almost on a daily, if not hourly basis anymore. >> john, thanks. thanks for joining us today. we appreciate it. john kilduff with again capital. >> so again we're seeing below $70 per barrel for us benchmark crude prices for the sixth straight week. we're down longest weekly losing streak in more than a year. so keep an eye on that as we head towards the closing bell. >> guys. dom, thanks for joining us today. and we'll do rare disease day on another day. closing bell starts right now. >> and welcome to closing. >> bell i'm scott wapner live. >> from post nine here at the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with the markets on edge. >> those extraordinary events in the oval office earlier today. that highly charged meeting between president trump, vice president pence, ukrainian president zelensky. at one point, the president telling the leader of ukraine, quote, you don't have the cards right now. you're gambling with world war three. we will have a special report from the white house in just a moment. but that exchange sending stocks lower as it all unfolded, we've reversed a bit now and we will talk about it. but that planned news conference

between the two leaders abruptly canceled, all of it coming at a time when the markets are already unsettled because of fears of a slowdown in the u.s. economy. in fact, the atlanta fed's gdp now reports suggesting today that growth for the first quarter could be negative for the first time in years. we'll talk to the wharton school's jeremy siegel about that and the markets in just a moment. we do first want to go to eamon javers at the white house with more on the day's truly extraordinary events, which everybody is still trying to get their arms around. eamon. >> scott. it's not clear where this relationship is going to go after this incident between the united states and russia. the united states and ukraine today here at the white house, i can tell you that the day began with a sense that there might be a deal between the united states and ukraine over minerals and rare earths in ukraine. also, i can tell you that it began to feel, as the morning went on, that there was something going on behind the scenes here, because there was no ability of white house officials earlier in the day to confirm any of the

terms of that deal. we saw scott and the treasury secretary come out yesterday and say that that deal was done, but no one here at the building would confirm any of the specific details in the deal, any of the terms of the deal, even what the deal would cover in terms of whether it's oil and gas, lng, minerals, all those kinds of basic details. none of that was forthcoming in advance of the meeting. then we got to this extraordinary moment in the oval office, where it was just a diplomatic meltdown between donald trump and vladimir zelensky over a question. really, the central question here was whether or not zelensky has been grateful enough to the united states and was respectful enough to donald trump, in donald trump's view, in that oval office session. here's how it all played out. >> during the war. everybody has problems, even you. but you have nice ocean and don't feel now, but you will feel it in the future. >> god bless you. >> god bless you. god bless you. >> you don't tell us what we're

going to feel. we're trying to solve a problem. don't tell us what we're going to feel. >> i'm not telling you. >> because you're in no position to dictate that. >> remember. >> you're in no position to dictate what we're going to feel. we're going to feel very good. we're going to feel very good and very strong influence. you're right now not in a very good position. you've allowed yourself to be in a very bad position. and he happens to be right about. >> the very beginning of the war. >> not in a good position. you don't have the cards right now with us. you start having cards. cards right now you don't. you're playing cards. you're playing. you're gambling with the lives of millions of people. you're gambling with world war three. you're gambling with world war three. and what you're doing is very disrespectful to the country, this country that's back to you far more than a lot of people said they should have. >> have you said thank you once this entire meeting? no. in this entire meeting, you said thank you. you went to pennsylvania

and campaigned for the opposition in october, offer some words of appreciation for the united states of america and the president who's trying to save your country. >> this you think that if you will speak very loudly about the war, you. >> are not speaking loudly. he's not speaking loudly. your country is in big trouble. can i wait a minute? no, no. you've done a lot of talking. your country is in big trouble. >> i know. >> you're not winning. no, you're not winning this. you have a damn good chance of coming out, okay? because of. >> us president, we are staying in our country, staying strong. from the very beginning of the war, we've been alone, and we are thankful. i said thanks. >> you haven't. >> been in this cabinet. >> we gave you through. this stupid president. $350 billion. we gave you military equipment. you and your men are brave. but they had to use our military. if you didn't have our military equipment. if you didn't have our military equipment, this war would have been over in two weeks. in three days?

>> i heard it from putin in three days. this is something. >> maybe less. >> in two weeks. of course. yes. >> it's going to be a very hard thing to do business like this, i tell you. >> you say thank you, i. >> don't accept that. except the american. >> people accept that there are disagreements and let's go litigate those disagreements rather than trying to fight it out in the american media. when you're wrong, we know that you're wrong. >> but you see, i think it's good for the american people to see what's going on. i think it's very important. that's why i kept this going so long. you have to be thankful you don't have the cards. you're buried there. your people are dying. you're running low on soldiers. >> listen. >> you're running low on soldiers. it would be a damn good thing. and then you. then you tell us. i don't want a cease fire. i don't want a cease fire. i want to go, and i want this. i. look, if you could get a cease fire right now, i tell you, you take it. so the bullets stop flying and your men stop getting killed. >> of course we want to stop the war. >> but you say you don't want to

see. >> i said to. >> you, i want to see. >> guarantees. >> because you get a cease fire faster than an agreement. >> our people about ceasefire. what they think. >> there wasn't. me. that wasn't with me. that was with a guy named biden who was not a smart person. that was your that was with obama. >> it was your. >> excuse me? that was with obama, who gave you a sheetz and i gave you javelins. yes. i gave you the javelins to take out all those tanks. obama gave you sheets. in fact, the statement is obama gave sheets and trump gave javelins. you got to be more thankful because let me tell you, you don't have the cards with us. you have the cards, but without us you don't have any cards. >> scott reaction pouring in from all over the world, as you can imagine to that exchange in the oval office. this now from dmitry medvedev, the former number two, to vladimir putin, russian government official in moscow, saying the insulin pig finally got a proper slap down in the oval office. and donald trump is right, the kyiv regime

