mention on cvs is that aetna's mlr came in lower than anticipated. so we see that for other mcos, that could be a boost for the sector. >> yeah. joe, why did you leave that out? >> i don't know, because i was fixated on your your tie and jacket combination. >> that's right. >> you're in spotify. >> you're excused. >> spotify a chart that looks as good as your tie and jacket combination. >> very much pandering to the hosts. >> oh, man. >> i'll see you on closing bell. >> thank you very. >> much, scott. and welcome to the exchange i'm kelly evans. well cpi just made things harder for stocks even with positive headlines on ukraine last hour. also making things harder for the president. before the hot print this morning, trump was calling once again for the fed to lower rates, saying it should go hand in hand with tariffs which haven't even shown up in the cpi print yet. but fed chair powell repeating there's no hurry to lower them on capitol hill today, and the market is now pricing in just one cut this year all the way in september. meantime, the yield on the ten year back up to 4.6%. remember

last week when treasury secretary scott bessent said they're focused on getting that down? it's not happening today or likely any time soon, our trader says. but he does have some ways to play it. then there's musk sharing his vision in an impromptu oval office press conference last night. one of our guests likes the silicon valley move fast and break things approach to getting things done in washington. the other says he's just breaking things. we'll debate. let's start with that inflation number, though. coming in hotter than expected, up half a percent in january. the annual inflation rate at three. one of my next guests expected this and says the rate cut cycle is over. joining us is bank of america securities head of us economics aditya baby on set with me is andrés garcia amaya. he's the ceo at zoe financial. aditya, your boss front ran you a little bit this morning. he was. he was making this point that you guys, there's no more rate cuts this year. elaborate. >> yeah. so this. >> inflation report really confirmed our concerns about underlying inflation. we've been

of the view that the core pce is basically stuck on trend between two and a half and 3%. we thought that the last three months of data, which were annualizing more around 2.2, 2.3% were a bit of a head fake. and now obviously we feel better around that view. and then if you look at where we are on inflation, which is stuck above target and where we are on the labor market, where the unemployment rate was within a whisker of having a three handle on it, we don't see any reason for the fed to be cutting any further. >> no reason for the fed to be cutting any further. i mean, we talked to barry knapp yesterday who could make the case for rate cuts based on kind of broader signs that inflation is cooling. and some people say, look, we've had hot january cpi prints year after year after year. maybe we can just look past this. >> but i think that's a very important point to make for sure. seasonal factors are inflating the january cpi data, but then to the same degree, they are lowering inflation over the rest of the year. so that

gets you back to the point that you don't want to take solace from the remaining 11 months if you're going to look through january. and i think the simplest solution is to just focus on the year over year rate, which again, looks like it's getting stuck. >> so what should the fed do? >> the fed should stay on hold. there's going to be a lot of political challenges if they really do want to hike. and we think that's some ways away. but the best way to avoid hiking is to not cut rates. >> is there anything they can do on the balance sheet? can can treasury fix this somehow? can doge fix this? >> yeah, i think that's pretty second order. i think that's pretty second order. there's certainly scope for doge to cut government spending. and if they're successful in that that would help. but would it help a lot on the inflation front? probably not. >> all right andres, bail us out here. what happens then? what happens to the market? what happens to housing? what happens to everything? >> i think the market. >> is stuck right now. >> because it can't. >> attach itself to one narrative. >> right. >> and you see that in the

market dynamics where you have. >> low volatility, low. >> correlation, but high. dispersion meaning stocks are moving but they're moving all in different directions. >> i'm glad you said that because it's kind of how it feels like it's been tough to even form the narrative. tech has been weaker than usual. other areas have been stronger. massive moves on earnings. >> yeah. so i think. >> this morning cpi number definitely gives the narrative of oh no inflation. >> is going up. >> the fed won't be able to. >> hike i'm. >> sorry lower interest rates. >> that's bad for stocks. >> but then. >> earnings are killing. >> it right. >> fourth quarter earnings up 12%. they're not done. like 75%. >> of. >> stocks have reported. but the. >> expectation was. >> 712% is really strong. >> yes. so it's one of those of which narrative is going to win out. and right now when you look at the structure of the market, no one has won out yet. but we are close from all time highs, so it feels much worse than it actually is. >> just yesterday, we were talking about how resilient stocks have been in the face of tariffs and all the rest of it. so do you think the cpi print spoils the party?

