perspective. >> take care. >> well and all of that. the importance of nvidia is why we got a special report tomorrow 7 p.m. eastern, when i'll speak with nvidia ceo jensen huang about those earnings right after the earnings call. plus, don't miss my extended first on cnbc interview with amazon ceo andy jassy. tomorrow, 1 p.m. on the exchange. that's it for overtime. fast money starts now. >> live from the nasdaq. >> market site in the heart. >> of new york city's times square. this is. >> fast money. here's what's on tap tonight. risk off from tesla tanking to. bitcoin below 90. >> k to rates. >> rolling back. investors seem to be fleeing the momentum trades. will the pain continue and how should you play the moves. >> in nvidia on deck. the chip. >> giant and. >> ai darling gearing up to report. >> tomorrow night. what can we expect to hear from the company and how will markets react? plus, home depot breaks its comp sales losing streak. lilly gets a boost thanks to a price cut for zip code, and instacart does not deliver on earnings. how to trade that stock now i'm melissa

lee, live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight tim seymour, dan nathan, guy adami and mike co. but we start off with the wreckage of the risk on trade, the tech heavy nasdaq leading the market losses today, dropping for a fourth straight session closing at three month lows. all but one member of the mag seven was down today, the group losing a combined $300 billion in market cap during this session. and take a look at some other high tech, high fliers applovin, palantir, intel all getting their wings clipped as investors begin a mad dash into safe havens. even gold unable to escape today's carnage, the precious metal falling from all time highs as investors look for even safer places to put their cash. so does the risk off run from tech have even further to go? guy. >> first of all. >> welcome back melissa. >> great to be back. >> great to. >> be back. >> john sebastian. >> john welcome back. >> kotter in this case. >> melissa. melissa. much much. better. >> i think gabe. >> kaplan would would. let's talk. >> about let's talk about the

market. no. >> clearly a risk off day. and the thing that really struck me the most was the fact that yields are now below, you know, 4.35, which i. >> thought should have. >> been support. so flight to quality or perceived quality in the form of the bond market. gold sells off in an environment where it should have actually done well. and then obviously these individual names. but of all the things in the bond markets on the top of the list, the fact that the vix, probably at its highest close in a while is something i think people should pay attention to. i thought for a while that volatility is going to be a story. and it's starting to rear its ugly head. now. >> if you think about. >> where the market was most concerned. >> maybe a month ago, it was all about inflation. i think we say this a lot. what's more critical, what's more anxiety provoking for the market? it's not inflation, it's a growth scare. and so we talked about those those names that we posted at the top of the show. those are high growth companies. so they're going to be hurt the most. also very interesting that in the craziness that we've also, i think kind of chronicled in the market in terms of some of the go go stocks, the meme stocks, how about these levered etfs that have been exposed to whether it's, you know, the mag

seven or just nvidia or microstrategy. so these are these are places where i think there's been a lot of pain. but if you look at the data that's coming through, it was a consumer confidence report out today. that was the lowest since april 21st. i think consumer, you know, surveys are less important than real data in terms of retail sales. but housing, retail sales service pmis have all been weaker. so again you get back to the market that we have. and you look at the weakness in the mag seven. and i'll go again straight to the semiconductors which look like we're getting a bear cross which look like we are back to essentially march of 2024, the places where you had the growth, the places. and this is going into an nvidia print tomorrow. so it's a gross scare people. it's not inflation. >> well, it's. >> not. >> only a growth scare, it's also a popping of a bubble. and i don't mean the whole market was a bubble. i don't mean the nasdaq was a bubble. but there were some very bubblicious stocks. if you just pull up applovin and palantir, these are two names that we've talked a lot about. >> most investors. >> who have been buying these over the last few months. >> or. >> so don't. >> even. know what. >> these companies do. they

don't. you know, palantir had a 300 billion. >> i mean. love it. but this was nearly a. >> $200 billion. >> market cap company that has been up 500% in the last year or so. same thing for palantir. so we're. >> talking about a $300 billion market. >> cap for palantir at one point a. >> $200 billion nearly for app loving these two stocks. if you put them up next. >> to each other they. >> look identical. >> they both just had these blowout quarters and guidance. and the stock's. >> gapped. >> up 25%. they've since. >> filled in both. >> of those gaps. so you tell me whether it's going to find support here. there's no valuation support. there's no support as it relates to these stories in the market like this. that's trading at a valuation that it is broadly. >> so i. >> think when you see this sort of thing, i think it's healthy to see this sort of action come out. i think it's healthy that bitcoin finally broke that $90,000 or whatever you want, psychological level, because you still have an s&p that's up on the year, which is pretty shocking. take a lot of that froth out of the market. >> is meta and applovin. i mean we're talking about the company that everyone could find every reason to own. it was the one thing that was impervious. it's

