savings and soon go to cnbc.com. join jim now. terms and restrictions apply. >> i think ambition is really an extension of faith. >> if you first off believe. >> in yourself that gives. >> you the power to chase your dreams. i hope to always be a clear, accurate and investable voice for all of our viewers. you learn a lot here at cnbc. >> it's also. >> a lot of fun. >> it is. >> 5 a.m. here at cbc global headquarters. welcome to worldwide exchange. here is your five at five. stocks are on pace for their worst week in a month as investors they shift to safe havens. two sectors hammering the markets this week banks. >> and retail. >> what's at play and what's next. then on the flip side stocks in china they are surging on the back of alibaba. now one big name investor. >> is boosting their stake. >> plus fresh off layoffs. >> for. >> executives they are reaping the rewards. and later the department. of justice reverses course in favor of elon musk. it is friday, february 21st, 2025. you're watching worldwide exchange right here on cnbc.

good friday morning. thanks so much for being with us. i am frank collins. get you ready for the trading. >> day ahead. >> we begin with the major indexes lower. yesterday the dow the nasdaq on pace for a losing week. the s&p just just fractionally higher. take a look at futures right now. you can see fractional moves to the upside across the board. the s&p up just about three. points now. looks like it would open up about 30 points higher. the nasdaq up about 30 points as well. we're going to start off with some. s&p pre-market gainers looking at the stocks moving the futures. >> higher. >> right now. >> right at the top of the list we see brown and brown up just about 2%. this is an insurance company booking holdings. everest group, idex. and agilent tech. >> rounding out the top five. >> we'll look at the other side of. >> the. >> coin right now. the laggards on the s&p. 500 taking a look at those names. >> akamai. >> those shares. >> down more than 9%. eog resources. >> howmet aerospace digital realty and cbre. >> rounding out. >> the bottom. >> five there. >> we're also watching retail

after. walmart earnings. yesterday where we saw shares fall. 5% on guidance of slowing profit and of tariff concerns. >> a check of walmart. and some. other retailers that have upcoming reports. we're seeing walmart bouncing. >> back a bit. those shares. >> up about a half a percent. >> target up about a quarter percent. best buy falling more than 1%. >> macy's down a half a percent. >> the xrt the retail etf basically flat right now just down just about a. 10th of a percent. so basically flat there. we also want to check the bond market yields moving lower. take a look at the benchmark right now coming in at 4.49 falling just under ten basis points for the week. we've seen some downside moves when it comes. >> to yields. >> and we. >> want to take a look at the energy sector. a check of oil. first we're seeing oil pulling back a bit. wti the u.s. benchmark more than. >> a half a percent down. >> brant crude also more than a. >> half a percent. >> down but both still above key sentiment levels. above 70 bucks a barrel for wti, above 75 for brant. a lot of action when it comes. >> to natural gas, however. >> natural gas. yesterday it broke a seven day win streak. but you can see right now it's up just about 3.5%. also up double. >> digits for.

>> this week. speaking about an area. >> of the market. >> that's up. let's talk about gold. >> higher on the week up eight weeks in a row. >> its longest weekly win streak since all the way. >> back in 2020. >> remember the pandemic a lot of uncertainty. the safety play here. having a big week. >> up 1.5% right now. >> pulling back just a bit, pulling back about a third of a percent. and this morning we're also watching fedex, amazon and ups. on reports the white house wants to take control of the u.s. postal service. taking a look at shares of those companies. not a lot of movement actually seeing amazon up a third of a percent. we're going to talk much. >> more. >> about this story just a bit later on in. >> the hour. all right. >> that is your setup. we got a lot to get to this morning. we're going to move on to our big money movers. those are big stock stories this morning. we're going to start off with rivian. those shares under pressure despite topping q4 estimates. you can see rivian shares. >> down about 2.25%. >> the company is warning of weaker than expected deliveries for the year ahead. shares of block, formerly known as square, also lower after reporting weaker than expected sales and earnings for its most recent quarter. you can see shares of block. they're down just over

7.5%. shares of mercadolibre. they're higher this morning. latin american e-commerce platform posting a record quarterly profit for the fourth quarter. before today's pop shares were already up more than 2% in two months. right now, you can see shares are up over 12% right now again after earnings. and this last. >> one is called a. >> celsius surge. if you watch the show you know i drink a lot of celsius. we have some other team members that drink quite a bit as well. the energy drink maker topping estimates for the fourth quarter and announced it's buying a lonnie nutrition for $1.8 billion. shares of celsius really spiking up almost 34%. all right. let's see how europe is shaping up as this trading day gets underway. our julianna tatelbaum is in london with a look at the early action. julianna, always great to see you. happy friday, frank. >> happy friday. i've never tried celsius myself, but you made quite a pitch for it. as for european equity markets, we have opened higher on this friday morning after a modest pullback yesterday. you can see a little bit of red on the board for the xetra dax. but the ftse mid over in italy, the cac40 in

france and the uk market are trading higher. this morning we just got some fresh pmis through flash figures for the month of february. the overall message here for the eurozone pretty muted growth. the chemical sector doing particularly well this morning. air liquide trading sharply higher after delivering some upbeat guidance to the market. from a week to day perspective, i think it's worth taking a look back at how european markets have performed. they've been choppy in terms of the overall trade, lower on the whole, fairly muted though, and i say that's interesting because of how much news flow there has been on the geopolitical front and how much, how many tense discussions there have been in europe in terms of what comes next in terms of support for ukraine. and we've also, of course, have the german election to look forward to on sunday. now, in terms of defense, we have seen quite a performance from the european defense names this week. some massive moves to the upside. double digit moves higher. ryan mattel, leonardo. just a few of the names that have performed extremely well.

