>> wasn't so high to really change current business plans. the people that we spoke to said that they did, though, feel. emboldened to try to push more of the cost onto the u.s. consumer as well as u.s. partners. and that is mainly what they were feeling at this point. >> all right, eunice yoon, thank you. that's going to do it for us here at overtime. >> fast money starts now. >> live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square. this is fast money. here's what's on tap tonight. held hostage to the headlines. the latest one just minutes ago. canada will be spared from tariffs for the next 30 days. we'll get the very latest from the white house nasa desk. how you are supposed to trade in this kind of environment. plus the bottom of the bottle. booze stocks getting battered yet again. tariffs the latest hangover for a host of names that keep hitting new lows. and later palantir popping on the back of a big beat. we'll go off the charts and the dollar's next move. and is a burrito blowout on the menu for chipotle. that report out tomorrow. our hot and spicy

takes. >> straight ahead. >> i'm melissa lee coming to you live from studio. >> b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight karen finerman dan. nathan guy. >> and julie beil. we start off with the very latest headlines from the trade war. canadian prime minister justin trudeau tweeting. that there will be a 30 day. >> pause on u.s. tariffs. >> as canada says it will spend more. on its border and add more personnel. >> this is just. >> the latest twist. >> in a day of. reversals that dow. >> round tripped briefly. >> into positive territory. after president. >> trump agreed to pause 25%. tariffs on mexico for at least 30 days. >> the pauses. >> could be for a first. steps toward avoiding. what the wall. >> street journal is dubbing. >> the dumbest trade war in history. even as tariffs look. like they will remain in place for china. our megan costello joins us now. >> with more on where we go from here. what a day. >> megan. >> what a day. melissa. that's absolutely right. at least two legs of this trade war are now on pause for at least a month. a message coming in from president trump just seconds ago on truth social, confirming that news that he has reached a deal with canada to delay those tariffs. that comes after canada promises

to carry out this $1.3 billion border security plan. trudeau also saying that he will appoint a fentanyl czar to take care of that at the border. trump saying that it will be at least 30 days that those tariffs are on pause. that comes after he reached a similar deal earlier today with mexico president claudia sheinbaum. she agreed to send 10,000 troops to the southern border to focus on fentanyl specifically. she also said that the u.s. made some promises to not send so many weapons across the border into mexico. also, at least 30 days on pause there. negotiations ongoing. so we will play this game again a month from now. and the open question at this point, melissa, is what's going to happen with china? 10% tariffs on all chinese imports on top of any tariffs that are already in place, are set to take effect at midnight tonight. it's been a little quieter out of china than usual because of the lunar new year, but they have expressed some discontent here. they have vowed to retaliate. we know that the two leaders have not yet been in contact, but trump said earlier today that he does expect to speak with chinese officials within the next 24

hours or so he mentioned. so more to watch there. as of now. we do expect those tariffs to hit tonight melissa. >> megan. thank you. megan costello. >> from the white. >> house in the face of this tariff turmoil what do you do. >> do you wait it out. trade around it. >> i mean what. >> we saw today. >> was extreme. >> whiplash. when it came to the headlines. we thought. >> there were tariffs. and there's a 30 day reprieve with mexico. then again, for canada. >> yeah, well, we had vinnie and porter and danny moses and steve. you did a panel with them and vinnie talked about you. >> know. >> make make volatility great again in june of last year on this show. and again i think that's what. >> you're going to see. >> and they're going to be in. >> our business. we call them tape bombs and get ready. because the next 75 to 100. >> days i think you're going. >> to see more of them. and i don't know what you do other than embrace the fact. >> that vol is. probably going to be. sort of. >> on the other. >> side of 18.5, 19 for the foreseeable future. >> so you're going. >> to see whips like this. >> i'll say. >> real quick. >> again, though, i think today. >> and. >> all these. >> down days. >> you see the vulnerability. >> of a market that's.

>> trading at, i think, excessive valuations and how sort of tenuous things can be. >> so just to piggyback on what you said about the vix. so the vix went from like 16 to change to 20 which if we were in an all out trade war 20 would not be the number where we were. so i think there was a great deal of skepticism going into the day about well, all right this is where we're starting. but we'll see. there's likely going to be some movement. i don't think that would have been a surprise to most people, and i'm surprised it ended in one day. i don't know that it's fully over. there's not that's not what i'm saying. but i kind of don't quite understand the whole strategy. i think it's destabilizing to businesses to know there could be a trade war there might not. like if you're gm, what do you do? >> right? >> hard to run a business. >> you know. it's interesting about the strategy. >> i mean. >> if he had trudeau. >> come down to the white house. >> if he had. come up. >> to the white house and they had this. >> meeting and it looked really. >> nice and. >> official. >> and they. >> walked out to the. >> podium and. >> they. >> said. >> we've just. >> reached a really.

