absolutely. >> world class. >> ai has become better. if you believe every customer experience is going to be reinvented by generative ai, then you're going to be building a lot of generative ai apps. >> even if you say i. >> i don't think. >> they're going to be deflationary in the short run. it may very. >> well be deflationary. you know. >> after 3 or. >> 4 years. but most. >> of us for now, we're. >> spending more money on it, not less. >> washington looms over. wall street with new. tariffs just hours away. >> there will be tariffs. there will be cuts in regulation. there will be cheaper energy. so i would expect that very quickly. we will. >> be down to. >> the fed's. >> 2% target. >> so this after friday's. >> shouting match in. >> the oval. >> office, sent stocks. >> spiraling before a. sharp snapback. >> and markets rallying. >> to their best day. >> in a month. and then the president. >> sparks a rally in cryptocurrency. >> buckle up. >> it's monday, march the 3rd, 2025. >> this is worldwide exchange here on cnbc.

>> good morning. >> thanks so much for being. >> here with us. >> i am. >> frank collin. welcome to. >> a critical day for. >> wall street and for your money, after a historic. >> showing in the oval. office on friday for what many people believe. >> was all the wrong reasons. >> you don't. >> have the cards right. now with us. you start having cards. >> cards right now you don't. >> are you playing cards? >> you're playing. >> you're gambling. >> with the. lives of millions of people. >> you're gambling with. >> world war three. >> you're gambling. >> with world. >> war three. >> and then a visceral. market reaction. >> to the trump. >> zelensky exchange. >> before ending. >> the day sharply higher. >> the markets ending. >> with their best day since. >> mid january. we're just showing. >> you some. >> of the. >> time lapse here. you see after. >> that exchange. markets taking a dip and then continuing to. >> move higher. after that. >> the vix also. >> surging to. >> its highest level. of the year. >> and with that we look at the movements this morning. >> we're going to. >> take a look at u.s. stock futures. after all that action on friday. take a look at us

stock futures. right now. we're seeing u.s. stock futures in the green across the board. so the dow looks like it. >> would. open fractionally. >> higher looking like it open about 60 points higher. the s&p up just about a quarter of a percent 17 points or so. the nasdaq the best. performer up about 90 points almost about a third of a percent. so this morning investors are also looking ahead to. president trump's tariffs that are set to take effect tomorrow. we're taking a look at the etfs that track the countries that are in active tariff. discussions are expected to be tariffs in this case china. the etf right now falling back more than a half a percent. the mexico etf the uww up just fractionally right now the canadian etf no movement at all. the indian etf right now up just over a half a percent. so tracking the action on these different countries. again tariff discussions are expected to face tariffs as soon as tomorrow. also some big moves in crypto after president trump announced a strategic crypto reserve holding bitcoin, solana, xrp and more. take a look. right now we're showing you the two day moves right here. the crypto markets pulling back a bit right now. remember they trade around the clock. big jumps though. you can see the big jumps after the

announcement was made since the announcement was made. bitcoin up almost 7.5%. ether up over 5.5%. bigger moves. we're looking at ripple and solana and also cardano up almost 4,748% right now. so big jumps. we're looking at the cryptocurrency moves right now as i mentioned a big pullback this morning taking a look at the action this morning. we're looking at cryptocurrency bitcoin pulling back 2.5%. similar pullbacks across the board right now. again cardano biggest gainer one of the biggest pullbacks pulling back 7.5%. all right. moving on to the treasury market. treasury yields. they continue to move lower after friday's ppe print coming in at the expected 2.6%. take a look at the benchmark coming in at 4.24. again, the high year to date that was about 4.8. so big moves to the downside when it comes to yields. and we look at gold right now also pulling back from its highs coming off two straight months of gains. right now we're looking at gold actually moving higher in the pre-market up 1% over the last month. moving higher about three quarters of 1% gold. we continue to see buying it actually hit an all time high last week. just

pulling back very slightly. you see the pullback. but again that is off of all time highs. and look at the energy markets. oil coming off its worst month since september. taking a look at the action right now in the morning wti the u.s. benchmark brant crude both of them pulling back about a half a percent. brant crude just a bit less natural gas also pulling back just over a half a percent. all right. that is your setup. let's now see how europe and asia are kicking off march trading. julianna tatelbaum live in our london newsroom with a look at that early action. julianna. good morning. >> frank. good morning. well, let me kick off with the action we saw in asia overnight where stocks have performed mixed as investors reacted to those geopolitical developments over the weekend. and that blowout in the oval office on friday. also, as markets prepared for the imposition of these fresh levies on china chinese goods. so here's the picture. you've got the nikkei 225 in japan, trading higher by about 1.7%, the hang seng in hong kong about 3/10 of a percent higher. a little bit of a pullback in the chinese markets. the composite down

about 12 basis points. that's the shanghai composite. now here in europe we last week saw the stoxx 600 the main benchmark record the 10th positive week in a row. so european equities continue to be well bid by the market. that outperformance versus the us continues. now this morning we have got green across the board. so investors shrugging off concerns on the back of that meeting in the oval office and turning their attention on spending in the european union and what that will mean for the economy and for stocks. so the xetra dax up more than 1% this morning. massive rally again in defense names. take a look at some of the big movers. european nations pledging to step up defense spending after that public breakdown in us ukraine relations on friday. european leaders will now meet again on thursday for an emergency defense focused summit in brussels so we could get some tangible, concrete conclusions out of that summit. you got hensoldt up a further 22% today, ryan. mattel up 10%. tala is up

