watched treasuries i think moderate to some bit for 48. that's a little higher. and for 25 is where the two year stands on these things. it's been a wild week. it's been a lot of fun. and joe we're very glad to have you back. >> i know i'm glad to be back. i'm glad to be back. but i'm thinking five days next week i got to. >> it's going to be. >> a long week. i got to bone up. i got to bone up because i'm not totally back. >> join us. >> for that. hope you feel better over the weekend. right now it's time for squawk on the street. >> good friday morning. welcome to squawk on the street. i'm carl. quintanilla with david faber, sara eisen at post nine of the. >> new york. >> stock exchange. >> cramer has the. >> morning off. >> futures do lose some opening gains as. >> yields pop on this hotter than expected wage number in the jobs data. >> although we're back. >> in the green biggest year on year rise since last february 10th. >> year just south. >> of four. >> and a half. >> a roadmap begins with big tech's big. i spend. >> amazon calling. >> it a once in a lifetime

opportunity. >> meta shares. >> continue their. >> record run. >> eyeing 15. straight days now of gains. >> plus. doge may be stalled. >> federal courts are. >> blocking elon musk's team from accessing. some treasury. >> payments data, and they are. delaying the federal worker. >> buyout deadline at least until next week. >> and energy's trade war risks we are joined by the brand new u.s. energy secretary to. >> discuss it all this hour. >> let's begin with market reaction, though. >> to the. >> jobs number today. 143 is. >> a little. >> bit shy of the 170 we were expecting. >> but the unemployment rate does. >> fall to 4.0. >> the wage number. >> 5/10 looking for 3/10. >> and then the year on year at 4.1 did cause some. >> reaction in treasuries. >> headline number. >> a little bit softer. >> but details. >> beneath the surface. show a strong labor market. i think that that's your headline this morning. what's the bond market reacting to. well wages with that 0.5% monthly. >> increase as you. >> said, was the most we've gotten. in about. >> a year. >> so now we're at 4.1%. >> wage growth.

>> from last year. it's a little bit hot. >> if you go. >> beneath the surface where the jobs are, where the jobs. >> aren't. >> look, i think. >> you know, you. >> see it in the in the services sector for now, government, i noted, added jobs, government sector employment rising 32,000. which is actually strong and could be the last of the strong reports. if you know, some of those federal buy. >> outs. >> go into effect. health care did the most hiring as far as. >> sectors retail trade. >> social assistance, all strong jobs were lost in. >> mining. >> quarrying, oil and gas extraction, industry. education and health. big part of the of the. jump and manufacturing added 3000 payrolls, which actually jibes with the tick up we've seen in manufacturing lately. although it could be preparing for tariffs. you know, there's been a lot of burst of activity. >> in effect. bottom line doesn't change anything for the fed. >> the fed. >> is on. >> hold. >> and the fed's got to feel good. >> about being on hold after. this number. because you know there's. some risks in here like

a hotter. wage number when it comes to their inflation story. and while the headline number was a little bit. weaker it's. nothing too dramatic. you still have a 4%. >> unemployment rate. >> and that is a fact. >> and it's. >> very strong. >> not to mention. >> the positive. >> revisions last two months up almost. >> 100 k. >> interesting. you're right about the vertical leisure. >> hospitality down 3000. >> we have. >> seen some negative months for leisure. >> and. >> hospitality but it's. >> not that common. >> no. >> and that's. >> been a huge job. >> gainer post covid. so you know we're still trying to figure out where the baseline is after covid on some of these sectors and consumer spending behaviors as well, you know, trying to adapt to what's going on. the other, you know, this was kind of a weird one because there were so many. revisions and population estimates. right now. the household survey for january has these new population estimates, and it looks like a big jump in the size of the overall labor force, more. >> than. >> 2 million people, which is only to say that it reflects here, incorporating the increased estimates of immigrants that economists have

now been talking about, and finally starting to show up in these population estimates. we'll see what happens to that, of course, as well as we've seen this crackdown. but overall, you know. nothing to worry about necessarily. as far. >> we knew. >> the job market was cooling. we knew that the fed policy has been tight for a while. but overall, if you look at a 4% unemployment rate, i mean, you go back to that. that's what neel kashkari just went back to as well with all the details and all the noise. and he said that shows that we're still in a good place. >> yeah david my favorite. >> stat with the. >> exception of january of 1970. >> the unemployment rate is. lower today than it was for. every single month of the. >> 70s. >> the 80s and the 90s. wow. yeah. >> it's really good. >> amazing. >> that is amazing. >> i would. >> not have known that. >> and you know what's even more impressive? it came. >> the move in. >> the unemployment rate lower actually came as the participation rate increased. so more people in the labor market to 62.6%. it makes it even more impressive that we got a drop.

>> all right. jobs to amazon. of course, our other. big story of the morning. and we're going to have actually some important news for you as well in a moment involving softbank and openai. but let's talk about shares of amazon because they are moving lower in the premarket. fourth quarter results. exceeded street estimates. >> it's the revenue. >> growth at aws that was perhaps a bit shy of consensus. but really perhaps the current quarter guidance, not the reported quarter. but the current quarter guidance that came in below it, at least many analysts have been looking for. amazon says it does plan more than 100 billion in capex this year. about 104, 105 billion is where a lot of the analysts are. now. of course, that's overarching doesn't break out specific spending on ai. but here's what andy jassy had to say about capex spending on last night's earnings call. >> the vast. >> majority of. that capex. >> spend is on ai for aws. it's, you know, the way the aws

business works and the way the cash. cycle works is that the faster we grow, the more capex we end up spending, because we have. >> to. >> procure data center and hardware and chips and networking gear ahead of when we're able to monetize it. >> so vast majority and i want to get to spending in a moment because of course, that has been a focus for us these last couple of weeks, particularly after that deep sikh news, although people are starting to call it more deep fake in terms of what it actually meant for capex spending. not in some ways unsurprising. i mean, the quarter reported was a very strong one operating income, $21.2 billion. it was up 61% year over year. you know, they did have, again, a revenue number of almost $188 billion for the quarter, sara up 10%. and the dollar. i knew you'd like this strengthening through the quarter, actually, you know, 700 million more foreign exchange headwinds they anticipated than they had anticipated in guidance originally. >> yeah, that's. >> going to be a hit. and potentially why i haven't read one analyst report that's been

bullish on amazon. that's changing their tune today. they're all doubling down. they're saying. >> this is a good entry. >> point for a stock. and actually the stock has recovered from after hours on maybe some of the disappointing internals on guidance. but the capex you know it is interesting, david, that okay $105 billion. >> now they're at 105 vast majority. you heard andy jassy say will be spent on ai. there's they're spending over time. and you can see how much it's gone up. and then we have this chart from melius this morning that i think just wraps it up because we've talked so often, obviously, now that we've gotten earnings from microsoft, from meta, from alphabet, and of course from amazon, well, you can see no one came close to even the same spending. they all went up. and in fact, more than had been anticipated by the analysts who follow these companies. so you're talking about almost incrementally, another 25 billion above what had been anticipated. and there's you know, they he's got microsoft at 95 billion. and all the rest are sort of as reported

as well. meta 63 there's alphabet. and then of course you add in amazon. now not all of amazon is going to be in ai. but what does that mean for nvidia has been a key question, particularly given that stocks sell off after the deep sea news. >> well, it has to be good news right nvidia marvell broadcom. >> broadcom all of. >> them at least for a trade after they sold off on deep sync. with all of this complete excitement. >> and i mean my understanding is 100. now that's not the latest chip. but the spot prices on them are higher than they were previous to the deep sync news as well. all this spending, you know, and the questions about deep sea didn't just extend to capex and whether that would continue to move up at as we see a rapid rate. but also, what would it mean for the competitors, such as open ai and the large language models? there is that argument that sort of says, well, maybe they're all going to be very similar in what they can do, and therefore they'll be commoditized. but we can tell you right now softbank doesn't see it that way because i can confirm that they are in

the final stages very close to finalizing what is going to be a $40 billion investment in open ai. now, there had been previous reporting on this that openai was looking to raise as much as 40 billion, although not all of it would be directly from softbank. but the plan right now is 40 billion primary investment, 260 billion pre-money valuation. they'll pay this money into openai over the next 12 to 24 months. my understanding is it will be as soon as this spring that the first payment is made, and there is the opportunity for softbank to syndicate as much as 10 billion of the 40 billion. obviously, openai is going to have to agree with them as to who would be the buyers of that $300 billion. is the post-money valuation on openai under this? and of course, it would make softbank conceivably their most important investor. they my understanding is they want to get to as much as 15% of the company that would exceed

microsoft's ownership. now it gets complex because if you recall, openai still is a not for profit. it is in this transition mode. unclear exactly how long that's going to take from not for profit to profit. and so your cap tables, as you say, are kind of all over the place. there was a you were capped in terms of your how much profit you could have under the previous administration. there's sort of a waterfall. it gets kind of complicated. what's not complicated is the idea that that man there to the right of sam altman, who's at the podium, masa, he wants in here in a big way, guys. and this is clearly going to be one of the key investments that softbank makes. some will question, well where's the money going to come from. are they going to have to sell some arm or are they going to have to sell perhaps some of the 18 billion or so that they own in t-mobile? still, although my understanding is they also have a balance sheet that does allow them to take on more debt. and, you know, debt in japan is pretty cheap. >> and he's raised. >> money before from partners

like the saudis, for instance. >> private investment fund, of course, as well. i don't think that's part of this. this is softbank money. this is not vision fund money or anything like that. that's fully this is this is a soft. >> but it. >> definitely is going to be part of the. 500 billion that he promised donald trump as the president, he would invest in america in ai. when he came out. remember, trump asked him in the news conference to double it to a trillion. >> i think. >> no, no, no, he it was 100 billion. and he said to and trump said 200 billion. the 500 billion is what stargate is going to potentially spend. >> excuse me. there's so many hundreds of billions. >> so it's an open air. >> part of. >> that, a part of stargate along with oracle and softbank. and this is a very significant influx, influx of cash for openai and validating their own market value at this point. a private company, of course. and as i said, not even a for profit company has yet. carl, in the wake of this deep set news that seems to be fading but has certainly had an impact, at the very least on shares of nvidia still, which have been creeping back. >> yeah, we continue to keep

track of the capex revisions. microsoft was now up for amazon up 22. google up 30. meta up 18. and jassy. >> said last night he's. >> like, you know, never. have we seen an. >> instance where. >> technology gets cheaper and the overall spend decreases. it just doesn't happen. whether you want to call that a pareto optimum or jevons paradox. a lot of economic theory working behind this dynamic right. >> now. >> they're all in, and they all see the opportunity there as being as big, if not bigger than what it was with the internet. and you're not going to see anybody back off. it would appear. >> right. >> and for amazon, i think, you know, the analyst at least that i'm reading this morning seemed. >> to see. >> a straight line between that and the payoff that an amazon would get in terms of profitability and growth around aws, the cloud business, but also the retail business, you know, the north american retail operating income margins were all time high of 8% faster delivery speeds, for instance. the retail business continues to be healthy, and analysts are

