>> it's monday. >> march 3rd, 2025, and squawk box begins. >> right now. >> ooh. >> good morning and welcome. to squawk. >> box here. on cnbc. we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm melissa lee along with joe kernen. becky and andrew are off today. let's take a look at us equity. >> futures because. >> we are shaping up for a higher open a real continuation of the late day rally that we saw on friday in which the major indices closed. >> off. >> just off the session highs. >> on. >> friday, but only made a dent in that big sell off that we saw on thursday. the s&p looking to add 16.5 at the open. the dow looking to be up by 75. the nasdaq looking to be higher by 75 as well. we should mention the three major averages coming off a negative month. it is a new month today. the s&p fell about 1.4% in february. the nasdaq meantime, was down 4%. and that was its worst month

since last april. as for treasury yields, we're seeing some stability there 4.25% on the ten year yield. >> the two. >> year at 4.03%. >> but the all. >> time high on. the s&p was last month, february. >> a couple of weeks ago or something. >> friday. >> the market had every reason in the world to go. >> down on friday. >> and as we see. >> many times. >> if everybody is on the same side, there's. >> some short. >> covering and it looked like it could. >> have gone down. >> it didn't really. i was surprised to see it up 600 at the close. >> and the nasdaq up 300. >> it looked like it was going. >> to be another. >> one of. those days where, you know, valuations are high. the growth seems to be. slowing inflation. >> you can't. >> you can't tariffs. >> you can't. >> find a single reason to be bullish right now. which that's why it really didn't surprise me. the market snapped. back i still think. people are set up. it's just too much of a slam dunk that we're going lower. trump's policies doge you know that that might be you know,

that may cause a slowdown because the fed the federal government employs so many, its biggest employer in the world, i think walmart. >> or i'm sorry. >> in the united states. walmart might be closed. so many. >> reasons to. >> be negative. and wouldn't you know it, a snapback at this point. what's the s&p down 3%. >> from from the high. >> at. >> the most. >> about 3%. people that want to you know, there are people, half the country that really wants trump to fail. >> or wants. >> wants the markets to. >> go down. >> and they already i have i on twitter. >> you think so? you think people aren't on twitter. >> they're already interested. >> they don't want their own portfolios to go down. >> but on twitter, they're already telling me this is what you this is what's happening because the markets are they're already taking a victory lap. >> on the market. >> being lower, and it hasn't happened yet. >> there are concerns though there. i mean, the data has been you know. >> but but what. yeah. what about deregulation. >> what about. >> you know, corporate taxes aren't going to go up long term.

even doge. >> long term. >> you could argue that. >> it right now you know what americans care about egg prices. >> egg prices. >> right. they care about. pric. chicken. they care about. >> well, yeah. >> that's avian flu. but that that just sort of underscores the fear that consumers have the inflation expectations in a. >> year. >> are higher. >> journal has it. >> right here are worried. >> trump at this. >> point. >> has not addressed rising. >> prices but and bringing prices down i don't that's deflation. >> i mean. >> we want at this point we have we've had you know. >> cpi slowing inflation. how about slowing or slowing slowing. >> inflation because it hasn't for the last 3 or 4 months. it's sort of even ticked up a little. i was surprised at this. this made the. >> ten point. >> melissa it might be a slow news day. >> mont. >> did you. see mondelez, a maker of glow in the dark confections? >> oh, i didn't know that. >> yeah. plans to begin selling at least two of those online and in stores. >> that's above. >> the fold. >> by the way. it's above. >> the fold.

>> do you, do you would you buy those? >> do you know what does it do to your internals? >> i just. >> you're consuming something that's. >> in the dark. >> to have a cupcake that you turn the lights off and you can see it, you can find it. if we had a power, if we had a power outage, you could find your cupcakes. bitcoin this morning. take a quick look. it got as low. it was low 80s i. >> think was. >> i even saw. >> maybe a 78%. >> at one point. >> i think. >> maybe it. >> got all the way down there. and after trump came out. >> with those comments. >> there. >> was a big rally back almost to 95. his social, he wrote. on trump's social about a us crypto reserve and an initial post. trump said the reserve will include the ripple associated xrp, as well as solana and cardano. the sorkin coin? apparently not. >> not in the reserve. >> not going to be actually in. >> the reserve. >> it's not here to not here to make that that pitch. he followed that up. >> the president. >> did by. saying that obviously bitcoin and ether will be at the

heart of the reserve. and bitcoin rose 10% to near 95,000. after that, after it did fall under 80,000 last week, ether. gained 13%. >> cardano's coin jumped more. >> than 60%. katie stockton said. 78 was was an objective. if it got below. >> for bitcoin. >> i think 89. yeah, this. this friday, president trump is scheduled to host the first white house crypto summit. >> it is really cardano and solana. >> that was a surprise. >> partly. >> that's why. it was. >> a surprise. >> to be included in the reserve. that's why you saw the biggest jumps in those two coins. >> are those coins? you know, they call some of them. >> no they're not. no. >> where do you i mean, how far down do you go? i don't know what they do. i know bitcoin a little. >> i would say i mean i don't know. this is off the top of my head. >> i shouldn't say. >> that i was at the top five. >> how many coins are there. >> oh i mean. >> so there are plenty of those

other types. >> oh yeah. yeah. of the aforementioned coin. >> yeah. it's a dog. it's a dog. >> not solana and cardano. >> is. >> a dog. yeah. yes, it's a dog. it's a dog. >> you can say that in westminster. they say it again and again and again. john. john o'hurley, you've seen that right, mr. >> peter, did you take your cues from peter dog show? ukraine's president volodymyr zelensky says he thinks he'll be able to salvage his relationship with the united states following friday's contentious oval office meeting with president trump and vice president pence. after a meeting with european leaders yesterday in london, zelensky. >> told reporters. >> he was still willing to sign a deal granting the u.s. access to ukraine's critical minerals. but he said he thinks future discussions between the u.s. and ukraine. >> should happen. >> behind closed doors. this follows. friday's blow up in the oval office, in which trump and vance said zelensky hadn't expressed enough gratitude for u.s. support of his country. european leaders voiced. >> support for. >> lensky for zelensky following that meeting yesterday, prime minister. the british prime minister announced billions of dollars in support for ukraine

and european defense stocks jumping overnight after eu leaders discussed boosting military spending. analyst at j.p. morgan upgrading the price targets on germany's rheinmetall and britain's bae systems earlier this morning. you see those stocks surging and the clock, of course, is ticking on new tariffs from the white house aimed at america's biggest trading partners. megan costello joins us now with the very latest. good morning megan. >> melissa good morning. so we've been expecting these tariffs of 25% on mexico, 25% on canada but 10% on canadian energy. and then that additional 10% on china all set to take effect just after midnight tonight. but negotiations are ongoing to try to reach a deal. and to illustrate just how in-flux things are for the first time yesterday, we heard commerce secretary howard lutnick suggest that tariffs could potentially take effect at maybe a lower rate. here's what he said. >> they have done a lot. so he's sort of thinking about right now how exactly he wants to play with mexico. >> and canada. >> and that is a fluid

situation. there are going to be tariffs on tuesday on mexico and canada, exactly what they are. we're going to leave that for the president and his team to negotiate. >> what we still don't know guys, is. >> what. >> exactly canada or mexico could do to convince the president to pause or lower those tariffs? both countries have taken some steps to shore up their border security, but treasury secretary scott bessent also over the weekend suggested that the countries could raise their own tariffs against china to match the us's rate. both sides say that they're open to discussing that idea. so that's just one more thing to watch today as we move toward this deadline and as both countries race to try to make a deal. guys. >> it's not just. >> mexico and canada, of course. i mean, china could be facing an additional 10% tariff on its goods. and this the day before the national people's congress meets in beijing. megan, what sort of retaliatory measures could we be facing there? >> we saw what they did last time. they were immediately putting tariffs on some goods,

limiting some exports of critical minerals. they've started blacklisting some american companies, investigating companies like nvidia. so it looks like it's not going to be just tariffs. but that's one place to start. they're sort of broadening some of their retaliation even as overall it's more measured. and one of the things i found most fascinating through the first couple of months of this administration is we know it's been very public. the discussions that are ongoing with canada and mexico, but there really hasn't been the same level of negotiation with china. president trump said a month ago when he put those first 10% tariffs on that, he was set to talk with president xi. he thought within 24 to 48 hours that kind of went away. that call never happened. and as of last week when i was talking with white house officials, they weren't tracking a call then. so it doesn't exactly garner a lot of hope that a deal could be reached. and we have to wonder if there's another 10%. now, how much further could this go? >> yeah. megan. thank you, megan costello. and later on, we'll be talking to the senior white house trade adviser, peter navarro. that's at 8:40 a.m. eastern time. >> warren buffett weighing in.

>> on u.s. tariffs. >> in an interview with cbs's norah o'donnell. the berkshire hathaway ceo said that. they could. >> trigger inflation and hurt consumers. >> tariffs are. >> actually we've had a lot of experience with them. they're an act of war to some degree. >> how do you think tariffs will impact inflation. >> over time? >> there are attacks. >> on on goods. i mean, you. know the tooth fairy doesn't pay them. i mean, and you always have to just end then what. you always have to ask that question in economics always say. and then what. prices will be higher ten years from now and 20 years from now and 30 years from now. >> and buffett wouldn't directly comment. on the state of the economy. >> saying, i really can't. despite it. being the most interesting. >> subject in the world. >> coming up, fundstrat's tom lee will join us on the lackluster market performance in february, what we should expect in march. and bitcoin's weekend rally. stay tuned. you're

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>> learn more at jones road, beauty.com. >> the futures. >> on the first trading day of. march are. in the green here so far. let's bring in tom lee, fundstrat. co-founder managing partner. and fundstrat capital cio. >> and i. >> can i can just see you. this is tom. playing out exactly as

you said choppy. you said exactly this. you said choppy. for how long? but then the s&p again starts moving. and this is not, i don't. >> think. >> an obvious. >> or a logical conclusion. >> to have right now. >> with all the bad news. >> that we're. >> hearing about these policies. everybody thinks the market is headed lower. >> yes. but instead we could be bottoming maybe this week. >> and this is the choppiness you were talking about. and. >> you know, i think. >> you use a combination of. >> of fundamentals and technicals. obviously. >> to get things right. >> and the reason. >> for the choppiness was. going to. >> be the first hundred. >> days of this firehose. >> of executive. >> orders and. everything else. >> yeah. that's right. it's kind of weighing on investors minds. we're seeing it in the surveys and ceos. >> because the tariffs and doge. >> are you know, the doge is creating austerity. >> tariffs are creating uncertainty. >> businesses are maybe sort of sitting on their hands. this is why i think markets have been sort of sinking and momentum has

done. >> so poorly. >> but to me friday was a good day because, you know, it was a bad news headline. but markets. actually rallied. >> yeah. world war three is usually not a good a good headline. yes. >> for financial. >> markets or a continuation of a very expensive, you know, guns and butter using guns or using weapons and depleting them and having to rebuild them and everything else might be good, i guess. for the economy. it doesn't seem like. >> a great thing. >> i'd rather be spending it on ai or something. >> like that, wouldn't you? >> yeah, yeah. i think, or even rebuilding parts of the, you know, the us. >> right. exactly. so from here on out, you think we bottomed. have we seen the lows already because it didn't get worse than what do we get 5% on the s&p as far as the drawdown. >> well i think. investors are going to be kind of watching out of the corner of their eye because friday is the jobs report. last week, consumption kind of raised concerns that

maybe we're slipping into. >> a slower or downshift in speed. >> so if the jobs report is really weak, there could be some panic. >> i would think that it would be. >> i mean, you know. >> we know about these crack addicts. >> in the. >> in the equity pit. >> they want. >> more rate cuts. i would, i would if it's not too bad, just soft a little bit. and it brings back the prospect of. >> more than 1. >> or 2 rate cuts. i could see the market. >> rally on that. >> yes. >> that's right. i think. >> if the jobs report. >> is bad and maybe we initially panic like even that day, then everyone's going to rethink and realize not only is the fed put back because the fed now will need to cut, but. >> i think that. >> some of the things that look like the white house wants to slow the economy. they don't want to get to stall speed. >> so then. >> the white house, i think the. trump put comes back. so i think it helps markets. >> isn't the. >> bar very high. >> though for fed rate cuts to. >> be back on the table? i mean let's say we do have a softer jobs report. i mean, the fed and many fed officials have said that the tariff issue they would look through. and so even if

tariffs put grit in the economy and we have a softer sort of economic backdrop, that's that may still not be enough for the fed to do anything. so that fed put may not be worth much. >> well i think it just has to. >> depends on what the job. >> number looks like. you know the fed. >> has not. worried about the labor. >> market being inflationary. but they would. certainly worry if unemployment is picking up or if we have a negative jobs report, i don't think it's negative. but something, you know, it could be well under 100,000. if it is, i think the fed would actually have to get off their. >> hawkish pause. >> what is the fundamental and the technical backdrop for bottoming happening this coming week? >> well, you know, i think the best way to define a bottom and tom demarco has mentioned this before is stocks. >> rise on bad news. >> and so friday was maybe the first sign of bad news. >> the market's bottoming. >> but i. >> know our. >> technician mark newton doesn't. >> think we're there yet. >> he wants to see more signs of exhaustion. but we've. seen sentiment turn negative. >> so yeah.

