>> i'm going to go back to deckers. it's down 21% in the past week. it's gone from 38 times earnings to 28 times earnings. best in class on sale. uggs are growing 16%. hoka is growing 23%. like the story? >> josh, we were just talking about i'm a nike guy. josh, i know you're a nike guy too. i'm never switching from jordan. steph's jump ship all the way off. >> the ship. >> all right. that is for halftime. the exchange starts right now. >> thank you very much, frank. and welcome to the exchange i'm kelly evans and here's what's ahead. tariffs are so 24 hours ago. today wall street is back in love with growth stocks like meta and palantir. in fact palantir has. >> now. >> soared 300%, including today's huge earnings pop in just the past few months. but one of our guests says there's something about their business that gives her pause. she'll explain in just a moment. plus, think about these numbers for a second. 17 the number of companies who split. >> their stock last year, 25% is the. >> average return on those

stocks a year later, 39 is the number of companies. bank of america. says could be. next is netflix one of them? their analyst joins us. >> with the who, the why. >> and the when. >> and our. >> guest downgrading this retail name. and it's not because. >> of their china exposure. >> as those tariffs do go into effect. >> it's because of. >> this which the whole market. should care about will reveal it all ahead. first, let's get over to dom chu in his ice palace. >> dom, my fortress of solitude. welcome back to thecube, kelly. of course, our dashboard for market data visualization. now it's a day of gains. as you can see so far today for the major indices, some more than others, but prices are not really showing fears over that prolonged global trade war. >> so let me show you the big. >> picture the dow is currently. you can see here just up about 95 points, about one quarter of 1% gain. again the real laggard so far if you will 44,514 is the level there. that's about by the way a percent and a half just away from record highs that we are seeing in that index. overall the broader s&p 500

large cap is trading up by around. we'll call it about 35 points 6029 is the level there also roughly about a percent and a half below its record levels. now it's also kind of back there right above its 50 day moving average or medium term trend line. the tech heavy nasdaq composite index is the leader, up around one full percent. that's 206 points to 19,598. also sitting right at around its 50 day moving average. and it's roughly you can see there 3% below record high levels. as for what's driving the action, it's that mega cap tech trade and the media trade that's powering gains. alphabet right now shaking off. you can see there some of the concerns over chinese regulators opening up an inquiry into alleged antitrust violations, seemingly all part of that china retaliation against u.s. tariffs. it reports earnings by the way later on today amazon let's cycle there. reports on thursday as well. those shares are up about 1.5%. you can see they're also moving higher. and by the way netflix

and ibm also in focus. now what's the thing about each of those four stocks that we are talking about. they are among the 17 s&p 500 members that hit record highs at some point today. and we'll cap it off, as kelly mentioned with a look, it's possibly the biggest draw river of tech sentiment today. and that's the data around palantir up 21% $101 and change surging on the heels of a better than expected quarterly earnings report. robust future guidance. we're showing you what the stock has done since its september 2020 ipo, up 1,300%. back then it was worth $16 billion. today it's worth closer to $232 billion which by the way kelly puts it about 10 to $15 billion away from tech services giants like accenture ibm and cisco systems. so keep an eye on palantir megacap in and of its own right. right now that's it from thecube i will send things back over to you very much. >> dom, come on over here. grab some hot.

>> cocoa and. >> warm up. >> palantir is where. >> palantir, i. >> should say, is where. >> we begin today. with the shares soaring. >> once. >> again. >> dan ives over at wedbush says they're playing chess in the ai arms race. >> while others are just. >> playing checkers. but my next. >> guest worries their. >> margins will. >> ultimately be capped. >> let's bring in kim forrest, the chief investment officer at boka capital partners. kim. this stock i mean, alex on the call last night was in rare form, basically saying to the retail investors, you're welcome, we're doing it. come on in. what note. >> of caution did you want. >> to add here? well, let me let. me not start. >> off on the negative. >> let me. >> start off. >> on. >> the positive. >> this is exactly. >> the kind of company. >> i really. >> really want. >> to succeed. >> it is. >> more in my. model of. >> what i. call small ai. >> which is. >> not general. >> or, you know, large. >> language model, kind of one. >> ring to rule them. >> all. solution. >> right. that these. are tailored. solutions using. >> ai in great places. >> but i. >> have some cautionary notes

here. >> firstly. >> everybody's saying, oh. >> look at this. >> this is. >> a new. >> enterprise company. >> but if. >> you look at enterprise software. >> company. >> but if you look at the financials, they don't. >> look anything like. >> an. >> enterprise software. >> company until. >> you get. >> to taking out. >> the. >> cost of. shares that they're. >> giving away. >> to. >> their employees. and, and. >> then it looks like. >> a software company. >> so what am i saying by this? >> there's a ton of people that make this happen. >> and that is. >> more of a services company. >> so the second thing. >> is i. >> think it's. >> great that they're bringing in. >> more commercial. >> accounts, not government accounts. having been. >> a ai software. developer that had. >> some experience. >> in government contracting. >> your margins are. really compressed. >> in that world. >> you are not. >> allowed to. >> get what you. >> would get. out in the world. >> so these are notes. >> of. caution that i. >> have for investors in palantir.

