and is. >> good morning, happy friday, and welcome to street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum, and these are your headlines. tariff fears hit european automakers for a second straight day as president trump pledges to hit chinese imports with additional levies, and beijing pledges countermeasures. >> ten plus ten. it's the second. >> ten, and i think you'll i. >> think you're. >> going to see eventually you're going to see drugs stopping because the. >> country should not be

allowing those drugs to come into. >> the united. >> states of america. >> global tech negativity hits the european semiconductor names. after a day which saw nvidia's market cap slump below the $3 trillion mark, president trump hails his white house meeting with uk prime minister keir starmer, revealing the two sides are making good progress on a trade deal. >> i think there is. >> a very good. >> chance that in. >> the case. >> of. >> these two great. >> friendly countries, i think we could very. >> well end. >> up. >> with a real trade deal. >> where the. >> tariffs wouldn't. >> be. >> necessary. >> and british airways owner iag launches a ■k71 billion buyback after a better than expected 27% jump. >> in. >> operating profit. in. today's top story, president trump has confirmed tariffs against mexico and canada will go into force as

planned on march. >> 4th. >> while also hitting china with an unexpected additional 10% levy. well. >> that was. >> enough to really rock markets. we saw a major dramatic sell off stateside yesterday, and that negativity is spilling into europe now. this morning you can see red across the board. the xetra dax down 6/10 of a percent. the cac40 over in france also down by about half a percent. the ftse mid. >> and the ftse 100. >> also trading in the red. >> and this follows a down. >> session yesterday which saw about a half a percent pullback for the main stoxx. >> 600 benchmark. >> and heavy selling in asia overnight. so it's. >> turned into somewhat. >> of a global story. let's take a look at the autos in particular. yesterday we saw very heavy selling in the auto space. and now this morning the selling continues. renault down about 1.4%. you got bmw down. >> a. >> further 1%. aston martin continues to sell off that. luxury auto name, down about 3.6%, as investors continue to price in the prospect of higher

or tariffs on eu goods into. >> the united states. >> european technology stocks. >> also getting hit hard today seems to be a. >> combination of concerns about the geopolitics. >> and what. >> may come. >> next on the. >> trade front between the us and china, and also those nvidia. >> earnings out of the us. >> now. >> about. >> 36 hours. >> ago, you. >> got asml shares down about 2.6%, asmi down 2.7. infineon and semiconductor. >> also trading. lower in terms of that us trade. here's a. >> look at. >> how wall street closed up. we saw. >> heavy selling in technology nasdaq leading the. >> losses down 2.8%. >> s&p dropped about. 1.6% and the dow jones lost. >> about a half a percent. >> so the. >> selling was really concentrated in those tech names. >> you saw seven out of. >> 11 sectors end the day down, but. technology down 3.8% within the s&p index, also heavy selling for the mag seven. it was the sixth consecutive decline for the magnificent seven. with the index now 14%

the december peak. so in correction. >> territory. now those. >> on your screen there, you've got nvidia. shares down 8.5% yesterday. >> that was the trade that we saw in that stock. but as. >> you can see it. >> spread to the broader technology space as. >> well and into. >> asia overnight. so here's a look at the asian semiconductors. you got pretty hefty losses. >> there as well. up to. >> 7% in the case of smic samsung. >> electronics down about 3.2%, sk hynix down 4.5. so really a broad based sell off in tech. >> now in terms of china's response to these new levies. floated by the trump administration, china's commerce ministry. >> says it will take all. >> necessary countermeasures to defend. >> its interests, accusing the us. >> of shifting the blame. >> and saying it. >> has one of the. >> strictest anti-drug policies in the world. >> now, i thought it was worthwhile. >> to take a look at. >> how markets have traded since. >> trump's inauguration. >> looking at there on your. >> screen, us. >> stocks. >> we are lower. >> and i think this is relevant. >> because we know. president trump keeps a close eye on

markets. >> and if markets become too concerned about some of his policies. it could trigger a change in policy stance. so something to bear in mind. also bitcoin. we talked yesterday at length with standard. >> chartered about. >> what's been going. >> on in crypto. >> we are seeing further selling in bitcoin down about 4.9% in the latest trading session, down about 25% since trump's inauguration. despite his promise. >> to end. >> quote, biden's war on crypto and bitcoin. tesla also an interesting name that has been underperforming since trump took office. and of course, since elon musk took his. seat in the administration or certainly adjacent to the administration, the stock is down more than 30% since the inauguration. >> a lot. >> of heavy selling coming on the back of those numbers showing that sales in europe are down 45% in the latest data. >> while ev. >> sales overall have. >> actually been higher. >> so tesla losing market share in europe. now in stark contrast, the stoxx 600. here in

europe has been performing well. we're up nearly 6%. and just as a comparison for you versus the s&p 500, the stoxx 600 has been strongly outperforming its us counterpart. so with all of that in mind, let's welcome to the program, chief multi-asset strategist at hsbc. max, great to have you this morning. >> good morning. thank you. >> let me kick off with the latest market action. and then perhaps we can move on to what's been going on between comparing the us with europe. what has driven the latest round of selling pressure. >> yeah i think. >> there's probably. >> some concerns. around ai, some. >> concerns around nvidia. we obviously have the volatility. >> around tariffs right. >> yes of course. >> but i guess. >> we're not. when i look now into the future. >> is that. >> really or is what we've seen. is that. really the beginning of sort of a 10%. correction in equities. >> i mean. >> to. >> be honest on. >> one on the. >> one hand. >> i kind of wish. >> it was. because you'd be like, okay. >> you can finally. >> there's finally a dip. >> that.

