and squawk box begins right now. >> good morning and welcome to squawk box here on cnbc. we're live in the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm kelly evans along with joe kernen. this morning becky and andrew are off. u.s. equity futures. are they. yeah they're off too. the dow is down 123 points implied at the open. s&p down six. nasdaq down 12. but we've seen this pattern where we're weaker in the morning. and then sometimes we turn around by the afternoon once it's tariff time as i like to call it, that comes after gains. and yes we're talking about gains yesterday. the dow was up 342 points. the s&p was up 1%. the nasdaq was up 1.5%. treasury yields have moved higher this week. but they were a little bit more contained yesterday the ten year at 4.52.

actually they were down pretty nicely after the ppi report. the implied pce bitcoin also has been a good risk gauge. and there it is at 97,000. so giving us a bit of a green light. >> today don't. >> cut if. >> they don't cut. >> after these inflation reports can be i think it's be tough for bitcoin. they need. we had someone earlier this week say 125 basis points this year. that would be bitcoin would go. >> up on that. >> if they don't cut. >> but bitcoin's going up anyway. >> at 97. >> that's not good enough for you is it. >> 97,000 for you. >> because when i told. >> you stay away from that. >> stupid two. >> year and. >> put. it in bitcoin. >> you laughed at me. that was like 27,000, wasn't it? >> one of. >> the worst trades maybe of all time. >> on my end. >> yeah. >> on my end. >> i know i begged you. >> the old man begged the young. person who can take. >> all the risk and you still do. >> you know, i wrote. >> a culpa about. >> all that, did you? i said how i learned to stop worrying and. >> love the. >> stock market. >> bitcoin was a. >> problem that two year you bought. i don't. >> know what.

>> you put into it, but i think now. you might be able to buy not. just dinner, but you might get an appetizer. after two. >> years. >> you might. >> pay taxes. >> on and you got to like. >> what was the point of this? >> do you know though, that. >> oh. >> wow, that sounded. >> like the. >> voice of god. you're going to want to stop us. >> later because. >> there's going to be no. >> governor with. >> you here. i'm going. >> to be, i can't be, i'm going to reign. >> it in. >> but i will. >> just say. >> that the day after tariff day. >> which tariff. >> day yesterday. >> oh, yeah. >> the sun came up again. the constitution. >> is. apparently intact. democracy. >> i checked this morning. democracy has not ended. >> we will. >> there will. >> be no singing of songs here. >> you're not going to like this. >> but we're less than a percent off all time highs. >> we so shrugged it off yesterday that i started to think to myself, maybe we need to be taking this more seriously if i did. >> if you listen to the breathless reporting of legacy media, you would think we're down 30%. >> i've been you. >> would think i was very concerned. >> about. >> mexico, what, 25% tariffs on mexico and canada? i guess it's

never going to happen. >> we need to talk today about what is with if. it is reciprocal and it's hard for us to sometimes it's not just tariffs. it's other barriers to entry. >> that we're going to need to. >> estimate to. >> find out. exactly what. >> but what what do these countries why have they been able to do this. >> for so long? >> and what's their rationale for doing that to us? >> i actually. >> think a lot of people, myself included, are sitting here going, yeah, why? why have why has that been happening? right. you know. >> i mean, okay. >> you're not the united states. that doesn't give you the right just because you're not as successful economically as that doesn't mean that you should be. >> that all of a sudden, okay, you're doing. >> so well, you. >> got that. we can just protect the that thing i think is interesting. so the value added tax and the idea that, you know, that kind of disguises, you know, some of the extra cost of u.s. goods and how we might respond to that. and, you know, i still get people saying that they think we're going to do a that could. do you think trump

would ever do? >> i don't think. >> we're doing a that. >> i hope not. >> it's not until april. >> right. and we've. >> got a. the first time around. >> we. >> saw it was going to come. didn't happen. moved to march. renegotiating you know things happening. >> supposedly some. >> people say trump gave in. >> other people. >> say mexico and. >> canada gave in. >> but by april. >> we'll see. but if the market. >> is smart and. >> knows what's going to. >> happen. >> eventually and discounts. >> it, we haven't. >> seen anything yet. >> that means right? >> right at all time highs. >> the only real thing that's happened so far, 10% on china and steel and aluminum. >> that's good. damon, you got any. >> hair left? >> damon i know it was. >> been. >> on fire. he's in washington. >> he was in. >> the oval office. >> for president. >> trump's tariffs announcement. >> you look good. you look fine. you're holding. >> up well. >> can you confirm. >> the. >> constitution and. >> democracy are still intact? >> as of. >> as of. >> right now. >> now they. >> still still clicking. >> the main part. >> of. >> my body that was suffering yesterday, joe, was my feet. the president kept us standing for an hour in the oval office

taking questions. he did it with, you know, without any notes. top of the head responded to every question on every topic, literally for an hour in the oval office. so it was a fascinating you. this has got to be good. >> this has got to. >> be good for you to have. >> i think. >> any commander in chief. >> that is so he's always around. >> i mean, he's. >> always on. >> every time you turn on the. >> tv, there. >> he is. >> like nodding. and talking. and saying, you know, likes of a journalist. >> the great thing as a journalist, the great thing that we got yesterday, was a really unvarnished look into the way the president thinks. right? he answered. like i say, he answered every question. he talked to every reporter who came in in the pool. although they're blocking the ap. but other than that, you know, we get great access and we get the ability to talk directly to the president. i think every reporter in in the world. >> would say. >> that's that's an unvarnished good thing. >> yeah. let me tell you. >> i like that. >> i don't know what you're talking about. >> for a second i thought, come on in, the water's fine. >> you mean the pool.

>> of reporters jargon? >> yeah, the press pool. right. so when they. >> do these events. >> in the oval office, right? >> they can't bring in every reporter. there's like 150 reporters on campus. they can't bring in everybody. so there's a smaller group that goes in on behalf of everybody else, and they feed all their material out in a shared way so that the rest of the media can use it. >> that's called the. >> press pool. >> that's a smaller group. the oval office is not that big, so they can't bring everybody in there. they'd knock over the lamps and. >> stuff and. >> get footprints on the couch. so you can't do that. >> all right. >> now i'm told. >> to let you. >> let me tell you. >> the news from yesterday. >> yes. >> give it to us. >> thanks. >> okay. >> so president trump, what he did yesterday was sign a presidential memorandum. it authorized the government to conduct a study into reciprocal tariffs and to issue a report to him by april 1st. and that's when we expect. those reciprocal tariffs might start to go into effect. and in the oval office, he also, as i say, took questions from a number of reporters on a wide range of topics for nearly an hour. i asked him about the role that elon musk is playing in this administration. when musk meets

with foreign leaders like narendra modi, which he did yesterday, i asked, is musk representing tesla or is he representing the us government? here's what the president said. >> they met and i assume he wants to do business in india. but india is a very hard place to do business in because of the tariffs. they have the highest tariffs just about in the world and it's a hard place to do business now. i would imagine he met possibly because you know he's running a company. >> so trump they're clarifying that when elon musk meets with narendra modi, he's meeting as a representative of tesla, not necessarily as the us government, even though he's playing this enormous role now in the us government. i also asked whether trump thinks chinese leader xi jinping would sell tiktok if trump can line up an american buyer. here's how he responded to that one. >> we have a lot of people interested in tiktok, and i hope to be able to make a deal. i

think it would be good. you know, people have learned it's very popular and we'll have to probably get approval from china to do it. but we have a lot of people that are interested and a lot of people, i think china will be interested because it's to their benefit to. >> trump. they're saying. >> that it. >> is in xi jinping's best interest to sell tiktok. >> so we'll. >> see how that negotiation proceeds. he also. >> said. >> he'd like to have face. >> to face. >> meetings with xi jinping. >> and with. >> vladimir putin. he told me it's not important to him where that happens in the united states or overseas, or who calls who first. the important thing to him is direct personal contact with those leaders, he said. that will happen after things settle down, so we'll see how long it takes. >> for things. >> to settle down until until we. >> see that. >> series of summits. >> which the white. house is. >> clearly contemplating, but not necessarily organizing yet, guys. >> and i don't think any of this. >> is slowing down. i don't think it's going to be 100 day thing. and then. >> and then we relax. >> it's, you know. >> it is a firehose. >> we said. >> that so many times i, you

know. >> i myself i'm tired of me. >> saying that that it's, you know, we're. >> drinking from a fire hose. >> but if. >> we. >> go from. >> doge and. >> tariffs and these. >> executive orders to. >> negotiating with. >> with zelensky. >> and putin. >> on ending. >> that war, i mean. >> can you imagine if. >> if, if. >> that becomes. >> part of it, tiktok. and china, taiwan. >> i mean. i'm sure taiwan. >> that's next. >> it's just unbelievable. >> how quickly. >> i guess it's that. >> you know, einstein. >> identified it. >> with general relativity. >> it's time dilation. >> things are quantum. >> things are happening. >> more quickly, aren't they? >> and the nuances are really important here. >> right? i mean, for wall street, following. >> all this can be, you know, as you say, drinking from a fire hose. it's exhausting. there's a lot. >> but. >> you know. the nuances do matter to wall street. >> i was the first to report. yesterday that the president was not going to actually impose tariffs that would take effect yesterday, which is what a lot of people had been expecting. and that there would be this time. >> delay till. >> april 1st. and once we

reported that on cnbc, you know, you saw this wave of relief on wall street, as i think we saw stocks melt up a little bit as people said, oh, this isn't happening today. i think wall street generally doesn't want tariffs. just because that puts sand in the gears of the global economy. i asked trump, you know, what do you what's your message to wall street. and he said this is going to be great. these tariffs are going to be great. you know nobody should be concerned at all. >> clearly wall. >> street was concerned and melted up when it was clear that the tariffs weren't actually. >> going. >> into place yesterday. >> it's like so. >> many things where. >> it gets. >> you thinking. >> i. >> don't know. >> what finally. >> happens a lot of times. >> a lot of times, the worst case scenario doesn't come. >> to pass. but kelly and i were talking earlier. what's the deal with these? >> you know. >> you got. >> these tariffs on us. tell us why. tell us why that's fair. >> and why. >> we shouldn't. >> just try to get you. maybe not. >> eventually put tariffs on.

>> yourself but get you. >> to take them. >> off it. >> could that be the. >> end result. >> no i heard your i heard your conversation earlier and i think, you know, if you look at the history of this and. >> i'm not an economic historian, but. >> i think a lot of this. >> is to do with the cold war mentality over the past. 70 years. >> or so. >> that the united states tolerated. >> a lot of. >> that kind of behavior in terms. >> of imposing. >> tariffs from countries where we needed alliances. >> against the russians. >> in terms of the zero sum game of the. >> cold war. >> and so if somebody that you were doing business with, it. >> was allowing. >> you to have a business militarily, i. >> mean. >> was allowing you to have bases in their country. >> was at. least nominally on the. >> democracy side. >> of the ledger, you would tolerate some of those. tariffs because you'd say. >> well. >> they. have to buck up their. >> economy and. >> we need them to be a bulwark. and so therefore. >> that's a price. >> that we're willing to pay. >> you know, that whole structure. >> and way of thinking is gone now. >> and some of. >> those things. >> are a. legacy of that. and trump is trying to reverse it.

>> now, there's a lot of concern. >> and the journal. >> big. >> piece today. >> don't give away. >> everything before you even start negotiating. i don't. >> know whether that's. >> happening with, you know, putin is. >> a he's a crafty i'll call him evil. >> but he's. >> a diabolical. >> individual that. >> that would. >> be laughing all the way to the. >> bank if we wanted. >> peace so badly. >> you know, that, that. >> it's just going to be and. >> we're going to be reporting on. >> it a lot. >> and that's what. >> i'm talking about. >> and there's an old. >> saying, right. >> don't don't. negotiate with yourself. right. >> negotiate with the other guy. >> don't start offering concessions. >> we all i mean. >> he's right. >> a million. >> soldiers. >> that no one. >> i mean. >> we want. it'd be really good for that to. >> to end, but not in. >> a way. that is unfair. >> to. >> ukraine or. >> or that sends a bad, sends a bad, bad signal. >> all right. >> eamon javers. >> i'll tell you, joe, a. >> lot. >> of people are thinking about once that war ends and the united states pulls sanctions off of russia, what does that mean for western firms looking

to. >> reinvest in russia? >> there's a lot of assets there. putin i can. >> tell you. >> behind the. >> scenes. >> he's already talking g8. >> come on in. no nato in ukraine and taking. >> steps behind the scenes to drive up russian asset prices. ahead of that. right. he wants russians who have cash on the sidelines to invest in russian assets. now does putin is worried about this wave of american. >> and western. >> companies coming in and buying up russian assets on the cheap. he saw that in the 90s. he thinks that was. >> a disaster. he doesn't want to. >> see it again. >> that is fascinating. >> wow. and that was good. >> a good. >> job yesterday. on the tariff. >> thing. aiming to. >> have that first. >> you helped. >> me out. >> yeah. that was right before 1 p.m. >> yeah. >> we were like. >> yeah i. timed it. >> for you kelly. >> thank you. >> keep it up. >> what are you going to do today? you bet. all right. >> see you i. >> don't know. >> coming up, we have some economic data, retail sales, import prices due at 830. we'll get you ready for the trading day next. and later, maryland governor wes moore will join us to talk taxes and his budget

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prescription that's right for you at wrexham.com. >> welcome back. futures are under some pressure this morning after yesterday's pretty strong session. the major averages are still on track to end the week higher. joining us now is stacey sears, portfolio manager over at emerald advisors. stacey what have we learned this week. welcome. >> welcome. thank you. >> thank you so much for having

me i appreciate it. >> well i think that we learned. >> that the. >> market is. >> handling a lot of. >> this news in pretty good stead. >> i think the s&p. is on track for to be slightly. >> positive this week. >> the russell 2000. >> which. >> has been the most. inversely correlated to surges in. >> ten year. >> treasury yield, is on pace to be flat. >> so i would say. >> net net the market is navigating kind. >> of the volatility. >> of the week in. >> a. >> pretty good place. >> i thought this line from michael hartnett was interesting over b of a. he says he thinks that the hot cpi earlier this week is a blessing in disguise, because it means that trump's going to have to go small and not big on tariffs and maybe on immigration as well. >> i think that's. certainly an interesting perspective. we're not. >> really concerned. >> about the level of inflation. >> as we sit. >> here today. >> i know. >> that. >> we've we've seen an uptick. i think some of. >> the ppi. >> elements are indicating that the transmission to pce. >> which is the, you know, is the indicator that powell is

most focused. >> on. is not quite as significant. it looks to be running up right in that 2.5%. >> and if you remember. >> when the. >> fed reset the expectations. >> in the. >> summary of economic projections for. >> 2025, we. >> did see those inflation. expectations for core pce. >> move slightly higher. and they're sitting. >> right. in that. >> kind of two and a half. >> to 2.7 range. >> so we're pretty. >> comfortable that the fed is the fed is in the right place. >> we don't. >> believe inflation. >> is running away. and if you take a look at kind of. >> the long run inflation. >> expectations inside of the recently released new york fed. consumer expectations. >> index, the one in the three year are. firmly pinned at that 3% level. >> now that's a great point because it was right after that kind of worrisome number the friday before from michigan. so i'm just kind of looking through stacy, your note. so how are you positioning. just kind of talk us through you know is it you know we're saying we're just near all time highs in the stock market. you know there's been tech didn't do as well in

january. i don't know if you have to worry about that or if you just kind of say broadly exposed. what's your strategy. >> yeah i. think look, as we. >> sit here today on. >> the small cap side, we're seeing a lot of. >> encouraging data. >> points coming out. >> of the. >> early stages of earnings, where only 30% through the cycle. >> we trail that of the s&p. >> within the russell 2000. >> but i think what's encouraging from our. >> perspective is. >> that earnings growth is coming. >> in ahead of expectations. >> if you. >> recall. small caps. >> have essentially been in an earnings recession. >> over. >> the better. part of the last two years. the fourth quarter was the first quarter that we were expecting. >> that earnings to turn. >> positive year over year. >> and we're outpacing those expectations. >> so i think the earnings assumptions. >> were. >> for about 2% growth. we're tracking at high single digits. and i think what is also encouraging about that. >> is the breadth. >> of the outperformance. we're seeing really nice upside. >> within the financial. >> area, within healthcare, within technology. revision ratios are. >> turning positive. >> and typically for.

