earnings, quite a few more companies reporting in this hour this time tomorrow. in the meantime, major averages finished the day at session highs and yields the lowest since december. >> yeah. and on a firm in particular credit and the consumer are going to stand out as a big issue. >> all right. well that does it for us here at overtime. >> fast money starts right now. >> live from the nasdaq. >> market site in the heart. >> of new york city's. >> times square. >> this is fast money. >> here's what's on. >> tap tonight. >> glittering gold. the precious metal hitting. >> all time highs today. >> and the miners. >> are finally coming along for the ride. >> what the moves mean for everything from the metals to crypto to rates and a major ai divergence. shares of google parent alphabet sinking after earnings as meta ekes out its longest winning streak. >> on record. >> what is behind. >> the drastically different fortunes of these tech titans? we'll dig in. plus. >> behind the wheel. >> of ford's latest quarter, the real read on f ty aviation. one top analyst will. >> break. down the numbers. >> for the engine. >> company and tracking the

transports. why? >> the chart master says the group may hit the brakes in the short term. i'm melissa lee, coming to you. >> live. >> from studio. >> b at the nasdaq on the desk tonight. >> tim seymour, steve grasso, carter wirth. >> and guy adami. >> we start off with gold's. record run, the safe haven asset hitting a fresh all time high as. tariffs on china raised the. >> real. >> possibility of a. trade war and higher inflation. gold miners benefiting. >> from the move. >> higher today. the gd etf that tracks the space up more than 20% already this year, more than doubling the metal. and that same pressure, pushing bitcoin even. further below. >> the $100,000 mark. >> so-called digital. >> gold falling. >> victim to investors moving. away from riskier assets. all of these. >> moves coming against. >> an uncertain interest. >> rate backdrop. >> the ten year yield at its lows of the year and down nearly 30 basis points. >> from its january highs. so guy. >> has been pounding. >> the table on gold. as you all know. >> for. >> some time now. here we are. >> yeah tim. >> as well. and we'll both talk about it. but you know it's all time high. miners are starting to participate. you mentioned gdx.

>> i think october. >> traded up. >> to 44. >> i think it takes. >> that out. >> i think. >> miners are starting. >> to catch up and they should be. and listen, central banks. >> have been buying gold. >> hand over fist now for the last three years. that has not abated. and what i've. >> said and what i believe i mean, they're hedging their own ineptitude and they're doing. >> a really good job. and i think. >> gold can continue. >> to go higher. >> you mentioned. rates that that. >> headwind of higher. >> rates has become, if. >> nothing else is abated, maybe a bit of a tailwind. and i think in almost every. environment that we can think of right now, gold sort. >> of works. >> even in a strong dollar environment, which is exactly what we've had. gold has been. >> working well. it's certainly held up. and yeah, if you think about where we were when the dollar was clicking, over 109 gold was even hanging in there. and so yes, totally agree with guy. if you look and i'm curious. >> carter's view. on what i think is the greatest 20 year chart. >> in markets is gold. and so the dynamics around gold though. so on a 20 year basis, you're talking. >> about secular trends. >> you're talking about thematic dynamics. you're talking about just things that have been going

on over time. the fear about the dollar, the fear about. >> the us as a reserve currency. >> hold your breath that that doesn't happen overnight. but i think those are ingredients here. but it's nice to see gold really be gold and prove that bitcoin is not gold because again, they are very different things. on a day when we got a weaker ism, services significantly weaker, and i realize it's just one data point. although the services numbers in january are weaker, you set this up along with what else is going on, and it's a very good backdrop for gold. but i'll get to the economy. i mean, i you know, what would be the biggest issue for the stock market? it would be a growth scare. it wouldn't be, you know. yeah. the fed being not quite as friendly as you want them to be. the fed can't reverse. and the fed's not going to be hiking anytime soon. but but really a growth scare. and when you have a 40 basis point move in the ten year and 22 days year to date, that's something that suddenly now i'd be more fearful of below 375 than above 475. and we've got a big payroll number on friday. so kind of cool to be talking about macro in the middle of earnings season, because i think this stuff's really important. and i think gold is telling you something.

>> well. >> back to gold. and one thing that you said is important i mean obviously it's a great chart. it acts well. and yet it's. >> still so. >> far below its peak adjusted for inflation. that's the key. right. so that while gold is an all time high in real terms, its peak was in 1980. >> when the hunt. >> brothers were cornering the silver market and. gold had the biggest spike of all time. so we would have to still go up another 20% to. equal its all time high, adjusted for inflation. as to rates, i mean, look, it. turns out. >> that it's neither higher, longer. >> nor is it lower for longer. rates are just this. >> permanent for now. three years. >> of this. >> four and a half a little bit higher, a little bit lower. >> and it. might just. >> be why the. >> equity market is held up so well. >> right. geopolitical guy. >> mentioned central banks. >> tim mentioned. >> economy and inflation. >> it's not really an inflation hedge. >> though right. >> because that's what you're saying. what is. >> an inflation hedge. >> bitcoin is an inflation hedge. bitcoin is risk on. gold is risk off. so if you want to play gold you got. >> to play with the leverage. >> bet the miners. you said it 2

