to the trump administration's foreign policy, whether it's the muscular defense or dismantling u.s. aid. >> yeah. and i imagine doge obviously continues to be front and center as well. how all of this ultimately affects the bond market is one of the big questions. and of course, we're on tariff lookout as well. that does it for us here at overtime. >> fast money starts now. >> live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square. this is fast money. here's what's on tap tonight. out of hikes. two major companies warning consumers cannot. >> handle any more price increases. >> and with. >> fresh tariffs on the horizon, could this price ceiling. >> hurt margins. >> and stocks in the months ahead? we'll debate that. plus, hedge. >> fund billionaire david tepper. >> taking his. >> buy everything. >> in china to a. >> whole. >> new level. >> we'll have the details of his moves and ask. >> if the traders, if there's still time. >> to follow his lead. and later. >> another record breaking day for gold. could a potential move by the treasury be part of today's move higher? super micro

super rebound ahead of earnings and a strong day for energy as an activist jumps into the oil patch. i'm melissa lee coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight tim seymour, karen finerman, dan nathan and guy adami. we start off with two dow components today, signaling they might be hitting the ceiling on prices they can charge consumers. mcdonald's seeing its worst u.s. sales decline since the pandemic, saying in its earnings release it's seeing a drop in the average check size. and the wall street journal reporting that a disney world vacation is out of reach for many american families. u.s. theme park operating income dropped 5% in the latest quarter, with attendance dropping 2% as high prices for hotels, foods and fast passes push consumers away. so it appears consumers are now uttering the famous line from popeye, i can't believe i'm going to say this. that's all i can stand and i can't stand no more. >> you don't have to. >> if that is the case, what does this mean for margins and stock prices? in a world where companies cannot pass inflation along to their customers? guy.

>> i can't. >> believe you didn't you didn't have. >> to. >> do that. >> and then. >> you could have come back with i. >> am what i. >> am and that's all that i am. >> i am olive oil. the whole thing. >> yeah. >> too much. i didn't. >> although it is hamburgers. >> you know, we. >> are getting too caught up. >> in this today. >> sorry. >> no pay tuesday for a hamburger today. so i think. >> you know. >> the. >> international comps, i. >> think gave people. >> some solace. >> i think the. >> guidance was. >> probably. >> better than people. >> were expecting. >> i think valuation at 25 times is not ridiculous. i think it's still. >> sort of best in brand. >> i think you're right. >> though. >> to say, you know. >> what they're. >> not able to pass the cost on. >> so it's. going to. >> hurt margins. but you didn't really. >> see it necessarily. >> in. >> terms of the guide. >> so for. >> me, mcdonald's. >> which is now, i. >> think at an all. >> time high right around. >> there. >> you got to stay with the name, i think. >> but what. >> do we make of all of this? i mean, finally there's pushback by the consumer. i don't know, we've heard it about low income households for a very long time, but when you sort of pair it

together with the disney stuff and you're saying that $500 for the most premium disney ticket for one day. who can afford. >> that for some? >> well. >> i mean, for some people, that's that's their trip of the year. that's the trip of a lifetime. >> and it's. >> worth it to them. i mean, if you think about mcdonald's, that demographic is not even totally a. >> disney demographic, frankly. >> and if you think about what mcdonald's told you is that they actually have lower check sizes, but they have more guests, that to me means their value meal is working. so the stock was rewarded. >> let's just be. >> clear. >> about this. >> everything we're talking about is maybe a. tell on where. >> we could be going. >> although that low. >> income consumer was it. >> was about. >> a. >> year. >> and a half that we were worried about ago, that that low income. >> consumer was. >> front and center. >> but again. >> down 1.4. >> on us comps was worse than expected. they're making up with it. >> they're going to they're going. >> to launch. >> 2200 new restaurants. >> this year. and between some. >> that are closing, but it'll net out to about 1800 new locations. >> i mean, this is a growth company. it's a growth company around the world. >> they've reset up how they do their business with their franchisees. >> the model works. >> i think you're buying any weakness in mcdonald's, and you might even be buying it here.

>> i haven't looked at mcdonald's. >> a long time because i always thought it was too expensive, but the more. >> i. >> looked at this, i agree that this is not crazy here. it really isn't. >> and if you think about, you. >> know, the. >> business model. >> with the franchise and. >> obviously it's a different business model. the margins are huge, but it's not so crazy to your point about though, this this low end consumer, to. >> the extent. >> that they're still. >> employed. >> i think that they're still going to go. >> and if the if. >> the mcdonald's of the world or the or the disney's of the world can find a way to just be a little more efficient and not change price, just hold firm on price, maybe deliver something else to the consumer that isn't so expensive for, i mean, something that's cheap. >> to. >> mcdonald's or cheap to disney to do that. i think this game can kind of go on a little bit longer. >> yeah, i mean, they're talking about adding menu items like snack wraps and keeping up with the value part of the menu. beverages are going to be a big thing because it's high margin to mcdonald's, and it's a small add on for consumer. >> so we've. >> seen starbucks. >> actually cut. >> their menu. >> right. >> so and this is a company that's been having.