>> great deal. >> you know. >> that sort of thing. >> i think. those are. >> the. >> sorts of things that. >> ceos would. >> have a lot. >> of confidence in, especially when you. think about with our allies. >> now, on the flip side. >> with. >> our. >> adversaries like china. >> it's a. >> totally different. >> game, right? we've had tariffs. >> on them. >> they are punitive. >> we know. >> that they are adversaries. >> we have an economic. >> war with. >> them as it relates. >> to this kind. >> of. >> battle for. >> you know, ai. supremacy and. >> all. >> that sort. >> of stuff. and we. >> should continue with those regulations. >> with those. >> curbs, with a whole host. >> of. >> other things. >> and when you think about. >> you know, i. >> know there's. >> a lot of issues. >> about them stealing. >> our ip that's been going on for decades. >> and the like and. >> obviously some of this espionage. >> so china is actually 10%. >> if it stays there, that's fine. you know, i mean when you think about it because. >> we. >> will get concessions. it's the stuff. >> with the adversaries. >> that's the sort of stuff if you. >> are an. auto ceo here, if. >> you are an. >> energy company ceo here, this is the. >> sort. >> of stuff that really. >> hurts your planning, right? >> i mean, to that point. >> to dan's point to all of you guys points, i mean, we're talking about our our allies here. >> we're talking.

>> about in trade when it comes to. >> mexico and canada. >> and that's what's so destabilizing. when it's china, you completely get it. you know that it's coming. you know it's going to happen. but with mexico, with mexico and canada, it doesn't. >> make any sense after. so many decades of just sort of open borders and our. >> ability to move things back and forth in manufacturing and goods. julie, what do you do here? because we've got 30 days theoretically now, and i don't know what the off ramp is because there hasn't been any there haven't been any metrics. it's not like we want to reduce fentanyl shipments by x percent or x number of tons. or whatever. some people say that because there aren't any metrics. >> that is the off ramp. >> he can call it track of ever. >> but this. >> reminds me of the advice i've gotten from many pediatricians. you know, when your child curses, which mine. >> does. >> is to under-react. right. and i think that's. really the benefit to investors. >> right now is don't just do something, sit there. >> because the fact is. >> is there's just.

>> not enough visibility. >> or clarity. >> and things. >> can reverse super quickly. so trying to position yourself perfectly for one specific outcome is not going to be the thing to do. now, if you're a long term. >> investor, a lot. >> of times. we're going to. >> probably get opportunities to buy. >> good companies. >> at better valuations. so i'm excited to have a little more volatility. because i think most. >> of our companies. >> can manage. >> through this. over the long term. >> are there companies, are there sectors that you'd be looking for? we've seen some of the reactions. we've gotten a glimpse of what the impact could be in terms of the stocks, a glimpse, an idea. we saw. >> it in the. >> automakers, we saw in some of the homebuilders, i mean, dollar stores. et cetera. >> i mean, are. >> there any entry points in. >> your view. >> here if it goes lower or if there's more volatility? yeah. this is interesting. >> you're trying. >> to find sectors that might be impervious or some. >> that have sold. >> off enough where it could. >> get interesting. >> i mean some of. >> these look i mean aerospace defense. >> stocks for a litany. >> of different. >> reasons have been. >> under considerable. >> pressure since the election. >> i think at some point,

probably not now. there's an area, but names that seemingly are outside of the. >> purview of this. to me at least. >> you know, software names i think are winning in this environment for. >> a myriad of different. >> reasons, most of which what we heard last monday from deep seek and some of these. >> other things, i. >> think the ultimate winner becomes software. i think they sort of fly under the radar. >> yeah. >> nothing went down enough to really, you know, as you're saying. i mean, levels are high already going into this. so yeah, nothing went down enough that i bought very little today. very little. >> does this sort. >> of underscore the notion that there should be a premium accorded to some sectors, and maybe it's software, maybe it's a. >> name like meta, which was up. today that. >> are not subject to the whims of. >> this trade war. >> i mean, meta is one of these ones that everyone loves. there's too many people who love it. it's just seems like a very. >> concentrated trade. i know you love. >> it. >> and it's just gone. >> up in a straight. >> line. >> you know, 100 bucks. >> you know? >> and i just. >> don't think that's particularly. >> a natural reaction. >> to the. >> quarter and. >> the guidance that they gave. and i get it valuation and i get

what they've. >> been doing in ai and how. >> it works for their business. >> and it's one of the first. >> use cases that makes a lot of sense. but it does kind of speak to the fact that. >> the. >> ai bubble. >> has. >> not even. >> kind of. >> taken other. >> than nvidia. >> and microsoft. >> of late, but microsoft stuck in the range that it's been. >> you know, look at amazon. >> you know. >> look. >> at google and obviously meta. >> they're trading at all time highs. >> so you. >> know you've seen a. >> rotation out. >> of some. of these. >> names where there's been some deceleration. >> the numbers have. >> not continued to go up. >> but we're going to get a good. i don't know. >> if we're. >> doing that later in the show. i didn't. >> read the rundown, but. >> like we're going to get. >> a. >> good. >> look of the. >> amazon and the. >> google and. >> what they. >> have to say about capex. >> and, you. >> know, and. >> there's some issues. >> potentially there. >> you know, if you think. >> about. >> it. >> they both have cloud businesses. they both have been investing in around this. they've both. >> been tripping. >> over each other to. >> invest in like anthropic. >> that. >> sort of thing. so if you think about the reasons. >> why microsoft sold off, because. >> there's. >> been a decel in their growth of. >> their cloud business, i think those things are. >> you know, something. >> you want to pay. >> attention for this week?

