might. anyway. it's thursday, february 13th, 2025. squawk box begins right now. >> good morning, everybody, and welcome to squawk box right here on cnbc. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernan and andrew ross sorkin. >> we're here. made it to thursday. >> we did. >> market survived yesterday. >> and actually. >> did better. >> than we saw. >> at 830. >> when those numbers came out. >> we did. >> see both the s&p and the dow down for. >> the third. >> session in. >> a row. >> but look. >> it was not the declines that we had seen right at 830. but guess what. we get to do it today again. >> with. >> the ppe. at 830 with the ppi numbers. >> those are words we can't use ppe. >> no, i don't. >> think that's what. >> you said. >> because you already did it.

you already said ppe. ppi ppe. >> you're looking right now at the dow. >> futures up. >> by about 20 points. >> s&p futures. >> are flat. the nasdaq is up by about 30. it comes after the dow fell by 225 points by the end of the session yesterday. the s&p was down by about a quarter of 1%. >> following that. >> hotter than expected inflation data. we'll get another look at this today. we'll see how the market reacts. >> the nasdaq. >> actually eked. >> out a marginal gain by the. >> end of the session. >> treasury yields. >> though, were. >> at their highest levels since january. okay, it's only february. but right now this morning they're. sitting at some pretty heightened levels still. >> the ten. >> year is at. >> just. >> above 4.6%. the two year is at 434. >> and again. >> we'll get a second crack. >> at this and see. >> if this is something that carried out beyond the consumer prices to the producer prices as well. >> but the consumer. >> that was the third straight month of it being hot. >> and we. >> got to a low year over year. >> of 2.4. >> but now we're three again 3%. >> that's that's 5050. >> no that's 33% too high based

on. that's too high. if you. >> want. >> to know it's 50% higher than. >> than the 2%. >> they're trying for. >> well. anybody who was hoping for additional rate cuts this year, that has gotten pushed further back by what we're seeing. >> because. >> it's independent. >> can't believe there's going to be any. >> we'll see though. i mean, look, there could be some seasonal adjustments that we get next month that pull some of this back. >> yeah. >> but we'll see. >> the op ed again in the journal says look at that 50 basis point move was was a mistake. powell knows knows it now. >> that's why he says i'm. >> not in a rush to do anything in long rates have been up ever since that day that they cut. >> the long. >> end since. >> they began. >> since he cut. >> the 100. >> basis points, led to a 100 basis point increase on. >> the long. >> yeah. >> weird. yeah. >> meantime. >> let's see what's. >> going on overnight. >> because it's. >> pretty interesting. >> alibaba's chairman. >> joe tsai, speaking at a summit in dubai. he confirmed a report from. >> the. >> information earlier this week that alibaba is now partnering with apple to roll out ai. >> for iphones. >> that are. >> sold in china. >> those stocks jumping on the back. >> of that.

>> news. tsai saying that alibaba could offer apple a local partner. >> to help. >> it navigate the regulatory. environment as well and localize its ai. so you're seeing a big jump, frankly. >> i mean, i think you can imagine it's. >> going to help. >> both of those guys. >> yeah. >> because that's. >> been a big question for apple whether they be. >> able. >> to continue to compete in china. >> and if you have alibaba. >> the question is whether alibaba's. ai is as good as deep tech. >> or any of the others. >> and there. >> are a bunch of others. >> that i think. >> actually are. a little bit. >> ahead, frankly. >> of alibaba. >> meantime. elon musk, speaking to the same conference in dubai overnight via a video link. here's what he said when asked whether the changes he's implementing as part of the trump administration will last beyond trump's term. >> i think we. >> do need to. >> delete entire agencies as. >> opposed to leave. >> part of them. >> behind, because if you leave part. >> of them. >> behind. >> it's easy. >> it's kind of like. >> if leaving a weed, if you

don't remove the roots of the weed, then it's easy for the weed to grow back. but if you remove the roots of the weed, it doesn't stop weeds from ever growing back. but it makes it harder. >> said a future administration could increase bureaucracy, but it would be from a much lower baseline after his department's cuts are implemented. >> yeah, the point of the i'm still thinking about that inflation stuff, but. >> the point of the piece lead. >> editorial was trump. stow it, stow it with the. the asking for lower rates. >> you know, the. >> the last three months. wage gains have been eaten up. right. they don't care. it's like we're back. where we were, where any wage gains you get from inflation. >> they don't count. >> and it says look you're at 53% now. that's good. you won't be at 53% long if you continue to say cut rates. and put pressure on the fed. >> to. >> to, you know, to cut and like i'm i don't think the republicans need to worry now but they're going to worry at

the midterms. right. if this comes back and you you layer tariffs on. top of what may be residual inflation. >> that we. >> didn't, you know, put to bed immediately. >> talk about. >> ripping ripping it. out at the at the root. >> yeah exactly. >> you have to do with inflation. >> and i don't. >> know if you guys have been listening to the. powell commentary in front of congress the last couple of days. every republican speaker that was questioning him would start with. in my state of missouri. >> the average missourian is. >> now paying $1,100 a month more in inflationary prices. >> for the exact same. >> thing they were doing before. the median income in missouri is $67,000, so that really adds up to a huge chunk, like. $13,000 over the course of the. >> year. >> that they are paying for the exact same. >> goods that they were. >> getting before. and it's. >> that's like. >> every one of them makes that point to powell when they start out. >> and it's just. >> weird that we. >> hear people promising to bring prices down. that's never happening. and we still don't know how to talk. >> about it. >> no one's ever going to bring prices down. you're going to

bring the rate of increase down. you're going to slow the rate of increase, right. >> there's you're. >> not. >> going. >> to. >> bring prices down. >> it's a it's a. >> freaking depression or something. that's the only way that probably happened. you forgot what we were talking about. probably because now it's a separately. >> separately from. >> our from our musk comment. so separately concerning. >> musk. >> lawyers for elon musk said he would withdraw his $97.4 billion. >> bid. >> for openai if the board stopped its conversion. >> to a for. >> profit company. later this hour, we're going. >> to. >> talk to. >> a. >> vc investor, jeff. >> lewis, who has a stake in openai and elon musk's ex, not his little four year old, but x itself. twitter has. >> agreed to. >> pay. >> about $10. >> million to settle a lawsuit that donald trump brought against the company, and former ceo. jack dorsey. it settles litigation. >> that. trump filed when. >> he was kicked off the. platform following the january 6th. >> 2021. riot at the us capitol.

>> musk reinstated. >> trump on the. >> platform in. >> november of 2022. >> and then last month, meta settled a similar. lawsuit over its suspension of trump's facebook account. >> settled it. >> for $25 million. trump's attorneys are. >> expected to. >> pursue a settlement in its case against google, which banned him from. >> youtube in 2021. >> and president trump held a call with russian president vladimir putin yesterday. he described it as. >> productive. >> with both leaders agreeing to visit each other's countries and to open immediate talks to end the war in ukraine. >> i think we're on. >> the way. >> to getting peace. >> i think. >> president putin. >> wants peace. >> and president zelenskyy. >> wants. >> peace. >> and i want peace. >> i just want. >> to. >> see people. >> stop getting killed. we're very far. away from that. >> particular war. >> but that's a. >> vicious war. >> president trump later posted on truth social that he spoke to ukraine's president volodymyr zelensky, who. said he also

wants to make peace. trump said zelensky will meet with vice president vance and secretary of state marco rubio. that's in munich tomorrow. the wall street journal reports that china has been pushing to play a role in facilitating peacekeeping. >> efforts. >> and has offered to hold a summit between trump and putin. it's trump. yeah. trump told reporters that he and putin would probably hold their first meeting on that issue in saudi arabia, in regards to china being a part of this, there are some u.s. officials in that wall street journal report who who said. >> yeah. >> we don't know. because of the close relationship between putin and china. maybe not. >> like, thank. >> you. >> but no thanks. >> we're good. >> yeah. >> we're we're talking. >> look. it would be great to see an end to this war. i think there have been questions from european allies who didn't get a heads up about this. it was posted on truth social before they heard anything. and europe's position has been that ukraine should be involved in any discussions on this. >> the criticism i heard yesterday was that just sort of

the president talking now to zelensky about what you need to do. >> is sort of giving. >> up the ghost of. >> what you're willing to do too soon before you've even told, you. >> know. >> it's. >> almost like saying. >> to putin. >> okay. you know, you did all this already. >> and that's. >> a. >> given that you've done this. so let's start from here and maybe it shouldn't be done. >> and hegseth made some comments yesterday. yeah. defense secretary hegseth made some comments that look it. >> would. >> be crazy. they're not going to be able to be in nato. >> he also. >> well, that's. >> he also said which is. >> probably never. >> but the second part was that the. >> 2014 land that they. >> took, right. >> would be there too, and that it's just not giving ukraine the best leg forward in terms of starting a negotiation on that point to. >> all right. >> meantime, let's talk about what's going on. shares of cisco this morning. they are higher this because. of some earnings that came in $0.94 per share beat estimates by $0.03. revenue coming up about. 9% in the quarter also beating expectations. and that growth following a quarter of revenue

declines. the company said it has orders now for ai infrastructure that exceed $350 million in the quarter. full year guidance also coming in above estimates. and cisco's. >> acquisition of. >> splunk has. >> been. >> one of the bright spots for the company. it bought. >> that company for a. >> member for $27 billion last march. splunk is. >> part of the. >> security unit that contributed now more than $2 billion in revenue, and that's up over 117% year over year. the stock up right now 6%. take a look at shares of robinhood as well. they're higher revenue in the most recent quarter. that more than doubled as revenue from crypto transactions surging. you ready for this? you don't. >> see. >> numbers like this a lot 700% around the us presidential election. you might remember that they were allowing right at the end, they created a. product to effectively bet on the election. but i don't think. >> that was i think it was crypto. >> mostly more crypto than that. average revenue per user, by the way, up 102% year over year to $164, and that stock up about 12% on the back of that news.

kate rooney has got a first on. cnbc interview coming up with the ceo, vlad tenev. he's in san francisco and that's going to be live on squawk on the street at 940 this morning. >> yeah, because. >> individual things. >> can come down in price. eggs got to come down there obviously. >> and i. >> don't you know what. don't get get this bird flu taken care of. i don't want any skeevy bird flu eggs, do you? i mean, it's like, take. >> your time. let's. we can play this. for you. no, no. >> it's $4.87 for a dozen. $2 organic eggs, right? i mean, this is high. >> end, so that'll come down. maybe rents. i mean, gasoline prices, those can come down. but the. individual components can come down. but the overall. look is. >> never. >> part of it. >> housing is a huge. >> housing rent. the rent component. >> through housing insurance, auto. >> insurance, insurance. >> is a huge part of it that's not coming down. home insurance is not coming. >> but some things individually. >> can come down. >> but you never see deflation unless you're really not in a good place. >> coming up, more inflation

data. >> ahead after. yesterday's hot cpi number. predictions straight ahead. then later, montana senator steve daines is going to join us. he's not in montana. he's in live from washington. squawk box will be right back. >> on this cnbc program. is >> on this cnbc program. is sponsored by you know what's brilliant? boring. think about it. boring makes vacations happen, early retirements possible, and startups start up. that's why pnc bank strives to be boring with your money. the pragmatic, calculated kind of boring. something unexpected, all while earning points for free nights earning points for free nights with ihg one rewards with dexcom g7 sends your glucose numbers to your phone and watch, so you can always see where you're heading without fingersticks.

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>> on today's. >> squawk planner. >> more inflation. data after yesterday's hotter than expected cpi. >> the producer price index. >> is due at the same time. >> 8:30 a.m. eastern. >> economists write this down, expecting an increase of 0.3% for the headline number and. >> for core. >> we're also going to get weekly jobless claims. >> and. >> then we'll get some corporate reports. >> from hyatt. >> hotels and. >> molson coors. >> before the opening bell. >> after the closing bell. >> we'll hear. >> from airbnb, coinbase, roku. >> and wynn resorts. and joining us now on. >> the. >> trading day ahead, vince russo, president and ceo. >> of carlisle capital markets. >> good morning. >> good to see you. >> nice to. >> see. >> you. >> too, joe. thanks for. >> having me. >> how was yesterday? >> how did you factor into that. >> number and then go back? that's the third straight. >> hotter than. >> or at least. rising number.

>> and inflation. were you counting on rate cuts this year, vince? >> for. >> your for a bullish thesis. >> yeah joe. >> we. >> look at. >> the trends. >> they're on a longer. >> duration than just a month. >> or two. >> there's always going to be some. >> distortions in the data. >> and frankly. you know when we step. >> back and. >> look at the. capital markets. >> we think that a lot of the. trends for equity. investing are very favorable, right. >> inflation, despite coming in slightly. >> ahead of expectations yesterday i mean, really it was. more or less a rounding error when you carry that. out a decimal point. >> but broadly you. >> see. >> inflation coming from kind of. >> 9% down to the low threes. >> we feel really. >> good about that as equity investors with a longer time horizon. you know economic. >> growth is still sound. >> you know it's not it's not very high. >> but we're seeing growth a strong. >> labor market. we think. >> the deflationary trends. >> that are largely. >> driven. >> by demographics are. >> still intact. and in fact tariffs may play. >> a role in lowering. >> inflation as. >> tariffs potentially play out. and the retaliatory effects of tariffs. >> we're not. >> overly concerned about inflation. in fact, we think inflation will continue to trend down. rates on the short end

could trend down. and that makes. >> us really. >> bullish on equities. >> so there are. >> things other than tariffs. that are. you mentioned demographics. is it is it a pipe dream vince. >> to think. >> that reining in some. wasteful government spending and fraud could, in the long run. >> give us better. >> inflation out? >> a better inflation picture? >> is that is it possible or is that just too. >> much debt? i mean. >> the market couldn't sniff that out early, could it? well. >> joe. >> it seems like there might. >> be, you know, an ample area there for. some savings. >> and i would think that that's good. >> for overall productivity. >> in the economy. >> right. >> so it's never. >> one thing. >> but if you think. >> about the potential. >> for potentially a more. >> lean, you. >> know, government budget, that that. >> seems conceivable. it might be a pipe dream. it might. >> it might take a little while. >> but i think on the margin we'll see some improvements there. i think the bigger. >> driver might be technological innovation. right. as we're all

talking about. ai and the impact that's going to. >> have. >> on the labor force. >> but but. >> ultimately it. >> could be part of that. again. deflationary pressure. increases in productivity. >> so we feel pretty. >> comfortable with with. >> with several of the. >> the underpinnings. >> of. >> equity investing. >> and that's, you know, that's what's. >> had us. >> bullish on. equities for quite a while. >> so even though the fed you know whether they're going to cut this year the degree to which they're going. >> to cut. this year, you know, nothing. >> has seemed. >> to preclude. >> equities from doing well. >> and again you know chuck clouser is our. >> chairman and cio. >> has a long. >> history in analyzing the. >> capital markets here. and we. >> step back at those big underpinnings of demographics. >> what are the. >> trends with balance sheets money supply. >> and this is a. >> really constructive. >> you know, backdrop for equities. >> if the federal. >> government can can pitch in a little. >> bit and find. >> some savings. here or. >> there through the doge committee, i think that the markets would. actually welcome that. >> in the long run, joe. but in the short. >> run. >> i think. >> owning equities. >> makes sense and. >> probably having. some active. >> management exposure. >> and that's. that's talking. >> our. book a little bit. but i. >> think it's important to be a little bit.

