work every. >> day and go someplace where i could grow. >> learn and engage. >> cnbc viewers. >> are definitely ambitious, and i think most of them see their money as a tool, a way to pursue their dreams and pursue their goals. i hope to always be a clear, accurate and investable. >> voice for all of our viewers. >> you learn. >> a lot here at cnbc. it's also a lot of fun. >> it is. >> 5:00 am here at cnbc global headquarters. welcome to worldwide exchange. here is your five at five. president trump lays out new tariff threats for three critical industries. the date to watch april 2nd. those sectors they are reacting. this morning. investors are. >> doing. >> their best to take. >> the president's comments. >> in stride. the s&p actually coming off an all time high. however housing stocks there under pressure. red arrows as trump's trade agenda puts that group on alert. plus we're going to dig into gold's record run. and elon musk looking to raise money for x. and he wants. >> fair value. >> it is wednesday, february 19th, 2025. you're watching worldwide exchange. >> right here on cnbc.

>> good morning. thank you so much for. >> being here with us. >> i am frank hollins. get you ready for the trade day ahead. we begin this morning. >> with the s&p and the. >> nasdaq 100 coming off record highs. the dow just 1% away. take a look at futures right now. you can see we're in the green across the board but just fractionally higher across the board. these moves we're seeing right here they come after the president. he announced a new set of tariff proposals possibly coming on april 2nd. these tariffs will be on cars pharmaceuticals and chip imports. and they could start at 25%. but the president said that would likely only be the beginning. >> it will be in the neighborhood of 25%. >> conductors and pharmaceuticals. >> it will be 25% and higher, and it will go very substantially higher over the course of a year. but we want to give them time to come in because, as you know, when they come into the united states and they have their plant or factory here, there is no tariff. so we

want to give them a little bit of a chance. >> and on the back of the president's comments, we want to take a look at asian automakers. take a look right here. the top three. these are all japanese automakers. you can see they're down between 1 and 3 quarters of 1%. about 2.25% again in the red when it comes to these japanese automakers right down here. this is hyundai. actually those shares up one and three quarters of 1%. so south korea and the us they actually have what a lot of people would call a favorable trade agreement. tariffs on us imports less than 1% in aggregate when it comes to south korea. also we want to look at european autos that sector a bit more impact. you can see right across the board here volkswagen, one of the biggest carmakers in the us in the world. excuse me. down more than 1%. bmw mercedes down as well volvo down over a half a percent. and a look at european pharmaceutical makers this morning. taking a look we're kind of seeing actually these these companies in the green just fractionally higher with the exception of novo nordisk those shares up 1%. but novartis, astrazeneca and sanofi all up just fractionally right now in the premarket. no change

when it comes to glaxosmithkline global chip makers. different reaction there. you can take a look. you can see actually a bit of a mixed reaction. it was lower across the board earlier this morning. we're seeing samsung again, a south korean chip maker, up about 3%, a 1% tariff on u.s. imports in south korea. taiwan semiconductor, one of largest contract manufacturers of chips, down more than 1%. different reactions here. we're looking at asml, nvidia and arm. arm actually down just about a quarter of 1%. want to take a quick check of the bond market this morning. we're seeing yields just tick up a bit there. the benchmark moving up just a few basis points. remember we have fed minutes coming up later today that could have an impact on the bond market. and a look at gold hitting a new record high yesterday. gold continues its move to the upside since the president's been in office. gold moving up almost 8% right now. you can see it's up about a half a percent a flight to safety here. also central bank buying of gold. couple of factors. we're looking at gold's move to the upside. and a quick check of energy this morning. oil and natural gas. we're seeing wti and brant crude both move up

about three quarters of 1%. natural gas actually just pulling back just about a quarter of 1% okay. that's your setup. now we want to check on the broader action in europe with our julianna tatelbaum. julianna. good morning frank. >> good morning. well, european equity investors seem to be taking those tariff headlines in stride that you just outlined. we're not seeing a whole lot of movement. the overall benchmark level the stoxx 600 teetering around the flat line from a regional perspective. you got a little bit of red on the board for the uk market. the cac40 in france also trading in the red this morning, but the xetra dax is about ten basis points higher and the ftse mid over in italy is up about 8/10 of a percent. we did get some new macro data out of the uk that's worth highlighting. inflation accelerated to 3% in january. that's the highest level in ten months and above economists expectations. now, as a result, traders have pared back bank of england easing expectations. but we've seen a muted reaction in forex markets. we are seeing continued demand for defense names in europe. they are lining

up a third straight day of gains, boosted by expectations that european countries will grow their spending under pressure from president trump. now, trade is top of the agenda for politicians here in europe. eu trade commissioner maros sefcovic is set to meet commerce secretary howard lutnick and other top economic officials in the administration today, with the eu looking to strike a deal with the president. leaders have floated ideas including buying more natural gas and weapons from the states and cutting duties on u.s. auto imports in a bid to avoid high tariff levels. so one to watch, frank. >> julianna, thank you very much. all right. turning back to the u.s. markets, u.s. investors just largely shrugging off president trump's latest tariff threat, apparently viewing it more as a negotiating tactic. let's now bring in ben edmunds, chief market strategist at strategic fortune wealth and a founder at fedwatch. ben, good morning. always good to see you. >> good morning frank. >> good to be back. >> all right. so ben, you, according to your notes, you see reciprocal tariffs is kind of bullish. you think that's okay for the markets. that's understandable. what do you think about this new round of