down 13.5% from that intraday high that it hit, i don't know, 4 or 5 days ago after it was completing a 16 day in a row run. so it's the pain within the mega-caps that i think is the most interesting. it's the fall from grace. and again, a handful of these stocks are through their deep seek intraday low. so remember we all know you where you were when you heard that news and what the market was doing. a lot of those stocks ironically not nvidia going into tomorrow's print which may be a concern for people. but again all the big boys that we wanted to see kind of re rally from that they did and they've given it back and then some. >> i mean, there are questions about the ai trade that go back to deep sea. there are questions about the tariff environment. there are questions about export controls impacting tech. there's a question about enterprise spending overall, michael. i mean, if you were to sort of pinpoint the one thing that concerns you the most because it's not just, you know, mega-cap tech that's there's something bigger here going on in terms of sentiment in the market. something is changing. >> well, i think there's two things really. dan was sort of talking about it and that is

that there's a lot of stocks in here where the valuations are pretty questionable. i mean, tesla obviously is another one. pretty hard to get your arms around the valuation in that one. but even sort of mature big companies that are operating well but are trading at multiples that are hard to justify. i've mentioned walmart before i think is a good example. and another thing to think about, if there's a risk off type of a market, then and everybody's been talking a lot about the fact that we have a lot of passive investing, that tends to basically be a propellant for a lot of the largest cap companies. well, the opposite is also going to be true, right? if people start taking risk off the table, it's the biggest market cap constituents of the index that are going to feel it the hardest. so, you know, i think probably if we take a look at a historical, you know, appropriate earnings multiple for the s&p, it could arguably be 20% lower than the highs that we saw recently. so you know, if you were going to have a correction or worse it probably makes sense from a fundamental perspective. >> you know we talked. >> about this last night mel.

but if you look, you know, i would think i would have thought this as well, except that i look at it all day, every day. but the sm is one of the things that everybody looks at that made its all time high in july of last year, and it's been trending lower ever since. if you want to pull up a chart. 235 is critical support. we're basically there now. and microsoft, which again, one of the most important companies in the world, let alone stocks in the world is now below $400. another name that probably made its high around that same time. so below the surface with again the s&p effectively at all time highs, the damage is being done in what theoretically should be carrying the water here. well, i think. >> the below the surface thing is really important. go back to 2021. right. so we had a market at all time highs. the s&p made a new all time high the first week of 2022. but under the surface, there was a lot of stuff that worked really well in 2020 and 2021 that started to roll over. it actually brings me back not too differently than the year 2000, and i know a lot of folks who are watching the show. they've been with guy for the 18 years that the show has been on here. but, you know, it was a very similar sort of thing. i mean, the market, the

s&p had made a high. there was some stuff in the nasdaq that started rolling over. they led to the downside. but the. s&p is always like the alamo. it's kind of going to be the last thing the last man standing. if you. >> think about what's going on. >> over the last 25 years, it's been tech that's always led the way. that's always done the heavy lifting. >> some of the. >> names have changed. but when you think about. >> the. >> stocks tim's been mentioning, it's been underperforming for like nine. >> months right now. >> nvidia has been the. >> whole. >> story, but nvidia has been. >> underperforming the broad market too. so i guess the underpinnings. >> of this secular trade seems to be that they're ready to take a little bit of a breather. >> this is exactly why europe is doing better. yeah, i mean, our tech weakness, right, is your if you take a look at msci all country ex us it's up 7% for the year. the us the s&p 500 is up what 2% or something like that. china is doing better europe is doing better. >> tim wait are we trading the globe right here? we should be. >> we should be. well, i'm glad you mentioned international because it's outperformed the s&p depending on what you're looking at. europe certainly i run an international etf. i devo the dynamic for an sap or a

siemens or a barclays or a mitsubishi. so these are dynamics that are really interesting. the days of us exceptionalism, exceptionalism. on the gdp front, there's a there's at least a few economists out there saying that the gdp gap between the us and europe is going to be, you know, half a percent, which is as tight as it's been in a long time. so i think you can stay there. i think those valuations are really compelling. and i think you have the dividend yield to go along with it. but i think you have to be careful about assuming everything is going downhill. i want to just put in a positive word for the market here. i think things are a little oversold. i think you've got a dynamic here where some of these defensive stocks were trading so well until about three weeks ago, and it wasn't just because there was growth opportunities elsewhere. be careful jumping into names that have rallied that are staples and moved 15%. >> so it's great when we have our emerging markets specialist with us. but i will mention. >> in the house, you mean. >> in the house? >> yes. >> vw z mel, if you recall, when we were at the conference at the end of january, we talked about the brazil etf. that is an emerging market that has been doing extraordinarily well for

the last two and a half months. and that is about, i think, to break a 17 year downtrend. so keep an eye on that. >> meantime, the trump administration is planning to beef up biden era export controls, further restricting what nvidia can send to china without a license. cnbc's eamon javers has got more on this. eamon. >> yeah, melissa, this. >> is a. >> report from bloomberg earlier today that the trump administration is eyeing even tougher restrictions on semiconductor exports to china than the recent biden administration had put in place, and those were deemed to be pretty significant at the time, citing people familiar with the matter. bloomberg reports that trump administration officials are holding meetings to discuss new limits with key us allies, and working on a longer list of restrictions that could be put in place in the coming months. the goal here, overall, is to slow china's technological progress, and especially so in sensitive areas like artificial intelligence. the trump team is looking at three specific possibilities curbs on sales of chips that nvidia designed