>> i don't think one print will spoil the party. and i think you need to take into consideration the broader story, which is gdp has held up unemployment rates at 4%. even if the fed, god forbid, they have to hike 25 basis points. this is not the same hiking cycle of going from 0 to 5 and a half. this would be maybe 25, maybe, maybe 50. sure, there'll be a short term freak out, but i think the market could hold off if earnings continue to deliver and the economy continues to deliver. >> it's still fascinating that we've gone. now we're talking about the end of the rate cutting cycle and whether hikes or when or how hikes could be the next step. speaking of all of this, we had a ten year note auction just at the top of the hour. let's bring in rick santelli. rick, how was demand. >> you know. >> demand wasn't bad i gave it a c minus. so a little less than average. and the main reason for the downgrade was that it tailed meaning the when issued market was trading about a basis point below where the auction actually went off in the dutch auction. so higher yields will lower price. the government's the seller lower prices and good.

let's go through all of it. 42,000,000,001st time offering. we'll have two more reopenings of ten year notes to yield 4.632, as i pointed out earlier. and that was the biggest demerit in terms of all the metrics the bid to cover was a little light. the combination indirect and direct bidders was a bit light. dealers took down about the ten auction average, which was 15. they came in at 14.8%. you can see that the yields are staggered here, meaning after the auction was ended, we're starting to drift up higher, but drifting up higher after we're already up from a 451 pre data to its current level of 463. well, that really does speak volumes actually the way the auction went off, considering how much yields moved higher and how the trend may have changed, i'm actually impressed that it went off at a c minus tomorrow. of course, we'll finish off 125 billion and coupon supply with

25 billion freshly minted 30 year bonds. >> rick. you also have your eye not only on the bond market, which really seems to be focused on cpi, on the dollar, which had reversed some of its earlier gains on these headlines of de-escalation, potentially between russia and the ukraine. we'll see. but how would you say those crosscurrents are kind of playing out this afternoon? >> well, i think that the crosscurrents are tough to keep up with. this administration has a lot of breaking news almost on a daily basis. i think it's obviously a good thing. it's even a bigger potential deal for europe. and europe, of course, is in the economic doldrums, and that's to say the least. ultimately, if the world gets more healthy from an economic perspective, it is definitely a good thing for the leader of the global economy. and that is the us. >> yeah. european stocks closed positive on, you know, a lot of these rumors and kind of speculation in the market. going back to that prisoner release yesterday rick for now thanks. not a great grade for the ten year auction, but at least yields are somewhat contained because now they have moved back

up significantly just as we were talking about them heading back down to 4%. >> yeah, i think to a certain extent when i was looking at, you know, where the ten year is now, you have to remember where this hiking cycle started and where it is now when it comes to real rates, right, one and a half, 2% real rates, it's very different. the starting from negative one, negative one and a half. so going back to the earlier comments, i don't think that this is as big of a deal in the year two years out. if 97 is a good example. 1997 the fed had to kind of reverse and hike one more time, and the market was up 22% that year. and there was a lot of the same dynamics, a lot of investment spending as a percentage of gdp. it was an eye. it was the internet at that point. so there are kind of trends that you could look at the late 90s and compare it to today and say, that turned out okay for a little bit longer. >> one of the ones that jumps out at me with that analogy is what happened to the ten year yield during that period. it climbed steadily, you know, so this narrative that, oh, rising interest rates are a headwind

for stocks. they're a headwind for tech stocks. they rose in tandem for like years on end. >> yeah. so it depends what the drivers are. if it's just inflation bad if it's some inflation but also real economic growth and real earnings for stocks. that's actually a positive thing. >> all right aditya you can wrap it up for us if the rate cutting cycle is over. if we need to even start thinking or talking about how to do we say slow? i mean, look at the layoff announcements today. this this is the other thing that people keep questioning. so yes, on the one hand we have sticky inflation. but now chevron laying off 15 to 20% of the workforce every few days seems to bring another layoff announcement from a major company, even the ones that are doing well. so how is that going to shake out in a in a macro way? >> i think the key for the fed is to separate anecdotes from data. so you focus on nonfarm payroll growth. it's going to be noisy from month to month. but if indeed the layoffs are adding up to something on an aggregate basis, then you're going to see it in the payroll data eventually, right? so as long as you don't see it there, and as long as payroll growth is

averaging around 150 to 170,000 on a three month, six month, 12 month basis, and your unemployment rate is low, then you don't want to overreact to these these anecdotes, because there's also seasonal layoffs that happen all the time. >> all right, all right. we'll see. i really appreciate you being here, aditya, on a very big, consequential day. aditya. bob from bank of america. andres, thank you so much as well. andres garcia. amaya here on set with me. let's dig into the housing market now where the buyers still aren't budging. dip in mortgage rates last week. that's history sparked some refinancing at least. diane olick has the details. diana. yeah. kelly. that's total history. >> it's short. >> lived because as you know, the cpi caused bond yields to rise and mortgage rates which rose slightly yesterday rose. even more today. so the average. >> rate on the 30 year fixed. >> jumped eight basis. >> points to. >> 7.13%, according to mortgage news daily. that's the. >> highest rate. >> in nearly a month. and this as we approach the president's day weekend. >> which. >> is kind of the unofficial. >> start of the spring. >> housing market rates had not