tariffs on autos pharmaceuticals and chips. what's your view on that. >> yeah i think. >> you. >> see. the adjustment you saw right. >> you outlined. >> it. really well. >> to see which sectors are kind. >> of underperforming in. >> the market. >> that's the. adjustment i think. >> but it's not as. >> significant if you would think of it. you know. >> you would think it would be a bigger selloff. >> for that matter if there's a negative real negative reaction. >> so i think what people are looking at is saying we're just. leveling these tariff rates towards one another. and it's that. other segment outline. >> there's actually. >> some progress on the other side of people. >> looking, in this case europe maybe bringing their tariffs. a little bit down. >> right. i think this is the. >> game that. >> we're equal. >> game that we're in. we're trying to negotiate. if we. >> decide. >> to bring the. tariffs actually down, i think that is what the bullish element. >> of it. >> is, why. >> these tariffs don't. >> matter so much to. >> markets at this point. >> all right. so they don't matter to the market so much at this point. but at the same time we are seeing a flight to safety at least when it comes to gold. what do you make of gold. just having a record run over the

last couple of weeks. and also you put out a note i kind of expanded on, if you don't mind, we're going to show the audience just the moves. since the inauguration, when it comes to the dollar and gold, the dollar down about 2%, gold moving up more than 7%. how should investors interpret this? >> well. >> gold has. >> always. >> been this safe haven in itself, like it's intangible asset. so it just gets that sort of. attention about investors looking. >> for diversification through a hard asset. >> like gold. >> and you could say it's for inflation. you could say it's for uncertainty. >> or you. >> could say it for geopolitics. >> either way. >> it gets that bit. >> it doesn't pay any. >> interest or any kind. >> right. it's just. >> a hard asset. >> but on the other hand. >> it's also about. >> just the fact that. we're in an environment where we don't know actually how. these negotiations exactly play out. so i think. >> that's a. >> big reason. >> why gold is up. >> i also. >> think it's. >> just because we. >> do deal with. >> some inflation coming through, and it was seen in. >> the uk and. >> what we saw last week in the us. so i think these two. >> combined were you know, uncertainty. >> and inflation. >> played a big role. so gold is here. it's probably. >> going to stay a bit elevated until we get to this phase.

>> where we get more clarity. >> on the stairs. >> all right. again you are also the founder of fed watch. let's talk about the fed. just a minute. fed minutes. they're coming up later today. what do you expect. and we continue to see people come on cnbc with jp morgan. last week it was morgan stanley yesterday saying they expect as many as two cuts this year. do you agree with that. and do you think the market needs those cuts to continue to move higher? >> i'm kind of in the camp of that. these cuts are at least in doubt. >> you know, of course the fed wants to lower rates because they want to do. that because they. >> see that as a. reason that they really want the inflation. against the inflation. sorry, won. >> the battle against inflation. >> but it's. >> not just happening. i think what waller said yesterday again was telling he was very bullish on. competition going in the right direction, but now he's kind. >> of changing his. >> mind of like, i'm. >> not so sure if this progress is really happening. >> i think that's the. >> big issue. >> for the. >> fed themselves. >> and i think this is. >> the debate in the minutes today. >> like how much. >> progress is really made. what do we need to do if that progress. >> stalls. >> if worse, if it starts to change into higher inflation. >> you know, they would have to

find out the communication to reverse course ultimately from a neutral to a tightening stance, which, by the. >> way, not priced in the market at all. so think about the point here where the market. >> still cuts. >> things says like. >> yes, that could be. >> but it's doubtful. >> at this moment. >> okay. so you're doubting any cuts coming up later this year. with that in mind, are there certain sectors that that changes your view on? again, we started the year thinking 1 to 2. you don't think we're going to get any. does it change your view on financials materials industrials or some other part of the market? >> well i. >> mean. >> the market itself like you know the market feels like cuts or no cuts. there seems. >> to be a rotation ongoing. >> and you know, you could tell from the performance. of the big. >> tech companies. >> relative to these other sectors that you mentioned. >> the gap. >> is starting to widen a bit. you can even see it in the value indices in the russell. they're outperforming relative. >> to tech. and i think that's an indication. >> of investors continue. >> to seek diversification movement away from the concentration. >> risk of the market against the fact that we are in a strong economy. keep rotating to.

>> opportunities where. >> the. value is better. >> all right, ben emons, always great to see you. thank you very much. >> thank you, thank you. >> got more to come here on worldwide exchange, including an under the radar banking play that one farm manager says is primed for a breakout. but first, a real estate reckoning. and while the california wildfires, they could have serious ripple effects on affordability across the entire us. plus, details on a new acronym for the retail trade, it's rift, and what it could mean for earnings from major retailers like walmart and home depot. and then later, tim cook teasing apple's next big thing. we have a very busy hour still we have a very busy hour still ahead on worldwide exchange. gold bond believes touch says everything. it says... i got you. and i'm never letting go. ever. gold bond. get in touch with irresistibly touchable skin.