hensoldt rank as well. a lot of expectation from european investors that all this pressure from the trump administration is going to lead to drastically higher spend from european economies on defense to ensure their security in regards to the conflict in ukraine. frank, we'll hand it back over to you. >> giuliana, thank you very much. always appreciate it. julianna tatelbaum live in our london newsroom. all right. this morning we are also tracking etf flows, etf net inflows topping $151 billion year to date. we're also tracking the moves of the 30 day moving averages for these popular index funds the spy and the triple qs. we all know them. net inflows into those index funds they fell below the average for this holiday shortened week. this week the s&p 500 fractionally higher. the nasdaq 100 lower, despite both hitting fresh records throughout the week. tariff concerns also weighing on the market. investors. they were once again looking for safety and chasing the upside moves in gold when it comes to etf net inflows. the gld etf. the top inflow seeing

$1.5 billion in net inflows. the ishares s gold bond etf seeing the second most inflows. investors also focusing on the broadening of the market. the rsp, which tracks the s&p equal weight index, seeing the third most inflows this week. joining me now, doug boneparth, president of financial advisor at bona fide wealth. he's also a member of the cnbc financial advisory council. doug, it is always a pleasure to have you here. >> great to be here. >> i want to talk to you about those etf flows right there. so this week in particular investors they seem to be going to safety again the gold etf the tracks you know the moves of gold obviously. and also short term bonds with the sg. what do you make of that. >> i think people are trying to see what's going to happen here with the trump administration. and we've got tariff threats all over the place. you come off a year like 2024 on the back of 2023, maybe we hang out and see what's going on here before going all in. but it is a flight to safety. is there some concern out there? >> so when you're talking to your clients right now, is that what they're talking to you about? some of the volatility in the markets. some of the questions about tariffs. are

they also looking for moves to safety. and do you think that's the best way to play it with gold and bonds. >> sure. so i think it's usually our job to let them know what's going on here. right. so we tell them look we have a year. we're probably going to expect more volatility. how does that actually translate into our portfolio. it depends on their goals. of course long term investors probably aren't going to be too worried and take their foot off the pedal with equities just because there is some concern out there around tariffs. so long term investors staying the course short term we still have decent yield. there's still an opportunity in bonds. we'll see what's going on there. so a little more safety to your portfolio might not be a bad idea. but again what's the goal. >> we want some of the market. when you say bonds are you also in favor of short term bonds. is that where you're seeing the opportunity or is it the belly that a lot of people are. >> saying, yeah, i'm still in the intermediate term space here because i think there's still opportunity for upside potential. i like the yield. >> so in this market right now, is this a buy the dip market? i mean, a lot of people are talking about palantir. palantir under quite a bit of pressure. i've seen a number of analysts and other people saying you should buy the dip on this stock. this is an opportunity.

that's a move that's definitely worked out over the last year or so, actually the last two years, if we're really going to be looking at the moves in the market. but is that the right play right now in your mind? is this a buy the dip market or is this a wait and see market? >> you don't even need to go back a year or two years to see that opportunity present itself. with the deep sea dip in ai. so if you scooped up nvidia at 120 bucks and you're back at 140 now, can you do that with palantir? and there's a lot of people who are going to say that. yeah. hey, you got a nice steep discount on a stock you might want to own long term. if you believe in that story, then here's an opportunity to get in on an over 10% dip in that stock. >> all right. so we're talking about earnings. we're talking about a lot of things going on in the market this earnings season. our bob pisani says earnings revisions to the downside of kind of accelerated coming up next week. we got a big one. we got nvidia earnings. are your clients talking to you about positioning ahead of that. are there moves that you would actually suggest people whether you're short term or long term, do ahead of this report. that could really be a market mover. >> yeah. you know, the whole weight of the market rests on the shoulders of nvidia. >> right. >> everyone looks for that

earnings report. however you can get that very right. or you can get. >> that very wrong. >> if you make a move before we see that report. >> and you don't have to go. >> back too far again to see that, hey, this thing can really jump or it can really retreat, depending on what that is. so you got a guessing game. you know, you might, but you're playing. >> with a bit just. >> no, no, no, you're playing with. >> miles ahead of it. or do you wait. >> do not. i think you're playing with fire. >> we got to leave it there. doug bonaparte, always great to see you. thank you very much. thanks. all right. coming up here on worldwide exchange, we've got a lot more to come, including why one market watcher is betting big on a beaten down bank stock. but first, big rewards for meta's top brass. they could be ahead. and a key tech executive reportedly goes face to face with president trump. then later, elon musk reignited his feud with the fed. we have a very busy hour still ahead on worldwide exchange. ahead on worldwide exchange. stay with at ameriprise financial we know our clients are so much more than clients. they're conquerors and champions, and what matters most to them matters most to us. it's no wonder we have a 4.9 out of five client satisfaction rating. ameriprise financial.