>> a hard time. >> it's not too different than this. >> conversation we're having. >> it just. >> happened probably a year or two earlier. but i'd broaden it out a little bit. i while we're on drinks constellation. look at this thing. >> it's making four year lows. >> we've seen what's going on there. so we know beer. we know spirits is down a lot. >> year over year. >> it's been going down for the last couple of years. but then you could look. >> at iphones. they're not growing here in the us. and you. >> know that is. >> a you. >> tell me is it a staple. is it a discretionary item. tesla's are not growing anymore right here in the us. so is that discretionary. is it. >> a staple. >> so i think you can go all up and down. you know what i mean. the consumer spectrum here. and you see that there are plenty of consumer products that are slowing down. and then throw. tariffs and trade wars and throw, you know, specifically on some of these, you know, steel and aluminum, those sorts of things. i mean, i think folks should be ready for prices to go back up if we are kind of going to be in a trade war with some of our biggest trading partners and then also dial it up with china. >> they got in front of the safety issue. >> they did. >> a great job there. i mean, within. >> a couple of.

>> days. >> they. >> seem to have their arms. >> around. it and. >> they. were rewarded margins improving. good for them. i think it speaks. >> to, as. >> tim said, maybe, >> maybe. >> obviously prices are higher, but. >> you're offsetting. >> it by. >> the number of people. >> that. >> are visiting their stores. there'd be a 50,000 store restaurants by the end. >> of 2027. >> it's a margin story, i think. >> and it is still. >> a growth story. so i. >> don't think at 25 times it's stretched. and i think the environment that we find ourselves in, companies like mcdonald's. and walmart for that matter, they win. >> and it just it seems like they can sweat out the competition. i mean, if you think about it, they're winning this value war. >> when. >> they come out. >> with a value meal, which they came out a year ago. >> people are like, oh, it's not. >> going to be four months. >> like they said. >> it's probably going. >> to be like five times that. >> so here we are. >> at least three times. >> past the. >> duration of what it. >> was supposed to be. and if you're the. >> competition. you're very. >> worried because. >> they are picking up more guests, they are taking. >> market share. >> and they're opening more stores. >> so it's 25. >> times, as. >> everybody said. >> that's pretty. >> much in line. does the. >> stock deserve to be at a premium? i don't. >> know.

>> but again. >> given what's going. >> on out there, i. >> think we. >> kind of i think. >> mcdonald's has. >> faced the abyss. >> on the consumer. i think that that part of the story. was when. >> mcdonald's was around 240, and we were worried about margins, and margins are. >> fine, right. >> so putting the mcdonald's story aside and just dealing with disney for just a moment, if we are to agree that they are not necessarily the same demographic. and the argument about disney is that they were they were raising their prices. raising, raising, raising and making consumers pay for things that were previously free. right services, fast pass all these things to increase their margins. are we at a point now and is this a clue for this cohort? maybe this is middle income households that they're pushing back because don't you. you said trip of a lifetime. disney doesn't want you to go to disney world once. they don't want you to go back again and again. but if you're going to pay up the wazoo, i can't believe i said that either. >> big night. >> for you. >> i know it's like wait to hear left and right then. then they're going to lose the customer later on. >> well. >> is that the trip of a. >> lifetime or do they never take that trip. >> of a lifetime to disney? >> it might. >> be they'd rather. >> have that. yeah, right. >> and having taken. >> four children to disney once, i can tell you i will never.

>> i would. >> for other reasons though. >> a lot of reasons. >> yeah. >> so no for disney it's sort of a different value. >> proposition in terms of i think that deal of a lifetime is the thing. but also there are i mean, disney cruises as well. they can't they can't sell enough. >> of them. >> there is. >> still a huge we. >> know there. >> we checked out a disney. cruise we. did together. >> the. new treasure ship. >> we didn't actually go on a cruise, just to be clear, in case we. >> wanted to. you ladies. >> didn't want to go. >> so well. there is a flip side. >> to this too. like you just mentioned, cruises. look at royal caribbean. if they can pull up a ten year chart of this thing, it's trading at all time highs. >> it look. >> like they. >> just cured cancer or. >> something like that. >> and you know, i feel like. >> the same. >> thing with. >> the other one. >> it's a carnival. is the other one. the value proposition for cruise of that nature is much different from, you know, $500 for the most expensive. >> and then. >> airlines, tims airlines. i mean they've gone parabolic united and delta. maybe they're operating better. but again we've seen parts of this kind of consumer discretionary trade act very well. on the flip side. >> all right. all right. meantime president trump expected to announce blanket 25%

tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports potentially this hour. our eamon javers has been in washington following it all day. and he joins us now with the very latest eamon. >> melissa potentially in the next 20 minutes. we'll see. we're expecting the president to bring the white house pool reporters into the oval office for an event signing some executive orders. we expect that among the things that he'll do there is sign these new tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminum imports into the united states, he will sign those tariffs at this event. but what we're not expecting now is this idea of reciprocal tariffs. that's something that we're told the president might do at a separate time or a separate day. we initially thought all this might be coming today. not the case. these two things are moving on separate tracks. so watch for a separate announcement later on in the week. the other thing that we're tracking here is the foreign corrupt practices act, one of the executive orders that the president is about to sign, i am told, is related to the foreign corrupt practices act.