been moving much. at all for the past month, but refi demand had been gaining up 10% last week and 12% the week before. volume is. >> 33% higher year over year. >> now the. percentages are big because the. >> pool of refi candidates is. so small, but. >> it's actually. >> growing a tiny bit. >> not because. >> rates are falling, of. >> course. but because we're getting farther and farther away. >> from when. >> rates were at those. record lows several years ago. so a growing number of more recent borrowers now. >> have higher rates. >> and more have gained home equity. which helps them. >> to qualify. that's where you see the growth. so if rates today were at 6%, which is. >> where. >> we thought they were headed this year, about 17% of borrowers could be in the money on a refi, according to ice mortgage technology. and that's the highest share since 2016, but at 7%, which is, of course, where we are now, less than 1% of borrowers could benefit. so you see where those big percentages don't really say very much. as for home buyers, as you said, kelly, mortgage demand dropped again last week. it's pricey and lean out there

and not very good. >> yeah, even anecdotally there, if the home is in the sweet spot of affordability right now, kind of the pent up demand is so massive things. >> and if it's move in ready the move in ready houses are doing great. anything that needs work would the additional costs for renovations right now and labor. et cetera. nobody wants. >> i mean stuff's going for two 300 over asking and maybe they're pricing in a little bit conservatively. what happens to the rest of that inventory? inventory, though, to your point, the stuff that's higher priced or not modernized or that sort of thing. >> it is sitting. we are seeing days on markets rise exponentially. and that's why you're actually seeing the total inventory of homes for sale is actually pretty high. it's much higher than it was a year ago. but it's not because so many more people are listing their homes for sale. it's because all those homes that are not move in ready, that are not priced well and that people can't afford, are just sitting on the market longer, hence the supply. >> indeed. diana, thanks so much. we appreciate it. diana olick 30 year mortgage rate over 7%. meantime, elon musk, part of

an impromptu press conference in the oval office yesterday laying out and to some extent defending his vision for doge. here's some of what he said. >> some of the things. >> that i say will be incorrect. >> and should. >> be corrected. so nobody's going to. >> bat. >> a thousand. i mean any, you know. >> we will. >> make mistakes. >> but. >> we'll act quickly. >> to correct any. >> mistakes. >> with his son covering his eyes practically. my next guest can differ on differ, i should say, on what musk can accomplish. one says he's bringing a move fast and break things approach to affect change in washington. the other says he's just breaking things. let's bring in former council of economic advisors chair under biden, jared bernstein and aei's james pethokoukis, who is also a cnbc contributor. jared, do you think he's just breaking things? >> well, i think. >> he's moving. >> fast and breaking things. so i think i agree with with with my old friend jim. yeah. >> i think the biggest. >> problem with. >> what elon. >> musk is doing, besides the. >> fact that he's. >> an unelected. >> person with. >> way too much authority. >> given to him. >> by. the president.

>> is that he. >> doesn't know what he's doing. he doesn't. really understand this complicated. >> beast, which. >> is the federal government and institution. i've worked for a lot. too complicated, no question. and, you know, there is definitely things that could be improved and cut and efficiencies to be found. but if you read the executive order, i mean, first of all, it hardly even makes sense. this is the one trump signed yesterday that they were talking about. it calls for eliminating waste, bloat and insularity. i'm not quite sure what they mean by insularity, but you can't find a budget line that is labeled by any of those things, and what we've seen them doing is cut way too much meat, along with supposedly, you know, some fat. and yes, they're breaking breaking way too much. >> james, i find it interesting because those who are concerned are kind of the point jared's making. say this is too vague. it's overly broad. those who want the changes to happen are concerned. it's too vague and overly broad, and that there's no real there there.

>> yeah. >> i mean. >> i think at the end. >> of the day. >> if what we're looking, if what we're looking at is some employee cuts which basically focus on sort of diversity officers and some, you know, minor, you know, minor budget savings that i think all this will not have been worth it. i mean, it is causing a lot of uncertainty. it's causing business uncertainty. it's causing uncertainty to all the federal employees. it will not have been worth it, but that doesn't. so we don't know if that's the outcome. but if the outcome is actually a government which is leaner, more efficient, then then it will have been worth it. look, i understand why this is unsettling, but we have a government that will need to, you know, compete with china for the rest of this decade. we may have huge advances in ai coming down the pike. we have a national debt we have to deal with, and this government needs more first, more state capacity. and it has to have more voter confidence. confidence, do big things. and if that's the

