stay. in an office. janet yellen music. oh yeah. la la la la la la la la la la la la. >> and welcome to power lunch. could the world see a. >> peace deal in ukraine sooner than later? the u.s. and russia talking today. markets are moving. we'll talk more about what. could happen with any deal. >> plus. >> you've seen the stories on social media, but it's concern about layoffs in washington, d.c, really hitting their housing market. >> we're going to show. >> you data. >> and talk to a real insider. >> and what. >> microsoft has to say about ai and. >> whether elon musk. >> can.

>> really compete in the world's hottest and most competitive playground. kelly. >> just talking about it, brian. thanks. let's first get a check on the markets as stocks have faded from this morng's highs. the s&p was within a few points of a record high. it's now down at just a couple of points. the nasdaq hit a two month high above 20,000. briefly. it's now down a third of 1%. and keep an eye on shares of meta, which inevitably have to be lower someday. and they're down 3.5%. is it because of you wonder they are breaking their 20 day win streak potentially. again, a 3.5% drop. but two hot stocks continue their rallies today. intel is one of them, up another 10% on these reports of a potential breakup. supermicro is up 13% and up more than 90% so far in february. we're also seeing some selling across the staples space. conagra. general mills, smucker hitting 52 week lows. strong dollar has been a headwind there. >> the meta story is a big one. all right. meantime, some big global macro headlines to kick off the hour. the u.s. and russia agreeing to appoint diplomats to try to work

together to find a solution to russia's invasion and war in ukraine. it is the first real talk between the u.s. and russia in more than two years. russian representatives led by sergey lavrov are in riyadh, saudi arabia, right now. they are speaking marco rubio and other high level american diplomats. it is critical to note, as we did in the exchange before this, that ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy is not in attendance and has expressly said that he would not accept any outcome from these talks because his nation did not take part. in fact, zelenskyy postponing his scheduled trip to riyadh on wednesday. that said, the u.s. and russia are talking and the hope is that ukraine also comes to the table. as we highlighted last hour, any peace deal or end of the fighting could have an impact on stock markets, both here and in europe. many european markets have been rallying on this and of course, other things like hopes for lower borrowing costs, lower energy costs, whatever it

may be. things to watch include crude oil, natural gas, both here and in europe. lng stocks here. iron ore. steel, coal and wheat. those are some of the commodities and energy sources to watch if and when any deal does occur. >> and as we were talking about, u.s. exceptionalism had reached a peak at the end of 2024. the stock market was at all time highs in terms of global market cap. now we're seeing a bit of a reversion. the best performing stock markets have been international, including europe. the stoxx 600 is up 10% year to date. and the idea is not only might corporates benefit from higher defense spending domestically, they're companies, as you pointed out, the steel users, the energy takers could benefit if energy prices do come down. >> and almost everything we just scrolled through here, you saw a pop there at the beginning of 2022 when we had that invasion. the other thing to urias, which are fertilizers, look at names like a cf industries and mosaic here in the united states. big urea producers. ukraine was one

of the big urea producers that got taken offline for the most part. again, a lot to do. a long way to go. we'll see what happens. so as we have pointed out, european stocks have been blowing past their american counterparts this year. it's only been a couple of weeks, but the european stoxx 600 has more than doubled our s&p 500 this year. in europe, remember their borrowing costs are about half of ours. so what does all this combined and more mean for your money? well, your next guest has some big time thoughts on all of it. let's bring in mike wilson. he is cio and chief u.s. equity strategist at morgan stanley. mike, good to see you. how much, if at all, are you and your team watching what happens in europe vis a vis how it might impact our equity markets and your clients money? >> yeah, i mean. >> i think there's i mean, obviously there's. >> a lot going on. i mean, the ending of the war would be, i think, tremendous positive tailwind. i think the markets getting in front of that primarily. there's also just,

you know, massive political change. in some ways, you know, the win. president trump and the. >> most recent. >> election almost puts pressure on other countries now to kind of bootstrap themselves. and i think, you know, we have a big german election coming up. and that's part of the story too, is that, you know. >> they might get. >> more active with. >> their own fiscal. >> policies because they kind of have to. and same thing for china. we've seen that market perform extremely well, kind of on the same on the same basis. but you also have. >> to remember, brian. >> that at the end of i mean, last year was just a tremendous year again for us stocks. >> and we ended. >> up, you know, pretty much on a high note in december was a little tougher, but we had a lot of good stuff happening in the second half of the year. and it may just be that simple, which is that the us markets just, you know, consolidating and taking a bit of a break here. there's some fundamental drivers that are maybe capping us here. 6100 was a level that we identified back in october. we hit that and we've just struggled with it for the last three months. that's not, you know, the end of the world. it's just that's the resistance level. we haven't been able to break through it. stock markets expensive in the

us. and what we've been focused on is just trying to make money under the surface, where i think the opportunity set has been tremendous. >> you know why i new international stocks are going to outperform, mike, because i had taken them out of all of my retirement portfolios, you know, because a couple of months ago i was like, i've had it with small caps. i've had it with international, you know, fool me once. shame on you. fool me 15 times. but maybe now is the 16th. >> yeah, it could be. i mean, look, every every dog has his day, as they say, but i mean, but the reality is, is the us market just got tired and we priced a lot of good news. and once again, i want to make this perfectly clear. like the, the, you know, under the surface there's been some, you know, huge winners in the last couple of months. and it's just and the mag seven has really underperformed. and i think that's what's weighing down the index. it's almost the opposite of last couple of years where the index did extremely well and then everything else did did terribly. and now we're seeing a little bit of a broadening out under the surface. and to me that's that's a better outcome. >> well, maybe it's a good and a bad thing. and you know, i talk

