by four. the nasdaq down by ten. and new this morning cisco and nvidia announcing an ai data center partnership aimed at making it easier for companies to adopt ai systems. in the proposed collaboration, cisco will build systems combining nvidia spectrum silicon with cisco software. cisco up 2% in the premarket. nvidia shares up slightly. that does it for us today. make sure you join us tomorrow. right now it's time for squawk on the street. >> good tuesday morning. >> welcome to squawk. >> on the street i'm. >> carl quintanilla. >> with jim cramer david faber at post nine of the new york. >> stock exchange. >> futures relatively steady as the market weighs earnings from home depot. and we inch our way to nvidia tomorrow. oil is barely hanging on to 70. and the ten year yield near a two month low now at 4.3. a roadmap begins with these china chip controls. >> the trump. >> white house. >> reportedly looking. >> to expand the biden era semiconductor restrictions. >> plus d.o.j. >> pushback federal workers. suing over elon musk's.

>> what did you do. last week? >> email. and home depot delivers. >> a beat. >> it snaps. >> a streak of eight straight. >> quarterly sales declines. >> let's begin. >> with the. >> markets. >> after yesterday's late sell. >> off in tech jim. but we can talk consumer. discretionary too. >> look, the late sell off i was addressing this last night on mad money. i'm tired of it. i'm tired of it because it just seems totally artificial. i mean, someone comes in and blitzes the market in the last 20 minutes. there's no reason to do that other than you want to take it down. i don't know why. i've seen this periodically in my career. these are what i regard as being deliberate, not manipulation because that's too strong, but a deliberate attempt to send the market down because the market can't handle the level of selling. typically, by the way, buybacks stop at 330. so if you really want to get a good price, you wouldn't just come there and jam it. this is someone who wants the market down or several accounts who want the market down. you know, david, this is no sin to point it out. there are a lot of people in the let's say someone

wanted to mark it up. you know, they'd come in at the end of the quarter and take it up. yeah. some people want the market down. it made no sense to come in. this is the third day that they blitzed the close. >> but we never know who. the they is. >> well, no. and you never will know who the they. >> i mean. >> listen again, we talk so often. >> about the. >> enormous power. >> of the. >> of the. >> the algorithmic. >> trading firms. there are so many of them. >> right. they think they're going to make money. they're not doing that. >> you know. >> that typically you think of as sort of using fundamentals actually. >> have large portions of which. are run by. >> rocket. science and the like. >> but i don't know if it's them. >> i do know everybody. >> still seems to own the same stuff. and so there's a lot of pain out there whenever that happens. >> morgan stanley saying that you're underweight and these big caps. but then again, if you were actual weighting these big caps, you'd have 30% nasdaq, you know, and it would be mostly mag seven. so do you. underweight may not be as important, but this is what people are talking about. look people are talking about nvidia. and there's a nice deal this morning with cisco. i think it's actually much more

important than people realize. cisco is the first to qualify. it's going to be a real partnership. and that's chuck robbins working closely with jensen. but there is an overwhelming sense that this market keys on nvidia at a moment when we have no idea what the federal government is going to do to nvidia. so the federal. >> government, what does that mean? >> well, i mean, they might they literally might just say, you know what? we're we're going to block nvidia not just the low end nvidia but everything nvidia you know i had lam on and i had a kla on. and they've already taken the big hit. they could take another hit lock. >> as in prevent exports. >> of block and say listen you're not going to get anything from the united states. they get a huge amount of weight. who nvidia and nvidia big export market china. are they going to take it away. right. >> but that's the. low end chips. >> no i'm saying that maybe the government says how do you know that the government doesn't say no more low end chips. oh no i don't. because if you add a lot

of low clarify. >> what. >> it is. you know, i'm talking about i'm talking about you have a company that reports and maybe they're not in control of their forecast. and the forecast has been very important. >> no, but you spent. >> a lot of time talking about the biden administration's ruling and the very end of the biden administration, and how deleterious. >> that was to nvidia. >> and now you're talking about this as still a possibility. >> well, because the biden administration was quite content with having the lowest end chips go to china, maybe this administration and this issue, perhaps led by peter navarro, says nothing. you get nothing. >> well, meantime, there's a reuters piece today that h 20 orders are higher because a lot of these chinese firms are trying to leverage the deep c model. >> well, how about if they they ban h 20. we don't know. >> and just. >> to. point out. >> h 20 is. >> sort. >> of that. >> low end that's like instead of the hh2 hundred. >> so you can kind of figure. >> out where, yeah, it's not a tinker toy versus a, you know, caterpillar, but it is without a doubt something that is that had passed muster with the previous

administration because it was not really thought to be capable of military. >> meanwhile, yesterday. >> about this time, we were talking about microsoft's capex plans. >> we do have. >> a. piece now where microsoft says we will strategically may strategically adjust our spending and infrastructure. >> right now, their sister, mother, sister, mother, at this point, i don't know. >> i listened to nadella did that long podcast. of course, all these ceos, now they just sit down for hours with people you've never heard of, answering very nice, friendly questions. >> you've never heard of. yeah. well, how about if you were did. >> you ever. >> did you. >> i didn't know. i mean, maybe a lot of people knew. >> what's his name. yeah, i remember. >> huge internet presence i. >> don't know. >> no. >> they're very well. viewed and watched. >> and listened to. >> well yeah, but he. >> was i mean it's actually. >> worth. listening to and i tried. >> i did listen to much. >> of it last night. >> but you're right, carl. i mean, within that there was some. >> and. >> we've we've already referenced it yesterday. >> nadella talking about. >> sort of. >> scale and how important. >> that is. and it won't. >> be winner take all. there are

lots of potential winners. but also talking a little. >> bit about. >> the idea of over time scaling back. >> but it just to go back to how i started with this, i look nvidia is a is the stock that people say is the biggest battleground. and there are people who think it's dramatically overvalued. and i don't get that. one of the things i've asked them, i put two questions to them. i know you have a thing tomorrow where you actually can ask the cfo some things, and i don't have the yes. yeah, but i said, look, i need to know what kind of you have. the biggest you have this concentration of five customers. maybe i want the pastiche, if not mosaic. of what? of what apple has. maybe i want billion customers. that's not going to happen. >> well. >> no, of course not. it's rhetorical. >> i understand. >> so are you. >> worried about tomorrow night or not? yes, you are. i am. oh, all. >> right. >> i see. >> i wouldn't. >> have picked that up. >> i am worried because i think if it really turned out to be

that hard to make. blackwell. and we do know, by the way, that blackwell got, you know, that dell's got a good relationship in some micro of hp was late. but if i'm not, i mean, i'm kind of look, i'm looking at the government. i thought the government was off the table. >> well, there's i. >> feel like. >> sorry to interrupt. >> why do you feel. >> like it is on the table? >> because the stories this morning said it was on the table. you got in because i made it up. i had a nightmare. >> navarro sent. >> you some coded message. what's going on? let's just find out. enough with your guesswork, okay? >> all right. >> he's going to. we'll. we'll get on the phone with navarro. >> and weather tomorrow. >> they're going. >> to know. >> i mean. >> i just want to. carl's point. you are. you're worried you're bringing up the government for the first time in a while in terms of. >> because this. >> idea of banning the lowest end chips in china. >> well, i mean, look, let's understand. >> where's that. >> coming from? the they say that they're going to do more. okay. well what is there to do more. they've already restricted almost everything. they send them the lowest end chips. they obviously still can use those.

that's it okay. and they've restricted and i don't know look remember the biden administration on the saturday night before they ended. they had 18 countries. yes. but i'm just saying that like i feel confident that nvidia has a good business model, but i don't know whether if the government says, listen, we're not going to let you sell chips to all the countries that you just did a charming charm tour to. look, if you're not worried. no. >> listen. >> and to carl's. >> point and the story, deep seek did manage to do something that is relatively competitive with. >> okay with you saw you. >> can do a lot. >> with them, but you saw the video about jensen saying that it's really post-training and that this is very good. >> yes. >> and what do you think? >> what did i think of. >> what the post-training video? i think. >> inference is going to be what it's all about, right? >> no train post train and post train and inference. but i also. thought that. >> they did show, you know, in terms of reinforcement learning, mixture of experts, the things that they use to deep seek, which are obviously available to those.

>> who also. have similar products. >> here and are. >> known. >> but is a way to both potentially not use as much compute power and power. >> it doesn't work for you. get a lot out of it. it doesn't work for humanoid. it doesn't work for video. it doesn't work for self-driving. now you're speaking in. >> favor of nvidia. >> and all the reasons why. >> chip sales are going to. continue to be quite strong. >> i am speaking in favor of nvidia. it doesn't mean i'm not worried about the quarter. okay. look, i. what is the government mean when it says it has to crack down more? the government was cracking down so severely on these guys that i'm shocked that they have to crack down more. i mean, they're probably willing to give anything to the kremlin. >> that's another story we'll get to regarding russia, ukraine. let's do some dodge though this morning. and elon musk, the president, is backing. >> musk's demand. >> that federal employees submit this weekly summary of their work accomplishments or face termination as the workers themselves receive some conflicting guidance from. agency leaders about complying with musk. yesterday, jim, it was opm, office of personnel management said. this reply is

now optional. in a sense. we had a judge yesterday question whether or not asking who is the administrator and does this violate the appointments clause? >> well, they've got a lot. >> of. >> democratic judges who are probably not in favor of this thing. you get the right judge. you get the supreme court. they're going to win. i mean, that's the whole point. but i would say the bank of america has finally addressed it. really good fact. >> a good note today. >> yes. where they say, look, this is a usaid, us. >> usaid. >> that's all a dry run. it's a dry run for the big guys. and the big guys are the department of defense and medicaid. and here they come. they're going. >> that's what. >> b of a is saying. >> yeah, that's what they're saying. yeah. but you know the biggest question for markets really is whether there's large spending cuts via reconciliation to i'm reading that. but this is a very important piece because what this says is all right. we did the little guys. now here comes the big guys. and we all would say that defense has too much spending. oh by the way the

