lower year to date and month of january now over the s&p up 2.5%. what happens next. >> amazon earnings next week. alphabet earnings amd earnings. we're going to keep on going. but that's going to do it for us here at overtime. >> yeah a lot more coming on fast money which starts right now. >> live from the nasdaq marketsite in the heart. >> of new. >> york. >> city's times square. >> this is. >> fast money. here's what's on tap tonight. under pressure nvidia shares. >> sinking over. >> 15% this. >> week as. >> deep sea trade fears. >> roiled the semi sector. is this. >> finally the start of the great rotation out of tech? >> we'll debate that and. >> a. >> new study into. the reasons patients stop and. restart using. >> weight loss drugs. >> we'll talk to the. lead author to find out. >> what it could mean for the glp one market. plus, shares of. >> deckers get decked after earnings. >> the chart master lays out. >> his. potential breakout. >> stars, and the nasdaq. >> 100 turns 40. >> how the index. >> has changed over the years

and what it says about investor appetites. i'm melissa lee. >> coming to you. >> live. >> from studio b at the nasdaq on the desk tonight. tim seymour, courtney. >> garcia, dan nathan and carter braxton worth. we're going to get to the nvidia. >> sell off in just a moment. but we do want to start with. >> a sweeping announcement from the president. >> that sent stocks. >> sharply lower late in the session. trump confirming the tariffs on canada, mexico and china will go into effect tomorrow. >> and promising levies are coming for chips, energy and metals. cnbc's megan costello has got all the latest. megan. >> melissa, we just finished hearing from the president from the oval office, spent about 30 minutes talking to reporters and clarifying his views on all of these points, saying that yes, those tariffs will be taking effect beginning tomorrow. it's going to be 25% on canada and mexico, 10% on china, he says. it's going to be entirely because of the flow of fentanyl. he also said, quote, we are not looking for a concession, suggesting that at this point there is nothing left that any of the three countries could do in order to escape those tariffs taking effect within 24 hours. he also said the tariff rate could increase substantially,

but it also could not, leaving the door open for some changes there. he also said that on canadian crude oil specifically, he would probably reduce that tariff rate to 10%. all other canadian goods will see a 25% tariff, but canadian crude is likely going to see only a 10% tariff. he then spent a lot of time talking about many more sets of tariffs that he is considering, that are likely to take effect in the future, specifically on oil and gas, he says around february 18th, they're looking at putting tariffs on oil and gas from all countries. it sounds like he also mentioned chips and things associated with chips, steel and aluminum higher than he imposed in the first term. he also said copper, but said that one would take a little bit longer, presumably because it requires an investigation. and then he spoke about various forms of medicines and pharmaceuticals that he wants to see tariffs on as well. he also was asked whether he's thinking about putting tariffs on all goods coming in from the european union. and he said absolutely, he sees a lot of issues with that trading relationships with the eu. so more to come on that front as well. and then finally

he was also talking a little bit about any reaction to the tariffs. he says that he's not concerned about market reaction to these tariffs. he says tariffs don't cause inflation. in his words they cause success. and that while there could be some temporary short term disruption people will understand that. melissa. so a whole lot there to sift through on tariffs. and then just one final headline to bring you since we just hit 5:00 pm, cbs news is reporting that trump officials are putting a pause on most federal government websites. beginning now at 5 p.m, we are seeing some beginning to come down, presumably that so those agencies can begin to scrub their websites for anything mentioning diversity, equity and inclusion. so more to watch on that front as well. >> melissa megan thank you. >> that was a lot. >> megan cassella. >> from washington dc. >> by the way, trump also said we'll be doing something very substantial in tariffs with the european union. so we are seeing sharp reactions in the currency markets to a lot of these headlines. peso, canadian dollar as well as the euro taking a hit on the back. but what's your

initial take here. we sort of knew this was going to happen. we didn't know it was going to happen in quite this way. we didn't know it was here we are. >> we didn't know. >> saturday we heard march 1st. i thought march 1st was the headline this morning for canada and mexico as we started to digest that yesterday. china. we've we've had this number out there 10% on some level has already been in the market and already kind of a relief. the concept of this being to reverse flow of illegal immigrants and. >> illegal. >> drugs is, you know, one way to get going on it. i mean, there's a lot of different. rationale out there from the administration as to why these things are happening. ultimately, it's really about a competitive balance that they believe anyone who's in deficit, we're in deficit too, should be had tariffs put on them. it's interesting to think about the currency markets because going into this, you can make an argument that. >> the. >> us dollar was already strong and that there was a lot of pressure actually potentially on multinationals in this country because of the stronger dollar. we started to hear about that in earnings season. >> you know, when i hear that. >> at least at this stage of a cycle, that doesn't really bother me as an investor. >> for a lot.