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office. meanwhile, fresh off company wide layoffs, executives at meta platforms stand. >> to get. >> bigger bonuses. now, that's according to a. >> new company filing. >> where meta approved a plan in which. the top ranks. >> at meta. >> could earn. >> bonuses as. >> high as 200%. of their base salaries. that's up from a previous 75%. mark zuckerberg. is not eligible for this new bonus plan. and while gamestop ceo ryan cohen has reportedly. boosted his personal stake. >> in alibaba. >> by about. 7 million shares worth about $1 billion now, according to the wall street journal, the new stake is a. >> bet by. >> cohen on the future of. china's economy. cohen wasn't immediately available. >> for comment to cnbc. and we're seeing shares of. >> alibaba up about 4% in the premarket. >> yeah, big move to the upside. we're going to talk a lot more about chinese equities and

chinese tech in particular coming up later in the show. silvana, thank you very much. all right. still on deck, ryan cohen isn't the only investor pouring cash into china. as i said ahead, the china stock turnaround. has it gone too far too fast for investors. stay with us. >> welcome to reinvented with accenture. today i'm here with margarita della valle, ceo of vodafone. you were employee 25 in vodafone italy. >> today you're the ceo. >> of vodafone. what is your strategy and vision for the future? >> we are changing our culture to really focus on our customers. we need to acknowledge that change is hard, but if people understand it's for the right reason, then you get the power of the organization with you. >> this is a landfill. w.m has transformed what you think of as landfills into engineering marvels, while helping to protect the natural environment. >> learn more. >> about our modern landfills

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>> welcome back. >> to worldwide exchange. ryan cohen is the latest big name investor pouring his cash into china. morgan stanley is suggesting that you do the same, ending its longtime bearish view on chinese equities, saying a structural regime shift is finally happening. this comes after goldman sachs upped its outlook. stocks in the region and especially tech names. it really been on a tear since the deep sea breakthrough. and alibaba has blowout earnings report yesterday that just fueled the rally even more. the hang seng tech index is now sitting at a three year high, and over the past six months, it's more than doubled the gains from the mag seven. joining me now to debate is brendan ahern, cio at kraneshares that manages the kweb china internet etf. also with me, lenny zephyrin, principal and analyst at the zephirin group and the only analyst on the street with a sell rating on alibaba and jd.com. gentlemen, great to have you both with us this morning. brendan, i'm going to start with you. you're a bull in this situation. you manage the kweb saw its biggest inflows of the

year last week over $600 million. big run up since deep kweb up over 15% since then. but i do want to ask you. besides, deep sea has something else dramatically changed when we're looking at chinese equities, specifically chinese tech? >> yeah, definitely. >> good morning frank. >> yeah, we definitely do. >> i mean. >> since last. >> january when the. >> chinese equity. >> markets bottomed. >> kweb is. >> up over 45%. >> so yes, we've had. >> a recent run. >> but if. >> you step. >> back. >> big picture. >> a cobweb. >> has been in an uptrend. it feels like two. >> steps forward. >> two steps back. >> but in. >> reality. >> it's been two. >> steps forward, one. >> back since january. and that's why technical analysts are so bullish. also we're seeing very strong corporate buybacks from the companies themselves. these are tech entrepreneurs. we're seeing many. >> sell side. >> analysts upgrading the space. >> they're not upgrading china. >> they're upgrading. china internet because. >> of the. fundamentals are improving. >> in the space. >> and we think there's a lot more coming on the horizon in terms of policy. >> toward the.

>> domestic consumption story in china. i was. >> just. >> in china recently. >> real estate was the. >> topic du jour. and there really. >> is to believe that. >> there's more. >> policy support. >> coming because. >> it is. >> a real crisis. they have to do more, which is why they're. >> going to do a trade. >> deal with president trump. >> and our belief, and we do think a. rerating in the space is taking place. >> all right. so brendan saying rerating whole new thing going on lenny i'm going to come over to you. you're saying it's just more of the same old when it comes to china? i want to ask when you say it's the same old kind of stuff. i'm looking at your notes right now. are we saying it's the same concerns about the consumer, the same concerns about the property sector, the same concerns about state involvement in companies? what's the same old, same? >> it's the same. i mean, if you go back to march 2023, you know, alibaba announced a major. >> restructure, right. >> so the stock. >> you. >> know. >> jumped, you know, ten points. >> and again. >> we're on 2025. we have the same type of historic announcement major investment into into. into ai. again the

stock up ten points. but however the fundamentals are not there yet. there are too many major if, if and if in the current marketplace today. and again based on our. >> notes. >> it's the same. it's the same. it's the same issue, the same policies, the same subsidies that's going that's going to keep the market afloat. but however, going forward, we want to see the market operate independently of subsidies from the government and promotional, you know, discounts from the from the corporate side. >> lenny, let me push back a bit, though. you're saying it's the same old, same when it comes to the situation. but i'm looking at your outlook when it comes to the hang seng index. you see it moving 9% higher this year. i mean, isn't that a pretty good outcome when you're investing in equities, period? i mean, whether it's in china or here in the us. >> yes, it is a good outcome. you know, overall the. index is still at a multi-year. you know, bearish. you know it's still below its 27 2017 high. and it's

