still up by 6% after initially dipping freshworks up by 11. and of course our viewers heard from them first before the analyst calls, which kick off in just a few seconds. >> yeah we got key inflation data including cpi tomorrow as well. so that's going to be one to watch. tight trading range for the major averages. mixed picture that does it for us here at over time. >> fast money starts now. >> live from. >> the. nasdaq marketsite in the heart of. >> new york city's. times square. this is fast money. here's what's on tap tonight. a tesla tumble shares trading at nearly three month lows. is there more downside to come or will elon musk get shares revve. >> up again? and three weeks into a second term, we are getting a clearer picture of trump's economic policies. while early optimism prove. >> justified. >> or is there a reckoning on its way? plus, digging in on earnings from lyft and supermicro. apple reportedly partners up to bring its ai to china, and we go off the charts to find the next move in. the energy trade for one of our traders sees that space going. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq on the desk tonight, tim

seymour, dan nathan, guy adami and katie stockton, founder and managing partner of fairlead strategies. welcome, katie. and we start off with tesla in turmoil, the ev stock plunging more than 6% today, hitting its. lowest level since mid-november and locking in a five day losing streak. the stock has lost a third of its value since setting a record in december, retracing more than half its post-election rally. the latest round of losses comes amid a slew of potential distractions for ceo elon musk heading up doge. here he is, in fact, today in the oval office with the president as well as his son. then there's his $97 billion bid for control of openai and of course, his nonstop posting on x. on top of that, there's concern over the slowdown in tesla's core business, the company seeing sales in france, germany and china plummet to start the year. bulls seem to think the push into self-driving will be the next positive catalyst for the stock. but will that be enough to give tesla the edge over the competition? what are we looking at here when we take a look at this slide? >> dan i. >> didn't look at the slide.

>> but that's a cute kid over there. >> i got to. >> be honest with you. you know. >> listen. >> on the last. >> call about a week and a half ago, i mean, elon really didn't spend a lot of time talking about like, the car sales. >> and what's going on in europe. and, you know. >> we're down here in the us also. and it doesn't look like they're. >> going to. >> make their deliveries this year. >> i know. >> it sounds really early. just to kind of extrapolate what they did in january. but we know. >> they're. >> in a price war. we know that. there's threats. >> about tariffs. >> we know. >> that, you know, these. >> ev credits could. >> go away. >> we know. >> that price. >> war that's been going. >> on for three years is not abating anytime soon. but what he. >> spent. >> a lot of. >> time talking about is robots and robotaxis and how that is going to inflate the price of this stock. and so. >> when. >> i think about what's going on right here, if you bought the stock. >> on the breakout. >> from november 5th. >> and it was nearly. >> a double. >> from november. >> 6th to december. >> 18th, you. >> know. >> you have to believe. >> in his proximity. >> to the president and. >> the white house. >> and what that might mean. >> for deregulation is going to help all the things that he's not focused on right now. >> they're not making. >> a low end ev. >> to compete. >> with some of the low end

competition that's coming from china in other places. >> so at the end of the day, if. >> the promise was. >> that we're going to get to full self-driving. >> then we're going to get to robotaxi is going to happen sooner. >> than you think. >> and oh, by the way, this optimus thing is going to be really helpful. >> in making all this stuff. and you can buy one. >> too, and you can have it in your house. that's not happening. anytime soon. >> so when you think. >> about this stock. >> i mean, it. >> really could round trip the entire move. >> back to november. >> 6th, because the fundamentals. of the car. >> business are not. >> particularly good and. they're only getting worse. >> right now. there are a lot of things to come. and yet byd today announces its self-driving offering, and it's called god's ai across all models and not for an additional fee, which which tesla is offering in terms of full self-driving. and they're starting at a very low pricing point. they're going across three levels. and this could actually force, you know, the rethink in terms of these services. are we going to charge for them or not. and there might be pressure to not charge for them. >> the whole company. >> yes, absolutely. >> and you know, january. >> 29th. >> was a wednesday. we were here together. >> they tesla. reported earnings. >> margins were a disaster. >> the worst. >> margins in over five years.

