last year. 31 years in a row of dividend growth. >> okay. thank you. liz young thomas. >> software i think it's the next beneficiary of this ai theme. and capex dollars will flow there. >> josh brown, my. >> baker hughes reports before the open tomorrow. i'm already pre clenching to get ready. >> all right. good. see i told you we'd get a little setup in there. thank you for that. thanks for watching. i'll see you on closing bell. the exchanges now. >> bringing clenching. scott, thank you very much. and welcome to the exchange i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead. the nasdaq is fractionally lower as nvidia tumbles again today. while tesla is enjoying a nice 4% bump after its results last night. but the results themselves weren't that great, some calling them downright dismal. so what are investors buying into? our analyst says tesla is in a unique position and explains what that means for the stock. and now comes apple reporting after the bell. our guest thinks the bar is pretty low. he'll tell us who he likes in big tech. now that deep tech has

changed the narrative, and ups is on pace for its worst day on record. and you can blame amazon, which is cutting its business there by 50%. the ceo joins us for a first on cnbc. just ahead. let's start with today's markets though. and dom chu has more on these movers. hi dom. >> all right. so we got some fractional moves to the up and down side. tech is still lagging in terms of that overall nasdaq composite trade. so we'll start there down about one tenth of 1%. 19,607 is the last trade for that nasdaq composite. it's off just about 25 points. the s&p 500 has had a mixed session so far. we're currently up about 15 points. we were up 41 at the highs of the session. down roughly 12 points at the low. so it still equates to a 6054 level, which is a one quarter of 1% gain. the dow industrials up a similar percentage amount 127 points to the upside to a level of just around 44,844 currently. that's the current state of play. the two reports, earnings wise, that are getting some attention are not in the technology sector. we'll take a

look at one of them first, which is a economic bellwether, a global one. construction equipment giant caterpillar, also a dow component down 4.5%. a mixed earnings report out of caterpillar. it was a better than expected profits number. revenues came in somewhat worse than expected. they also said that they're going to see full year revenue slightly decline in 2025. that is leading to some weakness here in caterpillar shares. and remember global bellwether because they do a lot of that kind of industrial construction resources work that goes into their equipment and those industries. so watch caterpillar shares kelly mentioned it ups much more on this story later on when ceo carol tomé comes on in this hour to talk about its earnings report. but ups's biggest customer is amazon. they didn't say them by name, but they said that their biggest customer and them have come to an agreement where they're going to try to cut more than half of their volumes by the second half of 2026. that is the key. the earnings report was better than expected for profits, a somewhat

worse than expected for revenues. the outlook, again, is what's got investors a little bit worried. so we're down 15.5%. another one of those bellwethers right. shipping volumes can play into that whole dow transportation type theme. we'll see whether or not carol tomé can set the record a little bit better off with this particular stock. kelly, i'll send things back over to you. >> that's coming up in just a few minutes. dom. thanks. let's turn now to today's tech movers, which has the nasdaq at a bit of a tug of war. tesla is up 4% more than that now, despite missing on both the top and bottom line last night. while microsoft is down more than 6% on weak revenue guidance. meta. that's moving up one and a half 2% or so as we await results from apple after the bell today, and we'll see if that's somewhat of a tell. we've got barclays dan levy here. on musk's ambitious goals at tesla that might be boosting the stock. deirdre bosa has more on their latest self-driving prospects, and clockwise capital's james chuckmuck is here with the names to buy and tech and the ones that he is avoiding. welcome to all of you. dan, let's start with you. and what was the difference between the financial results and what's moving the stock right now?

>> yeah. thank you so much for having me, kelly. look, the print itself was was not good. clear, miss. and when you back out some bitcoin gains it was much worse. the clear area was on gross margins. but why is the stock not down. because simply this is a stock that is disconnected from fundamentals. with stock trading at 125 times earnings, it tells you that near-term earnings don't matter. what matters is narrative right now. this is a supercharged narrative benefiting from both autonomous and their efforts in humanoid robots. >> ai so. >> before we kind of dig in, more on that with deirdre. dan you know, typically the street would be a little bit more cautious than to just kind of go, yeah, yeah, all sounds good. i mean, there was news from waymo on this front just this week. the competition is already fierce in this space. so why the excitement. >> look tesla has owned the narrative for much of last year and especially post the election. they've really owned the narrative. that's the only way you can explain why tesla

