tv Fast Money CNBC February 18, 2025 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
5:00 pm
big one. still to report earnings next week. that's nvidia. i can't help but wonder what different tectonic plates shift around that report. >> yeah, we'll have to see. in the meantime, we did get a record closing high for the s&p 500. we got a record intraday high for the nasdaq 100. that's going to do it for us here at overtime. >> fast money starts now. >> live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square. this is fast money. and here's what's on tap for tonight. housing headaches. shares of toll brothers sinking. as you can see after the company's latest earnings report. that after a dismal day overall for the builders, we're going to dig in on the numbers and bring you the trade on the housing space. and back at records the s&p setting its first intraday and closing record high since late january. what's driving the move. and is there more gas left in the tank for stocks. we're going to debate it. plus a baba bounce takes the stock to three year highs. investors bet on a win
5:01 pm
for wynn resorts. and meta breaks a historic winning streak. what's next for the social giant. i'm dominic chu in for melissa lee this afternoon. coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq market site. on the desk tonight, dan nathan, guy adami, carter worth and julie beal. let's get right to the markets. the s&p staging a late day rally to set new record intraday and closing highs. as you can see there. it's the first time since late january the dow and the nasdaq by the way also inching back towards records of their own. we're going to get to all of that in just a few minutes time. but we start with an earnings alert on toll brothers the home builder. sharply lower after missing wall street's earnings and delivery expectations, estimates are diana olick joins us with all the relevant numbers. diana. >> well, dom, it was kind of an ugly first quarter for the luxury home builder missing on the top and bottom lines. toll also came in short on deliveries. revenue down 5% year over year. ceo doug hurley said in the release that the miss was mostly due to some impairments and a delay in the sale of an apartment property in a joint
5:02 pm
venture. he said home building operations met expectations. he did, however, add that although demand has remained healthy in many of our markets, and particularly at the higher end, affordability constraints and growing inventories in certain markets are pressuring sales, especially at the lower end. the average sale price in q1 for toll was $925,000. he also said that based on first quarter results, the gross margin embedded in their backline and backlog and the trends they're seeing early in the spring selling season. they are reaffirming all key home building guidance for the full year, including deliveries, average price and adjusted gross margin. there was nothing in the release about the potential impact of tariffs. we'll look to hear more on that on the analyst call tomorrow morning. but dom as you know, homebuilders sentiment this morning tanked because of tariffs. and that was down to a five month low from the national association of home builders. >> it's all going to be part of that contextual picture. diana thank you very much for all of that. let's turn now to what's going to happen with the trade here on the homebuilders. and maybe i'll start with you on
5:03 pm
this. if you take a look at the way things have moved, the sentiment numbers, as diana alluded to, had tariffs front and center. do we think that there is a plateau building for homebuilders. >> before we even get into it? welcome. we're a welcoming show. >> be back. >> with you guys. so welcome dom. >> am i right dan 100% guy. >> appreciate that. i think it's a big deal. i think. >> tariffs are the headline. >> interest rates though. >> are probably. >> the real plot. and when you look at the. toll brothers average selling price is now down 8% year. >> over year. >> so in my opinion. >> higher rates are starting to have an impact. >> and you look at this stock. i mean, the. >> move we've. >> had since november has been significant. and to me it's not about eps. >> it's not. >> about if these stocks are expensive. it's cheap. what do you think about the employment. picture and what do you think about the rate picture. i think the employment picture is going to deteriorate. i think rates are going to go up. so almost by definition you can't own these. now if you put a chart up you'll see 110 or so was the level. >> that we. >> bounced from in. >> july of. >> last year. that should be
5:04 pm
support. >> that's probably where we're headed. >> yeah. >> it's worth noting though. it's not just obviously homebuilders. it's also the autos. right. and so they're. >> facing this headwind of potential you know tariffs here. and if you go back and you were just calling up charts here today. >> aren't we. >> we do. >> let's look. >> at the gm chart for a second. it doesn't. >> look too different than. where toll brothers topped out two. it was late november. so we saw a lot of sectors rally over the enthusiasm about a pro-growth sort of agenda by the new administration. but i think, you know, first and foremost, i think tariffs have basically taken over like the story here as it relates to our economy. and that's the sort of thing where you talk about the s&p, you talk about the dow making new highs at some point. these sectors that face these headwinds are going to weigh on s&p 500 earnings. even if it's just indecision right. whether it be from consumers or it might be indecision from companies and the ceos and how they choose to spend their money on r&d and capex. >> julie, if we talk about the fundamentals of the housing market, this is a key point in the overall scheme of the year and maybe even this market.