and i said to you that. >> night. >> if we had played the game. >> if you had told me last night this was going to happen, where's the stock? i said it would have been down $50. it was not. as a matter of fact, it got up to about 415 or so. now here's the $50 in the rear view mirror. i'm not sure why the market's deciding now to sort of punish them on what i think was the back of that quarter and some of these headlines. but i do think it's justified. and dan talks about round trip. yeah. maybe we stopped today at about the 150 day moving average. it's a normal place for us to bounce. but you know fundamentals matter. the fundamentals to me suggest lower tim. >> it's always been a story of we're betting on the concepts and we don't necessarily have delivery. i mean energy storage is another one of these things that the analyst community got really excited about. i mean, ultimately the revenue number missed pretty badly. yes, there were some positives on the margin, but then there was and you know, let's point to the lowest cost of goods sold on record. and there's some dynamics that i think are things that that the bulls can point to. i just take it back to what's the company worth? and it's much like we're going to have a conversation about, you

know, chairman powell. and they can only price in tariffs when they actually see the impact. i'll price this into the model when i actually have these revenues. not where i think growth could be. that's always been my story here. you know the current pe is north of 150. even after some of this pullback that that's what it comes down to. again there's a lot of moving pieces. there's a lot of unknowns. there's a lot of upside. there's a lot of excitement. there's a lot of core businesses that certainly are hard to put a number on. and that's exactly right. i'm not putting a number on. >> them today. the action was not very good. katy on very heavy volume. it finished at its lows. >> yeah. >> so it. took out some. >> support around 350. >> it does follow. >> a major. >> breakout though. >> that was a big resistance level for it to get through. post-selection. so we think this is a counter-trend move and ultimately something that will yield a buying opportunity, believe it or not, because it ran up so quickly, though it is not oversold yet. from an intermediate term perspective, we have no counter-trend buy signals, so we think it will take some time to get there. >> and of course there's all the arguments that, you know, he's tight with trump and therefore

things like investigations like nhtsa investigations or the doj investigation, maybe those will go away magically or be lessened if there's something if there's wrongdoing to be found. at the same time, there's also backlash when it comes to his association with with donald trump. >> since, you know, when those were brought up, i mean, it didn't seem to have any impact at all. i mean, maybe in some odd way, the fact that they effectively cozied up to the administration and they will be dropped, maybe he'll get punished on the back end for that, i'm not sure. but to katie's point, i think her work would suggest like 280. if you go back and look like last summer. that was the level we had trouble at a couple of times on the upside, and then finally broke out post-election, it makes sense to do a round trip, and the round trip that dan talks about is this 280 level. then you can have a conversation about buying it. >> yeah, i'll just say this. >> and tim laid. >> out, you know, some of the other things that you could get excited about from a fundamentals standpoint. and again, we don't know when this is going to happen. >> and, you know, if you want. >> to give musk credit for anything, it's like. >> he. >> puts this vision out in the

world. he pursues it very hard. he makes a reality happen for the most part again. eventually there will. >> be. >> full self-driving. there will be tesla robotaxis, there will be robots, all that sort of thing. >> but if you're. >> willing to do that. >> now, if. >> you're willing to pull forward all that excitement, it's kind of hard to see how. you can make money. like doing that for, you know. >> you know, again. >> and again. >> i mean. >> this is. >> one of the worst on november 5th. this is one. of the worst. performing mega-cap tech stocks. >> over. >> the prior. >> three years. >> during this whole. >> bull market. >> so it got really. >> disconnected from. >> fundamentals for a bunch of reasons that you can't put your finger on. >> so i guess when i think about this coming in. >> i think there's a potential air pocket. if musk were to leave the administration, whatever you want to. >> call it, then. >> all of a sudden, if you were really excited from 250 up to 500, essentially, and now here you. >> are at. >> 325, where do you think the stock goes? if he were to leave doge, if he were to actually have. beef with the administration, it goes lower. it doesn't go higher. >> right. we've got some breaking news out of the white house. eamon javers has more on that meeting between musk and president trump. eamon. >> yeah, melissa. it ended up being something like a half an

hour news conference with elon musk and donald trump. and elon musk was asked by reporters in a number of different ways about the critics of doge, his government efficiency operation, who say that elon musk is basically operating without any accountability, without any transparency, without any checks and balances in the normal course of business. here's what elon musk had to say about that. >> all of. >> our actions. >> are are. >> fully public. >> so if you. >> see anything you say like, wait a second. hey, you know that. that seems like maybe that's, you know, there's a conflict there. it's not like people are going to be shy. >> about saying that. >> transparency is. >> what builds trust. >> not. >> simply somebody asserting trust. it's not somebody saying they're trustworthy, but transparency. so you. >> can see everything. >> that's going on and. >> you can see, am i doing. >> something that benefits. >> one of my companies or not? >> it's totally obvious. >> and we thought. >> that. >> we would not let him do that segment or look. >> in. >> that area. if we thought there was a lack of transparency