to 3 times leverage. we're not there yet. more room in the miners to run. so if you believe gold's going higher then then the miners are going to. >> get you going to get you the leverage. >> and they have that operating. leverage that we've seen, but. >> we haven't seen the. historic leverage that we often do. >> sure. there's been an operating company that you don't have in the commodity, and that's exactly right. but in the event of a market drawdown, the gold miners will go down typically just as much as the s&p, whereas gold will hold up in all 20% plus declines in the history. >> of the market. >> gold has outperformed. >> every single time. >> but the nice thing sorry. yeah. the nice thing about the miners is, is that and i think what's somewhat sustainable about this relative outperformance, because they really have underperformed the move in gold. and typically it's a beta of 2 to 3 depending on where you are. but we've had a couple quarters now of the miners being able to show you two things. one, that the runaway inflation that actually affected their business, they weren't keeping pace also with the price of gold themselves. and so that operational leverage was something that wasn't necessarily there. we've now seen a lot of that come in. we've had two quarters of numbers that for all these guys

is record free cash flow. and then you also have the follow through from the street, who now are upgrading their gold price in their models because they can do. and that's just a mechanical follow through. so i do think miners can continue but they are higher. if the market sells off, miners will underperform the market for sure. >> it's all true. and you know, this. >> is not a. >> political statement. but in. >> the fourth quarter. >> during the election, central banks. accelerated their purchases by 54%. >> year over. >> year, which again, you can say whatever the reason is, i mean, the factually. that's what's going on. and in terms. >> of gold. >> miners. >> not all gold miners are created equal. >> now, you recall last year the a and my clan was. >> tim agnico eagle. it was a good looking piece. >> everybody knows what's in your clan. >> well, not. >> everybody. >> but if you throw. >> up an agnico chart, i mean, that's been on fire. and then to convert, you know, the other side. >> of that is newmont. >> mining, which is a disaster, and even barrick gold a disaster. so i. >> agree, i mean. >> the gdx should play catch up in a major way. if newmont can just get out of their own way, the stock should be at least 50%

higher than it's currently trading. >> not to. >> pick up. >> pick up on what guy said not. >> to get. >> political as well, but when you have sanctions on. >> other countries. >> they're forced. to sell gold. so ukraine. >> russia. >> in the. >> beginning there were. >> sanctions, tremendous. >> worldwide global sanctions on russia. they were forced the oligarchs. >> were forced. to lean on gold. you don't really. >> have that as much anymore. and that's why you see it lifting. >> right? there's some other. >> forces like who is buying gold. last year, turkey was the second biggest net purchaser. >> of who's got runaway. >> inflation typically. >> which makes. >> sense. >> systemic and china huge demand there because there are no alternatives really in china tina. >> gold is. >> the tina trade in china because bond yields are so low. what had. been historically the hedge real. estate that's that's not investable anymore. >> real quick. i mean, if our crack staff. and ek can put up a gold chart over the last year. >> april of last year. >> gold took a. >> leg lower and it was on. >> the. >> back of an announcement that china had stopped buying gold. goldman sachs came out with a note about a month or so ago and said, hey, wait a second,

they're just not buying it in the ways they had before. they're buying it. >> in more. >> opaque word, their word, not mine markets, which is sort of these over-the-counter markets, some of these other things, the chinese have been buying gold now for the last three and a half. >> or four years. >> they will continue to do so because i think they're playing the long game and they're actually winning on the back of that. >> all right, meantime, let's. >> get. >> to a big tech divergence. alphabet dropping more than 7% today after posting disappointing results for its cloud business. meta, on the other hand, closed at a new all time high and recorded. its 13th day of gains, its longest winning streak on record. so will this outperformance last? will the chart master here put. >> out. >> a pairs trade on just these two names today? carter. >> yeah. so obviously. >> these are. >> the two big. >> names in the. >> sector of telecommunications. >> even though. >> they're not the. >> traditional at&t. >> and verizon. >> and we can get. >> right. >> to the charts. but they've been. identical really for quite some time. i think the first chart. >> is a comparative chart. >> and you can see those. >> two lines end. >> up at the exact. >> same point. so that is meta. >> versus alphabet over the past

7 or 8 years. and let's look at them individually. >> and you'll see they have the same. >> general trajectory. so an individual chart of meta you have a bull phase. you have a bear phase. it bottoms and has been moving higher since. take a look at alphabet. >> or google. >> now. the question is and the best way to look at two things is one relative to the other. it's a ratio chart. and we have. >> that here. >> and so this is meta divided by alphabet. and that gives you. >> a relative. >> strength line. and what that's toying with is the prospect of finally breaking out. meta. starting to outperform google for the first time in basically eight years. play for the breakout. that's the conclusion. >> so in other. >> words. >> it's possibly not even begun to really run relative to google. >> that's what. >> that chart would suggest. >> and some of that may be google's doing here too. because again, if you think about what we got last night, this is a question of, you know, all the things that you've pushed back on google over the last 12 months are had plenty of opportunity, were not the reasons why the stock sold off yesterday and why we're talking about this today. and that's what's fascinating. i mean, data center capacity for both

