dow. over 200 on the nasdaq. look at treasuries here that we're in a 4 to 5% range for 48. we are right in the middle. if i get a haircut, if i let it go at you, i'm. telling the audience i'm going right now because. >> i would go for one. >> they got to cut off. it gets very frizzy on the sun. will this prove it's not a wig? if i come in and it looks totally different? can we put that to bed? >> i don't know about the velcro, but sure. >> make sure you join us tomorrow. squawk on the street is next. >> good monday morning. welcome to squawk on the street. i'm carl. >> quintanilla with scott wapner. >> leslie picker here at post nine of the new york stock exchange. cramer and faber. >> have the morning off. >> and speaking. >> of cramer congratulations to him and his philadelphia eagles on. >> last night's super bowl victory over the kansas. >> city chiefs. >> we also wish jim a happy birthday today. >> man what. >> a birthday present. >> a lot more.

>> on the. >> super bowl coming up. futures are green coming off friday's sell off. and looking past these headlines about new tariffs and retaliation. we're going to get to all of it. a roadmap this morning goes like this. trump's tariff threats. the president teasing some new levies on all steel and aluminum imports. even as china's retaliatory tariffs. kick in. >> plus new. warning signs about. >> the strength of the us consumer. mcdonald's, posting its biggest domestic sales decline in nearly five years. >> and shares of meta platforms up again in premarket. the mag seven stock, aiming for its 16th straight day of gains. sweet 16. >> let's begin with this new week for the markets and the president's promise to impose these 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. this is what he told reporters yesterday on air force one. >> we'll also be. >> announcing steel. >> tariffs. >> on monday. >> tomorrow. monday. >> yeah. >> tomorrow. >> what happens. >> with those. go on everybody.

>> steel. >> if you have. >> any steel coming. >> into the. >> united states. >> is going to. >> have a. 25% tariff. >> what about. >> aluminum to. >> meantime over the weekend a lot of coverage of various trade playbooks that other countries and continents are starting to assemble the eu. we've heard from china, obviously, brazil is a story on the wire about come at us and we'll have some retaliation in some cases, not with direct tariffs, but targeted measures against, for example, us tech. >> yeah. >> that was a story. >> i believe it was in the wall street journal about china targeting potentially on the antitrust side of things with us tech. what i find so interesting about this weekend's developments is the fact that china is no longer even close to being the top exporter of aluminum or steel to the us, that goes to canada. canada is the top exporter to the us of aluminum and steel, and the reason for that is because there have already been such high tariffs in place on china for these metals, and therefore

china has been exporting elsewhere, including to canada, which takes that metal and then exports the more expensive version to the united states to be the top exporter of aluminum and steel to the us. so the whole thing is so fascinating. and to your point, carl, as everyone kind of draws the, you know, global world order and tries to figure out how this is all going to play out, it's so, so complicated. >> we've seen this movie a little bit before. obviously the stocks that we just showed you on the screen are all higher. this morning i thought we were going to cue up the wilbur ross campbell's can. yes. as we talked, you know, back then about steel and aluminum tariffs, i think that probably lives on somewhere in the archives. >> what was the line? >> who's who's going to be bothered? >> right. >> because of the penny or so additional cost to a can of campbell's soup. >> well. >> i mean, it. >> kind. >> of. goes to. >> the point that i'm. >> making about the market reaction this morning. i mean, you would obviously expect steel stocks to be up, but the market itself, the. futures are up.

>> right. >> why? because well. >> we're going to. >> probably we figured out we've, you know, wised up to maybe how to deal with all this. and the market has sort of learned its lesson about overreacting to noise and headlines. and then it's going to really figure out exactly what it all means before it reacts in, in some way. we learned that a week ago. right, right. you learned it a week ago. the market had this massive panic attack, a tariff tantrum in the morning, and then all was okay because the tariffs on mexico and canada were rolled back about as fast as you can say, tariff. >> i think that's really noteworthy, though, and what that means for c-suite confidence and c-suite decision making on things like capex, on m&a. i know you were i believe you you put out the article in the wall street journal about ceos and kind of what this has done for dealmaking, because there's just so much uncertainty that january was actually much more muted month for big deals than a lot of people were expecting. >> yeah. it's interesting. i mean, scott's got it exactly

right. markets have been extraordinarily calm since really we're really where we were just after election day. but here's the piece in the journal for ceos and bankers. the trump euphoria is fading fast. and then over the weekend again, the journal, the mood of the american consumer is souring. so it's interesting how. >> the coverage. >> on the vibe is not quite matching the price action and certainly. >> the pace of earnings. >> i mean, blended earnings. we're now looking at 16% year on year, much higher than we were at the end of january. >> and tariffs. >> were. >> a big part of earnings calls as well. in the fourth quarter, especially in certain sectors. i had a piece out last. >> week about. >> how, you know, tariff uncertainty can impact bank lending, which also has a follow through to the economy and the risks to growth and so forth. so, scott, i'm curious what you're hearing about kind of this potential disconnect between what it means for consumers and their sentiment, what it means for ceos and their sentiment, and then the markets as a whole, which seems to be a little bit more kind of, you know, we've seen the head fake, so might as well just ignore.

>> it. >> and focus on other things. >> on the sentiment angle c-suite for consumer. i mean, dealmaking is off the slowest january in a decade, which was expected to be, you know, you hit the ground running into 2025. that was part of the euphoria about trump's victory once again, was going to lead to this renaissance in dealmaking. and it still may. i mean, obviously, what are we six weeks into the administration, but at least to start, because, as you know, corporate america is trying to assess the fallout from tariffs. well, consumers are too. that's why to what you're talking about inflation expectations last week. and yamiche were you know a spike higher. why? well i mean are prices going to go up because of tariffs. it creates a little bit of a chaotic backdrop. a lot of uncertainty that whether you're in the c-suite or just a consumer trying to make it buy every day with the price of eggs way up, obviously not related to tariffs, but bird flu. et cetera. it creates a little uncertainty. >> and then i saw one economist point out the fact that, you

know, with aluminum and steel tariffs in particular, what does that mean for global growth. and if it does provide some sort of a dent to global growth, does that offset the potential risks for inflation. in other words, can consumers absorb some of the price hikes or will they just stop purchasing some of the things where they see the price hikes, leading to more of a dampening of growth? >> or do corporates absorb it and margins. right. i mean, that's another story too. >> and you're beginning to see. >> various efforts. >> to lower expense structures. meta. >> we're going. >> to talk about meta and some of these layoffs reportedly beginning today. they're coming from a position. >> of extraordinary strength. >> and yet they're getting more efficient. >> and all. >> of this sort of leads you to a ten year that is not really straying. >> far from four and a half. >> not to mention all the layoffs in the government right now, and just. >> the kind. >> of like cleansing of led by doge of some of the offices there. we saw the cfpb over the weekend shut its offices. we don't know about layoffs there per se, but in terms of roles and responsibilities and actual oversight, it seems to be that that has been pulled back

dramatically. the office space to essentially closed for now. so, you know, all of that put together, i think net net will be an interesting. >> story. >> although we're moving now, and. this got reflected over the weekend into a period where these court rulings, for example, the one on friday about doge and treasury and irreparable harm, and then the pushback from the vice president, for example, who suggested, really, court orders can be defied. >> yeah. >> and at what point does that challenge to. >> what you. >> might call rule. >> of law. get reflected in investment decisions and the interest in either. foreign direct or domestic investment, too? >> that's a really good point. it definitely tests kind of the system of balances and certain checks there. and yeah, he said that essentially the executive power outweighs some of these rulings. >> look, i think the market is getting reasonably good at blocking out noise, what it deems to be noise and focusing on the facts. and the fact is that earnings have been pretty

good and earnings growth has been pretty good at the top end of what the expectations were. and i think you're trying to look beyond that. and why you see the futures on a morning like this higher. also towards the ten year note yield. you had the treasury secretary sort of jawboning that last week when he sort of was pushing back on this notion of what trump addressed at davos as we're going to i'm going to, you know, demand that interest rates go lower. well, i mean, okay, i mean, you can say whatever he wants, but i mean, how is he going to do that? best last week in an interview was like, look, we're not he's not demanding that interest rates go lower. we're more focused on keeping the ten year down. so maybe that's got a little bit of a cap on the ten year as their focus is much more on that. but i think the market reaction this morning is just sort of like, you know what? we let's just chill, cut the noise out, let's see what real like really happens. and then we'll figure it out as we go. otherwise the market would be down a lot more on a morning. back in 16, if you

put 25% tariffs on steel and you're going to have more tariffs maybe rolled out later, reciprocal tariffs, etc, the market reaction would probably be different than it is today. >> yeah it is. >> it is remarkable. i mean i don't know if you've seen this opinion piece in the times by summers, rubin, geithner, lew and yellen. 18 years of combined treasury secretary experience basically saying that doge is a threat to democracy. no other treasury secretary in his first weeks in office should be put in a position where. >> it's. >> necessary to reassure the world you're going to make good on your payments. and their argument is that they had to do exactly that. and yet it not reflected at all in what stocks have done in recent days. meanwhile, there's china. retaliatory tariffs on u.s. goods now in effect. let's get to eunice yoon this morning in beijing with the latest. hey, eunice. >> hey, carl. >> well. >> china's counter-tariffs. >> are probably not. >> going to have a meaningful impact on american business. unlike president trump's blanket tariffs, china's are targeted. goldman sachs has estimated that the chinese levies cover $14. >> billion.