>> and let. >> me just dig into. >> them for a. >> second and then we can move on. but i think on a day like. >> this where. >> suddenly palantir is the new nvidia in terms of. >> the public. >> interest. >> it's important to. >> kind of highlight two of these things. >> the stock based comp and their expense on it is getting a. >> lot of attention. >> and there are some going. >> so far as to suggest. >> that. >> they're enticing and. retail investors to. >> offload more shares onto them in. >> order to kind of keep this going with the amount. >> of stock based comp. >> that they're. >> that they're paying out. >> i don't know if anybody knows for. >> sure whether there's. >> something nefarious. >> going on with that. >> but. >> you think it's just a sign that it's not a highly. >> efficient software business. >> that's exactly it. >> and if you are. >> a retail. >> person. >> it behooves you to sit down. >> and look at financials. >> don't just. >> go with the. >> story. >> the vibe. >> the whatever. >> you want to. >> call it. >> this was. >> a hallmark of. >> companies that. >> kind of. >> well, disappointed. >> we'll just say in. the.com era because again, they were. >> reporting. >> if you. >> overlooked our stock based. >> compensation. >> we're a really great.

>> company. >> and i don't think anybody. >> should do that. >> just straight up and nefarious. >> i don't know. >> i'm just. >> not that. >> kind of person. >> i'm i. >> can't imagine. >> anybody trying to, you know. do something like that to. >> an investor. >> yeah. no, it's more just kind of again, you almost in the, in these. >> cases want to separate the. >> fundamental story may be fabulous. >> look what. >> palantir has done for corporate america. >> by all accounts. >> is exciting and extraordinary. and they. >> are early. >> and very. >> successful in kind of deploying ai. >> the other piece of this, though, is. >> kind of a fundamental point. >> that. >> i. >> just wanted. >> you to. >> kind of dwell. >> on for a second, which. >> is a. >> lot of people love the fact that they do a lot of business with the government, because it seems. to kind of. >> lock in customers. >> right? >> that's why buffett likes utilities. >> they're kind. >> of a monopoly. but you think there is a little bit, maybe, that. >> they're giving. >> up to the. upside by relying. >> too much. >> if they end. >> up relying. >> too much on the government partner instead of the private sector. >> one well. >> i think you have to dance with. >> the one.

>> that brung you. the government was. >> the first people that funded. >> a. >> lot of the stuff that they were doing. and i think. >> that's right. >> and again. >> i worked. >> at. a company. >> that was. >> briefly public. >> and half of our. >> business was. >> government and. >> half. >> of it was. >> commercial, as. >> we would call it. >> and i. >> was built out. probably like. 5 or. >> 6. >> times higher on the commercial side. >> so those are dollars that. >> are just never. >> going to be. >> gotten by. >> the investor with. >> this heavy reliance. on government contracting. >> and yes, it's. >> stable. it's wonderful. >> but i. >> think it really. >> limits your upside with respect to, you know. returning shareholder value. >> and we will stop picking on them. >> but i. >> think they can handle it. >> they're up. >> 300%. >> as we said over the past. >> six months. let me ask you about amd, which is the stock you've. >> long liked. >> although the. performance has left. >> a. >> lot of investors frustrated. i think they report. >> tomorrow with. >> all of this deep sea. >> going on. with the poor performance of chip stocks lately, what would you tell. investors to be on the lookout. >> for there? >> well.

>> two things. first of all, i think they. >> are gaining. >> on intel. >> so those are. >> some markers. >> that we would. >> like to. >> to watch very closely. and why do we care. >> well. >> spending on regular. >> pcs and. servers and that kind of stuff. >> not in the. >> ai realm. >> but. >> just regular data. >> centers comes. >> and goes in cycles. >> so you have. >> to. >> be patient and wait. >> i think a lot of it dollars. >> are going into. >> more ai oriented expenditures. >> and probably. >> sucking all the air out of regular computing. >> whatever that looks like. >> so be. a patient investor. and you'll probably get rewarded. the other. >> thing is. >> they do have a tolerable a better than. tolerable product for ai because they've long been a provider for gpus. they were always the number two person. to nvidia. and sometimes their chip beat them. >> for. >> you know, a minute and a half. >> for speed. >> and then. nvidia came. back and.

>> applied itself and. >> once again was the leader. so it's not. >> as. >> if the world. >> that nvidia is. >> operating in is a complete new business for amd. >> so they've got a shot there to develop those products. >> all right. >> and we'll. >> let you go with a final. >> comment about markets. >> overall we've had a lot of. >> tariff headlines to contend with. we have now. actual chinese tariffs to sort of think about we've had the deep sea developments. >> what do you what's. >> kind of your parting. >> thought or advice here. >> well i think markets really. >> don't take my dad's advice, which is don't. >> cry until. >> you're hurt. we cry immediately on any kind of. >> like bad. >> news. >> which i get in the short term. but being a patient investor, buying good. >> companies and. >> knowing what. >> is in your portfolio and. >> why are all really. >> important, and. it allows you not. >> to get. whipsawed by like the last 48 hours. >> all right. we will hold our tears. >> hold your beer i think was the.