microsoft and google is something that wasn't really the issue we were thinking about. and so it's with some irony that meta with all of their capex spending is rewarded. and this is another issue about, you know, last night i met his earnings. they are actually reaping the benefits of that in terms of their ai strategy. now. >> i think you're going to see the. >> capex spending. >> of. >> 65 billion versus the deep sea doing it for 6 million. whether they can can't doesn't matter. it got the conversation out there. >> i think you're. >> going to see this as. >> it's benefited meta right now. it's going to. >> be a hindrance for them spending. all that. >> money on things that they. >> possibly should not be spending. >> that money on. >> meta or alphabet. >> well, i think both of them. right. >> because alphabet. >> is chasing. alphabet's outdoing. >> meta right now. >> my main concern. >> with. >> meta and alphabet. >> so you don't like either. >> i don't like any i don't like any of the. >> of the mega cap stocks right now. >> i think. i think. >> for me they've. >> ran their they've ran as. >> far as they can. >> i think you need. >> to. have a pullback. >> and meta has a 98% reliance

on ad revenue. >> google has. >> a. >> 78% reliance on ad revenue. >> that to. me leaves. >> a whole heck of a lot of room for. >> for a. >> little bit of a monkey wrench to be. >> thrown in with an economy. >> with spend. >> with any ads. but if you're 98% reliant on. >> it, i get. >> why everyone's pulled. >> up, but. that seems to be putting your chips in all in one basket. and i bet you we have a guest to talk about it. no, that's. >> a fair point. i mean, facebook, i think 75%. >> of. >> their revenue comes from small and medium sized businesses. so if you think again, the employment picture is going to start to wane a little bit. if the economy slows down, you know, they're not insulated from that. without question. the reason why i still like though is, you know, last, it's three quarters in a row now where their operating margins have blown away what the street was looking for on the back of their spend. and they and walmart are the two companies that are seemingly winning in this ai race. >> all right, for more on what is next for meta and alphabet, we do have a guest. evercore isi mark mahaney. mark, always great to see you. >> hey, melissa. >> you know. meta can spend all

its all. >> it wants because. >> it's showing investors a return on that investment. when are we going to. see similar sort of metrics from google to sort of allay investors concerns about this big splurge that they're forecasting for this year? >> well. >> the. >> funny. truth here is that they both have. >> had rising. return on invested capital over the last two years. >> they're both doing about 29%. >> return on invested capital. so if you're looking for roi, there's evidence. i think there's. >> a little. >> this is. just just. >> it's just. >> pr it's you know, meta goes out of its way to. >> give this guidance. you know. >> what's coming. >> i think. >> they they were very clear with the street that they were going to spend aggressively on capex. and so the. the street wasn't as shocked. google is increasing. it's always consistently a black box. >> i give them credit for giving us their capex guidance. >> for the full year. but that was an outlier. and therefore the street was caught, you. >> know, disappointed. >> and by surprise. >> also, the cloud numbers. >> were a little disappointing too. but i do think part of it. is that i think meta actually does a great job of communicating. to investors what its. investments are going. to be. and it's giving you great

revenue growth two x that of google. all that said, right here i probably would prefer google. i just think there's more room for the narrative to change, more room for the multiple to go up. i like both assets, but i have a slight preference for google. >> all right. you know, when mark zuckerberg posted on his blog that they were going to increase capex by more than what the street was expecting, that was a surprise. i mean, that was announcing the news and the reaction was a positive one. and yet alphabet will announce the news and the reaction was a negative one. so in terms of like the pr problem that alphabet or the messaging issue, how does it fix that? because if it's as simple as that. and granted, there's still a doj investigation. i mean, there's some other things going on with the google story that that investors might not like. but when it comes to the message, how do they fix that? because that seems like a highly fixable thing. if the fundamentals are really there. >> well. >> so. >> melissa. >> you're pointing. >> out there's actually some other serious overhangs on google. so there is the doj overhang. there's still this kind of. chatgpt esque ai search to undermine. search meta ai

search. you know, like there's more worries about google's position which it dominates in core search. and maybe that gets disrupted in the future. and then it just. hasn't been as much, i would argue kind of cost discipline out of google, like mark zuckerberg made famous the term. >> you know, year. >> of efficiency. >> and then he turned it into years. >> of efficiency, you know, to his credit. and that's why those margins have gapped up. and you just the potential is there for google to do the same thing. they just. haven't done it. so that's. >> why those three. >> are sort of overhangs on google stock. and that's why it trades 4 or 5 six times at a lower multiple than than than meta. that's why google trades at a lower multiple. but there's the chance. >> for this to. >> turn, because i. >> think the. >> odds of a settlement between google and the doj have gone up materially over the last two months. right or wrong, i think that's absolutely true. the odds have gone up. and then i think google is showing that. >> it's i. >> it's that ai. >> is actually benefiting. >> its search and youtube businesses. those growth rates are stronger than people thought. so they just need to kind of clear out some of the wood in terms of getting this

cloud business to sort of re accelerate. >> a little bit. >> they said it was a supply constraint. if that's true. show it to us and give us some revenue growth acceleration in your cloud segment this next year. >> these things come together. >> and all of a sudden you go from google at 21 times earnings. it gaps up to 25 times earnings. whereas for me meta's at 25 times earnings. maybe it goes a little bit higher but not dramatically higher. >> steve mentioned you know there facebook's reliance on you know certain things. what's the existential risk. is it basically a slowdown in the economy. and again maybe an unemployment rate goes higher and it hurts these small and medium sized businesses. >> yeah. >> yeah, absolutely. >> i mean these companies are so massive in terms of their ad revenue. i think if i added them up, it's 350. >> billion. >> in ad revenue. >> yeah that's cyclical. >> so if you get a downturn in advertising spend both companies will face that. the existential risk for meta though seems to have come and gone. and that was. >> tiktok was. >> going to take over. not that it's not not necessarily that it's going to get banned, but it certainly hasn't. the growth that it had is certainly flatlined to really materially slow down. >> there was. also a lot of.