>> maybe friday you know but it could have already bottomed too. >> do you think that president trump who does measure success through stock markets. how long do you what type of patience. >> do you. >> think he has with. >> if there. >> was a. >> weak market to where he might. i don't know, tone things down, whether. it's tariffs or doge or. >> you. doesn't need to be reelected, right. >> yes. >> would he. >> have more staying. power and. >> would he be able to. >> withstand more downside in the. markets this time around, do. >> you think? >> i think downside. >> of markets. is something that they'll tolerate because. >> they do want lower. >> interest rates. >> and sometimes that does require some pain. but i think if the. economy gets to stall speed, the white house will have to rethink because, you know, that's playing with a. recession dynamic and it's once a recession happens. we know that fiscal stimulus has to come back, and then we have to get expansionary. so it reverses a lot of the things that the white

house is trying to do. >> even aside from these macro sort of outlooks. how about the i trade? i mean we've we've certainly seen signs of weakening some skepticism there, especially surrounding nvidia which hasn't filled in that pre deep gap that it created. where does that stand. how important is that for this next move forward for the bottoming process? >> i mean i think. >> technology is still important for the next few years. you know in our sector weightings this year it's number three. so financials industrials first and second. but i think it's just digesting a lot of the prodigious gains the last two years. but i don't think ai spending is really going to weaken. i know investors have a lot of good news baked in. >> so the market if it does. resume a move higher, you. >> think it's. >> the same leadership. >> or there have been. some there has been some. >> rotation away from. >> some of. >> the big seven. >> and financials. >> have. >> looked strong. >> and will it look. >> different or or. >> the winners come back with. >> a vengeance.

>> yeah i mean. the in january. >> the. >> 1st let's say five five weeks or so that leadership was different because it was a lot more tech outside of the big seven. it was financials and it was some mid and small caps. i think once we're through this rough patch, that's the kind of leadership we think. >> will you want it to make some i don't know. >> why we told you people. >> you're going to talk about bitcoin. but now that we did. >> you do need to talk about it. >> i mean it's. >> come. >> back a little bit. >> what did you. >> attribute the. >> the move down. >> below 80 to. >> just that. it's bitcoin. what do. >> you want. >> yes it i would say what's interesting is bitcoin has not had. negative headlines. >> in february. >> but it was down. but i know our technician mark. >> newton had talked about this being a cyclical downturn. >> in bitcoin. >> through the. >> end of march. so he was. >> talking mid. >> january getting down to 62. the weekend. >> 105 to 62. that's just bitcoin. >> yeah it's. >> a tick. do the math though.

it's like yeah. >> in a month. >> 105 to 62. >> yeah that's a test of. >> the hurdles. >> people that. >> buy at 105. yeah. >> but as you know bitcoin makes all of its gains in ten days. so if people sort of try. >> to. >> time this they're going to. >> miss out on. >> a chance for bitcoin to go back to its highs. >> and by the end at. >> some. >> point in this year you think. >> it gets because. >> last year you thought it might get. >> to 150 or even higher, right? >> yeah. i think it's going to do better than 150 this year. >> you do? yeah us dollar. >> yes. >> what. >> 150 hungarian foreign. yeah i mean i don't know, something. >> that's a lot less than $150,000. that's a it's a lot better. >> than. >> a lot higher than 150. >> that's right. because it's. >> becoming more widely held. yeah. you know citadel. citadel starts trading. it starts to have more broad acceptance. >> okay. >> tom lee, thanks. >> thank you. don't be a stranger. >> you're not. >> but come back again. thank you. >> coming up, tesla targeted by protesters upset with ceo elon musk's government cost cutting drive. details on this past

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they deal with the small stuff that bogs you down. agents like secret agents? you know... i once played a secret agent. - oh... - oh i miss that one. i heard you were great. i was great. to the strategy and continue to invest and stay long term. >> go to cnbc.com. join jim. >> tesla coming off a 27% stock drop in february. the decline would have been deeper, but tesla gained about 4% on friday amid the broader stock rally. some of the negativity surrounding the stock has been attributed to anger over elon musk's role in trying to cut government spending, as well as investor fears that he's not focusing enough on his companies. over the weekend, demonstrators protested musk and his doge spending cut initiative. outside tesla stores across the country, nine people

were arrested during a protest outside a dealership in new york. >> coming up, the trump. administration looking at lumber. >> as the. >> next. potential tariff target. >> we'll get a report. >> on what that could mean for the nation's homebuilders. >> executive edge is sponsored >> executive edge is sponsored by at&t business. next level at&t has a new guarantee. because most things in business are not guaranteed. like a distraction-free work environment. -yeah,i'll circle back around. -get those steps in, kevin. your coworkers keeping things confidential. [phone ringing] oh, she's spilling all the tea. ♪♪ or office etiquette. yeah, that's not guaranteed. i know you can see me! you know what at&t guarantees? connectivity you depend on, the deals you want, and the service you deserve. can i get that logo bigger? or we'll make it right. that's the at&t guarantee.

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>> try now for free. visit otter.ai. >> or download the app. >> in a reuters report, says nvidia and. >> broadcom are. >> testing chips. >> on intel's. >> manufacturing process. it's an indication that the companies are moving closer to determining whether they will commit hundreds. >> of millions of dollars in manufacturing contracts to intel. amd is also. >> evaluating intel's manufacturing process. >> but it isn't clear if it is sent test chips through the factory. meantime, intel is delaying. >> the opening of a chip. >> plant in ohio. >> the company. says it won't. complete construction. >> on the first. plant until. >> 2030, and the second. >> plant factory will likely be finished. >> in 2031. >> the company initially. >> planned to begin operations.

>> at the first plant. >> by 2026. that's not even. >> close, right? but it's signs of, i mean, signs. i mean, it seems to be the government picking. winners and losers worst to less worse for this story to get better. and that's what's happened over the past, you know, year to date or so. an executive memorandum over the weekend directs the commerce secretary to start a national security investigation into u.s. lumber imports under an existing trade law, which president trump already used to impose tariffs on global steel and aluminum. this is a 25% tariff on canadian goods. it's slated to go into effect tonight. what will that mean for u.s. homebuilders and for buyers? diana olick joins us now with more. diana. >> well, melissa, the. >> majority of lumber. >> imports to the us. >> come from canada. >> and there. >> is already a. >> 14.5% dumping tax on canadian lumber. the 25% tariff potentially going into effect tonight would be. >> on top of that. >> now, the president. >> also ordered increased. >> domestic lumber production.

through a streamlining of regulatory and permitting processes. >> the leading builders of. >> america, which. >> is the trade group for the big public builders. applauded that, as. >> did the nahb. >> which represents small to. midsize builders. but the nbs chief economist, fresh from the industry's. annual builder show, said builders told him the tariffs could increase builder costs anywhere from 7500. >> to. >> $10,000 per home. now, the nahb last year estimated. that every $1,000. increase in the. >> median price of. >> a new home would. price an additional 106,000 buyers. out of the market. paul jen psaki of. forest economic advisors estimates that about two thirds. >> of a tariff. would be absorbed by the. >> consumer and one. >> third by the importer in the first year of. that tariff. ramping up domestic. >> production. >> he said, can take up to three years to build. multiple mills. and he said we don't. >> have enough loggers. truckers or equipment right now. >> now the. >> coo of new york. >> state based. sherwood lumber. >> told us in. >> the short term, it's. >> going to be very.

>> volatile from a. >> pricing perspective. >> as for increasing. >> production, he said that won't be a flip of a switch. you're taking a. 40 year supply chain and trying to switch overnight. >> that's hard. >> melissa bigger. >> picture diana, is that builders and buyers face all sorts of costs potentially going up because of other tariffs and other things like faucets or appliances, which mainly come from mexico. >> yeah. >> i mean, appliances. >> come from china and mexico. you're seeing aluminum. and gypsum, that's all. >> your wallboard. >> that comes. >> from mexico. >> as well. so if you see tariffs on that you're looking at. >> increased costs for builders. >> and they're going to trickle. >> that down to buyers. >> of course. you already have home. prices for. >> new homes very. >> high. >> right now. you also have a. >> very high. >> supply of new homes. now, experts would say that a nine month supply in the. >> new home. >> market, offset. >> by a very low supply in the existing. >> home market, is okay for now. >> but if you. >> start to see that inventory get really high and more buyers priced out, that's going. >> to be. >> a problem for builders holding on. >> to all those homes.

>> all right. >> diana, thank you. diana olick. >> coming up. >> much more on. >> the. >> potential impact. >> of the tariffs, as. >> well as the doj's effort. and gop budget negotiations. stifel's chief washington policy strategist is going to join us. and later, we're going to speak with. >> white house senior trade. adviser peter navarro. >> and a reminder, you get the best. >> of squawk box. >> in our daily podcast. follow squawk bot on your favorite podcast app. >> and listen anytime we're coming right back. >> an important. >> day is coming. >> for every american with money in the markets, and it. >> will be here sooner than. >> you think. >> i predict. >> this stock bull market will end with. >> an epic crash. >> and i want. >> to show you the. >> exact month i believe it's.

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indicator. >> yet again. >> to detail why there's a 90% chance the markets will do well in 2025, backed by historical data. before crashing in 2026. look, if you have money in the markets, you must know two critical things right now. first, what to own in 2025. as the market. continues higher. >> and second. >> exactly when the markets are likely to crash in 2026. i put. >> together a free. >> presentation that explains everything, including the exact months stocks are most likely to crash next year. you can watch my new presentation free of charge. to learn more, visit the charge. to learn more, visit the website below. you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean, not spreadsheets. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job on indeed, candidates can find it easier. so you can hire easier. visit indeed.com/hire

took. >> deep seek to. >> mean actually that you need. >> less compute. >> from a demand perspective. deep seek was fantastic. it opened. sourced the reasoning model. that's absolutely world class. ai has become better if you believe every customer experience is going to be reinvented by generative ai, and you're going to be building a lot of generative ai apps. >> even if. >> you say i, i don't think they're going. >> to be deflationary in the short run. >> it may very well. >> be deflationary. >> you know, after 3 or 4 years. but most. >> of us for now, we're spending more money on it, not less. >> good morning and welcome back to squawk box live from. >> the. >> nasdaq market site in. >> times square. checking the. >> futures continue to see. >> a continuation. of that. >> pretty good market. >> action that we saw on friday. >> with a lot of bad. >> i mean. >> a multitude of. >> tariffs coming up. >> the there's a. >> zelensky. >> meeting all those things. >> that have. >> i'll take a look. >> at.

>> treasuries which i don't know. >> pick your poison. >> it's good or bad. >> that rates have come down so much. it's good for a lot of things. >> but maybe it indicates. >> not so great things about friday's jobs number. >> or consumer. sentiment or business sentiment. >> shares of. >> chinese bubble tea restaurant mishui. >> jumped more than. 47% in. >> their public debut. >> in hong. kong overnight. the chain sells ice cream and. >> sugary drinks. >> for under a dollar. it has. 45,000 locations in asia and. >> australia, and has now surpassed mcdonald's. >> and starbucks, becoming the world's biggest food and beverage restaurant. measured by the number. >> of. >> locations. >> future trade tariffs, auto spending cuts and rising geopolitical tensions, all keeping the markets on edge. joining us now, brian gardner chief washington policy strategist brian, great to have you with us. we're at an interesting point in time right now. we're on the eve of the tariffs. we're also on the eve of a congressional address by

president trump. how important are the optics of this all happening? you know, just before addressing congress to give us the state of where things are right now? >> yeah. >> so you say it's an. >> interesting time this week. i feel like we've been able. >> to say that for months, if. >> not years. it's just an unprecedented. time where it just. >> week after week, there are. >> headlines coming out of washington and the markets continue. >> to. >> grind higher. >> which is probably a positive thing. >> so, you know. >> when we're. >> looking at what's going on. >> this week and the. >> optics. >> you know there's a. >> lot of dissent. >> and disagreement in washington. >> but i think the markets are looking through. >> more broadly, longer. >> term to. >> some positive. >> impacts of the. >> of the trump. trade still. >> but the. >> optics this week are. >> clearly messaging. >> for the president on the economy and the budget. >> the doge effort. is hugely popular. it may be disruptive. >> and we can get. >> into that, but it is very popular. >> with the american public. and

i think he's going to lean into that. the overall. >> message of the trump administration. and it's. >> early, right. we're still. >> in the honeymoon. >> phase is. >> his popularity. >> is pretty good right now. and holding in there. >> how about the economy and pricing? there have been some articles this morning about how, you know, not focusing enough on high prices for the consumer could actually bite him in the end. and i'm wondering how quickly he needs to sort of, you know, that was the centerpiece of his campaign to ease the pain of the american people in terms of prices. and it doesn't feel like there has been anything directly, at least, to address that concern. >> well, it's always been the great conundrum for the trump. >> agenda. >> diana piece. >> just before i came on on the home. builders and. >> lumber tariffs. combined with tariffs. >> that had. >> been threatened. against other countries. certainly raised the prospect. >> of higher. >> prices for consumers. >> not lower. >> and so he's got to walk a