>> we can buy, right? >> because let's be honest, in the. >> last. >> two years. >> even last. >> year with. >> the carry. >> trade unwind that we had, it was sort of over in 2 or. >> 3 days. >> yeah. so you know. >> like my. >> fingers aren't. >> quick enough to be. >> writing buy the dip. >> and the dip is already gone. and but the problem is i guess the positioning. >> is just simply. >> not there. so even. >> in the last couple of. >> weeks. >> we've never really had in all of our data positioning. >> that was. >> super. >> super exuberant. >> so one thing. >> that clearly it was not. >> was exuberant. >> positioning, which actually going. forward is, is pretty encouraging. we look at some of the surveys yesterday. >> we've got. >> the are right and it. >> already is comfortably. >> below the first percentile over the last, i think 40 years or 45 years of history. >> which is crazy. >> you know, we're we're of course yeah. the s&p is off all of its. >> all time high. >> but we're a. couple or we're a handful percent off. its all time highs. you know high yield spreads have barely budged. >> it spreads have barely budged. >> and sentiment is already. so depressed particularly on the surveys. that just tells me going forward we're probably much closer to, again buying the dip territory rather than having a full blown correction.

>> so what is. >> buying the dip territory when you look at levels here, when would you be encouraging your clients to step in? when would you see the bottom? >> yeah. >> i mean we haven't. >> changed our stance. we we're still sort of medium overweight. equities even in the us. >> also in the in the eurozone. >> in e.m. in china. but really most overweight and. >> high yield. >> credit in emerging market credit. >> and emerging market rates. >> so it's really the carrier assets, the high beta carrier assets that we do like the most. because let's be honest. >> what we're seeing. >> right now is we are starting from a much higher level of yields. and spreads may be tight, but any kind of material weakening and spreads that we. might see or any kind of material spread widening, even like the last few days, that is then typically counteracted by a decline in yields. that's exactly what we've seen. if you look at total returns in high yield, whether that's euro high yield, dollar high yield, whether that's emerging market rates, whether it's emerging market credits. if you look at it the last four weeks, you have barely thought there's any volatility. you barely have thought there's you know

volatility around rates around magnificent seven around deep sea i trump tariffs. no you'd be like it's just a straight line upwards. and that to me at the moment is i think from an asset allocation perspective by far the best thing that really i'm still staying bullish and the most bullish on right now. >> let me just. >> come back to your point about positioning and your comment that, you know, you haven't been able to write fast enough to get in, buy the dip, because there have been so many equity investors who i think. >> were waiting. >> for a dip to get involved, but it just hasn't come. you know, in terms of positioning. what is the pain trade right now? >> i think the pain trade is probably still the white or sort of the broadening of the market. yes. but at the same time, i think it's very sort of consensus that consensus is long. the magnificent seven. right. whereas in reality we kind of know from the data that the magnificent seven are always sort of a forced underweight, particularly for the benchmark investors, because you simply cannot be long enough, you can't be overweight because of all sorts of constraints, right? risk management constraints,

concentration risk and all that. so to me, even the magnificent seven, right. like, i mean, let's be honest, four of the seven have really been hammered since earnings since since mid january. and you know, you're trading let's say if we take tesla out because tesla may be might be trading on some other kind of different drivers. >> other things in. >> there, other things. so whereas if we take that out, you know, you're trading at sort of 26.5 times earnings. that's not that's not outrageously crazy. right? we're talking about about nvidia now the last few days as if, you know, revenue growth has been slowing from triple digits down to like 10%. and you're like, oh is it going to be 60 or 70? i mean, come on. >> yeah. >> we're still talking about 70% margins. >> so it's still it's still a really a ridiculously high growth environment for some or for most of those names, which to me, i think, yes, the broadening is probably the pain trade, but even the mag seven, i think we really, really shouldn't dismiss them and be like, oh yeah, you've got to go completely away from tech, completely away from mag seven and only play the broadening. >> okay. and what about.