>> regulatory concerns about about about meta, but i think they've actually pivoted really well. and the company has really matured, you know, in a lot of different ways. so i think those existential risks are. much further behind them. whereas google hasn't really. gone through those yet. you still have this d.o.j. situation and. >> they've been. >> declared a monopolist. who knows what the real remedies are going to be in august. and hopefully. >> there's a settlement. >> before then, but there may not be. and then you still. >> have this a little bit of an. >> overhang on what chatgpt and search agents agentic forces could do to the core google search business. that's still a little bit tbd. >> all right, mark, great to get your take. thank you. >> thanks, melissa. >> mark mahaney evercore isi. so in terms of the gap in multiple, let's say as mark said, you know, google alphabet strikes a deal with the doj and clears that would away. what is that good for in terms of. >> that's that's not enough wood out of the way here. i mean i think this is google's got issues still with dynamics around where they are in their core business. i just think last night too was about cloud, which grew 30% a year for seemingly

for a long time decelerated 5% from third to fourth quarter. i like that the operating margin was up 330 basis points, but the fact that they spent 40%, or they're spending 40% more on capex than the street expected, means that that margin is not going to be so good. so i just think that doj and regulatory stuff is certainly something we should be considered for a lot of mega-cap tech. i don't think it's in the price on any of them, and i don't think that's what's holding back google here. >> all right. coming up earnings season in full swing. and shares of ford are on the move tonight. the details on the numbers from the quarter next. and fti aviation shares rebounding over the last few weeks. and one top analyst says there is a lot more upside to come for the stock. how she says it could put its cash to work and what it could cash to work and what it could mean (man 1) we're standing up for our right to be lazy. (woman 1) by sitting down. (man 2) and reclining back. (man 3) 'cause we work hard and want to relax harder. (man 4) we, the lazy, are taking back lazy... (woman 2) ...on our la-z-boy furniture. (vo) la-z-boy. long live the lazy.

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for free. visit otter.ai or download. >> the app. welcome back to fast money. shares of skyworks tanking more than 20% after hours. the chip maker reporting a bigger than expected drop in quarterly revenue and guiding for a sales decline in the current quarter for its key mobile segment due to weakness in china. the company also announcing a new ceo. well, another earnings alert here on for shares of the automaker tanking despite a beat on the top and bottom line, phil lebeau

spoke with ceo jim farley after results. he joins us now for all the highlights phil. >> and melissa, we'll hear from jim farley. >> in. >> just a bit. the pressure. >> that you're. >> seeing on ford shares it's mainly because of the guidance for 2025. well below what the street was expecting in terms of a performance in the fourth quarter for the three primary businesses. remember, they break it out by internal combustion engines versus evs versus commercial vehicles. and once again. >> it's the ice. >> and. >> the. >> commercial vehicles. >> that are. >> carrying the water for ford. >> profitable. >> solidly profitable ev losses of $1.38 billion. that works out to a little over 37,000 per ev sold in the fourth quarter. but the guidance as you take a look at shares of ford, the guidance is the issue. they're forecasting a profit. >> of 7 to $8.5. >> billion in 2025. they made 10.2. this year. analysts were expecting more. the conference call has just begun. no doubt that will be a focus of questions from analysts. and it does not include. >> it excludes. >> the potential. >> impact of tariffs.

>> which we talked about with jim farley on the. closing bell overtime. and he brought up an interesting point. >> why should they pay a price if canada. >> and mexico are tariffs and there are no tariffs on other countries. >> we want a comprehensive policy not just towards mexico and canada. we understand all the pressures on the border and with drugs. but the reality is, you know, hyundai, kia and toyota can import millions of vehicles through south korea and japan. without these tariffs. we need a comprehensive look at such a tariff change. >> all right. what do we get in this country from south korea and japan. about 16.8% of the vehicles that were sold. last year, a greater. >> percentage come from those. >> countries than from canada. and farley's point is, look, there's no there's no tariff on south korea. there's a 2.5% tariff on japan. if you're going to hit mexico and canada and it's going to impact u.s. automakers, shouldn't it also impact the vehicles coming from

those countries? it'll be interesting to see if this. >> gets any legs, any traction in. >> the days to come. >> by the way. >> ford, as you take a look at shares over the last year, they do import some vehicles, not a lot, but some vehicles that are built in china. and those vehicles now have a 10% tariff on them. going to hop back on the call. melissa, if we have any headlines, we'll let you know. >> all right phil, thanks. phil lebeau. well, the good news is they're not losing any more on their evs. their ev losses are about the same that they've averaged for the past few quarters here. what's what's the other good news. if there is. >> there's not a lot of good news. yeah. and we heard a lot of uncertainties around gm. and by the way, you know, the reason you're not what we heard from the white house yesterday is i think it was yesterday. maybe it was the day before. but the reason not south korea and japan is because this isn't a trade war. it's a drug war. so if you believe that. but if you think about the tariff impact and someone was knocking on doors in the white house over the weekend from the auto industry saying, this is a big problem for us,

