is, the two of us. we can't let that go. >> good morning everyone. welcome to street signs. i'm sylvia merida with your headlines. amazon shares are under pressure in pre-market after the tech giant issues disappointing guidance for the quarter, but doubles down on its capex plans, with spending set to hit $100 billion this year. >> when aws is expanding its capex, particularly in what we think is. >> one of these. >> once in a lifetime type of business opportunities like ai

represents, i think it's actually quite a good sign. >> the stoxx 600 struggles to build on its record high, but the european equity is looking to cap an otherwise strong week as investors shrug off tariff threats. l'oreal misses quarterly sales forecast, with revenue rising at the slowest pace since the pandemic amid weakness in china and north america, and attention turns to the january jobs report, with markets expecting a modest slowdown in jobs growth, keeping the federal reserve in wait and see mode. good morning everyone. happy friday to you all. we start today's show looking at the latest in terms of what amazon has reported. their shares are down in pre-market. despite a beat on the top and bottom line

in the fourth quarter. now that followed softer than expected guidance for the first quarter, with forex effects including a stronger dollar projected to deliver a $2.1 billion revenue hit. the company also projected around $100 billion in capex in the coming year, as it continues to ramp up ai spending well ahead of forecast from microsoft, alphabet and meta this earnings season. speaking to analysts, the ceo andy jassy, defended that ai spending. >> we don't procure it unless we see significant signals of demand. and so when aws is expanding its capex, particularly in what we think is one of these once in a lifetime type of business opportunities like ai represents, i think it's actually quite a good sign, medium to long term for the aws business. >> and as always, our very own arjun kharpal has more on the story. arjun, it seems that

perhaps this $100 billion figure wouldn't have mattered so much if we were talking about it like a month ago. essentially. has the developments from deep sea changed the narrative here for ai spending in america? >> it has, and it hasn't in the. >> sense that there's two. >> sides of the debate playing out in the tech world at the moment. and through. >> all of these tech earnings, we've heard the same thing. one is that deep sea has shown efficiencies and is able to create a very efficient ai model, perhaps on slightly older nvidia chips. and therefore the argument goes, why do we need to keep spending more and more and more on infrastructure? that's one side of the debate. the second side, and this is very much where amazon and where the other tech giants we've heard from this week have spun a similar line. and that is, well, if efficiencies are happening in ai are the cost goes down. actually, the technology will become more ubiquitous, more used and further adopted, and therefore we will need more computing infrastructure. and that's really the side that andy jassy sits on. and amazon and microsoft and alphabet, we heard

as well over the past few days. and i think what was interesting is jassy's comments about deep tech were exactly to that. but i thought he did a very good job, perhaps, versus some of the other companies we've heard from so far in justifying that capex spend, because i think the stock would have been down a lot more than it was if the market wasn't happy with that. you know, he said this, as you heard from the sound byte, there a once in a lifetime opportunity. and it's important to put this in context. yes, the $100 billion figure is more than microsoft has committed and more than alphabet has committed. but amazon also is the biggest cloud player in the world. and so, you know, it's kind of, you know, reasons. yeah, there's different needs. and we have heard also on the call that there are supply constraints around the availability of chips, and that this capex number is really a response to demand. so i think the market was probably okay with it, or you definitely would have seen that stock down further. >> let's see what will happen. it feels like we are about to

start or we have started a new chapter here in terms of ai spending and ai discussions, particularly after deep sikh. arjun, thanks for that. meantime, i want to take you to us futures understand how we're likely to open on wall street at this stage. however, they point to basically a flat start to the trading day, probably because investors will be awaiting the latest non-farm payroll figures so we could lack some direction in us equities before we get that figure. for context here, however, when you think about wall street yesterday, the session was a little bit mixed really. we had the s&p and the nasdaq posting their third straight positive session. but looking at the dow, we ended the session down about almost 3/10 of a percent. so let's see what will happen later today and how investors will react particularly to the non-farm payroll figure. i want to bring you back to europe and show you how we're moving so far this morning across equity markets. look at the stoxx 600. we are flat at this stage. we are

lacking also direction here in europe with investors perhaps taking a little bit of a breather really after such an eventful week. if you remember we started the week with the us announcing tariffs on canada, mexico and china. then the tariffs on canada and mexico were put on hold for 30 days. china then ended up responding to these us tariffs. and indeed investors at this stage trying to understand what's going to happen here, whether all of these tariffs in the end are just a negotiating power move. let me take you to the different bourses, because there's been some interesting developments. however, we know today when you think about the fact that investors are seem to be lacking a little bit of a strong direction in terms of moves, it's all about earnings. investors are very much focused on what europeans are. companies are saying at this stage. but i want to look at the different bourses at this stage. we have the extra dax and the hunt just marginally positive. thinking about the ftse 100, we're down about 2/10 of a percent. but