>> more nimble right here. look for areas. >> of the. >> market that are doing well and find. >> specific securities that. >> we like. >> the power. >> of, of the. >> internet initially was. >> was underestimated. >> and you think. >> about what that did for inflation in terms of price transparency and. >> amazon things like uber, things. >> that. >> you just look at. it's just that. >> probably gave. >> us part of the reason we had 40 years of, of disinflation since, since paul volcker. >> volcker part of. >> that was technological. >> if the ai if ai is truly as powerful. >> as we. >> hope, maybe you're right. maybe it. >> could be. maybe that could be a very powerful force for productivity without inflation. >> i think we're already seeing it, joe. just anecdotally. >> in our day to day lives. >> you know, we're all using that capability more and you're learning more about the businesses. >> that are. >> integrating ai capabilities into their services. >> it's why when you. >> look at our portfolio and you know etfs. com we're. >> pretty public about what we own and what we like. >> we're migrating towards some of the software type platforms where. >> they have a user base. >> they have a balance sheet. they have a revenue.

>> business model. >> they're generating cash flow. >> and now here. >> they. are layering on some of. >> these ai. >> capabilities to. >> optimize, you know, whether it's delivery. or routing or pricing. power being more targeted. >> and, you know. >> those types. >> of efficiencies play out over. >> many, many years. >> right? there's the. >> there's kind of the knee. >> jerk reaction to rush. >> into the semiconductor. >> companies and the. >> manufacturers, the. >> fabricators, the designers. >> that makes a lot of sense to us in the short run. >> but i think, joe, to. >> your point, you step back and look at the long term implications. >> of this. >> it will. >> touch. >> every. every industry. >> and. every sector, you know, and i don't know about. >> the. analogies to, you know, electricity. >> and the printing. >> press and you know. >> and trains. >> but but. >> it's safe to say that this is one. >> of those. >> generational investment opportunities. >> so whether it's the internet that you mentioned or. >> mobile phones or cloud computing. >> you know. >> here we are again, with an investment opportunity that's going to create, you. >> know. >> some. >> really interesting upside. >> for some of. >> the. >> securities that we follow. >> and of course, it's going to dislocate. >> and disrupt some. >> other companies. again, that speaks to the benefit of being. active and. >> having a hedged. >> portfolio mindset and being able to. >> see. >> where, you know, these

changing tides play out. >> at a sector level and. >> at a company level. >> yeah. >> i didn't call. >> you cliff. >> i knew it was clough, and i knew it was clough, because i remember chuck well, 1999, he left merrill lynch. you believe that 26 years chuck. >> has had. >> two amazing. >> careers on wall street, first as a. >> strategist at merrill lynch. >> which you remember, joe. and now we're managing. >> money at. >> cloud capital now for. >> 25 years on. >> march 1st. >> oh, god. >> yeah. >> so he's from 87 to 99. and i think maybe this is how old i am. i think. bob farrell might. he was the guy when i was there. so that was prior to 1987. so i can even go back further. i can go back to charlie dow, i think. at not quite. >> at. >> merrill, but thank you. dow rhymes with clough, by the way. that's what it had in it, you know. >> all right. good to see you. >> and say hi to him. >> i will. >> he'd love to be. >> on. >> set with you. >> he's still. >> bringing some. >> you know, amazing insights in the capital markets where.

>> you leverage. >> those perspectives. >> to. >> drive our fundamental research. and it's been a pleasure. we would like that. >> ask him what's what's. >> the. >> echo like in that empty. >> office of yours behind you? >> yeah, that's. >> a virtual office. >> and as you might. >> suspect. >> i thought it was just a slackers. but it's a good one. i thought. >> it was. >> a slackers. the slackers that refused to come back. i think it's a good one. i think that's. >> one of the. >> best we've seen in a while. jp morgan rented. >> you that space. >> they got you a lot of credit for. >> that background. >> that's probably. >> one of the best i've seen. >> so how did you. how could you tell? how could i tell? it was fake. yeah. or real. >> to me? >> yeah, it looks real to me. how could you tell? is this. you can tell i'm on zoom. you can. you can tell when things are fake. >> i mean, i know you don't. >> think i can, but talking about a separate issue, talking about something else that's coming up on. >> the other side. >> of this break. >> we've got some other news this morning to tell you about robot maker. >> approtec is. >> getting a new vote. of confidence from investors, including google. the company's co-founder and ceo is going to join us next. >> then. >> later. >> jamie dimon throwing. >> cold water.

>> on an. >> employee petition to reverse the bank's in office policy. >> we will. >> explain and break down the >> explain and break down the battle going on carl: believe me, when it comes to investing, you'll love carl's way. take a left here please. driver: but there's a... carl's way is the best way. client: is it? at schwab, how i choose to invest is up to me. driver: exactly! i can invest and trade on my own... client: yes, and let them manage some investments for me too. let's move on, shall we? no can do. client: i'll get out here. where are you going?? schwab. schwab! schwab. a modern approach to wealth management. (traffic noises) (♪♪) the road to opportunity. is often the road overlooked. (♪♪) at enterprise mobility, we guide companies to unique solutions, from our team of mobility experts. because we believe the more ways

we all have to move forward. the further we'll all go. >> very easy to use. >> i've been able. >> to live my normal lifestyle. >> i've lost 20 pounds already. >> i've lost 20 pounds already. ♪ ("born to be wild" by steppenwolf) ♪ ♪ get your motor runnin'! ♪ (car horns blare) come on! ♪ head out on the highway! ♪ crowd: hey! hey! hey! b-12. bingo! (buttons snap) (inhaling furiously) (explosion) (car revs) (cheering and laughter) (♪♪) don't worry, girls! i've got weathertech. all together: ♪ born to be wild! ♪ to a ball, a club. for whatever comes your way, there's weathertech.

>> and a single purpose. >> it's a release. >> from the noise. >> a respect to the silence. >> of the course. >> we love this game because we need this game. >> straight down. >> celebrates the sound of the game. you know, the timbertech products. compared to wood, it's really the only product that i've personally found that has that look and feel of wood. it's the closest thing to. >> it. >> in the world of composites. >> you just really need to look at it. they've nailed. >> the. >> colors on this. >> there's a. >> great range. >> of color in there. >> the grain pattern. >> the comb look. >> to it is fantastic. >> it doesn't have that like weird plasticky look. >> it just looks. >> like it's supposed to be there. it looks like what you. >> want it to look like. it looks like. >> your investment. >> made sense. >> this is the. >> emirates. >> premium economy seat.

>> economy. perhaps they need. >> to call it something else. >> if you want to manage your own portfolio, learn how i do it. >> jim is such a great teacher. the larger scale is teaching us about the whole economy and how it all fits together. it's more than a. >> club, it's an investment. go to. >> cnbc.com slash join jim. >> new this. >> morning robotic startup africa announcing it has raised $350 million in a series a funding. interestingly participating all of this is google. in that round the company already partnering with google's deepmind to pair the tech giant's artificial intelligence with its robotic hardware. joining us right now in an exclusive interview is the company's co-founder and ceo, jeff cardenas. good morning to you. >> tell us. >> about this. >> for those uninitiated and i. >> and i am one of them. >> i know you're competing with.

>> frankly. >> elon musk and what he's trying to do, but tell us about your robots and. how far you are away from, well. >> us all. >> dealing. >> with robots. >> yeah. well. >> first. >> thanks for having. >> me on. >> i'm a. >> fan of the show. >> so. >> i'm. >> excited to be here chatting. >> with you this morning. >> the news today is. >> we've. >> raised $350 million. >> to. >> scale up ai. >> powered humanoid robots. >> what's happening in. >> robotics is robots are with the power. >> of. >> ai. >> are becoming much more versatile. and we've been working on this for a. >> long time. >> the company's. >> roots are coming out of. >> nasa and working. >> across a variety of different industries. over the years, and now. >> we're getting these robots. >> out into the world. >> in a. >> pretty big. >> way and scaling them up and going from industry and into. the home in the future. >> so currently, who. >> is buying these robots from you? >> so we're starting. >> in the industrial base, largely. working in manufacturing and logistics. >> we've got a big. >> partnership with. >> mercedes-benz and. >> work with.

>> groups like gxo. >> we have a range of. >> different pilot. partners that. >> we've been working. >> with. >> over the. >> years, and we'll make more announcements. throughout this year. >> when does the robot move. >> from. >> being an industrial. >> force. >> if you will. >> to something. >> that is part of our. >> lives and our. >> home or some other place? >> well, i think everybody. >> wants to know when. >> the robots. >> are going. >> to do our laundry. >> that's the number one question that i get. >> so it's going to. >> be a few years. >> for that. >> so we're. >> starting in. >> the industrial base. largely these robots are going. to be. >> separated away from humans. >> working on pretty routine repetitive tasks. >> and as the. >> robots get. >> better and we. >> start to solve. >> safety. >> they become more affordable. they'll start to. enter the. home in areas. >> like health care and elder. >> care, which. >> i'm particularly. >> passionate about. >> what what. >> what are one of these. >> robots. >> cost. >> to. >> to build right now? >> the target prices for these robots to be less than the price of a car. so we've. >> been working over. >> the years. >> we're on our ninth iteration of humanoid robot. as i

mentioned, we started at nasa working on robots that were millions of dollars. >> we've been iterating. >> over the years. >> if you look. >> at. >> a humanoid. >> robot and you compare it. >> to a car. >> there's only about 4% the raw material by weight. >> in a humanoid robot. >> so these robots are going to. >> get much. >> more affordable. >> over time. >> and this is. >> the very beginning. >> of really getting them out. >> into the world. >> in a big way. >> but unless i missed it so. but right. >> now. >> is it? >> you said. >> it's cheaper than a car. >> yeah. maserati. >> the target. the target is to. >> be cheaper than the car. >> they're not. >> they're not there yet. >> not there yet. >> three days. >> yeah. >> yeah, exactly. >> but is. >> that like. >> half $1 million? you're not there yet. >> or is it still $1 million? >> the target. >> price for us. the target price in the very. >> beginning is. >> to be some. $50,000 for. >> a robot. >> so we're not quite there yet. we're still in the pilot phase. >> of. >> these robots, and. >> we're just now starting to scale them up. >> so it's. >> still the. >> beginning of this industry and. >> they'll get much. >> cheaper in the eye. >> the eye. >> piece of this, which. >> is obviously this. >> has. >> you know, cameras. >> all over it and can see stuff. >> is that being built. by

deepmind. >> and google. >> is that being built. >> by you? how does that work? >> yeah, so we're collaborating. with google deepmind. they're working with. our ai. >> team, and we're. >> really pushing. >> forward the. >> boundaries of what these robots can do. so we'll make more announcements and we'll show off a lot. >> of the work. >> that we're. >> doing together. throughout this year. >> so a lot of. >> exciting stuff that we'll show. >> off as we move ahead. >> and how. >> is your. >> it department? who's the. >> it department when. >> this i mean i've. >> got issues with my iphone, my laptop with different things. what happens when this thing goes awry? >> well. >> initially we're supporting these, but we're. >> also working. >> with very large companies. >> that. >> have been using robots for. >> many years. >> and necessarily humanoid robots. >> but they have. many different types of robots. that they're. >> already supporting today. >> so this is. >> another, much more versatile robot. >> that's going to be joining. >> their fleet. >> and so they're we're. >> working together with them to. >> dare i. >> ask. where do you. think you stack rank yourself compared to tesla and whatever elon musk is doing with. >> his humanoid. >> robots from what you've seen?

>> i think we're right. >> there in the race. i think, you know, what this. >> round. >> represents is that our investors are really backing. >> us and. think that. >> we have a. >> real shot at. >> winning this race. >> but, you know, i spent most of my adult. >> life thinking. >> about humanoid robots. we started at nasa. >> over a. >> decade ago. and as a company. >> and have been. >> really iterating and working at the forefront of the field ever since. and so. >> i'd like to think we were doing humanoid robots before they were popular. and what we're really. >> what. >> this round represents. >> is an inflection point, not only. >> for us. >> but for the industry. >> to get. >> these out. >> into the world in a. >> big way. >> and then one last. >> thing, because i know we got to go. you know. >> google had owned boston dynamics at one point. >> which obviously was. >> a robotic company. >> then they. >> spun it out again. >> do you. >> anticipate them trying to ultimately. >> buy you? >> do you think they want to be in the. robotic business eventually because they tried and didn't? >> what happened there? >> well, i wasn't. >> around working. with google. >> at that time. >> so i don't want to speculate. >> but i. >> think. >> you know.

>> this is. >> one of the biggest. >> industries that any. >> of. us are. >> going. >> to see. >> in our lifetime. and so. >> i think it's important. >> for all, you know, large tech companies are going to play a role in this space. and we're in the very early innings of this. so i think. >> google and many others. >> are going. >> to make. >> big bets. and we're really. really excited to partner with them. >> we think. >> they're one of the leaders in this. >> space. >> and we're excited. >> to show off the. >> collaboration and what. >> we're doing throughout. >> the rest of the year. >> jeff. >> next time you're in new york, come on by the human version of you and maybe bring one of the. >> humanoid robots and we'll. >> we'll have a. conversation at the table together. jeff, can you make it look less like the terminator? i mean, i see those guys, and. >> i think they're going. >> to, like, squeeze the, you know, pop my brain out of my skull or something. more like irobot. >> yeah. could they, can they smile or something? or you. >> can smile and you can see. >> a. >> picture of. >> it behind me there as well. >> we've really tried to focus on what we call human. >> centered design. >> so we came out of a lab. >> called the. human centered. >> robotics lab. >> and apollo. >> is here to be a human. >> helper. >> and we're trying to make a

friendly robot for. >> all of us to. >> work and live around. i still see that. remember at the end that the thing on terminator and like, it's completely gone and the arm is still twitching, like still trying to get linda hamilton, just kinder, gentler. >> same thing as the hand. >> but working. but we're working with. >> jeff. >> thank you. >> thank you guys. >> for. >> for. >> havin ♪♪ innovation in health care means nothing if no one can afford it. ♪♪ at evernorth, we're helping to unlock barriers. ♪♪ using our 35 plus years of pharmacy benefits management experience to save businesses billions while boosting medication adherence. helping plan sponsors and their members be at their best. that's wonder made possible. evernorth health services.