result, at the end of the day, we have a more efficient, capable government that people trust. then it will have been worth it. >> yeah. jared, respond to that. i mean, jared, let me put it this way. would you agree with the larger goal of trimming the level of government spending or. no. >> yes, i can in our own budgets, we. >> had hundreds. >> of billions of dollars of spending cuts. so not. only do i agree with the goal, but sort of. >> the broad 30,000ft. >> of goals that jimmy just took us through. i mean, who could object to a better, more. efficient government? we all want that. you kind of have to ask yourself why no one's ever gotten there. let me try to make this as simple as i can, because, again, i think it gets way too complicated. we have a $29 trillion economy with. >> 330 million people. >> they all want to drink clean water. they want to send their kids to good schools. they want to drive on safe roads. they want to fly on safe planes. they want to get the retirement and the health benefits they're owed. they'd like to work in safe workplaces. and oh yeah, they'd like the nation to be

defended. i could keep going for a half hour. i trust me when i tell you that musk and the doge know nothing about those functions. all they know how to do is go in and cut a bunch of stuff. we saw that with the fiscal service, you know, taking over the treasury's database, which they've been blocked by, by the courts. i think thankfully, because there's a lot of important and confidential information there. so the complications i just took you through are kind of the other end of the continuum of jimmy's very warranted goals. and it's much harder to square those two than the doge understands. >> although, james, you'd say, look, this is kind of no different than when you bring in a consultant and have them review. you know, maybe it's less corporate, maybe it's, you know, but so what? what are the differences? >> well, listen, i mean, the difference is that this is a company that we that you're bringing in mckinsey or something there, there are tons of laws. there's procedure, you know, some things, you know, congress has to act on. but with all due respect to jared and i

and i and i thank him for his service in the biden administration, that critique about this is the way. we have always done it. and why haven't these changes been made before? well, that's that's kind of what people said about spacex. spacex would never work. there's a certain way you have to run a rocket program and they're doing something different. i would argue that the reason these changes have yet to be made is because we were trying to do it the old way, trying to, you know, have very long conversations with stakeholders and make sure no one's upset. so they're trying something different and maybe it won't work. but as i said, this country has huge challenges and maybe we need to move a little bit faster. >> go ahead. >> i think that's you. >> know. >> i think. >> that's really. >> interesting, jimmy. and i think that you make a resonant point. the problem is, is that i don't understand the new way. right. you've said in this conversation a lot of great goals that we need to get to. and you tell me that there's a new way of trying it. and i probably would agree with you that the old way has been too

kludgy and slow. but i don't understand the new way, and neither does doge. and in fact, we now have the courts on a daily basis, shutting down, you know, half or 75% of what they're doing. so if the new way is illegal, then we can't do it. all right. and if they're going to blow past that, then we're talking about constitutional crisis. so yes, we the only way to get to the new way. i guess this is what i'm saying. because you again, you make a good point, is to roll up your sleeves and do the work. you can't just have, you know, your staff of 19 and 25 year olds say, give us the database. we're going to cut $1 trillion. that will never. >> work the same. the sort of the parallel track where this is happening, james, and correct me if i'm wrong, is what they end up doing with this bill in congress. you know, is that where we could expect more meaningful cuts? >> yeah. listen, ultimately, like congress also needs to do things. listen, i am very curious to see, you know, where where doge goes, you know, again, is it going to be just beyond sort of, you know, you know, things that musk and trump

don't like? is this going to be more fun? you could go to every agency, even ones you think are well run and you can find not just cuts but sort of inefficiencies. so that so that's great. but for sort of the bigger changes, which i think jared was referring to, i mean, you are going to need congress, whether it's entitlement reform, whether it's the sort of giant, you know, permitting reform that failed in the last congress that we desperately need. so i think it really needs to be, you know, sort of doge plus a more act of congress that's interested in reform, right? >> and making bigger changes. jared. the last question is, meanwhile, you have someone at the omb who's also really dedicated to this kind of reform, and i wonder if they're going to be working together or to some extent, does musk distract while russell, you know, while they're working on other items and putting those into practice, maybe a little more under the radar? it will be interesting. >> i think the key thing that you and jimmy both got at is you use the word this kind of reform. what kind of reform are we talking about? jimmy is 100% right. permitting reform. we made a run on it. we weren't

able to get it over the goal line. that's so important to achieving our goals. i haven't heard word one from vote or from doge about that kind of reform, about a serious tax reform, a bipartisan effort that both sides could agree on. if you think about the housing shortfall, you were talking about inflationary pressures today, child. yes. there's so much unfinished business we have, none of which is being discussed in, quote, this kind of reform. >> all right, gentlemen, for now, appreciate you very much. james pethokoukis of aei and jared bernstein, former chair of the cea. coming up, the data center derivative play. vertiv one of the best stocks in recent years, down 7% today on disappointing guidance. they make liquid cooling systems for ai data centers. and remember, the shares had plunged 30% during that deep sea sell off a couple of weeks ago. so what is going to happen with demand now? we'll ask the ceo next. and as we head to break, take a look at stocks on a volatile session. the nasdaq erasing a 1% loss to