>> yeah. >> julie. >> i mean, i think there really are no sectors that. >> are. >> completely immune from a trade war, right? because if it leads to much. >> more significant inflation, that's going to have a negative impact for everyone in terms of interest rates, valuations and mostly just consumer confidence and the ability to continue to go out there and spend. >> so i don't. >> think any sector is going to be immune. >> from any kind of. a trade war. and i think that. >> is reflected in the tenacity. >> the fear that. >> we see. >> in this. >> market around this trade war. >> i think that's why we have, you know, an editorial. >> from the wall street journal calling, you know, the president's first major action. you know, something that's dumb. like, it's pretty clear. yeah. >> for more on what is next for. >> the. >> markets. >> let's bring. >> in the chart. >> master carter. braxton worth carter. >> you're looking at the s&p as well. >> as the us dollar. so what are the. >> charts telling you. >> well sure. before we. >> get to them we. >> have. an all. data chart. >> for the us dollar an all data chart. >> for the s&p. so sometimes very. >> short time frames are important. >> and then we thought we'd look. >> at very long. >> time frames. >> but what. >> we know is that today there's it's. >> a fair thing to interpret.

>> it both as quite bearish. >> and yet. >> others well it shook it off. >> didn't it. >> and a lot of stocks did. >> quite well. important stocks like. >> a meta or a google or an amazon versus others. and so we'll see. jump ball here. my own. >> bias is that. >> we're churning and it's. >> stalling and. >> there's risk. >> reward that's poor. but let's get to it. so here is an all data chart. >> of the s&p 500. >> since inception in 1928. and you can see, of course. those dates. one could. >> say well isn't. >> this, you know. >> just sort. >> of. fear mongering. >> i have. >> no comment other than. >> we sent it out to clients. today and. >> last night. and the. >> idea is that we're at. >> a at. >> an interesting juncture. and so the bull would say we're going to move. >> up and out of this well-defined. >> internal trend line. >> and it's the beginning of yet the new.

>> bull market. >> and others would say, no, this is a very. >> difficult level, but to equate it. >> an analogy. >> is a weak form of argument. there are no. analogs to 19, 29 or 2000 other than if. >> you do some valuation work. there are those that are making the case that we are. as full or as expensive as we. >> were at any time. >> in history. my own hunch is to reduce exposure. but to the dollar, obviously. that's a yeah, go ahead please. >> no. >> no, no for the us dollar. >> yeah. so here's an all data chart. of the us dollar. >> and what we know is that obviously that peak. >> is 1985. >> that's the plaza accord. now if you look at the. >> trade weighted. >> us dollar index it's making all time highs. >> but there. >> are three. >> ways to annotate it. this is. >> one. of three. >> let's look. >> at. >> another same chart 50 year old data chart. >> and then final. >> iteration would be this way. those all point. >> to. >> higher levels. to my eye one might. >> draw. >> the lines differently. >> but that's what i see. >> okay carter. thank you.

carter braxton worth of worth charting. >> interesting. the chart work. seems to coincide. >> with what a lot of. >> strategists are saying. david kostin over at goldman sachs saying 5% pullback on the s&p and the tariff impact just in terms of dollar, not in terms. >> of. >> the impact on consumer confidence, not in terms of the impact on financial conditions, but just mathematically speaking, those tariffs could mean a 2 to 3% reduction in s&p 500 earnings for this year. >> yeah. >> that's the key right? i mean it's all predicated on earnings and earnings growth. and i think listen coming into this year i think the market was expecting 14.5% or so earnings growth. i never thought we'd get anywhere close. >> but to. >> your point, if these were sort of being protracted, you know you're knocking that down. i think a couple handles a couple standard deviations lower on top of a market. >> that's probably. >> already expensive on the back. >> of that. so it. >> is concerning without question and quickly, the price action. karen made a great point there that she always makes great points. but on thursday when apple reported the stock was trading 234, she said wait for the conference call. that happened. she was right. the stock traded up to 247. but

obviously the aftermath, the trading activity in terms of the way it's been. >> trading. >> has not been good. microsoft throwing that. >> mix. >> even if you want to throw tesla. >> in. >> that mix. >> and then go. >> back to nvidia. and we flagged that today after. >> earnings. >> that engulfing pattern. these were all technical reasons. now you're throwing some fundamentals on top. might get this thing moving a little bit. >> it's always. >> interesting when you hear you know a pullback of 5% in the s&p. that's been making new highs for like two years. you know and. it wouldn't be. >> hard to. >> get that. we had one. >> just you know a month. >> ago or so. >> but i. >> think about. >> again the conversation we just had. about uncertainty i think about expectations as far as earnings growth. you know normally you. >> would see you know s&p earnings. growth expectations come. >> down a little bit into the year that. >> sort of thing. >> and they haven't. >> they stayed pat. >> but if. >> you look. >> at carter's work on the dollar if you. >> think about where. >> yields are and they don't really move. they're stuck at 4.5% or so. you look at cme fed funds futures and you say to yourself, well you know. >> we're going to be here. for a while. >> and you say to yourself with this. >> tariff uncertainty. >> there's actually. >> a. >> lot of good. >> reasons why. >> earnings growth. should be

less. >> which could. >> cause easily. >> a 5%. decline off a market that's trading at 22 times. >> so again. >> i don't think that's such. >> a bold call. >> it makes sense. >> but it's kind. >> of consensus. >> i agree i mean it's hard for management to. feel comfortable about what's going to happen next quarter. so a lot of times we care about what happened in the quarter. and to the extent the dollar moved, maybe we'll dismiss it. maybe often it's somewhat dismissed. constant currency. how did they do. but the idea of planning for the future it gets much harder. so i think you have to be more conservative. >> for more. >> on the. extreme moves in the currency markets, because. >> we did see a lot of that. >> over the weekend. >> and today. >> let's bring in jens nordvig. >> exante data's founder and ceo. >> he also is the co-founder and ceo of. >> market leader. >> wall street analysis platform. jens, always great to see you. it's been a roller coaster in the currency markets. we've just seen such extreme swings. and so i'm wondering. >> how you. >> how your clients are treating. >> this and what you what you're expecting for the us dollar. >> it's really. >> one of those situations, right, where we. >> get a.