accumulated some, you know, half $1 trillion of incremental market cap post election. and so right now, the market is not really challenging any of the things tesla is saying. i think the market is getting very excited about what tesla is doing. we think, you know, we'd be a little more cautious on how these things play out. but we understand that the market is feeding off narrative. the big thing you got from tesla last night was they are starting unsupervised fsd, driverless fsd in texas in june. and the market's getting excited about that. how it plays out beyond that remains to be seen. but mark is getting excited about what they're doing. >> let's get more on that from deirdre now. so deirdre we've got elon's bullish target on robotaxis which he sees on the roads in austin in just five months. waymo continues to expand testing of its own vehicles. that's owned by alphabet. of course i'm just kind of unpack the latest news for us. sure. >> and let me start with what dan said. he said yes, tesla has owned the narrative, but elon musk has also over promised and under delivered on robotaxis for

years. this year, though, could be the real deal. the self-driving landscape has just evolved so much over the last year, with waymo leading the way in terms of commercialization. there's also been more regulatory policies that have been established. and as dan was saying, tesla's full self-driving or fsd, that is now being deployed with no safety drivers, albeit on private roads. musk says that june austin launch will have that key distinction. >> we're going to be launching unsupervised full self-driving as a paid service in austin in june. so. you know, talk to the team. we feel confident in being able to do an initial launch of unsupervised no. one in the car. full self-driving in austin in june. >> now, again, his word alone may be not enough to say that the launch this time is a

certainty, but tesla's fsd technology has made major improvements over the last year. truist and others noting that fsd v3 requires little to no interventions. we also talked a lot about waymo's expansion last year that is also set to ramp up. it's going to test in ten new markets in 2025, with just a handful of cars in each city suggesting kelley. and here's the main point. if last year was the year that robotaxis were deployed strategically in niche markets, mostly along the sun belt, this year we will see more generalization as robotaxis get closer to becoming mainstream. and that is a very new proposition for investors. >> any idea, deirdre, why they've been taking so long to get to manhattan? >> because like i said, they're kind of like deploying in the sun belt. those are sort of the easier places to go. you don't have to deal with rain, heavy rain or snow in most cases. but you look at where waymo is going to this year. vegas is one of the places, and that is sort of a notoriously harder city to

navigate for robotaxi. so this probably a stop on the way to manhattan. kelly, we'll get to you eventually. >> all right. i want to turn to james chuckmuck. james, you have some thoughts about tesla here as well. what are they? >> remarkable about tesla is the fact that, you know, the investors surrounding the stock are able to take a longer term view and buy into the 26 to 28 vision that elon musk is laying out versus the other big tech names, which have a myopic view on how exactly the quarter went in the next three months will go. that being said, we continue to like tesla. you know, it is a smaller weight in our fund. but, you know, following last night's results, you know, we do think that we did come away incrementally positive on it. so do think that, you know on any pullbacks we'd likely take advantage. >> so dan let me ask you a quick final question then. because if automotive or i don't even know if they're automotive, but if the gross margins didn't matter last night, you know, for a long time that was the tell on the

stock until covid. and it kind of gave up margin to take share and so forth. and what is the new tell? >> this is right now on, on on narrative. we do think that at some point fundamentals will go back to mattering. to some extent they've mattered, at least directionally in determining the stock. but right now this is really a stock that's on narrative. and people are going to be watching carefully to see, okay, where are you on fsd development deployments? and is this technology real? i think we just remind people it is a very long path to achieving the types of capabilities that everyone is hoping for. we saw how long it took for waymo, but then to monetize on that and have a real business model will take a lot of time. but people want to see the progress, and that's really going to be the gating factor on the narrative. >> shares are up almost 5% now to session highs. dan, how would you describe tesla's progress relative to waymo? are they behind? >> look waymo has has achieved achieved true driverless capabilities. go to san

francisco and you'll see no shortage of waymo that many people would say really you know, are the same exact thing as an uber. that was always the dream on autonomous. we haven't seen that with tesla yet. now the opportunity for tesla is to expand beyond localized solutions, right? we see waymo specifically in san francisco, specifically in parts of la or phoenix. tesla is promising a generalized solution. so while tesla has not pulled the driver yet in a dense urban environment, the hope for some, and i think it remains to be seen, is that they can scale this more rapidly because of the generalized solution that they have. it remains to be seen how that plays out. >> dan, appreciate you joining us for that today. dan levy, who covers tesla of course has equal weight rating on the stock. deirdre, because tesla is an idiosyncratic story about robotaxis, or maybe it's also about ai, you could argue what jumped out to you last night. from what we heard in terms of ai from meta and microsoft.