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>> good morning. >> welcome back to. squawk box right here on cnbc. we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square. take a look at the futures right now. do have. >> a little bit of green on the screen about. >> 50 points higher on the dow nasdaq up about 50 points as well. and you look at the. s&p 500 up about five points. also take a look at shares of. deere because they are. down sharply right now just after reporting quarterly results. earnings topping estimates. but they were down sharply from the year ago period. and the. >> company. >> feeling the impact of farmers really now renting equipment due to weaker. >> incomes. higher borrowing costs. i mean this is. >> sort. >> of the borrowing costs. >> is a. >> big, big effect here. >> guidance also pointing to more revenue. declines down. >> about 7.5% right now. and it's just another example of some of the. tougher. tougher times. >> certain rates are higher than. >> before, the. >> rates are higher. and if you don't have access, if you're not a large company that has access to some of these things, if you're a small business, if you're a farmer, if you're a consumer, that really is where you feel the pinch. >> i'd miss that run.

>> up. >> to, i mean, deere. >> that's been on a pretty nice trajectory over the last couple of years. oh, i didn't know it was up in the 400 area. yeah. >> all right. we told. >> you. >> yesterday about a push from jp morgan chase workers to retain and expand the bank's hybrid work model. some signed a publicly visible petition calling on ceo jamie dimon to reverse the decision to bring employees back to the office five days a week, starting next month. well. >> if you. >> know jamie dimon, if you followed him at all. >> you might have anticipated. >> his response, which he did give. >> and an. >> animated town hall meeting yesterday. according to a. >> recording that. >> was reviewed. >> by reuters. when he was asked about that petition, he responded, don't. >> waste time on it. i don't. >> care how many people sign that. effing petition. except i don't think he said effing. >> instead, diamond. >> stressed that employees have a. choice whether to work at jp morgan or not. >> dimon said some staff didn't pay. attention during zoom meetings, which. >> reduced their efficiency and their creativity. he said. >> there is, in his. >> words, zero chance that he

will leave in office requirements up to the managers because, he said the abuse that took. place is extraordinary. he asked departments for more efficiency, including 10% cuts in reports, meetings, documents and training sessions. we'd all appreciate that around here. >> the lifeblood of middle. >> management. and they want to cut those things. >> i'm still overdue for training sessions i was supposed to do. >> last year. cut them, cut them, cut them more than 10%. >> i think we all anticipated yesterday when we first heard about this petition, that that might be jamie's response to it. >> yeah. >> sure enough, he didn't disappoint. when we come back, lawmakers preparing for a budget fight in congress, we will take you live to washington next. squawk box will be right back. >> you know. >> currency check is sponsored by interactive brokers. the best informed investors choose

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(♪♪) (orange is peeled) (♪♪) (shower turns on) (children laughing) (♪♪) (shower turns on) (shower water runs) (child laughing) (♪♪) (♪♪) weekdays two. >> eastern. >> cnbc. as a fan. >> when you see this. >> it's all about. >> the numbers. >> we know. >> he wants to hold on. >> to the nba. >> the question really is how much more. >> will he have to pay? >> a lot of the revenue streams are guaranteed. >> team values continuing to soar. the countdown is on. cnbc

sport. official nba team valuations revealed. >> tomorrow. >> in. >> squawk box. >> all right. >> the budget reconciliation bill in the current budget bill that expires in. >> a month. >> are front and center on capitol hill right now. joining us with the latest on these topics and more is axios politics reporter steph kyte. and cnbc washington correspondent emily wilkins. welcome to both of you. >> emily. >> why don't we start with you and just. >> get an update on where things stand. >> the senate and the house see things differently. the house wants one big bill. the senate wants to start moving on some of these issues. and i know there's a movement afoot that they've made more progress at this point and. >> maybe some. >> funding that is necessary. very quickly. what's the. >> latest? >> well, becky, the senate did take the first steps yesterday moving their sort of think of it, i think of it as like a slim thing and then a comprehensive thing. the senate is moving their slim trump agenda through. they did get a committee clearance yesterday. which means

the next step is for it to get a vote on the floor. but the house is really hoping to catch up today. this morning at 10 a.m, the committee is expected to meet and mark up their sort of comprehensive overview. this is the spending, the cuts. but even though it's not the policy details, it's just the top line numbers. it's already causing a lot of angst in the house. i've talked to, and i'm sure steph spoken with as well, a number of sort of hard line conservative members who have said, look, we're glad that there's $1.5 trillion in cuts, but we actually want to see more. there is a provision in there that could get them to 2 trillion. they say they want to see more guarantees around that particular provision. and then you have to consider what else is in this package. i mean, they're putting $4.5 trillion towards extending trump's 2017 tax cuts in the house package and 4.5 trillion. it sounds like a lot, but that actually does not leave a lot of wiggle room for everything that trump is asking for. if you want to extend the tax package for the

next ten years, the maximum time you can do it, that's going to cost around $4.7 trillion. and then if you want to add in things like no tax on tips and, say, raising the salt cap, that's going to cost even more. so at this point, if you're writing the tax bill in the house, you don't have a lot of room to maneuver under this bill. and then, of course, there's just the question of whether or not this house package comprehensive, comprehensive package is even going to be able to have the votes to pass. >> but steph, i. >> know you're. >> reporting looks at what's been happening on the senate. and part of the reason the senate is moving on this is because the white house is pushing them. they need money immediately for border security, right. >> senate republicans heard. from top trump officials. >> this week who told. >> them that they. >> need money now to continue their immigration. >> crackdown. >> especially when you. >> look at ice, which is the agency most in charge of arresting and deporting immigrants who are here unlawfully. that agency has been. underfunded for a very long time. they do not have the resources they need. >> to kind of expand.

>> their work in arrest and. >> deportation, the. >> way that trump wants to. these are very. >> expensive and complicated maneuvers. so they've already gone to senate republicans and told them we need money now. they want. >> that $1.75. >> billion that that is in. >> the senate package. >> they want that now for their border. efforts so that they can start moving faster. and, you know, we. >> heard we heard. >> from lindsey. graham after. >> that meeting. and he. >> said. >> that. he hopes that they. >> say the same. >> thing to house republicans. >> because, of course, this. >> has been the big divide between the two chambers. >> the house. >> wants to make sure they. include everything that trump wants to get done. they think. >> that it's better. >> to just have one shot at. >> doing border. >> doing defense. >> spending. >> doing the tax. package all in one, especially with their very slim majority in the house. >> meanwhile. >> republicans in the senate think it's not worth waiting for the much. >> more. >> complicated debate over taxes. let's move now. move on border, move on defense, on the things that we know are. less controversial, that we can get

done quickly. and we've seen the senate follow through on that, and they've really. >> put pressure. >> on the house to move quickly. of course, this is the closest we've really seen the house to actually having some kind of agreement. and i'll be watching very closely this committee meeting today, especially because the budget committee has some of those key house freedom caucus voices, people like chip roy and. ralph norman, who have been the kind of voices who have. demanded more of this package. and if it gets through committee in the house, it. >> definitely stands. >> a better chance of getting through the house overall. >> steph. >> it's not just the. >> house, though. >> where there are these very tough voices and concerns about the budget. >> in the senate. >> rand paul has said he's not going to vote for any budget reconciliation bill that has. fake payfors in it. is that a complicating factor, or one vote in the senate is not a big deal. >> it could be a complicating factor, mostly because anything the senate passes would have to then get through the house. and rand. paul is a pretty good metric for how some. >> of those more deficit. >> conscious republicans in the. house might be thinking. and

rand paul told me, you know, he he wants to make sure everything is paid for, and he's not going to accept some of the arguments that that some senators have been making that they should count. ending biden's forgiveness of student loans, saying that that they could count that as kind of money saved. rand paul says that doesn't count. that never went into place. so that's not good enough for me. people are very aware of where rand paul stands on this. and senator graham said just yesterday that he thinks they'll get rand paul on board. but, you know, it's not it's not a certain thing. there are still voices in the senate as well, who are very serious about making sure that spending is cut. >> emily, i guess if you're looking for how much sway the trump administration has at this point when it comes to the overall congress body body of congress, you can look to tulsi gabbard being approved as an intel chief for president trump, that that was a very controversial one. it wasn't seen getting passed, but it did indeed get through. >> yeah. and today we've got rfk who's going to be facing his

vote for hhs secretary, another one that folks weren't quite sure about. but he seems at this point on the path to passage. i mean, look, becky, i think one of the really interesting dynamics here as well is what's going to happen if the senate and house are actually able to move their packages, are they able to come to some sort of compromise here? because at this point, speaker johnson has said that the senate bill is a nonstarter in the house. and i am very interested to see if that is the point in which the white house gets involved. trump has really taken a step back on whether he wants the congress to do a comprehensive package with all of his items in it, or whether he wants the slimmed down package. my sense here is that trump just wants a win at some point, and he's kind of looking to see what comes out on top. but i think at the same point, if you get to a point where the house is there package and the senate has, theres certainly some republicans who i've spoken to say they do expect trump to get involved at some point, particularly if there is an impasse and there's

no progress being made to kind of put his finger on the scales and call up republicans like we saw him do during the speaker's race, and make his pitch for why they need to get behind the overall plan. >> okay. >> emily, steph, thank you both. >> okay. coming up. >> a closer look at high. flying stock applovin. it has now soared on the back of ai advertising. >> now that he. >> has to. >> say. >> that half of its business. >> i know. >> i know. >> now it. >> is selling off the. >> other half. >> we'll bring you. >> we'll bring you. >> the details after got eyelid itching, crusties and swelling that won't go away? it could be... demodex blepharitis! and we're demodex mites. we're very common and super irritating to your eyelids... but we love making ourselves comfortable here! oh, yeah...steam time! if demodex mites are partying it up on your eyelids... it's time to eliminate the root of the problem with xdemvy.

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bid for openai. he says he'll drop it if openai commits to remaining a nonprofit. and jeff lewis is going to join us next. he's an investor in openai. squawk box will be right back. >> executive edge is sponsored by at&t business. next level by at&t business. next level moments need the n at&t has a new guarantee. because most things in business are not guaranteed. like a distraction-free work environment. -yeah,i'll circle back around. -get those steps in, kevin. your coworkers keeping things confidential. [phone ringing] oh, she's spilling all the tea. ♪♪ or office etiquette. yeah, that's not guaranteed. i know you can see me! you know what at&t guarantees? connectivity you depend on, the deals you want, and the service you deserve. can i get that logo bigger? or we'll make it right. that's the at&t guarantee.

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now, openai investor jeff lewis. he's a founding and managing partner of bedrock. was it a real bid that there are reports of board but didn't even? it's not even a formal offer. >> it's not a formal withdrawal either. i'm looking. >> at it. right. but it's neither. >> it's neither a. >> formal. >> bid nor do this. >> what we will. >> with what's he want? what's what's behind all this? >> you know. i'm not a mind reader, but he is a he's a brilliant entrepreneur. >> he's one of the most important people on. >> the planet. brilliant innovator. so i certainly certainly wouldn't underestimate him. >> i'll tell you that, joe. >> so were you watching yesterday? you saw the other joe? the richard? joe, joe lonsdale? i think the mission was that it's supposed to be open and it's not. it's done amazing things. if elon would be able to buy it, it would be a great thing. >> for the world. >> you know, look, i. joe's great. i like joe i'd say that as a venture capitalist, you always back the entrepreneurs that you've invested in. joe's backed an investor in elon. i'm an investor in sam. i think. >> they're both phenomenal entrepreneurs.

>> i, i support. >> sam running openai. >> i respect elon a lot. i feel like the world should be big enough for. >> these two entrepreneurs. >> to both coexist, and that it doesn't need to. be zero sum. >> what do. >> you think is really going on then? do you think that elon can see that that he's behind or. >> i mean, look x, i is. >> a formidable. >> product and they're investing a lot of capital. they've got some great engineers working on it. and eli would never underestimate anything elon is doing. but it is clear that openai has become in the united states and. >> beyond. >> in the western world, the default certainly with. >> consumers and with. >> enterprises, it's. >> the default. >> ai product. >> but you can't you can't necessarily. >> take it and go from a charitable situation to an. >> open product. >> that is for profit. and i mean, this is one page. this is not a very deep lawsuit or anything that goes into it. >> you're violating. >> the charitable obligations. >> and there are. >> already attorneys general in california and delaware that.

