what took you so long? i'm sorry, there was a long line at the thai place. you get the sauce i like? of course! you're the man! i wish. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com >> power lunch alongside kelly evans i am brian sullivan. all right nvidia in the. spotlight and in the hot seat. shares crushed this week the us government getting involved maybe and the ceo is at the white house today. and more questions about where exactly all of its sales may be going. we're going to dig into it all. plus, trump wants to hit canada and mexico with bigly tariffs. will it happen. >> and. >> if so, when? well the new headline is monday. we'll talk about the impact of what it may

really be. and kelly just as we're halfway through earnings, what lessons if any, can we really learn so far. the great tom lee is here to lay out his investing case. >> looking forward to that. let's check stocks. so we're well off session highs. we've had some pressure in the past hour because of tariffs. the nasdaq is still leading the way up half a percent. the s&p is up just a couple points and was within eight points of its record high earlier. the dow is down about half of a percent despite monday's big drop. remember that feels like longer ago. the nasdaq is down only about 1% on the week. still so not terrible. apple also about roughly flat after earnings. it beat expectations. services revenue outweighed the fact that they did have lower iphone sales. it's down a little less than 1%. it's been pretty impressive for a company that's not really growing revenues, growing earnings especially earnings per share because of buybacks really meaningfully the past couple of years. brian. >> oh, more on apple in a bit. but we are going to start with nvidia. it's an important story on maybe the world's most important stock nvidia stock. not moving a lot right now, but

it's down about 12% on the week. nvidia stock back to levels not seen since june of last year. and jensen wong, the ceo, is now visiting donald trump in the white house. what they will talk about anybody's guess, but we would guess it has something to do with this. reports that the us government may be looking into. nvidia products are ending up maybe illegally in china. here's the concern. it's a little bit big, but bear with us. the china based company deep sea shocking everybody and the markets last week, implying it can do ai for far less money and computing power than us companies, which of course, are spending tens or hundreds of billions of dollars on nvidia semiconductors to do that. and there is growing concern that some of nvidia's sales to singapore may actually be ending up in china potentially violating us export rules, because remember the then biden white house banned some of the best nvidia chips from being sold to china or its companies?

now, nvidia's own accounting shows that tiny singapore accounted for 22% of its global sales last quarter. yes, well below the united states. but singapore is above hong kong and taiwan. think about that. one fifth of nvidia's sales to a city state that is far fewer data centers than the us, than some us states, by the way, or other countries. i want to be crystal clear here. there's no allegation of any wrongdoing by anybody. nvidia's own quarterly reports clearly state that where a sale like singapore may be recorded may not be the final destination of the product sold. you can go look at the 10-q yourself. so chip sold to singapore could end up in the united states or elsewhere. the concern of some is and reportedly now the us government is that some of those chips may end up in china, regardless of what the story is or may be. there is that concern. and if nvidia sales start to fall for

any reason, it could bring down the stock and thus maybe bring down much of the stock market. nvidia remember, in more than 500 big market etfs. let's talk about it all. joining us now to discuss is mae habib ceo of full stack generative ai platform and a writer. and also here is jordan schneider, creator of the china talk podcast and newsletter and a former china tech analyst at the rhodium group. jordan, i want to begin with you. i laid out there a lot. it's a complicated story. let me just ask it very clearly. do you believe that some nvidia semiconductors that are being sold to singapore are actually ending up in china? your own opinion? >> sure. i mean, i don't want to accuse. >> anyone of breaking. >> the law, but i think it's maybe. >> we can start with another part. >> of that. >> pie chart, which is the 15%. >> of sales that. >> are still going. >> into china. who's buying that? >> tencent, bytedance, alibaba, deep seat. >> and these. >> companies aren't dumb. >> and they.

>> know they know they're. >> not being sold. >> potatoes. >> potato chips. >> the biden administration. >> over the course of. >> its tenure from from october 2022 up until the last week of the administration, slowly but. surely increased. the or lowered the. >> ability for nvidia to sell chips. >> but nvidia. >> kept making chips that were. >> right on. >> the line. >> and i think what you. >> saw with deep. >> tech. >> regardless of whether they're using literally banned. >> chips, is the. >> fact that they have been able to do some really incredible engineering. >> with what the. >> us government. >> is. >> allowing to get into china. >> so i want to regardless. >> hold on, wait. >> hold on. because you said it pretty clearly. you said you're not accusing anybody, but you think some of these chips are ending up with with chinese companies, which is why we care, because not all nvidia chips are banned, but the best ones are. let me reiterate, i have been to singapore, but not in a while. it is a small city state. the room for data centers. listen. they're growing. they're still big and fast growing into data