more than 11%, leonardo up 10%. and these stocks have already gained tremendously this year. it's not the first time we're looking at double digit gains. so investors really throwing their weight behind this sector. >> all right giuliana thank you very much. our julianna tatelbaum live in our london newsroom. we're going to turn back to this morning's top story and wall street bracing for the latest wave of president trump's tariffs, including as much as 25% tariffs on canadian and mexican imports into the us and adding another 10% duty to chinese imports. though commerce secretary howard lutnick says the final tariff level for both mexico and canada will be decided by the president before they go into effect. tomorrow's tariff deadline is just the first in a series of trade shocks expected to hit the global economy, courtesy of the trump administration, including april 2nd deadline for tariffs on drugs, copper chips and more. the president also hinting at possible lumber tariffs in coming weeks, signing an executive order launching a national security investigation into the sector. the trump tariff wild card, forcing some

investors to search for perceived safety within the markets while abandoning some other, more risky assets. check out the performance or the outperformance, i should say, of consumer staples, financials and health care. year to date, staples are coming off their best month since august. compare that to crypto, the mag seven and the discretionary sector this year, and the rotation that appears to be pretty clear. discretionary seeing its worst month since 2022. with that, let's bring in fm investments president and chief investment officer alex morris. alex, good morning. good to see you. frank. good morning. thanks for having me back. i think we got to start off with the ax that we saw on friday. alex, i mean, why do you think the markets ended the day higher? we were just showing some of the moves a second ago. a lot of questions about the ukraine deal, a lot of talk between the us and also european officials. one, european officials saying it's time for a new leader of the free world. a lot of bold talk there. why do you think markets ended higher? >> well, i don't think. >> markets ended. >> higher because. >> the us may step aside. from its traditional leadership space. i think it was. >> just pretty standard market technicals. it was the last trading day of the month. there was cash that needed to be

invested. so most managers didn't. >> print that. >> going into. >> their, you know, quarterly or monthly reports. but also i. >> do think markets were. >> looking for. >> a sign of domestic strength. this is it. and this really commits. the president. >> to his policy, which. >> some of. >> those tariffs will. be good for. consumer stocks in. >> the us. >> will. >> be good for small. >> cap stocks. >> if it actually. >> does play out. >> it's also. >> pretty rare, though, that we're this close to a tariff deadline. >> and no. >> one seems to know exactly what's going to happen. with an administration fairly split on whether the outcome of those tariffs is inflationary. >> or not. >> for the american public. >> you know, alex, a lot of people have called for a broadening of the market or the rotation of other sectors. but this rotation, it seems to be more defensive. we're just talking about consumer staples having their best month in quite some time. what do you make of this rotation. the fact that it's also going to defensive sectors and also went to bonds, people seeming to be a little concerned about some of the volatility in the market. also obviously trade policies have an impact i would imagine. is this a good rotation and the fact that also that the sectors that

were rotating into they're seeing earnings estimates, revisions to the downside. >> you know, to some extent any rotation out of. >> what had been. just a. >> super concentration in the mag seven is a. positive thing. >> so we'll take that because statistically. >> it's healthy. but practically we agree there's some real risks to the downside here. >> and investors. are looking for a haven. >> and what i think. >> they're really. >> saying is inflation is coming right. >> the university of michigan report shows. 1 in 5. >> people think they'll be 10% levels of. >> inflation in the. >> coming six months. >> that's a frightening statistic. >> and with that, folks are. >> looking for. >> a haven in the storm. and you see that. particularly with the staples spending. >> but you know, now there are. >> alternatives that they really. >> need to look at. >> because it's the first time in a long time that folks. >> have. >> to look at. inflation not as transitory, not as fixing, but perhaps as something that's going. >> to increase and will be. >> very difficult to solve going forward. >> yeah. with that, you actually gave us two recommendations today. one is the b i l etf. that's a tips treasury treasury

inflation-protected securities etf. the other one longer term treasuries. alex morris thank you very much. great to see you. >> thank you. >> all right. we have a lot more to come here on worldwide exchange including citi's favorite fintech play. but first a cnbc interview with the ceo of one company that's helping to power the ai revolution and much more on the crypto pop. out of a busy week for the sector. and then later, the tariff ripple effect and the major industrial sector, the sector that's caught in the crosshairs. we have a very busy hour still ahead on worldwide exchange returns. >> if you're shopping for a home, realtor.com real compute tool lets you find homes close to work. >> school. >> or even grandma's house. >> don't all apps do that? >> not really. >> trust the number one app. real estate professionals trust. >> on. oh. >> when you finally decide to

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cleaner and enjoy a spotless house for $19. >> welcome back to worldwide exchange. shares are higher since earnings where the company beat on the top. and the bottom line also gave strong forward guidance. the nation's largest utility also raised capex spending to $38 billion between 2025 and 2028, a 10% increase over the prior guidance. the company said that money will be used to meet rising demand and grid improvements. exelon serves more than 10 million customers in pennsylvania, new jersey, delaware, maryland, washington, d.c. and illinois. joining us now in a first on cnbc conversation is calvin butler, ceo of exelon. calvin, good morning. thanks for joining us. >> hey, good morning, frank. thank you for having me. >> all right. so we're just showing the chart right there. strong investor reaction to your company. shares up just about 5% since earnings. i want to talk to you about what helped you beat expectations last quarter. and also what gave you the confidence to raise your capex. >> i think a couple of things. >> first and foremost. >> i. >> give credit to the 20,000 men and women of exelon. they show