>> are looking into this. >> you know, it's been. >> it's been a. >> checkmate sort of move. >> it's been a capped profit. i don't think it's a checkmate move. it's been a capped profit for many years. i don't think elon had major problems with this until it started massively working. i didn't hear anything from him in the public sphere, at least prior to the launch of chatgpt. >> in 2022. >> so it seems like this has. >> only become. >> an issue for him as it started to work. and i think it's for the courts to decide, can this conversion. go through? >> let me pause an. idea with you. yeah. >> the idea. >> being that last week it. >> appears that he's. >> losing in court. >> to try. >> to. >> overturn. >> to. >> try to. >> prevent the for. >> profit piece. >> of this. >> from from happening. >> the judge says it's a quote stretch. >> the case. >> is a stretch. >> he says to himself. >> okay. >> we're going to now try to make a bid. >> for it. >> knowing relatively. >> full well. that the board is going to say no, but i'm going to put. >> a. >> floor on the price that the not for profit ultimately is has

to get. knowing that the attorney general's in delaware and california, their their only real responsibility as that transaction relates to that transaction. >> is to say. >> that the not for profit ultimately has to get fair value. and one of the ways to get fair value. >> would. >> be to look around and say. >> well. >> this guy is offering this. so that. >> would establish fair value. >> i have. >> a view which is. >> actually that nobody is going to look at the metric of. >> the. of that offer. >> because they're going to say there's no credibility in truth to. >> the actual price. >> of. >> that offer. >> given all the other. >> lawsuits and other. >> things they're going to. >> say, we know this is all part of this other effort. what do you think of that, that framing? >> i think that's a i think that's a valid a valid hypothesis. >> you know, i think. >> elon's got a syndicate of investors behind him. joe from eight vc, gavin baker also those those guys might be able to help elon get the 97 billion or something. and you know, who knows. >> and i. >> say the ag. >> discounts that not discounts their their involvement because

of the ecosystem that most of the people who are involved in this, as you said, you backed the entrepreneur. they're all invested in all of the other assets that elon owns. largely, yes. and so do they say to themselves, you know what? it costs me nothing if he doesn't win. and by the way, i get brownie points and i'll be. >> able to get into the. >> next round of funding for spacex and everything else. if i if i do this and if he wins, he'll figure out a way to make me whole in the same way that even if in the x case or twitter now, you know, it didn't totally work out or it hasn't worked out completely. but he's, you know, he's given them 25% of x, i, i mean, like there's lots of moving parts that you can move around. >> yeah, i think that's. >> i think that's a sound theory, andrew i think for me this all just underscores. how impressive what openai has achieved over the past few years is. i mean, the fact that all of this maneuvering is happening to try to take control of this organization is really unprecedented in business. >> what do you make of the fact

that of all the companies, so many others. >> are. >> better, better capitalized? so amazon's better capitalized. google's better capitalized microsoft. if you think they go on their own eventually better capitalized, and that sam is going to have to continue to find funding like over and over and over again to make this work. >> you know, it's getting it's. getting less capital intensive in some ways. certainly on the training side, it's getting less capital intensive. i think a lot was said, you know, president trump's first full day in office, the oval office was president trump. sam altman, masa from softbank and larry ellison. and you know, those those those businessmen have access to a lot of capital. so i'm not worried about sam's ability to keep capitalizing openai. >> okay, jeff, thank you. >> so there's room for two. there's not enough room for ten. but how many. >> there's there should be room for dozens. and look, i mean, elon is transcendent. i believe sam is a young, emerging, extraordinarily talented

entrepreneur. and i, i really hope that we can find room on this planet for both of them to coexist. it feels like we should be able to do that. >> do you think. >> there's a way to settle. >> the situation? >> i believe there is, yes. >> what would what would that take? >> i think it i think it comes down to those two individuals. i think they have. >> to. >> figure it out. a stake in it. is that. because he's still mad? because he invested the money? >> look, from my vantage point, he absolutely should. he he did co-found it. he came up with the name. he was instrumental in getting it started, i think. >> i don't. >> think anyone's debating that. i don't think sam's debating that. i think if elon wanted a stake in it, i think openai would be open to open to accommodating that. that's my hypothesis. right. >> okay. thanks. yeah. >> thank you. thank you all. >> it is. >> just now after 7 a.m. on the east coast. you're watching squawk on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and becky quick among today's big stories. elon musk speaking at a conference in dubai overnight. he was doing that via a video link about the government cuts. his doge department is working to implement. here's what he said.

>> i think we. >> do need to. delete entire agencies as opposed to leave. >> part of them behind. >> because if you leave part of. >> them behind. >> it's easy. >> it's kind of like. >> leaving a weed if you don't remove the roots of the weed, then it's easy for the weed to grow back. but if you remove the roots of the weed, it doesn't. >> stop. >> weeds from ever growing back. but it makes it harder. >> president trump holding a call with russian president vladimir putin as well yesterday. he described it as both productive. talking to both leaders, agreeing to visit each other's countries and to open immediate talks to end the war in ukraine. president trump later posted on truth social that he spoke to ukraine's president, as well as vladimir zelensky, and said that he also wants to make peace and talked about actually having a meeting with putin in saudi arabia. meantime, alibaba's chairman, joe tsai, confirming a report from the information earlier this week that alibaba was partnering with apple to roll

out ai for iphones sold in china, saying that alibaba could offer apple a local partner to help it navigate the regulatory environment and localize its ai. >> all right, let's take another check on the futures this morning. >> things are. >> relatively calm and quiet ahead of that big reading that we're going to be getting at 830 for. producer price inflation after the hotter than expected cpi number yesterday. >> right now it looks like the dow. >> futures are up by about 17 points. nasdaq indicated up by five. s&p futures down by less than three points. want to get over to frank holland. he's got a look at this morning's pre market movers. and frank what are you seeing. >> hey good morning becky. we'll start off with an earnings mover. that's cisco moving higher after raising its full year sales forecast. see the big jump on earnings right here. shares up about six and three quarters of 1%. the company also delivering stronger than expected results for its most recent quarter saying they saw rising demand for routers and switches both key components for data centers as companies continue to invest in ai. cisco also commenting on tariffs, saying they're guiding for gross margin contraction because of

possible tariff impacts. again, shares up just about over 6.5% right now. also looking at robinhood, those shares surging after a beat in q4 profit that was fueled in large part by stock and crypto trading after trump's election win. you can see shares are up just about 13% right now. the company also said platform fee revenue that soared 236% in the quarter. and then on the earnings call, ceo vlad tenev. he highlighted opportunities in prediction markets and event based trading, including in sports. again, you can see shares are up over 12% right now. week to date shares up 12% as well. and also coming up later here on cnbc on squawk on the street ceo vlad tenev. he's going to speak about the quarter and much more. this morning we're also looking at shares of reddit. different story there. those shares sinking after reporting weaker than expected user numbers for the fourth quarter. you can see shares are falling over 11.5% right now. the company says a new google search algorithm that caused some volatility in user growth, but that growth has since recovered. still, the average revenue per user came in 7% higher than estimates. so again, shares pulling back over

11% right now. but just to keep this in perspective, since its ipo shares up over 460%. back over to you. >> yes. excellent point frank. thank you. we'll see you in just a little bit. >> coming up, we're. >> going to get a rundown on. >> the markets ahead of today's producer price index, which comes out at 8:30 a.m. and montana senator and finance committee member steve daines pushing to keep the trump tax cuts permanent for good, not just a ten year extension. he's going to join us in the next half hour to talk about that. and also, we're hearing now the prospect of reciprocal tariffs, other things we'll talk about football. and that release because the. senator was working on that for years. squawk box will be right back.

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five years? -nope. comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. powering five years of savings. powering possibilities. comcast business. we're waiting for. >> that. producer price index. >> it's going. >> to be released at. >> 8:30 a.m. >> this morning. that's just over an hour and 15 mites away. it does come after yesterday's hotter than expected consumer price numbers. futures this morning. >> are flat. >> ahead of all of this. it's kind of a wait and see. you remember yesterday the. futures really took a big turn down after that hotter number came out. i think the dow. was indicated off by more than 400. points in pretty quick fashion. >> this morning. >> the dow is up by three and a half. the s&p is down by five and a half. the nasdaq is down by less than five. joining us right now with more on the markets is emily rowland. she is co-chief investment strategist at john hancock investment management. and so i guess the immediate question, emily, is

what do you anticipate coming from the ppi. and what do you think the market's reaction will be if the number is hotter than expected? >> yeah. market moving number, i would point to the response to the cpi report yesterday that was pretty notable. there was a pretty sharp move initially. and then equity markets really started to take it in stride. >> we saw. >> that back up in bond yields calm down a little bit. there's been this almost asymmetric response. to inflation where as it came in hotter. markets pretty much shrugged it off. there may have been some pricing in of this. >> before the. >> report, given the potential. for tariffs to be inflationary. but think back to last month. inflation data came in softer by a rounding error 0.002%. and markets loved it. we saw bond yields fall. risk assets rally. >> so it's. >> almost like markets are expecting higher inflation here. but any relief from a softer inflation print is going to cause bigger moves. so that's what we'll be watching with that ppi report this morning.

>> that's interesting. >> you think the bigger move would be if it was a softer number, that the markets would then do what skyrocket at least equity markets. >> i think because of the sensitivity to bond yields you'd see bond yields falling and then you'd see equity markets responding positively. >> to. >> that okay. that's a good thesis and something to watch for. we do have commentary from president trump on truth social this morning. >> just that the. >> retaliatory tariffs are coming, that today is the day i guess we'll hear some more information later. get more details on this. >> how how. >> have you been thinking about that? how have you been factoring that into your expectations for the market this year? >> yeah. >> we don't make tactical moves based on potential political outcomes. it's really hard to do that. it's tough to handicap it. and things can turn on you really, really quickly here. >> so we're. >> trying to be thoughtful. we're trying to be thinking longer term and we're thinking about earnings. the macro has been and. >> the. >> political backdrop have been. taking center stage. but one of the most underappreciated things going on is s&p 500 earnings.

we're coming in at 16% year over year growth for the fourth quarter. and the. great news is it's broad based. it's not just technology companies. we're seeing areas like. >> health care and utility. >> stocks seeing double digit earnings growth. financials up 50%. so the earnings engine in the united states is on right now. and that's very positive. what we are seeing though is this massive capital. migration into. european equities. it's momentum. >> it's potential. >> algorithm driven. we're seeing. big price moves in europe even though the economic and earnings data aren't that great there. so we would resist leaning into those lower quality parts of the market. that is the trade to start 2025 and redeploy assets into us markets where we are seeing better relative earnings and better relative economic growth. >> i like that approach. kind of keep your head down, keep the blinders on and focus on what's really coming out from the companies themselves. when you do that, what are the most

attractive areas in the market? what do you like the most? >> yeah, so. >> we're continuing. >> to look at. >> areas like healthcare in the united. >> states. >> which are now that sector is trading becky, at a 20% discount to the broad market. it's got great quality characteristics, elevated return on equity, great balance sheets, lots of cash. healthcare notably tends to outperform in the first year of a republican administration as well. part of that is because analysts pricing the potential negative impact to earnings early on, and then that worst case scenario does not materialize. so that's one of our favorite sectors. yeah, industrial companies in the united states. we think if. >> you want to. >> look to add cyclicality to portfolios, they. continue to benefit from onshoring activity supply chains coming back to the united states and the manufacturing renaissance. we continue to see in the u.s. >> okay. >> but i mean, i. >> get your approach of just look at where the numbers are coming from. but then you said every reason that you like these sectors are because of what's happening in washington, too. so i guess it's hard to not focus

on what's coming out of washington no matter what. >> fair enough. >> fair enough. >> tariffs are a perfect example. last week, you know, putting hours into putting together a piece for investors to use to think about modeling the tariffs on canada and mexico. and then, you know, six hours later having that be moot. so i think. >> it's that is. >> challenging on the shorter term. >> for sure. >> right. >> like don't chase. >> every single. phone call news lead out there and every phone call and every not tweet but every post on truth social. look for the broader themes and stick with those. emily thank you. it's good to see you this morning, becky. >> you too. >> okay. coming up, we are on the cutting edge of household appliances. the ceo of sharkninja is going to break down the quarter. and he's going to tell us how tariffs will impact his business, given where much of them are made. and check

out the stock up nearly 130%. this stock has been a real winner over the last year. stock. squawk box coming right back. >> time now for today's aflac trivia question. who was the first nfl player to announce. i'm going to disney world after winning the super bowl? the answer when squawk. answer when squawk. >> box ♪ (action music) ♪ woah! i can't do it! agh! cut! this gap! it's just too big. bring on the double! aflac! after my hospital stay, aflac helped close the gap by paying me cash for expenses health insurance didn't cover. nothing covers gaps better than the aflac duck. aflaaaaac! aflac. get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. find an agent, get a quote at aflac.com. ywhat if you coulde. invest in a future where skin cancer treatment is noninvasive and relatively painless? medicus pharma's groundbreaking solution delivers chemotherapy directly to the tumor site, offering a mostly

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and now, the answer to today's aflac trivia question who was the first nfl player to announce i'm going to disney world after winning the super bowl? the answer phil simms of. >> the. >> new. >> york giants. >> in 1987. >> welcome back. >> to. >> squawk box. shares of sharkninja are moving higher this morning. the appliance company posting better than expected earnings and revenue for the full year. sharkninja expecting revenue growth in the range of 10 to 12% versus estimates of 12.4%. the earnings in the range of $4.80 to $4.90 a share. expectations at $4.87. the company said the guidance included a 10% addition in terms of the tariffs on imports from china. this stock has been on the move as a big winner over

the past year. it's been quite a remarkable thing to watch. joining us first here on cnbc is mark barajas. he is sharkninja ceo. good morning to you. can you keep this going. i mean the stock i don't know it's been on a as i said like a straight line. and it hasn't been a straight line up. but it's been up in a big way. >> well shark. >> ninja's viral innovation has really created a global, loyal fan base that's fueling both top and bottom line growth. i mean, we had a great fourth quarter. we grew our business 30% on the top line. we grew at 32% on the bottom line. that continues 16 years of compounded annual growth for shark ninja 21%. and as you pointed out, you know, we've already advised, you know, very strong guidance, double digit growth that we're expecting in 2025. so we feel like our pipeline of innovation is really exciting. consumers are excited about it. and we're

we're excited to head into the year. >> on the tariff front, because i think that's something that everybody is worried about. what are you doing ahead of it? i mean, we can't get ahead of it at this point. i mean, just how do you see the impact and are you doing anything to change? it? >> well. >> look. >> tariffs are nothing new to us. i mean, we've been navigating through tariffs now for since trump 1.0. i mean tariffs have been in place on 35% of our us production really for the last five years. and so step one is by the end of q2, we will have moved 90% of our production outside of china and diversified our supply chain considerably. so that's step one. you know, step two is, you know, we have a really scaled global supply chain. so we're working on driving down costs, value engineering, doing everything we possibly can to make sure that we don't have to pass costs along to the

consumer. that is a very, you know, sensitive right now with the inflationary challenges that consumers have had. so it's uncertain times. we've been great at navigating uncertain times, whether it's tariffs or covid or inflation or component exposure. so we feel like we're in a very good position. and as you said, within our guidance, we've included all the latest tariffs in that guidance and are still expecting ebitda growth of 13 to 15% this year. >> you have been a fair enough to say, a viral sensation in large part in places like tiktok. have you factored into the world what happens if tiktok goes away? >> the content. creator community is alive and strong. tiktok is only one platform that us and the content creator communities are, you know, communicating out about our products. meta is tremendous for us. youtube. we're growing on

reddit. we're growing on pinterest. so regardless of what happens with tiktok, we believe that we are content creators and the user generated content that's developed by our consumers is going to find a place to be able to communicate the excitement about our viral products. as you point out. >> are you betting, though, that tiktok goes away or not? look. >> it's out of our control. i mean, it's hypothetical, but i can tell you that there are enough other platforms to be able to that will pick up, you know, all of that content. if tiktok does go away. i'm very confident. i'm excited about the growth of youtube. i'm excited about the growth of reddit and other platforms will emerge. you know, if the tiktok void happens. >> what's what's the hot new product we should know about? for those of us playing at home? >> well, i mean, so actually yesterday we just launched a product called the creamy swirl. it's our next generation creamy