>> new headline literally. >> every hour. and we've had incredible. >> moves thursday. >> incredible moves friday and. extraordinary moves. >> here. >> and monday's trading. and now. with the latest. >> headlines. >> we've actually. >> had the moves. >> more than fully reversed for the mexican. >> peso, the canadian dollar. >> right. >> because there's. >> this delay. >> in the tariffs. >> that's been announced. >> during the day. >> and the market is now. >> kind of. >> jumping onto. this idea that there's going to be a delay, that. >> even the. >> china tariffs. >> that are supposed. >> to come into. effect at midnight. >> there's an. >> expectation the market, that there will also be a delay for those. >> even though there has been no announcement specific to that. so it's an extremely. >> erratic market move, probably some of the most erratic trading i've seen in my career. >> and it's i. >> think. >> it's really important to not overtrade the headlines and think about what is the direction we're actually. >> going, what. >> is the administration really.

>> want to do? is it a negotiating tactic. >> or is. >> it a policy. >> that they really want to implement? and i think there's a big difference between what they're trying to do in relation to mexico and what they're trying to do in relation to china. two totally different things. >> before we get to that, jens, i'm just curious in terms of the wild. swings we've. >> seen. >> how much of that is. >> just positioning into. >> the tariffs or. >> what, you know, perceived tariffs, and how. >> much is that. >> sort of increasing the. >> volatility here. >> yeah. >> so i've been. >> working with institutional. >> investors throughout the whole weekend. right to. >> plan for the trading session here on monday. >> and i think a lot. of people were just. embedding a new kind of scenarios. >> for okay, where are different currencies. >> going to go if. >> these tariffs. >> actually come into effect. >> right. >> and we we've. >> never known with certainty and we still don't know. but that's the. >> sort of. >> new mapping out of the new. >> equilibrium that. >> all the institutional investors are doing. and the big question is just are these tariffs going to stick or is it just. negotiating like a

negotiating tactic. >> yeah. you know, the currencies to me drive everything. but the people watching this show are typically equity. >> traders investors. >> so in. your opinion and back on august 5th it was the dollar yen move that got things moving. what should we be watching. like what's the one thing that you wake up and say where is dollar. fill in the blank. >> yeah. so. >> so right now i. >> think we have some. kind of proper information about what's going on with canada and mexico, but we have no information. >> about whether. >> the tariffs will happen or not happen. >> with china. >> so i think literally where dollar china is trading at midnight tonight will be crucial. right. because that's when the tariff will start to officially be collected. and that's going. >> to be the. >> key stress. >> point that we're going to. >> have a reality. >> check effectively, whether. >> we can relax as much as we've relaxed over the last few. >> hours. >> as opposed to looking at the crosses. that directly pertain to the countries. >> targeted by tariffs. are

there other. currencies that. >> we should be watching. >> too, for ancillary effects? >> for instance, you know, tariffs on china means. >> you know, us. >> brazil feels an impact us argentina. >> peso i mean what. >> are some of the. >> ancillary effects. >> so actually. >> today we had we had we had some really unusual moves today. right. that we had tariffs announced in relation to canada and mexico, china. and the euro was actually extremely weak today. like there was more surprise that. trump started to. >> talk about. >> potential for. eu related tariffs. >> during the weekend. >> and the euro. got really. scared about that. >> so you. >> can see that big dip in the chart there. that was really. >> a fear. that eu. >> tariffs could could be coming soon. >> so that's. >> probably the one to watch right. people are really. >> on edge. >> whether he could follow. through on those specific threats. and he's. >> been talking about repeatedly. >> that he's not happy with. >> what the. eurozone is. >> doing and. >> the eu. >> is doing in relation to car

trade, auto trade. so that's why there's a huge amount of focus on that. >> yeah. he just said, i. >> think on friday that he's. >> looking to do. >> something significant. >> when it. >> comes to the eu. >> so i guess that's why people are on tenterhooks on, on that trade. jens, how. >> would you how are you recommending now traders position themselves? what crosses the most interesting to. >> you in terms. >> of the risk reward. >> yeah. >> so china is actually on holiday right. so when we look at how the chinese currency is trading, we have to look at c and h as opposed to cny to get a real time picture. they'll only come back on wednesday. but i think that's where the action will be. that's where the clue is going to be. and right now, i'd say the risks are underpriced because i don't think the situation is just because they have delayed things for canada and mexico doesn't mean that it's going to be late in the same way for china. so watch out there. i think there could be a big move that could also spill into all the, you know, 80 hours and so forth of chinese companies that are listed. so i think some equity action is pretty likely on that