5:05 pm
right now, it's the spring selling season. we're almost into it. how worrying is toll brothers and how worrying is the homebuilders trade. if you look at it from that standpoint? >> well. >> i think. >> for sure. >> it's. >> pretty critical that. >> right now they get out there and be able to make up for the mistakes that they had. they reaffirmed. >> their guidance. >> and so i. >> think they have a. >> certain amount. >> of confidence. they have a certain amount of their inventory that's already bought and paid for and sold. so i think that their visibility is probably better than the average home builder. and also, demographically speaking, they're better positioned because they're. >> a higher. >> end builder. i'm much more worried about, you know, the lower end entry level building. companies because i think they're even more economically sensitive. exactly. to guy's point, the employment picture is what's really going to drive them longer term. that's what we really need to see. i think tariffs are something that can be. >> an. >> intermediate or short term headwind for them, but they've all been able to be pretty. >> resilient in. >> the face of that. >> hey carter, are any of these charts set up better than others
5:06 pm
either one way or the other? if you can find some momentum or some carry through to the upside or down? >> well. >> it's. >> a. very homogeneous. >> group. >> of course. and what we know is that they're. >> all under. >> pressure and they all peaked as 4 or 5, six months ago. in fact, the s&p 500. >> home building. >> sub. >>y group right. >> now is down 30% from its. >> peak. >> in september. >> and you. >> have a. >> sort of a12 setup. that's not good. the one is that this group has doubled the performance of the s&p over the past decade. >> the past. >> 15. >> 20 years. >> and now. is underperforming. >> so when you have something that's been a massive outperformer that. >> then starts to stall. >> and roll over, all of these stocks qualify as bullish. >> to bearish reversal sells. and the news. >> out with toll brothers doesn't. help the situation. >> you know julie i want to go back to something you said with regard to some of these the spectrum across there. one thing that we do know is that many of the housing related stocks outside of the pure builders, i'm thinking names like home
5:07 pm
depot or lowe's or maybe names like masco on the building supply side of things have been trading alongside maybe not exactly lockstep, but they're not exactly momentum upside winners at this point either. how big of a deal is it for some of those other plays, like a home depot or lowe's, given the fact that the housing market right now seems to be losing at least a little bit of steam for the time being? >> yeah. >> i mean, i think it's absolutely critical, right? >> those all. >> of. >> those businesses, everyone has been holding their breath. if you read any analyst. >> note covering any of these. >> companies for all of 2024, we're just waiting for interest rates to decline. and we're all just waiting and waiting and holding our breath eventually. you know, we're not going to be feeling so great. i think the biggest concern for everyone is that affordability remains a very large problem in the in the home sector. and we just don't have a lot of visibility in terms of when interest rates are really going to soften. there's just more factors pushing them up than down. >> about a week and a half or so. >> ago, i thought that.
5:08 pm
>> home depot could. >> break out through those december i think 2021 highs, and it looked like it was poised to do it. it has not traded well ever since. should come as no surprise to fast money fans. >> i put. >> them on it. but with that said, this report on the 25th becomes extraordinarily important in terms of where the stock is technically and maybe where it is on a valuation level as well. so, you know, these downstream plays, which have seemingly been teflon, potentially could. >> be. >> under a lot of pressure as well. >> all right. so with that in mind, let's turn back to the broader markets overall because the major indices are closing near their highs of the day right now. the s&p setting by the way new intraday and closing records. the nasdaq is less than a percent off its high while the dow eked out a gain of ten points. so for more on what's been driving and what's next for the markets, let's bring in katerina simonetti of morgan stanley private wealth management. katerina, what does it say to you that we're having this generally negative conversation right now about a key part of the market and the economy, yet the nasdaq is a
5:09 pm
percent away from record highs. the dow is a little over a percent from record highs. and the s&p is at record highs right now. >> well, dom, the market has. >> been extremely positive over the last couple of weeks, which is. >> unusual especially for the month of february that has been historically volatile. >> and when we're thinking. >> about the backdrop of the tariff. fears and executive orders and higher bond yields, it is almost interesting to see this development. and perhaps it is the possibility of the war ending. perhaps there is a general. sense that european. >> countries will. >> have to step up. or maybe it's just the healthy economic backdrop that we have been experiencing over the last couple of years. but markets seem to be quite opportunistic. >> it's not just that, katarina. if you take a look at yields, we talk about interest rates so often as a driving force behind these markets, we are still
5:10 pm
markedly lower than we were. we were just a few weeks ago. in terms of the ten year treasury yield. it's a benchmark for mortgage lending and elsewhere as well. what exactly is the rate importance for the overall market? do we need to see continued rate, gradual declines on the long end of things in order for this market to keep going higher? >> well, we definitely have an extremely data driven fed. and as as we are kind of deciphering the. news and are trying to see if our conversation is this a policy or is it a negotiating tactic? once we see the actual effect that higher for longer narrative has in the economy, federal reserve is going to figure out the way to proceed. we are expecting two rate cuts this year, perhaps one in may and one in september. but in our view, there are so many factors that are going going to go into it. and perhaps we're just seeing the broadening of the market. last couple of years, the leadership of the market has
5:11 pm
been in technology and seeing other sectors like healthcare, like energy, manufacturing software, you know, on the tech side, you know, coming in and leading the way, you know, is something that could be affecting this market as well as high yields. >> do you think that broadening out trade plays out markedly so in 2025? katarina. do we see names like financials continue to outperform. energy was an outperformer today albeit on higher oil prices. does that rotation trade still happen? >> no. it was a surprise to so many investors that technology was not the leading sector in 2024. it was in fact financials. financials ended up being up 32% in 12 months. and we are going to see more of this as quality stocks are going to be leading the way. there's a lot of fear, there's a lot of uncertainty. but there's also a lot of opportunity in quality names, both here in the us and also in europe. >> katerina 4%. nobody seems to be concerned about the labor market, the unemployment rate.
5:12 pm
are there any cracks in the armor that you see, or is this basically, you know, we're in this great environment for the labor market and therefore theoretically a great environment for the market? >> we have not seen full employment at this level for quite some time. is it playing a role in overall data? you know, as we're looking at it of course. and it also, you know, is giving investors that sense of comfort with the market. but we can't forget about the fact that we're coming off of the two extremely positive years. unusually positive. so there has to be realistic expectations of what this year is going to bring, even with the healthiest economic backdrop, we're probably looking at the low single digit returns, you know, for the end of the year. >> how fearful, katerina, do your clients, investors in general, have to be about a renewed inflationary threat this year? you laid out the case for maybe two rate cuts this year, but it sure seems like the near term data suggests inflation is certainly not gone.