here's what i want to show you. let me show you the week to date performance. it's an important moment to do that. it is friday. it's always a good moment to assess what's been happening. so despite all of these changes in the geopolitical scene, all of the back and forth in terms of tariffs, we are on track to see european markets ending the week higher. look at the ftse move. it could end the week up almost 1.8%. the and the extra dax over in germany could end the week up about 8/10 of a percent. perhaps even more importantly, let me show you the year to date figures. and i know it's february. i know we haven't traded for that long so far into 2025. but look at these figures. we have so much enthusiasm for us equities at the back end of last year. so much talk about american exceptionalism. but look at how european equities have performed the year to date. on track to see the ftse 100 up almost 7% in germany, the main market up 10%. we have seen

particular strength over here in the uk as well as over in germany. let's see whether that will continue for the rest of the year. but no doubt that these are important figures to keep in mind as you think about european stock performances as well. now, as i mentioned, this was the week that kicked off with president donald trump's weekend trade war declaration on mexico, canada and china. the decision by trump to impose tariffs on america's neighbors initially led to a sharp pullback in equities and fueled a dollar rally. but on monday, trump agreed to pause tariffs on mexico and canada for 30 days, giving investors some respite. but he pushed ahead with tariffs on china, provoking beijing to hit back with its own restrictions targeting us energy in particular. now, as we approach the end of the week, the immediate trade risk has receded, but the threat of tariffs still looms, with some seeing europe as potentially in the crosshairs. so let's discuss this with our next guest, dominic buning, head of g10, fx

strategy at nomura international, is joining us today. good to have you on the show. >> morning, sylvia. >> thanks. so i want to take a step back. i want to understand how do you trade currencies amid all of this volatility, this back and forth in terms of tariffs. what is the approach. >> yeah i think it's a really good question actually because i can see people in the market getting really sort of chopped around. and you kind of rush in when tariffs like they're coming on and then you rush out again. so there's been a lot of this sort of volatility and choppiness for us. the way we're thinking about it is really to take a step back and say, look, where do we think this currency should be trading if there was no tariff threat whatsoever? you know, if we kind of look at some of the other fundamentals that normally drive currencies, interest rate differentials, commodity prices, growth momentum, inflation, all these things, and we kind of look at that and say, well, this would maybe suggest euro dollar. for example, if there was no tariff risk, euro dollar might be at 105 105 50. that kind of area, we're obviously trading a bit below that. we're 103 50 or so,

which is kind of implying the market says, you know, there's like a 5% tariff maybe out there. so really what you then have to do is say, look, what's our conviction, our tariffs coming, are they not? and if you think they're coming, which we do for europe, we think the rest of the world tariff is going to come. then any chance you get on a move up to a 104, 50, 105, you should be selling euro dollar. and actually. but when, when then when you get down to, you know, 102, 150, that probably is the point at which all of those tariff risks are kind of encapsulated. so it is it isn't easy. and it is, you know, hard to kind of figure out exactly where you are. and it's a bit of a guesswork sort of game. but i think as long as you've got that framework for thinking about it, then i think you can navigate these things. the other thing, of course, is you can just try to avoid the dollar risk and play some of the crosses, which is also what we've been doing. >> i want to talk about dollar, but before we get there, i want to pick up on something you said in terms of expecting tariffs on european economies too. at this stage, we don't have that detail. we don't know whether the us is actually going to go

ahead with that. but they have announced tariffs on china. there's a school of thought suggesting that chinese goods will flood into the european market. so with the information that you have at the moment, do you see these tariffs thus far being inflationary or disinflationary for the european bloc. >> look, i think at the margin for us the tariff risk is probably a little bit more on the disinflationary side, i think both in terms of the impact it has on european growth and some of that sort of import flow and the kind of negative price impact there. so, you know, when we think about europe, the overall balance of risks in terms of tariffs coming in, i do think it's probably a bit more of a negative for europe. and, you know, that's why we see it weighing on the euro and why people are looking to sell euro on those rallies. >> what is the outlook for the euro then. what do you think is the range by the end of this year? >> yeah, it's actually interesting. we've been amongst you know, we've been bullish on the dollar since, you know, obviously since the election. but i think we've been a little bit more cautious about just how far it needs to move, how much of an adjustment is needed before things start to stabilize. so we still don't really think euro dollar needs

to trade below parity, certainly not for any prolonged period of time. and we've kind of got euro dollar going to around 101 stabilizing around there. and then possibly in the back end of the year you might start to see, you know, a bit of a pickup. and there's also other potentially positive risks right in europe which aren't really being focused on like what if we start to see progress towards a ceasefire in ukraine? that's probably going to be more positive for sentiment in europe. so look, the outlook for europe is clearly not great. but i think one of the issues is that everyone knows it's not great. it's fairly well priced in. you don't speak to many people in the market who've got a positive view on europe and therefore the hurdle, to a positive surprise in europe is probably a bit lower than the hurdle to a bigger negative surprise. so i do think there's that kind of interesting skew at the moment in euro dollar, which you just need to be aware of, even if you keep a core view of being long dollars. >> interesting. let's go back to the dollar. focus specifically on the greenback. i mean, the main narrative has been that we'll just inevitably see a stronger dollar, but how strong do you think the dollar could