>> well, that's a big question. there was so much to unpack and so many questions that have just arisen in the last week alone. you know, primary among them, do you need the same amount of gpus? do you need the same kind of infrastructure to develop ai? if a chinese lab was able to prove that you can do it for cheaper? i don't think we got the answer to that last night. there were some nuances, of course, with microsoft and meta saying that their capex plans are in place. they did still open the door for that to change down the road, with zuckerberg saying something like, you know, that could change in the future. but from what we know right now, it's too early to say. and of course, we know that elon musk is gobbling up as many gpus as he can. i think there's a distinction between america and china. now, china can do this efficiently, but it raises the stakes for american ai companies to make further breakthroughs. and that is still going to require a ton of compute power and infrastructure. and i think what we heard so far is that's not going to change anytime

soon. in fact, it's less likely to change because those stakes are so high. if china can do it efficiently, we need to sort of follow up with those big breakthroughs. and you heard that from openai and kate rooney's great interview with their chief product officer. >> and i know people are making, you know, hay of the fact that meta's not reacting better today, but come on, they're up 72% over the past year and really not taking much profit here. deirdre i appreciate it. deirdre bosa in techcheck today. so james chuckmuck over to you then. do you pick up microsoft down 6%. do you pick up apple ahead of earnings. what are your thoughts here. >> for microsoft for apple also we're we're there in both those names. but we are underweight relative to the index by a sizable margin by less than half. you know we are you know downward biased on both of them over the very short term. but over the longer term, i think this deep seated news is actually incrementally positive for both names. so on any pullbacks we take advantage. but we're certainly not looking to close anything up into tonight. >> what about amazon.

>> amazon. you know as you know i like that stock for a long time. but it has had a tremendous run. so right now you know we're not increasing the size of our position. we have been taking gains trimming the position as the stock has risen. but you know there are questions about the cloud growth. so you know, the risk reward we find more attractive than other names. >> and you're not even it seems like your top ideas right now i mean i remember what amazon was one of them a couple of years ago. they're not big tech. it's palantir, it's robinhood. who else? >> yeah, we like the smaller cap names right now. and with the takeaway from this deep tech news is that, you know, we're pivoting away from semiconductor suppliers. you know, we have dramatically cut our nvidia position. but we still think that the infrastructure build out will continue and continue in a big way. so we like taiwan semi. we like the power guys a lot, especially after the pullback like constellation energy vst. so you know those are kind of the areas that we're

going into. and in crypto you know with robinhood you know we were quite bullish on crypto as you look on a 12 month basis and beyond. so we're keeping that exposure there. >> so do you just get you know the platform the coinbases the hoods. is that how you play it or i mean do you just say even despite its recent run, just keep buying bitcoin outright. >> yeah. i mean in the in our etf we have slightly less flexibility in buying crypto outright as we do in the hedge funds and the hedge fund we are. but that being said, you know, i think hood provides excellent exposure. i think that there's opportunity for multiple expansion as well as earnings growth. but there's one big point i kind of want to make is, you know, we had that big sell off on monday. and i think people really need to rethink about the beta and the risk of these portfolios because, for example, you see a company like constellation energy, it's got a 0.78 beta, but it behaves like a semiconductor stock. so what we do in our portfolio is we kind of redefine what the true beta of these stocks should be, and actually reclassify the sectors

that they're in. because constellation energy, a stock that's up 36% this year versus the xlu at 3%, you know, is it's a fraction of the beta of the semiconductor space. and it trades more like that. so, you know, i think behaviorally as you invest in tech and big tech in particular, you really got to rethink some of those first principles and assumptions i'm making on what the risk of the portfolio. >> we've all thought that the safest play in markets, it's like, you know, you'd never get fired for owning ibm, which would be true today also. but, you know, you own big tech and now it sounds like you're saying maybe smaller is safer for this next phase of the cycle. we'll see. james, thanks. appreciate your time today james shukman with clockwise capital. coming up. ups is on pace for its worst day on record with the shares down 15%. it's back to june 2020 levels after the company posted mixed results and will be cutting back on deliveries for its largest customer, amazon, by more than half by the end of next year. ceo carol tomé weighs in on that and their cost cutting efforts. next plus financials are enjoying a record run and that includes raymond

james near an all time high and reporting record revenue in the latest quarter. we'll speak with the outgoing ceo about rates, regulation and of course, the m&a pipeline. we're back after this. >> this is the exchange on cnbc. tech check is sponsored by comcast business. powering possibilities. >> with the sunrise flagship fund you can invest in the same kind of real estate investments that have power. the world's largest portfolios for decades. start growing your real estate start growing your real estate portfolio t it all started with a small business idea. it's a pillow with a speaker in it! that's right craig. pulling in the perfect team to get the job done.

