>> josh brown. >> very quietly. starbucks which i'm long hit a new high 52 week high this morning. the all time high is out at 126 from a couple of years ago. brian nicole is just getting started. i'm staying long. this name. >> all right. we'll follow that as well. track this market which is higher across the board right now. it does it for us. i will see you on the closing bell at three. >> thank you very much. >> scott, and. >> welcome to the exchange. i'm kelly evans. and ahead this hour. president trump is expected to. >> make a new announcement on tariffs teasing it on social media earlier today saying, quote, three great weeks. referring to his presidency so far, he said perhaps the best ever. but today is the big one. reciprocal tariffs make america great again. so simply put, the president wants to match what other nations currently charge the us to import american goods. investors for now are largely shrugging it off. take a quick look at markets. you can see

modest gains for the dow. nearly half a percent for the s&p. three quarters for the nasdaq. this could reportedly take time to go into effect. and that detail will be crucial to listen for when the president's remarks begin. megan costello is live in washington with what we know as of now. mike pond has the tariff impact on inflation. he's barclays global inflation guy, and michael landsberg has the kind of round things up for us on what the market impact now and into the future could be. it's great to have you all here. and megan kick things off for us. >> kelly. >> it's a big hour. >> and you just said it. this is. >> the. >> tariff announcement. >> that trump himself. >> is calling the big one. reporters are gearing up, as we speak, to head into the oval office right now, where we expect the president to announce these reciprocal tariffs on all countries. and this is the idea, again, that any country that charges a tax on u.s. exports will now see an equal tax placed on identical goods coming into the us. but a couple of points of caution here as we await final details from the president. one is that this is expected to be a presidential memorandum, not an executive

order, just means it has a little less heft than it otherwise would. this is also not expected to take effect immediately. we are expecting some lead time before implementation, potentially to april 1st, or it could be another date potentially later that is still being worked out. or at least it was this morning that would allow some time for negotiations with other countries who might be willing to offer concessions in order to avoid tariffs. there also could be some minor exemptions allowed here, but that is not clear yet. the president himself appears to be resistant to major exemptions, so more to watch. more details on all of that expected really any minute now as we wait to hear from the president himself on all of this. kelly. >> so, megan, a presidential memorandum, not an executive order. technically. >> that's what we're expecting. it's only a technical difference, but it can matter in terms of the amount of authority given here. so some of the fine print is actually going to be important to look at. is this simply a plan. is this a proposal to work on a report to maybe do tariffs. or is this something more formal. we're doing tariffs on x date. and then countries have to decide

what they're willing to give up in order to try to avoid them. so maybe a scramble we have to sort of look at those sorts of details. >> that's a very interesting one, megan. thank you for now. we appreciate it. megan cassella. reminder, even as we wait for more specifics, actual and threatened tariffs have already been a major theme this earnings season, mentioned by more than 200 companies on their calls, according to wolfe research. some examples. ford ceo jim farley saying 25% tariffs on mexico and canada, which are currently kind of in limbo or delayed, would burrow a hole in the us industry. we've never seen before. intel, whose shares have been on a tear lately suspecting its q4 revenue bump, was thanks in part to hedging ahead of tariff implementation. chipotle was forced to brush off concerns about a potential spike in avocado prices, and coke said if aluminum becomes more expensive, they could shift to more plastic packaging. and of course, there's the broader effect on inflation to consider as well here, especially after the cpi report yesterday. here to talk us through all of it is michael landsberg, the chief investment officer at landsburg private wealth, and mike pond, head of

inflation linked research at barclays. mike pond i'll kick it off with you. how much near-term inflationary pressure do you anticipate from all of this? >> well. >> so far the only increase we've. >> seen is two. >> uncertainty not to. >> inflation itself. >> we could still be seeing tariffs as a negotiating tool, in which case we wouldn't see any or very, very little tariff induced inflation that hits the hits the consumer. on the other hand, you know, if we get 25% tariffs on mexico and canada, those are likely just an opening round to a true global trade war that could push up inflation by 100 basis points or more. so inflation uncertainty has risen dramatically, but we actually haven't seen anything come through inflation just yet. >> well, just to dwell on that for a minute, i think it was larry lindsey on the program the other day who said he thought this was all a chess game with mexico and canada to actually kind of get us to come to an

agreement, present a united front to china. putting all of that aside, the only tariffs that have gone into effect right now are on steel and aluminum. is that right? >> that's right. well, plus the 10% on china. right, right. but even that we saw tariffs imposed on china in trump 1.0. but they weren't big enough or broad enough either on a goods perspective or a country perspective that it really hit the consumer. tariffs can be avoided, if you will, or at least dampened through a currency appreciation or absorption in in corporate margins. so there are ways where even if we do have tariffs, if they're not big enough or broad enough, they won't actually hit consumer inflation. >> yeah. the cpi report was was pretty nasty yesterday. and again maybe the ppi today tells us okay pc is going to be 3/10 or four instead of five. i don't know mike pond. this trend is not great to kick off the year. and that's why any little wiggle on the tariff front, or for other reasons, presents a bit of a problem. >> yeah. i mean, when we look at