actually get? because so far, what we have witnessed from a tariff point of view is this back and forth. we don't actually know whether these tariffs will ultimately be implemented. >> yeah. yeah. and i think just to talk about the tariffs briefly to me, you know we shouldn't get confused at the moment by what's happened in the last week. and just assume tariffs aren't coming. i think that would be slightly naive. there are really three objectives that i would think about in tariffs. one is what we've seen. it's kind of saying, look we want to deal with something else. we're going to use tariffs as a threat. that's that's fine. but there are other longer term objectives. one is, you know, trying to fix the trade deficit and the other is to raise revenue. and i think if you look at a lot of the more ideological kind of viewpoints that have come through from people who are going to be in trump's administration, those two things are important. they're not going to come through that quickly. maybe we're going to get this report on the 1st of april or a number of reports on the 1st of april, looking at some of these unfair trade practices and whatever else it is. so i think that point you could start to see those those tariffs come through and, you know, in terms of what it means for the dollar. yeah, it probably does mean

potentially another three four 5% upside in the dollar against various crosses. the things that might constrain that rally in the dollar are one positioning is relatively long dollars. it's a fairly well subscribed view. valuations are quite rich. you know, they are quite stretched when you look at a multi-year horizon. and when you look at some of the other objectives of the administration. i mean, scott besant been talking about trying to bring ten year yields down or ten year yields coming down naturally as a consequence of some of the other policies. well, that acts as a bit of an offset. if you think about dollar yen, for example, very closely related to what happens with us ten year yields. so if the administration is successful in actually getting ten year yields to come down, that would act as a bit of a counterpoint to some of that dollar strength. >> interesting. now, one of the approaches you mentioned was that you're shying away from the dollar to some extent. you're looking at other currencies as alternatives here. so my question to you is actually whether the hegemony of the us dollar, to some extent, is in a little bit of risk because countries might seek other currencies, other alternatives. given this uncertainty and the volatility from the trump administration. really?

>> yeah. i mean, i think there's two ways to think about that. so for me, the kind of broader view of we're not going to trade using the dollar, i think that's a little bit overblown. i think there's a natural drift where the dollar is not going to be as predominant as a global reserve currency, but it's a very, very slow drift. it doesn't really matter for, you know, day to day trading decisions. but i think from that shorter term perspective, you can strip out a bit of the volatility of being purely exposed to that headline risk and say, well, look which currencies either face a similar tariff risk, but where there's other fundamentals that are misaligned or which ones have some asymmetry. so for example, we favor being short sterling and long yen at the moment because neither of those economies are that exposed to the tariff risk in our view. but we think that the monetary policy story is going to continue to shift, where you might start to see bigger risks of the bank of england being more dovish, where the boj, we think can continue to push on, and that isn't really fully factored into the pricing as we

see it. so we favor short sterling again as an example of that. >> interesting. well let's see how things will evolve. but dominic great to chat with you. thanks for coming on. dominic bunting head of g10, fx strategy at nomura international. and coming up on the show, private markets are looking to bounce back after a tricky 2024. we'll discuss the outlook for private equity with sunaina sia alds after this break. >> you put together like a classic, always work your magic every time you. >> make this valentine's day one to remember. don't just get flowers. give her an incredible moment. from bubbles to bills to butterflies, give her a thoughtful, unforgettable, and truly special valentine's day gift with fast shipping. ordering is a piece of cake. send a cake com at send a

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connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways. >> after a strong jobs report in december, will the january jobs report continue the trend? what it signals for the economy and interest rates, employment numbers and analysis? squawk box today, 8:30 a.m. eastern. cnbc. >> welcome back to the show. now, last year saw investors offloading record amounts of private equity stakes while fundraising in private markets saw its worst year since 2015. but our next guest says investors will be coming under pressure to make deals and that there is a wall of capital waiting to be deployed. i'm

pleased to introduce sunaina, the global head of private capital advisory at raymond james. great to have you on the show. what an interesting topic to discuss this morning. before we look at the outlook for 2025, i would like to understand if you notice any sort of sectors where investors were particularly falling out of love of last year. >> i think the sector that started seeing. >> the most. headwinds pressing. >> against it in. 2024 was discretionary consumer. >> especially as you thought about trump winning the election. >> then trump. >> won and. >> the transition. plan that continued to announce tariffs, anything consumer related started seeing this uncertainty being priced in of, well, what are the cost of goods if we have to think about tariffs, how much, when? and so that sector became out of favor very quickly. and i think the other thing in the us, the other sector that started getting downplayed, was anything energy transition related in the us markets in the second half of the year, again for very similar reasons.