really. difficult tightrope here to deliver on the campaign promises. >> tariffs are. >> popular with some parts of the public, but not everybody. >> but there's a more universal. >> feeling among. >> the of the public. >> that the economy. >> is. >> the number. >> one issue. >> that's what's led. >> to him, that what what's led to his election in november and that's what's. >> going to carry. >> him through. >> this term. >> and so if he's. >> not careful. >> and leans. >> too much into some of. >> the protectionist policies. >> that some of his advisers. >> are. >> pushing, and that. >> he's very comfortable. >> with, there is a. >> there's a big. >> political downside for him. and, you know, he's going to have. >> other. >> matters that he needs to address later. >> we're already. >> into the tax debate. >> if the economy. starts to sour. >> weaken a little bit and. >> his popularity starts to wane, republican lawmakers. >> will. take care. >> will take notice of that, because there's. >> no more. >> powerful incentive in washington than self-preservation. >> how long does that does he have how long does that trump

popularity last? if he's not directly addressing these economic concerns until the midterms? i mean, you know, he has to not just worry about him, but he has to worry about his counterparts in congress. >> right? so and republicans don't have much room to. >> to maneuver. >> they only. >> have a very. >> small majority. >> in the house. >> so i. >> think he's got a couple of months. look, if you look at, you know, honeymoons of past administrations, the biden administration was fairly short because of the afghanistan problem, the chaos of withdrawing from afghanistan in april that cut off his honeymoon. so he was. >> able to. >> get a few things done early, but then stalled after that. the trump administration, i think i think you could argue their poll numbers hung in pretty well during most of the first two years. some of the, you know, the, the russia collusion stories took him down. but his his numbers on the economy always stay pretty solid. so if the economy hangs in and doesn't weaken as as some people are fearing right now, his

popularity is probably going to remain pretty elevated. and one thing is clear, you know, going back to friday and the zelinsky matter, he has really consolidated the republican party behind him. even foreign policy hawks who have been very supportive of ukraine, were very quick to get behind the president. so he's he really is running the party for now. again, it's the economy, stupid. as long as the economy hangs in there. >> call her stupid. >> brian was talking to you, joe. >> oh. >> oh. >> you know i'm here. oh, okay. never mind. no. never mind. >> go ahead. >> okay. >> so he felt me. >> he felt my presence. how can that be ignored as long as. >> the economy hangs in there? >> i thought he was listening. >> numbers hang in there. and his ability to get through his economic agenda is helped by that. but again, if the economy were to soften from here, then, you know it's going to take a political impact, have a have a political impact on him.

>> in terms of tariffs, what's your worst case scenario? i mean, we're not just factoring in. let's just assume that the 25% tariffs go into effect. let's assume another 10% on china. the retaliation could be worse than the actual tariff. >> yeah. >> so you know the china story i think we're still in early stage of that because in the campaign he promised the 60% tariff on china. so which is which would be adding to the original 25% to get it up to 60. and we and this is the second tranche of 10%. so we've got a ways to go on china. and with china it's always going to be yes, retaliation on some of their own tariffs. but that's limited. but export controls cracking down on us businesses and us business personnel in china there are different there are different levers to turn there that may not be seen by the economy as as obvious as a tariff, but it's still going to

play out as impactful behind the scenes in china for us businesses trying to do business in china. and then, you know, in worst case scenario, it's the reciprocal tariffs. i think those will take a longer period of time to implement, because the level of complexity there, i think is underestimated. but in terms of worst case scenario, yeah, a more global reciprocal tariff that that to me that is a worst case scenario because that is going to lead to further retaliation more broadly than just china and more broadly than just the north american trading partners. >> brian, thanks for your time. appreciate it. thank you guys. >> see you later. >> stupid. thanks. now see. >> what they might do, what they might do. and then that's why i'm going to say. >> now earlier he said. >> it's the economy stupid. and then i was joking. i said don't call her stupid. yeah, yeah. >> and she said, you. >> said he's calling me. >> stupid. >> threw me. >> under the bus. >> so that was not doing. >> that because they were stupid. no, i was not. >> i was. >> not okay. i was. joking

coming up. >> but people love the tape. >> you want. >> me to do that? >> okay. >> move me right along. >> coming up. >> a successful social. media entrepreneur. >> joining one of. >> the. >> bids for tiktok. he's well known to our audience here on squawk box. we'll tell you who it. >> is after. >> a break. stay tuned. we'll be right back. >> this is the emirates. premium economy seat. >> and. >> and. >> cidp is no walk in the park. that's true. but i take vyvgart hytrulo. same! it's the first major innovation in cidp treatment in over 30 years. vyvgart hytrulo has been proven to significantly reduce the risk of symptoms getting worse. and my cidp can be treated with once-weekly injections that take about 30 to 90 seconds. do not use vyvgart hytrulo if you have a serious allergy to any of its ingredients. serious allergic reactions, like trouble breathing and decrease in blood pressure leading to fainting, and allergic reactions such as rashes, swelling under the skin,

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scan the code now and ask about the bosley guarantee. >> reddit co-founder alexis ohanian is joining frank mccourt's bid to buy tiktok. ohanian will serve as a strategic advisor specializing in social media. in january, mccourt bid on the tiktok ahead of the company's deadline to divest or be banned. president trump has granted a 75 day delay in enforcing the ban, and has asked vice president jd vance to oversee the sales process. >> prada is moving closer to a

deal to buy versace. i have to say versace there too, because people will take that out of context. it's versace. >> from capri holdings. >> that's according to a. bloomberg report. >> that says prada has agreed to a price. >> tag of $1.6 billion. >> the deal could be. finalized this month. prada shares rose in hong kong overnight. the stock. >> was. >> listed there in 2001. >> and. >> a nod to the. >> importance of the chinese market. capri has. >> been exploring options for. >> some of its portfolio companies since its merger with tapestry. was scrapped following a court order. >> here's what's. >> coming up. >> winners and losers at the. 97th oscars. >> it was a. >> big night for independent films. >> puck's matt. >> belloni will join us. to break it all down. >> stay tuned. you're watching squawk box on cnbc. >> most power players. >> on wall street. >> rated nvidia. >> a strong buy today. yet why, then, are so many legendary. >> investors quietly. >> ignoring that advice. >> and instead selling the stock? hand over fist.

>> every billionaire on. >> your screen has recently sold nvidia. some have offloaded millions of shares. and mark. my words, this is bigger than nvidia. hedge funds are quietly selling. all of their tech stocks at the fastest rate we've seen since 2016. >> it begs the question what do. >> they know. that you don't? my name. >> is mark chaikin. >> i help build three. >> indices for the nasdaq during my 50. >> years on wall street. >> that means i know how to recognize these signals from the tech market and exactly what they mean for you and your money. i explain everything. >> in. my new market briefing, including the truth of what's going. >> on with nvidia today and the specific stock i recommend you buy. instead, i'll give you its name and ticker when you visit the website below. nvidia has been the most talked about stock in the market, and for. >> good reason. >> it's led. >> the ai revolution. >> that has taken the us. >> stock market by storm.

>> since they announced their ai powered computer chip in 2023. nvidia's stock has been on a history making tear, officially surpassing. microsoft to. >> become the world's. >> most valuable company today. however, many. investors are worried the tide is changing. nvidia's day in the sun may soon be coming to a dramatic end. and as a result, i predict a different under the radar stock is primed for big potential gains from this moment on. to get its name and ticker 100% free, simply visit the website below. >> when wellness. >> has you looking unwell. >> when water just. >> isn't enough. >> yet. >> will enter liquid. >> iv sugar free formula with

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>> a private lunar lander from firefly aerospace touching down on the moon's surface. it is the first time a private company has landed on the moon without crashing or having a spacecraft tip over. nasa paid about $145 million to firefly for its blue ghost spacecraft to carry ten experiments to the moon. two other companies landers, are close behind this one. we could see another aircraft descend to the lunar surface later this week. >> sean baker is honora. i said this last week. coming up, we're going to talk more about. >> that coming. >> out on top. last night in. >> the 90s. >> everybody knew, i think 97. the oscars with. >> five wins, including best. >> director, best actress, best picture. >> joining us now. >> matt belloni, puck founding partner. say that three times real fast for me. >> matt puck. >> founding partner i can do that. >> very tough. >> puck founding partner. >> careful. >> careful, careful for me. careful. i had to be. how are you? >> it's good to see you. you see

what. >> i sent you? >> listen. >> i see my son. >> from. >> the parties. >> 19 out of 23. it's late here. >> did you see what i sent. >> you. >> on a text? >> yeah, i did. >> but honestly, i got so many texts last night that i didn't look completely. >> at it. >> 19 out of 23. >> is pretty good. >> as a prediction for. >> his. >> he writes a. >> column that's 83%. >> that's pretty. it's usually. >> average. >> about 75. >> when you think. >> that's good and that's actually better than most of the professional. >> pundits will get a professional opinion. >> not correct. >> for, for. >> for awards. >> daily, which. >> i don't know if. >> you know that whole story. it's crazy. >> but yeah. >> he's he's he's got one. i just. tweeted it out for anyone who's interested. did you think. it might be. >> it might. still be conclave. >> or maybe even. >> brutalist. >> or were you. >> an a guy? >> i. >> i looked at the numbers and honora had the momentum. i thought there could have been a surprise. and any one of those numbers. just because there

really had been. >> there was no front runner this year. there was no oppenheimer. >> there was no nothing that the academy. >> seemed to be coalescing around. and yet we. >> saw honora walk away with. >> five big awards. >> i mean, this is unbelievable that. >> in a wide open year. >> we've had. >> such a not a sweep, but such a. >> major winner. >> like this. >> and even. >> demi moore. did you have demi? because mikey madison was. >> kind of a surprise too. >> that was a that wasn't a long. >> shot, but it was 5050. >> i guess. >> for best actor. best female actor. >> yeah, it was a surprise. >> in the sense that that demi moore. had picked up all of. >> the precursor awards. >> except for the bafta. >> and the academy. >> is increasingly foreign based. the membership is a lot overseas. >> so i it was. not a huge shock, but it was.

>> certainly the surprise of the night. there weren't a lot of big. >> surprises in the. >> other categories. and i think mikey. madison beating demi moore certainly qualifies. as a surprise. >> but if you saw the signs there, she did. >> pick up the bafta there, and the. >> movie just. >> kind of rolled over everything. voters showed that they loved the movie in. >> many different. >> ways, and she kind of picked. >> up that momentum and ran with it. >> well. >> we have come a long way because i was out on, i don't know, one of. >> those nights and. >> we were talking to an. >> elderly couple that. >> said they were. >> going to see a nora. >> and i. >> just said, okay. >> because i'm. >> such a happening. >> like youthful guy. nothing bothered me about it. but you got to be prepared. >> for an aurora. >> before you go see it. don't don't you. >> think? >> especially the first 40, 45. >> minutes or so, there's some pretty r-rated. >> activities in that movie. there is, but. >> it also has. >> a lot of heart. that's that's the thing. >> that movie has.

>> a. >> lot going for it. academy members. >> tend to vote with their hearts in the final voting. >> and there is a lot of emotion. >> in it. >> there's a it's a comedy, it's a drama. it's a road trip movie. >> it's got, you know. >> guns, it's got gangsters. there's a russia element. so it's got it brings in a lot of. >> constituencies there. >> you saw all. >> of them that. >> i guess you have. >> to. >> i do, yes. >> yeah. >> adrien brody is a genius. but brutalist was. aptly named. i thought, was it not? >> you know what? it doesn't feel as. long as. >> you would think with. the 3.5. >> hour tag on it, there is an intermission. if you see it in a. >> theater, you can go get a soda. >> as i did. and it. >> really does satisfy. >> it's an epic. >> and i think adrien brody. because of the commitment to that performance. >> the hungarian accent. >> all of the kind of, you know, epic elements of that film.

>> it ended. >> up being more than. >> timothee chalamet could deliver in a complete unknown. he was. >> great. >> but i think the. academy looked at the. >> adrien brody performance and said, this is the full package. he's in almost every scene of the movie. >> it is. >> an epic film. >> and it was a. >> way to honor this film. >> when the rest of the. categories basically went to. >> a nora. >> well, anyone. >> watched? >> could you ever. >> see ratings going. >> up for the. >> academy for the oscars? well, there's a wild card this year. because it's it aired on. >> hulu for the first time and screwed it. >> up live. >> on hulu. >> the show has only been live on abc. >> there were some. >> glitches last night. >> and people complained. >> about that. >> and i talked to some of the disney people. >> at the governor's ball, and they were acknowledging that it was a disappointment that hulu was. >> glitchy. but maybe they could. >> get a boost out of that. i don't think they're going to get to the 19.5 million viewers they

got for last. >> year's show. >> which was fueled by the interest in. barbenheimer and barbie and oppenheimer. but we'll see, because it's a wild card. how many younger people might. >> watch via. >> hulu that might. >> not have watched otherwise? >> do we know how hosting. >> should. >> be done now? i if i. i think conan if he conan had a late. >> night show, i might. >> actually watch. >> a late night. >> show again. >> podcast. you can listen to that. it's very good. >> but that's exactly. >> what we needed. >> last night, don't you think? >> yeah. >> i think listen, they hired. >> conan o'brien because in part. they knew that he would be an apolitical host. they know. that half the. >> country, or. >> a big chunk of it, does. >> not want to see the trump jokes on the show. >> and there was one towards the end. >> of the show. but for the most part, i mean, he didn't say the words donald trump the entire night. and it was a very kind of down the middle, funny. very funny and creative and wacky. and he did some funny bits, but.