army has the fewest number of recruits since the war since before the war. so i don't i mean, you can say that it's hardware, but it is important to point out that the army is having a hard time recruiting. >> yeah. there was. >> actually a very good new yorker piece. dexter filkins did it. >> yeah. >> really good piece. >> darn it. the hell you read the same piece i did. >> very excellent piece. >> wow. i haven't pushed him. yeah. >> pushed you. >> too many people. >> overweight. >> and we got gop for that. we can't have him and hers. you would. >> think that. >> and then aptitude. just simple. i mean, you know, you've got to. yeah. >> you got to pass certain tests. >> you do. >> it's not easy. you do. but i do think that when the defense department is on the griddle and then medicare, medicaid, i mean, you know, medicare, medicaid, i don't know a soul who thinks that there isn't fat in there. and i also think that kind of like the labor department with the with the unemployment number, we really don't know what it is. we have big revisions. if we had if we gave it to salesforce, i gave it to servicenow. i think that if we gave these companies literally outsource these companies, i know people are going to say, jim, you are like, that is so right wing, but if there's the machines are better. i mean,

look the when. >> now you're getting to the palantir book and whether or not we turn over whole swaths of the government to companies. yep. >> exactly. now david probably says, jim, you like palantir at 120 now is at 90. you think that what they do is wrong? no. i want karp in there. i want him to stop the guy. i want him to stop the book tour. i want him to stop using the f word. you want him on that wall? >> who's going to man that wall? >> you, cramer? >> i'm ready for him. i'm from philly mr. tough guy mr. being able to use a gun and shoot stuff. look you know what. what if you could shoot a gun at 270 yards. like why do i want to do that. it was like one guy that i was at goldman. he goes, you know what? i can send a nuclear missile and hit diego garcia. and i said, can i ask you, why would you want to wipe out diego garcia? i mean, karp can shoot anything from 280 yards, do i care? >> there is. >> a. >> there is. >> a. >> larger issue that. >> i think is raised. >> to a certain. >> extent by carl. >> and by what. >> you're talking about. >> the book tour. >> we have. >> two things going on right now. we have enormous change

coming at us from the trump administration. i mean, every day. >> right. and then you've got ai. >> which we haven't talked about, the broader ramifications. >> of it. >> i can coming. >> at us at a breakneck speed. >> as well. >> i mean, who knows what the next year will hold when we'll get to agi, what that really is going to mean for work. for social cohesion, for so many. >> different things, jim, you know, for the we see the working. >> and then you're talking about it taking over the government in terms. >> of you basically running it. you can do models. i mean, look at paypal today, they're going to announce an infusion of ai that i think is going to blow you away. alex. chris your pal. yes. my pal alex. >> chris. >> yes. >> he's got great stuff. >> another another tufts grad. >> great. >> tufts graduate. >> yeah. >> but are. >> you saying there is there a limit. >> to what. >> you will privatize post office, social security? how many of the how many of these companies, how much money can they make? >> they can make a lot. >> of money. yeah. >> they can make a lot. >> and do you think that leads you to what, an oligarch, an oligarchy. >> we already got. >> we already got that. >> we got to talk. >> it's too late. >> what's going to happen when the when there's a what are we

going to do when. >> the. >> robots in the kitchen making. >> dinner read new yorker all day. >> i'm going to do. >> no. look, i'm in three years work, okay? so this is going to come when i get up at 330. you ought to try that someday. and i have a cup of coffee that i have to make. that takes six minutes because of the keurig and the water and that stuff. and then i make i do the protein shake, whatever the hell. >> that is humanoid will do. >> yeah, of course it's going to take care. of all of that. will you listen to me? >> i listen. >> to you all the time. >> you come down. >> too much. >> adam. >> jonas. >> yeah, i think it's true. you go down, you got the humanoid doing the stuff right and you come down. the coffee's ready, your protein shake is ready. you've got your pc is then open, and you come down. and i had you. i had west side story on this morning, the morning nixon. terrible. and anybody. >> want you to do anything for you? >> i know you got done talking to alexa. do you know what, alexa? do you know this? when you ask for tchaikovsky, she gives you prokofiev. did you know that? >> by the way, jim, this is going to be the plaything of the rich. >> it's. oh, my god, you kidding me? i'm going to have three of them. >> i most households won't. >> the enormous efficiencies. >> by the way, in that.

>> same podcast i just referenced in adele was talking. >> about a. >> world in which gdp goes to 10%, 10%. >> well, yeah, he's got it down. but his eyes are what is his eye on australia? >> 10% growth. >> of gdp because of. >> all the well how about this. did you use have you. >> used. >> your better not deport 12 million people then you're going to get 10% nominal. >> yes. and i think that anything that's that positive is just wrong. copilot what is that. >> well i think. >> we've seen recently. >> i think. >> we've who is copilot? what is she. >> confused our viewers today? i think. >> that was great. that's not true. we are presenting the world as they see it. this was a cinema verité, a block. they call it the a block where everyone is equally as worried about the stuff that we said. and that's a little zeitgeist moment. it's okay. yeah. like, do you think the is the answers with his 10% gdp and we're cutting and no, we're not cutting. we're cutting. chinatown. david's shot. >> it's chinatown. >> when we come. >> back. >> we're going to talk about some. >> actual stocks.

>> we'll get home depot's reaction. >> we will have more stocks. we're going to do more stocks. this has ever been done in history of the western world. >> nobody's ever seen. anything like it. >> yeah. >> we'll go over the home. >> depot comps, smc. >> i'm all over it. >> i'm all over. >> tesla's a story. >> take a look at the pre-market as we are looking to stabilize after some recent selling. don't go anywhere. >> i. >> opportunities can be hard to find, like. >> catching lightning in a bottle in uncertain times. >> it's. >> tempting to retreat or simply. >> wait and see. at cme group, we empower those who act. we deliver. >> tools to help manage. >> risk and capture opportunities. in every. >> market climate, across. >> every major asset class. to

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>> in the heart of times square. here's what's on. >> tap tonight. >> fast money live investors and fast money fans join melissa lee and the team of traders live and on air. >> we put the party hats. >> on now. >> for an all access fusion of trades, trends and tips. fast money live thursda you think those phone guys will ever figure out how to keep 5g home internet from slowing down during peak hours? their customers have to share a wireless signal with everyone in their area. oooh. you know, it's kinda like when you bring a really big cake for your birthday, and then there's only a little,

tiny sliver left for the birthday girl. aw. well, wish her a happy birthday. happy birthday... -it's... ...to her. -no, it's me. have your cake and eat it, too. don't settle for t-mobile or verizon 5g home internet. get super fast xfinity internet you don't have to share. forty's going to be my year. the chef and all of us. >> home depot shares are raising their pre-market losses. the company posts a q4 beat quarterly comps rising for the first time in a couple of years. the full year guidance on. comps came in a bit below street forecasts, jim. but i assume you'll take this. >> yeah. as a charitable trust owner, we've been telling people to buy it, but you mentioned something really important. so the company reports is 6:00. i'm furiously trying to read the entire statement. i know home depot really well. they've known it really well since 1983. and i'm thinking, this is good. this is good. i'm still this is good. and there's just guys beelining it and taking it down to 3 to

379. i mean they're like hitting it. and i got to find out what's wrong. i got to find out what's wrong. and there's nothing really bad. and they keep hitting it. so let's be aware that the first trade is not always the right trade. >> no. well, you make that point a lot. >> now, jim. >> they do say despite ongoing pressure on large remodeling projects. so they do bring that up again. uncertain macroeconomic conditions, higher interest rate environment of course impacting home improvement demand overall. right. >> and they built that company to compete with builders. first source they bought. so someone could say well they shouldn't have done this helps people. this helps. let's say a contractor wants to build a pool. you know, they're able to do everything. but look the stock's been down for many, many days. and i point out that in 19 i'm sorry in 2007 to 9 they bought back a tremendous number of shares. and there were shorts the whole time. now here they add to the dividend but and only 2%. but what i'm saying is this company has navigated harder waters. >> well with the ten year at

4.3. >> there's some jokes this morning. >> about whether or not a growth scare. >> can save the spring. >> selling season. >> well, if you remember that doug yearly said that the last week was good. but when he announced his quarter and i said on air that, oh, we're going to get that granular. and doug shot me an email. come on jim. like, you know we're trying to keep give everybody as much information. it's entirely possible that we could have things better because the average price of a toll brothers house is going from $1 million to 920,000. i know nine 20,000 is well beyond 95% of the country, but the fact is it's struct. >> it has dropped. yeah. >> but interest rates are. >> still high. so your monthly cost has not dropped. >> but ten point, you know, when you get a ten year as low as it is and one's paying any attention to it. yeah. >> no that's i think the 30. year fixed is down five weeks in a row. not by a lot. >> but but if you get a house that's down, you know, 10,000 you got that. and suddenly things are a little more

affordable. look, there's something that's not affordable. i had agco on, which is a huge kind of deere like its stake can't fix it. eggs can't fix it. but grains are down for the most part. grains are down and grains are the fundament of everything in the end. and then of course, entertainment and insurance. we can't solve those. there's no one at hartford, on the hartford. no one's coming in to do insurance. >> insurance? >> how is that possible that someone doesn't come in and do an insurance between. >> your all. >> your insurance. >> home insurance and your. >> health insurance? >> insurance should be on. what are you supposed to do? >> oh my. >> god. >> if you're not like i'm a 1099 employee, my health insurance is equal to what most people make in this country because i don't have a group. i don't have a buying group, by the way. >> we do, and it's still monthly. incredible how. >> much we don't even want to hear about it. >> yep. >> i think it around 11. >> i don't want. >> to hear about it. you're right. >> i think digital service taxes are. >> going to take. >> a break. >> look at 11:00. i have a sense

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that's the power of nuveen. >> the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income alternatives and responsible investing. >> all right. >> let's squeeze. >> in a mad dash. >> what do you got? i know you want stocks. you know fang has been disparaged, right? we don't. we think fang is out of favor. yes. we're wrong if we're thinking about diamondback energy because they had maybe the greatest growth story that i've seen, certainly better than some of the mag seven. these guys are the growth oil company. they were also there for a week goes it cuts two ways, but they have a lot of permian. i was really excited about the quarter. these were really good numbers. >> not a great trend for the stock over the last year though. >> well because they're the most levered. and so if oil goes down they get hurt. if oil goes up they used to be like oxy. remember oxy was levered. these guys are the most levered but they're very well run now. so anyway there's the fang that people like. >> let's get the opening. >> bell.