>> so as we've now started a new year, you're expecting a bit of a change in attitude from private equity. just explain to us why what has changed over the last couple of months. really. >> i think the most important thing to understand about private equity is that it runs on a clock. these are ten year long funds. maybe they can be extended by a few years, but really, you've sold a ten year product to institutional investors. so that means 4 to 5 years to put the money to work to go and buy companies. and then the last 4 to 5 years of the fund's life, you're selling companies. now, you have to understand what happened in 2023 and the first couple of quarters of 2024, the market went on a pause. it slowed down quite a bit because of where interest rates were. a lot of market participants either didn't buy a business for a long time, and certainly were on hold until the us elections before they started to sell their businesses. well, the election uncertainty is behind us, both in the uk and in the us, and a number of private equity funds have woken up to say, well, they're behind the clock now. and so 2025 is looking to be one of the biggest

years in the last five years for m&a activity and m&a activity, then spurs those funds to go back and raise more capital for themselves and around the wheel turns. >> it's a bit of a cycle to some extent. tell us, where do you see the biggest opportunities there for you're talking about m&a green shoots, but where. >> i think the biggest sectors where you'll see them are the sectors of the economy that are going to be most widely benefiting from what's happening around us. so anything industrials related, anything business services related, tech and tech services remain incredibly vibrant right now. and of course, you can't ignore healthcare and healthcare services, insurance services, adjacent verticals to the healthcare world remains pretty consistently in demand by private equity investors. i think what's also interesting right now is european mid-market in general, because there's been so much of a bearish sentiment around europe because of what will happen with tariffs and so on and so forth. for the private equity investor that does a takes a five year view to holding a business. it's

actually a great time to buy that valuations on a relative basis, given where us assets are pricing versus european assets, makes the european market really interesting. if you're a buyer, if you're a buy and hold type of investor, which private equity is. >> speaking about europe, i would like to get your thoughts on the pressure that seems to be building on european officials to deliver on deregulation. of course, this is a trend in the united states in the wake of the reelection of donald trump. but here, you know, there's a lot of talk, but we haven't seen any significant changes towards that. really. do you think that's actually going to come to fruition? and would that be helpful really to see more activity in these markets? >> will it be helpful? undoubtedly, yes. the question is when not if they think about deregulation. why do i say that? because markets are inherently, inherently will put the pressure on the european regulators to think about a different approach? if all the capital starts flooding into us assets, us markets, because they're more competitive, getting more productive, getting more deregulated, the european market forces will have to think about

how they compete, compete for capital and compete for resources on a global scale. and i think for that reason, there will be some deregulation. is it going to be anywhere near the size and scale of what donald trump is doing in the us? no, but even a little bit will help make the market more competitive here. >> so how does that then actually play out when you see such a big move from the united states towards deregulation and perhaps some a little bit of a move in europe, what does that mean from a practical point of view? because then definitely the interest seems to be going stateside. >> interest is going stateside. but remember when a lot of capital floods into a market, it bids up asset prices, bids up company prices. so the returns you can expect from the us markets becomes a lot tougher to think about how you get top quartile type of return numbers out of the us. whereas when you think about the european market opportunity us, it's everything comes at a price. the price is on a relative basis are going to be better in europe as you think about the next 2 to 3 year cycle. however, adding value to those businesses, scaling them will also be a bit slower than it might be in the us. so it's

all in. what kind of company do you choose? how do you add the value? what are the levers you play when you think about that relative bet us versus europe? certainly in the short term the us has the momentum, but on a relative value basis you can buy better here in europe. >> tell us also about asia, because it's another important part of the world that we are haven't yet focused on. what does that mean for asia therefore, because obviously you have these trade tensions us-china. but then when i was in china, in asia not too long ago, there was just so much positivity, optimism, which is a totally different sentiment when you're on the european continent. >> absolutely. and i think that it depends on where in asia you're talking about. i think if you're talking about southeast asia, certainly singapore, malaysia and the rest of southeast asia, there is a lot of optimism. then there's a lot to be optimistic about. and they're doing they're doing the right and smart thing with their counterparties in the us and europe to attract that capital in singapore, for example, has done an incredible job of

deregulation and making their market incredibly competitive and attractive. so those forces have shown that that the capital will flow in and will help you grow your economies. as a result. i think china still remains really a difficult picture to buy into. those that have tried to, you know, time, the bottom and time, you know, how much support the chinese economy will get from the government. these are all guesswork at the best of times. so i think china remains still that one piece of, you know, loud noise in the picture when you think about asia at large, that it's really hard to understand when and where the picture starts to turn, especially with the geopolitical uncertainty now. but southeast asia definitely remains much more interesting. >> well, let's see what's going to happen. hopefully we can speak again. if we did see a lot more activity in this space, it's great to speak with you and see the global head of private capital advisory at raymond james and coming up on the show sales at l'oreal disappoint with one key market underperforming charlotte. we'll have the details. join us after this break.