excited about the potential of all the spending around gen ai and how that will give them an edge there. when it comes to efficiencies. >> it's interesting. we've we've gotten the. hyperscalers on the tape, the names. >> that david's. >> alluding to, the dells, the marvell's, the broadcom's, those are all still on the come next couple of weeks. yes. so we'll see how much of this is filtering. >> down at least to their forecast. >> for the year. you know, there is this potentially this change in terms of, well, maybe you don't need quite as much compute power for training. and obviously training is sort of coming off to a certain extent. they've kind of run out of data. they're now talking about synthetic data to help train these models. but inference is where it's all at. i mean, think about the, you know, the 0.3 model that's that's out from openai back to them as well. and what you're going to need in terms of compute power for that seems to be unaffected. take a listen to jassy on the call last night, where he was talking about sort of some of the assumptions that have been made over the last couple of weeks after deep sync. >> one of the interesting things

over the last couple of weeks is sometimes people make the assumptions that if you're able to decrease the cost of any type of technology component, in this case, we're really talking about inference that somehow it's going to lead to less total spend in technology. and we just we have never seen that to be the case. i think that is very much what's going to happen here in ai, which is the cost of inference will substantially come down. you know what you heard the last couple of weeks that if deepfake is a piece of it, but everybody is working on this, i believe the cost of inference will meaningfully come down. i think it will make it much easier for companies to be able to infuse all their applications with inference and with generative ai. >> of course, the continued question again, given that openai valuation now at 300 billion, is the large language models, these providers

anthropic, openai, deep seek, gemini is there, you know, are they offering the same thing and what will distinguish them? you clearly have to believe it's going to be the applications, and that their engineers are going to be able to come up with applications, not just for the consumer, but perhaps even more importantly, for the enterprise. >> what alex karp said of palantir, they're commodity. he's been using the word commoditized to describe the large language models. you know, it is interesting how every different company, whether it's ibm or palantir or even an amazon, has pointed to deep tech and said, actually, this is good for us. this shows this shows that our strategy and what we've been doing is bearing fruit. right. arm said it yesterday on this show. so wake up moment. and i feel like there was a lot to get off their chest. these ceos and these companies, after the freak out that we saw in the in the market. >> right. yeah. there'll be a there's going to be some free riders who are building their llms on other people's hard work and money. and so it's going to be up to the latter group to establish, as. >> david said, what's.

>> special about that? when we. >> come back, the. >> latest on the trump. administration's buyout offer to federal employees, as that deadline is now pushed to monday. also, an exclusive with the president's new energy secretary, chris wright. >> brian sullivan. >> is going to have that interview. a lot of. >> movers to get. >> to on this last. >> batch of earnings. >> for the week. take two. elf. >> affirm. >> pens. >> expedia. >> futures. >> hanging on to green. stay with us. (vo) weight loss is changing. for so long, i felt stuck on repeat. i tried, and tried again. lost weight, gained it back. but zepbound means change. zepbound is for adults with obesity, to help lose weight and keep it off. activating 2 naturally occurring hormone receptors in my body, zepbound works differently. it's changing what i believe is possible when it comes to weight loss. it's changing how much weight i lose. up to 48 pounds. and it's changing what happens.

don't take if allergic to it, or if you or someone in your family had medullary thyroid cancer or multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2. tell your doctor if you get a lump or swelling in your neck. stop zepbound and call your doctor if you have severe stomach pain or a serious allergic reaction. severe side effects may include inflamed pancreas or gallbladder problems. tell your doctor if you are experiencing vision changes, taking a sulfonylurea or insulin, having suicidal thoughts, if you're nursing, pregnant, plan to be, or taking birth control pills. side effects include nausea, diarrhea, and vomiting, which can cause dehydration and worsen kidney problems. zepbound means change. and when it comes to weight loss... change is good. discover the weight loss you could be bound for. talk to your doctor about zepbound.

show, mad money. jim cramer gives you much more than you would. ever get from any advisor. >> jim cramer is an excellent teacher for someone that wants to learn how to manage their own money. he teaches how. >> to. >> invest versus just what trades. >> to make. >> we teach club members. >> how to. >> invest the. >> right way. get invested. join for all those making it big out there... ...shouldn't your mobile service be able to keep up with you?

get wifi speeds up to a gig at home and on the go. introducing powerboost, only from xfinity mobile. now that's big. xfinity internet customers, cut your mobile bill in half vs. t-mobile, verizon, and at&t for your first year. plus, ask how to get the new samsung galaxy s25+ on us. monday. our megan cassella has the latest. and megan, that's one of about ten stories out of dc this morning. >> there's always several carl, but that's right. >> this is a move. >> that puts elon musk and the trump. >> administration's attempts to. >> offer buyouts. >> or deferred resignations. >> more specifically. >> to the federal workforce. >> on pause, at least. >> for the weekend. >> a federal judge. >> in boston. >> ruling yesterday. >> to delay the deadline for that offer. >> from thursday until monday. now.

>> this is. >> the lawsuit that federal employee. >> labor unions filed against the. >> government. >> arguing that. >> the deferred resignation. >> offer was both. >> unfair and illegal. >> illegal because the. >> government was. >> promising to pay. >> workers through september, when those. funds have not yet been appropriated by congress. so the delay is meant to give both sides. >> a chance to lay out. >> their arguments and. >> the. >> judge more time to. >> process them. >> the next. >> step now will be. >> a hearing on. >> the union's request for a temporary restraining order that would more fully block the program on monday afternoon. and in the meantime, nbc news reporting that more than 60,000 people had accepted the offer. so far, it's not a huge sliver of the overall federal workforce, but does still show some considerable interest in it. now, the white house is reacting positively to the delay yesterday, saying that they were grateful to the judge for extending the deadline so that more people would have a chance to accept the offer. and this could simply extend the deadline. but it could also be the first step towards blocking the effort entirely. the federal workforce has strong civil service protections around it.

they've been there for centuries, and they're meant to prevent mass layoffs, a way of making sure that a new president can't replace the entire government with political allies. but this so-called fork in the road offer appeared to be a way to try to work around those protections. we'll see if it's successful. guys. >> do they have the power. >> to do. >> layoffs if they don't get as many buyouts as they want? if ultimately, this resumes. >> that's something that's going to be challenged. it seems like these protections are there to make sure that they can't do at least widespread layoffs. so we'll have to see. i'm sure they'll try to find ways to do at least piecemeal agency by agency. that's going to be the next fight. i think if this buyout doesn't offer, doesn't go through, and even if it does, that might be what we see next. the unions are already gearing up to fight on that front as well. >> okay. >> megan, thank you very much. fast moving story, just one of the many in washington today. still to come, shares of pinterest are soaring on better than expected user growth and a

revenue milestone up 20% premarket. do not miss a live interview with the ceo coming in the next hour. taking another look at futures as we head closer to the opening bell. reacting to a mixed jobs report. headline numbers soft unemployment rate goes down to 4%, wages strong, s&p futures up four. so we've improved just a little bit from where we were little bit from where we were post the jobs power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis, help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. ♪♪ with powerful, easy-to-use tools power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley

templeton. we've been a firm. >> in. >> motion for over. >> 75 years. >> always innovating. >> today, we're. >> a. >> leader in public and private. >> markets, digital assets. >> and custom tax management. >> empowering advisors. >> with solutions to. >> build the portfolios. >> of the future. today, franklin. >> templeton, your trusted partner for what's ahead. >> cell therapy is transforming how. >> we treat many. >> diseases. >> meat, fiber, biologics, nasdaq. >> fb, lg 160 patents issued and pending. leveraging a diverse. library of commercial use, fibroblast. cells that naturally fight disease and repair tissue fiber biologics is developing a new and innovative cell therapy platform to treat. >> chronic diseases, addressing. >> multi-billion dollar markets now. >> advancing clinical trials for wound care and multiple wound care and multiple sclerosis. (man 1) we're standing up for our right to be lazy. (woman 1) by sitting down. (man 2) and reclining back. (woman 2) we work full-time and parent full-time. (man 3) we will be reclined until further notice.

(woman 3) it's our right to let the dishes soak overnight. (man 4) and to mow the lawn... tomorrow-ish. (man 5) we proudly declare that yes, we are still watching that. (woman 4) and no, we won't be cooking tonight. (man 6) we, the lazy, are taking back lazy... (woman 5) ...by getting comfy on our la-z-boy furniture. (vo) la-z-boy. long live the lazy. investment opportunities are everywhere you turn. do you charge forward? freeze in your tracks? or, let curiosity light the way. at t. rowe price, we ask smart questions about opportunities like advances in healthcare and how these innovations will create a healthier world tomorrow. better questions. better outcomes.

perspective and high profile interviews. scan to watch cnbc's crypto world, sponsored by crypto.com. >> a few of the leaders on the s&p premarket are definitely earnings related. expedia is up on a beat on sales and eps bookings were ahead. they reinstate the dividend better than expected travel demand and then take two. also, with the news that gta six is on track for the fall, we'll get the opening bell final opening bell of the week. and don't forget you can catch. >> us anytime, anywhere. >> just listen to and follow the squawk on the street opening bell podcast. >> last chance to be on the disruptor 50 list. is your startup disrupting the status quo? scan this code or go to cnbc.com slash disruptors to gina costa... looking simply stunning... what's this? she's opening her fidelity app.... to buy that stock... with no fees or commissions...

because what does gina got? gina's got the look. that never gets old. talk about easier investing. nate jones... steps up to the mirror... lines things up... towels off... checks his fidelity app... looks to outside analysts to get a second opinion. nate likes what he sees... same page? -[ dog barks ] and he places the trade... before anyone hears him talking to himself. [ dog whines ] buy u.s. stocks and etfs for as little as $1, with no commissions. talk about easier investing. gina costa... looking simply stunning... what's this? she's opening her fidelity app.... to buy that stock... with no fees or commissions... because what does gina got? gina's got the look. that never gets old. talk about easier investing. best business. it's not a nine-to-five proposition. it's all day and into the night. it's all the things that keep this world turning.

it's the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. trust. hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. powering more businesses than anyone. powering possibilities. -what've you got there, larry? -time machine. you gonna go back and see how the pyramids were built or something? nope. ellen and i want to go on vacation, so i'm going to go back to last week and buy a winning lottery ticket. -can i come? -only room for one. how am i getting home? sittin' on my lap like last time, ronald. fine, but i'm bringing this. [ whirring ] alright. or...you could try one of these savings options. the right money moves aren't as far-fetched as you think. there it is. see? told you it was going to all work out. thanks, future me.

we've been. navigating change for. 125 years, always looking forward, anticipating risks and trusted to manage over $1 trillion in. assets worldwide. solving for the needs of investors today. >> and tomorrow. >> that's the. >> power of nuveen. >> the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income alternatives and responsible investing. >> shares of meta continue their longest daily win streak ever, aiming for a. >> 15th consecutive. >> session of gains. we know mark zuckerberg visited the white house this week. the buffet desk i love this. the most glaring observation of the week. >> the mag. >> seven have been whittled down to the mag one, because meta is the only member to rise on results. >> i'm going to say it stands in contrast. >> to what we've.