the underlying components of cpi, that surprised to the upside yesterday. we're not worried about the trend in inflation accelerating again. and we don't think the fed should be and we don't think the markets are. if we look at the move in breakevens yesterday yes breakevens went up particularly at the front end. but if we look at forward inflation expectations they barely budged. so in other words, the market said yes, we got a higher inflation print, but it means nothing for february and march and april. at least not what that we didn't already know. so it was things like used cars or lodging away from home. so hotels or airline fares. those are traditionally very volatile components, not indicators of the underlying trend. so we're not worried that yesterday's print leads to higher inflation for the rest of this year. in fact, the translation into pce, which is more important for the fed. and we'll get this later this month, indicates that the year over year core pce rate should fall from 2.8% in

december to 2.6% in january. that's welcome news for the fed. it's sufficient, but far from it's necessary, but far from sufficient for them to cut. they're on hold for now. they are looking for data that tells them that inflation is back to 2%. they're not getting it yet, but it doesn't mean that they can't get it in the months ahead. >> and michael landsberg to john's point, you know, the inflation market or real rates, they might not have looked at the report yesterday and said they have to extrapolate. but the bond market moved a lot. you know, the ten year moved, unless you think the ten year moved up because of what we were learning about, you know, republican spending plans or what do we call the bill? it's kind of his spending plans. you know, the budget report in the afternoon. why do you think rates have moved higher? >> the rates have moved higher. the idea that we're going to have higher inflation. we've we've believed that since september. and we had basically inflation going to 3.5% basically from september to september. regardless of who was

winning this election. just in terms of various. you know, rates of acceleration, base cases that we had it going up, i think the markets realized inflation is going to be here for a while. the fed is going to be on the sidelines. i think that's going to be higher rates and growth has been good. and one of the things i think that people worry about is the economy has been pretty good. we've seen earnings growth in the stock side s&p up double digits nasdaq. >> is up double. >> digits year over year. the economy is pretty strong. corporate earnings are strong. and i don't see the fed kind of coming in to rescue everybody now with cutting rates. so i think that's where the market has realized we're going to berg in rick santelli. i see we're moving a little higher rick. >> yeah. >> you know it. >> was very. >> similar to. >> yesterday's ten year auction 25,000,000,030 year bonds first opening. this is of. >> course the final. >> leg of $125. >> billion in. >> coupon supply. i gave it a c.

minus grade yield. >> 4.748 was over a basis point higher than the one. >> issue market. >> very similar. >> to yesterday. tailing is a. pricing issue. >> that gets. >> big marks off. >> all the other metrics are actually. >> just a little bit below average. >> so the auction. >> wasn't very good. >> and ultimately the long dated treasuries, whether it was the ten or the 30, didn't find the type of love i thought they would, especially after yesterday's jump up in yield. then today's huge revisions in ppi that actually showed that sequentially lower, lower inflation rates than last month, which you really have to scratch your head over. but ultimately, it seems as though there's a little bit more nervousness regarding these auctions. now, that doesn't mean that the next several aren't going to go better, but we're reading a lot of uncertainty in the marketplace, and i do believe that is a presence in the ability of these investors to be a bit more aggressive. back to

you. >> rick. thank you. and michael landsberg, i don't know if that kind of makes the point. you were just trying to make. >> it does. i mean, i think, i think the bond market, for the most part, are going to be rangebound. i don't see rates moving up much higher from here, but i don't see them going much lower. i think we're going to have to be in this environment where we're investing with an environment of higher inflation, higher rates. that does not bode well for small caps. it's a sector that we haven't liked broadly for over three years. you basically made no money. in fact, you're negative for the last three and a quarter years in the russell 2000 index. you got to stay away from that. spaces that are not going to do well with higher rates. and again positioning yourself higher inflation has been a call that we've made since september. the crb index is up 20%. most investors watching this probably don't have a commodity exposure. you should because commodities have done well. we think they continue to do well. really even energy, god forbid energy got in the mix here that inflation could go higher. inflation's ramped up with no help really from oil. >> is that why you like ge ivanova or your stock ideas a little. which commodities do you like? >> well from a commodity sample

we kind of like broadly some of the commodities. i like ge for the simple fact that there's an energy shortage in the world, and we're going to have a lot of tech names that are going to be demanding energy. and they've got kind of a nice play on traditional electricity, but also they've got a good, good, good, good space, if you will, in the nuclear small modular reactor business. i think that's important as well to have some of that future business. i think that would be there. >> mike, let me give you the last word. what are you going to be listening for? and what do you think is important for investors to be kind of like keeping it in ear pricked for. >> again, i think the tails, when it comes to the tariff outlook and whether we get inflation or not have increased. so they're fatter, if you will, there's greater uncertainty. we think that that greater uncertainty over inflation should drive crossover in investors. so risk on investors like equity investors credit investors into short end breakevens. as a hedge. if we look at where the market is priced for year over year inflation for next july, it's only about 2.6%, 2.7. so it's

not particularly high. but if we do get that full on trade war, global trade war, that's probably a lot higher. and equities probably aren't going to do so great in that scenario. so you know, shorter, shorter end break even cpi swaps offer a very good hedge to that risk right now. >> all right gentlemen thanks mike pond michael landsberg we appreciate it today. and still to come, how worried should tesla investors be. the shares are near their lowest level in three months. but dan ives says worries about musk being distracted by doge or whatever are overdone. he expects to see another trillion dollars in market cap, and for tesla to get tariff carve outs in china. plus, president trump sending treasury secretary besson to sit down with ukrainian president zelenskyy, while the defense secretary, pete hegseth, meets with nato. all of this amid rumors of a possible truce between russia and ukraine. atlantic council ceo fred kempe will join us live from munich, where they're having that big security conference. they'll tell us what he's hearing from

european officials on the potential deal. we continue to await president trump's comments on reciprocal tariffs, and we'll bring you those headlines as soon as we get them. the exchange is back after this. exchange is back after this. >> this is the exchange on (♪♪) (♪♪) what took you so long? i'm sorry, there was a long line at the thai place. you get the sauce i like? of course! you're the man! i wish. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com treatment for this disease. now, oko pharma is