>> they. >> avoided, for the most part, the politics issue. and that was, i think, pretty important to the academy, especially in this moment. they didn't want to be seen as. antagonizing and they got the show that they asked for. >> so i. >> you mentioned the governor's ball. you know, you name dropped there. >> did you, did. >> you get in the vanity fair party? >> i don't go to vanity fair. oh you don't go. never. have they considered me competitive for a while. they do when i was at hollywood reporter and i just never i never have. >> because if. >> you did go, you. >> what do you like. >> eight feet. >> tall, everyone? >> oh, there's. >> matt bellamy. >> there's matt bellamy. >> they would. they would. >> see you. >> if you people. >> don't know that we can't. >> me despite. >> my height even they. >> they. do know me. so it would. >> be it would. >> be fun to go but i that one i went to the honora party was also pretty fun and they had a lot of the winners, so it's always nice to be around the winners. >> all right. good. >> which film festivals are. >> you going this year? will i see you. at any.

>> i'm. i haven't decided whether i'm going to the cannes film festival in may yet, but i'm certainly going to toronto in september and then sundance in january. it's the last sundance in park city, so i got to go to that. >> oh, it is not telluride. >> telluride is great. >> telluride is nice. but i go to toronto. it's where more the more. >> there. >> are two weeks. >> i think go. >> it's two weeks. >> and you're not going to the. >> montclair film festival where i, i. >> can't say. >> i'm aware of that one. >> well, you should be. >> because it's in montclair. >> new jersey. >> and it's your house, joe. >> yeah, it's. >> at my at my house. i'm going to do it again. do you want to try it? what? >> thank him. can you do it? >> you're nervous. matt. thank you. >> matt bellini. where's your. >> what is he? founding pop founding partner peter puck, founding partner. >> no problem. >> there. you did it. great. great job. >> all right. >> it's 7 a.m. thanks, matt. 7 a.m. on the. >> east coast. >> you're watching early analysis. >> i told you. >> about that. i know about the

chicken. >> keep plucking that chicken. >> you are. >> watching squawk box on cnbc. one little slip of the tongue. >> i'm joe kernen, along. >> with melissa lee. >> and becky and andrew are off today. >> he did look it up. >> among today's top stories. >> and he kept his job. and people love him. investors are. >> looking ahead. >> to tariffs. >> set to be. >> imposed on canada. >> and mexico tomorrow. the futures right now as you can see. >> our triple. >> digits now in the. dow and the nasdaq. a reuters report. >> says nvidia and. >> broadcom are. testing chips on. >> intel's manufacturing process. it's an indication that the. >> companies are moving closer. to determining whether. >> they're going to commit hundreds of millions of dollars in manufacturing. contracts to intel. amd's also. >> evaluating intel's. >> manufacturing process. but it isn't clear if it has sent test chips through the factory. >> and goldman. >> sachs david kostin. >> is reducing his full year earnings. growth estimate. >> from 11%. >> to 9%, saying returns will be more modest than last year.

kostin had been bullish. >> in. >> 2024, but warns. >> the s&p. 500 faces. >> hurdles and will need an improvement in the us economic. >> growth outlook. >> for further gains. president trump announcing the creation of a strategic crypto reserve. mackenzie joins us now with all the details. mackenzie. it's interesting because in this social post over the weekend, he cited his january executive order, and that seemed to ignite the rally. >> it did. >> and this is really building upon what he said in january. he says that this new national crypto reserve will include. >> bitcoin. >> ethereum and a. trio of high volatility tokens solana, xrp and cardano. >> he's calling. >> it a move to elevate the industry after what the president described as years. >> of corrupt attacks under the biden administration. >> now, unlike traditional reserves of gold, petroleum or grain commodities accumulated for strategic security. >> this. >> reserve would more. >> closely resemble. >> an active. >> portfolio of speculative assets. the shift in language.

>> from stockpile. >> to reserve also suggests the u.s. may actively acquire and manage. >> cryptocurrencies. >> rather than just holding seized tokens. the crypto market, coming off its worst month since 2022, reacted instantly. bitcoin and ethereum. >> surged over. >> 10%, while cardano spiked as much as 70%. now prices are coming back down, but still, we're seeing investors getting back into long positions, and attention now really turns to friday's first ever white house crypto summit, where the president, along with his crypto czar. >> david sachs. regulators and. >> industry leaders will talk next steps. we'll be watching to see whether the president. >> shares a. buying strategy. >> or plans to push this through without congressional approval. melissa. >> interesting that the notion of an active portfolio. mackenzie, because that, of course, somebody needs to be hired to manage this. so basically you've got a portfolio manager for crypto under the, you know, authority of the us government. >> that's one of the biggest concerns here that the government would be picking favorites. and yes, the cardano

the choice of cardano. >> solana came as. >> a bit of a surprise. at the end of the day. >> these five. >> tokens that are in this. reserve are on the top ten. market cap list. >> and cardano. >> and solana. >> offer faster. and cheaper alternatives. than than bitcoin and ethereum with respect to facilitating payments. the president also has a connection to both of those blockchains. solana. is that the blockchain that he used to build his meme token? meanwhile, you've got xrp. the ripple is the team. >> behind that token. >> they donated $5 million in the xrp token to trump's inaugural fund. so he has. ties to some of these tokens that we're seeing show up here. >> all right. mackenzie. thank you. mackenzie. >> sigalos news, just. >> after kroger ceo. >> rodney mcmullen is resigning following a. >> board investigation. >> of his personal conduct, the board said the conduct was unrelated to the business, but inconsistent. rodney, does that. >> look like a player. >> but inconsistent with kroger's. policies on business

ethics? the company said that conduct is not related to financial performance. i don't know what. >> it is. >> so i shouldn't have said that and did not involve any kroger associates. >> it's all. >> very cryptic. >> yeah, cryptic. >> the board appointed. lead director. ron sergeant. >> sorry to serve. >> as chairman and interim. >> ceo while it conducts a ceo search. >> speaking. >> i'm sorry, but i digress. >> speaking of kroger. >> where's it based? cincinnati. >> yes. >> guess where. >> sundance is thinking of moving cincinnati? >> swear to god. >> someone wrote in and i just. >> looked it up. >> sundance considering a move. >> from. >> park city, cincinnati is one of the. three finalists, along with boulder. >> so i could like that too. i could go back to boulder or salt lake city. >> cincinnati has made. significant financial. >> commitments to. >> attract the festival. >> but the final choice has. >> not yet been made. >> do you find that interesting? cincinnati. >> try to say things that are.

>> interesting. not to waste time. was that was something interesting, which. >> is interesting. >> that i. >> said something interesting. >> okay. coming up, fallout from the heated exchange between president trump and ukrainian president zelensky. kyle bass will join us. and later, leon cooperman on the markets, the state of the economy and much more. stay tuned. you're watching squawk box and this is cnbc. cnbc. >> he did. ♪(voya)♪ there are some things that work better together. like your workplace benefits and retirement savings. voya helps you choose the right amounts without over or under investing. so you can feel confident in your financial choices voya, well planned, well invested, well protected. of it for yourself. my name is j.w. roth, founder and ceo here

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coauthor of in putin's footsteps. nina, great to have you with us. >> thank you. >> what was your reaction to this meeting? i mean, it was a pretty big blow up. and you write that this really played into putin's hands. >> well, every. disagreement on. >> the. >> ukraine front. >> on the. >> western front. >> plays into putin's hands. >> and so this. >> was just a. >> gift that that i don't. >> think even they expected. >> because zelensky. >> showed himself as. they think exactly. >> as they thought he would. >> that is, he's argumentative. >> he wants. >> concessions at all times. >> he thinks he's. >> the king. >> of the hill. >> and donald. >> trump basically slapped him down. >> and then europeans. >> rushed to support. >> zelensky versus. >> or so. >> it seemed for a bit. >> versus donald trump. >> and therefore, of course, as you know, putin. >> is a. >> former kgb operative. >> so for them, the disagreements. in the.

>> west. >> without even russia doing. >> something, particularly. >> at that moment, obviously is a great gift. >> the europeans were quick to rally around zelensky, nina, and the reaction, at least, you know, among investors is to bid european defense stocks higher over the weekend. and in today's session, i'm wondering what your opinion of that is in that. does european europeans have the wherewithal, the money, the finances to actually support zelensky in the way that he needs to be supported without u.s. help? >> well, that's. >> an amazing question. i mean. >> yes. >> the. >> stocks went up. >> and actually, keir starmer, who had a meeting in london, who gathered. >> european leaders. did say. that this is the time for talk is over. and now it's the time for action. >> and here we. >> are going to offer that support. >> well, the. >> question is. >> are they actually. >> going to. >> to offer. >> that support or it will continue to be to be more talk. so that's we.

>> still don't. >> know that. >> but at the same time. >> the story is that they want. >> to repair. >> the relationship. >> with the. >> united states. >> so if the. >> blow up. >> was to. make zelenskyy and europeans more important than conversation. >> with trump. >> potentially it is achieving something. >> but at. >> the same time. >> there was a proposal. >> trump was. talking about the. >> ceasefire. >> and now emmanuel. >> macron talks. >> about ceasefire. >> and they're going to do a coalition. >> of the. >> willing, which. is not a good name. >> because we know how. >> the previous one, the. >> coalition of the willing. >> ended up. so it's. >> not clear. on one. >> hand, they want to be with trump. on the other. >> hand, they sort of. >> against trump. so how. >> it's going to play out. >> and will. >> zelenskyy indeed meet with trump. >> again. >> and once. again what. >> kind of. >> for now, russia is only having the satisfaction. it's still not. very clear whether they're going. >> to be. >> any results in. >> russian favor. from that. >> blow up. >> but then the question these

are still moving pieces. who is going to win? or trump would actually get his way. because zelenskyy is going. >> to come. >> to him. europeans cannot do it without the united states. and so trump. >> will continue. >> to. >> dictate to. >> dictate the rules despite all the. all the european efforts to say that they. >> are players. >> in this. >> to nina, is. >> it possible for the west to. >> enter into some. type of agreement. >> with. >> with putin, with. >> a clear conscience? >> i mean, he was the aggressor. he invaded ukraine. is he you know, we know what he does to. >> enemies within. >> russia and even. >> outside russia. >> we know. >> about the atrocities. >> in children's. hospitals and the bombing there. >> it's just. >> all reprehensible. >> but we're in this position. where the practical. >> outcome would entail dealing with this man and trying to. >> you know, you risk looking.

>> like neville. >> chamberlain or. appeasing russia. >> when what you're really trying to do is acknowledge the reality that that you're probably not. >> going to have a. >> total victory. >> for, for ukraine. >> and anything short of that seems. like you're appeasing putin. how can it be done? >> well, you know, mikhail gorbachev, the. >> great leader. >> he had. >> his birthday yesterday. >> the author of perestroika. >> and freeing. >> the soviet union. >> from the soviet union. >> used to. >> say in your question, there. >> is an answer. you just answered your own question. >> but ukraine. >> is. >> not winning. >> and i think it was the way it was going. >> it has not been winning for at least two years. so ultimately it's either further destruction. or there is. >> a greater. >> involvement of. >> europe, which potentially would be to war. >> or they could be some or should be. some sort. >> of negotiation. understanding reality on the ground. >> and, and dealing.

>> dealing with that. and so i think that's what. seems to me the. united states under trump wants to be doing. he's not a moralistic guy. he's not an ideological guy. he's not a guy on the side of putin, which i think is important. he's the he's the guy. >> on the side. >> of trump. >> what's convenient. >> to trump? what works for trump? nobel peace prize for peace, for. >> nobel peace prize. >> great economic. >> development with. economic relations with russia. >> that are going to be. >> very firmly. >> organized, great. >> that works. >> and so whatever it is to help ukraine to. >> get out of. >> this without moralization. probably at this. point is a realistic, i would even say henry kissinger and way to do it. if there are any other option, please offer it. >> but nobody so. >> far has offered a moralistic option that also. >> would help. ukraine to. >> actually win. realistically. >> norway won't. >> fill our submarines now. i mean, europe. >> has this. >> i don't. >> know, a the pr war. it

matters. i think it's very strange to see and even some of the people on the left in the united. >> states, nina. >> continued billions being. sent to ukraine for weapons to continue. >> the. war with, with. >> you know. casualties coming on. >> both sides. >> continuing for, for years with no end in sight. how is that morally the right? >> how is. >> that presented as the morally. >> right decision? >> well. that was i was. >> answering your question. i mean. >> you were. >> saying, how could we how could we agree on peace with without showing that we peace? >> putin like, well. >> putin is fine. >> he can say. >> continue war. i mean, i have put 145 million people. i'm ready to kill them all. are you ready to kill. >> all. >> of yours? so the question is, what would be what would be the lesser. >> evil in in. >> this scenario? and the moralistic part is that. >> we're going to. >> help ukraine for as long as

it can, even if ukraine doesn't even have people to fight anymore. >> but yes. >> moralistically. >> yes, in the. justice sense. >> of course, supporting. >> ukraine is great. >> what is the. >> plan b? >> what actually is the. >> plan for. for victory? >> because they keep. >> talking about we. >> need to strengthen ukraine on the battlefield. >> three years. >> has it. >> strong on the. >> battlefield when it began, when the war began, ukraine had 77% under the russian occupation. now it's almost 20. so did it get better? so i don't know. i mean, it's a policy matter, but it should be a realistic. >> policy matter. >> not a. >> policy matter of something. >> what is i mean, we are not in. >> a movie. >> and in a movie, of course, good guys. >> win and bad. >> guys lose. >> but in in life, often good guys. >> actually not may not necessarily lose completely. but not not victorious as as the movie at the beginning promised. >> right. professor khrushcheva, thank you. >> thank you.