>> small caps. >> we start the year. >> with higher expectations. >> and. >> they get tamped down as the year progresses. >> and the fact that we're seeing those hold in, i think is a. very encouraging. >> sign for a. >> recovery in the asset. >> class that has lagged. >> for the better part of the last. >> three years. >> you know, i was going to say i, i they're they're dead to me. the small caps are i took them out i took them out of the retirement portfolio. i'm not i'm done. and i feel like it's not a forever thing. you know, it's just it's kind of a high inflation. >> high rates. >> you go, i don't know, why do i need this? >> look, i. >> think if you look. >> at the. >> small cap universe. >> as a percentage. >> of the overall equity universe, we. >> are at trough levels. >> if you look at concentration in the mega caps peak levels, there has to be a reconciliation. we don't believe that there are structural changes to the underlying index. >> what has. >> been lagging for small. >> is earnings. >> and we're starting to see that recover. the domestic economic economy continues to

stay strong. atlanta fed gdp is tracking to 2.9%. for small caps to historically do well from an earnings perspective. you look at something around two and a half. so we're trending better than that. and some of those headwinds to earnings we believe are starting to abate. if you look at borrowing costs. >> they are actually coming down. >> i know that's been a headwind to flows. but you are seeing that if you. >> look at the. >> secure overnight financing rate that's come down about 100 basis points. >> so we're seeing we're. >> definitely seeing some opportunity inside of all of those pressures are abating. and we think that's going to lead to better earnings growth which should lead to better performance. >> given where. >> valuations sit today. >> i'll just mention a couple. you guys like 89 bio ticker etn and ttm technologies tmi. so if people want to go check it out there if they're persuaded by your arguments stacy they can they can look into that. thanks so much for joining us this morning. really appreciate it. okay. >> thank you. >> coming up. >> gamestop is considering investments in crypto.

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>> figuring out if it makes sense. >> for the. >> business. >> and. >> could still decide. >> not to follow. >> through with the investments. >> last weekend. >> ceo ryan. >> cohen posted a. photo on. >> x with michael. >> saylor. >> co-founder of. >> microstrategy. >> one of. >> the. >> biggest holders of bitcoin. >> two of the. >> sources tell cnbc that saylor, though, is not. >> involved in gamestop's. >> discussion. >> about crypto. investments at this time. >> gamestop soared as much as. >> 20% in extended. >> trading following that report. >> it's not at that point. >> now, but it's still up. almost 10%. >> find it all sort of tiresome. >> what is a treasury investment or what's it got to? i don't. know how. >> well the whole idea that one of the, the bull thesis, as you know, for bitcoin is that corporate america is going to start putting it on the balance sheet. i don't know if that's exactly what. >> they're talking. >> i mean like microstrategy or something. >> i don't. >> want microsoft to do it. >> you know, all. >> the big. >> i've seen that. >> but i thought. >> in. >> the strategy. >> of what is. >> gamestop now?

>> it's got to we've always wondered how they transition from bricks and mortar to everything that you. get online for. >> gaming now. >> yeah, i'm not sure that saying we're going to hold bitcoin is you know you want to hold. you can just go hold bitcoin. and i know that strategy. you know acolytes think that they've you know reinvented the wheel here on a more profitable way to do so. but the idea that you're going to get bailed out as a company by adopting that not now more broadly whether companies start putting some of their cash in bitcoin fine. that's a little different. >> story in countries. >> right. countries. yeah. we're also watching shares of coinbase today, especially after robinhood's report earlier this week. now last night, coinbase's fourth quarter earnings and revenue shattered expectations. they cited the election of the pro crypto president and congress, the expectation of more regulatory. you know, they're talking about maybe even combining the cftc and sec. that's, again, one of these rumors in the bitcoin community. both of those things last night led to a rise in spot crypto trading activity. the past few months. coinbase was up yesterday 8% yesterday after robinhood's report, which detailed a big jump in crypto

trading. so it already kind of priced in some of these results. and then it's selling off about a half a percent. culturally i don't know cftc and. >> sec i. >> don't know how that. >> but there is this gap where like look at the meme coins, right. are they a security or are they not? >> i know, that's tough. >> do you need one big. >> in the old days to get. a cta? >> and i got one. >> i think it. >> was $50. and if you had $50, you could be a commodity. >> trading advisor. >> whereas the sec, i. >> mean. >> the series seven. >> and 63. >> and you had to do a. lot of stuff. and then you remember some of. >> the guys that ran. >> the cftc, you. >> know. >> they almost looked like. >> they were. >> in the commodities. >> i think. >> it's totally changed. >> totally. i know crypto. >> has. >> has changed. >> but it just culturally. >> it used. >> to be anything. >> what do you think the trump meme coin is. >> is it a kind. >> of know that i don't. what's the sorkin. >> coin a security right. >> i. >> don't i. >> don't know, i own it, but no,

i'm. >> kidding. >> i don't, i don't. >> i'm short. >> i'm sure. >> no i. don't i have no position. >> no position. >> coming up, three big stories in the chip industry. we'll definitely dive into that next. but as we go to break, take a quick look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers. super volatile moves lately for some of these companies. we'll be right back. >> after. >> the executive edge is sponsored by at&t business. next sponsored by at&t business. next level moments need the next it all started with a small business idea. it's a pillow with a speaker in it! that's right craig. pulling in the perfect team to get the job done. i'm just here for the internets. at&t, it's super-fast! you locked us out?! and when thrown a curveball... arrggghh! ahhhh! [crashing sounds] we had everything we needed. is the internet out? don't worry, we have at&t internet back-up. the next level network for small business.

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- i'm relying on luck, but who knows if it'll be on my side. vo: when it comes to disasters and emergencies, it's not a matter of if, but when. take control. 1. assess your needs 2. make a plan 3. engage your support network let's prepare so we all have a better story to tell. to three vetted fiduciary financial advisors@smartasset.com. >> good morning. >> and welcome back to squawk. >> box. >> live from the nasdaq market. >> site in times square. >> checking the. futures this morning. >> we are seeing a pullback. >> but we. >> had the dow up over 300. >> points yesterday down. >> about 150. >> this morning. moderna just. >> out with a quarterly results. >> company reporting a. >> loss of $2.91 a share. worse than expectations. >> for. >> 268 revenue. >> coming in at. >> $966 million. >> that was slightly. >> ahead of estimates. >> moderna's covid. >> 19. >> and rsv.

>> rsv virus vaccine. yeah. >> vaccines also topping. >> sales expectations. but for the full year, the company expects. >> revenue in. >> the range of 1.5. >> billion. >> to. >> 2.5 billion. the street. >> consensus is 2.43. >> that certainly does not tell the story. >> the shares are down 23% year. >> to date. >> i don't. >> even mean. >> in the past. >> i don't even mean a year to date. yeah. >> you. >> go back. >> i want. >> to go back. look at years. go back 3 or. >> 4 years. >> and these were at 141 last may. >> keep going. >> and they're at 31. >> keep going to where it was prior to that. >> i'm looking it up right now. >> i just got 450. yeah. >> in september of 2020. >> that's what that's what i'm talking about. >> yeah. so the 30 by 9030. >> right now. >> bad to. >> put all your eggs in in that vaccine basket. >> and you know innovation is what this whole stock market is all about. and like look at the. >> we thought. >> they had. >> cancer vaccine innovation. maybe they do. yeah. it's nice

to have vaccines that you can view almost as software when things change. but you got. >> a vaccine recently. >> i have to get the rsv one every time. >> the rsv. >> yeah. >> but you could could you get a covid every year? >> no, i got that one during covid. >> yeah. >> i'm not. >> i. >> don't. >> i don't think many people are getting it. >> it's been. >> a problem for pfizer too. the white house is seeking to renegotiate awards from the us chips act, and has signaled some delays to upcoming semiconductor disbursement disbursements. that's according to a reuters report. they say the new administration is reviewing projects awarded under the 2022 law. sources tell reuters the white house is concerned about some of the terms underpinning those subsidies, including requirements to use unionized labor to build factories and to help provide affordable child care for factory workers. this report also says the white house is frustrated by companies that accepted chips act subsidies, and then announced significant overseas expansion plans, including in china. the law allowed some investments in china are showing shares of companies like intel. intel has

been on a tear this week because a lot of speculation about what vance and others have kind of hinted at in terms of how much they might prioritize us chips as we, you know, move forward. >> yeah. >> on a tear. >> back. to the. >> mid 20s. >> it's sad. >> i know, but i'm. >> just saying. >> no, i know, but it. was one of the great. >> one of the all time great companies. >> the all time. >> great was. >> yeah. and the chip designer arm holdings is planning to launch its own chip this year after securing meta as one of its first customers. this was a financial times report saying the company could unveil its first in-house chip as early as this summer. the move could upend the chip industry and put arm in competition with some of its biggest customers, including nvidia and qualcomm. arm shares quite the opposite story of moderna. they are up 33% year to date, helped by that stargate involvement as well, up significantly over the past six months or so. >> and amat. >> applied materials. shares lower the company's current. >> quarter revenue. >> guidance came in below estimates. >> it said it. >> expects escalating geopolitical tensions to weigh. >> on sales.

>> of its chip making equipment. china represents the company's largest market by revenue share, and that is threatening that market, obviously by tighter us restrictions on exports of chip making technology. the ceo said he expects the curbs such curbs to hurt revenue. >> by. >> about $400 million in 2025. >> coming up, the future. >> of global. >> trade. >> we're going. >> to. >> talk about president trump's plans for reciprocal. tariffs from. people that. >> may agree on some things. >> maybe not on the. >> other. >> but in one in a republican. >> administration, one in a democrat administration. >> in a reminder. >> get the best. >> of squawk. box in our daily podcast. >> follow squawk. pod on your favorite. >> podcast app and. listen anytime. >> we're. >> coming. >> right back. >> this is the emirates premium economy seat. economy. perhaps

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brokerage account or ira. osprey funds your trusted guide to select crypto. >> cnbc live ambitiously. >> get invested. join the club. >> the cnbc investing club is for everybody. >> i joined to. >> achieve financial. >> freedom in retirement. >> jim cramer. >> is the benefit you get. >> that you can't. >> get anywhere else. it's a great value. >> jim cramer. >> gives you. >> much more. >> than you would ever get. >> from any advisor. >> he teaches. >> how to. >> invest versus just what trades to make. >> the return on investment for the club pays. >> for itself. join the club new member save with a special offer for a limited time at cnbc.com. join jim. terms and restrictions apply. >> president trump announced plans to implement.

>> reciprocal tariffs on all major u.s. trading partners, and ordered. >> a. country by. >> country assessment. to reset u.s. trade relations. >> the reciprocal. >> tariffs won't go into effect. >> right away. >> the president says. perhaps by perfect day. >> april 1st. >> maybe he'll say, hey, we were just kidding around. joining us now, wendy cutler, former acting deputy u.s. >> trade rep. >> in the obama administration. she's now vice president of. >> the asia society. >> policy institute. and she's former commerce. department official in the. first trump administration. she's now chair of wiley's national security law practice. and ambassador. >> cutler. >> i don't know how many times yesterday you saw president is pretty good at messaging at times. and these aren't tariffs. >> these are. >> reciprocal tariffs. >> and that. >> immediately makes. >> you. >> think well wait a minute. >> so the. >> they're already being levied

against us. it almost. >> starts to get. >> you on. >> board that. >> if they're. >> doing it. >> to us, why the. >> heck haven't we. tried to reciprocate. >> so yeah. >> on the face of this, this proposal, it. >> seems very. >> reasonable, right? let's let's make them pay what we pay. but frankly, it's just more complicated than that. we have a tariff schedule with almost 10,000 lines, almost 200 countries. and he's asking his advisers in less than two months to come up with a reciprocal tariff proposal that he could put. into effect. and moreover, he's asking that a array of taxes. >> non-tariff measures. >> and subsidies be quantified to also contribute to the tariff rate. so this is going to be a yeoman's task to put in to operationalize. and you know, from my perspective, a more targeted approach probably would

be more beneficial to the united states. >> maybe we can. >> use i. >> if so, when. >> if it was possible. >> that so you have a. >> problem with with. with the. logistically being able to do it. if it. >> was. >> possible to do it. >> do you think. >> there's some merit. >> to the. >> idea, and. >> do you really think it happens on april fools? do you really think it happens or is. >> it are we in. >> the. >> negotiating the negotiating stages. threat threat stages to see what everybody else does at this point? maybe they never get levied or slapped. >> the tariffs are always slapped. >> right. and you know, there's always time between. >> the announcement of these tariffs and. the implementation date. >> so countries probably will be approaching the administration to see what they can do to get to either negotiate or be exempt from these tariffs. but for example autos i agree with autos europe has a 10% tariff. we have

2.5%. i get that it's a product we care about and we're competitive. >> in and we. >> should have equal access. but take a product like. >> coffee where india. >> has 100% tariff. we have a 0% tariff. >> we don't really. >> produce coffee. do we want to pay 100% tax tax on coffee? >> in in. >> in the quest for reciprocity, it makes no sense. let's take a targeted approach. focus on those products we care about, and then approach that country and try and negotiate. >> zach. >> in your. >> view. >> is this something that we should not only. >> look at, but. >> actually go through with, with many different countries? >> i initially. >> you can't help but ask yourself, why are we sitting here allowing it to. >> happen to us? >> it's nice that we do so well. >> the united. >> states leading economy in the world. that doesn't mean that you know that we owe everyone else because we happen to do it

better and we can afford it. that shouldn't be the way it works. >> yeah. i mean. >> good morning. good to be with you. >> i think. >> this raises a really. important question. when we when the united states, when we. bound our most favored nation. >> tariff rates and other countries. were for certain goods. >> allowed to. >> set. >> higher rates, this is. >> when the. >> us was relatively. >> much more developed. >> and our. >> economies. >> our. industries and these other countries. >> so it gave these countries a chance. >> to boost themselves. >> but now countries like india, brazil, they do have mature. >> industries, right. >> and so the. fact that there's. >> discriminatory tariffs now is. certainly something the president should. >> be. >> looking at and trying to negotiate. right. >> and it's not. >> and i really. >> wanted to. >> dispel. this notion. >> of negotiation. >> just for the sake of negotiation. it's not that it's these distortions, these imbalances in the in the trading relationship that the president is just fundamentally. upset by. >> he sees. >> that it's. >> weakening the domestic. >> manufacturing base. >> the. >> domestic workforce. and he wants. >> to take. >> these take these.