>> here on. >> the. cnbc realtime. >> exchange at. >> the big board. >> it's the. >> police athletic. >> league celebrating 110 years at the nasdaq. it is semiconductor supplier on semi. as we'll talk about the chips a lot this week. >> jim what. >> lloyd austin wrong. >> i used to help run the pal in summit, and i was in charge of the easter egg hunt, the halloween parade and most importantly, the pet show, of which i put the rabbits next to the snakes and i was never forgiven. >> dow is going to. >> look for some gains here at the open, jim. we'll see what what depot does for the market overall. there's plenty other to what we mentioned palantir earlier though, down at least 4% for four straight days. >> i think that maybe this idea about doge and where they're going to go in palantir matters. i think that palantir got so hot it had that parabolic move, and then it had the endless book tour, and the people kind of wanted alex to get back to. they actually have a lot of people

more than alex. i'm not kidding. i happen to like a lot of the people there and their work on the defense department and be able to dismantle the military industrial complex would make eisenhower very proud. so they're a very real company. and i think that if they got the chance to be able to undo the military industrial complex, it would be great for our country. >> a big piece in the ft today about. u.s. defense companies as a group, down about 4% since inauguration. meantime, european defense. >> companies. >> they're the best going to the moon. >> yeah, those are the best acting stocks. i don't like the japanese brokerage houses. and david, i think that the 200 billion that emergency that germany's committing, that's not going to lockheed martin. >> no, the german industrial complex is pretty formidable. one when they get. >> it, when they. >> get it going. >> of course, they have energy problems right now in terms of. >> how much. >> they all are paying for it. >> right. the social democrats and the greens have historically not embraced the force that is currently going on. >> no new. >> leadership, obviously taking over in germany. we've talked a good amount about the weakness of that economy, which is getting hit from all sides, higher, higher input costs,

obviously, energy being a key one. export markets such as china really weak for them in terms of competition, for example, in the automobile sector. >> how do you feel about your welfare? >> yeah, i mean any number of different, different challenges they've been taking on. that said, the european market is, i think our viewers will know, has been performing quite well, far better than our own for a short bit of time here. >> my favorite country in europe by far is spain, and it's banco santander, which has been up 40% for the year. this is on a team whose i would nominate as the best banker in the world. i know you feel that all i care about is charlie scharf. that's a mistake on a routine is just incredible. and that stock is remarkable because spain is doing incredibly well, incredibly. >> and it's a. >> really good. >> place to visit in general. >> homage to catalonia, my friend. >> i mean. you want to go to madrid any time i'm there. >> i was with the lincoln brigade in spirit. i just feel like that there's some stocks. and there is people hit the

chart up. you would see that is the you know, it's the largest bank in europe. so i'm not like just making it up. but wow, they're doing great. there's just this renaissance. and i think people are tired of what's happening in our country. they think it's too fickle. and a lot of people do talk about our budget deficit as being insurmountable. but notice how bitcoin quietly went under 90,000, which supposed to be a proxy for the fact that we had 36 trillion of debt. but who knows how much of that was the microstrategy buy? people were worried about the microstrategy convert. i'm not worried about saylor. he is a survivor. >> msr you're talking about. >> the. >> we call that mr. msr is called mr. >> well he's. >> moving into. >> strategy now. >> it's not called microstrategy. >> it's just strategy. >> i mean, the question for the company, though. >> jim, is, you know, he will he articulates his strategy. very well. but the fact is that. >> the overall. >> company's value. is multiples. >> of the bitcoin. >> it holds. >> i always tell people it's. >> a curious. >> situation. >> but he will. >> keep selling converts. he

uses. >> the options. >> markets very effectively. >> high octane bitcoin. >> it's high octane bitcoin. but why you're paying a premium for their bitcoin is certainly gotten the attention. >> of those. >> who might be bold enough to short the stock. >> i think it's because it's wrong, right? i think that there's tremendous retail interest that has got too excited about it. i have vlad tenev on tonight. very really guy's got robinhood, right. and i mean to me his app is so good. you just go buy the bitcoin. i mean why didn't you why go for the starwood. >> yeah. this is almost back to election day levels. >> isn't that interesting. what does that tell you. >> well bitcoin is down and down sharply as well. you just mentioned it. yeah i mean in the 90,000 range. >> after that. >> actually bitcoin traded 86,000. at one point this morning it touched 86,000. that's a huge reversal. we feel we meaning the team i work with. jeff marx that the reason why we've had so much froth and i'm talking about the lows. i'm talking about the evs that we

may not want and, you know, even constellations, because that gave you the cover to do it. we think that bitcoin got people very excited about things that are very space age. and that's that's the fundament. that's the fundament of speculation is bitcoin. but that's what turned it all on. >> not to mention some. >> of the. >> meme coins. >> yes the first ladies meme coin. >> has gone. >> from 13 to 1. >> well i mean, where's gensler when you need him other than next to the fireplace? he's he's got a lot of fireplace. now, repudiation of gensler is rather extraordinary. it's almost as if what what stalin would do, he'd send you the vladivostok to the dam. i mean, we have people who are saying you can't go to mit because he teaches at mit. i mean, he's an american and a good one. doesn't matter. >> strange times. >> what does that mean? >> i don't know. >> i just i'll. >> just leave it out there. it doesn't mean. >> much of anything. >> i got it out of ether three. thank you. >> did good for you. >> yeah. it was like i bought

ether because i was trying to bid for something, and i forgot that i owned it, and it went up by a quadruple. see, it's better to be lucky than good, david. >> always. >> every single time. guys, we talked a bit about europe and germany. but those tesla. >> numbers in europe. >> were very weak. >> and the stock is getting hit on that. you know, down 45%. we'll get people's attention. and that's. >> what. they were. >> do you think people are saying he's not. >> to the same month of 2000. >> and he is he has a changeover in tesla. there's a changeover that he's doing on the on the autos. >> what i think it's about people waiting. >> they can't wait to. >> get their hands on the next model. >> i think he's antagonized. >> a lot of. >> people in europe. and you know. over. >> here you've. >> sort of got. >> what he may lose in some, but some customers he may get back. certainly they like the cybertruck, but over in europe not as much. >> all right. so let's say you send him an email saying, listen, what did you accomplish last week? what would he say? elon i'm down 47% in germany. what would he say if you sent

him that email? i don't he'd say that starlink is now in america. starlink. >> i didn't even. >> get his attention when he walked by me last week, because he did when he was with the president. >> wow. that's pathetic. >> i know i yelled at him. >> you like elon? >> and he didn't even. look at me? >> well, i wouldn't point that out. >> so the romance is over. >> i would not have. i would have left that out of the equation. >> i don't. >> mind sharing. >> share. i share it all. yeah. >> well, you said we had a lot of stocks. >> i would love to actually, you know, maybe. >> i'll text him and he'll get back to me, but. >> i doubt it. >> i doubt it. >> well. >> the. >> other thing about the. >> european fall off. david's right down 45% in january. the industry. was up 37. >> i know the industry is doing incredibly well. and that's literally i now you have to start questioning are they is the left boycotting it? >> i think we know the answer in europe okay. yeah. >> all right. well then how about home depot. meanwhile china by the way. >> in china. >> they've gotten approval for early stages of full self-driving. >> so. >> to speak. and that is seen as

a positive for tesla. yes. as it fights hard in that market. >> as well. >> which has become ultra competitive. >> over the last couple. >> we're still waiting for what's going to happen here. self-driving. look, i think it's a buy right here. frankly. >> you think it's a. >> buy here? yeah i do because it's more it's starlink. it's a lot more than that. it's humanoid. wait, wait. >> a second. >> starlink is not a part of tesla. >> no, no, i'm saying zeitgeist wise, people are going to get back and thinking he hasn't lost his touch. he hasn't lost his touch. humanoid. yes, jonas. >> all right. but you. >> said tesla's a buy. and you just think because of the generals. >> yeah, well. good feelings. >> well, tesla is a fuel stock. it's never been an earnings stock. >> right. but well by the way he's. >> not doesn't want you focused on automotive sales anyway. >> he's talking about. >> full self-driving. >> yes. >> and what that's going to mean for the robotaxi and of course and the. >> humanoids and. >> optimus the robot. >> yeah. and the nvidia, the chips that he has more nvidia than anybody. >> he's got a lot of nvidia. >> but. >> a lot of it. >> is at exi. >> all right, all right, all right. >> which is. >> not also a separate company. no. you you can't value who

knows. you can't go jen psaki more than. >> 75 billion probably. >> i'd say. >> you probably think of one that i'm not reported. by the way, can i just say did you like the show? send in the clowns. >> the show. >> send in the clowns. >> because they send in the clowns to sell home depot at 380. those guys were sending the clowns. okay. >> it was a song, right? >> well, you know, i'm talking, you know, something tonight for these guys, that was. that was follies. >> was it follies? >> i thought. >> that was a little night music. >> night music. >> i like getting those confused. i little i like little night music. >> you did? >> yeah. >> yeah. >> it's a good show. >> sondheim holds up. >> so he's. >> a genius. >> pacific overtures. >> yes, genius. thank you. jim, we got some news on lily today on this pricing. >> i cannot believe it's for the high dose. and that means. i mean, the high doses have come down a lot in price, but now they're going to come under everybody. so lily's back. it's bigger than ever. it's making a major move. we got hymns out of the equation. the hymns just

dropped it like it was like a led zeppelin. led zeppelin being a group going on a music thing, and. but eli lilly cutting the price is going to make it so that it is dramatically good. now, we don't know what the president's going to do is novo nordisk because they make some stuff here, but it's a danish company. where are they going to be in the tariffs? i think really. >> you put. >> tariffs on. >> you put tariffs on. >> on. >> on wegovy. >> yeah. because you already you have why do you need wegovy. >> well i mean he, he kind of fudged on tiktok because of its popularity. you don't think you do the same thing on this? >> i don't think people know what these are. they just want them. it's more expensive than the other. so they take it. they're the same thing. >> and that has some competition? >> no, there's no competition. louie's got the low price. louie's got the big. but remember, it's the big dose. okay. and by the way, the hims compound problem. it's like him says we're going to compound it. there are only two compound pharmacies in all of new york that have any scale, so i don't know where they're going to compound that. maybe they have their own lab, but if.