or a conflict of interest. >> and we. watched that also. >> so you heard the president there at the end saying that if he thought there was any conflict of interest, he wouldn't let elon musk in do any of the things that he's doing. you know, the problem with that, the critics will say, melissa, is that, you know, really it's just down to the white house's judgment about whether it's appropriate for elon musk, for example, to be involved in pentagon spending decisions when the pentagon is obviously a huge contractor of starlink, or with nasa spending when nasa is a huge contractor with spacex. so we'll have to see how this relationship sorts out over time, because, you know, there are some potential conflict of interest pitfalls here for elon musk. but as for now, he says, look, everything i'm doing is public. and trump says we'll keep him away from anything that wouldn't be appropriate melissa. >> all right eamon thank you eamon javers standing at the winter wonderland they call the white house today. let's get back to tesla and its self-driving cars here and its

pursuit of self-driving. let's bring in fred lambert the editor in chief of electric fred. great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me. >> what do you make of i mean, overall, do you think that it is a benefit or it is a risk that elon musk is so tightly associated with donald trump? >> i would think right now. we've seen the impact that we are kind of missing with the it's hard to you cannot gauge the impact of elon's political meddling right now. it's impossible to put a number on it. it's having an impact most likely than not. but it's very difficult to put a number on it or to, to say that, like all of this today in the market, what we're seeing is the impact of elon musk and his doge. middling. >> right. i'm just curious, though. i mean, in terms of the core business and the hopes of investors in tesla stock, i mean, you wonder how is it going to benefit the core business that elon musk is involved with

the trump administration? is it more cons because he's distracted? he's got other things to do that other things that he's he's he's doing on behalf of the united states instead of working on his business. is it more of a benefit? because perhaps those investigations that we talked about, the nhtsa investigations into into six crashes, the doj investigation into the claims of full self-driving, the regulations that will pave the way for robotaxi, all those things will be a benefit for tesla stock, ultimately. >> well. >> over the biden administration, there were several investigations into this was a self-driving products in the us, and they got a slap on the wrist with basically having to change a bunch of alerts system and monitoring driving system. and that was basically all they had to force tesla to do a complete stop instead of what we call in canada, an american stop, or in the us. sometimes you call the californian stop. that was basically it. so in the us, regulators are not the bottleneck for tesla's self-driving effort. the

technology is the bottleneck. and tesla's technology right now, based on the latest crowdsourced data, is at about 500 miles between critical disengagement. and tesla itself says that it needs to be at 700,000 miles between disengagement to be safer than human than human drivers, which is what nhtsa says is miles between human collisions, which makes sense. >> so how important is this event in austin in june for the for the self-driving car? >> well, that's a masterful play by elon. he's he's going to be moving the goalpost basically. so tesla has been promising to all its customers since 2016 that all cars they're building is capable of full self-driving has the hardware full self-driving. they've been wrong twice about this. already announced that they have to change the computers on two different occasions. so what they're going to do right now is basically elon is losing all credibility when it comes to self-driving. he's literally been saying that it's going to happen by the end of the year. for the last 6 or 7 years or so now. so what he's going to do in june instead is going to he's going to launch waymo. he's

going to launch a service that's geofence, that is teleoperated or teleoperation supported remotely. it's going to be more likely than not map, though that's not entirely sure. and it's going to be an internal fleet rather than the customer vehicles that he's been talking about for years. so basically, it's going to announce that tesla has achieved unsupervised self-driving, but it's going to be a service that waymo has launched four years ago, including now in austin already. so. >> farhad, i've been reading articles including one on electric about analysts in europe specifically that are concerned about the elon musk political sort of, you know, siding with the far right wing of various parties in europe, particularly in germany, and how that can actually backfire, particularly when it comes to sales in germany, which is a very important market for tesla. you ran an article on electric that had pictures of various, you know, there there's instances of vandalism at various stores in europe. there's also in the in the

berlin factory. excuse me. they projected a picture of elon doing that salute, that nazi like salute along with heil tesla onto the face of the berlin factory. i mean, what do you make of those sorts of reports? >> i mean, in europe, they take the nazi stuff pretty seriously for good reasons. not that we don't necessarily here, but it's less of a reality for us in north america. so saying similar things in china, which you know, is tesla is the most important market. you know, elon could call his kids adolf and they probably would be fine in china. but in europe, we're seeing the impact right now. i think obviously there's the model y changeover that's also not helping tesla sales. but in some markets you can see that the model three that's hurting even more than the model y. so in europe is the is the only market right now that we have that, that we can clearly see that elon's meddling in politics is affecting tesla negatively and in a significant way. the vandalizing stuff, i mean, it's, you know, it's frustration.

people are like it's literally criminals. so i don't i don't put that much weight into that. but the failing cells are pretty clear to me. >> yeah. fred, thanks so much for joining us. great to get your take. no problem. lambert of electric. all in all, i don't know. what do you make of this? >> well, again, remember six months ago or before this parabolic move, we i think it was universally thought that the company had probably 12 to 18 months of rough sledding for markets, for valuations, for things that would drive the stock higher. and there have been different reasons why. a lot of them have been certainly macro related that have seen it go higher. if you look at 25, the core auto business has headwinds. you've got higher startup costs, you've got dynamics around china and the risks that we've talked about. and i just think that those are the things that for an investor at least like me, it's there's very little to be excited about in the short run. you can talk about the dcf model out to 2035 on robo and that it's worth 80 billion in revenues, which some analysts are doing. but i don't do that.

