good thursday morning and welcome to squawk box right here on cnbc. we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with leslie picker and mike santoli. joe and becky are both off today, but there is a lot, a lot going on both in the markets. and also we want to talk about what's happening in washington dc, which you're going to learn about. if you have not heard overnight, let's take a quick look at us equity futures before we get into all of that. the dow right now up about 173 points. the nasdaq up about 92 points. the s&p 500 up about 18 points. but right now we want to get to what we know about last night's mid-air collision that took place near washington dc. and american airlines regional passenger jet in an army blackhawk helicopter colliding near reagan national airport, crashing into the

potomac river. a massive rescue effort is underway and i want to get straight over to eamon javers. he is reporting live near the crash site. but before we do that, we want to go. over to phil lebeau, who's got a rundown of exactly what happened. phil. >> this andrew happened just before 9 p.m. last night. we don't have a whole lot of answers in terms of actually what caused this. and that's going to take some time to figure out completely. but here's what we do know. this mid-air collision happened about 300ft above the surface. it was an american airlines regional jet on final approach to reagan national. 60 passengers, four crew members. it collided with a u.s. army black hawk helicopter, which was on a training flight. there were three soldiers on board. this is a map that shows you where that american flight was scheduled to land. and its runway 33, the shortest runway. that's the approach that the american airlines flight was on as it was coming into reagan national. both aircraft then after the collision, crashed

into the water of the potomac river. this security cam footage, which came out last night, gives us a rare look at something we rarely see when it comes to an aircraft accident. the actual moment of impact, if you will, that light coming towards you. that is the american airlines flight. there's another light that goes towards the aircraft. and then you see that flash. that is the apparent collision again about 300ft above the ground. at this point, investigators are looking for the black boxes and how quickly they can recover the flight data recorder, as well as the cockpit voice recorders. that will provide a lot of answers. in terms of what happened last night, the ntsb is leading the investigation, the reagan national airspace. this is not a surprise to people who fly in and out of washington. it is among the busiest in the country. it is not uncommon to see black hawk helicopters flying around while you were flying in or out of that airspace. doesn't mean that it's dangerous. it just means that it

is a congested airspace. as you take a look at shares of american airlines, we should point out this is the first u.s. airline crash since 2009. robert isom, the ceo of american airlines, is in dc. flew in there late last night. he's there along with their go team, to work with the ntsb, work with the faa, try to determine exactly what happened that caused this mid-air collision. >> hey, phil, before you go, you know, they're landing close to their landing planes within two minutes of each other, supposedly during this period. yep. throughout. throughout. and then you made this comment about, you know, the helicopters being there. and that's not always unsafe. >> it as. >> as a, as a layman, you think to yourself, given given all of the particulars of trying to get a plane on the ground and how many planes they seem to be landing at one given time, this seems to be one of the most sort of busiest times. how is it possible that the helicopters are running training missions

right next to the airport? >> great question. i don't have an answer for you, andrew. look, they don't just pick a spot out and say, hey, let's go on a training flight. as you know, they the faa, air traffic control along with the military. they work out the routes and the airspaces that all aircraft are supposed to be in. now, did one of the aircraft, for some reason stray out of the path that they were supposed to be in? we don't know. that will be determined by investigators fairly quickly. i would imagine the fact that this is right there, so close to the ntsb, the faa, the military headquarters, it they should be able to get some answers very quickly in terms of, at least initially, why they think this took place. >> with 64 souls on board. thank you. phil. we're going to go straight to eamon javers. he's in alexandria virginia right now. he is near physically the scene of the crash. >> eamon. andrew. that's right. it's been a long dark and cold

night here for rescue workers as they hope against hope that they might be able to find some survivors here in the potomac river. so far, no indication that any survivors have been found in the hours since the crash. you can see over my shoulder here, andrew, on your right hand side of the screen. the main focus of search and rescue activity is on the water. it's closer to the d.c. side. we're standing in alexandria, virginia, right here. the search and rescue is focused on the d.c. side of the river for right now. and you can see officials out there doing what they can to see if they can find any survivors from this tragic incident. we heard from the d.c. fire chief last night. he gave a sense of just how difficult this is. here's what he said. >> the water that we're operating. >> in is about eight feet deep. >> there is wind. >> there is pieces of. >> ice out there. >> so it's just dangerous and hard to work in. and because there's not. >> a lot of lights, you're out there. searching every square inch. >> of space to. >> see if you can find anybody.

>> the divers. >> are doing the. >> same thing in the water. >> we've also got a statement here. take a look from u.s. figure skating. they are confirming that a number of figure skaters were on this aircraft. they say we are devastated by this unspeakable tragedy and hold the victims families closely in our hearts. we will continue to monitor the situation and will release more information as it becomes available. those figure skaters on board the flight were returning from a national figure skating event in wichita, kansas. that flight, directly from kansas to washington, d.c. the flight's only been in existence for about a year, but obviously this is a highly trafficked area. andrew. and as you were talking about ronald reagan national airport, which is just to my right here, north of where we're standing, the airport is now closed. it will be closed, they say, until 11 a.m. no aircraft in or out of the airport, no vehicle traffic in or out of the airport. andrew, all of the access points

to ronald reagan national airport are blocked right now by police cruisers, redirecting any travelers who might be showing up at the airport today. so this is going to be a major logistical issue as the morning goes on. in addition to the human tragic elements of what we saw last night, officials are hoping against hope, andrew, that they might be able to find somebody alive out there. back over to you. >> eamon javers in alexandria. a lot to watch and to process. and of course, we send our condolences and so much more to everybody involved in this situation. i want to thank both of them. we're going to bring you, of course, more updates throughout the morning about this story. as we get them later. >> this hour, we're going. >> to talk to longtime american airlines pilot dennis dozier. >> all right. up next, we'll get you up to speed on this morning's market moves. a look at the stocks driving the futures higher right now, including some widely held big tech names coming off of earnings. plus steve liesman has

a look at the key comments. >> from fed. >> chair jay powell on interest rates. squawk box will be right back. >> welcome to reinvented with accenture. today i'm here with margherita della valle ceo of vodafone. you were employee 25 in vodafone italy. today you're the ceo of vodafone. what is your strategy and vision for the future? >> we are changing our culture to really focus on our customers. we need to acknowledge that change is hard, but if people understand it's for the right reason, then you get the power of the organization with you. out here, no two days are the same. some days are for breakfast with friends at home, others for going out at tractor supply. we'll help you make the most of life out here no matter how you live it. tractor supply for life out here. >> i'm howie mandel, the. >> newest ambassador. >> of skechers. >> funny story, how i became an

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lighter than expected. meantime, tesla earnings and revenue both missed analyst estimates. the stock initially fell but rallied during the earnings call as ceo elon musk made some bold predictions about the company's future. as is his habit. >> meantime, ups just reporting in the stock. it is slumping earnings of $2.75 a share. that was $0.22 better than expectations. revenue of $25.3 billion. that came in slightly below estimates. and the guidance is weaker for the full year. you're seeing that impacting the stock right now down about 4.3%. the company expecting revenue of $89 billion. that's versus the estimate of 95 billion. ups also planning $5.5 billion in dividend payments and $1 billion in stock buybacks this year, which i'll also bring you a programing note because the company's ceo, carol tom tomé, is going to be on the exchange a little bit later today. that's going to happen at 115 eastern time to first on cnbc interview. you do not want to miss. the

federal. >> reserve holding interest rates steady at yesterday's meeting. the markets are focused on the language. >> and the. tone from chairman powell. >> steve liesman joins us now to. read between the lines. steve, what was telegraphed largely expected. but there is a bit that we can kind of garner from his body language and tone. right. >> yeah. and actually the words he said to lesley, the fed keeping. >> rates unchanged, as you said at the january. >> meeting. and fed chair jay powell suggesting the pause could continue, though the direction of rates remains downward. what he said when he was asked about a march cut. here's his response. >> the economy is strong. the labor market is solid. downside risks to the labor market appear to have. >> abated. and we. think disinflation continues on a slow and. sometimes bumpy path. that tells. >> me and. >> the. >> other. >> members of the. >> committee, the broad sense of the committee actually, is that we don't need to be in a hurry. >> to. >> adjust our policy stance.

>> so among factors staying the fed's hand for now, sticky inflation and uncertain fiscal policy changes from the trump administration, especially tariffs. >> and the. >> range. >> of possibilities very. >> very wide. we don't know what's going to be tariff. we don't know for how long or how much, what countries. we don't know about retaliation. we don't know how it's going to transmit through the economy to consumers. >> that's that really. >> does remain to be seen. >> now, on the. >> upside, powell did say the fed that the fed funds rate. remains meaningfully restrictive. so that would tell. >> you that the. >> direction of rates eventually, once they get past the uncertainty, can factor in the tariff issues should still be downward. what traders do in the futures market. well, they about took march off the table for a rate hike and became more pessimistic about may. but then you could see now there's some conviction about the first cut coming in june. and now either that late october meeting. >> november or. >> december is when you might get that second cut. there's not

a whole lot of conviction there for the fed. the keys to the next move. pretty obvious inflation coming down in the next couple of months could spur another cut. the jobs number is weakening. would also get them going in that regard. but also clarity when it comes to policy from the new administration. leslie, i have to think you put trading part. you put tariffs on our three biggest trading partners. that's a hard stop for the fed for now. >> i have. >> to ask steve, because you've been covering this space for a very long time. and, you know there's always uncertainty. we always talk about uncertainty. but can you help. contextualize the policy uncertainty to. where we are. in kind of the rate. >> cycle as well? >> i mean, have you. seen anything like this? does it remind you of any other period in history? >> it's a really good question. i've been thinking a lot about that. leslie. you do get uncertainty when you change over every administration. there actually are indices that gauge this. and those that i've seen suggest that the uncertainty

associated with the trump administration this time are actually higher than the last time. and as you can see, leslie, and as you hear the changes that are being talked about by this administration are very broad. i mean, we went into that meeting with the federal government, stopping all payment of grants and all kinds of federal spending had been temporarily stopped. and then just about an hour before the statement that was rescinded, that particular memo, you have this massive offer out for some kind of furlough. it's not quite a buyout for federal workers. those folks could show up on the unemployment line. but most importantly, i think, leslie, is this you have a little bit of an inflation problem. your .5.7.8, whatever you say over your target. okay. and now you have a proposal to raise prices on our three biggest trading partners. now there's plenty of good theories. why maybe that doesn't

pass through either fully or passes through only partially to the consumer. but you don't take a flier on a theory. and those theories, by the way, could be could be absorbed by the export or could be absorbed by the importer, could be absorbed by exchange rates. fine. all well and good. but if you have. and that's why i played that first sound from powell. if you have the job market in a good place, you have the economy in a good place. you have no urgency to cut rates, but you're raising prices through tariffs. it doesn't seem like it's that big of a logical jump to say, hold it, we're going to wait. let's let this thing pass through. if it passes through and it's not a big thing, we'll cut rates again. if it doesn't we're going to hold off. so it's not like i don't think powell is exercising a an advanced college class in rocket science by saying you're raising prices i got an inflation problem. i'm going to hold off for a little while. now, of course, the president didn't like that.

>> it's a fragile balance. and he's maintaining optionality to make sure that we have full picture of the information on policy front and how it will. impact the economy. steve, thanks so much. >> pleasure. >> we've got a lot more coming up on squawk box this morning. the ceo of pharma company sanofi is going to join us to talk earnings. also about how the company is using ai in drug development. squawk box is development. squawk box is coming right back after this. (vo) weight loss. for so long, i felt stuck. but zepbound means change. zepbound is for adults with obesity, to help lose weight and keep it off. activating 2 naturally occurring hormone receptors in my body, it works differently. it's changing what i believe is possible when it comes to weight loss. it's changing how much weight i lose. up to 48 pounds. and changing what happens.