a lot, mike, obviously about energy. and people say, why do you talk so much about energy? well, energy is the i story, even if you don't care about energy per se, you might care about the stock market, which means you care about nvidia and microsoft and google and all that stuff they want to do, which is powering our stock market higher. all that has to literally come from some form of energy. how closely do you guys watch some of these subsidiary markets? you know, if we see a break, let's say nvidia comes out one day and said, well, we just don't know if there's the power to make all these data centers and thus maybe not sell all these blackwell chips. what's going to happen? >> yeah. >> and it's not just about i brian, as you know, i mean, we need energy for the economy, broadly speaking. and, you know, we've probably underinvested in in capacity in electricity and other forms of energy. so we've been on that power theme for quite a while. our analysts done a great job. and that's probably where we're more constructive at the margin than than perhaps even the eye directly. i mean, the you know, the ai story has been really about the enablers,

you know, the picks and shovels that's sort of fading now. and now it's about the application layer and then the power to kind of, you know, drive these new networks. >> what does that mean? the application layer. >> software effectively. so, you know, all of the all of. >> the app loving and you're not a single stock guy. but is that like why an app loving is up 500% recently? >> well sure. i mean and think about the money that has to move, right? so the money, you know, the large chunks of money were in the hyperscalers and, and some of the picks and shovels, and then it has to go into maybe, perhaps smaller names. and i think that's why you're seeing outsized moves. some of those are probably overdone. but at the end of the day, all of the value add generally in compute is done at the software level. ultimately, if you think about the internet itself, the long term value creation was in the applications, right? not in the infrastructure itself. the infrastructure is the highway, but then the value add is in the software. so we're moving into that phase of it. and then also the adopters, you know, the companies that are actually adopting some of this stuff and are are facile with with big

data sets. they've benefited from ai early on. and the market's smart. the market's been making that shift now for the better part of 4 to 6 months. >> where does that make you say leave us. i mean again the larger to me sort of i wouldn't call it an anxiety, but it's what what's the right allocation to us to international. what do you think about small caps? >> well, we've always been fairly balanced in terms of trying to, you know, not be too tied up in one particular particular market. look, we're still i mean, the us is still a great place to invest. i think, you know, because of the passive strategies and some of the indexation, it maybe got a little bit concentrated. one thing i'd like to point out to listeners, though, is, you know, it's the same thing overseas. we're seeing, you know, this high quality factor carry the day in every market. so if you look at germany, for example, it's even more concentrated than the s&p 500. okay. same thing in asia. so in other words, what the market's paying up for is the same thing it's paying up for in the us. it's paying up for high quality growth. high quality is working because interest rates are still fairly high globally. there's not a lot

of organic growth yet. maybe that's going to pick up here as we go into 2025 and 26. and so the market's paying up for high quality stocks. bonds are not uninvestable but people have shunned bonds and that's what they're paying up for. and so what's happened is the market is just saying, hey, we kind of did that in the us. now we're looking for some of these high quality names outside the us. we have some other catalysts, for example, ending the war potentially in ukraine and between ukraine and russia. we have, you know, some political change going on in countries like germany and others. so there, you know, markets are always looking for the next catalyst. >> and that's is that why germany and we've talked about how bad their fundamental economy is for years and their stock market. i know it's only been a couple of months okay. don't at me folks. but they've doubled our market in the last three months. is it because it's we always say, tina, there is no alternative. i'm trying to think of t t i t too cheap to ignore. >> well, i mean, and it hasn't done much for the last, you know, ten years. basically, it's

flat up until recently, for ten years. and now everything else is expensive. so yeah, i mean, market moves where it thinks the opportunity is going to be better in six months time. so there are some catalysts in front of us. i mentioned to the potential ending of the war election changeover and then the pressure. once again, i wouldn't understate the pressure that the elections are now putting on other countries to do things for themselves. right? i mean, that kind of gets the ball moving. so that's what the markets are expecting. that's what it's hopeful for. is it maybe getting a little far ahead of itself potentially. but markets do that. markets will get ahead of themselves and we'll have to see how this plays out. but there is a there is a reason for why it's happening. >> yeah. and perhaps important to point out this is not the euro crisis. you know this is not stocks plunging bond yields breaking out. when people say, you know trump is going to cause the breakup of europe, that is not what markets are telling you. they're telling you the opposite. they're telling you that europe looks stronger to them now than it has. look at that stock chart in ten years. >> what i would say is it's telling us that the potential is

better going forward because, you know, let's let's face it, the last ten years, when you talk to people about europe, they roll their eyes and they say, you know, call me later, i lose my number. and so now people are basically saying, hey, maybe there is something going on here. we haven't been looking there, by the way, remember, the best analyst sometimes is price, right? when price starts going up, people get excited. so all those factors are playing into this. and the fact that the, you know, the leadership names in the us market have sort of flattened out is giving people a reason to look to right when those names are going up every week, there's no reason to look around. and so there's just a lot of things that have come together here in a short period of time. and that's what markets do. they're going to they're going to move to where the opportunity, where they think the opportunity is going to be the best for the next 3 to 6 months. >> indeed. mike, thanks so much. appreciate you joining us today, mike wilson of morgan stanley. take a quick break after that. doge is taking dc by storm as musk and the team trim the federal fat jobless claims are

spiking. but what does it mean for the d.c. housing market? more next. >> on the bond report is brought >> on the bond report is brought to you by pimco, a business. it's not a nine-to-five proposition. it's all day and into the night. it's all the things that keep this world turning. it's the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. trust. hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. powering more businesses than anyone. powering possibilities.