product that delivers soft serve ice cream on your countertop. we had 90,000 people on the waiting list for that product before the product even launched. there were 75 million social media impressions. on our first day, we nearly sold out of the product. that's a really exciting product for us. we're disrupting the outdoor cooking space. we have a product called the ninja flex flame. so instead of having to think about whether you want a grill or a smoker or a griddle or a pizza oven, this product does everything under one hood. we've got 25 new products that are going to be launching this year into the market, across a whole bunch of different categories, and i'll plug one more for you as well. we just launched in the us our first fda approved product called the shark cryo glow. it's an led infrared cryo face mask, and it's going to be available at all the major beauty retailers as we head into the second quarter. >> can i ask one question? just

as a i'm a consumer of some of the ninja products. we have a bunch of them. they're like super competitively priced relative to your competitors. i mean. >> like dyson. >> it's a lot cheaper than them. and my question is because i don't i haven't had it that long. some of these things, do, they hold up as long or as part of the sort of value proposition you're going to own it for a couple of years? it may not work after a couple of years, but you're going to buy a new one. >> well, we built our business, you know, one five star review at a time. if you go online and you look at reviews for shark and ninja products, it's about market leading performance, consumer disruptive innovation, high quality, reliable products, but at a great value. look, we're not the lowest priced products in the market. we're not the highest priced products, but we move the opening price consumer up into our brands. and we're also the brand of choice for premium consumers as well. so we've really built our business off of quality and reliability. >> well the stock is clearly

working mark thank you. appreciate it. >> thanks so much. >> all right. >> coming up more of today's. >> stocks to watch. >> check out the shares of deere. falling after. >> earnings that topped estimates. but we're down sharply from the year. >> ago period. >> the company feeling the impact of farmers renting equipment. >> instead of. >> buying due to weaker income. >> and higher borrowing costs. >> guidance also pointing. >> to more revenue declines. >> squawk box will be right back. >> the number. >> of public. >> companies is shrinking, while the number of private companies is increasing. at franklin templeton, we are expanding access to the growing opportunity in private markets,

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that listing, with secondary listings in london and new york, but you can see the stock for unilever. it was down by about 6.8%. >> coming up, senate finance committee. member steve daines. on the letter that. he and. other senators are sending to president trump and house leadership, try to make the tax cuts. the original 2017 trump tax cuts permanent. squawk box tax cuts permanent. squawk box coming right back. help us retire. it's a simple ask of our elected leaders. but the tax treatment we rely on to grow our 401(k)s, iras, and other retirement plans could be on the chopping block in congress. any policymaker who makes it harder to save for retirement is standing against the financial well-being of 120 million americans. it's time to prioritize our retirement savings. learn more at help us retire dot org.

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investor. >> jim cramer. >> is. the best. teacher that i've ever. >> found because he's. honest and. >> he's transparent. >> get invested. join the club today. go to cnbc.com. slash join jim. >> there's a. >> letter. out this morning from several senators to president trump. speaker mike johnson and house ways and means chair jason smith is pushing for the tax cuts and jobs act to be made permanent in the senator's right. we will not support a tax package that only provides temporary relief from tax hikes. joining us now, republican senator steve daines. he took the lead on the letter as a member of the finance committee. and you've. got some good

company here. senator. you got majority leader thune and crapo. barrasso, blackburn. all have signed. i remember the first time this went through. you remember. that for budgetary reasons, it was only going to last for so long. it was kind of that, you know, the way to sort of fit in. >> to, you know, budget worries. >> and. >> deficit worries. >> made it. what's the word i'm. >> looking for? it was. >> going to sunset. should it not have been done that way. >> look at all. >> the. >> time we spent. >> talking about what to do. >> once these things expire. now. maybe that was a mistake in the first place. hence why you want to make them permanent now. >> well, i hope. >> we can learn from our mistakes. the single most important thing congress can do. to keep this. economy growing is. >> to make the. >> trump tax. >> cuts of 2017 permanent. >> small businesses. >> corporate america. >> face a.

>> $4.3 trillion. tax increase. >> coming if. >> we don't act. and that starts next year. >> permanence is. >> a way. >> that. >> we can. >> take away the uncertainty of. what goes on in. >> washington, the. >> burden we. >> place on. >> businesses across our country. >> and i. >> talked. >> in. >> fact, to a small business owner yesterday. >> from montana. >> and she. >> said this. >> 30% tax increase. >> that. >> will be coming next. >> year is really freezing. >> her planning for. >> her business. when you look at what we need. >> to do to. >> invest long term. >> in research. >> and development capital investments to compete globally. >> the most. >> important thing we can do is take away the uncertainty. >> of washington. >> and make. >> the trump tax cuts permanent. >> it's a. >> does it make a lot of sense. >> to the. >> normal person when you say, okay, you know. >> we're going out. >> ten years and we. need to. >> pay for. >> what hasn't even happened yet in terms of what what we spent. but regardless of it's hard to

understand. it would be expensive to make them permanent. that's why some. i there's people trying to. >> do it for ten more. >> years to keep it within some budgetary constraints. you acknowledge that it's hard to do the tax on tips and social security and maybe some of the other things. if you go full out on making these permanent, it. >> doesn't leave a lot of room for. >> all the other. >> things that president trump. >> has said he would like to do. >> well, i'm open, and i think many of the. members of the committee that signed this letter are. >> open to. >> turning the knobs. >> and adjusting. >> the tax policies a bit to make. >> this work. but permanence. >> has to. >> be the position that we start with. we've got to remove this uncertainty because this is about global competitiveness. >> remember back in. >> 2017 when. >> we lowered. >> tax rates. >> the. >> chinese followed suit. >> they can see what. >> we. >> were doing here. this is. >> key to. >> spurring economic growth. it's key. >> as well to spurring research and development the innovation needed here to compete. keep in

mind, though, for every 1% increase. >> in gdp. >> over that. >> ten year window. >> it's about a. $3 trillion. >> increase in tax revenues. >> that goes back to the basics. >> when you spur. >> the. >> economy by. >> lowering taxes. >> you actually. increase tax revenues. >> and that's one of the. problems with the scoring methodologies. >> here in washington. >> they're not. >> dynamic in nature. >> they're static in nature. and it. understates what. >> the revenues will be. >> by lowering taxes. >> and we saw. >> that proved. >> with. >> the tax. >> cuts in 2017. >> senator. are you an optimist about we talk about doge every day. everyone does. and i'm sure it's you know it's talked about in dc as well. are you an optimist that that could give the federal government some leeway if there was a lot of fraudulent and wasteful spending found, maybe it would give some breathing room for some of the things that you're talking about that you'd like to. include in reconciliation. >> no doubt about it. every day we. >> learn something new.

>> what elon. >> is. >> doing with doge. >> it's remarkable. they're uncovering. >> databases that. >> are. >> showing individuals not. >> eligible for some of these entitlement benefits. people who. >> have died or their. >> checks are still being sent. elon musk is tallying a pretty big bar tab. >> right now in terms of the. >> savings he's going to deliver. >> to the american. >> people. >> this massive. >> bureaucracy the federal government needed to be overhauled. >> i thank god every day. >> for president trump's. >> leadership. >> what elon musk is doing and. >> his team, the american. >> people, sent president. >> trump to washington. to stir. >> this. >> place up. >> it reminds me a lot of a of a. >> startup ceo. >> i spend a lot of time in the. >> private sector as part. >> of a. >> startup. >> a. >> company that took. >> public and eventually. >> sold to oracle. >> and i'll tell you. you look at. >> the way trump's. >> managing kind of that. break fix cycle. >> they jump in, they take action. they don't have it quite right. they take corrective action. >> and literally. >> every day there's. >> something new. >> and this had. >> to be done. >> very. >> very thankful for elon. >> and. >> his team. >> i think the american people are. >> thrilled to. >> see what's happening here, to start.

>> to, to. >> to. >> tighten up and. >> remove a. >> lot of this. >> wasteful spending. >> that we've always. known existed here in washington. >> senator. >> i don't know if. >> you've weighed in on marc fogel's release, but. >> i know you had a great. >> interest in making that happen. i think he had some family in montana as well. not not not just pennsylvania. looking into the details of it was a little bit. >> shocking to. >> me that he wasn't even classified by the biden administration. >> as wrongfully detained. it didn't even come out until december. in the bureaucratic foot dragging at the. >> state department almost looked. i wouldn't say intentional. >> but. >> what do you attribute? you tried your best. and then it happened. you know, very quickly under president trump what went on. can you can you bring us up to date on on why that happened and it took so long. >> joe. leadership matters. look. we were working very. >> hard on. >> behalf of marc fogel. >> and his family, his sister anne. >> they have a place. >> in montana. >> got to know marc's.

>> sons as well. >> and we were. >> working with the state. >> department with secretary. >> blinken. >> but to no avail without a result. just remarkable. once again, the results that president trump. >> can deliver. >> he stepped in. it goes back to ronald reagan and peace through strength. >> the world knows that a strong leader. >> now occupies. >> the oval office. >> is through that strength of president trump, his administration. very grateful for marco rubio, for steve witkoff, those who were involved. behind the scenes to free. >> marc fogel. >> what a joyous reunion that was to get marc back on. on us ground. >> just grateful for the. >> fogel family. >> same charge as brittney griner. >> he wasn't famous. he wasn't a celebrity. i mean, that's all i can attribute it to. >> that you don't. >> get you bang for your buck, is that it? i mean, he was. can you he was. >> he was a teacher. >> look. >> he was a teacher. >> and he. >> was embracing, you know. >> maybe. >> woke ideologies that you saw. >> with brittney griner. it was political in nature. he was. >> a teacher. >> of many american.

>> families that were expats. >> in moscow. >> in fact. >> my debate partner from. >> high. >> school, mike. >> mcfaul. >> was the ambassador to russia under barack obama. we both grew up in bozeman, montana. mike mcfaul and i. and mike's more of a democrat. i'm a republican. we're working together with the. biden administration. >> to no avail. >> i want to thank my debate partner, mike mcfaul. >> for his help to, but. >> thank god for what president trump did. all i know. >> is marc fogel's home. >> we're very, very thankful. >> and it'll. >> be. >> a very warm weekend for the family. >> and a. >> joyous reunion. >> hey, senator, i want to ask you a different question. you've been very outspoken about this idea of weaponizing the legal system during the biden administration, this idea of lawfare. and in fact, you've said repeatedly that trump was somebody that you believed was not going to engage in lawfare. it was going to be the end of lawfare in america. and i'm curious just what your reaction is both to the lawsuit that pam bondi, pam bondi brought

yesterday against kathy hochul, and then separately, the governor of new york, of course, and then separately, the decision to end the case against mayor adams, very explicitly, a political decision where they said that they were ending it, not because they were making a judgment at all about the law, but about his ability or trying to use him to end some of the legal immigration in the state of new york. and not only that, but they were doing it with with prejudice so that they could actually bring a case against him in the future, which unto itself, to some degree puts him under the thumb of government. >> yeah. >> well. >> look. >> i mean, the american. >> people can see through what happened over the course of the last several. >> years with president. trump in. >> facing all. >> these indictments. >> and the courts. >> across the country, the american people got to weigh in at the ballot box. they have the ultimate say in. president trump was. >> elected overwhelmingly.

>> of course, not only by popular. >> vote, but also. >> the electoral college landslide. the american people. >> could see through this. ultimately, the. people get to be. >> the. >> judge and the. >> jury in terms of. >> elected officials. >> and president. >> trump is. >> following through with promises made, promises kept, and there was no doubt that he was going to go after those. >> individuals that wrongfully. >> went after him. and he is he is. >> evening the. >> score right now. and the american people could see through what happened. i thought that you said that he wasn't going to even the score. that's i thought and pam bondi said she wasn't going to even the score that that wasn't part of what this was about. that was very explicitly what people said on the record prior to all of this. and i think that's, by the way, just to the american public, whether republicans or democrats, irrespective of what they voted for, there were certain you said promises, promises made, promises kept. the promise made was actually that lawfare was going to end in america. so let's let's well, i'm stipulating with you that it was terrible before. >> yeah. well. >> look. >> i when you take a look at the

you've got a strong leader. >> in president trump, you've. >> got. >> a strong. >> leader in general, attorney general. >> pam bondi. >> they look at the facts. >> of these cases. they will take. >> the. >> action they believe is necessary in terms. >> of the oath to the constitution. on on the mayor adams case, they explicitly and this is why i'm asking you. i'm just asking you as a human and as a senator, what you think they explicitly said they weren't looking at the facts of the law. that was what was so interesting about it. they said on the record, this has nothing to do with the law we're stopping. this case has nothing to do with the law. what do you, as a senator and as an american, think about that? yeah. well, look, ultimately, i will tell you, i trust the judgment of our commander in chief. i trust the judgment of the cabin he's put in place. and as. >> they move. >> forward and they will have strong opinions. look, president. >> trump did not put in place. >> a bunch of cabinet members here who are weak. they are very. >> very. >> strong and forceful. and frankly, this. >> position of strength. >> that. >> president trump has. >> put us back in as commander. >> in.