>> they're. >> only supposed. >> to be compounding when it's in shortage and it's no longer deemed to be in shortage. >> but they can make a little bit different and therefore they're okay. they don't see what that's doing in that stock. they don't like it when you call it knockoffs. i call it knockoff. >> by the way. >> when you. go back, any i mean, the stock has been an incredible performer. >> but here's. yeah. so major short squeeze. yeah. you know that. >> yeah it was. >> use short squeeze. there's been a lot of short squeeze of late because yeah shorts were in there not expecting a gigantic push and they've been killed. can i go back to home depot again. >> no, no. you know why. why? because i want to talk a little about unilever, which can't seem to keep a ceo for very long. >> yeah, maybe because. >> they only pay them ■k71.8 million. >> yeah. was like when it was like when my european ceo, michael hagan. right. you remember when he said to hagan, yeah, you're out. yeah. that guy's out. >> he's out. >> he's out. yeah. >> they announced heinz schumacher stepping down as chief executive officer. as of march 1st. he will be replaced by the company's cfo, current cfo, they say in the

announcement. while the board is pleased with unilever's performance in 2024, there's much further to go to deliver best in class results. we've got a number of analysts sort of sharing their opinions. i thought b of a perhaps was the most at least, i don't know. they said something they believe the board decision to pick fernandez. this is the incoming current cfo coming in as ceo is more suitable to accelerate change as a strategic roadmap is in place. in the context of the first half 25 slowdown, tough comps, some potential internal disagreements. we don't know a lot there. stock not reacting that badly. >> take a look. >> overall though, nothing if you look. and by. >> the way. >> this is. >> a. >> tough group to be a part of. i mean i just i picked the s&p consumer staples. jim the xlp over five years. look at it versus the s&p. >> it's not. >> good i mean. >> that's just. >> not where you. >> want. >> to be. you know they've been exciting company in a sense that they have turmoil. yeah. all pullman ever since he left. >> remember paul pullman.

>> yeah he was very interested in esg. yeah he was esg by the way while we're talking microsoft rolling over very big nvidia going down very hard. >> all the mag seven. >> yeah mag seven just is it's kind of like a robert vaughn and james coburn not not yul brynner and steve mcqueen. got it. >> kind of brings to mind, jim, the piece that the journal did. >> yesterday about. >> how the economy is relying on the rich more than ever. that percent of the top. 10% of earners. >> is amazing and. >> then rate of saving. >> and then right there was bing's house. >> yes. >> bing's house for 40 mil there. bingo. no, i mean, we have an oligarchical. my point is, to. >> what degree are those earners and spenders exposed to mag seven? and what happens if it if it truly rolls? >> it's just a great question. they have to hold up if you're going to see consumer spending up, because these people are funding most of the consumer spend, it's although walmart has a degree of wealthier people going there. and that's important. they have they're

getting that the amount of how much people make walmart is going up. this is an important bedrock. you can't use it as a bank. >> you can't use the magnificent seven as a bank. no, no, because they're stocks and they go up and down. yeah, right. >> but i think rich people are overweighted. >> well. >> as i've said. >> yeah. i mean they. >> are, they are. >> they're well owned. >> and so. >> whenever you get these kinds of moves. >> should they on beacon. >> you get. everybody. they should probably own. >> beacon here with the with. >> 24 plus. and they've gotten 17. plus percent tendered into them already. >> so they're going to win. >> yeah i think they might. >> yes i think that brad jacobs is going to win i'm saying it right here. might not. who knows if. >> he's going to raise he's going to raise though. isn't he going to raise. >> he doesn't have to do that. we're talking about we're talking. >> about that one hostile out there that of course, we always come back. >> to. >> you know, who's on. >> beacon roofing, who, who's the king? king of what? >> of m&a. >> oh yeah, of course i know.

>> his guy. well, maybe share it with the people. >> i know. he's got a. hot side. how about no i'm not going to share who the lawyer is. >> you're not going to share scott marshall's name. all right. forget about it. i won't mention him either. >> every darn time. how about this? this piece yesterday, jim, the new ftc chair, ferguson. >> saying they're going. >> to enforce. >> the rules. >> vigorously and aggressively. >> look. >> there it is. all right. so you can enforce the rules two ways you can use the rules and talk. or you can prosecute using the rules. and they're not going to prosecute. they're going to have discussions. they are not going to do it the way that biden did. well. and lina khan, that's that's true. this is what. >> he did. >> no, this. >> he did note that the merger challenges the ftc filed in the last year of the biden administration had unanimous support, including his own. he was one of the commissioners. and obviously they did succeed in blocking. remember kroger, albertsons, tapestry, capri. now we focused a lot on the ones they lost earlier. >> right. well, it's. >> almost march. we came into

this year. i remember being quite abusive, given all the bankers and lawyers and everybody i was talking to saying it is going to be off the charts. it's almost march. we've had very little. it's why we continue to talk about beacon roofing, because there's not much to discuss now. we may see a lot more m&a. >> i expect we will. >> see more. okay, but we have not seen this avalanche that many anticipated. and i think much of it may be a misinterpretation of how lenient they were going to be on the regulatory front. yeah. there's also to mention tariffs and everything else that's sort of fixed. figures into. your you're trying to figure out whether you want to move ahead and an equity market that is okay. >> why isn't private equity done more. they're kind of sitting around doing nothing. where's blue owl when you need them. they got. >> to get some exits. >> private equity too. >> don't they. >> yeah. they got to get some exits so they can get some entrance. >> have you seen the size of the deals people are talking about? the deals are like microscopic. they're not microscopic. >> but they're. >> not m&a. and the and the ipo

market are as dead as i've ever seen them. >> which is surprising. >> it's really surprising. but it's but remember it's are they going to prosecute. they're going to call you in and beat you up. are they going to just say, listen, i think you need to make some changes to get that deal done? that's what i think is going to happen. >> floodgates may open yet, but they have not. and there's people got wildly optimistic. >> i did, because i thought that there were a lot of combinations that would have made a lot of sense. >> well, they. >> still are in immediate media needs to make combinations. >> yes, there are many things that need to happen in media. >> what do you think? >> and maybe even consumer, you know, packaged consumer goods as well? >> i mean, you. >> know. honestly general mills needs to merge with, i don't know, conagra. okay. just put that one out. there you go. no, because these companies are doing horribly. mondelez should buy everybody everybody. >> well. >> starting with. >> hershey's, which they. >> seem incapable of figuring out a. >> way to buy. >> is that unbelievable? yeah. can't the new sec call them up and say you ought to do it like

this? >> i don't know. >> they just every. >> every time, they just don't. >> quite get it right. >> they're not done yet because they're pathetic. whose pathetic parodies of stocks in consumer packaged goods companies. thank you. i know, by the way, i really like them. yes, but, you know, frosted flakes, man, it's. >> yeah, it's tough. >> on. >> pricing and on volume. >> i like celsius after that. >> yeah. that's a good one. >> i had. >> a celsius. let me tell you something. it doesn't grow about. i don't even know what it's talking about. people talk about that. >> s&p down again as jim mentioned the mag. >> seven and tech not helping out. >> in fact. >> home depot is leading the dow and. keurig doctor pepper leading the s&p. all that's happening with the lower yield backdrop with the ten year off the morning lows, but. >> still close. >> to four three, don't go anywhere.

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advisors@smartasset.com. >> it's time. for jim. >> and stop. >> looking for a sign of what could stop this sell off in homes. watch toll two firms cut price target. people are saying it's really, really weak price target. probably well below that we got today from barclays. this is the stock. if it can hold the line then you know that things are finally bottoming and the ten year is telling the truth. that's the one to watch because that is the most they have the most clarity. they have the most transparency. and if that holds then the sell off is over. yeah. >> we actually might get a negative spread on three month tenure saying, yeah, it's been a while. >> look, i mean, i keep thinking about what you said about the mag seven and, and their ability to be able to affect spending if that's the case. look, the fed is austan goolsbee, whom i really, really like. he's been waffling. i wish he went the other way, because i think the data says that he would have been right, except for insurance. steak, eggs. okay.

these are bad steak insurance. steak and eggs. okay. and then entertainment is just ridiculous. if swift were to cut the prices of her tickets, we'd have a rate cut immediately. >> she might do that. >> really? >> i don't. >> know, maybe. >> i. >> don't know. what about tonight? >> okay. i've got paypal, which is making a resurrection. this is something that david brought my attention to. thank you. david. and then kotara, which is a company that's doing very well. it's oil and natural gas. and i do want to reference i want to get my people clear on my invidia. okay. i don't like i think that it's a it is a difficult stock to own through this. but i'm not changing my view of the issue. but it's difficult okay. and it's been difficult. and today is still one more difficult day because we don't know what navarro and company is going to say. i am actually going to come back at 11. i think there's something worth talking about. and i want to sit here because i don't want to be ridiculed anymore by navarro saying, where's cramer? where's cramer? he's doing fantasy football. no, because it ended. >> yes. >> football season. >> is over. season is over. >> and your team. >> won the.

>> super bowl. >> excuse me. >> congratulations, by. >> the way. >> well, i deserved it because i did. i was right there with born. i was middle linebacker. >> jim. we'll see you in a little bit then. thank you. mad money of course. tonight, 6 p.m. as we hit. >> this little air pocket. >> nasdaq down almost a full percent again. percent again. >> stay with us. got eyelid itching, crusties and swelling that won't go away? it could be... demodex blepharitis! and we're demodex mites. we're very common and super irritating to your eyelids... but we love making ourselves comfortable here! oh, yeah...steam time! if demodex mites are partying it up on your eyelids... it's time to eliminate the root of the problem with xdemvy. with one drop in each eye twice a day... you can kill the mites in just six weeks. xdemvy is the first and only fda-approved treatment that kills the mites that cause demodex blepharitis, a common eyelid disease.