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>> and get paid when. >> you say. >> welcome back to worldwide exchange. it is still too soon to fully calculate the cost of the california wildfires, but one thing is clear the cost of insurance will go up, and that will affect not just the value of los angeles real estate, but real estate all across the us. our diana olick explains in our continuing series on the rising risk to the economy from climate change. >> the losses from the california wildfires may seem unimaginable now, but they were already part of a calculation that climate risk experts have been modeling recently as they attempt to measure the effects of climate change on home values. so you're saying that at least 20% of us homes are going to be devalued in some way because of climate change?

>> and that's correct. >> dave burt was one of the few to predict the risks in the subprime mortgage market over a decade ago, and he made a lot of money betting against those risky loans. he sees a similar pattern emerging now with climate change as a growing climate risk forces the insurance industry to reprice. higher. home values will drop because when the cost of owning a home rises, its value falls. >> in the past. >> insurers have. >> not increased. >> prices. >> because of. >> these increasing weather events. >> that's all. >> falling apart now. >> the correction, he says, will be severe. >> we think that those 20% of markets could be down 30% over the next five years. >> in value. >> in value, which is very similar to the 2007 to 2012 great recession experience. >> and he's not alone. this at treasury secretary besson's confirmation hearing. >> i think. >> that the.

>> most immediate danger of. a major economic. >> collapse is going to come. >> through the. insurance industry. >> where you can't get. >> mortgages. >> you can't sell properties. >> that value. >> bert's prediction covers certain areas over the next five years, but others say the risk is much broader. by 2055, 84% of all u.s. homes may see some drop in value, totaling $1.47 trillion in losses, according to a new analysis by first street, a climate risk firm. >> growing climate related disaster risk has accelerated much more rapidly. >> ben keys is a professor of real estate and finance at the wharton school. >> that's going to accelerate. >> the process. >> of a. >> revaluation, where there's a disconnect between buyers and sellers, and ultimately assets are going to have to find a new equilibrium in order to clear the market. >> and foreclosures add to that. after hurricane sandy in 2012, foreclosures rose by 46%. and after the 2008 floods in ames,

iowa, they jumped 144%. the mortgage market is not unaware of these rising risks. fannie mae declined an interview request for this story, but we spoke with their chief climate officer two years ago on the same subject as the mortgage giant was beginning to study climate risk in underwriting. >> the amount of. >> climate change. >> is not necessarily always. priced into the. >> market, and consumers. >> aren't really. >> aware of. >> what that's going to do. to insurance premiums going forward. the decisions. >> that fannie and freddie make are guiding the mortgage market away from pricing climate risks directly. >> and in the meantime, dave bert is betting again. >> that can. >> be either avoiding. >> the most at risk securities. >> it can. >> also be hedging with mortgage. >> credit derivatives. >> rising insurance costs will be the main factor in home price declines, but not the only one. some communities might increase

taxes to pay for resilience measures. maintenance and energy costs may also go up. and despite all of this, last friday, the trump administration ordered fema staff to stop immediately implementation of the federal flood risk management standard. now, this standard ensures that public buildings, including schools, as well as bridges, roads, utilities and other infrastructure that are damaged in a flood would result, would be rebuilt to less vulnerable standards to future flooding, but that it goes entirely away. frank. >> i mean, diana, such great reporting, such an important story to so many people in our audience, anybody who's a homeowner. i have a question for you. and i know it's too early to really know the impact on home values in la, but are we seeing any impacts anywhere else right now from the storm damage there? >> well, you know, we have very low foreclosure and delinquency rates across the nation. but the one place where they are going up very significantly asheville, north carolina. you remember those terrible floods we saw

back last fall? well, three months later, you're seeing delinquencies, which is the first stage of foreclosures go up very significantly there, frank. >> all right. diana olick with rising risks. again, a very important story to so many people in our audience, especially the homeowners. diana, thank you so much. worldwide exchange, the one sector that's still licking its wounds from that deep sea selloff. we'll have the story coming up right after this break. >> the number of public companies is shrinking. while the number of private companies is increasing. at franklin templeton, we are expanding access to the growing opportunity in private markets, offering the potential for greater diversification and enhanced returns through our world class specialist investment managers. we are empowering advisors with solutions to build the portfolios of the future today. portfolios of the future today. alternatives by franklin [sofi mnemonic] can a personal loan unlock your ambitions? oh yeah.

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>> welcome back. >> to worldwide exchange. many of the tech stocks hit hard by the deep sea threat. they've largely bounced back from those losses. but one part of the trade that remains under pressure. our pippa stevens is here with much, much more on that story. pippa. good morning. good to see you. >> good morning frank. >> we are talking about. >> the power stocks, specifically independent power producers with nuclear assets, which are seen. >> as big. >> beneficiaries of energy. >> guzzling i. >> the group was. >> among the hardest hit from the deep. >> sea. >> sell off on. >> january 27th, with constellation. >> talent and vistra. >> all falling more. >> than 20%. >> on. >> the day. now. >> since then. >> a. larger basket of ai. >> related stocks. >> including micron, supermicro, cisco, meta, and palo alto

networks has rebounded. >> an average. >> of. >> 2%. >> while. >> constellation. >> vistra and. >> fellow nuclear. >> owner nrg. >> are still. >> in the red. >> when it. >> comes to. >> tech, some investors have been assuaged. >> by robust. >> capital spending plans. but for power stocks, which had a big run last year, the tailwinds. >> are less clear. >> barclays saying the. >> partial recovery in. >> power stocks suggests investors feel bruised by the deep tech episode, and are likely to be on the lookout for another. ai related. shock down. >> the road. >> still, while deep scan, more energy efficient ai might shave off some of the high end. >> estimates for. >> how much power. >> will be. >> needed, power is still growing. >> and. >> not just from ai. while it's an important. >> part of the. >> growth story, there's also reshoring and electrification. >> frank. >> so, pippa, any upcoming events or catalysts for power stocks that could potentially reignite this rally? >> so we do hear from vistra and talen next week. and so we'll hear the latest on how they're thinking.