>> of these companies. >> but for the european union. >> which which. >> had. >> a 25 basis point cut this week, ecb if anything was rumored to maybe they could go more. they will go more. i think. >> we're breaking. >> parity here. and i think and i think it will be just to be clear, i think that will be a mitigating factor on inflation. i think a stronger dollar certainly will have more buying power and be helpful, but we don't really know what the impact of all this. and it's just interesting to see how quickly tariffs have come back into the market. >> which closed on the. >> lows today. but think about where we were a. >> week ago. yeah. >> so you know, he said that. >> he doesn't expect the. markets to be affected and. >> that it's. >> not going to affect inflation. i'll just make this point. we just got this gdp number at 2.3%. this is after two consecutive 3%. >> gdp prints. >> you know, quarterly. and so the economy was kind of limping into. >> the end. >> of the year. i think expectations were higher. >> than that for q4. so one of the things we. >> can. >> be. >> fairly certain on. >> if. >> these sorts of tariffs stay on. >> some of these key industries, it is going. >> to weaken. >> economic demand here. it just will. >> and so at. >> the end of the day, you know.

>> the president. >> uses the stock. >> market as a report card. but if the economy starts to weak. >> weaken, the s&p is going to start to anticipate that. >> i mean. >> the dollar obviously is such an important thing. the sector of course, of the area, the market has the biggest exposure is tech, i mean bar none. right. so obviously the big consumer staples, the big energy names. but technology is the highest sort of exposure to a weaker strong dollar. and it's no nonsense when the s&p is doing one thing. but the tech now down. >> on the year. >> you've got semis struggling. and i think a lot of it has to do with not only the great appreciation that preceded this start to the year, but the dollar. >> right. >> yeah. and i think a. >> lot of this too, people. >> were wondering. >> are the tariffs just going to be negotiation tactics. or are. >> these actually going to come on. >> and clearly we're. >> seeing these are coming on. and this is why the. >> bond markets have been pricing. >> in inflation. >> i mean this whether it's tariffs whether it's tax cuts i mean a lot of these are. >> inflationary policies. >> and that is why markets. >> are concerned about. >> where inflation is going. >> so they're optimistic. >> about deregulation. >> they are. >> worried about inflation. >> markets are kind of up and down. and they're trying. >> to.

>> figure out where that's going to go. but i would expect that's going. >> to continue to affect the. >> markets as this news. >> continues to come out. >> i mean, we've been thinking about oil and gas and commodities and so on in terms of the impact of tariffs. but when you think about pharmaceuticals, you know, you think about the inputs into drugs that are manufactured here in the united states. but but the inputs come from abroad. that's where you start thinking, maybe we have not yet really fully digested the impact of tariffs and the ripple effects that can have across several different industries. >> well, and. >> that's it. and we hadn't. >> really heard a whole. >> lot about the impact for health care, but. >> certainly for pharma specifically. >> and so that that that's. part of where the market's uncertainty around really what's going. to what's coming next, what kind of teeth will there be attached to this? >> you know, the. >> other side of what we were hearing before we. >> heard about starting. >> saturday with canada and mexico. >> is that okay? there'll be some offsets. >> there's going to be a lot of. >> trading going. >> on between the lines and that, you know, maybe the headlines will be busier. >> than, than actually. >> the reality of this. so i get back to markets which today also. >> had to digest a. pc pce. >> number, which most people know is a big. >> a big number for the.

>> fed to follow, which came. >> in significantly higher. again, it's all relative. >> than expected. >> so to the extent. >> that inflation is something that we're. >> still fighting, we had a fed this week that pretty much kind of. >> said as much. >> they they. >> they argued that the change in the. language was really just to clean. >> up the. >> statement a little bit. >> but but the reality is inflation is still an issue here. and markets especially the part of the. >> market, carter is. >> referring to the. >> tech world. i mean, let's be clear. megacap tech. >> should be the most insulated from inflation here. >> and that's what is what seems to be struggling. >> yeah. let's talk about that here. because nvidia really closed out a rough week here. the stock unable to rebound from monday's deep sea scare. it is down nearly 16% since then. that is its worst week since september 2022. nvidia now off more than 21% off record highs, hit the start of the month, putting it firmly in bear market territory. but while tech and semis put pressure on the broader markets, there were some winners here on the week. communication services, staples, health care, financials, posting solid gains. we saw this on monday too. we saw good breadth in the market outside of technology. so is this the start of a rotation that that may

stick here? carter. >> well, the. >> one thing about. >> communications is they change it. we know is at&t and verizon. what they got in there. >> is google. >> meta and netflix. those are tech. so certain tech let's just call it tech is holding up well. whereas semis and i and some of this stuff is struggling. so very mixed bag on that score. but it is important that the things that really led us are starting to churn and struggle. >> yeah. what do you make of this sort of rotation that we saw this week. yeah. >> and this. >> is. >> really what we've been. >> looking to do the last several months. i don't necessarily think that there. >> is some downturn. >> that's coming in tech or ai. i think some of this is happening with dc is probably. >> a little bit overblown here. >> but i do think you want to be looking. >> at those other areas. >> of the market. you want to be looking at things like banks and things like cyclicals. i think a lot of those are going to. >> continue to do. >> well here. and i think when you look at ai, especially with. the news this week, if it really is as cheap and as quick to create as they're saying, and i know there's a lot of questions about that. the way to play that