centers. but your your thought, jordan, is that it seems weird that one fifth of their sales is going to a relatively small city state that while growing the data centers is hardly loudoun county, virginia. >> it's definitely weird. >> and i think another trend that you're seeing is this reselling and this enormous build out we've seen in malaysia over the past 18 months where a lot of nio clouds. so not necessarily, you know, azure or aws are popping up that have some sort of chinese connection. so another way that chinese firms can get access to this sort of compute is not by directly importing it into the mainland, but setting up subsidiaries or signing partnerships with with new cloud companies that have the access have access to nvidia's best and, you know, nvidia's top in class chips, which just happened to be in johor, malaysia, as opposed to shenzhen. >> i'm glad you made that point, jordan. it was exactly the same point that i heard from a friend source who lives in singapore, which is, look, everybody knows singapore is a leading reexport hub, but there's also malaysia

right across the border. singapore may not have the space, but malaysia has it. so that might be one area to look at in terms of where and who's leasing those facilities. so may we talk to take him last hour. who said, look, even if you could smuggle the old leading edge chips in a suitcase, you won't be able to do that with blackwell. these things are like tanks, so you're not going to be carrying them into china that way. you're going to have to rely if you're trying to get around export controls on setting them up, basically releasing them from other nations. >> what we have been saying, kelly, for two years, is this big. >> breakthrough, right. >> that. >> you don't. >> need billions to train state of the art models? we have proven that we. >> built a state. >> of the art models for less than a million gpus, right? >> i don't. >> think it is a reason. >> to be. >> bearish, because we are on the cusp. >> of an enormous agentic. >> ai explosion. >> that is going to require more. inference than folks. >> can even fathom. whether or not. >> trump tightens. >> restrictions coming out. >> of his meeting with jensen

today, the only way for the us to stay ahead in generative. >> ai is. >> to continue. to achieve revolutionary breakthroughs. >> in training. >> and model architecture. the brute. force method. >> for training models is dead. >> so what do you think might come out of this meeting? i mean, to jordan's point, the us has gradually cracked down more and more on what nvidia can export. what's at stake here. >> so in. >> the enterprise. >> right in the us, the. >> trustworthiness of these models, the transparency of these. >> models is of. >> utmost importance. if you're talking to an. uber or a mars. >> you. >> know, they're not going to use models. >> where they. >> can't audit the training data. >> they don't. >> understand the provenance. >> there might. >> be. ip issues with. you know, now claims that. >> deep sea used open ai to create synthetic data. >> they used to train the models. >> so, you know. >> i think. >> what is at. >> stake from a export controls perspective is. >> is. >> much broader.

>> than deep sea. >> i think. >> it was. jordan that had said that it's not representative of where their startup ecosystem is. >> where their generative ai innovation ecosystem is. >> but really, like. >> we are on the cusp. >> of the most. incredible explosion of abundance in humanity. and we need. >> every country's. >> most smart people. >> working on this. so wherever. >> they end up. you know, we. >> need the kind of innovation that's coming. >> out of the us and coming out. >> of china. >> yeah, and nobody's there. jordan, i want to be very, very crystal clear. nobody's saying nvidia is doing anything wrong. i want to make that very, very clear. but i think what happened last week is deep sea comes out and they're like, listen, we did this basic thing and, you know, with six hamsters and a wheel and who needs all that ai money? and everybody panicked and the market panicked and stock fell. and i it's kind of the equivalent of somebody coming out and saying, we built a gm tahoe, but for $15,000. and, you know, whatever. people are just

confused. they don't know what happened. and there's a lot of people that are out there, including some on this on the air of this very fine network that have suggested that there's no way deep seek is doing what it's doing without using some of these high end chips and just pretending it's not. i don't know what's true or not. what's your take on that angle? >> so i think the biden administration allowed china to buy good enough chips to do really incredible ai. and what the trump administration is going to have to think really hard about is whether we should keep selling stuff that, you know, is maybe only just six months or a year off the frontier. lutnick, at his confirmation hearing yesterday, said, i'm thrilled to oversee bis, and i'm thrilled to coordinate and empower bis. when we say no, the answer has got to be no. and the and the truth is that the biden administration, the answer was, oh, maybe there's a loophole. and a year later we'll fix it. and, you know, huawei is going to find another loophole, and then maybe

we'll change it six months or a year later. and the sort of ooda loop of the biden administration in closing down these loopholes, allowing chinese firms to bring into china, much less malaysia, really excellent chips to train models that can compete with america's is something that the trump administration should really think about. hard. if they're trying to envision what an america first ai policy would really look like. >> yeah. and i think the fact that the deep sea founder is a guy that runs a big hedge fund, a lot of people like bill ackman online have sort of questioned it. we have to go. i have a feeling we have not heard the last of this very important story. may habib jordan schneider thank you both very much. have a great weekend. >> thanks. thank you so much. >> and china's ai challenge is wreaking havoc on the tech space this week. but listen to this. on the global market front, u.s. tech stocks are still worth more than all european equities combined. and our next guest says the volatility around tech and tariffs is a test that market bulls have passed. power market bulls have passed. power lunch. we'll be right back. business.

