i think the first thing you're going to see is creatives harnessing the power of ai. but when is the tipping point? and i think within the next decade we'll see real transformation. and companies like myself are looking at that. and so it's a big deal. >> gary vaynerchuk, great to have you on ahead of super bowl weekend. thank you. that does it for us here at overtime. fast money begins right now. >> live from the. >> nasdaq market site in. >> the heart of new york city's times square. >> this is fast money. >> here is what is. >> on tap tonight. >> a trio of troubles, from looming tariffs to disappointing data and a big tech tumble. some big clouds sending stocks. >> lower today. >> so how should. >> you play? >> the pullback. >> will debate. >> and all eyes. >> on china. what a drop. >> in one of tesla's key. >> markets means. >> for the. >> auto. >> stock and. >> the state of trade between the. >> us and beijing. and uber revs up. >> on a big. >> activist stake. nike shares hit nearly a five year low. >> and the countdown. >> to kickoff. >> is on. a new survey shows just how big the. >> appetite for sports betting could get. i'm courtney reagan.

>> in. >> this evening for melissa lee. coming to you live from studio. >> b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight. >> we have tim seymour, courtney garcia, steve grasso. and mike co. so let's start off with the threat of new tariffs sending stocks sharply lower to end the week. >> the s&p dropping. almost a percent closing near its lows of the day as. >> president trump. said he'd announce reciprocal tariffs early. >> next week. those comments further rattling investors already on edge after a disappointing. jobs report in the morning. the us economy adding 143,000 jobs in january, versus estimates for 169,000. the unemployment rate also edged. >> lower, while. wages rose. >> more than expected. the nasdaq was the. >> biggest loser on the day. >> led down by amazon, which dropped 4% after its earnings. report coming out after the bell on thursday, combined. the mag seven. >> lost over $300 billion. >> in market. cap today. >> so what do all these moves. >> say about the direction for the market? >> tim, start us off. we sort of ending the week. >> with tariff worries. >> we started the week with

some. >> tariff rattling, worried first. >> then relief. >> what in the. >> heck should we be. >> watching here? >> first of all, welcome. always good to have you. >> and. >> we're also ending the. week with some, you know, some disappointing earnings out of the mag seven where we kind of feel like we started the week and certainly where we had some of the week. so although the headlines. at the end of the week about tariffs. >> and reciprocal. >> and a lot of the unknown in terms of the economic impact and truly what's going to happen on policy, i feel like the close of this week is as much about what really happened. >> this week. >> in terms of market leadership. semis closed really at the 200 have been fighting to kind of break back over that they didn't fall apart. but lack of leadership from mag seven for sure. outside of facebook i guess we call it meta these days and a little bit else. it's really been a story of that. the fact that this morning's payroll number was a number that didn't tell you that the labor market is bombastic. it didn't tell you that we have runaway inflation, but it definitely brought the unemployment rate down with the participation rate up, meaning this was a real number. this was really to the extent that you could see some tightening from labor forces.

>> just. >> because there's more people looking for jobs and overall that the unemployment rate has come down a bit. wages were stronger. there are some elements of this that say the fed is absolutely on hold. you've got cpi next week humphrey-hawkins. so i think as much as there's unknown around tariffs, you could make an argument that this week was relatively positive on tariffs. i'd say the trump administration is showing that they're kind of being very tactical and using certainly using tariffs as a stick from which to see what kind of follow through they can get. i think. there's concern about market leadership. i think there's concern about the fed. and that's what it felt like today. >> yeah, there's. >> so many different things going on. but i love a lot of the points that you make. obviously with the tariffs potentially. >> as a negotiating. >> tool, i think retailers. were really happy that it wasn't more than 10% on china, at least as of right now. maybe some relief there. courtney. but tim didn't mention the mention. the university of michigan. i hate to even say that because. >> you hate michigan. >> that's not nice. >> consumer sentiment survey. i mean, my. >> gosh, that was really. >> disappointing this morning. much lower than expected. i mean, consumers are the backbone of the economy. starting to. see

some worry there. >> yeah. and i think. >> that is. >> something you have to watch. >> right? i mean, because we. >> are. very much a consumer driven economy. so if the consumer continues to hold in there, that. >> is a good thing. and you've seen these surveys come up and. >> down. >> i. >> think the bigger thing is what is happening with wages, what is happening with the. >> labor market. >> and what you saw with. the data that came. >> out today. >> wages have. >> actually been. >> rising faster. than inflation. and you also have. >> this. >> wealth effect where people have actually been. spending even higher than their wages, mainly to reflect the fact that assets have been growing. >> so that's really what's. been keeping the consumer strong. the question is. >> is that going to crack at some point? and that's what people are worried about and they're waiting. >> for, and. >> that's where they're looking at data. like you point out, like consumer. >> sentiment, you're. >> seeing some of that. >> go down. >> i don't think i've seen. >> it enough in the data of the. >> actual aggregate of. >> the consumer and. >> the economy yet to justify that, but it's something to watch out for. >> absolutely. i think. >> the inflation number in there, their expectations that inflation was going to rise to something like 4.3%, which is about a percent higher than previous that. that sort of rattled me a little bit to see