is with the. other 493 stocks in the s&p 500, if it's going to become much more accessible. >> to these. >> other companies. it's going to really increase productivity. it's going to make them much more efficient. and yes, it might be a longer term play, but i think it's going to be a good thing for the markets in the long run. but the overall markets, not just those seven companies. >> and by the way, it's not just deep seek on nvidia. it's tariffs right. so if they have faced further curbs in terms of the kinds of chips they can sell to china and their revenues will be limited in that respect on top of the deep sea scare. i mean, there are a couple reasons why you might be scared. >> yeah. >> and before. >> deep sea, we're. >> already starting. >> to wonder if. >> there. >> was an overbuild. >> as far as infrastructure. >> is concerned, a lot of these companies that actually. >> need the chips and. >> are building out the data centers, i mean, they had been ordering fairly aggressively. at some point you're going to see a. >> drop off in that orders. >> we've already seen deceleration of growth in nvidia. i mean, a lot of folks have been waiting for this in nvidia. and again, down, what, 20% you just said from the. >> highs. >> you know, go back to last summer. into early august nvidia was down 35%. so this is kind of the run. >> of the. >> mill sort of move. >> for nvidia. except this time

it really does seem. about something fundamental. the last. time it was technical. it was momentum driven. it was very crowded. i think since then. >> we had. >> some of the guys like marvel and broadcom join the. party because some of nvidia's. >> largest customers have. >> been contracting with them to make specialized. >> chips for. >> products and services. that that was always going to happen, right. what we didn't see is amd and intel joined the party. right. so there's the semi trade. >> was very. >> very narrow. the last thing i'll just say is that, you know, microsoft and those results i mean we haven't even mentioned that yet. down 6%. it's been a massive underperformer. microsoft was one of the early beneficiaries in the stock market in early 23 from their partnership with openai. so think about everything we learned here. >> maybe these hyperscalers don't. >> need as many chips to train the models and make new models. all right. so that happened. >> this week. then we. >> have a situation where openai and microsoft, their relationship. >> has been fraying. >> a. >> little bit. >> openai is a big. customer of microsoft's. azure cloud. right. and so at the end of the day, you know, there's some definitely some push and pull there. last thing, openai is in the market to raise tens of billions of dollars right now that softbank is supposedly going to kind of lead. so a lot

of things a little bit for everybody. but to me, it really feels like this trade is cooling a little bit. >> in terms of rotation, which is obviously always a part of markets trying to figure out where you can win or deliver. alpha, the biggest single rotation year to date, of course, is europe right. we and that's value right. so you're talking about the stoxx 600 europe are equivalent s&p is a 15 pe. it's up 7.5%. the dax the big player. germany's up eight and a half. and so they're very little tech there. there's very little ai. they're very little anything except big heavy industrials banks energy stocks that have lagged and money has gone there. that's the biggest single rotation going on. >> i agree with that. >> i run an international etf. i mean i see the european banks with i think balance sheets that are as good as the american ones. people think that europe's a mess. it is in terms of the public side of it. but again, the private banks, even though you can argue deutsche bank is a quasi sovereign, at the end of the day, ecb is probably still the place you'd be most worried. european banks are paying higher dividends. they're cheaper. sap, siemens i mean, think about the industrial spot across europe,

which is underperformed over the last couple of years. remember the underperformance of the mag seven, or at least the top five tech companies in the world is partially a, you know, partially at least. what was a big impact to the headwinds on investing around the world? again, there was a crowding out effect. so i like that call. i continue to think that you could look all the way back to march of last year and say semis peaked there. i mean, outside of nvidia, you could look at amd. i mean, amd has hurt a lot of investors over the last 18 months. it happens to be the a in band, by the way. so it may be a different year. but anyway, i think it's a fascinating time. >> you wanted broadening. you're getting it. >> all right. meantime, while stocks ended the month on a down note, our next guest says the markets and fed are overly sanguine on growth and overly pessimistic on inflation. jack hennessy of natixis investment managers joins us now on the fast line. jj great to have you with us. a week ago we didn't have all these this cascade of tariffs coming down the pike on on saturday. we didn't have the deep sea scare. does your view of the market change.

>> you know i think you still have to look at the underlying dynamics here. and the fundamentals of the us economy are still very strong. you know we're looking at nominal growth coming in probably closer to 4% for the full year, slowing from 5%. and that's still above trend levels. and so when you think about that backdrop that's still pretty good for i think corporate earnings here. and that's still what it all comes down to. so look past a little bit of this geopolitical noise. and really the underlying story here is the foundational economic backdrop for the us economy is still pretty robust. >> i completely get that. >> you can say it's noise. i mean, the exxonmobil ceo on the conference call actually said, you know, tariffs are just speculation that it's been driven higher by the media. so there is that point of view. but but corporate earnings in some respects, i mean it's backward looking. granted the guidance is forward looking. but right now the snapshots that we're getting is the reflection of an economy that is a capsule in time that is no longer the economy we now have with tariffs in place. how do you interpret the impact of tariffs, even if it is in the next 3 to 6 months, because the

