hours tech earnings. we are ten minutes away from meta as well as tesla's calls. 21 minutes into another call here. meantime, we've got other names reporting las vegas, sands, ibm, whirlpool and more. the numbers from the quarter straight ahead. but first the fed pausing its rate cutting campaign, sending a warning about inflation. jefferies, david zervos and goldman sachs elizabeth burton join us next to lay out the impact and where the markets are heading from here. you're watching fast money in miami live from the eye connections global conference. we are back global conference. we are back in two.

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session after the federal reserve left interest rates unchanged. fed chair jerome powell striking a more cautious tone, warning of sticky inflation and signaling that the committee is not in a hurry to cut rates. president donald trump reacting on truth social in just the last hour, writing that powell and the fed failed to stop the problem they created with inflation. the president adding that his policies around trade, deregulation and energy will, quote, make our country financially and otherwise powerful. again. joining us here in miami is david zervos, jefferies chief market strategist, and elizabeth burton, client investment strategist at goldman sachs asset management. great to have you both here on set in miami. elizabeth, i'll start off with you. what is your reaction? because, you know, it's funny, the statement came out, people got really concerned that it was hawkish. the fed sort of pulled that back a little bit. and then you got the trump trump effect as well. >> look i think. >> it's. >> it's not unexpected. we were. >> sort of. >> waiting for a. >> pause this time. and. >> by the way, not a lot of the investors. here other than the. managers are really thinking about it.

>> they're mostly thinking about the. diversifying assets they want to meet here. but we haven't changed our forecast. we're still expecting two cuts this year, 1 in 2026. >> and the timing. >> is kind. >> of uncertain around that. >> but we thought it was. >> interesting that they. >> removed the clause about the. >> progress towards. the 2% inflation. >> which was. >> again, not meant to be a signal. sure, he later on said in the press conference. david, from your standpoint, we were chatting in the break and you were saying that you were waiting for the trump tweet afterwards, and there you got it. you know, you have the message on truth social. but how do you put this all together? because you have where the fed is, and it seems like a growing tension between the president and jerome powell. >> yeah. i thought. >> there was a chance that that jay could have broke that tension today and maybe, maybe said something like, we're looking. we're looking at what deregulation means for inflation. we're looking at, you know, what the tariffs and immigration policies mean. >> we're kind of. >> coming up with our own versions of it. but he he really is playing it as low key as you possibly could. he just did not want. >> to talk about. >> anything related to the new administration. and i thought

that was kind of. >> a. you know, i just i think he's got to do it at some point. so why not get it out of the way and just start the process? i don't. know what delaying it for another six weeks does, but you know, that's what he chose to do. he's going to have to step up and start saying things sooner rather than later. and, you know, we're going to be watching these trump tweets post fomc meetings, probably closer than we're going to be watching the s&p and the and the statement in the coming months. >> you know, coming quarters to watch elizabeth over the last year and a half. she was one of the few people that got the inflation story right. and it's still a problem without question. crb index is at a 15 year high. so is it going to continue to be a problem? i guess is my question. >> it could be. >> a problem. i think. >> there's some overindexing. >> on the tariffs issue that's only going to add, we believe about 3% 0.3 percentage points. >> to inflation. but on your point. >> if it. >> does become a problem and it's. >> not our base case, but if it does, as. >> you know, goldman believes that over the next decade. there's a 1 to 7% return kind of bracket. >> there for u.s. equities.

