knows. i actually don't have any idea. >> by the way across current. we're just getting word out of the washington post that the president is looking for 8% budget cuts at the pentagon. so those defense stocks many of them are still fractionally higher. but again, this is the tug of war we see in markets every day. >> morgan brennan. >> coming up. indeed. we'll see you tomorrow here on power lunch. >> all right guys thanks so much. welcome to closing bell. i'm scott wapner live from post nine here at the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with another new high for stocks and a resilient market that just keeps on chugging. how long can it last? is the question. we'll pose that to our experts in just a moment. show you the scorecard here with 60 to go in regulation. more talk of tariffs. keeping the lid on the major averages a bit today. as you see though we're now green across the board dow a smidge. but the others doing pretty decent 6146 would be a new closing high for the s&p. some decent moves in tech as well today. nvidia and tesla leading the mag seven. a rough session though for arista networks. take a look. shares getting clobbered today on a

softer than expected outlook. garmin shares well it is surging. that stock is on its earnings. take a look. 11% does take us to our talk of the tape. where is this record setting setting rally heading from here. let's welcome in dan greenhouse of solus alternative asset management and jp morgan's elise ossenbeck. it's great to have you both with us. elise. when you look at this market, the word many come back with is resilient. is that how you feel? >> we have been using the word resilient. we think that 2025 is going to be a year that investors have the chance to build on strength. we see more room for this market rally to run. we're expecting another kind of high single digit total return upside from here. and we're really focused on key themes and sort of alpha opportunities at the sector level. >> kind of continuing, dan, to climb this wall of worry. at least bank of america talks that way, that there are all these bullish technical patterns. i think the general theme is bullish, but there is, in their words, a lot of nonbelievers out

there. why so? >> i mean, there's been. >> a. >> lot of. >> nonbelievers for several years now. >> i don't. >> think that. >> any arguments that are being advanced today are novel. >> or new. >> in any. >> meaningful way. they're the same arguments. that we've heard for the better part of call it two, two and a half, maybe even three years now. >> about. >> valuation. about concentration. >> about rates, about. >> the fed. >> obviously, now. >> you've got, as. >> you were discussing today with with weiss. >> issues around the administration. there's always seems to have. >> been something to. >> have worried about over. >> these last few years. >> and virtually all of them have. >> have proven not to come to pass. >> the market is. >> as we know it, basically. >> basically at a high. >> the equal weight index, not at a. >> high, but but. >> pretty close. >> so i. >> don't think participation is as broad as you would like, but there are a lot of stocks that are doing pretty well. >> i mean, if you look at the sector performance year to date, it is pretty broad. we have had the broadening and maybe the one thing that we had worry worried about in the past that we haven't had to worry about now. earnings. earnings have been pretty good. the market wouldn't be where it is without that

because it's offset some of the noise and the concerns out of dc. >> exactly. and i think that's where we're really expecting to see the thrust of the broadening out trade really play out. i mean, you consider a sector like financials. it's one of our high conviction ones. it was leading the pack in terms of the fourth quarter earnings reporting season. and we are expecting positive results from all 11 sectors. by the time 2025 is said and done. >> financials continue to get big flows. if you're talking about a broadening market, does that continue even on that surprising news yesterday that we got out of dc, that the biden era m&a rules are going to stay in place, at least for now, which was a surprise to many. >> i will. >> say you and i have discussed you won't remember. >> because i'm not on repeating. >> it enough. but one of my things that i. >> thought that the market was getting wrong was this idea. >> that there was going to be this. >> total relaxation of the m&a rules, and everyone will. >> famously remember that. >> jd vance said, the only person in the biden

administration that he had any affinity for at all. >> was lina khan. >> yeah, well, when she she's not there anymore. so people thought, okay, you know, lina khan's gone. it's going to be easier to make deals. people are using animal spirits to talk about the expectations, especially on the financials. yeah. >> that's that's right. my point. >> was just i wasn't so sure that. >> was the case. >> now mind you, the continuation. >> of the merger rules doesn't mean that they're going to be as onerous, perhaps, as the previous administration. it just means from a continuity standpoint, they wanted to keep them there. how they interpret those rules is really the question. but that's that's a story for another day as it relates to the financials. listen. i've highlighted the asset managers like ares. >> and blue. >> owl and kkr for. >> a while. kkr had. >> had a relatively speaking a disappointing earnings report. but on balance the financials have done very well. the banks are doing very well. there is an m&a hope in there. but but you look at the charts of goldman sachs. you look at the chart of wells fargo. obviously jp morgan. there is a lot to. like about that space both fundamentally and technically.