next 3 to 6 months impacts the guide that companies are giving now, as well as the guide for the rest of the year. >> and that's going to be a wild card, i think, going forward. right. because, you know, we've heard starts and fits right. on day one we were supposed to get tariffs. we didn't. then we were going to see columbia being tariff. well they backed down on that one you know then it was well march 1st. now it's february 1st. so you know a lot of this is still a lot of headline news coming out. so it's really difficult i think to really adjust portfolios here because the bottom line tariffs are still probably going to be a negotiation tool. you're going to start high, ratchet it back down until you get something. but that number if we end up having to implement tariffs is probably going to be something much lower and maybe less impactful. so i hate to say it, but you almost have to be reactionary with some of this stuff rather than proactive. >> and jack, this is courtney here. thanks for coming. i'm curious about your outlook on inflation. right. so you actually. >> mentioned here that. people are. >> overly pessimistic with inflation. and i'm curious here if inflation kind of. >> stays. >> where it's at. >> we have this higher. >> for longer. rates are not

going up but not coming down from here. do you see that as problematic or can the economy continue to do well with where rates and inflation currently are? >> you know, i think we're in an okay spot. you know, i certainly would like to see rates continuing to come down, something, you know, closer to the low fours or the, you know, the higher threes with the ten year. but you know when i take a step back and look at the inflation backdrop, you know i think the big picture level says it. all right. and we're seeing the labor market slow. as a result. you should expect to see wage growth continuing to come down. and then you know from that perspective where do you get the demand pull from. and then you start looking at what's going on with regard to housing. you know, you look at all the real time indicators. so that continues to come down. so between those two things, i certainly have a hard time seeing inflation accelerating. maybe it comes down slower than expected but i think it still heads lower. and that i think, you know, basically plays to the idea that maybe we should be expecting more cuts than hikes in here over the rest of 2025. >> jack, great to speak with you. thanks for your time. >> appreciate it. thank you. >> jack jarnuszkiewicz do you

agree with jj? >> well. >> you. >> know. cuts as we get back into the second half of the year may be a reality. i mean, the fed is going to be watching the labor market, you know, laser focused on. >> the dynamics. >> that i think looked kind of weak last fall, which. put the 50 bip moved out of the gates. i think the markets right now are certainly trying to digest where we've had a tremendous headwind from things that we just don't know about. i think this week shook markets to their core. you had a challenge, at least to the whole ethos around the chip. world and the infrastructure spend around it. you also had dynamics around tariffs that we didn't think. i also just think the strategic war with china as it relates to chips, how important companies like taiwan semi. >> are in the global. >> sphere, and how. worried we should. >> be in the. >> us if some of these things get a lot worse. that's what this week was about. >> we came into this week feeling almost breathless. >> and without any concern. and you know. >> welcome to reality. yeah. you know, listen again on the inflation stuff. if tariffs come in and they stay here and they cause the economy to weaken, inflation is going to come down. i mean like that's just going to

happen here. and again you know we were worried about stagflation. but look at the numbers that we put up last year with inflation on a cumulative level still pretty high. so at the end of the day, you know we went from talking about. >> rate hikes. >> maybe in the back half of. this year to possibly going back to if i'm looking at the cme fedwatch tool, i'm looking at june and it's still pricing about a 50% probability of four and a quarter on the upper band. so that would be another 25 basis points. you know like it's a coin flip. so at the end of the day i just think that inflation probably topped out is my guess. and you know, now it's up to the economy just to try to hang in there a little bit. >> coming up, more on tariff turmoil in the energy sector. oil closing on a losing week and two energy giants commenting on the moves in their latest earnings reports. more on that next. plus, hitting the deck, the parent company of ugg and hoka plunging despite raising full year guidance, the details on that disconnect right after this. >> this is fast money. melissa lee right here on cnbc.

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left the fed. the justice department says the info was passed that rogers passed was, quote, economically valuable. they went on to say that the data provided could allow china to manipulate us markets. he provided info, quote, under the guise of teaching classes. the indictment cites two unnamed coconspirators who worked with who the indictment says worked for the chinese intelligence apparatus and presented themselves as graduate students. he was paid $450,000 in 2023 as a part time professor at a chinese university. the fed declined to make any public comments about this, and the federal reserve inspector general, who was involved in this but is quoted in this, could not immediately be reached for comment. melissa. >> wow, steve. thank you. steve liesman. pleasure. a pair of oil giants dropping after their earnings reports this morning. chevron missing q4 profit estimates, with the company's refining business posting its first loss in four years. meantime, exxon beating on eps but coming up short on revenue. these moves coming as president trump plans to put tariffs on

oil from mexico and canada starting tomorrow. what did you make of that? interesting moves here, especially exxonmobil. >> well, i thought. >> the moves. >> in the stocks. >> were very overly sensitive to the refining margins and the refining misses because exxon is the same thing. the upstream beat, first of all, the free cash flow beat in both places. and i still think that that's what you want to be most focused on along with capex. if you're an investor in the integrateds, i like the european ones even more. but i like chevron, if you'll remember. of course, it was the sea and bicep. i think. at this point, who knows. but i like it today. >> i liked. >> it last year, i like exxon. exxon has recently as march. excuse me as october was looked like it was breaking out to fresh all time highs and it's pulled back. and in fact, you can make an argument. it's done almost nothing over the last couple of years after energy really outperformed. so i think the energy names, i guess it's funny. i don't think. >> that they're really. >> the ones caught in the line of fire on the tariff. >> dynamics. >> especially companies like exxon especially, which is a global company and has a lot of their assets around the world. we'll see. i don't think that