(vo) what does it mean to be rich? maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic. >> sometimes investing can feel so all over the place. that's why public.com created one place for it all. one place where you can invest in almost everything like stocks, options, bonds, and crypto. you can even lock in a 6% or higher yield because it's the one place where you can build your portfolio the way you want. all your investing in one want. all your investing in one place. get up pull fast, not hard. don't be afraid of the birds they're just as scared of you. can i ask you about some financial stuff? you know i hate giving out advice. talk to a financial professional today. feel comfortable about tomorrow. massmutual.

the way i approach work post fatherhood, feel comfortable has really trying to understand the generation that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families like my own. in the average household, there are dozens of connected devices. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways.

for all the details. >> physicians mutual. physicians mutual. >> well, the alarm is officially being sounded in parts of the american new housing market. new data shows that homebuilder sentiment dropped to a five month low. and though some of the concern is about tariffs, which we all know may never happen, right, there's been a pause. we don't know what's going to happen. there is also concern over borrowing costs which refused to go down. there's a lot more as well. let's talk about it all. we're going to go national and then

we're going to go to the d.c. area. we'll start diana olick nationally. how are things looking? >> well. >> we. >> got to read this. >> morning, brian, on. >> homebuilder sentiment. >> and it took. >> a very hard. >> hit in february. >> and the primary concern. is tariffs. the nahb sentiment index dropped a much wider than expected five points to 42. that's the lowest level in five months. anything below 50 is considered negative, but sentiment. >> had been. >> rising steadily since september, even though mortgage rates began rising again in january. of the index is three components. current sales conditions fell four points to 46. sales expectations in the next six months, they dropped a whopping 13 points into negative territory to 46, and buyer traffic dropped three points to 29. and that future sales component that's the lowest since december of 2023, nahb chairman carl harris said in the release. while builders hold out hope for pro development policies, particularly for regulatory reform, policy uncertainty and cost factors

created a reset for 2025 expectations in the most recent hmie. the builders noted 32% of appliances and 30% of softwood lumber come from international trade. and while the canadian and mexican tariffs were paused, builders are still worried chinese are in place. that's where your appliances come from. in addition, the share of builders lowering prices, it dropped to 26% in february. that's the lowest share since last may. other sales incentives also fell. you would think they would go up, but no. this may be because incentives are becoming less effective at attracting buyers, since high prices and high rates have reduced the pool of buyers for whom these benefits actually move the needle. brian. >> all right. diana. thanks. and stick around, because jobless claims in the d.c. area are soaring as people look for that impact from the doge. job cuts for the week ending feb eighth, filings were up 36% from the week before and up 400% year on year. at the same time, home prices have seen a drop down almost 9% compared to 2024,

according to redfin. so let's ask a local real estate expert what's going on. joining us now is daniel hyder. he's executive vice president at ttr sotheby's and ceo and founder of hyder real estate. daniel, welcome. >> thank you for having me. >> what's it feel like in d.c. right now? and what are you seeing in the housing market? >> well, it's. >> very submarket dependent. i see. certainly. perhaps a bit of a moderation, which is usual for this this season. you know, winter months tend to bring on a slower pace to the market, but there's certainly isn't any seismic shift happening here. we see consumer confidence very, very high in the upper bracket markets. and while you know, these doge cuts certainly make headlines, the facts are is that in terms of levels of inventory, we're about the same that we were this time last year. >> but you see you've seen somewhat of a slowing which you said is a bit a little bit

unusual for this time of year. i also thought it was interesting. you said there are other factors that are that are kind of tailwinds for the market, primarily return to work. how does that factor in? >> well. >> you know, there's an opportunity for folks that need to be back in office five days a week to be closer to those work centers. the commute is becoming more of a central point in the decision making factor for a lot of families and individuals. who knows how that's going to affect our suburban markets here in the capital region. but, you know, savvy folks see the opportunities that exist in times like now. >> let's kelly and i both went to high school and college in virginia. we have a lot of friends in d.c. my brother in law is a realtor in maryland, so we know what's going on. let me ask this. i know doge and the cost cuts are getting all the attention, daniel. but also, if i look at falls church, virginia, or fairfax, virginia, or silver spring, maryland, three bedroom, two bath homes

are like $900,000 now. it's been the hottest economy in america for 30 years. is there a part of you, even as a realtor and you make your living off optimism, i get it that just says man things. maybe they just got a little too expensive for the average family with interest rates at, you know, 7%, 900 grand for a three bedroom, two and a half bath ranch. sure. look. >> things are definitely cooling off. and there's no doubt that the past few years have been extraordinary for that specific subset that you mentioned. and in the suburban markets, you know, but but look, interest rates are 7%. folks are being a little bit more cautious. and look, i see this as a regularity, not necessarily a total softening. there is still a very big need for housing in washington. inventory has been

historically tight. and what we're seeing, you know, and this remains to be seen, but what we're seeing is a little bit more inventory being introduced to the market, and who knows how that's going to play out in the next couple of months. but there's an opportunity for buyers that want to toss their hat in the ring right now. >> daniel, is that because you don't see enough changing to like the big picture long run? because if you say that, then it sounds like all of doj's work is for nothing. >> look, you know. >> washington, d.c. is a seat of power for our federal government and all of the ancillary companies that support it. you know, while these cuts are significant, they impact people. certainly in my life. my cousin recently lost her job. you know, this is very real. you know, it doesn't seismically shift this area. there is a lot of stability here. washington continues to be a very, you know, undervalued market. and folks want to make it their home. >> well, i do know our colleague who lives in dc, diana, you've been listening. i, i was in the