>> seen in some of the tesla action this week on some fundamental news on the microsoft and the alphabet reactions to earnings, and now amazon two, which are all a little bit weaker. i don't think any fundamental stories are changed. they're all spending tons of money on on capital expenditures. they're all going all in on ai. we don't know what zuckerberg is talking about in the white house, but he's very active in conversations there. >> yeah, no. meta's outperformance is notable in many ways. obviously, it's been a long period here in terms of first, the year of efficiency, then followed by just significant announcements since then, even with being all in on capex, the way so many of their competitors are, obviously they've approached the large language models with llama and an open source way different than some of the competitors. and then there's the ray-bans, carl, which they're going to be making a big deal about, apparently at the super bowl as well. >> we'll talk about. >> some super bowl marketing, as i think the going rate for 30s

is almost $8 million, right? pretty much in line with last year. >> openai is going to. >> have no. >> trouble now. they're raising all this money from masa as we report. so they're going to advertise to. >> let's get the opening bell. >> on. >> the. >> cnbc realtime exchange at the big board. it's cement maker titan america celebrating an ipo today. ceo bill zarqawi's will be on the exchange later on at the nasdaq. it's a good projects helping families in washington. dc's largest housing project. as we look for some moderate gains here at the open, we'll keep our eye on yields as four and a half continues to be a big focal point for at least the bulls. >> so yeah, i. >> mean people are excited a little bit the bulls on bonds lower yields and what they've seen. we've broken through some key trend lines. and a below 4.5% is a big deal considering where we were in in mid january, which was bumping up against 5% and 4.8%, and people were worried about higher for longer. it's significant that the

treasury secretary, scott bessent, wants lower for longer, and he's focused on the market and he's focused on inflationary dynamics and fiscal, you know, tightness to do that rather than pressuring the fed. the fed's on hold. and i think that they're just further evidence from today's jobs number is that that's the right place for them to be. again softer headline number. but strong internals like an unemployment rate like more job participation, like hotter wages. we got a 0.5% increase in the monthly wage number, which was the most in a month. so all of that i don't think changes anything for the fed. so it's notable to see the bond market absorb it pretty well and stocks too. i mean there's no there's no worry like outsized worry that there's job weakness or that there's inflationary pressure. i think you've got a picture of a little bit of both and not enough to move the needle. >> right. interesting note out of michael hartnett at bofa today, sort of looking at why european stocks are outpacing american stocks so far for the

year. he argues they're trying to investors are trying to outrun what he calls an end to us exceptionalism. and it is strange that germany's the dax all time highs, even though the economy is barely growing. >> uk to. >> all time high, economy barely growing. look. two reasons they're getting weaker currencies, which is helpful for their competitiveness and their exports. and they're going to get more central bank easing, which we know the market likes. and that's that's been the case. i mean, the other reason is just that everyone was so bearish and positioning is so lopsided. and so you know in davos it was like so much pessimism. christine lagarde even used the word existential crisis when it comes to europe and as an investment destination because they're just not competitive with things like i write right now, but also economic growth and lots of regulations. >> i mean, new highs, yes. but the multiples, carl, are still, when you look at germany, are still incredibly low reflecting, of course, a lot of the

challenges. i mean, the german automakers, we've talked about it many times, whether it's their input costs in terms of energy and what that looks like, china, where they obviously relied a lot on high margin product being sold and it's just not as strong. tesla also not seeing as much strength in china with the latest numbers there. >> as well. down 11 people are starting to tabulate these monthly declines on sales in spain down 70 plus. we mentioned france and germany yesterday. >> down 60%. >> registrations in california down for five straight quarters. and there's no good empirical data on why. but certainly elon musk, who by the way, is on the cover of the new cover of time. >> i saw that. >> behind the oval, the resolute desk in the oval office. whether or not his insertion into political and government it systems has anything to do with this remains to be seen. >> yeah. i mean, i think in china it's probably just more actual competition in the same way that apple sees it to a

certain extent. on the handset side, we've talked often about the ability of the chinese automakers to offer a product at a very compelling price. that has got a lot of a lot of the bells and whistles, so to speak, that that buyers expect. and so byd and so many others there really have have an ability. obviously, they fled their own market and then they flood the world's markets because they're making so many more automobiles, frankly, than certainly their own domestic consumption can, can rely on. >> yeah. but again, is it fundamentals when it comes to tesla or is it the self-driving future of robotaxis? i think that's always. >> i mean, musk changes the conversation away from sales. he has to because it's not a particularly pretty picture. right. so it's full self-driving and robots that and that has served him well. and the stock has hung in there despite what in a different environment, i guess you could argue would be a different reaction to numbers like the ones we're seeing, which obviously point to a much

lower growth rate in terms of tesla automobiles sales. >> speaking of reactions, i mean, every day there's this like big winner of earnings. today it's expedia, which is at the top of the market right now. solid room night growth of 12%. that was four points ahead of consensus. i mean good earnings numbers as well. ebitda was ahead. the analysts expect continued margin improvement. and then the ceo sounding very bullish, saying travel demand remained healthy in q4 despite price increases in hotels, vacation rentals and are like last quarter, international demand was stronger than the u.s, with booked room nights growing high single digits in the u.s, low single digits in europe, and high teens for the rest of the world. that stock being rewarded up, i don't know, 16% right now. wow. jibes with what we heard from chris nassetta at hilton yesterday, who was also very bullish, didn't want to talk about any sign and decrease in demand on the business side, on the leisure side on international didn't say it. even the geopolitical stuff that used to

sort of plague the industry and travel wasn't happening. >> yeah, same story with royal caribbean and we'll get marriott next week. but it's pretty clear the travel thesis has not bent much at all lately. >> no. everybody seems to be happy to, to continue to spend. another stock worth mentioning this morning is pinterest. i don't think we've gotten to it up 20% after earnings, again being applauded by much of the street. morgan stanley has a note out this morning calling with a question mark, but saying the next gen ai beneficiary, the pipeline of ad and gpu enabled products set to come speak to pins opportunity, they say, to drive durably stronger than expected engagement, revenue and free cash flow. and you can see sort of some of the reasons behind that. sarah i don't know. do you use that platform at all? >> i really don't, and i am curious what people use it for. all my friends that are like interior designers or wedding planners. i mean, that's the that's their go to market. but increasingly young kids. bill

ready. we're going to talk to you in the next hour. i spoke to him in davos a few weeks ago. they were in quiet period, but he's just really trying to become a positive example of social media. like doesn't have to be that the algorithms pick up on negative, harmful content and distribute it out. he wants to be a place for this. and so they've really led the charge, for instance, in trying to get phones out of schools and that sort of thing. also, just in terms of the stock price reaction, a lot of the commentary suggests it was a big surprise, the beaten and raise from pinterest, and it had been a stock that had underperformed over the last year, especially if you look at competitors like meta, if you want to call that a competitor. right. so potentially that's why you got such a good setup and a big reaction. keeping an eye on shares of amazon. as sarah mentioned earlier when we were taking a look in the premarket, it is it is down but not as much as it was directly after numbers, as we've said, the current quarter or the quarter that was reported was quite

strong. it was guidance for the current quarter. and, you know, aws, which does contribute most of the profitability at the company, obviously does not support a growth rate as high as that of either microsoft or google in terms of their cloud efforts, but is still chugging along at high teens growth rate, which which is not bad given the level of profitability as well. not to mention their advertising business, which we don't often stop at. the numbers are extraordinary. to think that barely existed any number of years ago, and now they're doing, what, 18 billion or so, right? >> a quarter third largest ad. >> company. >> third largest ad. >> nothing. i have nothing amazing. and we talked about some of the expectations yesterday but certainly got blown away, especially on capex. you know, it's not working today. is makeup elf and ulta huge losers? the elf guidance was no good. several downgrades today. and the things that they attribute the seasonal softness to consumer distractions, the wildfires, the worry about

tiktok going away, the opportunity to present in social media. it just was less room for it. >> this is a social media brand. yeah. i mean, it's a brand that is built and makeup has been that we've we saw that early on on youtube and now into tiktok. so clearly that's having an impact i don't know the wildfires also tariffs has been a big deal. i know they have diversified their supply chain away from china. but it still they have significant exposure there. and there's exposure everywhere. so that's got to be an uncertainty that's been weighing on on this stock. but overall. >> there's nowhere to hide though here. estee lauder obviously has been a poor performer for a long period of time, in part on largely on china weakness for some time. >> and asia travel. yeah. management changes. >> but this had been one of the seeming beneficiaries for some period of time, at least in terms of their market share loss. that hadn't it or no. >> yes. yeah. because it was because it was really working and viral and lower price points. and actually i will say

terry amin, the ceo, did talk about the tariff situation on the call. and he said, look, last time around, if we have to raise prices by a dollar or two, we still do well, we still compete, which has been some of the some of what we've heard from the likes of, of other low cost producers. its 10% across the board, so everybody gets it. >> speaking of that, let's get to washington where brian sullivan has a special guest for us this morning. hey, sully. >> hey, carl. >> thank you and good morning. yes, we are here in a cnbc exclusive with the new secretary of energy that is chris wright. he's the former ceo of liberty energy services, the founder. >> as well, former board member of nuclear company oklo. >> and we appreciate you giving. us this exclusive. mr. secretary, thank you very. >> much, brian. >> thrilled to be here with you. >> all right. we're going to talk about oil. we're going to talk about tariffs. we'll talk about nuclear. >> talk about all. >> that stuff. but i've got to. >> talk about what everybody's. >> talking about here in. >> dc, which is this. >> cost cutting. >> brigade, this d.o.j. group that was reports. >> out that. >> it was 23 year. >> olds. >> poking around.

>> computer systems here. nobody seems to know what's going on. can you give us on. >> the. >> record clarity about who. >> these people are and exactly what they're doing. >> in computer systems? because literally i. >> want to talk about what matters. >> but this. >> is. >> all anybody else. seems to be talking about. >> yeah, well. >> let's address that. look, i'm excited about that. look, the government is old and maybe a. >> little. >> bit stodgy. and we've. >> got some. >> young kids think think young. >> gun management consultants coming in to take. >> a critical. >> look at how. >> things are run. >> can we. >> do. >> things a little. >> bit more efficiently? >> are our systems as efficient as they should be? >> i've heard these rumors. they're like. seeing our nuclear. >> secrets or all that. >> none of that is. true at all. >> they don't. >> have security. >> what is true? who are. these people. >> and what are they doing? >> they're part. >> of. >> a. >> team assembled by d.o.j. friends. >> in elon's. >> broader circle that are very good at it and very good at systems, and they're just. >> doing. >> a critical evaluation of how do we do things today and come up with some ideas about maybe how we could do things better. >> we know. >> who they are. they have you said they have badges. absolutely. they're in. >> the systems. >> they're not.