front too. >> all right. we're going to leave it there. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> hans nordvig of exante. >> so i mean it's make volatility great again in the currency markets also. >> and it's been great. >> for. >> a while. >> and i think it's going to continue to be. and he's right i mean listen the yuan is absolutely something. you got to watch dollar yen without question. but what happens all roads all roads are leading back to gold as well. continues to make basically. >> new. >> time all time highs every. >> single day in environments. >> where historically it shouldn't do well. that's what you should be watching. >> you know. >> friend of the show. >> david rosenberg. rosenberg research. >> had a. >> note. >> out. >> this morning. really interesting stuff. i mean, his point was he thinks that trump has. >> kind of overstepped his bounds with this negotiation. >> and what it. >> does. >> it runs. >> the risk of inflation going higher. and the. >> very people who. >> voted him into. office are going to. >> really feel the effect. >> of higher inflation, and they're going to forget that the biden administration. was the. >> cause or the. >> way they. thought the cause for that inflation. >> and then what. >> happens is you have some pressure on getting through some

of these pro-growth sort of fiscal policies, because in his own. >> party in. >> the house, okay, you're going to get these fiscal. hawks acting up a little bit. so again, i think they have to walk a very fine line, because that was one of the reasons for. >> the. >> changeover that we saw. people wanted less regulation, more pro-growth policies, and this could be the sort of thing that actually causes. >> it to kind of. >> get stalled in that. >> first year. >> i think your point about. >> the electorate and people, consumers out there feeling the impact really is going sort of as confetti falls on me. >> you know, people are. >> underestimating that impact, julie, because you think, you know, up to the elections, people put on hold their purchases. they're hearing that things are going to cost more. i mean, that's sort of the untold effect. >> the last time we. had tariffs. >> we weren't coming off of an inflationary scenario like we are. this time we are in shock still from inflation where people are still feeling it out there. >> yeah, i think that's something that's kind. of understated is that, you know the last time we had tariffs,

none of us really had experienced inflation in any kind of recent memory. and i think. >> it's much more. >> meaningful now to have price. pressure happening. and i think having so little clarity on how it's going to impact consumers still is a big concern. you know, i think we continue to chart. prices and see that there are pockets. >> of goods that are really. >> under quite a bit of pricing pressure, particularly. >> in groceries. >> and that's a place. >> that was pretty. >> central to the debate. >> for. >> trump versus kamala harris. so i think going forward, the real key is kind of continuing to follow how this. >> impacts the consumer, because i think so much of. >> the us economy. >> is driven. >> by what happens with the. >> us consumer. >> and the confidence around that, and. >> the willingness. >> to spend is. >> going to be critical. >> coming up, earnings. >> season in full swing and shares of palantir surging after reporting results. the details on the numbers moving the name next. plus the bar lowered yet again. booze stocks pouring one out as tariff headlines hit the group. why investors are getting on the wagon and off the trade.

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>> a. >> top. >> and bottom line beat. >> the q4. conference call kicked off the top of the hour. seema mody. >> has got more. >> on these results. seema. >> well, melissa. palantir painting a picture of optimism on the call. >> with its guide. >> for the full year. much better than. >> expected demand. >> for artificial intelligence products that help. businesses and. >> governments continues. >> to soar. really? >> ways for the company to help these clients assess bigger playbooks. >> and synthesize. >> complex data. ceo alex karp telling shareholders that the momentum. >> the company. >> is experiencing across its commercial and. government segments is, quote, unlike anything that has come before. >> with the. >> us army. >> extending its partnership for up to four years. on tariffs, karp telling cnbc this is a revolutionary moment. there are going to be. >> ups and downs, as. >> long as it's good for the upward. >> trajectory of america. >> we support it. we're looking at shares hitting a. >> new all time high of about 22% in after. >> hours, but only three buy ratings on wall street. >> melissa, while there are 14. holds and six sell. >> ratings, analysts at jefferies, they hold an underperform rating. and they're

saying. >> we're not debating the. >> fundamentals, its valuation. >> that. >> they think is unsustainable. >> back to you, seema. >> thanks, seema mody. it's also worth noting the average price target on the street is. >> $51, about half of where. >> it is trading right now in the. >> after hour session. >> an extraordinary performance by this company. last year. and look at it this year. >> so far. >> without question. and if you how many years ago was the hope trade. >> from just three years. >> ago at least. so i'm just ahead of my time. >> but in our world. >> early is wrong. >> but what they're doing now is the hope for palantir was, to a certain extent, what we're seeing now. the problem. and not that there's a problem at $102, but now it's a $220 billion market cap company. they're going to do three and a half to $4 billion in revenue. put on to $5 billion in cash. they have. and i'll round it up to ten. and you're talking about a company that's you know 2021 times sales which is you know and this move i don't think it's commensurate with the size of the beat i get it. there's excitement. they have a lot of runway. but this is a very expensive stock.

>> yeah. but the numbers were spectacular. i mean i wouldn't have bought this a third of the price to go, but i mean these the revenue growth numbers. >> for the quarter. >> are huge. looking forward. they're huge. interesting to me. commercial revenue growing much more quickly i mean it's a very good for the whole trade right. for the whole i complex i think but really spectacular rule of 40 which we don't talk about that much. you know you're looking for growth and margin 81. i mean it was just spectacular on so many fronts, but just way too rich for me. but i've said that, you know, for tens and 20, 30, 50 points. >> well. >> this is one that is really in the hands of investors, right? the company keeps executing. they keep beating. >> and raising. >> and that's getting. >> investors really excited. they don't really. care about valuation. or any of the sorts of, you know, like. >> the. spread between what. >> is logical and what they're willing to pay. and it just goes to show. >> you that there are. >> $200 billion meme stocks. >> and that's what it is. >> that doesn't. >> that's what it is. >> yeah. it doesn't mean i'm not denigrating the company, their products. >> their services.