specifically for china, reducing the computing power that can be exported without a license, and putting more restrictions on the types of nvidia chips that can be exported without a license. now, all of this is likely to unfold over the next several months, so we're going to have to wait and see how it plays out. no indication that any of this is immediate, melissa, but it's something to watch. >> all right. eamon thank you eamon javers. so yet another pressure on the chip sector. something that nvidia specifically will be forced to deal with if this comes to fruition. we should note too. there was a reuters report today. >> too right. >> yeah. that there is a pull forward basically on the h20, the chip that's made specifically for export to china from the major chinese firms like alibaba, tencent, bytedance. ahead, probably of these export threats. >> yeah. and there's an argument that deep seac did all they needed to with the a100 chips before the ban went into place. and but the other and the other thing that's part of that note that you're talking about from reuters, is that there's apparently there's going to be an r two release in deep sea

coming through, which is going to be going to have better coating. it's going to be multi-language. and i think it's a case where this is part of what has the market concerned. every hyperscaler has kind of indicated we're going to continue to spend, because what else are they going to say? i'm not saying that that that that's also failed in a theory and that it's been proven that deep seac is the answer. i'm just saying that the reality is there really is a tug of war out here, and deep sea is putting the pressure on. >> yeah. the more restrictions that you might find on exports, you might find the deep sea that are innovating in a way. i mean, you could look at the ev market and look at the competition there. i mean, byd is finding a way to get around some of the innovations that we've had here by elon musk and tesla and the like here. so again, we can either kind of figure out how to work with china or we can have this very adversarial approach. i'm not saying that what these, you know, both administrations have done with this chip, you know, kind of bans is the wrong thing to do. i think, for national security reasons. i think we want to get our arms around this. but when it comes to things like evs and, you know, like microprocessors going

into some useless consumer products, i think that's probably less interesting. >> 74% gross margins to me. i mean, i think that's what you have to look for. and i'm hard pressed to believe they're going to get there. and if you start seeing margins i'm talking about nvidia decelerate. i mean, that's when you start to get concerned because then all of a sudden you start looking at their revenue vis a vis their eps and say, you know what? they've been out earning their revenue stream and margins are gonna start to contract. and that's when you get a problem with the valuation. >> all this of course nvidia is reporting earnings tomorrow for what to expect. let's bring in fast money friend gene munster. he's a managing partner of deepwater asset management. gene always great to see you. oh hello. wedbush is saying that they they're looking for a $2 billion beat and a $2 billion raise. that's what the market's expecting. do you think they deliver. expectations are so melissa. >> yeah. >> no i think that they will do deliver. >> on that. >> in part. >> because supplies improved. >> meaningfully over the last month to two months. and so that really is the bogey that kind of 21. 8 to 2 billion beat.

>> for the quarter. >> i would mention that i think there's something bigger at play here. and just to kind of shortcut what to look for when these numbers come out, i just mentioned the gross margin number. that's important. but i think what's even more important is we're going to see two press releases that come out, one the earnings and second, a letter from their cfo. in that letter there, it will likely be some commentary about what is the demand, how far they're out with the supply demand equilibrium related to blackwell. and i suspect that they're going to say we're four quarters out basically through all of 2020 calendar 25, they're going to be essentially sold out of blackwell. if that language is in there. i think that that is going to be a reassuring comment for ai investors. if they maintain that it's just several quarters out. like she said in last quarter's letter, i think that's going to send kind of a shock wave. so that's probably the piece that i think investors

are going to dig most into related to the nvidia earnings. >> do you think they address deep seek? >> yes. i mean, it's going to come up. and i think that tim had some comments about like, you know, these hyperscalers and what they're spending. they will reiterate that. and i think that i just want to emphasize a piece related to deep seek relative to what the hyperscalers said, going into deep seek. just before it came out, the hyperscalers were expected to increase their capex spend by 20% in calendar 25. now it's expected to be just above 40%. that's a meaningful move higher. and so i think that really is important. and i think the substance of that, and we may not see that in how nvidia trades on thursday morning. but i think the substance of this is that the ai hardware trade will last longer than most investors expect, and understand kind of the apprehension about the funk that the ai trade is right now. but if what these hyperscalers are saying is true, companies like nvidia should have more

upside throughout this year than investors are currently anticipating. >> so, jane, what's the other side of that though? so i hear you and i kind of agree with everything you just said, but deep tech introduced a level of at least uncertainty around what spend means and who benefits from deep tech. and have you gotten bullish because of deep tech and other directions? >> yeah, i think that i would say what consensus is, is that consensus is deep. seek has been a positive for ai hardware. it's nvidia stock hasn't reflected it. market's not buying it. but that's what the i think that's the substance of this i think when it comes to the cost of ai inference it's going to go through the floor. sam altman said after deep seek that they expect the cost of tokens to go down 10 to 12 x per year for their second tier model. i mean, that's basically through the floor. and i think the third piece to this, if those two happen, we get this hardware build out, we get the cost of compute or the cost of inference declining. i think you're going to see some just profound