>> random people. >> on the internet that. >> are i want to be clear on who these people are. because there is. >> a fear, like they have my social security number. they might have access. >> to the codes. >> as you said, they don't have anybody's. >> proprietary information, but. >> i know exactly. >> who they are. we have three people in our building run through, checked by our security, and they have access to look around, talk to people and. >> give us some good. >> feedback on how things are going. i think nothing to be worried about here. >> okay, we'll. >> move. on from that. >> get to. >> the topical issues price of oil. the president says drill, baby drill. you're a you're a guy. that ran a fracking company. how do we balance out. >> bringing down. >> the price of gasoline, adding to us production, but yet not destroying the oil and gas investments as well that the cnbc audience. >> talks about. >> and looks at every day? >> yeah. >> of course it's. >> a business and prices are dictated by supply and demand. but we've had four years of an administration that's done everything. >> it could. >> to raise the cost to produce a barrel of oil. we're not sure if you can get a permit, you

know, to drill here or it's going. >> to take 18 months. >> you've got uncertainty. you've got to build. pipelines or gathering lines to move that product. >> to market. >> well, we're not. >> sure if you can do that. >> you've got to do another study, another this. so when you add to costs, of course. >> you hurt. >> the economics. now we're going to have a more efficient operating environment. i think we're going to see some efficiencies from scale, some efficiencies from certainty and more, more credible capital markets. we've tried to starve the oil and gas industry globally, somehow thinking that's going to help climate change. there's been a lot of nonsense. and i think the agenda of this administration, this president, is to bring back common sense. >> can we. >> have lower oil and gas prices and still have stocks that. >> are not much. >> lower than they are. >> right now? >> oh, absolutely. >> look, if you. >> lower the cost of operations, there's a lot of fat in the cost of operations. if you lower the cost of operations, that's going to that's going to flow through to lower prices but not

necessarily lower profits. >> and that margin you think can remain steady and thus hold up because you are the ceo of a. >> publicly or. >> were of a publicly traded company and on. the board, which you have now left. >> of another publicly. >> traded company. >> absolutely. >> and look, it's capitalism and business is driven by profit motives that have driven innovation, that have driven efficiency and driven improvements in our system. and that's exactly what we want going forward in nuclear and natural gas and oil and geothermal, whatever it is. >> sarah and david and carl, right before we came to this interview talking about tariffs and the impact they were showing elf beauty stock down 25%. we know there's. >> a pause on the potential. >> candidate tariffs, 4.4 million. barrels a. >> day we bring in. >> from canada on average. much of that going to where you're from, the rocky mountain. >> the. >> denver area. >> the upper midwest. >> what is your view on. >> potential 10% tariffs? >> if it. >> does happen, what. >> is going to happen. to us oil and gasoline prices? >> well. >> look, obviously the canadian energy system is built,

integrated with the united states energy system. those pipelines come to us refineries that are tuned to refine that heavier, more viscous crude that canada produces. i don't think we're going to see that change as the as the president has said, this is a drug war. this is about concerns and security at our border. this is to get everyone's attention and focus on how can we reduce criminals and fentanyl and drugs that are a threat to american security coming in our borders. i think things are. moving in a productive direction. >> it doesn't sound like you think the tariffs would ultimately occur. >> i don't. >> know what the future will bring there, but i know we've got very productive dialogs right now and we're going to see a reduction in criminal activity coming across our border because you. >> i'm sure you have many friends in canada, as do i. >> and, you know, they're. >> they're angry about this. they're saying, well, you know what? if they want to tariff our oil, let's just ship it to vancouver and we're going to sell it overseas. i would call that the nuclear option. do you see anything like that occurring if the tariffs were to occur?

>> mr. secretary. >> it's hard to build new pipeline capacity. canada does have a west coast pipeline, which is running today and exporting oil to asia. but that's that's 10% or less than 10% of canadian oil production. but look, this president is aggressive. he doesn't like the status quo. he wants to change things and improve things. we had a lot of noise and sound and fury last time he was president about tariffs and inflation. inflation averaged less than 2% in the four years he was president. his his agenda is to lower prices and better american lives. i don't see any reason to believe that's not going to happen. >> you mentioned climate about a couple of minutes ago coming into this administration, one of the big question marks is what is going to happen to the loans and the grants and the ira inflation reduction act monies that may be already committed to wind, to solar. this matters to cnbc's audience, the stock market, a lot of these companies have seen their share price decline by a lot. what is your view on the inflation reduction act and wind and solar projects

and the monies that are required to produce them? so look. >> i'm i'm in this chair three days now. one of the things we are doing is looking at all the projects that are out there. where are the commitments? where are the uncommitted funds? what's the best use to grow the supply of affordable, reliable, secure american energy? tremendous opportunities there. so there's upside here as well. but one thing i will say, brian, that we will not do is follow the german model. and i think the last administration wanted to go down that road. germany spent a half $1 trillion, made their electricity 2 to 3 times more expensive, and they produced 20% less electricity today than they did 15 years ago. we're not going to go down that road. we want affordable, reliable, secure energy and reindustrialization of america, not de-industrialization of america. >> well, that's something i've obviously personally reported on many times for cnbc. been over there, seen what's happened. so

just to be clear, because let's be honest, a lot of wall street makes a lot of money investing in wind and solar and even nuclear. you were on the board of a nuclear company. so final question. should we say that that it's possible when big. >> wind and solar projects. >> are still going to be okay under they're not going to be starved. >> of. funds under. >> this administration? what's the what's the money situation regarding some of these renewable wind and solar and nuclear type energy programs? >> look, i think. >> you're. >> going to see continued development in the united states of all of these energy sources. but obviously, a flow of funds from this administration is all going to be about not what the energy technology is, but will it increase the supply of affordable, reliable, secure energy? will it better the lives of american consumers and encourage businesses to build things in america? >> well. >> finally, i'm building things. the first nuclear plant in the united states just opened up

last year in georgia, took about 20 plus years to build way over budget. you're a nuclear guy. you're on the board of oklo. >> you're not. >> not you resign that that seat. what is the future of nuclear in the united states? some say it's the future. others say way too doggone expensive u. front doesn't pay off. >> i think the future is very bright, very bright. it's an energy dense technology that gives reliable energy at all times, with a small amount of land and a small amount of materials. do we need innovation? do we need some government out of the way to make it work economically? absolutely. but that's what america is about. >> exclusive interview with the new secretary of energy on day three, christopher wright. thank you very much for your time here in washington, d.c. we appreciate it. carl, back to you. >> brian. great stuff. thank you. brian sullivan down in d.c. as we go to break watch bonds. as we said, the ten year trying to revisit four and a half just south of it, around 449. we got that jobs number at 143 k, a little south of estimates, but you miss and some inventories coming up in just a few minutes.

>> the bond report is brought to you by pimco, a global leader in active fixed income. i'm howie. >> mandel. >> the newest. >> ambassador of skechers. funny story how i became an ambassador. i went to the store and i lied and said. >> i was an ambassador. >> do i get a discount? the owner called me and said, would you like to be an ambassador for skechers? and i said, yes, try skechers slip ins. >> i'm tony. >> stein. >> digital strategist at americaneagle.com. after kansas city steaks experienced declining traffic and conversion rates, they came to us primed for online growth. >> we solved digital. >> challenges like this all the time by leveraging. >> an. >> omnichannel digital marketing strategy. kansas city steaks. com attracted new customers and significantly increased roi for complete website and digital marketing solutions, go to americaneagle.com. >> cell therapy is transforming

how we. treat many diseases. >> meat, fiber. biologics nasdaq. >> fb 160 patents issued and pending leveraging a diverse. library of commercial use, fibroblast cells that naturally fight disease and repair tissue fiber biologics is developing a new and innovative cell therapy platform to treat chronic diseases, addressing multi-billion dollar markets now advancing clinical trials for wound care and multiple. wound care and multiple. >> scleros new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job on indeed, it's easier for talented candidates to find it. which makes it easier for you to hire them. visit indeed.com/hire financial interests at the center of every decision. >> our business is built around being responsive to our client's. ever changing. >> needs as an advisor. >> as there are a custody services provider. >> i see my client's success.

>> as my. >> own because. when they grow, we grow with them. >> for over 25 years, we've been. >> committed to rias. >> and that's why i chose >> and that's why i chose tradepmr. when the temperature drops you've got two choices. close your eyes and think warm thoughts. or open your eyes and get out here. there's only one vehicle lineup that embraces everything the cold has to offer. the official vehicles of winte. jeep. there's only one. during the jeep presidents' day sales event, get $7,500 total bonus cash allowance on 2024 jeep grand cherokee overland and summit models. see your local jeep brand dealer today.

>> be sure to watch affirm today. it's almost a 19% gain as gmv. beats sales beats. they guide pretty much in line. we're going to talk more about it with max levchin in the 11 a.m. hour this morning. an important name to watch if you're attuned to the consumer. meantime, some modest gains at the open here in the wake of the jobs number. not not. not. >> [sfx: wind, rain and rolling thunder] with the vision to see what's possible and the grit to make it happen, morgan stanley can help create the future only you can see. [crowd cheers] [music out] only servicenow connects every corner of your business, putting ai to work for people. pfft ... every corner? every corner, nick. ow! so kate in hr ... hey kate! ... can focus on people, not process. patty in it is using ai agents to deal with the small stuff, so she can work on the big stuff. and ai helps jim solve customer problems before they're problems. oh. so we all work better, together!

my work here is done. excuse me, which way back? >> to. >> as a financial advisor. you know, building a retirement plan. practice takes work, but it doesn't have to be all on you. capital group can streamline the job with a platform that helps you guide and grow clients more efficiently. because we know you're just one person. build your retirement plan. practice with capital group earnings season on cnbc takes you inside the numbers. and when the ceos

have a big announcement, they come here first. >> a wild hour of earnings. >> earnings the way i approach work post fatherhood, has really trying to understand the generation that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families like my own. in the average household, there are dozens of connected devices. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways.

a smart. >> find an advisor at smart asset. com. >> reuters is reporting that sheehan is poised to reduce its valuation of potential initial public offering in london to around $50 billion. i can tell you that, according to a source familiar with the company, that's not true. there's been no talk of valuation cut at this point. the last valuation reported was over $60 billion. and yes, it is presumed that they are on this road to an ipo in london waiting for regulatory approval. but there has been no discussion of a valuation cut. why is this happening now? why would such a report come up now? well, because with the new tariffs on china, president trump also got rid of the de minimis rule. this is what this is, this obscure loophole in the u.s. tax code called de minimis, which allows packages that are less than $800 of merchandise to

ship to the united states duty free. who benefits the most from that? a sheehan or a temu? in these small packages that are shipped directly from the chinese factories to u.s. consumers very for very cheap merchandise. it's why they've had an edge, for instance. i mean, for many reasons, but one edge they've had over, say, an amazon or a gap, which gap merchandise comes from overseas, but it ships in bulk to u.s. warehouses. so they have to pay all the duties and the tariffs. so does that change the business model of sheehan? look, i've talked about this before with donald tang, who's the executive chairman. we just spoke a few weeks ago in davos, and they've been prepared for it. this has been a political football. and i think that the perspective of the company has been it won't hurt us. you know, we still have this edge when it comes to our algorithm and when it comes to our manufacturing and when it comes to our also compliance, which they've been very big on and trying to improve as they go public, they feel like as long

as it's applied to everyone, including competitors like a temu, for instance, that they still will have a pricing edge and an edge in their business. and so nothing that i can report in terms of valuation cut talk at this point. >> this is why we were watching pgd yesterday in the wake of these united states postal service headlines, which were halting shipments because they're not. has that been cleaned up? >> i don't know, i mean, they were halting shipments from hong kong, i know, and also there were reports that these retailers like ashiana and temu were immediately hit with an extra 30% levy on goods imported to the us from china and hong kong because of these tariff hikes. so maybe they have to just figure that out between they have these brokers when it comes to paying duties and shipping intermediaries that have to sort of smooth it out in the process, but bouncing back a little bit today. >> meantime, you mentioned this downgrade of nike that we got out of citi. going to neutral, met with elliot hill, talks a lot about inventory control. but we no longer have the patience

or conviction to wait another year. and we've talked about early chapters of the turnaround story. >> now it's all about timing. and that's why the analysts are less than enthusiastic at this point in calling an inflection, because i think, you know, elliot hill was in new york this week, the new ceo of nike, meeting with all the sell side analysts, including with the cfo. and the takeaway is, you know, he was very well liked. and a lot of the analysts talk about how he recognizes some of the problems and has to fix it. but it is a it's a heavy lift and it will take time. and so for citi, the note is about how this year is not going to be an inflection year. and potentially that's already in the stock, which has been sort of moving lower in the last few months. it's down another 2.5% today. but i think the message was they get it, they get the problem. they don't have the right merchandise and that takes time and they don't have the right inventory and that takes time. and they have to improve the culture, which has been broken at nike. and i think there's a lot of recognition of that coming from leadership right