>> challenges on. >> if he. >> wasn't committed to a fair free trade but fair trade. >> he wouldn't be doing. >> this in the first place. so this. >> is a president trying to promote trade, but making. >> sure that. >> it's on equal footing. >> zach. >> can you use. >> balance of. >> payments differences. >> to. >> make the case? >> we do consume more. we we're able to consume more. we're never going to have equal, you know, imports and exports. but is. >> there something to that. >> that we're. >> losing $200. >> billion. >> when, when, when there's an. >> imbalance like that. can you look at it that way. >> or is. >> that. >> is that a is that sophistry? >> no. >> absolutely. >> you hit the nail on the head. i mean, as an economist. >> i'll tell you this. >> the same. >> i mean. >> i. >> think when you look at trade. >> deficits, it's. >> a function. >> of the country's wealth. it's a function of the gross national income per capita, etc. >> right. >> but but fundamentally, putting all. >> that aside, i think. >> what the president. >> has asked. >> the his administration to. do

is to go and analyze all this. right. he's not going to take every single. tariff line on in terms of unfair trade with 190 plus countries, but he's going to look at those that are really distorted, the distortions that are enormously impacting us industries and tackle those. maybe that will offset the balance of payment issues. >> on. >> a bilateral basis. >> maybe more needs to. >> be done. >> but what he. >> articulated in his. >> america first memo. >> a few. weeks ago is. >> that one he sees problems. two, he's. >> directing his federal agencies. to look at the whole scope of the problems, utilize the appropriate authorities to tackle these. >> what he'll ultimately tackle. >> we'll see what the analysis shows. but i think he's really committed to tackling as much as he can to fix these distortions. >> so we can. >> put americans back to work. >> and wendy, we did see. >> a lot of. >> the tariffs survive the last four years that were put on. so i guess even democrats thinks

there is a time and a place for tariffs. should they be expanded at this point, or should we be trying to eventually get back to no tariffs. the entire. >> goal i think. >> oh sorry, i was talking to. let wendy have the final word here. >> well, president biden actually he increased tariffs against china as well. but it was done in a targeted way. and look i agree the current tariff schedule, it's outdated. it needs to be updated. that said, i think we should work with our partners and find negotiated solutions versus unilaterally just announcing we're raising our tariffs. and i would just add we have some high tariffs too. for example, in trucks our tariff is 25%. are we going to be okay if countries respond and increase their tariff to 25% for our trucks? i don't think so. so again, this is a little more complicated. on the face. it looks simple, but a targeted

approach i think would would serve the united states better than some kind of across the board, all products, all countries. >> okay. >> thank you. >> i'm just wondering whether we hit, you know, we had no inflation the first time around with some tariffs. i don't this time. i don't know maybe it will be different. maybe not. depends on what you know what is negotiating what isn't. ambassador wendy cutler. >> thanks. and zach. >> thank you as well. >> appreciate it. >> coming up, biden era regulations are on the chopping block. maybe not the tariffs, but certainly some other policies. senate majority leader john thune has a to do list, and cnbc got an exclusive first look. plus maryland governor wes moore reforming tax policy in his state. he'll join us half past next hour. squawk box is coming right back. >> this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit baird difference.com.

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first time consignors. >> get $100 extra terms apply for. >> welcome back. shall we check on shares of draftkings? they're popping 5% this morning after the company's fourth quarter earnings beat estimates. and they raised sales guidance for the year. and this is already on top of a 25% gain since jan one, their number of monthly players was 4.8 million, which about matched expectations. ceo jason robins said the super bowl was particularly strong. here's what he said on closing bell overtime. >> super bowl was just absolute monster day for us. we did 436 million in handling a huge year over year increase across virtually every metric. that mix improved dramatically year over year. really just it was a huge day for us and everything. i think that we kind of wanted going into it. >> and with today's gains, the

stock is now up 30% year to date. after a tough performance in december and early january. the owner of rival fanduel warned they were hit by a period of unfavorable sports results in q4 and lowered guidance. that parent company, flutter, is due to report on march 4th. >> coming up. >> we'll have this morning stocks to watch. so we've got that going for us. plus keeping. >> up. >> with eye demand. >> we're going to talk. >> to. >> the ceo of one company betting big on infrastructure behind that technology. squawk box is coming right back. >> anybody who owns property should worry about home title theft. there's no other crime that is so easy, so quick, and so lucrative. >> your home, your equity, and your peace of mind can all be stolen in one fell swoop by home. title thieves like matthew cox. >> nobody thinks that. >> i can take their house. >> nobody thinks that. >> believe it or not, a single page document is all it takes to transfer proof of ownership out of your name. >> people think there's. >> a whole.

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sclerosis. fibro biologics symbol. >> i'm allison. >> lundberg. >> strategist at americaneagle.com. wagner came to us with a goal to make their website user experience seamless and simplify access to product information for customers. we build enterprise websites like this all the time through a fully integrated. digital transformation. wagner comm is now a fast, mobile optimized website with an engaging user experience for complete website and digital solutions. go to americaneagle.com. >> earnings season on cnbc takes you inside the numbers. and when the ceos have a big announcement, they come here. first. >> a. >> wild hour of earnings. >> earnings season special coverage all this month on cnbc. >> data centers are at the heart of the ai revolution. joining us now is the ceo. >> of an investment firm that. focuses on.

>> ai. >> driven infrastructure. >> michael stone, co-founder, chairman and ceo. what were you doing before i. were you twiddling your. >> thumbs or. >> i mean, when we think. infrastructure that covers a wide range, suddenly digital infrastructure. >> is just it's. >> all the rage. >> you know, i mean, infrastructure is very big in energy. >> it's very. >> big in transportation as well. but the last couple of years, data centers and cloud and now ai are, you know, they're the big topic in infrastructure for sure. you were. ready for that. >> i. guess right. >> from cloud. i'd like to say yes. >> i'd like to say yes. >> i think a lot of us got lucky, quite frankly. the cloud industry was very big and growing very, very well. and so we were positioned in cloud. but then ai has just put fuel on the fire there. and what's really made the difference is we have these power shortages now in the us. and so if you have land with access to power and room for data centers, you've got the

golden goose there. you can, you know, to an extent name your price with the hyperscalers. so it's really the power. shortage has been the big difference maker. >> so you. >> need to think. >> about that as well. experts on. where you can. >> go where you're going to have easy. >> access to cheap. >> that's the. >> big that's that's. >> the main thing. >> like there's all these announcements at the moment on big commitments to data centers and big spend on ai and the cloud, etc. you've got the chips which are obviously, you know, precious and very difficult to get, but just as importantly, it's getting access to land where you can build a data center that has power. and there's just. >> a shortage. >> of that at the moment. so, you know, in addition to the chips, the biggest bottleneck for ai at the moment is literally access to land with power and permits. >> that's really amazing. >> who who do. >> you compete against? who's your who are your biggest competitors and why? someone sa, god stones me so much, so much better.

>> i'm not sure if. >> they. >> would say that. we've got fantastic competitors. blackstone is a big competitor. blackstone of ours. i used to be at blackstone. nothing but great respect there. kkr have a big infrastructure effort. >> digital infrastructure. >> digital transport, energy. look we focus on our game. what we really look for is we look for businesses that have big competitive moats around them. that's what we focus on in the digital space. for the longest time, there's a type of data center called connectivity data centers. that's where all the fiber optic cables come and join together. physically, it's the telephone exchange, you know, big competitive moat around that business. good returns on capital. i must say, in the hyperscaler space, the returns on capital were okay for the longest time. but again, it's this ai boom and the difficulty in getting power that has driven returns up enormously in the hyperscaler space when deep sea. >> when you saw that news, did you go, holy crap, we've been. i mean, was there a. reset on on.

>> on the deep sea situation? >> absolutely fascinating. i've got a. lot of buddies in tech. i've spoken to a lot of them. i think what deep sea may well do is i think it's put a bit of a dent, perhaps, in the competitive moat of the big foundational frontier models. and there's a bunch of those models out there at the moment, and there's a bunch of these training data center campuses that support those. there's going to be some winners, presumably in that frontier model space, but i'm not sure we're going to have 6 or 7 of these frontier models. it may be a little bit like search and you've got like a dominant player like google. we'll see. but what it's also done is it's made it very clear that these smaller entrepreneurial developers can take a small, deep sea like model. they can put their own overlay on top of that, and, you know, all of a sudden have something that they can apply ai to that consumers will use. and so you're going to see, i'm quite certain of this,

a proliferation of use cases of ai. and so from a data center perspective, all these data centers that serve the urban areas and currently do a lot of cloud data center capacity, you're going to see huge growth there from the application of ai to businesses to consumers, etc. so i don't think it's just deep seat, but i think that's made everyone realize you can get a smaller, simpler, pretty good copy of these huge models that the little entrepreneurial developers can then take and run with and, you know, apply that to an ai use case. >> so when you're looking for land. >> to do this, would you rather be close to a wind and solar farm, or would you rather be close to a natural gas pipeline? >> it's look, i'm not i'm not anti. renewables in the in the least. but you need the base load power for data centers and for. >> when. >> the issue. >> when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow. >> you got it. and you can

improve that a little bit with. >> batteries for. >> the renewables. but you can't get 24 over seven power. and so the issue we've got in the us at the moment is we've retired a lot of coal plants and we've replaced it with solar. and that's terrific from a carbon emissions perspective. but it's tougher from a baseload power reliability situation. and so we have an issue in the us at the moment where we need a whole lot of more base power. a base load power and gas really is the not short term is going to take years and years, but gas is the nearest term answer to that. so we've got a little bit of a task ahead of us as a nation to catch up to the, you know, the power capacity needs that we have in the country. right. >> well that's infrastructure. so you'll be you know, you'll be glomming on to that too, i'm sure, michael. but thank you, john. >> a pleasure kelly. >> thank you. >> thank you. shrimp on the barbie. >> do you know the australian word. for beer? you probably do, right? you just think you. scold

beer. >> don't we? we've got a different fosters. >> that's our advertising. fosters is a strong australian. >> i know more. >> about fosters. might be bigger here, i think, than in australia. >> don't they say that outback serves american food in australia? >> well, it's first of all, it's got a new zealander who's the voiceover for it. i will. point point point point point that over. >> that's not. >> a knife. >> this is a knife. >> do you know. >> what. that's from. i know. >> more about australia. >> you know we. >> know what that's from. we do i'm american now okay. but we love we love the way the. >> americans, the dingoes we very. >> welcome over here in new york. and the dingo. >> eat your baby. >> all right. >> i'm done. >> that's everything i can think of. >> and i have nothing further to contribute. >> that was elaine. >> you remember. >> the seinfeld? >> yes. actually. michael. >> really? >> you weren't born yet? >> we've watched all of them. >> you have. >> you have to. yes. >> you have to. >> they're brilliant. >> amazing. >> it's just. >> after 7. >> a.m. on the east coast and you are watching squawk box on cnbc. i'm kelly evans this morning, along with joe kernen. becky and andrew are off. and

among today's top stories, the white house is seeking to renegotiate awards from the chips act and has even signaled delays to some upcoming disbursements, reuters reports. the administration is reviewing projects awarded under the 2022 law, saying the white house is concerned about some of the terms underpinning those subsidies. also, tiktok has returned to the apple and google app stores. the chinese owned social media app had been removed on january 18th, moments after a temporary halt to the service came in the us. bytedance has until april 5th, unless trump delays it again to reach a deal to divest tiktok or to come to some alternative arrangement, and moderna posting a larger than expected loss. the company's covid 19 and rsv vaccines did top sales expectations, but for the full year, they now expect revenue in the range of one and a half to 2.5 billion. the street consensus was 2.43 billion. the stock is down 5% and as mentioned, this was $140 stock last summer. it's at 30 today checking the futures. we've seen some pressure this morning. not huge, but the dow looks lower by

about 100 points. and nasdaq and s&p in the red. frank holland has more on this morning's pre-market movers. hi, frank. >> hey. good morning, kelly and joe. let's start off with air bnb. that's one of our earnings movers shares up right now. double digits up 13.5%. you see big spike after earnings. the company beat on the top. and the bottom line eps 25% above estimates. also gross bookings. those beat estimates. airbnb says it's rebuilt its tech stack and rolled out new product updates in recent years that are driving higher conversion rates. the company also teased some new offerings that will launch in may. didn't give a lot of details there, though. all that overshadowed current quarter guidance that actually came in below estimates. shares of airbnb you can see up over 13.5%. another earnings mover that's wynn rising after top and bottom line beats eps nearly doubling estimates. the company's macau casinos they had strong performance beating estimates. they said lunar new year was a tailwind. revenue and profit in las vegas and boston also beat estimates. wynn also added its acquisition of a casino in the mayfair section of london. the very tony mayfair section that birdie told me kelly used to hang out in back

in her worldwide exchange days. that acquisition will close in the second half of 2025. it's a move they believe will drive traffic to a new wind property that's opening up in the uae. up in coming up in 2027, shares of wynn up about 2%. but you can see week to date a lot of volatility here. shares actually down almost 5%. one more earnings mover. that's roku also moving double digits higher after a beat on revenue. ebitda more than doubling estimates. shares of roku up about 15.5%. huge spike when it comes right here. year to date that stock's up about 35%. so the platform segment that makes up about 85% of revenue. that had strong ads and distribution in the quarter, according to executives. they got it for 15% growth in the platform segment this year. the number of active accounts at nearly 90 million, also above estimates. roku ceo is going to join you to at 8:20 a.m. this morning to talk about the quarter and much, much more. kelly and joe, back over to you. >> there's a casino in mayfair, frank. >> yeah, there's a casino in mayfair. when wynn bought it. deals supposed to close in the second half of the year.

