now offers fda. approved weight loss injections. >> cheaper with results. >> you can see. >> faster. >> lose 15% of your weight with a formula from eli lilly. see if a formula from eli lilly. see if investment opportunities are everywhere you turn. do you charge forward? freeze in your tracks? or, let curiosity light the way. at t. rowe price, we ask smart questions about opportunities like advances in healthcare and how these innovations will create a healthier world tomorrow. better questions. better outcomes. >> all right a big flip flop on mexico. tariffs turning the market around we think and the market hopes. but the candidate issue is still a big deal. plus

president trump reportedly speaking with justin trudeau the. current prime minister of canada, a little bit later on today kelly there's a lot hanging in the balance. >> it reportedly in an hour. however, you say that in french, the s&p 500 down 606. no i'm sorry. okay okay okay. let me back up. the s&p was down more than 100 points at the lows. the dow was down 665. but the dow is down 30 points at the moment. it's basically fractionally lower more pressure across the nasdaq. we were just talking about some of the chip names there. we're also watching the dollar shooting higher today in general. dollar index hitting about 110. it still remains up these days. these charts brian always give me a headache. but there you see it versus the mexican peso. >> maybe this is a good time to go to canada or mexico on a vacation. who knows. >> all right. >> the tariffs are still stuck on canadian products like lumber and oil. but more oil stocks are higher right now. and maybe the market ends overall today higher. we're going to talk

about all of that coming up in moments. but let us start with breaking comments from the president in the oval office. minutes ago. he was, as the president tends to do, making news on a lot of topics, including signing an executive order to pave the way for the creation of the first ever united states sovereign wealth fund. listen. >> i think in. >> a short period. >> of. >> time, we'd have one of. >> the biggest funds. and. >> you know, some of some of them are pretty large. i must tell you, some. >> of the like the. >> saudi arabia fund is, is on the large side, but. eventually we'll catch it. but we're going to. >> create a lot of wealth. >> for the fund. and i. >> think it's about time. >> that this country. had a sovereign. >> wealth fund. >> and so we're going to get to megan in a second. but for those viewers and listeners that are thinking sovereign wealth fund, i know i've heard this term before, a sovereign wealth fund is effectively an investment fund that is created from the assets of the state. norway has a multi trillion dollar one. >> bingo. >> singapore, yes, called

temasek has a multi. and saudi arabia it's called pif a multi. trillion dollar fund. >> but this is an important point. and this will this will be what the market cares about. how would this one be funded. right. we don't have what is it boss. could it be funded with oil revenues. that would be. but if it's funded with something on the government side that adds to borrowing, you'll see the bond market perhaps a little bit more reactive to that. let's see if megan costello has those and more details from washington. megan, what can you tell us? >> hey guys, some questions here too, about the viability of a sovereign wealth fund. i would add, for a country that's 35 or $36 trillion in debt, so much more to watch on that front. a whole lot of headlines to bring you here. we just listened to the president talk for about 35 minutes with the pool reporters in the oval office. we were just getting that now. and the first thing i want to do is clarify what we were talking about last hour, about whether or not there's still a deal with mexico to delay these tariffs. it looks like, yes, of course, that deal is still in place. there was a question from a reporter that asked, could canada and china also be out of the tariffs if negotiations are ongoing today?

and the president responded, nobody's out of the tariffs and signaled that, of course, the next 30 days will matter greatly as to whether the tariffs will take effect a month from now or whether they'll be postponed further or perhaps indefinitely. but he went on to say that he had a great talk with mexico, and he said that over the next 30 days, scott bessent, howard lutnick and marco rubio, three of his top secretaries, will be leading a delegation to have to continue negotiations with mexico and that trump and his counterpart, mexican president claudia sheinbaum, will be part of that as well. then he went on, he talked about about canada and said canadian prime minister justin trudeau, they had a good conversation today, but he has some qualms there, including whether u.s. banks can operate in canada. he also is worried about canada not taking u.s. agricultural products. it is true that the dairy market is very protected up there in canada, he says. you know, we don't need canada for energy, lumber or cars. but he emphasized several times, they do have another call today at 3 p.m. so much more to watch that very consequential call on whether canada might be able to get a deferral the way we've

seen with mexico. he also talked about china. we haven't seen them talking with chinese officials yet today. but he says probably over the next 24 hours he'll be speaking with china. and he did say it was just an opening salvo. these 10% tariffs he's been talking about there and saying if they can't make a deal then the tariffs will be very, very substantial, potentially moving higher then 10%. and then we heard him talking about the european union again once again threatening tariffs on the e.u, saying there's massive deficits there that they don't take our cars or our agriculture, which is true, again, a very protected agricultural market in the european union wanting to potentially go after that with some tariffs to try to make it more balanced. and then on the sovereign wealth fund, i would just add to that there was a tiktok element to this, that he was saying that that sovereign wealth fund could potentially be used, maybe to purchase tick tock, tick tock could be part of the fund, he said. maybe we'll get a deal or maybe not. and that we also on tick tock could do a partnership with, quote, very wealthy people. and i will note for you guys that larry

ellison, co-founder of oracle, was in the room for this conversation there as well. so something to watch as we continue to wait and see what's going on with tick tock guys. >> that's interesting. larry. >> there's a. lot there. yeah. >> megan. thanks. appreciate it. megan costello. >> you also wonder what the relationship is between howard lutnick and scott. bessent in treasury and commerce. just kind of we're going to go to steve liesman in a second just to kind. of recap what. we heard there at the top, the sovereign wealth fund. i want everyone out there listening and watching to understand what we're talking about. and correct me if i'm wrong. >> well, let's see what we're talking about. >> i actually don't know the details. i'm going to make it up. >> but what. >> we know about sovereign wealth funds is this to kelly's point, you sell or you. >> sell. >> something, you raise money. and with those that money, you buy stuff and then you hopefully make. >> money investments. >> for the citizens. >> so if you have a lot of oil, look what alaska has done, something similar. you know, there are some u.s. states who have kind of tried to look at this model already, and it's a good idea, especially with