>> of. >> u.s. exports. >> to china. >> so that's only. >> about 10% of the overall. >> number of. >> goods that the u.s. ships shipped to china last year. what one. what is going to be important for us to watch, though, going forward, is. >> just how willing china. >> is to expand its. retaliatory toolbox. already we saw a. >> willingness. >> or at. >> least a seemingly willingness. >> last week. >> to target specific companies. so last week, when the chinese were announcing. the countermeasures, one of the actions was to launch an antitrust investigation into. >> google to blacklist. >> pvh as well as aluminum. >> and then last december, it also. >> launched an anti, an antitrust investigation. into nvidia. >> there are also reports that the antitrust. >> watchdog is. >> now. >> mulling. >> a investigation. >> into apple. >> so you have. >> all of that. and then. >> overnight the wall street journal. >> was reporting that the chinese strategy could be. >> to expand. >> this to.

>> include broadcom as well as synopsis. >> so the. >> chinese foreign. >> ministry today responded to that, dismissing the report. but this is something that the business community here has been. very concerned about as president trump takes. >> office. >> that the chinese. would be using this type of retaliatory tool to push back against whatever president trump decides to do, guys. >> meanwhile, eunice, i don't know if you've noticed, but i mean, after a period of drastic underperformance, kweb is up 10% for the year. s&p is up only two. i just wonder if there is a sense that money is flowing in your direction. once again. >> you know. >> from outside there. >> i've heard that people say that the values of. >> chinese stocks. >> has gotten so low. >> so maybe this is a time to. >> get in. >> but from a. >> chinese perspective. >> a lot of investors. are staying very. >> far away. >> from the. chinese stock, from. >> the chinese. >> stock market. of course, a lot of. >> chinese cannot unless. >> you're really a.

>> professional. >> invest outside of the country. there are a lot of capital. >> controls that make. >> it difficult for people to. do that. >> and in fact. >> what we're seeing. >> here is many. >> chinese investors. >> and just. >> ordinary chinese looking to. >> open u.s. >> dollar accounts. >> as well. >> as investing. >> into gold. >> so it's a. >> little bit. of an irony, actually, because. >> the messaging in. >> china has always. >> been that that. >> the dollar shouldn't. >> dominate, that. >> that the. >> yuan should, should gain an international status, but its own people are looking. >> at the us dollar. >> thinking maybe. >> that's a. >> better investment. >> yeah, it does explain gold at all time highs once again. eunice, we'll talk. with more frequency today. eunice yoon in beijing. when we come back, a closer look at last night's super bowl, including what the numbers show about betting on the big game. we'll get to some earnings movers. we'll take a look at the week. it's going to be busy between a lot of consumer names. mcdonald's one example. coke. marriott shopify powell on the hill. next couple of days. cpi and ppi. stay with us.

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you want low maintenance, go with timbertech. >> all right. >> the eagles weren't the only winners when it comes to last night's super bowl. contessa brewer is at hq with a look at the sports betting landscape. contessa. >> yeah that was a really stunning eagles win there 40 to 22. and now we're getting a big picture. stunning look at betting for the super bowl from geocomply. 14% growth in active player accounts over the weekend up from last year's big game. it was more than 724,000 new online betting accounts. just before halftime of the super bowl, right after the eagles scored their third touchdown of the game, geocomply recorded a peak of 14,300 geolocation transactions per second. now, circa sports ceo derek stevens told me in the wee hours of the morning that he saw a record super bowl sunday for both handle and win, that the sportsbooks benefited from the growth in prop bets and the fact that there were no touchdowns from popular players like saquon barkley or travis kelce. before

the game, caesars said. a bettor at the sportsbook in new orleans made a quarter million dollar bet on the chiefs to cover minus one. oops. though the eagles wagers were slightly outweighing the chiefs wagers just before kickoff. caesars says it had the biggest in-game handle ever for a super bowl, the amount of money wagered increasing because of that lopsided score. at halftime, bettors were just piling in to gamble on a chiefs comeback. looks like there were some bad bets. fanduel spokesman chris jones told me nearly 2 million fans made a pick on that kick of destiny. more than half picked eli manning and they won ten bucks each in bonus bets. meanwhile, fanduel ceo amy howe told me friday on squawk box she wants to see more enforcement against offshore, unregulated sportsbooks and those fantasy plus operators that offer play. that certainly looks a lot like sports betting, and they're not paying the licensing fees. well, later that same day, on friday, the illinois attorney general sent out a consumer alert about the risks of unlicensed betting

apps and sites and said he sent cease and desist letters to bovada, which is a big offshore platform, and prize picks, which is a fantasy site. and geocomply says in states where this kind of enforcement action is happening, growth in new accounts for the sportsbooks is twice as high as in states where unlicensed play is ignored. so you can see why it's important to draftkings, fanduel fanatics and the like to see the unlicensed players really come into focus, guys. >> all right, >> contessa, thank you. contessa brewer. yeah. the oddsmakers got it a little bit wrong, do you think. yeah. that was an old fashioned beat down. it reminded me of the mid to late 80s, early 90s super bowls, where the nfc was just dominant at the line of scrimmage on both sides and beat the afc. and i don't know, it felt like ten straight super bowls back then between my guys in dc and the giants, the niners and the cowboys. back to bully

ball. that's what that was. >> i was on. >> the wrong side of broncos washington back then. what was that 5510 or something like that. yeah good for stocks though right. nfc championships generally good for the market. >> is that true? because i feel like ryan detrick had some stats last week or so that said that anytime philadelphia wins a championship, that it is bad for stocks. i guess it happened in zero eight. i'm trying to think off the top of my head. some other times it happened. it happened right before the crash of 29. some of these were major league baseball. some of them are nfl. >> so as. >> for the ads, a lot of the. desks this morning that sort of look at marketing and advertising are kind of like it was all right, not an overwhelmingly earth shattering assemblage of advertising. although nike's. >> return. >> say, nike. >> the super bowl first time in, what, 26 years, 27. >> years and what and what people have really said, they got away from as the, you know, the company went through the sort of trials and tribulations that it has. here's the ad you're talking about getting,

trying to get back any way to storytelling. marketing. >> yeah. >> which, you know, it's faced so much criticism that it had gotten away from that part of it. i don't i don't think you can look away from that. many of the transcendent athletes who used to be the nike athletes are either retired or close to retirement or no longer endorsing those products. i mean, you know, jordan and tiger and lebron's in the latter stages of his careers. and kobe, sadly, serena, who made a cameo in the in the halftime. >> show. >> kendrick. >> which was awesome. but you know we'll see. i mean this nike's trying to reinvent it, reinvent itself in a sense on the fly. >> yeah the open i got number one in the new york times rankings of the best super bowl ads. it i thought it was pretty cool. i mean, it was all black and white. it had kind of these dots. and then they go through like the history of, of human life, essentially as these pixelated dots and black and

white looking ahead at ai and what that means, i mean, it was it was a pretty powerful ad, and it's definitely a sign of the times that they had a one minute spot. i think it reportedly cost $14 million. >> i would assume. right. 32nd win for went. >> for 8 million. >> or so. right. >> so duncan one was good. did you guys like the duncan one? >> duncan. >> yeah they. >> brought it. belichick the seal. mountain dew was funny. >> matt damon was in a different ad though. >> he did stella with. >> david beckham david beckham the other david i thought that was pretty clever. >> i like the case of the mondays. i thought that was funny for pringles. >> a lot of discussion. >> about flying facial hair, eyebrows. >> and. mustaches flying through the air. >> yeah, i don't. know where that came from. maybe just a sign of the times. perhaps still to come. could today mark sweet 16 for meta. the stock looking to extend its record daily win streak. take another look at futures at this hour. lots of green across the stream screen implied open for nasdaq up 180 implied open for nasdaq up 180 points right now. more squawk on (wind, rain and rolling thunder)