>> yeah. kim. >> thanks very much. >> appreciate it. today. >> that's right. kim forrest. >> from boka capital partners. dom mentioned it at the top, but. alphabet is also hitting a record. >> high today. and they report. >> earnings after the bell, despite being. somewhat in. china's crosshairs today as well. >> investors want an. >> update on. >> ai plans. >> as the race for. >> the best. >> product rapidly. >> takes shape. deirdre bosa has more for us. deirdre. >> what are you watching? >> so as usual kelly, there is a lot of noise around alphabet. it's all about its ai edge as you correctly said. but these competing themes, especially regulation, threaten to take the focus away from that most important battle overnight a new monopoly probe in china, even if that doesn't amount to much, add it to the list of lawsuits and investigations happening at home and abroad. in europe, google's bigger uphill ai battle. on paper, the company has everything it needs to succeed distribution, cutting edge technology, top tier talent and deep pockets. but ai dominance. it's not just about capability, it's about adoption. and google has always struggled to get

people to actually. use its model, even the consumer facing versions of it. as of this morning, deep sea still holds the number one spot in the app store. chatgpt is second. gemini doesn't even break the top ten at number 16. and so the mission this year is simple ceo sundar pichai. he wants half a billion people using gemini by the end of 2025. as for capex or ai spending, kelly, this is probably the biggest question for megacap ai players in a post deep tech landscape. unlikely alphabet will pull back on any of those spending plans because the race has only intensified, and that will put pressure on other parts of the business. search, ads and cloud to really perform and get back to that ai story. >> yeah, and. >> i've used a gemini. >> i think. we pay. it's like 20. >> bucks. >> a month. >> you get. >> gemini deep research. but didn't. openai we listen? >> is it not fun. >> to experiment. >> with all. >> this stuff? >> like i'm willing to throw a. >> few bucks for it? yeah. i

mean. >> have you used the deep research one? >> it's on openai. >> well, okay. >> so that's what you're referring to. >> that's where i'm going. okay. so the. >> gemini deep research, if people. >> haven't used it is a fundamentally. >> different product than the other ai. >> tools out there. you type. >> in. >> a query and it will write you a research paper. >> so for instance, the other day i was asking something about the 1970s. i was basically like, tell me the story. like what happened? and it checks 50 sources. it takes like five minutes. and it writes you a research paper. now that's not everyone's cup of tea, but it's pretty powerful. >> did openai. just launch. >> the same thing? >> yeah. and you find it to be different. not as useful. no. >> so gemini deep research. >> mode. >> is a differentiated product, i would argue. but i'm curious because i just saw some headlines of people looking, did openai just launch a very similar thing? >> yes. very similar. right. it basically crawls the web and gives you a concise research report very similar to what you're talking about. but kelly, you are one on the way to that. half a billion users for gemini. the company will be happy to hear. i think it's just they've

had a harder time getting people to adopt it. remember there was also the rebrand. there was some sort of kind of false starts. remember it was called bard. so i think part of it's a branding thing. but i mean, it's so ironic because google has been ahead on so many fronts, right? i will be honest, i didn't even know that they had that deep research project or feature. rather, i know openai just came with came out with theirs. and that's maybe the problem. like there's been so much more publicity usage chatter about openai's feature here in tech and silicon valley than there has google. and that is really part of the problem. >> yeah, and i'm not saying. >> i'm going. >> to stick with it, you know, after you use it for a little while, i'm like, you. >> know what? >> i think it's a little. >> shorter and quicker to just use the, the. the summary. >> but a lot of reading. >> it's fun. >> to tinker with. >> kelly. have you tried have you tried deep seeks reasoning model? >> i don't think i've used. >> deep seek at all. >> okay, that one is really fun, very different, but it basically tells you how it's working through a question. and i find that to be really fascinating,

like a delightful experience to hear how the ai is thinking through things. >> what platform. >> do you use it on? >> i use it on my desktop and on my app. i downloaded the app, but i mean, you can also use it on perplexity if you're worried about. >> i'm a. >> little. >> worried your data going back to china. so use it on perplexity. >> all right, all right, all right. i'll check. >> it out. deirdre. >> thank you as always. >> appreciate it. >> deirdre bosa let's get to the trade. >> on. >> alphabet which is stock number one in today's earnings exchange. >> jeff kilburg is a cnbc. >> contributor. >> founder and ceo of. >> jm financial. jeff kind of quietly at. >> all time highs here. google has been. >> so what do you do with it? >> well. >> kelly, i know you guys are talking a lot about google alphabet and also the competitor deep sync, but i'm more focused on deep dish as it is lunchtime. but what we're doing here with google at. >> an all time high. >> to your point, 52 week high is off about $2. you still have to own it. it's a workhorse. i know it's not the r i darling that we want, and we're going to be looking for more gemini conversations on it. but look what it's done in cloud. we have expectations for this earnings season to report that they had

another 33% increase in revenue just on their cloud. so when you look at 2023 it was up 58% last year. in 2024 it was up 36%. we do believe it has the ability to move higher, but i think it is susceptible and vulnerable to the global macro vulnerability. so i want to be a buyer here more at its 50 day moving average on a 189. so we just recently we own this the essential 40 portfolio. we just reweighted it. so we took our profits from 23 and 24. >> and. >> we reweighted. so we still own it. we're long it we believe in it, kelly. but we do think it's susceptible to this mag seven revaluation. >> very interesting. okay. >> let's move. >> along then to one very. >> different i mean it's a health. >> care name which. >> you know. >> i mean it's. >> up 11% year to date as health care has kind. >> of had this little renaissance. >> but what are you. >> watching for on. >> the earnings. >> and do you like. >> the stock. >> well i do like amgen. and but you're absolutely right. when you talk about an s&p 500 sector let's look at xlvi. it is the best sector year to date. but on

a one year perspective, healthcare has been just absolutely horrible. it's been a disaster. and that's been a lot of fear and expectations of what rfk jr may be doing. if he does get confirmed, which i think is coming here shortly. so it's interesting to see amgen, which is a massive market cap, $155 billion company. it has not been well performed when you compare it to vertex or gilead. so i think it has the ability as a laggard to be a buyer here. and actually, if you look at it's 15% off, its all time high. kelly. and i think if we get any momentum continue momentum in healthcare, you're going to see the laggards be bought. because if you're owning xlvi. >> it's. >> very hard to see that market move back higher. you have to be a stock picker. >> in healthcare. >> still, it's odd. >> that we're more excited about amgen than alphabet today, but. >> i think. >> it's an important sign of the times. >> it is. i think it's the rotation trade, right. you have to understand what sectors are in favor, what sectors are not. we all know that google has been the workhorse and one of the workhorses in the mag. seven. >> can i ask you a quick side note before we hit the last stock about palantir, which.