was the. >> reaction today. >> exxon ceo said, you know, we think we'll do fine under this tariff scenario because we can produce oil more efficiently than our peers. and that's a benefit of being a large integrated. >> yeah. and i think too, when it came to chevron, what you're seeing there is there's a lot of still pressure with their hess deal. and i think there's a lot of questions there. and they're likely not going to get answers until the end of this year. so i think some of that's probably why you're seeing a little more pressure on chevron than you are exxon, because both of them have like refinery issues that i think were the biggest things that we saw there. but i think what's interesting longer term is chevron is getting in this space of producing power plants. and that was something this week that we saw everyone saying, oh, we might not need as much energy if ai is much cheaper to produce, but a lot of that demand is going to come from things like manufacturing onshoring electric vehicles, electrification of the economy. so i think a lot of that longer term is actually still a really big opportunity. >> i mean, it's such a curious space, right, because it's not a big part of the market. right. energy at three plus percent. and the 2 or 3 big stocks are half the way it kind of goes. chevron. but it's also you think of it as dull, but it's really high beta right. so it really underperforms in 1819. and

energy really outperforms in 2021. and now it's been sort of the opposite since 2022. ultimately, the yields are safe. i think we'd agree on that. and i think they belong in every portfolio to some extent. >> all right. >> so 25% tariffs. >> on our biggest. >> trading partners canada and mexico. these large integrated names, they get a lot of oil right from those two countries. they refine them here. the margins are going to be down. that was one of the reasons that these stocks sold off. and the chevron ceo on the call this morning referred to the gulf of mexico as the gulf of america. these guys are so far up. you know what? like they just got. >> to get their heads. straight a. >> little bit. >> do their. >> business, you know what i mean. and again, maybe affect the tariff conversation more so than just kind of some of the narratives in and around the new administration. >> there's a lot more fast money to come. here's what's coming up next. >> hitting the deck. shares of ugg and hoka parent deckers coming untied despite a beat and raise. why investors are running away from this running shoe maker next. plus, a new wrinkle

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>> welcome back to fast money, a buzzkill on deckers, the name behind ugg boots and hoka sneakers shares, plunging 20% after the company gave a disappointing sales outlook for the current quarter, raising guidance by less than it beat. the stock closed at a record high yesterday, but today saw its worst drop since 2012. concern that the growth is slowing. there had been so hot it was seen to be taking shares from nike and everybody in the world. everybody's wearing hokas and ons. >> and uggs. >> and look at some point you are a victim of your own success. and i just think that that's really like, if anything, what they've guided would mean comps would be negative for the first time since 2019. i mean, it's a really, really tough comp. it was an incredibly strong holiday season, to be clear, and i think there's a lot of analysts on the street right now that say this is weakness to buy that the guide was overly conservative. so that's really

the dilemma here. remember, you know, lulu when it went through that period where again, it was too good to be true. and in fact the multiple wasn't that awful. but it wasn't, you know, necessarily a sure thing on growing at the same rate. and i think that's the issue here. >> yeah. ubs said it's a buying opportunity. do the charts say that carter. >> well, so it's always that question. there's two types of weakness. in principle weakness take advantage of and weakness to stay away from. right. so i. >> know it sounds. >> so simple when. >> not it's not. >> that simple. but there. >> are. >> two choices here. >> no right i mean you think about it. and so there are two types of discounts. and i would just put it in this context. if a beautiful blazers or casual sweaters or. >> alternates and that is a. >> beautiful blazer. >> by. >> the way, not mine. and then they put it on for 700 instead of 1000. nothing's changed about the blazers sweater. that's a discount. that's weakness you want to take advantage of. that's a but discount sushi that's called rotten fish right. so you don't. >> wow. >> well so. >> this has. >> been so here was what we're dealing with. is there something wrong with this. is this a discount to take advantage of or is it weakness. stay away from in principle.

>> since you're a blazer court. >> you you you don't want to buy after a first day drop in gap when volume is eight fold, ten fold. not good technique. >> all right. so is this a blazer on sale or is this rotten fish? >> courtney i really like the analogies. carter i'm. >> really enjoying this approach. >> do you. >> think. you know, i think when it comes to a company like this, like they have always been pitted against nike, to your point, because they're taking a lot of share. but i do think you get this fragmented space, right, like athleisure was the space during covid. and now there's people, you know, we're not wearing athleisure as much, but also there's just so many more options. and i wonder just how much of that you're seeing reflected in the demand story. so yeah, i don't know if i would jump in with two feet on this one, but i don't know if it's rotten sushi either. i think it's probably somewhere in between. >> doesn't have to be right. but the question is obviously as a matter of technique, all kind of analogies. and jokes aside, it's usually better to let the dust. >> settle, right? >> yeah. really quickly. i just think that when you see a move like that from an all time high, you take out two months of performance in one gap. it just speaks to a level of complacency. and so again, i think that a bunch of names that were growth stocks are starting

to see deceleration. i think that's something we see in the midyear. >> coming up. ditching the drugs. why so many glp one users quit. and with the numbers could mean for names like eli lilly and novo nordisk right after this. >> missed a moment of fast catch us anytime on the go. follow the fast money podcast. we're back right after this. >> morning. everyone ready for the big meeting? >> i have to write this project plan. >> i just. >> need to reply to 40 emails. >> linda. >> oh. >> their day disappeared. >> too many emails. >> messages, docs. >> that's why. >> i have grammarly. >> it's ai. >> that. >> helps me. >> write. >> faster and better everywhere. it just. >> cleared. >> it for the whole company. >> it was. >> lost in the doc. >> grammarly for business enterprise ready i.