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>> the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income alternatives and responsible investing. >> meta enters a new trading week. on this record run, they are aiming for a 16th straight session of gains. they've already hit all time highs in terms of consecutive gains. i think with 13. pretty amazing run. we know what it's done over the past 52 weeks. up more than 54% as as zuckerberg's found a way to pivot yet again. >> yeah i think they were even up on the deep sick day, weren't they? because everybody. >> was saying. >> they would be. yeah, exactly. the one beneficiary of more efficiencies in that world. and this comes interestingly as they have the performance calling this week where people are going to be notified that due to performance standards, they will no longer be employed by the company and will receive severance packages. coming from a position of strength, of

course, but. interesting for meta for people that. >> we talk. >> a lot. >> about retail. >> traders buying the dip, but there's been no dip. >> in meta. yeah, it. >> keeps getting bought. let's get the opening bell here. >> in. the cnbc. >> realtime exchange in the big board. >> it's american healthcare reach celebrating its. >> first listing. >> anniversary at the nasdaq oncology company novocure. as we get set for as we said, pretty busy session next five. trading days of earnings and there'll be some. >> hallmark names. >> we've already gotten mcdonald's. >> under our belt, but coke's on the way. >> marriott. >> draftkings, wendy's a lot of consumer names. >> this is an. exceptionally busy week. we're already halfway through earnings season, but we do have inflation data coming out wednesday. you have powell on the hill on tuesday and wednesday. there are a bunch of bank conferences as well. so we're going to get a lot of likely guidance and a lot of macro commentary coming from ceos at the ubs financial services conference, which starts today and that continues

tomorrow, and then the bank of america financial services conference on wednesday, not to mention 13 etfs are on a friday. the deadline there. i was where they're doing an offering to sell their entire stake in charles schwab, raising $14 billion. they're kind of disposing that remaining 10% economic ownership that they had, that they acquired back in 2020 as part of a deal there to combine their brokerage units. and now, given the kind of challenges that td faces, trying to replenish that whole the multi-billion dollars worth of fines it faced related to its money laundering issues at some of its u.s. branches, they're kind of using some sell downs of schwab to pay for that, essentially. but that's a big mover today. the i believe schwab was down about 2%. >> what did you make of the weekend? elliott bp is interesting late last week. ackman uber. yeah i thought it was interesting as well. if you

let's see what uber is doing this morning. is it higher again because it was up quite substantially on ackman's post on social media that he had taken a new position. there's the headline over the weekend, elliott building a stake in struggling bp. we'll follow that. uber is up again. wow. uber's up another 4% this morning. it was about 8% on that ackman revelation that he had taken. what was it 30 million shares. >> 30 million shares. yeah i mean it's interesting because we were talking earlier this hour about how kind of the deal animal spirits were staying pretty hibernated so far this year. but from the activism side of things, we heard this a lot from activist advisors toward the tail end of last year. that seems to be really ramping up, at least in january. i don't know if it has to do with politics necessarily, but perhaps it's more reflection of the market itself, because typically, scott, when you see the broader markets at a higher level, you've got these mega cap

names that have that are perceived to have limited downside just given their size and scale when the market is doing well. but they're underperforming the market, perhaps thinking more in the case of bp, that's kind of a nice a nice way for an activist to have an entrance and get a pop on the day or the day after in uber's case that it's disclosed. >> yeah. tesla's lower, by the way. i mean, there's been a pretty good debate among very well known, you know, money managers on the trajectory of both of those stocks, a relative to each other, right. >> relative to uber. >> well, uber versus tesla, sort of full, full self-driving, obviously. and, you know, as you know, musk has tried to really push that forward. the i think conventional thought at the time in the market was, well, what's good for tesla is bad for uber. you know, tesla was up uber was down on that news. remember brad gerstner sitting with me in san francisco saying, well, we're out of uber and we've been long term supporters because we just think that, you know, if musk if it's not him having his thumb on the scale, it is going to be a

perceived threat to what uber is doing. i just think it's interesting that ackman sort of is on the other side of that thinking that, you know, uber is going to be a big winner no matter what tesla does. and we said the stock's up what 12% in two sessions. >> and ackman i mean i don't know if he's necessarily a supporter of musk. but they're certainly friendly on twitter i wouldn't call him a not supporter. >> oh i think he'd. >> probably tell you himself. he's probably a supporter based on the post that he's had relative to elon. i don't i don't think he would shy away from that in any way, shape or form. >> right. meantime, market is still trying to price in whatever musk's involvement in politics is doing to the brand. it is a 26% drawdown on tesla, and today stifel does cut. they're still at 4.74, but they trim by about 20 bucks. needham reiterates a hold, and they argue that the long term growth drivers fsd robotics, optimus, in their words, are more priced in than not. so it's interesting how much the street is going to

be willing to look down the highway, so to speak, because the auto sales are already a minimal percentage of people's modeling. >> yeah, and i guess the. tariff implications on auto manufacturing and how many of those raw materials will be more expensive as a result of what's looking like a potential trade war globally? >> yeah, interesting. >> numbers out of mcdonald's stock was up pre-market, but they do miss by a penny. revenue was light down a little bit year on year. it was the comps biggest us comp decline in five years, and the. fifth consecutive quarter of a us comp miss. interesting comments. the guidance out of the 8-k had pretty healthy margin discussions. still looking at the high 40s versus 46 in 2024. but a lot of. commentary about the lower income cohort, which they argue continues to see pressure. that's not a new. >> argument for mcdonald's. >> but the fact that. >> they reiterated this time is going to make things interesting on the consumer front. >> and they did have the value

meal, and it looked like traffic was at least. >> coming into. their stores, but. >> obviously at a lower. >> price point with some. >> of the value additions that they had. and then they had the whole e coli thing, which i think a lot of people shied away from their stores as a result of some negative headlines surrounding e coli exposure, which would be a rational move. i think from a consumer standpoint. >> the question is, what do you do, carl? you know this company better than anybody, really, from the time that you've spent? well, most all right. better than most. better than. is that better? the question is what do you do in terms of discounting more value items to try and draw in consumers? i was reading one of the articles this morning where one of the analysts was questioning whether deep discounting was a winning recipe for sales growth. that was the analyst's words, but it speaks to it speaks to what, you know, they're they're charged with, like, how do you draw in more traffic? how do you get sales up and not cut your menu prices too much, that it has an overall negative impact on sales growth? >> i mean, it's really two stories on on qsr. one is

kitchen complexity. and we've seen starbucks, for example, start to remove some menu items. try to get the process faster. chipotle is really good at that already. but the other thing is mcdonald's is often seen as a proxy for employment. so if you have a job to go to in the morning, you will. that's a obviously a bigger, more odds that you're going to stop there on the way. and the jobs number, although, you know, we had. a miss on friday, still reflects an environment where we're kind of at full employment. >> i have to also wonder to that point how much automation will play a role in the restaurant space. have you guys been to the sweetgreen down here at wall street recently? they've been almost entirely automated. the making of salad at that sweetgreen whereby you go there, you put your order on an ipad, and then there's this whole big machine. it looks like you're on a factory floor that makes the salad. this wasn't the case, by the way. at the end of last year, they've changed it and they have two people working there just to kind of make sure that your order is correct. i think it's still early days for

this product. i don't know what it means for margins, but the idea of automation, if you're looking to, you know, maintain margins and cut costs, is an interesting subject as it pertains to this space as well. >> i will be intelligent enough to know what you want before you get there, and have it made next time by the robotics that that you're talking about, probably no matter what. quick, serve a restaurant. you're you're you're speaking about whether it's mcdonald's or what have you. right. the facial recognition when you walk in, oh there's picker. yeah, exactly. i know what she wants today. >> her iron. >> levels through. >> the robots. >> adding that. >> steak to the salad. >> just like. >> like minority report. >> yes. >> how are the how did those pants work out, mr. nakamoto? >> like, it's kind of creepy, but also, i don't know, that seems that seems like something that would be nice. >> where mcdonald's shares doing. well they're up. oh, they're up 5% now. that's that's the highs of the morning, you know. yes us comps down one for total comps though were positive

i guess because international is starting to look a little bit better than it was. that seems to be the story. yeah. >> yeah i think so. the other interesting consumer story is disney. i don't know if you saw the. story over the weekend looking at some internal discussions at the mouse, where there is a level of concern as to whether they're locking out a certain portion of the classic disney world disneyland clientele. >> because they. >> have relied. >> so much on pricing. >> so we have flights booked in april, but we have not purchased tickets yet, and i'm wondering if maybe we should just kind of wait it out a little bit if that decision ultimately. but i will say we were looking at ticket prices. they are astronomical for a family of four. astronomical. so i know there are disney diehards who will pay anything and they will go no matter what, but i can absolutely see a certain cohort of this economy being priced out for a very long time. >> meantime, we're watching big tech, these capex figures that we got last week from all the hyperscalers are going to start feeding into the supplier

