data and we get tech earnings including nvidia. the headliner. >> the big one. that's the big one. >> to get dell we get salesforce. there's a number of. >> them. >> sure sure. but a lot. i mean when the head when the neck i guess of nvidia turns the head turns after it. see how many different companies are in the head? >> yeah. in the meantime, happy two year anniversary. >> happy two year anniversary. >> on the show. that does it for us here at overtime. >> fast money starts now. >> live from the nasdaq. >> market. >> site on a day markets are raised. >> all of their. >> post-inauguration gains. this is fast money. here's what's on tap tonight. >> a friday fades. >> stocks sinking and. closing near. >> their lows of. >> the session. the dow and. >> the nasdaq. >> putting in. >> their worst week. >> of. >> the year. consumer stocks. transports big tech. >> seeing the biggest losses. >> how do you make sense. >> of the action and. >> how do you set up. >> going into. >> next week. well we're going to tell you. but it wasn't all bad news. china stocks bucking today's downtrend alibaba closing in on the $150 mark for the first time. >> in over. >> three years. but is the recent run come too far. we'll

debate it. plus counting down to nvidia earnings. housing headaches roil the homebuilders and a market bright spot in aisle two. why staples cut a bid during the session i'm courtney reagan in this evening for. >> melissa lee coming. >> to you live from. >> studio b at the nasdaq. >> on the desk tonight we have tim seymour. karen finerman. courtney garcia and steve grasso. but we're going to start with a sea of red on wall street. the market selloff intensifying throughout the session as weak data on consumer sentiment and a huge drop in unitedhealth weighed on the markets. the dow plummeting nearly 750 points, seeing its worst day since december. unh responsible for 30% of that loss. we'll have more on that in just a few, but take a look at some of the other big losers today. discretionary stocks the biggest sector laggard led lower by casinos, cruises, cruise lines and more. industrials also taking it on the chin with ge nova, old dominion and united seeing outsized drops. and take a look at meta. a week ago it was riding a historic 20 day win streak. we were talking about it here a lot. and now it's down four days in a row and taking

the rest of the mag seven down with it. all this action coming ahead of nvidia's fourth quarter results on wednesday. the last of the mega-cap names to report. that stock now just barely positive on the year. shares still more than 12% off their all time highs. that was hit on january 7th. so where do we go from here. and does this week's action make nvidia more or less important. tim you get to kick us off. >> well welcome courtney. and you said like making sense of this. i think. that a lot of today was two dynamics that i think aren't aren't totally obvious. i think the data that we got this morning was really a big part of this, even though there was no headline data pieces. you had an s&p essentially inflation gauge. >> you had a. >> dynamic in terms of university of michigan, where you had some dynamics around. >> 5 to. >> 10 year expectations on the consumer. >> side, and they're the highest they've. >> been since 1995. >> and then. >> you look at some of the. >> the. >> composite pmis and. >> you look at where we are in real terms. >> they came in significantly slower. so there was kind of. slower growth. we had bad

housing data and all of it feeds through on inflation. you add that to i think there was a huge options x ray today. i'm not going to tell you that that was the reason i am going to tell you. i think that had something to do with the day when the vix was up almost. >> 20% and. >> you you had. >> extreme moves. in other words, if you look below the surface of the indices. >> it was actually a lot. >> uglier today than it even looks on. >> the indices. >> which looked pretty. >> ugly. >> which you pointed out. >> at the top of the show. i think there's dynamics next week. this weekend we have elections in germany, which i think are. >> very significant given how the tone has changed towards. >> the us's role. towards protecting europe and. >> a post world war. >> two environment, and a lot of things. that we never questioned, i think at least add to the backdrop. >> of yes, nvidia. >> does feel like. >> they need. >> to kill it. >> and when you look at the mag seven, it's been the mac seven. i mean, it really has been. and now the one stock that. people hated the most is the most defensive fear. not surprisingly, that's apple and environment where people are actually punishing high growth.

>> i mean, karen, does this just feel like an environment where the markets are just afraid to go? long into this weekend, tim brought up what's happening in germany. we know we have nvidia next week. obviously the day started out pretty, pretty poor with that consumer sentiment number that that really freaked me out about what consumers are fearing about how they feel and especially their inflation expectations. they believe 4.3%. that's the highest since november of 2023 for their one year inflation outlook. >> although some of the. >> data would. >> be counter to that. >> right. okay. >> so but to get to your question of about is nvidia so is it crucial for the market? i actually. think we've. >> seen a broadening. >> out right. >> we've seen financials. >> do really well. >> until. >> very recently. >> industrials do very. >> well until very recently. >> so we've seen. >> health care do very well. so i think it's not quite the when it was all mac seven and that was it. and there was nothing else to focus on. and that was central to it i think. >> it was more important. >> i mean i'm long on video, so i certainly care, but i think. >> it's a little. >> less important than it used to be, especially with we've got all this other noise, macro noise, tariff noise. you know,