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announcing a $5 billion share buyback program. so there's a lot to get into here. paul hudson is here. he's sanofi ceo. paul welcome to the broadcast. let's talk about the quarter. i'd also love to talk about some of your thoughts around the dividend decision and the buyback decision. >> well, we had. >> a great 2024. >> for sure. >> and not only. >> did we advance ourselves in terms of our financial. >> performance. >> but also our pipeline, and we're able to reward shareholders, like we said. >> you know, both. >> in dividend and of course the buyback. it's important, you know, we're a good investment even for us. and we set ourselves up very, very well for 25. you know we finished 24 with 11%. growth on the top line. and you know our business is top line and pipeline. and with the successful launches last year, three launches to come this year, we've really positioned ourselves extraordinarily well. >> let's walk. >> through what's working, maybe what's not working or what's not

working the way you want it to, in terms of what you think will happen this year. obviously, the big winner is fortis, which protects against this sort of respiratory virus that folks have. >> well, we've been i've been coming on here for, you know, five years preparing ourselves to get into this launch sequence. and it takes a while in pharma, as you know, to do things that have simply never been done before. before us is protecting, you know, over 6 million babies in. >> this rsv. >> season. >> reducing their chance of going to hospital by 80%. >> dupixent in. >> copd is. >> really the. >> first advanced therapy that's going to be available. >> for. >> those patients. and altuve in hemophilia a, giving people a. next to normal life on a weekly basis. so those things have been doing really well. we're very proud of them. we're powered by, as we've said before, we're a leaner, meaner, more focused organization and right up ahead of us. and this is where it gets exciting. we have real subroutine in itp. we have told

ibrutinib in advanced progressive ms. you know, we're really doing things that have not been done before. and i think that this makes people proud here, but it sets us up for like i said earlier, this top line advance and this pipeline advance. and that's where we create the most value for patients, of course, but more importantly also. well, no, not more importantly. but at the same time, those that invest in us and. >> those that i'm going to ask you as a, as a shareholder, somebody who watches the stock, which you do, do you think that the pipeline is accurately reflected in the stock? i don't think it is overly reflected in the stock under reflected. >> it's clearly. >> under reflected. but it's sort of understandable because we really don't get the credit until we get into phase three, where the probability of success is much higher. and so, you know, we have a like really burgeoning phase two program. we have 12 medicines in phase two and phase three. so later this year with the launches, the advancements in the pipeline, we have it's fema in copd. we have

readouts in hamlet, in asthma, our oral tnf our one. and as people get to understand those and remove the risk from their models, we're going to start to see an acceleration in the appreciation of the pipeline and its value. and again, that and the underlying commercial performance. you know, that's what we strive for. that's what we've been working hard for. and now it's starting to come together. that's the best thing about being in the company right now. >> and back to the buybacks and dividends. i just wondered if you walk us through the thinking in terms of either taking that money and returning it to shareholders effectively, or taking that money and investing it in new r&d, sort of what's what's the trade off for you? >> well, you know, we said back as long ago as 2019, our capital allocation priorities were pretty fixed. we would invest in our growth and our pipeline. first, we would respect our progressive dividend with a dividend aristocrat. of course, close to 4% yield. that's our proposal for the agm. and we also said that buybacks were on

the table. you know, we think we are a good investment right now. so we think it makes sense to do it right now because it's important to a we can show the confidence, but we think we're going to be on the rise. and which makes sense to have good timing. we've not really made a trade off against r&d. we made a tough call. i think you may remember back in q3 2023 when we said we're going to double down on our pipeline and change our guidance. that's proved to be correct. maybe it was a bold decision at the time, but we've not underspent on the pipeline and that's the magic. so we're able to do this for our shareholders right now. it's a sensible thing to do, but we've taken r&d to almost a company high and we'll maintain that, keep that at that level in 2025. >> paul, before we let you go, rfk having his confirmation hearings just yesterday, there are some people in the country very excited about the things he's talking about in terms of food and health and the like. but a number of your peers have

also described him as anti-science. what do you say? >> well, you know, there is, of course, a high degree of interest in, in food and health and those things and frankly, should be in science, i think at least my take home is there's a call from him and those around him for a high degree of transparency. i all i care about is two things. one, understand the level of transparency there is right now and how we work with the regulator, what we share. it's extraordinary. and i think once it's fully understood, i think that's good news. and secondly, we ask this question every time doesn't matter who's leading, doesn't matter which administration we ask. what does it mean for patients. how can we protect out of pocket? how do we keep it low insulin for example as low as zero, as high as 35 bucks. how do we do that. and we look through the patient's lens as we should do. and that's where we'll work with the administration to try and make sure we get. >> it right. irrespective of would he be. he might not be a fan of your new vaccine, for example. >> you know, again, we believe

in the data. we're highly transparent. you know, this like everybody else does after clean water, vaccines are the most effective population health strategy. i think the first step is always make sure everybody understands the data, make sure everybody is clear about the transparency. we work in a highly regulated industry, and i think that's a good jumping off point. again, we see political changes, leadership changes around the world continuously. we start with what's best for patients. how can we explain, how can we make sure people understand and we take it. >> from i assume you've studied what he has said about vaccines, and you're in the business of selling vaccines. so how do you square those two ideas? >> well, like like i said earlier, you know, if you look at 100,000 babies that we just did take as a group. >> i know, i know the math. i'm saying he has come out publicly, quite publicly, and said that he believes that some of these vaccines are effectively causing autism and other things, and there should be a much more significant rethink about the

number of vaccines, the schedule of vaccines, how they work, the efficacy, all of that. right? i mean, that's what he has said. so and that is irrespective of the science, if you will, or irrespective of some of the data that i imagine you could provide on the other side, i'm just saying he's now created a debate in this country about something that i think you think is settled, is almost settled. law, he says, is not settled at all. >> you know, i take nothing as settled these days. i've been around too long, but i recognize that first thing you do, share the data, make sure people know what's available. and i think you know, what you're appealing to is for people to take the time to take a look at it, the personalities and the different approaches. you know, that's always going to change, and it's always going to make the way we talk a little bit different. but frankly, you know, we believe in what we do. we believe in how transparent, transparent we are. we believe in the standards of which we are held. and that just doesn't change his own perspectives. and i haven't met him, so i can't comment. but i would say that in the end, we're

just trying to make sure everybody knows what we're dealing with, and we do the best thing for patients, babies, the elderly and make sure they get what they need. >> right. okay, paul, it's great to see you this morning. hope to talk to you again very, very soon. >> thank you. look forward to it. >> coming up. >> an. >> update on the deadly mid-air collision near washington, dc last night. we'll tell you what we know so. far and get reaction. >> from. >> longtime american airlines pilot and union spokesman dennis tajer. >> introducing the rex fang. >> and innovation. equity premium. >> income etf. pepe. >> pepe invests. >> in leading big. >> tech stocks. >> while balancing growth and income, combining. >> tech growth. >> with. >> premium income. >> pepe offers a unique

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from professional certifications, to job training, to help navigating programs and services, we give veterans access to support from anywhere in the world. important thing to have. the things and the people that you care about are taken care of. >> create your estate plan at trust and wilcom. >> good morning. welcome back to squawk box. we are live at the nasdaq market site in times square. this morning. i want to show you futures. right now you are looking at some green on the screen about 118 points higher on the dow. the nasdaq up about 132 points in the s&p 500, looking to open about 22 points higher. check out shares of ups because that stock getting worse this morning after reporting earnings that beat estimates. but revenue misses and guidance coming up short. we've got a ceo got an interview with the ceo of ups a little later on cnbc. that's going to happen in the 1:00 hour on the exchange. so you're not going to want to miss that. but we do want to get to what has been a heartbreaking story all morning. an update now

on the mid-air collision last night near washington, dc and american airlines regional jet carrying 60 passengers, four crew members colliding with an army blackhawk helicopter. three people on that helicopter aboard both aircraft crashed into the potomac. and joining us right now is dennis taylor. he's an american airlines pilot, a spokesman for the allied pilots association. i want to welcome you to the broadcast. i know it's an airport that you've landed at so many times that i've landed at. i think it feels very close to home for a lot of our viewers. just your initial thoughts, given everything that you have seen, come in around how this may have happened. well, it's devastating. >> and obviously. >> our thoughts. >> and prayers are. >> with the passengers. >> the crew on both aircraft, their families. there's just no figuring out how to handle this other than to take the. grieving and try to heal and to those first responders. >> they're risking. >> life. >> and limb to rescue and

recover beyond belief. the courage it takes. what as as was mentioned. and phil just nailed it and we all know it. dca is a very congested airport. >> it's compounded by. >> airspace restrictions. >> to protect our capital from threat. those prohibited areas. >> what we saw. happen is not an abnormal maneuver coming into runway one for the regional aircraft. >> we fly mainline. >> and represent those pilots. >> but coming. in to the. basically the ils. >> to runway. one and then maneuvering for the circling. approach to three. >> three is. >> a very common maneuver. obviously, the collision with the. >> army helicopter. >> is still yet to be determined. investigation. >> the ntsb will lead. we're going to. have questions. we're going to be looking for answers just like the public, but know that every pilot out there is as close to this as you can be. >> because we don't want. >> it ever happening to us. >> right, dennis? i mean, i know

you have questions. tell us some of your questions. even if we don't have answers, i think it will be informative just to understand what the kinds of questions you would be asking about. i imagine why that helicopter was where it was. obviously, it appears that when a helicopter is that low, given the radar system on it, that it becomes not unseeable, but a lot less visible, if you will, at least electronically. >> i'm not certain. >> of that. >> you know, the experts who work the radar site, the air traffic controllers can can answer that. and they and they will. and the ntsb, i'm sure we'll have a preliminary. >> at. >> a minimum. the question we have is, is this helicopter tracking traffic? and i've seen it plenty of times at. dca and it's called out. >> it's sighted. >> we have collision avoidance systems. >> on the. >> airplane, but that has limitations on. >> it as well. >> so all the issues coming together. >> i'll give you more detail on it. on the aircraft. >> i fly, the 737. >> i don't know that it's really. >> that uncommon, but. >> the collision avoidance will

tell. >> you traffic is in front of you, it'll announce it. and if you need. >> to take an. >> action, it'll direct you. climb, climb, descend. as you get closer to the ground. rightfully so. that audio becomes inhibited on my aircraft. >> below 500ft. >> that audio doesn't come up. the alert is there. >> but if. >> i'm looking. >> outside the airplane. >> to land. >> and that's where. >> i. should be. >> focused, there shouldn't be any any traffic. >> at that low altitude. so there's a lot of systems that are there. >> to protect us. but it it's possible that some of those systems. >> there was. >> there was a, a proper. >> hole and. >> here we are. >> but it gets into the realm of trying to speculate. and we just don't want to do that. >> you got. >> to know though, is dca is. >> a compact. >> airspace and flying at night is a challenge there. >> but but that's what i wanted to get to. so dca obviously is this sort of super busy airport. they're landing planes almost

every two minutes, in some cases even less than that. and then in addition to that, you add on the just the number of helicopters, increasing number of helicopters, it appears to be in the skies broadly around major metropolitan areas, including washington dc. you're seeing it in new york city, obviously, places like laguardia are also airports that are super busy and have tight spaces to get those planes in and down. and i just wonder, as we start to think more long term about helicopter use, by the way, drones and everything else, how easy or challenging this is all going to be to maintain just this number of vehicles in the skies in this kind of close, compact spaces. andrew. >> you nailed it. >> as technology. >> and these these vehicles. come along, we better. have regulations and technology to ensure. >> that when something goes. >> awry, that error is trapped.

it is ever important. and we're on a hill ironically there and we're in in the business center saying, if you do. >> this, you got to make. >> sure you do it right. so you're right. and what regulators what what is the procedure. >> for the helicopters. >> those other aircraft flying in that very dense airspace very. close to us. and what's not. >> so much you may have the regulation. >> up there, but what. if an error happens? how do we trap that? what is the system that traps that? because you only have seconds as. evidence in this tragedy. >> dennis, i want to thank you for your perspective this morning. as as we've said all all morning, our sympathies go out to everybody involved in this situation. of course, the families we should note right now that nbc washington, the affiliate there reporting more than 30 bodies have been recovered during the search and rescue operations thus far, according to two sources familiar with those search efforts. the next briefing on the crash is going to come at 7:30 a.m. eastern time. we will bring you that live this morning. squawk box continuing