>> you're not looking for a great year though in terms of returns, right. only about 5% from here. maybe even less than that. why? >> look, i think we have to kind of manage expectations, and we are accepting that this is a market trading at a lofty valuation. we're expecting to see that valuation come down and earnings really have to do the heavy lifting. but then we're expecting another year of earnings in 2026 on top of that. so we think the rally has legs. but a big part of the conversation we're having with our clients is focusing on ways that you can not only lean into these opportunities, but renew portfolio resilience to protect those gains that you have made over the past couple of years. >> i mean, the fed is an obvious wild card in certainly a question in all of this. on that note, the minutes were out within the last hour. steve liesman was following that for us. and the word of the moment is hold, right. >> hold or hard stop. i would say scott fed officials making clear in the minutes to the january meeting that they're on hold, as you say, awaiting

clarity on the outlook for inflation and new policies from the trump administration. the minute saying the fed is, quote, well positioned to take time to assess the evolving outlook before adjusting rates. they want to see further progress on inflation before they make any changes. as long, by the way, as the unemployment rate doesn't deteriorate the minute said minutes, saying that specifically a, quote, high degree of uncertainty made it appropriate for the committee to take a careful approach, and that changes to trade and immigration policy have potential to hinder the disinflationary process. according to the minutes, business contacts are telling the fed they would, quote, attempt to pass on to consumers higher input costs arising from potential tariffs and that fed government policies were changing, were increasing their own uncertainty. federal reserve federal government policy, that is. but business contacts also optimistic about deregulation and tax policy that could be coming from the administration. so the message seems to be it's a hard stop for now on rate cuts and maybe for several months to come. scott, i thought it was a bit of a harder stop than i had expected, given how i thought

fed chair powell described the meeting. >> if i said to you, yeah, but the idea is that the next move is definitely going to be a cut. and we're going to probably get one this year. does today's minutes read make you rethink that? >> they don't scott but they do make me wonder what the criteria is. we have to reassess the reaction function of the federal reserve here. there's more concern, i think, about inflation. there was also a line in there that some people see that we're sort of closer to the neutral rate than we thought. so i feel a little bit less dovishness on this fed than i thought perhaps was there. there are some who want to get going with rate cuts again as long as inflation comes down, but it's clear that there are two criteria here. one is clarity from the fiscal side and the other is inflation continuing to come down. >> yeah. good stuff steve. thanks. you've set us up well for the next leg of our own conversation here. does this matter? the prospect of higher rates, fewer cuts.

>> we talked about this last year. you couldn't get someone to come on either the halftime show or closing bell. who thought the fed was going to cut six times. there wasn't a single person who came on here and endorsed that view. so in that sense, sucking that out of the market, not necessarily new news to virtually everybody who came. >> but if now we're going from 6 to 0, sure. that's a big deal. >> i don't think the other day when the when the inflation number came out, i took a look at the street's response to it, and i looked at maybe 6 or 7 of the big of the big banks. virtually everybody is still forecasting at least to cut this year. most people are still forecasting two, i think. and we talked about this, i think baml was the only shop that that even referenced rate hikes when they said it was not inconceivable. that was sort of the best you could get out of professional fed watchers to say that a hike was possible, that it's not inconceivable. so my own personal view is i don't think that it's 6 or 5 or 4 or 0. the issue is whether or not we actually get or begin to price in a rate hike, which is not the expectation. now, that might be a bit of a problem for the

market. >> how much of an issue would it be if there are no cuts this year. >> for stocks? i'm not sure. >> that it would be that much of an issue. i mean, you saw the hemming and hawing in the market as we kind of started to price those cuts out since the start of the year. i think the. >> bigger conversation. >> and questions are with bond investors. i mean, what you've seen in the ten year since the fed started cutting kind of defies the historical norm in terms of that floating higher. and so we've been calling for kind of an active go anywhere approach to the fixed income landscape that i think will continue to serve investors well in the year ahead. >> what if what if consumers really start to pull back their thinking about tariffs? they're tired of paying ten bucks for eggs. you had the new reuters ipsos poll today. the share of americans who think the economy is on the wrong track rose to 53% in that poll. that's up from 43% in late january. one of the reasons why this rally has prolonged the way it has is because the consumer has remained far more robust than

people ever expected in the face of generationally high inflation. >> i have completely been on the other side of the excess savings argument that persisted for way too long. call it two years, and a lot of the stuff that solis has been doing has been around the consumer and consumer adjacent investing. if you take a look at the charts of ralph lauren, you take a look at a number of. >> you've been you've been bullish in the face of a lot of negativity in that. >> but but i bring that up because it has been the backbone of why i was more bullish on the market than perhaps some other people. but but that said, yes, of course, if the labor market were to roll over, if the consumer was to be hampered in some meaningful way, that would be a problem, if only because costco and walmart would stop going up and that, given their size, might be a problem for the market. but there's no sign of that right now. the labor market still remains strong. jobless claims remain low. obviously, tariffs are an impending issue that we have to deal with. and if you start to see them get implemented, obviously consumers are probably going to react. although again, i'm taking a bit