impacts. and so i'm still bullish on this market. i think that what we're seeing right now is a funk. and i think that we still got two great years left of this ai trade. >> jane, you've had a great call on this. the trajectory of the demand for this over the last couple of years. it doesn't seem like you're pulling back at all. what excites you? like, we don't spend a lot of time talking about apple. apple intelligence. i think we all agree to date, it's not particularly exciting. do you see an opportunity for an apple if the cost of compute is coming down? the cost of inference? doesn't that make it that much more attractive for developers? and talk to us a little bit about what that could mean for apple. >> yeah, we saw a little bit of that too, in terms of what how the market reacted when deep sea came out. apple tended to do pretty good because that piece of the cost of inference goes down. that should help, should help the likelihood that developers come and build these ai applications. and so i think that apple is a beneficiary today. i think their shareholder meeting was was largely scripted. there wasn't much of anything that came out of

substance beyond the fact that the company continues to believe in this opportunity. it's going to take longer. i think the cost of ai decline is going to be a positive for apple, probably six months out before i think we get a really compelling apple intelligence, but i think it is around the corner. >> all right. thanks, gene. great to see you. gene munster thank you. and do not miss cnbc special report tomorrow following nvidia's earnings, john ford will speak with ceo jensen huang covering the numbers, ai strategy, chip demand and more. that's 7 p.m. eastern time right here on cnbc. mike, if you expect some trouble in nvidia's report, how do you protect yourself here? >> yeah, i think, you know, one of the things you can do right now, the options market is implying a move of about 8.5% after they report, which is not that surprising when you consider, i think, eight spot one. five or so is what the company has averaged over the last four reported quarters. i will say that two of the bigger drawdowns we saw were at this time of year, in 21 and in 22 when they reported. so i think

one of the things you could do is try to minimize your premium outlay, buy a downside put spread. i was looking at the 125 115 and then sell an upside call at the 140 strike. that's going to basically have no net debit or credit. and it gives you, you know, meaningful protection. it's about a 7.9% worth of protection to the downside if the stock should fall by the implied amount, but you still have upside to almost 10% up to that 140 strike. but and you know, we took a look and over the last 44 reported quarters, this would have helped you about 16 times, would have been a knock against you about eight times. and the rest of the time it wouldn't have had any net impact to hedge yourself this way. so in general, i think this is probably the best way to do it. >> all right. well, we got some breaking news here i want to get to on supermicro the company filing their long delayed 10-k in time for the nasdaq filing deadline. kristina partsinevelos has got the details. christina. >> well, delinquent. no more the server summer, like you mentioned, finally filing their delayed quarterly and full year results. a quick recap, though, for q1 and q2 revenues were

amiss, and we're not going to compare earnings per share numbers because analysts use an adjusted figure. supermicro doesn't provide comparable numbers. this is a company, though. just a quick recap. they had a short seller go after them last year. an auditor quit. there's an ongoing doj and sec investigation. and yet the stock has jumped what, 50% into the close today, year to date in the risk section of the financial filings tonight. supermicro saying that there is no material impact on the company's consolidated financial condition, results of operations or liquidity as of december 31st, 2024. so a seen as a sign of strength. and then the company also ensuring assuring investors that their current cash and cash equivalents will be sufficient to support their business operations and interest payments for this entire year. so those are two positive notes in the risk section, and shares are jumping 17% on this guys. >> all right christina. thanks, christina partsinevelos. this is a crazy story. i mean, that we've been following. and they're back in the nasdaq now i

guess. are they they're not delinquent. >> prior to your trip. you know, we i think the stock was trading 46. and we said, listen you don't can't short the stock. it probably has room to 72 actually think it got to 66 and then backed all the way back down. and here we are. so personally i think you're looking for a level where you pull the ripcord on this thing. and i do think it's in the low 70s. i don't think it's fixed by any stretch, but this could create a real huge short covering opportunity. >> coming up, a lot of earnings action to bring you still instacart, caesars, workday much more all on the move after hours. the details, the numbers for the quarter ahead. and speaking of results, home depot heading higher on the back of its report this morning. and for a store known for fixing things, the retailer is breaking a key losing streak. how the sales are losing streak. how the sales are stacking up and ♪ empower ♪ so handsome. oh, i can't buy this. woah, woah. your empower investment account has grown. you earned it, so... (♪♪) get good at money. so you can be a little bad. empower.

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dave's been very excited about saving big with the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. five years? -five years. and he's not alone. -high five. it's five years of reliable gig speed internet. five years of advanced securit. five years of a great rate that won't change. it's back. but only for a limited time. high five. five years? -nope. comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. powering five years of savings. powering possibilities. comcast business. secret to better odor control everywhere. >> welcome back to fast money bitcoin plunging below $90,000, hitting a three month low. the cryptocurrency, now nearly 20% below the record high hit on inauguration day. that's bad news for strategy. formerly known as microstrategy. the bitcoin proxy play falling nearly 13% today. our own tanya mckeel has more on these moves. tanya. >> yeah. >> melissa. >> bitcoin sort of at a critical juncture here. if you're not a long term holder hovering under