every 1% in tariffs, actually every 1% on mexico or canada. but canada is focused on more equals, about a 500 million free cash flow hit to gm. so remember we had gm reported recently their numbers were really solid in terms of the profitability. their stock sold off aggressively. so the uncertainty around macro and auto not great. >> i think the tariff stuff. >> will work. itself out. >> but but. >> the ev losses. >> gm was. >> at. >> $4 billion. >> in losses last year. then this year they said. >> 2 to. >> $4 billion. >> now they're. >> at two. >> ford is still at 5. >> to 5.5 billion. what whoever gets the hang hang strangle on. >> those losses first will. >> be the winner. and so far it's gm. >> the charts look. well they don't look. >> that good. so much to say. >> and it's all pretty bad right? i mean what do we know. this stock is hovering at 52 week lows. and now it will break below those lows. that's a bad setup. but as a business as a chart member the ipo 1956. so adjusted for inflation has lost 99%. >> of their value. >> it's basically. >> so you're.

>> saying. >> there's a chance. i mean you know so. >> yes you could catch a pop here or there. but i mean this. >> is not. >> the big outfit. it's really what it's a testament to. >> is this. >> there's no such thing as a growth stock. there's only growth phases. >> when they come out. >> with a model t and everyone's got a horse. you're the growth story, right? but just like eastman kodak or ibm or any other darn thing, when your day is done, your day is done and you're just another gambling chip in the market. >> guy, how long were you on your. horse when people were. >> driving like that? i remember. that changeover. yeah, yeah. >> you know, there's a lot of concern back in the city streets back then with all the amount of horses in the streets. >> you can imagine. >> there was a lot of other stuff in the streets. >> yeah. >> people were worried. >> then the cars came. >> no, i hear the music. >> but it's. >> important to start reading. >> there's a whole there's. >> a whole. >> history about that. >> getting the engine running again. fti aviation looking to rebound after a few short reports, sent shares plummeting last month, one top analyst says they're generating some major cash where she says they could

put it to use next. and there's more after hours action to bring you our own. john ford just sat down with the ceo of qualcomm to discuss its results, what he had to say about the next move for the chip maker. you're watching fast money live from the nasdaq market site in times square back right after this. >> what in the world of investing a beast lurks between the numbers? some watch from the safety of the sidelines, but others saddle up and ride that one ton rowdy ribeye. >> for all. >> he's got. if that's you, join >> he's got. if that's you, join us on tastytrade. named best i love that i can order official state lottery tickets anytime, anywhere with jackpocket. heck yeah i can play the lottery wherever i want. with jackpocket you get notifications for all the biggest lottery drawings so you never miss out and you can see your ticket on the app. plus, with new official state scratch games available on the app, more of your favorite games are right

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>> welcome back to fast money ft aviation. jumping nearly 7% today, continuing to climb back from its lows of the year. shares of the aviation leasing company took a tumble last month after two short sellers alleged it had misrepresented earnings, even with the recent rebound. it's still down more than 35% from record highs, but jefferies just did its own forensic analysis of the company and thinks there are big gains ahead for fti. sheila kahyaoglu is jefferies aerospace and defense analyst. she joins us here on set. sheila, great to have you with us. thank you. so you're basically attacking sort of one of the biggest pillars of their report. and that is that they are misrepresenting what they are selling. >> yeah. >> i think what fundamentally. >> fti does. is provide. power by the hour. >> for airlines. and that's through leasing, exchanging or repairing their engines. and they are doing it. and they're growing ebitda 45%. >> per year. >> when the stock. >> was up 180% last. >> year, it made them an easy target for the shorts. >> yeah. i mean, what one

allegation was that they were buying engines or they they had bought engines during covid. so they're depressed values. nobody wanted these engines. and then they were reselling them at market current market prices. and so they were sort of misrepresenting because it wasn't a normalized situation. but you say that that's not actually the case because they actually increased their inventory well past covid. >> yeah, that's actually misrepresenting his business. so they do have engines in their leasing portfolio that they bought in 2021. but those. >> engines are 19 years old and. >> they depreciate. >> them down to full value. so basically these. >> engines are then transferred over. into aerospace products. and they are at a fairly. >> low residual value. >> so the thesis that they pre-bought engines and they're skimming this margin is. >> not what. >> fti does. fti repairs engines. and they. do it at a discount to the major oems like ge and standard aero. and that's how they make the margin that they do. but the leasing portfolio provides that feedstock and that flywheel to be able to do that. but they're not in the business of exchanging engines. and because their engines are appraised

every six months, they wouldn't be able to incur that benefit because it's part of their cost. >> of. >> goods sold in our analysis. >> the report earnings at the end of february, do you think they're going to have an update on where they are in their own analysis in order to sort of clear clear this all out. >> we see very. quick catalysts ahead for the stock. you know we're going to there's going to be earnings on february 26th. and their deadline to file their 10-k is on march 3rd. so those are two things we are keeping an eye on to clear the air on what api is doing. and we have 850 million of ebitda in 2024. we have that going up 35% per year to 1.5 by 2026. so you could see why this has caught the attention of the shorts. how are they growing earnings so quickly. >> let's broaden it out a little. your sector was on fire into. >> the. >> fall of last year. and i don't want to play stock market. but names like lockheed martin went from 610 to 450. raytheon, the whole sector just got whacked on a bunch of different reasons. have these names gotten to levels where just valuation alone makes them compelling?