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>> welcome back to the exchange. we're awaiting president trump's statement from the oval office on his plan to impose reciprocal tariffs on many other countries. in the meantime, indian prime minister narendra modi is set to become one of the first foreign leaders to meet with the president since he took office three weeks ago. and he's meeting with elon musk to discuss starlink access in india. seema mody is in washington with what to expect from those conversations. seema. >> well, talk about getting caught in the line of fire. kelly. these reciprocal tariffs are set to be announced just hours before president trump meets with the indian leader at the white house. now, to avoid a trade war, i'm told prime minister modi is ready to present a menu of trade concessions cutting tariffs on american luxury cars, agriculture and lay the groundwork to a deal that would potentially be announced when president trump goes to india later this year. talk about the trade deficit. it's the 10th largest. but more importantly, it's been growing in recent years, which modi will acknowledge by showing india's willingness to buy defense equipment and more liquefied natural gas, a deal that would likely involve cheniere energy.

india already buys about one fifth of its lng from the us and is one of the world's biggest importers, while third comes from russia. i heard that was a talking point during modi's meeting with national security adviser mike wallace earlier today. and we just saw elon musk leave blair house, where he too met with the indian leader, artificial intelligence starlink, expanding tesla into the emerging market. i'm told we're all discussed and big tech will be watching these meetings closely. we know google, microsoft, meta have invested billions in the country in recent years. >> it's interesting. they say they'll, you know, relax tariffs on harley, maybe a preview of what other countries might do once these reciprocal tariffs are broadly announced and buy more lng in india. the he just tweeted as well posted on x that he had a very good meeting with elon musk in washington discussing issues including space mobility, technology and innovation. >> yeah, this is a relationship that musk has been growing in recent years. he met with modi back in 2023, in new york city, where we reported that he talked

about expanding tesla into the country. but then right after that, he didn't actually follow up with those plans. he doubled down on expanding into china, which i was told by new delhi. they made notice of that. so perhaps they cleared up how he plans to expand tesla's presence in the country and source more critical materials from india as they become a bigger source for other countries as well. >> all right. thank you very much, seema mody. meantime, doj's dismantling of the cfpb is moving along with full speed, with several dozen employees being terminated. but as musk has spent more time in washington, shares of tesla have slumped, now down 18% since trump took office. and that's frustrating some investors, but not my next guest, who says musk is better at juggling multiple roles than any other ceo. his autonomous and robotics plans have accelerated, and his close ties to washington are more help than hindrance. joining me now is dan ives of wedbush. he's the global head of tech research. well, dan, i think i summarized it pretty good. but you think another trillion in market cap from here. >> i mean. >> i think the golden.

>> goose is autonomous. i think that's worth $1. >> trillion in terms. >> of valuation. >> the federal road map will now. >> start to get paved. >> and that. that's ultimately from a. valuation perspective, i think autonomous and. robotics is more. >> than the company itself. >> so i get some of the brand. >> issues and maybe some of the headwinds in doge. and, you know, in terms of everything musk is doing in the beltway. but this continues. >> to. >> be the. bet for the ages in terms of musk betting on trump. and that's going. >> to hugely benefit. and that's why we think this golden buying. >> opportunity in terms of the sell off. >> so i'm sure that investors in the stock would agree with you. you know, the ones who have been in this they're they're passionate. they're committed. of course they think you know autonomous is the play here. but i still see a lot of frustration on social media about the performance lately. and even a couple of hours ago, musk was tweeting about how the boring company is building a tunnel in dubai or something. i mean, he has a lot going on. they prefer that his focus is more on tesla.

>> yeah. look, i think a few years ago that would. >> have been the preference. but i think the. reality is, i mean, even some of the stuff simon talked about, everything we're talking about in terms. >> of i. >> have in that front row seat. table in the trump administration that's bullish in terms of. >> ai innovation. i think more and more. >> projects, especially that that. >> come through and that he's going to drive and he's going to be. very important in the china tariff discussions. and they have a massive innovation line coming out in terms of optimus, in terms of autonomous everything we see with austin in terms of june. so those are going to hate, as they always do in tesla. but i just think this sell off here, i think it's just a massive buying opportunity. given we see a $2 trillion market cap on the horizon. >> tell me about the china business. you know, how much under threat is it and how what do you think might happen there on the tariff front? >> yeah. look, i think they're actually going to be least exposed when it comes to china, just because i think there will be exclusions when it comes to tariffs for apple, for tesla. some of the chips from nvidia.