>> all right. >> meantime we've got an earnings alert on lyft. the stock is dropping sharply after missing top and bottom line estimates. that conference call is now underway. our deirdre bosa has got the details. debo. >> hey mel. so it's really that soft guidance that's taking shares lower in the after hours by about 8%. when i spoke to ceo david risher on the results, he attributed the soft guidance to new pricing pressure. he says that showed up at the end of last year. he said we price competitively and reliably. if someone else takes it down, we will match them. so that has been sort of weighing on their earnings. the after hours declines. that wipes out all of lyft's year. >> to. >> gains and the bump that it just saw yesterday on that announcement that it will roll out mobileye powered robotaxis in 2026. i also asked risher about the impact of waymo, because robotaxis is really the thing that moves these ridesharing stocks. waymo has expanded in san francisco, which is an important market for lyft, but risher says he sees it still as a premium product, so not exactly competitive. the earnings call is ongoing. right now. the cfo is speaking. they

haven't got to q&a. but i'll bring you any highlights back to you, mel. >> all right. thanks. deirdre bosa in san francisco. >> yeah we. >> talked about this yesterday. at least the announcement the. timing of it. pretty curious about robotaxis in 2026. you know the day before earnings. you know i looked at this thing and i said listen you know it probably is okay here. you're looking at a 4 or 5, you know billion dollar enterprise value. if they are really serious about partnering with mobileye and others to do these ring fenced, you know, robotaxis, it's probably like a cheap entity. it probably could still get bought by a google or other sort of companies that actually divested some of their interest in robotaxi or autonomous vehicles over the last couple of years. so, you know, i one thing i do not like, the stock had that huge gap last quarter because they guided up for bookings for this year. and now they've kind of missed that. and the guidance seems kind of squishy. so that's not great credibility right there. >> you know. >> it's had. >> a good oversold bounce. but to me with this likely breakdown tomorrow it's in a void. we often see these oversold retests from these stocks. and in fact

we think the same might happen with the broader market so that there is risk, broadly speaking, and that this pick up in volatility from a bottom up perspective, including these earnings reactions is more negative than positive. >> you're glad you didn't put it in band. make it bland. >> yeah. >> no, it would have really been bland if. >> you had that. >> etf would not have tasted so good. so i acronym excuse me i think you've got a dynamic here where it's approved me story. and even though bookings were up 15% and this was a record quarter, and you've. >> got the cfo out there. >> saying that market share is the best they've seen since 2022. there's still a lot of things that i think are left unsaid. so i to me, i think the market punishes on something that where the guide is not great. that's not surprising. the stock is basically traded in a very wide range, but in a range for the last year and a half. and i think it's about a story that still needs to establish credibility. >> uber, by the way, is down 1%. >> our sympathy. and i think, you know, my sense is you buy uber on the back of that. it was down today as well. you look at the lyft quarter i mean i get

the guidance scared people. they're selling off the stock. the quarter's pretty good. tim just said it. not only that i mean margins better. probably the best margins they've ever seen in terms of 7.3% free cash flow came in $100 million ish more than the street was looking for. this is actually a really good quarter. if you think they're sandbagging, then i think you buy the stock here and i think they're sandbagging. >> all right. down 9% plus at this moment. coming up more after hours action. shares of supermicro on the move after its latest results and an update on its delayed annual report. what they are saying about a potential nasdaq delisting that is next, plus an overseas tech team up. apple reportedly picking an ai partner to bring its tech to china. how that move could impact market share in that region, and what it means for the china trade ahead. do not go anywhere fast. money is back in two. >> this is fast money with melissa lee right here on cnbc. and in the world of investing,