office two weeks ago. i stood next to you for two days. i know you got a lot to say about this topic. >> yes, i do, brian. look, i've been in d.c. reporting on housing for over 20 years, so that's several different administrations. and everybody thinks that the housing market is going to be impacted dramatically whenever a new party comes in, whenever a new president comes in. and what we're seeing now definitely is a factor that's happening nationwide is that there's still very low supply. and we're seeing that also in the d.c. area. the one difference that i'm hearing from a buyer's agent here on capitol hill is that they're seeing extreme demand close in to capitol hill from both republicans and democrats who want to get in on this very hot political arena. so you're seeing bidding wars, you're seeing prices go up and you're seeing bidding wars of over $100,000 for homes that need $400,000 worth of work. that's on capitol hill. but in the rest of the area, remember that when supply is as low as it is, you're going to see people fall out of the market. you still have that mortgage rate lock in effect, and you also have this uncertainty that's going on in the market. specifically, we're

hearing anecdotally about people who perhaps were going to move, but they work at nih, which is right in maryland, and they don't want to move because they're concerned about their jobs. or you hear about people who were moving to d.c. because of federal jobs, and those federal jobs no longer exist, so they're no longer looking for a home. so you are seeing some very specific shifts, but it's not an overall oh my god, the sky is falling even though there have been. and i will just note this some false posts on social media claiming that supply of homes for sale in d.c. has jumped 1,000%, which it has. absolutely not. >> and that's diana. that's why we're so that's why we're doing this segment. kelly and i are both incredibly boring people, and all weekend long we did literally we did nothing except look at this story. i'm not joking. we had to look at the emails that went around. >> there was no skiing. >> there was no spent. >> the weekend fact checking them. >> yeah. and we actually did some reporting. diana it's crazy. and daniel, i think you hit it. okay. diana lives there. she knows more than we do. but, daniel, you said commuting.

okay, let's be clear. and i'm old. okay? when i was your age, vienna was like the end of dc. like, if you lived in vienna, you might as well live in the sticks and have a farm. okay. i went to high school in town called winchester, which nobody had ever heard about, which is now a suburb of dc. there's a fema backup headquarters people are commuting in. i think what's happened is people have realized if they're going to go back to the office, the commuting sucks. >> that's right. >> it impacts their, their, their lives. and, you know, we're in the business of, you know, helping people live their lives when they're choosing shelter and housing. and look, if you if you've got to be back downtown or back to your, your office, you want to be close to it. and, and so it remains to be seen how it's totally going to be impacted. i know some companies are holding on to, you know, a more sort of liberal work from home policy, but it remains to be seen. i mean, the

market is so segmented, and the performance of the high end market versus the sort of, you know, mid-tier market, they're very, very different right now. and so you can, you know, data is meant to be skewed and looked at in all of these different ways. but i totally agree with diana. there is a lot of fodder out there, especially over the weekend. my phone blew up with text messages about, you know, all of this surplus of inventory that hit the market. and, you know. >> it's not true. it's just not true. it's not true. >> it's not true at all. >> it's not true, daniel. we're going to leave it there. diana, i love it. we actually looked at facts. it's sometimes when you do that, it's amazing what can happen. facts. right. diana? look. she's nodding. >> she's like i told you, diana. >> thank you. >> all right. so whenever we talk about specific cities or metro areas on this show, we have the unique ability to look at how they are doing in the stock market. this is information nobody else has, not even other cnbc shows. it's called the power city index and it is named after this show's

been named that way for ten years. it's the 12 biggest market cap companies in 38 different city and metro areas around america. let's quickly check the d.c. metro market. this is virginia, maryland and d.c. and it's real estate may be going fine. dc stock market not so much down on a yearly basis. kelly. some of the five big decliners in the last three months, you got a lot of defense companies strategy, which is formerly known as micro strategy. that is also down a lot of defense names. as you might imagine in the power city index for dc not having a great three months, but that is not real estate, right. >> and boeing is on an upswing, but after a pretty tough stretch. so there are some headwinds there as they as they admitted coming up, gold prices still climbing. goldman boosted its year end target. how can you make money on this trade market navigator is next.

>> nothing stands still. not technology, not the market and not franklin templeton. we've been a firm in motion for over 75 years, always innovating. today we're a leader in public and private markets, digital assets and custom tax management, empowering advisors with solutions to build the portfolios of the future. today, franklin templeton your trusted partner for what's ahead. >> running out of money in retirement. it's not an option. >> that's why more. stock investors. >> are now learning to trade options to boost. >> their returns. >> look at the return of this option trade versus a stock trade on the same security they can't even compare after. years on tv. >> as the go. >> to options experts, we wrote. >> our new. >> book to. >> teach stock investors how to. >> successfully trade options. get your free copy today at. it's not an option.com that's. >> it's not an. option. dot com.