>> europe versus the us when we just were showing the chart that compares the stoxx 600 to the s&p. but you can look at it, you know, a range of metrics and see that europe has been outperforming year to date. do you like europe and do you think there is more room to close that valuation gap with the us? >> i think there is. tactically i do like the eurozone. i don't like europe overall, so we're sort of only neutral on the uk, but we really, really like the eurozone. but we really like sort of the foreign revenue exposed names. right. so the names that are exporting most to the us, generating most of the revenue in the us or from foreign sources overall. >> even with the. >> tariff threat, even with the tariffs, because the thing is, like what's really, really important for the eurozone is look at german equities, german equities. the dax derives less than 20% of its revenues from germany. right. i wish things like sap and you know, siemens energy. they'd have to do something with german gdp. it would mean that germany has a prosperous ai industry, but it does derive most of its revenues outside of even europe. right?

not even germany, but even europe. it derives it mostly from dollar based revenues. and even the asset base is mostly in dollar terms. so what really matters for them is the weaker euro. so the weaker euro compared to what we where we were three, six, 12 months ago, it's really important for those earnings. so that's that's where you know i think the value still lies for the eurozone. it's not in the small and mid caps. i don't buy into the oh you know germany and the eurozone is going to be so much better in terms of fundamentals in terms of growth. and this is a 612 month trade i think it's a it's a short term trade. when we look at the small and small versus large caps look, the small caps are up around about 5% year to date. the large caps are up ten right. if it was about domestic europe it'd be the other way around. right. so to me it's the weaker euro. it's about a broadening of i trade what we just talked about right. that pain trade of broadening i trade not just the nvidias and the tsmc's, but it's a broadening of the i trade. and that is where the eurozone can benefit as well. and it's about the weaker

euro. >> interesting. we don't usually talk about europe as a key beneficiary of that. i trade lastly, in terms of what you don't like in the market, your largest underweight energy. what's the thesis there? >> look, i think positioning is actually much, much more sort of benign compared to where we were in the summer last year, summer last year we had it for the first time. brant positioning was net short. it was sort of neutral now. right. so despite what has happened over the last 3 or 4 weeks, that that bit of downturn that we had in oil prices, it's still sort of neutral. and the uptick that we've seen at the end of december, beginning of january was mostly really led by the front end. it was cold weather in the us. i don't think we i don't think you need a strategist to tell you, look, it's going to get warm eventually. so, you know, you had this inventory squeeze as well that drove the front end up, but it didn't really have an effect on sort of 6 or 12 month futures. so that's probably going to come down as well positioning a lot more sort of benign compared to where we were in summer last year. and then of course from a supply side, it's just much more ample compared to

what we thought 12, 24 months ago. it's not like the underweight energy core is not about global demand is going to weaken and manufacturing is going to roll over again and demand is. so no, it is the fact that supply is just so, so, so ample and it's across the board. it's whether you look at the us it looks opec plus. but it's also you know you look iran, you look iraq, you look venezuela. you look at the us. it's across the board where supply is just extremely ample. and that really constrains i think the ability for opec+ to act. and that means yeah oil brant 70 low six high 60. so another sort of five 6% downside is probably doable. >> okay. >> well max appreciate your views. max kettner, chief multi-asset strategist at hsbc. coming up on street signs, european companies deliver a mixed set of results to cap off an earnings dominated week. we'll hear. >> from. the ceo. >> of german firm. >> allianz after this break.

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any other morning. >> show. >> but you might get some useful information. >> squawk box weekday mornings, 6 a.m. eastern. cnbc. >> some earners were keeping an eye on today. british airways owner iag beat on annual earnings expectations, posting a 27% increase in full year operating profit. operating profit. meanwhile, at holcim rose 4.4% in the fourth quarter, above expectations. the building materials company also said it filed to spin off its north american business. shares up 3.3%. shares of swiss chemicals maker clariant are under some pretty heavy selling pressure this morning, after the company said it expects modest growth in 2025, despite posting a better than expected core profit in the fourth quarter. also under pressure, basf in the chemical space, the company says it expects to see profit growth of more than 6% this year as it targets cost cutting measures in europe. it's actually now crossing into positive territory. it's up a quarter of a percent on the day, and

pearson posted 600 million pounds in annual adjusted operating profit, up 10% on the year. and at the top of its guidance range, allianz reported a 15% increase in fourth quarter net profit, boosted by its property and casualty divisions. the german group also cited an increase in its health and life insurance unit. allianz said it now expects operating profit of up to ■k717 billion in 2025. oliver betta, ceo of allianz, joins me now. oliver, great to have you on the program and great to talk to you. after what looks like another strong set of numbers, it's been quite a year for your stock for the company. walk us through what what the quarter has been like. >> we had the thank. >> you, first. >> of all for having me this morning. good morning from munich. we've had the strongest fourth quarter ever in the history of allianz and almost any dimension revenues, operating profit, net income, return on capital. >> so we're very. >> very proud. >> however.