90 k, which is the bottom of the range bitcoin's been trading in for the past three months. and then microstrategy you said it lowest close since the election after it just bought more bitcoin yesterday. and what you're seeing here is definitely part of the overall risk off move in markets. i know that there was a. huge crypto hack last week, biggest in history. and it is interesting because bullish sentiment in crypto and the enthusiasm around. our new crypto administration is still very high. and the thing is that since we got trump's executive order on crypto at the end of january, which i think was widely anticipated and for the most part very well received, crypto investors haven't had a clear catalyst to get them through this macro uncertainty. now, so investors i spoke with today say there's certainly room for bitcoin to pull back, maybe all the way to 70 k if it doesn't retake 90 k until we get that catalyst. melissa. >> today i'm just curious what your thoughts are on on strategy. the average holding of the average price of their bitcoin holdings is 66,000. and you mentioned 70,000 as a key level that investors are

watching and wondering, you know, if there's no coincidence to those levels. yeah. >> certainly something on a lot of people's minds. i was talking with mark palmer from benchmark today, and he was looking at that contract and was basically explaining that strategy. has it set up in a way so that there's no trigger clause. so, you know, there should there should not be any fears about a new low in bitcoin. you know, in terms of forced liquidations or anything like that. >> okay tanya thank you. tanya mckeel on bitcoin's massive move. you know, we had rebecca patterson on, i think like a month ago talking about bitcoin and saying that all these things that are proposed by the trump administration that would be catalysts for bitcoin, they take months to do. they take months to enact at the sec level or at the federal level. so what are investors expecting here? >> yeah, i am hard pressed to believe we'll get a bitcoin strategic reserve through treasury or through congress. so

and to your point, even if it was, it would take months if not longer than that. so the immediacy of this whole thing and the reason why i think bitcoin went from maybe 75,000 to 109 or so post-election was on the back of that. now we're on the other side. but your question about the price and their average price strategy is exactly right. and with each passing week, they'll buy more. their average will go up. and if the price continues to go down, they will meet at some level, probably 72,000. and that's when things i think get really interesting. >> mike, your thoughts on strategy or the bitcoin move? >> yeah, i mean one of the things we're certainly seeing, you know, when you have a risk off situation, there's a lot of participants in in crypto that are, you know day trading this or you know using this as a short term trading instrument and those kinds of participants, you know, are probably weak hands, as they say in the crypto space. i mean, i still like it in the in the long term. but, you know, volatility is definitely a part of the reality of this asset class. and you know, as far as macro strategy is concerned, you know with

their with their bonds essentially as zero coupon bonds i mean they basically are able to hang in there for quite a while. but i mean, it wouldn't surprise me to see further weakness if the rest of the market selling off as well. >> meantime, we've seen related weakness in the exchanges like coinbase as well as robinhood. >> yeah. in fact, you can make an argument that some of these ancillary plays have they've even had more leverage. they obviously have more leverage as they always do. and it gets back to where i just think liquidity in markets and where the momentum has has broken. and there's no question that some of these things were part of a hysteria that was tied to leverage. it wasn't just, you know, folks that were investing through cash. >> you know, it's funny when you speak of leverage, you think trading platforms and the like, you just mentioned some that are not trading particularly well. look at cme group. it's trading at, you know, 52 week highs near all time highs. and you think in a macro sort of environment where we have lots of risk assets moving around, that makes sense to me. i can see if meme stocks are getting killed. while you might want not to go the meme stock machines, but maybe on the future side, that's a

little more interesting. >> coming up, improving sales for a home improvement giant home depot getting a boost after its latest results. we'll drill down on the quarter and what it says about the housing sector next. and economic uncertainty or flight to safety. what is moving the bond market right now? our own rick santelli says it could be a little bit of both. his take on the rate route and where yields could be headed next. you're watching fast money live from the nasdaq market site live from the nasdaq market site in times square. back at ameriprise financial we know our clients are so much more than clients. they're conquerors and champions, and what matters most to them matters most to us. it's no wonder we have a 4.9 out of five client satisfaction rating. ameriprise financial. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job on indeed, it's easier for talented candidates to find it. which makes it easier for you to hire them. visit indeed.com/hire

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video reports earnings, and jon fortt interviews ceo jensen huang. a strategy chip demand plus post interview analysis a cnbc special report tomorrow, 7 p.m. eastern on cnbc. >> welcome back to fast money. shares of home depot getting a pop after the company just barely beat analyst expectations for the quarter. the home improvement retailer posting positive comp sales after eight straight quarters of declines but still offering weak guidance for growth in the coming year. the cfo telling cnbc this morning that housing is still frozen by high mortgage rates, but that he expects consumers will stop putting off big projects until rates fall. he said basically, they're going to come to the realization that those low rates are not going to come back, so they're going to just go ahead with their projects. >> this was an important quote, as you said. i mean, this this positive comp inflection. and is it that i think the street is still waiting to prove me and their outlook for, again, their full year on 24 at minus one means they're implying more housing headwinds here. i like the story. i like the story.