is gambling with world war three. they're apparently liking what they see in moscow today. we saw reaction now from secretary of state marco rubio saying, thank you, president trump, for standing up for america in a way that no president has ever had the courage to do before. thank you for putting america first. america is with you. and then we saw senator lindsey graham, a republican of south carolina, here at the white house just a short time ago, who called the meeting a complete and utter disaster, said, i don't know if we can ever do business with zelensky again. the senator going on to say of zelensky, he either needs to resign and send somebody over that we can do business with, or he needs to change. >> scott eyman ian bremmer of the eurasia group, posting a short time ago, quote, best day for putin since the war started gives you a little more of an idea about how he thinks this is playing in moscow. as you already quoted. and let's be clear as well, though, this

spilled out into the open today. tensions have been rising behind the scenes for days. remember, president trump called president zelensky a dictator recently? there was that refusal by the defense secretary and another official to say directly that russia had invaded ukraine at the outset. and then, of course, earlier this week at the united nations, the u.s. opposing that resolution, backed by ukraine and other european nations, and instead voted with russia and north korea and others. >> officials here at the white house have been reluctant to even say that vladimir putin was the aggressor in this war, not using that language, being very careful not to bring any criticism toward vladimir putin at all. and you can see by that reaction from medvedev in moscow that they're liking what they're seeing out of this meeting. they want a rift between the united states and ukraine. they want an end to u.s. military aid to ukraine, ukraine that will help them press their military advantage and bring the war to a

close on terms closer to what they wanted when they got into this three years ago than what they've been able to get on the battlefield so far. >> eamon, thanks so much. stock market obviously reacting in real time to that exchange as we saw it recovering as we said a bit now the picture looking green in most areas of this market. let's bring in professor jeremy siegel of the wharton school. professor, it's good to have you. your reaction to the events of today through the prism of geopolitics and what it could mean for this market. >> extraordinary. i all i can. >> say now, i think europe was closed, but i think futures were open and they went down. i mean. >> i think a lot. >> of the. rally that we had seen over the past month, month and a half in europe was partly because of hopes of peace. and i mean, that's looking further away, certainly as a result of what we saw there. i mean, as

far as impact on the us market, i mean, you, you know, previous show you you've had some discussion on oil. it's really hard to tell how that will play out. i think europe is going to be the main impact of the this break between zelensky and trump. >> what's your general sense about where this market is? obviously, volatility has picked up recently. there are concerns over a slowdown in the economy and certain areas and factors within this market have been quite upset lately. yeah. >> well it was interesting and i was watching 830 and everyone was watching the pce deflator, and i get all the data on my screen and all of a sudden that trade deficit came out and i couldn't believe it. and in fact, i thought it was a misprint. i mean that to not only the biggest we've ever had in history, the change from the previous month was more than twice as great as any change we've ever had in the last 75

years. and i said, that's going to blow out gdp for the first quarter. now, you know, first of all, i'm not agreeing with i think the trouble with the land of fad, i mean, it comes out quick, but there's a lot of offsets to that. but almost every analyst is now down in the one range for gdp this first quarter, which would be the slowest in two and a half years, which would be below the fed target and much lower than we thought. in early january. so, i mean, this is now because, you know, a lot of what we, you know, trade deficit subtracts from gdp in the accounting. now a lot of that's going into inventory. so once we get all the inventory data some of that is going to come back. but listen we've seen slowing on everything. retail sales were not good in january. jobless claims jumped above 240. housing starts were not good. home sales were not good. there's

definitely a slowdown. and i mean, obviously that's much more important, i think, to the market than really what happened to his zelenskyy today. >> are you less bullish as a result. >> well you know i came on cnbc january 2nd for the markets open. i said i thought we could get a correction this year. and this year was going to be probably a gain but really modest, more modest. and i, i see that for, you know, playing out at this particular point, you know, there there's a lot of challenges. i mean, a lot of people, for instance, thought that the house vote that, you know, is going to start the process was, you know, the victory for the trump tax cuts. it is it is not it's not enough. i mean, they that budget, to my understanding at least what i heard is not enough to even to

extend for seven years of the trump tax cuts that they're going to expire in ten months, not not even counting for what trump, you know, wants to further tax cut after that. i mean, it's a blueprint, but it's not it's not enough. so i mean, there's a there's an awful lot of negotiations going on. you know, i mean, you know, i would you know much i think that's the most important thing is to get those tax cuts permanent or at least another seven years, because with the market listen, you can't you can't wait on the margin in the house is just too small. and that's what i would concentrate on the, on the current time. and i think the market now is now. and then on top of that of course there's tariffs and there's no question that sentiment declines are related to tariffs. so i mean look at the trade deficit. the sentiment declines. people say

oh you know let's wait. trump might not put any of these on. so you know it's not going to have the effect that you think it's already had an effect. i mean a tangible effect. we would not have had the super record trade deficit that we had. we would not have had the sentiment declines that we had. they all mentioned in that. and we don't want to know what's going to happen in four days or in a month, in four days, and what kind of tariffs and why should there be more tariffs on tariffs on mexico and canada than than china, where at least we got some bipartisan support that there should be tariffs there. we don't know where we're going in that direction. he has to nail. he's trying to do too much in my opinion. trump i mean he's trying to do good things but too much. and i you know we don't want all this to fall apart because there's a lot of good things that need to be done. >> yeah. there's a lot of uncertainty obviously weighing on the minds of the fed. no doubt. professor, stay with me for a moment if you would. i do

