portfolio. the return. >> on. >> investment for the club. >> pays for itself. >> jim cramer is the. >> benefit you get that you can't. >> get anywhere else. he has a. >> unique ability. >> to know the market, explain. >> it to people. it's a great value. >> get invested. join the club today. go to cnbc.com. slash join jim. >> it is 5 a.m. here at cnbc. >> global headquarters. >> welcome to worldwide exchange. here is your five at five. >> clouds slow down. >> shares of amazon are getting hit forecasting its weakest sales growth in. company history. data on deck. >> investors are looking ahead to the final. >> jobs report of the biden administration and what it could mean for the fed. and if at first you do. >> not succeed. >> president trump tries again to close a tax loophole that's critical to many on wall street. plus, a cnbc exclusive with the ceo of snap on talking everything from earnings and tariffs to hiring. and later, why wall street. >> may be rooting. >> against an eagles super bowl victory. we'll debate if they're

haters or there's data that supports that thesis. i'm leaning more towards the first one. it is february 7th, 2025, and you're watching worldwide exchange right here on cnbc. thanks so much for being here with us. i am frank. >> holland, also. >> an eagles fan. just full disclosure, we begin with the major indices coming off a three day win streak. as investors, they really try to digest a mixed week for tech earnings and. >> the long. >> term implications of tariffs. take a look at futures this morning. >> pretty muted. >> start to the day. the s&p down fractionally. the dow up fractionally actually just turning positive a short time ago. the nasdaq maybe surprisingly just down fractionally right now just about 17 points. all right we'll look at the pre market movers and the big stock story of the morning. that's amazon near the top of the nasdaq 100 laggards. you see it right here down just about two and three quarters of 1%. microchip tech actually the biggest laggard down over 6%. rounding out the bottom five. here we have tesla nvidia and amd again rounding out the bottom five. we'll look at the gainers as well. taking a look

here on the other side of the coin. fortinet cyber security name up about 7.5%. take-two interactive, a video game maker, up almost 6%. marvell technology, palantir up over 2%. this stock just seems to be a juggernaut. booking holdings also up 2% in the premarket. i want to take a look at the mac seven. we just showed you a few of the names. we're taking a look right now. we're seeing the mac seven moves on the back of that amazon report. apple down fractionally. alphabet also reporting this week down about a quarter of a percent. microsoft basically flat but up fractionally nvidia we just showed it to you a short time ago down 1.25%. meta platforms up almost a quarter of a percent as well. those are the moves on the mag seven. and we continue to follow the etfs tied to china, canada and mexico, the three countries involved in those tariff disputes, all three actually outperforming the s&p week to date. you see, the week to date moves here. the mcci that tracks china up about 1.5%, the gww that tracks mexico up about 3.5%. so big upside move for that etf. the cw that tracks canada also up just about 1.5%. i want to take a look at the

treasury market bond yields kind of holding steady ahead of that job report. that could have a big influence on the fed and its rate decisions. taking a look at the benchmark coming in at 4.43. also some questions. if investors piling into bonds for safety, that may be one of the reasons why we haven't seen more movements in bond yields. but again, the benchmark at 4.43. and we got to take a look at gold. that is definitely a safety play. gold hitting another all time high. you can see this morning moving even higher up another half a percent week to date it's up 2% again gold hitting another all time high. bitcoin a very different story. we've seen bitcoin under some pressure. you see the chart week to date down almost 4.5% right now. kind of a rebound i guess up just over a half a percent trading at about 97,002 75 a coin right now. but again down for the week just about 4.5%. and we got to take a look at oil rebounding a bit this morning but still on pace for a three week losing streak. wti now negative on the year. but right now we're seeing wti up almost 1%. similar story for brant crude. brant crude the international benchmark okay

that is your setup. now we want to get to our big stock story this morning. that is amazon down big in the premarket after its latest earnings report. cnbc senior tech correspondent arjun kharpal joins us now from london with much more on this one. amazon shares down over 2.5% right now. >> yeah that's right frank. and look it was a pretty good quarter just gone if you look. eps came in at $1.86 way ahead of consensus. revenue came in at just under $188 billion, again ahead of consensus. but there were quite a few moments that gave investors a reason to sell. firstly, the guidance of between 150 and 100, 151 and $155 billion was below consensus. and at the lower end that would imply around 5% growth, the slowest growth on record for amazon aws. amazon web services, of course, in focus, which is around 50% of profit for amazon, posted revenue more or less in line with estimates. but i think given the optimism around this part of the tech giant's story,

its business, the market really wanted a bigger beat as well. and of course, all eyes on capex. that's the theme of this earnings season. amazon saying it will spend $100 billion this year, mainly building out data centers and investing in ai that's bigger than microsoft reported and alphabet as well. now, ceo andy jassy, on the earnings call, called ai a once in a lifetime opportunity as a way to justify to investors that spending. but of course, deep seek has sparked concerns over whether such a level of investment is needed and, of course, whether those tech giants will see the return on those investments. there were some good parts, though. look, amazon boosted profitability, with net income almost doubling to $20 billion and its ad business continues to grow with revenue up 18%. but frank, look, given the sky high expectation and of course, the jitters among investors, amazon didn't quite hit the mark with the stock down in the premarket. >> so again looking at the chart right now down about 2.5%. that capex spend by amazon, as you