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that's not okay. it doesn't feel like that in our hearts. i mean, it's worrisome. [dog barks] today@hims.com. >> welcome back to fast money as people scramble to get their hands on glp one drugs. the first of its kind study is examining reasons why patients discontinue or re-initiate obesity drug treatment. research is finding that patients without type two diabetes are more likely to discontinue treatment, while other factors like income and drug side effects are also playing major roles. lead study author tricia rodriguez joins us now. she's a senior applied research scientist at truvada. tricia, great to have you with us. this is a fascinating study, particularly as companies are looking at ways to, i guess, keep people taking these drugs. what was interesting to me was, you know, i think that there is an assumption in the marketplace somewhat that if people saw a great weight loss, they were very successful on these drugs, that they might stop and try and just keep it off on their own.

but that's not what you found. those people are more likely to stay. >> thanks so much for having me. >> that's exactly right, melissa. we found that weight loss was associated with a lower likelihood of discontinuation. so as patients lost more weight, they were less likely to stop the drug. >> and in terms of i mean, everything is a choice, right? in life. so also income has something to do with it. and the cost. what did you find? >> yes. so we found significant relationships with income, particularly for patients with type two diabetes. and this was really interesting because what we saw is that as income bracket increased, the likelihood of stopping progressively decreased. and then the flip side of the coin, of course, is cost. and on the cost side, we see that this much higher rate of discontinuation for patients that don't have type two diabetes, we know those patients face a much higher burden of cost, because insurance is a lot more more challenging for those patients. and so both from the

income and the cost perspective, those seem to be playing a really important role in discontinuation. >> and in terms of i mean, just going back to the greater the weight loss, what were you mean? it actually, you sort of sliced it into very fine tranches in terms of how much weight loss is associated with a likelihood of discontinuation, which i thought was really fascinating. >> yeah. so we looked at the sort of time varying weight loss. and so each 1% weight loss was associated with about a 3% reduction in actually stopping the medication. >> and what is sort of the takeaway of this study overall in terms of, you know, if you're if you're eli lilly or novo nordisk and you're taking a look at this data and you're thinking, how do i get patients to stay with the drug? what are some of the high level findings that you have in terms of the patients who are more likely to stay on the drugs or patients who are what? >> right. it's a great question. so the patients who are more likely to stay on the drugs are, of course, patients that don't

experience moderate to adverse, moderate to severe adverse events. they're also likelier to be experiencing a benefit. but i think the really critical piece here is that there is a gap in access. and so the highest income patients are able to stay on this drug, while lower income patients are less likely to stay on this drug. and so i think that's a really key takeaway of this finding of this study is sort of how can we enable greater access for a greater range of patients. >> all right. tricia, great to speak with you. thank you for sharing the results of this study. really interesting. >> thank you so much. >> tricia rodriguez of truvada. and you know, that issue of access, and you wonder how much of it will be opened up as more indications are approved by the fda for taking these drugs. and then also, as there are different form factors, pills theoretically should be cheaper to manufacture, should be cheaper to buy, and will that open up the audience? >> well, right. the uncertainty about just what the competition looks like and then with the supply demand kind of picture

kind of getting a bit more in line, you need to know lilly and novo and you know, they're not too different than we talked about this last year. the megatrend of generative ai and glp one. and look at the way novo and lilly have created specifically novo over the last, i don't know, 6 to 9 months when it topped out. and those looked a lot like some of these generative ai stocks or specifically like nvidia. so i look at a novo nordisk, if you tell me that you're not going to have any major competitors in the next year or so, trading at about 22 times this year's expected earnings growth at 22%, i know they've already got it down. maybe they've de-risked in the near term, but maybe that one looks more interesting. but i think they're both really tough right here. >> yeah. i mean, just to dan's point, think about how long it's been since they've made the simple thing of a 52 week high, right? so novo peaked at the last week of june. really in the second week of july. so you have the sort of one two setup of great preceding outperformance. and then now half of year and more of underperformance. that's usually it looks like this,

right. yeah. not not great. >> i think there's also the issue that we saw with eli lilly's past two earnings releases, when they were talking about inventory and how lumpy that is, and, and how analysts are sort of trying to figure out how that is, that it can be so long that you can't figure out what the inventory is when you have a population of patients who are taking these drugs. there was an analysis by evercore isi, umer raffat, and he was saying that he believes that seasonality also plays a factor, that they're just learning so much about how these drugs are taken and how long patients stay with it. it sort of gives you an idea that maybe things are not as clear as it's a huge market, it's a huge demand for the drugs, and they're expensive and it's a buy, you know. >> so i get the lumpiness and i get the fact that the euphoria around glp is something that, you know, a lot of people, we had the ability at least to make comparisons to semiconductors. but the reality is that lilly's compound annual growth rate, at least the analyst community, says. >> it's going to be north of. >> 30% for the next five years. so is that priced in, especially when you look at the margin