>> wow. >> i wasn't going to the right places, i guess. yeah. >> didn't i see you didn't deny what the little birdie told me? >> wait. well, what did they say that i. that i was in? i think i went there once. i lived in angel. it was very, very. >> where is this? >> in london. >> it was. >> yeah. >> yeah. okay, frank. >> thank you. appreciate it. frank holland. >> now to washington. >> cnbc got a first look at senate majority leader john thune's list of biden era regulations that are on the chopping block. these rule changes would have a direct impact on the energy and banking sectors. emily wilkins joins us now with the details. good morning. >> good morning joe. >> well yeah, republicans in congress there at the. start of. >> this really. >> unique short window of time where they can actually go ahead and eliminate regulations made in the final months. >> of the biden administration. and thune. >> of course, he sets the agenda in the senate, and he's targeting a couple of rules. >> including two. >> that specifically impact the energy sector. so one of these.

>> these are both. biden regulations. >> they would levy an annual fee on oil and gas companies with high methane emissions. and then another biden era. regulation that would have required companies seeking to drill in seabeds to first. >> do an archeological study. >> so thune is going. >> to be using this process under the congressional review. >> act, and that means that republicans only need a simple majority to be able. >> to revoke these regulations. >> so it is highly. >> likely that they're going to be able to do that. >> in a statement, thune. >> said that senate republicans are taking action to reverse the harmful. regulations of the biden administration. >> and cut through the red tape. >> that's fueling inflation and burdening american energy. thune also. identified several. other regulations to chop. >> including one that would have been friendly to one that is friendly to the banking sector. it was overturning an. >> sec rule that imposes additional. >> requirements for bank. >> merger review. >> the last time. republicans held a trifecta in dc, they were able to eliminate 16 obama. era

regulations. but the clock is ticking. republicans only have until about late spring or early summer to revoke any biden regulations that they have the. >> votes for. guys. >> all right. >> yeah. >> i don't think the half. >> life on a. >> lot of those. >> regulations are, i don't know, not very long. i'm trying to think of an element that has like a 12 second half life, but. they're mostly going to be gone, don't you think, emily? >> i do. i mean, i think, joe, at this point the only hold up is other things that they have on the. >> senate agenda. >> remember, they're still getting. >> trump's cabinet confirmed. >> going through nominees. and then. >> of course, next week we're. >> expecting them. >> you saw. >> earlier this. >> week a panel begin to move. >> on getting. >> trump's agenda through setting those top line spending. >> and cuts. they could be. taking that up for a vote next week on the senate floor. and then, of course, you've got to keep your eye out for mid march. that's when we're facing the next government shutdown deadline. so a couple other things on the senate's agenda.

but certainly now that there is sort of in this window where they can revoke these regulations, i mean, thune has kind of teed up for as his as his priorities. but there are many, many. >> more that senators are offering. >> up that could. >> easily get support. >> to pass. >> after doge. >> there may not be. >> that. much to. >> shut down. >> which. >> you know, so it won't be nearly as big a deal. emily. anyway. thank you. just kidding. good to have you on this morning. coming up, the major averages rebounding sharply from wednesday's. cpi dip. now on track to. >> finish the. >> week higher. we're going to get into the markets next. and then. later maryland governor wes moore on his tax reform moves to give his state a budget surplus. i think on millionaires it's like. >> 6% or. >> something on over $1 million. did you hear that? phil murphy 6%. >> don't give. >> him any. you should be. >> ashamed of yourself. he joins us at 7:30 a.m. eastern time. >> we'll be right back. it's 11% >> we'll be right back. it's 11% of. the.

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counting. get started today at frame bridge. com. >> welcome back. some red this morning. although it continues to improve. dow would open lower about 92 points. our next guest says we're in the later stages of a classic bull market. andrew slimmon is a senior portfolio manager at morgan stanley. and andrew, we meet in the morning. welcome. >> how unusual. >> for you, kelly. >> yeah. you know, it's good to be here and it's good to see you. and you have been we talked about this before. but, you know, you you were part of you and joe. you were convincing. you got to be bullish. you got to kind of you got to go with this and but more recently i thought you were a little bit more cautious. so anyway, how do you feel about the market right here? >> well, the. >> point of this. >> is kelly, is that we're. >> following a classic bull market cycle, which is we had a

25% correction in 2022. the mar the market was set up for great opportunity by. but the first two years. >> a lot of people sat on the sidelines. >> the number one. pushback i got was, why should. >> i buy. >> equities when i can get 5% risk free? but in the third year you move into the optimism phase. i don't hear anyone pushing back saying that anymore. and we're seeing huge flows. >> into equities. >> retail flows have been very. >> very strong. >> you're right. i think when we look at different surveys of like, you know, u.s. stock ownership, we are at like all time highs who are who's left to buy out there. >> yeah you're. >> looking at percentage equities. but at the end of the day there was $8 trillion sitting in money markets. i'm not saying all that's coming into equities. but that just tells you that there's a lot of money on the sidelines. i see it. >> we run. >> mutual funds. i see. >> it. >> every day. there's money coming in now. that's classic first quarter of a year. >> but the. >> point of this is, is the next phase.

>> after. >> the optimism phase. is the euphoria. and that's when the markets die. and so. >> days like. >> yesterday when i see the unprofitable tech index up 5% and you get these. big volatile. >> stocks, you know, very big. >> volatility and high beta. >> stocks. >> that scares me because. that's the sign of the later. stages of a bull market. >> so when. >> you. >> think when. >> you see. >> the you know, it's too early to say, hey, it's over. but i you know, it's certainly not early innings anymore. >> i almost feel like it's throwing off sparks. so we've got meta on a 19 day win streak. you know we get these moves where it's like, you know a company pops 30% or it's not just gamestop is a different story. i'm talking about real companies that are you know we're just saying. so do you think they're sort of throwing off sparks in this euphoria phase? where's the fear and greed index, though? are we even in greed right now? >> well, what's. >> interesting is, you know, the sentiment numbers aren't very, very good, except i see the flows and they're very strong.

so i always say watch what people are doing, not what they're saying. and the flows are very strong. but but i would say that the, the key, you know, kind of signposts of euphoria is not when companies that are doing well fundamentally are going up. it's when there's no logic between what is working leading the market and fundamentals when companies. and that was you remember 2021, it was spacs and meme stocks. and these. stocks had no fundamentals. and i don't see that quite yet. but we're starting to see kind of what i would call the bubbly signs that it's starting and that, you know, that gets me worried because it you don't have to go very. yeah. >> is it neutral right now? 47 so where i mean, i don't know if you can kind of be specific off the top of your head, but there are going to be people out there going, what are you talking about. look at earnings for the mag seven. look at the multiples like there's nothing here. what do you see that kind of gives you some concern. >> well like i said yesterday we

saw the unprofitable, you know, unprofitable tech biotech. those are the types of things that, you know, you should be worried about when you see big flows. that is true. wall street is a lot more optimistic today than it was the last two years. that gets me concerned. and then one thing we haven't seen yet, which would be the big kind of corporate deal flow that kind of is symptomatic of a bull market also. so i think. >> there are. >> the ipos aren't even popping. >> the one yesterday. >> in granted it was interesting to cover it. i forget the name of it. it was sailpoint. and you know private equity. there's a sense i think amongst the public of like we don't need to buy this. this is not a new company. this doesn't have an ai story. but the ipos lately, even there was a software ipo for the last year that didn't do much. what does that tell you? >> well. >> i think what's interesting is kind of the publicly traded private equity stocks have

actually rolled over recently. and i think that's because the fed is going slower than expected. and i think the speed with which the fed cuts rate will determine when we get to that euphoric stage. so i'm kind of i wasn't as an equity manager. i wasn't disappointed that the cpi came in a little stronger, only because i do think a more go slow will extend the duration of the bull market, and we won't get to that euphoric stage quite as quickly as if the fed were to cut very aggressively. >> all right andrew, good to see you this morning. appreciate your time. thank you. andrew slimmon. >> coming up. >> cnbc's first ever. >> rankings of the most valuable nba franchises and the team. topping the. list may surprise you. >> it kind of surprised me. i can't believe the. lakers weren't the most valuable. they are the big market. >> they are in your. >> house. >> and even more so now. that's next. squawk box coming right back.

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today's aflac trivia question. according to finance buzz, what is the average price for a dozen long stem roses for valentine's day? the answer $90.50. that's a 2% increase from last year. hawaii has the most expensive roses at $143 per dozen. >> it's up a lot. >> i was way off. >> nba all-star. weekend tips. >> off in san francisco this evening. but before that gets underway, cnbc sports tipping off its first ever ranking of the most valuable nba franchises, coming in at number one. golden state. golden state warriors at a whopping $9.4 billion. trailing by nearly 2 billion at number two, the new york knicks. and followed by the lakers, the chicago bulls and the houston rockets rounding

out. >> the top five. >> five cnbc senior sports reporter mike ozanian is the man behind the numbers. he joins us now with more. you do a simple like is it a multiple to ebitda. >> or like multiples of revenue looking at past transactions. and if. >> you're. >> an nba. >> owner, you love. >> the way your. >> investments have. >> worked out. >> you mentioned. >> the warriors. >> at the. >> most. valuable team. >> if you look at the ownership. >> group, they paid $450 million for the team. >> 2010 over 9 billion. >> now that's. >> a 24%. >> annualized return. >> you go to the bottom of the list the. >> memphis grizzlies. >> they were bought. >> for $377 million in 2012. >> it's talking. >> about a 19%. annualized return. >> wow that is amazing. so what do tv rights how does it factor into why. >> it's the biggest reason. >> for the. >> ascension and the. value of these teams? the current. >> deal is averaging. >> $2.7 billion a year. >> that money. >> gets split. >> evenly among all 30 teams. so it doesn't matter.

>> what market. >> you're in, how many fans you. get doesn't matter. the new deal, which begins next year, is going to average $6.9 billion a year. >> that's the. >> single biggest. >> reason why the. >> value of these teams have increased. >> golden state. golden state it's all about the arena joe and the sponsorship money that they get from the building. the timing was great, right? they moved into the building. >> steph curry they're winning championships. they're selling sponsorship revenue. >> like crazy. the warriors. >> get. >> nearly twice the. >> sponsorship revenue. >> of the second. >> ranked nba team in terms. >> of sponsorships. that's the biggest reason. >> can i ask though is all this vestiges of the past. right. the warriors are no longer what they once were. so the sponsorship deals, who knows going forward. but this the luka trade with the mavericks that is raising so many questions about what's going on with tv rights, what's happened with the rsns and the ratings for the nba are not that great right now. they're talking about making changes like shorter quarters or people always, you know, upset about the three pointers. so what is

the prognosis look like going forward? >> well, if you. >> look the. >> commissioners talked about. >> making the game. >> shorter. >> maintaining the attention span. but if. you talk. about an individual teams like the. >> warriors, yes. >> they're not that good going back to when they were winning championships. >> but their revenue is. >> locked in. it's contractually. >> obligated for. >> at least the next five years, 95%. >> of their revenue. >> if you compare, like. the ratings. >> and the. >> tv money. for the nba and the nfl, the ratings. >> are this far apart. >> but the. >> revenue is. >> a lot closer. >> and i. >> think the biggest. >> reason for that. is the. >> nba is more global. you look. >> at. >> that tournament that they have earlier in the. >> year. >> the sponsorships. >> that they. >> sell for, that. >> they have. >> a. >> new streaming. >> component for the telecast. >> you're talking about the in-season tournament. yeah, which is very poorly rated. >> yeah, yeah. >> but you're saying it's incredibly lucrative. >> from a sponsorship level. >> and i think that's why one of the reasons. why the media rights. have been going up, because the partners on. the media. >> side want to be attached with

global sponsors. >> so there's more i mean, china, there's more fans in china than all the fans combined. >> you know, it's. >> these athletes. >> are looked at as megastars. >> outside of the us. and it's one of the reasons. >> why. >> for instance, they get. >> these crazy. >> shoe deals, you know, with nike and so forth, because nike. wants to be attached globally. and like you mentioned, joe, the fans, whether it's china, europe, they see the brand. >> don't you think next week. >> with the luka trade you need to jack up the lakers valuation? >> the hard part for the. >> lakers is going to be there. >> they get. >> the most money from. >> local tv. >> in about. >> $180 million. >> in this season. that's an old deal signed with time warner cable. as we. >> all know. >> tv is challenged now in terms of cord cutting and so forth. >> so the. >> lakers, unlike the warriors, the lakers. >> don't control. >> their arena economics. their building is owned by anschutz, so they are in jeopardy of

losing a. >> significant chunk. >> of their revenue in a few years when their tv deal could end. >> that's interesting. >> so the kings guy, the hockey owns the arena. >> that's right. so the kings get the lion's share of the building's revenue. >> wow. >> just saying. so how about this is new this morning? i guess the giants looking at selling to whom. yeah we talked about. >> it's going to i. >> think go. >> to. >> private equity makes. >> sense. >> for the giants. you know. >> some of these iconic. franchises the giants the bears we've had family. >> the same family. >> be involved in ownership for generations. i think private. equity is going to allow them. >> to. >> monetize some of that. and maybe some of the smaller owners will get out. >> some of. >> the money could also be. >> used. >> simply to capitalize on the tremendous appreciation in the value of this team over generations. >> yeah. you didn't like my idea that to increase ratings for the nba, that the team that doesn't

control the ball should be required to play defense on the other. >> no, i'm with you. i'm like you. i'm old school. you don't think that would would help if they, like, tried to stop the. >> other team from scoring? >> yeah. you might get scores under 120 points per side. but listen, i want to go back to eliminating the designated hitter in baseball. so. that's right. >> so do i in the orange. >> it's a. >> charlie thing. you know whose fault. >> it was? george steinbrenner when he. >> stole don. >> gullett from the cincinnati reds. >> he got. catfish hunter. throwing money at everyone. do you remember that? did that make you. >> yankees think they have great teams? >> marvin miller was. >> the genius. >> behind all of that for the players. >> which is showing up, we just show. is it cool to be 70? i don't know, we're just i don't think i. think it is. yeah you do. it's better than the alternative of not being. >> that's right. >> all right. i guess you. >> granddaughter. >> are you 30 yet? >> no. >> my 24. >> you know. >> just over and over. again

soon. i'm not going to have an excuse for my miss knowledge of history. >> yeah, exactly. >> what are you talking about? how do you not. remember this? you were. >> around, right? >> you still falling back. >> on 24? >> yeah. >> thanks, mike. >> and check out all the. >> details somewhere on the full. oh, it's on the full nba rankings. you can do that. be sure to visit cnbc.com. >> and coming up gamestop may be getting into the crypto game. we'll tell you what cnbc has now learned about the company potentially investing in bitcoin and some other cryptocurrencies. roku shares are also on the move this morning. and in the next hour. an exclusive interview with ceo anthony wood. squawk with ceo anthony wood. squawk box is actors. we can make you believe we know what we're doing. when, in fact, we do not. whoops. i have no idea what these buttons do. i've never driven a stick in my life. but my hardest role yet? small business owner. because i have no idea what i'm doing. but godaddy airo does, using ai to build a logo, website and social content... for walton goggins' goggle glasses. because if your goggles ain't goggins,