again, when you think of who their consumer is and at least the strength of that consumer, they're running their business. they've never been. i actually tried to return some stuff that was sitting in my garage for like a little over a year over the weekend. i had a receipt, i had a receipt, and they dinged me. they just kicked me to the door. i used to be able to take anything back to home depot. >> over a year. and were you trying to return nails. >> led hi hats and a couple grill covers? you know, i don't want to get too technical. >> with them. >> i mean. >> you're a scofflaw. >> i'm just. >> i'm not a scuff. >> i paid. >> for. >> the stuff i had. >> a year. >> later. >> i had a receipt. i might have been. >> using it for. >> a year, no matter what. whatever the runway. >> and then you. >> bring the dress back. >> whatever they give me in credit, i'm going to spend even more than that. dresses? what are you talking about? >> same type of thing. >> talking about lights and stuff. >> anyway, i love home depot. >> but. >> like what? i mean, rates coming down today. that doesn't necessarily hurt. >> yeah, it doesn't hurt. i mean, i think you guys were just talking about the really important point, which is that, you know, obviously the thing's

been under a lot of top line pressure. and, you know, seeing that 14% increase, you know, year on year for the quarter was was an important an important sign i think that things could be stabilizing. and i think that's really the way we should be looking at this. not that it's going to suddenly resume, you know, extraordinary growth. trading 25 times forward. so you know, the way i look at it, it's probably fairly valued here. it's not i'm not getting terribly excited about it. and tim, if you want to make some returns i think costco is the best, best place for that. >> yeah, i don't know. they don't have the power tools that i need. but i mean, you know, i'm i'm going to check that out. mike. thank you. >> speaking of power tools guy, where do. >> you shop? >> i mean. >> what is tim doing? >> what is tim doing with. >> power tools? >> this stuff was i go to. >> home depot. >> it was still in the package. >> package? you know. >> you're acting like there's some kind of a fraud. >> over a year, and you're bringing. >> back goods that haven't been opened. sometimes i just buy more than i need. and in this. >> world. >> you know. >> i'm a busy.

>> guy all the time. >> got a family? i mean, there's a lot going on. >> you've got many more things. >> i mean, if ken langone is what ken is a fan of the show. >> yeah. >> okay. no, but ken would. >> be on. top of that. >> no, he wouldn't. >> have taken it. >> back any, any time he wants. like two years later, ken, like. >> home depot. >> yeah. they're very loyal to their customers, to their professional community, and i am one of them. i'm not the professional community, but i am anyway. >> weekend news alert. >> let's get going. phil lebeau standing by with the details. phil. >> hey, melissa. take a. >> look. >> at shares of boeing. not doing a whole lot after hours announcement. just coming from the company that stephanie pope, who has held dual titles at the company, both as ceo as well as the head of boeing commercial airplanes, will be giving up the role of coo. she remains in charge of boeing commercial airplanes, and this is essentially ceo kelly ortberg doing what he probably should be doing, which is bringing in more leadership. coo and head of

boeing commercial airplanes. that's a lot for any one person to handle. well, that's what stephanie pope has been doing since really early, late early last year. now she will focus just on boeing commercial airplanes. kelly ortberg will now focus on bringing in a ceo. and that's the change at boeing, by the way. they are also reducing the size of their board by one member. one of the directors will be stepping down. those are the headlines from boeing after hours. melissa, back to you. >> all right. thank you filippo. coming up, the route continues the ten year yield hitting its lowest level since december. what's behind the decline? our own rick santelli in his legendary white board will join us to dig into the moves in the bond markets. don't go anywhere bond markets. don't go anywhere fast when ♪ empower ♪ so handsome. oh, i can't buy this. hang on there. actually, you can. your empower investment account has performed well. and this whole off-white-ish cantaloupe thingy is really working for you. so...

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yeah. yeah. i totally, totally understand. we're adding a ton of sensors. as soon as something comes in contact with the power line, it'll turn off so that there's not a risk that it's gonna fall to the ground and start a fire. okay. and i want you to be able to feel the improvements. we've been able to reduce wildfire risk from our equipment by over 90%. that's something i want to believe. [skateboard sounds] heading higher though up nearly 160 points. shares of starbucks higher today, the second best performer in the nasdaq 100, now up nearly 26% this year, trading at its highest level since may of 2023. shares of trump media dropping more than 7%, its worst day in nearly a month. and now in a seven day losing streak. djt down more than 40% since trump took office. crude oil

dropping more than 2% today, now below $70 a barrel and some after hours action. instacart dropping after profit forecasts came up short. caesars beating eps estimates but missing revenue expectations. intuit beating earnings and revenue expectations. meantime missing earnings estimates and lucid jumping after reporting better than expected earnings and revenues. the company also announcing its ceo will step down. well, the benchmark ten year treasury yield hitting its lowest level since mid-december as a slew of worries seemed to weigh on investors. the conference board's consumer confidence survey, seeing its largest monthly decline since 2021. the philly fed reporting its services index tumbled to the lowest in almost two years. and there's a promise of tariffs starting next week. cnbc on air editor rick santelli joins us now with the rate impact. rick how how much farther do you think the yields go on the ten year. >> you know it's always hard to catch that falling knife. but considering the momentum to the downside i wouldn't be surprised to see a violation of four and a