more of a optimistic view of things than some other people. i'm not positive that these tariffs are going to be quite as destabilizing, quite as inflationary as some other. >> i mean, do you know, the worst sector of the market year to date is tell us discretionary. yeah. so which. >> is 50% tesla. >> i understand. but it's not only tesla and amazon. there are a lot of other stocks okay. it's a zero this year. is this a potential issue out there. >> i don't think it is. look like i. largely agree with what he was saying. labor market looks better balanced. both corporate and household balance sheets are in really good shape. and in terms of thinking through prospects for the labor market, like corporate profit margins are, you know, near highs. and looking pretty stable. and so i am more concerned with what the consumer is actually doing versus what some of those sentiment indicators are telling us. >> well, people have been going back to tech of late. that's certainly really fueled the move to a new record high. it is the best performing that sector is in the month of february. apple is in focus today as well as it announces a new iphone. steve

kovach is here with more not a big movement in the stock. i don't think we really expected one because we did expect this news. >> yeah that's right scott, this. >> is the iphone 16 e this announcement today. not exactly. setting the world on fire. this is the budget friendly phone. the model that they update every couple of years. now they're calling it the 16 e instead of the se which is the old nomenclature. and basically they take an old design and put in more modern parts. but there are two important things i want to tell you about this that we need to pay attention to here. first is the price, scott at 5.99. that's $170 more than its predecessor and only $200 cheaper than the cheapest iphone 16. and i can't help but wonder what this price would have looked like if it was announced before the tariffs in china were in place. there's a good note out today from bank of america talking about the impact on earnings that these tariffs could potentially have, and whether or not apple will end up raising prices on the rest of the iphone 16 family. and then the other thing scott, we got to talk about is the modem inside

here. usually that doesn't get a lot of attention. we already know how these 5g connections work, but this is the first time apple is making its own modem. instead of using qualcomm's technology. they're calling it the most power efficient modem that they've ever put in an iphone. but they left out the word fastest. so you can definitely bet that qualcomm is going to be watching the performance of this, because these two companies, if you remember scott, were in a battle not too long ago over the fees that apple pays for every phone it makes to qualcomm. now they have their own modem. they're claiming it's good enough by putting it out, and it will likely leak into the iphone 17 lineup that we're going to expect to see this fall. and that's great for the iphone margins. that means they don't have to pay qualcomm, but they might be sacrificing a little performance. we'll wait and see how people test that, scott. but those are the things to really watch with this launch. not going to really turn around the sluggish iphone sales not going to really impact stuff in china, though this would be subject to those subsidies in china, but so still a lot more room to go.

it's really the phone they need to sell the pro phones, not necessarily the bottom of the barrel one. scott. >> yeah, i hear you, steve. thanks for that update. yeah, appreciate that very much. that's steve kovach. what about tech and this resurgence. >> for apple. >> we knew a phone was coming. i think the 599 price tag was probably a bit higher than a lot of people were expecting, i think 549 or something like that. 529 was probably in people's wheelhouse. but you see, in the reaction to the stock today, which is de minimis, it's not really new news that we knew this was coming. and again, i don't think it for apple is necessarily going to move the needle for tech more generally. listen, the space still does very well. the ai story remains intact. there's been almost nothing to tell me otherwise. obviously you've had some trouble with some of the power providers, but most of the other names look at the charts. they're not exactly nvidia, but look at nxp, look at lam research. you're starting to get some technical improvement on the back of not bad earnings reports. the space still looks pretty good. and again, as long as that ai story remains intact, which it appears to for now, then the space should probably be supported. in general. >> what's your take on tech.

>> preference for software over hardware? >> but we are. >> bullish on the sector. i think as you think about the way that the ai trade is evolving with these new, more efficient models, we really want to be leaning into those beneficiaries of increased adoption and applications of the technology. and software to us, is really the place to do that, both in public markets. but we also shouldn't ignore those private market opportunities. >> i want to add someone made this analogy. i don't remember who, but it was really good. if you think of the freezer being invented or refrigeration way back when you could have invested in ge or whoever was making the refrigerator. but the ultimate beneficiaries were the ice cream guys and the milk people who were. you could now store that at some point. it's not just going to be who can provide the best ai, but it's going to be who does the most with it. and i think that's the story for the next. when we get past this, you need to invest in the infrastructure. the story for the next 3 to 5 years is going to be who best monetizes this. i'm not sure that we have that answer right now, but i think the conversation should probably be, given the prevalence of how much this has