much below its mid 2018 high. so you know we see we don't see the same. we see we see a percentage increase based on what's been happening for the past two weeks with with ai and achievement. that's you know that should you know in our opinion, you know, provide some support for the desk to the end of the year. but i have i think the market overall, you know, it has been overly aggressive on the potential, you know, increase going forward. >> all right. so brendan coming back to you again. you say it's different in china. but you're also saying things are different here in the us. you believe that president trump's going to handle relations with china very differently than the biden administration did. but pretty much from the offset, the president's been very vocal about china and also talked about tariffs. what's the big change that you're seeing in the trump administration? that's going to be possibly a tailwind for these chinese equities specifically for tech. >> yeah, i mean. >> certainly from the. >> previous administration. >> there was no effort to do a deal. there was no effort to communicate with china. there was a explicit effort to hobble

and cripple the chinese economy. particularly chinese technology. donald trump is a business person. he knows president xi well, and china is not in a position to. not accept a deal. and us corn and soybean futures since the inauguration have been rallying. and we do believe that president xi and president trump have a relationship. they did a deal. in the past, president trump had said that he would go to china in his first 100 days. just yesterday, he mentioned on air force one that he's willing to go back. and we do believe that president xi sending the vice president of china to president trump's inauguration was probably. laying the groundwork for a china trip. and certainly elon musk. you mentioned tim cook speaking to president trump. these are all business people that donald trump respects, and they have a very strong vested interest in us-china relations. >> all right, brendan, one thing

i admit that the commodity prices you're talking about, the upside moves on corn and soybeans, but that could potentially be a lot of that front loading ahead of potential tariffs. but i want to go back to the relationship between the president and china. you're saying that you think that he's going to have a friendlier outlook, if you will. but just to be clear, when deep sea occurred, he called it a wake up call. he actually asked for u.s. companies to step up to maintain dominance. so while you're saying the biden administration wants to hobble china, it's not as if the president wants to see china a rising china. i should say it's not. that doesn't seem to be the thing. what's the specific thing that you think is going to change under the trump administration? is it less export controls? i mean, what's the thing that's going to be the big tailwind in your mind? >> yeah, i think an element. >> of doing a trade deal with china is the ability of chinese companies to build factories here in the united states, something to cattle to chinese ev maker. their ceo publicly stated in december that he offered to build a factory. >> here in the united. >> states, and the u.s. government said no. and i think president. >> trump. >> a part of the reshoring. >> the bringing back.

>> manufacturing, chinese companies can play a part in that. and i do think, you know, president. >> trump. >> as. >> we're seeing. >> with ukraine. >> and russia. >> he has an ability to negotiate in a very unorthodox manner. and i think he can do the same. with china. and i think there's a lot of a lot of people who potentially view what deep. seat did, which. >> i. >> think really. >> does expose, you know, this very crowded trade in this one specific area in us equities globally. i think it is a global overweight. so i think i think yeah a little buying a little smidge a little touch of cheap china tech taking some profits from us tech. makes sense in my opinion. >> okay i'm going to give you the last word. we got to get going in a second. we mentioned you have a sell rating on jd.com and alibaba. the alibaba report. has that changed your view at all on alibaba. is there anything coming up that could potentially change your view on jd.com? are there any catalysts that you think investors need to look out for? >> i think the catalysts for us to look. >> at is. >> to see, you know, how the chinese consumers are reacting,

you know, to the to the market and to see, you know, if the economy has improved. i mean, you know, we. have approximately. >> you know. >> 150 million, you know, unemployed individuals in the marketplace right now. right? and with the introduction of, of deep sick and ai and companies have been investing in technology that's going to reduce the workforce, right? so that's that the workforce then that's going to actually hurt consumption. then again, it's going to be the same thing as last year. the regulators, the government is going to increase, you know, some subsidies to keep consumption afloat. so we don't see that change anytime soon. >> i don't think it's the last time we're going to have this conversation. brendan ahern and lenny zephryn, great to have you both here. thank you. >> thank you. >> all right. as we head to break, we're watching shares of palantir this morning and see shares are up about 1.5% right now. but it fell another 5% yesterday. the stock is now down about 15% from its all time high that it hit just midday on wednesday. it's been a very

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easier to get deals done, and who who really benefits from that? the big ones that got hit the hardest. i still think the bank story is intact, although the first quarter looks like first quarter m&a will be disappointing and maybe it'll continue to be disappointing. >> that was metropolitan capitals karen finerman on fast money last night laying out the big breakdown and the banks yesterday, new worries around the economy and a lack of deregulation, giving investors just a moment of pause. welcome back to worldwide exchange i'm frank collin. coming up this half an hour chris mcgrath is going to lay out why he says the pendulum is truly shifting for the financial sector. and freedom capital's jay woods on the stock that he says is his top pick in that space. but first we begin with the markets. the major indices lower. yesterday the dow the nasdaq on pace for a losing week. the s&p just just fractionally higher. just a scooch higher. take a look right now with futures you can see they are in the green across the board. the dow looks like it would open up about 45 points higher. the s&p up fractionally higher. the nasdaq up just about 35 points as well. we want to take a look at the