mentioned 100 billion is actually about a 20% increase year over year. is that one of the things that are weighing on this stock this morning? do you think this is a reaction to deep seek again, investors kind of questioning the need for such intense spending when it comes to capex? >> yes. deep sea changed the game going into this earnings season, frank. and i just kind of want to try to lay out the two sides of the debate here. one is that deep sea has created this really efficient model, cheaper on potentially older nvidia chips. and so the question arises, why do you need to spend all this money on this investment? the second part of the equation, and this is very much firmly where the tech giants are sitting. and what they're saying this earnings season is, well, if the technology is getting cheaper, actually, it's going to become more widespread, more widely adopted. and actually that's going to be good. we're going to need to build more infrastructure because there's going to be more demand. so we will need more computing power. and if you listen to all of the ceos on the earnings calls from microsoft, from alphabet and now from amazon, they are saying just that, that it's a good

thing for us, the hyperscalers. and clearly that's the debate that's been playing out this earnings season. >> you know, i thought you were going to say jevons paradox. i feel like it was a drinking game on our air right after deep sea. people kept on saying that that that thesis of what you were just talking about, the cheaper it gets, the more consumption we're going to see. arjun, gopal, great to see you as always. thank you very much. all right. turning back to the broader markets, rough reports today from amazon and alphabet. they seem to be weighing on the major averages, but they're still on track for a positive week, even despite monday's tariff fueled sell off. but depending on what happens sunday night against the eagles and the chiefs, at least according to wall street history, we could be in for a fresh round of pain. joining me now is ryan detrick, chief market strategist at the carson group. also, the person that sent around these stats about philadelphia sports teams and the markets, ryan. so we got a lot of reaction on our internal emails. let's bring the audience in on this. i'm going to use some air quotes. my man research that you did. yeah. what's the thesis here. >> well first off good. >> morning frank. thanks for having me in. and i know. >> you're an eagles fan, so

don't. >> get too mad here. >> there's something called the super bowl. >> indicator, right? >> if the afc wins or the nfc wins. so historically there's been 58 super bowls. >> interestingly 29. >> afc winners, 29. >> nfc winners. >> when the afc wins, stock markets up about 10% on. average when the nfc i'm sorry. it's when the nfc. when the nfc wins it's 10% on average. afc is about 8%. so a little bit better. but the last 13 times the afc won frank the market's been higher 12 of the last 13 times. so playful stuff. disclosures don't invest in this. but here's where it gets interesting. like we said with your eagles eagles won or eagles let's put it this way the city of brotherly love. when you win a super bowl or world series the athletics won. that was athletics back then 1910 1911 recessions okay 1913 led to a world to world war one, 1929 1930. philadelphia won again. world series, not good times, 1980. the phillies won the world series. double dip recession 2008 philadelphia won world series and then 2018 a down year

for the market. not that great eagles won a super bowl. so listen maybe you know you get it. you get it. but just playful way to look. >> at it. i let you roll this all out i want to point out something that you forgot. i'm going to go back since you're going back to 1910 when the athletics were in philadelphia. they're like three cities past philadelphia now. you're right. 1983 the sixers win the nba championship. we're going to show the audience the s&p performance up double digits that year. you're selective data, ryan. selective data. >> yeah i gotta admit it was it didn't fit the narrative. you're right. it was playful. playful. but we'll see. and i'll tell you this much kansas city wins the super bowl. market's up like 16% on average versus the one time the eagles did. it's down. but hey we'll see. good luck i don't like i don't like the chiefs i'll be honest i'm rooting for your eagles. >> well i can't tell by the research you did ryan. but let's get down to some more serious business. i'm looking at the markets this week. are you a bit surprised to see some weakness when it comes to big tech? amazon is the latest and the markets are still up for the week. is that a surprise to you

at all? and what does that say about investor sentiment and direction of this market. >> yeah i mean it's a tad surprising, but honestly, when you look at the fourth quarter last year, frank, we started seeing technology, semiconductors start to underperform on a relative basis a little bit. so it's not hugely surprising. we came into this year, you know optimistic pretty bullish but more neutral technology i guess what's really impressive like two mondays ago we had deep seek monday. yeah the market was down. but you know you look 351 stocks were higher right out of the in the s&p 500. well this rotation is real right. the lifeblood of a bull market is rotation. i know tech's a huge part of the market. communication services with google today is a huge part of the market. but to see you know financials hitting all time highs. you've got industrials hanging in there. small and mid caps are doing really well i know they're a dirty word sometimes. so i'm really we're really impressed with this rotation we're having. and we think it probably continues as again maybe the fed cuts a little more in the market. thinks inflation could improve and the economy is strong. we get into that. but that's how we see it playing out. >> well ryan, speaking of the fed, we obviously have the jobs report coming up later today. the expectation is 169, a downward move from last month's

or the previous month's report of 256. there are some disruptions in there. there's wildfires. there's some other things going on in this report. how do you think the fed takes this report in light of some of the policies we're seeing enacted by this administration, that they've admitted that they're factoring in? what's the, i guess, the meaning of this report in your mind when we're looking at the fed, how do you think the fed is going to take it? and how could it possibly influence the rate cutting cycle? >> yeah, i'm not so sure it's going to influence the rate cutting cycle that much. like you said, there are some one offs this month. a couple of months ago, we had obviously the terrible storms that went through the southeast that that really did a number on it. i think inflation is what the fed really is still focusing on. i mean, you talk about it. i mean, yes, they're worried about the tariffs. they worry about the policy, you know. but we're not seeing spikes in inflation yet frank. we're not seeing big spikes in initial claims. i know a little bit higher yesterday. but all in all the labor market is still pretty solid. i mean that's the reality. you know, we're not seeing major layoffs. we're not seeing. we actually saw more people quit last month. i mean, when do people quit when you know, you're going to quit