that. i mean, steve, tim. make some points about the magnificent seven, kind of the magnificent. >> one, maybe over. >> the last two. >> weeks or so. >> with meta being the one outperformer nasdaq down more than one and a third percent. do you. >> think. >> that weakness continues as we move into next week? >> yeah, i do, and i wouldn't be buying. >> i said this last. >> time, i wouldn't be buying max seven right now. and i think you're going to have this range. >> on the pullback. not an opportunity. >> you know you're always. >> going. >> to get. >> sort of that. deep seek bounce back in a lot of those names. but if you think about it deep seek is probably more than a one day event in the thought process in the psyche of the investor. if you think if you think about that, they can do it for 6 million or thereabouts when meta is costing them 65 billion, microsoft 85 billion, amazon 104 billion, it becomes a are they throwing the money away or is all. >> of. >> this amazon. they were trying so much to reassure. >> it's going to be. >> worth it. it's the. >> biggest opportunity. >> i think. >> that feels like last year. right. so i was we're all on board last year where who was going to be the first to monetize? nvidia was going to be the first to monetize. >> nvidia was 85%. >> market share. but when you

look at consumer. >> sentiment that. >> you brought up seven month low inflation spiking to a spike the most, as far as expectations for a 14 year high. >> right. >> so those things but but i'm on the i'm on the other camp where i think tariffs we're talking about this as inflationary. i think they could be deflationary. it also it increases the dollar's value which makes imports cheaper. it could slow down the economy a little bit so that. that's deflationary. and also you get the substitution effect that where okay i bought this basket of goods. so i'll buy this basket of goods. so i don't want to say that i'm too rose colored glasses on on this. but but i'm looking at it from a different angle. >> tim i want to go back. >> one. >> because we. >> started talking about the jobs report. obviously backward looking most data is in this case. >> we've got a. >> lot of stuff going on in the government and with government jobs, what's going to happen going forward? how does that impact the labor force and what

we're going to hear from the numbers and how we should. >> parse. >> that all out government spending? >> well, yeah, i mean. it is. >> typically people. >> call it. >> it's. >> a. >> payroll number, but it's usually nonfarm. payrolls that people. >> think about. >> and but then there's so there's a public and there's a private component to this. and i think it is material. i do think though what's going on within the government, what's going on in terms of cost efficiency or really just rooting out of agencies that maybe needed to be rooted, you know, who knows? i'll just say that i'm i think the labor market from where we were back in september and august and september. >> which was. >> coincident with when the fed had kind of pretty much told you they were going to go. they're going to go no matter what. now it really looks like 50 bips was too much. and it doesn't. i guess on some level it doesn't even matter. it's what they did. but there's no question that 100 basis points that was rushed towards the end of the year, i think right now, tells you why the fed is on hold and why the markets are actually a little bit upset about that. i think it's not as if the fed is going to quickly go about face, but the expectation that you could see rates come back in dramatically and give a boom to

the stock market. that's why you're starting to see the broader part of the market actually really work. and back to allocation. there's no question equal weighted his outperform. there's no question that parts of the industrial space has looked really quite good, even though there are still a lot of uncertainties about these companies that are importing many components of the core part of their jobs, their production scheme from china, japan, really, mexico, canada, china are the places we're focused on. so i'm less worried about payrolls here than i'm worried about market leadership. and when it comes down to it, what we heard out of the most important companies in the world over the last ten days hasn't been emphatic. >> yeah, that is true. i mean, mike, do you see any buying opportunities here? maybe in some of these most important companies, the mag seven or otherwise? or do you feel like you still want to be in a holding pattern? because there's still a lot of uncertainty? >> well. >> i think. >> tim just sort of hit it right on the head there. you know, equal weight is outperforming. if you take a look at last year. >> the you. >> know. consumer discretionary. >> sector was. >> one of the best performing sectors for the whole year. and

of. >> course if. consumer confidence is. >> you know, on the. >> wane. >> a little. >> bit, then that's going to hit. >> that sector. and it was the worst performing. if you take a look. >> at. >> it today, you know, with respect. >> to all of the big capex numbers. and i think that's what. >> weighed on some of those companies that, you know, other than. >> meta, of course, that were just reporting. >> in amazon's case. >> almost eye watering numbers. >> at 100 billion. but the fact is. >> that indicates. >> that there is. >> some support still on the hardware side for the ai trade. i don't buy. >> the deep sea $6 million. >> thing at all, to tell you. >> the truth. >> i mean, first of all, i. >> think there's. ample evidence. >> that they probably had. >> access to more chips than they suggest. >> and of course, i don't. >> think they're really counting. >> everything either. >> besides which, if you can do. >> more with. >> less, you can do much. >> more with more. and that. >> seems to be. >> amongst those companies that have the financial wherewithal. >> to make the. >> investment the direction that they're going to take. >> and you don't get. >> something for nothing. so, i mean, deep tech was a it was quite an operation. if you wanted to get. >> access to folks in. >> america because there was record number of downloads, i don't recommend it because if.

>> you don't know what's being. >> sold, you're the product. >> yeah, maybe. maybe in this case, it was a good thing that i was a late adopter because i was too late to the game. and then i heard maybe i shouldn't do it, so maybe it actually worked out in my favor this time. for more on today's market action, let's bring in nbc contributor cnbc contributor peter boockvar. he is the bleakley financial group chief investment officer. peter, thanks for joining us. i mean, what do. >> you make. >> of today's action here? what was really the market's biggest worry in your opinion? and why did we see that ten year yield go above four and a half? >> well, it. >> was interesting. >> because. >> there were a lot. >> of different factors. the payroll number of course, as you. guys have talked about, and the dip in the unemployment rate, even though. >> it wasn't the. >> cleanest number, because we saw that the workweek fall to the lowest level since 2010, not. including covid. then, of course, the michigan confidence number, with the sharp rise in the inflation expectations because of worries about tariffs and the. impact that's going to have on the prices that people pay. and then, of course, you throw in the threat of reciprocal tariffs, all