>> about the potential. >> threat from deep sea, as well. >> as the enormous opportunity from ai. >> more broadly. but i think right. >> now. >> frank, the market. >> is. >> looking for another one of these big. partnerships to be signed. we, of course, had talent and susquehanna and amazon and then of course, constellation and microsoft to bring the crane. energy center back online. and so those. really kind of jolted some optimism. >> into the market. >> but we haven't seen one for a few months now. so that i think is top of mind for investors. >> yeah. you just never know. i mean, deep sea came out of nowhere, so you really never know. pippa stevens, great reporting as always. good to see you. all right. as we head to break, we are watching shares of intel in the premarket. you can see it's down just about 2%. this follows yesterday's 16% pop on reports that broadcom and taiwan semi. they were potentially weighing independent deals to split up the company. with yesterday's gains the stock is now up 29% on the year following a 60% slide in 2024. following a 60% slide in 2024. we're back right after this ♪♪

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>> that was kane anderson rudnick julie biel on fast money last night giving a lay of the land on housing after the latest homebuilder sentiment figure really hammered stocks in that space. those shares under pressure once again this morning as president trump's tariffs create new concerns for the sector. welcome back to worldwide exchange i'm frank collin coming up this half an hour. the key number one analyst. the key that number one analysts say could be the real driver for housing's next steps this year. but we begin this half an hour with a look at the s&p. and excuse me the market with the s&p on the nasdaq 100 coming off record highs. the dow just 1% away from its own record. take a look at futures. you can see a bit of a move to the downside when it comes to the futures. all three indices were green earlier. now all three are fractionally lower. looks like the dow would open about 14 points lower. this action coming after president trump announced a new set of proposed tariffs on cars, pharmaceuticals and chip imports that could potentially start on april 2nd at 25%. but the president said that could only be the beginning. >> it will be in the neighborhood of 25%. >> semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.

>> it'll be. >> 25% and higher, and it will go very substantially higher over the course of a year. but we want to give them time to come in because, as you know, when they come into the united states and they have their plant or factory here, there is no tariff. so we want to give them a little bit of a chance. >> and on the back of the president's comments, we are seeing reaction from asian automakers. let's start with the japanese automakers. these three right here at the top you can see all three are moving lower. we're talking toyota honda and nissan. hyundai. however you can see shares moving one and three quarters of 1% higher. south korea and the us they have what a lot of people would call a favorable trade agreement. aggregate tariffs of u.s. imports into south korea less than 1%. we also look at european autos this morning. take a look at the reaction there. you're seeing red across the board here. volkswagen one of the biggest auto makers in the world. those shares down more than 1.25% bmw mercedes and volvo again all four of these in the red one to take a european pharmaceutical makers as well. this morning taking a look we saw a bit of a mixed reaction earlier. similar picture right now. novo nordisk those shares

up about 1%. novartis, astrazeneca and glaxosmithkline. just fractional declines right here as you can see. and a look at global chip makers. we're seeing also kind of a mixed reaction there. so you see nvidia shares actually popping a bit right now up a quarter of a percent. while taiwan semi asml those shares down fractionally for asml taiwan semi down almost 1%. samsung electronics you're going to see a theme here. it's a korean chip maker shares up 3%. again favorable trade agreement with the us and south korea. okay we want to check the bond market as well this morning. treasuries. you can see the benchmark yields just ticking up a bit right now at 4.56 moving a bit higher. we get fed minutes later today. that could have an impact on the bond market as well. and a look at gold. gold hitting another record. take a look at this chart right here. you can see since the president took office shares of excuse me gold actually moving almost 8% higher right now. up about a half a percent. big upside move for gold. a lot of central bank buying. another factor when it comes to the upside move for

gold. and we look at the energy markets both oil and natural gas. taking a look at oil right now. you can see oil moving higher since we last checked. wti and brant crude both up just about 1%. natural gas moving lower now down about a half a percent okay. that is your setup. now we want to move to our big money movers. three big stock stories this morning. plus we got a bonus one for you. let's start off with shares of bumble. they're sliding right now. the dating app is forecasting first quarter sales below analyst estimates. you can see shares are down more than 15%. the company also reporting lower fourth quarter revenue with a hit from currency headwinds. although sales were above expectations. bumble is adding more users, but they're spending less on average. again shares down more than 15%. bill ackman raising his takeover bid for howard hughes, promising to turn the company into a modern day berkshire hathaway. you can see shares of howard hughes right now down about 4.5%. ackman says his firm, pershing square, is offering to buy 10 million new howard hughes shares for $90 each. that's up from his previous bid of $85. if this deal goes through, pershing