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improve your skin at omnia lux ledcom. >> welcome back. the dow is at session lows down 262 points as we've had a lot of conflicting headlines. but some confirmation from the white house last hour. tariffs are going into effect tomorrow. us mexico and china. we're also approaching the end of a week that turned out to be a stress test. but for the bulls instead of the banks, uncertainty around deep sea grokking nvidia microsoft warning about a weak outlook. apple missed on iphone sales expectations, with the exception of nvidia. broader tech isn't much worse for the wear, though. and listen to this data from bca research. for the first time in 50 years. u.s. tech stocks comprise more of global stock market cap than the entirety of european ones. here now to discuss is tom lee, head of research at fundstrat and cio of fundstrat capital. he's also a cnbc contributor. daniel newman is also with us. he's the ceo of the futurum group. tom, let's kind of start with the earnings piece of this. what did we learn this week? >> well, we've learned.

>> that a lot of stocks have moved post earnings, not because of whether they missed or beat. >> expectations, but. >> really what was sort of. >> priced in. i don't think it was just apple, but it was also tesla. these are two companies that have. >> really strong moats. >> i think there was a lot of fears that they'd disappoint, but these results were actually even below expectations. but the stocks rallied. i actually just think this is a sign of a healthy market as well. >> are there any individual names you'd worry about like a microsoft, which to our earlier guest point hasn't gone, you know, had a strong january a year ago and it's only up 5% since then. >> for the mac seven. when you look at the long term price histories and you take stocks even like amazon, there are many years where they are rangebound and then they break above a range. i think in the case of microsoft, if the stock has been rangebound for 12 months, i don't think it's actually

marking a big rounded top. i think to me, it's probably an example of where markets may have been too enthusiastic a year ago, but that does give investors an opportunity because the business continues to do well. >> tom. tom. daniel, what did you think we learned from earnings this week? >> yeah, i think there was two big factors. >> kelly it's good to see you. the deep sea situation changed the entire trajectory and showed a fragility. around this moat in training and how. strong the nvidia narrative is. >> but it also was actually incredibly bullish. the understanding of how. >> the diffusion and basically the efficiencies. >> that could. >> come with inference. >> and with scaling. >> laws showed that these companies like microsoft, you know, amazon, they. >> have huge upsides. >> and then, of course, the salesforces and servicenow is because. >> training isn't the workload. we think inference is 20. >> times or more. >> a larger opportunity than training. and we actually saw this week that if we could bring

those costs down. there's a ton of upside. so the earnings everyone was looking is where's the ai roi. that will. >> be the focus of 2025? >> tom, i don't know if you heard our segment on nvidia. you don't need to comment on nvidia necessarily, but how just can you tell us how important is nvidia to the macro stock market? >> well, nvidia is the leading company in the story of ai. so it is a very important franchise. it's a company that the actual lead in terms of developing the best chips continues to be far ahead of anyone else. if there is a change and a fork in the way ai moves forward and or the focus becomes more on applications, i don't think it makes nvidia any less important, but it does create more upside. ai is a sort of a multi decade story, and i'm sure there's going to be many story threads throughout that. so i, i think that the sell off

on monday was a panic for nvidia, but we had highlighted to our clients that it was the ninth worst single day decline. but the three times nvidia declined worse when we were not in a in a broad market bear market. that was the bottom tick for nvidia. and i think that was probably the case monday. >> yeah. because daniel i mean listen again with nvidia who knows where the stock goes. who knows where all these stories go. maybe they go nowhere. maybe nvidia doubles from here. but if it goes down as it's back to june levels, where will that market leadership come from. do we need a quote. and i'm doing air quotes for on the radio new nvidia. or can the 490 other stocks that we've ignored for five years finally carry the load? >> yeah, brian. >> i see a broadening out here. >> i see. >> these greater. efficiencies drive better models. they drive more innovation, better models, and that drives more consumption. a lot of people aren't talking about this, but if these copilots or agent