>> and their execution. it's really again, it goes back to this is what investors. >> are looking to play. and it also says. >> that we've been talking. >> about the narrowness. >> of this trade. >> and the guy just said it. >> it's like here's a company who's. >> executing on that plan. they've articulated that plan. it fits right in the most exciting narrative in the markets. and that's what's happening. but don't think for a second that when things slow down, this. >> company. >> is not. >> going to get. >> slow. >> down, though. well, because isn't demand i mean, in in some respects you can say that this is a defensive business that they are in. it is. defense right through technology. >> look at the defense companies. i mean like this. >> is does this have a bigger market cap than your lockheed, the l. >> in your clam? >> i mean. >> like what's what's. well, it's the same market cap, for example. i mean obviously extraordinarily much like mcdonald's, for example. i think it's the same size a company. it's palantir. i mean, so it's interesting how they've grown into this. i mean, this is an excessive market cap. i think, given their given their revenue. >> and. >> given their projected growth. but people are excited about their story. and he and he tells a great story. he's been telling it, by the way, for a long time.

it's just over the last two and a half years, people started to listen. >> julie. >> where do you stand? yeah, i mean, i'm happy to see certain elements of this business kind of coming to fruition. like now we're actually seeing gaap earnings. >> and for. >> me, that's really. >> much more. >> meaningful than. >> the level. >> of adjusting that this company tends to like to do. and i agree, i think that the forward momentum. >> is with this business. >> but that doesn't mean that it's completely infallible. >> its customer base is good, but that doesn't. >> mean that you can't see a spending slowdown. >> and the thing is. >> when you have valuation like this, execution has to. be perfect every quarter. you have to beat and raise. and if you. >> don't. >> you get punished pretty mercilessly. >> right. there's a. >> lot. >> more fast money to come. here's what's coming up next. >> booze stocks going flat as trump tariff headlines brew up a storm for the space. how investors are trading around those spirits ahead. plus drug costs coming into focus as tariffs threaten the pharma and biotech trade. what to expect

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>> back to fast money. stocks climbing back from steep early losses as president. trump pauses tariffs on mexico and canada. >> the dow down nearly. >> 700 points at the lows, closing 122 points lower. the s&p down three quarters of a percent and the nasdaq down more than a percent, but also well off the lows. gold and energy jumping in. >> today's. >> tariff headlines. gold up nearly 1%. crude and brant higher. >> nat gas. surging boost. >> stocks heading in the opposite direction. the group getting hit as tariffs weigh in the space and some more after hours action. shares of clorox lower despite a top and a bottom line beat and nxp semi higher after beating earnings and revenue expectations. guy what do you want to trade. >> constellation excuse me constellation brands. >> s t z. if you look i mean this was a great performer. >> for about a year and. >> a. half two. >> years and obviously the last if you pull up a chart i mean the last couple of months have been catastrophic. and that's not hyperbole. i mean, just look at how poorly the stock has traded. valuation very compelling. people are selling first asking questions later. i think you can get down to about 160, which was the low we saw a

couple of. >> years ago. >> that was sort of the take off point. but there's still more pain ahead and they don't report until i think early april. so keep that in mind. more downside i think. >> all right. coming up. >> between tariffs and a hard place for pharma and biotech getting hit as trump tariff headlines stoke rising drug costs. here's how health care venture capitalist is navigating venture capitalist is navigating the waters when ♪ empower ♪ i got her a little something. a little something, dad? hold up. walt rolled his 401k accounts into an empower ira, and it's grown nicely. i'm for team splurge. (♪♪) thanks, grandpa! get good at money. so you can be a little bad. empower. ichi, ni, san, shi... (1,2,3,4 . . ) ruri never thought she would live out her dream. then one day, she did. you were made to chase your passions. we were made to put them in a package. >> your business. >> shape the future or be shaped

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improve your skin at omni luxe ledcom. >> welcome back to fast. >> money biopharma stocks. taking it on the chin today on fears that president trump's tariffs could. >> raise drug. >> costs and worsen shortages in the u.s. the s&p pharma etf dropping three quarters of a percent while the biotech etf dropped nearly 1.5%. the recouping some losses after hours. for more on the potential impact. let's bring in versant ventures managing director carlo rizzuto. the firm invests in early stage pharma companies. carlo, great to have you with us. >> thanks for. >> having me. we initially asked you. >> on because. >> of your investments in the obesity drug space. >> which. >> we will get to. but i'm just curious, you know, as more and more companies here in the us look to china specifically for deals for the next promising molecule. >> whether it be in obesity. >> or cancer, how will tariffs impact? how will the worsening relationship, in theory, impact those sorts of relationships? >> i think there's two ways that the impacts.