>> you know, people didn't. >> like hearing. >> the criticism. >> from kim there just. >> a few moments. >> ago, is that. >> a stock you'd be. >> eager to jump in and follow? >> i've been eager and following since his ipo. i've been trading in and out of the stock. don't own it going into earnings, but it's been a phenomenal move higher. but i think you have to consider what they're doing. and their creativity i think is an input in an investment thesis moving forward. so palantir is reshaping a lot of the way investment themes are coming out. and that's going to be change from year to year. so palantir is very important to monitor, and i think you have to own it at some point. but if you missed out on this, i have a hard time buying it above $100. kelly. >> all right. all right. let's go. >> back. along to chipotle then, which is up. >> 5% to lunch. >> yeah that's right. under the new ceo it's actually up. >> about 5%. >> although their old one. >> brian niccol who's over. >> at starbucks. >> now those shares. >> are hitting a 52. >> week. >> high today. when it comes to chipotle analysts like the new menu offerings. >> they say some. >> slowing comps at year end could be due to holiday and weather shifts. not weakening underlying demand. what do you do with this one? >> well, i think you have to be

patient here. i want to be waiting to buy, but i think you buy this. this is a fast food option that's evolved over the last couple of years, and it's just a healthier choice when you think about team kilburg, where are we going to pick up a quick meal? chipotle is high on that list, kelly. so i think if you look technically right now at 69, 59, $60 and $59 respectively, it's the 50 day moving average. so it's been kind of stagnant or coiled, if you will. so there's an opportunity if they reveal consumer strength, if they reveal same store growth, that's going to be better than expectations. you'll see a pop up. but i think you have the opportunity to buy it a little bit lower because it, again, is vulnerable to that global macro consumer strength type of consideration. as we move through all of the headlines that continue to come out on tariffs and whatnot. >> we are also there. >> all the time. >> so it's hard for me. >> to get. >> too bearish on. >> at this point jeff thanks. appreciate it today. >> you bet. >> jeff kilburg. >> jm financial. >> coming up china. retaliating against trump's tariffs this time targeting coal and natural gas. we'll get a live report from beijing. >> and tackle. >> the controversial.

>> idea to establish. >> an american sovereign wealth fund. plus, last. >> year, more. >> than a dozen. >> companies announced stock splits. >> that was the most in. >> a decade, actually. so who's next on the watch list? we'll ask. >> bank of america's stock split guru ahead. we're back after this. >> this is the exchange on cnbc. tech check is sponsored by comcast business. powering possibilities. >> in the all new infiniti qx80. the party in the back doesn't stop. >> hi, frank. >> hey, goldie. >> i'm looking for. >> those reports from yesterday. >> they're right on your desk, frank. >> for the business in the front. experience more in. >> the. >> all. new three row. infiniti qx80. >> want the fastest. >> working glp one for half the price? >> row now. >> offers fda approved weight loss injections. cheaper with results. you can see. >> faster. >> lose 15% of your weight with >> lose 15% of your weight with a (tony hawk) skating for over 45 years has taken a toll on my body. i take qunol turmeric because it helps

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>> welcome back. it's been a whipsaw week. >> for chinese. >> equities, seeing. >> a. >> sharp drop. last friday. >> on president trump's. >> tariff threats, then selling. >> off yesterday when only. >> mexico and. >> canada got a tariff reprieve. but today they're in the green. >> in fact, major etfs are having their best. >> day since early. >> december as china retaliates with additional. >> tariffs on american energy. >> eunice yoon is live in beijing with the very latest. eunice, what can you tell us? >> well, kelly, china took a very different approach. compared to canada or mexico, mainly because the chinese wouldn't want to be in a position where they would have president xi jinping look subordinate to president. >> trump. >> or worse yet, from beijing's perspective, appear humiliated by a western power. so the government here issued several. >> different countermeasures. >> 10 to 15% tariffs on energy imports, farm gear and trucks. >> export curbs on tungsten. >> and other rare metals. an

antitrust probe into google, and then blacklisting pvh, as well as the genetics company illumina. now, on the whole, the measures don't appear to be significantly damaging. but and one interesting point is that the chinese government widened the scope of retaliatory measures, including singling out individual u.s. companies. but i think on the whole, what we're seeing here is beijing looking to gain leverage on president. trump in any wider discussion in if there is indeed a broader economic deal. >> eunice. >> we're looking. >> there at some. >> of the measures that u.s. companies. >> and energy in. >> particular. >> should expect. >> where does. >> this go from here? well, president trump has indicated that he would be speaking with president xi in the next couple of days or so. so that's something that people are watching. a lot of people here are wondering if this is going