forces start to be utilized by enterprises, you're talking about what could be trillions of concurrent inferences of these assistants and agents working alongside humans, if they can bring the cost. of doing this down, and then they can charge dollars out to these. >> industries. >> the actual flow of revenue becomes much broader. and i think that's what we all want. it's been a very, very small subset of companies that have benefited from ai in a really meaningful way. what we see now is i think there's demand and desire to see that growth, and i think that's why everyone bought the story. there's a lot of flaws in the story. but the truth is, is ai will drive trillions in productivity, but it can't be just with 4 or 5, 6 or 7 companies. >> a quick note on that, daniel. i thought it was very interesting that broadcom was down more than nvidia on monday. when the narrative is if we're shifting from training to inferencing, shouldn't the custom silicon players. again i don't know that much about the science here benefit more the broadcom's, the marvell's and so forth. is that thesis correct?

is it intact? >> i put a note out immediately on that, that we've been talking a long time about the fact that we've seen certain parts of the nvidia moat moving to broadcom, or you could even say augmented by broadcom, marvell. all the hyperscalers are looking to create efficiencies with their own custom silicon. and we're all looking for ways to train for less, deliver inference for less and create less expensive tokens. and this goes all the way out to the edge with qualcomm and apple and other companies. that could be big beneficiaries. if we can bring ai to devices and to applications at a lower cost, and get the consumption and the adoption up. kelly. >> maybe that is exactly the last question, tom, i would ask of you, which is this week then a shift from the kind of provider ecosystem which is nvidia and all the utility plays, the power plays to the user ecosystem. apple, meta. the software names. >> well, i think one of the big lessons for me this week, kelly,

is the market broadened on monday. so if nvidia and i was so central and the moats were so important to the overall us economy, there should have been a bigger take down for the s&p. but financials and bitcoin and small caps actually did have a very good week. so i would say that as important as ai is, i do think we're probably overly fixated on ai being the only thing driving equities. we have gotten some pretty good data point even today on inflation. so to me, i think there's a lot of things that are keeping us exceptionalism alive. that's not purely ai. >> tom and daniel really appreciate your views guys. as always. tom lee, not the drummer. great to have you on power lunch, daniel. thank you very much as well. do appreciate it guys. appreciate it. all right. coming up we're going to take a look at the bond market. if that's not enough to hold your attention i don't know what

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♪♪ i sold a pillow! ♪ (action music) ♪ woah! i can't do it! agh! cut! this gap! it's just too big. bring on the double! aflac! after my hospital stay, aflac helped close the gap by paying me cash for expenses health insurance didn't cover. nothing covers gaps better than the aflac duck. aflaaaaac! aflac. get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. find an agent, get a quote at aflac.com. you do look like me. mhmm! investors, sophisticated investors, beginning investors. i'm always learning. >> closing bell over time for eastern cnbc. >> welcome back to power lunch. we've got some breaking news on meta. julia boorstin with the

details julia. >> well kelly the wall street journal is. reporting that meta is considering re-incorporating in texas or another state in exiting delaware. now i've reached out to meta for comment. and they say that this is not true. meta telling me there are no plans to move the company's corporate headquarters from california, but we have no additional comment. now, corporate headquarters is different from re-incorporating because right now meta's headquarters are in california, but the company is incorporated like many companies in delaware. now, this move would be similar to the move that elon musk made, who moved to reincorporate his companies in texas and nevada. so certainly something we're watching. but meta saying that they are not moving their headquarters outside of california. back over to you. >> a couple of thoughts, julie, on this. number one, when zuckerberg made that big announcement a few weeks ago about content moderation and all the changes, he did mention they were going to move the it's no longer fact checking team, the moderators, or whatever's left

of it out of california to texas. so there is one texas. yes, one one aspect of that already underway. the delaware issue i wonder about, because it kind of stems more from the fight that musk has had with that delaware judge over his pay package, which, you know, so many in corporate america are watching that maybe aren't going to face the same problems he has, but have considered whether to stay in that kind of default jurisdiction or not. >> yeah, certainly. there's so many different factors at play here. yes, you're absolutely right. meta did move its content moderation team to texas and those fact checkers. and the question is whether the legal residents moved to another state as well. now, in terms of the headquarters that is going to stay in california, when it comes to headquarters, you always have to think not just about where mark zuckerberg's primary residence is, but also all of those engineers that are based in the area. but the majority of fortune 500 companies incorporate in delaware, and it will be interesting to see how this all plays out. and we'll of course, be pushing meta for more. >> all right. thanks julia.