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almost 15% and having their worst day on record, falling to their lowest level also in nearly five years after disappointing revenue guidance for the coming year. why they plan to cut back on deliveries for their largest customer, which is amazon, by more than half. morgan brennan is standing by with ups ceo carol tomé. morgan kelly. >> thank you. and carol. >> tomé, ceo of ups. it's great to have you on. thanks for being with us today. >> good to see you, morgan. >> so i do want to start with the fact that for fourth quarter, your earnings beat expectations. but it was really that full year 2025 revenue guidance and operating profit coming in weaker than expected. and then this news about amazon and the fact that you're going to be tapering some of those volumes here through 2026. that has sent the shares lower. how much of the amazon business piece of this is factoring into your guidance for 2025? >> well. >> morgan, it's great to spend some time with you. and let me just talk a little bit about our amazon relationship. we've been together for nearly 30 years. they are our largest customer,

but they're not our most profitable customer. and the contract with amazon came up for renewal in 2025. so we stepped back to take a look at where did we want to take this business going forward. because if we knew if we didn't take action, it would have diminishing returns. so we looked at a number of different alternatives and decided that the best thing to do was to accelerate a glide down of their volume, taking it down by more than 50% by june of 2026. what that means in terms of the guidance is simply this in the united states, our volume will decline in 2020 2025 by 8.5%. our revenues will decline by about 2%, but our profit will increase by 14.5%. >> as you do grow margins and as you do seek out. and i'm going to get into this a little bit more in just a moment. some of these perhaps more profitable areas of business. have you been surprised to see the reaction in

the stock today and ups is having it's its worst day on record. i mean, we have in some ways seen this playbook play out before just a couple of years ago when fedex disentangled itself from its own amazon contracts. >> so we had a big announcement today and there was a lot for the market to digest. i think as the days and weeks come and analysts and investors digest our news, they will understand that we are taking control of our destiny. we are going to grow in the parts of the market that value our end to end network and value the capabilities that we have been investing in that differentiate us from the rest of the market. we are not a shrinking company. we are a growing company. but we need to take control of the amazon volume. >> how do you plan to backfill that volume as it comes down at amazon, especially given the fact that the last time you and i spoke in march of last year, on the heels of your investor day, you laid out this one plus two plan and this better and

bolder vision for the company. >> yes. so the one plus two plan played out beautifully. we ended up with a lot of momentum in 2024. growing revenue and profit. as we think about how are we going to grow going forward while the us small package market is growing in the low single digit area in 20 2025, and we're going to take share, how are we going to take share by by leveraging the capabilities that we've been investing in. and i'll give you one example. we've seen great growth in our small and medium sized customer segment. that segment reached now about 29% of our total business in the united states in 2024, and we're going to grow that to 32% in 2025. and then on our way to 35% by 2026. it doesn't stop with smbs, however. we're growing into cold chain logistics. we just completed the acquisition of another cold chain logistics health care logistics company in germany known as frigo trans. so our health care business was

pretty growthy last year, and it will continue to grow in 2025. the health care business in 2024 grew 45%. in 2025, it's going to grow nearly 8%, and we're on our way to take that business to a $20 billion business by 2026. >> now, you've also said you're going to be reconfiguring the network. you plan to extract $1 billion in cost savings. how does that happen? >> so they're they're they're different cost out activities associated with the announcements that we made today. we have a lot of assets and resources that support the amazon volume. and as the amazon volume comes down, we will be freeing up resources and assets. we'll close about 10% of our buildings throughout the united states. as an example of how we're freeing up assets and resources. and clearly our staffing, well, it flexes with the volume that's inside of our network. on the efficiency reimagined announcement that we had today. this is about just improving many of our processes

to take out costs. we've got some pretty archaic processes in our company still today, for example, we still take checks. so we've identified over $1 billion of cost savings just by running a better business going forward. >> and then just finally, on the e-commerce piece of this, specifically, amazon is certainly getting a lot of attention today, but you have also been delivering more and more packages for some of the chinese e-commerce players as well. you've brought shore post in house, which is a postal service related service as well. so what does that mean for the e-commerce business? the business to consumer business at ups specifically. >> so on shore post, this is an important product that we offer to our customers and its economy product. it made up a little under 20% of our total volume. in the fourth quarter. we had used the postal service as part of the last mile delivery solution for this product. the

postal service is changing its operating model and raising its costs. and when we looked at that value proposition, we were nervous about that because, well, they were changing their operating model, which could put service at risk. so we took a look at that and said, hey, we can insource what the postal service had been doing for us and make sure that we have excellent customer service for our customers. by the way, we already delivered 50% of the shore post product, so we're only insourcing the remaining 50%. it's a better value proposition for our customers, and it's a better value proposition for our shareholders in terms of the overall e-commerce market, we are really focused on the customer segments that value our end to end integrated network. that's cold chain healthcare logistics. it's small and medium sized business customers. it's b2b customers. it's differentiating our capabilities to gain stickiness with our customers, in fact, our churn. in other words, the number of customers that left us

