>> yeah. >> so we got walmart next week. that's a big one, especially from both the consumer read in general and at the lower end. >> yeah we got lots of fed speak too. we got minutes and some chinese tech earnings. but that's going to do it for us here at over time. happy valentine's. >> day happy valentine's day. i was going to say it. you beat me to it. it was a lovely show. fast money starts now. >> and we're sending hearts your way. >> as well. live from the. nasdaq market site. >> in the. >> heart of new york. >> city's times square. >> this is fast. money for a. >> valentine's day. and here's. what's on tap tonight. wall street's love and meta. >> the stock. >> now riding a 20 day win streak. how long can that rally last? and will the rest of the magnificent seven join the party? well, we'll debate that. >> plus, on a roll. >> casino stocks are rocking mgm. draftkings, wynn surging this week. >> should you roll the. >> dice on this rally? stick around to find out. and later. roku's rebound. why? one of our traders likes it. >> more than netflix. >> european stocks.

>> are having. >> a weak. >> time to trade, having a weak time to trade it or fade it, and rocketing higher. we will break down the soaring valuations in. >> the nba. >> ahead of all. >> star weekend. >> nice to be back. >> with you i'm tyler mathisen in for melissa lee tonight. >> here in studio. b at the nasdaq. >> on the desk tonight steve. grasso mike co not actually here. >> on. >> the desk. >> julie beil. >> remote as well. and former bridgewater chief strategist rebecca patterson also. >> a senior fellow. >> at the council on foreign relations. >> we start. >> with that. >> magnificent run in metta shares adding another 1% today, extending their win streak. now to an astonishing 20 straight days. this is a joe dimaggio. like streak. the tech giant has added nearly. >> $320 billion. >> in market cap in that time, bringing. >> its. >> total value within a stone's throw of $2 trillion. >> and even as broad markets. >> close back. >> in on. >> records. >> meta has. >> thus far. >> outperformed the major indexes during its run.

>> it has also. >> been head and shoulders above the rest of the so-called big seven, as you. >> see there. >> seeing gains almost triple those of its closest rival. that would. >> be apple. >> so what. >> can we make of meta's recent rally, and can it continue to lead the market higher? steve, let's start with you. what do you think of meta? and what more broadly do you think of the mag seven. >> show in your terms? 56 game winning streak. right. we're going for that. is that what you're. >> going for? >> because most people watching the show do not know about joe d's winning hitting streak. >> probably don't know who joe. >> de is. >> that's a. >> fair point. >> that's a fair point. mr. coffee. mr. >> coffee. >> so when you look at meta, not over 95% or right. right thereabouts is what the what revenue percentage of revenue is derived from ad sales. so if there's a hiccup in the economy this one's going to feel it the most. but when you look at everything that they've done right, they are the 2,000 pound gorilla in the room. google

meta. and when you see the two horses, google is actually less dependent on search than meta is dependent on on ad sales. but now you saw that you saw the headline today that they're having a huge investor. they're putting a huge investment into humanoid robot. so i think they're doing a lot of they kiss the ring the same way that musk did. >> with. >> with trump. and now they're developing robots. >> the same. >> way that musk did with optimus. they're going a bunch of different angles. all of them seem to be a chance to monetize something else. but make no mistake about it, this is an advertising company. and if the economy pulls back in a little bit, stumbles, and people pull back on their ad sales, they are going to feel it the most. >> julie. >> let me turn to you and bring you into the conversation. meta is going to spend something like $56 billion in capital spending this year. they are not. correct me if i'm wrong here. >> one of. >> the leading players in ai, not to say that they're not

involved in and benefiting from ai. >> but what are. >> they going to spend all that all that $56. billion on and how soon should they expect or investors expect it to pay off for them. >> well i. >> think that that's the. >> that's the subtlety. >> is that it actually. >> is paying off. >> for them. right. their investments. >> in ai are enabling. >> them to be much, much more. >> targeted in their. >> advertising, and they've been able to. offset all of the headwinds that they had from the initial security issues with apple. >> they've really. >> been able. >> to. >> push right past through that. >> and set themselves up. >> as having. >> large language models that are as good as the. others open source, which. makes it kind of a different wrinkle for them. >> but i think. >> that what's interesting about this company is that they really eat their own cooking. when it comes to ai, they're really able to integrate that into their tools and sell more ads. i agree completely with steve that there's much more sensitivity to ad spend, but i think that they've now demonstrated that using ai to make the ads reach