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amazing and is something that we get to use every day. >> for our. >> welcome back to squawk box. we get retail sales in an hour and import prices as we round out inflation week. market in the red. ahead of that and after yesterday's decent gains, dow looked to open lower by 106. and gold hit a record high earlier this week amid a lot of chatter about central banks kind of turning to it as a defacto

standard. it's adding another 3/10 today. it's below 3000 an ounce still. and check out bitcoin. the risk on proxy in the green today. it's up about two thirds of 1% holding in just under 97,000. speaking of which, three sources tell cnbc that gamestop is considering investing in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. they say the company is still in the process of figuring out if it makes sense, and could still decide not to follow through with those investments. last weekend, ceo ryan cohen posted that photo on x with michael saylor, co-founder of what's now known as strategy and one of the biggest holders of bitcoin. two of the sources tell cnbc. saylor is not actively involved in gamestop's discussion about crypto investments. gamestop has soared as much as 20% in extended trading on that report. it's up 8% this morning. >> coming up, maryland governor wes moore introduced a new budget with some major tax changes. i added in some of the like the baltimore search, and it's close to 11 for the populist. >> in maryland.

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jim. terms and restrictions apply. >> maryland governor. >> wes moore. has unveiled. >> a new budget. >> plan for his state. >> in addition to raising taxes on the state's. >> highest earners. >> it eliminates the inheritance tax, lowers the corporate tax rate. governor moore joins us now. is this and governor, it's good to see you again. it's been a while. we go way back. good to see you. good to. >> see you. >> is this done? >> i mean, if i. >> come down and. >> we talk, is there any way i can get you to change your mind on on any of this is a done deal. no. we're still working with. >> the general assembly. >> to be able to be able to finalize it. but i tell you, this is this. is the most pro growth agenda and plan that we've put together in a very long time in our state. and we're excited about it because, you know, as you know, listen, i come from the business world and there's two things you have to be able to do to be able to spur growth. you need to increase your top line and you need to control your spend. and this plan that we've laid out. >> does two of.

>> those things. we're making distinct and specific investments in industries of the future that we know that maryland has a chance to win. >> in, and. >> a chance to compete in things like life sciences. i cyber, quantum defense and aerospace. we're also controlling our spend. >> and for. >> the third. >> year in a row, i introduced a budget where our general fund is actually smaller than the year before. so we're decreasing the size of government, making sure we're more efficient and. >> modernizing the. >> way government works. and also talking about modernizing a tax code where two thirds of marylanders are about to get a. tax cut. 82% of marylanders will either see a. cut or no change at all. and by doing things like. lowering the corporate tax rate by focusing on things like procurement reform, regulatory reform, permitting reform, we're making. >> it more attractive. >> environment for businesses to be able to come and grow in the state of maryland. >> so we're excited. >> about what this is going to mean for economic growth, and also what is going to mean for middle class families. >> you had a. >> 3 billion that you had to deal with. so you go 2 billion

in spending cuts and a billion in tax increases, but you resisted raising taxes at all with your your democratic legislature. and this. >> is you're not. >> i'm. not going to say you're throwing in. >> the towel. but there. >> was this piece. >> written. >> the californication, maryland. you do get the top rate if you add in some of the baltimore surcharges and the wealthy counties around washington, d.c. >> earlier. >> i was like, kidding about governor murphy. i was saying, you. >> know, he's at. >> 11% here in my home state of new jersey, but you get up. >> close to that. >> ten and three quarters. and the only. >> thing. >> i'll say, wes. >> is that this has been. >> tried by one of not not your immediate predecessor. but remember, governor o'malley, martin o'malley also raised taxes from 2008. >> to. >> 2010. from four and. >> three quarters to six. >> and a quarter on the top earners. >> it ended up. >> because everyone. >> left. 1000 of.

>> the top earners were no. >> longer in the state. >> maryland collected 250 million. less from taxpayers. >> because they left. >> why not. find 3. >> billion in spending cuts and not not tax anyone more? well, here's the thing. >> and i. >> knew going in that you were not going to tax your way to prosperity. and you're not going to cut your way to prosperity. if that's all you're doing, then you're just simply managing growth and you're managing decline. this is about how do you spurn growth and making sure that you have an economy that can actually match your match, your ambitions. and so by being able to do things like double the standard deduction, by doing things like eliminating the standard deduction penalty, by making sure that middle class families can have a little extra money in their pocket, because we know that they're getting squeezed right now. we knew that was a way of getting more people into the economy, and also incentivize businesses to be able to come and choose the state of maryland, where, you know, just. yesterday i was in

boston talking to life science companies. just last week, we announced that our q a company is now going to announce 160 new jobs in the state of maryland because we actively recruit them and brought them on board. and when you're looking at the tax modernization that we have for people making over $1 million, we're asking them to pay a quarter point more than others, a quarter point more than others. >> it's a. >> it's a. it's a creep. we're still. >> it keeps happening. >> tell me did did did larry. >> hogan the. >> prior governor. >> did he. >> leave a $5. >> billion. >> budget surplus. >> 2.5 billion structural and 3 billion in a rainy day. >> you're going. >> to tell me that was covid, right? is that because there was a surplus when you when you came in? wasn't there? no, there there was, there was cash that was left in. and listen, i, i know there's a lot of i know. >> there's a lot of. >> political talking points that go along this. but here are the facts. and here's the truth. is that what we saw there was one time covid money that came in that was going to every single state. billions of states got

billions of dollars from the federal government. and what we had to do with that money came on board because we inherited a structural deficit, a multi-billion dollar structural deficit that was predicted since 2017 and was not dealt with. and so one time cash is a sugar high. it's not dealing with the structural problem. and the structural problem was growth and spending. and so what we did when we came on board, we knew that we both wanted to put extra capital into the rainy day fund, where you have a recommendation on the rainy day. it was important to me that we that we exceed what the recommendation is in the rainy day by multiple percentage points, and being able to make sure that we were the recommendation was at five. we had it at 8%. rainy day fund. so we took that capital, put it inside a rainy day, and also had to deal with a lot of the liabilities that we also inherited to include things like claims of abuse and fraud at our largest veterans home called sharlot hall, to include this boondoggle called the purple line, which is a mass transit rail line that we have to now deal with because it was not dealt with by by the former

administration. and so, you know, so when i'm looking at this, there are there's political talking points and then there's facts. the facts and the numbers show that what we inherited. was a structural deficit. that one time capital then had to be used. and i decided to use it towards things like buffering the rainy day fund and also ensuring that we were dealing with some of these liabilities that we that we inherited. but we're not going to leave people behind and have to deal with immediately. >> i just think. >> that in this. >> environment and maybe. >> it's, you. >> know. >> maybe in two. >> years. >> you know, we see a, i don't know, a dem sweep or. >> something. >> but there just seems to be at this point, governor, a real. >> i don't know, an. >> emphasis on, on at least not letting government grow any bigger. >> and i think you could. >> be you would be such a i wouldn't want an article written about me that says the californication of maryland. i would want wow, wes moore didn't. raise taxes. >> at all above what's. >> already a high tax state.

>> i know you're next to. >> dc. >> but do the 3 billion in spending cuts and come with me? >> don't chase. >> don't. >> you know. >> hate million. >> people that have $1. >> million or more in income? >> get them. >> to. >> stay in maryland. >> it's a great place. >> you got great, you know, crabcakes. >> and it's beautiful. >> it's. >> a beautiful. >> industries and great industries. it's the. >> capital of cracking down. >> it's the. >> coming down. >> sciences. >> i know i'm coming. >> down there. and i. >> love. >> that you said that because. >> i. >> i had maryland. >> last night and nebraska. >> is inviting. >> that's right. they did. and great college basketball too. and but you know but one thing we're doing is this is how you can focus on growing the economy. and you're absolutely right. and that's why. >> i. >> don't deal with, you know, again, i come from the from the business world of facts and of data and facts. i don't do political attacks that we saw from that type of headline. the reality is, is that maryland is focusing on a growth agenda that's actually increasing economic growth, that's increasing top line, that's

reining in spending. and to your point, for the third year in a row, i've introduced a budget that has actually decreased the general fund, decreased the size of state government that we focus on, government monetization, where we're doing things like it consolidation, fleet consolidation, focusing on procurement reform and keeping maryland procurement dollars inside of maryland. and so what we're doing right now, if you're saying you believe in smaller. >> government. >> my answer is, so do i. and that's. >> exactly why we introduced. >> this budget. if you say you believe in government efficiency, my answer is so do we in maryland. and people should pay attention to what we're doing when it comes to decreasing the size of state government and increasing efficiency in the way that government actually works for people? >> well, governor. >> it good discussion. good to have you on. you got youngkin on the other side and he's it's quite it's quite a thing to behold. and both rising stars in in opposing parties. but thanks for you know it's been a while. good to have you on this morning. i hope to see you again

soon. thanks. >> it's great to. >> see you, joe. thank you. okay. >> coming up, elon musk's doge is knocking on the door of the irs. we'll have the details when squawk box comes right back. squawk box comes right back. >> to. you. at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real. university, is ranked the number one best run college in america by the princeton review. employers value hpa's real world

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washington. it's always busy lately. a source told nbc news that officials from the office of personnel management met with leaders of other federal agencies yesterday and advised them to dismiss probationary employees. ones with that status have typically been with the federal government for only 1 or 2 years before all of their civil service protections have fully kicked in. so we're talking about kind of newer employees, potentially. separately, a wall street

journal report says a member of the doge team visited the headquarters of the irs yesterday. gavin kleeger is an aide to elon musk. the report said he visited as part of a review of the tax agency's operations and asked for meetings with senior officials, and was interested in the agency's headcount and reuters reports. the trump administration has asked u.s. embassies worldwide to prepare for staff cuts. that includes 10% reductions for both u.s. staff and locally employed staff, they said. a list of the workforce is due to be sent to the state department today, which will then determine further actions as mentioned. very busy. coming up, tesla stock has been on a wild ride since the election of president trump. way up. it's been a little bit more of a struggle lately. ceo elon musk has been quite busy in the nation's capital. has he taken his eyes off the road when it comes to tesla itself? we'll talk to an tesla itself? we'll talk to an analyst 7 million us businesses rely on tiktok to compete. within a week of posting, i had over $25,000 in sales. i don't have a million dollars to put towards marketing and branding. tiktok was the way

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approach to my beauty philosophy. clean. good for you philosophy. clean. good for you products that are -honey... -but the gains are pumping! dad, is mommy a "finance bro?" she switched careers to make money for your weddings. oooh the asian market is blowing up! hey who wants shots, huh?! -shots?? -of milk. the right money moves aren't as aggressive as you think. do this. >> full time. >> for the value that we get. the investing club is very much worth it. >> join the club. new member. save with a special offer for a limited time at cnbc.com. terms and restrictions apply. >> welcome back. we're always keeping an eye on shares of tesla. they're up 1.6% today kind of stemming more of the

recent declines. it's been out of quite a ride since the november election when it initially skyrocketed. we're still off those all time highs back in december. let's talk to colin rusch about it. he's oppenheimer senior research analyst. colin, remind me price target stance on the stock. welcome. >> yeah. >> we've got a perform rating on. >> the. >> stock. >> and we don't have our. >> firm doesn't. >> have price targets on. >> former stock. so we're. >> neutral on the stock at this point. and you know there's a lot going on with the company. >> you know in the midst of a much larger context, the two things that we're really. tracking are what's going on. >> with this core. >> business with with evs and some concerns around. >> a. >> race to. zero as. chinese competition starts. >> to impact. >> both margins and volumes on. >> a. >> global basis. >> and then the competitive landscape around autonomy. >> we think there's. >> multiple players that are viable. >> competitors to tesla. >> and that. >> there is. going to be a mix of folks that actually participate in the. autonomy future and monetizing that future here, right. >> so, you know, we talked to dan ives yesterday and he said,

look, he sees the company adding another trillion dollars of market cap, in large part driven by autonomy. so you're worried about, excuse me, the competitive threat both from traditional evs just on the auto side and about sort of the other players in that autonomy space, is that right? >> that's correct. >> so. >> you. >> know. we're looking. >> at two other leaders. >> in the space. waymo, which obviously is getting a lot of. >> attention given the. >> success that they're having on. >> the road. >> in multiple. cities in the us. >> and then. >> you know, essentially the. field of auto oems. >> that are leveraging mobile. >> platform for. >> driving towards level. >> four, level five autonomy. >> and these are very complex problems. you know, the industry. >> has been working on it for. >> nearly a decade. >> in a real active way. >> and we're getting close to. some real. serious breakthroughs for the industry. >> around bringing. >> autonomous vehicles. >> to market. >> and as we look at that, it looks. >> to us. >> like we're going to. >> see multiple players. and that tesla. >> is not going. >> to run away with. >> this market. >> we do see.