turn positive on headlines about trump looking for a resolution in ukraine. the dow erasing a 489 point loss. it's down 190. the s&p down a quarter percent. and the ten year still sitting post cpi at 464. we're back after this. >> this is the exchange on cnbc. >> individually each of us is great. >> but from. >> here you. >> can see we're one big team. at atlassian we believe real progress takes all of us working together on new sources of energy, cars that drive to the future, even pizza deliveries. together we can go beyond where we've ever been collaborating from anywhere on everything. atlassian makes software for teams to do what is impossible alone. >> did you know you. >> can save. >> with. >> good rcs. >> even if you have insurance? >> you know, i.

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of those losses now about 7% lower. they beat on the top and bottom line, but the first quarter outlook came in light and everyone's nervous about this right now. the maker of data center cooling systems reiterated full year guidance but lowered organic sales expectations. now, the shares are down nearly 23% since that deep seek rout in late january, amid concerns about how big a capex will really be. so let's ask the ceo of vertiv. ceo giordano albertazzi joins us now. gio, it's great to have you. welcome. >> thank you. >> kelly, great being. >> with you. >> i'm feeling more and more persuaded that the play here in the long run is going to be on, you k csumer apps and not so much on ai infrastructure. maybe you can persuade me that i'm wrong. >> two things i would like to. >> to do. >> first of. >> all, you said vertiv as. >> a as. >> a provider of liquid cooling. let me correct that a little bit. sure. liquid cooling, of course, is a. >> big, big. >> and. >> important part of our portfolio. but if we think about. vertiv as a whole, pretty

much a third. >> is cooling, of which liquid cooling. >> is a portion. >> a third. >> is power. >> so vertiv is. >> really kind of the entire infrastructure for data center. >> having said. >> that, there's no such thing as an app that runs without a data center infrastructure. so what we see happening in the market right now, and that's confirmed by the many declaration of capex expansion from many of the hyperscalers, is. >> $310 billion worth. so, i mean, that is a huge number, to be sure. >> exactly. so the direction is one of continuing to increase the infrastructure build out. and that's despite the efficiency that naturally happens both in the compute and the ml. so that's natural. all new technologies evolve towards more and more efficiency over time. that's true. also in this

case this drives more use, more adoption, more ai dissemination, more infrastructure, more data centers. >> so why did your first quarter outlook come in light? what happened with those lowered organic sales expectations? >> well let's let's talk about that. in in november we had an investor day and we gave an an indication of growth in in 2025. and if when we look at our 2025 revenue guidance now it's higher than than the guidance in november. so that's true in absolute terms. that's true in in in terms of growth relative to the point we were in we were in november. we had a very strong we had a very strong q4, of which we are very proud of. and if you consider our growth in absolute dollars, we are up.

so it's a very strong story. it's a very good story. operated by strong pipelines. >> no doubt it's strong. and you're in one of the fastest growing areas of the market right now. but you know i know the market's pretty smart. so whatever it had priced in it's now adjusting its expectations somewhat. and the shares are still down more than 20% from the deep sea news. so how lumpy do you expect the you know, this business to ultimately be? or in what other way can you try to convince people that the stock is really worth what it was worth a couple of weeks ago? >> look, the i think the thing i think the message here is one of a company that kept delivering on on its financial targets and beating the financial targets, and that's what we are set to do going forward. a very strong player in the data center space, a very strong pipeline, a portfolio that is very hard to

match. and, you know, we are in a good industry and in a good trajectory. so i'm very positive in the long term, and i feel very confident in, you know, in the growth and value creation model that we have shared with investors in, in november and that we have, you know, shared again this time around today. so very optimistic and very positive. >> are you involved with stargate down in texas at all? and can you tell us more about where your capex or your kind of deployment is going around the country and maybe even around the world? >> well, we are global, absolutely global. about 55% of our revenue is in in the americas. these are 2020. four numbers. and pretty much we're involved with most of what's going on in in north america and certainly in the us. so i don't

want to be specific with specific clients or initiatives. that's not what we do. but when you see kind of a big data center deployment or any data center deployment, because we are very, very kind of a very much on the territory also as a go to market as well as large accounts, very strong there. then you will find vertical. >> and you're headquartered in ohio. in westerville you've got 27,000 people. so this is a great kind of made in america story, part of the ai revolution. you know, as mentioned, as the demand kind of matures and maybe it's too early to use that word in the ai space. does how would that affect demand for your services? i mean, i have to imagine that kind of taking heat out of these complex data centers, whether they're the massive ones like stargate or smaller ones or what have you. just how do you expect that to look going forward? >> we have given a good nine, 12% long term growth of the