combining for that lift back to about 4.5% in the ten year yield. >> and the ten year. >> yield has been falling, interestingly enough. over the past couple. >> of weeks. >> at the same time, inflation. expectations in the tips market has. actually been rising. if you look at. >> the two year, the. >> five. >> year and. >> the ten year inflation break evens, we're. >> at two year. >> highs even as. >> long rates. >> have fallen. so i think that's an interesting thing. i think that's a tariff trade in the sense that it could be stagflationary in terms of its impact. >> that's interesting. so i was going to ask you what you think your overall impact is of us tariffs. steve says that he thinks it actually could be deflationary. >> well the initial reaction could be stagflationary then a follow through where prices could fall. you know the one. experience we had. >> which is helpful. 2018 well, many. >> us manufacturing went into recession in response to. >> those tariffs. >> that led to the fed cutting interest rates in 2019. >> i think the only reason. >> why we didn't see. inflation then is because these

manufacturers. >> did not. >> have the pricing. power to pass it on. i think now we're sort of in this post. >> inflationary world. >> where manufacturers. >> may have. >> more leeway. and opportunities to pass it on, not just in a one time fashion. which is. the argument against it being. >> inflationary, but something more persistent in the years to come. >> obviously, depending on the complexion of these tariffs. >> peter, it's tim, great to have you. has the dollar peaked. and in the context of that also what do you think about international here which is really outperformed the us? germany is going gangbusters. and yet everything we hear about what's going on with their economy not so good. >> well on the dollar. >> we certainly have. >> had a big adjustment higher. >> in pricing in the tariffs. so if we do get the tariffs that certainly helps to mitigate it. the question though is can the dollar stay strong. and if the dollar happens to weaken and we get still get tariffs then we lose that dollar mitigation with. >> those tariffs. >> so i. >> do think there's a possibility because other central banks that have been cutting interest.

>> rates. >> they seem to be coming to the end of their rate cuts as well. and the one currency to me that's most important is the yen here, because jgb yields continue to rise. so i think that that's potentially a major factor now in terms of international stocks. and courtney said earlier maybe we're down to the mag one. and i do think that investors or all of a sudden realizing that there are a lot of other stocks other than the seven. there's 493in the s&p, there's 2000in the russell. and you have a whole rest of the world that also trades stocks as well, where valuations have become extremely. >> attractive. >> peter thank you so much. really appreciate you joining us. we're going to have to leave it there for the time being peter boockvar. we actually do have a bit of a news alert here. if we can move over to megan cassella. i think she's got something for us. >> hey. >> courtney. that's right. >> on us steel. >> we are learning a lot today, a lot of moving headlines. from president trump. but the latest on this first, trump said earlier today that he continues to oppose a nippon steel takeover of us steel. later, he

said, though, that the company is now considering an investment. >> in us steel rather. >> than a purchase. >> and. >> that that's. >> an arrangement. >> that he would support. >> take a listen. >> we didn't want to see that leave and it wouldn't actually leave. but the concept psychologically not good. >> so they've. >> agreed to invest heavily in us steel as opposed to own it. >> and that sounds very exciting. >> and we're going to meet with nissan next week. >> the head of nissan very. >> great company and they'll work out the details. >> note that he did say nissan there, but. >> a source familiar. >> clarified to me that he meant. >> to. >> say nippon. now still. >> a. >> lot of outstanding. >> questions on how. >> exactly this would be. structured and how significant. of an investment this. >> would be. >> trump did say that he would. >> also be a part of those meetings. >> between company. >> executives next. >> week. >> that he'll be there. >> to. >> help mediate. >> but even while trump says his

concerns. are addressed here, not. >> everyone is on board. the united steelworkers union say their stance is still unchanged. >> they continue to believe nippon is a serial. >> trade cheater that has dumped its. products in u.s. markets. so much more. courtney to watch next week on whether this arrangement might pass muster and. >> make it through. courtney. >> i'd like to be there when he mediates that. i can only imagine that that would be a spicy boardroom. thank you very much, megan. steve, i know that you have a play here in the space. >> i'm long steel from $30. i think it. >> goes much higher. you're going to have. >> a lot of. volatility in that process and the sausage making of it. but i think he's he. >> donald trump. >> president trump is hard pressed to let steal the stock. and the company fail. so he's either going to do it through tax incentives and perceptions of reality. you're not going to. let them. >> buy. >> it, but you could let them invest in it. >> i think. >> there's room for there to be multiple winners, and i'm concerned with one winner and

that's letter x, and i think it goes higher. and we're talking about in the 50s with the nippon deal. so we're trading at around 3637. i think it has the chance to get back up there. >> interesting stuff tim. >> well. >> i think. i think u.s. steel, even without the dynamic. here around nippon or, you know, cliffs or anybody else, was that this company was cheap, companies cheap. but there was obviously some cyclicality to steel prices, things we were worried about. there's clearly a need for reinvestment in a couple of the core smelters. and that's the story. we just got numbers out of u.s. steel. the margins were better. the dynamic is interesting. you know what is what is the outlook for steel? that's a big part of this. but i think you can stay long in the stock either way. i agree with steve that, you know, really what the headlines are all about are things that seems like everybody kind of wants to make sure that u.s. steel wins. meanwhile, u.s. steel on its own, i think was undervalued going into this. >> so maybe it doesn't matter how it gets there if you think that it's going to win in the long run. mike, what do you think?