>> them having some. >> structural cost. >> advantages with the. >> vehicle production. >> given where they're. at right. >> now. >> versus a lot of the. >> peers in the western, you know, western oem space. >> sure. >> but if they're not able to get. functionality versus other folks, it. >> kind of doesn't matter on. >> that front. >> although i was just going to add that, you know, i have to imagine as autonomy becomes more widespread, even if that is a competition, it's got to just help the whole category, right. all of the players in it to some extent. what about his involvement in the white house? help or hindrance? >> you know, it's interesting. >> we're tracking it. >> pretty closely. you know. >> i was just looking at. >> a yougov, you know, survey where his his. >> you know. >> approval rating or, you know. >> folks that. >> view him as, you know, very negative has gone up. 7% in the last. >> couple of weeks. >> you know, i think. >> it runs a risk of alienating some. customers and. >> potentially some employees. >> it's something we're tracking. >> pretty. >> closely as. >> we look at sales trajectory. >> here through the balance of this. >> year, we're a little. >> bit cautious. >> around what's going.

>> on in china. >> you know, their. >> sales. >> were down 11% in january. >> versus the. >> broader ev market. >> being up 31% in the in the month. >> and so it's an ongoing. >> very fluid situation. >> but he. >> runs some risk. >> of having. >> of becoming. >> the face. >> of some. >> unpopular programs. >> you know, and certainly. >> there are some folks. >> that are cheering him. >> on here. >> but it will, i think, you know, be some somewhat. negative in some of his core. market of ev adopters, particularly. >> in europe and the us. you know, i asked dan the same question yesterday. he said, i'm not sure he cares anymore. >> elon, i you know, i can't. >> speculate what how he. >> feels, but. >> it doesn't appear. >> that he is super concerned. >> i think. >> they're really focused. >> on moving towards autonomy. and. you know. >> an ai future. >> and our. >> our caution here around. >> autonomy is just that. >> there's a competitive. >> landscape. >> you know. >> that they're going to have to deal with. >> and we'll see. >> how. it plays. >> out here. but we're not convinced. >> that they're necessarily. >> the only winner. >> in that space. >> all right. so not super bearish not super bullish. is

there like a goldilocks i guess it's just right. perform rating. colin thanks very much. appreciate it this morning. thank you rush. >> and it's almost. >> 8 a.m. on the east coast. you're watching squawk box on cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with kelly evans. becky and andrew. >> are off today. >> but that doesn't mean that things stop happening. in fact, even though it is a friday. >> friday i'm required to call it that at home now. >> in monday. >> is. >> is a holiday. >> did you know? >> yes, yes. >> did you know it was valentine's. >> day today? >> yes. >> did you know yesterday was the hundredth day of school? i'm learning all sorts. >> of it. >> they have. >> the first. 100 days. >> for. >> that, too. >> it's a whole celebration. you have to dress your kids up. then you have valentine's day with all the. it's a lot of parent homework, right? >> yeah. and you had how many valentines. >> with three sets. >> so you had to bring three sets of. >> valentine's class. >> yeah. >> yeah. >> among today's top. >> stories we're about. >> that might be it, but we're about 30 minutes away from key

economic data retail sales, import export prices. and later this morning, industrial production numbers. meanwhile. >> tiktok has returned. >> to the apple and google app stores. the chinese owned social media. >> app had been removed last. >> month after service in the u.s. was temporarily. halted. pending a ban that was set to take effect. president trump extended. >> the deadline. >> for that ban. >> and the service. >> was restored, but the app remained unavailable to download. >> for new users. >> until last night, and cnbc sport. >> out. >> with its first ever rankings of the most valuable nba franchises this morning. and the golden state warriors were at the top of that list, valued at $9.4 billion. number two, the new york knicks. >> quick check on futures, which are in the red this morning, although not by too much. the s&p would open down six points. frank holland has more on this morning's pre-market movers. frank. >> hey good morning kelly and joe. let's start off with this gamestop. those shares are moving higher. you can see the big spike here up just about 9% on news that the company is exploring alternative investment classes for investment. that

could include crypto and bitcoin in particular. that's what sources are telling cnbc. just last weekend, the ceo ryan cohen, he posted a photo on social media with michael saylor, co founder and chairman of microstrategy. of course, that's the largest corporate holder of bitcoin. take a look at gamestop shares above 9% right now. also looking at moderna shares. you guys were talking about that earlier today. moving lower on earnings. you can see shares are down. i'm going to get to it in just a second. but shares are down. trust me. vaccine maker with a beat on revenue but posted a bigger loss than expected. also a huge miss on margin coming in at 26.5%. the estimate was 45.6% in 2025. the company also says it will remain focused on driving sales and product approvals through 2027. moderna, also aiming to cut $1 billion in cost this year. moderna shares moving lower. also looking at aam shares lower right now after a big pop yesterday on reports that the chip designer is planning to make its own chips starting this year, and has secured meta as one of its first customers. the financial times says the company could unveil

its first in-house chip as early as this summer. the move could really shake up the semiconductor industry and very possibly put arm in competition with some of its biggest customers that include nvidia and qualcomm. kelly and joe, back over to you. >> indeed frank. thank you frank holland. appreciate it. >> in the white house. seeking to renegotiate some of those awards. >> for the us. >> chips act and has signaled delays to some upcoming semiconductor disbursements. this is according to a reuters report that said the new administration is reviewing the projects awarded under the 2022 law. sources told reuters that the white house is concerned about some of the terms underpinning some of those subsidies, including, and we knew this requirements. you got to use all unionized labor. >> to build some. >> factories, help provide affordable child care as part of the deal to get the subsidies for factory workers, report. also said the white house is frustrated by companies that. >> accepted the. >> chip chips act. >> subsidies and.

>> then announced. >> significant overseas expansion plan. that's a no no for donald trump, i would think, including in china, the. law allowed some investments in china. but i think everything is being looked at. we had a story about the irs are. >> in. >> there looking at the irs. >> right? right. >> ixnay on the 85,000. they knew there's no way those 85,000 are ever getting higher. >> but i'm curious with the chips act payments, i know they were trying to get a lot of this stuff out the door and kind of started and ground broken. a lot of these are red states. yeah. so what happens if these payments start to get held up? i mean, are we talking about future stuff? are we talking about stuff that's in the works? >> where was. >> our intel investment? what was the stock when we made that one? >> oh gosh. probably where it is now. >> i mean no. >> no it was like 60. >> was it really. >> it was much higher than what we. >> the problem is now that incentivizes us to care more. >> right. >> exactly. >> but government can't pick who to do these things. >> but it wouldn't that fit into if mogga's whole point is to

prioritize us chip makers for something that a. >> european pronunciation of maga. >> what the hell was that? >> isn't it? is it maga or maga? >> you haven't heard it enough. >> to know. >> it's maga. you're. >> you're partly. >> maga. >> aren't you? >> you lean more maga. >> than not. >> don't. >> you don't know. >> you can't even say it. you can't be. >> it if you can't. >> say it. >> yes, i'm european. >> i think. >> it. might be mar. >> mar. >> which is make america. >> healthy or maga was from modi yesterday. my only point was, look, i don't know how you can have both things at the same time to say we need a domestic chip industry. taiwan's been stealing our chips. fine. but then do you have to go specifically and support one of these companies that has not been competitive? no. >> do you. >> think i want i want your answer. >> i say. >> no, do. >> i say no? >> i say, do you build the chip. >> and stick? >> you don't. you don't just pick winners. give them money and say, please do. well, right. you know what always works? >> incentives. you read. >> about how to make a pencil, right? >> how hard that is. >> but what always. >> i'm. >> going to. >> give you that the pencils made by. >> thousands of different people. >> right. >> right, right.

>> and it's the free market forces. >> adam. >> that doesn't sound very maga. >> to me. that is true. that's the one thing it's a it's a quasi maga. >> quasi maga. >> coming up, a closer look at inflation after this week's hotter than expected january data. >> have you read i pencil or whatever. >> i don't think i have. >> i know it's. >> going to send it to you. >> greg from. >> the. >> wall. >> street journal. >> is going. >> to join. >> us. next on the. challenges for president trump in keeping prices. >> in check. plus, roku. >> shares up about 15%. following positive quarterly results. ceo anthony wood will join us live. squawk box will be right back. sending it to you. >> i bet. greg. >> searching for the. >> perfect underwear tommy john combines innovation and. excellence in every pair available in multi-packs. tommy john's breathable second. >> skin underwear. >> is even softer. >> than. >> cotton, with up to four times the stretch of competing brands, you've. >> also crafted. >> indulgently soft second skin sleepwear for him and her for luxurious evenings and mornings.

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asset.com. >> president trump. >> pledging to lower prices. >> but given. >> this week's surprising cpi. >> number, inflation may prove to be stubborn. the wall street journal's chief economics commentator, greg abe, wrote about the issue and the challenges ahead. he joins us now. and that is, you know, the buck stops here, greg. there's no. doubt i know what you're saying. it's this is. trump's problem. now, i don't think that obviously. i don't think he caused what we saw for those january numbers. but there. >> is some stuff. >> left in the pipeline that is

we know how tough. >> that last mile can be. it's bad if. >> if it was the last mile and it's now a mile and a quarter when it's actually might be headed the other way for three straight months. >> yeah. >> let's make. >> one thing clear. nobody is. blaming trump for these numbers. the last january inflation number happened on biden's watch. and we know that all the forces at work now happened in the prior four years. so even if there is inflation left in the pipeline that we'll see in the next few months, it would be misplaced to say that trump's somehow bears responsibility for it. but the reason i think it's a problem for him nonetheless, is because it kind of casts a shadow over everything he wants to do in the next few years. he wants to raise tariffs. and, you know, we know those are on the margin inflationary. he wants to cut taxes. if they're not fully paid for. that also could add extra demand and inflation pressure. and the thing is joe eight years ago he did the same thing. he cut taxes. he raised tariffs. but at the time inflation was below 2%. so you

could make the case that those steps actually helped inflation come back up to help the fed meet its 2% target. you're now starting out with inflation at around two and a half to 3%. and so these agenda items are pushing inflation away from the fed's target. that's really the core of the issue. >> pretty interesting to think. yeah we in the first trump administration we hit our goal on inflation. we got it up to that's that's fundamentally different than trying to. >> get. >> it down. and you say two and a half to three. there are some people that think it really is three which is way higher than than two and unacceptable. you can't move the goalposts if you're the fed you can't move it to three. you can't. >> well, exactly. >> in fact, i think that powell the fed actually in their last meeting said they're going to do their five year review of their long term goals this year. and one thing that is not up for discussion is the 2% inflation target. and i think that's partly because they've realized over the last few years that people really, really hate

inflation and keeping that inflation number down and around 2% is really, really paramount. now, i don't want to hit the panic button here, joe, because my view and i think the fed's view is that what we're seeing now is a residual effect of things from the last few years. and that all else equal, we should continue to see further progress on the inflation numbers later this year. just because you're seeing some of the high numbers from a year ago drop out, you should start to see the fed's own preferred measure of inflation get down to around 2.5%. it's what happens after that that's kind of up for grabs. and where things like the outlook for tariffs, for oil, for tax cuts for, you know, labor force, given the immigration policies underway, all those things start to come into play. >> is there anything other than. doge that could. >> be deflationary? greg. >> and we had jeff curry on yesterday. >> he's great oil analyst. he said we can't we can say drill, baby, drill, but it's really going to be tough to increase that. i mean, i.

>> could see and i'm. >> not sure that the oil industry wants $40 oil or $50 oil. >> so i don't. >> know if we get cooperation there, but tariffs, whether they come or not, you'd have to. >> say maybe inflationary. >> immigration. >> as you. >> say, inflationary. >> deficit spending. >> if all those. >> you extend the tax cuts and put all the other. >> new. >> tax cuts in there, i. >> don't see how that. would possibly. >> be inflationary. and i agree with you. >> i think. >> trump's got an inflation problem for the midterms. not now. >> and i don't think anyone. >> is going to say bird flu is trump's fault. >> and that's. >> why i mean, elizabeth warren, obviously, you know, any. >> chance she can. >> get for, you know, dissembling. >> but but egg. >> prices are not are not trump's fault. but they're going he's going to be blamed for not bringing them down. >> look you. >> can make the case, joe, actually that if this is the peak in things like eggs, that actually prices will start to go down now and trump will be able to actually look back on a period of flat to falling prices

a year from now. so the picture's really not all that bad. i agree with you on the oil price situation. the paradox is that the only way you're going to get the us oil patch to drill more is with substantially higher oil prices, which is, of course, exactly what trump does not want. but there's a potential offset here. as we know, he started talking to vladimir putin about ending the war in ukraine. obviously, part of trump's hopes is that this could lead to an end, or at least an easing of sanctions on russia that might put more oil on the market, that could bring help, bring the price down. as for the tax cuts, well, the house republicans are making brave sounds about big cuts in spending. and if they're big enough and if they're front loaded enough, that could take some steam out of the economy also. >> i wonder about the about the fed. greg, do you think there'll be another cut, or do you think the next move is a hike? >> i don't think the next move will be a hike. i think that

cuts have been substantially delayed, possibly until next year, partly because i think it's a matter of precaution. the fed would like to make sure that some of these risks that we're talking about work their way through the pipeline. and if you look at the state of the economy, there's no rush. i mean, there was an air pocket in the labor market six months ago. i think that sort of panicked a lot of people. the fed began its easing cycle with a big 50 basis point move, in an effort to try and get back to neutral more quickly. it turns out that the labor market is coming back. it looks fine. and, you know, you don't really see. we'll get the retail sales numbers in a few minutes. i don't see any reason why the fed should be panicked and cutting rates because the economy is weakening. so i think they've got the ability to be patient. but my bet would still be that the next move is a move downward, not upward. >> do you. >> think that. >> that corporate. >> confidence or. >> animal spirits, is. >> it a tangible thing if you.