profile of the company, which seems to be getting better. so some of the dynamics around the oral and some of the releases on the different phases here, i mean, i think there's going to be catalysts even within glp, but. >> people forget about. >> where lilly is in other product classes. so i think this is weakness you're buying. i can't argue with what carter's saying. i mean, and novo i mean that's that's been a that's been a stock that's hurt people who jumped in that thing, you know, late in the game. >> yeah. a buy on lilly for you or. no. >> yeah i think this is something you want to take advantage of mainly because of the supply and demand constraints, right? i mean, this is an industry that has not been able to get the supply out there to the point that you have these compounded drugs in order to compete, and those are starting to get taken off. now the supply is there. i mean, the demand is not the question here. and i think the question is, are investors going to wrap their head around that. and clearly you're seeing some of that optimism was priced in. it's getting taken off. but i think over the long run i think this is something you absolutely want to have a piece of. >> coming up, the nasdaq 100 is celebrating its 40th birthday. the index has risen by more than 17,000% since its inception. we'll dig in on the biggest changes in that time and where

the trends are going next. but first, poised for a pop. the trump master lays out a handful of names he thinks are gearing up for a breakout. that is next. more fast money right after this. >> it's not if the markets will turn, it's when at howard capital management, our proprietary. family of. >> funds. actively navigates. >> complex market. landscapes while seeking to safeguard your tomorrow. we aim to empower. >> investors. >> delivering opportunities with a tactical mathematical approach. start investing. >> with confidence today. >> contact your. financial advisor and see how howard. capital management can redefine your fund experience. >> goldilocks needs a place of her own and fast. >> thankfully. >> she's on redfin. they update their listings. >> every two minutes, and. >> with so. >> many options, she's bound to find exactly what she wants. >> this one's. >> just right. is she moving? yes. >> what's happening? >> it is. >> happening out here. >> no. >> two days are the same.

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>> welcome back to fast money. from an info tech stock to a cybersecurity company that relies on artificial intelligence, the chart master sees patterns that suggest these stocks may be on the cusp of a breakout. carter, what are you looking at? >> sure. so i thought we would as an exercise, look at some laggards. right. names that have not made 52 week highs have not broken out, that have been rangebound. and the thinking is that these are ketchup trades. so rather than chasing some of the steepest extended names, let's run through them for charts. the first is accenture of course they're an it consulting. and as annotated here, it is toying with the prospect of moving above the former high. and that's my bet. hence the green arrow. that part subjective. of course, someone else might draw a red arrow. but anyway, on to the next. and so what you see here is union pacific. it's obviously one of the biggest rails and it too has the same circumstance. it has not broken out. and the betting is that it will lagging if markets make new high and you're sideways for 6 to 8 months,

you're an underperformer. that's an opportunity or a problem. i think it's an opportunity. the third of the four, again, these are all very large. cap 100 billion plus is medtronics. this is devices. it's healthcare. and it too has not made a 52 week high as the market recently did. good relative strength this week play for the breakout. and then finally crowdstrike. also a smaller name but still 98 billion. and the presumption is because the pattern is the same that it too is going to break out. so we play the cards as dealt. do all stocks that are setting up to break out? break out? no, but that is the bet. >> which do you like dan if any. >> crowdstrike is interesting. you remember last summer when this thing got cut in half and one fell swoop? they had that obviously that data issue to me, i just think, listen the s&p it looks fine here. it's back up towards those high. we had that little shakeout here. earnings season. seems like you know it's been okay for the most part. it got off to a great start with banks and the like here. i just think at some point the s&p is likely to take a little bit of a breather here, maybe down 5 to 7% or so. so i don't love you

know, a lot of these stocks have come a long way despite the fact that they've been laggards. so i'm just not buying breakouts right here. >> unp i mean we just got numbers out of them. we are hearing about margin improvement, operational efficiency. you know there's all kinds of questions about what tariffs might mean if you're a rail. but i think this is one where the valuation and the way they're running the business gives you a reason to say, i can hang in there until ■this one does break out of that range. carter says we might be on the verge of. >> how about you, court. >> rather than picking one? i'm actually i'm going to take carter's advice. i think what you want to say is probably not all of these are going to break out. but i think this is why you do want to take advantage of the stocks that are out of favor right now, especially, you know, we've been saying this a lot to clients, but you are likely overexposed to tech. you want to start to look to take some profits, take advantage of some of these dips. so don't try to pick one of them. get diversified. i think, you know, a lot of these are really great names that carter picks out here. all right. >> coming up foreigner and wham! >> we're topping. >> the billboard charts in beverly hills cop. that was glowing at the box office. we're taking it back to 1985 and the