earnings, which we're going to get over the next few weeks. nvidia, dell, broadcom, nvidia is up 3%. this is going to take you almost back. >> to the. >> 50 day, which it lost earlier in january. news out of onsemi today revenue was a bit light. that was down pre-market. you mentioned openai and they did say that they're working further on their custom chip design, which then they would outsource to tsmc, which is having its own issues regarding the earthquake in taiwan. guidance will be at the they'll be coming to the low end of guidance. they say that's a healthy rebound for nvidia. >> well there was a positive call to on it today. evercore says the deep sea sell off creates an opportunity for buyers into earnings. tactical obviously. but you know there's a fair debate happening on the street right now as to whether the big beat and raise days for nvidia were over before deep sea just because. how can you possibly keep up? i'm not saying it's like you can't beat and raise, but how do you beat and raise by that much continuously

to keep the stock and the expectations where they have just been unbelievable. now deep sea creates even more questions going in, but the stock sold off considerably and had a hard time recovering from that. >> yeah, i also i have to wonder too, what it means for investment into china. there was that piece over the weekend, i believe, which talked about how the deep sea phenomenon has kind of reignited interest in investing in china. and this comes against the backdrop of everything we've seen with bytedance and tiktok and all of the geopolitical issues. but you do have a, you know, incredible amount of talent in china, which is important for the tech ecosystem. and so just kind of what deep sea revealed about the potential for investing there in a in a way that really hasn't been the case over the last few years or so, is. these tensions have simmered as the, you know, nation's have decoupled as a result of just the competitive threat. they're kind of reigniting the interest in investing in china, i thought was was pretty interesting and pretty bold, right.

>> well, we were. in a period not that long ago, a few quarters where china was, quote, uninvestable remember? and it was only about their stimulus. and every monday we'd walk in here and we'd either be disappointed or confused about how they were going to react with with public policy. but as we said, kweb is up in the mid-teens so far. >> year to date. >> yeah. and i think the deep tech engineers who created the ai model there, they were all educated in china. you know, there was this trend for a very long time that a lot of the tech entrepreneurs from china would come and get educated in the uk. in the us, they would go back to china and bring what they've learned back to the chinese markets. in the case of deep sea, they were all actually educated on the mainland there and were able to still come up with, you know, the model that was competitive and more efficient than a lot of or perceived to be more efficient than a lot of the us alternatives. >> most ai related stocks, since we're talking ai, are hired this morning. dell, one of the better

performers, up a little more than 2% this year. vertiv some of the cyber security names are strong. tech in general is leading, as you might guess today, if you look at the overall performance of the market, nasdaq's up 150, about three quarters of 1%. >> the other. >> thing that's of note are just industrials in general. rockwell automation i think was leading the s&p as they beat. and i think they revenue was in line johnson controls jci gets an upgrade today over at ubs. you look at what new orders have done on ism re accelerating. we've talked about what capex is doing and capex intentions re accelerating. so if there is going to be a broadening out of the mag, i think was it b of a last week called it the mag. >> one mag one meta. >> because because meta is the only one that's outperformed since earnings. maybe it bleeds into some of these automation stocks. >> the mag one not not quite as catchy. you can just say meta probably. but no it's a good it's an important point i think dispersion to amid everything

we're talking about from the macro standpoint, dispersion is pretty high right now, which is a healthy sign for stocks. it's a healthy sign that investors are taking all of the macro headlines in stride and able to kind of extrapolate what it means for individual names, i don't believe. and scott, correct me if i'm wrong, i don't believe that was the case the first time around. back in, say, 2018, 2019, there wasn't as much dispersion. it was kind of the tide moving in conjunction with all of these different headlines, which may speak to your earlier point about the fact that the market is looking through them and focusing more on idiosyncratic factors of. >> the day. >> equal weight, by the way, is ahead of the s&p year to date. so, you know, it hasn't only been a mag seven story. and in most cases it's been everything but mag seven especially of late because the earnings right meta as we talk about all morning long was the only one to be up after earnings. and we'll see what happens with nvidia in a couple of weeks. but you have had a number of other areas like

carl just said industrials up almost 5% on the year. health care. health care up better than 5% on the year and materials up 5% as well. so talks about what you guys are talking about in the sort of broadening of the market. a lot of things other than big tech are really sort of leading the boat. >> yeah. >> dow meantime up 66 this morning holding on to 6050 s&p more or less as we go to break watch bonds. not a lot of data or fed speak today but we'll get some as we move through the week of course powell tomorrow senate banking and then house financial services on wednesday are going to be the tentpole events for the week ten year still south of 4.5. be right back. >> in. the bond report is brought to you by pimco, a global leader in active fixed income. >> here's some information about replacing. >> windows and doors that just may surprise you.

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miss and us comps falling by the most in nearly five years. david palmer joins us this morning. evercore isi restaurant and packaged food analyst, has a buy on mcdonald's and a target of 340. david, good to see you again. >> hey, carl. good morning. >> seems like an impressive bounce for a call that talks about fast food. having a sluggish start to the year. >> yeah. >> yeah, it's. >> rough in the us. >> they talked about. >> double digit. >> declines in the low income. consumer out there. >> in the. >> us in particular. >> it's rough. but they talked about it being tough. in in low. >> income consumer cohorts. >> in many of their iom. they talked. about weakness in the uk and australia. they're definitely battling a soft industry in many developed markets. >> there was some good news. >> out there. they're lapping some of the gaza us brand issues that started around. >> november of 23. >> so they're lapping that and they saw acceleration there. and they've had some nice wins. >> and. >> some value. >> relaunches which are helping traffic sequentially. >> and then they hope that.

>> things will get better into the second quarter with some new food news, particularly in the us. >> so what is your general bullish thesis on it? >> it's really. >> about the us same store sales. growth accelerating. they the traffic has turned positive in the. >> us in the fourth quarter. january started off in a sluggish way across the industry. >> where there's. >> been a big factor. there's been some calendar issues with holidays falling in the middle of the week and it's disrupting certain traffic. but going. into this spring and summer, you're you're going to have. >> the benefit. >> of this past value. you know, they did that for five. they did a buy one get one menu as well that's helping their traffic. and now they're. >> going to try. >> to reinflate the check which had gone negative in for q in particular. remember they had that e coli issue which also hurt family business. they feel like the brand's recovering off of that. and with chicken innovation coming strips and wraps, they can reinflate that

check. and the comps in the us will drive the multiple higher. we think. >> you know, i'm glad you went right where you did because i wanted to ask you about, you know, you mentioned these value options that they have. and sure, it drives traffic, but obviously you want to get the spend up. and i saw one analyst earlier, as i referenced with carl and leslie earlier, suggesting, quote, deep discounting is not a winning recipe for sales growth. you want to weigh in on that. >> it's. >> yeah. well, this is a tricky thing. revenue management in fast food is always about trying to do your value on one side and then show that value, get the traffic in and trade them up on the other side with premium new news, maybe that premium innovation. and in the case particularly with snack wrap, which is a mid-priced item that could have a positive traffic impact itself, but a lot of this is going to help reinflate the check. the problem is, is the way the bed's been made for fast food is there's been an over 40% increase in pricing during the covid era, and that well outpaced wage growth of 25%. so

what you're seeing is this hangover from the covid era of inflation with that low income consumer, and the company has to do value to get them back in the game before they can start reinflating the check. and that's going to start in two. >> q at what at what point, i guess i want to ask about the competitive environment there, because it seems like inflation is pricing consumers out of a lot of places. and so at what point does mcdonald's become more attractive from the inflation standpoint, because they're able to bring consumers in at a more attractive value than anywhere else? i mean, is that happening, or do you think that there needs to be a change in pricing there? >> you know, it's not when it comes to franchise fast food. you can't control the prices of what the franchisees price. they take recommendations from a consultant in terms of their list price of their menu. what you can do is get together and do value menus, and that can portray value, particularly with these big advertising budgets.