>> deregulate a lot of sectors of the economy and maybe you cut government. spending eventually, could. that keep things positive in the markets for the next year? is there anything to that that we have a business. >> friendly president. >> now and a lot of stuff that was a. headwind under. >> the biden. >> administration could now be a tailwind. >> is that possible? >> i think it's not just possible. it's possible. i mean, we've seen like the share prices of major banks like goldman sachs go up a lot precisely because they're expecting more deal activity. the problem, of course, is that things like the uncertainty over tariffs are kind of like working in the opposite direction. so in fact, the last month was actually kind of quiet for deal activity. i think the bigger issue, though, joe, is that we know that these regulatory supply side moves, they just work their way through the pipeline very, very slowly and they're very hard to pick up in a measured way. we know they're there. they're just kind of intangible. i think that if i were to say that there were one

kind of black swan out there that could really work in the trump administration's favor, it would be surprising resilience and determination on the part of congressional republicans and the president himself to really get spending down. and in some sense, that could actually be the best of all worlds, because you get that takes a little bit of the pressure off of aggregate demand. and so it sort of like tilts inflation risks downward. it might also start to bring deficits down or at least stop pushing them upwards. you get long rates that start to behave better. and maybe you finally get some relief on mortgage rates. the final thing that might actually do is take some of the air out of the dollar. and we know, of course, that trump cares a lot about the dollar because it's a major factor driving the trade deficit cares about it. how do you want to. >> go up or down? >> i'm not. >> convinced he necessarily wants it. >> to say that. >> strong right. they never admit it. >> but exactly right. so right. he wants it to be the reserve currency, but he also wants it to be weaker. i mean, it's not impossible to have both those things. we've had a reserve currency for 75 years now, and

there are many periods of strength, weakness in that. but on a cyclical basis, you could imagine a scenario where the spending cuts really are quite severe. they help sort of take some of the pressure off long term interest rates and the fed. and that maybe sets the stage for the dollar to weaken somewhat. right. greg. >> you're in a good is it. >> because it's friday. >> greg's in a good mood. >> you know. >> i forgot. >> to tease him about being canadian. >> well, there's. >> no such thing. >> he keeps saying, governor. >> that's american. >> yeah. sorry. we won't. >> we won't. >> go there. how about. >> north american, greg? >> will that work? >> that kind. >> of covers the whole gamut, doesn't it? you're not. >> greenlandian at. >> all, right? no canadian. >> i'm kidding. >> i love canada. >> this is. >> a. >> proud american show. and so we're talking about proud american themes this morning, right. >> you are you are you did. >> i don't feel bad after. >> talking today. >> greg i. >> was worried some. >> greg is greg knows for 20 years greg i've been how i've loved greg for 20 years. i was in college. >> when i first. >> it's valentine's day.

>> yeah. >> he's feeling the love. >> all right, greg. >> just like, leave one thought with you guys this morning. you know, trump is sort of, like, filling our minds and our airwaves with the stuff. he's doing everything everywhere, all at once. but i've covered the macro economy for a long time, and i know things like growth and unemployment, inflation are big, complicated phenomena. and that no matter how newsworthy what the president does, it's often other stuff that ends up driving these key indicators. i mean, nobody predicted the global financial crisis, nobody predicted. >> covid. >> nobody thought that russia would invade ukraine. i think that there are going to be a lot of factors driving the economy and inflation over the next 12 months that go beyond the scope of what we've just been talking about. >> well, we're. >> still going. >> to panic every day about something that trump's doing either way, greg. so even though it's going to be something. else that ends up killing us. >> anyway. >> i hope you'll i hope you'll invite me back and talk about it. >> let's. >> do you have an open invite? or you can go on kelly's show any day. >> to anytime, right. >> we cover both. thanks. >> take a look at the shares of

roku up 14% today. we'll talk to roku up 14% today. we'll talk to the this is steve. steve takes voquezna. this is steve's stomach, where voquezna can kick some acid, heal erosive esophagitis, also known as erosive gerd, and relieve related heartburn. voquezna is the first and only fda-approved treatment of its kind. 93% of adults were healed by 2 months. of those healed, 79% stayed healed. plus, voquezna can provide heartburn-free days and nights, and is also approved to relieve heartburn related to non-erosive gerd. other serious stomach conditions may exist. don't take if allergic to voquezna or while on rilpivirine. serious allergic reactions include trouble breathing, rash, itching, and swelling of face, lips, tongue, or throat. serious side effects may include kidney problems, intestinal infection, fractures, life-threatening skin reactions, low b-12 or magnesium levels, and stomach growths. tell your doctor about your medical conditions, medications,

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>> from any advisor. >> he teaches. >> how to invest. >> versus just what trades to make. >> return on investment for the club pays for itself. >> join the club. new members save with a special offer for a limited time at cnbc.com. jim. terms and restrictions apply. >> welcome back. shares of roku are jumping this morning up 14% after an upbeat earnings report. getting some upgrades now. higher price targets across wall street. julia boorstin joins us now with the details. and a very special guest. hi julia. >> hi kelly. that's right i'm joined now by roku ceo anthony wood. anthony thanks for joining us. on the heels of these better than expected results. you saw a lot of strength in advertising. break that down for us. how much of that was a reflection of a stronger ad market versus. new products and options? you're giving advertisers? >> sure. hey.

>> it's great. >> to. >> be here. thanks, julia. >> yeah, it. >> was a. >> really great quarter. >> we're really proud. >> of it. >> we platform. revenue was up 25% year over year. we passed. >> you know. >> more than. >> half of us. >> broadband households now watch television with a roku tv or a roku streaming player. the roku channel streaming hours are up 82% year over year. >> and that so. >> that. strong platform growth was driven by our strategy, which. has really three components. so one is focusing on making better use of our home screen. >> you know. >> half of us broadband households and more than half start their tv viewing experience with the roku home screen. that's where they figure out what to watch television. it's a great asset, very strategic for us. so making better use. >> of that. >> advertising is a big part of our business. and so a big focus for us in our strategy. >> is to. >> continue to grow demand by working better with third party partners, both more. >> third party. >> partners as well as deepening those relationships. and then subscriptions is a big business

for us as well. and so just focusing more on subscriptions, making. better use of our home screen, you know, advertising did really well in the quarter. very strong. i mean, obviously there was political advertising, which is unique to the quarter, that the election and that did well for us. i mean, it's something that we're starting to get better at. we didn't do as well in the prior election cycle. this time we really focused on it and we did did well. i think we'll keep getting better at that. but advertising actually in general was up really strong on the on the platform driven by all the verticals across the board. and also just our strategy of leaning into demand side platforms. so, you know, it's going it's going really well. >> yeah. >> another player in the ad connected tv space direct. i'm sorry. the trade desk is launching a new competitor. so i'm curious, how much do you think that could eat into your growth in that arena? >> there's even. >> been some speculation that you could merge with the trade desk. >> you know. >> our strategy.

>> like i said, part of our strategy in terms of growing our ad business is to work better and deeper with third party partners. trade desk is a great partner for us. you know, we work well with them. you know, we have, like i. >> said. >> half of broadband households, over half use roku to watch television stream. we have a lot of streaming hours on the platform, probably the about the largest connected tv platform by a pretty wide margin. and so we're important partners for companies like trade desk that need access to ad inventory. and they're a good partner for us. it's a mutually beneficial relationship, you know, in terms of their operating system, they've announced. i mean. >> you know, we. >> we competed for years with much larger companies with much more resources that are building streaming operating systems. despite that, we're the number one streaming operating system in the country and in most of the americas by a wide margin. and it's because that's what we do. we're really good at it. we're focused on it. we've been doing it for years. we build a great experience for our viewers. we have a technology stack that's unique. you know, we have a purpose built operating system just for tv,

and we have a lot of scale, you know, and viewers love their roku's and they come into stores, ask for them by name. so you know. we compete every day. and you know, when it comes to companies like the trade desk, we're really just focused on becoming a great partner and growing our ad sales by partnerships with them. >> there's another change happening in the world in which you're operating in, which is walmart's acquisition of vizio. some analysts have said that that could mean that walmart could deprioritize and diminish the sort of availability or the promotion of your products. are you worried about that or what's your outlook there? >> you know, if you look. >> at streaming households, which is, you. >> know. >> which we grow by by selling first party televisions, we work with third parties for roku tvs, and then we build our own streaming players. that's sort of the strategy. those products are widely distributed and they're loved by consumers. i mean, we have a brand that's consumers love. and so and we added through that strategy, we added over 4 million new

streaming households in the quarter. we passed 90 million streaming households. you know, we said last quarter, we're on track to get to 100 million streaming households in the next 12 to 18 months. and that's that's coming through both domestic us growth and international growth. and of course. you know, i mean, we're aware that walmart bought vizio, but we have a strong partnership with walmart. i fully expect walmart to keep selling roku tvs because they're asked for by walmart customers. and we fully expect i fully expect our streaming households to continue to grow in the us and internationally as well. >> anthony, one of the most striking numbers to me in your quarter was the increase in streaming hours on the roku channel. free ad supported tv that they were up 85% in the quarter. how can you sustain that kind of growth? >> it's yeah. >> streaming hours and the roku channel up a lot. and it's been like that for several quarters now. i mean, the roku channel is very popular on roku. it's a lot

of free content as well as premium subscriptions. our live linear channels. and we it really it grows for two reasons. one is we're better and better content. but the other really important reason is the fact that that the roku experience is how viewers find content to watch. and so we're able to promote that content in our user experience. and that's really what drives the growth of the roku channel. that's why we have such strong growth in hours and on an absolute basis, a lot of hours of viewing of our content, despite the fact that our content budget is actually fairly modest compared to most, most streaming services, because we can use the power of our platform and our home screen to help promote that content. >> and we see a bit of the home screen behind you. anthony, thanks so much for joining us to talk about these better than expected results. we're going to send it back over to you. >> thanks. >> okay. >> thank you. julia and anthony. all right. we are just seconds away from retail sales and import price data. the futures this morning have been weak for most of the session. giving back

a little bit of yesterday's gains now down. they've improved not 100 anymore. not triple digits anyway on the dow. rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago. he is ready to parse these numbers for us from from beginning to end. good morning rick. >> yes from beginning to end. >> once again. viewers listeners. >> there's a lot of. >> numbers i'll i'll. go slow. >> retail sales, by the way, has had four consecutive positive months in a row. will it be five? the answer is no. january retail sales. comes in. >> on the. >> light side. >> disappointment. we're expecting. >> down just a smidge. minus 9/10. minus 9/10. that'll be. >> the biggest negative month. >> over month. >> change. >> going all the way equals january of 24. you have to. >> go. >> to march of 23 to find a bigger negative month over month number. now these are advance which means in a couple of weeks they may change. if you strip out autos it improves marginally. it's still down 4/10. you strip out autos and

gas. it's down 5/10. that would be the weakest level really. since january of last year. and finally, the core retail sales or the control number comes in down 8/10. that's real disappointment. we're expecting. >> that to. >> be positive. now there are revisions and minus. >> eight tenths just to. >> put a face on it. that would be the weakest core retail. >> sales since march of 23. now we. >> have revisions on everything across the board. >> i just gave. >> you and all the revisions are positive, so it will take some of the sting away. headline went from 0.4 to 0.7. positive x autos. >> from 0.4. >> to 0.7. ex autos and gas from. >> 0.3 to 0.5. >> and you saw the control number improve. from 0.7. >> to 0.8. >> but we want to really watch these numbers and see if they. >> change at all. >> in the coming weeks when we get our final reads. import export prices. these are also for january. if you look at import prices on a month over month basis, up 3/10, if you

strip out petroleum, it's up one tenth. if you look at import prices year over year. up 1.9%. and just to put a face on that as well, our last look was up 2.2%. so it is moderating to some extent. if you look at export prices month over month, this is a biggie. we're expecting 3/10. it is multiples of that four times that 1.3%. that would be the biggest export price increase. going all the way back. to this is going to be a ways on this one. 1.3 would take me to da da da. we're looking at may of 22, may of 22. so that is way back. you know, export prices being on the high side. consider where the dollar index was a good portion of 24. and it has slipped a bit obviously. and finally the last category export prices year over year well expected 1.4. once again export prices zooming here up 2.7. that'll be the biggest

export increase going back to all the way the end of 22, the end of 22. so much of that jives with some of the inflation data. we've seen a couple of things to throw out there, joe. you know, some of the retail sales may have been affected by things like weather and other issues, exogenous issues. the dollar index, by the way, is now 106 handle, meaning it's under 107. if my memory serves me right, we haven't closed under 107 on the dollar index since mid december, so this could be a new low close for the dollar index for all of 2025. and of course a little bit beyond that. the other issue we want to point to is interest rates really fighting at some very key levels we may spend some time on. we're now down at 449. so we're below 4.5%. 449 would be down four on the day. it is now down a couple on the week, which is significant to monitor. the weekly numbers are quite important. and if you look at a two year note at 426 right

now, that would be down three basis points on the week. any close under four and a half in a ten, any close under four and three quarters on a 30, i still say is probably going to be an event that's more rare as we move through the year. back to you. >> all right. >> rick, we had. >> discussion with greg up. >> a little. >> earlier, and a couple of things surprised me that he came up with in that, you know, what goes up must come down. egg prices aren't going to stay up here. that could be, you know, at least that small part of things could come down. i don't know what happens with with russia in ukraine, but if all goes back on the market, what, you know, if there's some type of, of resolution that could be deflationary, do we know for sure that everything is lined up to be inflationary. >> for. >> the next year? i was sort of you know, we're. told that because of the tariffs and some of the other things, there's definitely. >> inflation left in. >> the pipeline. but from all the money printing, but is the

moves that trump makes. definitely going to be or this administration makes. is it. definitely going to be inflationary. >> are we headed. >> higher from here? >> you know, i. think the best way to answer that is there's many viewers, listeners out there that are big sports fans, whether it's baseball, basketball, football, and many times, you know, you see teams trying to put together strategies and players and everybody's handicapping fantasy football, how it's all going to turn out. i look at that as a good analogy here. you know trump has a plan. his administration has a plan. many of these plans were out in the public long before he was elected president again. and i do think that there's possibilities of many different divergent directions. but at the end of the day, to see the way the tariff arguments, the tariff strategies, the tariff news stories, breaking news has kind of morphed. now we're talking about reciprocal. you know, you pull the average american joe. you think they're going to have a problem with the us treating others exactly the way they

treat us. i think that there's much brighter possibilities at the end of the tunnel. could there be some detours? i've said it once again. listen, all the things that this president wants to do are going to be hard to do. you know, hard to take a dollar out of anyone's hands or business or company or subsidy once the government gives it on the inflation front, a lot of it is cooked in. yeah, bird flu will pass eggs, prices will go down. but things like auto parts, auto servicing, auto insurance, housing, insurance, some of these biggies even anything to do with buying a house. i see those as being sticky as far as the eye can see, because i think many industries have really, really had tough times in the past with some of the policies like mandates and subsidies. you know, we have all these great guests on that have companies that want to do, you know, clean energy. but the problem is their business models are still focused on subsidies. so what lies ahead? it is murky, murky,

murky. and uncertainty is difficult to price. >> it is. >> it is all right. >> happy valentine's day. >> you already got a valentine, rick. i'm sure you do. i won't even ask. >> i absolutely do, absolutely do. and joe, i'll be out next week taking my valentine on a cruise. >> oh, excellent. excellent. >> watch out. >> for the lettuce and stuff. i don't know. cruise is. >> be careful. >> wild whales. i will. >> okay, okay. see you later. >> coming up, we'll talk about the impact of tariffs and trade between us and india with raghu rajan, former governor of india's central bank, might ask him about inflation and these other issues as well. squawk box will be right back. >> it's not if the markets turn. >> it's when. >> at howard capital management, our proprietary family of funds, actively. navigates complex. >> market landscapes while seeking to safeguard your tomorrow. >> we aim to. >> empower investors, delivering.