now. the question is, is this a one year story? is it a multiyear story? and that's why some of the analysts are either on hold or a city says, yeah, well, they downgraded to hold because they're going to take some time. >> right. that's the first trip below 70 since covid. you got to go back to march of 2020. >> well, there's macro pressures too. i mean with the strong dollar with tariffs, that doesn't help right now. >> meantime though, market managing to hold its own here. you know it's doing quite well. financials david we're going to get some financials conferences next week but can't turn a blind eye to what goldman and certainly jp morgan have done the last few sessions. >> no they've had a very strong start to the year. the stocks have of course coming off what was a very strong earnings season, i will say. and you know this figures more prominently for certain firms and others. you know first month of the year m&a not what had been. at least there was so much enthusiasm for what an incoming trump administration would mean for mergers and acquisitions. we

have not yet seen it, certainly in in january, as we head into february, that enthusiasm perhaps waning a bit, but i think we'll have to wait and see what comes from drag and from obviously lesser enforcement, perhaps, of the antitrust laws. >> meantime, getting some economic data, crossing the tape. rick santelli's got it. hey, rick. >> yeah, carl. >> watch equities. we were just talking about they were making new highs. they reversed a little bit interest rates. they might move up here. some big surprises in our december final. read on inventories. but i'm sorry on our preliminary february on michigan 67.8 is the headline that way lower than the 71 almost 72. we're looking for 67.8. that will be the weakest level going all the way back to november of 23. now, if we look at current conditions, also significantly lower 68.7. this follows 74.0. and i understand it's a preliminary 68.7. that

would be the weakest going back to well november of last year. and then finally if we look at expectations what lies ahead 67.3 well below 69.3. and here's where it even gets crazier. one year inflation moved from. get this 3.3% to 4.3%. i'm staring at it and thinking maybe i picked it off wrong off the wires. but 4.3, that would be the highest surveyed inflation on the one year front in this report going back to november of 23. and if you look at the 5 to 10 year inflation, it came in roughly as expected, but one tenth hotter instead of 3.2, where we've been spending some time moved up to 3.3 to find a higher number. you're going all the way back to june of oh eight when it was 3.4. we've basically gone from 3.2 to 3.4 with regard to history. now, very quickly, these final on inventories wholesale remains down 5/10, down half 1%. and on the trade

sales this is a fresh december number 1% 1% is pretty strong. we haven't had a wholesale inventory up at that level since july of 24. but you watch interest rates here and pay particularly close attention to 4.5% on that ten year, especially on a closing yield basis. sarah, back to you. >> that's not. >> a good pairing, rick. lower confidence and significantly higher inflation expectations. >> yeah, definitely not what we were looking for. and my guess is that should put some extra steepness in the yield curve at some point here. and that's what i'd pay close attention to okay. >> thank you rick santelli watching the market here s&p dipping negative. we're about 30 minutes into the trading session. here are three big movers we're watching amazon is under pressure. the company giving a disappointing forecast expecting revenue growth between 5 and 9% in the first quarter which would be the weakest growth on record. but q4 revenue

did overtake walmart. interestingly, for the first time ever, stocks down 3.5% off the lows that we saw after hours yesterday. expedia shares soaring on strong results. the travel site also reinstating its quarterly dividend, and pinterest also rallying double digits here. the company reporting its first billion dollar quarter and says monthly active users hit a new record high. the ceo, bill reddy, joins us exclusively in just a few minutes to give us his outlook for the company and tell us about what's working right now. so those confidence numbers are kind of a damper because, you know, consumer confidence had been looking up actually since the election. we know that there's a little you know, that's always a little bit politically tinged. but i think also the inflation jump in terms of expectations is something worth watching. we know the fed watches it. you know previously in the last inflation spike fed chair powell did mention you mention inflation expectations at one point. now obviously it's the market expectations. and

overall inflation expectations have been in check. there hasn't been anything worrisome. but let's pay attention to that. it comes on the back of a jobs number where, you know, if you look at the inflationary component of the jobs number, that would be wages. and they did come in hot 0.5% increase on the month, that was more than expected. it was the most we've had in about a year. so the overall wage number goes above 4.1% on the year. look, it's good when people make more money, but it does stoke some concerns carl, about inflation. so that's something to pay attention to i think on the back of those rising inflation expectations in the confidence survey. >> yeah we sometimes at least try to compare what the michigan survey is doing versus the conference board survey where where consumer confidence is down two months in a row and is at about a four month low. but you got to imagine that there's some element of the tariff discussion that is feeding into these one year expectations. >> maybe that that definitely could be a part of it. higher oil prices. you know, we've oil

prices have come up a little bit. so that's something that consumers are sensitive to as far as jobs. you know the headline number a little bit weaker, 143,000 jobs added smallest gains since october. however strong unemployment rate it went down to 4%. that was a bit of a surprise. here's where the jobs were. health care, retail trade, government 32,000. that that could be the sort of end of the strong numbers on government adding jobs, given what's happening in washington right now, social assistance manufacturing, with a notable gain of 3000 jobs that had been a job loser in previous months. so that was a good sign. but we did have, you know, for instance, in mining was a little bit weaker. and overall we got a lot of revisions. one to mention is that it was a stronger revision for the prior few months. so makes, you know, the january give back a little more interesting. >> this is one of the arguments where you're beginning to hear more that the job market is not as strong as it seems, because government has been contributing

so much, and because a lot of the cyclical industries like manufacturing and construction are not adding jobs like they were when we were coming out of covid. >> that's that's true. so and it's hard to predict where we're going from here because we just don't know how big of an effect the, the, you know, what's happening with federal workers, what's happening with immigration. we got the population estimates, which were revised higher by two, you know, 2 million more people in the labor force. presumably that's because of all the immigration. so there are definitely some question marks over jobs and the market sensitive to it, because the federal reserve fed chair powell has said if the jobs market weakens, we can always cut rates. but i don't think that this number suggests that that's what's happening or that's what they're going to do, especially because they're going to have to be on guard for inflation. as far as the commentary from the companies, again, mixed bag of firm was pretty bullish on the consumer. we're going to talk to max levchin next hour. consumers really healthy, he says. they're shopping. they're paying their loans back. the economy is basically fully employed, which is really solid. we're not

afraid of higher for longer because we've been able to operate at these rates quite successfully. i think that's been a positive surprise, especially on buy now, pay later. skechers did have a disappointing guide. good quarter but disappointing to guide. and they did say headwinds and uncertainties like foreign currencies, which you're hearing more about and seeing the emergence of a global minimum tax regulations and the depth and length of the continuing macroeconomic weakness in china. so nothing specifically around the us. but that's what happens with with a global business there. and then how about amazon? you know, we've been talking a lot about capex and cloud. but 10% year on year revenue growth in north america, 9% in the international segment, excluding the foreign exchange rates, our continued focus on expanding selection, lowering prices and improving convenience drove strong unit growth that even outpaced our revenue growth. and david, one thing that analysts are calling out in a good way on amazon is the profitability in the north american retail business, which i think they had their highest margins ever and could be a good story on all this ai investment.

>> yeah, absolutely. despite obviously what is also significant spending there. as andy jassy said on the call, most of the increase and the capex will be going towards ai, but they still spend a lot on that retail business to it. how many times do you drive now and if you don't see an amazon truck, it's a rarity. >> it's double parked. >> yeah. or anywhere on the highway. yeah. >> meantime take a look at amazon shares if you haven't already. stock is slipping on the back of that revenue forecast. rob sanderson joins us today. loup capital management a senior internet analyst, joins us with a buy rating target of 275. rob, we always talk about their their their forecasts being often wide enough to drive a truck through. did you see last night this week. >> a little bit. >> soft on. >> the outlook? >> yeah i mean we're a. >> touch. >> surprised not. >> terribly surprised. we sort of know that the. >> spending environment. >> is just. >> sort of so-so. >> there's you know, unit. >> growth is good. there's a. >> mix down. to lower asp everyday. >> essential type products. >> you know, we. were really. >> encouraged by. >> the trends in the. >> cloud business.

>> obviously, and the retail. >> margins as mentioned, i think. >> that's a real. >> big piece. >> of you know what. >> we why. >> we're bullish on amazon for. >> the. >> next. >> few years is. there's a. >> lot of room for. >> upside. >> here as. >> they get their cost to serve. >> back to. >> historic levels. >> although they are. >> hitting all time highs in. >> retail margins. >> that business is much richer. >> from a margin perspective. >> than it was historically. >> because the. >> advertising side is so. >> much larger. >> and the margin. >> upside is. >> still pretty. >> significant as. >> they get cost. >> to serve back to historic levels. >> right. and that's a continuation of that margin story from some prior quarters. so does that allow them the wherewithal to be aggressive on things like capex overall? >> oh yeah. >> and you know, a lot of that capex. >> obviously is. >> cloud related. >> and that's. >> a different subject. >> but yes. >> they've got. >> lots of capacity. >> to spend. >> the earnings. >> power in. >> the model. >> getting back. >> to historic levels. >> they say. >> their. >> true north is 2018. >> you know, that's something like $40. >> billion higher in operating income if they. >> can get all the way. >> there on our next year's numbers. >> so that's. >> going to take a few years to get to.

>> but there's a lot. >> of upside in. >> terms. >> of earnings power in amazon. you know the advertising business i'm just curious rob, because it's becoming a more and more important component i would think of profitability. what are we talking about? $17.3 billion of revenue for the last quarter, 18% year over year growth. and to put it in perspective, they're running at what, almost $70 billion annual run rate, which is double what they had four years ago. how important is that to your overall thesis. >> very important. it's a real big piece of the margin driver. >> you know, i think the. >> larger piece is getting. >> again back to historic levels on cost to serve. but that advertising. business is a juggernaut. >> and they've been. >> really successful. >> at understanding shopper behavior, shopper data. >> surfacing that. >> for brands. >> and. >> merchants to. >> target users. >> they've been really. >> good. >> at doing that on site. but all these. >> efforts with. >> their. dsp and the connected television and the investment in sports and all of this, you. >> know. >> ad network is. >> extending that beyond the site and across the whole

internet. so there's a really powerful, you know, long term story still ahead for amazon in the advertising space. >> what about retail? >> i mean, are they are they underestimated on the retail story i just mentioned the better profitability there. or do you think the market appreciates it? >> i think the. >> market's missing how profitable the. >> retail business overall is. another way to say that is how poorly. >> the unit. >> economics on. fulfillment have fallen. it's been masked by the subsidy, call it, from advertising and commissions, which is essentially, you know, mostly margin. so i think it's what people are missing is how bad the unit economics and fulfillment had gotten, and therefore how much better it can get as it returns to normal. >> rob. important print for sure. thanks for the help with that. we'll talk soon. rob sanderson over at loop talking amazon. >> thanks. >> as we head to a break, let's give you a roadmap for the rest of the hour. softbank is close to finalizing a massive investment in openai. we'll give you the details on that coming up. >> plus shares of draftkings up

15% this year heading into the super bowl. ceo jason robins joins us to tell us what's at stake this weekend when it comes to betting. >> and pinterest chief bill ready. joining us in a cnbc exclusive. after the first billion dollar quarter and some record user numbers, stock is soaring right now as we've lost some ground on the back of umesh a big show. still ahead. stay with us. i had the worst dream last night. you were in a car crash and the kids and i were on our own. that's awful, hon. my brother was saying he got life insurance from ethos. and he got $2 million in coverage, all online. life insurance made easy. check your price today at ethos.com. options to boost their returns.