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investors, sophisticated investors, beginning investors. i'm always learning. >> closing bell over time for eastern cnbc thursday, investors and fast money fans join melissa lee and the team of traders live and on air for an all access fusion of trades, trends and tips. fast money live. thursday, 5:00 eastern cnbc. >> good tuesday morning. >> welcome to. >> another hour of squawk on. >> the street. >> i'm sara. >> eisen here with carl quintanilla. >> david. >> faber live, as always. >> from post nine of the new york stock exchange. take a look. >> at stocks. >> under pressure. >> again today. lots of momentum toward the close yesterday. >> and we're down 4/10 of a percent. tech getting hit the hardest again here with. >> the. >> nasdaq down 1%. >> and the. >> dow hanging. >> in there. >> up 41 points. >> treasuries are. a story because we are seeing this. >> big bid for. >> bonds with yields lower. look at the ten year down to 4.3%.

the two year. yield just below 4.1%. >> this has become. >> the new benchmark. we know that president trump watches it carefully and so does. >> the treasury secretary. >> we're 30. >> minutes here. >> into the treasury, into. >> the trading session. here are some movers we're watching. >> nvidia is. >> down again on pace for a third down day. tesla also under pressure again down about 4% right now. lower for a fourth day. >> in a row. >> shares of hims and hers. health plunging earnings beating estimates. but gross margin fell. >> short. >> raising fears about the. company's glp one business. more on that stock and. >> what the story. >> is here later on in the show. also watching keurig doctor pepper rallying after a top and bottom line beat. with net sales up. >> more than 6%. >> stocks reacting here to some numbers on consumer confidence. let's get to rick santelli. hey rick. >> yeah markets are pretty smart. they stock market going down. headline confidence coming in at 98.3. that's february from the conference board. we're expecting a number over 102

sequentially. significantly lower than 105.3 in the rear view mirror. and it is the lightest level going back to june of last year. now if we look at present situation, a bit of a different story at 130 6.5. it's a little better than expected and it's better than what was in the rear view mirror. but we see a revision last month moves from 1.34 and change to 1.39.9. so once again it becomes sequentially lower. if you look at what lies ahead in form of expectations 82.2 in the rear view mirror, which makes 72.9 the weakest level since june of 24. now, richmond fed the manufacturing index. i thought we'd be looking at 16 consecutive negative months in a row not to be. we got a positive number here. moves up to six. that's the best level. going back to wow april of 22nd april of 22. and if we look at richmond fed business conditions

or the service side positive one a bit of a disappointment, but it is the fourth consecutive positive number in a row. we see that the stock market of course moving lower on this. interest rates moving lower. and we could say that the slowing economy is the reason for interest rates moving down. but many are saying it's a flight to safety, a safe harbor trade, which is really ironic because if uncertainty is the reason the equity markets are moving lower, why should there be any less uncertainty in the future of treasuries to types of issuance or the debt? so at least at this point, the old rules on treasuries seem to be working. whenever there's nervousness ongoing in equities. seems like the best hedge is buying treasuries. sara, back to you. >> okay. >> rick, thank you very much, rick santelli. >> i think one thing. >> is for sure, this. >> market has. >> moved pretty. >> quickly from worrying. >> about inflation to worrying about growth. and you see that reflected in the bond market as well. down to look below 4.3 on the on the ten year. it is

somewhat good news. >> for the overall. >> economy though to get buying of bonds. >> because we've. >> had rate pressures. >> mortgage rates have been. >> super high. >> we felt. >> it in the auto loans and everything else. >> that's why we know that the treasury secretary. >> wants lower rates. well guess what? we have a growth scare. and that's that's. >> what. >> they're getting. >> right now. i don't think. >> the consumer confidence. >> numbers help in light of the. >> university of michigan consumer. >> confidence numbers, which also were worse than. expected just to get it kind of confirmed in two different releases, does make you wonder about. whether that uncertainty is creeping into the minds of consumers. >> yeah. we talked. >> with drew mattis yesterday in the. >> 11 about. >> the average. >> work week, and it was. yesterday's print. but dallas. >> fed a workweek. >> is a new cycle low. thanks, liz ann sonders. so we're going to start to put. >> all these things. >> together. try to create some narrative strings. >> and the and the. >> point there on. workweek and. >> hours worked. is that. >> companies are supported. >> so many workers. >> because the labor market was so tight and now they don't have. >> as. >> much to do with them. >> so layoffs.

>> could come next. haven't seen that in the jobless claims numbers yet, but it's something economists. >> are on guard for. >> we have that and. >> we have tariffs and the tariffs. >> creating the uncertainty. >> and here's. what president trump said. >> yesterday about. >> more tariffs coming soon. >> we're on time with the tariffs. and it seems like that's moving along very rapidly. we've been mistreated very badly by many countries, not just canada and mexico. >> so signaling that those those 25%. >> tariffs on canada and mexico, despite the fact that they were delayed. >> and. >> are. being negotiated, he says, are on time, same as the reciprocal tariffs. you know, the market the dollar is weaker today. so you're not seeing the sort of panic moves that. you've seen. before when he has. >> said that. >> tariffs are coming. maybe they think that there's room to negotiate. maybe it's more of a. concern than. >> it is an. >> inflationary concern. >> either way. >> there's also. >> you know. >> this idea. >> that companies have been preparing. for it. katy huberty of morgan stanley research there put out a great. chart showing

that toward the end of last year, companies were stockpiling on imports. the blue line is november, december. the yellow line is october. so as president trump started talking, or at that point, incoming president trump was talking about tariffs and they started realizing that this was going to happen. they really started hoarding imports, right? to get ahead of those tariffs so they wouldn't have to pay more. inventory levels are very elevated. that's only to say that perhaps that can alleviate some of the near-term. >> pressure on prices. >> excuse me. >> that people are expecting as a. >> result of tariffs. >> is it making g. >> is it. disguising weakness. >> in gdp. >> at least in the current trackers? >> i mean it. >> could. >> be right. >> higher inventory. >> levels, right? i mean distorted. >> right. >> and then you would expect to give back a little bit later. >> so that's. >> definitely a factor. it could also be. >> distorting it in. >> the way of boosting. >> imports which goes into the trade number. right. but ultimately. >> the question is. >> are we going to see higher prices. are we going to see

demand destruction. as a result of some of these tariffs? >> if consumers. >> you know, react to it, one thing's for sure, foreign central banks and foreign governments are watching carefully. bank of korea was the latest. they cut rates overnight. they sharply downgraded economic growth from 1.9 to 1.5% for their economy. and guess what? exports and domestic demand face heightened downward. >> pressures due to. >> us tariff policies and domestic political uncertainty. >> so our central bank. >> won't talk. >> about tariffs. >> but other central banks around. >> the. >> world are talking about tariffs. >> you look at an export economy like korea. the stuff really matters. >> got some headlines from bessent actually. have you seen these sarah? just heading treasury. >> secretary benson says. >> the us economy is brittle underneath due to excessive spending by the biden administration. it's just what we were saying with jim a little bit ago. he wants to. basically reprivatize some elements of the economy that were subsumed, he would argue, by the federal government under under the biden years, exactly. concentrated in

government and government adjacent sectors in terms of job growth, goes on to say, carlson, you talked about as well, though, that data suggests financial health is concentrated at the top of the economic spectrum. >> and we must swap economic. >> growth from the. government to the private sector, which is certainly something they're doing, at least on the jobs front, when it. >> comes to doge. >> and some of. >> the cuts. >> they're. >> doing there. >> besides tariffs. >> you know, as far as. >> how the underlying economy is really. >> doing. >> i mean, home depot, home depot. >> talked about. >> tariffs a little bit. they said they're. obviously a. >> lot of discussion. >> on what rates. >> would be. >> and when. >> countries would. >> be impacted. >> and what categories of goods. we've been through that before. >> and i think we. >> have the best team to manage through any tariff environment, which would impact the industry broadly. i'd say our diversification efforts out of certain concentrations in countries has been quite good. >> over the last 6. >> or. >> 7 years. >> so that was the. >> companies are trying to figure out new sources on supply chain. they're trying to mitigate this. i think. >> that's been. >> the message, but they haven't. necessarily priced it

in to what it's going. >> to mean for earnings. >> at this point. >> all right. we touched on a bit of washington. let's get let's get it to washington in full. the trump administration reportedly considering tighter export controls on. chips to china. eamon javers and kristina partsinevelos have the details for us and potentially what the fallout would be. eamon, let's start with you. hey there david. that's right. bloomberg is reporting today that the. >> trump. >> administration is eyeing even. >> tougher restrictions. >> on. >> semiconductor exports to china. >> than the recent biden administration had put. >> in. >> place, and those were seen as tough at the time. >> citing people familiar. >> with the. >> matter, bloomberg reports. >> that the trump administration officials are holding meetings now to discuss new limits with key. >> us allies. >> and working on a longer list. >> of. >> restrictions that could be put. >> in. >> place in. >> the coming months. now, the goal here is to slow. >> china's overall. technological progress. >> and especially so in sensitive areas like. >> artificial intelligence. the trump team is looking at three. specific possibilities curbs on sales of chips that nvidia designed. specifically for

china, reducing the computing power. >> that can be exported without. >> a license, and putting more restrictions on types of nvidia chips. >> that can be exported without. >> a license. meanwhile, in a press event yesterday. >> you guys. >> were talking about this with. french president emmanuel macron. president trump said he. >> is on track. >> to reimpose tariffs on. >> canada and mexico. after the 30 day pause that he put. >> in place comes to an end. >> we've been mistreated very badly by many countries, not just canada and mexico. we've been taken advantage of. the tariffs are going forward on time, on schedule. this is an abuse that took place for many, many years. >> now. >> under the terms of the pause, the new deadline is march. >> 4th. >> at 12 a.m, 12:01. >> a.m. >> eastern time. >> we'll see what happens then. guys. >> you saw the president announce these tariffs. >> then he announced a pause in. >> the tariffs. >> now he's announcing that things might come back at. >> that deadline time.