if things are okay, right. so, i mean, i know it's not a perfect labor market. there are cracks. i think that's going to matter more. and maybe, you know, over the course of the next quarter or so, we'll get a better clue about the jobs, the jobs data. but i'll tell you, the economy still looks pretty darn strong to us. >> all right. brian detrich, allegedly an eagles supporter, i can't tell. i just can't tell ryan. but always good. >> research, right? you can't tell where i lean. i'm a bengals fan. trust me, i have nothing to root for right now. so that's how it goes. >> ryan. enjoy the weekend. enjoy the big game and the eagles victory. good to see you. all right. this morning we're also tracking etf flows etf net inflows topping $109 billion year to date. following a record above 1,000,000,000,000 in 2024. so we're on track for another trillion dollar year. we're also tracking the moves above the 30 day moving averages for the popular index funds, the s&p and the triple qs. take a look right here. monday we saw a slight bump of inflows during the terror fueled selloff. but then investors they kind of turned away from those index funds throughout the week. the spy on the triple q inflows falling the rest of the week with the markets recovering on some tariff pause. news. and you can see right here the markets are

actually on pace for a winning week. if you look at the s&p and the nasdaq 100. but it was a somewhat volatile week. and according to verify, there was an increase in investors looking for safety with a rise of inflows into government and corporate bond etfs. the lqd is an investment grade corporate bond etf. the move attracts short term treasuries. all right. coming up here on worldwide exchange we've got a whole lot more to come, including why one money manager says investors should get regal with one underappreciated dividend paying etf. but first manufacturing trade wars, jobs and earnings a cnbc exclusive with the ceo of snap on. plus, president trump weighs closing a tax loophole that is critical to investment managers all around the country. and later, much more on amazon and why it's rough q1 outlook is not dead. my next guest is bullish. take a very busy hour. still ahead on very busy hour. still ahead on worldwide exchange business. it's not a nine-to-five proposition. it's all day and into the night. it's all the things that keep this world turning. it's the go-tos that keep us going.

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so, this whole meeting could have been remote? oh, that is my ex-husband who i don't speak to. hey! no, i'm good to talk! xfinity internet customers, cut your mobile bill in half for your first year with xfinity mobile. plus, ask how to get the new samsung galaxy s25+ on us. >> do you first time consignors get $100 extra. terms apply. >> welcome back to worldwide exchange. we are watching shares of snap on this morning. you can see they're down about a quarter of a percent. also a bit of a tough week for the stock on the back of quarterly results. despite beating on the top and the bottom line investors showing some concern over continued softness. and the company's tools group led by lower activity in the us operations, which partly hurt the sales performance for much more on this quarter, we're joined in a cnbc exclusive with nick pinchuk, chairman and ceo of snap on. nick, good morning. it's great to have you back on. i like to call you the most interesting man in the tool business. what's going on? >> yeah, frank. happy new year. >> yeah, happy new year. i'll tell you what it's going to be. >> fly eagles fly. >> thank you, thank you i

appreciate it. we're really rooting for an eagles victory. it's america's team. but don't. >> bet on the 76. >> ers though. they ain't going to win i'm. >> telling. >> you we got to lean away from sports nick. we only have you for a few minutes. so we got to get into your quarter. but i do appreciate the support beats on the top and bottom line. but i want to ask you about something that's become a bit of a trend. we're seeing these earnings report. you're not providing long term guidance. why not why why why don't you feel comfortable enough to provide long term guidance. >> well. >> we don't have the tools group which is our biggest. >> business, doesn't. >> have backlog. so we don't have that view of it. we have we do have confidence in our future. we just don't think it's particularly useful for us to do that. and in fact, over time, the stock has done pretty well. the stock was up last year very nicely, and i don't think that's a necessary component of it. generally, we talk to our investors and we give them a view of the future. we give them our our views on where the market is, what new products we have. we think and we think that's enough for them to figure it out. and it's worked so far. you know, yesterday it didn't work so well. it was down 4.5%. the shorts kind of, you know,

dominated the selling. and people focus on the tools group that they sell directly to technicians. and they are afflicted by the, the you know, even though their garages are full and they have a lot of work, they're afflicted by the uncertainty of the day. well, the other two divisions. >> wait, wait, nick, let me jump in for a second. then then you're making me want to double down on this question. how are you so certain about the future? if you're saying a lot of your customers are uncertain and their sentiment isn't great, how can you feel so confident? >> because we have three divisions. one of the people didn't look at this. we have one division who is basically encountered this uncertainty for a long time. you know, the garages are filled, they're uncertain. so they've shifted to smaller payback items, things like hand tools as opposed to the box behind me. so they're buying a portion of the product line. we shifted our manufacturing, our design and our marketing to kind of expand that, and we've narrowed the gap. but the other two divisions, one that sells to the repair shop owners and managers and the other ones that sell to critical industries, they had record quarters. and that kept us, for example, sales were up. but it wasn't only that the