5:13 pm
>> of course, inflation has been a major concern for us throughout the 24, and we know without a shadow of a doubt that tariffs are inflationary. now we have to wait and see what this tariff policy is actually going to end up being. but inflation was a concern, will be a concern and absolutely is going to have, you know, the negative effect on the market. and this is where, you know, investors absolutely are concerned. so when we're looking at the sectors, we will need to be significantly more selective about our stock picking this year versus just investing in the broad market index and just seeing how things play out. >> all right. katerina simonetti, morgan stanley, private wealth, thank you very much. we'll see you soon. >> thank you for having. >> me, dan, given what she just said, are there favorite sectors that you should be in given given the backdrop that we've seen develop. >> we're seeing rotations. >> within tech. and again you know out of semis, semis have really been flat over the last six months or so. obviously nvidia and taiwan semi have been
5:14 pm
big outperformers but it can't get the socks the socks going at all. next week is going to be obviously an important when we get nvidia's earnings. and obviously i think the whole sector should likely trade with it. on a day like today, though, i look at the fateful eight, right? i don't see many of them up. you know, nvidia was up 3.5% at one point today. i think it closed up 40 basis points. microsoft closed up a little bit. the rest were down. and you look at software and it's doing pretty well. so you're seeing a bit of rotation within tech. but when you look at some of these other areas that we just talked about, some pockets in the industrial space homebuilding obviously financials have trade pretty well. so that's on the flip side of what we've seen or what we've just been talking about, the ones that are kind of seeing rates as a headwind. so 4.5% up in the s&p 500 year to date. we had two consecutive years of 25% returns. something's got to happen if we're going to kind of get to double digit returns. i think that katarina just said they're expecting low single digit gains this year. well, you know what? we're up low single digits right now, so it'll be interesting to see how we get there. the last
5:15 pm
thing i'll just say is that both the bank of america global fund manager survey, 89% or so of the respondents said they're like full up in cash, like they don't have cash on the sidelines. that seems a little euphoric right here. >> all right, julie, what does this setup say to you? does it feel like there's no gas left? there's no fuel left in the tank at this point. >> i think there is. >> fuel left. >> in the tank. i think because we've. >> seen enough. weakness in. earnings outside of the. >> magnificent seven. >> that there's still opportunity. >> for growth, but it really is requiring everything to go right. and i think that's the kind of concern that we're. >> all. >> feeling is that. >> there are. >> enough difficulties in front. of the markets and in front of just companies writ large that. they have uncertainty, they have inflation, they have interest rates. and these are the types of things that can really trip up companies who are trying to navigate this landscape. and so i think it's really natural to look at this market, at this pricing, at these levels and say, gosh, we really could use a nice pullback in terms of being
5:16 pm
able to level set that and reflect where we are as far as. the fundamentals. >> all right. well, speaking of navigating folks, president trump is signing some executive orders just in the last hour. cnbc's own megan costello has all those details. and these ceos are becoming a fact of life. in the first 100 days of the administration. what exactly do we need to know now, and how do we have to navigate these new ios? >> almost every day? there's some new ones, dom. so a couple of executive orders and a press conference down in florida just in the last hour. the first order was a move directing trump's domestic policy council to look for ways to expand access to fertility treatments and to make ivf and other treatments more affordable. he also then signed a presidential memorandum. so one step down from an order committing to what he called radical transparency. this one directs his agencies to release the complete details of every program and contract that they cancel as they work to streamline the government. so something to look for there. as
5:17 pm
doge begins to work its way through federal agencies. trump then also spoke a bit about tariffs, saying that he will be announcing more specifics on his sectoral tariffs after april 2nd, but that tariffs on cars and pharmaceuticals are likely to start at 25% and could go higher from there. then on the doge front, trump said that he has no concerns about the thousands of layoffs of probationary employees across federal agencies this weekend. even he was specifically asked about the layoffs of people who focus on nuclear weapons security, who were immediately then rehired. no concerns about how that was done. he was also asked about the potential for a conflict of interest as doge works with the faa and the defense department. given elon musk's and spacex contracts that are in place, trump said that anything to do with spacex, he will not let musk partake in that. and then finally, dom. as trump walked away from the cameras, he said that he would probably meet with russian president vladimir putin before the end of the month. that came just a few minutes after trump
5:18 pm
said that what he wants with russia and ukraine is peace, and that he thinks he has the power to end this war. so much more to watch on that front as well, dom. >> all right. thank you very much, megan costello, for a lot of detail and recapping of these new ios and memoranda. so this is important, guy, as we talk about the navigation aspect of it, we have to deal with this idea that there are uncertainties that need to be addressed by the markets vis a vis the administration. what exactly does that do to say investor sentiment, given what we've seen now so far? >> well, apparently investor sentiment is not great. apparently the lowest i've seen in about a year and a half. >> and yet records are at record highs. >> my next point. so i mean, clearly the market has figured out how to sort of deal with this and handicap it. so with the vix below 16, the s&p effectively at an all time high i mean the market doesn't seem to care. we'll talk about it all the time and rightly so. but the market has figured out how to handicap this. i will say this though it does come down to interest rates. and you know, you look at the move in interest
5:19 pm
rates and all the things that we continue to hear are not bullish for the bond market. in other words, they're not reason for rates to go lower, the reason for the rates to go higher. that to me is the real story of this market. >> all right. thanks very much, guys. coming up on the show, a potential breakup boost. shares of intel surging on reports competitors could be looking to split the company up. what a deal could look like coming up next. and don't look now. but alibaba is up nearly 50% in just 2025 alone. founder jack ma resurfacing in a high profile meeting with china's xi jinping, the latest on the chinese tech trade. when fast money returns, we are back in two. >> you're watching fast money here on cnbc. we'll be right here on cnbc. we'll be right back. at ameriprise financial we know our clients are so much more than clients. they're go-getters and legacy-leavers, and what matters most to them matters most to us. it's no wonder we have a 4.9 out of five client satisfaction rating.
5:20 pm
ameriprise financial. tempting. >> to retreat or simply. >> wait. >> and see. >> at cme group. >> we empower those who act. we deliver tools to help manage risk. >> and capture. >> opportunities in every. >> market climate. >> across every major asset class. >> to seize. >> each possibility at precisely the right moment. the right moment. >> cme this is clem. clem's not a morning person. or a night person. or a...people person. but he is an "i can solve this in 4 different ways" person. and that person... is impossible to replace. you need clem. clem needs benefits. work with principal so we can help you help clem with a retirement and benefits plan that's right for him. let our expertise round out yours.