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>> impressive and. >> it's super compute efficient. >> we're not just about managing information. we're about. >> supplying digital workers. >> now we're making. >> this transformation of digital labor. >> we got some fresh earnings. caterpillar out with quarterly results earnings of 514 a share. it's $0.12 better than expectations but revenue falling 5% over the prior year to 16.22 billion. missing estimates of 16.39 billion. operating profit margin was 18% in the fourth quarter. that is down from 18.4% the prior year. you see the shares down about 3% $12. that'll be good for about 75 points net off the dow. >> tesla earnings and revenue falling short of estimates. the stock fell. >> on the. >> news but has since rebounded up about 2.5%. joining us now garrett nelson cfra research senior analyst. so garrett, what do you make of the moves given

kind of the fundamentals relative to some of the commentary. on unsupervised full self-driving robotaxi updates? humanoid robot is that really what investors are paying attention to? >> yeah, thanks for having me. >> so i think. >> what we're seeing is, once again, investors continuing to be very forgiving of the plethora of near-term challenges facing tesla. here, you had a. sizable miss. both on the top. >> line and the. >> bottom line for q4. you had disappointing vehicle sales growth for the quarter. you have ev prices under pressure. their average sales price was down $3,000 from q3, more than $3,000, and. >> you had management seemingly. >> back off their prior vehicle sales growth guidance that they provided for 2025. >> and that's. >> because investors are more focused on the long term opportunity in autonomous driving. and there was good news there. they expect to. launch

unsupervised full self-driving in the austin market by mid-year. and so i think investors are still very focused on the long term opportunity in the stock. and we think tesla is very much on track there. and i would describe elon musk's tone on the conference call as beyond optimistic. it was really euphoric. and so, you know, that really fed the move in the stock. after hours. >> yeah i think euphoric is a good a good way to describe it. you think the change in outlook is. a positive for the stock. do you think it's more attainable for this company. >> well candidly. >> elon musk has a long history of not exactly hitting certain guidelines. >> you know, not. >> not being on track. and so but this is so near-term i mean, you're talking in the next 5 to 6 months that we do think that that, you know, it's a catalyst

that's right in front of us. so, you know, despite the stock's run up really since the election we still see more upside here. and that's why we reiterate our buy rating. and we see over 35% upside in the stock here over the next 12 months. it's really incredible when you look at and we've been tracking the improvements that they've made in their full self-driving software ever since, incorporating ai into the development throughout version 12, and now they're on version 13. it's really been staggering. the improvements that they've made their their vehicles now come right off the production line and drive themselves to the loading dock for delivery to customers. so it's really pretty incredible what we're seeing. >> garrett, you mentioned, you know, you reiterated your buy, raised the target. but i mean to say that investors are focused on this, you know, the imagined huge future opportunities a bit of an understatement. your your price target of $540 a share is 140 times 2026 estimates. now

you've had to reduce estimates for this year and next, because the car business obviously is struggling just a little bit to grow. we have a $1.25 trillion market cap on tesla. waymo raised capital at like a $50 billion value last year. i mean, you can't even find waymo within alphabet. so why are we giving like how much of tesla right now is them catching up and exceeding waymo tomorrow. >> yeah, it's really you know and that's 2026 earnings. you really have to take a longer term intermediate term view of the earnings potential here. you know looking out towards the end of the decade. and when you look at it, say in 2029 2030 earnings the stock looks quite inexpensive still. and we really. >> think what. >> has happened, what has happened to the five year expected earnings of tesla in the last five years? >> so they're much closer to. >> they've gone down. >> well, the story here is they're going to transition from being a very low margin,

relatively low margin auto manufacturer inherently a low margin industry to being a very high margin software sales company, essentially as as the full self-driving value becomes more apparent to consumers and as demand increases. so that's how we see it. we think, you know, the margin opportunity, margin expansion opportunity is very significant looking out over the over that time frame. and so i think investors are still focused, you know, at least a few years down the road. and we are as well. >> all right. >> garrett nelson. >> thank you so much. >> thank you. >> okay. coming up, an update on the traffic impact from new york city's new congestion toll. that is next. and later blackstone's john gray joins us. that's the first on cnbc. squawk box is going to be right back. >> in a world of uncertainty and disruption. how will your investments stay resilient?

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three vetted fiduciary. financial advisors@smartasset.com. >> new data from the new york metro transport authority shows the morning commute into manhattan is getting shorter for most people. congestion pricing began on january 5th, with most drivers paying $9 during peak hours to enter manhattan below 60th street. since then, an average of 553,000 vehicles entered that area on weekdays. that's about 33,000 fewer vehicles per day on those streets. that's a drop of about 5% from the mta's baseline estimate. average morning travel time fell by nearly half on the holland tunnel, and it fell by 30% in both the queensboro bridge and williamsburg bridge, which linked brooklyn to manhattan subways just slightly more. i was going to say not a ton, but there was capacity there because they were, you know, not as busy. >> was. >> their capacity post-pandemic.

every time i get, oh, well, post-pandemic. >> yeah. >> but yeah. >> every time i get. >> on the subway, i. >> feel like it's like. >> jostling for space. for some space. >> you got to go early. >> yeah. >> well, that's. >> areas management is providing a $275 million credit facility in a company called id.me, according to people familiar with the matter. ars is also in talks to make a minority equity investment in id.me at a valuation to be determined in the next few months. those people say id.me is a digital identity wallet that allows individuals to securely prove their identities online while interacting with government agencies, health care organizations and consumer brands. the company was last valued at $1.8 billion during a tender offer led by ribbit capital in november. and i'm told that latest credit financing deal with ares will be announced this morning. all right. coming up, stock futures pointing to a higher open right now. we'll talk technicals after the break.

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>> experience the power of cnbc pro. track your portfolio from every angle on one optimized platform. become a smarter investor with the power of cnbc pro. go to cnbc.com slash get pro now. >> all right let's take a look at the market technicals. joining us now katie stockton fairlead strategies founder and managing partner and a cnbc contributor katie great to have you here. thank you for coming in. >> good to be here. >> monday was interesting. kind of a pretty good shudder in the nasdaq obviously led down by nvidia. did it mean anything. was it consequential in terms of the trend. >> i think it was in. >> a way. >> so we've. >> been calling this. >> an abc corrective wave. >> you know elliott wave analysis. >> it's not. >> really our thing. but indeed corrections tend to unfold. >> in three waves. right. you get the first wave. that's your a wave.

>> and we. >> had that starting in december. so we were thinking that. >> the rebound. >> which was really pretty. >> explosive was the b wave. >> and they are often explosive. it's counterintuitive in that when. >> you see. >> those big. >> sharp relief. >> rallies, they're actually more likely to be countertrend. it just has to do with market sentiment. and then of course. >> the abrupt gap. >> down basically. >> took us out of that b wave. >> so we. >> think that. >> we've, you know, initiated. >> a c wave to this corrective phase. >> now. now we're seeing obviously day to day you're going to have today you have the futures indicated higher on the nasdaq. you have the earnings reactions. what are we looking for in terms of ultimately what has to be accomplished with this correction? and does it exist within a longer term uptrend, or is this. >> for sure? i mean. it's a. >> secular bull market indeed. >> but we do think that this year. >> will be more of a. >> cyclical trading range, something to ultimately. >> refresh that bull. >> market cycle. and that's based on some things that we're seeing on a long term chart. >> the s&p.

>> 500 has sell signals from the demark indicators for one. >> and that would. >> have implications. >> for about. >> 8 to 9 months. of just choppy trading. doesn't need to be a bear market cycle to get the sentiment back in check. but indeed, i think that. >> the ai. >> news, the ai has. >> been the driver of. >> the market, really. >> and it showed how. >> important that is to the market. >> so we feel. >> that the sentiment needs. >> to get to a place where it's a bit more bearish, frankly. and that's what a correction does. >> the broad market obviously has kind of lost the very clear, strong leadership of semiconductors and broader technology coming into this year. really at the back half of last year, everybody seems to want a more inclusive market. the broadening has become a cliche. is it happening and is that a positive thing in terms of in other words, are we going to get absolute gains from other stocks or is it just going to be a relative? >> no. >> the breadth actually wasn't that bad last year. >> we had decent participation, but. >> it. >> was really. >> the leadership that. >> was very narrow. and we have lost that leadership in a way. >> right. especially microsoft.

>> apple, you've seen those. >> corrective phases. >> become really very pronounced, and. microsoft just can't get away from its 200 day moving average, which is now rolling over. so i do think that's meaningful. >> and i do. >> see some rotation starting to unfold into those more defensive areas of the market. >> we use something called a relative. >> rotation graph, and. >> it shows that the defensives are probably among. the best. positioned sectors. in a relative. >> performance wise. >> for the. >> next six months. >> or so, which is sort of surprising. it's hard. >> to make a strong case when you look at the downtrend and consumer staples. >> for. one versus. >> the s&p 500, but. >> there's a loss. >> of downside momentum there that's meaningful. >> what about the ten year and the yield there. what are you what are the technicals telling you about a. potential consolidation phase. we've seen so much volatility. and obviously that has interplay with the equity markets as well. >> we believe yields will work higher but probably in less. >> dramatic fashion than they have done recently. and they broken out from a downtrend

channel and now are consolidating i think. we're looking for more consolidation to refresh. this uptrend. >> which of course was really quite steep. but that breakout from. >> the downtrend channel. >> also saw a breakout in the dollar index. so we are looking for follow through. >> so you think 4.7 at that. >> you know 4.7. >> is a resistance level. and then. >> secondarily it's 5 to 5. >> and a quarter. >> we wouldn't rule out 5. >> to 5. >> and a quarter this year. >> all right katie great to get the update. thanks so much. all right. >> okay. meantime cnbc parent company comcast just reporting quarterly results. want to walk you through what's happening. the company earning $0.96 a share $0.10 better than estimates. revenue coming in at $31.92 billion. that also topped expectations. adjusted ebitda up about 10% during the 7:45 point eight $1 billion. that's versus an estimate of $8.55 billion. now running through some of the other metrics to tell you about peacock's revenue grew 46% last year to $4.9 billion. studios

adjusted ebitda increased 11% to $1.4 billion for the full year, driven by kung fu panda four. despicable me four also wicked on that list, of course, and then connectivity and platforms revenue grew nearly 5% to 11.5 billion in the fourth quarter, basically in line for the most part with expectations. we'll tell you about content and experiences. revenue and ebitda topped estimates. the revenue beat, driven by theme parks. now, comcast generated $12.5 billion in free cash flow last year, and it returned about $13.5 billion to shareholders. you're looking at the stock moving higher on the back of that news now up about 2% up at about 3816. i don't know. >> that's a solid report. >> it's a it's a good report. of course it is our parent company. but i'm biased but it's a solid report. the market pandering i think the market likes it and. >> not kung fu pandering. >> for not one. very nice, very

nice. but i think that was a wicked good pun. the peak, the peacock number i think is something that for sure, you know, the market's going to get very excited about because there's been a big question mark over just what that streaming platform can do. does it need to be consolidated with others? you know, how much heft do you really need. and then to see it really performing the way it has, i think is something that's going to make the market excited, though, i should say, as we've been talking, as i said, it went up to about 2%. now we're down about 1.5%. you got to let's i've noticed with this stock in particular, just because i do follow it carefully. the immediate moves in the, in the 2 or 3 minutes after are not always the same moves that you see two hours later when the market opens. >> you'll find that. >> a little bit of digestion. >> many stocks if you follow them closely. that is true. that is true. that's true. >> with ours. i'm i have an acute sense of this one good reason. meantime, we'll get back to the comcast news and go through some of that. but we do have this developing story that

we do have to bring you this morning. and we say with great sympathy, because there is a great tragedy that took place in the skies just outside of washington, dc last night. a military military helicopter colliding with an american airlines jet near reagan national airport this morning. the search and rescue operations continue in the icy potomac river, where both aircrafts plunged after that crash. so far, no survivors have been located. at least 67 people on boards of both of those aircrafts, collectively, some members of the u.s. figure skating team are believed to be among the victims. and we are all praying for a miracle at this point. eamon is at the scene on the potomac river. eamon, walk us through what happened and where things stand right now. >> andrew. the first emergency call was 8:48 p.m. last night. investigators were on the scene. search and rescue on the scene ten minutes after that. we're now getting daylight here, just on the scene, getting our first live look in the daylight of the

crash scene. i can tell you that park police helicopters are now circling overhead. they seem to be orbiting that site on the far side of the potomac river, across from where we are standing in alexandria, virginia. that will be the d.c. side of the river, where search and rescue efforts are focused right now. tragedy deepening this morning as our nbc affiliate here in washington, d.c, is reporting multiple sources to them saying that officials have recovered more than 30 bodies from the site of the wreckage here. so the death toll here is tragic and expected to get worse as the hours continue, because we are now more than nine hours after this incident and no reports of any survivors have come in so far. andrew, i can tell you also that the conditions on this river. the river is deep today. it is flowing quickly today and it is very cold. we know that this is the highest level the water has been at for days. the water is moving at its fastest rate since tuesday last week. the water temperature just at 32°f. very

very cold. this river was iced over entirely last week, to the point where you could almost walk across the potomac river, something we rarely see here in washington, d.c. so that gives you a sense of the conditions that crews have been working in throughout the night as they try to hope against hope in terms of finding somebody alive in that wreckage. i can also tell you, andrew, there is sort of an eerie silence here in this area. we are just to the south of ronald reagan national airport, which is just to my right, your left here. and typically this area, every couple of minutes is awash in sound from aircraft, aircraft landing, taking off at national airport. it is very loud here. normally today all we hear are those helicopters circling the area looking for any survivors, any bodies. so this is a very difficult scene. they say they expect ultimately, reagan national airport will be closed until 11 a.m. this

morning. no flights in or out until that hour. and we are expecting at the bottom of this hour, 7:30 a.m. eastern. we are expecting an additional briefing from officials on site to give us a sense of what else they know at this point. andrew, back over to you. >> okay, eamon, thank you for that report. and as i said, we are all hoping for a miracle. for more on the airspace in the area and how this may have happened given the density of traffic over reagan. so many of us on this broadcast have spent a lot of time landing in places like reagan. so i think we know it well. phil lebeau joins us to talk about that. phil. >> yeah. >> andrew, it's not uncommon when you are taking off or landing at reagan national to look out your window and to see relatively close, but not right next to you, but relatively close. black hawk helicopters flying around. given all of the air bases that are around there and the traffic. the pentagon's not far away. look, that has been the case for years. so it brings up the question, why was there this collision last night? look, we won't know the final

answer, probably for weeks in terms of the root cause of this. but this video here, security cam footage. take a look at that light that's moving towards this is looking from the airport. that light is the american airlines regional jet. and then you see another light going into it. and that that pop there that we believe is the mid-air explosion where the black hawk helicopter collided with the american airlines regional jet. so now it has the question of, well, was the jet or the aircraft or the helicopter in the wrong place? we don't know at this point, but we do know that that short runway at the top there, runway 33, that's where the american airlines plane was landing. and that runway one, the long runway there, that is the busiest runway, busiest runway in this country. and this is a very congested area. here is the ceo of american airlines talking last night before he headed to dc. >> we understand and appreciate the people. >> are eager for information.