>> could take place. the first is. >> through. >> you know, accessing products that are. >> innovated in. >> china and then brought. >> over to the. us or to other markets. >> you know, we'll. >> have to see how the. >> tariffs are. >> exactly structured. >> to understand if. >> it really. >> will affect that. >> sort of trade. >> but more. >> tangibly. >> at. >> least for most of our. >> businesses. china is a. huge center for contract research and. >> for manufacturing, and anything that increases. >> the cost of that. >> is. >> going to. >> make. >> it more challenging in our space. >> you know, we're already. >> you know, a space that's under pressure in terms of investor. sentiment and. increasing costs is. >> not going to help that. >> i don't think people realize how much. >> is actually done in china when. >> it comes. >> to developing pipelines and developing next drugs, as you mentioned, research, contracting the research. and we're not just. talking about the. biosecurity act. we're talking in those terms. >> obviously. >> but there are other firms that companies use, big companies like merck or whatever to develop drugs over there precisely because. >> of the cost. >> i mean, can you give us an

idea just, you know, for the american. >> public that a lot of. >> drugs are actually being worked. >> on there on our behalf? >> i mean. >> if i look at our portfolio. >> you. >> know, we probably manage. >> about 80. companies actively, virtually. >> all of them. >> are using a chinese cro or manufacturing. >> partner in some way in the r&d and development process. right? so it's a. >> very significant. >> part of how biotech and pharma companies operate. and it goes from the smallest. >> company up. >> to the very largest ones, the merck's, you know, etc. so it's a it's a very significant part of how the sector operates. >> can you. give us an idea of how much you know in your portfolio companies, let's say, how much more it would cost if you had to bring that research or how disruptive it would be if one had to bring that research and reshore. it to the. >> united states. >> well. >> the i mean, to put it. >> in perspective. >> if let's just say. >> that we wanted to reshore all of the. >> externalized r&d. >> and manufacturing today, we couldn't do it. there's not enough capacity in the us. so

it's very difficult. >> to imagine how. >> that would happen. >> but just in terms of pure costs, i mean, i think you're just. >> looking at linearly with. >> respect to the amount. >> of. >> tariff that's applied. >> okay. >> i do want to talk about your weight loss portfolio, because you have investments in a number of companies. how should we think about the space? are we still thinking about gips and glp one or are you sort of going next next step. >> beyond that? >> yeah, we see the obesity. >> space and cardio metabolism more. >> broadly as. >> the single largest value creation. >> opportunity in the history of the industry. >> and so we're building a broad portfolio. >> to contribute. >> from multiple angles. >> you know, we've. >> started working on. what we call adjacencies. >> to the incretins. so the glp. >> ones and the. >> gips. >> but also. >> thinking about even further afield. >> approaches that are sort of the next horizon. >> so thinking about ways to. >> address comorbidities. >> that obesity. patients suffer. >> but in the very. >> long run, ways to reset. >> what we call the metabolic

set point. so these are. >> this is. >> a. >> mechanism that your body uses. when it's being starved. >> to slow. >> metabolism and therefore conserve calories. >> it's a. >> great thing if you're a hunter gatherer in a cave and have a lean winter. not such. >> a good. >> thing in our, you know, food abundant world. >> so we've heard about the loss of muscle mass, and that's a really important thing to try to solve. and then also the delivery mechanism. could it be or are those sort of the very next thing or how far away are those and what's after that. >> well the near. >> term needs and this is where. >> helicorp comes in, are improving tolerability nausea and vomiting. >> patient discontinuations are a big deal on current glp one based medicines. addressing fat mass versus lean mass. >> so preserving muscle. >> while still losing fat is. >> a. >> significant area. >> for innovation. and that's where helicorp comes in. we got excited about helicorp because. >> it offers a first in class approach that should. >> be more tolerable that.

>> precisely targets fat while. >> sparing lean. >> muscle mass. and we. know that. muscle mass is critical for overall health. >> so that's. >> that was the reason the versant. partnership got excited. >> about helicorp. but in. >> addition to that. there are significant. unmet needs in maintaining weight loss. >> once a. patient has. >> reduced their weight, you know, by the. 20 to 25% that can be achieved with current therapies. and we want to avoid the rebound effect, which is that when the patient comes off the therapy, they very. >> rapidly regain. >> the weight that. >> was lost. >> and most of that regain is coming from fat. >> and not. >> being rebuilt as muscle. >> so that's quite problematic from an overall. >> body composition. >> and long. >> term health perspective. >> carla, we'd love to have you back to talk. >> more about. >> the weight loss space. carla. my pleasure. versent. a lot of things that we touched on in terms of the tariff impact on the space, but also the next sort of frontier when it comes to weight. >> loss. >> no doubt. >> and i. >> think if we have a further conversation, we'll talk about the potential for m&a in this space. i mean, names like bristol and pfizer and even merck to a certain extent have not performed.