something problematic like fossil fuels. you can give people revenue while you work on that transition. this is something they've been doing, and the wealth built in the meantime can then go to a bevy of projects, which also raises. questions of sovereign wealth. >> you know, you got me on the alaska, i knew it i mean, i knew i knew kelly evans, folks, the alaska. you're exactly right. alaska is the perfect example. they take money from oil and they they they invest and they write a. check to the people every year. if you live in alaska, you actually get a check. all right. your money is moving with every tweet or post or utterance from president trump about tariffs and more. and i want to be very clear. there's much we don't know. but what we do know is what this morning looked like. a stock market disaster has mostly turned around. theoretically, it's because mexico's president reportedly will send about 10,000 troops to the us border to try to help with the flow of immigration and fentanyl. but trump, implying that there might be no deal at least yet with mexico. so, steve liesman, we don't know a lot. we know some.

and every time you're on tv, i feel like there's a breaking headline. >> yeah. >> which adds to the story. so i'm just going to leave it there. >> for you. i don't have we have some breaking data from our survey. of course we do. but whether or not there's breaking news, we'll just leave that up to the fates. short term tariffs that are part of a negotiations likely have modest effects. economically long term tariffs. they can have much more far reaching impacts on business inflation and jobs. that's not news. what might be news for the moment, the 27 respondents to a cnbc fed survey over the weekend finds most expect tariffs to be a short term affair. in fact, 44% say they'll be around for less than three months, 26% say 3 to 6 months. so add those two together. somebody check my math. 70% believe it will be six months or shorter. there is a contingent that says, well, it might be around a little bit longer, but that right now is a small contingent with a chunky contingent. they're emphasizing the uncertainty that brian was emphasizing of just 15% saying

they do not know. every one of our forecasters in the flash survey predicted lower gdp in 2025. oh, sorry. except for one, we got a late answer with an average of -0.6 for gdp and plus 4% on cpi, with expected prices to rise about 0.4% above what they otherwise would. drew madison metlife writes any tariff impact is acutely sensitive to the magnitude and duration. mark zandi writes, in this trade war is a lose lose for the us and global economies. the only question is how big a loss it will be. cnbc asked the white house if there had been an economic analysis of the tariff impacts. they responded the focus was on fentanyl deaths and they don't put a price on that. they send a background sheet with no numbers. but it said in part, quote, tariff strength of the american economy, raise wages and create jobs. they bring back manufacturing to the us and reduce trade deficits. well, all of that suggests the effects of longer term tariffs. but the white house is emphasizing today this is a drug

war, not a trade war. and a drug war you think is more temporary. so i don't have breaking news, but i do have breaking confusion, perhaps. >> well. >> if that's if that's a phenomenon. >> it today it is. here's what i would say though, is that there is a free trade act between the us, canada and mexico. trump himself, usmca. >> right. >> that's it. yeah. i don't know if that was a beastie boy, but yes, mca, but it is out there and trump himself signed it. what i'm what. >> i'm reading. >> and again, this could be just. garbage is that if you frame it as a drug war, you can you can implement the national security aspects that go. around the trade war restrictions. >> you mean the 1970s era law they're using to actually declare these tariffs? yes. >> there have been, which would circumvent or support. >> the usmca. >> the usmca, that if you if you claim it's a drug war and about drug deaths, you go around the clauses in the 2017 free trade

act, which suggests no tariffs may be implemented. >> it's a very important point, especially if this gets challenged. again. >> let's not trade chairs, but let's trade positions for a second. oh, what's happening with western canadian select. crude crude. i'll tell you why i asked this question. >> well you asked me yesterday. >> i asked you yesterday i called you at home. >> we both of us. >> worked all day. >> i said, brian, what's with wcs? and the reason he actually did is because there may be no greater ability to gauge the impact. there's wti up a little bit and i want to get to my comments on this in a second. but i want to get your info. is it up higher today. >> it's about up the same and western canadian. >> six five. >> well i don't want to say exactly the same, but i will say this western canadian select is far less liquid. see what i did there? it's heavier, literally and figuratively then the wti contract. so we are waiting to see a significant price moves on that canadian oil contract. the wcs western canadian select. but as i will go back to you like a song or a bad movie, steve

length is important because. >> the length of the of you're talking about. >> you can watch a bad movie for 90 minutes, but after hour three maybe you can't. and that's my tariffs are kind of the same way we if we if we're talking about them tomorrow that's a different the ending tomorrow. that's one thing. if in three months we're still talking about them, then we're going to start to see the impact of much higher oil prices, much higher gas prices, particularly to all my friends watching on the upper peninsula of michigan. you're going to pay a lot more. >> so. so i hope when they show this part of the daily show, they edit me out of it. are you talking about length being important? but here's the thing i when they when they put this tariff in place, you would expect there to be a quick move. but here's the thing. canada is landlocked in the sense that it has no other place except for. let's go to talk about vancouver in a second. leave that to the side. no other place to send their oil. we're almost a monopsony buyer. we have a monopoly on buying their

product. >> we get it at a discount. >> right when they add the 10%. brian, does that make it more profitable to ship it someplace else? no. so it still landlocked? we still have a deal. >> in fact, it. >> would be less profitable because to get so let's say what steve's talking about i think is what i would call the nuclear option. i talked about this earlier, which is that let's say canada gets so mad. >> at us, they say, you know what? >> screw you, united states, we're going to reroute, divert our oil right from alberta. that was going from alberta to illinois. ohio, because 61% of our oil imports come from. >> canada, but they do have most to get it out. >> they do right in vancouver. >> right. >> but to get that amount of oil, first. >> off, you can't get three, 4 million barrels a day over that way. but you could do some. >> but i think. >> it would be. >> more expensive and thus you'd make less money. but at this. >> point we know that. >> canada. which today said, oh, we might tariff starlink. of elon musk. amazingly, after musk, for some reason and other things, maybe they'd be willing to do that nuclear option. >> so when it comes to oil, president trump is still sort of