and what what it's going to do is pause enforcement of that law. now, remember, that's the law that says that american companies can't bribe foreign government officials in their pursuit of business. trump wants to pause the enforcement of that. while the new department of justice passes new enforcement guidelines to american companies, telling them what it's going to enforce and what it's not going to enforce under that anti-bribery statute, that's going to be controversial. melissa, as soon as the president signs it, you're going to see a lot of people out there saying, look, this is opening the doors to wanton corruption around the world by american companies. you're going to see other people, though, who say, hey, wait a second. this law has held back american companies for years. they haven't been able to compete on a level playing field with their global counterparts, because america has a higher standard when it comes to this anti-corruption effort than other countries do necessarily. and so they're going to say that's a win for big business. business has chafed under the foreign corrupt practices act in

the past. we'll see what the exact language here is, melissa. but that's one to watch as well. >> so other kids are doing it. so we should be able to do it too. i mean, that's that seems like sort of an odd argument. >> that's the argument. >> yeah eamon thank you eamon javers you bet. >> yeah i don't know what. >> that means. >> i mean the standard for corruption should be no corruption. there shouldn't be levels. >> of corruption. >> that are. >> acceptable a little bit corrupt. >> but that's. >> very corrupt. >> but you know. >> you know maybe. you know, you just bring a whole new set of rules and enforce it in a different way. i have no idea. but it sounds like it sounds somewhat problematic to me just on the surface. >> but maybe the definition of what a bribe is in question in terms of i forget it, we're going to leave this topic. i'm not going to try and justify this. for more on what trump's latest terrorist threat could mean for markets and how to navigate them, let's bring in hamilton lane co ceo eric hirsch. eric, great to have you with us. >> well so good to. >> be back. >> how do you view tariffs when it comes to the impact on companies. something that you look through or something that

you have to factor in? >> well i think the big question. >> is. >> are tariffs today actually tariffs or are they. >> negotiating tactics? >> i think the reason that the stock market. >> is sort of ignoring them generally. >> as across the market. >> obviously some. >> company specific. exceptions is that right now i think the market is saying until proven. >> otherwise. >> we view these as a negotiating tactic. we don't view these as actually. permanent tariffs. >> if that. >> proves to be wrong, then i think we're going to see a significant market correction. >> as a result of that. >> what is significant? >> well, i think you're going to see it by sector, but i think this is going to be a public market where. >> we're going to be sort of. >> operating, kind of driving. >> in the rear view mirror. >> i think as in past administrations, you've sort of seen announcements or people have thought announcements were coming and the market has reacted in advance. i think with this administration, it's much more likely that you're going to have to sort of see people prove it to me before we actually price all of that in. and so more likely we could see announcements come market really

kind of shaking it off and then waking up in the future and all of a sudden saying, oh, this is real. this is happening. this is now and this is more material. and then you start to see market corrections. you know. >> back in 2018 we saw some exclusions to chinese tariffs. apple in particular with the iphone. do you expect to see those sorts of exclusions, especially when you think about some of our largest multinationals. the tech companies ceos have kind of cozied up to the administration, but. also some like tim cook and elon musk have also cozied. up to president xi. so it's kind of an interesting situation. i'm just curious how you kind of fall out on that. >> i think we're going to see exceptions in some cases, just given what the supply chain globally looks like. even if you look at steel, there are sort of aspects of very technically manufactured steel that. >> are. >> only available at a certain suppliers. and those suppliers today are not in the united states. and so that is either there's going to be an exception or there's going to be a real slowdown in certain sectors because of an inability to get

certain products. i think you're certainly seeing the administration want to onshore in a significant way, and that's going to happen. but as we all know, that isn't going to happen overnight. and so either we're going to suffer through some product shortfalls, some significant inflation in certain sectors, or we're going to have to see some exceptions and let this sort of build out over time until you can kind of reshore certain manufacturing back here in the us. eric. >> it's tim. >> so i'm just trying to kind of cut through to it seems like and i'm. >> looking at your note, you say we could have a 2020 moment for markets. >> and there's a. >> supply chain at. >> least dynamic. that could lead us to some of those places. is this really. >> ultimately again, the cloud of tariffs being poor policy leading. >> to. >> economic fallout leading to a growth scare for markets? i'm just trying to really just, you know, connect the dots here. >> i think if we sit back here and we say, okay, everything that has been discussed, threatened becomes reality. i