want to bring in our cnbc senior economics correspondent steve liesman. steve, the fed, as we say, trying to make sense of the uncertainty as well, professor, didn't seem to be all that bothered by the atlanta fed. read this morning down 1.5 for q one, which certainly jumps out at you. do you want to put into perspective where you think this economy actually is? yeah. >> i'm going to apply for a job with professor siegel. scott, i think i qualify here because i really saw a lot of what he saw in there. and i actually dug into the atlanta fed numbers and get get this scott lanta fed, -1.5%, 3.7% negative from the trade numbers. and in fact, to serve the professor, i brought along a chart look at the import numbers for january, up nearly 12% just that month. what's going on there scott? that's probably front running the tariffs. people bringing stuff in. the trouble is it could happen again in february because

remember the tariffs were threatened. so it may happen again. and obviously the professor is right about this that when you have a big import it's subtracts from gdp. some of it ends up in inventory. that's one set of things. i kind of put that aside because i think it's at some point that will equalize or normalize. it's the 0.9% income numbers and the negative and the small spending numbers. that's more concerning to me, because you have had that decline in sentiment, somewhat related to the tariffs. and if that ends up being a spending problem, that's where you could have real economic weakness. now, income numbers were high, spending numbers were low, savings went up. people do have the means to spend if they feel like spending. but right now it feels like some of these policies have, you know, scared the children here. now you may be giving them candy down the road if you're the administration, but right now you're kind of scaring them with some of these tariffs scott. so

that is not helping. and i think that that's something that's unsettling to consumers. we'll see. there was also some weather in january we're thinking about. so i'm going to just take a pause and also backing up the professor on this. we did look at some of the other prints on the street in terms of gdp, scott in the 1.5% range. on the positive side, not taking as much off as the atlanta fed does now. it's a model. it's not the perfect model at the atlanta fed. >> what we have seen as you well know, steve, and i'm sure you'll show us in the way you answer this question, is that probabilities for rate cuts have only been increasing, in part because of this slowdown that people are worried about. >> i that is absolutely true. we can show you those probabilities. they went up by like ten percentage points, especially, by the way, for that second cut being all the way forward to september. member scott not too long ago, a week ago, that second cut was maybe and very tentatively priced in for january 2026. now you've got a solid support for one big

first cut in june. i think the market is a little ahead of itself. scott, when i think about how the fed could be gaming out these tariffs, these tariffs come through. they create a rise in the price level. but it will be uncertain as to whether or not they create broader inflation. and the way that the tariffs right now look to be playing in the american psyche. i would be legitimately worried about that because it's interesting to me. scott, as you know, we've been polling here at cnbc for, i don't know, 17 years now. and it's rare that an economic story like this is so embedded in the american psyche. but when they're offering to the surveyors, the university of michigan, that i'm worried about prices because of tariffs, you know, that story is out there and it's of real concern to the public. >> they've already gone through it once before as well. so they sort of understand the dynamic of the impact that it may have on their pocketbooks. >> and it's coming off of a period of inflation. that's a key difference between these these tariffs now and in 2018,

2018 you did not have inflation. there wasn't this concern that you would get into inflation expectations. but we have seen a real rise in, i would say for the fed a worrisome rise scott. and you saw jeff schmidt who's no radical on the federal reserve committee there. he's a voter this year. and he said he's concerned that the fed could have to deal with higher prices and weaker growth. >> don't you have goolsbee coming up in a bit later this afternoon? >> that's a question we're going to ask austan goolsbee. at 430 this afternoon, the chicago fed president asked him about this concern about what's happening in terms of tariffs and how he would play through them. what does he think the market is? maybe, as i'm suggesting, maybe a little bit ahead of itself in terms of pricing in that second cut, even the first cut quite so soon before the fed has visibility on the impact of tariffs on the broader inflation story. >> we'll look forward to that conversation. steve, thank you. our senior economics correspondent. let's now bring in brian levitt of invesco and keith lerner of truist wealth. the professor of course, is still with us. professor, to you first, before i get to the other

gentleman, this would imply, of course, that even if the economy is slowing and the data was bad, the stock market is green. that the fed, put so to speak, is alive and well. >> well, you know, there's a whole cycle of data before the march 19th meeting or we're going to get, of course, next friday an employment report. we're going to get a, you know, a whole new set of cpi and ppi, which of course gives us the next pce report. so there's a lot of and i think they're on hold. but if the data continues to weaken and you know we would prefer them to lower because of lower inflation not because of recession. but i think that the, you know, the bond, the bond rate going from, you know, 450 down to 425. and by the way, that's inverted the term structure once again because fed

funds is 433. and now we got the ten year below that. that's a you know that's an inverted term structure. and you know it may not have been the signal it used to be. but it's not a great signal. you know, that might induce the fed to move. but i don't think in march i think there's too much uncertainty without, you know, inflation really being vanquished. but the speed of events is just so fast that, you know, in the next, you know, 20, 23 days, you know, we're going to have a lot more data. >> and i and i wonder, keith lerner, whether all of this has conspired to force you to downgrade u.s. equities, which you did earlier this week, to neutral, which was a big call in its own right. >> yeah. well, great to. >> be. >> with you. great to be with the panel. so on monday, as you mentioned, we did downgrade equities to neutral after being big bulls over the last year. we followed a wave of the evidence approach and the weight of the evidence has shifted. and the backdrop, as professor just