>> is cialis daily better than viagra. does it last longer. than viagra. our sample packs available get started with a 30 day sample pack. generics now only $1 per tablet at wrexham.com. >> chronic sleep disorder affects an estimated 70 million americans. now a texas based nasdaq company called stock symbol xxl has developed a groundbreaking solution to address this multi-billion dollar sleep problem. next, lens neurostimulation technology could solve america's chronic insomnia problem, and that would be worth a fortune. sometimes small companies disrupt an entire industry. next, stock symbol and excel. >> when wellness has you looking. >> unwell. >> when water just isn't enough. >> you enter. >> liquid iv sugar free formula with true to fruit flavor and

zero artificial sweeteners. here's the thing it's not. >> about looking. >> like you've got it all together. >> it's about feeling like. >> you do. make our new sugar free your everyday sidekick. own your ritual your way with liquid i.v. >> get vested. join the club. >> one of the key benefits for me is knowing where jim is going to buy or sell before he does it. >> join the club. new member. save with a special offer for a limited time at cnbc.com. terms and restrictions apply. >> all right. before we navigate these markets here how things are looking right now we are down a little bit. the dow is down 192 points. that was a lot of points ten years ago. it's not anymore. down 4/10 of 1% i

think the big market story is meta 20 day run probably going to come to an end. it's down almost 4%. it's the greatest big cap stock run in the history of the modern stock market. and yet that's a lot of tv hyperbole. anyway, let's navigate dom chu first off how we navigate. am i wrong about that? could we say that meta 20 day run is epic? >> i would i in my mind, covering the markets that. >> i brain. >> and trading the markets before that on my career on wall street. i think a 20 session run like meta has had would would stand out to me, right? i wouldn't say historic because i don't have those numbers in my head. >> it doesn't need fact checking. >> but to see a stock that's a mega cap go up for 20 days in a row, it's not the same as going to a blackjack table and saying, hey, i won 20 hands in a row, but it's kind of you get that feeling, right? it's a big winning streak. >> i like you. >> it's a big winning streak. all right. anyway, let's talk about the gold prices right now because gold is up just about 50% in the last 12 months, a

pretty good run of itself. political uncertainty has made it one of those safe havens of choice. one futures trader, though, thinks it will go even higher still and is playing the commodity outright through the futures market. so joining us now is the killer, jeff kilburg, founder and ceo of financial. he's also, of course, a cnbc contributor, a frequent guest on this program. >> and a nice guy despite the. >> nickname nice guy and a notre dame football alum. so let's talk a little bit about gold prices and those gold helmets. how much can gold go higher? jeff, in your mind? >> well. >> dom gold certainly is near. >> and dear to my heart. >> but i think it has the. >> ability to vault over 3000. that's my short. >> term target. but there's three inputs, dom. >> you know, first being. >> inflation. >> it seems like no. >> other. >> market has really been concerned. the stock market certainly wasn't bothered by the inflationary data that was hotter than expected last week. but gold was we're seeing a $50 range today. yes, it's at the higher end of the range. but there's also a component of the us dollar. think about the dollar, dom. it's been higher ever since election day. i know

it's backed off a little bit off of 110, but we've seen gold move higher in the face of a stronger us dollar. that's impressive. and lastly i don't want to start the rumor mill. but we are talking all week and we heard buzz. are we short some gold bullion at fort knox? there's supposed to be 143 million troy ounces at fort knox. we will see. but there's a bid in gold. i think that's why it's going up above 3000. >> so why? i mean, so if you play the futures market and you target the way that you have, this particular market is a leveraged market. so it's not a dollar for dollar return, how exactly then do you risk manage these situations. and why are your stops so tight and your profit levels so tight in this. >> so it's funny i thought these stops were kind of wide. it all depends on your perspective. right. but i think if you look at the valuations. so right now this april futures contract i bought it at 2930 this morning. it's up towards the highs right now. it's actually trading on the high. but if you think about every dollar move in this futures contract is going to be $100 plus or minus. so if the

gold futures move $10 that's a $1,000 swing. so i have a stop down just in the event we see some tariff conversation continue to dissipate and we move back under because it's been sideways for about the last month, kind of attached to 2900. but i think we get a vault above here. i think we just have one last leg here, but i do only have a $70 move here, dom, because pigs get fat. hogs get slaughtered when you trade futures. >> all right. and then one more point here as we talk about the gold trade itself. fundamentally speaking, is there a reason why you think there could be potential downside? what exactly would then trigger what you think would be a move lower in those prices, given the fact that we have everything going with tariffs and trade and the market's at record highs and everything else. >> so i think what triggers the downside if we see the central bank buying dissipate last three consecutive years don we've seen we've seen china india, russia. they bought collectively over a thousand metric tons of gold. i think we're on pace again for

2025. in the event we see them walk away from buying, that's how it comes back off. but that type of buying, there's concerns about currency wars, trade, tariffs. that's why the central bankers are hoarding the gold right now. and that's why gold is going to continue its upward trajectory in my opinion. >> all right. >> jeff kilburg for the trade on gold. thank you very much. we'll see you soon. >> i think notre dame's going to need some gold if they're going to win the national championship, because the money keeps going up. so yes, maybe notre dame will have to get some of gillberg's gold so they can, you know, bring some players in. yeah. >> or any, any any other kind of gold. >> that's kind of where college. >> or use the gold helmets and actually use real gold. >> real gold. that'd be heavy though. >> thank you gents. you got it on deck. what one of the world's leading ai experts has to say about who is hot and what else microsoft may have up its sleeve. stay with us. we'll be right back.