5:21 pm
more productive day. get 24 hour continuous relief that does not fade bewise all take. >> xyzal at night. >> get invested. >> join the club. >> he makes. >> the complex. >> simple and not to make irrational decisions. the return on investment for the club pays for itself. >> join the club. new members save with a special offer
5:22 pm
dude, i really need a new phone. check out my new samsung galaxy s25 ultra. it's got galaxy ai. imagine this thing running on our superfast xfinity mobile network. and i also heard that it can do multiple things with a single command. —with google gemini. let me try it. add recipes with overripe bananas to my “dessert ideas” note. that's what you chose to ask it? i had other things planned. ask how to get up to one thousand dollars off the new samsung galaxy s25 ultra with xfinity mobile. 16% following a wall street journal report that rivals broadcom and taiwan semi are exploring independent deals to split up. the chip maker. broadcom is reportedly interested in acquiring intel's chip design and marketing business, while taiwan semi wants either partial or complete control of its factories or
5:23 pm
foundry business. intel's up more than 36% this year after today's gains, but have been nearly cut in half since the start of 2024. dan, this is one that is in your jen, a acronym as we are seeing up there right now. so take us through the intel. >> i played the game right guy. you see what i did there? some of the folks on this desk don't do it, but what i was trying to do here is kind of go after some laggards. and this action is pretty interesting. guys been making the case, i think, for a couple years that intel is too important of an american company just to continue to flounder like this. and so when you see what's going on, it's really a shame that the biden administration didn't come around to this kind of quicker. i think they gave him maybe 8 or $9 billion as part of the chips act. that wasn't going to do anything. they don't have a ceo right now. that chip design business is probably more than three quarters of the value of this company. i think that's one of the main reasons why the stock has rallied the way it has, from maybe $20 to where it's trading, like 27 or something like that. there's a gap to be filled above of that. any way you look at this thing
5:24 pm
as some of the parts is probably a bit higher, i think it's gone too far, too fast. i'd be really surprised if we get any announcements in the near term. these sorts of things without a ceo in place are probably pretty hard to navigate. >> carter, you got to put these things in context. we're flashing all kinds of timelines for charts here, massive moves that we're seeing very much in the green. but if you look longer term, it's a very different story. so what do the charts say to you about whether intel has more room to run? >> sure. i mean, that's just it. time frames. it's all it's ever thus. and one has to know who one is in the market and what one's time. frame is. we know that this stock still is way below its.com peak up in the 70s. it's right now at $27 stock still down some 60%. >> and yet what. >> we. >> also know is. >> it's. >> been basing and. >> bottoming for the better part of ten months. >> it keeps. >> holding 18, 19, 18, 19. now it's thrust aggressively on heavy. volume from that 1819 level to where we are 27. >> and we are into. >> the gap that i guess guy referred to. that was a drop in gap on earnings in the 1st of
5:25 pm
august. and so a natural sort of resting spot, if you will, for this current day to day thrust would be to fill that gap that's not much higher. that's at 30, 31. at that point, you would be back to a level of overhead supply. and if i were in this stock and had caught this move, i would be cutting it back by half above 30. >> all right, guy, this is interesting. speaking of volumes, i mean, this thing right now, it looks like as things are settling out, has traded about 260 million shares today. the ten day average is roughly 116 million. there was a lot of activity today. >> yeah, almost three times normal. we'll call it two and a half times normal volume. absolutely. dan was kind to say. i've been pointing that out. he was also kind enough to point out i've been saying it since it was a $50 stock. so it's been wrong. but with that said, i mean, if you look technically the latest low we made is a bit of a double bottom from the fall. nothing's been fixed at intel. i want to be crystal clear, but the stock can still
5:26 pm
go higher. and carter and dan are right to point out those levels. 31 gets us back to the levels that we broke down from in july of last year. i think that's where it's headed. then we'll have another conversation. >> all right. there's still a lot more to come here on fast money. so here's what's coming up on the show. >> quite the bounce for alibaba. the chinese tech stock trading at three year highs will support from beijing help the rally keep running. plus the future of health care in america. what billionaire investor mark cuban has to say about the space you're watching fast money live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right times square. we're back right at ameriprise financial we know our clients are so much more than clients. they're conquerors and champions, and what matters most to them matters most to us. it's no wonder we have a 4.9 out of five client satisfaction rating. ameriprise financial. only servicenow connects every corner of your business so people can do all their work on one platform. no more mindless swivel chairing between platforms.