>> most importantly is that we have made progress in. >> growing our customer. >> base, which is the most important thing because our industry is not typically ripe with growth, but it shows that the global diversification of our footprint is really working. the diversification between the various businesses, property casualty, life insurance and asset management is really working. look at the particularly strong earnings in life insurance. many of our competitors have left the industry abandoned it. we're doing really, really well. so that has been propelling us recently, and we expect that to continue. >> over the. >> next three years. >> can you give us a little bit more color as to what's happening in the life insurance business? it sounds like you're taking market share. is there anything else to flag in terms of what's driven that strength? >> the first thing is we literally started ten years ago to completely redo our product base, to make it better for consumers in terms of crediting rates, but but also taking risk out of the tail. so make it more attractive. >> for our shareholders. >> our new business margin today

is about twice the level it was ten years ago, and new business value has more than tripled. so it's really, really strong because the need for retirement income has never been higher than today. so consumers felt abandoned. and we're just basically filling a gap. >> the i think the other piece that's really captured investors attention today was last night's announcement to run share buyback up to ■k72 billion. can you elaborate on the rationale behind the decision to return cash to shareholders? >> yeah. >> so one. >> as a reminder. we have. >> moved last year to a 60% payout ratio. so we already have one of the biggest dividend payers in the world. and that's very important with an aging population, the reliability of dividend income coming is one of the cornerstones of allianz's capital management policy. but our earnings are so strong and the cash generation is so strong. and the for us, the desire to earn a very high return on capital is so strong

that we are in the position to return 2 billion on top of the very strong dividend to our shareholders. >> and how do you prioritize between share buybacks, dividends and m&a? >> it's totally clear we have no interest to hoard excess capital. therefore having a dividend policy that is amongst the strongest in the industry globally and beyond, by the way, is the foundation. so 60% payout is very strong. look at the proposed dividend is one of the highest that exists. share buyback is the second order effect where we want to make sure that we support the return on invested capital and eps growth over the next few years, which also has substantially grown. and then m&a is a third priority. and let me explain to you why we are growing so strongly, organically these days, that actually the need to propel growth with m&a, that's often expensive, that comes with a lot of execution risk is less

of a priority as we speak. >> very clear, very clear there. let me ask you about asset management. another pillar of strength in your earnings today you saw strong net inflows. give us a bit of color on what's going on in terms of the inflows. >> both asset management companies of allianz, pimco and agi had a very strong year. in particular, pimco has really outperformed its industry. we're very proud of the colleagues in newport beach. their market share in net inflows has never been higher. and the performance for customers, which is the most important thing, has never been stronger. so we're looking forward to increasing earnings growth into the future. it's very important that we understand in times where people lose trust in institutions, into politics, into global states. in many things, people turn their attention to the institutions that they trust. and allianz is one of them. so we are looking across the board, but especially in asset management into

sustainable growth in earnings. >> oliver, there has been some analysts commentary out this morning that whilst the numbers were very strong, that the guidance has underwhelmed a little bit. you've got 2025 outlook targeting an operating profit of ■k716 billion. is that conservative? can you give some comfort to the community? that might be a little bit disappointed by that guidance? >> yeah, we you know, we are an insurance company by birth. so we are by design conservative because we have to be there when nobody else performs. we need to be the rock. it's very important and we will remain conservative. that doesn't mean we're not optimistic, but we would lose a lot of trust if we were over optimistic. so you can assume that we've been prudent, as i would say, that with our outlook in terms of the underlying dynamics, in terms of revenue growth, profit growth and others, we are optimistic, but we need to acknowledge we're in

a world that has ongoing wars in the middle east and ukraine. we have political leadership that's struggling to basically put the houses in order. that's not just in europe, but it's almost everywhere. so we need to be realistic about the environment that we're operating in. >> well, on that front, how are you feeling about the outlook for germany given the election result? we've got cdu kicking off coalition talks with the spd now, at the same time that the trump administration has just been hammering down his, his his concerns about europe and laying the groundwork for a very confrontational few months ahead with the european union. >> yeah, we've had the movie before. right. so it should for people that have a little bit of experience, that should be nothing new. we just have to do focus on ourselves and our homework. and i think that commentary is totally correct. now to your concrete questions. let's not forget allianz knows

and is residing in a country that's the only triple a country in the g7 just to put the facts in. so in terms of resilience, germany is one of the strongest countries in the world. it has one of the best and most educated workforces. it has very strong industry. we face a lot of headwinds, but we are starting to face them from a position of strength, and that's something that people need to be aware of. and you see that in the earnings and the resilience of germany's top companies. sap, siemens, we've you've talked about it in the session before. also super strong because we are diversified globally. now with regards to the government, it's very important that it's formed fast and it's starts to address some of the fundamental issues that we have that have something related to the fact of competitiveness. we need to fix our infrastructure. the education system needs an overhaul. so these things are totally clear. they have to be done. so the thing to watch is are we moving from talk to action is one thing that we

would be worried about. without getting into specifics now. >> oliver, appreciate your your thoughts on on the german outlook as well as your detail around the numbers today. oliver, the ceo of allianz. now we've had a slew of german state inflation data out this morning. let's take a look at the numbers. inflation in germany's most populous state, the north rhine westphalia, accelerated to 0.4% on a monthly basis but cooled off annually. meanwhile, inflation in bavaria and saxony declined on an annual basis to 2.4% in 2.3%, respectively. as we were just discussing with the allianz ceo, germany's conservative cdu csu bloc is reportedly set to begin exploratory coalition talks with the spd today. that's according to multiple outlets. the talks will reportedly be led by the cdu leader and germany's likely next chancellor, friedrich merz, and spd chair lars klingbeil. and mark a step towards the formation of germany's next

government after no party won that outright majority in sunday's election. several uk banks, including lloyds, banco sabadell owned tsb and nationwide have been hit by online issues, leaving many customers unable to access their funds, nationwide said some incoming and outgoing payments are delayed, with lloyds confirming they are working to have things back to normal soon. fairly muted reaction in terms of the stocks right now, as the banks work to sort out what's been going on now. still ahead on the program, uk prime minister keir starmer gets on the donald's good side on his trip to washington. we'll bring you the details of that trip next. do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate

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>> welcome back to street signs i'm julianna tatelbaum and these are your headlines. tariff fears hit european auto makers for a second straight day as president trump pledges to hit chinese imports with additional levies. and beijing pledges countermeasures. >> ten plus ten. >> it's a. >> second ten. and i think you'll i think you're going to see eventually you're going. >> to see drugs. >> stopping because the. >> country should not be allowing those drugs to come. >> into the. >> united states. >> of america. >> global tech negativity hits the european semiconductor names. after a day which saw nvidia's market cap slumped below the $3 trillion mark. and president trump hails his white house meeting with uk prime minister keir starmer, revealing the two sides are making good progress on a trade deal. >> i think. >> there's a. >> very good chance that in the case of these two. >> great. >> friendly countries, i think we. >> could very well. >> end up with a real trade

deal. where the tariffs wouldn't be necessary. >> and british airways owner iag launches a ■k71 billion buyback after a better than expected 27% jump in operating profit. european stocks are trading on the back foot this morning after the heavy selling on wall street yesterday, and the weakness in asia overnight as investors reacted to president trump saying he is planning to go ahead with those tariffs on mexico and canada. and he's going to slap 10% more on chinese goods. so the tariff front, on the tariff front, things have taken a turn for the worse. now european autos excuse me, european markets from a regional perspective. here's the look. you've got xetra dax down 4/10 of a percent. the cac40 down about 4/10 as well. footsie 100 and the footsie also trading lower. it is the auto sector that continues to be a focus of

the selling. yesterday we saw underperformance in european autos after president trump had those pretty sharp pointed comments about europe in particular, saying that europe, the eu, was essentially formed to screw the united states and that he planned to put 25% tariffs on european autos and other goods. so a little bit of spillover from that perhaps this morning. renault down a further 1%, mercedes down half a percent, bmw trading now just below the flat line. so we have seen a floor under the selling so far this morning anyway. european tech stocks are also getting hit hard, perhaps caught up in nvidia. and the heavy selling we saw on wall street yesterday. in technology you've got asmi shares down 2.6% right now. asml down more than 2%. so pretty heavy selling in the tech space. as for u.s. futures now interestingly we are seeing investors step in to buy the dip. we got the dow looking to open about 100 points higher. the tech heavy nasdaq, which dropped 2.8% yesterday, is also looking at a stronger start to

trade today. but again, this is after the nasdaq recorded its worst day in january. heavy selling in the mag seven yesterday. the index now in correction territory off 14% from its december peak. now, in terms of geopolitics, british officials say the us and uk are working toward a phased economic and tech agreement following a meeting between prime minister keir starmer and president donald trump in washington, in a move that could see britain avoid tariffs like the 25% levies due to hit canada and mexico next week. starmer said a potential deal would focus on ai and other advanced tech, saying the uk will, quote, seize the opportunity it offers rather than, quote, overregulating it. starmer also presented the us leader with an invitation for what he called an unprecedented second state visit, signed by the king, with trump hailing starmer's negotiating skills. >> he earned whatever. >> the hell they pay him. >> over there. >> but he tried. >> we i think there's. >> a very good chance that in

the case of these two great, friendly countries, i think we could very well end up with a real trade deal where the tariffs wouldn't be necessary. we'll see. but he, he earned whatever they. >> whatever they pay him. >> he earned today. he was working hard at lunch. >> and i'm. >> very receptive to it. i think we in all fairness, in all seriousness, i think we have a very good chance of arriving at a very good deal. >> nbc news's lester holt spoke to the prime minister after that meeting. take a listen. >> president trump and british prime. >> minister keir starmer. reaffirming the country's enduring. >> special relationship in. >> a moment of real danger around the world. >> the relationship this relationship. >> matters more. >> than ever. >> a high stakes meeting as talks start to. >> end the. >> war in ukraine. >> president trump saying he's confident any deal with russia's. >> president putin. >> will last. >> i don't. >> believe he's going to violate

his word. >> you know, it's. >> trust and verify. let's call it that. >> and he. >> was asked. >> can he get back ukrainian. >> territory that. >> russia seized? >> a lot of the sea. >> lion. >> has been taken. >> we're going to see. >> if we can. >> get it. >> back or get a lot of it back for ukraine, if that's possible. >> president trump saying. >> ukraine's president zelensky will come to the white house. tomorrow to sign a deal giving the u.s. >> access to ukraine's rare earth. minerals to pay back. >> the u.s. for billions of. >> dollars in. >> aid to ukraine. >> and the president was pressed about his previous comments, calling zelensky a dictator. >> saying that mr. >> zelensky is dictator. >> did i say that? >> i can't believe i said that. >> next question. >> hello, prime. >> minister. >> how are you? we spoke with. >> the prime. minister moments. >> after that. >> white house meeting. if i understand president. >> trump correctly. >> he says, let's do a peace deal. >> regarding ukraine first and then come back and visit. >> the area. >> of security guarantees. that