>> and if inflation. >> does stay higher, then you run into the risk of negative real returns. >> and for the clients i. >> serve. which is mostly us public pensions, that's a massive issue, particularly because, look, last year. >> was a good. year for 60 over 40, but only. >> because of the 60. so there's a lot of hurdles here. >> yeah david. you know. >> we keep hearing. >> about this new administration and flooding the zone with all these policy ideas right. and it's. >> kind of creating. >> a little bit of uncertainty or a little bit of uncertainty. >> how do you. >> think about that. right. so we're just talking about. >> powell at some point is. >> going.>> to have to obviousl. >> stand up. >> and kind of stake. >> how. >> they're. going to go. >> about this. >> but all. >> that uncertainty. >> and how the. >> fed has kind of changed their. >> tune over the last six. >> months. >> or so. how do you think it shakes out if we do have interest rates, you know, kind of stick around here at. >> this four. >> and a half sort of level. how does how does it play out for equities? >> i think. the optics actually. >> look pretty bad. >> for the fed at the moment. and they look a little like he's setting himself up for a. two 2018 showdown with trump. and i hope that's not what happens because that won't be good for equities. i hope he moves the other way. but you know the 50

basis point cut just before the election not good optics. now pausing just after the election. not great optics. so i think they've got to kind of really stake out. do they really have this disinflationary view that we're getting back to two. what is it on. is it on energy. is it on the tariffs not being as big a deal or the immigration not being as big a deal? i think they've got to start taking a stand on all of those issues. by the way, it's not that uncertain. we saw the movie in 1718 and 19. we saw tariffs, we saw immigration. we saw exactly what his fiscal policies were and inflation went nowhere. so it's really hard for me to get my head around a fed that wants to jump into this. oh my god, there's all these inflation risks i got to worry about. when three years of trump policies produced two and a half to 3% growth and very little inflation. and then of course we got covid and all bets were off. so i think there's enough history that they could make an educated guess. i'm just a little bummed out that jay

balked so hard this time. i think he had a chance to step in and maybe do something, and he didn't. >> there's obviously a lot of question marks still regarding policy and how that's going to impact what the fed does and the economy. elizabeth. so what are you telling clients in terms of the volatility that so many people are expecting in the first, you know, six months, give it of the administration. >> volatility is actually a good thing. you sort of want volatility if you want to make money right. >> so i think you want to be looking for investments that can. >> make money without calling the interest. rate phenomenon correctly. >> so volatility is good. >> for convertibles right. >> and there's a lot of tailwinds behind. >> that whether in arbitrage or long only strategies. there's also. >> tailwinds behind private credit. either way the rates story. >> goes i know a lot. >> of people think that's. >> a great thing to look at in rising rates. but in a declining rate environment. you can pay off and lower. >> your debt better. and then liquid alts and hedge funds. anytime there's volatility, relative value trades are the way to play it. and there's a lot of that here today. and that's what our clients are looking for. >> yeah. and in terms of jay powell not defuzing that tension between the central bank and the

white house, i mean, how how are you anticipating that will impact equities immediately? look. >> i'm very optimistic on equities. but i'm very optimistic on equities not because of the fed i'm optimistic because i think the deregulation trade is really underappreciated. and i think people are still you know, the number one question i get in a meeting is what are you worried about. are you worried about tariffs. are you worried about immigration. are you worried about fiscal recklessness. everybody's got a wall of worry to climb. and that's usually a great sign for equities. so i think we've underestimated dereg. it's a huge story. the president said it in his speech two days ago down here at doral or three days ago now in doral. he said, i talked to ceos every day and i ask them, would you rather have tax cuts or deregulation? every ceo tells me the same thing. i'll take the deregulation. we should be talking about that so much more. the cutting of the red tape is huge. the tariff stuff, the immigration stuff. these are to me much bigger sideshows than the deregulation story. and i think he mentioned that in his tweet after today's fed meeting, that the bank regulation stuff is really something they want to

focus on, to unleashing our industry from under the reins of what was created from eight years of obama and four years of biden. those were big regulations on the financial services industry, dodd-frank and everything else. and kind of michael barr being out and kind of the next stage of what financial markets look like in a deregulated environment. i'm just really excited. i'm excited for our industry. >> all right. thank you, david zervos, elizabeth burton, appreciate it. coming up, china's got more and one more entrant in the global ai race. the new model from alibaba that could already be out doing deep sea. and what it could mean for the stock plus opportunities in private credit. oaktree capital's co-ceo armon panosian will join us next to detail how moves and rates are impacting the space and where he's seen the best returns. you're watching fast money live from the ai connections global conference in miami, florida. back in two. >> ready for the big meeting? >> i have to write this project plan. >> i just. >> need to. >> reply. >> to 40 emails. >> every day. your team gets sucked into endless writing tasks, and every day hours