up every day, and it starts with operational excellence. when you look at who excellence is, as you've just outlined, the service territories that we serve are four companies are in the top five or the most operationally reliable utilities in the country. so that's first and foremost. so we're meeting customers expectations. second, our jurisdictions are being spanned by growth in the ai data center area. chicago, illinois. as you talked about comed, it ranks in the top five in the united states for data center growth. and we're meeting that with reliable and cheaper electricity than most other jurisdictions. and then i would also say third is we're committed to doing what we say we're going to do. it's the third year in a row that we've met or exceeded our earnings guidance at the midpoint or better, since we separated into a pure t and d company. and i think the market is recognizing that. and you put that along with the growth, that 38 billion, that 10%, 80% of that

is being invested in transmission, that gives strong indicators that this company has a strong foundation moving forward. >> so, kevin, let's talk more about that data center demand. i know texas is not one of your markets, but last week we saw apple announce they're spending $500 billion to expand their server capacity and some other initiatives. in all fairness, when you're talking to companies, because i know you work with a lot of these big tech companies, what are they telling you about their needs when it comes to power and also data centers? >> yeah we do. we talk to them all. and i've already talked about illinois. we've got growth in pennsylvania. we've got growth in maryland. the key for them is reliable and resilient energy. and they're wanting to get hooked up quick. and that is something that we've really put the focus of the customer in the middle of that. so when you look at providing reliable energy with resilient energy and an ability to navigate the connection with them sooner rather than later. those are all good signs that they're going to look at your market for development. now it's very important to recognize that there's not been one data center built. i don't believe. one

across the united states in a state that has not provided tax incentives for them to come in and build out. and all of our jurisdictions are set to do that, and we're actively in conversations with them day in and day out. >> all right. so you keep talking about reliability when it comes to your service. how are you dealing with uncertainty when it comes to things like trade policy. obviously tariffs are expected to start up tomorrow. how does that impact your business, whether it be the import tariffs or the tariffs on things like steel and aluminum. >> yeah we. >> have done an analysis. it will impact our business from a cost perspective. but minimally we have done that analysis. and it's not something that's going to be significant. so you really talk about our supply chain. and we are managing that supply chain. because of our scale and size. we're able to do that a lot better than some others. and we've taken that in consideration. and we began the process of ensuring that we can move equipment around the standardization of equipment across our utilities. so if you have large growth occurring in

one of our markets, if we happen to have a piece of equipment in pennsylvania or maryland, we will move that equipment and that utility will pay their sister utility to get that done. and that is something that we can do because of our scale and size. and we've been really optimizing our portfolio for a while. >> so i just have to ask you, you raised your capex guidance. we're hearing about a lot of other companies and other business leaders saying some of these trade policies are leading to uncertainty and kind of putting them in wait and see mode, or they're holding off on doing different things or different initiatives, whether it be capex or hiring and things like that. what's given you the confidence going forward that you can continue to invest in the business despite some of the uncertainty from dc? >> yeah, the confidence comes from the demand growth that you referred to. when you talk about the data center boom that's taking place, and also the energy transformation that is occurring across the united states. it requires a strong and resilient grid. now you take that additional $3 billion we put in our capital plan. 80% of

that is geared towards the transmission part of our system, which is required for this energy transfer transformation to take place. you can't get to point b if you don't take care of the foundation of the grid first. this grid must be revolutionized and made more digitized, and we are putting in the money to get that done. >> all right, last question. the fed a lot of uncertainty about if or when we're going to get these fed cuts. how does that impact your business. and also how do you think it also impacts the attractiveness of your stock? a dividend is a big part of every utility company. >> yeah. in the earlier segment you had is that we're considered a staple. and we are focusing on affordability for our customers. so anytime you have a movement in interest rates or costs in general, it impacts the affordability of my customers. and i always take that first and foremost, because people need to be able to afford their energy. and we do a wonderful job at managing our costs. but anytime

the federal government steps in and raises costs of borrowing money or anything else, it impacts the overall affordability of people to live. and i recognize that. so we're doing our part. and that's the first step for us. >> all right. kevin butler, ceo of exline. great to see you. thank you very much for coming on worldwide exchange. >> thanks for having me, frank. >> all right. still on deck here on worldwide exchange. j.p. morgan lays out the real cost for consumers and investors ahead of president trump's tariff tuesday. j.p. morgan chair of global research joyce chair of global research joyce chang she's coming up [sfx: wind, rain and rolling thunder] with the vision to see what's possible and the grit to make it happen, morgan stanley can help create the future only you can see. [crowd cheers] [music out] roads and bridges? think of assured guarantees bond insurance as. >> your. >> your. >> guardrail ♪♪

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watching the price of bitcoin, ether and other major cryptocurrencies this morning. kind of seeing a pullback right now. bitcoin pulling back about 2%. but today's actions coming after a weekend surge in crypto prices. when president trump announced the creation of a us crypto strategic reserve naming for the first time the digital assets that will be part of that reserve are. mackenzie sigalos joins us now with much, much more on this story. looking at the charts there, big jumps despite the pullback this morning. matt good morning. good to see you. >> hey good. >> morning frank. >> so this. >> new national. >> crypto reserve. >> will be comprised. >> of. >> bitcoin, ethereum. and a. >> trio of smaller and more volatile tokens. solana the. >> ripple linked. xrp and cardano. >> now president trump. >> called. >> it a way to elevate. the crypto industry. after what he referred to as years. >> of corrupt attacks. >> during the biden administration. the announcement builds on a january executive order that directed a working. group to evaluate. >> a national.