remember, those are percent of sales advertising budgets. so you can imagine how huge that budget is right now. and if they portray that value with their value tiers, which looks like the four five is going to stick around, perhaps past the summer, then you have the right to trade them back up again. so this is the game they're trying to play. they actually did it once already when they did the four for five really in july. got got it going on traffic by october. dropped the chicken big mac and they were comping mid-single digits before e coli hit. so they're just trying to run it back again and get this check to reinflate. but right now it's their their check is comping negative until they get the chicken news in. >> meanwhile david, some of the earnings we've gotten the last few weeks, i'm thinking about some of these comps numbers at at brinker, for example, just eye popping on a two year stack at least. i mean, to what degree is that a competitive threat versus food at home, for example? >> well, it's been genius. what

kevin hochman and team have done by juxtaposing what chili's value is versus mcdonald's and poking fun at the big fast food and all the pricing that they took, that they've gotten tremendous traction with them. they've probably been the most compelling barbell strategy of value and premium, because when you go into chili's, you end up spending more than what the 1099 would suggest. beautiful move by them. so that's been just great marketing, certainly fast casual and casual dining by by appealing to the middle to upper income consumer. that's been a beautiful thing for them versus fast food, traditional fast food. they just have a lot of exposure that low income consumer we talked about that's been a real wrestling match in terms of getting those people out. >> yeah, that's a good explanation. explanation of what's going on with the dow's number one name this morning david good to see you. talk soon. david palmer mcdonald's. meantime dow is up 129 to start

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alternatives by franklin templeton your trusted partner for what's ahead. >> three and 30 is sponsored by franklin templeton, your trusted partner for what's ahead. >> good monday morning. welcome to another hour of squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla, along scott wapner and leslie picker here at post nine of the new york stock exchange. david and sarah have the morning off. market weighing more tariff headlines that continued solid earnings cycle and a fairly subdued yields this morning with the ten year still south of four and a half. energy's carrying some water. oil's up a full dollar but tech is also up 1%. >> we're 30 minutes into the trading session. here are some movers we are watching at this hour. steel and aluminum related stocks jumping on fresh tariff talk from president trump. the details and the fallout in a moment. and shares of t mobile are rallying the company, saying it started widescale testing of its satellite to cell service powered by spacex's starlink.

those shares up about 2.4% right now, and we're keeping an eye on meta shares. the company expected to begin job cuts as soon as today, and coming off 15 straight days of gains, currently up about a quarter of a percent. we'll see if they can hold on. more on this story ahead. >> meantime, as far as markets go, tariff headlines do dominate the weekend as investors work through an increasingly murky outlook for inflation and rates ahead. morgan stanley writing they now expect just one cut from the fed this year. our senior markets commentator michael santoli is here to break things down. i think b of a also said the window for cuts is basically shut in their words for the foreseeable. and that's one of the things the market is, i think, contending with in this stuck period where we've basically been in this narrow range, the s&p 500 has traded plus or -3% since the november 6th close. that's it. that's all you've got in one way or the other. if you look at things like the equal weighted s&p, if you look at the industrials, you look at the small caps. it's

completely unwound. whatever expected kind of growth, acceleration impulse you might have gotten policy wise. but the markets held in there because it's okay if the fed is on hold. if the if the here and now economy is all right. no real alarm evident in credit markets in the volatility trade, any of that not showing any stress. but i do think it's fascinating that it's become a much more selective market. and the stuff that's working is having to do a little bit more to keep the indexes supported. only about 60% of s&p 500 stocks are really in a technical uptrend right now. a lot of the cyclical groups outside of consumer are kind of flagging just a little bit. i don't know that it's just tariffs. i think it's just that almost everything we're seeing that's front loaded in terms of policy is growth neutral or slightly negative. whereas, you know, that kind of bedrock idea that it's going to be a growth friendly policy mix and we're going to get some forms of tax relief down the road is kind of deferred at this point. >> yeah. which seems to be

counterintuitive relative to what happened during president trump's first term, where we saw tax cuts kind of right off the bat and tariffs followed that later. what does that mean for some of the trump trades that had been operating on that same playbook, that then had to kind of reassess when they realized that the front loaded policies were the ones that were, as you say. yeah. >> they they mostly fizzled. so, you know, if you thought it was small caps, i mean, sell treasuries, maybe it was a trump trade and the yields have gone higher, but they're well off their highs at this point. the market seems a little more sensitive to this idea that we might see more evidence of, you know, housing market being pretty paralyzed right now, a little bit more of the lagged effect of the higher rates that we saw in the fourth quarter for the broader economy. that's part of it. i'm mostly just looking at the way the market behaves day to day. the last three fridays, the s&p touched 6100 didn't hold. it ended up down on the day. in fact, each high was lower than the previous one. you don't want to slice it too thin, but the market's kind of saying

it's going to take an extra bit of oomph to get us to the next phase higher, if in fact, that's what's waiting for us. meantime, i keep thinking of the desk notes that are, you know, which ones i mean. yeah, saying they would write a tactically bearish note, but the flows right now are so encouraging. they have been for weeks especially kind of single stock retail flows have been remarkable. so there is this kind of source of adrenaline that's hitting the market in that way. i mentioned on friday palantir traded twice as much dollar volume as apple did. okay. apple is like whatever it is, eight times as big or something like that. maybe even more than that, maybe like 13 times as large. market cap. the problem. the point is, you know, we're just kind of turning it over that rapidly. and palantir really is the poster child for that action. and, you know, nvidia has kind of taken a turn in there as well. so there's just enough mega-cap stuff working to keep things moving in that direction. but you've been really

disciplined at looking at like dynamics like that. and also on the watch for the silly stuff. yeah. which i mean, i know you've been no fan of how quantum trading or certain elements of crypto, you see, some eruptions in that direction. was gamestop moving today because of a photo like that kind of stuff? now that can just carry on for a while. and that is just a little bit of like the bull market sort of venting off a little bit of that energy. i don't think it's one of those things where you say, oh no, that we're drowning in the froth because we're not. we have you guys have been talking about we have no ipos. you have none of the supply issues. therefore the demand for stocks, whatever form it's coming in, manages to be a net positive. by the way, ipos, the big one that we had is like way down from the initial pricing and then the initial open. if you remember. >> that came on a disappointing offering as well, which was downsized from the original expectations. both of the ipo, the big ipos that we've had this year have. >> i do think that the initial companies that hit the window

are like, these are sold. these are these are owners or private equity that kind of needs to get that thing out there as opposed to, do i have a great opportunity for you? >> oh yeah, i would agree with that. the stories are tough. i mean, they're both like declining top line and, you know, no kind of real big growth driver in the future. those are hard, hard stories to sell in this market especially. >> yeah mike thanks. talking to mike santoli. the president expected to announce new tariffs meantime on all steel and aluminum imports into the us. names like cleveland-cliffs u.s. steel alcoa and nucor. moving higher on that news. let's get to eamon javers this morning with the latest from washington. good morning eamon. >> yeah good morning carl. we don't know exactly when we're going to see the president issue these new tariffs today. there is an event here at 1:00 this afternoon in the oval office where we might see the president on camera actually issuing these tariffs. we'll keep an eye on that. here's what the president said yesterday about what he's exactly going to do today. >> we'll also be announcing steel tariffs on monday.

tomorrow monday. yeah. tomorrow. what happens with those. go on everybody. steel if you think that makes any steel coming into the united states is going to have a 25% tariff for aluminum to. >> meanwhile kevin hassett, the national economic council director, was on cnbc a couple of hours ago. guys, you know, there was this question that came up as trump was talking on air force one yesterday. he said something about there being fraud in u.s. treasuries. and a lot of people were immediately questioning, well, is he talking about the us treasury market, the debt markets? it looks like. and the guidance i'm getting from officials here is that no. what trump was talking about in those comments yesterday that got a lot of people's attention, was actually just this idea that the us treasury department has been issuing payments, that this administration has found were improper. they were not issuing payments correctly. here's what kevin hassett said about that a couple of hours ago here on

cnbc. >> the treasury secretary has found that the controls for spending of the previous administration were unacceptable, that they were sending money out without knowing where the money was going. they were sending money out without flagging. you know what it was for. they didn't check before they sent the money out, whether it was appropriate. >> so guys, we'll wait and see when we get these announcements. but what we're expecting as of right now is 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum coming from anywhere in the world into the united states. and then also these reciprocal tariffs that the president's been talking about in terms of tariffs on countries that have tariffs against us goods themselves. so we'll wait for that announcement and see when we get the actual specifics back over to you. >> so eamon you look at a list of who is importing the most steel by origin to the united states and canada for both metals is above and beyond the biggest for steel. it's 11 billion for aluminum. it's 9.5