some of the things tim talked about china, which was nowhere. china is now an interesting piece. so i think it's a little less important right now. >> all right. fair enough. courtney, you know, it was funny just two days ago, i believe i was on one of the shows and we had a guest that was talking about how the markets are less likely to have this knee jerk reaction when we get potential headlines about possible tariffs, that the markets have gotten a little bit better about waiting until we see actual news. but then today, you get this information from the university of michigan, consumer sentiment about how consumers are worried about tariffs, possibly to come. and maybe that sparked the sell off. so i can't quite figure out are markets worried about potential tariffs or not worried because today's action very different from earlier in the week. yeah. and i don't think people are able to completely shake those headlines yet. like maybe they are a little bit less of a shock to the system like the first time that you're hearing them. but clearly consumers are worried about inflation, whether that's coming from tariffs and whether that's coming from just inflationary forces, like the fact that china might actually be coming back online, that actually could start to export inflation kind of across the world. and you do want to keep an eye on that because we are

very much a consumer driven economy. so we do have a few big points coming up next week. nvidia is one of those which you pointed out. i think this for them is going to be something where they need to shake off the deep sea news, right? they dropped like 17% the day that that news came out. and so i think they need to show that that's not going to be a problem for them. they've already came out to say that they actually expect that there'll be more computing power, power needed based off of what happened with deep sea. and you've seen the capex come from all of these major firms have actually increased, like, i think $335 billion this year is earmarked to go towards ai spending. so i think they just need to prove that that demand is still there. they have a conference that's i think in march. i think that's probably going to be more of a market moving event than what we see next week. but markets are absolutely going to be watching that. yeah, there's just so much going on there. and it's so interesting that nvidia is going to have to take a little bit of a defensive position potentially, and spend some time on the call talking about that news. steve, what do you make of today's action and all the piling into these safety trades?

i mean, hershey shares up 4%. you don't see that very often. >> yeah. >> i mean. >> you know, for obvious. >> reasons. >> staples are considered. >> the safety bet for everything. >> that everyone has said. >> you have geopolitical uncertainty. >> you have tariff uncertainty. you don't know how china is. going to pan out. >> although alibaba gives a pretty. >> good indication of. >> of the. >> of the progress. if you look at the. >> market court. >> apple is the only one. >> that's up. >> since deep sea nvidia basically back to even microsoft. down down six 6 or 7%. >> google down 9%. >> amazon down 7%. >> now apple is being rewarded because think about how. >> much they're investing. >> in ai. 10 billion. what's everyone. >> else investing. >> 100,000,000,065 with. >> meta 85. >> with google. >> amazon 105. >> so deep sea has. >> proven their. >> their base case. >> their base. >> case is. >> that you can. >> do it on the cheap. you can do. ai investment.

>> on the cheap. >> apple is seen as a. >> staple and. thus has performed just like that, a conservative bet in the on the economy and the market. >> i want to go back to unitedhealth because obviously that was a big talker of the day, closing 7% lower, though, down more than 12% at its lows of the day. the wall street journal reporting the justice department is looking into the company's medicare billing practices, so that's putting scrutiny on diagnoses that trigger extra payments to medicare advantage plans. unh refuting that report, though, defending its track record, saying in a statement, quote, we are aware that the journal has engaged in a campaign to defend a system that rewards volume over keeping patients healthy and addressing their underlying conditions. any suggestion that our practices are fraudulent is outrageous and false. karen, what do you make of this whole thing? >> right. >> it's ugly. >> but i think there's more to come here. and, you know, when there's when there's something happens like this. i liken it to the google situation when antitrust came after them for

the way they sell ads. right. that's a huge thing, really important. and ultimately we got a bad verdict. and then at some point the market sort of forgets about it and shakes it off because we don't really have a resolution now. we don't know what the actual remedies will be, and there'll be some counter negotiation back and forth. i could see a similar situation here. i think this is sort of the first inning i would wait, i know it's not expensive, but i feel like there's more pr shoes to drop here, right? they cherry pick either cherry pick or they find from extensive number of people who claim that they were pressured into giving additional diagnoses that they didn't even test for. i think we'll see a lot of that kind of stuff come out. it probably won't sit well with the market, but ultimately it's going to take a long time to resolve this. and i think at some point the shareholders will just shake it off. >> okay, tim, i mean, this is not the first time, obviously, that united health care has come under scrutiny with in the government sort of getting involved, digging around. does that make you nervous, even if these things end up turning out

to be either forgotten by the market or they determined, well, there was no wrongdoing? >> well, i mean, i. >> agree with karen. i'm not sure you need to do anything with united. >> health. >> care, which which i think our viewers. >> know at different times. this is a. >> stock that we brought up as being one of the most. >> bulletproof stocks. >> in the market and one of the greatest charts over the last few years. but if you look at the start. >> this this. >> chart now, ultimately united health is probably somewhere right around three years support. i, i want to think that actually this is a buying opportunity. i think there's been a lot of media attention around risk coding. i think it's an easy political football. there's been. >> united health care. >> has had quite an extraordinary last three months, including some really sad news around their former ceo of one of their units. and we follow that news. so i mean, we know where some of the public opinion has been around this. at the end of the day, the reason why this stock was one of the best stocks in the market for three years was because that the earnings power and the margin attached to what was better than not, not even close to peer growth, is something that drove this stock