>> digital asset stockpile. >> but this new language reserve, instead of stockpile, could signal that the us government is. >> considering active. >> accumulation of crypto assets rather than. >> just. >> holding seized tokens. now markets reacted instantly, bitcoin and ethereum both surging over. >> 10%, and. >> the smaller tokens included in the reserve. >> rallying as much. >> as 70%. >> now attention. >> turns to friday's white house. >> crypto summit. >> where investors will be looking for more details on how this reserve will be structured. whether this means actual government. buying and if the president plans. >> to. >> push this through without congressional approval. >> a lot of questions there. we'll get to that white house summit in just a second. but first, i want to talk you about the crypto market. so big spike we're just showing the charts and then a pullback this morning. crypto does trade around the clock. i want to ask you about the future though. what's the potential next catalyst when it comes to crypto i think if you're a crypto enthusiast you've got a lot of things you want. you've got a supportive president supportive policies. now this reserve what could what could be the next step? >> well, the question is whether or not this change in language.

does indeed indicate that there will be a. >> buying strategy involved. >> now you have senator cynthia. lummis of wyoming, who has been closely working with the trump team. she previously proposed. >> a plan. >> where the u.s. government would buy 1 million bitcoin over the. >> course of five years. >> hold on to. >> that stash for at least 20 years. so a current price is you're looking. >> at just. >> shy of $100 billion. >> buying strategy. >> of. >> bitcoin. and that. doesn't account for. >> appreciating price as the us government piles in. >> and that's really the catalyst. >> that a lot of people are waiting for. so they're. >> excited to. see the. >> president move forward on this announcement that he would indeed start this bitcoin reserve. but will he actually put resources. behind purchasing crypto tokens? >> we got to go. but i just want to we're showing the viewers right now. and you can see it in front of you aboard with the crypto stocks they're moving higher despite the fact that crypto is pulling back. generally don't they kind of trade lockstep. why are we seeing this divergence. >> well i think that what you're seeing on friday, this crypto summit that's being held, a lot of those those founders will be there alongside. david sacks, the new white house crypto and i czar. >> bo hines. >> who's convened this working. group of a lot. >> of these executives. >> they see.

>> this as a positive move. >> and so. that is why you're seeing. >> this divergence that they're very bullish on potentially a buying strategy coming to. >> a strategy up over 11%. i think robin hood was up about 8% or so. it was kind of showing it. mackenzie sigalos great to see you. great reporting as always. >> thank you. >> all right. coming up here on worldwide exchange, what warren buffett has to say on trade tariffs and the american consumer. we're going to hear a lot more from the oracle of omaha after this break. stay with us. >> totalenergies has been hunting. >> for the best entrepreneurs. >> across africa. >> to tackle. >> energy poverty. >> farmers are highly. >> dependent on rainfall, but water is scarce with drought. our solution is mobile solar containers for off grid farmers, which uses ai to make irrigation more efficient. being an entrepreneur is not an easy task. if you have to have faith that a door will open. ubuntu means unity. >> this is how we're going to fight climate change together. >> i the number. >> of public companies is. >> shrinking while the number. >> of private companies is

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>> we have the experience. >> of president. >> trump's first term. where the tariffs the did not affect prices. >> so i'm expecting inflation to. >> continue dropping. >> over the year. >> he sort of thinking about right now how exactly he wants to play with mexico and canada. and that is a fluid situation. there are going to be tariffs on tuesday on mexico and canada exactly what they are. we're going to leave that for the president and his team to negotiate. >> president trump's treasury and commerce secretaries this weekend making the case for the administration's tariffs just hours away from taking effect. those tariffs presenting new challenges for wall street as it kicks off a new trading month following a very volatile february. welcome to worldwide exchange i'm frank holland. coming up this half an hour. we have the latest on whether a last minute tariff deal if that could happen, the sectors at the center of this trade war and how investors, how they should position themselves around this new headwind from washington. but first, we begin with the markets, the dow, the s&p and

the nasdaq all finishing over a percent higher on friday, having their best day in a month or month or so actually. so quite a wild time. take a look. right now we're seeing the futures right now in the green across the board. the s&p up a fraction looking to open up about a quarter of a percent. the dow off of its highs. pulling back just a bit while we've been talking like i would open up about 30 points higher. similar story for the nasdaq. looking like it would open up just under a third of a percent higher. again futures pulling back just a bit over the last half an hour. investors are looking ahead to the president's tariff set to take effect tomorrow. now we're going to look at the etfs tracking the countries that are facing tariffs. remember it's a 10% additional tariff for china. that etf pulling back about a half a percent. muted moves when it comes to mexico and mexico and canada. half a percent upside move when it comes to india that in that etf the india moving up to the upside right now also some big moves in cryptocurrency. after president trump announced a strategic crypto reserve holding bitcoin, solana, xrp and more. taking a look right now you see big two day moves right here when it comes to those different assets. bitcoin up about 7.5% over that time. cardano up about 50% over

that time. but take a look right here. you can see all of them pulling back this morning seeing a bit of a pullback this morning. bitcoin down 2.25%. cardano pulling back very slightly compared to the upside move pulling back about 6%. solana down about 8%. similar story for xrp. coming up later today the ceo of strategy formerly known as microstrategy ceo michael saylor. he's going to be on cnbc later today with much more talking about cryptocurrency and more than likely that strategic crypto reserve. all right. moving on to treasury yields. they continue to move lower after friday's pce print came in. and at the expected 2.6%. looking at the benchmark right now at 4.25, again pulling back from its year to date high, pulling back roughly about 50 basis points from the highs we've seen in 2025. taking a look at gold. gold also pulling back from its highs coming off two straight months of gains. right now we're seeing gold up 1% right now over the last month moving about three quarters of a percent higher. so again gold pulling back this record high hit about here pulling back a bit but upside moves this morning. and