beating up on a weakling in the sense that at some point, the 25% tariff broadly says, okay, i can ship this anywhere, but the 10% you're saying is not enough to say. and also the infrastructure that we're not going to still get a good deal on canadian oil coming down. >> it's a 25 cent increase in the price of a gallon of. gasoline for the refineries that are impacted, which. >> is illinois, ohio. >> minnesota, saint paul park outside of detroit and probably pacific northwest. that would take gasoline prices back to mid-august level. so, yes, gas prices would go up, but. >> they would only go. up to. >> the back to where they were in august. but the president promised lower prices, lower inflation. so any up is a bad up. >> do you think they got spooked this morning by the market reaction? that's why they made the deal with mexico. >> i mean i didn't think the market reaction, you know 1.5% on the dow. >> do you know what i did? i went back and looked at 2008. remember 2008. >> the financial crisis. >> sure. but you remember how much it took for the republicans

to change their mind about tarp. >> the day they voted it down? how much? >> and then they. >> changed their mind. >> 7%. >> wow, wow wow. >> so it took a big number. this was not i agree. >> with you. >> i agree. >> sierra changed the whole thing. i was the anchor. you were thinking, well when. >> they when they. >> put this. >> in front of the canadian john stewart, i hope they edit me out. i don't know. >> how. >> to say. >> that in french, steve. >> thank you, thank you. appreciate it. steve liesman. let's get some more insight now from our panel. carlos gutierrez is the former commerce secretary and the former kellogg ceo. derek mcneil is managing director and senior policy analyst at longview global. both are cnbc contributors. secretary gutierrez, let me just start with you. where is mexico now? a winner here because they've resolved this issue. whereas canada and china as of now are facing tariffs. >> yeah, i think the circumstances are different. >> you know in. >> these things. >> the technicalities. are important. but the relationship. >> is just as important. >> president trump and president sheinbaum. >> have spoken in the past a couple of times before this morning. >> and there's. >> been a good relationship. >> it's been cooperative. they

both connected. >> so the fact that president sheinbaum agreed. >> to. >> sending 10,000. >> troops to the border. >> is a. >> big concession. >> that, you know, military. >> matters with the us are very sensitive. >> in mexico. she used political capital to do that. but but she made the decision. i think the relationship had a lot. >> to do. >> with it. >> canada is a very different story. president, prime minister. >> joe has. >> been combative. >> it's been. >> a. difficult relationship. >> my concern. >> is that he. >> has. >> boxed himself into a corner to the point. where if he. shows willingness. >> to cooperate, it'll look. like he's backing down. >> that's a. >> problem. it's less clear what the canadians can do to quickly assuage. do they send 10,000 troops to the border? >> yeah. i think secretary gutierrez is right here. the brilliance of this call with sheinbaum first is that in some ways it does. box in canada. >> but remember. >> kelly, there's still the chinese side here. and there's this. case at the wto. so in

theory canada could sign on to that wto case. now again. >> trump is. >> going to ignore the wto. but it does send a strong signal for china and perhaps canada, if they sign on to the european union, who loves following trade. >> rules. >> who understand that. >> what we're looking for. >> are rational actors. >> and. >> so. >> you can still play. >> the rational actor game in this process. but. you know, i. >> do. >> think that. >> the sheinbaum. >> call really put. canada in a bind here early in. >> this process. but this is the long game. >> kelly and countries are going to have to play chess in. >> order to win this. >> they will do. rick, i want to go back to you because we're showing our viewers. and if you're listening on your car, i'm sorry, you can't see anything, but the dow is now positive. it's positive by 0.01%, basically 11. but it is positive. so the market either toward rick is blowing off the news or it believes these tariffs maybe the china tariffs by the way layering on top of

tariffs president biden put on nine months ago. i should point that out that these tariffs are short lived. what is your take on the markets. >> yeah. look. >> i've been. >> very shocked. >> by this. >> i saw the. >> study that steve released from from our network here. >> and what they're not. >> talking about. >> is how long will. >> the threat. >> of terrorists lie. so these may. >> be short term tariff. >> events, but the threat. >> when you look at. >> pattern recognition. >> we're going. >> to live with these threats of tariffs. for the rest of the trump administration. >> and at some point you run out of deal space, brian. so, you know, it may. >> not be today. >> but i. do think markets. >> should take this more seriously. >> than than they're taking it. with respect to china, this was never. >> the big one. >> china is waiting for the. >> america first. >> trade policy. >> tariffs that may. come into effect. >> after april 1st. >> so i. >> think the chinese. >> going back to pattern recognition here, they're. >> going to keep. >> their. >> powder dry. they know april 1st there may be something bigger coming down the pipe. >> carlos, what would you add to

that. >> well, i would. >> just say with china. >> i think. >> the goal has shifted. i believe the president wants to. make a bigger deal. >> with china, a. >> grand bargain. and that's why the 10% is almost symbolic. but it's. >> bigger than just tariffs. and trade. >> it includes most. >> of the issues that we have. >> together as two countries. >> and potentially could be something that really moves. >> the relationship forward. so it could include. technology obviously trade. >> but expand that. >> it could. >> include taiwan. >> it could. >> include china's involvement in latin america. >> it is a. >> bigger objective, a. bigger strategic. >> initiative than just a. >> trade fight. well, what is it then, carlos? what what do you think is. i know you have to guess. no one knows what's inside his mind. maybe. but him. what is. what is the strategic goal of all this? well, if. >> you're president trump, you

look at what are the issues with china. we have these issues in the south china sea. >> continued military engagement, escalation. >> we have. >> china coming. into latin america, panama, peru. there are a lot of. instances where china. >> is challenging. >> u.s. interests. >> and i think. >> the president. >> would like to solve that, not just the trade issue. >> so, you know. >> you name it. >> you make it as big. >> as you'd like. but i think. >> the president is thinking bigger. than just. >> today's tariffs. >> that's very interesting. and whether that makes it easier or harder to solve i guess time will tell. gentlemen. for now. thanks. carlos gutierrez and derek mcneil. >> all right. we are just getting started and. on deck. will the canada tariff cost you gas money? well, as we said earlier, it may depend on where you live. we'll explain more you live. we'll explain more with energy coming up.