julia. boorstin. >> yeah. basically quickly, the idea is that they just want to get away from certain judges i think. right. kathleen mccormick who is the judge that you referenced in delaware, where they're talking about the pay package. by shifting jurisdiction, you simply shift your possible selection of judges because they have a rotating cast of judges. you're basically saying, i don't like the delaware judges. i want to go over here. >> but again, for delaware, which a lot of its sort of its special sauce has been this is where companies are incorporated, right? this is kind of the default headquarters for corporate america. so it began with this fight between musk and that judge you mentioned. but it could turn into something a little bit bigger and it could be more of a problem for them. some of the institutions. >> there, maybe the judges have changed. there's a lot to consider. we shall see. but by the way, we have got a cnbc news update for that. let's get to leslie picker. >> thank you brian i'm. >> leslie picker. >> with the cnbc news update. the white house confirmed today that special envoy richard grenell is. >> in. >> venezuela to. >> speak with president nicolas. >> maduro's government. >> about taking back deported migrants. >> who have committed crimes and

to release. >> a number. >> of americans. >> imprisoned there. >> the white house. >> says grenell's visit. >> does. >> not mean the u.s. recognizes maduro as president after the recently disputed election there. federal prosecutors. today said. >> a. >> man agreed to plead guilty. >> to unsafely operating a drone that. >> collided with. >> firefighting aircraft during the deadly palisades fire in los angeles. the incident grounded those aircraft. >> for several days. >> in the plea agreement. the suspect will avoid prison time by paying full. restitution and do 150 hours of wildfire related community service. and nasa today became the latest federal agency. >> to ban. >> the use of chinese ai startup deep seek over. security and. privacy concerns. the navy made a similar move last week, and axios reported thursday that congressional offices were being told that deep seek is, quote, unauthorized for official house use. i would expect this is not the last of the groups and the

agencies that we hear banning deep seek, brian. >> whatever deep seek may be. but we should ask deep seek. we'll see. leslie picker, thank you very much. all right. let's get a quick check on the market, especially for our listeners in the car. the nasdaq is up right now, but it's up about one quarter of 1%. and on its way down, it was up more than 1% earlier. kelly now up 0.27%. the s&p 500 down a little. but earlier today was above 6100. that is a new record. you got the cruise lines which have done pretty well this week. let's go down to the bond market with our friend rick santelli. because what happens with bond yields impact stocks. >> yeah brian it's very interesting. you're talking about equities. >> losing. >> a little bit of their. mojo into the late session on a friday. >> same is true with treasuries. we're seeing. some selling. >> coming in the. >> 30 year and. >> the ten year. the ten year especially is ready to make new high yields on the day. but to be fair yields are. >> up slightly in the.

>> short end. they're up a little more. we're up about 2 or 3 basis points in the ten year. but on the week all maturities are lower two years down about five basis points. a ten year is down about eight basis points. but today it was all about the data. and i think the viewers, viewers make sure you have your good glasses on, because i want you to look at a few. charts and think about what you're looking at today. the notion was, is that the news is good. austan goolsbee said. we're making progress. let's look at the progress we're making. these are. >> all one year. >> charts of all the data points that we had today on inflation. first chart pce. >> month over month. >> it came in today up 3/10. our last look was up one tenths. that's a one year chart. now let's move to the core. and we could debate whether it makes any sense. >> nowadays to move. >> food and energy and consider those the important charts. but nonetheless this. >> is a month. >> over month core. last look. >> it. >> was well it was. 0.1 new look 2/10. now granted there might be some decimal places here, but

are we really going to go there? all right. now let's go year over year. this is year over year. headline 2.6. last look 2.4. finally year over year core. now this one gets a little dicey. technically it's 2.8. last look 2.8 this look. but technically if you. >> really want. >> to get down to it. month was 2.81. this month is 2.79. i say that's sideways, but as i look at all these charts and a very agnostic way, looks. >> to me like they're hunkering. >> down, it looks to me like a consolidation trade doesn't look like we're making progress. it doesn't look like we're losing any ground. but to think that we should have our happy faces on it doesn't. >> look like any of. >> these charts portray 2%. then we play the game, we analyze, we take the monthly. rates for a month or two. we analyze them to three and six months. we've done that a lot. and as you see, just on these one year charts, every one of those charts has a point that was lower in the past than

it is now. >> so when you. >> analyze those numbers, you prove to be wrong. >> draw your. >> own conclusions. >> all i'm. >> saying is because no matter what tariffs do, standalone data warrants a pause. kelly, back to you. >> thank you very much for the dissection, rick. up next, president trump's tariffs are likely to kick in tomorrow if he does go through with it. what exactly will they look like. we'll talk about that next. >> the bond report is brought to you by pimco, a global leader in active fixed income. >> ready for. >> the big meeting. >> i have to write this. >> project plan. >> i just need. >> to reply to. >> 40 emails. >> every day. your team gets sucked into endless writing tasks, and every day hours disappear for everyone except pam. hey, pam. because pam uses grammarly's ai to write in a few clicks, not a few hours. it's one seamless experience everywhere, and it works for the whole enterprise. that's why