think the inflationary impact is significant. i think some supply demand imbalances are also significant. and so i think you would see a significant market correction. but i think today it seems unlikely based on historical information, the posture of the administration today, the reaction to other countries and other sectors, that it just doesn't seem today that all of these are going to go into full effect as currently advertised. again, i go back to my earlier statement. this feels more like effective negotiating tactics, but negotiating tactics nonetheless. >> you like us manufacturers, eric under under all scenarios, whether there are tariffs, whether there are no tariffs, is it simply a reshoring play? >> i see i see that and i see that both in the public sector and frankly, the private sector, if you look at what's happening in our industry, the private sector, you're seeing a real focus right now on bringing jobs back, putting significant capital into domestic manufacturing facilities,

adjusting domestic supply chain and thinking about where you are sourcing materials and beginning to alter that. but again, not all of that is possible overnight. it's not possible instantaneously. and so i think this is a short term pain potential for some longer term gain. but as an investor, pricing that through figuring out when you're going to lean in when you're not, i think is a huge problem. it's one of the big reasons why coming out of the gate, people had said, well, once the election is over, we're going to see a real uptick in m&a volume, and we've actually seen the exact opposite. m&a volume year over year coming down is right now down for the calendar year. and i think because a lot of uncertainty. so we're not seeing this huge robust ipo market. we're not seeing a lot of m&a activity. and that's because i think people are still in very much of a wait and see mode. >> eric, great to speak with you. thanks. >> a pleasure. thank you. >> eric hirsch, manufacturers. yes. you love that. >> i do, except i do think. >> this is potentially extremely

inflationary. right. we talk about this 2020 supply. chain logistic issue. if you're a manufacturer and. you import steel what do you do now? do you wait. do you see what happens? do you have some already. do you preorder? remember we got into that situation 2020, in a huge way, maybe a little smaller, but it seems inflationary to me. >> all right. meantime, a group led by elon musk is making a move more than $97 billion offer for control of openai, potentially complicating sam altman's plans to make it a for profit company. steve kovacs got the details. steve. >> hey there melissa. >> yeah, this was a. >> unsolicited offer coming from musk and these financial backers that you just mentioned. >> the number. >> here is $97.4 billion. >> now. >> this is just for the nonprofit parent of openai. this is not the same for profit entity or the for profit. rather, that's being transitioned to a for profit entity. and by the way, this is coming from the same lawyer behind musk's lawsuit. against openai, in which he is trying to block them from turning into that. and you said this could

complicate the deal to turn into a for profit company. well, sam altman, the ceo, is not buying this. he tweeted as a response. he declined the offer, but he did offer to buy twitter for a 10th of what they're offering for openai 9.74 billion. as a reminder. elon musk bought twitter for $44 billion, so that would be quite a discount there. musk responded in a tweet called altman a swindler. that's all we got for now. so some very interesting back and forth there between these two billionaires. in the meantime, the wall street journal also showing some of these backers. they include a lot of people around elon musk's orbit. that means valor equity partners, the venture capital firm. eight vc, ari emanuel of endeavor and x i that is elon musk's startup for artificial intelligence. that is part of that lawsuit. now, speaking of the lawsuit, guys, last week, the judge in the lawsuit, they had their first hearing. she said she was unlikely to block openai's transition to a for profit company. this thing is going to go to trial. that could

in part explain why we got this offer today. and in the meantime, there's more money just coming at openai. our kate rooney and david faber have been reporting the last couple of days that openai is in the process of raising money from softbank at a 300 or $1 billion or more valuation. that's up from the current valuation of $157 billion. now, the question also comes what does musk gain by just owning this nonprofit arm? part of it could be a response to what we learned in court last week, and take some control over openai's technology. but at the same time, it sounds like sam altman at least. and most likely the board has no appetite for this kind of offer, and it's just going to have to play out in court. melissa. >> all right, steve, thank you. thanks. steve kovach. dan, what do you make of this? >> well. >> i mean, go back to that stargate announcement, right when sam altman got in there. he did a little end around on elon. he was up there with larry ellison and masa son. i mean, i just can't imagine how this is not going to end in tears. we've got elon really close to the president for all of these guys. i mean, i mean that sincerely.