♪ empower ♪ so handsome. oh, i can't buy this. woah, woah. your empower investment account has grown. you earned it, so... (♪♪) get good at money. so you can be a little bad. empower. (grandpa) i'm the richest guy in the world. (man 1) i have time to give. (man 2) i have people i can count on. (grandma) and a million stories to share. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts. >> i guess i'm. >> not the easiest. >> person to please. >> i like things. >> just right. >> oh. >> that's why i love redfin's home recommendations. they know what i want even before i do a home. that's just right. >> yes. >> yes. >> i had eight utis. >> in one year.

>> this inspired me and my partner spencer to launch yakura. yakura makes effective urinary tract health products. >> it truly works miracles. >> the peace. >> of. mind i've been looking for. >> go to quora.com to learn more. >> today, the top 100 public companies ranked on issues of workplace, ethical leadership and environmental responsibility. america's most just companies revealed who's in the top spot. special reports all day cnbc experience the power of cnbc pro. track your portfolio from every angle on one optimized platform. become a smarter investor with the power of cnbc

the way i approach work post fatherhood, has really trying to understand the generation that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families like my own. in the average household, there are dozens of connected devices. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways. first. >> time consignors get $100 extra. >> terms apply. >> all right. welcome back.

certainly the tariffs on canadian oil. >> are a big deal. >> but it's even. >> a bigger deal. >> depending on where you might live. all right. so here you go. the us imports about 4 million barrels of. canadian oil per day. most of that is going to refineries in. >> the midwest. >> illinois, ohio. >> minnesota, michigan. >> some states that rely on crude oil from canada. the companies marathon petroleum, valero, phillips 66, exxonmobil. >> and canadian. >> company cenovus are just some of the names that have exposure or the most exposure to oil from canada, and a potential impact from higher costs. now, canadian oil is what we would call heavier. >> than us oil. >> it requires a slightly different refining technique. it's sludgy, and while oil isn't moving much today, there are some who suggest that if the tariffs go on for a few weeks or longer, we could see an impact on canadian oil flows to the us and possibly higher gasoline prices. for you, especially all of my friends and listeners and

viewers that live in the rocky mountain states or the midwest. >> you may. >> be right. >> sort of in that target. >> let's talk about more of it with. american petroleum institute ceo michael summers and lipow oil associates president andy lipow. mike, i'm going to start with you. you represent the industry. it's a weird spot to be in because there are different relationships with canada and its oil. what is your message or the message of the american oil industry right now? >> well, let's put this into perspective. the united states produces about 13.4 million barrels of oil a day, but we consume. >> about. >> 20 million barrels of oil every single day. so we do depend on exports into the united states, particularly from canada. you mentioned it padd two. >> into the midwest. >> about 75% of the oil refined in the midwest is from canada. and so we've worked very hard with the trump administration so that they understand how important those exports into the united states are, and we thank them for that recognition.

lowering the tariff from the potential 25% to 10%. but we're going to continue to work with them and hopefully carve out more exclusions for the oil and gas industry. >> so you think that back to you very quickly, that the reduction from 25% to 10% was partly the work of you api. >> and maybe the american. >> oil industry to convince the white house, hey, go after tariffs if you want, but this. >> is something that. >> we actually use more of than they do. well. >> one of the most important components of this is that american refiners buy that oil from canada at a discount. in most cases, it's about a 20% discount. so if you were to put a 25% tariff on that canadian oil, you're basically eliminating the incentive for us to process that oil in american refineries. so it was very. important to us that we carved out this exclusion for american oil and gas, and we're going to continue to work with them to get. >> it. >> down to zero. >> andy, what should consumers

expect? are we going to see prices at the pump go up? >> well, of course it depends on where you live. now, if you're in maine down to boston, you should be ready to see a 20 cent per gallon increase in gasoline prices as irving. >> oil. >> the major refiner and supplier in that region, is already notified their customers that they're passing. through every bit of the tariff to them. if you're in a place like the rockies, and especially a state like montana, where those four refineries do depend on canadian production, you could see canadian producers try to divert some of that oil to the pacific markets as their pipeline space available. and if you were to run short of crude oil, especially in a state like montana, you could see prices increase, their. >> 20 cent increase. andy, that it's kind of a big deal. although someone said that prices were higher just as recently as the summer. is that right? where does that take us back to? >> well, it does take us back to

the summertime. and right now we are trading winter grade gasoline. so in a couple of months we're going to see gasoline prices increase another $0.20 a gallon just from the switch between the winter and the summer. >> so basically we could see gasoline prices $0.40 higher by by the summer of this coming year or no. is that putting it too sharply? >> no, i think that's exactly right. especially if the tariffs stay in place. and while we haven't talked much about tariffs on mexico, which had been at the 25% level, the united states is still importing about 500,000 barrels a day of crude oil from them and a couple of hundred thousand barrels a day more of refined products. and that's where it starts, affecting refining on the gulf coast and the east coast. >> what would be the. >> message, >> mike, a lot of our canadian friends might be watching this right now. you represent the us oil and gas industry. what would be our message as americans to our good friends? many of them