>> well. >> i mean. if you. >> take. >> a look at. >> what the options. >> were doing. >> today. >> it seems. >> like there's a lot of longer sort of mid-term. >> trading going on. >> and it. >> traded 180,000 contracts, usually trades about 30,000, which is actually a pretty good number when you consider that every contract represents 100 shares you're dealing with, you know, about. >> 18 million. >> shares worth of calls trading on that thing. >> just today. >> so, you know, i think some people are, you know, cautiously optimistic, but. >> it looks like. >> they're playing it with the options to make their. >> bullish bets here. >> all right. well stick with us. coming up. citi is benching nike. why one analyst says they're losing hope in the slumping sportswear stock. that's up next. but first one bill more than $2 billion in uber. pershing square's bill ackman unveiling a massive stake in the ride hailing stock. why he thinks this name is trading at a big discount. that's right after this. >> you're watching fast money here on cnbc. we'll be right

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billionaire investor saying in a post on x that uber is, quote, one of the best managed and highest quality businesses in the world and that it can. >> be. >> purchased at, quote, a massive discount to its intrinsic value. tim, what do you make of this? >> i believe it, i agree with it. i was really surprised to see. >> how the stock. >> traded down on those numbers they announced. i realize that there's there was a little bit of disappoint in terms of the lower unit economics of what's just happening in kind of the core business, and there's some concern around the build out of the autonomous, but it does seem as if they are in a pole position in terms of autonomous, if, in fact, that is not the death of these companies. in other words, there's been this this question about our uber and lyft dead because of autonomous, or are they really going to truly benefit? i think it's the latter. but i look at the company and i do think it's cheap. and i think also the pullback has been on a combination of factors that i think have largely worked through. i think the business has been normalized. they're giving credit as as bill ackman is pointing out in terms of having a well-run company across multiple verticals within essentially the super app of which is delivery. and i just

think that the pullback is an opportunity. stock's done nothing for two years. it's had a great couple of days. but i think you can still buy it. >> mike what do you see here in shares of uber. >> well i see a 5% free. >> cash flow. >> yield based. on full year. >> numbers, which is obviously very cheap. i think compared to a lot. >> of businesses. >> options traders love this one. >> it traded a. >> million contracts today. that's a huge uptick in the volume. and that's probably not that surprising. you hear that there's. >> a huge stake being. >> taken by a famous investor. and you often will see a lot of retail pile into it thereafter. but i mean, i'm with tim here. i mean, the growth is outpacing the market considerably. and yet you're buying it at a similar multiple. >> so yeah, i think. >> you can stay long. this one. >> what's driving the stock here kourtney, do you think what part of the business is most important? >> i think the autonomous. >> vehicles that's clearly. >> going to be its longest growth driver. >> i mean, i think the question is. >> what that's going to be in the short term, but if that is something they can. >> monetize and they can. >> be at. >> the forefront of, i think. >> you're going to see. >> that optimism here. >> in the stock. >> and i think what you're. >> seeing is.

>> we. >> saw that from. >> bill ackman. >> he was. >> very positive on the stock and the purchases. >> that they're doing. >> but also the day that. >> we had the sell off. >> with uber. >> they came out themselves. and said we're in an accelerated repurchase. i think there. >> were repurchased. about $1.5. >> billion. >> worth of. >> shares over the next year. >> and i. >> think you're seeing that. >> optimism that everybody. >> said, this is a great buying opportunity. >> i think. >> you want to listen to some of those. >> big. >> names when you're hearing that. >> is that a good two year run, steve? >> yeah, i mean, this. >> was the diversified play. they had a lot. >> of buckets. >> of. revenue where. >> lyft basically. >> had one and they. >> were eats. >> exactly. and they. >> can always partner up with another autonomous partner. or they can have bolt on acquisitions, tuck. >> in acquisitions. >> where they can get the most bang for their buck and be in the be in a better. >> position than. >> developing it on their own. they could. >> probably be the deep sea. >> of autonomous driving, right? they take everyone. >> else's technology. >> and then they wind up just putting it all together. and i think the management. team is, is bar none the best in the space. and when you look at the stock every. >> time it pulls back. >> it's always a buying

opportunity. >> good stuff. but there's a lot more fast to come. in fact, here's what's coming up next. >> citi losing its faith in the nike turnaround story. inside a key meeting with ceo elliott hill that has one analyst benching this name and whether or not you should just sell it next. plus, tesla's china problem, the ev maker seeing sales. >> plunge in the. >> region as competition heats up with a. >> looming trade war, just. >> worsen the issue. and what's in store for the us auto trade? you're watching fast money live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

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i can get used to this. order official state lottery tickets and scratchers from anywhere with jackpocket. this code or go to cnbc.com slash disruptors to apply now. entries closing soon. >> welcome back to fast money. let's get to our call of the day. shares of nike dropping almost 4% after a downgrade from citigroup analysts also cutting their price target to $72, down from 102. the note, citing sales pressure and competitive threats and nike's running shoe business. analysts saying they are, quote, no longer they no longer have the patience to wait another year for the company to make a comeback. now, shares closed the day at their lowest level since the depths of the pandemic. that was nearly five years ago. courtney, i'm not entirely surprised that this is going to take a while for a turnaround. maybe i'm surprised that citi thought that it would take a year. are you surprised