to lead to some bigger deal. the chinese have indicated. that they would want to see. export controls lifted. they'd want to see tariffs removed. they would hope to see restrictions also eliminated. for chinese companies. but of course, the big question is. what the chinese would be willing to offer. and so would you see them offer something that maybe might be more palatable to president trump? say, for example, a pledge for cracking down on fentanyl? of course, we've seen them pledge that time and again. and i think that one of the big questions is whether or not we would see the chinese offer up anything that that washington has wanted traditionally and over many years. such as a. more level playing field, for example, for american companies here in china. >> all right. >> eunice, thanks. >> appreciate it. tonight. >> eunice yoon, tonight in beijing anyway. >> my next guest warns. >> that hitting. >> china with. >> a 10%. levy doesn't make sense. if bigger. >> tariffs on. >> mexico and canada are. >> still on the table. but are

they? >> joining me now is derek scissors. >> with aei. >> i've been. >> i've been waiting and thinking derek what what your take. >> is. >> going to be on all of this because i can't even tell whether we. should be thinking. >> about tariffs on. >> mexico and canada anymore. >> i think we have to. >> i think the. >> president could. >> have. >> kicked this four. months down the road. >> he has the april 1st, april. >> fool's day trade studies scheduled. you could have easily pushed this off longer. >> i think he only wanted. >> to push it off. >> for a month because. he's not satisfied with the current situation. so to be clear, i think tariffs on. >> canada are insane. >> there's no justification. >> for them. at all. i don't. >> think tariffs are the. >> right response. >> to. >> a real problem with the. >> mexican border, but. >> just because that's the reality of things doesn't mean that we're actually off the hook. >> i don't think. >> you can. >> rule out a tariff. problem with canada and mexico in march. >> and as you said, if that's the case. >> then the. >> 10% tariff on china doesn't matter. >> anymore because. >> we've. >> degraded the. competitiveness of our. >> two largest trade partners. >> yeah. no. >> i think you've been quite. >> quite sort of eloquent on

that point. >> but who says. >> tariffs against. >> canada are ever coming? >> i'm beginning to think this is like i'm just threatened. tariffs. >> you can get whatever you want. >> and they're never tariffs are. >> never going to happen. >> well that is possible. but of course he didn't. >> get whatever he wanted both. >> in the. >> canada and. >> the mexico cases. >> and the. >> canada case in. my mind again is worse. >> it was. >> just promises of. >> stuff they've done before. i mean, the mexicans. >> promised. >> to move troops to the border in 2019. >> the canadians just. >> repeated something they said in december. >> so it. >> is possible. >> that this is just performative. >> i do think. >> it could end up being. >> performative because trump's real. >> target is. >> europe rather. >> than china. >> but i don't think we can. >> rule this. >> out, because. >> if he wanted to kick. the can down the road. >> and take the. >> spotlight off canada and mexico. >> we could. >> be talking. >> about a. >> may revisit rather than a. >> march revisit. >> i'm glad you. >> brought up europe because i. didn't want to. >> because again. >> i'm not sure. >> if we're going to go through this kind of performative exercise of we. >> might do tariffs. >> and here's the tariff exposed. >> companies and. >> then all. >> of which is going to be for

naught. >> but as far. >> as wall street is concerned, but out. >> in the real world. >> maybe we get some concessions. >> on defense. >> or what have you. how should we be thinking. >> through. >> what could happen with europe and the uk? >> well, i. >> would i would split europe from the. >> uk in the. >> sense that for. >> whatever it's. >> worth, you know, something that happened six months ago. >> doesn't matter anymore. >> the trump. >> campaign advisers. >> were very. >> clear about they don't like. >> our trade. >> relationship with europe. >> they don't like our economic relationship. >> with europe broadly. >> european antitrust. >> investigations being a. >> factor in that. >> so i don't. >> think. >> this is. >> canada where. >> the justification looks completely made up. the mexican justification. >> is largely non-economic. >> i think we. >> have a they have a. >> serious problem with europe. that means. >> okay, we're going to go through a bunch. >> of chaos. >> but probably on. >> the other side, we're not. >> going to. >> get. >> canada, mexico, tariffs. >> and probably on the other side we are going to get. >> europe tariffs. >> why would. >> we get europe tariffs. >> so if we thought that their regulatory policy was. >> was bad. >> and i mean. >> if you're facebook which. >> sounds like it. >> might be moving.

>> in this direction if. you're ex, which is constantly in the crosshairs. of officials threatening to shut it down, why not just say, fine, we'll shut it down? isn't that punishment enough? >> i don't. >> think. >> the president sees it that way at all. he has some. >> some very amusing. >> remarks about european trade. >> policy being just as bad as china. >> only europe is. >> smaller. which is two reasons for him to take on europe. he's angry at. >> them. >> and they're smaller than china. i'm not saying that's accurate. i'm saying that's his view. >> and he thinks tariffs are the solution to everything. i just apply tariffs. >> and there'll be less. >> migration across the mexican border. so obviously if i apply tariffs you'll. >> do what we want. >> on your regulatory policy. >> well interestingly they are kind of moving in that direction don't you think when you hear those comments from christine lagarde and that big report from draghi. >> yeah, i. >> think that's right. >> i do wonder. >> when. >> you're dealing with the eu. >> and this. >> is why i separated the eu from the uk. >> you may. >> not. >> like if you're president. >> trump you don't like. >> trudeau, but. >> it's one. >> person and he'll be. >> replaced soon. >> and there's one. >> person in. mexico and there's one person in the uk. you meet