are watching or listening right now north of the border. well. >> canada continues to be a major trading partner to the united states, and we want to continue to. import that kind of oil into the united states, because the truth is, is that these refineries in the midwest and in other parts of the united states can't refine. >> the oil. >> that. is actually. >> produced here in the united states. >> it is. >> that heavier. sour. >> oil that we find that we need to continue to import to keep prices low for american consumers. so we want. >> to. >> keep working with them on this. we're working with the trump administration. again. we appreciate the important recognition that they put forward. >> to reduce. >> that tariff from 25 to 10. but long term, we need. >> to be able. >> to produce and process the kind of oil that we find here, wti here in the united states. but the way we do that is we have to get. >> permitting reform. >> done through the united states congress. so we can actually build something here. we haven't built a large scale refinery here in america since 1977, which is. >> one. >> of the reasons why we're dealing right now with the

situation where we are still processing this heavier crude that we get from canada. >> hard to believe the last refinery built in america was when i was six. and kelly was just a thought. wow. here's a here's here's a wall graphic that we have. and there's a lot going on in this graphic. and that's the point okay. and what this graphic is going to show. and if you're on the radio it's basically a blue line which is canadian oil imports soaring over the last 20 years, and a mish mash of spaghetti of a bunch of other stuff. nigeria, venezuela, saudi arabia, iraq, all kind of remaining steady or going down. the idea, mike, that we need to import about 6 to 8 million barrels. and andy chime in as well. mike, we need to import that many millions of barrels of oil a day, because it's not just where or what kind of oil it is, correct. it's where it goes. if you're shipping something to houston that's very, very different than needing the oil in saint, you know, saint louis park, minnesota, is it not? and in getting there is actually less

environmental and more dangerous if it has to go by, say, barge then maybe rail or pipeline. well. >> that's exactly right. >> and this interdependent. >> relationship that we have with canada continues to be very important. and we want to continue to work with canada on bringing that oil into the united states. but remember, there's not a lot of other places where that oil has to go. so we want to continue that important relationship and continue to work with canada, not. >> just. >> on oil, by the way, but on natural gas as well, which was also subject to only a 10% tariff rather than a 25% tariff. we need that natural gas also, particularly for the northeast. >> and the. >> pacific northwest. >> we're going to leave it there. but mike and andy, invaluable insight go the whole hour. but then i'd be fired and we'd never do it again. so andy and mike really appreciate both of your time. thank you very much. thank you. thank you. >> well. >> the tricky thing about any trade war, as we talked about earlier, is the timing. you'd hope to have the growth stocks holding everything up, but they've had their own problems lately. while tariffs mean higher prices, near-term inflation that could affect the

fed's plan. we'll talk about it fed's plan. we'll talk about it next on power lunch. gold bond believes touch says everything. it says... i see you. i feel you. and...i know you. gold bond. get in touch with irresistibly touchable skin. your traditional cpas head explode? >> help yourself. >> it's time for an. >> accounting team. >> that gets your business. >> we're making sense of modern. >> day. >> accounting, one acronym at. >> a time. >> xandu, the official. bookkeeping and accounting. >> for e-commerce business. >> i find. it challenging to. >> come up. >> with a gift that's really impactful, but something that really makes a difference.

>> joe lee. >> has been a tremendous gift. >> it's something that has not. >> only looks beautiful, but >> only looks beautiful, but makes us feel amazing a with gold and copper prices pushing towards all time highs, us gold corp. offers investors leverage to both gold and copper at its project, and mining friendly wyoming. u.s. gold corp has a reserve of almost 1.5 million ounces of gold equivalence, permits to mine, zero debt. nasdaq listed with only 12.3 million shares outstanding and a portfolio of world class american strategic metals assets. 2024. can it keep u.s. gold corp. join the golden age. up the momentum? latest on i strategy john forge morgan bren dave's been very excited about saving big with the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. five years? -five years. and he's not alone. -high five. it's five years of reliable gig speed internet.

five years of advanced securit. five years of a great rate that won't change. it's back. but only for a limited time. high five. five years? -nope. comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. powering five years of savings. powering possibilities. comcast business. details. >> physicians mutual, physicians mutual. >> welcome back to power lunch. >> i'm courtney reagan with.

>> your. cnbc news update. >> president trump appointed treasury secretary scott bessent as the acting director of the consumer financial protection. bureau after firing former head rohit chopra. over the weekend. >> the washington post reports. >> that bessent sent an email to agency. staff ordering them to cease all work pending a review, citing a. >> need to, quote. >> promote consistency with the goals of the new administration. philadelphia officials say 24 people on the. >> ground were hurt. >> after a medical. >> jet crashed. >> friday night. >> shortly after takeoff. >> the six people. >> on board were killed. the investigation. >> into the crash. >> is ongoing. >> transportation secretary sean duffy. says federal agencies will look at whether. >> as a possible factor. >> as well as potential technical or mechanical issues. and homeland security director kristi noem visited new. >> orleans today. >> ahead of. >> sunday's super bowl game between the philadelphia eagles and the kansas city chiefs. she says there are no known threats to the game. security in new orleans is heightened following last month's. terrorist attack on the city's iconic bourbon street. kelly, back. >> over. >> to you. courtney, thank you very much. courtney. reagan. well, a hot and cold trade war is creating some lukewarm market

reaction. we had a big sell off this morning after the president's tariff announcements, only to do a u-turn when good news emerged out of mexico about mid morning, about 10:30 a.m, we were down 665 on the dow. then we went positive. we're down three. the tariffs on canada and china are still scheduled to take effect tomorrow, but the president will be speaking again with canada's prime minister, justin trudeau, in a couple of minutes time. and regardless of what comes out of that discussion, my next guest says the damage has already been done because fear is now trickling down the supply chain. joining us now is brian jacobsen, the chief economist at anex wealth management. and brian, this is what we're trying to figure out because i have people arguing to me that the market reaction today tells you in some ways, even at the worst of it, that the markets are becoming inured to tariff talk. and then i have other people saying, well, no, now this back and forth means they have to kind of constantly deal with the threat. which one is it? >> well, it's probably somewhere in between, right? i mean, that's typically the way that the truth works out. and i think