look at the return of this option trade versus a stock trade on the. >> same security. >> they can't even compare after years on tv as the go to options experts, we wrote. >> our. >> new book to. >> teach stock investors. >> how to successfully trade options. get your free copy today at. it's not an option.com that's it's not an option.com. experience the power of cnbc pro. all new investing tools securely linked to your brokerage accounts. become a smarter investor with the power of cnbc pro. go to cnbc.com slash get pro now cnbc exclusive take-two interactive ceo's first interview. post earnings. the state of gaming and growth outlook. plus, breaking earnings news from mcdonald's reaction news from mcdonald's reaction and analysis. finding the right path takes experience. as a national leader in municipal investment banking and wealth advisory services hilltopsecurities can help you find the best path to reach your financial goals.

with the backing of a diversified financial services enterprise, deep industry knowledge, and a 75-year history of innovation, we don't follow the herd. we lead it. dave's been very excited about saving big with the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. five years? -five years. and he's not alone. -high five. it's five years of reliable gig speed internet. five years of advanced securit. five years of a great rate that won't change. it's back. but only for a limited time. high five. five years? -nope. comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. powering five years of savings. powering possibilities. comcast business. patriots.com to secure your free generator and solar panels. now. >> welcome back! softbank is very close to finalizing a

massive investment in openai, some $40 billion of equity that will be going from softbank over the next 12 to 24 months. so it's not all in one check to openai pre-money valuation 260 billion for openai post taking in the money $300 billion is what this latest round of fundraising will mean for openai's valuation. of course, openai, the parent company of chatgpt, it is still in process. that could take quite some time. it's got a level of complexity to it, fairly high. one of moving from a not for profit to a for profit. and obviously it's also involved in litigation with the likes of elon musk about some of that as well. that is not deterring masterson, the man who runs softbank, from making this a very important investment for his firm, in the belief, obviously, that there was a great deal of profitability yet to come for this company and doing so at that 260 billion

valuation he's willing to come in for, i'm told the expectation is when all is said and done and when you finally get a cap table on this thing at some point down the road, they're going to own as much as 15%. that being softbank of openai, that would put them at a higher equity ownership, i believe. then microsoft, of course, which has been its partner. but as we've reported, and others have as well, that partnership while still in place, is not exclusive. certainly microsoft and openai making that clear with the latest effort called stargate in terms of building data centers all over the country and spending as much as half $1 trillion over a number of years to do so in partnership with softbank and oracle, and as well, some foreign investors, mgm being a key one there. also softbank can syndicate, i'm told as much as 10 billion of the ultimate 40 billion in commitments it has made. so could bring its overall number

down to 30 billion. it would obviously need openai to approve whoever those investors were. and we're going to go back to sort of some of the questions here is where all the money going to come from for softbank, the commitment to stargate and the commitment here. well, it adds up to a very large number. they do have 140 billion in liquid securities. obviously significant position 90% of ownership of arm. significant ownership is still of t-mobile, though not anywhere near that percentage number and a balance sheet i'm told as well that does have some leverage capacity. so we'll have to wait and see for more details on that, guys. but not deterred at all by deep seek and sort of this thesis that says, well, there's going to be more competition and many of these large language models are being commoditized. obviously masa does not see it that way. >> no. >> i mean, he's been all in from his now two appearances with president trump, first at mar-a-lago when he announced, you know, $100 billion investment. and this will be part of it, right, $40 billion.

>> you know, i think you can count that towards it. yes, i think. >> you do. around a lot of his commitments were expressed in the form of investments. >> correct. and that's what we'd expect here as well. it's not like it's just de novo here. this is new money. this is for existing commitments and things of that nature. >> and also, you know, alongside sam altman when it comes to the stargate investment. so he's bullish. and you know as we shared that letter you know that he sent you know for the vision fund like he is all in. and when he goes all in and very bullish it comes out in a big way. >> no doubt no doubt. he listen he has been bullish to be fair on the power of i far longer than many. again i reference the conversations. the last one we had on camera many years ago where carl, he was talking about the promise of ai for society. he did make an enormous investment in nvidia, but ultimately did not stay in there long enough to reap the real benefits. the stock went up, but nothing like it did once. of course, the power of the gpu for the data center and powering all

of this. >> we're going to see how resolute he is and huge implications for states like texas, and who will be watching to make sure there's not a repeat of commitments that weren't followed through on like foxconn at wisconsin. yeah. >> i think there it's more likely. again, power becomes the key issue. we've talked about it so often when it comes to data centers. you don't build one unless you know, you have the access to the power you're needing to actually be able to conduct the business of inside there, which is essentially compute power. >> yeah. the last note he sent out his investors, i just pulled up the quote. he was he was talking about the movement toward artificial superintelligence, not just artificial intelligence. in ten years, he says, we'll have that ten times that, 10,000 times more powerful than today's models. and he's been and he's more bullish than that. >> yeah. we never really mentioned google this week saying quantum is five years away, not 15 to 30. like jensen said, just one of the many things that got lost in this flurry. >> i know it is that it will be enormous. and by the way, subject for another day, perhaps. but china is very, very

advanced in quantum as well. it's not as though, again, back to deep sea. it's not as though we're alone in this race. right. >> meantime, check out shares of elf beauty. we mentioned it last hour tanking after the retailer cut guidance, citing a soft january, a 36% drop in profit shares now down 20%. after the break. we're going to head down to new orleans with the ceo of draftkings. americans are expected to bet more than $1 billion on the super bowl this weekend. over the past five years, shares of draftkings have risen an average of 6% in the week leading up to the big game back in two. >> the 2025. >> grammy awards. >> are fueling. a $106. >> billion. >> global music. >> industry by 2030. >> with double. digit growth. meet music on. >> the. >> nyse. >> a global music. >> fund and the first pure. >> play music etf. >> investing in companies behind artists. >> like taylor swift, sabrina carpenter and billie eilish.

from live. >> music to. >> streaming, led by music industry titan david schulhof, formerly with miramax, im global and bmg dance to the music on the nyse. >> crypto needs speed. >> solana executes transactions. 28 times. >> faster than. >> ethereum and at a fraction of the cost. >> whether it's fueling. >> meme coin mania or. >> building infrastructure for high frequency. >> trading networks. >> on wall street, developers are. >> choosing the. >> solana network. >> and now osprey brings. >> you a tradable ticker. >> for solana o sol. don't let solana fly by. you can start. investing in. >> it right from your brokerage. account or ira. osprey funds your trusted guide to select crypto. >> you put together like a classic. always work your magic every time you. >> make this valentine's day one to remember. don't just get flowers. give her an incredible moment. from bubbles to bills to butterflies, give her a

thoughtful, unforgettable, and truly special valentine's day gift with fast shipping. ordering is a piece of cake. send a cake.com at send a cake.com. >> i find it challenging to come up with a gift that's really impactful, but something that really makes a difference. joly has been a tremendous gift. it's something that is not only looks beautiful, but makes us feel beautiful, but makes us feel am ♪♪ you'll get better when you're not blamed for a condition you can't control. ♪♪ you'll get better when your pain isn't minimized, dismissed, forgotten. we will never stop trying to get better. because when medicine gets better,

all of us can get better. ♪♪ only 29.99. experience the joy of staying in and watch all this for less than $3 a month. don't miss your chance to lock in a whole year of peacock for only 29.99 a limited time offer. terms apply. >> big game sunday of course, sportsbooks are in fierce competition for super bowl wagers. contessa brewer joins us. she's live from new orleans ahead of course the game on sunday and has a special guest for us contessa. >> hi david. good morning to you. listen i'm already hearing a lot of trash talking around the streets of new orleans where the eagles fans and the chiefs fans are taking aim at each other. a lot of talk about the ticket prices plummeting down more than 40% on the resale

market, according to stubhub from last year. and maybe a little bit of cheese fatigue like we've seen them here before. with me now is ceo jason robins of draftkings, one of the big giants of legal sportsbook wagering in the united states. are you seeing in terms of the wagers coming in, chiefs fatigue? actually. >> the money is pretty even right now. so the spreads only one and a half. so people are typically not taking the spread if they're betting on the favorite side. so you're seeing a little bit of moneyline shift there. and then you're seeing you know, the spread going the other way. so it's pretty even right now if you look at the overall money. >> chad beynon, who's the gaming analyst at macquarie, said his estimates are $1.7 billion legally wagered in the united states with the sportsbooks, and that the ideal outcome here would be, he says, kc win and under total, because everybody wants to have a high scoring game and that would translate to about a $365 million gross gaming revenue for the market,

he says. in the most extreme scenario, draftkings could see plus or -3.5% for the first quarter. revenue is one game. even the super bowl that important? >> it can be, i think in this case, because the money is, you know, pretty evenly distributed. if it stays that way, it won't be. right now, the biggest thing is going to be the touchdown scores. so does saquon i mean i think we're all kind of assuming saquon barkley is going to score. so everyone our head of sportsbook said look i'm just penciling in a saquon score. so i'm hoping jalen hurts and kelce stay out of the end zone. and that actually at this point will make a bigger difference in our numbers than the overall game. but there's a lot of time between now and kickoff. >> so that. >> could certainly. >> change when you look at the way that the wagering jumps for the super bowl. i mean, you're talking like i think optimove said something like 765% more wagers than even the finals for these games coming in. when you're thinking about that and putting that in perspective of what we already saw with fan

favorites winning during the football season, we know that that had an impact. how do you factor that in when you're trying to tell investors and analysts what to expect for the coming year? >> well, i think everyone understands that there's some. volatility based on sport outcomes, and investors have become accustomed to that. so that's something i think the market understands. and over time it evens out really as the numbers get bigger and you know, the types of bets become more diverse. it's going to continue to be more normalized, less volatile. you know, for example i mentioned the touchdown scores. we have a lot more money on player props now than we did a few years ago. and so now game outcomes aren't nearly as impactful to us as they once were. they still are obviously very impactful, but it's been muted a little bit. so i think that also will help kind of, you know, make things less volatile as time goes on. but that's just part of the nature of the business. and most events aren't like this. the nfl is sort of unique in the amount of volume, and the super bowl is obviously the biggest one of all. >> bank of america's analyst john kelly says 1.15 billion in total volume on kelce and polly

markets. those are the predictions markets. you're competing with these new entrants at a time when ohio and maryland are proposing doubling your tax rate, there's a lot of competition and a lot of money. outgoing. talk to me about balancing that. >> i mean, i think those numbers show you how big this is in states that don't. have legal state authorized betting. if you take the illegal market and add that into the numbers you just said, you're talking orders of magnitude larger than it's going to be wagered in the legal market this year. so that's still very much a big, big part of what's out there. even in states that have legal betting, especially ones that have high tax rates, where it's been harder for us to market and promote as much, those big legal sites are still out there, and i don't think people realize the size of those. >> jason, thank you so much for joining us. i know you got a busy weekend ahead of you. appreciate you spending a few minutes with us. thanks, sarah. okay, contessa. >> having fun out there in new orleans ahead of the big game.

still to come, pinterest ceo bill ready here to break down the latest quarter with that stock surging in early trading off earnings after the break, goldman sachs chief economist jan hatzius joins us at post nine on today's jobs report. and this consumer confidence number we just got as well. we're back in a minute. >> it's not if the markets will turn. it's when. >> at howard. >> capital management our. >> proprietary family. >> of funds actively. >> navigates complex. >> market landscapes while seeking to safeguard your tomorrow. we aim to empower investors, delivering opportunities with a tactical mathematical approach. >> start investing. >> with confidence today. contact your financial advisor and see how howard capital management can redefine your fund experience. >> thank you for calling. >> please hold. >> when you talk. >> to. >> your custodian. >> does it feel like. >> you're not. >> being heard? >> thank you for calling. >> please hold.