doesn't sound like what you. came here to tell him. >> well. >> let me. >> first start by. >> saying that. president trump has. >> changed the. >> conversation on ukraine. >> and so it's. >> created this opportunity. >> and we all. >> hope that that deal is forthcoming. what's most. >> important. >> i think, is that it's a. >> lasting deal. that it's. >> not just a temporary pause. and to be lasting, it's. important that the deal is defended. >> that putin knows. >> he can't go again. and that's why i've been concerned. >> to ensure. >> that on the european. >> side. all countries. >> including the. >> united kingdom, step up. >> and i've said that we are. >> willing to play. >> our full part in any. >> security guarantees. >> and obviously. >> talking to. >> the president. >> about what that might look. >> like. >> you said in a news conference today that you're all in, that you're ready. >> to go to put. >> boots on. >> the ground. >> what's your larger message about what the u.k. >> is willing to do in. >> advance. forward in the name of peace?

>> the first element. is a wider argument, which is that europe. >> and the. >> united kingdom need to do more in our own defense. and that's why this. week i announced the biggest. >> sustained increase. >> in defense. >> spending since. >> the cold war. that's the macro argument about the defense of the. >> continent in. >> relation to ukraine. i do think. >> that it's important that european. >> countries play a leading part in any security guarantees. and that's why i've said that the uk would put. >> boots on the ground. >> if necessary. >> the president. >> speaks positively. >> of russia. >> of vladimir putin. >> he's the one that ultimately he'll have to. negotiate with. do you trust vladimir putin. >> as a. >> good faith? bargainer? >> well. >> look, i think. >> president trump is quite right. to have brought. these proceedings to talks because we've had three long years now. there have been many, many, many people killed and injured in

this. i was in kyiv just a few weeks ago, and i was in the burns unit of a hospital. i saw firsthand the human scars that those on the front line and actually civilians are bearing. so we need. this peace. my concern. is that we know. historically that putin might go again. >> it sounds like you. >> don't trust him. >> well, look, i. >> mean, i. >> think that he has ambitions. i think he will go again. and i've made my views on president putin pretty clear on a number of occasions. >> fascinating interview there with keir starmer. now, in terms of markets, oil prices spiked yesterday following a report from reuters that opec is mulling whether to continue with april's planned output hike from amid uncertainty from tariffs and new sanctions on iran, venezuela and russia. meanwhile, gold prices are slightly weaker today after hitting their lowest level in ten days. the precious metal is also on track to post its biggest weekly drop since november, due to a stronger

dollar. let's take a look at us futures. after the heavy selling that we saw yesterday, we are now in store for a rebound today as investors turn their attention to the us pce data. we've got that inflation print due later today. the core reading is seen ticking down to 2.6% on an annualized basis, with the month on month core inflation figure expected to rise narrowly to 0.3%. ben simmons, founder of fed watch advisors, joins me now. ben, it's great to have you with us this morning. we've got this new inflation print due out later this afternoon. and inflation seems to be one of the drivers of the market downturn we've seen recently concerns renewed concerns around an uptick in inflation. what is your view. are you concerned about a problematically problematic upside risk to inflation. on the back of these new tariff threats from the us? >> i think one.

>> of the things. >> that we're currently seeing. in surveys, to an. >> extent, playing out. >> in markets, is. >> the expectation of inflation. that's really changed. and because consumers. do react to these. >> tariffs and start. initially buying a lot. >> of goods upfront. it's given the economy a boost. >> as a result of that boost, you do get already by itself. >> price pressures. >> now we've seen. >> other price pressures emerge, like in for example, x which may be a one off because of specific reasons like the bird flu. but that does. >> filter through expectations. >> you know, it's a basic good. >> so if. >> you then on top of. >> it going to get tariffs, at least for a period of time, then people. anticipate inflation will. >> be, you know. potentially significantly higher for several months. >> and if that's the case then it could set in motion a sort of self-fulfilling idea of like. >> people. expect more. >> inflation, inflation goes up and then more inflation is expected. and i think that's the risk here at. >> this moment. >> we're still waiting for these trade deals actually to go through. >> without tariffs. you know that they as president.