market. but if we look at the data center and especially the high end of data center, the large data center on the long term, we're talking 1,517% growth over the next over the next few years, and we expect us to grow faster than the market. so robust. and that robustness will continue over time. and this is particularly true in in north america in the us. but it's true also in the rest of the world, but particularly strong in in the us. >> all right gio thank you so much for taking the time today. >> it's a pleasure. >> really appreciate it. giordano albertazzi is the ceo of vertiv. again one of the strongest stocks in the market the past couple of years really. coming up, we'll take a look at the latest headlines from washington, where the white house press briefing is taking place as we speak. eamon javers is there. he'll bring us the headlines on a day that is featuring many on the featuring many on the russia-ukraine (♪♪) car, this isn't the way home.

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>> with your cnbc news. >> update, robert. >> f kennedy jr. s nomination to head the department of health and human services just cleared a key procedural hurdle. the senate voted along party lines to advance his nomination to a final vote, which is expected as soon as tomorrow. before president trump announced that he spoke with russia's vladimir putin today about beginning peace talks on the ukraine war. defense secretary pete hegseth said at a nato meeting in belgium that returning ukraine's borders as they were in 2014 is, quote, unrealistic. the secretary added that while peace for ukraine includes security guarantees and nato membership is not one of those. and eight inspectors general who were fired by president trump are suing over their termination. in the lawsuit, the inspectors general say their firings violate protections put in place in 2022. they want a judge to put them back to work. the eight were part of a group of more than a dozen inspectors general who were told by email just days after the president was sworn

into office that they would be fired. all right, kelly, that's the news. send it back to you. >> contessa, thank you very much. as we head to break, take a quick look at shares of robinhood, which are steadily moving toward session highs as the market tone improves. in fact, they're up 5% for their best day in nearly a month. they report after the bell today and tomorrow, we'll hear from ceo vlad tenev in a first on cnbc interview. 9:45 a.m. squawk on interview. 9:45 a.m. squawk on the street. we're back it all started with a small business idea. it's a pillow with a speaker in it! that's right craig. pulling in the perfect team to get the job done. i'm just here for the internets. at&t, it's super-fast! you locked us out?! and when thrown a curveball... arrggghh! ahhhh! [crashing sounds] we had everything we needed. is the internet out? don't worry, we have at&t internet back-up. the next level network for small business. ♪♪ i sold a pillow!

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to pay? >> a lot of the revenue streams are guaranteed. >> the countdown is on. cnbc sport official nba team valuations revealed friday in squawk box. >> welcome back. masa son joined president trump at the white house just a few weeks ago to announce softbank's investment in that massive stargate ai project. well, it comes as the company is now reporting a surprise loss of nearly $2.5 billion in its third quarter. deirdre bosa has more on the implications in today's tech check. hi, deirdre. hey, kelly. >> so that loss, mainly attributed to the vision fund, masayoshi son's massive bet on the startup ecosystem that kicked off in the late 20 tens. more interesting, though, were those comments around. >> project stargate. >> that's his next, even more ambitious bet on ai. >> i was able to find. >> out a few more financing details from a source familiar. softbank plans to put in about 15. >> to. >> $20. >> billion. >> initially, of the expected

$500 billion over four years. the rest will come from a combination of equity from founding partners. so that's openai, oracle, mgm, as well as co-investors. there's project and debt financing. expected as well. now, the ambition, of course, just to remind our audience, is to develop next generation ai infrastructure described in this earnings presentation slide from overnight as amazon's vision about helping people's lives and solving difficult issues that would otherwise remain unsolved with the power of ai. this next slide i'm going to show you lays out his even grander vision, why he's doing all of this. he wants to reach artificial superintelligence. that's further on than agi. asi surpasses human intelligence in all aspects, including creativity and problem solving. the four pillars that softbank points to chips, data centers, robots, and of course, energy. also on softbank's earnings call. and in its slides, which are always distinct. kelly. softbank touts masa's new, powerful relationships a photo

of masa san with president trump, altman and larry ellison at the white house just a few weeks ago. there's masa and altman on stage in tokyo last week. there was a few more throughout as well. and so what we're really seeing is this return of late 20 tens masayoshi son, when that billion, $100 billion vision fund and remember his spray and pray strategy of investing single handedly changed the venture capital startup and startup ecosystem, it had so many implications. kelly. we're only going to start to see the ramifications of this round's ambitions. remember, masayoshi son has a 300 year vision. he's putting it to work right. >> now, 300 year. i do too, actually. deirdre, thanks very much. deirdre bosa. the tech world is also still buzzing about elon musk's $97 billion offer for openai, while sam altman rejected the bid. my next guest says it was clever. musk was very clever in making this bold move. joining me with more on that and the next big thing in silicon valley. we don't have to talk about softbank is sam lessin, general partner at slowe