>> we'll see where we. >> go when we get there. >> the president. >> likes to keep a lot of these balls. >> as. >> live balls in the. air so he can continue negotiations. we just saw a headline from the mexican president, sheinbaum, in. >> the past. >> hour saying that she. continues to negotiate and she's hoping for a favorable outcome there. >> so clearly. >> this is a moving target, even though we. >> have that. >> sound bite from the president. >> yesterday, guys. >> i mean, it raises. >> the. >> question, eamon, about why he wants. >> to go forward on tariffs. is it. >> to get the concessions. >> for instance. >> the troops along the mexican border, which it sounded like they. >> were ready to make a deal with. or does. >> he want to. >> use. >> it to raise revenues. >> which he's talked. >> about before. to help. fight off the deficit? >> well, he said several. >> different things, right? one is that he wants, you know, the mexican. and canadian governments to help in the fight against fentanyl. the other is that he. wants it to help in terms. of lowering the deficit, as. you say. the other is. that he said that. >> he wants. >> to use tariffs in order to increase. >> u.s. manufacturing. >> and just protect american industry. you know, all three of

those goals are somewhat mutually inconsistent. the president cited all of them in the reason why he likes. >> the tariffs. >> he likes the idea of tariffs. >> but when he gets. >> close to that deadline, you know, there's always a pause. there's always an extension. there's always a study to be conducted. >> because i. >> know that the president watches the stock market very carefully, and he doesn't want to spark any kind of negative reaction there as well. so he wants to have his cake and eat it too. and that's tricky to do. eamon. we'll talk. >> in. >> a little bit a lot. >> lots to talk about. >> regarding the budget as. >> well today in. >> dc eamon javers. and we'll talk. >> more tariffs. >> this morning with white house senior counselor for trade and manufacturing peter navarro. in the next hour. meantime christina partsinevelos with more on today's stock reaction. morning christina. >> good morning. >> well those looming. >> u.s. restrictions. >> you just talked about are. >> expected to keep nvidia's. >> guidance in check. >> since they would. >> tighten measures on gpu. or we can call them. >> ai chip sales to china. >> morgan stanley. >> just one example of sell side research that nvidia's april q1. guidance may. >> not be. >> as grand as everyone hoped,

but should still move up at least an average of $2 billion. >> so not bad. and that's because nvidia. >> still sells. export compliant. >> ai chips. >> to china. >> they're called the a20s. >> the success. >> of china's. >> deep sea large language model has caused really a surge in h. >> 20 orders just. over the last. month for customers like. >> tencent and alibaba. >> the assumption, though, and. >> this. >> assumption has been going on for a while. >> that's why this. >> may not. >> necessarily be new. news is that these chips. >> would be the. >> next to be restricted, which explains. >> why nvidia has been. >> so vocal about the potential damage. >> saying quote in. >> a blog. >> post, these rules. >> would do. >> nothing to. >> enhance u.s. security. the administration worries. >> china, though, has been. circumventing the rules. >> that are already in. >> place going through singapore or buying on the secondary market. it's hard to stop when a quick ebay search, which i. did this morning, will show nvidia. >> hopper that you're seeing on your. >> screen. selling at about. >> $29,000 a. >> piece. >> nvidia has a relatively. >> low exposure to china. >> at around. >> 15% of revenues. >> according to i o fund, similar. >> to both. >> amd and micron. but equipment manufacturers, they're the ones. >> that have greater exposure.

>> almost half of asml's. business goes to china. lam and applied materials also. >> face significant. >> risk. which really makes the. >> administration's efforts. >> to contain china's. >> ai ambitions. >> a real high. >> stakes game with billions hanging in the balance. >> but none. >> of. >> this is expected to. >> be imminent. >> in, let's say, the next month or so, >> guys. >> did was deep sea. revealing in. >> any way? >> obviously. >> the point of all of these policies have been to prevent china from having the. advanced semiconductor. capabilities and ai and military in particular. >> but i know deep tech was a big wake up. >> call in terms of cost. >> what about in terms of technological capability of these chinese? >> well, yeah. >> that's why we're seeing this russian order for. >> h. >> 20 because deep sea was able to provide advanced compute with. i'm not going to say lower. >> quality because. >> the h 20. >> s have great memory, but. >> a more. >> watered down version that is compliant. so now that would. >> be. >> the. >> next target for. >> the trump administration. >> because hey, look, china was able to be really. successful with. >> this lower tier chip.

>> so they're just going to keep doing it. but that's also. >> encouraging the. >> chinese market. >> to create and to overcome these hurdles. right. >> and make. >> quality chips and make advanced. >> large language models with what's. >> available at the moment. >> got it. >> christina, thank you. >> for the moment. >> we're seeing. >> a. >> lot of pressure on. >> these semis dragging. >> the entire. >> nasdaq down. >> nvidia at. >> the bottom. >> of the list. >> broadcom down. >> there as well. >> as we head to. >> break here's a roadmap for the rest. of the hour. >> home depot. >> posting positive comp store sales after. >> eight straight quarters of declines. >> how to play the stock from here. >> plus software software stocks such as palantir. they've been on a big rally, at least they did to start the year. >> but that breakout has been fading fast. >> speaking of. >> the ai. >> trade, another one. >> that has. >> been. >> fading recently. >> is the bullish narrative. >> starting to change. >> or is it. >> just. >> a blip? >> we will. >> talk about it with the nasdaq down almost 1.5%. >> this morning. >> don't go away.

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>> comps are normalizing. we're on a. >> path that if you look over the last two years where we had negative comps, you're cycling those tough comparisons and the industry naturally grows. we've given back the excess. consumption that occurred during the covid period, and we're normalizing some of the ticket, some in some deflationary pressure from the ticket. and so everything is starting to. stabilize to turn. you got a little bit of a bump from hurricanes from weather in the fourth quarter. but outside of that it looks like we're on this curve of stabilization. we're on this glide path to actually get a little bit stronger in 2025. >> i was going. >> to say seasonally, not a. >> bad time. >> to have. >> all. >> this happen, am i right? >> no. yeah. seasonally. right. i mean, weather is always a factor at. >> this point of the year. >> over the years, it's actually become a bigger and bigger factor. at the end of the. >> year. >> you want unfavorable weather because it's in the comparison base. and now we go into spring selling season. we'll see what happens. you mentioned the yield backdrop. that's not favorable. home depot even said that they're not building in much of

any change in housing turnover into their outlook, which is interesting because, you know, we're thinking it's going to be a little bit better. existing home sales up mid-single digits in 25. >> so if we. >> are talking more and more about a cyclical trough to what other names might your enthusiasm get spread? >> look, peak to trough. there's a bunch of names cyclical besides home depot. you know the number one competitor, lowe's flooring decor would be in that group. and then think about home furnishings. we have a bunch of home furnishing names, peaks and troughs. the idea is that demand is bottoming. earnings cycle runs. so restoration hardware is wayfair's williams-sonoma's of the world. that would be the group of stocks that would most check those boxes and most leverage to a housing recovery. >> are you seeing anything. in other areas of macro employment or spending intentions that might collide with a better demand backdrop. >> maybe just recently, a little. >> bit of wealth. >> effect sentiment? i think a little bit of uncertainty to

start the beginning of the year. even home depot said it themselves. there's some aversion to these higher rates. consumers are not taking on or borrowing money to pursue discretionary projects. that's pretty much it. we're overall stable. one of the things we've been watching for three years, service is spending, taking a lion's share of an overall consumer budget. service inflation is still sticky. we haven't fixed that yet, and the consumer is still spending on services, prioritizing some services, elective services like travel, leisure over non-elective ones like healthcare. so there's a lot of pressure on that wallet that's inhibiting how much the consumer can actually spend on goods. until that inflation moderates, we're pretty much stuck in this range, right? >> finally, this conference board number today, biggest drop since 2021, getting some attention in general, when. >> you. >> think of home builders or. home furnishing, anything housing related, does that lean toward the discretionary side, or is that something that if a consumer needs to do it, he's

going to do it? >> unequivocally, it leans towards discretionary. but in any given year, 90 to 95% of home improvement demand comes from homes that are not turning over. and that's somewhere 6,070% maintenance and repair. so the industry replenishes itself nicely year on year out. and that's the nice thing about the home home improvement industry. so 2,030% of the spend is probably discretionary. and then, you know, an additional 5 to 10% needs to come from turnover every given year. and turnover is directly related to discretion. >> oh interesting. well, we'll see what. >> kind of ratification we get from lowe's tomorrow. simeon, thanks very much, as always. >> thanks for having me. yep. >> things are getting. >> uglier, at least in the. >> nasdaq. >> which is now down almost 2%. >> as we speak. >> again. >> big heavyweights like nvidia, tesla, amazon, broadcom, microsoft, meta all dragging on the major average. and actually the dow has now joined the s&p and the nasdaq going red. the s&p down almost a full percent