>> now that's better. >> trey palmer. >> doesn't have a massive. >> call center. instead, your calls are answered by real people who know you by name and are empowered to help. >> like me. hey, chuck. >> how are you? what can. >> how are you? what can. >> i do for you? it's a smart move to get a second opinion. you do it when you're looking for a contractor. you definitely do it with medical advice. so why not with your stock market investments? we can help you see opportunities you may be missing. at hennion & walsh it only takes a second to schedule your free second opinion. so what's there to lose? speak to hennion & walsh. the second opinion people. (wind, rain and rolling thunder) (♪♪) nobody's born with grit. british anncr: rose is really struggling. it's something you build over time. american anncr: that's twenty-one missed cuts in a row. (car trunk slammed shut) for eighty-nine years,

morgan stanley has offered clients determination and forward thinking to create the future... crowd: stop it! ...only you can see. american anncr: rose, back in the winner's circle. (crowd cheers) (♪♪) gina costa... looking simply stunning... what's this? she's opening her fidelity app.... to buy that stock... with no fees or commissions... because what does gina got? gina's got the look. that never gets old.

talk about easier investing. gina costa... looking simply stunning... what's this? she's opening her fidelity app.... to buy that stock... with no fees or commissions... because what does gina got? gina's got the look. that never gets old. talk about easier investing. >> generics now. only $1 per tablet. >> at wrexham.com. >> slash 30. >> welcome back to squawk on the street. >> i'm bertha coombs. with your cnbc news update. >> japan's prime minister has arrived at the white house. trump administration officials say the president plans to discuss a number of topics today, ranging from defense cooperation to artificial intelligence, to hold meetings this morning and then give a joint press conference later this afternoon. the uk announced

today that it will dismantle the remains of london's grenfell tower. it comes almost eight years after the deadliest fire in britain since world war two, killed 72 people in the high rise apartment building. some of the victims families have fought for the building to remain in place. >> as a monument. >> to those killed, and two people died when a small plane crashed hitting a bus on a busy sao paulo street this morning. both of the victims were on board the aircraft. six others were hurt, including a. motorcyclist and a bus. passenger who were hit by debris from. >> the crash. >> back over to you, carl. >> bertha. thanks. meantime, elon musk continues to shake up washington. doge is quickly working to cut the size and the scope of the federal government, leading to some concerns about what sensitive information staffers are able to access. energy secretary chris wright telling us last hour such concerns are not warranted. the

government is old and maybe a little bit stodgy. and we've got some young kids think think young gun management consultants coming in to take a critical look at how things are run. can we do things a little bit more efficiently? are our systems as efficient as they should be? i've heard these rumors. they're like seeing our nuclear secrets or all that. none of that is true at all. they don't have security clearance. >> they don't. >> have anybody's proprietary information. but i know exactly who they are. we have three people in our building run through, checked by our security, and they have access to look around, talk to people and give us some good feedback on how things are going. i think nothing to be worried about here. we showed you that cover of time magazine this morning with elon musk in the oval. when you make yourself one of the centers of this new push for efficiency, you're goingnd up with some coverage like this. >> but this is notable. i mean, the comments are notable from the energy secretary, as they were from the treasury secretary

yesterday, also saying like, there's nothing shady going on here. it's kind of like read only give us feedback. how can we do better? and the treasury secretary himself saying that there were treasury employees inside of that payment data, trying to sort of calm the democrats and their outrage a little bit. we'll see where that goes. us economy big story of the day adding 143,000 jobs lower than expected in january. however, the unemployment rate did fall to 4%. jan hatzius, goldman sachs chief economist and head of global investment research, joins us here at post nine on a jobs day. welcome. >> it's good to. >> be here. first, can we just start with the consumer confidence numbers. because that came at the top of the hour. it was a dip in confidence and a big jump in short term inflation expectations. and i was just looking at when this survey was done. it does it spread out over a long period of time but does kind of encompass some of the time around the tariff drama. so i wonder how much of it is about that. >> it does seem partly. >> about. >> that because there's also

some more. granular information in the report that shows an ongoing rise kind of more recently. so i do. >> think. >> that there's. >> there's some impact. you know, obviously. inflation expectations. are still well below where they were in 20 2122. but they have risen pretty significantly. and these are very noisy numbers. it's a small survey. so you really do need to see more information. >> you probably want to take. >> a very close look at the new york fed survey that has a much bigger sample. >> that won't come. out for. >> for a few more weeks. but it is something that deserves attention as a potential indicator of second round effects. >> it's also very politicized in terms, and they do break it down by democrats and republicans. and democrats are much more worried about the inflation situation right now. but if you take this with the wage number that we got in today's jobs report, how concerned should you or the fed or investors be about a resurgence of inflation?

>> i think i'm not i'm not overly worried. i mean, the wage number, i would actually. say i don't put that much weight on. there was a decline in the workweek. a lot of people are paid on a monthly basis. and then when the workweek falls, you get a mechanical increase in average hourly earnings. there's some evidence for this because financial services and information technologies technology showed the biggest increases in average hourly earnings and a sizable drop in the workweek. also, if you look at other indicators of wage growth, the employment cost index that came out last week, there is really no evidence that we're getting a rebound in wage growth. but, you know, again, there are a bunch of different indicators. you want to put some weight on all of them. and the inflation expectations number caught my attention. >> meantime, there's been, i would argue, a broader mix of discussion about whether rates are restrictive or neutral or close to neutral. do you or do

you dismiss outright the notion that the fed could could hike this year? >> i think it's pretty unlikely. i think it's very unlikely, in fact, that the fed is going to hike. i think at the moment they're quite comfortably on hold. they think rates are restrictive. >> that was. >> very clear in the press conference. other fed officials have said it, but the debate is about how long to stay at this restrictive level. and i think it's going to be, you know, quite a while there. we're still expecting a couple of cuts in 2025, but i think the risk is that it takes longer. and, you know, they they don't need to really do very much. the economy is still growing at a good pace. we saw it in the employment numbers. certainly if you take an average of the last several payroll numbers, we're still actually in the two hundreds for non-farm payrolls. unemployment rates have been drifting down. so for now i think there's not very much to do. with that said, if you look at the inflation,

you know, the wage numbers are encouraging. i think labor market adjustment in the jolts survey, for example, which came out earlier this week, still ongoing. so hikes to me still seem unlikely. >> do you think we mentioned the big government push and the prospect of some government either retirements or early buyouts or even layoffs? would that move the needle, do you think nationwide? >> i think from a macro perspective, these numbers are still very small. of course, there is an enormous amount of focus on it, i understand that, but when we're we're looking at overall government employment outside uniformed military, it's quite a small share of overall employment. so i don't think it's really going to show up in a major way in these in these numbers. >> what about immigration, something that you've been talking about for a while. we did get some population estimates in this new number today. what what can you tell about how much that's been adding to the labor market and what might happen now that we're

seeing this crackdown? >> well, it's been adding a lot because you go back a year and the break even rate of payroll growth, the rate that's necessary to keep the unemployment rate stable, was probably well above 200,000. now, that is coming down clearly, and it will come down very significantly. prior to the pandemic, that break even rate was generally estimated to be 50 to 100,000. and, you know, as immigration normalizes, maybe false net immigration falls below the long term trend because we're getting deportations, then, you know, we're going to go back to a much lower break, even unemployment rate, break even payroll rate. yeah. one thing that's really important here is for people not to put too much weight on the payroll, month to month payroll numbers. they're not as useful as they were when we could be sure about the break even rate, because the because immigration

has been such a big swing factor, we need to really put more weight on the household survey and other measures of labor market utilization than payrolls. >> one more final quickie for me on tariffs. and i know we don't know where it's going and whether the delay amounts to anything. we know that china has increased tariffs now on tariffs. as far as the spillover effect on the us economy. do you worry more about the inflationary pressure or the economic hit, the demand destruction. >> that's a really hard one to answer. i think markets have taken a pretty strong view that you should put a lot more weight on, on inflation. i'm not so sure about that, because if i go back and look at past episodes, including 2018, 2019, you know, it could go the other way. now that was a very different situation. inflation was below the target. interest rates were also much lower. but i'm i'm very unsure. i think big tariffs of course there's a mechanical

impact on the price level. and there's also some some hit to growth. and i think you need to look very closely before making that judgment john. >> thank you. good to have you here. a lot to talk about. jan hatzius from goldman sachs. >> after the break, we're going to have an exclusive with the ceo of pinterest. that stock is up strongly on what were better than expected fourth quarter revenues and also posted strong user growth. and as we head to break, check out the biggest gainers on the s&p for the week. yeah look at palantir. we're talking $262 billion. that's not even on the fully diluted share number and followed by expedia. of course we talked about as well. and tapestry still strong after yesterday's earnings. we'll be right back. >> bitcoin is the best performing asset. but its volatility has kept many on the sidelines. >> until now. introducing the world's first suite of downside.

protected bitcoin etfs capture. >> bitcoin's upside potential with downside protection. >> with 190 or. >> 80% protection levels. >> over the one year outcome period. asset management in a time of disruptive change. calamos i had the worst dream last night. you were in a car crash and the kids and i were on our own. that's awful, hon. my brother was saying he got life insurance from ethos. and he got $2 million in coverage, all online. life insurance made easy. check your price today at ethos.com. >> in breaking news. tiziana life sciences announced a significant milestone in its clinical development program for alzheimer's disease. tiziana life sciences stock symbol tlsa

on the nasdaq has successfully dosed their first patient with moderate. alzheimer's disease with a. >> new therapy that reduces. >> neuroinflammation in glial brain cells. this mechanism of action could. revolutionize the treatment. >> of alzheimer's. >> disease, pioneering a new approach to treating approach to treating alzheimer's. tiziana what if you could invest in a future where skin cancer treatment is noninvasive and relatively painless? medicus pharma's groundbreaking solution delivers chemotherapy directly to the tumor site, offering a mostly painless alternative to invasive surgeries. with the skin cancer treatment market expected to exceed $20 billion by 2030. medicus is poised to meet the demand for cost effective non-surgical options. now advancing phase two studies. medicus pharma, leading the charge in skin cancer innovation. ruri: ichi, ni, san, shi... (1,2,3,4 . . ) hina: ichi, ni, san, shi... (1,2,3,4 . . ) akari: ichi, ni, san, shi... (1,2,3,4 . . ) others: ichi, ni, san, shi... (1,2,3,4 . . ) others: ichi, ni, san, shi... (1,2,3,4 . . )

(♪♪) (♪♪) you were made to chase your passions. we were made to put them in a package. talking to sources, and doing my. >> own reporting. >> to share. >> insights. >> information, and all. >> of the. >> details that you need to. >> be able to. >> make money. >> take the bull by the horns every morning with jim's top ten. the biggest headlines, earnings reports and jim's hot stocks right to your inbox. sign up now for free at cnbc.com. slash top ten. >> pinterest continues its hot start to the year. strong q4 results sending the stock surging this morning. you can see up better than 18%. let's get to julia boorstin along with

bill ready. hey julia. >> hey carl. >> thanks so much. i'm joined now by pinterest. ceo bill ready. >> thanks for. >> taking the time. >> on the heels of this better than expected report. and what's so striking to me. >> is it wasn't just that the q4 results were better. >> than expected. >> you guided. >> to much. >> stronger than. expected results in the first quarter and indicated you expect these trends to continue. what are the factors that you see driving your growth this year? >> well, you know, 2024 was a really transformative year for our business, really along two dimensions, you know. the first was leveraging ai to make really great recommendations to our users and driving engagement with our users and shop ability for our users, but then also the advancement of our ad platform as a performance ads platform that's delivering great return for advertisers. and so both those things are working really well. you saw us in q4, hit all time highs on users. our engagement is at an all time. >> high in terms of weekly. >> active to monthly active, as well as our largest ever revenue quarter. we had our biggest ever cyber five shopping, and so those things are really gaining momentum. but that's really been the business transformation

we've been driving for the last two and a half years. and you're just seeing the momentum of that continue to build. >> so you're talking a lot about revenue. >> but also. >> 2024 was your first full year of profitability since 2021. >> my question. >> is. >> how will you be able to sustain that return to. >> profitability going forward? >> yeah. so for the last two and a half years, we have talked about our focus on profitable growth. and i think one of the things you've seen from us is that while ai has become a core competency for us, we have been really focused on leveraging ai for high return use cases and delivering that profitable growth. so we've been delivering consistent margin expansion. and i think this is one of the things that may not be, you know, fully appreciated is that not only have we driven consistent margin expansion, you know, we deliver over $1 billion of adjusted ebitda. we also had 90, 90% plus free cash flow conversion on that. so we were really generating a lot of cash and really proving a highly efficient business. >> yeah, it seems like. >> analysts are focused on that cash flow now. now. >> over the years, i've reported on how you've been making more. >> and more of these. >> partnerships, notably with amazon. how important have. >> partnerships like.