permeated society, should probably be moving in that direction sooner rather than later. >> do you think i can help make a better earpiece for you? >> you know, if it could, it should. i have, obviously, folks at home. have abnormally sized earlobes. apparently scott has a problem with it. he's discriminating against me, and we'll discuss it. >> off air. i couldn't help myself. nvidia is looming large. speaking of ai chips, you like software? that space. but how big of a market event do you feel like this is leading up to next week? >> look, i think it will absolutely be important. the market is craving some forward guidance on, you know, the outlook, especially with the introduction of these new ai models and with the amount of concentration that you've had and the magnificent seven, the other chip makers, it is going to be important. but again, going back to that theme of the potential for the rally to really broaden out, i think investors would be well served looking elsewhere for upside opportunities. >> one last quick point. >> there's listen, we keep talking about the broadening out

energy, financials, materials, the chemical names within that there are a host of stories that are playing out here that are not ai related, that are not constellation, that are not vistra, that you could invest in right now. it's not as if the wheel needs to turn. it's happening right now. and i this focus on a deservedly so given how important these stocks are. but there's a lot of other stuff going on in this market. and we see it each and every day. >> all right guys good stuff. thank you dan greenhouse thank you as well. all right. well one spot of maybe waning momentum is bitcoin. it's stalling a bit lately mackenzie sigalos is here with more on that move mackenzie. >> hey scott. so it's been a rough stretch for bitcoin. the price of the. world's largest cryptocurrency is down nearly 8% this month. >> and part of that. >> is simply due to the waning momentum from trump's victory. >> investors have already priced. >> in the pro crypto sentiment from his administration, including key nominee picks and an executive order that paves the way for friendlier regulation in the us. now. >> at the same. >> time, attention has shifted

back to broader economic factors tariffs, interest rates and today's fed minutes, which signaled a steady hold on rates. meanwhile, one of bitcoin's most prominent backers, michael saylor, is speaking now at the saudi backed. fii summit in miami. saylor telling the audience there, quote, you don't want anything almost anywhere other than dollars and bitcoin, and. >> that smart money. >> is running from risk now. his company strategy, formerly called microstrategy, is the largest corporate holder of bitcoin. in its latest quarterly. >> update. >> it reported that it's nearly halfway to its ambitious capital raising goal 21 billion in equity, 21 billion in fixed income entirely for bitcoin purchases. now we are. closely monitoring this event and we'll bring you any updates as they come in. >> all right mackenzie appreciate that. thank you. mackenzie sigalos. well, from stalling out to breaking out, we're tracking shares of supermicro and hims and hers today. seema is here. seema mody is with the details on supermicro brandon gomes standing by with more on him and her. simon, we'll start with you. >> well, scott, this rally in

supermicro continues following that business update that we got last week when its ceo, charles liang, set out sort of a bullish forecast for artificial intelligence servers. we'll see. the stock has gained now over 17% at one point, now up about 11% on the day after it fell dramatically on fraud allegations in 2024. but with today's gains, shares have now recouped those losses, now trading at its highest level since before short seller hindenburg research published its report calling into question supermicro accounting practices. the company has denied any wrongdoing, hired a new auditor, said its delayed 10-k filing will now be issued next week, february 25th, which will be an important read for investors and also reduce fears of a potential nasdaq delisting. the company does supply elon musk's x.ai with servers. nvidia, importantly also a big customer. stock up over 100% since the start of 2025. scott, and now the best performer on the s&p 500 this year. >> all right seema, thank you

for that. that's seema mody. now to brandon for more on hymns and hers. what's happening here. >> hey scott. >> yeah another pop. >> for hims and. >> hers surging after announcing. >> it acquired. >> at home lab. >> testing facility tribe labs. >> now the deal. >> will allow. >> the telehealth company to offer at home blood draws and more comprehensive. whole body testing. >> the terms were. >> not disclosed. >> but him said it funded the deal through cash on hand. shares have been on a huge run. we've talked. >> about it on. >> this show up about 600% amid increasing. >> demand for. >> its compounded weight loss drugs. now, some details i do want to note here about the deal the device is being used are fda cleared. we don't have pricing details yet. hims told me they will share those during rollout. this year. for context though, roe health, which has offered a similar service since 2021, sells at home blood testing kits for about $75. one more important note here is that him said in its release they will use data for ai informed developments in terms of health care offerings. and so that's something that investors are saying that they're learning or waiting to learn more about. something we'll hear about on

monday when the company reports earnings. >> scott brennan thank you. appreciate that. that's brandon gomez. we're just getting started here on closing bell. up next the big business of sports investing atlanta falcons limited partner venture capitalist sean williams is here. and former amb sports and entertainment ceo steve cannon joins me at post nine just after the break, we're live at the new york stock exchange. you're watching closing bell on cnbc. >> it's not. >> if the markets will turn. it's when at. >> howard capital. >> management, our. proprietary family of funds, actively navigates complex market landscapes while seeking to safeguard your tomorrow. we aim to empower investors by delivering opportunities with a tactical mathematical approach. start investing with confidence today. contact your financial advisor and see how howard