square will own 48% of the real estate developer. the stock falling in extended trading after running up just about 7% yesterday. again, shares down about 4.5%. also looking at apple, it's expected to announce a new version of the iphone se today. that's a lower cost device that could help boost sales all around the world. the current se model starts at around $429, but it hasn't been updated since 2022. shares of apple right now just fractionally lower. cook posting on x last week about a product announcement, saying get ready to meet the newest member of the family. and last but not least, we got a bonus big money mover for you this morning. meta. yesterday, it snapped its 20 day win streak, closing down 2% on the day. you can see right now. meta shares just fractionally lower in the pre-market. important to note, though, meta shares are still up more than 17% since that run kicked off just about a month ago. all right. shifting gears earnings season kicks off for the retailers this week with walmart's results out tomorrow. the big box stores they're largely expected to confirm the holiday shopping season was

solid. but a recent report from d.a. davidson says there are several looming risks that could put retailers that could push retailers take a bit of a cautious approach in 2025. joining me now is michael baker, senior research analyst at d.a. davidson. michael, good morning. good to see you. >> hi. >> how are you, frank? >> all right. so michael, you're actually introducing a new acronym. we teased it earlier. it's rift. explain to us what this new acronym stands for. >> right. >> that is rates. >> inflation fx. >> and tariffs. >> these are the policy. >> risks that we. think retailers. >> will talk about. >> when they give their 2025 guidance. we expect that most. >> retailers will give. >> a. >> cautious outlook. now as you said we. >> do think. >> it. >> was a good. >> holiday, but we. >> think it. >> behooves retailers. >> to set a relatively low bar for. >> 2025. >> especially given. >> the policy. >> risks or risks that we see. >> next year. so we think we'll have a good fourth quarter but cautious. >> guidance again with. >> retailers citing. >> some of these concerns. >> all right. so there's a rift risk in the retail trade right now. and at the same time we have walmart earnings coming up.

but going into earnings you actually raised your price target. you raised it up to 117. consensus on the street's 108. if you're seeing so much risk why are you raising your price target when it comes to walmart. >> right. well walmart. >> we think is poised. >> to. >> take advantage of some of this this disruption. for instance, if. >> tariffs are going to be. >> pushed through. >> to consumers. >> walmart is a way for those. >> consumers to. >> save money. >> that's really been the key to walmart's story, is. >> their. >> ability to. >> save consumers. >> money. >> but also. time as. >> they've been investing in convenience. >> they're in this. >> unique position. >> right now where they've. >> been. >> able to lower. >> price, to drive market. >> share, while still. >> raising their. >> margins because of. >> some of the investments that they're making in what they call their alternative businesses. things like. >> walmart marketplace. >> walmart connect, which is their advertising. business that's helping raise margins while giving them the ability, again, to invest in price to drive market share, not only for low income customers, which has always been their bread and butter, but 75% of their share gains are coming from higher income customers who make

$100,000 or more for the household incomes. >> all right. i want to go back to that rift risk for a second. in your in your new note you highlight for major retailers, we're talking costco walmart, autozone, home depot, best buy some of these big box stores. how much of their sales they get outside of the us. is that meaningful right now? i mean, with this trade war going on, these tariff threats, do you think that's going to shift consumer spending when it comes to markets outside of the us? >> not really. no. the issue there really is that retailers that make money overseas, when that money when those dollars are translated. >> back. >> they're worth less in an environment of. >> a stronger dollar. and so we have seen a lot of companies. lower the guidance or at least give conservative guidance because. >> of the pressure on. >> the dollar. as it turns out, retail actually has a little bit less exposure there than others in the hard line broadline space that i cover. costco is most exposed a little bit more than 25% of their business overseas. walmart next at about 18%. most of the other retailers, the big box retailers don't really have

that much overseas risk. so again, in that sense, we do think fx is a risk for the economy in general and for a lot of companies. but for retail. >> it's actually. >> probably a little bit less than other areas. >> all right. so michael, a lot of uncertainty in the market right now, a lot of questions about volatility and other things as we go into the retail earnings season with again walmart kicking it off with your top pick in the retail space. >> walmart has been. one that we. >> like a couple other names more in the mid. >> cap range. >> bj's wholesale club they're sort of catching costco. costco we know is one of the best retailers out there. bj's getting better and catching up. and actually the stock's up about 18% year to date. one of the top performance performers. another name we've liked is dick's sporting goods. again a little bit on the smaller side but but taking share in just a much better company. today than they were pre pandemic and one that we think still has a lot of momentum in front of them. >> all right michael baker always great to see you. thank you very much. >> thank you. >> all right. coming up on worldwide exchange a very bullish view on cyber ark. while bank of america really believes in the security company. we'll

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wells fargo, citing goldman's better than expected margins in all three of its business lines. and bank of america out with a big price target hike on cyberark software, moving it from $355 up to $500 believes the company is well positioned to capture opportunities in the security space, giving it given its variety of offerings. all right, coming up here on the show, the one word that every investor has to hear today and the stock pick that every investor needs to know. plus terror fears hammer the housing sector home builders under pressure once again this morning. the key number our next guest says could breathe some new life into the space. we'll new life into the space. we'll be right back after this. 5k fun run! say hi to patty. celebrated social worker... whose coming in second? self-appointed social chair. hmmmm. potluck. kickball. “last call”. sign up for goat yoga! you name it, she's on it. and you have 47 emails to prove it. but her capacity to care is unmatched. you need patty. patty needs a retirement plan. work with principal so we can help you help patty with a retirement and benefits plan