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demand plus post-interview analysis jensen wong a cnbc special report tomorrow, 7 p.m. eastern on cnbc. >> just want to. >> show. >> you what's happening with the market, because we've seen. >> this. >> deterioration just in. >> the last few. minutes or so. at the. >> top of the hour. >> we got another. >> disappointing read on. consumer confidence. >> may have played into. >> the sell off exacerbating. it did. >> get some comments on the wire. >> from treasury. secretary scott bessent. >> one of them was the. >> private sector has. been in recession. talking about. >> cracks under. >> the. surface that he attributes. >> in part to some of the. >> spending in the biden administration. no question, it is tech that is bearing the brunt. >> of the selling. >> look at the nasdaq down 1.8%. >> tesla is a notable loser. >> new car registrations. >> falling 45.2% from last. >> year in january. >> in the eu, that's according to the european free trade association. >> and the. >> u.k. >> but we. >> are seeing a number of losers. >> nvidia, we. >> mentioned on that news about. >> more chip. >> crackdowns. >> and there's a bid for safety

and bonds. >> the ten year. >> treasury note yield down. >> below 4.3. the 30 year. >> yield around 4.5. >> and the two. >> year yield below 4.2. >> let's get to. >> seema mody, who is. >> tracking the. >> biggest software. >> names selling off as well. seema. >> well, sarah, we've been waiting. >> for details. >> on where the trump administration stands. on tech spending and where they could cut back. >> last night we got. >> a quick. >> look. >> with doge on x saying. >> it found. >> government agencies. often have more software. licenses than employees. >> take gsa. for example. that's the agency that tracks. >> federal property. >> doge found 7500. project management. >> software seats for a division with. >> only 5500 employees. >> of course, the question on wall street is. >> how does this. >> impact the likes. >> of oracle and. >> ibm that. >> count the. >> u.s. government as. >> a. >> customer service? >> now said it's federal business may be back end loaded. >> in. >> 2025, given. >> the. >> new administration's. >> new policies. while one stream. >> hinted at a decline in government contracts. >> for the fourth quarter into the first quarter and. also acknowledged. >> some level. >> of caution due to. washington

policies. for that. >> reason, bank of america. >> says stick to the. software names that are leaning. >> into ai. they like. >> palantir, calling. >> out its data analytical. >> software, seen. >> as. >> a tool that can add. >> efficiency to the government. when ceo alex. >> karp was. >> asked about. >> government cuts. >> yesterday at the economic club of new york, he rationalized the move, saying what's good. >> for the country is. ultimately good. >> for palantir, though we are seeing shares of palantir. down again. >> today, its fifth. >> straight day, straight days of losses. >> another headline not. >> helping software guys. >> the new. >> ftc chair ferguson, in a memo saying that the biden. >> administration's stringent. >> rules on mergers and acquisitions will. stay in place. so in. other words. >> he's. >> basically saying. >> don't expect any antitrust reviews. guys. >> we know. >> this is one subsector within tech that is expected. to benefit from more m&a and dealmaking. >> seema, thanks. this morning when we come back, the man advising america's biggest companies on their multi-billion dollar financings, goldman's johnny fain, will. >> join us here at post nine. >> break down this. market action as the triple q's. now in

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>> day sample pack. >> generics. >> now only a dollar. >> per tablet at. >> rex. >> m.d. 30. >> welcome back. i'm silvana now with your cnbc news update. britain announced plans to increase military spending today, and the move comes just days before prime minister keir starmer is set to meet with president trump at the white house. starmer says military spending will go up 2.5% by 2027, and 3% by the end of the next government's term, marking the largest sustained increase in defense spending since the end of the cold war. court documents show rudy giuliani fully satisfied the judgment that required him to pay $148 million to two former georgia election workers. a jury found giuliani baselessly accused the

women of fraud following the 2020 election, which president trump lost. the two sides reached a settlement in january that allowed giuliani to keep his florida condo and world. >> series rings. and fabric and craft chain joanne is closing all of its stores after more than 80 years in business. >> the company. >> will conduct going out of business sales at all of its 831 locations and online. this will be once it gets approval from a bankruptcy court. joanne filed for chapter 11 twice over the past year. sarah. end of an era for some. yes. yeah. some of my childhood projects. thank you. >> savannah. >> savannah. now. well, stocks are selling off. >> this hour. >> treasury yields are hitting their lowest levels since december. our next guest is in charge of corporate credit at goldman sachs, advising america's biggest. >> companies on. >> their. >> multi-billion-dollar financings. >> johnny fain is back. >> goldman's global head of investment grade debt. >> welcome. it's a good day to. >> have you because. >> we. >> are. seeing this rush now into bonds out of stocks.

>> yields lower i. >> mentioned earlier markets now seemingly worried more about growth than inflation. what's happening. >> so there's a lot of. >> undercurrents i think. >> driving current markets right now. >> i wouldn't underestimate that. we're moving. into a weaker seasonal period. we've seen some. >> challenges to. >> the. >> thesis around. >> the us consumer. we've seen some. >> challenges around the thesis around ai. we're obviously seeing a little bit of the fiscal. >> impulse turn negative. >> with the spending. >> cuts at doge. and what an ultimate budget might look like. and so it's no surprise to. >> me that. >> the market's grappling. with all of these crosscurrents. >> that. >> are taking place currently and saying, well, maybe we've come a little bit far, a little bit too fast. >> i remember. >> last. >> time you were on, you. >> said you. >> liked bonds. so that has obviously been a good bet. >> so far. >> you still like. them after this rally? >> i do. >> and i. >> think in. >> particular the. >> conventional wisdom. >> that. >> many have been. >> speaking. >> about for the last several. >> months. >> myself included. >> by the. >> way, has been. >> the monetary. policy is.

>> very much. >> on. >> the sidelines. >> i think. >> now all of a sudden. >> with the challenges. to financial conditions that we're. >> seeing. >> is that monetary policy is going to move to the front. >> burner again. >> pretty quickly. we've now priced in a full a full cut in the fed funds rate, an additional cut by the year end. we've done that in the last week or so, as markets have started to anticipate that the fed may react. >> to the environment. >> that. >> we're in, i don't know, may to. >> may quite possibly. >> quite possibly. >> i think all of the early. meetings that we're talking. >> about not being in play. >> i think all of a sudden we'll be looking for a slightly different rhetoric, especially if we start to see the. >> weakness in broader markets. >> persist in the way that. >> they have. >> so i actually think markets. >> are. >> thinking. >> if you look at kind of where terminal. >> rates are a year and a. >> half out, they're just under 375. it wouldn't surprise. me if ultimately we get that reprice to a number more like three and a. >> quarter. >> which is much. >> much closer. >> to, i think. >> the. >> fed's own estimate of where the neutral funds rate is. >> so if i'm a cfo or a treasurer right now, i'm like,

johnny, i've got an issue, but i don't time, you know, i have some time. should i wait? and where what part of the curve are my best sort of going to get my the best money from, you know, bang for my buck, so to speak right now. >> so duration. >> has been on vogue. >> for a little while now. >> the way that. the fixed income market structure in the us has evolved in the high yield environment that we have emerged. >> into over the last. >> couple of years or so. one of the biggest drivers of our market has been annuity writing and insurance markets and in long term savings markets, and that needs to get reinvested into the capital markets in. >> the. >> form of longer duration. so we've seen a strong bid in the long end of the curve really for kind of a year, year. >> and a half. >> now. obviously at a. >> lower level of yields that. >> we're at more nominally now. it makes. >> it more palatable. >> i think, for. >> issuers to consider. >> so i. >> like the long end of the curve. i think that's where the bedrock. of demand fits. >> the. >> best right now. but ultimately, if i'm sitting here and i'm looking at and surveying the environment that we're in, i don't think that i'm immediately

rushing to run into the market. but at the same time, you got to remember that the spread component of financing costs is still very, very close to multi-decade. that's where we sit today. >> yeah. what are where are. >> we right now? just put that in perspective. >> i think we. >> hit the tights maybe kind of a couple of weeks ago. >> we're maybe 5. >> to 10 basis points higher than. those tights, both in. >> ig as well as in high yield. >> if the fed were to. >> start removing some restriction, would they have to look past some of this hawkish inflation expectation data that we've gotten from some surveys? i think. >> they'd. have to assume. >> that the trend is going to continue. to move in the right direction. i.e, inflation expectations will continue to move lower, and actual inflation data that we start seeing play its. >> way through in the. >> real economy is moderating. and that, i think, would be a natural way that the fed may anticipate. >> especially if we're. >> seeing a little softening around the edges on the consumer. >> for example. do you think employment is at risk? >> i think employment. >> is probably more a. >> function of what's happening in the public sector as well as

what's happening. and we talked. about this last time with deportations. and so seeing how that immigration trend impacts, particularly the lower income part of the of the worker market. >> david, you talked about. >> this a lot yesterday with respect to construction workers. >> service workers. >> and so on. if that starts to. >> have an impact. then you could see. >> wage price inflation pressures there too. >> yeah. i mean. >> so hard for. >> the fed to respond. >> to that. >> to your. >> point in any. >> way. >> to. >> fight inflation. >> i. >> guess, you know, last time around and trump 1.0, it was really the stock market. there was. >> this idea of. >> a trump. >> put this time. >> haven't heard. >> him talk. >> as much. >> about. >> the stock. market as rates. and the treasury secretary says we want lower rates even today on the wires. he's speaking to an australian. treasurer talking. about easier monetary policy, lower interest rates. >> they think cost cutting is going to. >> result in lower. >> interest rates. what does that do? >> does that. mean don't fight the trump administration? >> is that another. >> reason to buy bonds here? >> well, i think. >> what's really. >> fascinating to me. is the

amount of focus and attention there is from the administration on the ten year part of the. >> curve. >> like a real acknowledgment that it's that part of the market that is a much bigger driver of, for example, mortgage interest expense. >> in the us than necessarily. >> what the fed does at the front end. and so we've heard a lot of rhetoric geared towards. >> that, certainly with. >> respect to the us has. >> a. spending problem. >> which is what. >> scott bessent said. >> during his. >> confirmation hearings has said. multiple times since then. and kind of. >> interestingly, when you. >> wind the clock back to last september or october, when everyone. >> was going through. >> the machinations of outcomes on markets based upon different. election outcomes, everyone i spoke to a broad consensus that red sweep. >> would be the. >> most negative for term yields, because no one was really running on a lower spending administration that really wasn't part of the. campaign pledge we heard from either side. yet the big surprise, i think, to all of us has been the administration has been incredibly fiscally hawkish, at least insofar. >> as its. >> rhetoric is concerned thus

far. and that, i think, has ignited a lot of the downward pressure on term yields that we've seen with term premium going from 65 basis points in early january to only 35 basis points now. >> and obviously. >> we're now more than 50 basis points off of the wides that we saw in january. >> do you. >> think. >> that does that change if tax cuts come through aggressively? >> it depends on what we need to obviously see what the fiscal budget ends up being scored like. so right now we have very aggressive. fiscally hawkish rhetoric. >> whether the bill. >> itself is fiscally hawkish. that's a little bit. >> of a wait and see trade for us. >> yeah we don't know where. >> the cuts. >> would. >> come from anyway. >> in. >> that reconciliation bill. >> johnny thank you. >> good. good day to have you. >> thank you. >> time to talk. >> about to see you. >> thank you for having. >> from goldman sachs. >> still ahead this morning nvidia shares have gone nowhere since about june of last year. a number of other ai related names have sold off. as you know, we're going to discuss if this bullish narrative is changing for good when we come back. >> trend tracker is sponsored by cme group. cme group, where risk