billion. and mexico for steel is the second biggest importer. and i have to wonder, given what we've already seen with those two nations in the trade war, if there's a potential for a rollback on this as well, given that they've already they they cut a pretty quick deal. >> yeah. i think if you look at donald trump, you know, he's a hard liner on all these issues. but he's a flexible hardliner. i mean, this is a president who's willing to take yes for an answer if he can get some kind of leverage and some kind of win from that leverage. so i think you're right, as you look at that, you know, is there something that those countries could do to sort of, you know, wriggle out of this by offering something to this administration? we don't see any indication of that yet, necessarily. but with all these things, you know, they're in place until they're not in place. and so you have to watch all the negotiations that are going on behind the scenes. >> meanwhile, eamon, we thought maybe we'd get a little clarity on budget over the weekend. it looks like we're going to have to wait a little bit longer. and this two step between who we

watch more, the house or the senate. and then these ongoing headlines about to what degree they would be willing to dip into things like medicare benefits. >> yeah. look, the president has said that he doesn't want any kind of benefits that go to the american people to be changed in any way. but, you know, you've got a lot of people who are very excited about cutting spending. and if you want to cut spending, you know, those social benefits are one of the places that you might have to go. so far, though, what this administration, what doge has been saying publicly and what elon musk has been saying publicly is what they're going after is just going to be waste, fraud and abuse. so any kind of improper unauthorized payments that have been going out, you know, sort of heedlessly from the federal government is something they're going to target. you know, as for the strategy up on capitol hill, that's still all tbd as well, carl. >> eamon, thanks a lot. appreciate it eamon javers as we do head to break. here's our road map for the rest of the hour as president trump considers more tariffs. china's own tariffs go into effect today. is china better prepared this time around.

>> plus one super bowl ad causing big controversy in what weight loss drugs have to do with it. >> and fly eagles fly. the philadelphia eagles blowing out the kansas city chiefs last night. super agent drew rosenhaus will join us to talk about it. and this ever changing sports investing landscape. squawk on the street continues squawk on the street continues after this. check in time is 3:00 it's 2:55. i know. is this what he's doing now? as your host, i have some rules. first, no showers longer than 5 minutes. this isn't a spa. no games. no fun. yes, coach. (♪♪) meanwhile, at a vrbo... when other vacation rentals make you share your turf with a host, try one you have all to yourself. our sample packs

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largest investment managers in the world, family offices and otherwise the likes of david tepper, for example, and appaloosa, which has filed its 13 f and carl had pointed out earlier this morning the k web was a big winner. names like alibaba and baidu and didi and jd.com. i mentioned those names specifically because it looks as though mr. tepper has increased his positions in china as it relates to china and technology. and you remember that now famous interview from squawk box, where he came on and essentially said, buy everything china related. that's me paraphrasing it. >> more than he did. he say he. >> said everything. he said everything. okay, >> etfs. >> i would do futures, everything. okay. so apparently he's putting his money where his mouth is and he continues to do just that. so what you you know i think so smartly referenced a little while ago carl the change

in time from when china was viewed as uninvestable to a real moment in time, where tepper came on our air and said, no, in fact, it is very investable and buy everything now. he is a continued believer in that story there, despite weakness in the economy. and here we talk for, you know, 20 plus minutes about trade wars and the like. china has made it clear that they're going to do whatever they have to do. they'll stimulate as much as they have to stimulate. if they need to fight back on the trade war front, they'll do just that. if they need to have regulatory issues with our big technology companies, they're prepared to do just that. they're trying to get as much leverage into the system as they think they need to deal with. trump 2.0, but in the meantime, these investments are viewed by tepper, apparently to continue to be the place to be. baidu baba pd and jd.com. >> yeah, i mean, just looking at the dollar figures of and this is, of course, at the end of the fourth quarter. so that would

have been the end of 2024, $1 billion stake in alibaba. we're not just talking about like a, you know, a rounding error here, $1 billion stake in alibaba. contrast that to a $570 million stake in amazon. so these are pretty significant holdings here. baidu about $129 billion worth at the end of the quarter jd.com about 360 million at the end of the quarter. so just kind of going through this pde 519 million or half $1 billion there. but it appears that alibaba over $1 billion stake for appaloosa is very sizable. >> and a multiple of the amazon position. >> and a multiple of the amazon position. i don't see any other billion plus positions in their portfolio other than alibaba. so definitely putting his money where his mouth was in that squawk box. >> i mean, he just had the most deft of touches in, you know, when markets are most dicey. he's proven to be able to

distill all of the noise down into the most easily understood and investable language, probably, if not of anybody. i mean, okay, maybe there's another 2 or 3 people who can do it equally as good as he has over the history of time. but that's what i've taken most from from his way of investing. cut the noise out. keep your eyes on the prize, and i'll distill the most easily understood value in all of this and increase my investments where i. i think they're going to perform best. and this continues to be the place. >> to be. annualized returns of 28%. >> yeah, yeah. arguably the goat i mean, the goat, like, returns. >> for sure. his 13 f's are really fun though, because he does trade in and out of things pretty frequently. i believe he's been in and out of chinese tech before, and he does tend to kind of time it based on what he's seeing on the ground, what he's seeing in the headlines, what he's seeing, you know, based on their own fundamental research there. so it's definitely worth, worth noting today that the chinese tech dynamic here. >> all right. we'll see what else comes out throughout the day as well. it is a good segue to our next conversation. in

fact regulatory chinese tariffs are retaliatory. excuse me chinese tariffs on a number of american products set to take effect today. our next guest says that for china, there is little appetite for a full out trade war. joining us now london school of economics associate professor qiu jin, welcome. it's nice to talk to you this morning. >> great to be with you. >> you know, a lot of what we do is talk about china through an investable angle. as we were just discussing on the desk here, by virtue of one of the greatest money managers ever increasing his positions. they're not running for the hills. and i'm wondering how you think we should view this pending trade war 2.0 between these two nations, and how china might be better prepared this time around to deal with it based on its first experience? >> well, chinese assets are looking very compelling these days in terms of prices. and indeed, many believe that the chinese has economy has reached a bottom. but of course, it would a lot depend on the

response to the trade war. first of all, i think that china doesn't want to escalate and really engage in a full trade war, but it does want to have a reaction rather than just sit back because it wants to have a strong position when it's actually coming back to the negotiation table. so in fact, it is a strategy. and they're talking about using tai chi moves rather than boxing moves, which means a combination of hard and soft moves and then keeping tactics both flexible and pragmatic, in fact. >> but it is, at least at this very moment, in a weaker position. would you agree than it was back in in 2016 during, you know, the original trump administration, just because the economy is just weaker than it was? >> absolutely. there's a pain level threshold that i think no economy. no, no, neither side wants to step over. and the chinese economy because, you know, chinese gdp growth is low. chinese profitability for the companies is low. the us inflationary pressures. but

since then, china has been long been preparing for the return of trump. in fact, the first trade war which didn't accomplish what president trump wanted to do, but it has forced chinese companies to go into complete globalization frenzy, seeking alternative investment routes, supply chains going to asean. and actually, this time around, apart from just the retaliatory responses to the us, china is taking this as an opportunity to build more trade ties, rekindle the global alliances, and even with europe and with many other countries. so this diversification strategy has been on the table. and also what they're saying is that because these tariffs are targeted on lower end products in china, it's actually not killing chinese exports but forcing it to evolve, meaning pushing into higher value added, you know, things that can't really be replaced even with terrorists, including rare earth infused steel and ev materials and so forth. >> what do you make of this? what seems to be an apparent

tactic, i guess, according to some of the reporting that we've been reading here about china trying to increase its leverage through big tech, through the regulatory mechanisms that they might have against some of our large tech companies as a way to increase its own leverage in this fight. >> yeah, i mean, this is for the long game. and again, it's about it's a matter of position of strength when they start to negotiate. i think it is a risky tactic because i think it would benefit china to continue us companies profitability in china. but what it's saying is, look, you know, there's huawei sanctions and sanctions and export controls and all all sorts. these companies do still depend on the chinese market. so according to, you know, their negotiations with president trump, they think that this is going to have them gain a little bit of leverage. >> meantime, after spending much of last year sort of fretting about ongoing deflationary forces in their own economy over the weekend, they've got cpi to five month high. i wonder how

significant you think that is. >> well. >> it's it means that the economy is going to have a at least a modest rebound this year. again, the government is fully committed to a full on stimulus package, and the response will likely depend on, you know, the tariffs. they're really going to use domestic tools to offset some of the tariffs rather than, say, depreciation of the r&b voluntarily. so this means that, you know, stuff is picking up. the stimulus is taking effect. however, i think that one thing is underappreciated outside of china is that it's not that the chinese government doesn't want to put on more stimulus and, and, you know, more actions. but how does it do it without rekindling the debt problem? right? how does it stimulate the growth of the debt problem? that's the thing that they have to figure out. >> keith, thanks for your time very much. we'll talk to you again soon. appreciate that. >> great. thanks. >> as we go to break, check out some of the biggest gainers on the s&p to kick off the week. we got some industrials in there.