last year was the lowest it's been in many, many years. so we're just laser focused on segments and capabilities and not chasing all the packages that are coming into the small package market. >> okay. carol tomé, ceo of ups, thank you for joining me. >> thank you morgan kelly. >> it's got to be tough steering a company in the midst of a moments like these. thank you both very much for your time today. appreciate it. after a quick break, the latest on the recovery efforts after last night's tragic plane crash at reagan national airport. we have the latest on the ground and the next steps for the investigation. when we come back. >> individually, each of us is great, but from here you can see we're one big team. at atlassian. we believe real progress takes all of us working together on new sources of energy, cars that drive to the future, even pizza deliveries. together we can go beyond where we've ever been collaborating

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interests at the center of every decision. our business is built around being responsive to our client's ever changing needs. as an advisor, as there are a custody services provider, i see my client's success as my own because when they grow, we grow with them. for over 25 years, we've been committed to rias, and that's why i chose tradepmr. >> welcome back. 60 passengers, four crew and three military service members are presumed dead after an american airlines regional jet collided with an army black hawk helicopter last night on final approach to runway 33 at reagan national airport in washington, d.c, when the mid-air collision occurred. both of the aircraft crashed into the icy waters of the potomac river, leading to a major search and rescue operation involving hundreds of first responders. those efforts are now a recovery operation that continues at this hour. eamon javers is on the ground

for us near reagan airport. phil lebeau has a closer look at the collision and the next steps for the investigation from here. welcome to both of you gentlemen. thanks. and eamon, let's start with you. >> well kelly, we're learning a little bit more now about that army blackhawk helicopter crew. according to nbc news, citing officials, one of the soldiers apparently killed in the crash was a woman. another one was an instructor pilot, that is, an experienced pilot who was on hand to lend some of that experience to the crew. the crew was on a training mission. this is part of an annual training exercise that they do. no additional information on names, but we do know that the pentagon has been working on notifying next of kin to those soldiers who were killed last night. meanwhile, we've been able to get some audio from the air traffic control tower here at reagan national airport and reconstruct that audio with some of the video to give you a sense of just how chaotic those final moments were. and you can hear in this audio that i'm about to

play for you, the air traffic controllers trying at the last moment trying to head off this disaster. in the end, they weren't able to do it. but you can hear those efforts in this tape. take a listen. >> did you see that? not sure if you're aware of what happened. if you want to go back to the gate, i don't know if we're going to resume operations in the in the near future. i believe they're going to close the air force for an indefinite amount of time. i might suggest to go back to the gate. all fixed wing traffic has been paused. >> and you can hear the air traffic controllers just before that, advising the helicopter to proceed behind the jet plane. for whatever reason, that communication was either unheard or not responded to. and then you hear those gasps in the control tower, and then officials in the control tower trying to shut down all air traffic here at reagan national airport. the search and recovery effort is underway. still, we're told that they have found 28

bodies, 27 from the aircraft, one from the helicopter so far. but we can see boats out on the potomac continuing that effort, u.s. coast guard and others patrolling up and down the potomac river right here, right now. we'll wait and see if we get any additional information, kelly, on those recovery efforts as the afternoon goes on. back over to. >> you, eamon. >> i didn't exactly catch what you said. i'm not sure if we know yet in terms of which aircraft were not which of the aircraft both of them are or neither were in the correct position or is part of this. one aircraft was landing and then there was the black hawk. what's what do we know at this hour? >> we don't know that. what we do know is that the commercial jet was described as being on its final landing approach. what we don't know here, in terms of did somebody make a mistake? was somebody out of the airspace that they were supposed to be in? is this two different systems that simply weren't communicating that they had aircraft headed for the same space at the same time? those

questions are all going to be looked at by the ntsb and, of course, the us military. one of the questions that's been raised already today is, you know, why is the army doing these training flights right next to reagan national airport? if people have to have annual training certifications, you know, can that be done someplace where it's clear of civilian aircraft? now, obviously, those black hawk helicopters, kelly, come up and down the potomac river all day long, every day. you see them constantly, about 300ft above the water. they shuttle vips back and forth around washington all the time. so those pilots will have to have some training in this congested, you know, civil aviation area, even as they're able to handle those black hawk helicopters, they also have to have training in how to interface with the regular commercial aviation that's going on here in washington, dc. so you could see an argument for why they have to train with it. but a lot of questions will be raised, and we'll wait for some of those answers from the appropriate authorities. >> kelly eamon, thanks. appreciate it. for now. our