that actually the market might be a little inured to this, as you put it so eloquently. i don't pronounce that quite as well as what you do. but until it. >> shows up in the data. >> right. until it. >> shows up in the. profit margins. and i think. >> that's one of my big concerns here, is. >> that it's. >> a bit of a catch 22 for investors because with the fear of tariffs. knowing that they could be imposed at any time for any particular reason, what does that do to margins or inflation now? margins are elevated across the board. if you're looking at the s&p 500, especially with the biggest names out there, but when you dig beneath the surface, margins aren't. particularly high, say. >> for consumer staples. >> or for consumer discretionary. if you exclude amazon and so. >> are they going. >> to be able to pass on those price increases, in which case the fed is likely. going to stay on pause for a while? that's not great for financing rates, especially for smaller cap stocks. or is it going to show

up in compressed profit margins and show up in the earnings numbers, which also isn't great for investors, right. >> and it's not great for small caps. so i thought it was really interesting that the lows this morning, the small caps were way underperforming. so the dow was down about 1.5%. the russell 2000 was down 2.5%. and the line brian has kind of been oh you want to go with small caps. they don't have the pressure from the strong dollar. they're not as global. they don't have to worry about the tariff exposure. but if this all comes down to the fed might be a little less likely to cut rates. well then they have that problem all over again. you know, when profit margins aren't as strong. would they have that problem all over again? >> yeah, that's the way that i'm looking at things here is, you know, i do like mid caps for the long term small caps. you have the issue as far as the number of names that are profitable now or profitable in the future. but if we look back at 2018 to 2019, the part of the market that did the best during the trade war back then was large cap growth. it was the tech names you had actually those areas outperforming despite their global presence. now, most of that could be attributable to

the fact that they actually got exclusions from those tariffs. right. so the tariffs it was a smaller base $300 billion versus now it's like 1.4 trillion. as far as the base the rate was lower. it was phased in. but plus you had companies like apple and many others that were able to get exclusions from the tariffs. this time maybe it'll be a little bit different, but i suspect that they're already probably lobbying for some exclusions if actual tariffs do go into place. so maybe large cap growth is a slightly better way to play this. >> it's amazing. brian, last week all we were talking about was deep sea and nvidia. and i mean last week was so last week ago. and now of course we're talking about tariffs. what is an investor to do. it's a frustrating very busy time. aside from listen to you and watch and listen to cnbc. how do we process this insane flow of information that's coming out in the last couple of days? >> well, i like the fact that you used the word process as far as how do we process the information. it's about what is your investment process? stick

to it. right. the way that we're looking at things here at annex is focus on the fundamentals. near term. there is that greater uncertainty about the outlook for the fundamentals. but what's the longer term because we will ride through this eventually. right. it might result in slightly higher prices, lower purchasing power for consumers in the near term. but really if you map this out over the course of, say, 3 to 5 years, what does that do to your forecasts for those types of earnings? it might not move the needle all that much. so focus on the fundamentals. look for the valuations. considering that margins are likely going to come under some pressure, growth expectations might need to come down to earth a little bit. and so where is that margin of safety safety. so really sticking to that process i think is the best way to kind of process your way through this. >> and we'll see if names like apple, which should theoretically have it, can kind of shake it off and not, you know, have those supply chain. because i was like, i didn't mean to make a taylor swift. >> i would say that was quick, but i would actually i was going

to say it was very swift of you. >> thank you, brian. thank you as well. brian jacobson joining us today. >> all right. so we talked about it a little bit earlier. the dollar can be confusing. but let's just say this. the us dollar has been getting stronger the last couple of days. really a fuze lit by trump's trade war. we're going to break down and more importantly make sense of all this currency stuff that's going on. stick around. >> crypto watch is sponsored by crypto.com. crypto.com. crypto.com is america's it all started with a small business idea. it's a pillow with a speaker in it! that's right craig. pulling in the perfect team to get the job done. i'm just here for the internets. at&t, it's super-fast! you locked us out?! and when thrown a curveball... arrggghh! ahhhh! [crashing sounds] we had everything we needed.

is the internet out? don't worry, we have at&t internet back-up. the next level network for small business. ♪♪ i sold a pillow! no. >> no, no, thank you. >> i ran the numbers on quicken. it's totally in my budget. bad. mr. sparkles. >> someone's birthday money, investments. >> quicken tracks all my income and spending and even built me a personalized budget so it's easier to save more. >> this is amazing. >> i know it is. yeah. >> i know it is. yeah. >> do more with your it's a smart move to get a second opinion. you do it when you're looking for a contractor. you definitely do it with medical advice. so why not with your stock market investments? we can help you see opportunities you may be missing. at hennion & walsh it only takes a second

to schedule your free second opinion. so what's there to lose? speak to hennion & walsh. the second opinion people. to even out your complexion, i have a secret for you. traditional foundation can be thick and cakey and actually make your skin look worse. that's why i created what the foundation. to me, it's what a foundation should be. it's a hybrid product that blends foundation and moisturizer. it melts seamlessly into your skin and just gives you a glow. it's the ultimate you but better foundation. learn more at jones road, beauty.com. >> 16 million americans suffer from chronic back pain, the sixth most costly health condition in the us. meet creative medical. technology stock symbol sells on the nasdaq. creators of. stem spine, a regenerative medicine using stem cells to help fix the

multibillion dollar chronic. >> back pain problem. >> stem spine was shown to be 87% effective at improving mobility and reducing chronic back pain, and that could be worth a fortune. creative medical technology stock symbol sells experience. the power of cnbc pro. all new investing tools securely linked to your brokerage accounts. become a smarter investor with the power of cnbc pro. go to cnbc.com slash get pro now. >> welcome back to power lunch. plenty to discuss with rick santelli today. watching yields in particular as we're seeing the ten year kind of flat. but the two year is pricing in some near term inflation that i guess that's kind of it's not inverting the curve rick. but it's moving in that direction. let's bring in mr. santelli for more. what do you make of it. >> well i'm not sure i jump to the inflation notion. i would just jump to the central banking notion. central bank already has an inflation problem. but what i