profitability was 22.5%, and that was an all time record for the fourth quarter. >> all right, nick, to your point, commercial industrial. wait, wait. i want to actually bolster your point for a second. commercial industrial grew 4%. that's aerospace. that's oil. it's a lot of, like you said, critical industries. so what are you hearing from them? and i want to ask also what you're hearing from them specifically tied to tariffs. how do they see these tariffs impacting their business. you just said it's a record quarter for the for that segment. and the sales were up 4%. but what are they telling you going forward. >> well the technicians are kind of worried about the i guess the blizzard of things that are coming out of washington now, words like gaza and greenland and panama and stuff like that. the larger businesses are kind of positive about the view, because they see that this administration is positive versus business in general. and so that is overriding the situation. the tariffs and the other things are things they'll have to deal with. we haven't heard from our customers any attenuation in that area because of those. but i suppose, frank, it's early days. you know, the national association of

manufacturers, jay timmons on the other day and he forecast that if the tariffs go in like on canada and mexico will be worth 144 billion that downward. and that has to be some effect. but i think in the near term people aren't necessarily worried so much about that right now, except maybe the auto industry, because it's unclear what's actually going to happen in this situation. >> all right. i also want to look ahead. >> businesses have been still pretty strong. >> i want to look at we got the jobs report coming up later today. i'm looking last month manufacturing actually lost 13,000 jobs. i want to talk to you about your business in particular, how is hiring right now and also how are tariffs going to impact you? we've talked to you about this before. i know you do a lot of domestic manufacturing, but how do you see the potential of tariffs and maybe even retaliatory tariffs impacting your business. and give us a little kind of color when it comes to hiring as well? >> okay. three things. one, first of all, we make in the markets where we sell. so we're kind of a poster child for american manufacturing 80% of what we sell off those vans. and the tools is made right here in america. and a hand tool is 50%

labor. so we've been able to do that for a long time because we customize the product. so that works for us. and so the import tariffs aren't really a big factor. of course we're not immune to them, but we are very resistant to the effect. the retaliatory tariffs. it depends on which market you're talking about. canada. we have some we have a pretty good sales into canada. so we'd have to figure out a way around that. mexico not so much. and the other place is not as much because we make in those markets. so for tariffs that's not necessarily we're shaking in our boots as far as us as far as what's going on. we know. >> what's going on with hiring though, what's going on with hiring and wages. you need a lot of skilled workers, obviously, to make tools. so are you having to increased wages? >> no. we have well, yeah, we always we increase the wages every year since the great financial recession. yeah. of course wages. >> do you know what i'm talking about. >> we didn't have to do it exceptionally. no, we didn't have to do that because i'm telling you, snap-on is a great company. we people who work for snap-on and use snap-on tools know that it's the outward sign of the pride and dignity they take in their professions, and therefore we and we didn't lay

off in the pandemic. so we give stability and pride and good wages. so we don't have so much trouble hiring at least snap-on. generally, if you talk to the national association of manufacturers, though, they'd say there's 428,000 jobs open today. and this is why it was so important when the president said the other day that this is technical education month, because we need skilled workers, and we need them to believe and understand how important what they do is. >> all right, we got to leave it there. but i always love having you on. you always have a great take on everything. and also, i didn't know you were an eagles fan, so i like you even better than i liked you before. nick pinchuk, ceo and chairman of snap-on. you have a great day. >> fly eagles. fly, buddy. >> all right. still on deck here in worldwide exchange. nothing pretty here. shares of elf beauty. they are sinking ahead of the open. while management says tiktok's potential ban. that actually could be to blame, you see. shares are down more you see. shares are down more than 26%. stay power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis, help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment

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your empower investment account has performed well. and this whole off-white-ish cantaloupe thingy is really working for you. so... so...? so... (♪♪) hot to trot! nobody says that, what? get good at money. so you can be a little bad. empower. contessa brewer is on the ground in new orleans talking to the players about the stories that matter to you. from crypto and tariffs to artificial intelligence. how do you think that i could change the game of football? >> i feel like analytics and stats like having. >> on. >> go. >> could it replace coaching? >> oh damn. >> that's a deep question. with all the things that's going on with ai, i mean, you never know that that could be a possibility. >> i don't. >> think a robot would know

about it. like emotions, how players feel. >> i know tariffs are a big. >> discussion and i don't i don't want to touch it. >> i don't know how. >> fast these companies can come to america and build. so i feel like in the short term it. >> might be a little. >> some growing. >> pains for. us as the consumer. >> they're making america better. >> i would say. >> in a way, you know, i think i'm more of a free market capitalist. >> as nvidia on. >> its way. >> up or. >> on its way out. >> is that like the graphic like chips and things like that? i think it's on its way up. i personally bought the dip this past week, and i think that as ai continues to advance, you're still going to need a need for that computing power at some base level. >> there's a lot. >> of, you know, chances for correction. i would say that i'm still. pretty optimistic about it. but again, i'm not a certified. financial advisor. >> how do you think. >> about your money? >> you know, i think it's precious. i have a financial. >> advisor. >> stocks and real estate. i don't like crypto. i know it's booming right now, but i don't think i'll ever be able to get on that train. i'm a passive index fund investor. >> i'm very big.