>> market navigator is sponsored >> market navigator is sponsored by carl: what's up, carl nation! it's your #1 broker with the best full-service wealth management skills in the biz. tech asst: actually i'm seeing something from schwab. (uh-oh) producer : yeah, schwab lets you invest and trade on your own. and if you want they can even manage it for you. not to mention, schwab has a team of specialists for taxes, insurance, and estate planning. both producers: all with low fees. carl: we're experiencing technical difficulties... uh, carl... schwab! schwab. a modern approach to wealth management. we've been navigating change for 125 years, always looking forward, anticipating risks and trusted to manage over $1 trillion in assets worldwide. solving for the needs of investors today and tomorrow.

that's the power of nuveen. >> sales are. >> 6.1 million. >> the sweet sound. >> of success. >> that sounds like a. >> real business. >> i just want you to succeed. >> that's going. >> to take a lot of cheddar. >> we gotta d

you think those phone guys will ever figure out how to keep 5g home internet from slowing down during peak hours? their customers have to share a wireless signal with everyone in their area. oooh. you know, it's kinda like when you bring a really big cake for your birthday, and then there's only a little, tiny sliver left for the birthday girl. aw. well, wish her a happy birthday. happy birthday... -it's... ...to her. -no, it's me. have your cake and eat it, too. don't settle for t-mobile or verizon 5g home internet. get super fast xfinity internet you don't have to share. forty's going to be my year. amazing and is something that we get to use every day. >> welcome back to power lunch. >> i'm bertha coombs with your cnbc news update, a law firm

representing tesla and elon musk wrote a proposed bill that would change delaware's corporate law and pave the way for musk to receive his 2018 ceo pay package. the measure was introduced in. the state legislature legislature on monday, and comes after a judge rejected musk's pay package, which is worth tens of billions of dollars and is the largest ceo compensation plan in public corporate history. the vatican said this afternoon that the pope has pneumonia in both of his lungs, but is remaining in good spirits as he receives treatment at the hospital. he was admitted last week for a respiratory infection which grew to bronchitis. the vatican has now canceled all of his events through the weekend. and a nevada judge today rescheduled the trial of the man accused in the murder of tupac shakur to february 2026. it was due to start this month, next month in

las vegas. the judge said that nearly one year delay was needed to give dwayne davis a fair trial after his defense attorneys claimed new witnesses can prove that davis wasn't at the scene of the 1996 shooting of the rap star. it'll be 30 years after the fact that trial. >> will start. >> bertha, thank you very much, bertha coombs. now to the latest in the artificial intelligence wars. there's always something every minute, it seems. now, elon musk has unveiled his new high powered ai model called grok three. he claims it outperforms openai and deep sea. based on early testing. shares of rival meta, perhaps coincidentally, are perhaps not down 3.5% today to break their 20 day win streak. and as for openai leaders, sam altman is now trying to shield the company from hostile takeovers, potentially from musk himself. microsoft is a partner with openai, of course, although as of last month it will no longer be the sole cloud provider. so where does all of this leave

microsoft in the ai race? here on set with us is dean carignan. he's director of ai innovations at microsoft and coauthor of the new book out today called the insiders guide to innovation at microsoft. welcome. >> thank you for. >> having me. give me some. give us all some insight. you know, trade secrets. what a cool job to have at such an interesting time. how long have you been in the position? >> so 20. >> years at microsoft. >> about five. >> years ago, i met my coauthor, jo ann, who had just joined. and we looked around the world and we saw, wow, the world is changing fast. and in fact, in the era of generative ai, it's going to move faster. >> so you saw this coming five years ago. what did you did you guys have any. the openai partnership was more recent. so it sounds like microsoft maybe had its own things going on on that front. >> we had a lot. >> of internal ai. we had a lot of other innovations, but one of the things we noticed was the patterns of innovation were consistent across all of our technologies. and in fact, they were kind of independent of the underlying technology. so we realized they're transferable. it's not just microsoft that can

use these, but any company, any person, any organization. >> can you give us some examples? >> perfect example is when we started to interview people for the book, we realized how little they relied on a single idea and how much they relied on an innovative process and collaborative partners to actually execute the idea and bring it into the world. >> you're saying there's no eureka moments? >> precisely, or there are many eureka moments. and the hard part is choosing the one that you're going to execute on. finding the right partners across the company, bringing everyone together into this big tent, and pulling in the same, same direction to get the thing out into the world. >> what can you tell us about ai efforts at microsoft now? i mean, as as much as you can kind of open the kimono a little bit, like, what do you think the next couple of years look like? >> yeah, it's a big question with many possible answers. i think the thing that has really helped us has, has been to stay grounded in what we call human centered ai. human centered ai starts with the question of what

should i do? and only secondarily, ask the question, what can i do? and that's almost the inversion of the converse of the public conversation that we're having right now, which is really centered on the capabilities. when you flip the lens and you look at the needs of users and customers and employees, you can zero in on the tasks that ai is good at and needs to help with. and you can be much more intentional and precise in how you roll the ai out. >> is ai going to take all of our jobs? >> i don't believe so. why not? so. and i'm a father of two children, 11 and six. and so i do ask myself this question. >> my daughter is in college, and i and i say look for careers that i, as i tell her, can't be aged out. >> precisely. that's exactly the right advice. and ai is very good at the things that can be standardized and routinized. those are usually the things that people, humans don't like to do. they're what we call the drudgery of our job. and so by adopting ai smartly, you can

bring it in to do the things that you would rather avoid and outsource. and you can go into the activities that are truly human. creativity, collaboration, negotiation, supporting teams and bringing coalitions together. so i believe that's the path that we're on. it will be there are industries that will be hit harder than others, and it will be somewhat of a rocky path. but i believe ultimately we're going to have a world where there are more and better and more satisfying jobs. >> you know, i find it actually helps me be more creative and more collaborative, even just at home. the sort of silly ways we use it. i come up with little like things to do with my kids and or i ask. i mean, i use it quite a lot. but that said, i don't. i wouldn't say i use copilot a lot right now. what are microsoft's plans for kind of its branded ai technology? >> the creativity point is such a good one, and one of the things we write about in the book is the opportunity or the importance of diverging your thinking. now, the way we've historically done that is with other people. and we get