higher. i think those are things that investors can still hold on to. but whether you need to jump in on monday here, i don't know. but i do think at some point you're buying this weakness. >> courtney, it is trading at a 30 plus percent discount to the s&p. does that make it attractive at all. and it might. so i don't disagree with anything that karen and tim are saying here. but i do think if we do continue to see these headlines, if there is pressure and if the government really does try to actually put their foot down this time around, which i think what people are worried about, about 27% of their revenue growth in 2025 is tied to medicare advantage plans. so i think that's where you want to look at this and say, okay, if that is actually a risk, that could be a risk for the stock. so i don't know if it's a reason to stay out of it, but there will still be headlines that are going to affect in the short term. absolutely. steve, what do you make of united healthcare right now? today's headlines, or even the action that we've seen so far this year? >> yeah. >> i would go down i would go down the same path courtney did. if, you know, 27 to 32% of the revenues are tied to. medicare advantage. if you go to umanah, that's up close to 90% of the

revenues. that's why humana got hit as well. today, cvs is around 24%. but cigna is probably the buy on this. it's only about 4%. >> so that's. >> why you saw the rest of the space a lot weaker than than. cigna was. so i think the market does an excellent job out of sifting through it. the only problem that you have, or the huge problem that you have with united healthcare, is that for the last five years, it's only up 55%. so it's had its fair share of headwinds, and it's a bipartisan headwind that they're suffering from. so you have to be really choosy over which one you're picking. and you have to know really what is involved in the revenue mix. >> all right. well, we're going to continue with this discussion. let's bring in john ransom. he's managing director and director of healthcare research at raymond james. john, thank you for being here. i mean, it seems like you're not deterred at all from your bullish bullish call on unh. why do you think the markets are wrong and the reaction today. >> so as. >> one of the panelists. >> mentioned. >> if you. >> look at the last. >> five years. >> every time the stock gets to a 30% or more discount to the s&p, it's bounced. number one. >> number two, i. >> think a lot of this concern

is rear view mirror. >> so to. >> take the coating. >> i. >> totally agree with the coating scrutiny. >> but what. >> what. people have to remember this is way in the weeds. >> the government changed the coating. >> in 2024. it's called b28. so they eliminated. about 2300. >> codes when. >> they moved from icd nine to icd ten. >> which happened for. >> the rest of the world in 2015. >> so they eliminated a bunch of codes that triggered. >> these payments. >> and so looking in the past. >> and say, well, in 2021. >> they had a code that doesn't that got dramatically. >> curtailed with b28. >> unitedhealth has said this is a $15 billion funding hit over three years. so they ground through the numbers. last year by cutting about. 4 billion in sg&a. but i think. the focus. >> on coding. >> is fighting the last war. >> you know, you've noted that the biden administration was really hostile to united healthcare. do you see a difference coming up here with this new trump administration and how they may be treated? >> well. >> what biden, you know, agencies. >> are supposed. >> to reduce. >> funding like cms did that's supposed to go through congress.

so i don't. >> see another. >> $15 billion cut. >> coming out of trump. but the. >> next clue we're going to get. >> so look, it's uncertain okay. let's be clear. and then it's been a little delphic. >> but what's going to happen in. >> april is the final rate notice. >> will come. for the medicare advantage plans. >> and that will be a big tell, because in the. preliminary rate notice, biden. rushed this out. they didn't. >> include any data from 2024. >> 2024 is probably a 10% cost year for the plans. >> and so the big tell. is going to be, i think. >> in april when the trump administration pushes. >> out the. >> final rule, and then we're going. >> to have a. >> sense of how they're thinking about the industry. >> hey, john, getting back to really the fundamental thesis around the stock, and i know you're very bullish. i think you've got a 640 target on it. talk about even just the guide that they've set out there for 25. i mean i would argue this is very cheap. when you look at their mlr guide, i think, you know, relative to peers, again, i think this is one that if anyone can kill excuse me, blow through the bar here. i think it's these guys. >> yeah. >> they they. >> struggled last year. >> we called it winning ugly. and then this year you.

>> know the. earnings growth is about four points below their target. >> they're 13 to 16% target. >> as we look at 2026. >> that's when. >> i think you'll see. >> some real acceleration. >> and then in 2027. >> we fully lapped this z28. >> so look i agree with. >> what people said. >> i think this is going to. >> take a while because we're going to chop around, you know, in 2025. >> is going to be okay. not great. but again as the market looks six months forward, i think two things are going to happen. >> number one, i. >> think this. >> rate notice could be a lot better than the preliminary. >> and then. >> number two and this is the key medical. >> costs are starting to flatten out for. >> medicare advantage plans. the big problem with united is. >> at the same time. >> biden's been cutting or. >> biden cut. >> we had. >> a bad trend. >> and we think three years on, the cops get easier and easier. and we think the trend now again, first quarter. >> you could have some flu. >> noise. >> but we think. >> medical trends can. >> flatten out. and the. >> rate notice. >> could be an upside. >> surprise against. >> the. >> backdrop of the stock trading where it is. >> john it's karen. thanks for coming on. so let me ask you, do