>> into finding something that i like as a product and then breaking it down to its components, right? so i love like mobile technology, mobile phones. >> do you. >> think diamonds. >> are a good investment? >> yeah. >> why not? >> i mean, these super bowl rings are filled with them. so. yeah. >> are you in the market to. >> buy a diamond? >> i like, i like earrings, i like, you know, necklaces, stuff like that. >> i also. asked the. >> players to. >> describe their first big ticket purchase when they signed their contracts with the nfl. and most told me they bought a car or a truck, some of them modest models, sometimes used. some of them said, okay, well, i bought a vehicle for my parents. we've posted more online at cnbc.com. and don't forget, cnbc sport is now a podcast where you can listen to my interviews with some of the biggest names in sports betting. and we have a big lineup of interviews today. kicking off with fanduel ceo amy how on squawk box and then

lasting throughout the day. live from the big easy. frank. >> yeah, absolutely. thank you. having a great time out there by the way kelsey, being a little coy about your question, i saw what you were trying to get to being in the market with the diamond. as you mentioned, you cover gaming for us. so i want to ask you i hope it's not too personal. are you betting on the game? are you betting the over the under one of these parlays? what are you doing? >> listen, i got to tell you, i'm going to be really honest. i don't much bet on sports because i don't like losing. i don't know enough to be good. usually i just play the moneyline. that's the way i go. and i even lose at that. so my game in the casino is roulette. that's where you're going to see me if you pop into caesars today, okay? >> i mean, i don't gamble at all, so i totally get it. but i do think the eagles are going to win our contessa brewer down in new orleans. i hope you're having a great time. thank you very much. all right. coming up here on worldwide exchange. looking ahead to the january jobs report and the fed's policy path forward. exclusive insights from ziprecruiter coming up after this. stay with us.

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>> good sign. >> medium to long term. >> for the aws business. >> that was amazon ceo andy jassy on the earnings call last night, talking to one of the key themes of this earnings season when it comes to big tech, of course, that's capex spending. amazon shares under some pressure despite a top and a bottom line beat for the quarter. welcome back to worldwide exchange i'm frank collin coming up this half an hour. much more on those results. and the key numbers that seem to be giving investors just a moment of pause, at least when it comes to big tech. all right. but first we begin with the major indices coming off a three day win streak. as investors they try to digest kind of a mixed week for tech earnings and the long term implications of tariffs. take a look at futures still pretty much muted right now. we have seen the dow move higher looking like it would open up about 20 points higher right now. the s&p down fractionally. the nasdaq down fractionally as well. but one of the biggest drag on all three in the premarket. that's amazon projecting weaker than expected sales this quarter overshadowing last quarter's beat on the top. and the bottom line you can see the move right here in shares down just about 2.5%. but you saw even bigger dips right here. stock actually recovering a few of those

losses. but again sharp decline on amazon after that earnings report. we want to check the rest of the mag seven on the back of those results right now. taking a look. you're seeing right now apple fractionally lower. alphabet actually flat right now. microsoft up fractionally. nvidia off of its lows but still down just about 1% in the premarket. meta platforms up almost a quarter of a percent. we also continue to follow etfs tied to china, canada and mexico, the three countries involved in those tariff disputes. all three actually outperforming the s&p week to date. you see right here. big upside moves for the mcci that tracks chinese equities. the e w w similar upside move about 3.5% week to date. this is one tracks mexican equities. the w that tracks canada actually the laggard. when you look at this list up just about 1.5%. we're also looking at treasuries this morning. bond yields holding pretty much steady ahead of that jobs report. that could have a big influence on the fed and its rate decision. take a look. the benchmark at 4.43%. talking to a few traders. some questions about if these yields if they've been less volatile because people are pouring into bonds in a flight to safety. again, bond

yields right now at 4.43. we're looking at the benchmark not a lot of movement in recent days. looking at gold different story. gold hitting another all time high. but it's also a safety play right now. you see gold up about a half a percent week to date up just about 2% right now. again, gold hitting another all time high. bitcoin a different story. we've seen some volatility hit bitcoin. right now it's up three quarters of 1% right now moving higher. but you see week to date it's fallen more than 4%. you can see the chart a lot of up and down moves here. we're looking at the digital currency trading at about 97,400 per coin right now. and we're taking a look at oil this morning. still on pace for a three week losing streak but rebounding a bit this morning. also important to note wti negative for the year. that's the us benchmark right now it's up just about 1%. similar story for brant crude the international benchmark okay that is your setup. now we want to turn our attention back to equities. and a very busy morning for our big money movers. we're going to start off with pinterest. those shares they're surging ahead of the open after delivering a q4 earnings beat, showing an 11% pop in monthly active users.

that was ahead of estimates. quarterly sales also hitting a new milestone, topping the $1 billion mark for the first time ever. shares up just about 21.5%. ceo bill reddy will have much more on the quarter coming up at 10 a.m. eastern in a cnbc exclusive. elf beauty shares. however, they are sinking after trimming its full year outlook, citing softer than expected trends in january. executives say those trends are part of a broader industry slowdown and a result of what they're calling distracted consumers. shares of elf are down just about 26.25%. the company's ceo. he spoke with our jim cramer on mad money last night. >> the december period was highly promotional. sometimes you have. >> like this consumer. >> hangover after they loaded up on a lot of product. >> in december. >> now we're not promotional. >> the industry was. >> and you sometimes have a trough after that. i think the second thing. >> that. >> happened in january is the social commentary. >> was much less. >> i think. >> down by almost 20%. >> and shares of buy now, pay later giant affirm they're moving higher, up just about 14%