people better is actually going to make them the last resort for advertisers. >> all right. so mike, 25% higher so far this year. >> we're barely six. >> weeks into the new year. if i am not a. meta holder now have i missed the ride. is it. >> is there still time. >> is this a long term. >> investment that. >> i should feel safe buying today? >> yeah, i mean, that's a great question. and it's interesting because as a meta enthusiast, i was sort of asking myself that very question if i wasn't already bullish on the name and enjoyed some of this ride, would i be entering it here? i would have to say that on on a short term basis, it feels a little bit stretched to me. i mean, just its relative strength and everything else. it's just seems like it's a little bit difficult to chase it here, but if you own it, i wouldn't, i wouldn't sell it and that i realize that's a little bit of a waffle. but, you know, this is a name that's probably going to between 2025 and 2026, generate something in

the neighborhood of 20% free cash flow growth. you know, we're looking at two and a half, 2.6% free cash flow yield on the name, which is obviously very good. the other thing i would say just about management and people's concerns about their capex, don't forget that, you know, this was a company that was really making huge investments in the metaverse that was very badly observed, i would say, by the street. and they pivoted. right. so they sort of acknowledged that, you know, maybe that investment wasn't going to pay off. and they, you know, basically turned things around and turned on the cash flow spigot. i have a feeling that the same thing is true here. i think they're being pretty cautious about their their spend. so if they think a $50 billion investment is the right idea, i think we should actually give them the benefit of the doubt at this stage. >> all right. >> so rebecca. >> steve makes the very interesting point that that meta is in part economically dependent. >> in other. >> words, if the economy slows or. >> stumbles. >> its advertising is likely to come down. so i know that

individual. >> stocks aren't your. >> thing, but broad macro trends are. do you see the us economy in any sign of sort in any way, sort of slowing down? and what might, for example, tariffs or. other headwinds mean for a company like meta? >> yeah, i think the thing i would worry about most right now is that the tsunami of policy announcements and uncertainty. around them. you have a tariff. when do you have a tariff? will it be negotiated away or not? >> it all. >> of this, frankly, noise can create uncertainty, both for consumers but especially for businesses. if there's enough uncertainty that they start pulling back so consumers spend a little bit less, businesses hire a few less people, or make fewer investments that can start creating a negative feedback loop. and that could quickly go into things like ad spending, because at the end of the day, ad spending is discretionary. it's going to be the thing. >> you. >> cut off first. so i would worry a little bit about

uncertainty. and for that keep an eye on the sentiment indices, things like pmi, ism, university of michigan. those are going to give you pretty good early signs. if that uncertainty. >> of what. >> the consumer what the consumer is feeling like. yeah. all right. let's take a pause and talk a little bit more about the underperformance of the other big seven stocks apart from meta. let's to do that. let's bring in gene munster, managing partner at deepwater asset management i'm. >> i'm prone. >> to say that the mag seven has become the lag seven except for meta gene. >> indeed tyler. >> the meta is up. >> 23% over the last month. the rest of the mag seven down one. if you pull tesla out, that's been a big drag on that, it would be. >> up to. so compare. >> that to the nasdaq over the last month, which is up almost 5%. this is definitely a different message. that we've seen from this leadership group over the past couple years. and i want to just quickly frame in why i think what is going on here beyond meta. i think what is going on is that this is

almost becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, with investors just looking back and looking at these trillion dollar plus market caps and just mathematically trying to understand what percentage performance they can get relative to some other smaller names. and i think you have this dynamic playing out. i in fairness to the mag seven, i do want to quickly recap the scorecard from the december quarter. four of those six companies reported their four of the six companies, the six of the mag, seven that reported four had positive results. a couple had some a little bit of hair on them, but all six were, i would say, doubling down in uber, optimistic about how this year is going to play out, how next year is going to play out. and so i think the context of this is that the fundamentals continue to be strong. one last piece is, despite my optimism around the mag seven, i do think you're going to see more outperformance from smaller companies. i think just at deep water in terms of how we're

investing, we're focusing still on the same themes, but companies that are kind of that sub 500 billion market cap in this frontier tech realm, so still own some of the mag seven, but we've shifted some of our focus to some of these smaller companies. >> what you're what you're pinpointing there. and i'll get steve to jump in here in just a second. what you're pinpointing here is a kind of rotation that a lot of people have been talking about and expecting for the past year or so. and now maybe, maybe those days are upon us. is that a fair characterization of what you're thinking, gene? >> exactly. and i mean, i'd say that again, i think we own many of the mag seven. i think they're going to do great reward investors. but i think this outperformance piece is going to shift to some of these smaller companies. and ultimately they are participating along with the mag seven. they just haven't been this flight to quality. the key is this as long as the broader market holds together, i think you're going to see better outperformance from these smaller companies.