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authenticated luxury resale. shop now with code tr20 for 20% off. terms apply. >> welcome back to fast money. shares of supermicro higher by 10% after the server maker announced preliminary q2 expectations and full year guidance. cnbc's christina partsinevelos has got all the details. christina. >> yeah, well, supermicro is racing against the clock right now to avoid a nasdaq delisting. the eye server maker promising

again today in that business update, they'll file their delayed annual report and outstanding quarterly reports by the deadline february 25th. this all started when an activist investor raised some serious questions about their accounting, which led to their auditor, ernst and young, cutting ties, which is some pretty messy stuff. you're seeing the timeline on your screen. but here's the interesting part. supermicro telling investors after the bell today that they won't need to revise any past financial statements. while their latest earnings might have missed the mark. yes, they did lower their full year 2025 outlook in their business update, but the company is playing the long game. their ceo is particularly excited about their liquid cooling technology for data centers, boldly predicting they'll hit $40 billion in revenue by 2026. plus, they're beefing up their war chest with an extra $700 million in capital. that's what this could mean for nvidia and maybe raises some concerns about the production of nvidia's server racks. and supermicro builds them for nvidia. but shares are definitely not reacting right now. the business update, though, is supermicro way of saying we've had some

bumps, but we're still in this race so far. investors agree shares are up 11%. let's see if that momentum continues ahead of that february 20th 25th deadline and the earnings call, which is underway right now. >> so, christina, i'm not sure if they said this explicitly, but they don't have to restate any results because of the findings by the investigation by the committee that they appointed, which is a single person. >> exactly. it's all just like that they had in december, the independent investigation that found no misdoings. and so today they are reassuring investors again that they do not have to restate anything, even if there is just one auditor right now. so it's going to be no changes. >> christina. thank you. christina. partsinevelos there. independent investigation was an independent board member. it was a single board member who managed to go through months and months of financial results in a very short amount of time, but here we are up 11%. guy, what do you make of this whole thing? >> people are betting that

they're going to get it in by the by the february 25th deadline. now by the way, this was due in august of last year. just full disclosure. and the quarter wasn't particularly good. and christina mentioned $40 billion of revenue in 2026. i mean, that basically is the same revenue trajectory that they've been on. so they're not telling you really anything. i don't think different. it all comes down to if you think they're going to file the stock can probably, as i said last night, you could actually get it up to 70 bucks and then we'll have a conversation. but i don't think you play it out of the way right now. >> you know, it's interesting when you look at their suppliers nvidia, broadcom, amd, intel i mean the list goes micron, the list goes on and on. it's kind. >> of. >> an important company in the ecosystem. we know it's kind of a two horse race between them and dell. we know that dell has twice the gross margin. so that was one of the issues. i think that was kind of hurting this company. i don't remember exactly what some of the allegations were. i bet it gets sorted out. and the other thing i'll just say is that, you know, you see a stock like this, it's up 10%. it was down 10%. you know, meme stocks are having their day. we talked about it. look at upstart in the aftermarket today. you know yesterday was affirm and carvana. so you know again this

is one where i'm sure the short interest is you know pretty high. and this thing is down a lot. >> internal controls was what the auditor that resigned flagged. you like intel though which dan mentioned. >> yeah i mean. >> it's obviously a safer play. the beta in supermicro is incredibly high. so i think intel as an alternative is attractive. it has what looks like a double bottom formation on the chart. it held some very important support around 1885 and closed above its 50 day moving average today on improved momentum. so intrigued by it. >> there's a lot more fast money to come. here's what's coming up next. >> apple picks a partner, the tech giant reportedly inking a deal to bring ai features to china's iphone users who they're buddying up with, and whether the move can help staunch a shrinking market share. plus, could short term optimism over president trump's economic policies give way to some longer term pain? the potential impact of the most recent tariffs, regulations and executive orders out of the white house. you're

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reportedly picking alibaba as a partner to help bring apple intelligence features to iphone users in china. the company has been facing shrinking market share in the country, losing out to domestic rivals like huawei, apple and alibaba both getting a bump on the report, while baidu, which seemingly lost out on the deal, dropped. this is according to the information. they also reported that they actually submitted the ai features to the china cyberspace regulators, who would have to approve everything before it gets released on the phone. tim. so it looks like it's far down the line. if you believe this report. >> it's good and it's good for some of the reasons why both companies are also potentially more interesting or discounts that have been put on the company. so if you think about apple and some concern about what's going on in china, we've talked about it at nauseam, certainly in terms of handset sales, but in terms of them being sanctioned or blessed or being, you know, okay, to do business in china, this is a good sign in terms of alibaba and their ability to do business with the west. and again, that to me is the biggest dynamic around investing in alibaba because as we've talked about many times, it's not a macro

call in china 40% cash. et cetera. et cetera. but you know back to the ai. and i think ultimately apple whether apple intelligence is anything now and whether deep segment you begin to push it really even faster onto handsets. the bottom line is i think apple will always be the way that most people are going to be doing search or carrying out. it's the vehicle, it's the platform until otherwise it's apple's game. >> yeah, it just depends. >> whether that's going to be the game in china. right. so when you think about it i mean this is a company that's been losing market share to local providers. we know that things like wechat these super apps there, they can run on very cheap android phones. or huawei has some really great high end ones that have been competing very well with apple. when you think about apple's privacy focus here in the us, it kind of interesting to think that they have to partner with an alibaba locally, where we know all that data can go right to the government, you know. and so it's just like we have a lot of our companies that want to be there. and they almost need to be there. 20% of apple's sales come from china, which are down 12% year over year. it's not