5:27 pm
or swivel chairing between apps. no more swivel chairing! i don't feel so good. what does he do here again? mostly that kind of stuff. will you push me back? no. melt limitations with our most. >> capable jeep. >> wrangler ever. >> or battle the elements and win. >> in the jeep gladiator. >> hurry into the jeep. >> president's day. sales event before these incredible. >> offers slip away. during the jeep president's. >> day sales. >> event, get 10% below msrp for an average of. $5,700 under m he looks down at his queen, and says... (in atrocious french) au revoir mon amour. a bientot let's work on that french, shall we? (♪♪) au revoir mon amour. a bientot au owwwww bientot au revoir mon amour. a bientot (♪♪)
5:28 pm
(in perfect french) au revoir mon amour. a bientot now search with ai assistant with the hotels.com app when emergency strikes, first responders rely on the latest technology. that's why t-mobile created t-priority built for the 5g era. only t-priority dynamically dedicates more capacity for first responders. here. the best part? it's up to 90% off the real deal. authenticated luxury resale shop authenticated luxury resale shop no i don't play for money. my ambition is to play big—to help and inspire others. that's why i joined sofi. they help people earn more and save more, so they can realize their ambitions. sofi. get your money right. at ameriprise financial we know our clients are so much more than clients. they're go-getters and legacy-leavers,
5:29 pm
and what matters most to them matters most to us. it's no wonder we have a 4.9 out of five client satisfaction rating. ameriprise financial. a deal? >> deal. >> awesome. >> appreciate it man. >> thank you. >> let's go. >> don't miss the cnbc premiere episode of shark tank tonight, 9:00 eastern. >> welcome back to fast money. alibaba. alibaba shares are up almost 2%, bringing the tech giant year to date gains to nearly 50%. i can't believe i'm saying this. the stock hit levels today not seen since february of 2022. founder jack ma, making a rare appearance at a business symposium as you're seeing there, hosted by none other than chinese president xi jinping on monday. the pier, seen here shaking hands as beijing starts to show some more support for the country's
5:30 pm
private sector, and maybe tech giants in particular. kai. it wasn't that long ago we were talking about the all out assault of the chinese communist party on their tech industry. >> we put that picture. can we, our crack staff in dc, put that picture back. are those what do they call those members? only chat. is that what they're rocking? >> that is like a you mean chinese president xi jinping? >> that's a good look, man. >> it is. but it doesn't have that members only logo. >> yeah, maybe. maybe they're not allowed to rep. >> no i don't know. >> look i as well we talk about acronyms before so i'll throw you mine. the tube the b and the tube as you probably well aware is alibaba which is killing it. this year. and there's you know, despite the fact that the stock has gone i think from 82 to a buck and a quarter, there's still room in this name for people like you're out of your mind maybe. now the good news is they report on thursday and maybe they'll say something. we'll scare some people, and maybe they'll get an opportunity to buy a cheaper. but alibaba and i've said this now for a while, should be $140 stock. >> yeah. >> i think we got to get a little more clarity about what
5:31 pm
apple is going to be doing with alibaba. obviously baidu not obviously, but baidu has been thrown in there too. as somebody who might be participating in apple intelligence. and when you think about that, that's really the story right now, right? so to me, you know, the company or the country, you know, president xi, i mean, they sat on these companies, these are their national championships for all intents and purposes, and they got a lot of room to go. i mean, from a stock perspective. but they also have to prove to the world that they are basically on par with what we have over here, despite the fact that our digital companies, for all intents and purposes, can't be there. but the story of apple intelligence, the story of u.s. multinationals going in and partnering with alibaba and baidu to me means there's more room to run. but i would actually probably be focused on baidu, despite the fact that they gave some disappointing guidance here today. >> carter, what can we believe it? can we believe the near to medium term momentum that we've seen in some of these chinese tech giants? or is this just going to lead to more tears? kind of like the last couple of years had. >> all right. so we have this is the second go at it. right.
5:32 pm
we'll recall that of course in september. and it was a very prescient thing. tepper came out and said bye all things chinese. and what you had was a huge surge in the hang seng, up some 40% and baba up 60. and that peaked on the 7th of october, almost to give 6,070% of it back. now, if you were to look at the hang seng, we're right back to the penny to that october 7th high, whereas baba is through the high. the presumption is that there's room to run. and of course, if one wants to dream, one can look at the five. year chart of alibaba and look back and see how high it's been and how much ground it still has potentially to recoup losses. >> all right. coming up on the show, what billionaire investor mark cuban has to say about the next move in pharma and how our traders are handling the stock moves in that space when fast money returns after this break. >> missed a moment of fast. catch us anytime on the go. follow the fast money podcast.
5:33 pm
we're back right after this. >> in a world of uncertainty and disruption, how will your investments stay resilient? we've been navigating change for 125 years, always looking forward, anticipating risks, and trusted to manage over $1 trillion in assets worldwide. solving for the needs of investors today and tomorrow. investors today and tomorrow. that's the power it all started with a small business idea. it's a pillow with a speaker in it! that's right craig. pulling in the perfect team to get the job done. i'm just here for the internets. at&t, it's super-fast! you locked us out?! and when thrown a curveball... arrggghh! ahhhh! [crashing sounds] we had everything we needed. is the internet out? don't worry, we have at&t internet back-up. the next level network for small business.
5:34 pm
♪♪ i sold a pillow! (♪♪) the booking app i used didn't have agentforce. so an ai agent didn't know to move my reservations inside... ...or know what i like to eat, which is not that. what's up, my brother? oh, hey, bud! we really needed this rain. right? [car splashing rain water] agentforce helps restaurants prevent dining disasters. paddle on over! it's what ai was meant to be. we got you, brother. stock picks. become a smarter investor with the power of cnbie
5:35 pm
5:36 pm
nasdaq ending slightly higher as well on the day. meta's record run finally coming to an end after a 20 day winning streak, though shares dropping nearly 3% to end that 20 day streak, which started a month ago. that was the longest run ever, ever of any stock currently in the s&p 500. so i alluded to historic earlier on. it is quantitatively so. shares of howard hughes giving back its late day gains after hours. bill ackman's pershing square announcing a revised proposal for the real estate development company, saying it would buy 10 million shares for 90 bucks apiece and some more after hours action. occidental petroleum beating earnings expectations but missing revenue estimates. and devon energy posting earnings and revenues that beat expectations. both companies also increasing their quarterly dividends. devin higher by three quarters of a percent. occidental down by 1.5%. now, as the nation's health agencies grapple with funding cuts and
5:37 pm
major personnel changes. pharma industry leaders are convening in washington, d.c. to lay out their policy goals in the year ahead. our own angelica peebles is at the pharma industry lobbying groups commitment to a healthier america event, where she just sat down with costplus drugs founder and, of course, billionaire investor mark cuban. angelica, what can you tell us? >> hey, >> dom. >> that's right, we are here. and of. >> course, pbms are. >> a. big focus. >> of the pharmaceutical industry. now, mark cuban three years ago launched his costplus drugs. and the idea there is that he sells the drugs that he buys for just the cost that he. >> bought them for. >> in a 15% markup. and, you know, mark cuban telling me at this point that it's been pretty successful. but so far they've really only been able to sell generics, and it's going to take a lot more to get the branded companies, the companies that are selling the branded drugs, to work with him. >> as we. >> convince those ceos to. >> move away. >> from the. >> big pbms.