we mentioned rockwell earlier. chips are carrying a lot of water. smi nvidia micron western digital all on the list. and you see uber there as well following that news from bill ackman on friday. speaking of gainers financials hovering around some record highs as well as we're entering a week where we will get a couple of big financial services conferences. dow's up services conferences. dow's up 126 more when we return. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job on indeed, it's easier for talented candidates to find it. which makes it easier for you to hire them. visit indeed.com/hire

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disruptor 50 list. is your startup disrupting the status quo? scan this code or go to cnbc.com. slash disruptors to apply now. entries closing soon. >> welcome back to squawk on the street. keep an eye on some of the ev names today. rivian announcing that it's opening up sales of its delivery vans to fleets of all sizes in the united states. more than a year after ending that exclusive deal with amazon, you remember they're a shareholder. meanwhile, stifel cuts its target on tesla, citing some pricing concerns. as china's byd announced today that it's cutting its entry price for smart evs to below $10,000. that remains the challenge for this industry to create. >> thousand dollars. >> for the model. >> t was more than $10,000 back in like 1904. that is remarkable. yes. financials guys hovering around record highs, although lower today amidst a wave of headlines impacting this

sector. last week, the fed released its hypothetical scenario for the summer stress test. most analysts believe the test was actually better than last year. and that means that the biggest banks may see an easing of regulatory capital requirements, which could improve buyback and dividend potential levels. and ahead of fed chair jay powell semiannual remarks in the senate tomorrow and the house on wednesday, the central bank released its monetary policy report on friday, which reiterated that the system remains resilient, although still somewhat restrictive on balance. and then over the weekend, the acting director of the consumer financial protection bureau gutted the regulator, suspending nearly all activities, halting funding and closing the offices. that, of course, has signaled a more lax landscape for the banking industry. and this week, worth noting there are several financial services conferences, one hosted by ubs that begins today and extends to tomorrow, another by bank of america. top executives across wall street will be speaking, and we'll be covering both of those and any market moving guidance or themes that come out of them. guys.

>> what do you think the story is right now? is it about markets and trading or is it more of a rate environment story for all these names? >> yeah. markets and trading were so strong in the fourth quarter. there will definitely be a follow through on questions there. although a lot can change over the course of the quarter, it can be a little challenging to give guidance on markets and trading. specifically, i think investment banking remains a huge question mark in the minds of investors because they were coming into the year expecting this kind of gangbusters revival of the capital markets. we'd see this, you know, surge in ipo activity, surge in m&a activity. and as we're talking about that hasn't really come to fruition so far. we're only a month into the year, a month and a half into the year. but we haven't really seen some of that revival that we've been talking about. and we've seen some head fakes on that revival over the last few years where we heard, you know, we heard about the green shoots and the green shoots weren't watered. and then, you know, the election was supposed to kind of unleash these animal spirits. and it sounds like the animal spirits are still percolating under the surface and in conversations i talked

to. but so far, we haven't seen this kind of onslaught of activity, which a lot of people have been waiting for. so maybe it's still under the surface and it'll still bubble up. but i think people want updates on on what that activity is doing. >> morgan stanley's noticeably weaker than the others this morning. down 2.5%. there's a story, i think, over the weekend about what their positioning is in. speaking of investment banking. it's been towards the top right with goldman and morgan stanley, but maybe some of their market share is slipping in that regard. the other story that continues to get speculation i think we have a story on cnbc.com for pro on the recent weakness again in bank of america and what role berkshire hathaway might be playing in that. now, we already knew that they were selling down their shares. so i don't think that that's some great revelation. are they at the point of just getting out completely? i think you've been among those who have asked brian moynihan straight to his face. you know, what do you make of berkshire getting out of your stock? and i think his response, reasonably terse, was like, why

don't you ask him? >> yeah, basically berkshire can do what they want essentially. but it's a good question because that is one of the few banks that we're seeing actually an upturn in net interest income predictions for the year. and so they're they're seeing kind of this inflection change. now when rates are higher, that does put pressure on their underwater security. so if you look at market rates right now where the treasury is, that continues to put pressure on some of those securities that they'll never sell those securities. but it's something that the market does seem to pay attention to. >> green for the month, but relative to the gains of the others, it's by far the underperformer. >> yeah. very interesting. coming up, the sector's most at risk of a pullback here according to barclays. and what tariffs have to do with it. we're back in a moment. >> with real time exchange sector sword is sponsored by sector spider etfs.

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your cnbc news update i'm silvana henao. the kremlin said today that u.s. and russian relations are on the brink of collapse. moscow refused to confirm whether russian president vladimir putin spoke with president trump on sunday. president trump told reporters the two had spoken. meanwhile, the kremlin reiterated the war with ukraine would last until kyiv drops its ambitions to join nato and withdraws from four regions occupied by russian forces. lawyers began opening statements this morning in the trial of the man charged in the attempted murder of salman rushdie. hadi matar allegedly tried to kill the author in front of a lecture audience back in august 2022. the attack left him blind in one eye. rushdie is expected to testify, and the ceo of rideshare app lyft announced today the company plans to launch fully autonomous robo taxis as soon as 2026. the driverless cars will be powered

by mobileye technology. that's according to a social media post. the rollout is set to first take place in dallas, with plans to eventually expand into other cities. leslie. >> all right. savannah, thank you so much. savannah. now turning back to the broader markets, our next guest says president trump's latest tariffs. tariff announcements could amount to a low single digit drag on s&p earnings if implemented with energy, materials and discretionary stocks most at risk. venu krishna, barclays head of u.s. equity linked strategies, joins us now at post nine. thank you for being here. can you explain the work that you've done on that and what it means for those sectors that we outlined? >> sure. i think the challenge with tariffs is generally that companies don't report their exports and imports, right. so i think so what we try to do is get macro data from the bureau of economic analysis and the census bureau, and then try to percolate from there down to sectors and map it to s&p and figure out, you know, how do you

estimate the direct impact of earnings. right. so there are two legs to it. one is what if we go and put the tariffs. so for example more recently 25% on canada and mexico. and then the second part is what if they retaliate. most likely they will. right. and so the combined effect of that is around 3.7%. and for example, if in the past we said let's ignore, you know, fuel and oil related commodities, right. because our assumption was that trump doesn't want oil prices to go up. if you do that, it shaves off, let's say 50 basis points. so depending on what combination you're looking at, that number keeps changing constantly. big picture. if you take a step back and say, what if we were putting 60% on china and 10% on the rest of the world? that impact on s&p will be well over 5%. so quite substantial in the context of, you know, roughly 12% earnings growth is what we see this year. >> so then why do you think. >> the markets have been so

sanguine today? is that just an implicit expectation that these tariffs won't take effect, that the retaliatory tariffs won't matter? i mean, why do you think that the markets kind of seemingly looking through it. >> yeah. so two things. one is, you know, so far the whole debate has been is do you take him literally or do you take him seriously. and then last weekend we said we have to take him both literally and seriously. a day later, then the market realized that maybe it's just a negotiating stance. so i think that is the big debate. but overall, though, to your point, my view is that the market has been overly optimistic in pricing trump related growth policies, which is, you know, on on taxes and deregulation and less so on immigration and tariffs. so that's where we are. so ultimately what matters is which wins out. do they even out or is growth better than the constraining elements of immigration and tariffs? the market seems to think so far that it's a growth side which

has an edge. and we would agree. but i think it's a fine line. >> do you think that there are some indirect elements that equity investors should also be paying attention to, in that there are uncertainties surrounding, you know, the macro environment right now as it pertains to tariffs and geopolitics that could influence things like investment. it could influence things like the way that they are, you know, dealing with their own trading partners as corporations that could stunt their growth. or, i mean, are these things as well that equity investors should be paying attention to? >> yeah. yeah, absolutely. for example, on tariffs, just to touch on it briefly. the point is even we assume that 50% of the costs are passed over to consumers and they ate eat 50% or distributed. right. so companies have a series of options to deal with it. so we don't know where the dust finally settles. but your question on what are the other big issues? i certainly think that the ten year rates are that still remains critical. that, in turn, is a function of what the, you know, bond markets think