with the eu. >> and they. >> say. >> well, this is our offer, but we're not really sure we have it and we'll have to get back to you. >> and we don't know if we can respond to what you. >> want in less. >> than three years. >> that's where i think the eu, us. >> negotiations are. >> in peril. the eu doesn't. >> really have the capacity to act quickly the way trump wants. >> that's a great point for. >> anyone who's ever. >> covered the eu. they're very. familiar with what you're saying. >> okay, quick. >> final question on the sovereign. >> wealth fund. i'm just curious what you think of it. >> i mean, i've always looked. >> at norway and. >> thought. >> why can't we have that? we have tons of oil revenue. why can't we just. use that. >> kind of put it. >> invest it, create a wealth account. and i guess. what people's problems are is, well. >> what. >> do you do with it? >> well, right. >> there's the problem of where. >> you get the. >> money. >> because norway. >> had that sovereign. wealth fund because they were running huge trade surpluses, bringing in foreign exchange, as the president. knows very well, we run. >> huge trade deficits. >> so we don't bring any. >> foreign exchange. >> so are you going to borrow the money? >> are you going. >> to take it from taxpayers? >> that's question. number one. we don't have the sovereign

wealth fund. route that norway. >> and others took. and then question two, which we haven't even gotten. >> to yet. >> is what's the purpose of this? >> just to have one so. >> that, you know. >> we're big, we have a sovereign. wealth fund to. the big danger line there. is there are sovereign wealth funds. >> for example. >> in china that buy domestic assets. >> we really. >> don't want a us sovereign wealth fund buying domestic assets. it opens the door for a lot. >> of bad behavior. >> they haven't said that. the first. >> question is where we get the. >> money, but. >> down the line, that would. >> be my big concern. >> couldn't we just use it? this would be like kelly's ideal world. >> you somehow. >> raised. >> the funds. from like royalties on on something you don't want. maybe that's fossil fuels, whatever, and. a small royalty, but it compounds over time. and then that's where you're your next stimulus check comes. >> from, right? >> next time there's an economic downturn, you use the same rule. whatever you want. you say $800. >> to. >> every household. >> from the sovereign wealth fund, not from the taxpayer. >> so i'm. >> going to give you the purest. >> nerd response, which is when. >> you. >> create off budget vehicles, you have a huge budget. >> deficit. >> which you can't you won't solve, you. >> won't address. >> i don't blame president. >> trump for that. >> that's everybody for decades.

>> and then you say, oh. >> but i have. >> this. >> other thing over there. >> that's free money. >> look at what we've done. we've saved so much. >> money over here. >> don't look at the. >> giant budget. >> deficit. >> that looks like a distraction. we have. >> fiscal problems. >> in the country. the sovereign. >> wealth fund is not a solution. >> it actually makes them worse. >> and separating. >> the sovereign wealth fund. >> from. >> the budget is. >> just make believe. >> all right. >> i don't know if that was a nerd answer. >> that was. >> kind of like. >> a. real it was like a. >> kissinger answer. >> but i. >> appreciate it either way. >> derek, thanks very much. good to have you. >> today. derek. scissors with aei. >> morgan stanley is. >> warning clients about the retailers. >> that are least protected from a trade war. it includes. >> names, they say, like. >> wayfair, dollar tree. >> best buy. >> academy. >> sports and outdoors and five below. >> but tariffs. >> aren't the only. retail threat looming and might. >> not even. >> be the biggest one to worry about. we'll speak with one analyst downgrading this name thanks to something investors haven't seen in two years. tweet me if you think. me if you think. >> you know the name it's time. yes, the time has come for a fresh approach to dog food. everyday, more dog people are deciding it's time

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>> now that's better. trey palmer. >> doesn't have a massive. >> call center. >> instead. >> your calls are answered by real people. >> who know you by name. >> and are empowered. >> to help. >> like me. hey, chuck, how are you? what can i do. >> for you? >> welcome back to the exchange. i'm leslie. >> picker with your cnbc. >> news update. a group of nine unnamed fbi agents is suing the justice department in an effort to protect the identities of employees who worked on the january 6th criminal cases. according to the lawsuit filed today, the anonymous group said the public release of the names was to find, identify and fire

them in an act of retribution. the lawsuit was filed just hours before a deadline set by the acting deputy attorney general for the agency to turn over a list of names. the white house has started. to send migrants. >> to the guantanamo. >> bay naval base in cuba. that's according to white house press secretary caroline leavitt. leavitt president trump ordered last week to expand detention operations at the base to hold up to 30,000 detainees. and tiger woods mother, kultida woods, has died. she was a fixture at many of tiger's. biggest events in golf, including woods's win at the. 2019 masters, and the 15 time major champion said she was the driving force in his career. woods shared her passing on social media earlier this morning, but did not give a cause of death. kultida woods was 80 years old. back over to you. leslie. thanks very much. >> leslie picker. >> coming up. >> 2024 saw the most. >> stock splits in over a decade. could any of these high priced names be next? bank of