about this? >> no, and. >> i think this has been the. >> case for a while, right? >> i mean. >> their biggest issue. >> is competition. like, are people still buying as much footwear. >> or activewear? >> and then if. >> they are, are. >> they going to hoka. are they going to have some real competitors there? and nike is. >> just. >> not giving us like. >> a. >> light at the end of the tunnel there, which is really the problem. and, you know, citi is. >> not the first one. >> i think there's. >> a minority. >> of analysts. >> who are bullish. >> on the stock. i mean. most people don't expect this to go anywhere in the near term. so i. >> think that should be that big of a surprise. >> like maybe. >> this goes. >> somewhere, but i can. >> see it on the street. just watch people walk around. there's many. >> more of their competitors. >> and. >> you'll see it day to day. it's fascinating. >> yeah, absolutely. i mean, i think it takes a while. and the ceo was talking about how he's got to sort of flush out the apparel that they don't think went well, and then they've got to reorder and restart and get all of those distributed. they're reworking on their vendor relationships. and that takes a while. right. >> so i just think it's fascinating how the street interpreted a sell side meeting that was held by ceo elliott hill and air at the new york stock exchange. all the analysts went to it. they all came away

with different views. a lot of them came away with this view that it's going to take longer. so citi is not alone on this. there's 3 or 4 sell side analysts that just said, we actually think that the turnaround now bleeds well into 2026 and that we're concerned about margins. i'm also looking at a report from piper who said, we're actually really excited at the sense of urgency out of elliott hill and that we actually think so. you know, to me, there's nothing new we learned this week. there's nothing new about nike's business. i'm actually as an investor and i have a small position in nike. i just mean more broadly, as an investor, you should be pretty happy that he's resetting expectations. he didn't run in here and tell you he was going to do a lot. and in fact, i think this is really a reiteration of that. so most of the people came away saying, all right, no change anytime soon. i think the things that we, we all recognize are things nike needs to worry about is the competitive landscape has gotten much more aggressive. it's not just a duopoly with adidas. it is a case where people are worried about margins. and then there's some cyclicality. i think people bought more sneakers in the last three years than they know what to do with. i think there's really a dynamic here where part of this is just

resetting the story. owning nike here at $68, i think you're going to be very happy over the next couple of years, and you don't need to trade it. you do want to invest in this company. >> didn't you? >> didn't you want a turnaround specialist, someone to give a little bit of a fresh mind. >> a fresh look? >> now. >> nothing against the new ceo, but he has. >> been there since 1988. >> as an intern. he's had. >> 19 different roles. >> not that that makes it bad. >> he knows the company better than anyone. sure, the. problem with. >> nike is that you wanted a fresh look. >> you wanted. >> a new approach. >> you're not. >> going to get it with that ceo. he could. >> be the greatest ceo in the world. he's not. >> going to give. >> you a fresh perspective. >> and you have. >> on competition. you have hoka competition. city, by the way, loves deckers. so as much as they don't. like nike, they're constructive on deckers. >> and. >> you saw deckers. >> you saw that stock. >> tough week really really come. >> in dramatically. >> and that's probably. >> a. buying opportunity versus.

>> waiting for the turnaround in nike with the same ceo that's been there. >> all right. so you're not interested in nike. but tim says buy it. hold on. all right. well coming up inside china's trade war game plan and what tesla's global sales problems could mean for automakers, the latest on the tariff. tit for tat right after this. missed a moment of fast. catch us anytime on the go. follow the fast money podcast. we're back right after this. did you. >> know. >> taking xyzal. >> at night relieves allergies while you sleep. >> so you wake. refreshed for. >> a more productive day. get 24 hour continuous relief that does hour continuous relief that does not before the spotlight— we struggled to keep the lights on. i saw more for myself. and sofi gives members the financial tools to see more for themselves. join the official bank of the nba. sofi. get your money right. is a bitcoin etf the same as owning bitcoin directly? while bitcoin etfs might offer

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to buy that stock... with no fees or commissions... because what does gina got? gina's got the look. that never gets old. talk about easier investing. threats of more tariffs. the dow and the s&p 500 both falling about 1% and the nasdaq dropping nearly 270 points on follow through from amazon's disappointing results and more. post-earnings moves from pinterest, affirm and expedia. all three names have double digits after posting their results on thursday. and finally, meta locking in a 15 day win streak. the tech titan, up nearly 17% since the run began back on january 17th. meanwhile, tesla falling more than 3% after reporting that its ev sales in china fell sharply in january. this amid reports that the eu is set to lower tariffs on u.s. autos in a bid to avoid a trade war with president trump. phil lebeau

joins us with all the details. hi, phil. >> hi, courtney. >> let's start. >> first off with the. >> sales in china, which were not good in the. >> month of. >> january for. tesla in. comparison to their competitors, they. >> were really not good. tesla down 11.5%. byd up 47.5. keep in mind. >> byd sells. >> not only electric vehicles. but a larger percentage of their sales are hybrid vehicles. nonetheless, they were up. >> 47.5% in. >> terms of the global ev sales race. yes, tesla. was number one. last year. not by a lot, but. >> still number one over byd. >> number three, way back at 880,000 is general motors. tesla also got some bad news yesterday. in terms of auto sales coming out of europe, in. particular germany. they were down 59%. >> in january. >> and as i said yesterday. >> courtney. >> one month does not. >> make a trend. >> but take all these numbers together. and it clearly shows that there may be a number of factors at play here, including the fact that some buyers might be waiting for the refreshed

model y, which is just coming out. in china. so we could see these numbers. reverse in the months to come. >> but and as. >> you take a look at the eu auto imports, and you mentioned in the beginning that president trump may want to have. reciprocal tariffs. >> put in. >> place, which is why the eu. is saying, hey, maybe we'll lower down the 10% tariff on vehicles coming from the u.s. here's how. many were sent over. >> to. >> europe, to the eu, 789,000 through the month of november last year. that's four point or. >> this year. >> i'm sorry. these are eu auto imports into the us 789,000, 4.9% of our us sales, largest amount coming from germany, 436,000 imports exports. >> courtney i'm. >> getting all of them mixed up. >> by the way, in. >> terms of auto exports. it's about 800,000 that we sent all around the world last year from. >> here in the us. >> it's very interesting, of course, too, that tesla is the name in the middle of all of this with elon musk's involvement in washington these days? phil, thank you so much