doing particularly well. so what are they willing to kind of sacrifice as it relates to the sort of messaging that they have here in the us? and so i think this is something that we're going to be living with for a while, especially in a world where tiktok is such a debate here. deep seek is going to be such a debate here. so again, it's important. i just don't see it as a really material thing for at least a year or two. >> maybe not necessary for apple, i do think for baba. and you know, david tepper, we talked about it yesterday and they asked him they the morning show, are you concerned about china? and he said my concerns about china, my hedges i don't care. so he's sort of guns blazing. and we said it last night. you get through 118 and alibaba which i think we will. and you're talking uncharted territory. this stock to me is still about 30% too cheap. >> 118 the key. >> you know well baba looks better than apple on its chart which is kind of curious. i do not want to chase momentum in this environment though, so we can't look at baba in a vacuum. if we did, it would be a buy because it has a short term breakout, a long term basing phase, whereas apple it feels

like it has another wave lower to it to this longer term uptrend. so baba is more attractive. but i think in this environment we want to always wait for the pullback. >> coming up. just three weeks in and there have been a lot of announcements coming out of the white house. what it could mean for the economy long term when for the economy long term when fast money ret only servicenow connects every corner of your business so people can do all their work on one platform. no more mindless swivel chairing between platforms. or swivel chairing between apps. no more swivel chairing! i don't feel so good. what does he do here again? mostly that kind of stuff. will you push me back? no. cost. >> whether it's. >> fueling meme coin. mania or. >> building infrastructure. >> for high frequency trading. networks on wall street. >> developers are. choosing the solana network. >> and now osprey. >> brings you a tradable ticker for. solana osol. don't let solana fly by.

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rates from fed chair jerome powell. the dow jumping 123 points, the s&p just eking out a small gain, and the nasdaq falling about 4/10 of a percent. shares of coca-cola leading the dow today, the stock jumping nearly 5% after the soda maker reported earnings and revenues that topped estimates this morning. net sales growing 6% for the quarter, fueled by rising global demand. shares of meta further extending its record winning streak. the stock closing at another all time high, notching its 17th straight day of gains. the stock is up nearly 18% in that time. shares of t-mobile hitting a fresh all time high today that stock up nearly 60% over the past year and some after hours action. shares of gilead higher after beating expectations on the top and bottom line. doordash earnings in line with estimates and a lending platform. upstart

surging after hiking its q1 and full year revenue guidance. meanwhile, president trump has had a busy first three weeks in office announcing increased tariffs and a massive deportation plan, restructuring government departments and making investments in energy and i. and while markets seem to be initially optimistic about his policies, what will the long term impact be? let's ask former pimco chief economist paul mcculley. he is also an adjunct professor at georgetown mcdonough school of business. professor mcculley, great to have you with us. >> good to be with. >> you, melissa. >> i like how you explained the concept of risk versus uncertainty, because i feel investors right now are facing uncertainty as opposed to risk. >> yeah. >> i think. >> that's very much right. >> in fact, i. >> teach my students this all the time and risk is calculating the odds. >> in a game. >> where you know. >> the parameters and you. >> know the. >> rules, you may win. or lose, but you know the rules. so you're taking. >> defined risk where.

>> uncertainty is. when you are playing a game and you don't know. >> the. >> parameters, you don't know the rules. the rules are in flux. and actually you respond as an investor or as a human being differently to risk than you do to uncertainty. you keep playing. if all you're doing is managing risk. but when you face uncertainty, you don't know what the rules are. then you tend to pull back. so actually, from the standpoint of the economy, there's more downside risk from uncertainty about the rules as opposed to simply risk within the context of definable rules. >> let's say, for instance, this period of uncertainty lasts for, i don't know, six months. it could be longer, it could be shorter. but as an economist, how do you sort of factor that into your projections for the economy, for spending, for inflation, etc? >> well, i think. >> you naturally start with a

baseline, and that's obviously what the federal reserve does. and a baseline will tend to extrapolate from where you've been adjusting for this, that and the other. but fundamentally the object in motion continues. and from that standpoint it's actually we're in a good place. in fact, chair powell said that many times today we're in a good place on the economy from the standpoint of the dual mandate. unemployment at four. inflation with a two handle. we're in a good place there. the fed is in a good place with the policy rate having recalibrated 100 basis points down to four and 3/8, which is not necessarily neutral but pretty close. so essentially you logically forecast that the economy will continue humming along and the fed's going to hang out in the right neighborhood. so that becomes your base case forecast. and then you're just looking for

all of the wild cards with respect to the parameters of the game. and i think that's what the fed will be doing as well. i mean, fortunately they did the recalibration and they're in a good place right now. so effectively they are well positioned. as chair powell likes to say, to respond whether or not the uncertainty clears up or the uncertainty becomes more nefarious. so that's the essence of how you are forecasting. it takes humility. but also for the fed, they're in a really good starting point. so essentially, if mr. trump doesn't kick this economy out of sync with reality, then the economy should perform pretty well. >> i love the optimism, paul. love the flow as well. so i guess you would then think that moving yields since september higher is on the back of an economy that's doing better. but is there a point where rates get too high in your opinion?