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to investors cnbc sports is michael ozanian confirming the niners are looking to sell a 10% stake at a more than $9 billion valuation, which would be the highest for any nfl team doing such deals. the nfl has seen a streak of transactions following the approval last year of private equity groups and other wealthy investors. the eagles

explored selling to private equity before choosing high net worth investors, valuing that team at $8.3 billion. the super bowl champs, of course, the miami dolphins hit an $8.1 billion valuation after selling stakes to ares management and the alibaba co-founder josiah. cnbc reached out to the team. the 40 niners, that is, and they have had no comment at this time. for more on the business of sports, though, and sports investing, let's bring in atlanta falcons limited partner venture capitalist sean williams and the former amb sports and entertainment ceo and vice chairman steve cannon. amb sports and entertainment is comprised of the atlanta falcons of the nfl, the mls, atlanta united fc, among other entities including the stadium mercedes benz. it's great to have both of you here. >> great to be here. >> to be here. when i saw the corner of my eye when i was reading the story about the niners and the valuation, you're sort of shaking your head and like, almost disbelief at these numbers are getting so big. >> i'm really excited. >> about the.

>> asset class sports in general. >> yeah. and the numbers. >> are big. >> because the revenue. >> numbers are large. >> the multiples. >> are staying the same. you're looking at ten and 11 times revenue for nba. >> nfl teams. >> six times revenue for major. >> league baseball teams. >> so it's a direct correlation between revenue and valuation. it's not just growing in. >> isolation. >> as long as you've got the popularity of something like the nfl, media properties like our company and others continue to pay top dollar for it, what's going to stop valuation? and by the way, the scarcity and the demand for stakes in these teams, if not the whole franchise itself, what's going to stop valuations from going straight to the moon? >> i don't see it. >> it's the most. >> valuable content. >> on television. >> it aggregates more eyeballs. >> than than. >> anybody else. >> i think 48 of the top 50. >> rated television. >> programs were all nfl. >> so their content. >> is the most valuable. the game is the most dramatic. >> i can't remember the number. >> of finishes that all ended. >> with that last field goal. so it's high drama. >> and. >> and. >> teams are now.

>> getting much. >> much better at not just picking up the national media checks, but of really driving revenue in their local markets. >> where everybody knows, obviously, that the nfl has proven to be a great investment. one of your specialties in your day job, if you will, is looking for the next great investment. where is it in sports? >> yeah. >> i think you have to. >> separate sports. >> as an investment category. >> early stage, growth stage and late stage, just. >> like you do in tech. >> late stage being nfl, mlb and nba, early stage being all of the emerging leagues, the pickleball, the, you know. the sale of the world. and then in the growth stage, you have stuff like mls, you have wnba growing high revenue but still unprofitable. and make sure you have the portfolio that's consistent with the risk that you want. >> when you talk about sports 1.0 and you know the evolution into sports 2.0, what are you exactly referring to? >> steve has. >> really been helping me get educated on it. i'll pass it over to steve for that one. >> so as as valuations have increased, suddenly teams are

finding themselves with these gigantic properties. and frankly, the table stakes have changed. building stadiums that have just sort of seat benches and grab your popcorn and leave. those days are over now. you got to build multi venue kind of entertainment properties and like it's disney world now you got to build disney world. and as you build that the cost goes up. so the entry price for a good stadium these days is it starts at $2 billion. and then if you have that much that much overhead you've got to keep that factory running 24 seven. so for us it was all about bringing in college football and bringing in concerts and bringing in private events. so to keep that factory running all the time, and that's really what's going on in the business of 2.0 that. >> so that's the game changing fact. what you what you just said as to why when we rank, you know, valuations of the league, if you own the building. correct you own the story. that's right. you're not only having your, you know, eight nfl home games plus maybe some playoff games, but the concerts and all of the

other events that you can put in the building, which only increases the value of the franchise. >> and that's why a lot of owners are getting into this space. you'll see casino owners and real estate owners, washington commanders, people who are bidding for that. they wanted that new real estate that's being developed. >> is there a buyer beware somewhere, aside from the fact that some say valuations are just not going to go to the moon, they just cannot go up forever. now they may go up for the foreseeable future in the nfl, but i don't know about, you know, how you feel about other sports, both large and small. >> so i think there's a buyer beware for some of these unproven other sports that want to be in, in and cut great national media deals, but they don't have any proven track record. so sticking with the big three, starting with the nfl, then with the nba, then with major league baseball, those three proven assets that have been around for a long, long time. what's the likelihood of any one of those teams going out of business? >> and not all of these hobbies are going to be professional leagues. some of these are just hobbies, and they will remain that way. they've been hobbies for 100 years and they haven't gotten there yet.