5:38 pm
>> so you've seen, you know, box.com, tyson. >> foods. >> at&t and a growing list of others, you know, probably 22 million lives covered. if we can get to 60 or 70 million lives covered, then it's okay for merck and others to say, look, we're not beholden to those. big pbms any longer. >> now, i know it's a health care conference, but i did have to ask about the big mavericks trade. that has been very controversial. i asked mark if he's regretting his decision to sell his majority stake in the mavs, and he laughed. and he said no. he said that he is really enjoying spending time with his kids and he's, you know, happy that he can protect them from the, quote, hell and hatred that happens if you make a mistake. which made me pause and ask if it was in fact a blunder. >> i would have done it differently. but you know what? they paid me a lot of money to make those choices. and patrick smart, i know patrick's been getting a lot of crap. i know nico's been getting. but they're. >> good people. >> and they do have the best interest of the mavericks at heart. >> and before he left, i did
5:39 pm
have to ask if he thinks that there's any chance that the mavs leave dallas. and he laughed and said, no, dom. >> you covered it all. angelica, thank you very much for that and good luck with this travel from. >> trying to get it all here. >> you hit it all, angelica. people, thank you very much for that. julie, let's get out to you about this. the pharma industry conference here puts a big spotlight on an industry right now that is very front and center for folks watching what the trump administration will do. what exactly does this tell you about whether or not pharma is investable in 2025? >> i think only pockets of it are investable, and i think even that is pretty challenging. i think, you know, early indications are. >> that. >> tariffs could be happening. >> in. >> pharma, but that doesn't really tell us a. >> lot about our. >> existing drugs and pharma companies writ large. i think the outlook right now is pretty uncertain, and i don't view it as a super investable class. i would rather own businesses that serve pharma companies. i think that the pricing situation is
5:40 pm
such that it's so opaque with the pbms that we could see more and more pressure on pricing going forward in the us. >> guy, what do we think? >> well, a couple names have been unbelievable. gilead is within a few dollars of an all time high made ten years ago. i think analysts are way off sides. i think deutsche bank just upgraded the name. you're going to see more and more people do that around some of these fda rulings that have been in their favor. number one, in j&j, if you're looking for value, massive double bottom around 144 or so, i think j&j could give you some upside over the next couple of weeks, too. >> carter, what do you think? >> well, it's a very julie makes this point. it's only pockets. so we know that the sub industry group s&p 500 pharmaceuticals is the big three. that would be of course pfizer merck lilly. but you've also got bristol-myers j&j. what's interesting is that the relative performance of this group to the market is at 30 year lows. i mean, it's incredible with all of the heavy lifting that lilly's done. so the question is, is this sort of deep value or is it a contrarian bet? my hunch is yes. an
5:41 pm
overweight here makes sense. >> guy. >> we love mark cuban. friend of the show for. >> mark cuban has been watching this show since the inception. one of the first guests we had a friend of ours, a friend of the show. absolutely. >> what he's doing in the pharma space. pretty cool. she asked him about the luka trade. you know, the mavericks lost in the finals last year. boston celtics kind of smoked him a little bit, right? so a little bit. a lot of it. right. that team valued at $5 billion. the mavericks celtics are trading here. what do you think guy. what are we doing north of seven. what do you think north of 7 billion. >> yeah. there's going to be an nba team that goes for 10 billion over the next 3 to 5 years. without question i mean that's the celtics. >> or what if they win this year they got a little bit dynasty. >> could you. yeah. well they're not going to win this year unfortunately. there's a team down the street about eight blocks from here that look poised to take over that crown. that of course, would be the knickerbockers. >> of new york. >> with jalen brunson as dan knows playing point guard. >> yeah but the celtics win.
5:42 pm
>> can i just say this i'm going to ask one question. and then do both of you guys can answer very quickly. >> simultaneously or. >> not simultaneously. are the mavs better off without luka? >> no way. yes. >> really? >> they didn't like. they didn't think he was. >> they don't like his dad bod. but guy, you. >> don't like his dad bod? yeah, i'm 61 years old, but i can rock a lot of things at 61. yeah, i can't drain it from three like luka. >> nobody can. >> on that note, dom. >> all right, guys, coming up on the show here, wall street and the calls that had wynn hitting blackjack. and then, of course, hims and hers shares thinning out, if you will. we've got the details on those trades coming up next when fast money returns after this. after this. >> i love.
5:43 pm
♪ empower ♪ so handsome. oh, i can't buy this. hang on there. actually, you can. your empower investment account has performed well. and this whole off-white-ish cantaloupe thingy is really working for you. so... so...? so... (♪♪) hot to trot! nobody says that, what? get good at money. so you can be a little bad. empower. >> is. it's not about looking like you've got it all together. it's about feeling like you do make our new sugar free. your everyday sidekick. own your
5:44 pm
ritual. your way with liquid. >> i've consumer. >> cellular is lowering the price for those 50 and up. get two unlimited lines for $30 each. that's just $60 a month. so switch to the carrier ranked number one in network coverage satisfaction. visit consumer cellular.com today. what if you could tackle your dog's itching, mushy poops and low energy? millions of pet parents are raving about doctor marty nature's blend. such a huge difference in her health. more energy, more playful. no more pooping issues. >> i'm doctor marty. i've been a veterinarian for more than 50 years. the dangerous ingredients added to many pet. foods could be impacting. >> your. >> dog's lifespan. that's why i formulated nature's blend. >> now you can feed your dog wholesome cuts of real meat, vegetables and fruit with no artificial preservatives or fillers. try doctor marty risk free. go to doctor marty pets.com. >> oh. >> hi, frank. hey, goldie. i'm looking for. >> those reports from yesterday. >> they're already on. >> your. >> desk, frank. >> of course they are.