>> by definition, there has to be, because we're starting from a very, very flat yield curve. and if for whatever reason, uncertainty being predominant, particularly on tariffs, which have a stagflationary smell to them, if you go down that path, you'll get a bear steepening of the yield curve, and then that would raise a major question about valuations across a whole bunch of assets and could turn animal spirits negative. so that's what i'm focusing in on there. it's not a particular level. i mean i think we're probably going to be for the ten year 400, a 3:45 and three quarters for the next six months or so. but if you move to a level that effectively leads animal spirits to turn down and you see a big correction in financial conditions to the

restrictive side, then it becomes problematic. >> hoya saxa, professor mcauley, do you think we're making too big a deal about the politics of the fed in washington? you sit in washington, you've been very close to, you know, the dynamics here for a long time. >> i think the fed is in a really good place right now. and fortunately, they did the recalibration. and we're at a level for the policy rate at four and 3/8. that is really not offensive to anybody. in fact, president trump himself gave a salute to mr. powell for setting steel a couple of weeks ago. so effectively, not even mr. mr. trump could find something to complain about. and then we have our new treasury secretary not talking about short rates but talking about long rates in a way that confuses me at times. but essentially the politics

that's going on in washington is not going to infect the fed. i don't think. and also along those lines in that mr. powell voiced a very open mind to where we're going on the bank and financial regulatory front, recognizing that the fed doesn't have a monopoly in bank regulatory matters like it does in setting the policy rate. and we got new people at the office of the comptroller, which is in the treasury and also the fdic. and so he commented that he's going to be, you know, open minded and work in a collegial fashion with these new colleagues on the regulatory side. so i don't worry too much about where the fed is in the firmament of politics and democracy. i think we're fortunate that we have a

statesman as chairman of the fed. >> paul, we always love having you on. thanks so much for joining us. >> thank you. >> paul mcculley. now of georgetown. we've got some inflation numbers this week that are going to be very important. >> yeah. >> i think it's really interesting what professor just said there is like if trump is going to back off the fed a little bit and let them do their thing, that's probably the best thing that they could have done for him. if they see inflation go higher, it really kind of hurts. i think their pro growth agenda and they probably lose a lot of support of his electorate in the base in general. so again, i think powell has done a pretty nice job here staying pat. and you know, that's probably the best thing if you believe in this pro growth agenda and watching inflation and make sure it doesn't get reinflated. >> coming up. high energy charting what katie stockton is seeing in the technicals as crude bounces off recent lows. how she is playing the pump next. and throughout february we are celebrating black heritage. here's the coo of t rowe price.

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>> welcome back to fast money energy. catching a bid this week on reports activist investor elliott management has upped its stake in both bp and phillips 66. katie here says there's more reason to be positive on the space. let's go off the charts. so, katie, what are you looking at? >> well. >> it's really perked. >> up from a momentum perspective. and also from a relative perspective, if you look at the rotational work on the sector front, normalized versus the s&p, you'll see some rotations that are starting to favor the more cyclical areas of the market. the more defensive areas of the market. it's all occurring at the expense of the megacap heavy sectors. sorry, technology. >> we don't usually see this kind of chart. it looks almost like a weather pattern. >> so constellation. >> i actually. >> see hurricanes. >> i see. >> castor and pollux. >> it looks like the gulf. >> of america. >> but in all seriousness. >> you see the twins. >> let me explain a little bit here. so this is a normalized view of sector rotation. we all know sector rotation is there. this is a way to visualize it.