>> chief is. >> the reason. >> why you're seeing amazing things happen. >> around the world. i think there's. >> more optimism now in. >> selling what's happening in ukraine than ever before. >> what's going on right now in israel? president trump. >> is actively. >> engaged right now with xi jinping in china. >> and so. >> this is because he's strong. there's people going to. >> agree with. >> some of the. >> moves he makes. >> some will disagree. >> the point is he's. >> a very. >> strong president. >> all right. >> thank you. >> as a senator and as a human senator. >> daines good. >> to do. >> good to have you on this morning. >> and a. >> member of the finance committee. we'll we'll run all the way down the list. talk about. >> all. >> the things anna montana, great montana and i think michigan or i'm sorry, montana state grad, right. >> i am a montana. >> i am a proud bobcat. >> didn't they. >> they they. >> won again this year didn't they? or the. well they well they yeah, they pitched. >> a perfect. >> game until the national championship. we lost to the north dakota. >> bison okay. for the national. championship by three points. but they had a great season. >> sorry. i knew you made it. i knew you made it. but then. i maybe i didn't know how it how

it turned out. all right. to those those wacky bisons. all right. thank you. we appreciate. >> it senator. >> and we're going. >> to pick up. >> on tariffs and more with commerce committee ranking member, maria cantwell at 8:10 a.m. eastern squawk box coming right back. >> at ihg. >> hotels and resorts. you can stick to the agenda or experience something unexpected, all while earning points for all while earning points for free nights with ihg one rewards when i started walton goggins goggle glasses, i had no idea what i was doing. but godaddy airo does. using ai to build a logo, website and social content. so i can let the world know, if your goggles ain't goggins, they don't belong on your noggins! why are so many legendary investors quietly ignoring that advice and instead selling the

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>> get it done. >> president trump's department of government efficiency moving through the executive branch, accessing computer systems, firing workers, highlighting what it claims to be waste. but is it breaking things or actually helping? that has been the question a lot of folks have asked. and john ford is here to weigh in on both sides of it. >> hey, good morning andrew. well, the department of government efficiency is absolutely helping put all the politicized hand wringing about elon musk and president trump aside for a moment. if you read the executive order that established d.o.j, it makes a lot of sense. this is an information technology overhaul of the federal government. long overdue d.o.j. puts teams in every executive branch agencies

with at least a leader, an engineer and hr specialist and a lawyer. there's been a lot of attention grabbing headlines about how under those federal agencies congress funded have shut down, cut probationary workers and canceled contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars. on monday, the department of education alone said it canceled 89 contracts worth $889 million. now, it does make sense that people are alarmed by the swift, blunt nature of these moves. trump is the first president since the 1800s to move into a second term, eight years after the first. determined to make changes and fully aware of the levers of presidential power. and that puts doge in a historically rare position to overhaul the way government spends money and makes decisions, hopefully for the better. >> so do you think it's hard to track though, the details of what doge is really saying? i mean, that is that is the question. and how can we be sure, if you will, that all of this is helping? >> well, andrew, on the other hand, doge might be causing more

damage than it's repairing. after all, elon musk, the multi-billionaire running the department, has long been a target of government regulators. now he's got power to squeeze them, but he's just bringing in software engineers and finding wasteful spending. right. well, there are some odd patterns in the waste. doge is trumpeting some of its more breathless than accurate. the agency claimed that in 2024, the government spent $7 million on projects studying magic. sounds silly. it's not true, though about 90% of that $7 million went to a children's science museum in north dakota. it's called magic city discovery center. oops. or did you hear the one about the fed spending $50 million to send condoms to gaza? also, not true. health and human services apparently granted $83 million to a pediatric aids foundation operating in mozambique's gaza province over several years. that's a lot different. well, everybody makes mistakes, but that's not the point. if doge thinks it's shutting off funding for magic tricks and condoms, but it's actually harming children's museums and the fight against pediatric aids, that's a

major problem. >> okay, so where do you really come down? >> where i come down is we don't actually know what they're doing, and we probably won't for a couple of years. right? you see, if anything falls off the car. >> but we will see. i mean, they've said on the website that by valentine's day we should have the receipts full on receipts for everything. is that will that change your mind? >> well, it depends on how detailed those receipts are. i mean, if we shut things down, for example, with usaid, there are a lot of things that are being shut down, including food, that us farmers are growing and sending over there, that now, you know, some representatives in those states. >> knowing what we know. >> about the government. >> just is. >> there any doubt in your mind. >> that there's waste, fraud and abuse? >> yes. no. okay. give me. a give me a percentage. >> just what. >> would be the most conservative percentage number that you could is there is there. if i said 10%, you'd laugh. so there's a lot more than 10%. >> you know. you know what would

make me. >> feel better? my only point is. that mixing up mozambique and gaza and getting bogged down in that and moralizing about that versus what. on both sides versus what we could actually accomplish if there's so much there. i mean, it's like farmer avery, like they. >> were like. >> it's just like a sprinkler or like the guy outside the used car dealership. i mean, it's just it's beyond it's like you're talking about a 1% problem. i'm talking about a 50% problem. >> but you want accuracy. you want the ability to. >> say. >> don't sacrifice the good for the perfect. and if things, as elon said, if we find out that it cuts too close to the bone and something is necessary, you can always come back. >> but we can agree. >> on that. >> but that's the. but that is the question. >> the question is you take it. you got to be careful. >> the idea of taking it down to the studs and. rebuilding code i like. are you surprised. >> that. >> the minute we try. >> is when you're taking down to the studs? if you break some of

the pipes right, you're taken down to the studs. are you surprised. >> that the people that benefit from the most from all this stuff are the ones squawking the loudest? we knew it was going to happen. we're not even two weeks into it. and look at the look at the outcry. >> on the other hand. >> look at the outcry. that's where i got the letter. >> thank you john. >> buying a car is kind of a big deal. you need to see all. >> the options. see. >> she knows car gurus gives you the most new and used cars right. >> in. >> your hand. so you. >> know. >> your big deal is the best deal. car gurus. the number one. >> most. >> visited car shopping site. >> hi. >> i'm regional commercial actor neil patrick harris i love coffee, i love starting my day with it and more importantly, i look good drinking it. hello there! i just don't love the

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among today's top stories. about 75,000 federal workers took an offer from the trump administration to leave their government jobs in exchange for salary payments through october. that's according to a spokesperson for the office of personnel management. cnbc has not independently verified that number, but it would be short of the trump administration's goal. that's about 3% of the civilian workforce. the government has said that they would like to. the trump administration has said that they would like to get rid of something between 5 and 10%. the government said the buyout offer is now closed to additional workers. alibaba confirming that. >> it will. >> partner with apple to roll out ai for iphones that are sold in china. chairman joe tsai revealing that news today at a summit in dubai. analysts have attributed a slow start for apple ai in china to the country's strict technology rules, and chevron says that it will lay off up to 20% of its global workforce by the end of next year. the company has been looking to cut costs and simplify its businesses. a 20% staff cut would equal about 8000

jobs based on chevron's workforce at the end of 2023. president trump imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports earlier this week. for more on the potential impact on commodities, the energy sector and the markets, we want to get to our next guest, jeff curry. he is carlyle, chief strategy officer of energy pathways. and jeff, it's been a while since we've gotten to talk to you. first of all, how are you doing? >> i'm doing well, becky. it's good to see you. i'm glad to be back here. >> talking about the commodities. >> so. >> yeah, there's a lot to talk about. steel and aluminum prices. we've watched what's happened with the stocks. i guess the commodity is a more interesting thing to kind of take off. obviously american companies, their stock prices did benefit from the tariffs that are going to be imposed. what's it been doing to commodity prices overall? >> well when you. >> look at like aluminum, it's priced it in almost entirely in places. >> like the midwest premium. for

lme aluminum. >> i think the point you make. >> like alcoa. >> it really didn't. price it in. so the question is. why did the commodity market price it in and alcoa didn't? i think it simply goes down to, you know, three factors. one, it's going to take 2 to 5 years. >> to bring. >> on new supply. we think the deficits. >> are so large. >> that the persistence of such a. large tariff is probably not sustainable. >> second thing, i'd like to point. >> out this out. >> if you think. ai is power. >> intensive. aluminum is a. >> whole different world. it is. >> six times. >> more power. intensive than ai. >> data centers. so bringing. >> it onshore. >> in an environment. >> in which. ai data centers. >> are already. >> expected to consume any excess. >> power. >> this would be incredibly disruptive to power grid. there's a reason why it was outsourced to begin with. >> then i think. >> the third point to keep in. >> mind is. >> you know, big. >> tech missed earnings last. week because the growth in data

cloud data. >> missed their targets. >> why? because they didn't have access to things like transformers. what are transformers? >> they're just big chunks of metal. so if you put tariffs disrupt these supply chains it just aggravates that situation. >> i think. >> that's why. >> you know. >> alcoa didn't. price it in. but the. commodity markets have fully priced. >> it in over. >> the next 2. >> to 3 quarters. >> you know we've. >> got the inflation numbers that we saw yesterday on the consumer level today we're getting producer prices. how does this play into producer price inflation. not that we're going to see in today's print, but let's say 3 to 6 months down the road. >> it's very significant. >> i mean, when. you look. >> at, you know. >> the rises in, you know, take that midwest. premium for aluminum, you're. up 25%. it priced in those targets perfect or the. >> tariffs perfectly. >> you look at comex high grade copper. it's up 10 to 12% right now. these are major inputs into basic production across the.

>> supply chain. and i want to point out in that hot. >> inflation report yesterday. it was things like transportation equipment. >> which are what metal consumers. >> where you actually saw. >> the inflationary pressures. so you know. >> i. >> think this is. >> very significant. >> jeff. >> we've talked about. >> how hard it is to. >> try to. move away. >> from fossil fuels and how long it's going to be. and, you know, there it finally made its appearance in the wall street journal, an op ed piece on landman out of actually out of hollywood. there's actually. something that shows how essential fossil fuels are to this world. >> that we've built. >> and the way they do. >> but one. >> thing that becomes clear, even if it's just a tv show. >> but they do point. out the oil industry. >> likes 60 to $80 oil. >> if it's under. >> 60, things become. very dicey for the producers, and it really matters that it like 70, 75. that's perfect. if we drill,

baby, drill. like president trump wants to do. and doug burgum and we keep hearing about it, how that's going. >> to be a panacea. >> and like our golden. ticket to. >> everything good in the. >> world, can't that be self-defeating if we produce too. much or if we overdo it. won't prices collapse and then we go through a bad spell? >> for one? >> i don't think you. can overdo it. i mean, these producers have made. >> it. clear regulation. >> is not the constraint on their ability to raise production right now. >> but i want. >> to go back to your point about, you know, low oil prices being bad for the us. this is not 1970 united states. this is 2025 united states. it produces more oil than saudi arabia and russia combined. it's 20 million barrels per day of oil production points. you point out oil prices go down below 65 or 60. >> us has. >> a problem. you know, if you think about even on the upside, yeah, it may hurt the consumers

in places like chicago and michigan temporarily, but it will benefit them in the longer term because you get more capex, more investment. so when we look. >> at. >> the. >> us. >> it's a benefactor from from higher oil prices. so you're spot on. but i think about those fears of prices coming down and, you know, creating a, you know, you know, due. >> to. >> drill baby, drill. us production hit 13 million barrels per day on the eve of covid. >> it dropped. >> down to ten. it came back to around 13.2. so between 2019 and today, we're still roughly 13 million barrels per day. on liquid oil production. you get to the 20 by adding in ngls and other types of liquids. >> but black crude oil, it's. >> roughly 13. 13 i. >> think you're going to. >> really stress the system to get it above 13.4 13.5. so when we think about the ability to drill, baby, drill, even the administration has. >> toned down. >> the barrels of production and

called them barrels of oil equivalency to be able to address it. >> as. >> gas as opposed to oil. >> i don't. >> know what all that. >> means then. so it's. >> kind of a pipe dream then then that we can we can't go to we can't produce more. >> yeah. i think it'll be really difficult to, you know. >> to add. >> you know, that their target is 3 million barrels per day. and that's the reason why they quit calling it 3 million barrels per day and called it 3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. >> so what. >> happens with canada if they decide to put tariffs on the energy that they are sending us? >> well. >> i think one, when you look at, you know, the ability for them to redirect oil out to the west coast through vancouver into places like china, you're already seeing, you know, every effort to move. >> those barrels. >> elsewhere in the world, you know, which is creating, you know, shortages of products in in places like the midcontinent, you know, you look at product markets around the world, you know, they're at very, very tight levels at this point right

now. so we're starting to see barrels being redirected. not only do you have it, the tariff situation in the us, but you also have, you know, russian sanctions biting, iranian sanctions biting. overall inventories are the lowest levels they've been since, you know, going back a decades. so markets tight. you can see it in the front of the forward curve, which suggests, you know, the risks are still skewed to the upside right now. you know the question you're probably asking why isn't the price price it in. >> right now. why has it gone i. right. >> right. >> investors have no interest to come into. >> this space. >> and when we look at, you know, the amount of leverage in the market, you know, given where interest rates. >> are, the cost. >> of capital, people shun these markets, all of these markets, whether it's aluminum. >> copper. >> the old economy is still very much out of favor right now. and you have to get expected returns high enough relative to say, like big tech before you're going to see capital move in here. another way to say it is in the 2000 when we got bullish

on oil, the market would price it in because it saw the upside. today it's not going to price it in until you drive over that pothole. >> jeff thank you. really good talking to you. >> interesting. thanks for having me. >> it's a new, new job. >> we've had. >> him on since. >> yeah, we've had him on since. i might. it might have been under the i don't know i don't know where. >> it was. it's been a while since he's. >> been on. >> it has. yeah. >> it is good to have him on. >> we miss you, jeff. >> thank you. >> and i listened to all of them trying to. now i'm trying. >> i'm still trying. >> to figure it out now, too. coming up january. producer prices. following yesterday's yesterday's cpi data. and president trump says he's going to sign reciprocal tariffs on countries around the world today. we'll get reaction from washington senator maria cantwell who has come out strongly against the president's trade move. stay tuned. you're trade move. stay tuned. you're watching squawk box on cnbc.

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luxury resale. shop now with code tr20. >> for 20% off. >> terms apply. >> welcome back to squawk box. this morning, president trump vowing to hit countries around the world with tariffs equal to what those nations charge the us. in a post on truth social this morning, he said, quote, three great weeks, perhaps the best ever. but today is the big one. reciprocal tariffs make america great again, he says with exclamation points. our next guest is a staunch critic

of the president's recent tariff action. joining us is senator maria cantwell, democrat of washington state. she's the ranking member of the commerce committee. good morning to you. your reaction to the idea of reciprocal tariffs, just on the face of it this morning. >> well. >> this is the fourth week of the trump administration. >> and. >> i would hope. >> that we would have been hearing about how we're lowering costs on housing. >> food prices. and drugs. >> and instead. >> we're now in. >> a i. >> don't know, it almost seems like. >> a tariff. >> tantrum, like. >> we're. >> just going to tariff everything. and what. >> i would like to see is. >> an engagement by. >> both democrats and republicans pushing back on this notion that a tariff. >> everything strategy is the way to get out. >> of this situation. >> do you see any value in tariffs? i mean, i think that part of the conundrum right now is there probably is a reasonable conversation to have about some tariffs. i just don't know if it becomes so political

that one side thinks we should tariff everything. and once the other side says we. >> should tariff nothing. >> well, i. >> saw yesterday that mitch mcconnell put out an opinion. >> piece about. >> how tariffs are taxes on agricultural products, manufacturing products. >> and i know that. >> i've had. >> conversations with my colleague rand paul. so i know. there is bipartisan. >> concern about this. >> what i'm trying to articulate is i think. >> this is the wrong. >> strategy at the wrong time. >> we are in a. >> more. >> globalized economy. >> we're in. >> an innovation. >> information age economy. >> and i think alliance. building gets. >> us further. >> in offsetting. >> our adversaries and moving forward. i believe in a. technology nato. >> let's get the. >> democracies and the sophisticated tech nations. >> working together. >> on this is the rules of the roads. >> for ai. >> and for no. >> government backdoors. >> and. >> things of that nature. >> and i think that would be a better strategy. >> so what's your reaction? >> i'm trying to be a go ahead.