>> so gene, i'm going to pick right up where you where you left off. so when you look at the broader market, the broader market is 40% dependent on mag seven pretty much. so without mag seven the broader market sort of fades. and we saw meta tyler brought it up 65 billion in capex. we saw microsoft 85 billion in capex. we saw amazon 104 billion capex. if deep seq threw the grenade into that pile, what are they going to pivot and spend all this money on? if even if deep seq is a scam, there's got to be some efficiencies that's out there that they don't need to spend what they're spending now, what do they pivot. >> to. >> spending on? >> i think from the mega-caps, it's still going to be i think it's still going to be that same story that we've had. i still believe we're very early in this, and i still believe we're going to have a great two year bull market that's going to end in a spectacular bursting of the bubble. one piece to steve

really quick. you talked about that 40% of the market and can can if the mag seven doesn't work, how can the rest of the market work. and i do believe that the mag seven will continue to work. i think that as long as they're moving higher, i think these other stocks will will continue to do well. i mean, from our perspective, one thing we haven't etf and it's tickers l o p that focuses on these smaller companies. and it's been up 9% this year. as i mentioned the nasdaq up five. it's that kind of dynamic that we're seeing. and so we're closely watching this dynamic play out i. >> was about to let you go, but i'm going to come back to something you just said. but i also want to get a couple of names in that sub 500 sub sub $20 billion market cap that have caught your attention. so give me a couple of names there quickly. and then i want to follow up with one quick question. >> so one of them is celestica a name that many don't know. this is a it's basically a switch.

company competes with cisco gaining share. it's needed for the development. another one is reddit. many know but still i think underappreciated what they're doing with their data related to training. >> i talk about throwing the grenade. i heard you say, if i heard you right, that we have two more years of a good bull market and then a spectacular bursting of the bubble. >> it's going to be great. it'll be. >> good to. >> be great, right? >> get me. >> out of here. >> i love it so. so explain why and what what what does that mean? spectacular. a bursting of the bubble of technology shares broadly. or the. >> seven or what? we're not at euphoria right now. if you look at the valuations, the mag seven still excluding tesla trading at 25 times earnings, we're not even close to euphoria. euphoria was 100 times earnings back in 2000. we're not going to get to 100. i think we can get to a much higher number. much i don't want to put a specific number out there, but i think it can be much higher. and this spectacular bursting of the bubble, i think it's important that that is a cautionary tale.

we if i'm correct, that the market is going to get euphoric, like beyond what we're experiencing today when it's across the market, naturally there has to be some sort of a correction. the great part is this after euphoria comes long term compounding. and that means those companies that have that drop 30, 40% drop can start to build after that. >> all right, gene, thanks very much for that analysis. we appreciate it. let's move on now to you, rebecca, because you've got some concerns about cryptos correlation with the magnificent seven. i was asked a couple of weeks ago what what do i think of what do i think of crypto and i don't whether you remember an old song, it was by a guy named edwin starr. it was war. what is it good for? insert crypto here. absolutely nothing. insert crypto here. i don't know what it's good for other than to be a speculative investment. >> well, as we all know, there's a lot under the umbrella term of crypto and some of them have

very tangible uses and some are more. >> speculative. nfts and dollar backed coins and so forth. >> i published a piece in john ellis's substack news items earlier this week about our crypto presidency. because i think under all the tariff talk and deregulation talk and doge, he he published an executive order in january saying we are going to be the crypto capital of the world, and we're going to do that with clear regulatory guidelines. we're going to do that with explicit government support. and so i'm not surprised that between the election in january, we had a huge run in crypto, including bitcoin. the caution i have gets back to something jean was just talking about, which is the possibility of a correction in mag seven and tech generally. at the end of the day, crypto is fintech. it's financial technology, right? that's all it is. and it tends to trade like leverage small cap fintech. so when technology stocks go up often not always but often crypto goes up. and what i found

is that if you go back a decade, every time the nasdaq fell more than 5% in a month, bitcoin fell more often than not the majority of the time by 5% on the month or more. gold, just for context, was up. >> so don't go into crypto thinking it is a non-correlated asset to technology shares or to or to risk assets. >> not yet. that could change in the future, but at least until this point, it has not provided you diversification. it has provided you amazing returns if you bought and hold if you bought in 2013 and still have it today. >> wish i. >> had risk adjusted. even with the volatility, you're better than the s&p 500 or nasdaq. the problem is that most people haven't bought and hold. there was a great study. >> have most people made or lost money. >> so this is the big point. and you think well how do i even answer that question? the bank for international settlements, which is sort of the central bank for central banks in switzerland, did a big global study and they looked at how