and look 40% plus of demand as well as manufacturing comes out of china. but that's also why i mean musk is 10% politician 90% ceo. he plays well in the sandbox in beijing. they want that trophy case of musk and tesla in china. and he's one of the rare people, along with cook, that's able to be successful in china as well as the us. and i just don't i think a lot of sort of the worries there are well, overdone. i think growth will return in terms of the china market. >> all right. do you think that that is also makes musk's presence in presence in washington more help than hindrance? and how should competitors think about that? >> yeah, i mean, look, he's one of the rare ones that basically has that blessing from beijing. and that's something from a trump perspective. as we get into these tariffs that you'll see, you know, obviously coming up today and just over the coming months, he's going to be a huge asset for trump when it comes to china. he understands beijing has strong relationships in the government there. and also he understands i mean it

goes back to nvidia chips. everything we're seeing with apple. that's why the street i think is kind of staying in this game of high stakes poker. not as worried. that's what you're seeing in the stocks. but i do believe musk, despite all the sort of worries him having a front row seat in the white house, is bullish for tesla. and i think $1 trillion is the autonomous value. that's why i just view this as noise despite some of the pain in terms of the sell off. >> the only real pushback, you know, sort of the car buying community could ever give if they wanted to would be those who are turned off by his association with trump, who just politically feel, you know, a lot of the people who bought the teslas originally many, many years ago or maybe would be part of that buying set now, would he ever, do you think, walk away from some of these opportunities if he felt like it was damaging the brand? >> look, i think maybe years ago, but not today. and look, i think the reality is that there could be some brand damage. and we've seen some of that in europe, maybe a little in the us. but i think it's contained and it just goes back to the benefits far outweigh any of the

negatives in terms of that front row seat. because autonomous, autonomous, that is the treasure. that's the gold in terms of what i view as the core value. and then especially optimus and others. and i think, you know, any of the sort of negatives we've seen here i view as near-term, i think longer term it's going to be known as the bet for the ages. in terms of musk's bet on trump. >> and waymo is already there. now, lyft and mobileye are coming. dan thank you. appreciate your time today. thank you. dan ives of wedbush securities on tesla. speaking of doge, let's check out shares of iron mountain, which are lower on mixed results this morning. but they also got hit this week after elon musk mentioned one of the company's facilities as an example of government inefficiency. doge posted on x that federal employee retirements are processed using paper by hand in an old limestone mine in pennsylvania. 700 mine workers operate 230ft underground to process about 10,000 applications per month, which are stored in manila envelopes and cardboard boxes.

now on iron mountain's earnings call today, the ceo actually said doge was a growth opportunity, saying they work for more than 200 federal government agencies. but the physical storage that was referenced accounts for half a percent of their total volume, and only about $10 million in revenue. while data center and digitization represents about $130 million in revenue. wells fargo is telling investors to relax and don't believe the doge noise. they view the recent decline as a big overreaction. maintain an overweight rating a one. 25 price target. the shares are at 97 today. coming up apple quietly flirting with its best week in nearly a year, teasing some new product launches as well. and teaming up with alibaba to launch apple intelligence in china. will it jump start the iphone sales in the second largest market? that's next. and as we await the president's remarks on reciprocal tariffs, here's what snap-on ceo told cnbc about the impact they'll have on his business. >> what kind of a poster child for american manufacturing? 80% of what. >> we sell off those vans in the

tools group is. >> made right here in america. and a hand tools 50% labor. so we've been able to do that for a long time because we customize the product. so that works for us. and so the import tariffs aren't really a big factor. of course we're not immune to them. but we are very. >> resistant to. >> the effect the. retaliatory tariffs. it depends on which market you're talking about. canada. we have some we have pretty good sales into canada. pretty good sales into canada. so we'd have to figure ichi, ni, san, shi... (1, 2, 3, 4...) ruri never thought she would live out her dream. then one day, she did. you were made to chase your passions. we were made to put them in a package. i had the worst dream last night. you were in a car crash and the kids and i were on our own. that's awful, hon. my brother was

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success as my own because when they grow, we grow with them. for over. 25 years, we've been committed to arias, and that's why i chose tradepmr. >> for 32 years. red chip has been discovering tomorrow's blue chips today with early research on starbucks, celsius, daktronics, winnebago and more. now we bring you red chat, an innovative ai solution which gives you answers in seconds on over 2000 small cap stocks listed on the new york stock exchange and the nasdaq. visit red chip today and use red chat your eye. small cap assistant redcat. >> as a contractor, i find. >> sometimes the. >> most impactful thing you can say. >> is what you do on your own home. a couple. >> of. >> years ago. >> we put a. >> pool in our backyard. my wife and i. >> there was only. >> one choice for the decking around the new pool. we used timbertech because of the low

maintenance. >> on the product. >> you can install it and just enjoy it. >> for its lifetime. >> epay redwood. i mean, after one year. you're sanding and refinishing if you want to keep that sharp. look, if you don't want to sand and oil every year, you want low maintenance, go with timbertech. >> welcome back to the exchange. i'm pippa. stevens with your cnbc news update. the aircraft carrier uss harry s truman collided with the. >> merchant vessel in egypt late. >> last night. >> but the navy says the nuclear powered carrier did not. >> sustain any flooding or damage. >> to its propulsion systems, and no injuries were reported. pennsylvania governor josh shapiro today sued the. trump administration over the federal funding. >> freeze. >> alleging the. >> state agencies. >> hadn't received the $1.2 billion they. >> were owed. >> even though the courts have ordered the money released. the funds in question are for public health, clean energy and water initiatives, and rural job creation. and in. >> gaines county, texas. >> nine patients have been hospitalized with measles, the state's health services department said. no one in the