>> very plainspoken. coming up. dom chu is going to bring us some of today's stock movers. and later, leon cooperman joins us for his take on the markets. tariffs and much more. stay tuned. you're watching. >> squawk box. >> this is cnbc. >> here you go. >> is there any way to get. >> a better price on this. >> have you. >> checked single care. whenever my customers ask. >> how to get a. >> better price on their meds, i tell. >> them about single care. >> it's a free app accepted at pharmacies nationwide. >> before i pick up my prescription, i always check the single care price. >> it's quick, easy. >> and totally free. >> to use. >> single care can literally beat my insurance copay. >> you just search. >> for your prescription. >> and show your single care coupon at the pharmacy. >> so i just. >> show. >> the coupon and get this price. >> that's right. go to. >> single care.com and start. >> saving today. >> 16 million americans suffer from chronic back pain, the six most costly health condition in the us. meet creative medical technology stock symbol sells on the nasdaq. creators of stem

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>> let's check on the futures. and we're looking to build. on friday's late day rally, the nasdaq looking to add 159 at the open. the s&p looking to be up by 31.5. let's get to dom chu with a look at this morning's pre market movers. good morning don. >> good morning melissa. let's start off things with the shares. >> of southwest airlines are. >> falling this morning. >> as analysts at jp morgan downgrade that. >> company to an underweight rating from a prior neutral. they say. that the firm's best. >> days on. >> margins and return on investment are quote unquote. in the past, given reduced government travel spending, a cautious consumer and fuel pricing, all of that may be slowing. a turnaround for momentum going into 2025. >> so southwest down 2%. >> then shares of tesla are bouncing back from. >> last. >> week's losses as morgan stanley names the stock a top pick for u.s. autos. tesla struggled to maintain its post-election momentum, disappointing on things like deliveries. >> on a. >> year. >> to date basis.

>> but analysts are writing that the. >> buyer strike could create. >> a good entry. point for investors, especially as the ev maker pivots to becoming a bigger ai player. now for more on that. another top analyst calls of the day, just. >> head over to cnbc.com. >> subscribers get all. the access to detail behind. >> those big stories. >> and calls, and then we'll end with a check on cryptocurrency names. they're surging as trump announces. plans for a strategic crypto reserve. >> crypto trading. >> platforms like robinhood, coinbase. >> also. >> mirror riot. >> all surging. >> higher even as some of those tokens turn lower this morning. remember, though, they did. surge over the weekend. bitcoin prices. on friday were as low as around 78 to 79,000. they surged to over 94,000 at one point in the last. 24 hours. so melissa, all that context, this. >> is the stock's. >> first chance to react to the crypto news. >> i'll send things. >> back over to you guys. >> all right don thank you. dom chu joining us now. >> kyle bass. >> hayman capital management founder and chief investment officer when did you sit down.

did you hear nina? >> professor khrushcheva did you hear that conversation? >> kyle? >> i did. >> do you think you. >> probably disagree? i'm trying to think. you're such a china hawk. and so, i don't know, realistic. about what they want. >> for themselves in the. >> future and what it means for the united states. is there anything. >> to. >> the notion that. >> there's a method. >> to president. >> trump's madness. >> that he would. >> like to, to maybe. >> just to, to maybe put those two. >> china and russia in opposition and maybe drive a wedge between. >> those two. >> i mean. >> what do you make. >> of. >> what happened with zelinski? >> you know, i think. >> that if you look. >> at what. >> we've been. >> asking for, we've. been you know, we. >> sent treasury secretary bessent. >> to ukraine. >> to in an effort to get zelensky. >> to sign this minerals deal. now, if. >> you just kind of step. >> away from the. politics for a second and think. >> about what we're doing, what we're trying to do is, is further ingrain further intertwined ourselves with the

identity, with the sovereignty. >> of ukraine. >> by getting. >> a critical minerals deal done. >> the deal was. >> done behind the scenes. >> and, you know, there were there were three things that were supposed to. happen on friday. there's supposed to be a press conference. there was supposed to be a lunch with 16 cabinet cabinet secretaries. >> and then a signing of the deal. >> the fact that the deal was essentially. >> being. >> relitigated by zelensky in the public. >> forum. >> in a public press conference, was it just it was it just shouldn't have happened that way. it should have happened in the back room and. >> not. >> in the front room. and so i, i really don't understand how those discussions broke down like that, because if the us has a. long term mineral deal, critical mineral deal with ukraine, it involves us more in their sovereignty and it involves us more in defending their sovereignty. the ukraine, i believe, will end up signing that deal. >> because i. >> just anecdotally, i've heard that when. >> treasury secretary bessent

was over there. >> it was a similar situation they were supposed to sign. and when he got in the room, it was. >> the same type. >> of he sort of saw the. same zelinski in terms of, i don't know where he got. you heard that he met. >> with democrats. >> and chris murphy like 45 minutes prior to going into the oval office. and i think murphy and others told him, don't sign the deal, didn't they? >> well. i don't know, joe. i hope that's not true. i think i think it is. you know what happened in kyiv? what happened in dc. we just need to come up with some transaction and some deal. as you know, we've given ukraine almost, i guess somewhere around $200 billion. the majority of that goes into the us defense, tech and defense side. we don't really send them dollars. we send them weapons and capabilities. you know, the real issue here, since this war broke out is, is, you know,

russia has got 150 million people in ukraine, has got somewhere around 37 million people. it's our call at one 4535, in a war of attrition, ukraine you loses right away. i think. >> we how. >> many how many. >> nukes does. >> putin have. >> still got? i mean. >> as. >> you know. ukraine used to have a third of all of the nukes of russia. and that's how, how and why this has come about. you know, we told them if they would get rid of their nukes, we would actually defend their sovereignty if attacked, we didn't we didn't make it an actual signed un agreement. but we did tell them that we would defend them. so in the end, joe, what we've got to do is get a deal done with zelensky so that we have a deal done with him, and then we can start talking more about about peace. >> hey, kyle. >> when you explain. >> it that way. and that's. >> what i. >> was. >> was my thinking too, that there's an there's an implicit. understanding that if we're.

>> in bed. with ukraine on. >> on the. minerals. there are some. security that. >> is implied with that some security guarantees. number one, why didn't zelensky know that? number two. >> why doesn't. >> putin know that and why would he? i mean, that seems like that might. >> be difficult. >> to get him to do. >> a deal. >> if it. >> was if everybody knew. >> what was. >> actually going. on with the. >> with the minerals deal. >> yeah. i mean. >> as you and i both know, joe, it's impossible to appease mad men. we're trying to appease putin. we're trying to appease xi. and, you know, i realize there's a deep desire to get, you know, deals done. but at the same time, what europe's got to do. you know, when trump first in 2018 threatened leaving nato, only five nato nations complied out of 32, which have spending at least 2% on defense. that comment by 2023 had had almost, you know, 23 of 32 complying.

you can say it's unorthodox, but you can say that a lot. many of the nato members have spun up their defense spending as a percentage of gdp. but you know who hasn't? germany hasn't. spain hasn't. there are there are nine nato members that haven't agreed to spend 2% of gdp on defense, which is absolutely insane, you know, and germany being the leading one, around 1.5% of gdp on defense. germany does so much business with russia, iran and china that it's hard for germany to get on the right side of history yet again. you know, they should be leading europe and they should be leading europe into spending into the into the ukraine situation. >> so you expect. >> zelensky even. i can't tell what europe's telling him. >> to do. >> on the one hand, you know you got norway not filling our submarines. and you know i don't know. >> what i don't know what. >> they're saying. what are they saying. carry on. keep doing

this. let's go. another couple of years, another. couple of hundred billion dollars. our weapons supplies are already depleted here. why do we want to keep depleting weapons? spending more money and having casualties on. >> both sides? >> and i don't. >> think we should be appeasing. >> a madman either. and there's no denying putin. >> you know, was the aggressor. >> and this is the brutality we've seen has been beyond. >> the pale. >> but if. >> you do it in. >> a pragmatic way. >> it's sort of you. >> you got to end it now. there's no end. game for. >> ukraine, is there? >> that's right. i mean, but but with the us having a deal with a sovereign country of ukraine on critical minerals, it's something russia doesn't want. if you see how they're playing this in the background. so i think it's important for us to try to work towards an agreement. and but unfortunately zelensky is going to have to, i guess, apologize for litigating this in a public forum in the oval office. and they're going

to have to at least figure out how to agree to have another meeting at some point in time. and i think that's the first thing that's got to get overcome here, joe. right. >> i can't tell. >> where. >> we are. i mean, you know, it was it just vermont? vance goes to try and ski up in vermont. there's a mile long. group of in my neighborhood. kyle. every house where i know someone very progressive. >> lives has. >> a i stand with ukraine sign in the front of their yard. what? it's almost like a litmus test. what is that from? >> what is that? >> how does that happen? >> you know, i think when you look at the new trump administration, there are a group of folks in there that are basically saying that, you know, ukraine is europe's problem, china is our problem, and we need to be focused on our problems. i guess that's a that's an oversimplified way of looking at it. but somehow in the core right of the republican party, there's been a lot of

stepping away from ukraine. in the end, we have to stand with them. as you know, we europe, we need to keep an allied front. i think our economic deal with ukraine was an effort to show no daylight between the us, ukraine and different. >> ways of standing with ukraine. i think there's, you know. realistic ways. and then there's what nina. khrushcheva called moralistic. ways that that probably aren't going to end well. the good guys might not always win 100%. kyle bass, you got a lot to worry about. russia now, ukraine, china, iran. we'll, we'll we'll have you on again. so do you sleep at all without without medication. yeah. you do. you wake up in the middle of the night in a. >> cold. >> sweat. >> sometimes. sometimes. >> okay. >> see you later. >> thank you. >> okay. >> coming up. tariffs on canada and mexico set to go into effect tomorrow. we'll talk about the potential impact on the us economy. and warren buffett

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consumers. >> tariffs are actually. we've had a. >> lot. >> of experience. with them. they're an act of war to some degree. >> how do you think tariffs will impact inflation. >> over time? >> there are attacks. >> on on goods. i mean. >> you know the. >> tooth fairy doesn't pay them. i mean and. >> you always. >> have to just. >> end then what. you always have to ask that question in economics always say and then what. prices will be higher ten years from now and 20 years from now and 30 years from now? >> buffett wouldn't directly comment on the state of the economy, saying, i really can't, despite it being the most interesting subject in the world. >> what does. >> that mean? >> he doesn't want to be disruptive to. >> the market. i think i guess, i mean, he just doesn't feel like he mean, i can't he can't, obviously based on his portfolio of companies. right. joining us now with how the potential tariffs could impact the us economy. former cfpb director

rohit chopra and former trump economic adviser steve moore. once again, we've got a big old debate set up with two people that hate tariffs. this should be really great. who who wants to start? who hates him more? rohit you probably hate him a little bit more. >> no. >> actually. >> i'd say this. people want. >> a fair trading system. >> they don't want. >> countries to cheat. and i think where i. would focus on is why are we letting millions of small packages coming in with unsafe goods and even ingredients to make fentanyl go uninspected, and mostly from china? there's no question that there is unfair trading practices that really affect our workers and our businesses. but i think. >> people are a. >> little bit confused. >> what's the. >> fixation with canada? and there are places where we want. >> to. >> make sure we're protecting our workers and our businesses.

but we've got to be focused on it and actually stop. >> some of this stuff. >> from flowing onto our shores. and then on top of that. >> we really see. that there's. >> some fine print in some of these trade deals that is actually helping big pharma. big tech companies and going against some us policies to lower drug prices. >> steve. >> if could god if. >> if he can find some things he likes about tariffs you've got to be able to find something. what about what about reciprocal tariffs. stephen steve moore who could not like reciprocal. if they're doing it to us, why can't we do it back to them. >> well look, there's no question that warren buffett is right, that if. you just raise tariffs across the. >> board. >> then things will be more expensive. >> there's very little doubt about that. so warren buffett is right. but people forget that that isn't. >> the only thing. >> that donald trump is talking about. >> he also. >> has. >> what i call. >> the un tariff, which is.