you think that this investigation is just specific. >> to unitedhealth. >> or could widen out or do you see and do you see any shifting of where who's got bigger medicare advantage business a couple years down the line as a result of this? >> you know, i. >> don't know. >> the second question. the first question, but what i'd point out is. >> that there was no news broken today. this investigation was started by the outgoing. >> administration. and it. >> was just. >> we kind. >> of thought people knew. >> and so the way these things normally go, and i think you. >> guys said it perfectly. >> is. >> that we get. a settlement in two years. people forget about it, and it's going to be some immaterial. >> some of. >> their, you know, $460 billion market cap. i mean normally these are fairly small and again just the thing about coding this is so in the weeds and what happens is you get a judge and you get the government, you get the company and you. >> have a. >> squabble about it is exactly like taxes. it's one of you guys said before, did you document this coding appropriately? and again, just to wrap a bow on

this. >> i thought. >> it was so crazy that the government. allowed codes to drive payments and you didn't have to treat. and so eliminating that i think is a positive step. if you give truth serum to the industry, they would say, yeah, it got a little out. >> of control with all the supplemental benefits and the fact that. >> coding the government sort of set the game up. >> where they. >> created bad incentives. and so i think, again, this. >> is. >> kind of rearview mirror. >> stuff. >> but that's that's kind of where we are. but yeah, i agree also it's not going to be a tomorrow thing. i think it's going to be a grind up over the next few months. >> what do you think the code is for truth serum? >> i'm just kidding. >> john ransom, raymond james, thank you very much. i think it's called. >> pinot noir, right? >> yeah. pinot noir. there you go. i like that. that was good. corny. i'm going to give you the final word on this one. yeah, i think this is something we're going to have to continue to watch these headlines, because i think a lot of good points are brought up. but no real new news was out today. this is something that has been out there. but i think the question that people have is, is this new administration actually going to

take some action on it? because what you're seeing is they are trying to cut costs and do a lot of things that previous administrations haven't. so thing is, should they take this administration more seriously? i don't know the answer to that, but that's what the markets are trying to figure out right now. fascinating stuff. well coming up, consumer staples the only market sector higher today. the names doing the heavy lifting in the grocery aisle. that's up next. and the homebuilders on shaky foundations. what a week of bad data and disappointing earnings means for the housing trade. that's up next. >> you're watching fast money here on cnbc. we'll be right back. >> it's not if the markets will turn. it's when. and howard capital management our proprietary family of funds actively navigates complex market landscapes while seeking to safeguard. >> your tomorrow. >> we aim to empower. >> investors. >> delivering opportunities with a tactical mathematical approach. start investing. >> with confidence today. >> contact your financial

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ssc, which is the technology sector, is up 136% or thereabouts. >> so you have to be willing. >> to, you know, short term if you want a place to hide and you don't want to go into treasuries and you want to wait until the smoke clears, fabulous. if you want to, if you if you want to go longer term markets on average go up 10% a year. they have dips, yada yada yada. but the place where you're going to get the outsized growth is going to be technology, not staples. but i can't argue with hiding in them for the next couple of weeks slash months. >> tim, do you find safety here? >> i think. >> i think not only do i find safety, i think there's a breakout coming. i think these are stocks that at least if we remain in a higher volatility environment, and certainly we sketched out a lot of uncertainty. i'm not saying that we're going there. and ultimately my broad view on the market is markets are going higher. having said that, these are companies that have proven that they've got the balance sheet to continue to buy back stock. in fact, monday we're having julian emanuel from evercore on who's written a really interesting piece on companies that are low volatility stocks that actually are buying back stock. that's a

great formula here. and some of these names also have idiosyncratic stories to themselves. i mean, we know kind of the failings or the story around budweiser, for example, and why that was such a troubled stock because of their marketing campaigns and things that at least were perceived as missteps. this is a company that's been on a tear. you look at coca-cola, they just gave you numbers. they're showing you they're actually outgrowing their peers, even in a segment that doesn't do so well in the us, but more broadly foreign. if you look at the story around mondelez, campbell's, you know, these are stories that i don't think are perfect stories. and staples came under a lot of pressure on rising input costs and valuations that didn't make sense. but in this environment, i like that trend. and the xlp above 84 is breaking out to all time highs. >> karen, before we go, i got to turn you on walmart. i mean, to me the action feels overdone, especially yesterday. and then again today selling off. so now down about 9% for the week. what do you make. >> yeah as i said yes i thought the quarter was really good. was good. i thought the guidance was fine. i don't know why they needed to sort of, you know, go out on a limb when there is a lot of uncertainty. they also did say january was really good,

right? so i think the only thing wrong with walmart that it was too high going in. and i'm long, i was long two days ago and yesterday and today remain long and i'll be long next week. i liked it. >> all right. well, there's a lot more fast to come. here's what's coming up next. >> digging in on the housing data. a huge week of numbers and a big dent in the homebuilder trade taking center stage. we'll dive into whether these names can build the foundation for a rebound. plus, can a slew of earnings next week set the stage for a retail rebound? the options set up ahead of make or break. reports from home depot, tjx. >> and more next. >> you're watching fast money. live from the nasdaq market site live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back at ameriprise financial we know our clients are so much more than clients. they're go-getters and game-changers, legacy-leavers and visionaries, healers and confidants. the goals that matter most to you matter most to us. helping you achieve them is what we do best.