>> i was just going to ask you. >> what you're trying to be a loud. >> i apologize. >> go ahead andrew. >> sorry, senator. >> i was just going to i was just going to ask you what your what your take was on doge and the work that elon musk has been doing, either how excited you are or how concerned you are. >> all right, listen, i everybody thinks there can be more government efficiency. there's my side of the aisle, has a group of senators. >> that have been. >> talking about efficiencies. >> in health. >> care for. >> a. long time. focusing on what. >> are more. better outcomes. >> at lower. >> lower cost. >> and we should. >> pursue those. >> in fact, we have probably one of the lowest. >> reimbursement rates. >> for. >> medicare in the nation. and yet we deliver. better outcomes. >> so why can't we. move more. >> of the country. >> to that? but when you're. >> in surgery, you don't. take a. >> hammer, okay. >> and elon musk. >> thinks he can take a. >> hammer to the. >> federal government. >> he's even getting rid. >> of an idea. >> the development. >> finance corporation. lawyers

that really were. >> trump's idea. >> jared kushner's. idea to go and do m&a deals with. >> other countries on critical. >> minerals. >> and. >> he's decimating. >> that organization. >> so how does. >> that make sense? >> so i think if. >> you. >> if you. wanted to set a goal. >> and you. >> wanted to set an idea. >> that would. >> be a better tactic. but back to the tariffs. >> you have information. >> yesterday on inflation that is starting to show. >> concerns here. >> we know that tariffs. >> are the start of a dispute. they're not the end of dispute. >> and in my. >> state. >> because we're a very. >> trade dependent state. >> we have. seen and i've been. >> critical of obama's tariffs. >> i've been critical of. >> biden's tariffs. >> what i. >> want people to understand is we. >> live in a world now where. >> alliances and. dealing with these issues in a coalition basis will get. >> us further, because 95%. >> of consumers are outside. >> the united states. >> so you don't believe that this is a larger negotiating tactic, meaning is there is there any argument that you

could see of having value in terms of trying to reset the relationship that the us has with other countries that do tariff us. >> on principles. >> on principles? when ben. franklin went to france and said, hey, let's work. >> together. >> that was based on a principle, but this administration seems to be throwing out the principles and just going with the hammer. and what i think is. >> so. >> important in this environment. >> is that. >> we set. this conversation. based on alliances. so in the last trump administration, he did the same thing. this time he's going. >> faster and. basically cut hundreds. >> of. >> thousands, hundreds of. >> apple jobs in my state that. >> never recovered. but it. >> decimated $120 million market. >> and then. >> basically. >> because of the retaliatory retaliatory. >> tariffs, we were. >> without an. >> apple market to india. i worked in the biden administration. to get that restored. so what people don't understand. is in this environment. you don't just

lose. >> farmland because. actually bill. >> gates or somebody will buy it. >> you're losing farmers. >> and right now the. world should we should be opening. >> up markets. >> we should. >> be. opening up agriculture. opportunities around the globe. >> so tariffs. >> are coming. >> looks like. >> but there aren't any new ones yet. the only ones we have now are the ones that that the biden administration left on that, that the trump administration put on. have you been lobbying nonstop, the biden administration to get rid of those tariffs? >> yes, joe, i can send you a lot of interchange between myself and catherine tai on this. >> and definitely. >> did not agree with their. >> lack of opening. >> up markets. >> i just voted against the ustr. >> nominee yesterday. >> because i. >> we have gone in. >> the opposite direction that we need to be going. we need to be saying that we believe in. >> opening up. >> these markets and believing in a, in a relationship. so when catherine tai said, i'm going. >> to be the trade.

>> ambassador, but we're. >> not going to articulate. >> a strategy. >> for opening up new markets. >> no. >> that was. >> not acceptable. >> so the fact that we. >> passed the chips and science act allowed india to want to come to the table and say, okay, well, i want some. >> some of that. >> i want some of that. >> chips and science. >> and i said to the biden administration. >> no way in. >> heck we're allowing. >> that to happen unless you get the apple market reopened. and thank. >> god we did. >> but what people. >> need to understand. >> is that tariffs. >> are just the beginning of a fight. >> they are. >> not the end. >> of the fight. >> and once you. >> throw down, then it's. >> just a cavalcade. and so the point is now. >> who are we hurting? >> well. >> consumers can get hurt. certainly farmers can get hurt. >> and we. >> need a better strategy than this. >> senator, it is great to talk to you today. i'm sorry about a little bit of the delay when we were going back and forth, but we look forward to talking to you again very, very soon. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> still to. >> come this morning, former federal reserve vice chairman

roger ferguson will join us after january's producer price data. >> we're going to get that number. >> see how it measures up to the cpi. >> data we got yesterday. >> that number is on the way in just ten minutes time. up next, though, president trump set to meet with india's prime minister today. tariffs in focus for that country. stay tuned. you're watching squawk box and this is cnbc. chronic sleep disorder affects an estimated 70. >> million americans. >> now a. >> texas based nasdaq. >> company called mexican stock symbol. >> nclh has. >> developed a groundbreaking. >> solution to address this. >> multi-billion dollar. >> sleep problem. next lens neurostimulation. >> technology could. >> solve america's chronic insomnia. >> problem.

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>> as a fan. >> when you see this. >> it's all about the numbers. >> we know he wants to hold on to the nba. the question really is how much more will he. >> have to pay? >> a lot of the revenue streams are guaranteed. >> team values continuing to soar. the countdown is on. cnbc sport official nba team valuations revealed tomorrow. >> in squawk box. >> india's prime minister's set. >> to meet with. >> president trump today. >> trade, tariffs and technology. >> all in focus. >> seema mody joins. >> us. >> now with more. >> good morning. seema. >> good morning joe. >> india you know may be the strategic ally to the u.s, but it too is fearful of being caught in a trade war. i'm told by sources prime minister modi will present to president trump in his meeting today a menu of tariff concessions on agriculture medical devices. after already cutting levies on american luxury cars and harley-davidson bikes a couple of weeks ago. modi will also acknowledge the growing u.s.

india trade deficit and signal his intention to buy more defense equipment from the likes of stryker and liquified natural gas from. cheniere energy. the threat of reciprocal tariffs will no doubt hurt india's economy and has already hit indian stocks this year. new delhi, therefore, is really incentivized to get a deal done. i'm also told by a senior government official that modi will meet with elon musk today to discuss widening starlink's access to india. new delhi will also request a country to be exempt from forthcoming export controls. that would make it harder to obtain nvidia's most powerful chips. guys. >> trump was. >> good to india during his first term, seeing the country. >> as. >> an important and strategic ally, a partner in fending off competition from china. the question is, joe, if he feels the same this time around? >> this is. >> watching the. >> as we've seen, you know, netanyahu. followed by the japanese. we can almost sort of see the not the rankings necessarily, but these are important meetings that we're

seeing with, you know, some of the most important, obviously, countries to the united states, especially, you know, when you look at china and. you. >> know. >> there are. >> frenemies, there's friends and there's adversaries, i think and this is an important friend, obviously. >> it is it's the fourth. he will be the fourth foreign head of state to meet with trump since trump took office. and he's coming in with an agenda. he does not want to be caught in a trade war. and he very much looked at those discussions and negotiations with mexico and canada last week and said, listen, even though we have a strategic and important relationship with the us, we could very much get caught up in trade tensions and that would be challenging for india's economy. it would not it would not help the us india relationship. so he's coming in with a much more conciliatory tone than he has in the past. you know, in the past, these two leaders have known of having a bromance, if you will, and known for really striking a strong note behind this relationship. joe.

>> okay. >> all right. thanks, seema. >> good. good. good to see you. it's been a while on squawk box. >> see you. >> thanks. >> elon musk's x. >> social media site. >> agreeing to pay about $10 million to settle a lawsuit brought by president trump. trump sued the company that was then known as twitter and its ceo, jack dorsey, for kicking him off the platform after the riot at the us capitol on january 6th, 2021. twitter cited the risk of trump inciting violence as the as the work to remain president following his election loss, but trump claimed twitter had violated his first amendment rights. musk reinstated trump on the platform when he bought it in 2022. >> coming up next, we've got the number of the morning after yesterday's wildness. we're going to see the january ppi data. do not go anywhere. squawk box will be right back after this. >> this is. >> a landfill. or this.

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design for thoughtful living. thuma. >> we're literally. >> now just seconds away from january. producer price data saw what happened yesterday. here's the futures ahead of that. nothing going on. but we did. we did. closed off the worst levels yesterday. you can see right now

that the nasdaq is actually up. we'll take a look at treasuries. this could change quickly as it did yesterday with 460 right now on the ten year. rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago. and cpi and ppi might rhyme but they definitely don't. always move in tandem. so what is it rick. >> well they don't but they usually do rhyme in this instance. there's a lot of similarities. if we look at the headline number expected up 3/10 on final demand month over month for january. wholesale producer price index comes in up 4/10. bit hotter than expected, equaling november of last year and several other spots. but to find a higher number, you're going to april of 24 when it was up half of 1%. if we look at x food and energy up 3/10 somewhat as expected. definitely a lot hotter than the zero in the rear view mirror in that headline was 0.2 in the rear view mirror. so

sequentially higher 0.3 to find a higher number. you're going back to september of last year. take out food energy and trade. also up 3/10 hotter than expected and definitely sequentially hotter revisions coming in. we'll get to those in a minute. if we look at now the year over year final demand expected 3.3 comes in 3.53.5. that would be the hottest rate going back to feb of 23. if you look at x food and energy on the year over year perspective expecting 3.3, it's up 3.6. that would be the warmest going back to february of 23 as well. and finally x food x energy x trade. and we're looking at a 3.1 coming in. comes out at 3.4. that would be the warmest going back to you guessed it 23. but this case march of 23. now let's look at these revisions because they're substantial. and

remember like yesterday there's going to be annual revisions. so not just what i'm looking at but going back years okay. the headline number at 0.4 now follows point five instead of up 0.2 x. food and energy up 3/10. now follows up four instead of unchanged x food energy and trade up 3/10 instead of following up one tenth follows up 4/10. so those revisions changed everything sequentially. everything now seems lower. but listen that really isn't going to change the dynamic. the market smells this one. interest rates reversed after looking at the first couple of monthly numbers and before revisions. we're now up at three. excuse me, 461 on a ten, which would be minus two basis points. net change. we see that the pre-opening equities at first rallied a bit. now they're back down but the numbers aren't large. i see dow futures which were up one. and now down 5321.

so getting right back to about where they were. what's interesting here is even though yields are a bit lower now ten year and 30 year have closed higher in yield for five consecutive sessions. so we want to see if we're going to break that pattern today. and don't forget yesterday was a ten year note auction. and despite the big concession and how much higher interest rates moved, the auction didn't go particularly well. it was basically an average auction. today we have 25,000,000,030 year bonds. it's going to be interesting to see how that turns out. i know we talked about a week ago, and we spent time under four and a half briefly in a ten year under four and three quarters, briefly in a 30 year. what did i say, joe? don't look for these to hold out much longer. the technical picture was we weren't going to spend a lot of time below those points. and boy, the technicals worked. so we want to really, really pay a close eye on this auction to see if we drum up any extra demand. now that we've skipped over that four and three quarters mark and a 30 year bond

back to you. >> yeah. >> the futures on. i'm sorry joe. hold on, hold on. initial jobless claims i apologize. yeah 213,000. yeah 213. that follows the slightly revised 220,000. and the best way to look at this is we haven't been over 250,000 since the first week in october of last year. and on continuing claims 1,000,850 backing away from our one read at 1.9 million. that was the second week in january. that was the highest since november of 21. and we've been moving backwards since this equals where we were in the second week of january, this 1,000,850. and you would have to go back to the third week in september, in december to find a smaller continuing claims number. now we're done. apologize, folks. back to you. hey, rick. >> yesterday we. >> yesterday the. >> markets or. >> that. >> number shook us out of our our false sense of.

>> of security. >> about inflation. >> and i don't know why we it was the. >> third straight. increase and we've. >> been talking. >> about it. >> before the turn of the year. all we talked. about was what was still in the pipeline. and she's been talking i talked. >> to sri now. >> but we knew that maybe there was in services and wages. there was no reason to. >> think that the. >> final nail had. >> been put in the coffin. of inflation. that's why we kept saying what the hell is jay powell thinking with 50 basis points? and then another 25 and another 25. we already said all that. i don't know why it came as such a shock yesterday. >> i don't know why. >> do you. >> know i don't know why either. and i'll tell you there was a tell. the tell for the last seven months, in my opinion, is when you see data that doesn't show year over year progress, whether it's cpi, ppi or even to some extent the personal consumption expenditures. what you see is the analysts and the fed officials annualizing some

of the smaller month over month numbers. you know, that's that's a mug's game. it's speculation that next month is going to be in the same stride as the previous several months to give you that six month outlook or that 12 month outlook. it hasn't worked out. and i agree with you. there's certain aspects of inflation. i know it was aig's car insurance, auto prices. you know, my guess is over time egg prices will come down. but some of these insurance issues used car issues, especially considering how jumbled up the last administration put anything that has to do with fossil fuels and evs. you know, this is going to affect production down the road. so i think many of these costs are going to remain higher. and anybody who's taken their car in, or anybody who's bought any auto parts, oh my god, the prices have just skyrocketed. >> yeah, yeah. >> you have a friend. you have a friend. >> how many cars you got? you're in there like like every day rick. stay with us. joining us

now with more on the new inflation data, lindsey piegza, chief economist at stifel. and komal kumar, president of sri kumar global strategies. i kind of was talking, oh, you're here so your ears weren't burning. you actually heard what i said. >> i am. >> not in a burning neighborhood. >> i'm here with you. >> oh, right. >> right, right. >> we i know that that's a whole different issue, but you were not convinced that. the inflation. bugaboo was was laid to rest. >> i wasn't at all. >> and i. >> think the only surprise. >> to me. >> was so many. news outlets yesterday calling it a surprising upturn. there's no as you said before to. >> rick. >> there was nothing. surprising about it. my principle is very simple. if you double the balance sheet at the same time, the fiscal deficit is being increased. just in 2020, 2021 and take interest rates down to. >> zero. >> forget it. you have created inflation. it is not a case of your depending on housing versus

non-housing. housing costs is coming down eggs. something else will pick up because there is a lot of liquidity. so there is nothing surprising. and i think the fed should react next month at its meeting by announcing a hike in the interest rates. next month, next month, march 19th. >> never happen. >> they will not. >> happen because it makes too much sense. >> my. >> they never do what i suggest they do. september i said they should not cut at all and powell cut by 50 basis points. and now i'm saying he should announce an increase. >> lindsey. >> you have. >> the floor. >> you can rick talked. >> he talked. i'm sorry. i had to do because i had already talked to him, but well. >> take it away. >> i think when. >> we look. >> at this, this ascending. >> trend in. >> inflation. >> it. >> first and foremost. >> calls into question whether. >> or not the fed stops short of a sufficiently restrictive level. as you long know, we called. >> for 6%. >> at a minimum. >> the fed was. >> so concerned about inciting negative growth on the way up that. >> they lost focus. >> of the second side of their. >> dual mandate, which.