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with a single command. —with google gemini. let me try it. add recipes with overripe bananas to my “dessert ideas” note. that's what you chose to ask it? i had other things planned. ask how to get up to one thousand dollars off the new samsung galaxy s25 ultra with xfinity mobile. back to power lunch. despite what you might hear, 25% tariffs are set to hit goods from mexico and canada tomorrow. there were reports to the contrary, but the white house this afternoon reiterating its intentions to go through with those tariffs. let's bring in steve liesman for more on this because there were some questions. those questions apparently have been answered, at least for now. >> i hope so here, president trump, as soon as this weekend could levy those 25% tariffs. what we're saying he's going to do on both canada and mexico. last week, he said the us has

been treated unfairly by canada, saying it had a trade deficit of 200 to $250 billion with the us. but according to us trade data, the us canada deficit is actually $41 billion is lower than the president has said a modest us trade surplus. you can see there from 2016 to 2020 turned into a deficit, in part because the us economy did better than canada. that's what happens when we do well. we import a lot of stuff, but also because of the increased importation of cheaper canadian oil. we'll talk about that in a second. now, white house official telling cnbc the president was talking more broadly, including greater us spending on defense for nato and norad in the imbalance. but the $41 billion dollar trade deficit, it is a rounding error on a $922 billion trade relationship that is the world's biggest partnership. canada the largest buyer of us exports, just as the us does. they do have some barriers and limits on us goods. increasing imports of canadian oil is a big reason for that surplus. but more importantly, a trade surplus or deficit is not something most economists think matters at all.

if we get cheaper oil or widgets or gizmos from canada and make it into something more profitable, and we give them our funny green paper in return, the us economy wins. the president seems to reject that basic trade. and who better to talk about the sludgy truth of canadian oil than brian? heavy, crude sullivan himself. >> that's actually what they call me. if there's heavy in the boys and there's heavy crude. heavy crude is my rap name. and then they moved it on. all right, so let's talk about oil because you're going to moderate here. we're going right at it here. >> i'm ready. >> so here's the thing. so we're talking about this oil story from canada. the big part of the story right now outside of hockey and good cheer, our number one import from canada is actually oil. it's a couple hundred thousand barrels per day, steve, but that's actually a pretty small amount. so we use we consume 20 million barrels of oil. that's mmbpd million barrel per day in the united states. we make about 13, 13.2 million. so there you go. the rest the gap 7 million or so is imported. some

of that does come from canada, which to your point tends to produce more sludgy, heavier oil. so who might get hit with higher gasoline prices if the tariff is levied? well, for those of our viewers who live and work close to canada, it's you almost all that imported canadian oil. steve ends up in refineries. most of the big ones are in illinois, ones in lima, not lima, lima, ohio, and a few. there you go, a small ones in montana. so if you live in the upper midwest, right? if you're a friend in fond du lac, wisconsin, you're probably going to pay or maybe even like a seattle area. but here's the rub. the biden white house canceled the keystone xl pipeline. yeah, so there's a lot of confusion there. we hear on the radio that keystone has been canceled. no it's not. keystone has been running for over a decade. the xl, which stands. >> for extension. >> stands for export lead, not extra large pipeline. the kids. >> what do i would know about. >> in the husky. section of the

store? the keystone xl was canceled. that's more barrels of oil per day than would the tariff be levied on. and so if you're worried about inflation, i don't know. do they just bring back the xl? >> i am not so dumb as to argue heavy crude with you or oil or anything. my point is that canadian oil is similar to other issues that are out there. it's something we bring in. we had an economist in canada calculate for us, brian, that if we were to pay, if we were to replace the canadian oil with west texas oil, it would cost us an additional $20 billion a year. not only that, as you know, we refined some of that oil. you know, where we send it back to canada. they buy some of the refined stuff from us, like quebec. right? exactly. they buy some. it's as if they're the 51st state already. no, but it doesn't matter. we don't have to pay their health care or their social security. they give us stuff. we give them stuff. look at the chart. $922 billion. my only point is that the $40