5:45 pm
>> of course they are. >> easily isolate phone 7 million us businesses rely on tiktok to compete. within a week of posting, i had over $25,000 in sales. i don't have a million dollars to put towards marketing and branding. tiktok was the way and it saved my company. we had a video do really good this week. sales were up 29%. about 80% of my business right now is from tiktok. small businesses thrive on tiktok. tiktok brings in so much foot traffic. i need tiktok to keep growing. we have so much more work to do. updates, the latest headlines, a global perspective and high profile interviews. scan to watch cnbc's crypto world, sponsored by crypto.com. >> welcome back to fast money. we've got a pair of calls of the day for you. let's start with the casino operator, wynn resorts, continuing to climb after an upgrade by analysts at
5:46 pm
jefferies. the stock is up another 2.75% today after last week's earnings pop. analysts are raising the stock to a buy rating from neutral and upping their target price to 118 a share. that's about 30% upside from current levels. guy, do you believe the wynn resorts story? >> i do. i mean, if you look at this chart as well, i mean it has some ups and downs. but valuation if tim was here i'd say the same thing. it's just too cheap. now i understand why it sold off over the last year or so. some china scares, macau scares. but it's a valuation story here. so yeah $91. this stock to me should be easily back to the levels we saw. i want to say october 105. >> dan it's not just about valuations. in that note, if you believe the analysts they say that there are growth potentials for macau and for its u.s. properties for wynn as well. so it's not just valuation. there's a growth story. >> yeah focused on macau though. and we know that that's been a disproportionate amount of revenues over the last. call it ten years or so. and obviously vegas and some of the other areas in the us are going to be
5:47 pm
big growth areas if they can ever get it going. i think the macau issue is really speaks more to the chinese consumer. right. and so we've just seen obviously some of these names like didi and alibaba. maybe that has more to do with their cloud business and what they're doing with apple. but i think wynn and the rally here could keep on going the way that baba has. if we got some sense that there's going to be more stimulus for the us for the chinese consumer. so wind seems like a pretty decent one to play right here. >> all right. so that stock is up. meanwhile check out shares of hims and hers, that health company that recently red hot health company. its stock is down right now 3.5% after a downgrade from morgan stanley. analysts are cutting the stock to an equal weight or neutral, but upping their target price to 60 bucks to kind of catch it up. morgan stanley saying that the time. it's time for a breather. the stocks had a run so far this year. it's been pretty decent. even with today's pullback, the telehealth stock is still up a whopping 140%. so julie, is this a stock that you want to stick with or heed the call and just pull back? >> i think if you're going to if
5:48 pm
you're going to be sticking with it, you need to have be investing in tums while you're at it, because i think you're up for a pretty bumpy ride. it's not just that the fundamentals of this business are a little bit still to be figured out. part of it, too, is a regulatory issue. what will the trump administration's viewpoint on compounders be? will there still be, you know, a glp one shortage that enables them to continue to sell that business? we know that a lot of the growth is really being driven on the women's side, the herr's business. and so in order to kind of maintain that level of growth, you have to have confidence in both of those things. and i don't know if i necessarily do. and the problem is, is that you have a very high level of short interest. so i think regardless volatility is up ahead for this one. >> it also trades at 110 times forward earnings at this point right now. so carter what do you think about the charts on this one here. >> well extended right. i mean that's not very clever in terms of a comment, but it's more extended than it's been at any time in the past 3 or 5 years.
5:49 pm
there's some 150% above the 150 day moving average. it's also, to julie's point, very volatile. it's had count them four instances where it's dropped more than 35% in the past year and a half. and that's the exact kind of thing that happens here when you're this far above trend. >> all right. that's the story for hims and hers. and wynn coming up on the show a technical take on overseas investing. what the chart master sees for opportunities outside of america. that's coming up next. and here's a sneak peek at the cramer cam. jim's chatting right now exclusively with the ceo of electronics manufacturer jabil. catch that full interview at the top of the hour on mad money with jim cramer. we got more fast money in two minutes time. >> it's not if the markets will turn. it's when at howard capital. >> management, our proprietary family of funds, actively. >> navigates complex market landscapes while. seeking to safeguard your tomorrow. >> we aim to empower.