we take a look at the energy markets. oil coming off its worst month since back in september. this morning we continue to see oil pull back. wti crude the us benchmark pulling back more than a half a percent. brant crude also pulling back just over a third of a percent. natural gas essentially flat right now. we saw it pulling back earlier today. and that's your setup for the morning. all right. now we want to turn back to our top story. and that's wall street bracing for the president's tariffs that begin tomorrow. our megan casella joins us now with more on the state of play. megan good morning. good to see you. >> frank. good morning. >> it's going to be. >> a big day here. >> it's the final. >> countdown for tariffs. >> on canada, mexico. >> and china. >> as you laid out. >> and we've been expecting. >> 25% on mexico, 25% on canada, but. >> 10% on. >> canadian energy. and then. >> an additional 10%. >> on china. >> on. >> top, of course. >> of the. >> 10% from last month. >> all of. that set to take effect just. >> after midnight tonight. >> but negotiations. >> are ongoing. >> about all of this. >> and two developments. >> over the weekend. >> really highlight just how. >> fluid this situation is. >> the first we just heard in.

>> that sound. >> bite. >> you played, it was howard. >> lutnick, the commerce secretary, telling fox news yesterday that the exact rate of tariffs seems to. >> be a little bit up in. >> the air. >> he said while. >> there will be tariffs. taking effect tomorrow. >> exactly what they. >> are will be up to the president and his team to negotiate. so really, they're the first admission. >> that we might. >> not see the full 25% take effect right up front. >> and the second development was scott. >> bessent, the treasury secretary. >> he said that mexico is now. >> offering to raise its. >> tariff rates. >> against china to match. >> the united states. >> that's a. >> concession that he said would also be. >> nice to see from. >> canada as well. it wasn't. >> exactly clear whether that alone would be enough to avoid tariffs entirely, but it does show a potential new option that's. on the table. >> to try to satisfy the. trump administration here. >> and try to make. >> a. last minute deal. >> one last thing to flag here. trump also signed an executive order on. >> saturday that paves. >> the way sometime down the road for potential new tariffs on. all imports of lumber. he's launching an investigation into whether lumber imports. hurt

u.s. national security. and once that wraps up later this year, he. could choose to impose duties. it's the same way he imposed steel and aluminum tariffs in his first term. and it's. yet another friction with canada in particular. and another example of how the tariff talks will continue well past today's deadline. >> frank. >> all right, megan, thank you very much. our megan costello live in dc. all right. turning back to the markets. portfolio managers and consumers also becoming increasingly sensitive to president trump's tariff talk and the rising geopolitical tensions between the us and many of its allies, and possibly for good reason, at least according to warren buffett. speaking with cbs news yesterday. >> tariffs are actually we've. >> had. >> a lot of experience with them. they're an act of war to some degree. >> how do you think tariffs will impact inflation. >> over time? >> there are tacks. >> on on goods. i mean. >> you know. >> the tooth fairy doesn't pay them. i mean and. >> you always. >> have to just end then what. you always have to ask that

question in economics always say. and then what. prices will be higher ten years from now and 20 years from now and 30 years from now. >> all right. joining me now is joyce chang, chair of global research at jp morgan, and james pethokoukis, economic policy analyst at the american enterprise institute. he is also a cnbc contributor. good morning to both of you. joyce, let me start with you. you're here in studio. warren buffett having a bit of a chuckle, but it's certainly no laughing matter when it comes to tariffs and the markets. it seems like a lot of volatility we've seen in february is due to these tariffs and tariff uncertainty. first i want to start off with you're the head of global research for jp morgan. why did the markets and higher on friday. i know it wasn't a tariff discussion but a big blow up in the oval office seeming just to add to the geopolitical tension. what was the reason? >> i think there's. >> still expectations that the tariffs won't. fully come. into effect. could you have delays in mexico and canada? >> i mean, honestly, i think that the. >> real terrorists. >> to. >> watch are whether they. >> go ahead. >> with. steel and. >> aluminum on march 12th. >> so i think the market is. >> not yet. >> thinking that the. >> tariffs will necessarily.

>> come into effect. >> and i think of. >> russia, ukraine, there is. >> a sense. >> that. >> you know, this is something. >> that isn't. >> going to happen overnight. >> it's going. >> to. >> be an ongoing discussion. but it doesn't change the. >> fact that. >> the us. still the growth differential, the earning. >> differentials. >> that it has the. >> upper hand here. so i think the market hasn't priced. >> in the tariffs yet. >> they're thinking that russia, ukraine is something that's going to take more time. >> to play out. >> but a. critical minerals agreement. still is something that could be in the offing. and you're seeing that the tone has. >> changed from. >> zelinski after that meeting as well. >> that's the understatement of the year, joyce. the tone has changed. >> wow. >> jimmy, coming over to you. the tone has certainly changed. i want to kind of ask you the same question. seeing these kind of, i guess, explosive situations in the oval office, i'm not saying who's right or who's wrong, but there was certainly an explosion of what we saw on camera between zelensky, trump and vice president vance. why do you think investors seem to shrug it off towards the end of the day? >> you know. >> markets, markets will fluctuate. and i think there's a lot of hope that, you know,