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for millions of families like my own. in the average household, there are dozens of connected devices. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways. >> to better odor control everywhere. >> welcome back to fast money. today marks the 40th anniversary

of the nasdaq 100. the index attracts some of the largest nonfinancial names in the nasdaq composite. at its inception, its market cap totaled $58 billion. today, it is worth over $27 trillion. only six of the original components remain in the index. apple, micron, intel, kla corp, paccar and costco. today, apple alone is worth about 60. nasdaq 100 from 1985. we're joined now by brian hartigan, invesco's global head of etfs and index investment investment. invesco manages the q-q-q, the fund that tracks the nasdaq 100. brian, great to have you with us. >> great. >> thanks for having me. and we were just talking about how it's changed so much in the 40 year period and the most remarkable change, not just the size is the concentration right. these days. >> right. >> yeah. >> it's really. >> evolved since 40. >> years ago. >> the index. >> launched 25 years ago. >> q-q-q launched. really, as i say, one of. >> the leaders of. >> the. >> etf industry. >> but you've. >> seen that concentration evolve over time. >> but what's been true is the

index. >> has always captured. >> the secular. >> themes, be it technology innovation. we talk. >> about the. >> the beginning of the internet days. into pc computing. >> into tablets. and smartphones. >> onto social media. >> and into. >> ai and the like. so the index. >> has always. >> been able to capture. >> the leaders. >> of that. >> but this year. >> you're certainly seeing much. more concentration in the top holdings. and that's been a big story. >> around the markets this year. >> hey, brian. yeah. congratulations. because you know ubiquity sometimes is a negative. you've achieved ubiquity. i mean the association of the qs to the markets is, as we were saying, like kleenex to facial tissue. so good for you and i. and i guess the rsp is outperformed this year. and so after years of i was probably saying one year ago, i don't think six stocks are going to be 30% of the s&p or 36% of the nasdaq. so just give us your thoughts on the flows there. and i'm curious now just to layer in the institutional versus retail because institutions, it's no longer an embarrassing thing as a hedge fund guy to say i'm

owning etfs. that's right. you know, and especially these etfs which give you a lot of bounce right. >> well we talk about. cuz cuz. >> is one of the most liquid vehicles in the world. >> rsp has actually. >> taken on the same institutional liquidity. >> you know it's fractions. >> of the. >> s&p and it's multiples of. >> what it used. >> to be in terms. >> of the liquidity. >> so it does bring. >> in institutional. >> investors to. do exactly what it does and diversify from that concentration risk. so equal weight the 500. you're taking away the mag seven and some of that concentration. and you're able to really, you know surgically insert kind of that allocation whether it be short term, long term or for your overall portfolio diversification. so we're seeing the institutional adoption. and again that that much more close hands on surgical precision that investors are looking for. >> brian, give the viewer a sense. like two years ago, nvidia was a $300 billion market cap company. now it's a $3 trillion market cap company. how do you guys, you know, kind of rebalance these sorts of etfs so you don't get too lopsided

towards some different some a few different names. >> sure. yeah. the nvidia stories is an amazing growth story. and the index captures that right. whether it's we have index evolutions from the midcap the next 100 into the ultimate nasdaq 100. and those rules really create some of the ceilings right for different diversification rules, minimizing some of the 5% allocations that you have. so the indexing really takes the rebalancing. the management kind of keeps buying some of those winners and gets rid of the losers very naturally through the index process. >> so do you guys have a cake in the office? like what do you do for 40. >> it's 40. yeah i'd love to celebrate a 40 again. so this was great. i really enjoyed it. we had cupcakes and we were out on the screen. it was great. >> thank you. brian. thanks for stopping by. brian hartigan of stopping by. brian hartigan of invesco. up next, final trades. it all started with a small business idea. it's a pillow with a speaker in it! that's right craig. pulling in the perfect team to get the job done. i'm just here for the internets.

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whatever goes wrong will be fixed. i just don't know when it will be fixed. historically, you're better off sitting tight than trying to trade this one. >> mad money next cnbc. >> thank you. they would have. >> done it again. >> final trade time we have. fascinating stat carter pulled up walmart and costco beat the nasdaq over the past 40 years. incredible amazing amazing okay final trade time tim. >> carter is for. >> those by the way. and he fortunately we get him all the time on this show. gd is probably another one. i bet he's done this with gold in the s&p. and it's certainly been a period where gold has had a great run making fresh new all time highs. gd to me has been underperforming that go by. >> that. >> courtney you know we started the show talking about this broadening happening. and in light of invesco being here i do think looking at the rsp which is the equal weight s&p 500 is absolutely worth taking a look at here. >> and nathan. >> i agree with that, especially when you see some of these big names kind of reverse a little bit. i thought apple's price action today was really bad. i expect maybe the meta, even though it had a good quarter to

come back into it a little bit. >> carter braxton worth of worth charting. >> i've got to go with one of those singled out earlier today. so accenture obviously some would say a low beta boring kind of name, but i think you play it for a breakup. >> all right. thank you for watching fast money. have a terrific weekend. don't go anywhere. mad money with jim cramer starts right now. >> my mission is. >> simple to. make you money. >> i'm here to level. >> the. playing field for. all investors. there's always. >> a bull market somewhere and i promise. >> to help you find it. >> mad money. >> starts now. >> hey i'm cramer, welcome to mad money. welcome to cramerica. other friends i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate. so call me at one 800 743 cnbc or tweet me jimcramer. we had two sessions today. the first one was a great. one where apple was soaring off. its better than expected quarter. nvidia stock was fighting its