after a top and bottom line beat for the quarter. a key metric that gauges total transaction value jumped 35% in the quarter from a year ago. sales growth also coming in hot, up 47% year over year again. shares of affirm they're up just about 14% right now. turn our attention back to the broader markets and the countdown to the january jobs report that comes out at 8:30 a.m. eastern. economists are expecting employers added 169,000 net new jobs last month. that's actually down from just a blowout 256,000 back in december. the unemployment rate expected to hold steady right at 4.1% for much more. let's bring in julia pollock, chief economist at ziprecruiter. julia. good morning. good to see you. >> good morning. >> all right. so we just noted it right there. an expectation of a month over month decline. a lot of different factors in there. there's the wildfires. i think there also might be some questions about companies maybe waiting for the new administration to come in before making plans for hiring and things like that. i think the question for you is how should we read this jobs report? what's the significance of it when we're looking at the markets and

also the fed? >> well, if it comes in as expected, 169,000, that's. >> actually right. >> in line. >> with the three month average. so that would suggest a stable. >> labor market. >> at a somewhat. >> cool level. job growth of course. >> has come down over. >> the past two years. >> from giddy. heights during the pandemic reopening. and the labor. >> market is. >> stable but fairly sluggish right now. >> all right. so you're calling it stable and sluggish. i want to ask you about the outlook for the jobs market going forward. so i'm looking at 2020 for the government sector was the second biggest hire last year. and then if you look in december it was in number four. as we look at some of the plans of this administration to reduce the government workforce, including reports that about 40,000 government workers have taken buyouts, how does that impact how we look at the jobs report and the impact that it has on the markets and on the fed? >> well, most of that government hiring. >> was actually at the state. >> and local. >> level, and most of it was driven by the pandemic induced. >> population shifts.

>> to the sun. belt states, to the mountain states. it was hiring of. >> police officers. and teachers. >> in nevada and arizona and texas, the places. >> where people moved. >> and so that. >> you know. >> was. was faster than. >> usual, but it was really delayed. catch up after the pandemic. >> because the. >> private sector raised wages and competed for workers. >> and outcompeted the public. >> sector for a long. >> time, until the. public sector took. >> much longer. >> to adjust. >> that should. >> normalize at some. >> point and ease a bit. >> health care hiring remains very, very strong. >> that was. >> the number one. >> driver of. >> job gains last year. >> hopefully in 2025. >> we'll see job growth. broaden out into retail, professional services. >> tech and the. >> other areas. >> that. >> have been. >> suffering the. last two years. >> all right. when we're looking at the unemployment rate that is expected to hold steady at 4.1%, but i'm looking at hourly wages year over year. that's supposed to the expected to decline just very slightly from 3.9 down to 3.7. is that something we should be paying attention to? is this something that's giving us some indication of the direction of this job market?

>> yes, it has cooled and. >> leverage has shifted from workers. >> back to employers somewhat. >> but when we survey employers. >> at. >> ziprecruiter, we find. that they still expect to have. >> to keep. >> wage growth pretty solid in. >> the coming year. we have. >> an aging workforce. we have immigration declining, and for. demographic reasons, we have. talent shortages. >> as far as the eye can see in many, many fields. so employers are. >> still. >> feeling a bit of pressure. and. you know, throughout this report. >> i think. >> the risk is very much to the upside. >> all right. julia pollak, great to see you. thank you very much. thank you. coming up here on worldwide exchange. much more on amazon's earnings. shares getting hit hard on outlook concerns for our next guest is remaining bullish on the tech giant despite the numbers taking a look at amazon shares. they're down just about 2.5% right now. down just about 2.5% right now. stay at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real.

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>> big deals right. >> when you need them. car gurus. >> download the app today. >> welcome back to worldwide exchange shares of amazon. they're under some pressure this morning after the company reported kind of a mixed set of results. you can see shares are down just about two and three quarters of 1%. amazon projecting weaker than expected sales this quarter, overshadowing the beat on the top and the bottom line. and q4 revenue growth from aws slowing to just under 19%, just barely missing analyst estimates. also, amazon plans to ramp up capex to $100 billion this year, a 20% increase year over year as it continues to invest in data centers and hardware to meet the demand for gen ai. let's talk much more about this now with nick jones, internet analyst at citizens jmp. nick, good morning. how are you?

>> good morning. >> well, how are you? all right. so you got a price target of 285 on amazon. you didn't change it after this. i want to ask, are you concerned about anything that you and the capex spending. is that something that you see as too much right amount? of course. andy jassy calling it a generational opportunity. >> yeah. look. >> you know, i think we were all looking for. >> a stronger outlook and guidance. >> than. >> was provided. you know, we didn't. >> really get. >> a good glimpse of what full year is going to look like. some of the commentary around aws was it was going to be lumpy, both from a growth perspective and a margin perspective. so that in combination with comments that the second half should be kind of better supply chain constraint improvements and capacity improvement, i think that the year is still set up pretty positively for aws and ai growth. now, on the capex front, we seem to be in this era where if you don't spend now, you risk losing share later. so while

capex is up, i actually view this as a positive that they see a huge opportunity. they've been a great steward of capital over the years. and when they put capex out, they tend to generate the revenue over time. so given their track record, if they're putting this kind of capex out, that shows the type of opportunity they see in the future. >> what do you make of what we saw with aws growth slowing down a bit, it missed estimates by like a scooch. it was just like very slightly under estimates, but the profitability increased. what does that say to you about this business? again, it's the number one hyperscaler when it comes to the big three. >> yeah, i mean, you know, i think after microsoft reported and after google reported investor sentiment, i think pulled back a little bit, i think it was actually reasonable for where investors were. while consensus didn't adjust kind of quick enough to reflect the changes. so i think investors were, you know, pretty much expecting that. i really think it's the one. q outlook that was a little shocking. the profitability just shows how well their kind of core cloud