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disruptors to apply now. entries closing soon. >> welcome to street signs i'm sylvia myrow with your headlines. amazon shares under pressure in premarket after the tech giant issues disappointing guidance for the quarter but doubles down on its capex plans with spending set to hit $100 billion this year. >> when aws is expanding its capex. particularly in what. >> we think is. >> one of these. >> once in a lifetime type. >> of business. >> opportunities like. >> ai represents. >> i think. >> it's actually quite a good sign. >> the stoxx 600 struggles to build on its record high, but the european equities looking to cap an otherwise strong week as investors shrug off tariff threats. l'oreal misses quarterly sales forecasts, with revenue rising at the slowest pace since the pandemic amid

weakness in china and north america, and attention turns to the january jobs report, with markets expecting a modest slowdown in jobs growth, keeping the federal reserve in wait and see mode. let's get a check on how we're moving across equity markets on the european continent. at this stage, we have the stoxx 600 below the flat line down. well almost one tenth of a percent. so essentially we are flat for the time being. across the benchmark, as investors are basically seem to be taking a bit of a breather here after such an eventful week. however, also important to keep in mind that several european companies have been reporting today and thus far that is the most important market narrative for european investors. but of course, we're going to get to the latest non-farm payroll figures stateside later today. and that could be the data

point. that actually brings a little bit more of a direction to european stocks. let me show you the different bourses too, so you get a better idea of what's happening on the continent. at this stage. it is a bit of a mixed picture really. we have just the dax trading in the green for the time being. but all in all though, you need to look at these figures into context. put everything into context. because it has been a relatively strong week for european equities, despite all of the volatility around the trade tariffs. but on top of that, the year to date performance for european equities has been particularly strong over in germany as well as here in the uk for the ftse 100. but let's take a look at one of the corporate stories we're following this morning. l'oreal fourth quarter sales missed expectations, growing 2.5% on an organic basis, the slowest quarterly rise since the pandemic amid weak demand in china and a slowdown in north america. charlotte has been looking at the numbers. charlotte at this stage, investors do not seem to be

enjoying the latest numbers from l'oreal. explain to us why. well, we know that in china things are difficult and that's just something expected. actually, they're getting a little bit better compared to the previous quarter. north asia down 3.5%. it was 6.5% in the previous quarter. but they say look, the mainland china sales declined low single digit for the full year. and that they expect the 25 to be flattish on that market. but the bad surprise, the most negative surprise in this report was the result in north america, because we've seen from previous luxury companies that have reported so far that north america was. >> showing. >> some green. >> shoots there of demand for luxury, and there the sales were up just 1.5% in the quarter, against a growth of more than 5% in the previous quarter. so a very abrupt slowdown in that market. that's something that the analyst was surprised about. europe was quite resilient at 5%. but again, another big engine of growth has been the luxury division. and for them they have the brands they make the perfumes and the makeup for saint laurent, armani, prada. and there we've seen a slowdown as well. the luxury was up just 1% on the quarter. consumer

products our brands like maybelline or lcf kind of resilient up 2.5%. finally, dermatological, which is a smaller division for them, but one that's been growing double digit for several quarters, doing extremely well with brands like vichy or la roche-posay. also a little bit slowing down, up 5% on the quarter. now, it's interesting to hear from management this morning. they gave us a bit of color for this year. they said they still want to. they will outperform the global beauty market in 25. but they talked about how they sold recently. and that was in the news recently as a stake that they have in sanofi. so they freed ■k73 billion with that. ad the cfo is saying this morning they will give them the means for more acquisitions going forward. so it's very interesting. they also announced this morning a deal with jack mouse or this fashion brand, extremely popular and really a rising very, very fast. so they have an agreement with them this morning to do some of their beauty. they signed an agreement recently with miu miu as well. so they're working, you know, on diversifying their portfolio.

finally they said they will enter the new tre cosmetics market soon. that means these supplements. so they said they will make some launches on that front recently, very soon. and that they took stakes in clinics in china and north america to observe and understand the medical esthetics market. so they give us here some elements of where they see growth potentially coming through. very finally, latin america is a market that is much smaller for them, but growing very aggressively up more than 7.5% in the quarter. so they're giving us all the elements where they see where they could see some growth. diversifying the portfolio going forward, because it looks like some of the traditional growth engine, whether it's asia or luxury, they haven't performed as well as expected. and that's why we see the negative reaction on the shares this morning. it's interesting how they're they're now also focused on the health element of it, because no doubt that seems to be a growing trend. it's also quite staggering how wide their portfolio seems to be. but thanks for the update, charlotte. now, in the other corporate stories this morning, holding company porsche se says it expects impairments in luxury automaker porsche to nearly

double to between 2.5 and ■k73.5 billion, and impairments in volkswagen to tend towards the top of its previously expected range at ■k720 billion. now, in the defense sector, we also heard from saab. the company lifted its medium term sales growth target, with the swedish defense equipment maker saying that demand remains high. the results come as the war in ukraine grinds on and with president trump having floated requiring nato members to lift defense spending to 5% of gdp. speaking to cnbc earlier today, the ceo michael johansson said europe needs greater defense spending. >> we must sort of increase capacity and i've said all the. time that i'm not sure we're doing enough. so now we bring forward and increase our investment for capacity, specifically in areas like advanced weapon systems, support weapons and sensors. that's really needed. and we need to have ammunition capabilities and stockpiles in europe. and