>> that he's. >> saying that he may. >> raise tariffs. >> to 15%. >> but he's also going to. >> say if you if you manufacture. something here in the united states. he's going to lower. >> the tax to 15%. so in other words, something. >> made in, say, dayton. >> ohio or charleston. south carolina. >> is going to. >> cost less, but something coming in from. >> you know. >> china is going to cost more. >> so the effect of that is. >> kind of neutral. >> now i would. >> make another point. >> that. >> remember. >> just last. >> week we had a vote. >> in the united states house on whether we should. >> have a $4 trillion tax increase, $4 trillion. it would be the largest tax increase. >> in the. >> history of the united states. and every single democrat in the house voted for. >> a $4 billion. >> tax increase. and yet these are the same people who say they're worried about inflation. i mean, imagine what that would do to costs of americans if we walloped every family, every business with this giant tax hike. >> that doesn't the math doesn't necessarily make sense to me.

can you just sort of unpack that a little bit? i mean, if we're going to lower the tax on something made in dayton, ohio, the cost of labor, the cost of moving that manufacturing process here, the cost of having a manufacturing facility here will still be probably higher than 15%. even if you lower a tax. >> well. >> if you lower a. >> tax, we just we just. >> kind of establish this. if you lower. >> a. >> tax, you're. >> going to make things less expensive to produce. that's just. >> the. >> inputs just are more economic. >> inputs are much more. >> well then why would the. >> tariff not. >> have i mean. >> a tariff is just a tax on things that come in from the united states. >> a reduction in the taxes. >> here reduces the price of making things here. >> so what i'm. >> saying is that you can't have a. massive tax increase and not expect for that to have a big, big inflationary effect. and that's what democrats i mean, you have to. >> ask, you know, your other guests. >> why is it democrats would vote for $4 trillion tax increase if they're worried

about prices? >> well, melissa, you're right that that math really is a. little messy. what we're hearing, the truth. is this. >> there is a need. >> for there to lower prices. and we have seen so many ways in which we can lower prices. i'm not really sure that's what's being focused on right now. >> we're seeing a focus. >> on canada, where instead there might be issues around how to lower the cost of food and so many other goods. and of course, this. issue about where the revenues from tariffs are going to go. apparently it's just going to be in more corporate giveaways and giveaways to the wealthiest people. so i. >> think we should. >> go back to the basics and say. >> what is. >> the point of a trade policy? and we a want a. trading system where everyone is. playing fair, where you're not sending in illegal chemicals to make fentanyl, that there's. packages coming. >> in with. goods made. >> through illegal labor practices. and i. >> think we got to.

>> focus on. that rather than the noise. >> and instead of. >> not what families are trying to make hit their budget paycheck to paycheck. >> when. and i hear it all the time. giveaways to the wealthy and giveaways to. wealthy corporations. and i never really. i mean, do you really believe that. that corporations can just be grouped in with with the. >> wealthy if you. >> lower. >> the corporate tax. >> rate to make u.s. corporations more competitive and then they. >> you know, they succeed globally. >> and hire more people. and those people pay taxes. don't those taxes that the employees pay don't they fund all the things the liberals and democrats want to do? >> don't they pay. >> all the federal employees that you don't want to get rid of any of them whatsoever? why are corporations? >> why is. it bad to allow. >> corporations to have the. >> best shot. >> they can at success? >> of course. >> that's that's not that's.

>> not the. but you call it corporate giveaway. >> corporate giveaways. >> what is that? what i'm saying is that. well, let's talk about that. there is sometimes in tax deals and in trade deals, fine print that is allowing. >> them really special favors. look at. >> some of the older trade. deals that put. into place fine print for pharma companies. >> that was in. >> direct contradiction to some of the efforts to get more generic pharmaceuticals in. >> look at what is happening with some of the trade. >> deals around. >> big tech companies. >> direct contravention to what we are trying to do. >> to. >> foster more startups and more competition. >> and so we've. >> seen this over the past 20 years. and often it gets distorted by special interests. rather tn thinking broadly about what's the way to grow the economy. >> hold on. >> you hear it all. you hear. >> it all the time, don't you, richard? >> yeah. >> look, billionaires and corporations. >> yeah. first of all, let's be clear. >> i work for donald.

>> trump in his first term. >> i worked. >> for joe biden under under donald trump. we had a 1.95% inflation rate under under joe biden, the inflation rate was 3 to 4 times higher than that. so we actually conquered inflation. inflation went up to 9% when biden was president. so why would anybody, you know, if you're going to do all these wonderful things to reduce inflation and there's. >> all these ideas. >> out there, why didn't the biden administration do them? why did they allow prices to go through the roof? the other point i want to make is they keep talking about tax cuts for the rich and on so on. the rich pay more a larger share of taxes than any time today than in in history. and you're talking about a tax bill that a tax hike that democrats voted for every one in the house that would raise the tax on the average family by $3,000. i'm sorry. i don't understand how that's going to reduce inflation. also, don't forget virtually every small business in america got a 20% reduction in their in their

tax. how is how is raising that tax back up going to reduce inflation. so job number one is to get the tax cut done. so we don't have this giant tax increase. and then we can we look we can have tariffs. but we have to make sure they're offset by other tax policies that that benefit domestic producers. things that are made in the usa. i mean why would we tax something coming in from china less than something that's made in dayton, ohio? i don't understand the logic of that. >> so we've got i think we got to go. >> you got. >> out of there just in time. rohit, is there anything left of your old. >> you don't. >> right. >> what do you think of that? here's. here's what we heard. i. i think you're asking. >> about the cfpb. >> you know, what we saw. >> the last. week is. >> issuing essentially corporate pardons for capital one for transunion. lots of companies, including cases that president trump's director in his first

term issued a lot in the business community, are now asking, what's the new system now? do you have is there another way where you get one of these pardons? >> i think this is a real. >> mistake to. >> not police the. >> credit card companies and the banks fairly. and i think it will pay the price for this unless it gets reversed. >> there was a time we didn't. i mean, it's a relatively new agency. anyway, there was a time that we didn't have that. and some of that stuff is against the law, isn't it? >> yeah. and we. >> and. >> we had a mortgage crisis where there was basically no cops on the beat going after. some of the worst abuses. >> and that was a mistake. >> and this is a mistake. >> pardon these folks. >> why did you. >> go. why did you go after zell? zell is free to consumers. you can't get a lower price. >> than because they broke the law. it was. that's what law enforcement does. when you break the law, you charge them with it. steve, i. >> we were we tried to get homeownership up to about 90% by giving mortgages to people that,

you know, the government was greasing the skids with, with agencies, you know, people that didn't even have an address were getting mortgages. i don't know, there are a lot, a lot of blame to go around there, rohit, during that crisis. but thank you. >> good to. see you, joe. good. >> good to. >> have you on. >> and you guys disagree. that was good. that was good. wasn't wasn't wasn't. >> a love fest. see you. >> guys later. thanks. coming up the ceo of kroger stepping down. details on that next squawk box will be right back. >> this is. >> the emirates premium. >> economy seat. and. >> the economy. perhaps they need to call it something else. >> for the fourth consecutive year. interactive brokers is one of the fastest growing prime brokers and is now number five in preqin's ranking of top prime brokers. interactive brokers

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week for the nasdaq. doug clinton is going to join us next. that's coming up. plus white house trade adviser peter navarro joins us in the next hour to talk about tariffs on canada and mexico, set to go in effect tomorrow. squawk box. >> will be right back. >> most power.

>> players on wall. >> street rated nvidia. a strong. >> buy today. yet why, then, are so many. legendary investors quietly ignoring that advice. >> and instead. selling the stock. >> hand over fist? every billionaire. >> on your screen has recently sold nvidia. some have offloaded. millions of shares. and mark. >> my. >> words, this is bigger than nvidia. hedge funds are quietly selling all of their tech stocks at the fastest rate we've seen since 2016. >> it begs. >> the question. >> what do they know that you don't? >> my name is mark chaikin. >> i help build three indices. >> for the nasdaq during my 50 years. >> on wall street. >> that means i know how to recognize these signals from the tech market and exactly what they mean for you and your money. i explain everything in my new market. >> briefing, including. >> the truth of what's going on with nvidia today and the specific stock i recommend you buy instead. i'll give you its name and ticker when you visit

the website below. and nvidia has been the most talked about stock in the market and for. >> good reason. >> it's led the ai. revolution that has taken the us stock market by storm since they announced their ai powered. computer chip in 2023. and nvidia's stock has been on a history making tear. officially surpassing microsoft to become. >> the world's. >> most valuable company today. however, many investors are worried the tide is changing. nvidia's day in the sun may soon be coming to a dramatic end. and as a result, i predict a different under the radar stock is primed for big potential gains from this moment on. to get its name and ticker 100% free, simply visit the website below. >> and. >> okay, so my kitchen was more

than just retro. i dreamed of a new kitchen, but a full remodel. pricey and a pain. then i found enhance and it was super friendly to the old wallet. >> we'll take. it from here. >> guess what? >> in just one week, enhance. completely transform my kitchen. my kitchen went from drab to fab. we got a whole new style with new door and drawer fronts, new organizers. and now i have a place for everything. >> i mean, look at this place. >> it's the best decision i've ever made. >> private credit is really aimed at five states. so my view is let's lend in 50 states. it's a huge bet on america. our ambition is. >> to bend. >> capitalism in the direction of being good for working class people. passion matters. >> let's take a look at tech stocks. joining us now is doug clinton intelligent alpha founder and ceo. doug, great to have you with us. how far can the tech trade go without nvidia. >> i think. >> it'll still go further. i mean, if you look at the broader

set of the big six, we always look at this. the p e ratio for this year is 27. it's 23 times for next year. so even without nvidia i think stocks like google meta amazon can carry the tech trade. but i don't know that we should assume that nvidia can't participate here. you know, i do think that their earnings last week were good despite the stock's reaction. and i think right now the question is maybe a little bit less about the fundamentals around the ai trade. are these hyperscalers still spending. and it's more just a question of emotions in the market. when will investors feel comfortable coming back to the table for ai? >> nvidia still hasn't been able to achieve pre-deep stock levels. i mean, it feels like there is an inherent concern about, you know, how much of a spend will be needed. and granted, the hyperscalers have announced or confirmed or even upped their capex spending forecasts for the year. but there's no there's no saying that meta has to spend that much money by the end of the year, or

that alphabet does as well. >> there is not. but i also think if you really put it into perspective, if you think about the hyperscalers, they're really all competing with each other. and in some senses it's this we've called it a pascalian wager before. i mean, if you believe in ai, you really do have to invest into the technology because, you know, let's say microsoft drops out of the race. i don't think that means google or meta are going to drop out because they see a future where ai is the next transformative technology and potentially $1 trillion opportunity for them. and so, no, nothing is certainly committing them to these step ups that they've made. it's been about 30%, by the way, from the beginning of the year on these capex builds. but i think that we should rely on them probably doing it. >> and just quickly, doug, you know, intel had some headlines today that some chip companies like broadcom are sending test chips to their factories. so we're seeing a boost in shares of intel's pre market. do you believe in in investing in sort of the dogs of tech for the year i mean for the year it is up somewhere around 20%.

>> it has been a contrarian play that has worked. we have not been involved in it. and i would say this if you think about. the chip trade more broadly, i would rather look at a tsm. obviously, people are trying to diversify around tsm. there's some geopolitical risk there. but still, right now, all roads lead to them. whether you make memory, whether you make gpus or custom silicon, you're really probably relying on tsm. >> all right, doug. >> great to have you. thank you, doug clinton. >> thank you. >> it's already. >> 8 a.m. time flies on the east coast. when you're having you believe that. what can. >> you believe? >> it's already. >> that's that's. >> what i wanted to hear. we're watching squawk. hi, courtney. >> you're here too. >> you're watching squawk box. have you seen any of the show so far? it's been. >> captivating. >> you laughed. >> you cried. >> four stars i'm joe kernen, along with. melissa lee. two thumbs up. becky and andrew are off today among today's top stories. ukraine president zelensky. says he thinks. >> he'll be able to salvage. >> a mineral.

>> deal with the us. >> following friday's contentious oval office meeting with president trump. vice president vance yesterday in london. zelensky told reporters. >> he was. >> still willing to sign a deal granting us access to ukraine's critical minerals. but it should now, he says. now, now he says it. now it should be behind closed doors. >> good idea. >> a reuters report says nvidia and broadcom are testing chips on intel's manufacturing process. it's an indication the companies are moving closer to determining whether. >> they're going to. >> commit hundreds of millions of dollars in manufacturing. contracts to intel, and it's jobs week in america again. mazing. we'll get adp private payrolls on wednesday. jobless claims and international trade data on thursday. and then the february employment report, which will be out. >> on friday. >> well, wall street is bracing for president trump's tariffs, including as much as 25% levies on canadian and mexican imports into the us and slapping another

10% duty on china imports. cnbc's courtney reagan is looking at what tariffs could mean for retailers. but first we start with phil lebeau and a look at the automakers. >> phil and melissa. when you. >> look. at the auto industry, it's really. >> a regional. >> industry, north america as a whole, as opposed to canada, the us and mexico. but if you break down production by those three countries in terms of vehicles. >> sold. >> in the united states, yes, the vast majority are built here in the us. but look, 16% come from mexico, 7% come from canada. so what are the automakers and more importantly, the suppliers done to ensure that they can mitigate the impact of tariffs if they're put in place? one thing they're doing is they're adjusting production by either moving parts and components over the last month, month and a half into locations. >> so that they. >> can do manufacturing as much ahead of time. in some cases, it means bringing more vehicles, maybe from mexico into the united states. >> so that. >> you already have them here before tariffs go into effect. but look, if.