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sanding and refinishing if you want to keep that sharp, look. if you don't want to sand and. >> oil every. >> year. >> you. >> want low maintenance. >> go with timbertech. >> dew point. >> president trump held a press conference with indian prime minister narendra modi yesterday. both leaders agreeing to trade talks to lower tensions. joining us to discuss the implications is raghu rajan, former governor of the reserve bank of india and professor of finance at the university of chicago booth school of business. it's great to see you again. how significant is the u.s. india relationship right now? >> i think it's important. >> you know, india. is 1.4 billion people. it's a.

>> growing economy, the. >> fastest in the g20. >> and. >> you know. >> the kinds of ties across all spectra. >> you have defense ties. >> you have. >> trade ties. >> you have digital trade ties. and of course, you have a. >> diaspora in. >> indian diaspora. >> in the. >> us. >> which is. >> very well placed. >> so i think this is important. >> i think. >> it could be a key relationship in. the 21st century. and, you. >> know, the leaders. >> get along well. i think. >> there's some. >> chemistry between president trump and prime. >> minister modi. >> you know, i we could delve into that. i'm also curious, raghu, just for your thoughts on on the us economy. retail sales. just disappointed. we are talking with greg a little while ago about, you know, how to figure out the where inflation is going from here. i see now fights emerging about whether we should really care about pce instead of cpi because of the way it calculates medicare and medicaid prices. >> well, well. >> whenever inflation is high. we have. >> all the stock in every

country. >> about whether the index. >> is right, whether. >> it's. >> sort of overly focused on certain. >> elements which shouldn't be there. >> i mean, the reality. >> is the us is. >> has been. >> growing fairly strongly. >> above potential. and of. >> course. >> what. we have. >> right now, as. >> you just discussed, is. >> a lot of. >> policy uncertainty. >> both on the. >> negative side with potential tariffs. >> but also. >> on the positive side. >> with business. >> sentiment, on taxes and so on. so i think at this point, it's anybody's. >> guess which direction. >> the economy will move. >> which. >> is, you know. >> a large. >> reason why the fed. >> is staying put. of course. >> there's also. >> a question. >> about the inflation. >> numbers in. >> january. >> which tend to have a seasonality that may not be. >> fully corrected for. >> but the operative term. >> right now. >> is uncertainty. >> and wait. >> and see. >> could we use the india case maybe as an example. so as joe was talking about earlier, you know, there's now thousands of line items that officials are

reviewing with all of our trading partners to see. well, what do they tariff us at and what what should we tariff them at. what does india i saw that india is now lowering tariffs on like harley davidsons for instance. what other kinds of tariffs do they have on us goods. >> well i think on cars. and motorcycles. certainly the. >> tariffs that india. >> places on. us goods are much. >> lower. >> much higher than the. tariffs that the us places. that said. >> i think if you look at. >> the entire relationship, india does. run a pretty large trade surplus with respect to the united states. >> there is scope for india to buy more. >> for example. >> natural gas. india has. >> a. demand for that. >> it needs to build. >> out some of the. >> infrastructure facilities to take. >> more of that. but that could be an important positive to the relationship. the other. >> important area. >> is india's. >> the world's. >> largest defense. >> goods importer, and india needs to move away. >> from. >> a dependance on russia. so that would mean more cooperation with. >> the us, and. especially if it

goes to new. >> tech stuff like drones and ai. i think it will serve both countries well. >> yeah. so do you kind of look at that and from sort of a dispassionate point of view and think, you know, it's probably good for india to lower those, those tariff rates or barriers and probably i don't know, i don't know what the us might plan in return, you know, as it relates to india or any of these other countries. is it is it sensible policy? >> well, i. >> think it's. >> it's reasonable. >> to push. >> other countries. >> to reduce their tariff rates. it would be, i. >> think. harmful for india if. >> the net. >> result is tariff rates. >> in the. >> us go up. >> vis a vis indian goods. but i think it is beneficial if india lowers some. >> of these tariff rates. the worry is. >> that. it's more than just india's. >> tariff rates. >> whether. >> you know, there's a lot. >> of talk that the only deficit that is reasonable is zero deficit. >> well, you know, the. >> us runs. >> a. >> deficit for a variety of other reasons than just tariffs. >> and if the if the.

>> discussion is based on outcomes like the net deficit rather than. >> you know. >> what tariffs. >> india sets. >> i think then we could get into. murky waters and a lot of uncertainty. >> yeah. and we're talking about trade deficits. of course we could talk about the other kind of deficits but maybe for another time. raghu thanks for joining us. good to see you this morning. >> likewise. >> thank you, raghu rajan. >> coming up. >> saturday night. >> live celebrating. >> its 50th anniversary this weekend, some former cast members are here to ring the opening bell. they're going to join us on. >> set next. >> squawk box will be right back. >> in a world of uncertainty and disruption, how will your investments stay resilient? we've been. navigating change for 125 years, always looking forward, anticipating risks and. trusted to manage over $1 trillion in assets worldwide. solving for the needs of investors today and tomorrow.

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shaping tomorrow, today. it's all. >> about the numbers. >> we know he wants to hold on to the nba. the question really is how much more will he have to pay? >> a lot of the revenue streams are guaranteed. >> team values continuing. >> to soar. >> the cnbc sport official nba team valuations are in special reports all day. cnbc. >> welcome back to squawk box. futures, believe it or not, have improved after the bad retail sales report. maybe it's bad news is good news kind of pushes up the likelihood of fed cuts i don't know it's not a huge move. won't make too much of it. but the dow would be lower 57 points right now. nasdaq and s&p only by a point. check on the ten year. maybe that can help confirm the narrative. it was earlier around 452 447. so it

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stop by granger for the ones who. >> get. >> it done. >> live we are live, live. >> we're live from new york only this is squawk box. but saturday night live, celebrating its 50th anniversary. >> with. >> a star studded three hour live special airing on sunday at 8 p.m. eastern on nbc and streaming on peacock, featuring legendary alumni, iconic hosts, musical guests and a red carpet event. today, some are here at the nasdaq. ringing the opening bell. joining us now are present

and former snl cast members alex moffat, garrett morris, taran killam, jay pharoah and chloe fineman. it's great to have you all here. >> thank you for having us, joe. >> great to. >> be here. >> this is fun. >> yeah. >> let's remember. >> i remember everything. >> i remember garrett, garrett, you you guys weren't even born. most of you, i don't think. >> don't say that. >> but they're right. >> hey, i. >> was there. i wrote. >> an. >> elevator with. >> you after i won a contest to come down and see saturday night. >> live. >> in the. >> contest. >> 1979, imitating bill murray. >> but was that part of your pride to ride in an elevator with me? >> you happened to be on the elevator. >> i almost fainted to see the real garrett morris up close and personal. but you think of. >> there's a little murray. >> give us a little murray. >> i sang happy birthday. >> let's hear it. >> happy birthday. ken shelton. that was. >> the i get it, i get it. >> as nick wings. >> in the airport lounge. that was the dj on the boston radio

station. i threw his name in there and they let me win the stupid contest. but that's enough. >> about dave. >> d.o.j. don, don! >> dang it, i blew it, chloe. >> there's nothing. >> like this. >> there's nothing like this. this run, nothing like it. and you look at major hollywood stars. i can name. >> some of the biggest. >> mega stars that are saturday night alumni. there's nothing like this. and there's no one like lorne michaels and all you guys. >> that's right. >> that's right. >> yeah. >> and did. >> you all see. >> saturday night. >> that movie itself? >> no. >> anybody i happened. >> to see it. >> i just. >> saw it on. >> the plane. >> lamorne did, i think a. >> wonderful job, right. >> you got a beautiful, handsome guy? of course. yeah. >> he's great. >> yeah. >> yeah. >> i thought they needed more time. to do. >> what they were trying to do. >> i thought it should be a television thing, but it got about four. >> hours to do. >> what they tried. >> to do in two hours, right? >> of course, i thought lemon.

lemon was brilliant in what he. >> did. but i. >> cannot say that. >> yeah, yeah, yeah. >> sounds like i'm. >> not panning this thing at all. >> no, it's like a. >> beautiful dramatization. >> it's. i think for anybody who's actually experienced. the show, it's a little far. you have to suspend a lot of. disbelief in terms of like, i don't think that much was happening. the 90 minutes in the lead. >> up to the first episode, belushi. >> stuff and. yeah. >> yeah, but but but very much you could tell that jason and the entire, you know, crew. loved snl as we do. and i think it really. honored the show in that way. it was made with love. >> can you think of. >> anything else culturally that had a bigger impact on on life in america? >> only 60. >> minutes. >> even 60? >> i don't think so. i don't think as much. >> well, take a minute to think. >> it's going to go on until the end. >> of time. >> yeah. >> sports and. >> sports i don't i. still don't think so. >> your favorite sport i. >> mean i. >> got the one with the balls. >> you know. >> freaking jocks, am i right? >> two words, eddie murphy. >> i can.

>> i can give you i can give you 22. >> word answers to what? spawn. and i don't. >> know, how. >> is it. lorne in his ability to pick writers and. >> talent like you? how does it. >> happen again and again? >> reinvent it every couple of years. >> he invests, you know, to bring it back to the stock market. >> so tight. >> that was tight. >> that's what we're talking about. >> yeah. >> by the. >> way is squawk box here. you can complain about stuff. >> first time. >> viewer you haven't seen me. oh absolutely. >> complaints don't complain about salary. >> all right bro. >> yeah yeah yeah. let's complain about saturday. >> absolutely. >> let's do. >> we want. >> mo money. >> mo money, mo money. >> that's right. i want some screen time. >> i don't know if i don't know if i'll. >> be on the screen. >> but it'll be fun. you know what. >> i mean? >> it was a coin flip for me. that squawk box was either going to be nasdaq focused or children's programing on pbs. >> yeah. you guys don't have as many puppets. >> as i. >> thought.

>> you were. yeah, yeah. >> squawking squawk. you know what a squawk box is? it's every investment manager. >> this guy with two drinks in him. >> yeah. >> no, in the old days, that would be on a desk. and they'd learn what was happening and. >> what the. >> special was on it. >> and this. >> this show is, is 1995. >> okay. >> so what. >> is that? >> it's a good run. >> for. >> 30 years. >> that's incredible. i was here then too, but i. you know what's weird? the way. >> it seems. >> to me, there's a squawk box 30 year concert. >> that's a good idea. >> you should, you should. >> but you have to. >> i mean. >> each generation. >> thinks saturday night live is something different. i think. still think gilda and laraine and john and. bill and aykroyd. and i'm a. >> i'm. and i think of i'm on a boat and weekend update. >> they're saying dana. or i mean every generation it's just. >> people have grown. >> up with it. i don't know of anything else.

>> that can match. >> it. >> but sure, if you remember. >> me and. >> john and you are aging yourself. >> you i know i am. i'm not afraid. i'm not, i'm not afraid. yeah, i definitely yeah, but definitely aging myself. >> i have. >> people who remember. >> me from that, you know, i want people to remember me. some other stuff. >> i did. >> and. >> who don't even know about that. >> and i cannot say that i remember i met this 12 year old, young white boy in like 1990 or something like. >> that. >> and he. >> knew about saturday night live, knew what. i did. >> right. >> and this is the truth. we were talking we talked about elvis presley. he didn't know who elvis presley. >> was. >> but he knew saturday night live. >> but he knew. >> how do. >> we know about lorne is this he said 50 years would be a good time to. but. but that doesn't mean. he's leaving. >> does it? no. >> the only insider trading i can give you is that we had a lighting designer, phil heims. rest in peace. sorry to all

those in the afterlife having to deal with phil calling you too shiny, but he worked on the show till he was in his 90s. and lorne, i would hear him say, like, i want to do that. did any of you come from. >> second city or. >> any of the. >> groundlings. >> groundlings, groundlings. >> groundlings. >> just pointing to taryn. >> i did all the like. >> chicago institution. you did. >> like io the annoyance. >> i did a few things at second city, but they weren't a big fan of the moth dog, so. >> i kind. >> of claim more. >> io now. the moth dogs on the squawk box d.o.j. dawn bam bam bam. >> you guys. >> keep making fun of squab. have you seen. no, no, no. have you seen anybody sn ? >> anybody? we joke when we are feel insecure. >> yeah. >> tell me. >> about it. tell me. >> about it. >> i'm familiar. >> with that. >> i think this is really a pleasure to have you on, and i cannot. i'm not kidding. 50 year fan. and culturally, i don't think anything comes close.

congratulations. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> so much. >> thank you. >> you're very welcome. >> alex moffat. >> garrett morris, jay pharoah, chloe fineman. >> did i miss someone? >> taran killam. >> i guess. >> and taryn. >> and taryn. last but not least. >> we're almost done, i think. oh. >> no. >> we're not coming right back. >> make sure. >> you. >> join us on tuesday. >> you won't be here. >> fun way to spend a friday morning, though. it was great. >> make sure you join us. >> on tuesday. >> squawk on the street. coming up. squawk on the street. >> squawk! i got no beef. >> with squawk. >> they're nuts. >> love it. >> watch. >> a good friday morning. welcome to squawk on the street. >> i'm carl. >> quintanilla with leslie picker. mike santoli a post nine of the new york stock exchange. kramer in favor of the morning off pre-market. pretty steady s&p on track for a positive week but yields a bit lower here as we get the worst drop in monthly retail sales in nearly two years. ten years back below