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>> welcome back to the exchange. this earnings season has revealed some big media moves we're keeping an eye on. fox beating estimates and announcing plans to launch a subscription streaming service by year end. of course, they already have to be, which is a free one. it's going to have the super bowl also for the first time. this just came weeks after dissolving plans to launch sports streaming service venue with warner brothers and disney. fox is about 4% higher today, one of the best in the sector. speaking of disney, they report before the bell tomorrow. those shares are up 18% over the past three months, with j.p. morgan writing that disney plus value is crystallizing for marketers and consumers alike. still, they're all up against juggernaut netflix, which now has more than 300 million subscribers, and the shares are up 15% since earnings just a couple of weeks ago. they're also above $1,000 a share for the first time today. that makes it a prime candidate for a stock split, according to my next guest. and last year, the average stock climbed 17% in the six months after. let's

bring in jared woodard. he's head of the research investment committee at bofa securities. jared, welcome. and since that earnings report, we've been getting a lot of questions about whether a share split should be in the cards for netflix. >> yeah, thanks. i'm glad to be with you. it's an interesting topic because the cynics will tell you that, of course, a company splitting the shares of stock doesn't change the economic fundamentals. and that's true. but i see it a different way. i think stock splits in some ways are a kind of a triumph for democracy, because they make a successful company available to a broader base of shareholders. that's one reason why you've seen companies come back to the market, splitting their shares over the past year at a pace that hasn't been seen before in at least a decade. and as you as you mentioned, historically, when a company has split its shares this way, it's been a big signal of future outperformance. our historical work suggests that the typical company, when it splits its shares, sees a return on the order of 20 to 25% over the next year. that far outpaces the market average, which is more like 12%. >> what about the elephant in

the room, which is nvidia, which split almost at the high last summer? i mean, now, of course it's kind of come some way back, but it didn't enjoy the same kind of boost. and is there any risk that some of the companies now are doing so kind of at these highs? >> it's never a guarantee. of course you can have big volatility in either direction. what we found is that whatever the short term noise might be, historically, stock splits are a sign of strength for a company. a firm has done well, their share price has risen and in some cases maybe to such a high price that it's out of reach for a lot of ordinary investors. and as a signal that they care about those investors, companies often will reduce the share price through a split, signaling their own strength and good economic fundamentals, and carrying through on that momentum in the quarters to come. i think that's probably going to be true historically, given the success we're seeing in a number of firms across the market today. we found something like 40 different companies in the s&p 500 with share prices above $500. a lot of candidates who could split their shares in the year ahead. >> right. in fact, i'm looking

at some of them. i mean, everything from eli lilly to meta, which has been, you know, a big headline today. what do you think companies are waiting for when they try to figure out how to how to time and announce a split? >> well, i think they're looking to have a big impact. they want to do it at a time when the news is positive. otherwise, when you look at that list, whether it's netflix or costco or or o'reilly automotive, these are firms that have had above average market returns. in those cases, those names are all berated by my colleagues at bofa research. and historically, i think it's been a signal of strength that firms use to tell shareholders. it's not just that our fundamentals are strong, but we want broad participation from the investor base. and so the idea is to time those announcements in a way that can have the greatest impact for the broader investing public. >> quick final question. as this becomes kind of more and more well known and understood, should someone just hold all of these names going well, okay, the potential for a split maybe gives me some upside over the next 12 months, and then it becomes like a buy the rumor,

sell the fact. >> you never know in markets how quickly some signal is going to be completely incorporated into a price. but one interesting fact from the historical work that we've done on this topic is that the distribution of returns historically has been really heavily skewed to the upside. of course you can. you never know the future with any individual company. there's downside and upside to be had. but in the past, the companies that have split haven't just seen above average returns. there have been a lot of companies that were having such strong fundamentals that when they split their shares, it was a time when they were seeing profound growth. and so the returns were abnormally high in the distribution, broader across the market. it's a really interesting phenomenon. >> yeah, no. and for a while it was quiet. you know, everyone seemed to be $1,000 stock in the 20 tens. and then last year it looks like we kind of turned a corner on that. so we'll see if netflix is next. jared. thanks. >> thanks a lot. >> jared woodard joining from bofa securities. still to come, shares of paypal down 10% on stronger than expected results. and a $15 billion stock buyback sounds positive, but overall

transactions fell by more than 2.5% year on year and guidance was tepid. flat to low single digit. total purchase volume paypal now on track for its worst day in nearly a year. we're back after this. >> individually, each of us is great, but from here you can see we're one big team. at atlassian, we believe real progress takes all of us working together on new sources of energy, cars that drive to the future, even pizza deliveries. together, we can go beyond where we've ever been collaborating from anywhere on everything. atlassian makes software for teams to do what is impossible alone. >> most power players on wall street rate nvidia a strong buy today. yet why, then, are so many legendary investors quietly ignoring that advice and instead selling the stock hand over fist? every billionaire on your screen has recently sold nvidia.

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today. >> alphabet. earnings after the bell. breaking down the numbers. the latest on their ai strategy and capital expenditures. john fort morgan brennan closing bell overtime today for eastern. cnbc. >> welcome back to the exchange. we're seeing a slight rally across the board with the dow up 58. the s&p up half a percent. and a more sizable and significant one in the nasdaq which is up 1% today. we talked about palantir's huge move. meta continues to power higher. we'll have more on that next hour. 451 on the ten year as well. check this out. for one you might not have seen coming. the private prison stocks are lower after el salvador's president offered to jail undocumented immigrants there and possibly u.s. criminals for a fee. that was big news overnight, of course, but it caused a sell off for these names like geo group and corecivic, the private prison stocks that had rallied sharply after the election. and this all is somewhat reminiscent of what we saw in 2016. they saw big moves after the election before

moving lower under trump's first term, and the shares are now on track to post a third straight losing week. elsewhere, estee lauder is the worst name in the s&p, having its worst day since october after guidance came in below expectations. another 14% drop for el. they're expanding. they're expanding their restructuring plan and planning to cut 7000 jobs as a result of demand weakness in asia, specifically, airports and travel destinations in korea and china. a real unwind of one of the best stocks of last decade. and still to come, here's one final look at our mystery chart. this discretionary name up 12% in the past three months. but jefferies sees trouble on the horizon. and it's not because of tariffs. we will reveal the name and the headwinds next. and don't miss a first on cnbc interview with the white house ai and crypto czar david sacks. he will join closing bell he will join closing bell overtime today at 4 p.m. (vo) what does it mean to be rich? maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic.