for being here with us for that one. mike, i want to give you a quick comment first on what phil had to say there. >> yeah, i mean, the first thing i would. >> say is that tesla doesn't really. >> trade off of their. >> sales so. >> much as other automakers do. >> if they did. >> the stock would be a whole lot cheaper. >> than it is. >> it obviously has a lot to do with their technology and the model y, as he referenced, a lot of people would wait for that because that's their best selling model by. >> a long shot. >> what do you make of shares of tesla here courtney. >> yeah. so tesla has not been something i'm chasing and i think i do. you know. >> our argument. >> has been i think it is. >> expensive for what it is. but when. >> you're looking. >> at this as an investor. >> they have competition in china. i don't think that's anything that's necessarily new. i think we knew that was coming. >> but if you. >> are looking at this. >> on the long. >> side. >> i think people. >> are optimistic about what their full. self-driving and autonomous driving means in the future. right? we were talking about how that's going to benefit uber. >> earlier, and that's. >> something that if that. >> does come to fruition, could. be a benefit. the question is, does that justify the price that. >> you're paying for tesla? >> so no, i'm not. >> jumping into it. but i think that's the. >> narrative that investors are

going to be looking to over the longer term. well, china's counterterror countermeasures against the us tariffs are set to take effect on monday. beijing imposing levies on all us energy, as well as agricultural and auto equipment, also announcing export controls on rare minerals and reviving antitrust probes into us tech companies. for more on the impact, let's bring in longview global managing director roderick mcneil. he's a cnbc contributor, also served in the department of defense during the obama administration. derrick, thank you so much for being here with us. i mean, putting it all together. what do you think this means for us going forward next week? >> well. >> thanks for. >> having me, courtney. >> great to see you. listen, i think. >> we are just. >> at the beginning. >> of what i think. >> will be an extended. >> process of the. >> tariff wars, the trade wars. >> a repeat in some ways. >> of 2018. and for china. >> i. >> think this was a measured response to what i thought was a very small. >> 10% from trump. >> but what we're likely going to see, courtney, is. everyone

is holding fire. >> until after. >> april 1st, when the america. >> first trade. >> policy executive. >> order request. reports back. >> on how. >> trump then may be able. >> to do a broader tariff approach. >> to china. so i think. >> measure it. >> now. >> but there's a lot of runway ahead of us with respect to tariffs. >> how much of this do you think will stay in place, and how much of it is being used as a negotiating tool? those early the initial headline about china and mexico then very quickly got walked back at least a delay in the timing for some discussion. could that happen at all? here is this negotiation more than a tariff that stays in place, like the ones that we've seen, that have been in place now since 2018. >> so this is a very. >> good. >> question. >> and it's. >> a question. >> we've all been asking ourselves. >> i think not. >> before monday. i don't see. >> a deal taking place before monday. >> but to your point. >> here, courtney, both. >> sides. >> xi jinping. >> and china loves transactional

leaders. >> and trump. >> loves a deal. but the real. >> question here that many. >> of us. >> are asking ourselves is. deal for what? like what is the ask? and i. >> think china has a. >> pretty long list of asks. >> i'm unsure. >> what our. >> ask are. >> and whether or not what. we're asking for is negotiable. >> there are certain things. >> that, as you well know, they're just. not negotiable with. >> respect to china, you know, not funding state owned enterprises, for example. that's not going to happen. so the question i have is what is the ask? i agree that. both sides are willing to. >> negotiate. >> but we need to know what that negotiation entails. >> dordrecht two. to courtney's. >> point. >> do you think a lot of this stuff is sort of getting. numb to the people that invest around it, because it's going on. >> for so long? we've already. >> argued what. >> the tariff reaction would. >> be be way. >> before we. >> even saw what the real. tariff news was. >> going to be. but when you talk about china. >> specifically, because. >> that's the one that's most important. >> their economy is.

>> a. >> lot weaker than i think we know it to be. a and. >> b. we seem to have the leverage over china. >> so ultimately. >> do you think this. >> is more stick. >> than carrot. and we. >> should prevail. >> since their economy is a lot weaker than ours. >> yeah a. >> very good way to. >> think about this. look i. think the difference here from 2018. >> which you point out. >> is china. >> is still dealing. with all of. >> the domestic economic. >> challenges that we've spent the last two. >> years talking. >> about, that this. >> economy is not. >> the economy that china went to the trade war. >> with in 2018. now they have. >> developed an. >> additional set of tools. >> that they did not have. >> to respond. >> because they can't match. >> us tariff or tariff. >> but you're right. >> i think ultimately at. >> the moment. >> the us. >> believes it. >> has the upper hand. >> because china's economy. >> is still struggling. >> and so we will see the chinese. >> are not going to fold. >> they have agency. it may not be as much, but. >> they are. prepared to match