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economy. perhaps they need to call it. >> something else. >> experience the power of cnbc pro. track your portfolio from every angle on one optimized platform. become a smarter investor with the power of cnbc pro. go to cnbc.com now. >> welcome back to fast money. stocks tumbling to end the week. as investors grapple with uncertainty surrounding the trump administration's economic policies and some weak economic data. the dow losing more than 800 points at its lows, the s&p having its worst day since december and the nasdaq falling more than 2%. small caps closing below their 200 day moving average for the first time since november 2023. the russell 2000 losing nearly 3% today. block

now trading under ticker x, y, z dropping after missing earnings expectations. bank of america, though, says it may be time to buy the dip. down 18% and hims and hers shares plunging after the fda took semaglutide off its shortage list. that means the company will no longer be able to manufacture compounded versions of the highly popular weight loss drugs like wegovy. >> can we just say a i mean square block x, y, z? >> it's absurd. >> okay. i mean. >> pick your name. >> to deal with this. >> what? >> at first i saw x, y, z. i was like, oh, i don't know what the name is yet. oh, no, that's that's what. >> x, y z pdq b i'd. >> that's the name or the ticker that i always still call. >> it square. i didn't. >> mean block. i know square block. no, i know it's. >> i'm sick of this. >> it's a good it's a good side. it's all right. it's been a big week for housing data. existing home sales fell nearly 5% from december to january, a steeper drop than the street expected. earlier this week, we got data on housing starts and home builder sentiment, which dropped to five month lows. all the news has kept homebuilder stocks deep in the red. for more on the

state of the housing market, let's bring in orphe. thank you so much for joining us, senior economist at zillow. we've certainly had a lot of news to go through, but let's talk, i guess, about the existing home sales first and the disappointment there. >> look, despite the higher for longer rate. >> environment. >> i think home buying demand has proven resilient. existing home sales are. >> still about 2%. >> higher than. >> a year ago. >> and even. >> the new. >> home sales, you know, you look at. >> the way. >> they ended. >> last year, right. >> also ended on a strong note. builders continue to make the math work for homebuyers. >> they're building. >> more efficiently. >> they're providing incentives. >> for three out of five homes. and if you look at the share of builders cutting their prices, it's lower than. >> a year ago. >> all of that to say, look, higher mortgage rates are higher than they were last year. >> and yet. >> you're still seeing that kind of activity. i think. that's you. >> know. >> i think we're making too much of the headline number. remember these homes that sold in january

that that are in the report went under contract in december at a time where mortgage rates were actually rising. since i think mid january mortgage rates have eased. the combination of more sellers this spring, new listings on zillow are up 12% from a year ago. that with easing. rates later this year, should actually make for a more interesting home shopping season than we had last year. >> but the new construction starts also weaker in january than a year ago. >> that's right. so if you look at the data, the january data, it's all about the weather. the weather problems that we had in the south, the unusual winter freeze. you look at the starts where it starts, fall starts, fell 19% in the south, 15% in the northeast, and i think 9% in the midwest. but they were up 25% on the west coast. and so, you know, again, it's mostly weather, weather disruptions.

rates have actually eased slightly since mid january. so i think although rates remain a key factor, home buyers haven't given up on home ownership. and we're seeing you know we're expecting activity to actually continue to pick up. let me let me add one more thing. roughly 50 to 70% of sellers end up buying again, historically, that increase in the number of homes for sale, right, has been positively linked with an increase in the measure of home buyers in the housing market, an increase in search activity. and so that's why we're somewhat optimistic that home sales could actually rebound slowly in 2025. >> perfect. karen, thanks for being on zillow holder by the way. i love the platform. great business, but you need more sales to go through. and i'm wondering what do you think is sort of the magic rate for mortgages or the amount of time that needs to go by to release a significant portion of those stranded houses that people who

have low mortgages just can't, can't seem to want to get rid of yet? >> look, those people are coming back. we have existing homes that are up 12% coming on the market, up 12% from a year ago. so those people are coming back. i think what we need is more certainty, more more consumer confidence, business confidence. you know, a lot of workers are kind of stuck in place right now. not sure what to do with, you know, with hiring hiring rates lower. you know, we need less economic policy uncertainty. i always say that when people are uncertain about the future, they tend to sit on their wallets. and so we need to we need to kind of like that to die down on the policy. right. that to dial it down a little bit on the policy changes and, and allow people to kind of move on and live their lives, people are going to move. and i think the home shopping season is gearing up to be a little bit stronger than it was last year. zillow forecast that home sales should end the year. we should see about 4.11 million home sales this year, a slight rebound from from the 30 year

low that we saw last year. >> from zillow. senior economist, thank you so much for joining us. steve, i want to get your thoughts here. what do you think buying opportunities ahead of the spring selling season. >> yeah, it's. >> tough to tough. >> to say when you. >> when you. >> look at the mortgage rates as a whole, 63% of us households have a mortgage rate below 4%. 73% of a mortgage rate below 5% and 83%. obviously, the increases have a mortgage rate below 6%. >> so people. >> live in a mortgage, they don't live in a house. so it's kind of tough to have them. move out of a house. so existing home sales are going to be tough. i captured on geographically, i saw that the midwest was the actual, actually the only area that grew in existing home sales. lennar has a big presence there. so if you look at demand and where where it's strengthening up, i would i would take a second look at at