>> and i. >> think they're going to have to do something in 2025, and that's something that's grow by acquisition. so i think it's going to be a really interesting time. if you can identify some of these smaller biotech companies. >> and by the way, merck does have a partnership with the chinese company. for an oral obesity. >> candidate. >> the right to develop manufacture. so, you know, and they just inked that i think at the end of 2024. so this is really a very common thing for the pharma industry here. in the. us to reach out to china to look for the next potential blockbuster. >> i mean, it's sort of playing the next, next game, which is an interesting like, yeah, i feel like vc and anything but vc on the cutting edge of pharma is sort of you got to have a lot of tough stomach. >> i think. courage, courage. >> there we go. >> that's the word. >> that's temerity. >> yeah. coming up, closing the retail loophole. >> how trump's latest tariff moves are impacting the likes of didi and other chinese e-commerce names, and what it could mean for advertisers as well. that is next. back in two. >> welcome to reinvented with

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duty free. on top of that, a report out of bank of america global research. >> adds. >> that if fewer packages end up in the united states because of the exemption going away, growth could be hurt and that could lead to marketing budgets being slashed. that could hurt names like meta and alphabet. julie, is this a reason to be concerned? they also say that you know a name like etsy could actually benefit from this. >> yeah, no, i. >> think this loophole. >> has been pretty well exploited by teemu and shine. they've done a great job of being able to find ways to avoid these kinds of duties. and i think closing this. >> loophole makes actually. >> a lot of sense. what's going to be interesting is understanding the follow on effects. the thing is, is that most of the teemu and shine things. are so cheap that quite honestly, i don't think it's. >> going to make a. >> huge difference in the consumption patterns around it. people are going to want their cheap wares. >> no matter what. >> so i'm not as worried about it for meta. i do always think that there are opportunities for people to kind of recognize what's out there. >> on etsy. >> i'm always surprised the

innovation that's actually happening. >> just locally. >> yeah. >> what's your take on you raised this a long. >> time ago. >> because tim and shine obviously spent a lot. >> in terms of advertising. >> on facebook as well as instagram. yeah, exactly. >> all right. >> it's like the two billionaire or something. >> that's moderated a bit and i guess i'd be more focused. >> i had the. >> stat here. >> more than. 70% of. >> the products sold on amazon are manufactured in. >> china. >> and a disproportionate. >> amount of the gmv are sellers. >> from china. so you get. >> this both ways. you know. >> i don't know how this is something that is, you know, this de minimis rule goes away. it's got to affect amazon. >> and. >> then the other folks over there. so to me, i just think that it seems a little precarious because those tariffs are staying on for. >> a while. >> coming up, another busy week of earnings including reports from alphabet, pfizer and chipotle all out tomorrow. how are the traders are setting up are the traders are setting up for those names next. more fast it all started with a small business idea. it's a pillow with a speaker in it! that's right craig. pulling in the perfect team to get the job done. i'm just here for the internets. at&t, it's super-fast!

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headliner after the bell. chipotle also set to report q4 results. and pfizer kicking things off tomorrow morning. so we kick it off with alphabet. karen what do you think? >> yes. so we're talking about on the on our midday call i

think two things. cloud after microsoft that will be interesting. and after meta search and advertising. so i'm long. i think that what happened at palantir tonight is probably supportive for that trade in general. just ai and cloud. >> yeah, i mean i think the bigger issue is obviously they're two very different businesses, two very different applications. search is google's bread and butter. but to your point, any deceleration in that google cloud business is going to be extrapolated, i think, more importantly is like how much is this new overlay when you do a search on google, how much is it cannibalizing? let's just say the blue link business. and, you know, at the end of the day, gemini is not nearly as good of a product as chatgpt. and so if you have this behavior, if you see some of the numbers, the way that they're growing users and then paid users, it's got to come out of google. and i like the name and i get why you like the name. the stock had that big gap after that quantum computing thing was a little quizzical, but the fact that this stock has been immune to any downside selling pressure in the. in the wake of what happened with deep sea last week is very curious to me. it's

going to take a big beat in the race to get the stock higher, in my opinion. >> all right. let's talk chipotle. yes. because we do like to talk about a good burrito blowout four times a year guy. >> it's more than that sister. hahahahahahahahahahaha that's pretty funny actually. stifel just reiterated a buy with a $70 price target, and they've been on top of this thing for a while now. obviously, this is sort of the epicenter of any tariffs with mexico for a myriad of different reasons that have somewhat been, i guess, assuaged by what we heard over the last couple of hours valuation. the concern has always been a concern. this will come down to comps, which i think is expected 5.7 and margins. i think they're going to actually surprise people to the upside. so i think you continue to stay long. cmg sister. >> avocados. avocados. avocados chile, veal. they will be subject you know, if these tariffs get back in place and that will bite into margins. >> yeah i agree i think the commentary around margins is probably the thing that i'm most interested in because the valuation for me of a

restaurant, no matter what, how quality it is, it's just prohibitive. but all of the commentary around costs and not just that, but labor costs too, i think is really kind of an important place to pay attention. okay. >> up next, final trades. >> next destroyers. the fed's going to have our backs if things get weak. i see inflation coming down. housing costs are coming down. supermarkets getting slightly better. oil is pulling back, auto prices going lower. and that's the data i like the data. >> mad money next cnbc. >> in a world of uncertainty and disruption, how will your investments stay resilient? we've been navigating change for 125 years, always looking forward, anticipating risks and trusted to manage over $1 trillion in assets worldwide. solving for the needs of investors today and tomorrow. that's the power of nuveen.

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>> dan. >> i've never had a girl bring me anywhere. really tough. >> i believe. >> you got an upgrade here today. that looks a little overdone, guy. >> ek. that would be the e in my tube. are you playing our home game? >> thank you for watching fast money. we'll see you back here tomorrow at five. mad money with jim cramer starts right now. >> my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to cramerica. my friends i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to teach you, but to entertain you. so call me at one 807 43 cnbc or tweet me jimcramer. just because there's a flurry of business announcement by president trump does not mean the sky is falling. especially when he's doing exactly what he told you