>> this. >> goes beyond 2 or 3 weeks, as you take a look at shares of gm, ford and stellantis, the real question is how much of this will be passed along to consumers. now s&p global mobility says the impact, if you were to add up the numbers, comes to about 6250 per vehicle. let's be clear. the automakers are not going to jack up their prices by $6,200. they're going to try to see how they can mitigate this as much as possible, maybe with suppliers having to eat some of the costs, maybe with consumers having to eat some of the costs. but we really won't know for at least 3 or 4 weeks, because that's when the automakers will have to make a decision in terms of pricing. it could be sooner, but most believe it's going to be at least a couple of weeks down the road. that's the story of the auto industry and the potential impact of tariffs. now let's talk about what's happening with retailers. courtney you've got that story. >> thank you very much. appreciate that. so the fluidity of the tariff talks as retailers sort of workshopping multiple game plans. one source i spoke. >> to who. imports beans. >> from mexico for. example for grocers. >> including whole foods, is preparing.

>> nine different scenarios, including. possibly shifting production. >> to the us. >> now, most major retailers have. >> been diversifying. >> away from china for years. >> some, including newell brands. nearshore to mexico. >> tariffs on mexico likely to be painful for ethan. >> allen. which makes its upholstery. items there. >> 30% of boot barn products. those are made in china, 25% in mexico. and while 80%. >> of whirlpool's u.s. sold. >> goods are made here in the us, the other 20% made in china and mexico. best buy's top countries of import, also china and mexico. kontoor brands. that has 25% of its production in mexico, inputs the unmitigated impact at $50 million this year, but says it can. offset the cost within 12 to 18 months. now, the impact of retaliatory tariffs that's even harder to discern if we get those. so in ten days, columbia, hasbro, carters they say retaliatory tariffs would damage their ability to compete internationally. that's kind of all they've. >> given us so far. >> now, one source i spoke to who works in canadian retail thinks if canada. >> applies retaliatory.

>> tariffs, the impact really would be devastating. >> for its economy. >> its consumers. >> ability to spend. >> canada's. >> yeah. >> they were talking about. this person that i spoke to said that i wasn't aware of. >> this, that. >> for instance for instance, dairy is already highly tariffed in canada. so a block. >> of cheese that. might cost us $4. >> here costs. >> $20 in canada already. and it's done to. >> protect the dairy industry. >> so there. >> are some sort. >> of categories like that. >> and they worry about that. they said, look, i think people that live. close to the. >> border. >> may very well drive into america to buy some of their goods, if indeed there are these retaliatory tariffs. >> and yeah, it's. >> going to be a very complicated picture. and most people think more damaging for the consumers in the economies of china. >> and canada. >> than to us if we're looking at tariffs on both ways. that's what. >> this administration is counting on probably. yeah. phil, how long till the automakers actually decide that they've you know, mitigating is eating costs. right. and so how

long can they do that for. >> most believe. >> you get to a 3 or 4 week period let's say the end of march. and these have been in place for 3 or 4 weeks. and it doesn't look like they're going to go away. that's when the decisions will have to be made. and look, everybody is going to be tracking the pricing right off the bat. and i think that maybe the end of march is when you really would start to see some type of an impact in terms of, let's say, a pickup truck that is built in mexico. how much is that change and how much can the automakers spread that out across the entire portfolio? it's unlikely that they're going to take a specific model built in, let's say the rav4 built in canada and immediately say, okay, here's the price because of these tariffs. they'll try to smooth that out across the entire lineup. >> there's also this notion, courtney, that for goods already made in the us, they could actually raise their prices even if they don't feel any impact from tariffs. as long as it's

lower than the tariff goods as an option. yes, they can still win market share. so consumers can feel price increases across the board, even made in the us products. >> i think that we. >> saw that. >> to some degree back in what, 2018 when we were talking about the washers and dryers. so like the washer prices went up, but the dryer prices kind of did too, because they're kind of a pair, right? so you can pick up that margin on that side. and i think that that definitely is potentially a worry. >> and i. >> love your point about mitigating things is just sort of eating the cost. somebody eats the cost maybe somewhere in the system. so the profit margins go down. then maybe investors pay. and to phil's point about timing, if you've been into a store recently, i mean, it's freezing here in the northeast. there's no gloves in sight. i mean, they've got their swim suits out already. and so there is a decent amount of inventory that's already here, just by the nature of how retail works. so we may not see the price increases actually come into play late, maybe early late summer, depending on, again, how much the retailers wanted to eat, the cost of storing goods in advance, potentially for this to have happen. but i thought it

was interesting. everyone i talked to said, we've got a game plan, all these different scenarios. we've got to present them all to the board and then we have to decide like which, which one are we going to take and how fast can we move, because these things are changing so rapidly. >> courtney thank you, phil, thank you as well. and we've got full day coverage all day of the impact and tariffs of tariffs in the markets and the economy. later in the hour, white house trade adviser peter navarro will be our special guest. all right. still to come house ways and means committee member, new york congressman tom. suozzi on tariffs, taxes and doge and working with the white house. he joins us next. plus, leon cooperman on the markets, his stock ideas and much more. squawk box will be right back. >> did you. >> know taking xyzal. >> at night relieves. >> allergies while you sleep, so

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better odor control everywhere. >> we've solved a lot of problems already. >> new york democrat congressman tom. suozzi has said he's all for rooting out waste, fraud and abuse in the government. congressman, though, has called elon musk's actions at the newly

created. doge clumsy and careless. congressman suozzi joins us this morning. i do hear it's funny. some democrats won't even say say what you're saying, but but some do and say we're just doing it. i want to do it. they sort of give lip service to it, but we're doing it wrong. >> musk has. >> copped to the notion that there will be mistakes, and then we'll try to rectify those mistakes. but initially we're just trying to do things that have never been done, and you. know that. it's going to be difficult when you have entrenched people with interests in things like this. you're going to hear what you're saying from people who just who probably should be cut that just, you know, want to protect their own position. right. >> government is too big. there's a lot of waste, fraud and abuse. >> but what he's doing, like i said. >> is reckless. >> well. when you. >> fire the people who. >> oversee the nuclear stockpile. >> and they. >> came back. oh, my gosh, you made a mistake. we got to bring those people. but they lost their emails and so they had a hard time bringing them back.

when you fire the people who are responsible. >> for. >> overseeing the avian. >> flu. >> and then you bring them back, it's like, oh, well, we might have missed another measles. you know, they fired the people responsible. >> for overseeing measles. >> and then you bring. >> them back. and it's why are you getting. >> rid of the low wage probationary employees? >> why not have a. plan over. >> a period of two years and. >> say, when the high. >> wage employees retire through normal attrition, we don't replace. >> them and we do consolidation. >> and we. >> use. >> technology to do it more. >> when i was county executive. >> of nassau county. >> i reduced the workforce by. >> 1,520%. but i did it through attrition. >> and through. >> technology and through consolidation. >> right now, it's kind. >> of mean spirited. >> on the seams and kind of reckless. and it's not the big dollars. >> because it's. >> going to. >> be all. >> these. lawsuits from the civil service complaints and from. >> the breaking. >> of contracts. >> so let's. >> just let's. >> have more of a plan. >> we've heard yeah, we've. >> i'm not sure. whether it's mean spirited or not, but we have seen, you know, some pearl clutching that i never. >> heard about. >> with layoffs in the private sector from certain people on the left. >> listen. >> i have this this happens. and

in the private sector, you actually. >> have to. >> you have. >> to. >> you know, you. >> go out. >> of business. if you were the government, you'd go out of business. >> some of the. >> stuff is dangerous. >> this is. >> not business. >> this is nuclear stockpile. this is avian flu. >> but some of it is. >> people that. >> i had a woman. >> the other. >> day. >> people haven't showed up in in weeks. >> i don't believe that. >> you really don't. >> well, i. >> believe in the dmz. >> i like the idea of bringing people back from remote work. >> i think that's. >> a good plan, and i think that's. >> a. >> good idea. but, you know, a woman i met with the other day. she finally got a job that's a full time college graduate, was working. >> as a. >> waitress, was working at different offices. she finally gets a job at the irs. she's working on cases back to 2022. >> so there's a huge backlog. >> she's working there for less than a year, so she gets fired. problem is, she's seven months pregnant, was counting on the. >> health insurance. >> she's due to have a baby and she's. gonna lose her health insurance. so this is. >> real. >> life stuff. and we got to figure out how can. >> we accomplish these objectives of reducing the. >> waste, fraud and abuse. >> in government, which is a

good plan. >> to do that. >> but let's. >> work together. >> to try and get that done. >> you will vote. >> no on extending the trump tax cuts. is that true? >> if they would come the way they are now? yeah, 4.5 trillion in tax cuts. and they're only doing 1.8 trillion. in budget cuts. and those cuts will never happen because they're not going to cut medicaid. >> a tax. >> increase on on almost every american. >> no. >> so what. >> we should. >> do is give all the. >> tax cuts to people making. >> under $400,000 a year. >> no corporate corporations should go back to 35. >> no. >> no. corporates don't go back. >> corporates are permanent. >> they when they did this they made corporate permanent. >> and they. >> that stays at 25. >> or. >> 2021 i think. >> and i want to get the state and local tax deduction back. >> how can that that's all rich people. >> no it's not all rich people. >> that's who benefits. they they. >> portray people in new york. >> if you're a cop. >> and a teacher, a husband and wife, and you're making $250,000. >> a year. >> between the two of you, everybody in other places in the country says you're rich. >> but you if you. >> live in long island or new jersey.

>> or. >> new york, you're not rich. but if you're in oklahoma, you're like, wow, these guys must be loaded. >> you're going. >> to leave a cap on. you're not going to get rid. >> of it completely. >> i'd like to get rid of it completely. >> that would benefit. >> a lot that the. >> wealthy, that would be the same criticism. >> like to get rid of it completely. i don't think it's going to happen. you know, i worked on three times. i passed it through the house before, once a full repeal, once. >> a full. >> repeal, second. >> full. >> repeal, and once $80,000 cap, which would take care of like 90% of the people. >> very regressive. >> and you want to be pro progressive? i know. >> you don't you? it's very regres to work every day. >> other than doge. you're on the record saying that. and you know, trump's president, you the a lot of democrats say all we got. >> to do is resist. >> you say you're going to try to find ways to work with. >> i'm the co-chair. >> of the problem solvers caucus. i'm the democratic co-chair of the problem solvers caucus. 25 democrats, 25 republicans meet together to try and find common ground very hard

to do in this environment with everybody yelling and screaming at each other. but every problem we face in america, anybody who says, why don't you just doesn't know what they're talking about? every problem is complicated. >> so to solve. >> complicated problems, you need people to sit across from each other who might disagree with each other on certain things. >> why are you looking at me? she's right. i agree with her. i said when. >> you came in, i. >> said, i think i. >> said some very nice things to you, but let's try. why did i say you were. >> almost a republican? >> i'm a true blue, dyed in the wool democrat and a. >> blue. >> dog blue. >> dyed in the blue. >> dog american. and i want to try and make the world a better place to live in. so let's get back to where, whether you're a far left progressive or a far right. >> you got. >> to work on them. >> everybody in america, you got to work on everybody in america should believe that if you're willing. >> to. >> work hard in return for working hard, you have a decent life. you make enough money so you can buy a house, educate your kids, pay for health insurance, and retire without being scared. we've lost that in our country too. when you are working. >> hard and. >> not doge. >> but 37 trillion, did you think everything that biden spent money on made sense?

>> no. >> we were. >> below $1 trillion before the pandemic. then we got went to 4 trillion almost for a deficit. then we went back down. >> then the last two years. >> he crazy. >> back to. >> 2 trillion. >> the deficits. >> are way too. >> high in our country. it's hurting us. the uncertainty of the tariffs is hurting us. and i'm for certain tariffs especially against. >> you are reciprocal. >> ones in china. you know they're getting away with this de minimis thing where they're sending all these goods in under $800. and we're not inspecting them. that's where the fentanyl comes in. >> we are inspecting them. there's too many packages coming in. right? i mean, they do intercept counterfeit goods and drugs and things like that. it's just it's like drinking from a fire hose. it's too much packages. >> we got to change the law so that we may stop exempting all these goods that. >> are coming. >> in because. >> they're cheating. >> and a lot of goods are coming from. >> the uighurs being produced. >> with forced labor. so we have to hold them accountable. i also think we should be trying to protect strategic industries in america, things like computer chips and robotics and electronics and things that are low wage stuff. why are we putting why are we why are we hurting canada? where if you say

you live in a northern state in america and you're a farmer. >> canada is a northern. >> state. >> no joke. >> come on. what about. >> what do you think. our friends should not be trying to take? >> i'm joking, i'm joking. what about? what do you think of friday? >> i thought it. >> was disgraceful. >> you did? i thought it was a gang. listen. >> who was disgraceful? >> zelensky or the. >> the guy who was marjorie taylor's boyfriend? who says. what are you doing here without a suit on? don't you own a suit? why was this guy even in the white house asking questions? so you didn't like that? what about what do you think he should have said about about musk? they shouldn't say anything about musk. we're not wearing a suit to the. okay. that that's a that's a sideshow. >> a. >> gang up show. >> but yeah, but don't you think they should have gone behind closed doors and signed that deal, don't you think? >> i think they should have gone behind closed doors and negotiated for security. >> being in. bed for the minerals is kind of an implicit. >> kind of is not good. when your people. >> what. >> do you want to do? you want you want to guarantee boots on the ground, or.