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also sharply higher despite an earnings miss and whirlpool dropping after reporting disappointing revenues. service now take a look at that. also lower as results what's that game we play. >> with so many? i don't know what you're talking about. try to make a word that half the o the acronym. i have no idea how to play it correctly. a is not in. i am not one of those people. b is, but b isn't. b is in the two. and b is actually done pretty damn well. and you know what? we had vinny and porter. and they think alibaba is probably 4,050% undervalued. and then ibm real quick. do you believe in coincidences. no no. neither do i. it's no coincidence that when gary cohn came in look at what that stock has done. by the way i think that was the eye in sandy kennard's like swift trade a couple of years ago. last year all time high in ibm maybe a little extended. but this has been a great story. >> all right. coming up starbucks shares brewing up a nearly 2% two year high, i should say, as the coffee chain updates investors on its

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out. it's over at four patriots.com. >> welcome back to fast money. a new administration, the specter of inflation and a hawkish fed may have major implications for credit markets this year, but our next guest says any potential uncertainty could be a huge opportunity. ahmed pinajian is the co-ceo of oaktree capital management. welcome back. great to see you again. good to see you too. connections. why is that? >> well, anytime there's uncertainty, it creates opportunity for firms that have the depth of expertise and finding that type of idiosyncratic situation that needs a solution. so we're really excited about the uncertainty. we think there's opportunity embedded in it. but in addition, i think because there's some uncertainty around the inflationary policies that that president trump may be taking on, kind of leans on rates being higher for a little bit longer, which is great for credit investors. >> right. where are where are we? i mean, are we in a sweet spot right now in terms of rates for the private credit markets?

i mean, we just had elizabeth burton of goldman sachs and she was saying it's actually better if rates are a little bit lower. you know, your borrowers can pay back better. >> sure. i think there are different types of borrowers. so in terms of consumer borrowers who are below prime or subprime, i think the rates are kind of tough right now. we are seeing some elevated delinquencies in that type of borrower base. but in terms of corporate borrowers, fixed rate borrowers, this last few years have been a pretty good period for them because they've been able to grow with inflation and some of the stimulus. so they're actually feeling really good about life. >> i mean, i'm sorry, i was just saying something's happened. it's never happened before. since september 10th year yields 3.6. fed cuts goes up to 4.8 over the course of 5 or 6 months. we've never seen that before. is there a threshold where you know rates get to 5%. that's been the number that's been talked about. things start to get a little dicey in your world. >> they do. and i think it's really because there are certain types of assets that are pegged to that ten year, especially in real estate. and i don't know what the magic is on 5%, but it

does feel like there is a an issue that will become a problem if 5% is the persistent rate on the long end of the curve. >> i mean, you said higher for maybe a little longer. so, you know, we hear higher for longer as kind of a mantra here. you know, we're at 4 or 5 on the ten year if you had to look out. i don't know if you're a betting man or not. you know, look out six months. are we 5% or are we 4% in the ten year? >> if i were a betting man, i'd say it's closer to 5% there. there's a lot of deficit spending that is planned that leans on rates being a little bit higher. we need to be a bigger borrower as a country. and but for some some pretty significant changes in the buyer base of our treasuries, i think it leans on higher rates. >> in terms of private credit here at i connections, obviously you're talking to a lot of potential investors. what are the biggest drivers still driving them to the private credit market as as another layer of investment. and what role do you know, do treasury yields play in that decision in terms of carving out your basket

and deciding within my fixed income basket, within my, you know, bond basket? i'm going to go to private credit over something else. >> yeah, it's a great time to be in credit. it's partially due to the rates being high. it's also partially due to some pretty attractive spreads above those base rates. when you compare that against equities, i think the prospective returns on credit are far more attractive because there's a contractual rate of return. the coupon is very powerful. if you look at the forward p e today and you were to overlay them against history and kind of do a little bit of prediction on what equity markets would return, we think that they'd be inferior to credit in the in the short to medium term. and that's why a lot of investors are looking at credit because of that contractual return, because the picture for equities is a little bit uncertain. and that's why they're allocating. but in addition to that they just like the income i mean high yield bonds yielding 7% broadly syndicated loans yielding even more than that private credit close to 10%. if you're a pension fund that has a roughly