together and we brainstorm and we share ideas. people aren't always available for that. sometimes we have an idea on the spur of the moment, and we're home, and we want to have a round of feedback or input. or sometimes people's personality is such that they don't like the feedback or the criticism, or the way people might attack your idea. ai has this ability to be with us all the time, to respond to the way we like to engage and to help, to kind of mature and develop our ideas. >> so you can you can use. >> this is interesting. >> you can use ai to tweak people's performance at work. >> well, it's more about your thinking process. so if you think about the typical thought process, you may have an idea, you may develop it. at some point you're going to be blocked. now there's two things you can do when you're blocked. historically, you can think harder, which typically doesn't get you there. or you can seek out a human and bounce ideas off. ai is an alternative there, and it's also an alternative that can not only take your idea and give you feedback, but could

do a little bit of research. it could search the web. it could look through your email to see if you've talked about this with other people. so it can pull together other resources and assets. it's not necessarily a substitute for talking to another human, but it's an opportunity when a human might not be available or situation might not be ideal. >> all right. so you tell you don't tell your kids there's anything to worry about. >> i tell them to embrace i use it, study it, learn it, have fun with it, and be prepared to make it a part of their future life. >> this is. >> for people. >> of. >> a certain age. dean, we got to go. just make sure copilot doesn't turn into that stupid little paperclip. >> i love clippy. i love. >> clippy. >> it comes up all the time, and you can't get it off. >> the screen. >> i don't think there's a risk of that. >> okay. but i just want. i know you're, you know, as you go, you go back to redmond, just let you know. >> i will have a word with the right folks. just one. >> one, one random dude's opinion. >> how dare you? dean. thank

you. thank you. congrats on the book. dean carignan is director of ai innovations at microsoft. still to come, intel and meta have both been on hot streaks, but should you still jump in? free lunch is coming up next. and as we head to break, take a quick look at shares of robinhood on a wolfe research downgrade today. they're saying good news is already priced in. the shares are selling off about 7%. they're actually off session lows. still, robinhood since jan one is up 62% even with today's one is up 62% even with today's drop. we'll be right back. only the servicenow platform connects every corner of your business, putting ai agents to work for people. like secret agents? no, more like autonomous minions that you control. to do what? well, jim's agents resolve simple customer issues. and patty's agents flag network problems. - proactively. - yup. i'm lovin' my agents. wait, you all have agents? oh yeah. and on the servicenow platform, everyone's agents work together so everything works better. can i have agents? maybe. ♪♪

(traffic noises) (♪♪) the road to opportunity. is often the road overlooked. (♪♪) at enterprise mobility, we guide companies to unique solutions, from our team of mobility experts. because we believe the more ways we all have to move forward. the further we'll all go. meet connect m nasdaq gm, whose patented technology platform manages 120,000 all electric assets worldwide, with revenue surging over 1,100% since 2020. connect ems solutions deliver 60% energy savings for its customers, backed by 41 oem partnerships, 32 service providers and ten patent cntm is

shaping the future of ai powered energy. >> is this. >> your dream of retirement? >> how about this sweet deal? >> i like fishing. >> or is. >> this a little more your style? retiring wealth isn't a guarantee, it's. >> a goal. >> it's easy when markets are going up. but what about when they're not? that's why you need this. >> call for. >> retirement survival. >> kit, featuring your. >> guide to surviving market volatility. our stock. >> market. outlook plus the fisher investments difference three indispensable guides. yours free for calling 1-800-213-5317. >> fisher investment's. >> disciplined approach will. >> help see. >> you through the. market's ups. >> and downs, and give you the confidence you. >> need to reach a comfortable retirement, and our fees are structured so we do better when our clients do better. >> call now for your free retirement survival kit. 1-800-213-5317. see if. >> your dream retirement is on track. >> if your. portfolio is $1 million. >> or more, call fisher today.

call 1-800-213-5317. >> get invested. join the club. >> jim cramer is. >> an excellent teacher. i don't. >> have the time to do. >> this full. >> time for the value that we get. the investing club is very much. >> worth it. join the club. new members save with a special offer for a limited time at cnbc.com. terms and restrictions apply. >> for 20 straight trading sessions we have been telling you about meta. it is the greatest big cap stock run in the history of the modern stock market. but like all runs lou gehrig, cal ripken jr trying to do the baltimore accent, everything ultimately comes to an end. we still got, what, an hour and ten minutes to go kelly. but with meta down almost 4%. >> now. >> it looks like the 20 day run will be the end. we're back a free stock lunch right after this. crypto watch is sponsored by crypto.com.

by crypto.com. crypto.com is at ameriprise financial we know our clients are so much more than clients. they're conquerors and champions, parents and caretakers, believers and breadwinners. the goals that matter most to you matter most to us. helping you achieve them is what we do best. with personal financial advice from an advisor you can trust, and goal-based investing in solutions. it's no wonder we have a 4.9 out of five client satisfaction rating. ameriprise financial advice worth talking about. out of five client satisfaction rating. we're going big tonight let's go safety

whoa! should i call mom? no, no don't tell your mother anything handcrafted american made mattresses on the market today. delivered and set up in any room delivered and set up in any room of your (grandpa) i'm the richest guy in the world. (man 1) i have time to give. (man 2) i have people i can count on. (grandma) and a million stories to share. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts. exclusive interview with pfizer ceo albert bourla on the state of the pharma industry. how washington policy is impacting the sector john fort, morgan th.