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>> and welcome back to worldwide exchange. we're watching toll brothers shares this morning. shares are dropping after the homebuilder reported first quarter results that missed estimates. you can see shares are down almost 6% right now. deliveries and new home orders also falling short of estimates. toll brothers ceo says demand was solid in the quarter, but affordability issues and growing issues in certain markets are pressuring sales, especially at the lower end. again, shares of toll brothers down nearly 6%. well, toll brothers among the stocks hit hard yesterday on the latest homebuilder sentiment data, falling to its lowest level in five months. the drop largely being fueled by concerns over tariffs, which could raise homebuilder costs significantly. other homebuilders like d.r. horton, lennar, pultegroup, taylor morrison and kb home falling between a half a percent all the way down to 2%. take a look at the stocks ahead of the open. you can see in the red across the board right now. kb homes still down nearly 2%

taylor morrison down about you know fractionally less than a quarter percent. but pultegroup down about one and three quarters of 1% for much more. let's bring in logan mohtashemi lead analyst at housingwire. logan good morning. always good to see you here. all right. so i know you're really an expert on the housing market, but i do have to ask you a question about some of this tariff concern when it comes to these homebuilder stocks. i'm looking at with the nahb, the national association of home builders put out. they said about a third of appliances and a third of about of softwood are just under a third comes from outside the us. softwood lumber, by the way, for people who don't know, that's like fir, spruce, pine, etc. why can't these homebuilders, why can't they just replace their sourcing source here in the us and reduce some of this issue. we have, like the. >> sawmills and. the setup. to deliver as. >> much lumber in this country. now currently. >> and when we think about the builder survey that's tilted to smaller builders, they don't have the corporate profit. >> margins as the. >> bigger publicly traded builders do. >> so on top of higher rates, if you add tariffs into.

>> the mix, we're. >> going to get a hit on margins, especially for the smaller builders. >> i think that. >> that was. >> the issue. >> in the survey yesterday. but if mortgage rates. >> were down at. >> 6%. >> i think. >> this issue with the builders comes a little bit lower in terms of. >> the stress. however, higher. mortgage rates. >> higher supply, especially in the south. >> and then you add. >> tariffs on to the mix. no i think the builders survey going out. >> six months has. >> collapsed in the last two months. >> and one of. >> the faster. >> fashions we've seen in the last 20 years. >> so what is going on with the mortgage market? i was just looking at mortgage news daily. we're showing their stats right here. back in september, rates were pretty close to 6%, about six and a quarter. now we're back above 7%. what is going on? we had the fed cut rates. a lot of people were expecting more rates coming up. more rate cuts i should say coming up later this year. do you think that's going to be the cure for what we're seeing in the housing market? >> we had about a 2% move from the. >> peak with. >> no rate cuts. and then the. >> economic data started. >> to get better. >> fed policy. if we're looking

at it for housing. >> is still very restrictive. the market was anticipating weaker economic data. it didn't get it. once the. >> data started to. >> firm up, bond. >> yields went up. that's actually. >> pretty normal. >> to me. either the labor market has to break, or you need about one more percent of rate cuts to. >> kind of get. that trend lower, to maybe get down to. 6% easier. >> we've only seen. >> the housing data. >> start to improve when. >> mortgage rates get. >> down. >> towards 6%. >> but the labor market isn't breaking. >> it's getting softer. >> so currently right now. >> the housing market still we're going into the fourth year of the lowest home sales ever. when you adjusted to the workforce, the builders. >> though, have a different problem. >> supply is rising, especially in the south. if you don't have. >> the high corporate. >> profit margins, you can't pay down the rates. so it's more problematic for them this year than i would say the last two years. >> you know, it's interesting. so you're saying if we see continued weakness in the in the job market, that's going to somehow help the housing market. but we just heard from one of

the builders. one of the issues is affordability on the low end. so if we see weakness in the housing market, isn't it just going to impact that low end consumer even more? >> it's over 162. >> million. >> people working when mortgage rates. >> go lower. >> the people. >> that traditionally. >> buy homes tend to be more employed than than those that don't. so the. >> rate the rate variable matters more. >> and we saw that during covid there's 20 to 30 million people unemployed. there's 5 million in forbearance mortgage rates. >> as soon as people. >> thought they're going to be living again. >> the rate. >> variable, even with 30 million people off the grid, demand picked up like this. >> so we're at record. >> low levels of sales in the existing home sales market. however, the new home sales market. >> is still at 2019. >> levels, so it has a little bit of a higher bar to work with. but when. >> i. >> think about the new home sales sector, it typically does better when rates are. >> at. >> 6%, because if the builders do need to pay down rates as they have to make rates sub 6%, they can do that where the existing home sales doesn't. the tariff issue. >> again, is just another. >> layer of concern going into