5:50 pm
>> investors, delivering. >> opportunities with a tactical. >> mathematical approach. >> start investing with confidence today. contact your. >> financial advisor. >> and see how howard. >> capital management. >> can. >> redefine your fund experience. >> we empower. >> those who act. >> those who. >> see the correlation. >> between predictability and probability. >> those who manage. >> risk by anticipating. >> each movement. >> flawless execution. timing and accuracy. >> identify the goal. >> match power with precision. reach new heights for cme group. >> where risk meets opportunity. this is. >> a landfill. >> or this. >> w.m is transformed. what you think of. >> as landfills. >> into. >> engineering marvels. >> that can. >> generate energy. >> while helping. protect the
5:51 pm
natural environment. >> learn more about our. >> modern landfills and how. >> w.m is always. >> working for. a sustainable. >> tomorrow at. >> get vested. >> join the club. >> one of the key benefits for me is knowing where jim is going to buy or sell. >> if he doesn't. >> join the club, new members save with a special offer for you think those phone guys will ever figure out
5:52 pm
how to keep 5g home internet from slowing down during peak hours? their customers have to share a wireless signal with everyone in their area. oooh. you know, it's kinda like when you bring a really big cake for your birthday, and then there's only a little, tiny sliver left for the birthday girl. aw. well, wish her a happy birthday. happy birthday... -it's... ...to her. -no, it's me. have your cake and eat it, too. don't settle for t-mobile or verizon 5g home internet. get super fast xfinity internet you don't have to share. forty's going to be my year. are outpacing america. believe it or not, this year the msci world index is up 5% in 2025. the stoxx 600 in europe is up nearly 10%. so is it time to broaden your portfolio overseas? let's turn now to the chart master for a lesson in the technicals global edition. carter. >> the dax is up even more than that with sap being the bigger biggest contributor. let's go
5:53 pm
right to the charts and try to look at the relationship between the world and the world without the us. so these are very straightforward colors and straightforward lines. one is the msci all country world index and the other in orange is the all country world index. but you strip out the us stocks, the big heavy winners. and so you'll see here since inception of the indices back in the late 80s this is almost a four bagger. now this is the same chart but depicted as a ratio chart. and what it shows of course is that the msci ex the us has been underperforming since zero nine low, but it did outperform in 2001 to 2007. so let's go right to the here and now chart. so this is since zero nine. and it's straight down. it's a perfect 45 down into the right. it is the underperformance of the world index ex the us versus the world index itself which of course includes the us. i've
5:54 pm
drawn an up arrow there. i think we're going to go to the upper band of that down channel. and then one more iteration just to put it together. we have ricocheted nicely off the bottom, off the top, off the bottom. and on this last go, we undercut the lower band for the first time. and then finally one index or one bourse. this is the indian stock exchange, the sensex. it is down to support down some 1,518%. i think you play for a bounce here. >> okay. there is a world in charts. >> you speak portuguese. >> i do not speak. >> portuguese, neither do i. >> obrigado. >> that's what you're saying? >> yes to the bomb. >> put up n e w z chart and this one's two to bayern. and i'll tell you this. dan helped me with the name. because you remember these things. we're at the connections conference. a gentleman sat next to me was talking. >> escobar? >> yes, general. yeah. atlantic. and he talked. i asked him about the e w z and he said, completely undervalued. look at what that stock has done or that etf has done since. and we are on the verge of breaking out of a 17 year downtrend. so if you
5:55 pm
want to be one place it's e w z there dom. >> what do you think dan. >> you know it's a tough one. and i think martin escobar said this like it's about transparency. it's a tough one there. they have a lot of the political headwinds there. they have inflationary issues. sometimes they get hyper inflationary. i mean this is not particularly interesting to me. i'd probably look at the e.m, it's got chinese exposure. it's got a bunch of other exposure, you know, in and around south america and the like. so to me e.m. is more interesting than w z. >> all right. and what about carter? last word to you. the germany trade. it's intriguing. >> yes. again that is the big constituent within the stoxx 600 europe. and sap is what's driving that. of course it's the big tech name. but the relationship between the dax and the stoxx 600, it's fairly stretched i think one fades sap and by inference is underway. germany here relative to the rest of europe. >> all right. there's the global take there. thanks everybody. coming up next your final trade. so keep it right here.
5:56 pm
>> next. >> if the. >> market is becoming more skeptical. >> about these types of massive ai investments. >> and even punishing. companies that commit to that type of spending, then maybe the hyperscalers will start dialing back their. back their. >> hardware investments. business. it's not a nine-to-five proposition. it's all day and into the night. it's all the things that keep this world turning. it's the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. trust. hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. powering more businesses than anyone. powering possibilities. at ameriprise financial we know our clients are so much more than clients. they're conquerors and champions, parents and caretakers, believers and breadwinners.
5:57 pm
the goals that matter most to you matter most to us. helping you achieve them is what we do best. with personal financial advice from an advisor you can trust, and goal-based investing in solutions. it's no wonder we have a 4.9 out of five client satisfaction rating. ameriprise financial advice worth talking about. (vo) what does it mean to be rich? out of five client satisfaction rating. maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic. rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. and also send them away. rich is living life your way. and having someone who can help you get there. the key to being rich is knowing what counts.
5:58 pm
(♪♪) car, this isn't the way home. that's right james, it isn't. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com economy. perhaps they need to call it something else. >> at interactive brokers, independent rias work with the best research and trading. >> tools designed. >> to help them outperform the
5:59 pm
markets. meet them at interactive. brokers investors marketplace for advisors advisors at. >> interactive brokers. keep all they earn on our low cost. >> platform with no ticket fees or custody charges. low margin rates and high interest earned on idle cash to get better results. get a better platform. the best informed investors choose interactive brokers. >> final trade is sponsored by interactive brokers. the best informed investors choose interactive brokers. >> all right. it's about that time. it's final trades go around the horn. julie, starting with you. >> celsius. well, i think the bad news is past us. and for long term investors, could be a good one. >> all right. carter. >> silver lagging gold. but its time is now. we think it breaks out here. >> ooh! hi ho! silver. dan. >> yeah? if you like china, you like e.m. top three holdings taiwan. semi guys. be in the tube. that would be the alibaba
6:00 pm
ten cent this one e.m. >> all right. gidami. >> shout out to mark cuban who doesn't have a dad bod bod. >> he's also a fan of the show. >> you're going to run this bleep back tomorrow with you. >> we're going to run. >> it back. >> here we are. let's do it. j and j. >> all right. thanks everybody for watching fast money. mad money with jim cramer starts right now. we'll see you guys tomorrow here. >> my mission is. >> simple to make you money. i'm here to. >> level the. >> playing field for. >> all investors. >> there's always. >> a bull market somewhere. >> and i promise to. >> help you find it. mad money starts now. hey i'm cramer. >> welcome to mad money. >> welcome to cramer. helping my friends. i'm trying to make a. >> little money. >> my job is to entertain educate and teach me at one 807 43 cnbc or tweet me jimcramer. now you may think of the nfl's big game as a contest among great teams in the gridiron test of wills with only one winner for the lombardi trophy. you know i feel about that. yet i'ml
0 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
CNBCUploaded by TV Archive on