>> the amazon. >> one been. >> to driving all of that growth? >> and do. >> you think. >> you're going to. >> be making more partnerships? >> what role. >> will they. >> play going forward? >> well, you know, when you when you look at what we've done around shop ability, you know, we've had broad based partnerships with amazon on multiple fronts. first party, third party. and we've started to work with many more retailers. and what you're really seeing, and we've called this out consistently that our lower our our direct response business, which is, you know, us sending traffic directly to retailers, you know, that has been our our fastest growing part of the business at our investor day, more than two thirds of our business, it's been our fastest growing since then. so it's gotten larger. and so if you're a user on the platform, one of the things you're seeing is that, you know, a few years ago, pinterest was a place that you could do a lot of window shopping, but all the stores were closed as we've opened the stores and made it so you can easily connect to those retailers. that's driving great engagement for users, but great monetization with advertisers. and you know, if you're a user of the platform, you certainly would have found a lot of things for the holiday season on the

platform. a lot of those you might have got fulfilled through amazon, but you're seeing a broad swath of retailers engaged with us, which is really fantastic for our business. >> i mean. >> you're. >> talking about monetization. one thing. >> that was so striking is there is. >> a huge. >> gap between the way you're monetizing your users. >> in the us and canada. >> and those. >> that are overseas. and right now, 20% of your users are in the us and canada, but 80% of your revenue comes. >> from those users. >> as you look to monetize the 80% of your users. >> that are outside. >> north america, what is your strategy. >> and will. >> those users ever be as profitable as the ones. >> here in the us? >> yeah, this is one of the things, you know, as i came into the business two and a half years ago, i felt that the platform was quite under-monetized relative to the commercial intent that users had on the platform. and as you rightly called out, we have more than 80% of our users outside of our uk region, but approximately 20% of our monetization. so we've been focused first on solving monetization in our home market, and we still have a lot more of that to do. but that's a big opportunity for us in international is that many of those markets were completely unmonetized for us. we're making zero from those users. and so, yes, there are some of those

markets that may not become as as valuable per user as the us, but they can be much more valuable for us than what they are today. so we are executing well on multiple dimensions and shop ability. you know, the user experience, the performance ad platform, you know, are core to that. but international is still very much in front of us in terms of opportunity. there's a lot of it there. >> but that also. >> means. >> growing exposure to foreign exchange headwinds. you said you expect two percentage points of. >> impact. >> but how much uncertainty is there around fx? >> well, you know, for us, we guided a 15 to 17% for q1 on an fx neutral basis. and we said, you know, that includes about two percentage points of fx headwind if you look at it on a spot basis. so, you know, it's something that we're paying attention to, but we have much more revenue in our home market. but those international markets, while there may be some fx headwind, those are fast growing markets for us. >> i just have to ask you a quick question about tariffs. do you expect tariffs to impact some of your advertisers? will we see companies like shein and temu.

>> pull back. >> from advertising in your platform. and what overall impact do you think these tariffs and the threat of. >> tariffs could have. >> well, you know i can't predict you know what happens with those any better than anybody else can. but what i can say is that, you know, we've really made pinterest a fantastic shopping destination. i think one of the things that, you know, the pandemic taught us was that even if there are major disruptions in supply chains and things like that, people are still going to shop. they'll find substitute products, they'll find other places. and pinterest is exactly the kind of place you go to do that. so i can't predict what will happen with, you know, tariffs in one place or another. but what i can say is that pinterest is going to be a fantastic shopping destination, and users will find their way to go get products from, you know, whatever makes sense for them. and we're going to be a great place for them to do that. >> well, certainly a. >> lot of people watching. >> to see what the tariff impact will be if there is one. >> bill ready, ceo of pinterest. >> thanks so much for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> sara, back over to you. okay. thank you julia. julia. boorstin. another big interview coming your way on earnings next hour. money movers affirm ceo max levchin will join us. with that stock surging 21%. that's

in the next hour on money movers. we're going to be right back here on squawk on the street. dow is down 108 s&p 500 turned negative as well. >> we empower those who act. >> those who see the correlation between. predictability and probability. those who manage risk by. anticipating each movement. >> flawless execution. >> timing and. >> accuracy. >> identify the goal. match power with precision. reach new heights. >> cme group. >> where risk meets opportunity. >> the fbi calls it house stealing. the latest scam where a cyber thief transfers the title of your home out of your name and steals your hard earned equity. >> it's roughly. >> 60 to 90 days for that person. even figure out that they're the victim of this crime. you start getting

foreclosure notices and you realize you've got four mortgages on your house that you didn't even know existed. >> unfortunately, it's on you to protect yourself. you might already be a victim. check your title status now at home. title lock.com. >> skating for over 45 years has taken a toll on my body. i take tylenol turmeric because it helps with healthy joints and inflammation support. why qunol? it has superior absorption it has superior absorption compared to regular that moment you walk in the office and people are wearing the same gear, you feel a sense of connectedness and belonging right away. and our shirts from custom ink help bring us together. we make it easy to wow all your groups with high quality custom apparel and promo products, all backed by our guarantee at customink.com. disrupting the status quo? scan this code or go to cnbc.com this code or go to cnbc.com slash disruptors to apply

(♪♪) now for something you can both agree on a sleep number® smart bed is perfect for couples the climate360® smart bed is the only bed that cools and warms on each side and all our smart beds adjust the firmness for each of you let's agree to agree on better sleep. save 50% on the new sleep number® limited edition smart bed plus free home delivery when you add a base. plus 0% interest for 48 months. sale and make your dream office a reality.

>> president trump, once again taking aim at private equity's favorite tax perk, carried interest in a white house meeting yesterday. the president said he wants to end a loophole. if you want to call it that, that allows the likes of private equity managers, people, certain real estate as well, even hedge funds, although the hold periods there are usually too short to come into play. but what we're talking about is essentially they treat their carried interest as a capital gain rather than income, and obviously get the far lower rate you just saw on your screen as a result of that. this battle, of course, we all know at this desk, has been going on for years. it's always won by private equity interests. i like to think of steve schwarzman, of course, the ceo and founder of blackstone, as literally being able to just nope, stop. >> how many times have they had to fight? this comes up in every time. >> you know, as a revenue raiser, not that significant, but as a fairness point, it is

certainly comes up an awful lot. why should the senior person at a private equity firm be paying less, perhaps, than the assistant who works for them? >> why should they? >> i can't argue that they should, and i don't know why, given it is the key part of their income, why it is not treated as income as opposed to capital gain. >> yeah. we'll see whether or not this round. certainly the push on government efficiency and costs is any different than it has been in the past. we're trying to extend or the administration is trying to extend the 2017 tax cuts. b of a has got a great chart on defense spending $900 billion, which they call a tempting space to look for savings. but so far that's not been part of the discussion. >> but what was also new was this what he said is going to get rid of the sport team owners. yes. loophole, which i actually didn't know that much about. >> but yeah, you can you can take the losses from your team and deduct it against your income. so if you are running a large hedge fund generating a lot of income, for example, own a sports team, it can be very

favorable. not to mention i think there's also ability to actually even amortize some of the price you pay for it as well. so there's some favorable treatments there. >> i think the big headline, though, of the hour is that he's going to sign an executive order against paper straws. >> straws. >> you're very. >> happy about that. >> aren't you? i hate paper straws. who likes paper straws? >> well, people who like the ocean. >> i know, but they can't be that big of a deal. >> having done a documentary about about garbage, you'd be surprised how many straws are floating in the pacific ocean. >> deal with other forms of plastic. leave me the straws. >> not where i thought we'd end today's show, but perfectly good place to do so. we got a lot more live market coverage for you. straight ahead. (vo) weight loss is changing. for so long, i felt stuck on repeat. i tried, and tried again. lost weight, gained it back. but zepbound means change.

zepbound is for adults with obesity, to help lose weight and keep it off. activating 2 naturally occurring hormone receptors in my body, zepbound works differently. it's changing what i believe is possible when it comes to weight loss. it's changing how much weight i lose. up to 48 pounds. and it's changing what happens. don't take if allergic to it, or if you or someone in your family had medullary thyroid cancer or multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2. tell your doctor if you get a lump or swelling in your neck. stop zepbound and call your doctor if you have severe stomach pain or a serious allergic reaction. severe side effects may include inflamed pancreas or gallbladder problems. tell your doctor if you are experiencing vision changes, taking a sulfonylurea or insulin, having suicidal thoughts, if you're nursing, pregnant, plan to be, or taking birth control pills. side effects include nausea, diarrhea, and vomiting, which can cause dehydration and worsen kidney problems.

zepbound means change. and when it comes to weight loss... change is good. discover the weight loss you could be bound for. talk to your doctor about zepbound. pending. leveraging a diverse library of commercial use, fibroblast cells that naturally fight disease and repair tissue fiber biologics is developing a new and innovative cell therapy platform to treat chronic diseases, addressing multibillion dollar markets, now advancing clinical trials for wound care and multiple sclerosis. fibro biologics symbol fb, lg. >> sometimes investing can feel so all over. >> the place. >> that's why public.com. >> created one place for it all. one place where you can invest. >> in almost. >> everything like stocks. >> options, bonds. >> and crypto. you can even lock

in a 6% or higher yield because it's the one place where you can build your portfolio the way you want. all your investing in one place. get up to $10,000 when you transfer an account to public.com. earning season on cnbc takes you inside the numbers. and when the ceos have a big announcement, they come here first. >> a wild hour of earnings. >> earnings, season, special coverage all this month on cnbc. >> good friday morning welcome to money movers i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen at the new york stock exchange this morning. today lower consumer confidence and some higher inflation expectations have investors on edge a bit. as yields move higher, stocks lose some gains. we're now down two. 60 on the dow as the jobs number showed that wages rose more than expected. what does it mean for the fed. we'll discuss. >> plus aff