>> let me ask you about i reference your day job as a venture capitalist. i talked to one recently, and we were sort of thinking about the way that the deep sea news was going to impact your world, where the kinds of companies that are going to be able to raise money, if they'll be able to raise as much. and the idea of businesses being able to do more with less. yes. how are you thinking about that? >> this is the blessing and the curse of tech investing. you build an entire platform and a thesis based on new technology emerging. then you invest in these big companies that dominate that new technology, and then someone comes and clipped you at the knees. so you always have to be aware when you're dealing with high beta name investing, that there's always a technological improvement that is coming down the pipeline. we didn't predict deep seat as quickly as we should have, but what everyone is looking at down the line is quantum computing, which is the holy grail, which is at early stages now. so in between now and quantum computing, there could still be 4 or 5 other things that could clip us at the knees. >> what about the pipeline of ipos? companies are staying

private much longer, as we know. you probably know better than most what changes that if. does it change anytime soon? will we start seeing the doors open to more ipos? do you think in tech. >> the last few times i've been here and you and i have spoken, i've been the one beating the horn and the drum saying, all of these companies are going to go public. the pipeline is opening up. if we see 1 or 2 more things change, you'll see the floodgates open. i'm completely changing my mind now. after seeing the toro remove their listing to go public. i think what's happening is people are getting deal fatigue. and what i mean by that is if you change your entire business around to become profitable, to be more appealing to public equity investors, and you literally stop all the revenue growth that you were accomplishing and you still can't go public. now people are reversing back. they just want to sell their businesses, go in and grow revenue, cut that profitability to reinvest in the growth. >> good to see you here at post nine in person guys. thanks so much. >> thank you. good seeing you. >> yeah. rahsaan williams and steve kennon joining us right here. up next, top wealth advisor gerry paul from morgan stanley is standing by with the trend that she is watching in

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>> i think the. >> resilience of the market now speaks for itself. i mean, if you really, you know, listen to all of the different possible outcomes around tariffs. and we haven't seen a tax bill yet. and corporate profits are sort of reimagining new supply chains that to see the market this resilient i think tells us everything about where we can head, which is, you know, going to be higher. >> you still think that the trend is up? >> i think the trend is up. you know, the likelihood that we get a three peat, though, of a double digit return just statistically is unlikely. but from a common sense standpoint, and i think it's important with so much noise, there's so many data points we could look at just from a common sense standpoint. the rotation that we're seeing is really being driven by the tariff policy. deglobalization some of the trends that we're seeing around longevity, and that means we see a broadening out of the s&p versus last year we had where we had such a concentration. so that's where i'm positive. >> so you're you're a believer in that continuing the broadening out of the market. >> i am i'm a i'm a believer in sector rotation right now and active rebalancing and common

sense investing, which i think just sort of sense in that basic way that we can all just look at a little bit of the world and what we're contending with, and start to look where money is going to find that new home. right now, it's in, you know, defense spending in addition to continuing to own tech. >> i like the idea of cutting through the noise. i think our viewers are attracted to that idea. cut through it and tell me where i'm going to make the most money. yeah. what do you like in in that regard? >> well, i love the us equity markets, transparent capital markets and, you know, the strongest democracy in the world i'm always a fan of, especially in moments of change like the one that we're in. and i believe that there's a portfolio for every investor that's better and beyond cash at this point. and so if you're unpacking the s&p, you can build your own beta right against your own risk tolerance and profile against an expected alpha, how much return you should get for the risk that you're taking and really step into areas even like consumer staples. you want to look for a good dividend, a lower beta to

the market, get a decent return. that's amazing. within tech, you're going to take on a lot more beta, but the opportunity for innovation sits continues to sit within tech. so you're going to pay a premium and you'll be more volatile. you're going to position yourself for that j-curve return. >> well you would still would. you'd be what overweight tech or how would you play that as a. >> crude overweight cloud within tech and continue to equal wait semiconductor and rotate and take gains. if you've been in the semiconductor trade the way that my portfolios have for the last two years, then you should be taking gains and rotating into the installation phase and the adoption phase of this ai industrial revolution, which is now going to be is as present as the air that we breathe. >> interesting. there's been a considerable conversation of late about outside the us. now, you just spoke about why you like the us so much, but are you starting to think that there is better value elsewhere, or are you just not willing to take the

risk that you talked about trying to avoid? right. generate alpha without too much beta? >> right. well, you know, i'm going to go back to the common sense lens of you. take a look at europe, for example, woefully underperforming the us for the last decade at a minimum. and the conditions for investing there are only getting more challenging in terms of what the you know, what the eu is now facing from a political and combined body standpoint. and so the other problem with europe is that that the correlation between the european markets and the us markets are like at 97%. so if you're taking on the same beta risk, then you need to look at what's the idea of investing there. and even with the discounts we're seeing, i think it's more of a trade than a trend at this point. so i'm staying in the us. >> how do you feel about china, which people are trying to, you know, feel warmer about? yeah. >> well it's funny, you know, i always tell my clients that feelings are not an investment strategy. so i take my take my own advice. look, i think it's probably i love investing in markets that are transparent and