>> please know that we'll continue to share accurate and timely information as soon as we can, but anything we must. report must be accurate. >> robert isom, by the way, along with the american airlines go team now in washington, dc, eamon talked about press conference that's going to be coming up at the bottom of the hour. so here's what's next in terms of this investigation and the events today. there will be a press conference coming up at 730. we'll see if they have more details specifically revolving around did they find the black boxes from both aircraft? reagan national is closed at least until 11 a.m. right now, and then we'll see whether or not they open it up or if they're going to extend it being closed for a while. as you take a look at shares of american, likely going to be under a little bit of pressure today, but that is not going to be the concern of people right now. this always happens after an accident. andrew, you see shares of particular airline that is involved under a little bit of pressure. this is the first u.s. airline crash since 2009. it's

been a nice long stretch here with no accidents, in part because when there have been accidents in the past and this will be the case here, andrew, they analyze what happened, what went wrong, what changes need to be made to the system. and you can bet that over time, over the months to come, that will likely be the case here in terms of the air traffic around reagan national, whether or not changes need to be made. >> phil, to that point, there's a question and i was going back to remember what was happening. there was a lot of effort at one point, if you remember, by delta, to lobby for more slots at reagan, at reagan national, you remember there was a period of time, actually, where united was fighting that. and i'm not suggesting that has anything to do with it, but i am i am wondering how much has the faa or others relented to the efforts by the airlines to bring more traffic to reagan? and whether you think, given that they were landing these planes, as we said, you know, less than

two minutes, it appears apart, which leaves very little room for error, you know, how do you think that that may get rethought, not just at reagan, but potentially at other airports? >> well, and that also ties into the air traffic control system in this country. andrew, i have covered this beat for more than 20 years. do you know what i hear from everybody? every time there's a new administration, we're going to update the air traffic control situation in this country. therefore, it'll be more efficient. it can handle more aircraft because the demand is there and it's going to continue to increase, not just at reagan national, but at all airports. and as a result, increasingly, you hear people, airlines, regulators, those who work for airports, everybody says the same thing, get the system updated to be as efficient as possible. now, we're not saying that air traffic control is the reason for this collision last night, but that is a key component of any discussion about air traffic

congestion, whether it's at reagan national or some other airport, it can be improved, it should be improved. >> so i mean, even phil, the other piece of this though is radar. what kind of radar systems both the plane had. it was a regional jet, a smaller jet. what kind of radar was on the helicopter, how radar works at these lower altitudes, as you're getting ready to land. correct. and as we were talking to dennis earlier, the pilot from the pilot association of american airlines, the alert system, as you're landing and you get lower in altitude, that while it may alert you graphically, meaning an alert on the computer screen of the of the plane, it does not alert you audibly. so it just to me raises all sorts of questions. of course, i'm sure i'm a neophyte when it comes to you're. >> 100% all of this. and look, in the midst of all this, andrew, we don't know what the black boxes, the data recorder

and the cockpit voice recorders are going to show. they will show if a piece of equipment malfunctioned. we don't know. was that a factor here? was there some type of pilot confusion by one or both of the pilots? these are all questions that the ntsb will figure out. the fact that the ntsb is so close to the accident scene. they had investigators there last night. they're looking for the black boxes. they may already have the black boxes. we don't know. we may find out at 730. and they can quickly analyze those. i think we get answers fairly quickly with this investigation just because of its location, relative to all of the investigators and all of the equipment that's used to analyze why an accident took place. >> phil lebeau, thank you. appreciate it. you bet. >> all right. still to come, former cleveland fed president loretta mester talks about the fed's rate path. comments from chair powell yesterday and a lot

chair powell yesterday and a lot more. we'll be right back. ♪♪ amazing. jerry, you've got to see this. i've seen it. trust me, after 15 walks, it gets a little old. ugh. stop waiting. start investing. e*trade ® from morgan stanley. never been closer to. >> the heart of this country. straight down exists thanks to american manufacturing and the movement to celebrate all things american made. >> we love this game. >> and we love this country. join us on this journey to bring back american made. work hard.

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strategies. >> great to get your first reaction to this print we got from nvidia. >> and when the ceos have a big announcement they come here first. what's your take. >> on not just the quarter but how things look from. >> here helping you make the right moves. >> this has been a key number. the street was watching. >> a wild hour of

>> welcome back. let's take a look at. >> the. >> futures at this hour. a little bit of a mixed picture for an implied open. for the dow. down about 45 points. the nasdaq up about 71 points. and that's the implied open there. let's get a look at this morning's pre market movers with dom chu. hey dom. >> hey good morning leslie. good morning mike. good morning andrew. so we'll check on the big tech names this morning. on the heels of earnings reports yesterday shares of tesla right now regaining some ground after its report up about 1.75%. the ev maker missing on both profit and revenues for the quarter, with automotive revenues dropping 8% on a year over year

basis. but tesla's bitcoin holdings leading to a $600 million pop in net income. with recent changes to how companies report digital assets and their values. so tesla shares getting a bit of a boost. they're a little less volatile than we thought it was going to be given the options pricing going in. also, shares of microsoft falling this morning, even as the software giant beats on both profits and revenues for the quarter. but it missed on a few key metrics, cloud revenues falling short of expectations. they also gave softer guidance as well, renewing some concerns on ai spending and growth. so microsoft shares just down about 4% right now. and we'll end on shares of facebook parent meta platforms climbing higher. but moving off the highs of this morning we're up 1%. the social media giant reporting better than expected earnings, with the firm's ai chatbot surpassing 700 million monthly active users. that's up from 600 million in december. ceo mark zuckerberg saying that the firm will not slow ai spending and sees a closer working relationship with president trump's administration

in the coming year. so, leslie meta platforms microsoft and tesla a huge focus, a little bit less volatile across the board for those three big reports. i'll send things back over to you. >> absolutely, tom. thank you. fed chair jay powell yesterday announcing the central bank will hold rates steady for now. joining us with. >> reaction. >> former cleveland fed president loretta mester. >> she is also. >> a cnbc contributor. thank you for being here. so what did you make of the press conference. what were your key takeaways. >> yeah i mean. >> they're walking. >> a fine line. >> they want to basically say. look. things. >> have been. >> settled in a good place for the economy at this point, but we don't know whether. >> inflation is going to resume. >> moving down. so this is a good place to hold. >> and wait. >> and i think that's what's. >> going. >> to be. >> sort of. >> characterizing fed policy for the next several meetings. they don't have any urgency to. >> move rates. >> down as they were moving them down last fall. because the labor. market is really strong, growth is very strong. >> it's above trend.

>> so they can sort of take their time, assess things. and of course, the. >> thing that. >> chair powell did not want to talk about at all, and he navigated that pretty well in the press conference, was what was going to happen with fiscal policy. he essentially said it could go in any direction. he didn't mention that the staff is assessing different scenarios, but that they haven't come up with any determination. i think eventually he's going to have to be starting. >> to talk about that. >> because that's going to. >> influence both. >> the employment part of the mandate and also the inflation part of the mandate. so at some point, he's going to have to give us more clarity on how the committee is thinking about that. but yesterday it was basically a things are steady. we're going to keep things where they are for a while. >> they did take. >> out of the. statement comment that inflation has made progress. and i think, you know, he downplayed that in the press conference. he said that was just cleaning up language. but i think it was an important change because it basically says that they haven't seen the progress they need to see. and again,

that justifies holding rates steady in january while they cut in december. and i think that was really a rationale for holding steady yesterday. >> interesting. in terms of the fiscal picture you mentioned, eventually he will have to address it. what do you think he will say about it, and how can he address it in a way that doesn't go into the political discourse that he has fought so tirelessly to kind of stay out of? >> i mean, i think. >> what you have to do is really talk about how fiscal policy affects the both parts of the mandate. what are the what are they assuming about how it will affect. >> the transmission. >> of the fiscal policy? so you don't want them to anticipate fiscal policy? that hasn't happened yet. but once they get more clarity on where fiscal policy is headed and what actually has been proposed and enacted, they're going to need to talk about what they see. the impact of those fiscal policies are on the economy. for example,

deportations could have a big effect on labor supply that then affects the achievement of that part of the mandate. right. we saw labor markets very tight coming out of the pandemic, and that impacted both the maximum employment part of the mandate and of course, inflation. so they're going to have to steer really talking about what the implications of fiscal policy are for the achievement of the dual mandate goals. and if they focus on that, i think they can stay away from the political part of it, not to give any clarity at all about their thinking and only putting out forecasts that don't really talk about what the assumptions are, i don't think is the kind of clarity that the american public wants at this point, or that the markets would want at this point. we've seen interest rates go down on the short end, but up on the long end. and i think part of that is because the markets are concerned about what's happening on the fiscal side of the house. >> yeah. >> loretta. >> thank you very much for

joining us. appreciate it. thanks. >> all right. still to come, we'll talk about some of last night's big tech earnings, which are moving around the indexes this morning. and we'll have much more on that horrific midair collision between an american airlines regional jet and an army black hawk helicopter. we are minutes away from a press conference update. we'll bring it to you live squawk box. we'll be right back. >> time now for today's aflac trivia question. which company is the largest makers of personal computers? the answer personal computers? the answer when squawk box ♪ (action music) ♪ woah! i can't do it! agh! cut! this gap! it's just too big. bring on the double! aflac! after my hospital stay, aflac helped close the gap by paying me cash for expenses health insurance didn't cover. nothing covers gaps better than the aflac duck. aflaaaaac! aflac. get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. find an agent, get a quote at aflac.com.

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folks have been looking at at blackrock. blackstone, i should say, as it relates to real estate. higher interest rates, of course, pushing down portfolio values. we're going to get to talk about all of this. the stock actually moving higher though on the back of this news. a little over 1.5% this morning because we've got ceo or not because of but we're going to be able to talk all about this with the company's president and ceo, john gray. he's going to join us at 8 a.m. eastern time in a first on cnbc interview. and i also want to get into not just the real estate piece of it, but think about data centers. they've made a huge investment in the data center business quite successfully. >> yeah. >> about $70 billion worth, i believe, in data centers coming up. much more on that mid-air collision between an american airlines regional jet and an army black hawk helicopter. officials set to give another officials set to give another update. we'll bring it to you (♪♪) car, this isn't the way home. that's right james, it isn't. car, where are we going? we're here.

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>> elevated design. >> for thoughtful. >> living therma. >> tracking, a flood of big tech results. microsoft earnings and revenues topped estimates, but azure cloud growth slowed from previous quarter rates. beta meta beat the street on top and bottom lines. meantime, tesla fell short on both metrics as automotive revenue declined 8% from a year earlier. this afternoon we're going to hear from apple. joining us now, doug clinton, founder and ceo of

intelligent alpha. doug, we're hearing about ceos capex plans, what they think about the opportunity. and then we have to figure out the market's expectation, whether they're getting credit for it. has anything changed with the recent reports? >> i would. >> say not much, mike. >> i mean. >> the focus. >> for this earnings period has. >> absolutely been. >> deep. >> seek after what happened on monday, kind of the route and the rejiggering of expectations in terms of what. >> investors think about this capex build. did we learn anything new? >> no. but i think we did get more confirmation from microsoft. from meta. >> that. >> they are going to continue. >> to spend. >> on capex to build into this ai boom. >> and i. >> would. >> say the even. >> more important thing we. >> learned yesterday. >> mike. >> was dario amodei. >> from anthropic. he came out with probably the most detailed analysis of deep c and gave a pretty hearty, i think, endorsement of continuing. >> this heavy. >> capex spend. and i think that's the most important thing for. >> the ai. >> trade right now. >> you know, microsoft, in the year after chatgpt was unveiled,

november of 2022, was up 50%. it was the clearest, earliest net winner, at least in the market's perception since that first year. it's been a laggard. and now we see the stock trading down today. is microsoft getting kind of sidelined or displaced as a play with leverage to the ai trend? >> i don't. >> think it is. and so. >> to. >> be clear. microsoft is. >> a stock we own in our. ai selected fund livermore. so our ai models have selected microsoft as an ai winner. >> the reason. >> i don't. >> think they're getting sidelined is because they did have $13 billion in run rate ai revenue, which is, i think, a little better than investors expected. they're getting. >> hit a little bit. >> today because the azure growth just hasn't been there. some of that is due to supply constraints. but i think the big story is they've talked. about this back. half acceleration. >> that. >> now they've sort of backed off on. and so we'll see what they kind of say next quarter. >> that could. >> be a. >> little. >> bit more of. >> a. >> make or break in terms of