nasdaq 100 pre-market gainers right now. taking a look. mercado libre right here at the top of the list. we were talking about this stock earlier. this is an earnings move. shares up about 12% followed by pdt booking holdings. palantir kind of a rebound. we talked about some of the pressure on palantir in recent days. and the defense stocks just a short time ago. intel shares also up over 1%. other side of the coin, the nasdaq 100 laggards. taking a look at those workday falling more than 1.5%, followed by atlassian, vertex, lululemon, the retailer under some pressur. perhaps after that walmart report, we're going to talk a bit more about walmart and retail coming up in just a second. analog devices rounding out the bottom five. so talking about retail right now actually after walmart shares, they fell 5% yesterday after earnings on guidance of slowing profit and tariff concerns. when i take a look at a number of retailers that have upcoming reports, first let's start with walmart. a bit of a rebound today. those shares up about a third of a percent, target up about just about a quarter of a percent or so. best buy falling more than 1%. macy's down a half a percent. the xrt retail etf in the premarket at least essentially flat down

fractionally just a bit. we're going to talk much more about walmart in a moment. we also want to check the treasury market this morning. bond yields moving just a bit lower. the benchmark at 4.49 falling just under ten basis points for the week. so a downside move when we're looking at yields there. we also want to look at energy including natural gas to start off with oil first oil pulling back a bit. wti and brant crude both pulling back more than three quarters of 1%. also both still above key sentiment levels of 70 bucks a barrel and 75 bucks a barrel. more action in the natural gas market. take a look. natural gas up about 4% yesterday. it broke a seven day win streak, but still up double digits for this week. and speaking of moving higher, we're going to talk about some gold right now. gold up eight weeks in a row, its longest weekly winning streak since all the way back in 2020. right now you're seeing a bit of a pullback pulling back just under a half a percent. but for the week, gold up just about 1.5%. and also we want to dig into two slices driving a lot of the market drop yesterday. we're talking about banks and walmart earnings

financials. they were the worst performing sector yesterday. the major lenders all falling between one and a half one and a half. and 4%. sometime they actually concerns around the economy. other chalking it up to signals from the president that he'll keep stricter biden era merger guidelines in place. and then there's the walmart side of it all shares falling 6.5% yesterday, its worst day in over a year. the retail giant revealing profit growth will slow this year even as their sales continue to climb, its cfo telling cnbc. despite largely sourcing from the us, just about two thirds from the us, it is not completely immune from president trump's proposed tariffs. for a deeper dive into the banks, we're joined by chris mcgratty, head of u.s. bank research at kbw. and for retail, we have sucharita kodali, retail analyst at forrester research. but first, why don't we start with the banks? chris, good morning. thank you so much for joining us. >> good morning frank. >> how are you doing. >> all right. so that that news about the biden merger rules potentially staying in place, more than likely staying in place. that happened earlier in the week. why do you think we saw a reaction later in the week?

>> yeah, that. >> announcement really. didn't surprise. >> us. >> talking internally. strong bank merger. >> rules have. >> always been, you know, something we. >> need. >> in the system. >> we need strong regulation. you know, the banks have. >> had a. >> decent move since the election. so, you know, one day's move to. us is in a trend. but you know, we are keeping. >> a close. >> eye. >> on the. >> developments from from washington. >> okay. so you're keeping a close eye on developments in washington. i want to ask you, when we're talking about investing in the financial space, even with these biden era rules in place or, you know, potentially staying in place for a longer term, does that change the thesis when it comes to financials? i mean, how important were mergers to the financial sector? it seemed like the stocks were moving higher on more capital markets activity, more investment banking activity, where mergers a catalyst for some of these upside moves. >> mergers are. >> a big. >> thesis within the banks. >> and that. >> goes back historically. >> i'm 44 when i when i was born there were 15,000 banks in the country. there's 4500 today. so i would say m&a is a cyclical and a structural part. of investing. >> in bank stocks.

>> on average, you lose about. >> 3 to. >> 4% of. >> banks every year. >> to consolidation. >> the last couple. >> years have. >> been slower, right. >> we've seen the effects of. >> higher. >> higher interest. >> rates, you. >> know, uncertainty. >> around the election. and there's been a huge amount. >> of pent. >> up enthusiasm. >> after the. >> 2024 election. now deals take time to occur. we were last week in. >> florida meeting. >> with over 100 banks. >> at. >> annual financial services conference. >> the momentum. >> and the. >> dialog there was just really encouraging. but these things do take some time to occur. >> all right. we're very focused on these merger rules and the idea of regulation. i want to ask you about something else, the fed impact on the sector, because yesterday we heard from adriana kugler, you know, an fomc official. she said that she believes rates should stay in the same place for quite a while. we've heard other fed officials say something similar. so are we sure this isn't a potential fed impact on the sector, at least for this week, as opposed to the idea of these merger rules? >> i think. >> there's a lot of factors. >> in play, you know, higher. >> for longer. >> you know, we are getting used

to higher for longer. >> we've had higher. >> interest rates for now for a couple of years. corporate borrowers are now accustomed to the resets that are happening. and as a firm, we think there will. >> be two cuts. >> this year. >> whether we get 1 or 2. what's interesting, frank, coming out. >> of fourth. >> quarter earnings, when these banks laid out 2025 guidance, the range of outcomes was much narrower. >> this. >> year. >> which has a really important. >> and profound. >> impact on earnings estimates last year. going into 2024, the range of outcomes for the fed were 0 to 7. >> cuts. >> and we saw huge volatility in earnings. >> estimates last year. >> we haven't seen that this year. and i think if we get stabilizing earnings estimates or even increasing earnings estimates, you could see the banks continue to work. >> all right chris mcgrady great to have you on. thank you very much. >> thank you. >> all right. coming up here on worldwide exchange. the other side of the market drag. that's walmart. and what a warning from the retail giant on president trump's tariff proposals. what that could mean for the broader space. stay with us.