ventures. sam, it's good to have you here. welcome. >> we can. >> talk about softbank if you want. >> you know i was i was going to tee you up for you know your take on that. but maybe maybe it'll be different this time. >> maybe who knows. i would say that you know in our fund. >> we generally. >> sell when softbank buys. >> let's leave. >> it at that. >> i thought there now people know and they can take that for. but listen backing up for a second, what is the larger message of this fight that elon musk is waging about over openai? >> yeah. look i think. >> elon feels burned. like on personal. >> perspective, i know other. >> very early founders. >> of openai who thought. >> they were funding a. >> nonprofit effort that became something else and feel cut out of the equity in the story and a whole bunch of ways. so i think that's probably a lot of it is just personal. and we are in an age of personalities, for sure. so i think that's part of it. and then look, the i pi, you know, the for the hyperscalers for the really big it is an it is the game of the moment. and what we've seen across the board

these days is that the ways in which people do business, wage war, whatever you want to call it, you know, there's no stop. there are no punches pulled. and this was a very smart move. as my wife's publication, the information reported first, i believe, you know, this does create problems for the openai board trying to do this, this private conversion and probably changes the dynamics there. so look, it's smart. it's a it's a non-obvious move that musk just pulled. and you know we'll see how it plays out. >> you also in this kind of leads us into our next discussion. but you notice and i notice the way that that sam altman responded to this. he responded, kind of like musk would or like trump would. and we've seen this with mark zuckerberg, too. they're they're all taking on more and more personality. >> yeah. well, i think there's a story you i know you've talked about before about founder mode and what does it mean to be a person leading. and there's just this fundamental reorganization that's happening in terms of how businesses function because of frictionless, infinite communication. and what you're seeing is that leaders, you know, cult leaders, community leaders, business leaders are able to just speak directly to

people more directly and more broadly versus working through corporate or, you know, political apparatus. and it's a winning strategy. i mean, that was the trump strategy. it was extremely successful. he's, you know, one of the great media personalities of our age. and i think people are embracing it as that's how things are done in 2025. >> you know, and from an investment point of view, this kind of gets us into your strategy, which is and you've been, you know, into investing in creators for a long time. i would consider myself a skeptic of investing in people, given the track record of investing in athletes over the years and all these different, you know, kinds of things. you know, what were the bowie bonds or whatever anyway? you know, tell me a little bit about how you would go and say to somebody, listen, you're mrbeast. you're one of these influencers now who people are literally getting their news from and follow more than traditional news channels. how do they monetize that? how do investors benefit from that in the long run? >> yeah. so look, i think there's this clear thing that's happened in silicon valley business, building and business. for a long time, the story has been two stanford kids have a product idea, build the

technology first. it becomes successful. that creates a community around it, and then they're able to build more products on top. we're seeing an inversion where what's happening is smart. young entrepreneurs are going out there picking niches that they really care about. it's aviation, it's lawn care, you name it. it's something they're really passionate about. and they build trusted community first and layer businesses on top. you know, mrbeast deserves credit for showing how big that can get and how big it that general creator space is not something we would invest in. it's slow. we're much more into, you know, specific verticals where the creator is able to have sustainable customer acquisition advantage with very high value customers long term. but it's happening everywhere. like there's a new pattern of business building and the job of venture capital should be to follow that. so i'm very happy. you know, we we've been doing this for years and refining the model. just today, this morning we announced our first dedicated creator fund, a $60 million from institutional lps. we're talking mit and michigan. people like that who are seeing that this is

an important thing to start backing, and we want to be first doing it at scale. >> so funny that the colleges are partnering. it's like you're incubators of all these young people. just do it yourselves. >> well, you know, at the end of the day, i think they maybe like some separation, but we, we, we, you know, we're there with them. i think they see, you know, the world changing. we really appreciate their support in these things. and again, they are you know, when you look at venture capital broadly, these are the types of people who do it who are invested in it broadly. it's cool to see that they're willing to back this novel strategy. >> to me, it's just so, you know, let's say you're 17 or 21 years old, you can become big on social media. if you're an athlete, you get nil money. you can have sam invest in your cup. like, this is so crazy to me. the power of these influencers and the money flowing into this space. now, sam, we'll leave it there. but appreciate you joining us to talk about it. >> thanks for having. >> me, sam. lesson with slow ventures. we've got some more breaking news out of washington. let's get back to eamon javers eamon, what can you tell us? >> well, we know that. >> president trump has just