quarter down to maybe around 417 to 419. but i look at it a little different, i think. 417, 418, 419 is a good area. should we get down there to start establishing more of a short bias? but another way to look at it is over the next 3 to 4 weeks, i look for the high frequency yield to be traded to be around 4.35. so even though i think there could be more room to the upside and price, the downside and yield, i think we're getting close to an area where the consolidation is going to be at a slightly higher yield. now, what is really the dynamic here? and i think this is really important. treasury yields you know they're they're based on what's going on in the economy and safe haven. so it's kind of a versus. and we consider what's going on with the economy. we have to look at two areas. we need to three actually the balance sheet of the country debt and deficits. we need to look at prices inflation deflation. we need to look at growth. now growth is the one that i think is under review right now because nothing's really changed on the balance sheet. we talk about

tariffs but it certainly isn't showing up prices. you know ppi was hot cpi was hot. but what's moving the market. squishy numbers squishy numbers. uncertainty is the issue these days. and the confidence numbers are showing us some movement like i've never seen before. so what's that telling me? that's telling me that the uncertainty from growth, which is probably more temporary than permanent, is coming into the safe haven area. so it's all about shocks to the system, right? well not anymore. it's more about stocks. that's where the shock is coming in. so to me it's pretty easy. we're going to question growth. most of the data actually hasn't shown me a huge reversal in growth. uncertainty remains and everything is half empty with this administration because of that. and i get it. you know, whether it's regulation or energy, there's a lot of positives. the growth aspect based on the current administration. but this is going to continue to affect that. and today we did see a bit

of reversal. we saw green in the dow. but what we need is we need solid green. we need the nasdaq to join. and then that will change the treasury outlook dramatically. >> we got pce on friday as you know. how much of a monkey wrench can that throw into this whole thing rick. >> well, you know, it can throw a monkey wrench in, but honestly look at february 11th and 12th. cpi was hot. ppi wasn't that cool. it was on the warm side as well. but yet we hardly had a reaction. and to me, that's very telling. what i would consider is the most important area for viewers is to watch real time how the market moves and what it moves on. that's key. it didn't move on the work week shrinking in the last jobs report. now all of a sudden, that's a big talking point because many analysts are trying to match what's going on with the market in the fundamentals. but to me,

the things that have moved the market are squishy. we have university of michigan, we had conference board numbers. we had philly non fed squishy, squishy, squishy. we have quant numbers coming up. to answer your question, i don't think we're going to see a huge cooling in pce. but there's no doubt in my mind they'll probably be a little bit cooler than the cpi reads that we had not that many weeks ago. >> rick, i want to ask you about a note that i read today from bank of america saying that if the stock market if the s&p 500 specifically dropped roughly 6 or 7% or so, that they would expect trump to have fiscal intervention. and i'm wondering how the bond market would take that, if that would be a positive thing in terms of bolstering growth, or if that would be a negative thing in terms of fiscal irresponsibility. >> yeah. you know, i have a hard time dealing with the what if like that because i'm not sure what kind of fiscal intervention the president would have at this point. i think the administration must understand that uncertainty is just a code word for the process of change.

i think this administration has an idea where they're going, but the eggs they're going to break on the way. i think that's something we're just going to have to live with, and it's going to remain an unknown. i wouldn't think that the president should do something like that. i think that would accentuate some of the negatives more. but i think what he could do, obviously, is give us more information to reverse or at least ameliorate some of the uncertainty in the tariffs and some of the negatives of this administration with respect to what's making investors run from their stock position to take a new attitude, safe haven and capital preservation. >> rick, always great to see you. thank you. >> thank you. >> rick santelli, what do you think. rates go higher. >> but i've been wrong. i mean i was right for a while now. wrong i'm surprised they're down here. but i think rick's levels are probably right. so you know you have this now. you have this on friday. i think it's going to be market moving. we had actually a good auction today. i'm not

confident the auction is going to be that good going forward. i think rates go higher for the wrong reasons. >> coming up, tesla in a tailspin. shares down nearly 30% since the inauguration and now losing its spot in the trillion dollar club. one of our traders says the company could be overtaken in the ev fast lane. more on that when fast money returns. in a world of uncertainty and disruption, how will your investments stay resilient? we've been navigating change for 125 years, always looking forward, anticipating risks and trusted to manage over $1 trillion in assets worldwide. solving for the needs of investors today and tomorrow. investors today and tomorrow. that's the power is a bitcoin etf the same as owning bitcoin directly? while bitcoin etfs might offer a familiar face, they lack the true ownership and flexibility of directly investing in bitcoin. with itrustcapital you can buy and sell real bitcoin 24/ 7 with the tax advantages of an ira.