there's more needed, definitely. so for this company, it's good for the future. of course, that will put some pressure on the on the cash conversion in the period of 2023 to 27. but we have also said that we will grow at a compounded annual growth rate over this period, 18% instead of 15. so it's good for the company. but we have to do what we need to do to make sure we can handle the demand, which is out there. >> and in further italian banking news, the italian lender bper has launched a ■k74.3 billn bid for banca popolare di sondrio, with ceo gianfranco papa describing a merger as a perfect fit. the offer is an almost 7% premium to sondrio, closing level on wednesday. be prepared. the offer comes amid a wave of internal consolidation in italian banking led by unicredit, which is trying to buy banco bpm and unicredit is reporting next week. so we'll

have those numbers for you then. in the meantime, let's get a check on us futures. how are we likely to open stateside? we're still lacking a little bit of direction really, but they tend to they suggest a little bit of a downward beat for us equities today. perhaps what could actually lead to a further direction of travel in us equities today is the non-farm payroll figure. attention will be on that figure later today, with forecasters expecting a slowdown in the number of jobs added. while unemployment remains stable. that would keep the us economy at what's seen as full employment and the and the federal reserve in its wait and see phase. let's discuss this with our next guest, michael eakin, cio at phoenix group. michael, great to have you on the show. look, before we think about the fed, let's talk about the non-farm payroll figure. last time we obtained the jobs report, they blew all sorts of expectations. they knocked everything out of the park. how likely is that to happen today?

>> look. >> today's non-farm. >> payroll print. >> is a really. >> significant print. >> given the december payroll. >> where about 256,000. >> jobs were added to the uk, the us economy. >> we're expecting today to have a more sort of normalized level. so we're expecting the print to come in at about 170 to 190,000 jobs today, but the. >> market's going to be super. focused on it. clearly, there's some headwinds. >> that the us. economy has faced over the past month. >> the la. >> wildfires colder than. >> colder than usual weather. >> and that acts. >> as a real headwind. >> on key areas like construction. >> leisure and hospitality. >> so we're thinking. >> a more normalized level of. >> non-farm payrolls. print today. >> around that's 170 to 190 k. >> i'm still wondering about how you take this, these numbers into consideration for your positioning, because they're they're one report says one thing. the next report says something completely different. ultimately now you have the la fires also playing a role in

this figure. how do you read the data in terms of the health of the labor market stateside? >> look, again, it's a really important. >> print today and it could surprise to. >> the upside. >> and indeed to the downside. >> if we get more than 190,000 jobs added, you know, then that. does increase the prospect of the fed hiking somewhat. but again, we could get surprises to the downside. we cannot. >> discount the. >> impact of. >> mass migration. you know, the. >> impact that that will have on the us economy and indeed tariffs. so the market's super focused on the print today. you know expecting. >> that. >> 170 to 190. but if we get up here surprises to the upside or indeed to the downside, we will see the market move on the back of that. >> everyone at their desks later today to see what that number is. in the meantime, though, talk to us about the other dynamic here. and you've highlighted that already with us tariffs coming into play, what did you learn from this week's events in terms of how tariffs could actually play a role here

in the outlook for the us economy and for the fed? so much back and forth basically. >> yeah. there was and look. >> this is going to be a consistent. >> theme of the trump presidency. >> you're going to see. >> announcements then people being coming to the table negotiating and. >> getting to. >> a place that works. for the us. and those parties. look, tariffs globally are not. >> a good thing. >> for global economic growth. and it is weighing heavily on market sentiment, trade uncertainty. >> on the. >> back of. >> potential tariffs that are coming through. is the elephant in the room. and the market would clearly love to see certainty there. but it's it is absolutely weighing on people's minds. >> let's bring the conversation back home then. one of the guests we had earlier on the show was basically suggesting that the uk is still perhaps one of the geographies that could be a little bit protected in terms of new tariffs from the united states. do you think that's the case? what could be the impact for the uk economy? >> look. >> on a localized level, the uk imports. about 68 billion pounds

worth. >> of goods from the us. >> and exports 70 billion pounds. and it's. >> got a surplus in terms of services. >> so on a net basis the us is in a trade surplus with the uk. >> so it. >> would be pretty strange to put tariffs on a country where you've got that situation. having said that, it's marginal because actually what will weigh even more on the uk economy is the impact. of global tariffs. and even a 10% global tariff will have an impact on all economies, but it will also impact the uk economy as well. >> so when you think about what the bank of england said yesterday, they were very clear to some extent saying that, you know, they are worried about where tariffs are going to go, right. so ultimately, what do you think is the biggest uncertainty from a monetary policy perspective for the bank of england this year? is actually these trade conflicts likely to be the main headache for the policymakers? >> look, the. >> policymakers are weighing up many different things, both the domestic economic outlook, the

inflation prints coming through. but of course, geopolitics plays a very significant role in that. and look, the mpc announcement yesterday where we saw the majority vote of 7 to 2 to cut rates by 25 basis points, again, that surprised the market. the market was expecting 8 to 1, and the market was not expecting two dissenters calling for a 50 basis point cut. so the overall tone is definitely more dovish than the market anticipated. but i think governor bailey was very clear in his press announcement following the mpc that they're very going to be very cautious and proceed with caution in terms of future, future monetary policy. >> i think they went as far as using the word careful that they need to be careful this year. you know, one of the discussions we've had on the show in previous previous shows has been around where the bank of england is vis a vis the fed and the ecb. do you think that with yesterday's decision, we actually saw the bank of england moving further toward the ecb in this more dovish approach?