about deficits, about the impact of tariffs and the impacts of immigration. and as you know, the term premium on ten years has gone up quite significantly. now, why that is relevant is that if you look at long term data, then roughly around the 5% threshold, there is a very clear negative correlation between equities and where the treasury yields are. so in other words, we have been in a sweet spot thus far where treasury yields rising is not a problem because growth is good. earnings are nominal, the fed is vigilant, everything is good. but there's always a tipping point. and i think we are in the danger territory right now. and the immediate impact of that is literally felt through multiples first. and it starts with high multiple stocks, including big tech, and then it eventually percolates into the rest of the market. so i think this environment right now is one in which we are more confident on earnings, as you saw so far, like this morning, we saw in we are past the mid cycle and earnings are pretty good. but i

think where the danger lies is in the multiples. it can keep bleeding slowly and steadily like it has. big tech multiples have come down from 30 times at the beginning of the year to 28 times right now. a week ago there were 29 times. so that is a slow risk, which you need to keep an eye. >> on if. >> we're in danger territory, though, sorry, real quickly. is it okay if we or would you recommend investors sell out of equities right now or just. >> well big picture. earnings are going to x right. right. so i think more than pull off i think our view is that pay close attention to what you're paying in terms of multiples for what you're getting right, to the extent that you can make a good balance of that. that's what's going to help. >> all right. thank you venu. really appreciate your time. >> thank you. >> still to come this morning. the philadelphia eagles notching their second super bowl win in just eight years. we're going to talk to super agent drew rosenhaus about it after the break. meantime shares of edgewell personal care. that's the company behind brands like banana boat and wet ones plummeting after those results. the ceo is going to join us next hour on money movers. don't go

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up now for free at cnbc.com. slash top ten. >> no. three peat this year the eagles defeated the kansas city chiefs last night as you know earning their second super bowl win in just eight years. our next guest repped several players on the field. nfl agent drew rosenhaus joins us this morning. rosenhaus sports founder and ceo. did you just get back home, drew? >> i did, i caught a 6 a.m. flight out of new orleans. i was there all week but had to get back to my four kids today. >> what a what a week, what a weekend. i wonder what you make of the surprise element of the eagles victory being a plus versus the lopsided victory? maybe we were. i was talking to wapner earlier in the morning. kind of reminded us of super bowl eras of a different era. >> yeah, i did not personally think it was a surprise, but i was surprised that it was a blowout for those people that were rooting against the chiefs,

winning again a three peat. they must have enjoyed it for the rest of the country. it was pretty dull. so that was that element was unfortunate. in general. we've had some great games recently. i was excited for our clients in particular. not on that list is josh sweat, who made a lot of money last night. karl, he's an unrestricted free agent. i personally felt sweat number 19 should have been the mvp at two and a half sacks, six tackles, three quarterback hits, and the defense won the game for the eagles by shutting down one of the all time greats in mahomes and sending travis kelce, maybe into retirement with a resounding defeat. this was a win for the defense. really excited for the guys like jalen carter. we represent who's a great defensive tackle. darius

slay, who's been a great cornerback, finally got his first super bowl after more than a decade in the nfl. >> i'll tell you, drew, it's scott, the guy who comes out maybe with the most to gain beyond the players that you just mentioned is sirianni, the coach of the eagles. his contract was up. he wasn't one of the highest paid coaches at all $7 million a year compared to, say, andy reid making what's reported to be 20 million, sean payton next at 18. if you were repping sirianni, what would you ask for? what should he be paid as a result of this win? >> it's funny, i did see his agent on the field afterwards with the big smile on his face. >> yeah. >> i'm sure because he he's at a minimum going to have to be at the top. look, sirianni has been in two super bowls in the last three years. a narrow defeat against the chiefs in the first one, a tremendous victory last

night. they had a great season. he's got the best winning percentage of any active coach. there's no reason why he and the general manager, howie roseman, shouldn't be among the highest paid in the league, given their respective positions. sirianni deserves a lot of credit. amazingly, he was on the hot seat. some people felt going into the season, but they made all the right moves. they hired vic fangio, who did an incredible job as defensive coordinator. they brought in kellen moore as the offensive coordinator, and he's going to be the next coach of the new orleans saints, presumably today. jeff lurie, the guy is has become a great owner. obviously, this is his second super bowl win. if you're in philadelphia, which is one of the all time great sports towns, obviously they're going nuts for the rocky fans. we all know

about the rocky theme and how that's connected to the eagles. it was a really great season for this amazing sports town. >> yeah. finally drew, you can answer this one. when you think about the league going into next season or even the season after that, and sort of this expansionary mindset, they have international maybe the number of games, maybe moving the timing of the super bowl. when do you think that that expansionary mindset is going to bump up against the just the bodies, right. the athletes and the players union looking to protect those bodies? >> well, i'm not in favor of an 18 game schedule carl. i think 17 is a lot. and look, as someone that's represented nfl players for 37 years now, i've seen the difference from when i broke in the business in the late 80s to now. it is a grueling schedule. the obviously they cut back the preseason, but

they made up for it with a tough training camp with inter-squad scrimmages. i don't think they should go to 18 weeks. i certainly think that there's enough games right now as far as international expansion, i don't know, maybe going to australia is a little much. that is a long trip for guys to take who are professional athletes that have to play an nfl game. but certainly i do love the idea of the nfl playing in europe and playing in south america, mexico. it's exciting and the nfl is at an all time high. the salary cap this year is going to be north of 275 million. so i'm excited for the players. it will be over $300 million in 2026. the league is very healthy. you see the partnership with gambling. what that has done. the ratings are fantastic in general. credit to roger goodell, troy vincent, other

leaders of the nfl, the 32 owners and obviously the players for creating a great product along with their coaches. >> yeah, it's always bittersweet the morning after. we're going to miss we're going to miss it for a few months. but we'll be talking in the interim. drew, get some rest. thanks for joining us. >> the season isn't over. free agency, the draft training camp. it's just getting started for me. but thanks for having me on and have a great day, guys. >> our pleasure, as always. drew rosenhaus. by the way. drew mentioned betting, and we do have some updated betting numbers from fanduel. per our contessa brewer, more than 16.6 million bets, up almost 19% year on year, almost 70,000 bets per minute. that's up from 50,000 last year. nearly 3 million active customers during the game. >> not bad for a not a close game. after the break. telehealth provider hims and hers in hot water after their first super bowl ad. why there's controversy and what big pharma say next. don't go away.

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all of that. brandon. >> hey, scott. >> good morning. >> yeah, no shortage. >> of flashy ads last night. and if you didn't catch what we're talking about. >> take a look. >> welcome to weight loss in america. >> like and subscribe. >> a $160 billion industry that feeds on our failure. there are medications that work, but the price for profits, not patients. this is america. the system wasn't built to help us. it was built to keep us sick and stuck. >> hims goes on to promote its weight loss offerings with images of compounded glp one vials. >> basically copycat. >> generic versions. >> allowed to be. >> manufactured during a shortage. >> while the ad faced pushback from big pharma and lawmakers. >> heading into. >> the weekend, the fda was urged to look into it for false. >> advertising. >> neglecting to include warnings or. >> side. >> effects of. >> taking. >> compounded versus fda approved branded. >> ozempic and wegovy. >> the fda told cnbc it. >> takes. >> its responsibility. >> to monitor promotional materials very seriously. i did speak to legal and advertising experts over the weekend as well, and the general consensus

is that since hims doesn't. explicitly promote a. specific drug in the ad, it was fair game. now, novo still this morning responding with their ad that you just saw taking aim at hims in usa today and the new york times called check before you inject him shares up four fold in the last 12 months. but a reminder to investors the clock is ticking on this tailwind since the shortage will eventually be over. karl. >> interesting. we know hims has been volatile on on all kinds of pieces of news. brandon thank you, brandon gomez. meantime later on today on the half scott what do you got? >> we'll have more. >> on this 13 f from david tepper's appaloosa increasing his positions in china technology and decreasing in some big mega cap stocks here as well. we'll get through all of it a little bit. >> can't wait to hear what the traders have to say about that one. me too. me too. >> great. thanks for having me, guys. guys. >> we'll see you. thanks for the (vo) weight loss. for so long, i felt stuck.

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things around after two straight down weeks, after some disappointments from big tech. where can the street look for the next leg of growth? >> plus, steel stocks. >> surge as the president announces plans for new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports to the us. the latest from the white house this hour. >> the president and elon musk continue their quest to shutter federal agencies across all branches of government. the consumer financial protection bureau. the latest target. we're going to talk to one of the largest owners of government leased commercial real estate about why he says his stock has been unfairly impacted. >> interesting story there. right now though. the markets you can see the nasdaq flirting around. session highs up 1.2%. the s&p up 7/10 of 1% at this hour. and the ten year treasury yield hovering right around 4.47%. >> getting some breaking news out of the new york fed today a new look at consumer expectations for inflation, showing a mixed picture unchanged for the one year and the three year outlooks,