>> my calls primarily focus on airlines and aftermarket defense names. we don't really have buy. three out of 13 buys in the group for defense names. the reason why we like the aftermarket is we've under-delivered planes by 3000 aircraft since 2020. it's really easy. and the cfm56, where he focuses on is 50% of the engines globally. so that's where they're repairing engines. so names like ge, heico, transdigm, fti we're all. about and throw in united airlines as our top airline pick. so those are the names i support. versus defense, where even if revenues are growing, ebitda is not growing above revenues. and that's a hard stock to own in our view. >> sheila, thanks for coming by. great to see you. sheila kahyaoglu jefferies. we were actually talking to the big short guys in miami, and they were saying that they had been in early on during the rise. they got out too early, but then on the dip they bought because they thought that it was unfounded. the short report. so i thought that was interesting. >> yeah. certainly the business model is one that sheila pointed out is one that certainly seems

to be preferable ultimately for customers. the dynamic here around the stock, too, in terms of multiple, especially after that pullback, it warrants, you know, a fundamental buy. >> yeah. how does the chart look. >> well so you've got a circumstance of exceptional outperformance. >> ten year. >> basis outperforming apple microsoft doubling the q's practically. >> and then you've. >> got that drop. >> in gap. >> now from a chart point of view we're not looking at the why. is it a short report. if you're just sitting in your room like it did drop in gap. and so this bounce back leaves it a pretty difficult level. i would use the bounce back to reduce i catch. >> a retracement level. so this. drop that you see right here, i could work. my way back up to approximately 128 130 sheila has a $200 price target. it's got to. >> be. >> an approved mistake. >> because if you look. >> at the prior two tops. >> recently. >> you're going to stall out around. >> that 180 level. >> so you need something to get you over the hill. >> all right. coming up qualcomm on the move after reporting results. and our own john ford just heard from the ceo in the state of the semi stock. what he state of the semi stock. what he ♪ empower ♪

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shares of johnson controls surging more than 11% on the back of results and leading the s&p 500 today. the hvac and building solutions company lifting its full year profit forecast and naming a new ceo. activist elliott management has a more than $1 billion stake in the company. shares of uber dropping nearly 8% after reporting this morning. the rideshare company missing earnings expectations and giving soft guidance. and shares of chemical maker fmc corp. plunging nearly 34% after missing revenue expectations and posting disappointing guidance. and shares of capri dropping more than 10% today after missing earnings estimates for the sixth straight quarter. this is capri first report since the proposed tapestry merger fell through. the luxury retailer also reported disappointing revenue forecasts. you guys are all hopped up on johnson controls today. >> well. >> if. >> you recall, melissa lee, we play this game where we spell a word anagram. what's the thing. >> we do? >> acronym. >> right. a few years ago, remember the mojo? >> sure do. >> yeah. >> well j. and j and now again, i think that a lot of these.

people watch this show, and they said we might want to get in on this, j.c. now. and our world early is wrong. but this is in a lot of ways, a lot of things i thought could happen are starting to happen right before our eyes. now, you're not chasing it here, but good for j.c. >> all right. and now, more after hours action. microstrategy, now known as just strategy. that is on the move after reporting results. tania mikhail has the details. tania. >> yeah. melissa. the big takeaway is that this company is almost. halfway to its capital raising goal. they've laid. >> out to raise $42. >> billion in. >> securities between. >> 2025 and 2027, reporting they. completed 20 billion of that $20 billion of that target in q4. so well. >> ahead of. >> their timeline and, of course, spent $20 billion buying bitcoin. >> throughout the post-election rally. >> the metric. >> investors are. >> looking at with a company like strategy is btc yield. this is a metric created by the company to measure the performance of its bitcoin acquisition strategy. so if they increase their bitcoin holdings over a given period at a faster

pace than they increase their outstanding shares, they achieve a positive btc yield. they ended 2024 at 74.3%. they were. targeting 6 to 10% annually and are now raising that target to 15% for 2025. so it's a new metric, melissa. investors are still wrapping their heads around it, but it's a goalpost for strategy. melissa. >> if they increase their bitcoin purchases faster than they issue common shares is that is that it. >> yes. that's it. >> so they're raising that target to 15% okay. >> thank you. >> yeah. >> thank you tanya mikhail. all right. so. habits old habits are hard to break. it's not microstrategy anymore. it's strategy with a little bitcoin sign. >> like kesha. >> remember her. >> with the dollar sign. >> same thing. >> it's exactly the same thing. >> but this bitcoin symbol. >> and we've talked about this before. the bitcoin yield. it seems like you could control that. >> well again they're telling you this is how you should follow our company. and this is what we think is the right

metric. and ultimately that bitcoin yield is a function of bitcoin going higher. and it's great to buy more bitcoin than shares. you issue if the price of bitcoin is going higher it's obviously very levered in the opposite direction. if it's not working that's it's that simple. >> so you want. >> to sit around and say. >> we could change our name. >> i must have had a few meetings on the subject. they had, microstrategy said they went with strategy. they could have gone the other way and said, we'll just call it bitcoin strategy. yeah. >> sure. >> or b strategy. >> or b. >> strategy gotten. >> right to it. yeah, yeah yeah. >> i wonder how many. i wonder how many people they paid to get come up with that. well. >> michael michael saylor tells. >> his story. >> when you hear him tell his story. >> you will put all. >> of your money into bitcoin. >> he's very effective. >> at what he tells. you know. >> what you know? >> you know what you don't know. >> he knows bitcoin. >> he knows the yield and he knows how to tell the story better. >> you're all in. >> i am fortunately. >> well fortunately.