us. >> perhaps not tariff for tariff, but they'll develop some of these other tools. >> and find a way to hit back, and they will dial. >> them in. >> in a. >> very. >> very specific way. >> thank you for joining us and the thoughtful conversation. appreciate it very much. tim. what do you do around this? >> i think you invest around it and i think you invest in china. i mean, you know, my ask as an investor in china is that the chinese government leaves their companies alone. you know, i look at alibaba, tencent, they're two of the bigger positions in idaho, which is the international etf. i manage. and i just think the valuations for some of these chinese tech companies are so attractive. and they're not really macro stories. in other words, i don't need major stimulus out of china to see alibaba or tencent. i need them to if anything, just, you know, some of the parts people be able to realize that there's maybe spinoffs, that there's dynamics in those core businesses that are extremely undervalued. a lot of this has been governance risk. so i just you know, i look at the i think steve's right. you know, the numb factor of china, china tariffs is certainly something that's been hanging over the market and investing in china

for a long time. i will say i think the chinese government also has been waiting to save some stimulus for really needing to see what the trump administration was going to throw at them. i think you're getting more stimulus out of china. i think this this entire kweb sector is going higher. >> interesting stuff. well, coming up, sports betting on robinhood. the concept hit a snag this week, but could the possibility be revived inside an investor survey that could revolutionize the trading platform? that's up next. plus, a monster week of earnings from mcdonald's to reddit, coinbase and beyond how the options market is gearing up next. >> it's not if the markets will turn. it's when. >> at howard capital management. >> our proprietary. family of funds actively navigates complex market landscapes while. seeking to. safeguard your tomorrow. we aim to empower investors, delivering opportunities with a tactical mathematical approach. >> start investing with. >> confidence today. contact your financial advisor and see

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raitt, brandi carlile, chris martin, dave grohl, david. >> byrne. >> devo, eddie vedder, jack white, jelly roll. lady gaga, miley cyrus, mumford and sons, post malone, the roots. only on peacock. >> welcome back to fast money, another busy week of earnings kicking off monday. mcdonald's, marriott, coca-cola, robinhood and reddit, just to name a few. mike, what are you seeing in all the names ahead? >> well, we have. >> a few names that are going to have some very big moves. i mean. one of the big. >> moving stocks is applovin, and that one right now is implying a move of more. than 18% after they report lyft. we were just talking about uber. >> lyft is. >> going to be reporting and they have a more than 16% implied move. moderna coming up. that one's got a big move along with coinbase. and mcdonald's is only going to move about 3%. >> but humana was actually the name that i. >> was. >> looking at. and it's move.

>> isn't quite as large as some of those other names. it's a little over 7%. >> but, you know, this is. >> actually one of the largest. >> implied moves we've seen for. >> this stock in a while. now, i understand the managed care space has been pretty hard hit, but i think one way that traders could potentially take advantage of this, if you're. >> optimistic, is doing. >> something called a diagonal call spread risk reversal. so i was. >> actually looking. >> at buying a. >> longer dated at the money 280 strike call and then selling a near. >> dated 245. >> put, which looks like a level of support to me to the downside that. >> expires in march. and then an upside call around 320. >> and this. >> this would probably. >> make some money if you get a. >> little bit of a. standstill and if the stock. >> rises and. >> you really don't have a whole lot of. risk unless you get put the stock. >> down below. >> 245 but like i said, i think that's probably a level of. >> support here. >> interesting on humana. thank you very much. mike. courtney, do you have any any plays there either with humana or any of these other names next week? i mean, we've got a lot of things to play around. >> yeah, i. >> would actually be really interested. >> to see kind of what the

guidance. >> is on a lot. >> of these companies. >> so like take for example, we. >> just saw expedia today. >> they actually came out and really. >> beat expectations. >> people are really optimistic. >> about. >> that space in the. >> next week actually airbnb who's coming out. >> so i think some. >> of these you want to see is. >> this a one time story. >> or are. >> you going to see this across. >> the industry? and i. >> think as we see a lot. >> of these companies start to reporting, you're really going to start to see that trend. >> and i think that's really what we want to keep our eye on. >> what should we listen for next week, steve. >> well, when i look at moderna's chart, have you seen this chart in the last five years it has disintegrated. so good. not not not not so good. you know, i was with joe davis, who's the chief economist at. vanguard on earlier on this week, and he had. >> mentioned that. >> the biggest. >> impact you're going to. >> see with ai are health care. >> names. >> and specifically. >> hospital names. >> because it's going. >> to make the doctors and the nurses. >> more efficient. >> with their time. so people are not even factoring. >> that in. so i'm looking at like an hca and. >> they put out longer. >> term guidance. so i agree.

>> with courtney. shorter term for the for. >> the purposes of this. >> show. >> we're looking for guidance in how ai. >> is being used. >> and you're going to start. >> to see every company. >> whether it's like the mood ring, right. >> every company, whether they. >> use it or not, is going to. >> have ai in their. >> earnings report. i'd love to see health care use more air. figure out those like data trends. oh, i love the mood ring, but it was always the same color for me. i think i just run cold. well, are you surprised. >> you do not run cold? >> where do you go. >> with this one? i mean, i'll i'll push back. that's what we're here to do. i'm going to fight that. thank you. i don't feel it at all. >> thank you. well, coming up, sports betting. coming to a trading platform near you. well, robinhood users say about their appetite to make wagers on the app and what it could mean for the company's business. that's up next. more fast money into. >> options. action is sponsored >> options. action is sponsored by robinhood (auctioneer) let's start the bidding at 5 million dollars. thank you, sir. (man) these people of privilege... hoarding the financial advantages for far too long. (auctioneer) 7.5 at the back. (man) look at them — unaware that robinhood gold members