>> trump himself. >> indicated if you get a good deal we don't need theirs. >> i think that's also the end game. >> but there's a lot of uncertainty about it. >> so i. >> think. >> people will. >> continue to expect higher inflation. and that should put some. >> pressure on inflation near terms. i expect this pce data today may even be a little bit hotter too, because. >> the gdp data. >> today, it showed it was actually hotter. >> as it did with cpi. >> so i think the following cpi reports will. reflect their effects therefore. >> somewhat higher inflation. >> to what extent do you think higher inflation prints and a negative market reaction might influence trump policy? could we see a softening in president trump's stance toward tariffs? if we see those two factors materialize? >> i don't. >> believe that's actually the case because. >> although they know that inflation. >> may be affected and their view is about the there's also a way to incentivize domestic production or at least goods being reproduced here or another way exported in that are lower,

lower cost. so in other words, in their mind the impact on inflation may. >> be very. >> limited, even though the markets expect the inflation to go higher. and if you do get this drawdown in the markets like we've seen, for example, in 2018 it will be put on the federal reserve very likely, whether there's going to be more pressure on lowering rates to solve the equity market volatility. so i think they're not going to be dissuaded too quickly here about some volatility and higher inflation unless it gets completely out of control. but i think in their mind they're playing the strategy that they are going to be succeeding with. you're going to get new trade deals with ultimately tariffs being lower not higher. >> ben it's so interesting to hear you, you know, play out that narrative that we could end up with the trump administration putting more pressure on the fed to cut rates, because my question was going to be, could we actually see the fed forced to raise rates, not lower them in response to inflation? so if we end up in a scenario where, you know, inflation is higher, the market is reacting

negatively to that, and the trump administration is putting on pressure on the fed to cut, you know, what does that where does that leave us. >> that's a really difficult situation. >> i think. >> this is where markets are nervous about. that's the basically a stagflationary outcome, so to speak. meaning the fed has to reverse course to tightening because of the risk of inflation accelerating, while economic growth is getting weakened by the stock market. that's declining. and that's going to cause, you know, volatility and confidence issues may even spill over to employment. and that that combination makes it really difficult what to do. but ultimately the federal reserve has to control prices to mandate it to keep price stability. and there are now four numbers that are indicating that if inflation doesn't cooperate, they have to reverse course. that's already a lot of people, i think, in one one committee. so i think it's going to be tense in that way that the fed is going to be at the position. we can't cut, but we have to reverse course. and

that would be the negative outcome for markets. >> ben, let me ask you finally about gold. it's been a fascinating commodity to watch over the last few months. do you think gold still stands as an attractive inflation hedge? if you want a position to try to get some security against some of these these downside scenarios playing out. >> it's an incredible run, as you say. and i think you said in the opening segment that it's now the biggest weekly loss since november. it's going to be noted off because since november, since the election. gold has been up quite a bit. so there may be somewhat like, you know, change in sentiment around gold of like, where is this tariff war really going? could we end up with no tariffs? therefore gold will lose some of its shine. i do think in the bigger scheme of things, it is actually what i call the gold. smells like the dollar smell. it appreciates on an uncertainty that it also appreciates because of anticipation of inflation or higher growth. and i think that

is this is where gold will continue to be, i think, in a better position to outperform, say, relative to other commodities, because it is this type of environment. we have uncertainty and we have risk of inflation. i think gold will do really well in that environment. >> all right, ben, great to get your insight. ben simmons founder, fed watch advisors we are going to squeeze in a short break before that though. take a look at european markets. we have seen a flaw in the selling but in the red nevertheless following the broad based selling on wall street yesterday and overnight in asia led by a downturn in tech. the dax off 4/10 of a percent u.s. futures though they're in the green. we're looking at a positive start to trade on wall street. a rebound after the brutal selling rebound after the brutal selling yesterday. (man) robinhood gold members get an ira transfer boost of 2%. when you transfer in an ira or old 401(k) by april 30th,

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swivel my hips and i go down to the ground. >> a cnbc exclusive chicago fed president austan goolsbee reaction to the highly anticipated inflation report. plus impact on fed policy. john fort. morgan brennan closing bell over time today for eastern. cnbc.

>> as we approach the end of the show, here are four things to get you up to speed ahead of the open on wall street. all eyes are on the performance of the us markets, as major indices. look to shake off a tech and tariff driven sell off. we'll get the fed's preferred inflation gauge with pce figures due later today. our us colleagues then will be speaking to exclusively to chicago fed president austan goolsbee. donald trump is set to host ukrainian president volodymyr zelensky at the white house to sign a deal on critical minerals. now back here in europe, we're keeping an eye on sango ban. shares are trading higher after the firm's full year operating income came in line with analysts expectations. amid a turbulent macro environment. the french construction materials group says it expects its operating margin to come in above 11% this year, slightly up on the number it predicted in its 2021 to 2025 strategic plan. this, as the firm faces blacklisting by the uk government after it was named in the probe into the grenfell

tower tragedy. schroeder, and cfo of saint-gobain joins me now. schroeder, great to speak with you once again. always a pleasure to have you on the back of earnings. describe your performance across key markets. the markets this morning like seem to like what they see. >> oh i'm glad. >> to be. >> back here. good morning to all. >> of you. >> it's i'm very. >> happy that the market has responded. positively to the result that we have published. you have seen that we have demonstrated again. >> another new record in every single financial. >> indicators. >> and actually, it just reflects the. >> the strong and radical transformation. >> that the group has done in the last six years, where the. >> group is now repositioned. >> itself as a group. >> which is creating value, generating cash and profitable and consistently profitable even in a difficult. market environment. and that demonstrates. >> its ability. >> to deliver. >> results in. >> a resilient manner. so when you look. >> at the way we have.