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unclear if they will actually go into effect next month. let's bring in sucharita kodali, retail analyst at forrester research. good morning. it's great to have you here. >> thanks, frank. >> thanks for having me. >> all right. so let's just start off with walmart. you know, we've had some analysts come on and say that walmart's kind of insulated from these tariffs because they source so much from the us. we heard it's two thirds from the cfo yesterday. but also there's such a big company. they have the ability to switch products and maybe move to domestically sourced things when we're looking at walmart. how big is the tariff risk in your mind, not only for the company itself, but also for consumer confidence? >> well, overall, every company in. >> the. >> united states. >> is going to face. >> some challenges. >> with respect to tariffs because. there are just going to. be likely. overall higher prices. >> both for. >> consumers as well as the companies that have to initially pay those tariffs. >> so this is something. >> that is going. >> to. >> have an adverse. impact on u.s. gdp. >> of the. >> 15 organizations. >> that i've. >> looked. >> at that have made estimates.

>> about the impact, it's going. >> to range anywhere. >> from 20 basis points. >> to 150. >> basis points of a negative. impact on u.s. gdp overall. >> and that. >> will. impact everything. if you look at a region like. >> canada, which if they have to face. >> universal tariffs, you're going to. have higher prices on everything. >> from lumber to fuel. and that means that the remaining. >> regions of the world that are supplying those goods are going to be able to charge higher prices, and that's going to have an inflationary effect on everything. >> in. >> the united states. including both the goods that walmart sells. >> the goods, the goods that. >> they have to source for their. >> warehouses and stores, and ultimately. >> the prices. >> they charge to shoppers. >> so let's broaden it out a bit. i want to talk about one of walmart's biggest rivals. at least it's rising rival that's amazon. if you look at the holiday quarter, amazon actually had more revenue than walmart did. we're looking at tariffs particularly for amazon. we've heard kind of some some mixed ideas about what this could mean for this company. we've heard some people say it's kind of insulated. other people say it could be a concern. and actually

in filings amazon has lifted tariffs as a top risk for its business. how do you view the tariff risk when we're talking about amazon. >> well it seems that. >> amazon is has for a. longer period of. time cited it as a higher risk than walmart. i think that it's more recently been an issue. >> with walmart. >> i think that walmart has, over the. years diversified out of china. >> so they. >> have been able. to have a little bit of less of exposure, particularly. >> because more. >> of what they are selling are sectors like grocery. which are produced in north america anyway. >> as far as amazon, amazon certainly. is importing a lot. >> more chinese goods. certainly recently, particularly through. >> their third. >> party sellers. so there's absolutely there are concerns there. there's also talk of closing that de minimis shipping threshold, which is absolutely going to hurt a lot of those chinese sellers. now there are going to be companies like temu and. >> sheehan who are. >> more adversely affected. but

amazon absolutely is going to get caught up in that as well. >> because they are. bringing in so. many goods from the far east. >> all right. so as we try to just really kind of wrap our arms around these tariffs that again some may happen, some may not happen. what are the retail names you see being especially impacted this morning by the way we're looking at some of the moves. best buy down more than 1%. we saw some other stocks kind of moving macy's also believe was down. what are the stocks that when you're looking at the biggest tariff threat to their business. what are the names that come to mind for you. >> well, when we are looking at the three big regions. >> that are being discussed right now, you're looking at china, you look at mexico, you look at canada. the sectors. for china are likely going to be those where you're. >> manufacturing electronics. >> components. >> some apparel, though a lot of. >> the apparel has moved. >> to other. >> regions of the far east, like for instance. >> vietnam or maybe thailand. >> or india, where. there's not, at this moment. >> in time. >> talk about a significant

tariffs when you're looking at mexico. certainly the auto manufacturers, some produce companies. >> anybody that's. >> selling avocados is certainly going. >> to be impacted. tequila. >> and then in canada you have as i mentioned, you have lumber. you have maple sirup. >> so you. >> are going to have a variety of sectors from grocery to potentially some of those players that are selling mass goods as well as as hard goods. like electronics. >> yeah, it could be a broad impact. by the way, i was actually on amazon just kind of looking around ahead of this segment and third party sellers, they source a lot from china and just a lot from the us. so very interesting what the impact there will be. great to have you on. thank you very much. >> thank you. >> all right. coming up on worldwide exchange, the one word that every investor has to hear today in the stock pick that every investor needs to know. plus eyeing the federal reserve details on elon musk and his apparent plans to turn his efficiency efforts on the central bank. we'll be right central bank. we'll be right ba (vo) what does it mean to be rich? maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number...