discussed, is more mixed. so the first thing, as mentioned already, we're seeing some cooling in the economy. we all have heard that the economic surprise index is the lowest since september. the other thing which i pay a lot of attention to is forward earnings estimates. that's been a key pillar of this bull market. and after rising steadily over the last couple of years, it's actually starting to move sideways at a time when valuations are still rich. we really need earnings to come through. those forward estimates are starting to move sideways. turning to the technicals, we only have about 50% of stocks in uptrend. so again another mixed measure as well. and then what you all just alluded to at the same time all this is happening i think the fed is somewhat boxed in because of the tariff uncertainty. and we're having a little bit of fiscal tightening with some of the spending cuts that's being discussed in doj's. you put that all together. the weight of the evidence has shifted. again, we're not saying this is catastrophic, but on the margin, we think a more neutral posture is warranted for the time being. >> we have brian been, i think, told don't pay attention too

much to the noise. it's a lot of noise, a. >> lot of noise. >> look forward, look, see the forest through the trees. right, if you will. has the noise started to become more important to pay attention to at this point? well. >> it's a. >> different story than we had coming into the year where i think a lot of people were excited about a pro growth story coming from the administration. so certainly what's different is all the uncertainty that we have around trade policy and all the uncertainty we have around fiscal consolidation. so it's not surprising to see the markets volatile in this period. it's not surprising to see defensive low volatility outperformance. what i found today that was positive through all this noise and negativity, core personal consumption expenditure year over year, the fed's preferred measure of inflation 2.6%. so that's a positive. it's been inflation has been consistently within the fed's comfort zone for a while now. and it does bring the federal reserve back into play. so i'd be more panicked if

credit spreads were blowing out. they're not. we're in a period of uncertainty in markets. markets are a little bit volatile. as a result. i think we slow i think the fed steps forward and eases, and i think the advance in the market ultimately continues. >> talking about what i asked the professor about fed put and that is why you have a cushion of sorts. you not only have a fed that is looking to be more engaged, it's just looking for the right moment to be so. and then also looking ahead like the professor was talking about, to ultimately get to the tax cuts and the deregulation and have some of the stimulating factors where you would have more deals in this environment. to the so-called animal spirits we heard so much about until now. >> yeah, until now, we're dealing with right now the opposite of animal spirits. and yeah, from the federal reserve's perspective, i would look at a few things. 2018 the tariffs led to a price jump in the goods that were affected, not broad based inflation. second, we're seeing the quits rate in the job

market come down. usually you don't see wages accelerate. when that's happening. the shelter component looks better. and quite frankly, the you know, some of the things that we're looking at in inflation that have been a little bit more troublesome are things like auto insurance rates, egg prices. so these things tend to be a little bit more idiosyncratic than if you look broad based at what's going on in the picture. so i have said coming into this year, i'm still more worried about growth than i am about inflation. and i'm going to stick to that story. professor, you leave this. >> week thinking about technology through the eyes of nvidia and the way that that stock is traded. now, a number of momentum type names have had a really tough go of it, and none of the mega-caps for that matter have traded all that well of late. many are off double digit percentage points from their highs, some more distinctly than others. but how do you feel about this group led by nvidia, if you will, after the week in which they report earnings? >> and i think i think this all

shows the importance of being diversified. certainly those of us that have kept a value tilt, we've underperformed, there's no question, but certainly we've overperformed over the last six, eight weeks. and it just like, you know, you hold some bonds because it will often go up when stock market goes down. diversification is important. you know, just riding one horse up, you know, is dangerous in this market. and i mean that's something to remember. and also with respect to the fed put i agree the fed will definitely move down if the economy slows. but remember you know, business cycles, bear markets, bull markets are all part of capitalism and always will be. and you know, we haven't banished the business cycle or or bear markets. so things can happen. but long run right now again x x mag seven. so you stay

diversified. you have 18 1917 even p e ratio. not at all overpriced in my opinion. >> we will leave it there. we'll make that the last word. gentlemen. thank you so much, professor siegel, brian and keith. we'll see. all of you i know very soon. well, following that explosive meeting at the white house earlier today between president trump and ukrainian president zelensky, let's bring in the former ambassador to russia, michael mcfaul. he was ambassador under president obama from 2012 to 2014. mr. ambassador, it's good to have you on our program today. thank you for being here. >> sure. >> thanks for having me. >> i know you come at this from a partizan prism. i've seen some of your posts on social. >> no, no i don't i need to disagree with that. i come from. >> this from an american perspective, thinking about american foreign. >> policy and. >> american national. >> security interests. >> so you were critical nonetheless, of the activities that took place today in the oval office against the president and the vice president, and even in some

respects, what's been said afterwards by the secretary of state, i'm looking at some social media posts of yours. my intention in mentioning that was i'd like to try and not have this as a distinctly partizan conversation, but one that can advance the ball forward, if you would, and your reaction to what you saw today as it pertains to, you know, the geopolitical relationships that seem to be changing is what. >> well, i. >> said. >> what i said, i apologize for interrupting because that's the easy play. but if somehow you criticize what the president is doing, you're somehow partizan. >> and i am an american first. and i. >> think about. >> american national. security interests first. >> i work at the hoover institution, not exactly a bastion of progressive thinking. and what i saw today, i don't think as an american is in. >> our. national interest. what happened today? >> who does it serve? it serves vladimir putin. putin is a dictator. he invaded a