>> made progress is primarily if. >> you. >> look at it, all that allocation of capital that we have done towards the growing economy like north america, emerging countries. i think it's clearly delivering results. >> we have this organization by country, which is enabling. >> us. >> to be. >> very quick in responding to the market. situation and trying to bring consistently more and more adapted solutions. >> to the customer. >> you know. >> is very. >> focused on trying. >> to provide. >> light and sustainable construction solutions. we are a market leader in this space and we are making. >> a huge positive impact. >> let me ask you about europe, which continues to be a difficult market. you know, obviously the investment community, well aware of the challenges that you faced here. sales down 6% over the year, but it looks like you are seeing some signs of improvement. have we seen the bottom when it comes to performance in europe? >> yes. >> so i. >> think we made a again you see that sequentially we are making a good progress. so the numbers are sequential improvement

consistently. quarter after quarter. all the countries have actually touched the trough including france. i think that's again a very. positive sign for us. and this is primarily because of two reasons. one is, okay, the new construction has suffered a lot. i think now it's bottomed out. the second is the market like renovation where is very strong. 60% of our sales in europe. is renovation dependent. so and we are the market leader, we are the one who. provides a comprehensive solution to the renovation market. so we are doing a good job in renovation and consistently gaining market share. so that's again bringing the strength to the market and able to differentiate ourselves as compared to what the competition is doing. and i'm pretty excited about the as the year unfolds. it's true that the first half would still have some comparison basis, but clearly we expect that it should continue. this momentum of sequential improvement should continue. >> i think this may be one of the last times i speak to you as cfo, because you will be

stepping away from this role into a new one, ceo of the apac business. i think the investment community is sad to see you go at the this level, but very keen to see what you're going to do in apac. talk to us about what you see as the key opportunities here and what pulled you over there. when i think that the market thought, you're doing a really great job in the cfo role. >> thank you karen. you know, for me, it's a fantastic, exciting time because i'm super thrilled about getting back to the operational role. i've always been in operations. i love to be on the ground closer to the customer. even as a cfo, i spend a large part of my time spending on the ground. so i'm looking forward to this whole new position because, you know, asia is a booming region in there has actually a very enviable market position because if you see today, the market is dependent on the population growth, and that's where

singapore provides the solutions. and we are making a significant impact by shaping the market, introducing a lot of value added solutions, educating the market on why sustainability is important and setting the tone in the market. today. we are the undisputed market leader in a country like india. you know, india is the third largest contributor to the profits of the group 25, 25 years back. singapore didn't exist in india. so that's a stark difference. and the journey that we have gone through in the last two and a half decades. then you have asia pacific, particularly the csr. we have acquired this recently in in july, we got this company into our folds. fantastic team. each time i go, i come back with an excitement that there is a team, there is a market and people know how to serve that market in a very comprehensive and a differentiated manner. so there are a lot can be done and i'm super excited. i think there is a lot to deliver in the future. >> just final question to you

around the grenfell inquiry. sangobion is one of seven companies being investigated facing the prospect of being blacklisted by the uk. depending on the findings, can you comment? >> it's a very unfortunate thing, you know that i have always said it. as a responsible corporate citizen, we will do all the right thing in terms of collaborating. but again, this is not new. this is a law which has come up in effective from february. okay. they are just getting back to again the process of administrative process as far as position is concerned. you know that whatever products we have sold in a limited way, it's all safe tested n number of times. so i remain very confident to, you know, go through this process. i mean, again, this is part of our responsibility to collaborate and cooperate with all the different stakeholders. so we will do that. and i remain very confident that singapore would come out very clean, because that's all the data clearly demonstrates that. >> sridar, i appreciate your

time today. shredder and cfo at sangobion. let's take a final look at european equity markets this morning after the heavy selling on wall street yesterday. you've now got the ftse 100 crossing into positive territory. so things have taken a turn for the better here in europe, perhaps because we are seeing positive start to trade indicated by us futures. now it is the last day of february, the first full month of donald trump's second term. and it's, i think, worth just looking back at how the month has been for european equities, which have outperformed their us counterparts for the month. the xetra dax up 3.5%. the right out in front. the footsie in italy has also performed very well, up 5.8% month to date. in germany, a lot of that strength has come from defense stocks. so here we are. we are looking at. ryan mattel up about 30%. you've got some serious moves higher across the defense space systems up 14%

leonardo up about 30%. you've got rank as well. hensoldt not pictured there. but they have also been really extraordinary performers, has driven some of that outperformance in europe versus the united states. now turning to wall street in focus today. we've got that pce data coming out, which is certainly going to capture investor investors attention. green across the board. the signal is positive coming out of wall street after the nasdaq posted its worst day since january. yesterday on a programing note, we will hear from the chicago fed president, austan goolsbee, later today. don't miss that exclusive conversation at 9:30 p.m. london time. but that is it from us. i'm julianna tannenbaum. this has been street signs. worldwide exchange is up next. >> anybody who owns property. >> should worry. >> about home title theft. >> there's no other crime. >> that is so easy, so quick and. >> so lucrative. >> your home. >> your equity, and your peace

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