see is the twos ten spread has flattened about 6 or 7 basis points today. and early in the session we saw that two year yields were slightly elevated. and ten, 20, 30 year yields the longer ones weren't elevated at all. that relationship has changed somewhat, but the spread hasn't changed. so we see that two year yields have gone even higher and ten year yields have gone higher. they're virtually unchanged now on a ten year up about 6 or 7 basis points in a two year. why am i going through all that? because we don't really know why. but the fact that the spread hasn't changed tells me that the short maturities are thinking more about how the central bank has to deal with these issues. and the long end is a little nervous about how it could affect the economy. okay. and maybe there's a little inflation on the back end as well. but it puts the priorities. the spread has moved. so the burden of inflation and central banking is on a short maturity. and i think

that's not going to change. but what i find fascinating. and after the dust settled and mexico capitulated to some extent the spread hasn't changed, but yields have moved higher. >> so we're making a lot potentially, rick, of a few basis points here and there, but it's a big story in currencies and this one has huge implications. the dollar is near the strongest levels we've had in basically 30 or 40 years. you know you get to i don't know what the high was 110 112 we're getting in that neighborhood and we're talking about, you know, the fallout that's had on the economy these past several decades. so we have that to contend with. maybe it helps consumers absorb the tariff hit, but could be a headwind for certainly corporate america. maybe some manufacturers. >> well. >> you know, a couple of things. you know, take a step back. the dollar has been doing very well for a long, long time. long before it was assured trump would even be in the white house now. but of course, some of that has had an effect to the upside of the dollar as well. but here's what i see. okay, when it comes to foreign exchange and tariffs, think about it this

way. the country imposing the tariffs most likely sees their currency appreciate the aim. they're the target of the tariffs most likely in a macro sense sees their currency go down a bit. but the issue is so much more complicated. in canada's case, the currency is already at a 22 year low versus the greenback. in the case of the mexican peso, virtually the change, the relationship between our currency and theirs is about where it was before all the volatility with covid. and if you look at what the mexican peso did today, the minute the capitulation occurred, we saw the dollar go down. very much a predictable event when it comes to something like china, it gets much more confusing. you have the offshore dollar versus the yuan. the yuan is lower if you have the onshore, which the government really, of course, has more control of the yuan tire. that tells me that the currency has a lot of issues outside of what's going on here, tied up in politics and central banking figures in if your

country's currency is weakening and you're an export economy, of course that's going to give you potential upside on exports. think japan keeping their yen weak on purpose intentionally. but let's say you need to buy inputs. let's say you don't have domestic resources and you're in manufacturing and exporting. then you have to go outside the country. your currency is weaker. your import costs may go up, fueling some inflation and slowing of your economy. and central banks. central banks have to deal with the aftermath of this. and what it will be is anybody's guess. >> yeah. i mean, we have the resources though, and i guess we're going to go travel and make the most of it. rick. >> thank you. >> and you know, one thing we have to say, kelly, real quick. you're right, though, it's not good for multinational companies, but it's great if you're sitting home in your lounge chair because your dollar is going to go way farther. with all the countries sending things here that they're exporting. >> rick, thank you very much. appreciate it. rick santelli. >> all right. on deck trading

the trade war. the stocks you may actually want to buy. >> the bond report is brought to you by pimco, a global leader in active fixed income. in a world of uncertainty and. >> disruption, how will your investments stay resilient? >> we've been navigating. >> change for 125 years, always looking forward, anticipating. >> risks and. >> trusted to manage over. $1 trillion in assets worldwide. solving for the needs of investors. >> today and tomorrow. that's the. power of nuveen. >> don't. >> want to lose 15 to 20% of your weight in a year? >> try rose. >> insurance checker to see if you're covered for. >> glp one for free. just submit your insurance card. >> and we'll take care. >> of the rest.

>> go to rocco. >> insurance for your free insurance check. people everywhere are losing weight with lifemd. >> and i'm. >> keeping it off. >> with the lifemd. maintenance program. >> our approach is simple we pair weekly shots with world class providers and. a maintenance program for lasting success. lose up to 20% of your weight and keep it off with lifemd. get started today and see your eligibility for a copay as low as $0 at lifemd.com/tv. >> earning season on cnbc takes you inside the numbers. and when the ceos have a big announcement, they come here first. >> a wild hour of earnings. >> a wild hour of earnings. >> earnings,

the great barrier reef. huh? here we are. oooh. — g'day. — uh, where am i? australia! and you look like you need a vacation. show us what ya got. (♪♪) remarkable. yep! it's amazing. i love it! — what is it? — a wombat. come on! (♪♪) jump! down under, g'day is the start of every good adventure. so, what are you waiting for? come and say g'day. (♪♪) i don't ever see anyone coming out to maintenance anything, so it's very scary for me because i have everything i love in this home. so, we've now implemented drone technology. how is that safe for me? it enhances the inspection, so it allows us to see things faster. your safety is the most important, and if you're feeling unsafe, that's not okay. it doesn't feel like that in our hearts. i mean, it's worrisome. [dog barks]

something that we get to use every day. >> all right, welcome back. it is time for three stock lunch. we asked our trader for three names that you might want to look at as a potential buy right now. because, you know, these tariffs on canada and china and maybe mexico taking effect or not. let's talk about all these companies with larry wall. he is the head of technical analysis at oppenheimer. all right ari, ari, the first name is crowdstrike. however you pronounce it, the stock has rebounded strongly from its outage over the summer, jumping more than 80% in that time. what is your take on crowdstrike? >> all right. well, my mom. >> will say ari. so half my friends call me ari. but listen, brian, our 2025 outlook, it's balanced. >> by our. >> belief that. >> following two. >> above average years in the. >> market historically. >> would be consistent to see. >> some moderation for 2025. >> that was. >> for.