eamon javers to fill a boat. now with those next steps for federal officials. the president just appointed an acting head of the faa, i believe just last hour. phil over to you. >> and he was actually appointed a while ago. kelly just announced within the last hour by the president we'll talk about the new acting administrator in just a little bit. let me bring you up to speed in terms of what happens now with the investigation to the incident that took place last night. there are search teams, recovery teams, i should say, that are in the potomac. in addition to recovering victims from the crash, they are also working and will be working on the acquisition of the black boxes because both aircraft then crashed in the water. those black boxes are critical to what the ntsb will discover in terms of what happened in the final moments. was somebody in the wrong position? did somebody not see somebody else? was there perhaps a piece of equipment that malfunctioned? all of these are things that will be determined by the black boxes. so with the ntsb, it is now

leading the investigation, as it does with all aircraft investigations. no doubt we'll be working with the pentagon, since we're talking about a black hawk black hawk helicopter involved here. they have a media briefing coming up next hour. and the black box recovery and analysis. that's that's the crucial part of this. once they get that, that will provide a lot of answers. and the d o t. meanwhile, the secretary of transportation, the new secretary of transportation, just a couple of hours ago, reassuring the public that it is safe to fly in this country. >> we commit to them that we are going to get to the bottom of this possible with the ntsb, who is here today as well as the faa. what happened yesterday shouldn't have happened. it should not have happened. and when americans take off in airplanes, they should expect to land at their destination. >> all right. let's talk about the new acting administrator for

the faa. his name is chris rocheleau, or i should say rushlow. that's the proper pronunciation of his name. he has been with the faa for a number of years, though he did step away and was working outside of the federal government for the last couple of years, but has vast experience within the faa, going all the way back to the early 2000. and then shortly after nine over 11, he helped the tsa stand up. the screening process that we see at airports around the country. so he's very familiar, especially since he used to be in charge of accident safety investigations or safety investigations at the faa. he's familiar with the whole process here. and he was announced last hour by president trump. as you take a look at shares of american airlines, keep in mind that this is the first u.s. airline crash here in this country since 2009. a lot of answers, a lot of questions, kelly. very few answers at this point. >> yeah. and i mean, i believe correct me if i'm wrong, phil, that that sean duffy was sworn

in literally hours before this took place. >> yes. that is true. >> yes, that. >> is true. >> how do you even it's to literally have to take the helm and now have the worst such incident that we've had in 15 or something years. i know a lot of people are scrambling and certainly looking for answers. phil, for now, thanks. we appreciate it. the good news. >> go ahead kelly, the good news is, is you've got a lot of experienced people at the faa and the ntsb. they know how to do investigations. so it's not like you have all rookies out there. they will get to the root cause of this eventually. >> yeah, hopefully. and in a way that can prevent, you know, if it was just a freak accident or if something that could prevent it in the future, we certainly hope they'll uncover that. phil, thanks very much. phil lebeau. let's get to contessa brewer now for the cnbc news update. contessa. hi there. kelly. the israeli. >> government has. >> released more than 100 palestinian prisoners after a chaotic scene earlier today threatened to derail that process as hamas was releasing three israelis and five thai nationals. crowds surrounded the hostages. many were shouting support for hamas as the

transfer was taking place. israel suspended any further release but did agree to allow it. after ceasefire, mediators offered guarantees of a safe exit. openai is partnering with the u.s. national laboratories to allow as many as 15,000 scientists there to use openai's latest artificial intelligence models for scientific research and nuclear weapons security. as part of the agreement, openai said it will also deploy one of its models to the supercomputer at los alamos national laboratory. and for now, new york city's congestion pricing plan is safe, sources tell nbc. during discussions this week, president trump assured state governors kathy hochul that for now, he is not going to take action on the plan, the new york times reported earlier today, the white house was considering stopping the plan by revoking a key federal authorization, a much maligned congestion pricing plan. kelly. >> hugely controversial issue. i heard that traffic's down like 5% or so. >> more parking spaces

available. >> yeah, a few contestar. thanks. still ahead, raymond james is coming off an all time high along with a number of financials. the company reporting record revenue in its latest quarter. and we'll talk to the ceo about the state of business and the outlook for m&a after this. >> opportunities can be ■hard to find, like catching lightning in a bottle in uncertain times. it's tempting to retreat or simply wait and see. at cme group, we empower those who act. we deliver tools to help manage, risk and capture opportunities in every market climate, across every major asset class. to seize each possibility at seize each possibility at precisely the at ameriprise financial, we know our clients are so much more than clients. they're go-getters and game-changers, legacy-leavers and visionaries, healers and confidants. the goals that matter most to you matter most to us. helping you achieve them is what we do best.