eventually agreements will be signed, the war will de-escalate. you saw the same kind of hope coming into this year about tariffs that the president that these the president would actually push forward, you know, very, you know, targeted narrow tariffs that various countries could do things. so the terrorists didn't take place. but what all that creates together and of course the market, you know, wall street was wrong on that. it is this tremendous sense of uncertainty which just isn't a buzzword. it's a real thing. it freezes business. it delays hiring, delays, capital investment. also over the weekend, i noticed mark, mark zandi from moody's, he said the economy was. gagging on uncertainty. the wall street journal editorial page saying how dangerous uncertainty was to the president's agenda. so all this uncertainty is happening. it's a real thing. and the third problem is this is the core of the president's economic agenda is trade. and that's the thing causing uncertainty. and really

i think is a suppressant on the economy. >> all right. so just come back over to you. let's let's start off with what we know. we know. according to your research, the effective tariff rate for the us last year was about 2.3%. with all these tariffs where do you see it moving to and how do you see it impacting investor confidence and also business confidence. we just heard from the ceo of the nation's largest utility. he says they've done the research. it's going to raise costs by a bit. but at the same time they raise their capex spending. do you expect to continue to see that trend when it comes to other companies, when it comes to spending, hiring, and how do investors react to all this? >> look, tariffs. >> are an. >> adverse supply shock. >> it's bad for growth and it's bad for inflation. >> so if we. >> just. >> take the tariffs. >> that. >> are under discussion. >> now 25% on. >> mexico and canada, another 10%. >> for china. >> that we think. takes about 0.7%. >> off of gdp growth. just the arithmetic. of that and. >> adds about 1% to inflation. >> so you're looking at an effective tariff rate that could go to. 8 to 9%. but remember we're also talking about still an aluminum tariffs.

>> and on those tariffs no. >> exemptions have been announced. they're universal. >> and i. >> think that's what the market is looking for. the tariffs have been threatened for foreign policy. purposes initially. but now you're moving into specific products steel. >> aluminum copper. >> lumber as well and. >> using more of the traditional mechanisms. >> as well. so that will tell. >> whether it really is serious or not. right now everybody. >> is just waiting. >> on it. >> with the policy uncertainty rising. >> all right. speaking of policy uncertainty, right now we're showing the tariff timeline right now jimmy. so obviously tomorrow we could see those mexican, canadian and chinese tariffs. and then march 12th you have another date for the steel and aluminum. but april 1st that's kind of that's kind of interesting right there. that's the deadline for the federal review. in between now and then what are you expecting. what should investors be paying attention to try to get some insight into how the president's thinking, how are things going out of his way to continue to say, the president's going to have the final decision? >> yeah, he's not just saying. >> the president. >> have the final decision, but

he's. >> giving the sense. >> that. >> they don't know know exactly what that decision is. what should investors pay attention to? i don't know, the president's like truth social media. that seems to be pretty pretty important. this is really sort of a moment by moment thing. and again, which feeds into uncertainty. you know, joyce and i have just been mentioning like this, you know, the tariffs as, as a huge headwind. but, you know, the, the supposed tailwind, tax cuts and deregulation like that's still like a tomorrow thing. the tariffs are not just a today thing. they're sort of an hour by hour thing. and that's the problem. >> so you're saying that's the problem. so between now and april the 1st do you expect more volatility. because we just don't know. and as you said howard lutnick says he doesn't even really know. or do you expect the president to use this uncertainty, as we've often said sometimes he's you know, he's negotiating, sometimes he's trolling. do you expect him to use that to manipulate either investor sentiment, economic sentiment? i mean, global sentiment? i don't know what sentiment he's going for. >> all of the above. listen, what we're describing as sort of

as a problem, the president clearly doesn't think it's a problem. he thinks that sort of that uncertainty, you know, if you want to be stronger, you could say chaos is a negotiating tool. it's a leverage. it makes him unpredictable. and he thinks he can get what he wants. whether it's and we're not sure exactly what he wants. as joyce nicely said, are we talking about sort of foreign policy goals particular particular goals? are we talking about reducing trade surpluses, particular products. so the president views this as a strategy, and he views tariffs as a as the core of his economic policy. and those two things together mean we're going to be stuck in uncertainty city for a while. >> at least probably until april 1st. come back over to you. i have not seen your email inbox, but i can only imagine what's in there. a lot of people saying, well, what now? where do you put money to work at now? if you want to put money to work, what sectors are you feeling less confident about? and maybe you would tell investors to take some profit in if they have some profit or maybe just outflows period. >> well, consumer. >> discretionary i think is the

most vulnerable here. and then those. >> areas that are tied to china. e-commerce as well, because april 1st the focus is going to come back to us china. we're talking. about mexico and canada. this week. >> but april 1st is. >> when you have. >> a whole host of things. the 301, the 232. >> whether you look at permanent normal trade relations. >> coming on the table. >> so i think that you've had this big china equity market rally. >> that could really. >> be careful here, be careful here. that could be at risk. >> but consumer discretionary. i think those. >> that really don't have the pricing power are going to be. >> most affected here. >> now japan is one actually just kind of coming away from the us. that still. >> stands out. >> to us as having its own domestic story. you've got some pockets of emerging markets like argentina as well, that still have its own domestic story, which is, you know, not as subject to a lot of these global tensions. so. >> you know, we're sort. >> of neutral here right now on. us equities. you're not underweight because. you've still got a very wide earnings

and growth differential here. >> all right joyce chang jimmy pethokoukis we've got to leave the conversation there. great to see both of you. thank you for being here. thank you. all right. coming u later today. squawk box will have much more on president trump's tariffs. and white house senior trade adviser peter navarro. he joins at 8:40 a.m. eastern time interview you don't want to miss. all right. coming up here on worldwide exchange. more on the fallout over that tense sit down between president trump and zelensky, including the group of zelensky, including the group of stocks getting a big boost this 7 million us businesses rely on tiktok to compete. within a week of posting, i had over $25,000 in sales. i don't have a million dollars to put towards marketing and branding. tiktok was the way and it saved my company. we had a video do really good this week. sales were up 29%. about 80% of my business right now is from tiktok. small businesses thrive on tiktok. tiktok brings in so much foot traffic. i need tiktok to keep growing. we have so much more work to do.