liquid, where we can quantify outcomes and really lean into leadership. that's giving good guidance around where shareholder value is going to be created. and i think that continues to sit within the united states. and we can pick up that that overseas exposure through s&p earnings in a much more transparent way. >> how do you view the prospect of tariffs for your investing strategy? >> well tariffs are fundamentally inflationary right. so we just all have to accept that whether or not the inflation is worth the outcome from an identity as a nation, that's for someone else to discuss. but they're fundamentally inflationary. >> i mean, there are some in the administration, if they were here, they'd fight, they'd fight you on it and they'd say, they're not. >> well, you know, but from a practical standpoint, we know that they're a form of taxation and a kind of a carrot and a stick incentive. so for example, we heard from the fed. the fed will likely keep rates where they are, which means they're higher for longer and that's bad for small caps. so what we are doing now is rotating out of small caps, which we did in early january, and instead went

into the big cap trade that centered on defense, which is another, you know, practical reality of moving away from collaborative, interconnected economies to more tariff oriented deal making style that has a win lose outcome. and in doing that, i think you want to stay close to home. >> all right. good to see you again here at our home, the new york stock exchange. all right paul. up next, we're tracking the biggest moves into the close today. seema mody is standing by with that. hi, seema. >> hey, scott. 18 minutes left in trade and one of the biggest winners on the year. palantir plunging on comments made by president trump. we'll get you that full story after this short break.

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palantir's. you'll see. stock down about 10%, 12% now on the day. and then take a look at shares of garmin climbing after the company posted a 23% jump in revenue year over year. with the fitness segment specifically growing 31%, the company's also issuing full year revenue forecasts that came in above wall street estimates and raised its dividend. garmin is currently trading at an all time high, with the stock up over 11%. on the flip side, scott bumble is sliding the online dating platform issuing weak first quarter guidance, saying it expects to see a decline in paying users in the near term. and btig analyst writing that this feeds into this view that the dating app category has hit a wall. shares of bumble looking at it right now down nearly 30% right now scott. >> all right sam appreciate that. seema mody. still ahead. what to watch for when carvana reports. top of the hour. we're back on the bell just after this break. >> this is the emirates premium

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we've been navigating change for 125 years. always looking forward, anticipating risks and trusted to manage over $1 trillion in assets worldwide. solving for the needs of investors today and tomorrow. invest greg takes prevagenow. that's th for his brain and this is his story. hi, i'm greg. i live in bloomington, illinois. i'm not an actor. i'm just a regular person. eight years ago, i just didn't feel like i was on my game. i started taking prevagen and i want people to know that prevagen has worked for me. give it a try. i want it to help you just like it has helped me. i've been taking prevagen for eight years now and it is still helping me tremendously. prevagen. for your brain. commentator mike santoli here to break down these crucial moments

of the trading day. plus two earnings releases out. not on our radar. phil lebeau watching carvana. seema mody watching. mike, i turn to you first. we just keep climbing up slowly but surely. >> yeah. >> and within it, it's almost like the market's doing just enough. >> to kind. >> of keep its nose above water. interesting how much erratic action there remains below the surface. whether you want to point to the palantir or the smi moves today. even, you know, things like robinhood that have been really. >> strong coming into. >> this week. meta down again today. and yet the market just. >> kind of. >> takes it. >> i might have thought. >> that in a week when it's kind of a no news. >> backdrop in. >> terms of big macro, in terms of big earnings or any anything like. >> that, that. >> you might have just gotten a little more of a levitation type effect. broadly speaking, we haven't gotten that, which is, i guess, fine. it's not as if it's indicting this move. and as i

said before, if you just look back at the history of when markets behave like. >> this. >> making a new high in february, being up 4% by this point in. >> the. >> year, usually there's positive. >> forward going implications. >> but it just fails to sort of impress you with the energy on a day to day basis. >> yet another reminder today the fed is locked in place for sure for the foreseeable future. market seems to understand that fully. >> it was interesting. i mean, you did get yields come down a bit and. >> the stock market popped just. >> slightly on the minutes today. >> even though it was very. >> much in tune. >> with what we. expected the fed to. >> have said. >> i do think there's. >> sometimes a little more suspense when you've had a meeting that didn't have the dots, so you didn't have the dots. there's always that, hey. >> did powell. >> characterize it the way it really went on. >> in the room? >> i think it honestly was just getting it out of the way and a no surprises type of response because i agree. hold before, hold. >> during and hold after is basically the message. >> yeah. leaning maybe even a touch more hawkish than i mean, that was totally. yeah.