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on us. >> smart mom by morning. >> got it. >> got it. >> boss otter, you got this. >> welcome back to fast money. we're about 48 hours away from kickoff for the super bowl, super bowl 59, and football fans could be placing a certain amount of bets on the game. a new survey of robinhood users finds almost 80% want to be able to use the app to make those kinds of bets. the trading platform had offered contracts for sunday's game earlier in the week, but were forced to cancel those bets. dandolo, of mizuho,

was behind the study. he's here to break it down. dan, why did you do this study and what does it tell you? >> well. >> last november. >> they did. >> an analyst day, and vlad mentioned that they. >> were thinking. >> about it. >> and it just. >> you know, rocked the whole, you know, sports betting market. >> and so we were. >> like, was he serious? was he. >> not serious? >> and i'm. >> a big fan of vlad. but it turns. >> out they were. >> serious and they did. >> it and. >> they rolled it back. and we. >> wanted to see the appetite. >> and so what did the survey show? it showed that a lot of people were interested in that. did that surprise you? almost 80%. >> so two. >> thirds. >> of the surprise. there was. >> that. >> two thirds of the. >> the overlap is massive. two thirds of the people that trade on robinhood, it turns out, are. >> using, you know, anywhere from draftkings, fanduel, etc. all these. >> sports betting things. so there's an enormous. >> amount of. >> you know, like potential for overlap in. >> terms of like. >> the people that are trading on robinhood, do they want to trade other apps like i view robinhood. >> as like. a global. >> one stop. >> shop, you know, massive. >> you. >> know, trading. >> app for everything. >> so whether it's sports or. >> politics, anything goes.

>> so what do you think the opportunity then could be for robinhood if they can figure out a way to do this. >> i mean they this is a. >> great question. >> they aimed it. >> at the analyst day. >> they talked. >> about. >> a $600 billion tam. right. it's kind of we're going back to like. >> 2021 numbers. but if. >> they just get 10% of that tam. >> that's like a $60. >> billion revenue company. this is incremental. >> this number wasn't in. >> the tam. so i'm hearing anywhere from like 20. >> $30 billion. >> tam to 100. >> to $150 billion. >> i'm not an expert in sports betting, but that's. >> what i'm hearing. >> in terms of the market. >> it's not what we heard. >> yeah, well, so try to separate. so the correlation for hood and what's been going on with bitcoin prices. there's no question that there's been this huge renaissance in the whole group. and certainly that that group of traders help us understand really where you separate the price of bitcoin. but truly the strength of the business, how it's grown, either the, the, the wealth and the amount of money that's on the site now versus where it was, help us really understand, because this has been quietly one of the best plays in the last two years. >> so the beauty. >> of robinhood. >> and this is. >> sort of.

>> that super app. >> for trading, right? >> it's not just. >> crypto, right. we upgraded coinbase. i'm you. >> know i. feel a little bit better. >> about coinbase now. but we have neutral on coinbase. >> robinhood is just so much more. it's got equities. >> it's got options. >> it's got crypto. >> it's got interest. you know deposits. people are bringing in. their money. they're putting in their deposits. now. they're actually letting. >> people bring in their iras. they're doing. >> the 3% match. >> so the way i think. >> about this is if. >> one. >> thing goes wrong, let's say crypto starts coming down. >> which we've seen in the last few days. there's other revenue. >> streams that hedge it. and you don't see that with a lot of other, you know, apps which are very monolithic. >> yeah. >> what's your outlook for crypto? >> so i was a little you know. >> i'd say a little. >> bit better. >> now i think, than in the past. the work that we've done actually shows you that wallet. >> adoption is. >> coming up. and that's highly correlated with, you know, with bitcoin. so we're actually modeling like 30% growth in bitcoin this year. and so that's you know 2,530% growth. and that's kind.

>> of where. >> we are in crypto. so i would say still no intrinsic value in bitcoin i stand. >> with that. >> but people like it. adoption is coming up i can't fight it. and i think it's going. >> to go up. >> who do you want to win the big game this weekend? final question. >> can i you. >> know, i don't even know who's playing. >> that's all right. >> all right. >> say the chiefs. >> that's impressive. >> wearing red. >> that's good i. >> actually want to read his reports. he's focused. >> yeah right i like it. >> but i am going. >> to a party. but i am going to a party. but i don't know. >> who's playing. >> okay. you might want to study up before you get there. thank you dan. appreciate you being here. coming up next, final trades. >> at interactive brokers. independent rias work with the best research and trading. >> tools designed to help them outperform. >> the markets. >> meet them at interactive. >> brokers investors marketplace for advisors advisors at interactive brokers. >> keep all they earn on. >> our. >> low cost platform. >> with no ticket fees. >> or custody. >> charges. >> low margin rates and high interest earned on idle cash.

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cardio powered ingredients support so much more than heart support so much more than heart health and for a limited [ car engine revving ] >> next. >> so his. >> deep secret an alternate universe that bodes terribly for nvidia's pricing down the road. if you had to design the most punitive way to bring down the price of this great stock, you'd invent something like deep sea. >> mad money next cnbc. >> it's time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. mike. you first. >> yep. >> you're concerned about

consumer confidence. >> causing rotation. >> then moved to. >> equal weight rsp. >> tim thank you courtney lyft. >> and courtney. >> i would look at baba here. >> i wouldn't discount. >> china even with. >> the tariffs. >> steve bring us home. >> deckers i like this sell off i think it's a buying opportunity. >> thanks for watching fast money. mad money with jim cramer starts right now. >> my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here. >> to level the playing. >> field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to cramerica. other people make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to. >> entertain, but. >> to. >> educate and. >> to teach. you to be a better investor. so call me at one 800 743 cnbc or tweet me jimcramer. >> tonight i want. >> to share. >> some of. >> my accumulated wisdom. and there's a lot to accumulate in this