>> yeah. look again, central bank divergence is something that the market focuses on a lot. and you know 6 to 12 months ago that was the topic. there's no doubt about it that the bank of england's tone is somewhat more dovish. they are very aware of monetary policy and the need to really inject impulses into the economy to get uk economic growth going at levels which, you know, which will bring about long term debt sustainability. >> michael, great to have you on the show. hopefully we can do this again in the short term. michael higgins, the cio at phoenix group. now coming up on the show, we'll hear from the monopolist fed president neel kashkari. today that exclusive interview is coming up at 1340 gmt with our us colleagues. and still on this show, the countdown begins to sunday's super bowl. we'll get the latest from new orleans and dig into what it could mean for advertisers after this break.

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today, 8:30 a.m. eastern. cnbc. >> and as we approach the end of the show, here are the four things to get you up to speed ahead of the open on wall street. traders are closely watching today's non-farm payroll print, with expectations of a slowdown in the number of jobs added. we'll hear from several members of the fomc, including the minneapolis fed president neel kashkari, who is speaking exclusively to our us colleagues now. ise also on ai related stocks as microsoft, google and meta platforms project combined capital expenditure of at least $215 billion for the current fiscal year's, up more than 45% on the year. and it is super bowl weekend. reigning champions kansas city chiefs are going to the three peat as they take on the philadelphia eagles. and president donald trump is said to be among the attendees at

sunday's game. a record $1.39 billion of bets are expected on the game through legal and regulated operators, according to data from the american gaming association. contessa brewer asked kansas city chiefs quarterback patrick mahomes whether the gambling boom is good for the sport. >> it gets people watching. i think that that's good for the sport, but at the end of the day, i want people to realize that it's a game that you play on the playground for recess and the stuff that you just go out there and give everything you love. and i think that's what we try to do on the football field. and i think that's everybody on that football field. >> now we'll be hearing from a slew of executives across the gambling sector today on cnbc ahead of the big game. and as we're talking super bowl. let's get out now to jay gray who is in the host city of new orleans. jay. >> sylvie, it's. >> friday morning. >> that means it's the start

officially. >> to super. >> bowl weekend. we're inside. >> the. >> nfl experience. it's really just an interactive area for fans to have a little fun, get involved in what it's like to be a football player, at least for a few seconds, right? they expect as many as 100,000 fans to pass through this area. all the interactive games, all the displays and have a really good time through the weekend here. this all ahead of sunday's game, and there are a lot of fans that go up here, thousands who don't have a ticket to that game, but they just want to be a part of what's going on in the super bowl. host city. new orleans knows how to throw a party. it's been exciting so far. the crowds really starting to build at this point, and they will through game day. as you talked about the chiefs with a chance to three peat. that's never been done before in the history of the nfl. so it should be an exciting game. it's predicted to be a close game. so i think i pulled a hamstring. i am done this morning. back to you. >> top skills for sure for sure jay i enjoy the game. that was

jay gray nbc from nbc news. now the game is also said to be an important one for advertisers, with host broadcaster fox reportedly selling at least ten commercial spots for more than $8 million each, which would represent a new record. david jones is the ceo of brand tech group, and he's joining us to discuss this in further detail. david, great to see you again. i just would like to understand how would you compare this year's super bowl versus last year? what has been the biggest difference? >> look, i mean. >> it's got everything it's. >> got, you. >> know, donald trump taylor. >> swift, kendrick lamar. it's going. >> to clearly. >> be a record. >> ever audience. >> the one thing i'd say it hasn't got is generative ai, which is fascinating. now you can say, but hang on, we've heard that, you know, openai are going to run their first ever super bowl spot, not. >> just their first ever super bowl. >> spot, but their first ever paid tv advertising. we've got ads from google and meta and godaddy, but i think the thing that's actually missing so far,

and obviously we'll see on sunday, but no one has actually used generative ai to create that content, which is quite remarkable and or even bewildering when you think how good generative ai is today at creating content and the incredible progress that's been made in the last 18 months. >> so could that be the last super bowl where gen ai is not used for advertising? is that what you're suggesting? >> yeah, i mean, i think from the content creation piece, i mean, obviously, like last year you had literally one five second ad for anthropic and that was it in one region. and now you've got a lot of players present. but i think interestingly, you know, the perplexity chief business officer said that they were looking at paying $8 million for a super bowl spot, and then they. >> thought it was. >> just going to be packed. >> full. >> of ai companies. so they wanted to stand out. i think the way to stand out is actually use ai to create content, because it's if you look at what creators are doing, and i think it's almost like the advertising industry didn't get the memo. like creators today are creating the most incredible content with generative ai, and yet we're not seeing any of that in the super bowl.