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>> we got to do. >> don't miss the cnbc premiere episode of shark tank tonight, 9:00 eastern. >> welcome back to fast money tesla sinking more than 8% for its worst day since october. weak european sales numbers giving way to deeper concerns that ceo elon musk's political activity could be turning off customers. the stock now back at its lowest level just since after the election. today's move taking the stock out of the trillion dollar club two, its market value now sitting at $974 billion, more than 500 billion off its mid-december peak. we talked about this in terms of, you know, germany for instance. europeans in particular not liking elon musk. >> well, it's interesting that this happens right after the election, right. and this basically, the election didn't go with the candidate that he was backing. and so when you think about just the price action today or really this week in general, the news about salee of weeks ago. right. so investors are basically hitting the sell button because i think they're looking at the fundamentals of this company. and if you've just been looking at their earnings reports over

the last two years, you could see the fundamentals have been deteriorating. and i think what happened in europe over the last few months or so is really a tell on just the competition. it's a tell on the consumers have other options right now. obviously what's going on in china, china with the tariffs and the trade war and all this. it's not going to benefit them. you know, so 50% of their sales come from here in the us. and ev market here seems pretty saturated when you look at california sales that they were down you know year over year. that's a great market. you know normally for evs i just think that the stock is right about ready to trade on its fundamentals again. and i cannot imagine this quarter coming up is going to be particularly good. and if you think about that change that they had that bitcoin accounting where they took a $600 million gain. that was like a quarter of the net income on a gaap basis in that quarter. that's how they made the number. if they have to actually change that and mark it down, what do you think that's going to do for their earnings in the quarter? >> mike, what do you think? >> yeah, i mean dan started hitting on a couple of the key

points. i mean the hockey stick for ev sales in north america and europe. i think where we were over that first bit of that, you know, this was a name that was always trading on its promise. and so if you start to see any, any signs of slowing sales, that's going to be obviously going to put some pressure on the stock. and of course, there is this specter, at least in asia, of competition from china. byd is a formidable foe. they did outsell tesla at times. and, you know, it's a much more compelling product on a price basis over there. and they have an advantage because they were formerly a battery company. and that's one of the biggest input costs. so you put all of those things together. and it is a difficult environment for sure. >> coming up, truly tipping the scales. eli lilly is upping the dosage but slashing the prices of its blockbuster weight loss drug and how it's impacting impacting the stock next. more impacting the stock next. more fast money in two. ♪ empower ♪ hey, i got her a little something.

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our xfinity network is built for streaming all the stuff people love. how can it get any better? -i'm just spitballin' here, but, what if we offer people apple tv+, netflix and peacock? for one low monthly price. -yes. so, people could stream the shows they love. and we could call it... xfinity streamsaver! mmmmm. what about something like: streamsaver? ooooooo. -i love that. add streamsaver with apple tv+, netflix and peacock included for only $15 a month... and stream all your favorite entertainment, all in one place. it. boss otter, you got this. >> welcome back to fast money. eli lilly jumping over 2% as it bulks up its direct to consumer weight loss offerings. the company announcing today it will start selling higher dose versions of bound in single use vials on its lilly direct

platform. the company also cutting the price of the lower dose vials that were already in the market by $50 each. if you take a look at the stock prices of novo versus eli lilly, they seem to be getting farther and farther apart as the year progresses here. novo is not participating in this sort of lower cost discounted version of their drug. >> no doubt. and you know, it's not too different than we're talking about compute in the ai space as the prices come down. you know, we're hearing about demand weakening before we saw, you know, some of these lilly direct deals and the like here. so i just think that this is a market that probably hasn't found its equilibrium. i think that you're going to continue to see demand kind of meet supply, especially at a lower price point. i think that's good for lilly. >> there's a lot we don't know in terms of the trajectory of sales here, too. i mean, there's one firm out, i think two weeks ago saying that there's probably an element of seasonality in demand. we've seen inventory issues with eli lilly in terms of not being able to predict sales properly. and we just don't know how this uptake remains. >> but i'm glad you brought up novo because that's one given the move. i mean, this one from 150 down to 90 just on valuation alone. i mean, you back out the

whole story. i think novo is really interesting here. i'm surprised lilly's rallied this extra $40 from that 725 bounce, but here it is. but i think novo is a play. >> i couldn't agree more. i mean, to me, i'm really surprised novo has been pushed out. we've even gotten data from them in the last month. i mean, we've had dynamics. i understand where they're maybe not in the same place with lilly in terms of oral, but they are still delivering a their more the bigger supplier to the world right now in terms of glp's. and i just think valuations somewhere around 20 times forward is pretty interesting. >> up next final trades. >> when you're the official vehicles. >> of winter, you can. embrace everything the. cold has. >> to offer. >> leave fresh tracks with the safe and secure jeep grand cherokee melt limitations with our most capable jeep wrangler. >> ever. >> or battle the elements and win in the jeep gladiator, hurry into the. >> jeep president's day sales. >> event before these incredible offers slip away. during the jeep president's day.

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spread collars to hedge in case they aren't. >> tim. >> i almost forgot about my final because we were talking about. roscoe the bedbug dog. honeywell. >> how about it, dan? >> yeah. zoom. i think it's getting to a good level at 70 or so. >> it's great to. >> have you back, melms. >> i'm going to celebrate. >> with a mcdonald's hamburger. >> all right. thanks for watching. fast mad money starts right now. >> my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market someere, and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey i'm cramer, welcome to mad money. welcome to cramerica. >> we make friends i'm just trying to make. >> a. little money. my job. >> is not just to teach and educate but also to entertain. so call me at one 807 43 cnbc. >> or tweet me jim cramer. >> the rebellion. >> against the data center continues. >> that's the dominant. >> theme. >> of this market. don't anyone tell you otherwise. >> the data. >>