>> ain't no better. >> time than now. >> welcome back. let's do some

three stock lunch. and we have big movers today. let's give you the insight on how to trade them. exactly jessica inskip is here. she's director of investor research@stockbrokers.com. jessica, glad to have you back. let's start with meta. don't need to say much else about it. although the 4% drop today, i'm not sure we know why, but it's breaking a 20 day win streak. what do you do? >> yeah. >> so meta. >> was actually. >> if we look at the. >> one and a half year chart again, 13. >> 26 and. >> 40 weekly moving averages, i'll use that consistently because it represents one, two and three quarter's worth of prices. it is still in its bullish trading cycle, but it is following a pattern that it's been following since it broke out of a six month consolidation pattern formed in 2024. essentially what it's doing is if you look at the bollinger bands, which represents two standard deviations it reaches that loses its momentum, and then it has a pullback and finds support around the 13 weekly moving average. and then that upper range of the band actually aligns with the 161.8% fibonacci

extension around 740. so that puts support really low around the 13 weekly moving average takes about 4 to 6 weeks. but know that that's a moving target. so a pullback is expected a. >> pullback expected. but you still see an uptrend. let's move on to intel then which is jumping today on the breakup rumors. you know but it's been up a lot this year. what do you see there. >> so this one actually overcame all of its major milestones to shift into a bullish trading cycle. and it's forming a base. so my next target for intc is 2643 which is the november 2024 high. follow that by $30, which is the may 2024 weekly high. and the 40 weekly is now the first level of defense that's found around 24. and then below that, a range from as low as 21 that needs to be maintained. so this is a base we need it to stay if 20, if we go below 21 that is bad. >> all right. so you're getting a little bit more of a warning. even i can look at that chart and see which way the lines are

going. so a note of caution there. and then what about amazon. the shares are a little lower today but they're up 11% since mid november. you know it's often mentioned as you know kind of that. and alphabet i don't know that was one of our guest picks earlier. what would you do with that stock here. >> so still bullish at risk. these are short term pullbacks that i'm seeing that's aligning with the broader breadth of the market. we had a big breakout relative to the s&p 500 over a five year period that is still intact. we still see the 1326 and 40 acting as support in the near term. a sell off could be triggered if we have a weekly close below the 13 weekly moving average, which is around 225. so watch that. >> 225 is the numero to watch. jessica. appreciate it. as always. good to see you jessica inskip, stockbrokers.com. we'll be right back. >> catch the market zone today >> catch the market zone today and every weekday on ♪♪ well would you look at that? jerry, you've got to see this.

i've seen it. trust me, after 15 walks, it gets a little old. ugh. i really should be retired by now. wish i'd invested when i had the chance... to the moon! unbelievable. stop waiting. start investing. e*trade ® from morgan stanley. >> get 0%. >> brain interference for. >> fast non-drowsy. >> allergy relief with allegra. >> it's a no brainer. >> disney's snow white in. >> theaters march 21st. >> the number of public companies is shrinking, while the number of private companies is increasing. at franklin templeton, we are expanding access to the growing opportunity in private markets, offering the potential for greater diversification and enhanced returns. through our world class specialist

investment managers. we are empowering advisors with solutions to build the portfolios of the future. today, portfolios of the future. today, alternatives by franklin ♪ empower ♪ i got her a little something. a little something, dad? hold up. walt rolled his 401k accounts into an empower ira, and it's grown nicely. i'm for team splurge. (♪♪) thanks, grandpa! get good at money. so you can be a little bad. empower. ♪ ♪ the flag replacement program got started by a good friend of mine, a navy vet, saw a flag at the office that needed to be replaced and said wouldn't this be great if this could be something that we did for anyone? comcast has always been a community driven company. this is one of those great examples of the way we're getting out there. >> i love you. >> and deep.

>> breath in. >> did you know that people everywhere are recommending good rx? >> my doctor told me about good rx to help us save money on our meds. >> and my daughter told me about it. i took a lot of prescriptions without x. helps me keep up. >> my neighbor showed me the app. >> help me save. >> on my kids allergy pills. >> americans everywhere are sharing the savings, dropping off a prescription. >> great. >> another good reason to check good rx. >> across the globe. industries are transforming and businesses need to navigate the changing landscape to stay ahead. when you partner with barclays. >> every change. >> leads to a bold possibility. you have the vision. we have the insights. financial solutions and global perspectives to help you make it real. barclays investment bank powering possible. >> got it in with mehta. mehta's

20 day win streak likely. unless you see a massive change coming to an end. this has been an incredible run for one of america's most well-known companies. >> i think you're right. one of the most incredible runs we've ever seen in markets down 4% today. maybe it's crack, i don't know, maybe it's just time to take some profits. >> that's it. >> thanks for watching. >> closing bell starts right now. >> all right guys, thanks so much. welcome to closing bell i'm scott wapner live from post nine here at the new york stock exchange. it's make or break hour begins with the battle for ai domination and new developments, placing elon musk and sam altman at odds once again. we'll have those details straight ahead, as several stocks in that space are moving today. here is the scorecard with 60 to go in regulation. not exactly the highest conviction one way or the other today, but the s&p is making another run at a new closing high. we will track it about 4 or 5 points below it right now. sectors they're pretty much split today. energy is leading the way. and most of the banks are higher today. two bank of america shares. however there they are. they