many people made and lost money and what they estimate. and it's an estimate, but it is a good deep study globally, not just the us. between roughly 73 and 81% of people who bought crypto over that decade lost. so is. >> that. >> because they're trend followers? in other words, they buy when the thing is going up and then the big money gets out. >> that's exactly right. so what what they also found is that the vast majority of people trading in crypto today, again, this could change have been young white men, usually under the age of 35. and they tend to trend follow. and so they're buying after bitcoin goes up. and then the big whales the huge owners sell and they get caught in the wash. >> so the center point. >> yeah. so when you look at these i agree with you on on meme coins. but when you look at bitcoin only 21 million will ever be mined. before the election it was 62,000 traded up to 109,000. in the last five years. it's up 880%. gold is up 84%. nvidia is up 8,800%. there

is the hodl the hodlers. right. you have to. >> you have to. >> buy and you have to hold. do you think crypto do you think bitcoin specifically is going to be at 10,000,013 million? like michael saylor says 250,000 or 1 million. we have a now an administration where rebecca started that is going to regulate. it is going to it's not going to be an enforcement strategy. it's a regulatory strategy. >> growth strategy. >> with the growth strategy, banks are going to start getting into a corporate balance. sheets are going to start getting into a central bank is going to start to own it. 21 million maximum mined. i think you can it can be volatile. be careful. but the upward momentum is there. >> all right. we're going to take a quick break. coming up a place your bets. casino and sports betting stocks hitting the jackpot today. what's fueling that trade. should you keep rolling the dice on these names. plus shares of roku surging the results that had investors streaming in and how

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com. >> welcome back to fast. money everybody. we've got a news

alert on some 13 f filings leslie picker has the details. hi, leslie. >> hey, tyler. yeah, there was a lot to unpack in this berkshire hathaway report, notably holding on to its apple position during the fourth quarter, which stood at $75 billion as of the end of 2024. now, this is noteworthy because berkshire had slashed its stake by about two thirds over the course of the first nine months of the year. so perhaps we've seen at least the apple bulls would hope we've seen at least a temporary pause in those sales. warren buffett's firm continuing, though, to sell down bank of america after going below that 10% threshold during q4. that's the level, if you recall, by which berkshire no longer needed to continue disclosing each sale. so we're learning more now about where that stake stood as of the end of q4. during the fourth quarter, warren buffett's firm also pared back 15%, or it pared back 15% of the b of a stake to hold roughly $29.9 billion. in. the firm also sold, down 74% of

its stake in citigroup to hold about $1 billion worth of that name, and it sold 18% of capital one to hold about 1.3 billion of that name. at year end. you can see those shares down a little bit in after hours trading, but they did make a move on this filing revelation. in terms of other positions, other holdings during the quarter, berkshire took a new stake in constellation brands that was worth more than $1 billion, and it bumped up its exposure to domino's by 87%. both of those consumer names getting a boost in after hours trading after berkshire showed some love to each of those, notably constellation up about 7% in after hours on that new stake there. tyler. >> take your money out of the bank and go to domino's. all right. thanks, leslie. >> appreciate it. >> meanwhile, yeah, he could buy a lot of pizza, by the way. meanwhile, casino stocks hitting the jackpot this week, draftkings leading the pack soaring more than 26% since monday. mgm up 15%. caesars wynn

also getting in on the action and also in on the action. contessa brewer what's driving the gains? >> i mean, it was a lot of fun to watch all of this draftkings stock, as you said, up 15% on the day, 26% this week. on the earnings call this morning, ceo jason robins painted a really pretty picture of 2025, which kicks off with some astonishing numbers from the super bowl. sunday, $436 million wagered that set a record for new daily sportsbook handle the amount wagered, and it led to the highest gross gaming revenue in company history. and that did not factor into the company's guidance, which it raised. wynn resorts is on fire. it's up 10%, fueled by promising business in macau for the chinese new year and performance in las vegas against some tough comps and a notable increase in slot play, which, by the way, we heard from mgm as well in its earnings this week, they announced record slot play and wins. that stock went up 15% this week on what was a

decent report. but the most promising bit of news was that december was by far the best month ever for booking group big business, and that pushes forward and helped lift caesars too, which was up 11% this week. but really these earnings reports were rather meh. you know, on valuation terms, though, here's where investors may be paying attention. the macau casinos look like a good deal. las vegas sands comes in at 16.8, meaning on a forward price to earnings basis, you get the most bang for your buck investing here. mgm 17 wynn and melco 19. the other stocks are higher flutter, caesars, draftkings. they've all seen runs up recently. and so, you know maybe are not the best value in terms of being on sale. >> flutter is fanduel. that's right fanduel. >> and fanduel is the market share leader in the united states and fueling most of flutter's growth. but flutter still seeing growth internationally. and they have that international.