what it. >> looks like going forward for microsoft. >> and then tesla. i mean, pretty weak, you know, performance in terms of the auto business, you know, even the earnings that they did report were not really core in some respects. it was about the bitcoin holdings. obviously the market kind of doesn't care. it's a bit of a meme stock. it's $1.2 trillion market cap based on a lot of other stuff. how would you even approach it? >> look, tesla's not. >> one that. >> we own at. >> intelligent alpha. you know, we think it's a great company. elon talked a lot about them. >> sort of being. >> a real world ai leader, which i think is probably fundamentally true. but you do have to believe in a lot of the stuff. >> that's coming forward. whether that's unsupervised fsd, which elon spent a lot. >> of time talking about. optimus. >> right. robotaxi, you. >> really need. >> to believe. >> that all those things sort of work for. tesla to get comfortable with. >> the stock. price and our. >> ai models. >> that intelligent alpha just aren't there yet. >> gotcha. doug. got to leave it there. i appreciate the time this morning. thank you. >> thanks, mike. >> okay. meantime, joining us right now is we were going to go

to billy nolan. but right now a press conference is taking place right near the potomac after the tragic events of last night. i want to get straight over to that press conference. they're beginning to speak in just moments. but it appears the press conference has yet to begin. but of course, so many questions. >> about what? good morning. i'm muriel bowser. i'm the mayor of washington, d.c. we are here at reagan national airport to provide an update on the tragic events of last night. i'm joined by u.s. transportation secretary sean duffy. d.c. fire ems chief john john donnelly. american airlines ceo robert isom. the mwaa, the washington metropolitan washington airports

authority ceo jack carter, un united states senator. mark warner, united states senator tim kaine, u.s. representative don beyer, as well as the chief of the metropolitan police department, pamela smith. and we are joined by first responders from across the metropolitan washington region. i speak for all of us when i say, and certainly all washingtonians, how very sad we are for american airlines, for the united states department of defense, and for all americans, for the loss of life that happened with the collision of these aircrafts. we know that includes families from across our region, as well as in kansas and across the country. this morning, we all share in a profound sense of grief. i do want to thank the first responders who acted quickly

last night, who ran towards danger, went into a very frigid river, and have worked throughout the night. chief donnelly reported in last night's last night's briefing that we have a strong mutual aid agreement in our region, and those teams have worked together throughout the night and really tough and heartbreaking conditions, and we should all thank them for their heroic efforts. so we'll have several updates today. i'm first going to turn to the secretary of transportation, sean duffy, and then you will hear directly from chief john donnelly with a situational update. >> thank you. >> mayor again. sean duffy. >> here. >> secretary of transportation. >> we wish we. were gathering for a different purposes today. i just want to let you know that the. >> department of transportation. >> the faa. >> along with the white. >> house. >> president trump.

>> local, state and. >> federal partners all. working together on this incident. >> in unison. >> i couldn't be prouder of this team that's been assembled. >> working tirelessly. i want to thank you specifically for your work. >> a few. >> details i'd. >> like to give all. >> of you. >> and some of you have reported this, but last night, if you live in the dc area, you would know that this was a clear night last night. >> the helicopter. >> was in a standard pattern. if you live in the dc area, you'll see helicopters up and down. >> the river. this flight pattern is seen oftentimes when you live in dc. this was a standard flight pattern last night as well. >> the american. >> airlines flight coming in to land was in a standard flight pattern. as it was coming into dca. so this was not unusual with a military aircraft flying the river and aircraft landing. at dca. and again, if you live in the area, you'll see that

frequently with those two aircraft. >> working together. >> as many of you have reported. >> we have. >> located the. >> two aircrafts. >> the fuselage of the american airlines plane. >> was inverted. >> it's been located in three different sections. it's in about waist deep water. so that recovery is going to go. >> on today. >> as that recovery takes place of the of the fuselage of the aircraft. the ntsb is going to start to analyze that aircraft, partner with the. >> faa with all. >> the information we. have to get the best results possible. for the american people. i would just say that safety is our expectation. everyone who flies in. american skies expects that we fly safely. >> that when you. >> depart an airport, you get to

your destination. that didn't. >> happen last. >> night. and i know. >> that president. >> trump, his administration, the faa, the dot. >> we will not rest. >> until we have. answers for the families and for the flying public. you should be assured that when you fly, you're safe. >> thank you. >> yours. >> thank you. secretary. thank you mayor. i'm joined today by with fire chief barnet from the. >> metropolitan washington airports authority. >> and i'm john donnelly, chief of the district of columbia fire and ems department. last night at 848. the control tower sounded an alert. which alerts responders to respond to a report of an aircraft crash on or. near the airport. >> that sets. >> off an. >> immediate response. from the airport authority. >> fire department. >> from the district. >> of columbia and. >> metropolitan harbor.

>> patrol fire boats and other fire boats on the river in order. >> to. >> support that. type of operation. >> very quickly this call escalated. it became apparent. >> you know. >> the responders realized that they had a plane crash. and immediately escalated to a response that ultimately included about. 300 people last night. these responders found extremely frigid conditions. they found heavy wind. they found ice on the. >> water, and. >> they are operated all night in those conditions. a moment to acknowledge the agencies that responded. >> in addition. >> to d.c. >> fire and. >> ems and the metropolitan. >> washington airports authority. >> montgomery county. >> fire department. >> the prince. >> george's county fire. >> department, the. >> charles county. >> fire department, the baltimore county. >> police department. the anne arundel county fire department, the alexandria. >> fire. >> department, the arlington. >> county fire department, the. >> fairfax fire department. the prince william fire department, the. >> baltimore city police

department, the maryland state police, the. >> maryland natural. >> resources police, the department of defense. >> the joint base. >> in bolling. >> fire department. and the staff. >> there the us army, the. >> us coast guard, the united. states park police, the metropolitan. >> police department. >> the fbi. >> and the ntsb. >> despite all those efforts, we are now at a point where we are switching from a rescue operation to a recovery operation. >> at this point. >> we don't believe there are any survivors from this. >> accident, and we. >> have. >> recovered 27 people. from the. >> plane and one from the helicopter. >> the district. >> office of the medical. >> examiner has lead on. reuniting these. >> bodies and. >> these people with their loved. >> ones. >> and we will. continue to. >> work to. >> find all the bodies and collect. >> them and reunite. them with their loved ones. >> we should also acknowledge. >> that the virginia.

>> medical examiner. and the. army medical examiner are involved in. this operation, and a very important part of getting people identified. so. >> our hearts are certainly with all of the crew in american airlines. and we'll hear from ceo isom. >> soon. >> thank you mayor. >> good morning. i'm robert isom, the ceo of american airlines. i want to express my sincere condolences for the accident that happened at dca last night. we're absolutely heartbroken for the family and loved ones, of the passengers and crew members, and also for those that were on the military aircraft. our focus right now is doing everything that we can to support all of those involved. and also the psa airlines team. this is devastating. it's we are

all hurting incredibly. we urge any family and friends looking for information about their loved ones to call our designated helpline. and that's at. one (800) 679-8215. one (800) 679-8215. and here's what i can share at this early stage. american airlines american eagle flight 5342, operated by psa airlines, traveling from wichita, kansas to reagan national airport, was involved in an accident just before 9 p.m. local time on final approach into reagan national. it collided with a military aircraft on an otherwise normal approach, and at this time, we don't know why the military aircraft came into the path of the psa aircraft. flight 5342, a

crj 700, was under the command of four crew members. it carried 60 passengers, as you know, for a total of 64 people on board. in addition to local resources already here in dc, american airlines has activated our care team. and that's a group of specialists that are trained to support these types of responses. these team members are on site or arriving soon. and additionally, we have members of our go team that are on the ground here in dc, and they're being deployed with resources to do everything that we can to take care of the needs of the families and the loved ones, of the passengers and crew members, and that is our sole focus. and we're so grateful for the first responders. they've been working through the night, courageous efforts, and we're actively working with local, state and federal authorities on emergency response efforts and closely coordinating with psa

airlines as they cooperate fully with the ntsb on the investigation. i know that there are many questions at this early stage. i just won't be able to answer many, but we'll provide additional information as it comes. thank you. >> i want to introduce the metropolitan washington airports authority ceo, jack potter. the authority manages washington, reagan, washington national and dulles international. >> good morning, and thank you, mayor. first, let me begin by expressing our condolences for all the victims of this flight and for their families. there's a lot of grieving going on. and so we're very sympathetic to that. i want to echo what was said about the first responders when there's a problem in this area. everybody drops everything and they rush to where the problem is. so i want to thank

the chief, the entire team from washington, dc. but just as important, the list of folks that the chief described, the federal authorities have been here and mass. and so a lot of effort was brought to bear. unfortunately, we weren't able to rescue anyone, but we are in the recovery mode right now. and i just want to, you know, last night i expressed the fact that we hope to open at 11:00 today and that is still the case. we're going to open the airport at 11:00. and again, condolences to the families. and thanks to the many, many who are still out there working very, very hard to complete this recovery. thank you mayor. >> i do want to acknowledge that the virginia transportation secretary is here. in addition to the alexandria mayor. and i

will like to ask members of the virginia congressional delegation to the podium next, u.s. senator mark warner, followed by tim kaine and representative don beyer. >> thank you. mayor. >> i want to join with everyone. >> else and. >> express my condolences for the victims. for folks who don't. >> live in the dmv. >> and we are made up of. >> a lot of jurisdictions. reagan airports. >> in virginia, across the river, we have maryland, obviously the district, but has been indicated by the chief. when tragedy happens, all those distinctions between the various jurisdictions and our federal partners all disappear. and i want to again thank all the first responders. on a personal note, i'll just add that literally. i now know i was coming back from the district

from a dinner to my home in old town alexandria. and while i did not see the collision, i wondered i'd never seen this many red lights streaming towards the airport and across the river in maryland about this time. my phone started blowing up and i realized that this accident had taken place. there will be a time to figure it out. i know ntsb will have a briefing later in the day. but to the victims. our condolences to the first responders. our thanks. sorrow. >> thanks and questions. >> so sorrow. >> as all have expressed. >> to the crew, to. >> the passengers, to the soldiers, to. >> their. >> families, to their friends. >> to their loved ones. >> to people. >> who. >> are still trying to get information and unsure. whether their loved ones have been lost. >> we offer our profound condolences to them and our

sorrow for this tragedy. thanks. >> i'll echo. >> mayor. >> what you. >> began with. when you see a challenge like. >> this and. >> you see people from so many different agencies. >> local. >> state, federal, with different uniforms, different badges, but working in such a coordinated way. at even in the midst of a tragedy, it does give you. a sense of appreciation and pride in people's willingness to come to the danger and work together. and i started to see that as a local official 30 years ago in richmond, and definitely have seen it here. and then finally, questions there are going to be a lot of questions, obviously, a lot of questions. and that's what the ntsb job is, is to be an independent investigator of incidents like this. and they are here we we're in dialog with them earlier today. they've been here since they got the alert. and they will be doing the work and playing lead in answering the many questions that we have. and that's as it should be. it's not a time to speculate. it's a time to investigate and get answers to the questions we need. and i have confidence that

will be done. thank you. >> following up on the senator. >> i think grief. thanks and service. >> with millions and. >> millions of. >> americans traveling. >> every year. >> we are all grieving. >> knowing that. >> it could have been our loved ones. it could have been us. and our hearts go out to all. those who have lost folks. >> in the most partizan place. >> also, it's i'm. really thankful. >> that democrats and. >> republicans, people from all over, have come together to try to make. >> sure that. >> the people are served. >> it's the local representative. >> i want the families to know that our office is available to serve. >> you in any. >> way we possibly can through. >> this time of grief. >> and transition and loss. and then also just. note that we're deeply grateful for the people who risked their lives last night on a moment's notice, and spent the whole night on the river in the. >> ice and the wind. >> do serving us. >> and then finally as as.