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>> you found. >> it then? >> of course i did. >> good boy. >> welcome back to worldwide exchange. this morning we're watching shares of fedex, ups and amazon, three companies that could be directly impacted by a potential plan by the white house to take control of the post office. and that plan could disrupt the flow of trillions of dollars of e commerce. according to reports, the president is considering firing the postal board and placing that agency under the commerce department, and newly confirmed secretary howard lutnick. the post office is an independent agency with six bipartisan board members who were picked by the president and

then confirmed by the senate. the postmaster general, louis dejoy, he announced his plans to resign after leading the agency since 2020 through the pandemic and two elections, where, of course, we saw big jumps in mail in voting. president trump has been highly critical of the post office both before and after his election win, and he talked postal privatization at a december 16th press conference. >> there is talk about the postal service being taken private. you do know that? not the worst idea i've ever heard really isn't. you know, it's a lot different today with between amazon and ups and fedex and all the things that you didn't have. >> and speaking of amazon, fedex and ups, it's really not clear what that could mean for this. companies that have historically they've used the post office supply chain as well as other companies that again, they send trillions of dollars in packages through the post office. again, it's completely unclear, but it could be a very big concern for investors. a little context here. ups has signed a five year deal with the post office for

air delivery last year. and at the same time, the company said it would no longer use the post office for its shore post economy, shifting shipping service. that air contract that was previously held by fedex. on its most recent earnings call, ceo raj subramanian. he addressed post office privatization, saying that it's important that parcel delivery is not subsidized by taxpayers parcel carriers. they rushed to expand their capacity to capitalize on the e-commerce boom, leading to excess capacity in the market, according to logistics data firm ship metrics. and 2020 for e-commerce capacity was 120 million packages per day, while holiday peak volumes. just for context, they topped off at about 106 million packages per day. the post office actually posted a profit for the holiday quarter of 2024, after a big loss of more than $2 billion the previous year. but it's also warned that capacity increases by carriers like ups, fedex and amazon it could lead the post office to lose market share. this is a story that we will continue to follow. a lot more to come on this. all right, moving on. the department of

justice says it will drop a case against spacex, accusing the company of refusing to hire certain immigrants. this suit was brought during the biden administration. separately, the tesla and dodge chief says he is thinking about auditing the federal reserve as part of his efficiency efforts. musk kind of teasing the work that could come during conservative political action conference and national harbor, maryland. musk has been a frequent critic of the fed in recent years. musk also went down the fort knox road at cpac, saying that when it comes to the gold store there, that quote, i think we all want to see it. this is musk and president trump. they continue to explore a possible fort knox audit and any discrepancies in its gold reserves. but speaking with cnbc yesterday, former treasury secretary under trump steve mnuchin says hopefully there's just nothing to worry about. >> the gold. >> was there when. >> i visited it. i hope nobody's. >> moved it. i'm sure they haven't. i was the first. >> treasury secretary to. >> go there. >> and. >> i. >> think over 50. years there's very. >> serious security protocols in

place, obviously to protect the gold that i can't talk about. but we went, we. >> saw it. >> and i. if president trump wants. >> it to be. >> audited. >> that's obviously something that can be easily. >> and current treasury secretary scott benson adding the treasury does an audit every year and they quote, all the gold is present and accounted for. we're also watching shares of tesla this morning. a high level group of japanese officials, including the prime minister, reportedly drawing up plans for the ev maker to invest in nissan following the failed deal with honda. nissan has been on the hunt for a new partner or investor, with some board members suggesting apple or tesla as ideal targets, according to the financial times. taking a look right now, shares of tesla falling just about a third of a percent. nissan shares, however, spiking up almost 9.5%. all right. coming up here on worldwide exchange on the back of the financials getting hammered. the big bank. our next guest calls one of his top picks. it's leading the competition this year up 15% so far. we're going to reveal our mystery chart to reveal our mystery chart coming up right (grunting)

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number on your screen. >> call 883 98415. >> the day's top stories. >> driving wall street. >> brian sullivan joins kelly evans power lunch weekdays two. >> eastern, cnbc. >> overtime is about understanding what just happened in the markets that day and preparing for tomorrow. i'm looking to talk to all investors and sophisticated investors. beginning investors. i'm always learning. >> closing bell over time for eastern. >> cnbc get invested. join the club. >> he makes the complex simple and not to make irrational decisions. the return on investment for the club pays for itself. >> join the club new member savings and soon go to cnbc.com. join now. terms and restrictions apply. >> and welcome back to worldwide exchange as we close on the 6:00 hour. a check of a few big stories that we're following this morning. in the last hour, the senate wrapping up an all night voting marathon with republicans in that chamber getting their budget plan approved. but house republicans are pushing a different plan

that president trump has endorsed. a vote on that legislation is set for next week. inflation in japan climbing to a two year high last month, hitting 4%. the rise is giving support for the country's central bank to hike interest rates. also, executives at meta are set to receive bigger bonuses on the back of company wide layoffs. regulatory filings show top execs could earn bonuses as high as 200% of their base salaries. that's up from 75%. also, at a very interesting note, ceo mark zuckerberg he is not eligible for the new bonus plan. citigroup becoming the latest major company to abandon its diversity initiative. ceo jane fraser revealing the bank will no longer require a diverse lineup of candidates for job interviews. citi joins walmart, ford, google, disney, meta and many others in walking back their dei efforts. and major league baseball announcing a mutual decision to end a nearly 40 year partnership with disney's espn after this upcoming season. the two sides they were under contract through 2028, but there was a march 1st deadline to either opt in or opt out, and they decided to opt