>> ultimately is it going to be the sports betting that that fuels these stocks or is it or is it going to be casino gaming? >> i'm glad you. >> on your handheld. >> guess what? the eye gaming is estimated to be seven times bigger than sports betting. and on the draftkings call today, jason robbins said it's all but inevitable that legalization will expand because states are lookingore. tax revenue, of course. and illegal gambling is popping up and they're not getting any tax revenue from that. >> right. who do you have in the game, eagles or chiefs. >> you know what? i was a fair. >> i didn't. >> watch it yet. she recorded it. >> do not. spoil it. >> for her. i didn't gamble on it. i didn't gamble on it because i usually lose my sports bets and i hate losing. >> yeah. all right. thanks very much, contessa. julia, let's turn to you and get your thoughts on any of these stocks. but why don't we start with draftkings if you've got an opinion? >> yeah, i think it's a really fascinating quarter. you know, they reiterated their guidance for $850 million of free cash flow. it's really hard to argue

with that. the company is finally finding its way to real gaap profitability. and i think that makes a difference to certain investors having this turn into more of an oligopoly kind of market. and it's going to make this much more stable. and i think a more investable class for, you know, people like me who have been a little bit concerned. i agree, though, that the regulatory landscape is actually pretty critical to the story, as more and more states recognize that this is an opportunity for tax revenue, they're going to want to coalesce around a few players. they're not going to want to issue widespread licenses. and i think that only benefits the larger players like draftkings. >> mike, you had eagles -32. what are you seeing in wynn? >> well, wynn saw more than ten times its average daily call volume today. and you know, the top line has been a little bit stagnant. but if they can at least get back to 3 or 4% top line. and some of the other stuff that we've been hearing, you know, remains intact, then, you know, a 10% pop, you know, basically you're only

incorporating the good news that you've heard this week. and with respect to draftkings. i mean, if you take a look at what people are now figuring they're going to do for full year 2026, it's about 25 times that number. you can't really look at what has happened in the past because they weren't profitable. but when you think about the total size of the potential market and then you think, okay, you know, in two years time we could be trading at about 25 times that number. with explosive growth, it's easy to understand why that one also saw explosive options volume. we saw five times the average daily call volume. there over 200,000 contracts 20 million shares worth. >> all right, mike, thanks very much. there's a lot more fast to come. and here is what's coming up next. >> a streaming surge. shares of roku heading higher as results in guidance have investors tuning in. it's even outperforming one of its biggest rivals this year. how the streaming wars are stacking up in 2025. plus, treading lightly overseas. why rebecca patterson is urging caution when it comes to investing in europe, and how

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>> welcome back to fast money, everybody. roku topping the tape surging 14% following last night's earnings report. the stock. best day since november of 2023 after giving stronger than expected results and adding 4 million streaming households in the quarter, roku now up 33% so far this year, compared with a 19% gain for netflix those six weeks. those are pretty good years for a company. >> yeah, everything is always we're the microwave society. it's like the microwave market where you used to get you. >> used to take. >> you a month to get a certain amount of return. you get it in an hour. yeah, right. you could have a great day. bad day. yeah. or a horrendous close. right. so when you look at roku it's a platform. right. so they don't have that that content spend that netflix has. if you look at on a year basis netflix still blew them out of the water. but when you look at it on a year to date. roku is two x what netflix is. i think people definitely slept on the name on roku. i

think it's probably got a lot more potential going for it. >> yeah, well, it's certainly hot this week, mike. thoughts here? >> yeah, i mean, i'm kind of more of a fan of netflix. i think they own the space. i've often referred to the company as basically an unregulated utility that everybody's got to have. i mean, they've got the content side, which steve was just sort of alluding to that, you know, that's what netflix. >> really got to spend on that content. a lot. >> they do and take and take a look at what's been happening as a result. that was always the big knock on netflix, right? so everyone always said, oh, every single nickel that they, they take in, they spend it out on content. but that's not true anymore. i mean, we're looking at, you know, probably, you know, $1.3 billion in free cash flow growth between last year and this one and growing at least as fast through next year. they're generating free cash flow. now they're generating income. the big knock on netflix is just that. it's had such a stretch. it also looks like it's kind of, you know, had too far too fast as far as i'm concerned. but operationally, that's the one i prefer. >> all right, mike, thanks again. let's take a quick break

here. coming up, investing overseas. you may want to tread lightly in certain parts of the world. why rebecca is urging caution when it comes to markets across the pond in europe. her thoughts when fast returns. >> miss the moment of fast. catch us anytime on the go. follow the fast money podcast. we're back right after this. >> this is the emirates premium economy seat. >> and. >> economy. when it's time to start your business, it's time for shopify. design with easy to customize themes. sell everywhere people shop. and never miss a sale with the world's best converting checkout. see why millions of businesses sell with shopify. start your free trial today.