>> senator kaine. >> senator warner noted. >> after the. >> ntsb investigation. >> we've got. >> to. >> make sure that at the federal level and with the support of virginia and maryland, dc, we're doing everything we can to make sure this does not happen again. >> so with that, it's been said already that the national transportation safety board becomes the lead agency in the investigation. our jurisdiction and in dc, where the crash occurred over the river, is concludes as we in the leadership role of the unified command, as we shift to a recovery effort. we expect the national transportation safety board to provide briefings to the press later in the day. so at this point, we can take a few

questions. yes. did you say, without. >> a shadow. >> of a doubt, that people. >> are. >> safe to fly? what we're talking about, what we can talk about today, is what happened here with the collision of these vehicles. we said what we know and that the national transportation safety board continues to investigate. i don't know that any of us have been briefed on anything that would suggest any other aircraft or implicated. >> we have been watching officials in washington, dc walk us through the details to the extent they have them, of this tragic accident that took place last evening. >> so the. >> rescue just over the potomac. it appears now that there are no survivors, 64 souls aboard the american airlines regional jet, three aboard the black hawk helicopter. for more on all of this, we want to get to billy nolan. he's the chief safety officer at archer aviation, a

former acting administrator at the faa. our own phil lebeau is with us as well. billy, as you understand it, have been looking at just the map over over that densely populated area and trying to understand how this could have happened. your immediate thoughts? >> well, what i would say, thank you. >> again for. >> having me. >> on this morning. >> what i. >> would say right away. >> is that we're not quite. 12 hours. >> post this. >> this incident. >> and i'll just say. >> i add my thoughts. >> and prayers for the families. >> for. >> you know, for. >> american airlines. i spent a. long career there. >> let me just say it will take us some time. >> and as both. >> robert isom and as mayor bauer said, as. >> the. >> ntsb steps. >> into their role of. >> leading this. >> investigation, the. >> the. first priority. >> is number one. >> to recover. >> of all. the of all. >> the victims. >> here, both from american. airlines as well as from. the us

army. the second. will then will be the. >> recovery of the aircraft. >> both of. >> these aircraft itself. >> so that they. can start. >> the. >> process of. >> collecting data. collecting facts. >> from that. >> they'll get into an. >> analysis. >> but that will come later. the good thing if you say there's. >> a. >> good thing here, is that you've got. this whole of government approach here with the ntsb and the lead, and they're exceptionally. you know, phenomenal at what they do. so we should get answers sooner than we otherwise might. and in some other investigation in another place. >> you just you. >> just got this. >> massive support effort here. that's that's supporting this. >> billy, can i just ask you a larger policy question? as you know, and this happened at reagan, reagan itself and is happening at at airports around the country. airlines are lobbying for more and more slots for more and more traffic to go into airports, especially those at major metropolitan cities, just given the demand, frankly, for more travel by the american public. and the question is

whether our skies are too congested, whether the room for error is too little. well. >> you know. >> certainly the way we'd like to think. >> of it is that our room for error should be zero. i mean, that is our aspirational goal. if you look back in time, we've done that rather well. this is the. first commercial fatal. passenger accident in the united. states since 2009. that's you know, we're just two weeks away from the 16th year, 16th anniversary. that being said, it's always a moment when tragedy strikes. >> to take. >> it as a moment to go back and reassess where we are. i mean, there are some brilliant minds out there who are doing things around ai, etc. we have to, you know, we should take a look at our airspace. we should take a look and say, how can we make that more efficient? airlines have spent literally hundreds of hundreds of billions of dollars. if you think back over the 16 year time of new airplanes, new technology, new upgrades and the expectation is that that the

government keeps pace with that as well. the faa has got phenomenal men and women who do get up and selflessly do their job every day. we have to look at that and say, do they have all the resources they need? do they have the personnel that they need to keep not only our skies safe, but, you know, we flew we flew last year nearly a billion. a billion in planes. and just think of that number. that's the number of people getting on and off airplanes domestically and internationally, off of us airlines, almost a billion. so you put that into context over the since the last fatal accident, that's almost double the population of the entire planet. so it says to your point, our airspace is getting more congested. the number of flights are increasing. we have new technology evtols. we have drones. right. so it is it's an opportune time for us. and certainly, you know, for president trump and his administration to say, how do we make this the very best system in the world? >> hey, phil, on a very

practical level, i've now gotten a whole number of emails and text messages from from pilots, both helicopter pilots and plane pilots, of course, all of them speculating about what could have happened. but just about if you could help the audience understand how radar works at these lower elevations as flights are coming in to land, and whether the helicopters would have been communicating or doing everything by sight. there's been some speculation that, given it was a military helicopter at night, that the pilots could have been wearing night vision goggles, that limits, apparently, your sort of field of vision. is it possible that they were they were flying by sight, and even that the air traffic control folks said, do you see the plane? and they thought they saw a plane, but they were looking at the wrong plane. so just walk us through how this actually works in practice. >> well, look, it all goes through air traffic control. so the unknown here is the fact that this black hawk helicopter was on a training flight. and

the reason i bring that up is because what was being what was part of that training, andrew? was it that they did have on the night vision goggles, which some say may have restricted the pilot's vision, i don't know. i mean that those are the things that will come out during the investigation. but i hear this. i've heard this from a few people where they're like, well, are they all communicating with the same air traffic control? and billy can talk to this air traffic control. they are the authority in terms of aircraft in that area. now, whether or not one or both of the pilots were in the wrong spot or were not operating according to radar, or we're we're doing visual instead of listening to the equipment, we don't know that. and we won't know that here for some time. but air traffic control is they are the authority in terms of everything that is in the air at that time. >> hey, billy, can you speak to that? and also, can you just speak to what a training mission could even look like? and again, i know we are into speculative

ground, and i don't want to go too far out over our skis to use lots of different metaphors here. but i think as we're all trying to just understand to the extent we can, the possibilities of what could have gone wrong. >> well thank you. i again. >> i won't get into any of the speculative side. what i will say, i started my pilot career as an army aviator, as an army officer, so i know exactly how done night missions. right. and those responsibilities are there as as has already been talked about from both the mayor, from robert isom, is that, you know, this is an otherwise normal night. and we don't expect on an otherwise normal night to have something like this happen. so this will be a key focus for the national transportation safety board. what happened? how did it happen? how do we prevent it? we've done a lot around, you know, during my time at the faa, certainly from administrator whitaker and then whomever the president names next is this key focus on safety or reducing incidents. so this is an

opportunity without speculating to the ntsb, they're good at what they do. and so they will get to the bottom of this as quickly as they can. >> billy, i want to thank you for joining us this morning, helping us try to understand at least some of these issues. and i'm sure we'll talk to you again very soon. phil. of course. thank you for being all over this story. what is turning out to be a tragic incident? no survivors. it appears at this moment we're going to have a lot more on squawk box about this and more in just a moment when we come back. >> nothing stands. >> still. not technology, not the market, and not franklin templeton. >> we've been. >> a firm in motion for over 75 years, always innovating. today, we're a leader in public and private markets, digital assets and custom tax management, empowering advisors with solutions to build the solutions to build the portfolios of the future today. it's time to grow your business.

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comcast was helped by blockbuster movies like wicked and the wild robot. also a 28% jump in revenues at peacock, the streaming division. but it did lose a worse than expected 139,000 broadband subscribers. so that's helping the downside there, down about 4%. shares of construction equipment giant and dow component caterpillar are lower by roughly 5.5% right now, after reporting a mixed quarter, profits beat. revenues were a slight miss, and it was driven in part by an 8% drop in its construction division. also a 9% drop in its resource industries division. cat also said it expects to see a modest sales decline in the year 2025. and we'll cap things off with a check on shares of ups, which are down a whopping 14.5%. the package delivery and transportation logistics giant also mixed results there. better than expected profits, slightly worse than expected revenues. but the downside here is tied to the forecast. ups gave a 2025 revenue guide that was worse than expected, and it said it reached an agreement with its

largest customer to lower shipping volumes by more than 50% by the second half of 2026. it did not name the customer guys, but amazon is ups's biggest customer, so that's going to be something to watch. we're going to be getting more details. we'll be speaking with ups ceo carol tomé in a first on cnbc interview during the exchange. later on today at 1 p.m. eastern time. guys, leslie, i'll send things back over to you. >> absolutely. that's definitely one to watch, tom. thank you. over the past week, financial markets have been reacting to deep seek, a company with a collection of chinese ai models that undercut offerings like openai in cost and price. now, is the arrival of deep sea a threat to u.s. tech? it's the big question of the week. jon fortt is here to weigh in. hey, jon. >> hey, leslie. >> well, the debut of deep sea is. >> actually a good thing for u.s. tech. quick recap. deep sea. >> is a chinese ai company. >> that. started making. >> waves in tech circles in the middle of last year, but it really burst into the consciousness of the financial world early. last week when it released. >> a large language.

>> model called. >> deep sea r1. >> r1 is a reasoning. >> model like openai's. >> o1, but developed using cheaper hardware in deep. seac is. >> making its. >> work publicly available at a fraction of what rivals cost. >> so why is this a good thing? well, so. far ai has been really expensive. >> it's going to be. >> useful and world changing. >> for businesses. >> it had to get a lot more. >> affordable before deep sea, we were. >> heading to a place where only trillion dollar. >> companies could. >> afford the multi-billion dollar. >> price of admission to build out ai infrastructure. >> deep sea. >> changes that. >> it's not. >> that. >> us companies are going to switch to relying on a chinese llm and risk their data. >> the important. >> shift is that the major ai. >> model builders out there will now have to design. for efficiency. and cost, not just horsepower or risk. >> getting embarrassed by the next deep sea release. and that will make it more affordable for. >> app. makers to innovate. leslie. >> okay. >> so affordability is great. everyone wants to lower costs, but what about intangible things like safety and intellectual property? those those are

important still too, right? >> well, leslie. >> on the other hand, the arrival. >> of deep sea is terrible. >> for. >> us tech. >> because deep. >> sea. >> isn't playing by the rules. efficiency is great, sure, but so is accuracy. newsguard an organization that. >> analyzes information. >> and sources. for reliability, announced this week that deep sea. >> r1 had an. 83% fail. >> rate on news. >> related prompts. >> often either. >> repeating false claims or. giving vague answers. that's worse than the. average 62%. >> fail rate for western competitors. better yet, when prompted about ten different false. claims circulating. >> online a third. >> of the time. deep sea spouted. >> the chinese. >> government's position. and then there's the question. >> of how deep sea got. >> so. >> smart, so fast. openai says there's evidence that deep sea may have used. >> a. >> technique called. >> distillation, the. >> equivalent of stealing a classmate's. >> notes to study for a test. the classmate, in this case, openai. >> well. >> the irony is thick. >> here, because some content. >> creators have accused openai of stealing the. >> entire internet's notes. >> to study for a test, but. that's a whole different.

>> on the other hand, the. >> point here is that sacrificing. >> truth and. >> ip protections to. >> get faster, cheaper. >> answers isn't a step forward. we don't. >> need ai to be so cheap. >> that the intelligence is. actually artificial. >> good point. so in terms of ramifications for all of this, i mean. if openai's claims are correct, do they have any recourse if they, you know, if the chinese model is in fact stealing their homework? i mean, how does all of this ultimately play out? >> you know, i'm not a. >> lawyer. >> but i doubt. >> it, right? this is kind of like. >> the knockoffs. on on. >> amazon or. >> on tamu or on shein, right? >> like prove it. but then even if you do. >> if the. >> overall impact. >> is that the value of the model. >> or the perceived. >> value of the model that you're creating. >> is lower because. >> there are. >> similar or. >> close enough. >> smaller ones? yeah. >> you know, pricing gets affected. >> could be good, could. >> just rock. >> things to consider this. >> check out the on the other hand newsletter you got the. >> qr code. >> on the screen.

>> or you can type. >> in cnbc.com. >> slash otoh get the. >> full text. >> of both. >> these arguments. >> and you can share. >> it's fascinating. i'm just reading vinod khosla. did you see this saying one of our startups found that deep tech makes the same mistakes that one makes, meaning chatgpt makes a strong indication that the technology was ripped off. it feels like they then hacked some code and did some impressive optimizations on top. most likely not an effort from scratch. >> yeah, probably looking over. >> the shoulder at the test dancers. it's the. >> it's the perfect analogy to the test. if you cheat off of someone's homework and you get the same questions wrong. yeah. >> then there you go. >> you know, you give your you give it away. >> meantime, i want to talk about blackstone this morning because the private equity giant out with fourth quarter results. impressive. the company reporting earnings and revenue above analysts expectations, helped by solid investment returns and private equity. also in the credit and hedge fund business. some questions though about the real estate business. and of course we want to talk about infrastructure, real

estate and the spending on data centers. given all the questions about deep tech and its impact on all of this, i want to bring in john gray. he's the president and chief operating officer of the blackstone group. good morning to you. before we get into the whole data center question of the moment, let's just walk through the last the last quarter here because you did put up good numbers. the stock, by the way, up about 2% on the back of this earnings report this morning john. >> good morning andrew. great to. >> be with you. >> as always. it was a heck of a quarter. >> for us, one of the best. >> in our. >> 40 year history. >> earnings. >> distributable earnings up 56%. as you noted, the key drivers of our business fundraising, investing realization, we're all at the highest levels in two and a half years. >> we're very pleased. >> with that. >> but what's really exciting. >> here is the sea change we're seeing. >> in terms of. >> the openness from investors. >> towards alternatives,

towards. >> private assets. >> and you see. >> that in. >> a couple. >> of places. >> one is with individual investors. >> our private. >> wealth area, we saw. >> an 80%. >> increase in terms. >> of. >> fundraising in. >> 2024 through that channel. january was the best month we had there. >> since may. >> of 2022. >> the other. >> big area. >> is. >> private credit for institutions, for insurance. >> companies and. individuals that benefit of bringing. >> them up right to borrowers, capturing some of the excess spread there. that's really driving. high levels of growth. our credit area in real estate and corporate credit has grown from $176 billion four years. ago to $450 billion today, and it looks very bright as we go forward. so a great quarter. but this change in attitude towards alternatives is a thing that has us most excited. >> can we talk about the real estate piece of this? i'm

reading a financial times headline, blackstone's big hole keeps growing. what say you? >> so on real estate beat, which you and i have talked about a number of times, i just start with that. we've delivered 9.5% returns to our customers for eight years, beating the public reit index by 65%. we're incredibly proud of that. we've made great decisions by investing in logistics and rental housing and data centers. we focused in the southeast texas, florida, georgia. we hedged out the debt before rates went up. we've made a lot of great decisions with that. in terms of that technical question on a shortfall, there's still four years to go on. that deal we made with cal regents. and even if there is a scenario with a maximum payout, we get paid full fees along the way. we also share some of the costs with our employees. and so the net cost

of the firm is much less. but i think the bigger question is your point on real estate. and there i do think we are in the midst of a recovery. the fourth quarter was tougher, there's no question, because rates went up. but as you look forward now, the thing that gives us confidence is the way the conditions are coming together. the economy is growing strongly. that's helpful for demand and absorption. new supply is down by two thirds in areas like logistics and rental housing. and we're seeing the cost of capital come down. borrowing costs have gone from 9% to 6%. cmbs markets much stronger. so i'd say the slope of the recovery gets impacted a little bit near term by rates. but the direction of travel is clear. and that's why you've seen us really accelerate our investing in real estate. >> let me ask you one more question, which i think relates even to the larger business. and then i want to ask you about data centers on the beach front.