2025. >> all right. so coming up today we get housing starts and building permits data. friday we get existing home sales number. what are you expecting when it comes to those reports. what do you see the impact being specifically to the stocks and sentiment in the industry? >> i think you have. >> to look. at where housing permits are going, especially single family permits going out for the next 12 months. typically when the builder. >> survey starts. >> to get weaker, single family permits. >> tend to fall. >> they had been picking up when rates fell last year, so that's something to keep an eye out, especially for the rest of this year. we're finishing a lot of projects that we started two years ago for the housing starts data, the existing home sales report will be down just a tad month to month. again, record low levels of sales. we're not going anywhere in that marketplace, so keep an eye on permits and units completed. i think that's going to be the story for 2025, because every economic cycle we've seen outside of covid, residential construction workers tend to lose their jobs first. before the recession, the employment levels are still very elevated

for the construction workers. that's the wild card for me in 2025. >> all right, logan, great to see you as always. thank you very much. all coming up here on worldwide exchange. the fintech player our next guest says could benefit from big from benefit big, i should say from new deregulation efforts that came up nearly 6% so far this year. we're going to reveal our mystery chart coming up right after the break. if you haven't already, you should follow our podcast. if you missed worldwide exchange, check us out on apple, spotify or other podcast apps. much more coming up right after this. >> welcome to. >> reinvented with accenture. today i'm here. >> with margarita. >> della valle, ceo of vodafone. you were employee 25. >> and. >> vodafone italy. today you're the ceo. >> of vodafone. >> what is your. >> strategy and. >> vision for the future? >> we are changing our culture to really. >> focus on our customers. >> we need to. >> acknowledge that. >> change is hard, but if people understand it's for the.

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you think those phone guys will ever figure out how to keep 5g home internet from slowing down during peak hours? their customers have to share a wireless signal with everyone in their area. oooh. you know, it's kinda like when you bring a really big cake for your birthday, and then there's only a little, tiny sliver left for the birthday girl. aw. well, wish her a happy birthday. happy birthday... -it's... ...to her. -no, it's me. have your cake and eat it, too. don't settle for t-mobile or verizon 5g home internet. get super fast xfinity internet you don't have to share. forty's going to be my year. 800. >> 687 6099. >> the day's top stories. >> driving wall street. brian sullivan joins kelly evans. power lunch, weekdays two eastern, cnbc. >> get invested. join the club. >> he makes. >> the complex simple. >> and not to. >> make irrational decisions. return on investment for the. club pays for itself. >> join the club. new members save with a special offer for a limited time at cnbc.com. terms and restrictions apply.

>> every day. >> i'm reading extensively. >> i'm checking the. >> markets throughout the trading session, working the phones, talking to sources and doing my own reporting to share insights, information and all of the details that you need to be able to make money. >> welcome back to worldwide exchange. as we close in on the 6:00 hour, here's a check on a few big stories that we're following this morning. japan weighing retaliatory action against the us following president trump's latest tariff threat, calling for 25% tariffs on auto imports into the us, japan says it is carefully examining the details of trump's comments and will respond appropriately. autos make up the largest component of japan's exports, with the us being its number one market. the senate confirming howard lutnick is the next commerce secretary with a 51 to 45 vote. president trump has tasked with leading his tariff and trade agenda. elon musk's x social media platform is reportedly working on a new funding round that would value the company at $44 billion. that's the same price you pay for the company back in 2022.

pokemon go creator niantic is reportedly in talks to sell its video game business to saudi owned scopely for $3.5 billion. niantic has been struggling to make a repeat hit, has been forced to cut staff and cancel new game titles. citigroup boosting ceo jane fraser's total compensation to $34.5 million last year. that's up 33% from a year ago as she continues to revamp bank's operations. just over 11.5 million of her new compensation is in the form of deferred stock and watching shares of hsbc. the bank reporting an annual pretax profit of $32.3 billion. that was below analysts estimates. hsbc adds it will buy up buy back up to $2 billion in shares. all right. turning back to the u.s. market. stocks there holding steady today after the s&p 500 and the nasdaq 100. they both hit record highs yesterday. taking a look at futures. we've seen futures turn to the downside during the hour. all three indices in the red. looks like the dow would open about 65 points lower. joining me now is nimrit kang, chief investment officer and senior portfolio

manager at northstar asset management. nimrit good morning. good to see you. >> good to see you, frank. >> so nimrit just seeing the futures turn to the red over the last hour. what do you make of that? >> we expect a lot of choppiness. >> in the market here, frank. >> you know, we think. >> we're in this. >> age. >> of political. >> regulatory and technological disruption. >> so in this. >> kind of market environment, yes, the market's been very focused. >> on. >> the positives from. >> deregulation and potential tax cuts. >> but the negatives. >> are the policy and regulatory uncertainty and the government tax cut. >> government spending reductions. >> and we are. going to start seeing how that. starts to impact the real economy here in the coming months. >> so we expect a. >> lot of choppiness. >> all right. with that in mind, what's your word of the day? >> my word of the day. actually to navigate. >> this environment. >> is fortitude. that's what. >> investors long term investors need to get through this environment here. >> all right. so you got to have

some fortitude as we're looking at having fortitude when it comes to the markets. it sounds like you're saying you got to stay the course. so what's the course that you think investors need to stay on despite all this volatility and changes in trade and tariffs and other things? >> our playbook in. >> this kind. >> of environment. >> is on. >> our rest, on our three pillars. >> we want. >> to think long. >> term. >> stay diversified and use prudent risk management to exit, to exit positions and enter into. >> new positions. >> that's what's worked for us. we're going. >> to stay the course. >> all right, so with that in mind, why don't you give us your pick? because there's a move that you're saying that investors should make right now. what is your pick for us today? >> the one the stock that. >> we've been very positive on and we've been adding to the portfolios again, dollar cost averaging over the last several months is broadridge financial services. broadridge is actually a company that has three different segments. their core business is. what's called investor communications. >> they're the. >> middle person.