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so, what are you waiting for? come and say g'day. (♪♪) consignors get $100. extra terms apply. >> welcome back to fast money. president trump this afternoon reiterating plans to impose tariffs on imported automobiles starting in early april. that caps a week of full of tough talk on trade, but not a lot of concrete action. despite those threats, european markets are having a strong start to the year. germany's dax in fact trading at record highs. but rebecca, you're saying to tread lightly here in europe. in part, i guess because of tariff fears and what would have to go right for europe to get more of your money. >> yeah. i mean, i think the rally we've seen in europe and the outperformance, a big chunk of that is that we had extremely low valuations. no one owned it anymore. so it was ripe for recovery. but you needed a catalyst to get people more confident about growth. the fact that president trump hasn't launched immediately on to europe with tariffs just threatened a few things, but no

clear date on a lot of it. i think that was a relief. and that relief said, okay, maybe we're going to have better growth. >> so far, bark. >> worse than bite. but so far. >> and that's why i'm a little cautious because i think we are going to see more tariffs coming. i mean you're hearing officials in the us cabinet talk about europe's vat, its value added tax, which is 22% being unfair. you're hearing about the exchange rate. >> you're that's not just applied to american products. that's a that's a that's applied to products that are made in the eu. >> doesn't matter if they're attacking all of it. and so i think there's going to be a negotiation. but at the end of the day you will get tariffs on europe. the other things that could help them. china has a big policy meeting in march. and if we happen to get more stimulus, especially focused on the consumer in china, that could be something that helps europe because of the trade ties. and then finally resolution in ukraine. i think there's a lot of hope that we could have a peace dividend, that you don't have as much spending that has to go to the war. i'm questioning that. i mean, even if there is a resolution, europe

is going to be building its military. they're very afraid of russia and what russia could do next. and the other hope is that you get cheaper energy on the back of this, as it can flow out of russia. again, i think that's also a question. how much, how quickly at what price? it's a global market. so. >> julie, do you have any thoughts or reactions to what rebecca is arguing here? >> yeah i agree. i largely agree. i think part of it is really priced into those markets. it's so much more cheap. a lot of these very good quality stocks in europe are a lot cheaper, and it's just a reflection that the growth engines behind them are weaker. but i do think that there are interesting geopolitical dynamics that are still at play. right. who's going to be not that happy if the ukraine war goes away? it's china, right? because they've been a big beneficiary from an oil standpoint. and so i think there's a lot of complexity here that makes me want to say i'm going to pay more attention to the us market. it's more dynamic. and i think there's more opportunities. >> steve. >> yeah, i think the

conversation on tariffs. have has switched to canada, mexico to more of a reciprocal tax or tariff. and when you look at eu putting 10% on our cars and we're putting two and a half on their cars, the average person and the sophisticated business person says that doesn't make any sense. so i think when you change the conversation to reciprocal tax that's more easily digested for the market, and no one thinks that's outlandish. but to julie's point, we it was much chaos is going on in the states. this seems to be the market that most people want to trade in and understand. we can't understand the eu's marketplace right now. >> mike, final thoughts here. >> yeah, i mean, take a look at the msci german germany index. this thing has had no earnings growth for the last three years. that's a big part of the problem. they have demographic issues. electricity is three times as expensive in germany as it is here. that actually puts a bite into manufacturing. and

they are europe's manufacturing engine. so the struggles for germany affect anything out there. so i wouldn't be a buyer even though it is trading, you know, 5 or 6 turns cheaper than the s. the s&p is. >> all right. coming up earnings season rolls on with a number of big names on deck to report next week how options traders are setting up ahead of those results. when fast money returns in two minutes time. >> and. >> on $100,000 margin loan interactive brokers charges just 5.83%. do you know how much your broker charges? fidelity and