>> a basis for our expectation for. >> only. >> a 6%. year this year, which is a below average assumption, you know, with. that said, as we've seen some. volatility creep in the market. >> i think. >> it could linger through the balance of february. which is. >> a month that. >> historically hasn't been great for the stock market. but i do think that the longer term trends are intact. and so. >> for us. >> the key is about. >> is a focus. >> on selection and the. >> three sector standouts for us. >> are technology, financials and industrials. and for technology. it's a call. >> on software. >> which had a terrific. >> breakout after. >> the. >> us presidential election. really over the last 6 to 8. >> weeks it has. >> consolidated and i think. provided a. tactical opportunity to buy some of the names within that group. we had a weekend report dedicated. >> to. >> those ideas. >> we. >> highlighted a. whole broad. >> list of. >> stocks breaking out to the upside, to mention just one. one of the larger cap names, crowdstrike. it's rallied right

into its july peak at 397. it's paused here, but with a positive trend behind it and a bullish industry. those top down tailwinds. i think you see a breakout in crowdstrike over the coming weeks to months. >> a breakout in crowdstrike that sounds bullish, but what about hamilton, hamilton lane? we don't talk a lot about, but we're looking for possible winners amidst all of this. they're an investment management and management and advisory firm down 12% in recent months. why does this one also jump out to you? >> sure. well, this is part of our call. >> within the financial sector, specifically capital markets, more so than banks. i could have called out jp morgan or goldman sachs, but hamilton lane is tactical. it's down about 20% off its recent high. it's corrected right into the bullish slope of its 200 day average. what we see as a near-term opportunity to buy long term strength. there's a nice false breakdown there. you fell below that level. it came right back above it. that's a sign of selling fatigue. plus it was recently upgraded by the

fundamental analyst that covers it at oppenheimer. you add it up. and i think hamilton hamilton lane is at a bullish point. >> another major name that we talk about every day i'm kidding is mueller or mueller. mueller water products. they're one of the largest manufacturers of fire hydrants. and i assume water products i know nothing about mueller water products. who are they and what's your take. >> sure. >> so this. >> is they. >> fall into the capital goods and infrastructure theme, which is an established leader through the cycle. we initially upgraded the group back in september of 2022, and it has become a little bit more mixed. but we're seeing strength in these mid-cap names that aren't necessarily household names. we they are covered at oppenheimer, though, so there are some fundamental underpinnings here. this is actually what we would call an opco trifecta. our analyst is positive and outperform rated on the fundamentals. i think there's a bullish trend here. i see the support at the industry level as well. so it's another

stock down double digits from its prior high building a platform above that rising 200 day average. i think it sets up to see a resumption of its uptrend. mueller water. mwah. >> love it. a new name arie slash ari wald oppenheimer head of technical analysis ari, thank you very much. >> thank you i loved that. remember you can always get good content like that. if you listen to our podcast, just find it on any platform. search for power lunch wherever you go. and we'll be right back after this. welcome to reinvented with accenture. today i'm here with margherita della valle, ceo of vodafone. you were employee 25 in vodafone italy. today you're the ceo of vodafone. what is your strategy and vision for the future? >> we are. changing our culture. >> to really. >> focus on our customers. >> we need. to acknowledge. >> that change is hard, but if people.

>> understand it's for the right. >> reason. >> then you. >> get the. >> power. >> of the organization. >> with you. with income. >> products from brighthouse financial, you can turn a portion of your portfolio into guaranteed lifetime income for whatever the occasion calls for. brighthouse financial build for what's ahead. >> powering sustainable growth. in a changing world. powering financial solutions that transform industries, powering innovation with access to capital. powering critical decisions with precise data and insights. powering seamless execution in evolving markets. we deliver our entire global bank to power new possibilities

bank to power new possibilities for you. (traffic noises) (♪♪) the road to opportunity. is often the road overlooked. (♪♪) at enterprise mobility, we guide companies to unique solutions, from our team of mobility experts. because we believe the more ways we all have to move forward. the further we'll all go. fiber. biologics. nasdaq, fb, lg 160 patents issued and pending. leveraging a diverse. library of commercial use. fibroblast cells that. naturally fight disease and repair tissue. fiber biologics is developing a new and innovative cell therapy platform to treat chronic diseases, addressing multi-billion dollar markets, now advancing clinical trials

for wound care and multiple for wound care and multiple sclerosis. ♪ ♪ the flag replacement program got started by a good friend of mine, a navy vet, saw a flag at the office that needed to be replaced and said wouldn't this be great if this could be something that we did for anyone? comcast has always been a community driven company. this is one of those great examples of the way we're getting out there. >> or i'll leave you with the markets here this morning. i mean, you want to go right back to bed. dive under the covers. but stocks shaking off the tariff shock. tariff shock. that was not. but that was not the only shocking trade. i've said shock a lot. the dallas mavericks sending their star, one of the nba's star luka doncic, to the lakers for anthony davis and a draft pick.

big trade. >> huge. >> not tariff. >> shocking. more, maybe more shocking than all the tariff developments. absolutely shocking. is a minority owner of the mavs. now the adelson family is the controlling group. eric, obviously a big lakers fan. he's not loving it. thinks maybe they got the short end of the stick. >> and joe biden apparently just signed with creative artists agency. >> see what he has up his sleeve. >> i. >> closing bell starts now. >> welcome to closing bell. i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner. >> today this make. >> or. >> break hour begins. >> with stocks. tethered to tariff talk. >> with the indexes. rallying hard from a. >> sharp early. >> spill as. initial fears of immediate. >> tariffs on canada. mexico and china. >> imposed by. >> president trump were eased. somewhat by a ttave. agreement to delay. the mexico. >> action by 30 days and a plan. for talks. >> with canada. >> this hour. >> here is the scorecard. >> with 60. >> minutes left in regulation. the s&p 500 up. >> more than 1%. >> from the morning lows, now down just 4/10 of