>> was reinstating price stability. >> it wasn't. >> the. >> election, was it? no, no. they caused them to want growth. >> i think they. >> realized they made a policy. >> mistake on the front end. >> they were late to the inflation taming party, and they. >> didn't want to leave their legacy. >> as making. >> a second policy error, raising rates too high. but in that concern, they did. >> end up making. >> a policy error. we stopped short. we didn't raise rates high enough, and now we're still contending with above target inflation, which we're going to continue. to struggle with for some time. >> if the. >> fed doesn't get this under control, the. >> risk now is not. necessarily a recession or. >> outright negative growth, but the risk is. eventually choking. off upside potential, pushing us into a stagnant economy. sluggish growth still elevated prices. the very definition. >> of stagflation. >> tariffs are inflationary, and if deficit spending is inflationary and we're going to extend the tax cuts maybe permanently, we're just talking about that. how is anything that you're hearing from the trump administration going to help

with what we already know is a problem. it's already a problem. remember. >> tariffs in and. of themselves. >> are not necessarily inflationary. >> a one time. >> price hike. lacks the upward momentum needed. >> to incite inflationary pressures. >> but if. >> we. >> get try and pass those prices on to consumers, if you try and. >> do a direct. >> line, it would correct. >> and then if we get. >> into this back. >> and forth. >> tit for. >> tat. >> retaliatory relationship, right. >> the inflation. >> is there anything that's going to help that is doge going to help. >> if we can find enough line items. >> if. >> we can. >> find enough areas to. offset that expansion. >> in. >> other areas, that loss. in revenue from other. >> initiatives. then absolutely. >> is it going to. >> help the consumer at home? well, it could offset it because it lowers their tax bill. is that the thought? >> absolutely. >> but it's. >> going to depend on where we see the cuts, where we see the increases. and there has to. >> be an equal offset. and that's the big uncertainty that the market is grappling with right now. >> can they. >> find enough areas to cut. >> to. >> offset the inflationary implications and the loss of revenue from. these other initiatives? >> trump said he cut rates yesterday.

>> yeah. >> he said cut. >> rates and they. >> go up. in march. that's earth. >> that would be earth shattering. >> it would be earth shattering. >> it would. >> go against everything the president suggested, and it would also go against what secretary bessant has been saying, saying that the focus is not on the federal funds rate. but on the ten year yield. but once again, the president is speaking about the federal funds rate. >> i know, but. >> the. >> fed doesn't control the ten year yield. it did the opposite of what the fed was doing over. >> the last. >> they controlled it. >> yes. >> just yes. >> and no. >> it does not control it directly. it cannot move it up and. down through administrative decisions. however, if it maintains a low inflation rate and keeps moderate growth. and i have been speaking on your program about following some rule for monetary policy rather than seat of the pants monetary policy that they presently practice. if they do all of that, yes, you will bring the long term interest rate down, but that is beyond the capability. of this fed. it's

beyond the capability of this chairman. so i don't think i would expect that from him at all. >> i think trump would blow a gasket for the president, blow a gasket. if there is a recession, isn't there a possibility of a recession in the next four years? >> i think there absolutely is a possibility in the next 12 months. i would say the possibilities around. >> a. >> 15% level. so it's not zero, but it's certainly not our base. >> case at this scenario. >> we're still seeing a lot of resilience in. >> the economy. consumers are. still spending, businesses are still investing. but we're losing momentum. they are doing so at a noticeably slower pace. so the risk is that we again continue. >> to. >> choke off positive growth. >> and then the. >> risk of recession rises as we look out several years. >> vic. >> rick. >> yeah. you know, yesterday paul spent an awful lot of time, more time, in my opinion, in a more harsh way than he has in a while. regarding the ongoing debt issue and how we can't sustain the debt on the path we're on. we could afford what

we have, but we need to deal with the rate of change for the future. and my hat's off to him on that. i do think that the fed is largely responsible for much of the debt. they kept interest rates too low. they enabled the treasury and the government to overspend. that enabled inflation. but he's getting on the right path. but the issue really is look at some of these revisions today. first of all, all of these revisions are significantly higher. i will go back and look at all the annualized revisions for ppi. my point here is, is that it really demonstrates that some of this inflation was really locked and loaded in a much deeper way than we originally envisioned, especially from a contemporary timeline over the last several months. and i think it's going to be very difficult for this administration to wring out some of this inflation. and as far as d.o.j. and cutting things, i will continue to say, my hat's off to elon musk and the president for giving it a good

college try in the beginning here. but i continue to say that once the government gives a dollar, once that dollar is legislated, it is so, so difficult to extract it, even considering how much baseline spending is increased. and what i'm really saying here is, is that powell should really enhance both parties to work closer together, because what i'm seeing from the democratic party is a lot of inertia. on what the president was elected to do cut spending. >> oh, sorry. >> yeah, i would go with what. rick said and i think that is he's spot on. think about what happened in 2020, 2021. powell's position was, i don't care about fiscal policy. i care only about monetary policy. and i'm going to double the balance sheet. i'm going to reduce interest rates to zero. when the fiscal deficit was already ballooning. and that is not monetary independence. it

is monetary irresponsibility to ignore the fiscal policy. and that's what i think. rick is pointing his finger. >> i don't know that he was ignoring it as much as he was saying. it's not his realm, it's not his ability to control. >> but it. >> is now responsible. now he talks about it. >> becky, i agree, but if it is not his area to control, then he should contain himself on the monetary expansion and not. >> expand the balance. >> sheet and not spend. expand the balance sheet. you cannot tell the treasury what to do, but you can behave better yourself in terms of monetary policy and interest rates. >> yeah. >> lindsey. >> and take it into. >> consideration that when you spend. >> $6 trillion into the market, you probably need. >> to. >> raise rates above the previous peak. >> in. >> inflation, as we've seen in every previous cycle. so again, stopping short at 5.5%, that was the first step of a policy error. and we're going to still contend with the. >> consequences. >> now. >> rick, are you gone? rick, are you still here? yeah. >> so yesterday. >> lonsdale i said never bet

against the deep state swamp always wins. and he said that the swamp has met its match this time. i still don't think so. do you? you're basically saying that to. yeah. >> it's going to be a tough one. and i'll tell you. i enjoyed. >> your two weeks in. with joe yesterday. legacy media, you. >> got a fan now, right? >> i mean, it's give it. >> a good try, especially. especially with the media. >> three weeks. >> especially with the media. >> three weeks in. yeah. >> and democrats. >> are singing songs, writing songs and, you know, we shall overcome. all right. thank you. >> coming up, former fed vice chair roger ferguson is going to be with us. help break it down. the new producer price number and yesterday's cpi data and what it all means for the markets, the fed and so much markets, the fed and so much more. stay (grunting) at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. ( ♪♪ ) partnering to unlock new ideas,

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week's inflation data and what it could mean for the fed, is former federal reserve vice chair roger ferguson, who is also the former president and. ceo of tiaa. he's also a cnbc contributor. and roger, what do you think? >> two days in a row, hotter than expected numbers. >> we all assume that that means the fed is in a little bit of a box, and is not going to be able to do much of anything for the foreseeable future. >> i agree. >> with that completely, becky. >> you may recall on, you know, 2 or 3. >> appearances ago, i said i doubted that the fed would even get. >> off two rate. >> cuts this year as they had put into their. their projections. >> the dot plots. >> and i think the market and the fed. have both. >> come to the. >> conclusion that it's sit tight for a. >> long period of time. >> you know, they had hoped that inflation was moving. >> gradually but steadily to. >> the 2% target. i think that's called into question right now. it's been moving sideways. and now unfortunately in some measures slightly higher. >> so stand pat. >> for a long period of time

until there's greater clarity. >> how concerned are you about this inflation and just how persistent it is? >> i'm so. >> concerned. >> about it, which is. >> i think, a message i've been delivering for a period of time. some of it is structural, you. >> know, housing, for example. but then we. >> find, you know, in autos the same thing, but to a broader picture. >> you know, we're running fiscal deficits. >> i'm not. >> sure that the current administration, try. >> as they might, will be. >> able to get. >> that under control. >> introducing tariffs. >> doesn't necessarily have to be inflationary. but against. >> this backdrop. >> it might well be. and so i am i am concerned. >> that, you know, we are in a. >> period of great. >> uncertainty when it comes to macroeconomics, making the fed's job very difficult. >> where where. >> do you lean just. in terms of where the economy is headed? in all, it seems like a pretty decent economy. jobs numbers haven't been. concerning at all. they've been pretty strong numbers too. do you worry more about the economy weakening,

about inflation heating up? or is it a combination of the two? >> it's really a combination of the two. so i agree you know the president has inherited a very strong economy. >> unemployment is, you know, roughly where. >> we'd normally think of full employment of roughly 4%. inflation has been. coming down, but it's not at the 2% level. i think the issue now is, you know, if the fed is going to really try to drive inflation towards 2% against these other forces, they're going to have to really. ratchet up rates maybe higher. >> than than. >> they or anyone else would like. there's a risk that tit for tat tariffs may slow the global economy. so i frankly see risks on both sides. and i think it's therefore. >> a. >> pretty treacherous time. >> inflation could well pick up. >> it does seem to be entrenched. and at the same time, if the macro situation isn't well handled, we could have tit for tat tariffs that slow the global economy and create recessions in some of our larger trading partners.

>> so you. >> just said. >> the fed may have to ratchet up rates higher than they would like or anybody else would like. you think the next move is higher, not lower. how soon do you think that could be on the table? >> i think it's going to be quite a while before that's on the table, because they are definitely going to wait to see if, in fact, the earlier disinflationary pressures come in, they have to wait to see and get some comfort around, you know, exactly how these tariffs play out. so i'm. not expecting a move up in the next 2 or 3 meetings necessarily. it may never occur by. >> the way if in fact inflation. >> does cool. but i think it definitely has to be on the table as a possibility. and i think it would be unwise for them to remove that as a possibility until they get greater certainty. so i'm not suggesting that, you know, a turn towards higher rates is imminent in the march meeting or the one after that. no, no, no, i'm not suggesting that. but i am saying that at some point, if this doesn't get.

>> better. >> they have to be open to raising. >> rates again, because. >> that's part of what's called for to maintain credibility. >> so how. >> difficult is it to do that with president trump saying that he wants to see rates lowered, saying not just to the fed, but saying that pretty publicly? and i'm. >> guessing you. >> heard our last conversation. what do you think of the criticism leveled at the fed for not doing more on the monetary front, or at the very least, enabling monetary policy by expanding the balance sheet? >> look, i think the fed got started on the inflation fight a little later than it should have given that debate around. >> transitory is permanent. >> you're so nice. that's such a nice way of saying that, roger. oh, i think the fed goes. >> i always try to. be balanced, as you know, joe. i think it's important to maintain a. >> certain kind of i know. >> i know. >> i want. >> to i want to get you drunk and just get you. going is what i'd like to. just really. just say it exactly like how you

feel. >> can we. >> do that sometime, joe? >> we're on national tv, my friend. >> i don't have to be on national tv. or fine. maybe one of the late. >> go on. >> closing bell. >> international. >> actually, yeah. >> international, right. >> international. >> it's the after. it's the afternoon over there. it's the afternoon over there. >> joe. joe invites. >> the former. >> fed vice chairman out for a couple of drinks to really get while. >> it is. >> yeah. i did. >> i did you guys know me. really well? yeah. so look very seriously. this is incredibly serious, though. you know this is. >> very serious. >> so the fed clearly got started late. you know, there are lots of reasons to critique monetary and fiscal policy. we are where we are. and you know, the new administration, you know, with the president pushing for lower rates i think would not be helpful. i do not think the fed is going to listen to that. and i don't think the markets want the fed to listen to that. no one wants this inflation genie to get out of

the bottle. it's fighting hard right now. and so the sooner we get this under control the better for everybody including frankly, this president. remember, the president was elected in part because people were unhappy with inflation. you know, he promised to bring prices down. i think that's going to be hard to deliver. but certainly it can't be reelected. >> if inflation. >> starts to ignite again. >> okay, roger. >> thank you. >> think about it, roger. >> and you. >> know, think. >> about it. >> you can take. >> a rain check. >> think about. >> it. >> at some point. >> think about it. >> take a rain check. >> thank you both. >> all right. >> president trump. >> just putting on truth social a news conference on reciprocal tariffs today at 1 p.m. oval office. be there or be. no. he didn't say be there or be square. coming up we're going to get you ready for the opening bell on wall street. squawk box will be right back. >> did you. >> know taking. >> xyzal at. >> night relieves allergies while you. >> sleep. >> so you wake refreshed for a more productive day. get 24 hour

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i mean now we're basically only down 100 points on the dow from from where that happened yesterday. what i said if they don't cut bitcoin, there's no reason for. >> me. >> to overreact to yesterday's. no i think that. >> was it. i think. yesterday was the. and we follow treasury. >> we got. >> to go. >> make sure you join us tomorrow. we'll talk all about it. squawk on the street is next. >> good thursday morning. welcome to squawk on the street. >> i'm carl. >> quintanilla with sara eisen. mike santoli here at post nine of the new york stock exchange cramer and faber have the morning off. futures holding in there. despite the slightly warmer than expected ppi number and the prospect of retaliatory tariffs from the white house today. yields a little bit lower across the curve. a lot of february quarter earnings movers including cisco up six. >> a roadmap. >> though is going to. >> begin with. >> deleted elon musk calling for the u.s. to, quote, delete entire federal agencies comparing them to weeds. >> plusar