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>> cnbc welcome back. shares of raymond james are fractionally lower today despite reporting a beat after the bell. they said robust investment banking activity helped lift revenue to a record of about $3.5 billion in the quarter, but are expecting a drop in fees and net interest income next quarter. management flagging some seasonal headwinds. joining me now exclusively is management. paul riley is ceo of raymond james. and this is his swan song his last earnings report. he is stepping down next month. paul, it's great to see you. and i don't know should i say congratulations. >> well a little. >> bit of all we got a. >> great. >> succession in place and we've had a great quarter a little harder after the tragic, you know, thinking about the family in that tragic crash yesterday. but great coverage. the but you know, we had a very, very strong quarter. and you know one of the goals i used to kid saying that tom james dad founded the firm. tom ran it for a long time. and when i came in, i said my job

was to be the third dead guy on a hall long hallway of dead people, you know, to have a successor and have it as an independent firm. and so any, you know, reticence i have about giving up the job after 15 years, i feel so great about paul shukri and the team taking over that. it's really, you know, i reach my mission here at the firm and i know it will continue in great hands. >> i won't say it, but we haven't had a lot of turnover at some of the bigger banks in this. i will just leave that. i'm not going to. not going to. so i take your point. i'm very curious. i think a lot of our viewers are a lot of investors are as well. i mean, what can you tell us about the deal making pipeline? we have a new administration which seems more open to deals, although i think they just blocked one today. i have to go back and look into the to the details of that one. you guys do a lot of bank advice. last year was actually a busy year actually for some of the deals. so what do you see coming down the pipeline. >> now we saw, you know, after records, you know, a few years

ago for the whole industry m&a got very slow. and i think part of it was pricing interest rates when they were on the rise and uncertainty about the economy. and now that's all coming back. the pipelines have been very strong, but the whole industry is picking up. so deals are getting done. in fact, this quarter just reported we had a record feed, over $40 million fee just on one deal, which is big for us and a couple of others up there too. so we're seeing deals, activity, pick up. the pipeline's been there. a lot of private equity firms especially have had cash waiting to put it to work, but people weren't selling. but we're seeing that activity way, way up. and i think across the industry and i believe it will continue to be good. as financings opened up, rates have dropped and private equity has cash to deploy. so yeah, we expect this year to be a very strong year. >> you know, there's 4500 or so banks in this country. i don't know what that number is, is heading toward. and there's obviously a lot of competition to be advising on these deals and the shares of yourself, your

rivals like stifel and piper, i mean, they're up 50, 60, 70% over the past year. so there are really high expectations, even if these deals are not, you know, the big jazzy, you know, mega cap deals. it sounds like what we should expect is a lot more in the small to medium size, almost the kind of things that sometimes don't make a lot of headlines beyond the regional papers. >> yeah. you know, it wasn't too long ago that companies, these sizes, this size would have gone public. but the cost of being public and the simplicity of private equity has let very large companies stay private for a long, long time with private equity backing. and you're seeing those holds are usually, you know, 3 to 7 years, maybe five on average. and with deal activity slowing down those private equity firms because they're in funds need to turn over the cash, because the investors want the cash to reinvest. so that's pushing i think a lot of the activity. and if you look at the economy, the outlook of ceos is up this year much more positive than it's been. and in our investor

survey, you know, two thirds of our investors feel good about the economy, which is up, you know, from just months ago. so there's an optimism at least over the short to mid-term. and i think that's going to drive that those that deal activity. >> you've been at the helm of 14 years or so which kind of spans the post-financial crisis period, you know, through the kind of lost decade that we had through the first trump administration. now, the second one covid the massive inflation we haven't experienced in a long time. how would you describe the fundamentals of the us economy? what has you excited? what are you more worried about? >> well, i think the steadiness and rates financing the financial system for all the things you hear or read about regulation, it's extremely well capitalized and operating very, very well. so those are strengths. i think the thing that people worry about most is just the debt, you know, that we're accumulating through the deficits. and at what point will that be a drag on the economy?

but i think for right now, people see pro-business, a strong economy, capital available, financing available. so certainly for the short to mid-term, i think the economy will do well. and it's always hard to have a recession if people are working and the unemployment rate. i think anyone that wants a job can find a job. it might be a little harder than it was two years ago, but there are plenty of jobs out there. >> well, i hope you're right about all of that. and i thought it was very interesting what you said about companies, you know, that would have gone public now kind of pursuing something different. paul, really appreciate you joining us. it's good to see you. >> thank you. kelly, good to. >> be here. >> paul riley with raymond james. coming up comcast shares are down 12% despite topping street estimates. cnbc's parent company reporting a larger than expected loss in broadband subscribers and stagnating paid peacock subs. the shares are on pace for their worst day since october of 2008. they're also down 23% since comcast announced it would spin off cable networks including us, msnbc, e! and the golf channel back in november.