group of at least 24 reported cases was immunized. that includes 22 children. health officials warned there could be more cases because the disease is highly infectious, according to the cdc. u.s. vaccination rates for measles have been falling in recent years. kelly, back to you. >> all right, pippa, thank you very much. meantime, apple securing an important deal in its key market. china now partnering with alibaba for iphone ai features in the country and hoping to revamp its falling sales there. steve kovach has more in today's tech check. and they just teased a new product. steve. but maybe that's unrelated. >> it's sort of related, but we'll get to that in a minute. and by the way, the folks in cupertino probably woke up this morning a little upset that joe tsai, the chairman of alibaba, ruined their announcement, saying that alibaba is now going to be the partner for apple intelligence in china when that product eventually does launch. this is sort of the role that chatgpt serves kelly in on the us version of apple intelligence. now alibaba is going to be taking over that. and this comes at a time where

things are really struggling there for apple over in china. sales were down 11% in the december quarter. and that's on top of the 13% drop they saw the year before that. and as far as when we are expecting this to happen, we got some little tea leaves to read here. i guess you could say. and march. there's going to be a developer session for chinese developers to talk about apple intelligence and what they can do there. and then in april, tim cook told us this actually two weeks ago, chinese languages are going to launch on apple intelligence. now, he didn't necessarily say that's going to be part of the apple intelligence launch in china, but that is a good hint at when we can expect this to launch. and by the way, assuming this does happen in spring, this won't be reflected until the june quarter at the very earliest. on top of that, amid all these struggles in china, you have these china subsidies from the government for smartphones and other devices that will include some of the iphone 16. in the meantime, you see how shares are reacting here

because of this news. since monday, when it first broke and since confirmed today apple is up. let's see about five, almost 6% this week. and you have baba up nearly 14%. and then as you said tim cook just a couple of hours ago, tweeting a new product launch is going to happen next week on the 19th. this is likely the iphone se. that's that entry level iphone. that's not exciting. it's not exciting. it's the cheaper iphone. they take older designs, put in newer parts in there, sell it for a couple hundred bucks cheaper. is that going. >> bringing this back to the market because. >> they do it every 3 or 4 years. they update this one. this is not a you know, it's for people who want the entry level, but it's going to be the first time they have no home buttons on any iphones for sale. >> interesting. okay. so the alibaba news is significant. i mean, for starters, i still think of it as an e-commerce company, which it's clearly not lost in the deep sea news a couple of weeks ago was the fact that alibaba came out and said it thought that its models were even better. so they've basically been chosen by apple as the partner here. >> yeah. and it's not just that

the information reported. and we actually asked tim cook about this a couple of weeks ago. like have you looked at deep sea and, you know, they look at everything, but about a year ago or a little, little less than a year ago, we got these reports that baidu was actually the one that they were looking at. and we've since heard that their chat bot is not good enough. we got some comments earlier this week that they're having a new version of it. ernie. >> ernie is all the rage like a year ago. >> and ernie bot doesn't seem to be living up to the promise. and it seems like apple has now decided that alibaba, they can at least fulfill what they need to do. because keep in mind, chatgpt is banned in china. the government has to approve it. and the stakes are incredibly high here because china, as i said, the business was down 11%. there's no sign of these headwinds slowing down anytime soon. >> they compete in china if they don't have an ai feature, if they can't use american large language models, they're going to have to use a chinese. >> and they are using an american large language model. and so the apple intelligence has its own large language model made by apple. but the other stuff that is just not smart enough to do yet they need a third party like chatgpt. maybe

google will eventually get in there, but in china, of course, all those services are banned. they need a homegrown player, and it looks like alibaba is going to be it. >> very interesting steve, for now. thanks. appreciate it steve kovach. and before we go check out meta. sticking with the mag seven. it's now we know it's been on this 18 day win streak. highly unusual in history in stock market history. it's trying to make it 19 days but it's actually kind of weakening throughout the session. down 1% or so if things turn around for some reason and it goes positive, 19 would be the longest of any current s&p company since 2000. its shares nevertheless are up 18% in this period of time. and coming up, the president sending officials overseas in an effort to broker a peace deal between russia and ukraine. but atlantic council ceo fred kemp warns that russia's frozen assets, along with u.s. sanctions, could be key and would have a major impact on global energy markets. fred will join us to explain, and as we continue to await trump's comments on reciprocal tariffs as well, we will bring you those headlines as soon as things get underway. the exchange is back after this.