democratic country for no reason. >> he has annexed. 20% of that country. >> for no reason. he has killed thousands of people, civilians for no reason. he has taken 20,000 ukrainian. >> kids and. >> kidnaped them. >> and so if we're doing things that help. >> him. >> i don't think that is in america's long term national interest. i want to be on the side of freedom and democracy, not on the side of the dictators. and today was not a good day for american diplomacy. >> why do you think that this administration has had a difficult time articulating the perspective that you just put forth? you had, as i said earlier, when i was discussing this with president trump calling zelensky a dictator, the refusal of our defense secretary to come out and say publicly and definitively that it was russia who was the aggressor in all of this. and then, of course, the vote at the un earlier this week. >> you need to ask them that. i

do not understand it. i don't understand it because we've never in our country's history voted with the rogue regimes that we voted for in the united nations. that is just unprecedented. we never criticize putin. i mean, let's just talk about the deal for a minute, right? let's just leave out, you know, putin versus zelensky. i've negotiated with the russians. i know what it's like. they're tough negotiators, and it's diplomacy one on one that you don't give away all your best cards before you sit down at the table. and i just don't understand the strategy. i worry that the president is actually not interested in a deal about ukraine. he's more interested in restarting relations with russia. and. but i don't understand it. you need to ask them. >> can this be repaired? what happened today? what do you think the next step needs to be? >> i hope so it's in america's interest to sign that minerals

deal. that was a good deal for the american people that they didn't sign it today. that's no good for us. and we just need to measure outcomes based on what is good for american national security interests and not get into all this personal stuff. and relitigating what happened in 2016 and all that. i wish the president and his team would focus on what's good for us today, and this is a good deal. and so i hope that the diplomats will take over. diplomacy works best when it's behind closed doors. not impressed. and i hope secretary rubio and his team will now re engage with their ukrainian counterparts and continue to engage with their russian counterparts. by the way, i support the president's notion that we have to deal with the russians as well. i support what the vice president said today that we have to talk to russia to get a deal, but let's do it in ways that advance our interests and are just not not for public consumption, because

no diplomacy that's ever succeeded it that i've ever studied or practiced happens in front of press breaks. >> what do you say to those who suggest the money can't keep flowing forever and ever and ever, and some drastic measure of some kind needs to be taken to end this war? and if tough talk in the oval office today is the thing that moves the ball forward to get it done, so be it. >> if at the end of the day, the blow up today leads to a deal, a mineral deal, and then leads to peace, i will applaud president trump. i've been i've been in negotiations before where i've had blow ups. i've had russian officials walk out of the room because it got so heated. there wasn't a camera there. but that's happened. and if that happens, i'll be the first to applaud president trump. but let's be clear there is no money flowing to ukraine right now. that is a myth there. we did not give ukraine $350 billion. that

is a myth. this deal that the president of ukraine flew here to sign would have been good for the american people. that would have led to money eventually flowing to us. by the way, six, eight, ten years from now, it takes a long time to get mineral and mineral mining companies up and running, and they're not going to go in there while the war is ongoing. but that would have been good for precisely the point that you did. so maybe they blew it up this time and they'll resurrect it. i hope that to be true, because this would have been a good outcome for us. and we missed that opportunity today. >> sir, i appreciate so very much you joining me and clearly didn't mean any disrespect at the outset here. i think what makes us. >> special here. is that we jumped on it on purpose. i wanted to make sure i had that chance, so i appreciate the opportunity. >> thanks. it's fair. i do think what makes us special is that we focus so intensely on policy and not so much politics. i appreciate you being part of the conversation today. >> thanks a lot. thanks for having me. >> it's michael mcfaul joining us here on closing bell. up next, avery sheffield is

standing by with how she's navigating this volatility, what she expects from stocks as we head into a fresh trading month. back after this. >> short. on. >> the bond report is brought to you by pimco, a global leader in active fixed income. >> this is the emirates premium economy seat. >> i. >> economy perhaps they need to call it something else.

>> this is a story about the one. the one who keeps it all moving. he is measured, precise. he thinks ahead, stops the right parts, and knows just where to find them. >> because for the one, this facility is about more than business. the industrial grade products you need delivered fast. call click grainger.com or stop by grainger for the ones who get it done. >> meet grasa. >> let's go gals. >> this is. never blended chef quality olive oil starting at $16. >> when it comes to olive oil, grandma's know best grasa.

available now. >> at grasa. >> i'm tony stein, digital strategist at americaneagle.com. after kansas city steaks experienced declining traffic and conversion rates, they came to us primed for online growth. we solve digital challenges like this all the time by leveraging an omnichannel digital marketing strategy. kansas city attracted new customers and significantly increased roi for complete website and digital marketing solutions. go to americaneagle.com. >> a cnbc exclusive chicago fed president austan goolsbee reaction to the highly anticipated inflation report. plus impact on fed policy. john ford. morgan your well-being. sr

sale and make your dream office a reality. >> welcome back. it's been a volatile stretch for stocks. nasdaq closing in on its worst month since september of 23. our next guest sees more risk market downside from here. joining me now post nine avery sheffield,

cio and senior portfolio manager at vantage. nice to see you again. welcome back. great to be here. we've had a day. >> yes a day a. >> week a month. >> yeah. what's it tell you about where this market's going. >> well i mean. >> i am worried about. potential weakness ahead because you have the combination of still high. valuations across many stocks. still high expectations and an economy that is more uncertain than it's been in the past. >> you feel so has your view sort of gotten a little more dour about where you think the market can go as a result of all of that? i. >> yes. i mean, i've. >> been concerned. >> that the market is set up for a cemetery to the downside for a while, but you didn't have near-term catalysts. but now, with the signs of consumer sentiment weakening, you know, the atlanta fed gdp potentially negative. and that's certainly due to a lot of potentially pull forward of imports. but, you know, business commentary and conference calls are speaking about the uncertainty businesses are feeling about the political environment. and that's leading them to pull back. i think that,