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today@hims.com. >> welcome back. tractor supply was one of the bigger beneficiaries during covid, as consumers looked for outdoor ways to spend their time, and they never really looked back. the shares are still up about 20% since then, despite being down about 3% on earnings today. and it turns out chicken buying amid high egg prices is now driving customer traffic. joining me is the ceo of tractor supply, hal lawton. hal, it's great to have you here. welcome. >> hi, kelly. good afternoon. >> thanks for. >> having me on the show. >> of course, i looked into chicken buying myself now because at some point you go through so many, you think this makes sense, but it's very complicated. and then there's bird flu to contend with. i. >> we would. >> hope to be able to make. >> the. >> poultry and chicken. >> passion and. hobby much less complex. >> if you came in as a customer to our store and, you know, 1 in 5 of our customers is raises chickens now. wow. it's one of

our larger categories for us. we are seeing a lot of potential momentum and bright outlook for the category for this year. and for us, it's. while poultry is a big business, for us, it's also really a way to just kind of navigate our customers into broader backyard homesteading, whether it's gardening, of course, pets and animals and other other small animals as well. but it's a it's a unique and only tractor supply kind of retail theater. >> yeah. no 1 in 4 of your customers is doing this now. that's amazing. i give credit to anyone who's doing any of what you just mentioned because i struggle mightily. so what happened in the quarter? why was it softer? >> yeah, we had a very solid quarter in the fourth quarter and closed the year strong. we had positive comps again for the year, and we're one of only a small number of retailers that have had positive comps all five years, kind of post covid. and as you said in the opening, really haven't given back any of the large gains we've had over

the last five years. but it was a nice quarter for us, and we're already off and running here in 2025. the month of january is a nice, solid month for us. we really support our customers across all facets of life out here, which includes any sort of cold weather needs. and so january was a nice, solid month for us off and running well, in 25. we've got a whole bunch of new initiatives that we've launched this year that are stacking on top of the existing initiatives we've been working on in the last 4 or 5 years. so exciting year ahead of us. >> some of the analysts think, you know, as with many retailers, disinflation is kind of a headwind to, you know, at some point, those prices, you know, if they're not going up, maybe the margin or top line numbers. so tell me about tariffs. how what did you experience during the first trump administration. what do you expect now. >> yeah, certainly we've got a playbook from 2018 where we navigated the tariffs that were placed on goods at that time. and we certainly dusted that playbook off. and we'll be using that as a starter. obviously, we're all waiting to see how

this plays out. and it's kind of anyone's guess as to what percentage is and what countries. but we've got a tried and true playbook that blends a little bit of it back. you know, it's roughly kind of a third, a third, a third. you're putting some of it back on the manufacturer. we're finding some ways inside of our p and l to offset the impact of the tariff. and then some may be passed along to the customer as well. but that's how we think about it. we've got a proven playbook for that. and i would point out that tractor supply on a relative basis, is far less exposed to tariffs than many companies in the us, and the vast majority of retailers with only about 12% of our business direct import and less than 70% of that direct import business comes from china. so, you know, it's a it's a less than 10% of our business that would be impacted by any sort of chinese tariff. >> well, i appreciate you joining. i'm thinking about, you know, chickens eat ticks. that was one of the attractions for me as well. my husband's going to be like, oh no, here we go again. my neighbor had chickens for years. >> with the kids. you've got to

be all ready for that. it's the perfect family hobby. >> i don't know, i'm really bad at this. hal, thanks very much. i hope to check back in soon. hal lawton is the ceo of tractor supply. that's it for us. i'll see you on power lunch after a break. >> meet venu on the nyse. >> american symbol venu. >> disrupting a. multibillion dollar. >> live music industry. >> venu owns and operates upscale. >> music venues, outdoor amphitheaters with seven revenue sources, $166 million in assets. luxury suite sales of $77 million in 2024, $200 million expected in 2025. 56% year over year growth. venue on the nyse american venue. >> bryan tried to stop you from switching to coupa. >> this is sarah. >> she's not. >> a friend. >> sarah bryan. so i was right about coupa. >> tell me, what do you like most about their ai powered total spend management platform. ai that predicts, prescribes and

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