you know, i think that that model, the sort of quasi liquid fund model, obviously, there's been questions about it for a long time. but more importantly, in great success was going to be a model that was going to be used not just by your firm, but by many others, not just in the real estate space, but in private equity and some other kinds of spaces to have this sort of quasi liquid kind of fund available to the public in a unique way. how do you think about its success, or maybe i should say challenges in terms of your ability and other firms that are trying to be fast followers of yours to develop similar kinds of funds, and whether you think that they will or they won't going forward? >> well, we see be reit and its structure as a tremendous success. if you look at what happened to be reit, it's managed today now in the last almost year to pay out 100% of requests over its eight year lifetime. it's done that 85% of the time. and during the little

over a year where there was more of a challenge, the semi liquid structure work, we paid the money out to our customers. they got substantially all of it in just a few months. and so we designed and described these products to our customers as semi-liquid. you are trading away a little bit of liquidity for higher returns. and back to my earlier point, we generated a 65% premium in returns. and so our customers are happy. and the proof of that is when you look at our new products. we had a new product launch here in january, and 90% of the financial advisors who invested in it had invested in one of our other products, the vast majority in bqe, and more than 50% of the financial advisors had invested in our four flagship products here in the united states. so the customers recognize this work. but it's very important that the people who operate these structures have the right liquidity, the

right valuation process, and do a great job investing. and i think if we do this, this is going to grow quite a bit. >> john, as you know so well, last week we saw the emergence of deep seq, this ai model coming out of china that at least from the tests that have been scored, seem to beat or at least be comparable to things like openai and anthropic and others at potentially much lower cost, much lower energy use. and all of it raised profound questions just about the capex, the amount of spending that's been going on, both for chips, for energy and invariably infrastructure and data centers, data centers, being a business that you've had great success with, just take me inside the room a week ago when you first learned about deep seq, that there had been a collective gasp, i think across many industries and sort of how you have thought about it going forward. >> well, like everybody, we see

it as a big deal. the way we reacted was we went out and called everybody we could at our companies, our clients, in terms of those who lease space technologists generally, and we wanted to collect information. and now having the benefit of a week, i think you have a little more perspective. i'd say for us, as the largest investor in data centers, it is quite relevant. the good news is we own $80 billion of data centers, and they are long term lease to major companies. we also don't build data centers speculatively. so this is a very prudent approach. but the question really is what's the impact? and you've been talking a lot about it on your show. the cost of compute is coming way down, and the adoption and usage of ai is going to go way up. so what does it mean for the physical infrastructure? i think we got some good insights from the meta and microsoft calls

yesterday and what they said. mark zuckerberg said physical infrastructure is a strategic advantage. they talked about sort of the fungibility of these data centers. maybe there's less focus on training, maybe now more on inference, or in some cases on cloud. and so the idea that as we get more and more compute, we're still going to need a lot of physical infrastructure, we're still going to need a lot of energy and power to really make this future happen. so we continue to believe this. we think both of these areas, which are a major focus of our firm, will continue, but we're going to do it in this prudent way, and we're going to have to watch and see what happens to demand over time. >> so. >> john. given all of that, do you think that the current environment is overbuilt? would you be centers in this environment or are you going to take a pause? >> we're going to continue doing what we're doing. in fact, yesterday microsoft, i think, on the call said their their

revenue growth was constrained by not having enough data centers. today, we're going to continue to build data centers so long as our tenants are demanding them. and as i said, i believe they're going to continue to need this because i think this ai is truly going to change so many things. but the use cases change, so we respond to their needs. that's what's the nice thing about this business. we've got the capability and scale. we've got an amazing company in the us and europe. it's a great company also in asia with airtrunk and these companies with their capabilities, really deliver what the customers want. and what we're still seeing is hundreds of billions of dollars of capex spend. but what we do is tied directly to the demand signals we get from the customers. >> hey, john, one other ai related question, and i know steve schwarzman was out in davos last week where, of course, i was the, you know, topic du jour. how is ai impacting your portfolio companies in terms of employment, hiring and productivity? and i asked just

because, you know, we were talking to marc benioff last week and he was saying that he is not going to be hiring any new engineers this year, in large part because ai is helping the current engineering class effectively produce all of the code that's needed. and so he doesn't need to add new people, which of course is going to help margin long term. has that happened? when you look at your portfolio yet? >> i think it's very early days. i think we're beginning to see some signs of this. andrew, margins in our portfolio companies have been up nine quarters in a row. we're still growing our hiring, but there's definitely a factor here where these tools are powerful. if you think about summarization or graphic design, translation, sort of mid-level coding capabilities, these tools are starting to work their way into businesses. and so if you want to be excited about the us stock market, if i'm a viewer here, you could say we could see this

real productivity boom. we could see margins at companies improve and also customers getting a better experience. so i do think it's a factor. i think it's really going to enhance efficiency at companies and improve customer experiences. >> john gray, it is always good to see you. thank you for joining us and walking us through the numbers this morning. and i hope we have an opportunity to talk again very, very soon. >> thanks so much, guys. >> thanks. >> now some breaking news from the european central bank cutting rates by a quarter of a percent for the fifth time since june. that was as expected. that cut. we will speak with former fed vice chair roger ferguson. fed vice chair roger ferguson. stay tuned. you're wat help us retire. it's a simple ask of our elected leaders. but the tax treatment we rely on to grow our 401(k)s, iras, and other retirement plans could be on the chopping block in congress. any policymaker who makes it harder to save for retirement is standing against the financial well-being of 120 million americans.

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>> and make official. >> start your will. >> at. >> trusted will.com and make. >> it count. >> welcome back to squawk box. openai ceo sam altman back in washington today, talking to lawmakers and touting some new technology from the company while addressing competition from china and also from deep sea, something that's been on the minds of a lot of investors. as you know, kate rooney has also some new reporting this morning on investment from softbank. what's going on. >> andrew good morning. yeah. so a source close to that deal telling me that softbank now plans to invest up to $25

billion in openai. this new deal would make softbank openai's largest shareholder, i'm told one upping microsoft. and so far microsoft. softbank has put about $2 billion into that startup. the total for this round, it might end up being closer to $15 billion. it's still ongoing. and the financial times was first to report this. openai and softbank did decline to comment. it does come a week after openai ceo sam altman and softbank's masa son took the stage together in washington, dc, with president trump and larry ellison announcing that $100 billion stargate joint venture altman is going to be taking the stage again here in dc around 9 a.m. eastern, addressing lawmakers, economists, there's going to be administration officials here. this event was. planned as a demo for new technology. we don't have the details of exactly what we're going to see yet or what that is, but the. ai backdrop has been turned on its head by deep sea. so this ultra low cost ai model out of. >> china. >> of course, you've probably heard of by now that wiped

hundreds of billions of dollars in market cap from ai related stocks in just a single day. that's a big focus here. openai is now accusing the chinese competitor to chatgpt of ripping off their ai models to essentially build another version at a fraction of the price. it's through something called distillation. altman and openai have been really banging the table in dc on this us china dynamic, sources telling me it's really been the ceo's main pitch to the trump administration while he's spending time here in washington. one big question deep sea is now bringing up the cost of this chinese competitor was able to prove more cost efficiencies. but based on that softbank news guys, deep sea not changing openai's need for capital or that ability to raise money. right now we're going to be chatting with the chief product officer of openai, kevin wheel, in the 9 a.m. hour. guys, about all of this. back over to you, kate. >> want to thank you for bringing us that news as we're all trying to understand it. it's fascinating all the different developments. we'll be looking for that interview with you later in the day. thanks. coming up after this, we got

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mentioned mr. santelli is of course standing by at the cme in chicago. i know you've got the numbers in about 15 seconds. yeah. >> about 15 seconds. >> you know what's noteworthy here is today's a big. day after the fed meeting where we did nothing in. >> terms of we. >> had a pause. >> ecb lowered. we're flirting. >> with. four and. >> a half. and a ten. >> and four and. >> three quarters. >> on a 30. and the data is. >> hitting the wires. let's start. >> out with the initial jobless claims, shall we? 207,000, well below the mark of 225,000 that we were looking at. 207,000 would be the smallest initial jobless claims number since the first week of the year, when it was 203,000. >> and that. >> was the lowest level, going. >> all. >> the way back to february of 24. if we look at continuing claims, very fascinating. continuing claims 1,858,000. that's not a 34th consecutive month above 1.8 million. and

something has changed in the rear view mirror. we actually went from 1,000,899 to 1.9 million. now, this is interesting. we haven't had a 1.9 million handle in 38 months on continuing claims. so this is a big deal. we want to monitor that. and we want to look now at our first look. as andrew pointed out on gdp for the fourth quarter. and the number comes in on the light side 2.3%. we're looking for something a bit over 2.5% sequentially under the 3.1%, which was rather robust last quarter. 2.3 would be the smallest since the first quarter of 24, when it was at 1.6. if we look at consumption, a big jump here, this is a strong number, 4.2%. that's a full percent more than we were expecting. that's half a percent more than the rear view mirror at 3.7. 4.2 is the best since

the first quarter of 23. that is something that's going to potentially push rates up a bit and argue against a slowing economy. on the price index comes in on the light side 2.2. we're expecting 2.5% now, even though it's better on an expectations level, it's still sequentially higher than the 1.9% in the rear view mirror, 2.2% equals the highest level of inflation in this regard. since the second quarter of 24. and if we look at the core price index that comes in at 2.5, exactly as expected. but once again, that's warmer than the rear view mirror at 2.2%, 2.5 would be the warmest. just like our last number there since the second quarter of last year. so we want to pay that second quarter of this 2024. now, as we look at all the data, the market really has to divine a lot of

information here. many look at expectations on anything that measures inflation. and usually on the day of trade based on positioning, that ends up being more important. but in the macro view, and this is why many have gotten the fed wrong, if you take a step back and just look at the numbers for what they are, they're still running a bit on the hot side with respect to pricing, and we're seeing some good numbers on initial claims. maybe we're starting to run out of gas on the superlative performance on continuing claims. and as i said, 4.5%. well, we haven't closed below 4.5% since the 12th of december. and if you look at a two year, it closed at current levels would be the lowest yield close since about the second week of december. and finally, it's 4.5% in the ten. it's four and three quarters on a 30. we haven't closed below that since the 20th of december. andrew, back to you. >> okay, rick, thank you for all of that and all of that analysis as the numbers came in. i want to get over to steve liesman,

the professor who's also been looking at those numbers with his own reaction. >> yeah. so this was a squirrely number going in. i'll tell you why. the trade report we got yesterday. was very negative. it was very it was a big surge in imports. and so what happened is a lot of people on the street actually lowered their estimate. i did a quick calculation of six forecasts out there. it was actually 1.7%. what. i don't know andrew. what i can't say is it doesn't look like that negative trade showed up in this report. i'm not really sure why, but i'm looking at the contribution from trade and imports didn't really subtract much as people expected. bottom line i think, is that from an economic or macroeconomic standpoint, i think this is a pretty good report. i'm looking at personal consumption up 2.8%. however, you have a decline in

in gross investment in business investment, down 1%. there are several reasons were cited for that. potentially a little bit of kind of hesitation ahead of the election might have played a role. people waiting to see what's going to happen in terms of tax structure, all sorts of things, or who was going to even win the election. some of that comes from from this quarter. you also had some issues with boeing. they might have played a role in reducing investment. so i think ultimately, if you think about the idea you had by the also a huge decline in inventories as well. so when i look at the thing that matters and that really drives the economy, which is consumer spending, that looks pretty healthy. and i think that's probably likely to continue. one very quick word, andrew, on claims you did have a surge in the week of january 18th of in california of plus 5000. we'll see if that's a number that gets worse over time in terms of the ultimate impact it has on global

on on on national jobless claims. >> andrew. we'll be watching those numbers. steve, i want to thank you for your analysis. rick. thank you for your analysis, mike. >> all right. coming up, former fed vice chair roger ferguson joins us on the breaking economic data and the latest fed decision. stay tuned. you're decision. stay tuned. you're watching when the temperature drops... you've got two choices. close your eyes and think warm thoughts. or open your eyes and get out here. there's only one vehicle lineup that embraces everything the cold has to offer. the official vehicles of winter. jeep, there's only one. right now, during the jeep start something new sales event, get 20% below msrp for an average of $13,000 under msrp on 2024 jeep gladiator rubicon and mojave models. disaster for some of america's favorite tech companies. my name