you know, we could see some wobbling of economic weakness. and that's set against the valuations. just makes me a bit more concerned. >> what do you make of speaking of valuation, how a part of the market that was more valued than another obviously the momentum factor. >> yes. >> has reset itself without causing a massive disruption to the overall market. that's a good sign. >> it is. >> actually a good sign. and so when you talk about the market as a whole, i think there is certainly a question mark of how much inexpensive, defensives, inexpensive, inexpensive, cyclical stocks that have maybe even a lot of political uncertainty priced in could actually outperform if rates come down. and those specific businesses end up being more on the defensive side, more defensive than anticipated. but does that offset, you know, downside from the mega-cap, some of which are still richly valued even with the recent pullback? so i don't know how that works out, but i do think there are

opportunities to upside. i'm not bearish on every stock out there by a long shot. >> sure. but if you think that there's going to be maybe a more pronounced if not prolonged sort of period here of weakness in the economy that has the chance of upsetting a broadening trade, that there were a lot of believers in it. >> it does have that chance for sure, for sure. and we have seen a lot of companies, especially on the cyclical side, that have been pricing in a goldilocks scenario. so they're very expensive on current earnings, with the expectation that rates will come down in a benign way because inflation will come off without any real economic weakness. and we think there's a lot of vulnerability there. but there. and yet there are still maybe fewer. to your point, defensive stocks that are inexpensive and don't face political risk, as well as cyclicals that are in a unique position if rates come down. >> yeah. what do you make of the more defensive posture, tone and tenor of the trade. right. the staples doing so well. health care waking up after a couple of

sleepy years. those aren't exactly i'm feeling great about the marketplace right. >> they're not. and actually, i think those might not be as safe places to hang out on the defensive side. so staples, especially in food with the, you know, with the threat of snap payments, with concern over health and glp one and processed foods and beverages that are high in sugar like those might be vulnerable. traditionally they've been defensive, but that if people are going to buy more fresh food, which isn't mostly publicly traded, they might not be as defensive. and then on the health care side, you know, with doge and with the hhs having a very different political view on health care, those might not be as safe. but i think there are other defensive places in the market that you can look. >> i know you well. you like the telcos. is that what you're talking about? because, by the way, i have noticed from, you know, on half time earlier today, some of the people on on my program, they're, they're watching the at&t and verizon and t-mobile over the last month

leading the way in their portfolios. >> absolutely. well, i mean, over the past year, you have a couple of those names up around 60%, you know, one of which still trades at a 9% free cash flow yield. you, you, you have, you know, had expectations that these are really secular losers that increased competition from cable competition among them would lead to really restrained earnings growth moving forward and even earnings declines. but the wireless plans have proven stickier than people have thought, and they actually have a secular growth story of the rollout of fiber and fixed wireless continuing to gain traction, that where they're really benefiting from the pricing umbrella provided by cable. so you've got very cheap valuations in the case of two of them, reasonable valuations for all three. defensive not really that politically sensitive. so i think those could continue to work. >> we'll have to leave it there. avery thank you so much. it's good to see you again. very busy hour for us and we'll keep it moving. but we'll see you soon. my pleasure. avery sheffield up

next. ron insana is with us. he weighs in on president trump's clash today with president zelensky. what all of it could mean for the markets moving mean for the markets moving forward. we're back oh, it makes me want to tear up. i swear to god, there ain't no way i would be here without tik tok. i got really good at tearing motors apart and putting them back together, and the car still worked. i received so much support for that, and it made me feel like, okay, maybe i can really, really, really do this. (♪♪) my business has tripled in the last year because of me sharing my videos on tiktok. i wouldn't be able to support the families they'll work for me now without tik tok. without the increase in sales. (♪♪) (vo) if you're only maxing out a 401k, you can add a robinhood ira with a 3% contribution boost. (nasa pilot vo) roger that. (vo) robinhood gold gives you an instant 3% match on your annual ira contributions. ♪ ♪♪ my husband dean has always worried about his diabetes. he was afraid that once he reached retirement

he wouldn't be able to enjoy it. but getting dexcom g7 has put dean in control of his health. wherever we go... he can easily manage his sugar levels and make sure he is staying in range. dexcom g7 has given us confidence in the future... wherever it takes us. where to next? ♪♪ a treasure. >> trove for the bad guys. >> by downloading one. >> simple document. >> forging your name. >> onto that. >> document. >> and using a fake notary stamp. >> the bad guy. >> can transfer. >> your home's. title into. >> their name. home title lock has 24 seven monitoring of your home's title and any change. you will be alerted. go to home title law.com. the peace of mind that that offers. >> is invaluable. >> if you're. >> like i was, you're tired. >> of worn out plastic mats

under your office chair. they dent and crack and they're uncomfortable to roll on. i found a premium alternative, a glass chairman by vetrazzo. i liked it so much i bought the company. i'm george pardo, president of vetrazzo. our glass chair mats are made of super strong glass and protected with a nanotech coating. so you'll always get a smooth, easy glide. and they're beautiful. tired of replacing plastic? i promise. this is the last chair mat you'll need, and we give you a lifetime warranty. comfort, style. durability of a glass chair mat will completely transform your workspace, home office or office office. we stock 18 popular sizes, and we ship free to anywhere in the lower 48. get the look you deserve. i invite you to shop online at usa.com. use promo code tv and save 10% on any glass chair mat at vetrazzo. com. >> sometimes small. >> companies disrupt entire

industries. meet fathom symbol. fathom expects 2025 to be its breakout year, as it. >> leads real estate's transformation with a cutting edge technology platform. already the sixth largest independent real estate company in the us. >> fathom is rapidly. >> growing thanks to its. >> low overhead virtual. model and a recent acquisition projected. >> to add 110. >> million in revenue. >> by research. ratings from. top small cap analysts. fathom. >> fourth. >> you don't have the cards right now with us. you start having cards. cards right now you don't. you're playing cards. you're playing. you're gambling with the lives of millions of people. you're gambling with world war three, you're gambling with world war three.