>> i'll come back. >> to you in a minute. phil lebeau is going to watch carvana for us in ot. >> phil scott, three things. >> we're looking for from carvana when it report. its q4 results. >> obviously. >> number of units sold. >> that's going. >> to be the main metric that people. will be. >> focused on. >> and whether or. not the street. >> which has been. >> a little shy of expectations. >> or they've exceeded expectations last several quarters, does that. >> continue in. >> the fourth quarter? profit per unit and margin, obviously a focus as both have increased over the last year. >> and then the guidance for 2025. >> is you take a look at shares of carvana. remember, it was under a lot of pressure when the short seller report came out in november. it's bounced. >> back. >> from that now at a. 52 week high. scott the number to look for when we. >> get the results after the bell. >> $0.29 a share. >> that's what the. >> street. is expecting for a profit. >> back to you. >> all right, phil thank you. phil lebeau was going to watch klaviyo for us. what should we look out for? >> well, scott klaviyo is among the ai software names that has outperformed as of late. it provides centralized data platform to clients, and it's been working to expand overseas. revenue in the third quarter

grew by 34% year over year. the street will want to know if the company can sustain that level of growth going forward. there's more competition on the rise. it's got the justice department also out with a new memo yesterday that it's keeping the biden administration's stringent rules on mergers and acquisitions until further notice. the street will want to know or get more clarity on whether this affects software companies as a whole, how they're thinking about those inorganic opportunities. we know a number of them have been talking about being more acquisitive in 2025. >> simon, thanks. we will watch out for that there here at the new york stock exchange too. they're going to do the honors at the close today. let's just hit palantir again on these apparently moving like this worst day in a long time on these headlines about prospective defense cuts. >> yes. >> and i think it's telling that you do get this dramatic response. >> and it. >> tells you how stretched and kind of unstable the stock move had become, up 350% on a one year basis, been a leader year to date, overbought like for the ages 200 times forward earnings.

the ceo this morning made a new stock. >> sale plan. >> is going to sell $1 billion worth of stock. >> that hasn't. >> mattered on the way up. and so even though you might come back and say. >> hey, palantir is an. >> efficiency play for defense spending, it's not really the big iron that they're going to cut. it shows you that it provided at least a short term excuse for this one to kind of come out of the tree tops. >> yeah. >> quantum computing announcement from microsoft today that stock is up one and a quarter. >> very interesting. it did pop on the news a 1.25%. it's been a non participant in this latest bit of the rally. it also got the kind of old really flimsy speculative quantum names moving from really low bases. so again you still have this willingness to just. >> buy lottery. >> tickets around the market, even while. >> the center. >> core of the index has remained pretty calm, orderly coloring within the lines. >> yeah, the thought. >> of bitcoin. >> you know, which. >> is yeah, you know, it's down.

>> 8.5% in a month. what's your view here? >> i mean i mostly view it as, you know a kind of the whip end of risk appetites. it's not quite conforming to what you're seeing in some other parts of the market. i know there's been a bit of a divergence with how, for example, the nasdaq 100 has moved recently. >> so i. >> don't think there's an important level. i know some people feel like there is a risk of a bit of a real breakdown here, but it has been more of a kind of coincident indicator to me than it is a leading one. so i don't think it's like the dow, the old dow theory where, hey, if bitcoin doesn't make a new high, i don't believe the new high in the s&p 500, but it is something to keep on the screen. and again i see sort of this weird overlay. i think we've been in this range long enough 6000 6100 on the s&p. it's sapped conviction both from bulls and bears. so there's a little bit of an indecisiveness out there. >> so i don't. >> think it's about people need to calm down. and therefore bitcoin does have to pull back. but it's worth keeping on your screen as a major.

>> thank you very much for that mike. we're going to knock to another closing. >> high on the s&p. >> there doesn't seem to be any doubt about that. in fact we look positive across the board for the three majors. as the bell rings i'll send it over time. >> to. >> morgan and john. >> that bell. >> that bell marks. >> the end. >> of regulation. >> clavio ringing the bell at the new york stock exchange as. >> it gets set to. >> report earnings. >> this hour. and i'm doing. >> the honors. >> at the nasdaq. >> it is another. record close for the s&p. >> 500 as. >> fed minutes. well they don't spook investors though. defense names and palantir falling late in the session. that is the scorecard on wall street. but winners stay late. >> welcome to closing. >> bell overtime. there's the music. >> i'm jon fortt. >> with morgan bradley. >> well ahead. >> on this hour. >> charles schwab. >> chief investment strategist. >> liz ann. >> sonders opens up. >> her playbook as stocks sit at these. record levels and tells us the one factor she says, is driving the market action. >> plus. >> we are. >> awaiting earnings. >> this hour from carvana,