platform performed. it's very profitable. what to pay attention to from here is ai can be a drag on margins as that starts to ramp. and he made comments on the call that, you know, they're growing triple digit, but could actually be growing faster if they weren't capacity constrained and near term. that could be a drag on operating income margin. but long term, he commented that it should start to look like historical margin. >> what is your view of the e-commerce business kind of neck and neck with walmart when it comes to revenues right now? of course, more people just shifting to buying things online. what's your view of that? and do you see a big tariff impact on that going forward? we've seen some reports that amazon isn't that exposed to tariffs. but certainly tariffs have an impact on almost every retailer. >> yeah. look they'll have some exposure to tariffs. but the beauty of amazon is it's a marketplace. so as long as they have a similar replacement available in a in an area that has lower tariffs or no tariffs, they'll be fine consumers. and amazon has been the driving force behind this. but consumers

really value convenience. they're trying to get your product same day next day two days. they keep talking about that every quarter. they keep getting faster and faster at getting products to folks. and it keeps speaking to how speed is improving conversion. so their their business, their e-commerce business remains really well positioned to just continue gaining overall share of retail and wallet share from consumers. >> all right, nick, we got to get going. one very quick question. a quick answer on this. the miss on the ad business that is seemingly kind of tied to the e-commerce business because they do a lot of the ads there. the miss in the ad business. big deal. little deal. >> a little deal. there's a lot more to come there. they can still improve ad loads for promoted listings. they had a really successful up front that's going to start showing up this year. they can increase ad load on their ad supported prime video. not a big deal. we'll be paying attention to it. i still think there's plenty of runway on the ad visit. >> all right. nick jones price target on amazon 285 shares down about 2.5% right now. thank you. good to see you coming up here

on worldwide exchange. we have the one word that every investor has to hear today. and the stock pick that every investor needs to know. plus president trump looks to pull the plug on one tax loophole that's been long favored by many on wall street. we have all the details coming we have all the details coming up right a ♪♪ [inner monologue] this is going to sound crazy. but i know these attack vectors. oh, had a little upgrade have we? ♪♪ okay, so that's how you want to play. ♪♪ industries are transforming and businesses need to navigate the changing landscape to stay ahead. when you partner with barclays, every change leads to

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exactly bolstering america's bottom line. our robert frank joins us now with much more on this story. robert. good morning. frank. >> good morning. >> good to. >> see you. well, president trump telling republicans in a tax meeting yesterday that he would eliminate the loophole that allows private equity, venture capital and hedge fund managers. >> to pay. >> that lower tax rate on. part of their earnings. the so-called carry is that 20% they make on the fund profits. that profit is currently taxed at the capital gains rate of 23.8%. now, many argue that it's in fact a fee for service and should be subject to ordinary income tax rates of 37%. now, trump made the same promise back in 2016 as did biden in 2020. it has largely survived thanks to lobbying from private equity and hedge funds, but the 2017 tax cuts made it slightly less lucrative for these fund managers. it extended the time the firms had to hold the assets from one year to three years. now, how much would it raise? well, the cbo estimates about 1.4 billion a year would be

added if you reduced or eliminated that loophole. mckinsey says it's about 1.2 billion a year. so that's about a 10th of the price of trump's plan that he also mentioned yesterday to exempt tips from income tax. and it's still going to face a big fight. the american investment council, they represent private equity saying, quote, we encourage the trump administration and congress to keep this sound tax policy in place that supports jobs, workers and small business and local communities. so, frank, going to be a big fight over this. but given that they have to find some payfors for this $4.4 trillion tax extension, this could be the time that this finally ends. >> so, robert, you mentioned the biden administration had talked about this as well as well. so you're saying it seems like it's lobbying that's kind of keeping it in place. >> yeah, it's really the far left that has been advocating to get rid of this loophole for 20 years. in fact, it's the trump

administration that finally did something about it in 2017. just reducing that time. you had to hold the assets. biden just couldn't get the votes among all the democrats because of that lobbying and all the money from private equity, hedge funds and, of course, venture capital. >> i'm sure a lot of our audience is going to be watching that very closely. robert frank, always great to see you. thank you very much. all right. coming up here on worldwide exchange, the slice of the market our next guest says is rising above large cap stocks when it comes to performance. plus, his top idea on how to play that trade. we'll be right back after this break. >> 16 million americans suffer from chronic back pain, the sixth most costly health condition in the us. meet creative medical technology stock symbol sells on the nasdaq. creators of stem spine, a regenerative medicine using stem cells to help fix the multibillion dollar chronic back pain problem. stem spine was shown to be 87% effective at improving mobility and reducing chronic back pain, and that could. >> be.

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>> after a strong jobs report in december, will the january jobs report continue the trend? what it signals for the economy and interest rates, employment numbers and analysis. squawk box today, 8:30 a.m. eastern. cnbc the day's top stories driving wall. >> street brian sullivan joins kelly evans power lunch, weekdays. >> two eastern. >> cnbc.