>> that, of course, president trump. ukrainian president zelensky during that heated exchange earlier today in the oval office markets, reacting to that uncertainty, selling off before bouncing back. in fact, we're at session highs right now. let's get ron and sonia's reaction. he's iphi a's ceo, cnbc contributor. it's good to see you. welcome back. >> thank you. >> your reaction as you viewed that today. but again just through the prism about how the market should be thinking about these complex geopolitical relationships that we have and the way that some of them might be changing. >> yeah. i mean, i. >> must say, scott. >> i'm pretty much. >> taken aback by. >> the market reaction that we've seen, you know. thus far, leading to new highs for. >> the day. >> i think maybe what's going on here. a couple of things. interest rates are down. and so that's a cushioning. factor for. >> the equity markets. with the yield on the ten year now. >> at 421 concerns, you know perhaps that the economy is weakening. >> as avery was saying. >> earlier on, i. >> don't know how to.

>> put this particular event in historical context. i mean, i've been watching the news. my first experience was watching lyndon baines johnson announce that he wasn't going to run for reelection in 1968. and i can say, honestly, i've never seen anything like the tag team in the white house that we saw today with vice president vance and president trump and president zelensky. i don't recall anything ever like this in the public eye. and so i'm not quite sure how to interpret the market's response other than to possibly look through this and see that there's an end to. the russia ukraine war coming, that maybe, as michael mcfaul was suggesting, there's a mineral deal that's positive for the us on the other side, and that this is coming to a conclusion in some way, shape or form. i am struck by the fact that european markets are dramatically outperforming the us. i mean, you look at germany, italy and spain, they're each up 13%. we're flat on the year. so i think the markets are starting to look through a lot of this, not necessarily to our benefit, maybe to europe's more so than. >> than. >> that of the us.

>> but i mean, there are those, you know, who have had the perspective for a while, even coming into this year, as optimistic as they were about this new administration, more pro growth was the belief that the first half was going to be dicey anyway because it was going to take some, you know, sausage making process to get to the tax cut point. and that's ugly, right. and no one likes to see that. but you could you were going to have, you know, executive orders and tariffs. and that was going to be volatile in the first half of the year. but second half you're going to start to get the fruits of the reward of what people thought was going to happen. >> yeah, i'm not sure i buy that. i mean, i'm a little more pessimistic on the outlook for the us economy than i have been in for a while. i mean, when you think about the possibility of, you know, a couple hundred thousand federal workers being laid off, and of course, if they do get eight months of severance, they won't be immediately applying for unemployment insurance benefits. but we did see jobless claims bounce yesterday. and so you could make the argument that

extending the tax cuts, which don't change a lot in terms of what people's take home pay would be, is one going to increase the size of the deficit and the debt? and number two, it's also going to weaken the economy simultaneously. as doge, you know, kind of moves through the federal government and reduces employment in a noticeable way. if we were to see claims in a couple of months hit 400,000, you know, those are recession level numbers that would freak the markets out, i think. and so i'm not sure how pro-growth all of this is really. and the tariffs most certainly are not. and i think even the bond market is looking at tariffs as more of a recessionary issue than an inflationary one. certainly that's what the behavior would tell us. so i'm not sure how pro-growth the first year of this really is, despite the conventional wisdom that has been pushing that line, you know, since since before the election. >> there there are obviously high hopes related to the eye trade, one in which you are now, as we said at the outset, here, involved with professionally. but what did you learn, do you think, what did we as investors

learn this week about that trade? >> i think to a certain extent you're rotating away, and this was true during the internet era as well. you know, you move away from the infrastructure plays, which, you know, have laid the groundwork for applied artificial intelligence uses. and i think so, as you move away from infrastructure, you start looking at more applied uses, whether it's in healthcare, whether it's in financial services, legal services and the like. i think the plays to come from a public markets perspective, to the extent that they're available, are going to be in ways or in ways in which artificial intelligence will be used to enhance either existing businesses or provide new services to companies that, you know, heretofore have not been available. so we did this, you know, from 95 to 2000. you moved away from the pick and shovel plays eventually and started going into the applied plays. so, you know, in the early days it was the build out and it was the laying of fiber and then the amazons of the world and the other successful players who were overlaid on top of that

infrastructure became the more dominant themes. and i think that's probably where we are in this, in this part of the cycle. >> ron, we'll see you soon. appreciate your time. thank you, ron and sana, joining us here on closing bell. up next rough week for shares of nvidia. as you know we're going to drill down on that move. the stock is now higher on the day. take a look at that gain there. the rest of at that gain there. the rest of the chips have that moment you walk in the office and people are wearing the same gear, you feel a sense of connectedness and belonging right away. and our shirts from custom ink help bring us together. we make it easy to wow all your groups with high quality custom apparel and promo products, all backed by our guarantee at customink.com. [announcement call] final boarding call. i didn't use agentforce, the powerful ai from salesforce, so an ai agent didn't send me the fastest route to my gate,

which has changed. [airport bus engine] [whistling] i'll tell the pilot to hold the plane. they've got an app for that, dude! agentforce helps heathrow create a first-class experience. agentforce. it's what ai was meant to be. interviews and stock picks. become a smarter investor with become a smarter investor with the power of cnbc - people couldn't see my potential.