>> just think about this i my. >> average price is 62,000 on a bitcoin equivalent. so everyone's had a tremendous run trading underneath 100,000 ethereum trading underneath 3000. so you catch it a little little bit of sell. the profit. >> all right. now to an earnings alert on qualcomm shares falling into the red even after the chipmaker beat on the top and bottom lines. earnings coming in at 341 a share and revenues of $11.67 billion. the company seeing growth in all three of its major end markets handsets, automotive and the internet of things guidance for the current quarter also topping street estimates. jon fortt just spoke exclusively with qualcomm ceo cristiano amon. he joins us now with more from that interview. jon. >> hey, melissa. yeah, i did speak to cristiano before the call about growth in pc market share. he said. last quarter, qualcomm had 10% u.s. retail market share in laptops, $800 or more. and he says that's just the beginning. on an. >> investor day last year, we said by 2029, you know, we outlined our plan for five years

to grow 22 billion of. handset revenues for. >> 2029 on windows pcs. >> we said 4. >> billion. >> or a $35 billion sam. that's about a 12% share. that means. we're tracking. great. and then when you look at pc overall in the quarter, we're showing that designs continue to increase. we now have a new product for $600 price points, which will expand the addressable market. so we'll keep going. he also talked. >> about handsets, smartphones and how premium share gains in china are boosting qualcomm's qct business to its first $10 billion quarter. >> our customers. >> are gaining share. >> in the premium. >> tier, is. >> expanding, and this. is all end customer demand. >> it is end. >> customer demand. >> it's not channel. >> and that's a great story. and it's also reflected. >> in our. >> guide for q2, which is above revenue and consensus on eps. >> finally, deep seek he says

it's a tailwind. within days. >> of. >> the deep. >> seek announcement, people were showing it running on. >> snapdragon phones, showing off. >> snapdragon pcs. as a matter. >> of fact. >> microsoft announced. >> that deep. >> seek run is running. >> on copilot plus pc. starting with with snapdragon. >> so lots. >> of good news. >> from cristiano's perspective. melissa. >> so what's the bad news? what's taking the stock lower? i mean, did they address some of the concentration issues that have sort of plagued the stock concentration when it comes to end market users smartphones concentration issue when it comes to country dependance? china. >> well, maybe there is some china concern. he did say that it's not an issue of end market. you know tariffs getting people to stockpile components ahead of a tariff threat, he said. it's really end market demand that they're gaining share there. he did also address concerns about the automotive market and tariff

impacts. they're now not completely sure what's going to happen. but he said their global footprint and their diversification across so many different automakers and end markets would mute any impact there. so nothing that he said that sounded like an admission of, oh, we've got a vulnerability here or there. not that i heard in my ten minute conversation with him. melissa. >> all right. john, thanks. john ford, just quickly, i mean, smartphones are more than 70% of its business. china is more than 40% of its business. >> that's it. and last quarter i thought the stock set up really well in the earnings. and i looked like a genius for about an hour and a half. and then the stock sold off precipitously. it's been sideways ever since. but they're in the i hate to say it, they're in the wrong businesses. i mean that's why because if you just look at these numbers on the surface, double beat on eps, double on revenue, yet the street is not happy. why? because they're in businesses that are deteriorating, not growing. >> coming up, charting some transport trouble, what the chart master says is in store for the road and rail stocks. the details and fast money the details and fast money returns.

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index down nearly 5%, while the dow transports have risen almost 3%. so where does the group go from here? let's turn to the chart master. of course. carter. >> sure. so this is specifically it's trucks and trains, right. we're not talking about the dow jones transportation average which has uber. it has the package haulers fedex ups, it has avis. >> and so forth. >> so literally trucks and trains, the big industrials. there are some of the big names. you see them. let's go right to the charts. and i want to make this point. this is. >> a. >> 30 year comparative chart. and the blue line has tripled the performance of the orange line, which. >> is to say. >> an aggregate of. road and rail has tripled the performance of the s&p. just to put that in context. >> next chart. >> let's add the dow jones transportation average. it's basically marched with the s&p. it's the truckers and trains that have been such exceptional performers. but then of late that's changed. take a look at what we have now. here's a. comparative chart. the orange line is now lagging. this is the road and rail index trucks and trains basically. stalling as the market has continued higher.