lennar. and obviously d.r. horton is the largest home builder. so you're going to get a natural variation across geographic locations. but once again of course it all depends on that mortgage rate coming down. and we're a long way from kansas right now. >> i wouldn't be surprised. midwest is best. i always say, why don't you guys believe me sometime? >> certainly. >> especially for music, right? >> absolutely. you know that. >> well, coming up, all the details on retail ahead of a huge week of earnings, how the options market is shopping, the biggest reports right after this. >> missed a moment of fast catch us anytime on the go. follow the fast money podcast. we're back right after this. >> individually, each of us is great, but from here you can see we're one big team. at atlassian, we believe real progress takes all of us working together on new sources of energy. cars that drive to the

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lowe's and tjx all set to report. mike co has the implied moves on those stocks. and a trade on one company that actually could disappoint. mike what you got. >> yeah. so home. >> depot that one's implying. >> a move of about 4%. >> that's bigger. >> than the. >> 2.5% that the. company has averaged. >> lowe's also implying a move. >> of about. >> 4%. although that's closer to their. >> average, which is about 3.8%. >> tj is. >> implying a move. >> of about.

>> 3.3% or so. and now both home. >> depot and lowe's. >> traded well above average daily options volume. home depot, unsurprisingly, the busier of the two and the busiest contract. >> in home. >> depot with a weekly 3.85 strike. puts that. expire next friday. over 1300. >> of those traded. >> and that. >> included an institutional. >> purchase of 500. and the buyer paid about 6.7. for those. now, of. >> course. >> the stock did trade. >> lower throughout the. >> day. >> so those went up in price already. and for those who are inclined to follow and make a bearish bet, i actually think buying the 385 365 put spread probably makes more sense, because if we take a look at the. historical move for home depot, moves. >> to the downside. >> of greater. >> than 5%. >> which is about where that 365 put resides are really quite rare. so i think that's a less expensive. >> way to make a bearish bet in home depot. >> at this. >> point. >> if you're inclined to lean that way. >> i was just i was just thinking that home depot rarely has these big swings after its earnings. mike walmart's still getting beaten down after earnings. yesterday. we talked

to karen about it a little bit before. what's your take on that one. >> yeah. you know this. >> is. >> an interesting one. i was a. >> bit perplexed. >> by walmart. >> i have to say. going into. >> the number to begin with. >> because i mean, it was. >> trading probably 38, 40. >> times forward at. >> that point. and that is back when. >> you know. >> most of the street was. >> looking for 5% top line growth. now they're forecasting 3 to 4%, which net of inflation is really no growth at all. and it's trading even now at probably 3435 times forward, which is very peculiar when you consider you can get better top line growth, better bottom line growth at a much lower, multiple and better diversification. if you simply bought the s&p. and that's over and above the fact that in the 70% consumer driven economy, consumers are clearly based on the most recent debt and delinquency figures under significant pressure. and, you know, i mean, great for them that they've got groceries and things like that. but you could always buy kroger at ten times if you wanted that. >> fair enough. mike, thank you very much. karen. are you still at home depot? >> i am in home depot. >> okay. what do you make of mike's trade here? >> it's interesting. i mean, it seems like some interesting

protection. i one thing that stood out to me though, on the walmart call, they was patios, which i was a little bit surprised. i think that probably that would be a nice little thing for home depot. i'm not that optimistic given what's happened in the home builders, but this is one i own for the long term. >> do you ever find yourself in home depot? >> yes. >> i mean, and what do you go to home depot for? i mean, it may not be a fair question here. >> yeah. no it's nothing. no, there's nothing like, embarrassing or anything. no, i don't really caulk or that sort of thing. i don't. >> know. >> it's a good point though. >> actually it is. >> they've got cleaning supplies there. >> i do like. i do like tools. i have a toolbox. >> and that's why she's a cool chick. i love. >> allen wrench set. >> yeah. >> got it. >> got a couple of those. >> they've got cleaning supplies, picture hangers. >> by the way, if you don't caulk every six months you could have problems. >> you're going to have mold. >> yeah. and you leave. >> those cleaning supplies to clean that. >> little crack in the caulk. get in there. >> courtney. what do you make of. do you shop? no, i'm just kidding. do you. what do you make of mike's call here on home depot? it doesn't normally have

really big earnings swings. it's sort of. so if the options are applying that it does, then maybe you're in for some money. yeah. and i agree with karen on the long term hold here. i think this is something when you see an aging housing inventory, you see all this demand going towards housing. like longer term that is going to be an opportunity. i think the question is like, when is that pent up demand actually going to come to fruition into home depot? i don't know if any of this has to do with like the wildfires that happened in la and the, the, the idea that more people are going to have to rebuild there, which would be a benefit for home depot. so i don't know if that's what some of that call has to do with, but i think that probably will be some of the things that people are looking to see next week. i am curious to see if they give us any details on their exposure to mexico and canada. i know they they source a lot in what they say, north america, but they don't break it out by country. yeah, i'm hoping that they start to so we can figure that out a little bit more. well, coming up, a baba bounce in one of china's top tech stocks. how to tackle this red hot trade right after this. more fast into.