so i had to show them. - i've run this place for 20 years, but i still need to prove that i'm more than what you see on paper. - today i'm the ceo of my own company. - it's the way my mind works. i have a very mechanical brain. - why are we not rethinking this? - i am more... - i'm more... ...than who i am on paper. templeton, we're expanding access to the growing opportunity in private markets, offering the potential for greater diversification and enhanced returns through our world class specialist investment managers. we are empowering advisors with

solutions to build the portfolios of the future today. portfolios of the future today. alternatives by franklin power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis, help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. ♪♪ with powerful, easy-to-use tools power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley account minimums. >> this is the. >> closing bell market zone. cnbc senior markets commentator mike santoli here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. plus christina partsinevelos on nvidia and the chips and how they fared this week. michael a better than 600

point range today. it's been pretty remarkable. >> it has. scott i think the setup matters a lot. the s&p. 500 down in a straight line, 4.5% from a record high last week. looking at least tentatively oversold at the open. obviously it was it was trying to be apprehensive in figuring out whether these kind of huge, huge and dramatic events that we all witnessed at the white house were going to matter in the moment. so it could be of world historical significance. but what's more, immediately relevant to the stock market was a massive month end market on close by, and balance of more than $4 billion. is a big index reshuffle happening here in msci indexes things like that. and i think that just levitated the market in this last little bit. i don't see it as really a verdict on what it meant the rest of the news of the day. it's much more about oversold market. nothing to reprice on a geopolitical front yet. and we do have a little bit of a demand imbalance

after we had a pretty rough end to this month. >> yeah. christina nvidia and the others, they sure needed this bounce that we're seeing right now. >> they did. but if we zoom out it's still pretty rough. >> and it is tough living up to your own success. >> last year nvidia. >> was tripling. >> sales hitting 79% gross margins. >> they're still crushing it. >> shares are up. >> today, but wall street really has. >> a short. >> term memory or short memory. take their projected. >> qanon margins. >> investors panicked. >> at only. >> 70%. >> completely ignoring the fact that. >> the. >> s&p or the. >> semiconductor industry average. >> is just 51.5. >> so clearly nvidia is better. >> the market's. >> gotten way too leveraged. >> though on nvidia bets. >> those leverage. >> nvidia etfs. >> you're seeing on your screen. >> nvda. >> nbdl they've tanked. >> far. >> worse this week than. >> leveraged s&p funds. so showing. >> just how speculative this has all become. high leverage makes markets more fragile. >> so one sharp. >> move can really trigger. >> a domino effect of. >> forced forced selling, i should say. and mike. >> talked about it. with trump's. >> new tariffs hitting march

for. chip stocks. >> are already feeling the heat. >> the vaneck semiconductor etf is having its worst week since last september. marvell on lam stm all on your screen, all down double digits this week. and despite all the drama. >> nvidia is. >> actually trading at a cheaper forward p e 27 times than the average. oh, i should say, in line with the average nasdaq. >> company at. >> the moment. >> all right, cristina, thank you very much. good weekend to you. we'll see you on the other side of that. i'll go back to mike. santoli just got the two minute warning. i suppose a big question heading into next week mike will be whether the momentum unwind has run its course for some stocks within that purview. maybe but certainly not all. >> no i do think that some of the mega-caps that fall into that category got a little bit of relief today. tesla sort of made a stand at its 200 day average back to its election day level. so that allowed, you know, things like bitcoin and nvidia bouncing in concert. so it took a little bit of the pressure off. you get a clean

month i don't think that means that much necessarily. it's not like the quarter turns over, but it could matter in this situation when you have this factor. pinball. still don't think the market has has sort of proven anything just yet. it seems a little bit fragile. it's very similar to the late july selloff we got. remember we were greeted by the yen carry trade blow up after that. if we don't get something, maybe we've found enough of a footing here that that can last. next week you're still going to face, you know, tariff deadlines, government shutdown. but maybe, you know, this big spill in some of the most overheated stocks was enough to take some of the heat off of off the table. >> mike, we'll see you in a little bit. thank you. good weekend to you. that's mike santoli our senior markets commentator. a really extraordinary day i know i've used that word so many times but can't think of a better one frankly to describe the events of that we saw in the oval office down at the white house today and then, for that matter, that's taken place here on wall street today. i told you it was a better than 600 point range, maybe even like seven or more

than that now, because we're going to go out with a more than 600 point game for the dow jones industrial average. that takes us out. green. great weekend. i'll see you on the other side. covid-19. >> that's the end. >> of regulation. >> clarity ringing the closing bell at the new york stock exchange. we buzz international doing the honors at the nasdaq. >> well stocks. closing at. >> session highs. the dow up more than 600 points even after a tense exchange. >> exchange in the. >> oval office between president trump and ukrainian. >> president zelensky. >> led to a volatile session. >> as we wrap. >> up trading. >> for february, all the major averages. >> are. lower on the month, but that's the scorecard here on wall street. the action, though, is just getting started. welcome to closing bell overtime. >> i'm morgan. >> brennan with john ford. >> coming up this hour, chicago fed president austan goolsbee is going to join us for an exclusive interview on the renewe