billion is a it's a rounding error. more so than that, it's caused by this recent increase in canadian oil, for which we get a good deal. there's all kinds of products across the spectrum. now, he may be doing this because of fentanyl. he may be doing immigration more likely. i think he's doing it because he wants a revenue source to pay for his tax cuts. >> fairly set, i will say. i will say this and you're right on everything. a lot of the oil, though, you wonder why do we why do we import so much if we make so much or can we don't make it, we drill it because it's about where it is, right? it's like, you know, we don't want to get into oil. from the midland, texas to the middle of ohio. see what i did? there is a hard thing to do. so a lot of it is where it is. here's the thing. i would say the trump administration, i think michigan, wisconsin are pretty important states politically. i'm just told that. >> right. >> do you want to jack up any costs on those people right now? >> i think that's a good that's an interesting point. whether or not he's going to deal with that, because you're going to have a price level, you may not have an inflation increase was

the rate. no, but you could have a price level. >> because you could argue that michigan is the 12th province rather than canada's the 51st state. >> any way you want to cut it. >> a 25 to $0.75 is what patrick de haan said. we could see gas prices go up by if it passed big hit. if you live especially in the most likely affected areas again, he might. yesterday he was saying oil might not be part of it. so. >> right. well yeah. but the canadians could also tariff it too. but the point is that we import the canadian oil because there are captured seller. they're trying to send stuff out through alberta, if i'm not mistaken. yes. almost all pipelines there and but but they, they sell to us at a lower price in part because it's heavier but also because they're captured. they have to sell to us. so. >> you know. >> alberta told me i was feeling lost, lacking in some direction. >> althia but. >> althia yeah you're right. sorry about that. good stuff. alberta is the eric clapton song. >> yes, i think this is a big deal. the market doesn't like this. all of a sudden we were puzzling in the newsroom there. was the market going to react to this. and i mean, it's it looks like it's off the lows. now, where are we now?

>> look, just to your left. >> there to my. >> left down about half a percent. dow's down two. >> keep going left till you come back. >> we were down as much as 300. it's interesting i don't know that this is right now a stock story i think what it is it's a business story. it's an economic story i believe i don't know what you guys think that the market is. the stocks have reacted to this. >> well, yes. >> and also because the categories most affected would be basically lumber, housing, autos. that's another one. fruit, vegetables, oil. i mean we're talking about essentials and some pretty important. >> it's a very big deal to be thinking about 25% tariffs on our two biggest trading partners. and the chips are going to fall someplace. and i don't know that everybody is sure where they're going to fall. >> we'll ask our next guest steve. thanks thanks. our next guest is skeptical that tariffs will actually go into place. a lot of people were until, i don't know, maybe an hour ago. joining us now is evercore isi senior managing director sarah bianchi wanted to give you that disclaimer, sarah, because what do you think now post press conference. >> well, i think. >> we're. >> trying to. >> make a distinction. >> between whether he announces the tariffs tomorrow, which i actually do think is likely and

whether he actually then later implements them. so what we expect tomorrow if there's no deal on the border or on fentanyl, is that he will do some kind of executive order that says we. >> are going. >> to in the next month, 30 days, by march 1st, whatever put in place implement these tariffs. it does take time for these to get into the systems at customs and other places. right. so he is going to buy a little bit of time for implementation. and that's really where we believe the negotiation. if the canadians and mexicans aren't serious. in the white house's view at this point about the kind of demands they want on immigration and fentanyl, they will be by march 1st. and so i do think he's going to make an announcement, an executive order tomorrow. but by the time they are actually implemented in a few weeks, yeah, that's where we're much more skeptical. >> sarah. big kind of billion dollar question here. do you

think it's going to be universal? do you think it includes or excludes oil. do you think it ends up just being steel and aluminum? >> well it's interesting. normally president trump, when we looked at it in in in trump 45 or trump 1.0, he didn't really do universal tariffs. and we did see as you mentioned, him making comments about perhaps oil should be out of it. and then later there are stories that perhaps there will be some exclusions. i do think ultimately, again, i don't think these will be implemented, but i do. i can see him moving oil out of it. the other big area, and this is on the mexico side is auto imports. that would be an enormous impact on gm and other united states auto makers. i think perhaps he does a blanket with maybe only the oil exception coming out the door. but again, by the time we get to implementation, if there's anything at all, it will be on a

very narrow set of products. >> okay, so you think we get a splashy announcement tomorrow, but one that isn't, you know, hey, this this takes effect. it takes effect immediately, you know, duck and cover and so forth. >> yeah. they'll still have time to implement. and again, even to get these through the kind of tariff system, if you will, customs. all of that takes a week to ten days. and i think he'll give a little bit more time again, because here the goal is not i don't on this issue. i don't think it's revenue or any other really, even about the trade imbalance, although he is concerned about what that with mexico and partner in this case, i think it is about a leverage for these other policy priorities for sure. >> and we've seen mexican canadian stocks turn lower. their currencies are lower on the sense that maybe this is in fact coming for now. sarah, thanks. appreciate it. sarah bianchi with evercore isi. >> all right. on deck exxonmobil shares down. we're going to give you details on why. and three stock watch. >> crypto watch is sponsored by