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have time to do you first time consignors get $100 extra terms apply. >> earning season on cnbc takes you inside the numbers. and when the ceos have a big announcement, they come here first. >> a wild. >> hour of. >> earnings. >> earnings, season special coverage all this month on cnbc. >> welcome back. president trump making a big push to end the russia ukraine war. dispatching vice president vance and the

treasury secretary to europe for talks with ukraine's president. while trump himself had phone calls with both russia and ukraine's leaders yesterday saying he and both of them want peace. here now to discuss the chances of a real resolution or truce is fred kemp. he's president and ceo of the atlantic council. a cnbc contributor, and i believe he's on the ground in munich at the security conference. fred, welcome. >> yes, that's where i am. kelly, it's good to hear from you. and i just came in town from dubai, so i've been in the middle. >> east. >> this week as well. >> you know, there was some reporting that european leaders were caught off guard by these potential peace talks. but trump has made it very clear, even on the campaign trail, his efforts would be to kind of resolve this as quickly as possible. >> yeah. that's right. you get two responses, and they're different in tone in the middle east than they are here in europe. the one is that this is really promising because you need to de-conflict great power conflict. and he can defuze it because he's pragmatic. he's

transactional. he non-ideological. he'll get the deal done. and then the and that's in the middle east with iran. that's here with russia. that's also with asia, with china. the downside, the people who are pessimists about this say that he's not thinking of second order consequences. he could make a deal with russia that would go over the heads of kyiv. that would only encourage putin to go in the wrong direction. and of course, here in munich, you have a lot of history in the background. in 2007, putin's speech here, which shocked everybody, was really the beginning of his revenge, his turn against the west, ending in the war in ukraine two years ago. and now people who are born in that year, in 2007, boys in russia are going to their deaths in ukraine. and it all started here in 2007. and of course, in 1938, chamberlain appeased hitler. and so everyone here is knowing that this is

going to be a historic moment this week, but is it going to be one of a positive nature or one to be more concerned about? >> is there anything you think investors need to contemplate? of course, we saw a move lower in the price of oil on hopes that you kind of take out the geopolitical risk premium. >> well, i didn't see where russia ended today, but it started with a 5% boost. the ruble strengthened. so people are making a bet that over time, sanctions could be lifted on russia. perhaps they'll even get back some of their assets. that's a long way in the future. the most interesting thing to me, and it's not been commented on nearly enough, was secretary vicente's trip to ukraine, where he's negotiating. it seems to be he's negotiating arms against critical minerals. and ukraine has rare earths, critical minerals. we all know that's the supply chain of modern power and modern influence. and it also is encouraging to ukrainians because if the us is interested in their minerals, if the us is

interested in its sovereignty and its independence and the defense secretary hegseth said that said that plainly, that could be good news for ukraine, that the us will have good reason for it to arm it a little bit better, give it some security and engage in a long term relationship. >> in other words, you think that's maybe something the defense investor should be thinking about as well, that we're trying to strike a deal that would provide them with defense systems and weapons in exchange for access to their rare earths. >> well, trump has said that if putin doesn't go in the right direction, that he would arm the he would arm ukraine to the teeth. and we'll see how this plays out. if he wants a nobel peace prize and people around him says he'd like to have that, he's not going to do it by by appeasing putin. so i think the people who right now are worrying that trump is going to give away ukraine to russia. i think this far too early to

worry in that direction. and there's enough to balance it out. there's reason for concern, but there's also some reason to think that you could reach a peace deal that could make ukraine more secure and over time, be integrated in the westo bring it into nato. >> what do you think would be kind of the next step? so if, for instance, we were to see a truce struck that basically kept more or less the current borders of ukraine, what they are kind of acknowledged that russia's gains through the war in that territory and ukraine is not a nato member. does the rest of europe have to worry that russia's plans would then advance to poland and beyond, or is that concern overblown? >> well, i mean, let's not forget in 1938, when chamberlain allowed the sudetenland of the czech republic to go to hitler, they thought they were buying a peace by giving up land and territory. and that's the fear here that trump would be willing to give up the 20% of ukraine

that's currently occupied, occupied for russia, for a peace that wouldn't hold. the more positive side of this is talks behind the scenes right now with europeans. you could have some sort of dividing line, as in north and south korea, where you'd have international troops, european troops, non-european troops is what the us is saying. they are saying they don't want u.s. troops involved. and you could have a dividing line with a well armed ukraine peace area that's enforced by european and other troops. that could allow ukraine to take in foreign investment, allow it to grow, allow it to recover from war, and also put ukraine in a position where russia couldn't attack it again, very easily at all. that's what you really want to happen. >> we're beginning to get comments from the president out of as fred, the question to the to gaza. what are you hearing there on the prospects for a

quite different future for that area than what we've seen some of the president's suggestions? >> well, that's where you're hearing some really discordant voices in the middle east. the old saying that you have to take trump seriously, but not literally. i think that's the way the middle east is thinking about this right now. but he keeps repeating it every time with the with the king of jordan. he keeps repeating his earlier idea that he wants the us to take this over. i don't think anyone sees that that could be the outcome, and that perhaps what he's doing is providing netanyahu some cover with his coalition to ultimately make a deal with the saudis and this deal over the future of gaza. >> that would be interesting a lot for investors to kind of be listening for. fred, really appreciate you making the time in the middle of that important conference. thanks so much tonight. >> nlds history in motion is great to be on with you. >> it's true. fred kempe with the atlantic council. meantime, back here at home, the cybersecurity firm sailpoint has made its debut on the nasdaq. it's returned to public markets.