think of it like a data visualization tool. it's normalized. the crosshairs represent the s&p 500. anything going down into the left is underperforming with growing momentum typically and vice versa. so you assume a clockwise rotation. notice that energy has just reversed into favor. this is a six week trailing history that you're seeing behind the sectors. and then off to the lower left. those are the more oversold areas of the market. so this is where i think there's more opportunity for that rotation to benefit. and it does include energy of course. and i think that it could become more sustainable more than just a counter-trend move if we were to see crude oil, of course, break out from what has been a very prolonged range. it's right now in a triangle formation. triangles tend to be very high probability. if we were to see it resolved to the upside, that would happen above about $76 per barrel for wti. that would be a major breakout for crude oil and could lend sustainability to a sector that tends to be sort of

have a mind of its own. so if you believe that we could see more consolidation or a weaker tape this year like we do, we think energy could just be on its own path. right? we have seen that happen before. now with all of this, of course, the individual stocks are perking up as well. they've been mostly in cyclical downtrends. we looked at slb in our work this week and you'll see that it has a counter-trend buy signal that kind of reversed the sell signal from a few months before, and shows signs of life from a momentum perspective with some positive divergences. and these are really widespread in this in the space helped by the bp and csx moves as well. >> first of all, i agree. can we put that back up because jason gewirtz now breaking the ninth wall or something, if you put it looks like remember that game simon. we have to remember what colors came up. simon says yellow. yes, that's what i thought. it looked like the spaghetti. look at that. look, look in the thing. like look in the middle of it. you know what? >> a viewer named drew, a friend. >> of. >> mine, he.

>> just texted me the same thing. game of simon. really? i think a lot of the viewers are thinking about it. >> okay, i like. >> it, i like. >> that, but i. >> like it. >> and i like the fact that energy is getting its mojo and schlumberger quickly. if it gets above 44, it's broken. a two year downtrend. melissa lee. >> she just said yeah. >> did she. >> yeah she said. >> those i said. >> said those exact things. >> you're too busy texting with. >> jason says hi by the way. >> mel. hi jason. coming up fed chair jerome powell raising concerns about the housing market in his testimony today. what he had to say about mortgages, mortgage rates, a housing shortage and much more. fast money is back in two. >> the thing about. >> work, it's. >> always changing. >> but with. >> the right. >> perspective. >> what seems confusing or. >> just out of reach can suddenly fall into place. >> if it's a. >> if it's a. >> ♪ in any business, you ride the line between numbers and people.

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>> we know he wants to hold on to the nba. how much more will he have to pay? >> a lot of the revenue. >> streams are guaranteed. >> the countdown is on. cnbc sport official craig here pays too much for business wireless. so he sublet half his real estate office... to a pet shop. there's a smarter way to save.

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but we're still going to be faced with high insurance costs and high material costs and labor shortages and all the things that that keep driving housing prices up across the country. >> so what does this mean for the housing trade, which has been under pressure recently? tim. >> i think housing, the housing trade is under pressure because i think the homebuilders went from a place where they're reasonably priced. there was so much interest rate sensitivity that when we started to get relief on them, they gave it this kind of this double umph after rallying for three years straight. the valuations aren't that great. the business is challenged. if you can't have access to capital, it makes it more difficult. they've been eating a lot of the financing costs and it's been lowering margins. i'm out. >> what does it look. >> like. >> very well for zillow. it actually looks kind of interesting. i like the term it's a big basin phase but but overextended in the near term. whereas homebuilders you know, the correction almost makes it look like a big head and shoulders top formation. >> louise is watching louise. that's an homage. >> the longer the base, the higher in space. >> so that like five times in the last two weeks. >> i haven't said it. tonight.

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>> next. >> if the market is becoming more skeptical. >> about these. >> types of. >> massive ai. >> investments. >> and even punishing companies that commit to that type of spending, then maybe the hyperscalers will start dialing back their hardware investments. >> mad money next. cnbc. >> time for the final trade. >> tim i. >> like katie's energy trade. i like the mlp trade even better. they've been rocking. energy transfer still goes higher. >> katie stockton a fair lead. >> yeah i'll go with umg, which is a natural gas fund and following. >> great to have you on the show tonight. katie. yes. dan. nathan. >> it was great. >> lyft i was intrigued last night. i think the slight bookings miss is probably okay. down 10%. >> there you go. >> i'm still intrigued. >> yeah. >> no, you can't tell. but the set looks like the simon game,

too. like, if we had an. >> overhead, it's lit up. yeah. >> different colors. like, whack it. >> like that. >> you see that? >> that's a yeah. >> we sold more simon's tonight than they've sold in the last ten years. devon energy melms. >> thank you for watching fast money. see you back here tomorrow at five for more fast mad money with jim cramer starts right now. >> my mission. >> is. >> simple to. make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you. find it. >> mad money. >> starts now. >> hey i'm cramer. >> welcome to mad money. welcome to cramerica. other people make friends i'm just trying to. >> help you make some money. >> my job. >> is. not just to entertain. >> but to teach you. >> so call. >> me at one 800 743 cnbc or tweet me jimcramer. >> there is a gaping. >> hole in. >> the american. >> education system. although i hesitate even. to call it a system. >> when you go to. >> h