>> last chance to be on the disruptor 50 list. is your startup disrupting the status quo? scan this code or go to cnbc.com. slash disruptors to apply now. entries closing soon. >> as we close in on the 6 a.m. hour, check on a few big stories that we are following this morning. apple is reportedly planning to unveil an overhaul of its low cost iphone se in the coming days, and put it on sale next month. the last se refresh was back in 2022. president trump meeting with u.s. steel ceo yesterday as the company looks to salvage its deal with japan's nippon steel. it's unclear what exactly was discussed at the meeting, though. the president is set to meet with japan's prime minister today. the president also meeting with the chairman of fedex, fred smith, yesterday as well. sticking with dc reports this morning, the white house is working on an executive order to fire thousands of health and human services workers, with the order being signed as soon as this week. as next week, i should say. the news coming just days after a federal judge paused the deadline for federal workers to accept trump's buyout

offer outside of amazon. two more stocks on the move, including take-two interactive, popping in the premarket despite missing fiscal q3 sales estimates. also looking at expedia also moving higher after a q4 earnings beat, and it reinstated its quarterly dividend at $0.40. shares of expedia right now up just about 9.5%. investors are preparing for the big monthly jobs report before the open. take a look at futures right now. it's kind of muted all day or all morning i should say. ahead of that report similar story right now. the dow up fractionally. the s&p and the nasdaq down fractionally. with that let's bring in simeon hyman global investment strategist at proshares advisors. simeon good morning. great to have you here in studio. >> thanks for. >> having me. i think we got to start with the jobs report coming up later today. what are your expectations? how do you see the market reacting to what the numbers that we get. i think the market's. >> going to hold up. you know. we've seen the economy hold up in many ways. >> one of my. >> favorites is that. >> ism manufacturing. >> actually beat expectations just a. >> few days ago. >> and that's a broadening. >> out of the economy. >> so i. >> think we'll see a.

>> decent jobs number. and of course earnings 12%. >> year over year growth in the s&p 500 with roughly. >> three quarters. >> of the companies in. >> that's decent news. >> what do you make of what we've seen with mega-cap tech this week? we've seen some weakness. and still the markets are on pace for a winning week. is that surprising at all? >> it's an important broadening. >> but it is also. >> a sign of risk. the tech sector is still. >> in the red. so far. >> this year. >> so that's. >> good news in terms of. >> a broadening. but you're still talking about a tech sector that's over 30% of. >> the s&p 500. we see the. >> amazon results that are a little. bit a little bit of a disappointment. >> so there's clearly some. >> risks there. you're not the only one talking about that broadening i think that leads us to your word of the day. what is it i'm. going with mid-caps. >> yeah. if you it. >> is historically. >> the. >> sweet spot. it has outperformed large. >> and. >> small cap stocks over. >> the decades. if you look at valuations, you're looking at $0.50. >> on. >> the dollar for mid-caps. that hasn't happened to small, even though small. has also underperformed. why? because mid-caps are showing up with earnings growth. >> when we're talking about mid-caps, let's talk about small

caps. they're more domestically focused. a lot of leverage. what are the characteristics of mid-caps that you think are going to make them work going forward? >> well, you. >> also have. >> a similar domestic focus. so you have. >> 75% of. >> revenues domestically. >> that's really important. >> but what you have. >> is higher quality. >> than the small cap fund. on small caps. >> you have losses. >> you have negative earnings. >> all those things. you don't have them in mid-caps. >> you got to pick for us. what's your pick for us today russell. >> it's. >> our proshares etf. >> it's the s&p 400. >> dividend aristocrats. >> people think about dividend. >> growth in large cap. >> but it's incredibly applicable to mid-cap. you've got them. >> at a discount. >> you have a. >> 2.7% dividend yield. and you have higher and stronger. >> fundamentals than the rest of the s&p 400. >> so is the idea here. people are going to dividends as kind of a flight to safety. you're looking for income with a lot of volatility. >> we're looking for quality. so it's dividend. >> growth not dividend yield. you don't have to go all the way and all the way into. >> the cheap stocks. >> but consistent dividend growth is where you get strong balance sheets. high return on

assets strong earnings growth. >> simeon hyman your pick for us today the eagle etf. thank you very much. always good to see you. all right. that's going to do it for us here on worldwide exchange. squawk box starts right now. >> good morning. >> shares of amazon. >> they're down. >> but paring their losses overnight after some. >> disappointing guidance. >> we'll show you what the company. >> said about. >> advertising the cloud. >> and demand and spending for ai. >> the trump. administration's buyout. deadline for federal. workers is on hold. a judge extended. >> that deadline. >> through at least monday. and it's jobs friday. we'll get you ready for the january employment report. the potential. >> market reaction and. >> the implications for the federal reserve and. what it does with rates. february 7th, 2025. and squawk box begins right now.

>> good morning everybody. >> welcome to squawk box right here on cnbc. >> we're live. >> from the nasdaq. >> market site in times square. i'm becky quick. >> along. with joe. >> kernan and andrew. >> ross sorkin. on this friday morning right now it looks like the us. equity futures are mixed. that's the way they ended the session yesterday. you did have the s&p 500. >> and the nasdaq. >> up for the third session in a row. the dow was. >> off by about a quarter percentage point. >> right now it looks like the dow has. >> indicated up by 11. >> nasdaq is off. >> by 18. >> the s&p. >> is down by two. but guys we are up. >> for the week. even though you. started the week. >> with so many. >> concerns about what was going to happen. >> with the tariffs. at one point. >> the futures. >> down. by about 1000 points on the dow. we'll continue to. >> watch and see where things head. but we. >> are in. >> positive territory for the week. >> treasury. >> treasury yields right now. >> the. >> ten year is at 443. the two years at 4