the first trade just crossed. kristina partsinevelos has the details. christina. they're all cheersing upstairs. >> you can't hear it. >> but this is a. texas based cybersecurity firm. >> like you mentioned. they announce pricing at. >> 23 bucks per. >> share on ticker sale. >> for its upsized offering of 60 million shares, well above its initial range. the deal includes 57.5 million shares from sailpoint, itself. >> another two and a half from existing stockholders. >> marking really. >> a significant. >> return to the public markets. >> even though prices are a little bit below 23 bucks right now, i use the. word return because this company is no stranger to. >> public markets. >> it first. >> went public in 2017, three. >> years after. >> its initial acquisition. >> by thoma. >> bravo, before. >> being taken private again. >> in 2022. >> through a $6.9. >> billion. >> deal by the same private. >> equity firm. >> while this. current ipo implies a massive paper gain of more than. >> $4 billion. >> for bravo. >> compared. to their. 2022 purchase price of 6.9 billion. >> investors should note this isn't an immediate exit for the

private equity firm, since they aren't selling any shares in this offering. since thoma bravo's takeover. >> sailpoint has really. >> doubled its recurring revenue. >> to. >> over $800 million. and that's. >> because you've seen. >> strength in the competitive cybersecurity space. >> it's there's. >> stricter data privacy regulations, there's a surge in global cyber attacks. and fortunately and the rise of ai driven security threats. so this company also serves some major clients, gm and hershey's. and there's over, what, 30 employees upstairs about to sip on the champagne that's been sitting idly for the past few hours before they went public. >> i'm not breaking out the champagne until i get an ipo that pops 20%. i don't know how much longer we're going to have to wait. christina. well, everybody. >> is saying that this is the year, right? the return of some of the ipos. i don't know if we're going to see a 20% pop just based off of the initial movement in this stock. there were about 1.6 million buyers, i should say, on the sidelines waiting all morning for the stock to go out. so there is some buyers, but you can see in the reaction right now below 23

bucks. >> listen, a lot of people would say this is this is a better outcome that you don't want these kind of like big pops on the first day that only reward the insiders and all the rest of it. so public investors, here's your chance. you can get in on the ipo price for all of these companies which have not. okay. >> the nice sales pitch kelly. >> that's right. christina. thank you. christina. partsinevelos. and before we go check out shares of arm, which are popping on a financial times report that they plan to launch their own chip and have secured meta as one of their first customers. the ceo is set to unveil the new chip this summer, according to people familiar with the plans. an arm is now up about 6% helps softbank as well. coming up, shares of reddit are lower today, down as much as 15% after the bell yesterday. but they've trimmed that. following that miss on user growth, the company said it was due to a change in google's search algorithm, but that its search traffic has since recovered. they did beat on both the top and bottom lines. perhaps that's helping. shares are now down only about 6.5%. morgan stanley said to buy the google blip dip and reiterated its overweight

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>> welcome back. the market actually moving a little bit higher as we get some headlines on trump's reciprocal tariffs. megan costello with the details megan. >> kelly trump is speaking right now to reporters in the oval office. and we're getting a few more details now about what exactly he means and is going to do with these reciprocal tariffs. he's saying first, they have decided to charge these reciprocal tariffs. and what he's explaining here is that they're not only going to be matching tariff rates in other countries, but they're are going to be considering things like value added tax systems and other non-tariff barriers will also be considered as they go country by country, they say, and deciding what tariff rate to impose on other countries. he

listed things like transshipments sending merchandise through another country to avoid tariffs. he says that will not be accepted. he says non-monetary tariffs, such as tests on cars, presumably referring to some sort of regulation that that will be accounted for here as well. he says limitations on trade will not be accepted and that howard lutnick, the commerce secretary, he will be the one coming up with numbers equivalent to those limitations and other non-tariff barriers as he decides which tariff rate to put in place on other countries. trump says that other countries can either reduce their own tariffs or eliminate their trade barriers. so leaving the door open here to some negotiation. he also is celebrating that the eu lowered its tariff to 2.5%. presumably that's an allusion to the eu's tariff on american cars. they had a 10% tariff on u.s. cars. ours is about 2.5%. there had been reports earlier this week that they were agreeing to lower those. trump celebrating that in the oval office right now. and he says that the reciprocal tariff system will bring fairness back. and we're going to have a level playing field kelly. so still a

lot more coming out here and a lot more details to parse through. but so far we know a little bit about where the president is heading. >> thank you megan. megan costello will continue to bring us those headlines. again the market not a huge move if anything. dow's been drifting slightly higher throughout the hour. and meantime a big legal win for the white house. the federal judge declined to block that deferred buyout program. the fork email. remember it's just one of many measures the trump administration and elon musk's dodge have implemented, and their efforts to slash spending and waste moves say some are reminiscent of the tech startup adage to move fast and break things. but musk isn't the only one bringing that ethos to washington. my next guest is a vc who's going back to the future with his investing strategy, returning to his d.c. roots. joining me now is bradley tusk, ceo of tusk venture partners. can we call you a fixer? bradley, welcome. >> yeah. >> i don't. >> take offense at it. it's okay with me. >> okay. you're most well known for your work with uber, with other startups who kind of become so successful, they run afoul of regulators, regulators, inevitably. there are a lot of