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when emergency strikes, first responders rely on the latest technology. that's why t-mobile created t-priority built for the 5g era. only t-priority dynamically dedicates more capacity for first responders. industries. >> find out who has made this year's list. meet the new icons. the cnbc changemakers revealed monday on squawk box. >> welcome back to fast money alibaba delivering gains even in today's sea of red shares of the chinese e-commerce giant jumping almost 6% today. the stock up 15% for the week and nearly 77 0% already this year. meanwhile, the kraneshares china internet

etf now up six weeks in a row. that's the longest streak since before the pandemic. and our next guest suggests there's a lot more upside ahead. let's bring in china expert david riedel of riedel research. thank you so much for being here with us. really appreciate it. you know, in october, you told fast money you were worried about the longevity of the china rally. so it sounds like you're changing your two month tune on this one. >> i just just. >> extending it a little bit. >> i'm still worried about the back half of this year, and i'm a little bit worried about 2026. given trade war fears and tariffs and things like that. but i think there's a trade trading. >> opportunity here. >> we were early on our call on being positive on baba, and i think we're going to. >> stick with it here for at. >> least. >> the next. >> few months. >> so why are you so positive? do you think it's because of beijing? you think they're going to be more supportive of their markets? >> they really are. they definitely need to develop. their domestic capital markets, their equity markets. >> and they're really putting their money where their mouth is. they're making more money available for share buybacks. >> they're encouraging dividends. >> the idea that she met.

>> with. >> jack ma the other day and publicly. called him out in a positive way. >> it's a far cry from a few years ago. >> when jack. >> ma. >> was essentially in hiding. >> because he. >> because beijing was taking pot. shots at him. >> yeah, that was sort of exactly my next point. i mean, why is beijing now seemingly more supportive of these tech companies than they were several years ago? and i think people were relieved to see jack ma, where there were obviously a couple of years where we were sort of wondering where he was. >> that's right. >> he did he did go undercover for a little while there. but i. >> think the global enthusiasm following deep seat has reminded. china that these tech wins. can be positive. public relations pr opportunities. >> for beijing. >> also, as. >> they see. >> around the world. >> that the external environment. >> is getting a little more difficult. >> i think. >> they. realize they need to have. >> some home grown technology. >> talent. >> so they may need. >> to be a little bit. >> more encouraging. >> of. >> their tech. pros or their. >> newfound tech. billionaire folks. >> that are running some of those companies. >> i think. >> hence the rehabilitation.

>> of jack ma. >> yeah, david's tim, and we've talked about this for years, you and i. i think jack ma reasserts, resurfacing from his weekend at bernie's is extraordinarily important and more than just a coincidence. talk about though, the earnings power of baba and talk about a company that everybody talks about e-commerce. i mean, this is and, you know, this is the amazon of china, their cloud business. the revenue growth there is extraordinary. i mean, to me this is an earnings multiple story. as much as i've said it's not reliant on change in stimulus in china. this is an earnings growth story that i think is underappreciated. >> this has exactly the same earnings. >> dynamic as we've talked about. >> as amazon. >> you know ability. >> to make. >> a tremendous. >> amount of. >> money on their cloud services, their web services alibaba. >> is in exactly. >> the same position. sure. they benefit from a little consumer. sentiment improvement. >> they benefit. >> from a little beijing activity to help boost the hometown heroes. >> but baba is a. >> great business with

tremendous profit potential. >> david riedel, thank you so much for joining us. we'll follow this trade for sure. steve, what do you make? is this time to put some money to work in china? >> well, as you stated on the intro on this, it's already up 70%. alibaba. alibaba is the obvious proxy when it comes to china. but when you look at, you know, a jd or a baidu. >> i think. >> it's more based on valuations as well. i think tim touched on this a little bit. when you look at baba, it's trading at 21 times. when you look at jd it's around 13 times. you look at baidu, it's around ten times. so the restored relationships with the government, the valuations versus us tech and obviously the earnings runway, it's a big deal that they restored those relationships with the government. the government. really was the was the biggest headwind to chinese related stocks. but if you're looking for the china rebound play by

alibaba has had an incredible run. and maybe. >> you. >> go a little bit further and a little bit deeper into some of those other names that i just mentioned. >> courtney, how do you consider, though, the tensions between us and china when you're looking to invest in chinese stocks, is there any risk there of these tensions getting heightened? well, i mean, there obviously is risk, but i think that's probably the thing that people aren't considering is, you know, trump came into office and people said, oh yeah, china stocks are not where you want to be. and it almost becomes the obvious play, right? because people are so pessimistic about it. it's probably a better entry opportunity. this is something we all have to pick our acronyms early in the year. i think all of us have baba in ours, do we not? >> yeah. i mean, if baba was in mine last year. >> i. >> know. >> i know early. >> yeah. no, yours mine and got in his tube. as we know. >> this is something i think there i story clearly is paying off and you're seeing their revenue. cloud growth was up like 13% in here. but also when you look at the e-commerce business, the idea that that was coming in strong means that the chinese consumer probably is coming in stronger than people are giving them credit for. right. so i think that's what you want to look at when you

look at a stock like this. i would try to put away some of the political headlines. yes, there are risks, but i think you're ultimately going to be investing in this company. yeah. the chinese consumer obviously something everyone is watching closely. i don't think we know the full story there yet. well, coming up, security blanket stocks, the names helping each of our traders sleep at night in this topsy turvy market. that's up next. and here's a sneak peek at the cramer cam. jim's chatting exclusively with the ceo of eqt. gets that full interview at the top of the hour on mad money, but more fast back on mad money, but more fast back in two. (grunting) at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. ( ♪♪ ) partnering to unlock new ideas, to create new legacies, to transform a company, industry, economy, generation. because grit and vision working in lockstep puts you on the path to your full potential. old school grit. new world ideas.