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worldwide exchange. time now for your global briefing. britain's prime minister keir starmer says european leaders have agreed to create a ukraine peace plan to present to the trump administration. starmer's announcement comes after the meeting with the ukrainian president zelensky this weekend, following his tense sit down with president trump on friday. the prime minister says that europe must do the heavy lifting, but also must have strong support from the us. defense stocks in europe getting a big boost this morning on those developments. china's the global times is reporting that country is looking to target u.s. agriculture with retaliatory tariffs over president trump's tariff threats. china is the biggest market for u.s. agricultural products. the reported move comes after the president last week threatened china with an additional 10% tariff that set to take effect tomorrow. and bloomberg is reporting that prada is moving closer to a deal to buy versace from capri holdings. bloomberg says the two sides have agreed to a nearly $1.6 billion deal, adding that a deal could be finalized sometime this month. take a look at the

stocks this morning. we are seeing shares of capri move up just about 9.5% higher. prada shares up just about 3.5%. all right. coming up, the one word that every investor has to hear today in the stock pick that every investor needs to know. plus more on president trump's tariffs. the race by the american auto industry around them and what this could all mean if you're in the market for a new car. we'll be right back after this break. stay with us. >> with income products from brighthouse financial. >> you can. >> turn a. portion of your portfolio into guaranteed lifetime income. for whatever the occasion calls for. >> brighthouse financial build. >> for what's ahead. >> sure. >> vistaprint prints business cards. >> but we. >> also print. these and those. >> and engrave that. >> we print your brand on. >> everything so. >> customers can notice. >> you, remember. >> you, and fall in love with. >> you if you need it. >> we print it with 25%. >> off for new customers@vistaprint.com. >> if you're looking for the one, find the home with a short commute to work.

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taking effect. and the us auto industry has been one sector that's been racing to get ahead of what's expected to be higher prices. our phil lebeau joins us now with much more on this story. phil good morning. hi, frank. >> tomorrow will be. >> the day when the auto industry finds out just what the impact is going to be in terms of components, parts and final vehicles going back and forth across the borders to the north and to the south. about three quarters of the vehicles sold in this country are made in either the us, canada or mexico. >> the bulk. >> of the production is here in the united states, but there you see mexico at 16.2%, canada at 7.2%. and for the big three, because they have the most exposure here, talking about gm, ford and stellantis, what they've done as much as possible is they've tried to build their inventories, for example, bring vehicles across the border if possible, when they are finished, or stockpile components if possible, at

plants that are north or south of the border. ford is a good example. here you take a look at their mexican production. it's 15% of their u.s. sales, so they're not as exposed as gm and stellantis yet. they've got some very popular vehicles that are built. >> in mexico. >> you're talking about the bronco sport. you're talking about the maverick, a very popular midsize pickup truck. what's going to happen if these tariffs kick in? and by the way, it's not just the big three. take a look at toyota. 8% of its u.s. sales come from plants that are here in in north america and in mexico in particular. and then they've got a number of vehicles that are built up in canada. the rav4, one of the most popular vehicles in this country. >> it's built. >> in canada. so for toyota, the big question is what will be the final impact on prices? nobody's quite sure at this point, frank, how much of this will be passed along to consumers, how much the automakers and auto suppliers will say, let's wait it out a

week or two. we're not immediately going to pass along tariffs if they're put into effect. so i would say the next month to month and a half is going to be the crucial point where the automakers and suppliers have to make a decision in terms of how much they can pass along. all right, phil, so many questions for you. i mean, cars are such a big part of all of our lives and also the economy. first, i want to start off with what's the potential impact of retaliatory tariffs. so those come. and then second what does this do for new vehicle releases? i mean ford actually delayed the next generation of its f-150 gasoline hybrid. are we going to see similar things like that, that more delays of product rollouts and just new models and things like that that seem to really excite consumers? >> yeah. >> a couple of things on the ford decision. keep in mind that ford is also taking a look at its capital allocation. so it's not entirely tariff related. clearly tariffs play a role into their decisions in terms of what vehicles go into production, how long they may wait, etc. if there are retaliatory tariffs, frank, you're going to see it

depends if they stick. if we see these go for a month or two. yeah. it's going to drive up costs especially for the suppliers. they don't have the ability as much ability as the final vehicle assembly manufacturers to move production. i mean they are locked in if they have a plant in canada, in mexico, and they've got to ship back and forth across the border, not a lot. they can do. very little they can do actually. phil lebeau, great reporting as always, phil, and always good to see you. thank you very much. all right. coming up here on worldwide exchange where our next guest calls this next stop part of a broader underappreciated theme within the markets. we're going to reveal our mystery chart. you can see it's up over 15% year to date right after this break. stay with us. >> with allegra. >> i hope. >> you can stop being sneezy without feeling sleepy. get 0% brain interference for fast non-drowsy allergy relief with allegra. it's a no brainer. see disney's snow white, march 21st. rated pg.