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donkey. >> you mean a. >> smart? find an advisor at smart asset. >> com fourth quarter real gdp growing 2.3%. and for more on the data, the fed's decision to hold rates steady and the ecb's rate cut this morning. let's bring in roger ferguson, former fed vice chairman and a cnbc contributor. roger good morning. so i guess the data show still a healthy economy, maybe a little bit lighter than expected on headline real gdp but consumption very strong. a drop in weekly jobless claims. fed seems to look at this. with inflation still above target and say no need to do much. how do you how do you think about it. >> i think you've got it. >> exactly right. >> chair powell yesterday used words such as not. >> in a hurry. >> wait and see. today's data point. and it's just one data point or set of them, really indicates exactly the same thing. as he said yesterday, the economy is healthy. that still comes through today. consumers seem in very good shape, which is the thing that drives the

economy. and the labor market seems as he i think he said, pretty stable. so i think this reinforces the on hold wait and see message from yesterday. >> he also said that essentially in the committee believes this to be the case, that, you know, the risks are roughly balanced as they look at the inflation front as well as job growth at this point. does that make sense here? i mean, the market is always going to find maybe one one leg to put more weight on in terms of what it's more focused on or concerned with at this point. we had a growth scare back in the late summer and the fall, followed by, oh, we have an overheating economy and yields going higher in in the fourth quarter and into this year. so where does it all net out? >> look. >> i think you're right. the market is looking for something that's going to sort of feed the lower interest rate, lower cost of capital story. the reality is inflation, which is the number one thing they should be worried about. looks like it's sort of moving sideways a bit here. and

so, you know, i think there will be a slight disconnect where, you know, the fed may not be able to get off, you know, any cuts this year while the market is still pricing in some for the second half. so i think we are in a wait and see mode, and the market has to get its mind around the fact that, you know, the fed is not. going to ride to its assistance by. >> putting in. >> more cuts necessarily. it's not resolved just yet. >> the chair, you know, tried to essentially make the case for his assertion that policy in the us is still meaningfully restricted. and yet he also says, well, we don't really know what the neutral rate is. we know it by its works. he says that all the time. well, what what are the works we're looking at right now? if the economy is still growing relatively strongly with fed funds rate above 4%, with the ten year yield above 4.5%, are we still restrictive? >> look, i think you put your point your finger on one of the slight logical disconnects. and

i think a 2 or 3 shows ago i showed up, i came on and talked about the fact that maybe we are closer to neutral than chair powell himself has suggested. as you point out, he says, we, you know, nor by its works. well, we've got an economy that looks like it's growing roughly at potential. we've got a labor market that looks like we're in, you know, healthy territory with an unemployment rate that used to be considered full employment. so i think there is a debate question mark. you know, i think we are probably closer to neutral and less restrictive maybe than chair powell himself has said. >> and once again, you know, the chair kind of resisted all efforts to try to get him to be more explicit about how he would deal with the potential policies coming under this administration, and also to respond to the president's insistence that rates go lower. does the fed need to have a theory of the case, though, in terms of what the probabilities are in terms of tariffs going on, in terms of the impact of, of, you know, crackdown on

immigration and things like that at this point, or can they just say things are fine right now and we'll have to wait and see. >> i think they have to walk a middle ground. and he suggests that they are, which is, you know, have the staffs of the various fed banks and the board of governors producing various scenarios and what ifs, giving policymakers at least something to mull over as they wait to see how things unfold. but i think he's also right. they shouldn't act on speculation. it's hard to know exactly where these tariffs are going to end up. we've seen tariffs used as a as a bit of an international negotiating vis a vis colombia for example. so i think he's got it right. you know wide range of potential outcomes. let's make sure we've modeled or thought about different ideas different outcomes. but no reason yet to bake anything into the policy making process. >> i recall, you know, a couple of jackson hole meetings ago. actually, i believe this might even have been pre pandemic when, when powell harkened back to the 1990s and he and he gave

credit to the fed at the time for allowing this productivity boom to unfold and not necessarily believe that low unemployment was going to be inflationary and all these things. could we possibly be at another moment where we have to be at least alert to the idea that you have another productivity wave, that some of the equations are going to shift around a little bit in terms of what might cause inflation or disinflation? >> i think we absolutely have to be, you know, there's been a great deal of talk about the impact of ai on productivity. i think we're starting to see some of that already. you know, if there's a productivity boom this time, it will be slightly different from the last one. i think that last one was sort of slow to materialize. fortunately, the then chairman, alan greenspan, was very prescient in picking that up. so you're raising another really good point here. we may be at the beginning of a major productivity boom because of ai. and let's wait and see how that plays out as well.

>> yeah 95 fed just cut i think three times into 96. went on hold for a while. so some of this stuff matches up with recent history as well if we're lucky. roger, great to talk to you as always. thank you. >> thank you. >> all right. squawk box gonna be right back. we'll have the latest details on that deadly plane crash in washington. stay with us. >> how's the quarter coming along, kate? >> he thinks your name. >> is kate. and hates when people correct him. >> pretty great. >> define pretty great. >> we added koopa's ai. >> powered total. >> spend management platform. >> so we're finding. >> new. >> efficiencies and multiplying margins. >> so you can mind your. >> business so you can mind. >> your business. >> no, that's not what i meant. >> you all should be laughing harder.

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board the helicopter. tragic story this morning. joining us now, john goglia, an aviation expert and former presidential appointee to the national transportation safety board. thank you for being here, john. obviously, our our hearts and condolences go out to the families of those affected here. as for the investigation itself, what happens now? >> well, starting. >> last night, there were probably were ntsb people at the at the tower talking to the controllers, talking to the radio radar operators, and in general, just gathering what facts that they could around the perimeter and making sure that they don't interfere with the recovery efforts, but also talking to the people, doing the recovery to make sure they minimize the damage. any additional damage to the physical evidence, because that may become important. and at some point in time, they're going to be interviewing anybody

and everybody that has seen this. anything to do with this accident. and they'll be talking to people actually, that maybe have very little to do with the event, but might have some knowledge to share. so that was last night, this morning that i'm sure they hit the ground running with, with people out there investigating, gathering the facts, i should say, from wherever they could without continuing to interfere with any rescue. and the recovery efforts are a different story. they can be in and amongst the recovery of, of bodies and the rest looking at physical evidence. but they would not interfere with any kind of recovery. >> and now this. >> of course, is the first fatal u.s. airline commercial airline collision in 16 years, which is an impressive track record. but a lot has been made and reported on these near-miss situations, these near-miss collisions which

have been on the rise in recent years, some of that attributed to just the overall congestion level in our skies. what do you think needs to be done to make those near-miss situations more of a rarity, if at all, zero and prevent situations like this in the future? >> well, you know, one of the problems that comes with having such a stellar success rate with safety that 16 years that you just mentioned is that human beings tend to be complacent. they start to really feel like it's not nothing's going to go wrong and things happen and near misses are just warning shots. they're telling you the system is strained, something's going on, and you should be dealing with it aggressively. and we haven't really dealt with it as aggressively. as we should. obviously. so all the air traffic control problems that we have are based upon our system,

which is really, really saturated with flights. so at some point in the future, somebody's going to have to take the bull by the horns and start talking about how do we reduce the operations but keep the passenger flow up. >> but how do you do that? i mean, i think this goes to the larger question about just the increase in traffic at all these major metropolitan airports, the density of traffic in the air over these airports, the speed at which we're trying to land and have planes take off, the lobbying efforts by airlines to capture more slots, given the commercial interests and demand. >> well, maybe we start allowing bigger airplanes to come into washington national. right. so one widebodied airplane can take take the place of two narrow bodied airplanes or you. we now see that that that airbus has a 200 passenger a321. so maybe

that's what we need to start pushing the airlines to get these larger single aisle airplanes into national. and that and therefore reducing the number of slots needed for multiple, little smaller airplanes. washington national is a unique airport. it's in close. everybody, including me, wants to fly in and out of national, and it puts a lot of pressure. the airlines wanted wanted the passengers and the passenger wants. the convenience puts a lot of pressure on the government. both the airport oversight and the federal government to continue that flow into national. so it's a really difficult situation. you know, we had years ago, we changed some of that with dallas love field when we just stopped flights, long range flights out of dallas love field forced everything to dfw. i don't know that that's the answer here because originally that was

going to be dallas. and dallas is pretty saturated now, today itself. so the demand is just just so high. it's going to be really difficult to find a solution. >> absolutely. >> a difficult situation indeed. john, thank you very much for your time this morning. >> okay. >> thank you for having me. >> thank you for having me. >> squawk box wil gold bond believes touch says everything. it says... i see you. i feel you. and...i know you. gold bond. get in touch with irresistibly touchable skin. leads. >> you'll get unlimited. sales leads. mailing lists, business profiles. personal search, email marketing and. free crm. i got four. >> new customers the. >> first month. >> that's incredible. >> i can see all my. prospects

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the ceos have a big announcement, they come here first. >> a wild. >> hour of earnings.

bell. joining us right now with a preview is barclays managing director tim long. good morning to you. the stock has actually performed at least recently on the back of this deep tech news. a lot of people excited just given the capex or lack of capex relative to some of the other players. how much do you think we're going to be hearing about apple intelligence and open ai, and what's what's on deck for you? >> hi. >> thanks for having me. yeah, i think. >> apple intelligence. >> has obviously. >> been a focus for the company since the june event last year. >> we're likely to. >> hear about more about the timeline of some of the phasing, of getting apple intelligence into other markets still not in china, and a lot of europe, given language and some of the regulatory requirements in each

of those places. so i think we'll probably get a little bit more of a timeline. >> you mentioned. >> deep sea apple obviously is taking a little bit more of an asset light approach. to ai. so they are not spending capex and building the ai infrastructure. like a lot of the other large internet companies are. we'll see if they stick with that strategy or not in our view, so far, apple intelligence has not been successful. so we do think maybe they they might have a little bit of a reboot in strategy over the next year for, for their ai offerings. what do you think we're going to hear in terms of phone sales, which is, of course, the driver of all of this? >> yeah. >> we think. >> the december reported. >> numbers will. >> be basically in line. we are picking up, like most, a lot of weakness in the supply chain and the distribution channels. so we do think leading into march the numbers are going to be a little bit lower. so they don't give official guidance. but we think the take will be that the march

numbers will come down a little bit. we talked about in our preview, the se four. that's the new, more affordable version of an iphone that's been a little bit delayed. so in our model at least, we did take some of the se fours out of the march quarter and started pushing them into the june quarter. so that's contributing somewhat. but i think more broadly, the iphone 16 has not really been the success that probably not apple or most investors had been expecting. so we still see overall weakness. we got to run. but do you see a transformative moment come this next fall? i mean, we keep waiting for this sort of sea change, a step change in terms of people swapping out their phones for new ones. >> yeah. >> on one hand. >> the age of phones is very old. >> so at some point we are going to start to see some upgrades. on the other hand, you know, there. >> was a. >> lot of expectation that. apple intelligence. would help in this prior version of the

iphone 16. so if they say for the 17, it's going to help. there's going to be a little bit more pushback on that, i believe. okay, tim, we got to run. we want to thank you. of course we will be watching those apple earnings. we'll be talking a lot about them i imagine tomorrow morning. you probably will be talking about them later today all day. thank you both of you for being here with us. make sure you join us tomorrow. squawk on the street begins right now. >> good thursday morning. >> welcome to. >> squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with david faber, sara eisen at post nine of the new york stock exchange. cramer has the morning off. futures are mixed as the market responds to the fed meeting. fourth quarter gdp numbers and our first batch of mega-cap tech earnings. but we are going to begin with last night's tragic collision between an american airlines jet and an army helicopter. a search and recovery mission is now underway in the waters of the potomac. our eamon javers is at reagan national