concluded a phone call with russian leader vladimir putin. caroline leavitt, the white house press secretary, is conducting a briefing which is ongoing right now here at the white house. she confirms that the president spoke to putin earlier today. the president issued a post on social media saying that he had a very productive conversation with vladimir putin. caroline leavitt also saying that the president spoke with the ukrainian leader, volodymyr zelensky and that that conversation was productive as well. so clearly ongoing three way negotiations. now, in terms of some kind of grand deal designed to end the ukraine war, whether or not that will be successful, obviously still tbd, but the conversations have now started on a leader to leader basis from here at the white house. caroline leavitt also suggesting that the president is going to announce his plan for reciprocal tariffs tomorrow before the indian leader, modi, meeting here at the white house. so that is something to watch for as well. we've been getting some indication from white house officials earlier in the day that those negotiations were still going on behind the scenes, and it might not be they might not be ready yet to unveil

the full slate of reciprocal tariffs this week or today or tomorrow. leavitt, though, in the briefing room just a short time ago, saying she does expect that announcement to come tomorrow. so we'll see what they're prepared to announce as of tomorrow. obviously, a whole lot of world leader calls on that front as well. kelly, kevin hassett, the national economic council director, telling me earlier today that he's been having calls with foreign leaders. the commerce secretary has been having calls with foreign leaders. all of those discussions ongoing about where those reciprocal relationships will end up. back over to you. >> thank you very much. and the nasdaq turning negative once again as it weighs those kind of dueling headlines of reciprocal tariffs against progress potentially on the war in ukraine. coming up, a surprising name leading the s&p. today it's cvs. the shares are up more than 16% for their best day since 1999. after beating on both the top and bottom lines. shares are also on pace for their best week since march of 2000. echoing the pop, by the way, that we saw in walgreens earlier this month on similar results, the exchange is

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>> this is my. >> legacy. >> welcome back. the nasdaq is back in the red just slightly. but check out meta which is up 6/10 again today. you know what that means. it would extend its record winning streak to 18 days. if it stays here. that's by far the longest of any nasdaq 100 company since 1990. again, could be an 18 day winning streak where it's up almost 19% and we haven't seen that in 30. call it almost 40 years. coming up, wolfe research finding that more than 200 companies have mentioned tariffs on their earnings calls so far this season. and that threat combined with today's cpi print, has tim seymour declaring disinflation is officially over. what that is officially over. what that means for the names (grandpa) i'm the richest guy in the world. (man 1) i have time to give. (man 2) i have people i can count on. (grandma) and a million stories to share. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts.

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plus, ask how to get the new samsung galaxy s25+ on us. >> welcome back to the exchange. stocks are sharing their losses on news. the president has held productive calls with both putin and zelensky, but the white house also saying this afternoon that reciprocal tariffs could come as soon as tomorrow. and those tariffs in part, have my next guest declaring that disinflation is over. he's concerned now that markets haven't priced in the return of

inflation. here. to talk more about how to position the cnbc contributor, tim seymour, cio of seymour asset management. what do you do, tim? welcome. >> well, you know, what we heard in the cpi. >> print doesn't necessarily. >> even. >> begin to factor. >> in what we hear. >> now the eu. ministers griping over and. >> there's going to. be quite a powwow. and yeah, we did hear from a bunch of eu companies, german companies this morning. talking about tariffs. almost anyone. >> who wants. >> to maybe. >> also. >> you know, throw a little kitchen sink. >> out there can throw out the. tariff inflation bar. but that cpi. >> number was was ugly. >> it was. >> ugly because the. >> services inflation. >> is the highest. >> we've seen in. >> years now. but at. >> 5.8% roughly. >> this came in significantly higher. >> and who. >> doesn't see services inflation. >> higher in their lives. >> so the fact is disinflation. >> which was a great trend. it wasn't. deflation and. >> it wasn't back to. >> the. >> fed's target. >> but we were fine with the trend we were on. yeah. now you. >> look. at the core. >> and this is the highest six

month core. we've had in six months. so yeah, i. think disinflation is dead, especially when you consider all the rhetoric and the. >> news flow over the last couple. >> of. weeks is around. >> dynamics that i think are all inflationary. >> and even. >> if big and structurally, we think. >> that near-shoring and all the. >> other. >> things are. >> also. >> inflationary. >> i find. >> it hard to. >> to believe. >> we're. >> going to. >> head back. >> to. >> the trends that were. >> so great. >> last year. >> we just have a second or two, tim. but that made me think by the mag seven and yet at first this morning, the russells were outperforming the nasdaq. >> yeah. look i think. >> mag one and a half as. >> you. know international soaring. >> that's part of the excitement. if the dollar is peaked. and rates have peaked it's stocks. >> are fine. >> we came into this with a lot of complacency. >> yeah. but maybe they go higher now i don't know tim. we're going to have to have you back and talk about it. it's a very confusing day. tim. tim seymour, seymour asset seymour, seymour asset management that's it for us. [ car engine revving ]

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