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better coverage than i do. >> sounds like linda has you beat. >> not at bowling. >> you're breaking up a little. >> are you really ranked. >> number one. >> in coverage? >> yep. and plans. >> start at just $20. >> oh. >> we could afford lessons for linda. >> you're embarrassing yourself. >> at least my phone works. >> switch to. >> the carrier. >> ranked number. >> one in network coverage satisfaction. call or visit consumer cellular today. >> welcome back nvidia. one of the biggest laggards in the mag seven this morning. it's down as you see more than 2.5%. >> some 2.8%. >> on pace for what will be a third consecutive day of losses. shares of basically gone on a round trip since june of last year, or other mega-cap names. microsoft, google parent alphabet have also been lower, at least for this month. and the ai related etfs, they've also been selling off, at least again

in recent weeks. our next guest says when it comes to ai, the revenue isn't there yet and might never come. gary marcus, new york university professor he's an expert in ai, joins us now. gary, good to have you. good to have you back. thanks for listening to a podcast last night with satya nadella, who runs microsoft. talking about the fact that in his belief, it doesn't even need to be winner take all, there are going to be so many beneficiaries in terms of the various platforms, whether it be open ai or grok three, or you can go through so many of the different names and that in fact, it could add as much as much efficiency that we get 10% gdp growth. his words, not mine. why do you disagree? >> i mean. >> so. >> far we certainly haven't seen that. >> and i mean, he actually acknowledged. >> that a couple. >> days ago. >> you know, in the long. >> term over the 30 or 50 year horizon. >> sure. but the ai that we have. >> right now is not very reliable. hallucinations have. >> been. >> a problem since the jump. they're not solved. these stupid errors that they sometimes make

are not solved. grok was 15 times, grok three was 15 times bigger in terms of its training than grok two. they had to build two giant new data centers, and it still has the same problems that we keep seeing over. >> and over again. >> deep learning is the technique that people are using. it's a fine technique, but it's not the answer, i think, to artificial general intelligence. and if you want that 10% gdp bump, you might need something that is more reliable, is better able to understand symbolic knowledge that humans use and so forth. >> so we may need. >> some advances before we can get to that kind of big bump. >> meanwhile. >> with what we have, everybody tries it out. but lots of companies are disappointed when they really try it out in detail. >> yeah, i mean, the enterprise is obviously a key. user question, i guess. i mean, i've been trying all of the various bots and grok three certainly did seem to be pretty impressive in many ways. what gives you doubt then, in terms of the enterprise and in terms of this leap being available in the near

term for many of these, for many of these companies, a lot. >> of. >> these things are impressive. >> but when you dive deep, you find that there are. >> errors that are often subtle. >> so, for example, i asked grok three to give me a list of all the cities west of denver and give me their populations. and it just left out billings, montana. and you know, the output looks clean, but you don't notice that. then it told me there was a 5.7, i think, earthquake in billings, montana, like a week before and it didn't actually exist. people aren't going to notice that at first. but if you have customers in those areas, get out. that's going to cost you, right? customers expect reliability, and i think that's been what has held people back is the reliability is just not there. >> some of the. >> answers as well. gary, on the on the inference front, i mean, you know, we're moving now. obviously chatgpt r 3.0 for example. and reasoning you also finding fault with these these models. yeah. >> the examples i gave actually were with the reasoning based system. so you know, calling it

reasoning is almost like hype. it doesn't reason in the way that logicians have talked about for centuries, where you really represent something in a truly abstract form. the reason that it does depends on how close something is to something in the training data, and that means that it works better on these benchmarks for math and coding, where they can do verification tricks and data augmentation than it does in the real world. you push it out of its comfort zone, so to speak, being anthropomorphic, and it winds up still making mistakes not all the time, but these subtle mistakes that get passed. even when you have the so-called reasoning, i think we need some genuine advance in reasoning, probably drawing on some techniques from classical ai that are out of favor. before we get to something we can really count on. >> hey gary, you said this week i think. >> that the end game. >> in your view, for. >> ai was surveillance. >> and that you think we're essentially there. what leads you to that? >> well, so doge is basically surveilling, you know, reading the emails of, you know,

government employees. that is a huge step towards 1984. and i had said before that i thought openai would be pushed in that direction for some of the reasons that we're talking about. so openai has incredible personal data from people. people use it as almost like a psychotherapist or something like that. so they put in a lot of personal data, or companies put in a lot of personal or business related data. that's quite private. >> and so. >> openai is sitting on all of this data, but because of the reliability problems that i just mentioned, which afflict them as much as grok and anybody. >> else, they. >> aren't getting the sort of traditional customers they were hoping, you know, the fantasy was everybody was going to use this stuff for everything. it was going to be general intelligence. it's going to replace every employee. that's not really working out until they have some major advance in the ai. i don't think it's going to work out as well as they. >> thought. >> but they can always sell the data and that's pushing them towards surveillance. >> i would. >> just end with, i mean, openai is going to be valued perhaps as much as 300 billion post-money from softbank money coming in.

they're going to do probably 12 billion in revenues this year. they just put up for that. they went from 300 to 400 weekly average million weekly average users. it doesn't appear that they're suffering right now gary. >> yeah, but. >> you have. >> to. >> look at the economics of how much it costs to run what they're doing, to do what they're doing. so, you know, they lost money last year. they're losing money on their newest search. by sam's own testimony. they're just, you know, this is not like the traditional internet, where the cost of the software running the software was minimal and almost everything was margin. these models are incredibly expensive to build. they're incredibly expensive to operate. and so 12 billion sounds like a lot. but this is a company that has taken in a lot more of that is about to take another $30 billion. i would guess that they'll lose $10 billion this year. so yes, they'll bring in 10 or 12 or whatever, but then they'll spend another ten. so they're continuing to lose money. the economics don't really make obvious sense to me. yeah. >> well, it's certainly something we're going to pay

close attention to and look forward to continuing our conversation. gary, thank you. always a pleasure. thanks for. >> having me. gary. >> marcus. sure. quick programing note a whole lot more, of course, on all things ai. the there's the man at the center of it all. nvidia is going to report earnings tomorrow. and jensen wong will be part of a cnbc special report following that earnings report. that's tomorrow 7 p.m. eastern. >> well that's a treat getting. >> to hear from him. checking back. >> on the broader. >> market still. >> in sell off. >> mode right now. we've come. back a little bit. still down three. >> quarters of a percent on the. >> s&p 500. >> nasdaq down 1.5%. >> the dow. >> looking a little. >> bit better. >> it's the. >> usual. >> suspects like nvidia. >> tesla. amazon that are. >> selling off the hardest. tesla also a notable underperformer and treasury still quite in demand. some of this is around tariffs. white house senior counselor for trade and manufacturing peter navarro is going to be with. us in just ten. >> minutes. >> minutes. >> on some of these new tariff it's a smart move to get a second opinion.

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scare. definitely the bond market suggesting that that's of concern consumer confidence. and then treasury secretary benson's comments which effectively say oh the private sector's already been in a recession. if you take away the deficit spending and we want to get to 3% of gdp. if you take it on face value, it's okay. let's just front load the recession. nobody thinks that's really going to happen, but it just adds to the unease. bank stocks down with yields down does tell you to me that we're sort of you know the cyclical confidence is depleting at the same time. and it's really a separate and parallel situation. people spent up their risk budgets and got the speculative stuff to a point where it really needed this massive reset lower. and that's where we are now. i mean, you look at amazon goes down every day a lot. you know, that's not even one of those names where you say, oh, that was a retail crazy story. it's essentially this big unwind. now, i've been skeptical that we could get the rotation out of the mag seven into the rest of the market and have it be painless and seamless and in stride. it's mostly been that. honestly. i mean, you're only down 3% in the s&p. and, you

know, if you look at excluding the mac seven, it's been outperforming year to date. but can you hope for that persisting. or are we just going to have some fragility with a 20 vix suggests is a is a possibility. >> are you impressed with. >> some. >> of the desk notes that talked. >> about. flows and. >> positioning. >> and said to. >> look out for the back half of february? >> well, sure. i mean it's sort of worked out that way, especially if you look at the history of this sort of rush toward the risky parts of the market into a new year. you have good precedent for a first quarter top in those types of flow based risk appetite. tales like the nasdaq composite and like some low quality tech. the breadth is okay today. i mean, it's kind of fascinating that the defensive stocks are stepping in as well as rate sensitive homebuilders are up a couple of percent. so you've got this thermostatic result where maybe you can you can sneak your way through it. >> this the market. >> pushing the fed. >> into an earlier. >> rate cut. >> i think the market i don't know about pushing the fed but the market sort of reading the conditions that might get the

fed. >> they're pricing. >> in. >> more cuts. >> well yeah. but i think responding to the types of numbers and disinflationary impacts that would get the fed there. yeah, i don't think it's a bullying move. i think it's much more that reading, you know, reading the room and seeing the direction of things and where the thresholds are for a potential cut. mike thank you. mike santoli with the nasdaq down 1.4% though well off the lows of the session reached about let's call it 20 or so minutes ago. you can see the s&p also down as well. a lot more live market coverage for you straight ahead. >> as. >> we empower those who act. those who see the correlation between things above and things below the surface, those who navigate risk by meeting every turn with a heightened. awareness of what's possible, constant assessment.

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treatment of alzheimer's disease. pioneering a new approach to treating alzheimer's. tiziana life sciences stock symbol tlsa on the nasdaq. >> for me. >> squawkbox is breakfast. >> with most interesting. >> people in the world. >> it's a privilege. >> to get to talk to them every day. >> it's more. >> entertaining than any other morning show, but you might get some useful information. >> squawk box weekday mornings, 6 a.m. eastern. cnbc. >> good tuesday morning. welcome to money movers. i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen, live at post nine of the new york stock exchange. today, the president says tariffs on canada and mexico. >> will. >> go forward as planned, now threatening retribution on countries that impose digital service taxes on. >> big tech. >> white house senior counselor for trade and manufacturing peter navarro is going to join us in a minute. live from washington. >> plus the s&p. >> and nasdaq coming off of three straight losing sessions, extending those declines again today after. >> a. >> weaker consumer confidence number point