7% payout ratio, it feels really good to be in that, in that sweet spot of credit of below investment grade credit. >> armin. thank you. great to see you. armin pinajian of oak tree. coming up, the changes coming to the starbucks menu as that stock jumps to a nearly two year high in the back of earnings. more on the turnaround plan next. and bitcoin prices hovering near record levels, but taking a sharp leg lower after today's fed decision. what our next guest says about the pullback and how president trump's stance on crypto will impact the space. you're watching fast money in miami live from the eye connections global alts conference back in two. >> thank you. >> in a world of uncertainty and disruption, how will your investments stay resilient?

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>> you want to apply to be on cnbc's disruptor 50 list. is your startup disrupting the status quo? scan this code or go to cnbc.com. slash disruptors to apply before february 10th. >> welcome back to fast money. starbucks up more than 8% on the back of its strong earnings report. the coffee chain posting earnings and revenues that beat expectations and announcing it will slash 30% of its food and beverage offerings from the menu by the year end. it was the best stock. the stock's best day, i should say, since last august, and its highest close since may of 2023. we talked about this yesterday guy, but the move today was really something. >> wrong on this one. and look at the stock that traded almost 40 million shares that typically trades eight. so the volume was behind it. a lot of people have been out of this trade obviously

poured in. i talked about the four year downtrend that i thought was intact. we closed through it today. good for starbucks. there's a lot of hopium now when people believe brian, clearly, but they have a lot of obstacles still. and valuation is not cheap here. >> obstacles like what? >> well i mean all the obstacles that they've had. i mean, i think they have a growth problem without question. they have a margin margin degradation that's been going down. yeah. i mean, the business is on the other side, i think. and people are saying he's going to the magic wand that he did at chipotle. he's going to do at starbucks. they're entirely different problems. >> all right. coming up, a new world for bitcoin. galaxy's steve kurtz will join us next to detail the latest moves in the crypto space and what a u.s. stockpile could mean for the price of bitcoin. that is next. more fast money live in miami right after this. >> you're seeing skechers famous glide step footwear everywhere. and now that famous design is available in hands free. skechers slip ins get the comfort and style glide step now with the convenience of slip ins. with no bending down or touching your shoes, try glide

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and free panel at four patriots.com. >> welcome back to fast money in miami. bitcoin climbing almost 50% since president trump was reelected in november. the cryptocurrency just off of all time highs from last month, but still solidly above the 100 k level. galaxy global's head of asset management steve kurz, joins us now on the crypto landscape. steve, great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me.

>> you've been coming to this conference since the inception. how different is the environment now? >> you know, it feels a little trite to say this time is different, but it really is. i mean, it's the standing room only crowd for all of the sessions on bitcoin. i think the best way to explain that i was at the bar with my wife last night. we had a nightcap. two skeptics who were investors were next to me. they spent 30 minutes debating why crypto wasn't real, but they knew everything about solana, ethereum, trump, coin, all the meme coins. you're like, this is very different. the starting point is very, very different. >> in terms of that incremental sort of, you know, party that's interested this year. who is it? is it the institutions? is it pensions? >> who? >> it's all the above. i mean, you have you have certainly the allocators that now have had work done by the consultants. so the operational due diligence work is done. the pensions are looking the institutional wealth crowd, which is a $50 trillion market that hasn't yet really come into the space. they now see a one year track record on the bitcoin etfs. they're starting to take real look towards investing their client capital in bitcoin. it's really all the above. >> steve when you think about it