so think about elon. think about sam altman, think about satya nadella, think about sundar. think about mark zuckerberg. think about all the way these guys are competing as it relates to different models, different prerogatives, different data. you know, like, you know, infrastructure and that sort of stuff. i just don't know. they all hate each other. that's the other thing. like none of them like each other and they're all competing. >> and so. >> throw jeff bezos in there too. well you look at me like i. >> mean. >> literally i don't i understand what you're saying, but i don't i don't see how mark zuckerberg ends up in tears. i feel like meta. >> well they. >> all. >> have. >> a lot. okay, so tiktok. >> gets bought by elon. >> or tiktok. >> gets bought by microsoft. >> said he's not interested in tiktok. >> well, microsoft. >> how does that end up for mark zuckerberg? i mean, my point is, is like there's so many different ways. this is like they're all going to be. >> a technical question. also here just on this headline is. >> how much of the for profit company does. >> the nonprofit company hold? >> i mean, it seems to me. >> this. >> is the tactic, and. >> i don't really totally. understand how that works. does anybody know? >> i don't understand. >> i don't. understand if there's any obligation for them

to sell at all. i don't understand the mechanism to. >> get that. >> to make it. >> it's not like, you know, there's shares out there and. right, right. i don't i don't get how. >> but raising. >> the awareness that the for profit. business is inherently. >> evil is. >> part of what. >> these headlines are all about. >> and again, i you. >> know. i'm not. >> commenting on that. >> in other words, i don't. >> necessarily know that that is true, but that is part of what this. >> offer is trying to play on. >> all right. coming up all in on the china trade, hedge fund billionaire david tepper increasing his big bet on china's policymakers in beijing weigh even more stimulus measures. the names and etfs he's doubling down on next. and the robo rideshare rollout mobilized, surging as lyft makes big plans in the driverless tech space. how the two are coming together and the competition from uber that could be hiding in their blind spot. don't go inmy name's dan and i live here anywhin san antonio, texas. i ran my own hvac business and now i'm retired. i'm not good being retired. i'm a pain in the neck. i like to be able to have a purpose.

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dave's been very excited about saving big with the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. five years? -five years. and he's not alone. -high five. it's five years of reliable gig speed internet. five years of advanced securit. five years of a great rate that won't change. it's back. but only for a limited time. high five. five years? -nope. comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. powering five years of savings. powering possibilities. comcast business. >> welcome back to fast money. chinese e-commerce stocks and the etfs that track them popping. today on news that billionaire hedge fund manager david tepper is continuing to pile money into china, the appaloosa founder doubling down in the fourth quarter, according to new 13 f filings. remember, he told squawk box back in september that he was buying

everything related to china. the filing also revealing tepper trimmed positions in mega-cap tech names including amazon, meta and oracle. tim, what do you make of this move? >> well. >> it's all relative right to. >> your positioning when you hear his. >> he increased his position in jd by 43%. it's like okay, you know, but when you see that alibaba is 15.6% of his portfolio and this is a massive portfolio, that's impressive. as someone that thinks alibaba is going significantly higher myself and is not necessarily tethered to what's going on on tariff news, i look, i love this call. david tepper certainly has not been afraid to put his money where his mouth is and be very concentrated and have it pay off for him. he's doing that here. >> b and tube. >> it is the. >> b in tube. you know, it's funny. >> because i. >> sort of went back and forth. >> between boeing and baba. right now it. looks like i made the right choice. but i'll say this. >> i'm. with tim and the big short guys. >> thought baba was. >> probably 40% too cheap. i think they're going to wind up being right. and when david tepper said that in september, october 2nd was the balls high

for. >> all of those. >> names, you. >> heard me. >> they round tripped, but now they're back. >> on the horse. >> and this time i don't think it's stopping at 118. >> soccer balls. >> oh, yeah. >> okay. >> well, i think. >> he famously has on his desk. yeah, yeah. anyway. >> no, i'm long. as well. >> you know. >> i. >> agree with both. they said when. >> david tepper makes. >> a huge call. >> he's very good and not very. often that. >> he makes a huge call like that interesting to me. the stock continued to go lower. >> this is. >> a. filing that. >> ends as. >> of december 31st. >> right. so the stock went down from 85 to 80 and wouldn't be shocked if he added some more. i mean, if he loved it at whatever price, he loved it at 80in the bottom. so i. >> don't know. i like it. >> i think it's i mean, it's. still ridiculously cheap, even. >> with all of. >> the, you know, warnings about it being a big chinese company. >> yeah. >> it's interesting, though, that their consumer facing names. right. so you talk about this consumer that's had a difficult time in china. and then i look at a wynn resorts and they get half their sales

from macao. and that thing went up the way all those other things did in september in a straight line. and now it's down about 27% from there. and so this has nothing to do with stock picking. it's just kind of interesting that you would think that that would have had some of the same sort of tailwinds that some of these consumer internet names have, and it just hasn't. so i think there's going to be winners and losers. and the ones that just got too cheap, like an alibaba. and you guys have been talking about it for months and months. it just thinks that we're kind of like coiled springs. it wasn't going to take a lot to get them going. >> there's a lot more fast money to come. here's us coming up next. >> revving up the robo taxis, uber and lyft racing to get driverless rideshares on the road. and the stocks behind the tech are fueling up on the plans. the names that could be steering your next ride ahead, plus gold shining to fresh record highs as one of president trump's new hires looks to revalue the yellow metal. how it could boost the treasury balance sheet. you're watching fast money live from the nasdaq market site in times square.