out. clearly. all right, turning back to the market stocks looking to bounce back after yesterday's sell off. taking a look at futures right now. we've seen futures in the green all morning. s&p still up fractionally. the dow looks like it would open about 50 points higher. the nasdaq kind of holding steady all day up just about 30 points at least in the premarket. thursday's slide putting the dow the nasdaq in the red for the week. the s&p just just kind of holding on to very marginal gains for much more. let's bring in jay woods, chief global strategist at freedom capital markets. jay great to have you here. >> great to be here. >> let's start with your word of the day. a lot of action this week. we got tariffs. we got gold moving higher. a lot of concerns about the retail sector. what is your word of. >> well last. >> time it. was seat belts because. >> of volatility. >> coming to this market. now i look under the hood. it's like a time warp. >> we want to look at some. >> of these old stocks that led. >> us years. >> ago when all of a sudden they're coming back. so i. >> was. >> looking at ibm, cisco, at&t and the pick of the. day that we'll talk. >> about in a second. >> as stocks. >> that could be. >> safe in some of these volatile times. >> okay. so why do you think these what you're calling kind

of old school tech. why do you think it's accelerating right now. >> well. >> cisco is. >> breaking out of a. >> long term base. >> and they made acquisitions. >> cisco and ibm have. >> both. >> made acquisitions. >> ibm that. >> hardware company. >> software is where they're making their strides. that hashicorp acquisition and red hat have really done well. and the leadership there continues to thrive. technically the stock is in a. >> beautiful uptrend. >> but no. >> one talks about it because. >> it's not magnificent enough. cisco the same way. >> cisco continues to do well. that splunk acquisition. paying dividends in the cyber space. so those two stocks technology wise look phenomenal. >> all right. so very quickly we want to make time for your pick. we were tracking etf inflows earlier in the show. a lot of investors going into gold etfs and also bond etfs looking for safety in your mind. is it time to pull some money out of equities. is it time to look for a safety play. >> i think what. >> we're. >> doing is. >> we're. rotating and we're rotating into. >> some other markets. >> we're seeing china. catch a bid. >> we're seeing the european. markets do well. and then we're seeing stocks like ing. >> ibm. >> cisco and at&t. >> doing well. we don't talk about at&t.

>> making 52 week highs. starbucks making 52. >> week highs. so we're focused on a lot of. >> that high tech growth. >> but we're still seeing. >> some. >> strength underneath. >> all right. you already teased us. it's our mystery chart. let's get to your pick. what's your pick today and why. >> yeah citibank citigroup. apologies. >> the stock. >> has been on a. >> tremendous run under jane frazier's leadership. they've made some cost cutting measures and restructured. >> i know there was some negative news in the financials. >> that affected them yesterday. >> going back. >> to biden era m&a activity red. >> tape. >> we'll see. you know, over the short term that could be a. >> stumbling block. but citibank has continued to just do. >> extremely well under her leadership. technically, it's breaking out of a nice four year base above 7880. i love this stock. >> it looks like it's poised. >> to run into. >> the 90s, possibly. >> 100, by the end of the year. >> any concerns about the fed cooler? the latest official to say let's keep rates on hold for some time. >> no, i think this higher. >> for. >> longer narrative has been. digested by the banks. as we were raising rates, they continued. >> to thrive. >> i think this. >> stable environment.

>> will do well. >> for them. >> all right. jay woods, your pick for us today is citigroup shares up just about 15% year to date. great to see you as always. good seeing you. thank you very much. all right before i let you go, one more look at the futures this morning. we've been watching the futures all morning. after that sell off yesterday taking a look in the green across the board, as we said earlier the s&p up fractionally holding on to gains for the week. the dow looks like it would open about 50 points higher. that's going to do it for us. you have a great weekend. squawk box starts right now. >> good morning. >> layoffs under way. >> at the irs. and a new report says the trump administration is looking to dissolve the leadership of the postal service and take control. >> facebook parent meta is ramping. >> up bonus targets. >> for. >> top executives. this announcement comes just a week after. meta said it was looking to cut the bottom 5%. of performers. and the. >> senate has. >> passed its skinny budget resolution kind of like a skinny margarita. you know what that is? after a late night. >> vote a. >> rama, we're going to tell you what it could mean. >> for the. >> house's big.

>> beautiful. >> very fattening. bill. it's friday, february 21st, 2025. and squawk box begins right now. i think so. >> good morning. >> and welcome to squawk box right here on cnbc. we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen. becky is off today. it's a friday and we've got some futures in the green this morning. >> we've actually. >> we have not had a morning. >> where we. >> started in. >> the green. >> but we've. >> also seemed to end. >> almost in the opposite direction. >> almost. >> except for. >> yesterday that walmart. >> threw us the other way. people were looking for something. you think. >> they were. >> looking for something? i think they're looking for something. and i think. walmart gave it to them. yeah, i think in the details there you can overreact to what. walmart said. but. it they