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have your cake and eat it, too. don't settle for t-mobile or verizon 5g home internet. get super fast xfinity internet you don't have to share. forty's going to be my year. >> to support women's history month. when you join the sharks and shop the tank. >> my business is. >> scan the code, shop the tank tomorrow nine eastern c bbc. >> some people took. >> deep seek to mean. >> actually that you need less.

>> compute from a demand perspective. >> deep seek was fantastic. >> it opened sourced. >> a reasoning model that's absolutely. >> world class. >> ai has become better if you believe every customer experience is going to be reinvented by generative ai, then you're going to be building a lot of generative ai apps. >> if you say i, i don't think there's going to be. >> deflationary in the short run. it may very well be deflationary. you know, after 3 or 4 years. but most of us are now we're spending more money on, not less. >> welcome back to worldwide exchange wall street, kicking off a new trading month after jumping friday to close out a very turbulent february. and we're just also a few hours away from those trump tariffs taking hold. let's now bring in drew pettit, director and u.s. equity strategist at citi. drew, good morning. good to see you. >> hey good. >> morning frank. >> i got to start with the same question i've been asking everybody else. we're looking at the futures there. higher. yes. not yesterday friday after the markets they dipped after that very explosive press conference between the president and the president of ukraine. and then they closed higher. give us a

sense. why do you think that happened? >> look. >> it's. >> it's been. >> a. >> messy week. >> so it's. >> all. >> in context. of we. >> sold off. >> really aggressively. >> for kind. >> of four straight days. >> right. and a lot of the. >> higher momentum stocks. >> that. >> really good. >> earnings momentum stocks. >> really got hammered to. >> start. >> the week off. >> so a little bit. >> of. >> a relief. rally into the end of the week. >> you know off. >> of a. >> sell off over the past few. >> days i. >> think we just need some. context here. >> look we're. >> probably still in a bull market. >> we're just acutely sensitive to news. >> flow right now. >> because we're fully valued. >> so good fundamental stories. >> i think people just. >> kind of stepped. >> in to buy it. you know, just. >> after a few days of selling pressure. >> all right. so with that in mind, you said you think we're still in a cyclical bull market. what's your word of the day? >> so it's forest. >> so it's full context here. >> don't miss the forest for the trees. look we're talking about uncertainty. >> it's probably. hard to count the. >> number of times your. >> previous guests have. >> said uncertainty.

>> that relates to the consumer taxes, tariffs. >> you know. >> go down the line. the thing is fundamentals have been so strong. >> we see. >> a lot of efficiency gains. q4 was. >> probably one of the best earnings seasons we've had on record. and even with all of that uncertainty, we just kind of had marginal cuts to 2025 estimates. so fundamentals still really strong. that's still really good for stocks medium term. >> although we are seeing a big bounce back. a lot of stocks that were selling off last month last week kind of bouncing back i was looking at palantir shares up over 2% right now. with that in mind i want to get to your pick drew. what is your pick and why? >> so it's pfizer so high level. this payments and fintech company is in a theme that is just completely underappreciated. so fintech to us screens as a really attractive growth theme. it's been a really strong performer for the last two years, but the theme everyone wants to talk about is ai. so when you really

get into this, you have growth at a reasonable price for this stock. we think the market in the next three years is pricing in like 13 bucks of cash flow. analysts think we're probably going to get something more like 14%. this company has great operating leverage, really good cash conversion conversion and should actually expand margins by 125 basis points this year. so put that all together. that's another really good fundamental story in this market we think you can buy into. >> all right. so you think this is garp. and that's what everybody's looking for especially right now with the market a bit frothy. but on the other side of the coin, some people are looking at alternatives outside of equities. we had an earlier guest that was suggesting tips suggesting tips, treasury inflation protected securities. do you think right now is the time to invest in bonds, specifically those type of bonds? >> so honestly, i think you have a little bit more of a neutral setup. how i kind of spin this frame for our equity seat is if you want to buy equities right now, you need to see revisions move higher. so that's 25 in the

outyear numbers. if those move higher your chances for equities to continue to outperform bonds is relatively high. if we get cuts to the outyear numbers then you probably want to be, you know, a treasury buyer at this point. but for us not to. >> leave the. >> conversation, some of the. >> thank you. >> so much. >> drew pettit from citi, we really appreciate your time looking at futures there higher across the board. that does it for us. squawk box starts right now. >> good morning. cryptocurrency spiking over the weekend on an announcement from president trump about a us strategic reserve. we're going to speak with fundstrat's. >> tom lee. >> in just a few minutes. great day for him and not just for bitcoin. we'll talk about obviously the markets equity markets. the countdown to tariffs is on the us expected to hit mexico, canada. and china this week. warren buffett. >> is now. >> weighing in. >> and honora takes the top prize at the oscars. the movie

headlining a big. night for independent film makers. >> it's monday. >> march 3rd, 2025, and squawk box begins. >> right now. >> ooh. >> good morning and welcome. to squawk. >> box here. on cnbc. we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm melissa lee along with joe kernen. becky and andrew are off today. let's take a look at us equity. >> futures because. >> we are shaping up for a higher open a real continuation of the late day rally that we saw on friday in which the major indices closed. >> off. >> just off the session highs. >> on. >> friday, but only made a dent in that big sell off that we saw on thursday. the s&p looking to add 16.5 at the open. the dow looking to be up by 75. the nasdaq looking to be higher by 75 as well. we should mention the three major averages coming off a negative month. it is a new month today. the s&p fell about 1.4% in february. the nasdaq meantime, was down 4%.