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au owwwww bientot au revoir mon amour. a bientot (♪♪) (in perfect french) au revoir mon amour. a bientot now search with ai assistant with the hotels.com app >> welcome to. >> cnbc's crypto world. >> cnbc's daily digital show has trading updates, the latest headlines, a global perspective and high profile interviews. scan to watch cnbc's crypto world, sponsored by crypto.com. >> welcome back to fast money. lyft's robotaxi plans are kicking into high gear. the company announcing a partnership with mobileye to bring robotaxis to dallas, texas, as soon as

next year. lyft gaining more than 6% while mobileye surged nearly 12%. rideshare rival uber, who's partnering partnering with google's waymo and robotaxis, rising 5% in sympathy. i mean, it's quite a mobileye reported disappointing guidance got smashed and here we are up 12% today. >> yeah. >> on wednesday, if i'm not mistaken, uber sold off significantly. and tim seymour, on his final trade, said the sell off is overdone. uber that was 64.5 65. look at it now and he's spot on now you have other people. listen this was at the end of last year i think 2 or 3 different banks put this on their conviction. buy list or best trade ideas when it was trading around 60 bucks. i agree and i think there's more room to the upside. now you have the ackman seal of approval. i think there's more to go. >> i find it interesting as. >> an. >> alphabet holder that waymo has. >> no place in the conversation at all, despite. having a real business. and but i think uber. >> is really. >> interesting here. i mean i

own a tiny bit, which is worse than owning none, actually, because you feel like, oh, you're close, but you really blew it. good for you guys. nice. >> well. >> they didn't hurt. >> you know, it's not like i was swinging for the fences on. >> that one. i mean, i. >> think lyft is going to report tomorrow is. >> actually going to have a. >> really solid quarter. >> i think they're going. to talk about everything from bookings being, you know, increasing and getting back to a level that they're actually excited about taking back some market share. they're going to talk about partnerships, including doordash partnership and the positive price effect. so i think those are things for a company that has really very little priced into it, especially with a management team that is relatively new, taking over for a management team that i think had zero credibility and therefore i see upside. >> what's interesting about this tie up is that it really it sort of opens the door on how exactly there is a place for the likes of an uber or lyft in the world of driverless taxis, because in this deal, lyft has the platform like an uber connects the consumer to the driver. but the technology is provided by mobileye and the fleet, which was a question of who owns the fleet. the fleet is going to be

owned by a subsidiary which owns a lot of. they just do fleet management. >> no one wants. >> to. >> own the fleets. i mean, this is going to be a big disaster for all these companies who have big plans here. and, you know, with lyft, i know why you put it as the l in your bicep last year is. >> that. >> it's got a $5.5 billion enterprise value. you know what i mean? like 2 billion of that is in cash, right. and so you think about this name. if anyone has designs on robo taxis and doing this stuff, you just kind of load this thing up and you try to figure out how to implement it. but i think this is going to be a huge issue for tesla's robotaxi. who the heck wants hundreds of thousands of these things? you know, actually own them and put them on their balance sheet, that sort of thing. so i think you take the over on all these things. i love waymo. i think if waymo can figure it out with uber, i think it's going to be a pretty much a winner take all for the first ones that get mass deployment. >> coming up, sitting on a gold mine, another fresh record high for the precious metal as a potential move out of the treasury points to an even more gains in gold. the change that can boost the balance sheet and keep the safe haven surging. the

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nasdaq leading the charge up nearly 1%. shares of meta continuing its record run, hitting another fresh all time high, notching its 16th straight day of gains, extending its longest winning streak on record. the stock is up more than 17% in that time. shares of monday.com surging more than 26%. the cloud company beating eps and revenue estimates, as well as coming in above expectations for the full year outlook. take-two interactive hitting a fresh all time high. the video game maker updating timing for some of its new releases, including grand theft auto six, which they say will come out this fall, and some after hours action. vertex on the move after missing on earnings expectations but beating revenue estimates and latest semi surging after reporting q1 guidance above expectations. well, it appears the trump administration is in brainstorm mode when it comes to containing the massive budget deficit on the table. revaluing the country's gold reserves and creating 50 to 100 year bonds. investor peter boockvar tackling the viability of these ideas in

a note today, peter. cnbc contributor joins us now. he's the bleakley financial group chief investment officer. peter, great to have you with us. >> hi, melissa. >> explain to us the mechanics of marking to market the gold reserves and what that does for treasury. >> so in 1934, the fed. >> transferred their gold holdings to the treasury and. >> in return got this. >> gold certificate. >> in 1973. that gold. >> which totals about. >> 260,000,000oz, or 8100 ish tons, was. >> valued at $42. >> so on the books of the treasury. right now, the gold is worth about $10 billion. but in reality, with gold at around 2900, those holdings actually totaled north of 800 billion. so i'm hearing chatter and the financial. times over the weekend. >> in an. >> editorial talked about the possibility that the. >> treasury. >> in a relationship with the fed in terms of gold