>> between the investors and the corporates. so they do a lot of investor. >> communications. >> proxy voting. >> so. >> forth, a lot of. recurring revenue here. but the excitement, the two excitement for this business is in their other. >> two businesses. >> which is. capital markets and. >> wealth management. >> and they're using technology to reduce costs to. >> transform some. >> of those businesses. and again, you know, this is one that plays into the longer theme of democratization. >> of investing. >> attracting more investors to the stock markets, to the capital markets. and broadridge is a company that benefits. they've been very consistent performer, giving us high single digit organic growth. >> rate. >> low double digit earnings growth. good capital allocator. so it's one of those stocks under the radar but a consistent performer. >> yeah right now shares up just about 1%. i'm sure our audience also noticed something else right there. we're looking at the forward p forward p e of about 28 times. a bit rich in this environment is a lot of people believe that the investors have kind of gotten religion when it comes to valuation, concerned about the

valuation, their ability to continue to maintain some of that earnings growth you were just talking about. >> when we look. >> at. >> valuation, it's been really a two tier type of a market. >> there have been companies. >> what we would call a lot of where there's secular issues. related to, you know, especially in this market where we don't know how technology is going to disrupt so many different businesses and even regulatory changes, how they're going to disrupt so many businesses. >> so there you. >> find a pocket of businesses that are trading much more inexpensively. we don't think the way we assess valuation is looking at long term. >> forecasts and where we want. >> to pay. >> reasonable value. >> for long term growth. that's how we're looking at valuation here. >> all right. one other market that you're bullish on right now is also treasuries. i haven't heard a lot of people talking about treasuries. what's the upside you're seeing when it comes to the bond market. >> bond bonds are a good. >> hedge in the portfolio, especially when you look at yields that are over ten year, over 4.5% anywhere, 4.5% to 5%. that's a nice balance in the

portfolio because you can continue to clip that. >> coupon. earn that income. >> and it's a nice diversification in the portfolio. >> all right. when you're talking about hedges what about gold. is this the time that people need to jump on top of gold with both feet right now? i mean, we have central bank buying. a lot of people see it as a safety play and also a hedge against some of the volatility. i mean, are you very bullish on gold as well? >> we don't. >> recommend we're not recommended. commodities and alternative asset classes like gold. but again you know looking at a diversified view for the portfolio. if there's if that's something that works for the investors definitely worth a consideration. >> all right. your pick for us today broadridge ticker br. great to have you on as always. thank you very much. >> thank you. >> all right. here's the watch. today we get housing starts and building permits before the open. we're just talking about some of the tariff impact on the housing market. a short time ago also this afternoon, the fed releases minutes from its latest policy meeting. and president

trump speaks to that summit hosted by saudi arabia's sovereign wealth fund in miami. and on the earnings front, we get results from analog devices, etsy, carvana and toast. right now, a quick look at futures. we've been looking at futures all morning long. futures actually turning to the red. turning to the downside. in the middle of the show about a half an hour ago. right now it looks like the dow would open about 65 points lower. the s&p and the nasdaq also lower as well. want to take a look at meta. yesterday it snapped that winning streak that 20 day winning streak. take a look at shares of meta this morning. down fractionally down about a quarter of a percent. but you can see right there on the chart big gains over that winning streak up just about 17% over that time. also a quick check of apple tim cook teasing a new product announcement. a lot of people think it's going to be a new iphone se. apple shares just fractionally lower right now in the pre-market, and we want to look at some of the areas impacted by those proposed tariffs from the president. auto makers pharma also chips. taking a look at some of those names right now. we are seeing well we're not going to see that

right now. we were hoping to see it. there we go. take a look at asian auto makers, japanese automakers in particular, under quite a bit of pressure. toyota, honda and nissan motors all down between 1 and 3 quarters and 2.25%. thank you very much for watching worldwide exchange this morning. have a great day. squawk box it is starting right now. >> good morning president. >> trump and elon. >> musk defending. >> the doge. >> team as a judge. rules to. >> allow continued access of doge to government systems. >> meantime, the president floating new. >> 25% tariffs on drugs, chips and automobiles. >> details straight ahead. >> and kfc. >> is leaving kentucky. >> it's going to relocate. >> its parent company's headquarters to plano, texas. >> february 19th. >> february 19th what? february? andrew's birthday. >> that's it. >> happy birthday. andrew. >> squawk box.

>> begins right now. >> all day, every. >> half hour. and welcome. >> every half hour. >> you're on. >> cnbc on. >> my birthday. >> we are live at the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen. becky is out today. a lot going. on this morning. for my birthday. >> the markets are not cooperating. >> we got the. >> dow looking like it's going to open off about 68 points. the nasdaq down about 16 points. >> the s&p 500. >> off about seven points. let's show you treasury yields right about now because you're looking at the ten year note sitting just about 5.54.555. that would be even worse. and the two year note at 4.3. the s&p hit. >> an all time high yesterday. >> it did. so where it is. >> right now is. >> pretty good. >> that is it. >> all i'll say.