>> let's see whether that will change next year. in the meantime, i want to focus on the numbers once again because they're staggering. let me just repeat these for our audience. fox is reportedly selling at least ten commercial spots for more than $8 million each, which would represent a new record. my question to you is where do we go from here? >> well, look, i think the is it the last gen i or is it the last kind of traditional super bowl? and everyone now on for more on is going to be generative ai potentially, but is it the last taylor swift super bowl? we'll see. but i think if you look at her impact, i mean. the previous game was the record ever audience on a sunday since the last super bowl 27 million people. that was double what the nba final got, double what the world series got, and a 53% increase in teenage girls watching the nfl. and you're going to have trump there. you're going to have taylor swift there kendrick lamar. so i guess the question for brands to ask themselves is if you spent $8 million on a on a super bowl ad, are you going to be overshadowed by all of that and the kind of whole word of mouth that you would usually be

expecting? but i think what we are seeing is some amazing creators, and it's a great parallel to, you know, ten, 15 years ago. so, you know, perplexity are doing a huge thing with creators. the nfl are bringing in 150 of them. alex hill, one of the biggest creators out there, influencers out there is doing a spot for carl juniors. so i think if i think back kind of ten, 15 years ago, everyone said, well, influencers and creators can't create content and we're kind of there again with, you know, can be used to create content. and the answer is yes. and it should be. and i think it's the last time we'll see. almost no ai created content in a super bowl. >> i want to go back to the point you made around the taylor swift. of course, she has been important in bringing new audiences and into the game, really. but ultimately, why are you looking as as to whether this is the last time that she is involved here? and i'm just trying to understand what does this mean from an audience point of view, and what are the audience targets do you think could actually be aimed at in the future? >> no, i think it's more just, you know, her relationship with travis kelce. they cut to her 17 times in the game against the

jets. and the question is will the chiefs get back into the super bowl final again. will it be a four peat not a three peat. and you know will she still be with travis kelce. so i'm being somewhat flippant but i think it's clearly going to be a huge audience. and it's going to be fascinating to watch. the only thing i would say is maybe openai will create a tv commercial with their tool. sora. we they haven't actually teased that ad yet. most people have, but i think it's going to be the biggest audience we've ever seen. and it also underscores the point that, yes, in a world of, you know, the attention deficit economy with huge competition in content, big appointment viewing events like this are still going to get huge audiences. >> let's see what will be the headline when the game is over. what will be the peak ad that everyone is going to be discussing? but thank you for your time today. david jones, the ceo of brand tech. and before we let you go, i want to take you to european markets. so we get to through what has been happening in the equity space today. we have a mixed picture

in europe. we have just the extracts above the flat, above the flat line. we are seeing pressure for other markets on the european continent though. but i want to take it to the week to date performance. it's friday, you know, i like to give you the context and think about these numbers. you actually have a lot of momentum for european equities after such an eventful week. we started the week with this new trade war. we saw the united states imposing tariffs on canada and on mexico. then those were put on hold for 30 days. and then of course, china actually retaliated the moment that they were also faced with american tariffs. however, there's a school of thought that perhaps there's room here for negotiation between china and the united states in terms of how that has translated into the european stock market. look at these figures. it actually has been a relatively strong week despite all of this volatility. but perhaps what's even more importantly, when we talk about context here, it is the year to

date performance. let me show you that as well. look at these figures. the german market is up 10%. we are double digit growth so far for german equities. this however, after what was also quite a strong year for german equities in 2024. so that's momentum for the german market continues this as we are approaching the election later this month as well. let's see whether that event could propel even more the momentum for german equities. but i also want to tell you about the ftse because we have seen the ftse hitting a records in this new year of trading, the ftse 100, it is up 6%, more than 6%. in fact, year to date, when you think about some of the dynamics within the ftse 100, of course the calls from the new labor government in terms of building new homes, in terms of bringing more growth into the uk economy, is an important narrative. but let's see how the how the policy

action will translate into equity moves as well. when you think about some of the more important stories this week thus far, we have to take you to big tech to thinking about amazon. there has been a bit of a change in narrative here in terms of ai spending late last year, as i highlighted earlier in the show, there was so much american exceptionalism, exceptionalism, so much bullishness for us equities, particularly big tech. however, we have seen pressure for amazon in premarket trade. shares are down almost 3%, with investors questioning the staggering figure of spending $100 billion in capex this year. when you think about what other big tech players are doing, we're also talking about a lot of money in in that field. the question is, after the developments from deep sea is whether this is still a reliable investment to some extent, from the point of view, that perhaps there's room to spend less on ai

and still deliver quite a lot of technological advancements. let's see what will happen there. i want to take you to us futures, too, so you get a final check on what's happening on wall street, how we're likely to open. they actually point to a flat start to the trading day. let's not forget that we're going to get a new jobs report. so all eyes will be on that figure to understand as well. what is the health of the us economy. and that number could then provide more direction for us equities. let's see what will happen later today. that is it for today's show i'm silvia amaro. have a great weekend. >> hello. welcome to t-town. black men over 40 everywhere. these guys experience a drop in testosterone. don't worry. it happens to all of us. some guys

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