certificates or maybe a repo or other ways of basically injecting the difference between the current mark of 10 billion. i'm sorry, the. >> current gold. >> mark really of 10 billion. and what would be a new mark at 800 plus billion. and that cash would get injected to the treasury general account. >> so why does gold go higher in that scenario? >> well. >> it at. least maybe. >> would put a floor. >> under the. >> price of gold. >> now what would. >> push it higher? >> we'll have to see. i think there's still other factors that have been in place over the last couple of years, like a voracious central bank buying and gold becoming a really important sort of clearing of reserve transactions. china, for example, having $1 trillion of surplus. well, they're less and less recycling that in us treasuries and they're doing it in gold. i think those trends continue on, but maybe just putting a floor underneath and really just telling people about the importance of gold in this

world financial system that we're currently in right now. >> i think that's exactly the point. i mean, it's not necessarily that it's bullish for gold, but it just puts a spotlight on what gold means and the importance of it. and i think the bear case, people say, well that will allow them to sell it. but i don't think that's really what's going on at all. i mean, if they were to sell it today, they would reap the mark to market gains. so it's not really where it's valued at. it's just putting a spotlight on the importance. can you speak to that? >> i have no. >> interest in selling gold. this is just a sort of a on one hand the criticism. criticism can be it's an accounting gimmick. it's a one time thing. it's a one time injection of cash. but i think the administration is looking at a variety of different things to deal with the excessive debts and deficits we have. i mean, scott besson, when he said he's focused on the long end, he was not kidding. he's looking at many different things to keep the ten year sort of in check and not to see a retest of five. because if you blow through that, you're talking five and a

half and six. he wants no part of that. so they're looking at a lot of different ways of trying to avoid it. >> and speaking of long end, i mean in your note, you're talking about an even longer end 50 or 100 year bond. that idea was floated in the first trump administration. never happened. what are you hearing now in terms of existing bond holders, treasury holders being able to swap out for a longer a theoretical, longer term bond? >> yeah. so this would not be sort of your standard treasury issuance. let's sell 50 to 100 year bonds because we know the liquidity there as seen with the 20 year is pretty thin. this is something again trying to be creative on their part about swapping or trying to convince foreign holders of treasuries to swap some of these holdings for 50 or 100 year treasuries, that they would have limited ability to sell. the fed would then

create a potential facility, allowing them to pledge that if they wanted to repo it. but the financial times article talked about this and sort of strong arming some of our foreign friends and their holdings to take this 50 to 100 year paper. again, another brainstorming exercise, trying to turn out our debt and even make it zero coupons so they don't have to pay an interest expense on it. of some of the things in dealing with the financial situation that we're currently in right now. >> peter, we got to let you go. thank you so much for joining us. appreciate it. peter. really fascinating. what do you make of it though? >> i think these are. >> great things. >> i really do. i think the united states should be pushing. influence around the world and getting something back. and it's similar to even, you know, there's an element. you know, we all know that tariffs aren't great in terms of if you look at history in terms of their economic impact, but using them. >> as a. >> stick anyway, this is about reasserting the influence that the united states has and doing something with it. while gold is moving higher, copper is moving

higher. and if you look across the metals space and you look across even the commodity space, they're all going higher. so if the dollar has peaked in the short term and unrelated but somewhat related to the conversation we just had, if rates have peaked, i think you know, everything attached to this, including gold, is going to go higher. i like the copper trade, copper miners, if you look at freeport, if you look at southern copper, these are names that are nowhere near 52 week highs, in fact, well off their highs. i think they look interesting. >> yeah. it's interesting i mean the spotlight now is on gold for the right reasons. and you know tim had talked about this over the weekend. chinese are giving their insurance companies the green light to buy gold to invest in gold, which is just one more, just one more of many reasons to think this trade is far from over. >> coming up, a chip check on two big semi moves. smi surging as investors gear up for earnings tomorrow while nvidia extends its recovery. the trade on both the names next and a bp bump shares of the energy giant jumping nearly 7% as one activist investor pumps up its stake. the changes they could be looking for. and the shakeup could restore the stock to its glory days. fast money is back

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server maker jumping almost 16 excuse me, 18% today ahead of a key earnings report tomorrow. investors hoping to get more clarity on super micro's compliance plan to avoid getting delisted by the nasdaq. shares now up nearly 60% in the last week, but they are still down more than 20% since hindenburg research first raised red flags over its accounting practices back in august, you had been in that name back. >> briefly in and out. well. >> so if. >> they are able to maintain or delay being kicked off the nasdaq, which maybe they'll be able to do, it is worth noting that there's a 16% short interest. so i don't know what happens here, but i wouldn't be long. >> yeah. >> two times normal volume today. a lot of people are getting squeezed. there's going to be there will be another place to reenter a short. and it probably comes in the form of like 70 ish dollars. but that's light years from where we're trading right now. so buyer beware. >> all right, meantime, speaking of meme kind of stocks, gamestop