those these days, i would imagine. >> yes. >> there are. >> i mean, and obviously ai is really the biggest opportunity here because you have this technology that you guys probably spend at least 40% of your time talking about, one way or another that. >> we think. >> can. >> transform basically. >> everything, and yet it's completely unregulated. >> and what we know is there needs to be regulation. does there leaving? yes, absolutely. >> what are a few things you heard vice president pence? he basically said, look, the risk now is that we tamp out this new innovation and do more harm than good before we know exactly how best to regulate this. >> yeah. >> that is. >> i agree with that. >> you certainly don't want the eu. >> level of regulation where you end up just stalling. >> all innovation entirely. but you also don't want a repeat of internet 2.0 here in the us, where we did nothing to regulate social media. and you have an epidemic of teenagers killing themselves, right? that's not okay. >> people use that example all the time. but what exact regulation do they want then? >> section 230. >> so the. >> specific regulation that would change that is the

platforms are not liable for the content posted by their users. and as a result, if i post something defamatory about you or something terrible on instagram, you can sue me, but you can't sue meta. they're the only industry that has this, so the regular cnbc does not have the same level of protection. and ultimately it creates this very perverse incentive where if you are meta or tiktok or any platform and your goal is to generate returns for your shareholders, that's your job. you know that human beings have a negativity bias, and we are far more likely to click on negative headlines and positive headlines. and so you actually make more money by promoting toxic content because that generates more clicks, which generates more revenue. >> for just a second. we're going to go to washington. a few more headlines on tariffs. megan, what can you tell us kelly. >> the president has just now officially signed the order on the reciprocal tariffs. and so what i can tell you now is that we had a chance to hear from a white house official a few minutes ago, and we can report

it now that the order is signed with the actual details on what exactly is going on here. and the point i want to emphasize is the white house is going much further than simply matching tariff rates around the world. they have laid out five criteria they'll be considering from all different countries, and deciding what sort of rate to put on each country on a customized basis. they're going to be looking at not just the tariff rates on u.s. products, bu a taxes, including the vat tax in europe, non-tariff measures including subsidies or regulation, exchange rates, as well as any attempts to devalue currency, as well as this blanket catchall kelly quote any other policies the us determines is an unfair limitation. so they are writing this in a very broad way, in a way that they can evaluate everything that other countries are doing to impose some sort of what they determine to be a reciprocal measure. now, as for the rollout and the timing moving forward, there could be a long lead time here. the ustr and commerce will submit a report quickly suggesting tariff rates on a country by country basis. they might start on with countries that have the largest trade deficits. it could be on a staggered basis. they're the omb

and russell vought will also be doing a fiscal impact report that will take up to 180 days. but white house officials say tariffs might not have to wait for that entire 180 day review to be done. a white house official said it could be, quote, a matter of weeks, a few months, but not much longer than that. so longer than that april 1st date that we were talking about at the top of the hour. kelly, there could be a long lead time here. but again, i want to emphasize this is far more sweeping than we had initially anticipated. >> okay, megan, thanks. i want to use the market test for now, which is there's there is still in stride. so please keep bringing us those headlines and we'll watch that. megan cassella and bradley tusk i guess i would ask you then, are you motivated by, you know, is it because it's v.c. winter because you're passionate about regulating ai or helping those companies, or because trump and his team present opportunities? you know, what do you see the next four. >> years being. >> a little bit of all of it? right. so just for a little context for the listeners, what i announced yesterday is rather than raising a fourth venture capital fund where we deploy outside capital, i'd like to do

what i did with uber and clear and fanduel, a lot of other companies where we work with them, solve their regulatory problems in return for equity. and then i write checks out of my own family office into those companies instead, rather than using outside capital. to me, that is a more lucrative model that also lets me focus on what i'm most interested in, which is how do you legalize disruptive technologies and kind of let me not focus on the things i don't really enjoy, like board seats and fundraising and lps and portfolio construction and things that to me aren't that aren't that interesting. but ultimately, yeah, i think there really is a tremendous opportunity here because we do have an administration that is much, much friendlier towards tech and towards innovation than we had under biden. and i think, you know, part of it is most tech regulation actually doesn't occur at the federal level. it's state and local. but i think that under biden, lina khan and the ftc and i'm not the first person to say this on your show, got to go. yeah, yeah, yeah. only just created a climate

where all m&a was just chill. >> i'm sorry the president took your time, but you're going to be very used to that. i understand it bradley tusk, understand it bradley tusk, thanks so much. we'll continue at&t has a new guarantee. because most things in business are not guaranteed. like a distraction-free work environment. -yeah,i'll circle back around. -get those steps in, kevin. your coworkers keeping things confidential. [phone ringing] oh, she's spilling all the tea. ♪♪ or office etiquette. yeah, that's not guaranteed. i know you can see me! you know what at&t guarantees? connectivity you depend on, the deals you want, and the service you deserve. can i get that logo bigger? or we'll make it right. that's the at&t guarantee. >> individually each. >> of.

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(grandpa) i'm the richest guy in the world. (man 1) i have time to give. (man 2) i have people i can count on. (grandma) and a million stories to share. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts. >> to you. >> and welcome. >> to power lunch alongside. >> kelly. >> i am brian. >> all right. president trump in the. >> oval office. >> he is talking tariffs. >> we're going to talk about the potential impact. >> of. >> more tariffs on.ou