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>> welcome back. we're tracking some potentially tariff related stocks because the white house is saying that tariffs will kick in tomorrow. and they're referring to tariffs on canada and mexico. yes. also on china. check out some of these intraday moves. canada goose the high end jacket maker. most of its production is in canada. you can see that dip lower midday. it's down around 4% right now. chipotle. the concern about the impact of potentially higher avocado prices from mexico if this goes through. that stock down about 1%. mission produce is the leading supplier of avocados from mexico to the us. constellation brands another one they make modelo corona. those last two and the shares are down about 2%. the stocks are down about 20% for both constellation and for avocado maker mission produce in january. so some of this is already priced into the market. and we'll find out i guess tomorrow and next week. guess tomorrow and next week. what's (♪♪) the booking app i used didn't have agentforce. so an ai agent didn't know to move my reservations inside...

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and we're going to hit three different names today that reported earnings and are on the move this afternoon here with our trades. jessica inskip, director of investor research at stockbrokers. com. all right jessica let's start with exxon. because the shares are down around 2%. they beat eps fell short on revenue. and we were just talking about so many things that could be in play here with tariffs. what do you do with the stock. >> yeah with exxon i'm actually have a bearish view on this. i think it's finding neutrality. so it's really important for it to actually find support at around 106 84 which is the june and september lows. if we do not find support there and it breaks, we would no longer be in that neutral view. and then i would turn extremely bearish. and it's important to note with my charts, i love to use the 13, 26 and 40 weekly moving averages. those are rolling quarterly because we look at it from an earnings basis, especially with this segment here. and relative to oil, we have the same view. so very important to make sure that the. >> herd that you are, you're close to turning very bearish on

exxon. i am okay. >> i am if it breaks 684. >> got to bring inflation down. drill baby drill. i'm not an expert. more of some commodity tends to bring prices down. you know it's not a commodity. apparently uggs shoes or hoka shoes. jessica i don't know what you're wearing right now. you don't have to show us. but deckers outdoors, the stock they make both those brands stock tumbling. full year revenue guidance. what's your take on deck? >> yeah, absolutely. i'm wearing slippers. and you know what? those actually overtook and were a big trend on social media. so i was surprised with the earnings results here. nonetheless. deck i it broke its bullish trading cycle. and that's also turned neutral i'm watching the support around 185 for this one. if that breaks then we're going to have a sell signal on the macd because we broke that first line of defense at the 13 weekly moving average. if we have any more negative view it's going to immediately just add to that calculation which is ema. so it puts a lot

more weight on forward looking or recent prices. and that is a very strong sell signal. so i'm not bullish on this one either. neutral conditionally bearish. if it breaks that support line around 185 we'll call. >> it i wonder what they do if their competitive edge is eroding. all right. let's move along to atlassian and atlassian. why the shares are at a new 52 week high. they posted better than expected results in the quarter. the stock is up 14%. you jump in here. >> i actually would i think this is a beautiful, beautiful chart. i love pulling this up. today brought me so much joy. this isn't a bullish trading cycle. and you can see i have a longer view here. i'm looking at over a five year period. and again those 1326 and 40 week moving averages you can see the difference. now those are acting as support. the slope. the line is sloping upwards. that's giving me an indication that quarter over quarter prices increasing. so from a technical view that lines up with what we want to see from a fundamental view. now, my resistance right now is around 318, which is

which is testing today. and then from there it's 352. and if that breaks, that confirms a big trend. but even more so we've got a big base breakout, which tells me that this is on a. >> breakout, says slippers inskip. thank you very much. appreciate it. instep. thanks for watching power lunch. >> it's going to be a busy weekend. closing bell starts now. >> all right. welcome to closing bell i'm scott wapner live from post nine here at the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with this late day weakness in the market. the white house says tariffs are coming this weekend on mexico, canada and china. take a look at the majors with 60 to go in regulation nasdaq now red. the dow down about two thirds of 1%. s&p is negative as well. all of this really happening within the last hour. after those headlines hit the market got progressively weaker. we'll see where things head over the final 60. we will ask the wharton school's jeremy siegel what all of this means. now for stocks. the other big story we are watching as