leaping almost 10% on speculation. the company is plotting a new strategy around crypto. ceo ryan cohen posting a photo to x over the weekend with michael saylor, chairman of microstrategy, which has recently rebranded as just strategy. no additional context given in the ex post strategy shares also finishing the day higher. so is a picture worth a thousand words or a few percentage points? well. >> i mean, what saylor is probably doing is trying to get them to convert part of their balance sheet, right, to do that. and you tell me, is it going to start to trade at a multiple relative to the crypto that they own on their balance sheet? i mean, that's been the microstrategy sort of thing. so you keep selling, you know, shares or debt in which to buy it. i just don't think that's going to end particularly well for someone who doesn't have, like, a michael saylor and that sort of commitment to it. the last thing i'll just say on this is like, look at roku, look at a firm, look at carvana. there's a lot of meme stocks like picking up their heads again here. so again, it just seems like like a squeezy sort of market right now. >> yeah. >> we've we've heard of multiple. >> different strategies at gamestop. >> and it's always a kind of a

half baked conversation. i mean, this may be different and clearly attaching crypto to anything. and michael saylor might be their best shot. >> it reminds me of when everything was just sort of, you know, long island blockchain kind of thing instead of long island iced tea or whatever it was. yeah, just attach the name, attach whatever, and it goes. >> up and it works. i mean, but you know, again, microstrategy strategy now i think has 475,000 bitcoin on their balance sheet. average price is about 65,000. as long as the price keeps going up they can buy in perpetuity. the problem of course, is if they continue to buy and the price starts going lower, you get to an equilibrium around 75,000 potentially. and then things start to get really interesting really quick. i'm not saying it's going to happen, but that's really what you have to watch for. higher average price, lower bitcoin price. >> coming up. shares of bp jumping as one activist investor gets involved, the stake they built and the changes that could be coming for this energy giant that is next. and throughout february we are celebrating black heritage. here's the ceo of eaton corp.

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got the details. eamon. >> hey there melissa. well president trump is in the oval office right now. he's brought reporters in and he's taken a number of actions, including signing those new tariffs into action that we'd expected 25% on aluminum and steel coming into the united states. the president saying to reporters that there will be no exemptions to those tariffs, raising the possibility of maybe of an australian exemption. we'll have to try to get some more clarity on what that means. the president also saying that he's looking at additional tariffs on cars, chips and pharmaceuticals. the president saying he's going to hold off on those reciprocal tariffs that we talked about earlier in terms of tariffs on countries that impose tariffs on the us that he said he's going to do over the next two days. so

those are still to come. the 25% on steel and aluminum is now in effect. a couple of things on the corruption front right. we talked about this foreign corrupt practices act. that's the anti-bribery statute. the president has now signed an executive order in which he's ordering a pause in enforcement of the anti-bribery statute. he wants the department of justice to take a look at that and figure out new guidance to companies of what they can do under that law in terms of interacting with foreign government officials. remember, the law prevents american companies from bribing government officials overseas. the business community has complained about that over the years, saying that that's unduly restrictive to them. the enforcement of it is sometimes unfair. trump now wants a pause on that. also on the corruption issue. he's just issued a pardon to rod blagojevich, the former democratic illinois governor, rod blagojevich, back in 2008, was convicted and served jail time for his role in an effort to, in effect, sell a u.s.

senate seat. when barack obama became president, his senate seat was available. blagojevich's actions to corruptly try to take advantage of that opening led to his conviction. he's now been pardoned here today by donald trump. back over to you. >> all right eamon thank you, eamon javers. meantime shares of bp surging almost 7% on reports activist investor elliott is building a stake in the oil giant. elliott and bp not commenting on these reports. the reports on bp helping the energy sector etf up 2% today. bp, we should note a real laggard in terms of performance versus peers, exxon as well as chevron here. what do you think? >> i think bp is probably the cheapest integrated by far. i think. >> the capital. >> structure, the analyst community will point out that they should be issuing more debt and not buying back stock, that they're, you know, they have a cash flow machine on the upstream side of their business and that they should actually take advantage. >> of that. >> the high end bp, the stock i think was 18 years ago, and it's been a complete underperformer ever since. a lot of room to run, but xle at 90 bucks to me is still cheap here. >> up next final trades.

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from the sap here. i think it's doing fine here. i think lyft is going to participate. >> in the robo. taxi revolution. >> i don't need tim infiltrating my tube. happy birthday, jim cramer from your fast. >> money. >> and ccj mel. >> all right. thanks for watching fast mad money with jim cramer. happy birthday. starts now. >> my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level. >> the playing field. >> for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. >> welcome to cramerica. >> other people make friends. >> i'm just trying to. >> make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain and educate, but i want to teach you and explain. and tonight, i'm doing it. >> so call me at one 800. >> 743 cnbc or tweet. >> me jimcramer. >> we too often. >> invest for the day. i always hear