we've heard a lot of use cases you know over the years. and many of them have kind of fallen by the wayside. right. it really has become a store of value. so when you talk about a lot of these big institutions and the demand for it, is it just that is it just digital gold? >> well, it's chicken and egg. you need the regulations and a framework to build crypto was a back end technology. first you're going to see an explosion of building on top of crypto. now it's not just digital gold. you have ethereum and solana obviously, but stablecoins. what you're going to see is stablecoins moving from a $200 billion market cap to 4 or $500 billion. it's a cheaper technology, the settlement is faster. it's found product market fit. we don't need to do anything except to put more fuel on that fire. >> very friendly administration. how important is a bitcoin reserve? >> the bitcoin reserve is it's of course important, but it's not as important as the fact that the war on crypto by the us government is officially over. it really is. you've never seen a 180 degree shift so quickly from one administration to the next. what happened in the last few years is we were talking about what is crypto then? why is crypto important now? it's how are we going to bring crypto

to the us? you got the executive orders, you've got the sec actions giving you air cover and setting the tone already bringing builders back to the us. but then you have real legislative rolling up your sleeves. we were just in doral talking to republican congresspeople. where does defi fit on the board? how do we sequence this? how do we get things done this year? >> what would be the number one legislative or regulatory catalyst for you for the for the price of bitcoin? >> well, we just need to know for the price of bitcoin we need a framework around market structure. and we need an overall what is the security. what is not a security that's going to help bitcoin. that's going to help the other coins. that's going to help the front end of crypto be built like i said. >> all right steve great to speak with you. >> thank you. >> thank you so. >> much for having me. >> galaxy. we got to get back to gene munster here. he's been listening in on the tesla conference call that stock is at after our session. highs up about 5% right now. gene what's the latest melissa. >> three key takeaways. first the robotaxi service launches in austin. that's in june. most people had expected it late in

the year. they did say it's dipping the toe into the water. second is that he described 2026 as a year that's going to be epic in 2027 and 28 as being ballistic, ridiculous and bananas. i mean, he just really can't pull the adjectives on more strong. and last is on the capex side, he says given the opportunity around ai more broadly and autonomy and optimist, a $500 billion infrastructure buildout is justified. so i think it's kind of all systems go, at least for the people that can look past. not a lot has been said about 2025. i think he's laying the groundwork that give him space in 2025 for a breakout in 26. >> all right, gene, thank you gene munster for that update on tesla. the other stock's pretty stable in the after hour session in terms of the moves. but tesla is the one that is moving higher. it looks like somebody used thesaurus.com tonight in terms of ballistic and bananas and using all these different words to describe amazing. >> well it's just incredible to have that kind of clarity that

far out when i don't think a lot of people have clarity what's going to happen over the next couple of weeks. but you know what? if he does, that's why he's being rewarded right now. >> yeah. it looks like they backed away from 2025 guidance that they gave i think for, you know, growth of 30% or something like that. and the really kind of back end loading it. i mean i think that sort of commentary is kind of bananas. and i don't think that institutional investors really want to hear that sort of stuff. i think the cult stock owners get really excited about it. it is a excited about it. it is a trillion and a business. it's not a nine-to-five proposition. it's all day and into the night. it's all the things that keep this world turning. it's the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. trust. hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. powering more businesses than anyone. powering possibilities. (grunting)

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talking about the crew. i'm going to end it that way. yes. the people behind the scenes have done a remarkable job. the true heroes of the last two days of this show. >> putting up with you. >> guys, melissa lee. >> all right. thank you for watching fast money live in miami. mad money starts right now. >> my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey i'm cramer, welcome to mad money. welcome to cramerica. other people make friends i'm just trying to save you some money here. my job is not just to entertain but try to explain all this stuff. so call me at one 800 743 cnbc or tweet me jimcramer. fraught. that's the word we use in the office for days like today when so much seems to be going wrong. even if the averages weren't that terrible.