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problem if and when consumers cut back on spending. and those concerns lead them to downgrade. ollie's today the bargain outlet, although they still see some bright spots out there. joining us now is randy konik, lifestyle and growth platforms analyst at jefferies. randy, you know, as a as an ardent follower of economic indicators, we never liked it when the inventory to sales ratio was moving up. so tell me what's going on here from the big picture point of view. >> yeah. look we all know that the consumer is very strong. we've actually had a very strong consumer for the last two years. and companies are very simple in retail. if you have a good year last year, your order inventory is up. if you have another good year, you keep raising those inventories further and further. so what we noticed about a quarter ago is that inventories and consumer discretionary are up for the first time in two and a half years. better still or more concerning, is that when you plot inventory growth and you look at it relative to sales growth, inventory growth is at its narrowest margin to sales growth in about two and a half years. in fact, we're about to

see inventories cross over sales growth, meaning inventories outpace sales for the first time in a number of years, which is concerning for go forward gross margins going into the rest of 2025. >> and the traditional kind of theory behind this is, you know, when you're producing inventories, you get the manufacturing boost. you know, it's when that dries up and starts to go the other way. then you have to have manufacturers retrenching, and it kind of reverberates back through the supply chain. is it possible inventories are up because people were front loading for tariffs? >> well look the biggest issue is in the apparel space and the apparel space. you don't really front load inventories that you need nine months from now right. so there's a long lead time in the in the apparel space. so we don't think that's a tariff related issue at all. it's really simple. it's the consumer has been strong. companies are ordering up. and now if the consumer slows if at all you're going to see you know inventories being, you know, held for sale promotions will rise and then gross margins will fall going forward. >> you have really good names in

here. so i'm only going to ask one more big question. i'll ask about the names. but what if sales don't slow? i mean, what if it's possible that we just keep powering forward? there's nothing to worry about. >> well, look, there's nothing to worry about from a perspective that could happen. however, when you look at the valuations of a lot of these names in consumer discretionary, they're actually fairly high. and the expectations are very elevated. so when you think about the expectations bar being high, comparisons being difficult, valuations being excessive in some respects it's going to be hard to kind of repeat the great performance of retailers for 2025. after a strong 2023 and 2024. >> and to that point, you say ollie's was a peak margin, high valuation, all time high stock that you downgraded some concerns about inventory levels there. you're buying five five below, which was kind of a problem stock last year. but now you think that you know it's priced in. it's fixing itself. you're also selling lululemon. >> yeah. look on on five below. it's a self-help story. the cool thing about five below is there's no real competitor to

five below. and the issues at five below in 2024 were self contained. those issues are being corrected from a merchandizing standpoint. and then valuation is well below peak and so are margins. so that provides a self-help opportunity to get that stock moving in the right direction in 2025. as it pertains to lululemon. it was a massive underperformer in 2024, although it came back up dramatically off its lows. we think the euphoria is setting back in with this stock into 2025 on a on a prospect of a turnaround, but we think that's fleeting in the sense that lululemon has a lot of competition coming its way, not just now, but over the next few years. combined with it's a very large business, so it's going to be very hard to grow that large business going forward, along with some other headwinds around peak gross margins and then the high valuation as well. so we'd be selling that stock today. >> you also are lowering your estimates on kohl's where obviously that's been a tough story. they're doing the layoffs. they have margin pressure quickly finally on ollie's then is are they one of

the companies where you see inventories kind of troublingly high or is it more valuation case? >> well, ollie's is purely a valuation call here. we don't want to get too greedy with our a lot of our stock calls. the stock has run dramatically. valuation got above tjx. so we just wanted to take some chips off the table with ollie's good company just an expensive stock. we want to kind of pull back on our buy ratings right now. >> nobody out does tjx, nobody tjx and costco i mean for 17 years i think people have been bullish on them. and that's been correct. so yeah, randy, thanks for your time. appreciate it today. >> thanks for. >> having me. randy konig joining us from jefferies. and that's it for the exchange. i'll join brian sullivan for power lunch right after this quick break. don't go anywhere. do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. call coventry direct to learn more. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. our

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world's largest portfolios for decades. start growing your real estate portfolio today with the fundrise flagship fund. >> welcome to power lunch. i'm kelly evans along with bryan sullivan. tariff talk has subsided. mexico and canada get a delay. china hitting back but not too hard. and tech is leading the way. that was almost a poem, wasn't it? the nasdaq gaining more than 1% leading the way. brian. >> but kelly some big pharma and makeup. oh my slamming investor money. look at merck down almost 10% on new concerns around china. and estee lauder also crushed because of china and more job cuts. they're on the way. >> 7000, in fact. and palantir is up more than 20% and on track for a record