and so that then gives rise to a relative chart or two. here is a day to day ratio chart. and this of course is down and to the right. if you're going sideways and the market's going up, your relative performance line as you've seen here is going straight down. look at a long term ratio chart. and we've started to break down that huge outperformance for so long. we've broken trend and my hunch is lower. and so finally just an absolute chart of this aggregate which is available by standard and poor's. this is a well-defined uptrend. we have bounced off that trend line to the penny 4 or 5 times. and i think we're headed back to trend yet again. >> all right. do you think we're headed lower here in this group. >> well it's. >> it's fascinating because of the cyclicality. and i think people are all over the place on the economy. if you if you look again at some of these names relative to where they have traded on multiple over the last five and ten years, you can make an argument that say a jb hunt is actually somewhat expensive to itself. in a world where these things don't relate, you

know, at whim, much like tech stocks. >> if you look at the big three rail, csx, union, un, pnc for the last three years, they've been trading sideways. so if louise yamada was here, she's not she would say, maybe. >> carter is here. that's kind of insulting to him. >> no, it's not at all because. >> carter's pals. >> okay, good. >> she he's on the top of the parthenon, as you know, she would say the longer the base, the higher in outer space. but they're not trading well on what's been an amazing tape. so i'm actually with cbw on this one. >> all right. coming up, the emojis of investing are investors. smiley face frowny crying. what investopedia latest sentiment survey is telling us about the views on the fed crypto and trump 2.0 more fast money and two. >> in a. >> world of uncertainty. >> and. >> disruption, how will your investments. stay resilient? >> we've been navigating. >> change for 125. >> years. >> always looking forward,

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>> welcome back to fast money. investor sentiment is starting to fade as uncertainty over tariffs looms over the markets. that's according to investopedia s latest survey. while most are still at least somewhat optimistic, nearly 40% are skeptical, hesitant or ready to walk away. editor in chief caleb silver joins us now. caleb, finally. they're cracking. they're worried now. >> yeah. you better. >> cue the righteous. >> brothers because they're trying hard not to show it. but fast money, you. >> know.

>> it, right? they're losing that loving. feeling just a little bit. >> this could be a scene out of top gun. >> still optimistic. >> but it's pulling. >> back quite a bit. >> kind of the biggest pullback we've seen in about 12 months. around 41% say they're cautiously optimistic 13% are optimistic. but you're seeing just this hesitancy. and it's because of. >> the issues. >> the tariffs. >> obviously we have that big. >> pullback in. ai and tech related stocks one third. >> now. >> expecting the market to drop 10% or more in the next six months. doesn't sound like a lot of people. but when you survey the amount we do, that's a lot of people who feel that way. 49% feel the market is overvalued. we've had that overvalued feeling for quite a while, but it's getting into the way they're kind of feeling about their portfolios. maybe it's not stopping them from buying their favorite stocks, but they're getting more cautious. >> it doesn't seem to be stopping them from owning the stocks in which they think they're bubbles. i thought that was really interesting, that many people think that their bubble like the ai stocks, the tech stocks, but those are the stocks they still own. >> that's those are the stocks they still own. if you look. at their. >> top ten, those are also. >> the stocks they would.

>> own for the. next ten years. almost the same exact portfolio of the nvidias of the world microsoft amazon alphabet. you got meta in there. some investors holding berkshire as well, but still there. they fear the bubble, but they're not willing. to let go. >> of it. late entry to the top concern us china relations. i haven't seen this one on your list. >> yeah it's. >> been down the list, but now it's climbing the list and it's all tied into the tariffs, which could produce inflation. more anxiety over the us-china relations. but we also saw for the first time on this concerns about deep fakes, right. concerns about technological developments in ai that may make that pricing model look a little bit weird. that's why we had that big sell off for last week. so that's starting to creep into the psyche. >> caleb. >> when you look at the. >> 33% expected 10%. >> drawdown, is that usually. >> a contra indicator? what are we hoping for? >> what gives. >> that the most accuracy. >> the higher the number? >> is it a. >> is it a more. >> it's a little. >> bit of a. >> contrarian indicator because i. >> think everyone was. too far on this. >> side of the boat. >> so when you see people pulling back a little bit and saying that they're actually putting money now into money

market funds after those yields have even come down a little bit, that tells. >> you that. >> maybe we have seen the contrarian indicator start to pop up a little bit, and you've seen these rallies off of these dips lately. we're not willing to let the dips go. people just want to keep owning these stocks, whether it's individuals or institutions. but our readers want to stay invested. they're just feeling like something's amiss right now. and there's been a lot of headlines that have scared them. >> last 10s my favorite question what would you do with $10,000? it's still equities. >> it's equities, individual equities. >> and who can argue when you've seen the outperformance of some of these stocks over the last couple of years, you feel like you're in the slow boat. if you were in an index fund. >> caleb, great to see you as always. caleb silver, investopedia. up next, final trades. >> bitcoin is the best. >> performing asset. >> but its volatility has kept. >> many on the sidelines. until now. introducing the world's first suite of downside protected bitcoin etfs. >> capture bitcoin's upside potential with downside. protection with 190 or 80%. >> protection levels. >> over. >> the one. >> year outcome period. >> asset management at. >> a time of. >> disruptive change. call us

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these levels. i think you nibble. >> steve mp materials. >> i'm long. >> it's been right. >> i think it goes much higher. >> carter advertising and marketing company magnet money up and out guy. >> apparently there's some ice storms coming so. >> be careful. >> out there. >> gilead gnomes. >> all right. thanks for watching. fast. mad money with jim cramer starts right now. >> my mission is. >> simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for. all investors. there's always. >> a. >> bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. >> hey i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to cramerica. my friends i'm just trying to make you a little bit of money. my job is not just to educate but also to entertain you. so call me at one 800 743 cnbc or tweet me jimcramer. this market has the memory of a mayfly. that creates a ton of opportunities. so today where the dow gained 317 points. s&p advanced