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whipsawed over the last several years. that one's implying a big move, about 14%. baba is implying a move of about 10%, which seems big. but then consider the stock's up about 50% in the last month or so. toll brothers implying a move of about 6%. walmart implying 5%, which is actually pretty big for a company that doesn't usually move that much on earnings. oxy's implying a move of about 4%. and the new ticker is x, y, z. that's that's block, which used to be ticker skew x. y z was always our favorite sort of generic ticker when we were saying buy x, y, z stock. but you can't do that anymore because now you're talking about block. i think you could actually get long. this one, it looks a little bit weak technically, but the fundamentals i kind of like it. i think you can make sort of a hedged upside bet by buying the june 87th and one half calls and sell the march 98th against it. you're going to spend about six bucks a contract that's the equivalent of $6 a share. to make your bullish bet, you're going to try to capitalize on the fact that the nearer dated volatility is going to come in

after they report earnings. we call that a vol crush. and that sort of acts as a tailwind to buy that longer dated upside. >> how long do i stay in this trade? how long before i know what to do. >> well so it's interesting of course, because right after earnings you're going to get that vol crush effect. so those near dated march options are going to have some significant decay. you could probably ride those until they have about 20 days till expiration or so and make your adjustments at that point. >> steve, thoughts on this or on the earnings that we're going to see next week? yeah, i mean, these other companies. >> mike did a masterful job mapping it out. and walmart, when you look at that chart that looks like the stairway to heaven. when you when you when you look at something like that, when you look at toll brothers, i'm fascinated. you were actually the first one who, who brought this up. the term that people own a mortgage. they don't own a home. 73% of u.s. households or us mortgages have a mortgage rate under 5%, right? 90% of us, over 90% have a 30 year fixed rate. so if you start

to think about that bigger number, when you look at toll brothers, if people aren't moving or people are staying in their house until the mortgage rates drop, that could be a little hairy for all of these home builders. so it'll be interesting to see what comments toll has to say. >> julie, let's get you into the conversation. what are you thinking about? >> yeah, i'm interested too in the homebuilders. part of it is, you know, owning a company that serves them. but i think what's important to note is that if interest rates continue to stay where they are, people are staying put and inventory remains very tight. so i think the homebuilders will continue to be beneficiaries of that. they have figured out how to do buy downs, interest rate buy downs. and i think that benefits them longer term. you know, the other company that i'm really paying attention to is obviously walmart, not necessarily as an investor, but i would really like a better sense of how is the us consumer doing. where are they shopping the store. and walmart's ideal because their level of execution is so much higher right now than any of their peers. >> all right. coming up, folks. thanks, julie. coming up cnbc sport is out with its inaugural rankings of the nba's most

valuable franchises. and some of your favorite teams are topping the list. the details on the slam dunk valuations, how much they've gone up in just the past few years. and fast money returns to. >> options action is sponsored >> options action is sponsored by robinhood (auctioneer) let's start the bidding at 5 million dollars. thank you, sir. (man) these people of privilege... hoarding the financial advantages for far too long. (auctioneer) 7.5 at the back. (man) look at them — unaware that robinhood gold members now enjoy the vip treatment — a 3% ira match on retirement contributions. (auctioneer) 11 million sir. (man) once they discover their privileges are no longer exclusive... their fragile reality will plunge into disarray. ♪

above and things below the. >> surface, those. >> who navigate. >> risk by meeting every turn. >> with a heightened. >> awareness of what's possible. constant assessment. >> determine the. >> best position. catch the >> best position. catch the perfec [sfx: wind, rain and rolling thunder] with the vision to see what's possible and the grit to make it happen, morgan stanley can help create the future only you can see. [crowd cheers] [music out] at ubs. >> we. >> match your ambition with tailored. advice to craft a unique outcome for you. >> advice is our craft. >> next. >> if the market is becoming more skeptical about these types of massive ai investments and even punishing companies that commit to that type of spending,

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on us. sample pack. generics now. >> only $1. >> per tablet at 30. >> welcome back, everybody. >> to fast money. nba all star weekend tips off in san francisco today. and as the big event gets underway, cnbc sport is out with its inaugural rankings of the nba's most valuable franchises at number one. san francisco's golden state warriors worth an eye popping 9.4 billion. that's nearly 2 billion more than the than the franchise was sold for when its current owners, joe lacob and peter guber, paid 450 million for that company. for that team back in 2010, nearly $2 billion more than the new york knicks, who come in at second in second place. the lakers are third, as you see there, at 7 billion. the bulls are fourth. and maybe surprisingly, maybe we shouldn't be surprised. the houston rockets have come back. they've