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>> more if you're trading big bucks. >> get invested. >> join the club. >> as a woman, i wanted to experience financial independence. >> and become financially. >> independent in my retirement. >> join the club new member savings and soon go you think those phone guys will ever figure out how to keep 5g home internet from slowing down during peak hours? their customers have to share a wireless signal with everyone in their area. oooh. you know, it's kinda like when you bring a really big cake for your birthday, and then there's only a little, tiny sliver left for the birthday girl.

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your melatonin? what's your sleeping pill? >> yeah. so? so you always get an outsized return on tech as, as we've all seen on the show. i'm going with apple as we started off the show up 11% since that deep sea headline. while the rest of the space is either flat or down substantially. and you have a great brand, you have recurring revenue. you have services, business services, revenue. that's increasingly a bigger percent of total revenue. they have a 2.35 billion installed base, which can only help the services revenue that comes out of it. it's seen as a refuge for the entire market, and it's a staple. so that's the way i sleep better at night. >> okay, you sleep better with apple. karen likes pfizer. courtney, i trust commodities here. i think one thing that the markets have been continuing to weigh out is inflation. and that inflation really is likely not under control at this point. i think that's what the bond markets have been telling you

for months here. and that's where commodities can be a really good play as a hedge. and i think also as you are starting to see some optimism coming with china, and if they are actually coming back online, that could continue to increase commodity prices and potentially inflation. so that's actually something i would have as a hedge here, especially when markets are down like they were today. okay. >> tim j&j and it's been it's been non-correlated to markets. it's had its own issues. it's been to me a company that was undervalued. but the tax resolution looks like there may be some resolution. you don't have to rely on that. there's also an announcement they made. they had an investor, an analyst essentially investor day where they talked about developments in medtech and a couple of products that actually have been on hold that are now back in the market. stock looks like it's getting up near really a three year breakout level. and again, i think it's you know, if you're worried about markets here, j&j is not trading on market dynamics. that's something that allows you to sleep. >> do they have sleeping pills. >> i'm sure they have a few. but you know. >> just asking for a friend. >> for a friend. >> yeah. well i can't recommend stocks. but if you haven't tried a weighted blanket i mean, amazing. >> i cannot a weighted blanket. >> weighted. >> yes. what does. >> that mean? well, it's like a

heavy blanket. like mine weighs 15 pounds. so, like, it feels like a hug. >> be suffocated. >> no. it's amazing you got a weighted like to try it. it's amazing. all right. anyway, up amazing. all right. anyway, up next, your final trades. wave hello to zane. he's king of the... ping. for every 1 sentence spoken on a call, he has 3 comments 2 memes and 4 emojis to contribute. a flood of positivity... during every. single. meeting. but oh how his passion for product management takes your team from level zero to level... zane. you need zane. zane needs benefits. work with principal so we can help you help zane with a retirement and benefits plan that's right for him. let our expertise round out yours. only the servicenow platform connects every corner of your business, putting ai to work for people. - hr? - yeah. - it? - yeah. - r&d? - yup. omg? uh... oh, i see. uh... yeah. that's the department i work in. alright, enough of that.

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first responders rely on the latest technology. that's why t-mobile created t-priority built for the 5g era. only t-priority dynamically dedicates more capacity for first responders. this was an excellent quarter. >> for disney. >> and the weakness in the. >> stock since the quarter is indeed a clear buying opportunity. >> mad money next. cnbc. >> it's time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. steve, kick us off. >> teva pharmaceutical with the headlines. the negative headlines today made me think about teva, which has had its own legal challenges. maybe this gets pushed aside with the unh challenges. and people start to look favorably on the stock. >> teva. >> tim. >> j&j. but i feel like i need to change my final trade to a

weighted blanket. anyway. >> go get. it's going to change your life, karen. >> yes. starting a big retail earnings next week. tjx i like it. >> and courtney garcia alibaba you were saying should you still be invested here i would say yes. a lot of people are still under invested in china. take a look at this. thanks for watching fast money. mad money with jim cramer starts right now. >> thanks for. my mission is simple to. >> make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. >> there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey i'm cramer. >> welcome to mad money. >> welcome to cramerica. >> other people make friends. i'm just trying to save you little money. my job is. >> not just to entertain, but to put things in context. >> so call me at one 807 three cnbc or tweet me jimcramer. all right. >> we got two markets right now. >> one is. >> all about momentum. the other is all about old fashioned growth. momentum is nasty. >> right now.