got a pretty good team now at $5.7 billion. tilman fertitta doing nicely there. cnbc sports reporter mike ozanian is the man behind the rankings, and he joins us now. i was surprised that the golden state warriors outvalue the knicks and the lakers. well, you. >> have to look at their arena, tyler. it's really about arena economics. they have a new building. they put the new building together in the middle of that championship run steph curry. they do about twice as much sponsorship revenue than the next closest team in the nba. their overall revenue is $200 million more than the next closest nba team. >> and are they unusual in in being the owners of the of the arena? don't other teams own their arena? >> some do. but if you control the arena's economics, that's key. you mentioned the houston rockets. great example. they don't own the building, but they control the economics. so they get all the revenue from non nba

events to things like concerts college sports. look at it this way. your median ebitda in the nba is somewhere between 30 and $40 million for basketball only. when you add in those other events, it gets closer to $50,000,060 million. if you control the economics, on the other hand, the pistons excuse me, they do not control the economics. they're a renter. the hockey team controls the economics. the pistons are at or near the bottom of our list in value. >> so let's talk about how important the new tv deal is to these valuations. it is a massive, massive deal for a sport that is not right now. if i'm not correct, correct me is not drawing the kind of ratings that it did a few years ago. >> no, you're absolutely correct on that. look at it this way. this new deal starting next season is going to average $6.9 billion a year versus 2.7 billion for the current. >> per team. >> per league, per year. but that's for the entire league for

the 30 teams. but it gets divided equally among every team. so it doesn't matter if you're going to the finals or you're losing every game. so even the memphis grizzlies do the least most valuable team on our list. if you go back and look what pa paid for it in 2012, 377 million. now, based on our current valuation, a little over 3 billion. that's a 19% annualized gain. >> who would like to jump in here? >> yeah. so when we talk about netflix it's always about live sports. it's about live events. and where do you think it goes from here. because as tyler said, this is probably where you have the highest. ceiling for a lot of these media deals. and with more and more streaming venues and more outlets where people can watch. it seems like there's a new new group. i know, you know, you think about the mlb gets clunky when you watch that on prime, but when you look at just the nba, where. >> where's the ceiling.

>> on some. >> of this? >> well, we mentioned the national new media deal. amazon prime is huge all over that to your point about streaming. and that's where it is going. it's going towards streaming. i'm old school. i generally like to watch, you know, on the big screen on, you know, my cable tv. the younger folks, which the nba wants to make sure it keeps capturing. that's why they're moving towards streaming. i think you're going to see more games put on streaming as it goes forward, just like the nfl has. you know they had their package. they did it amazon prime. but slowly but surely they've added a few more. >> let's get a quick thought here. there's some news about the new york giants perhaps selling hiving off a portion to a private equity company. >> yeah, it makes perfect sense, because what you have with the giants, just like the chicago bears too, you have these teams that have been in the family for generations. you probably have a lot of family members that you may want to start. >> not very. >> good, by the way, for the last generation. >> yeah. well listen, again, the

nfl shares equally about 65% of its revenue. so it doesn't really matter if you're good or not. you're going to earn a lot more money. >> is one of the mantras there as we look at the new york giants. all right, mike, thanks very much. appreciate it. all righty. for more on cnbc sports nba valuations go to cnbc.com. up next your final trades. we'll up next nice to meet ya.s. we'll be right back. my name is david. i've been a pharmacist for 44 years and i'm from flowery branch, georgia. when i have customers come in, i recommend prevagen. number one, because it's effective. does not require a prescription. and i've been taking it quite a while myself and i know it works. and i love it when the customers come back in and tell me, "david, that really works so good for me." makes my day. prevagen. for your brain. at ameriprise financial we know our clients are so much more than clients. they're go-getters and game-changers, legacy-leavers and visionaries,

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maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic. >> next. >> if the market is becoming more skeptical about these types of massive ai investments, and even punishing companies that commit to that type of spending, then maybe the hyperscalers will start dialing back their hardware investments. >> mad money next cnbc. >> time for the final trade. let's go around the horn quickly, julie, what's your pick? >> west had a tough quarter, but i think this could be a good entry point on a quality name. >> west pharma. how about you, mike? what do you got? >> yeah, not for a trade with a long term hold. bitcoin. >> bitcoin. wow. how about you

rebecca. >> i'm going to take the other side of that. i like gld gold for diversifier. and happy valentine's day to my mom betty. >> all right steve your thoughts. >> so nice tyler. thank you so much for being here to be with you all. to me, it's a trade that hasn't gone so well, but i'm. >> still in it. >> altimmune. all right, folks, thanks so much for watching fast money. mad money starts right now. >> my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to cramerica. other to make friends i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain, but to educate and teach you. so call me at one 807 43 cnbc or tweet me jimcramer. whenever you're listening to anyone's investing advice you need to consider the source. and ideally you want to know where that person is coming from. that's why tonight i'm going to tell you e