>> i want to guarantee that there will. >> be us boots. >> what are we? what are we saying? >> if i'm. >> saying no, no. but if russia comes back in again, let's say we do a minerals deal, okay? if a bomb. >> drops on my head. what do you mean? >> if we've had american companies working in ukraine for decades. right. those companies got screwed when? when russia invaded. so why? why is it that we would that ukraine, with all the people dying, would feel comfortable? >> you want. >> the war to continue. >> so they want. >> the war to end and i want it to i want putin to be held accountable. he cannot be rewarded. >> which means what though in this world. >> he can't be rewarded for this. he can't be rewarded. >> so 7% was the occupation before before the war started. do you think that it should be rolled back to seven or it should be less? >> i'm not going. >> to give you a. >> specific number. >> i'm just trying to understand what is. what does that. >> reward putin for? being the invader, for killing people, for kidnaping children, raping women, for all the stuff that they've done? what is the hostile aggressor? they cannot be rewarded. >> well. >> if that meant you got to get

all the land back and push him back. and if it takes five years and another trillion dollars and another, you know, million lives. >> that's the negotiations that have to take place. and zelensky and the europeans are all saying, yeah, we want peace. let's make a deal. let's just make sure that it doesn't happen necessarily. >> exactly. >> because we can't trust putin not to do it again, because if we let's say we back out on on ukraine, okay? and we say, oh, you can't win anywhere. it's such. >> a small country. >> you would never want anyway. you're only winning because of us. well, let's say we back out. well, what happens to latvia? what happens to lithuania? what happens to estonia? what happens to moldova? what happens to all these countries that are these little teeny countries that are on the russian border that he's been putin has been threatening already. we can't reward. >> him. >> some would say. >> will china say about taiwan if we say we're going to let the aggressor get away with it? >> some would say, you know, we'll. >> cross. >> that bridge when we come to it. in the meantime, we can't throw more money, more weapons, more. lives lost. and no one's

disputing this is a really bad guy. but it's a world that doesn't exist on on moral issues. it exists on practical, pragmatic. >> this is in our strategic. forget about the moral issues. this is based on our strategic. national interest. still is if we let putin. >> get away. >> with this. sounds like. >> we're going to have more trouble later on, just. >> like they said to zelensky. don't tell. >> us what we need. >> to worry about. >> you don't know i don't i mean it's a it's a very. >> sticky, tough situation. >> and like everything else the two sides have. >> everything is complicated. >> everything is. >> people would sit down and talk to each other. i'm waiting for my. invitation to the white house. >> i thought you would say. back here. >> let's go back here. >> you know you can come back tomorrow. i won't be here. you're going to get welcome. you're going to get rid of that. crappy salt thing. you can come back every day. yeah, i live in new jersey. >> i'm sorry to. >> hear that. i'm still waiting. >> congressman tom suozzi, thank you. >> thank you matt. all right. >> up next a bullish call on tesla. and then omega family office ceo leon cooperman will join us to discuss his favorite

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to be building a lot of generative ai apps. >> even say i, i don't think this. >> could be deflationary in the short run. >> it may very well be deflationary. >> you know. >> after 3 or 4 years. but most of us. >> for now, we're spending more money on it, not less. >> wings and beer. making the morning call us today morgan stanley moving to overweight on chipotle with a price target of $70, saying cmg strengths have made this a good entry point. they're also hungry for earning, upgrading wingstop to overweight, making it a top pick with a price target of 3.75, which would be close to a 60% upside move from here. deutsche bank upgrading anheuser-busch inbev to a buy with a price target of 75 and adam jonas morgan stanley turning bullish on tesla, writing that the buyer strike could create a good entry point for investors, especially as the ev maker pivots to become a bigger player. that stock is up 3.5% premarket or when price is surging too. are they? i don't know, why wouldn't they be? >> they should be.

>> no. increases are not currently surging despite a different kinds of chicken maybe that are affected by the avian flu i don't know. >> i don't. >> know why that's not happening because. >> we've killed a. >> lot of chickens up next. and you only get two wings per chicken. i have you have boneless wings, right? >> yeah. those are. >> like. >> there's been all the chickens are crazy mcribs. >> that. >> they've composted. >> so i think. >> they're just. >> breast meat. they're not wings. no they're not. obviously there's no such thing as a boneless wing. >> right. >> unless it's. >> been. >> debunked. coming up. omg, we're omega family office ceo leon cooperman is putting money to work under the trump presidency. i have thought genetically engineered chickens with 4. >> or. >> 8 wings. they should just like graft them on. yeah. >> later. >> white house senior trade and >> white house senior trade and manufacturing i can't believe you corporate types are still at it. just stop calling each other rock stars. and using workday to put

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still some green on the screen. let's get to mike santoli with more on the markets. you've got to admit mike when you look back oh you were you were here watching probably every tick but

600 on the dow. that came out of nowhere didn't it. and 300 on the nasdaq friday. >> 100% i mean. that final moments on friday there was this levitation now definitely was some of the month end mechanical bids seem like some rebalancing flows. nonetheless the prices count. you know, those are real. buy orders and you have to see how the market digests them now. and it also happened in a very. >> crucial spot. >> i'll point out s&p 500 had sort of been down almost 5% at friday's lows. it was below the pre-election highs. at that moment. it was down just about 5% from its peak, as well as about flat or a little bit negative on a year to date basis. so it kind of rescued the trend in some respects right there. and so we'll see if it can sort on that. by the way, the rally in europe today, more than 1% higher in the euro stoxx 600. it's up 11% year to date. also on the nasdaq 100, another crucial save that we got on the trend. this is a two year chart of the nasdaq 100. and it bounced just above its 200 day average here. and if you just

sort of draw the general trend line, that's pretty much what what had remained intact. so you see mag seven getting a little bit of a bid today. seems like it looked a little bit oversold. we reset sentiment to some degree. there's a little bit of a scare. speaking of that mild economic growth scare, take a look at the two year treasury yield. and that also similarly kind of got saved above this trough right around it went below 4%. and that was the real growth scare in the late summer and fall of last year, when pretty much people thought fed was going to be behind the curve, we were going to go into a recession. so you're back above 4% here, which is a pretty undemanding level in terms of, you know, comparing to, to equities and for the for the economy, but obviously does not suggest that, that there's really an economic, you. >> know. >> crisis or something to worry about in terms of the fed having made. >> a mistake. >> joe. >> do you know why wings haven't risen in price? i know now

there's. >> there's egg. >> laying, there's egg laying hens. i just said they're different chickens. well the chicken wings are all made in raised in buffalo, new york. all of them. none of them have to joke. buffalo wings. that's a no. there's their broilers. broilers have a much shorter life cycle. so 6 to 9 weeks. so farmers replenish them very quickly for the wings. the egg laying hens take much longer to develop that type of thing. so you can't replace them nearly as quickly. i believe that for a second to that. the buffalo, you know about buffalo. and because my father was born and raised in buffalo, new york, the anchor bar near a chicken wing producing plate or what? yeah, he was the anchor bar. no. so the anchor bar is or was in buffalo created the buffalo. sorry, mike. we didn't that was a good report but i was joe was much more fascinating. yeah, i know i was fixated on this. let's talk more about the markets and the possible impact

from geopolitical issues. for that we have lee cooperman, chairman and ceo of omega family office. lee, great to have you with us. >> thank you. >> nice to. >> be with you. >> where are we in the markets in terms of the macro, their concerns about the impact of tariffs on the economy, there's concerns about inflation maybe picking up with the hotter than expected cpi prints last month. >> let me let me. >> kind of explain thing. i'm 82 years of age. >> i have some health. >> issues i'm dealing with. >> and i'm not. >> looking. >> to get rich. i'm looking to stay rich. and i don't like the environment. i don't like what i see, and it's very, very confusing. and i worked very hard for two reasons. number one, i want to be. right because i have an ego like everybody else. and number two, all my money when i worked for all my life is earmarked for charity. i'd like to have more money to give away. so i'm very focused on things. and, you know, the president is on the right track,

but i think he's doing things in a manner that is very destabilizing. so i have a conservative view. i don't like the action in gold, where in the 97th percentile of valuation, and he's trying to change the whole ethos of the country. you know, i look at the statue of liberty, i think the message of the base is, give me your poor masses yearning to be free, you know, and you know, we're rejecting that now and we're taking a different approach. i understand what he's doing. he's focusing on the deficit, but which has to be focused. but, you know, focusing on the deficit is contractionary. you know, there's been a number of companies that benefit from the substantial deficit we've run in the last number of years. and the desire to eliminate that deficit, which is the right thing to do, in my opinion, is going to create contraction. >> in terms of being conservative at this point. lee, what does that mean in terms of allocation? >> well. >> i. >> think, you know, the market multiple is too high. i look at the world and i say is the stock

market deserves to be at 23 times earnings, which is about where it is. and i say no. and so i'm looking for things that are selling at a discount to a market multiple and have growth prospects comparable to the market. so for example things that we like apollo in the. energy transfer yielding close to 7% and selling around 11 times earnings. new relatively new name for me, fidelity insurance book value of 30. stock price of 14. buying back stock. and they're an insurance company. you know in a hard market they should be able to earn 20% on equity. that's $4 in earnings. the stock is 14 and change. so it's less than four times what i think they earn. so i find that number three, lithia motors and the car dealership area very cheap stock in terms. >> of verde. verde is also one of your top holdings. i thought

that was an interesting one. that's, you know, the cooling for data centers, artificial intelligence play. >> we put that at ten to the current price. you know we're holding on. but you know we pay taxes. so they're looking to create tax liabilities. you know we're a taxable investor. so we invest we don't trade. but you know for new money i don't think we'd be putting new money there. >> are you. >> is there something that happened in the ai trade that's changed it. or is it just the tremendous run it had until, you know, the end of january or so. >> you have a contrarian bone in your body. every third word on tv is i in the position it's been discounted or it's not real. so i take the position that it's been largely discounted. and i think it's a positive, no question about it. it's going to raise productivity. but i think, you know, it's already been discounted. so i have a very cautious view of the world. i don't like what i see going on. >> right.

>> you said you're managing most of your money for charity. i'm wondering, do you have a cash allocation since you're so concerned at least near term? it sounds like longer term, you think, you know the administration may be on the right track, but shorter term it's creating a lot of volatility. so what are you doing to weather the short term. is it only just do you still have most of your money in equities or are there is there another allocation to treasuries or. >> i think short term cash is competitive these days yielding 4 or 5%. and i would say that i have a very negative view of bonds. bonds don't make any sense to me at 4.2%. and i realized it was a good man. you know, he's basically talking about 2% bond yield. i don't get it. i don't see how, you know, every day i'm seeing more capex being announced as i area it would be big demand for money. we have guns and butter policy in in washington. so i think that the rates are going to head up in the long end and the fed can cut them in the short end. but i think long rates are going to go up. so i don't like bonds.

just one thing viewers should keep in mind. the only way bonds adjust to higher inflation is the client price. to keep the coupon current stocks suggest to inflation by raising selling prices, which lift the nominal level of revenue and earnings. i'd rather take my chances with stock than a bond giving everything i. >> so your your your your view on the long end of the bond terms of yields going higher. what is that going to do to the market. i mean that's that's going to be a cap on the markets i assume. >> i would say so. the stock market doesn't have any equity risk premium currently. and so if rates go up i think it's going to become more negative for the stock market. >> tariffs go into effect. and sorry sorry lee what did you say. i could be dead wrong. but that's the way i see things. >> right, right. well we respect your opinion. that's why we have you on the show. we are just talking to our auto reporter, phil lebeau, in terms of how long automakers will be able to eat the cost of tariffs, he

said, you know, maybe till the end of march, and then there's going to be some hard decisions made about what to pass on to the consumer. how do you see that playing out? >> you don't know whether he just backs off the tariffs. he's looking to get you know reciprocity which makes sense to me. you know i think what he advocates makes sense. you know 40 or 50 years ago the smart guy ever dealt with doctor henry singleton, founder of teledyne, said that he'll know the government is getting serious on budget reduction when they eliminate the department of education. and i think the you know, he's proposed eliminating department of education. he's proposing to eliminate carried interest for hedge funds. and, you know, there are other things he should be proposing, which, i don't know, real proposals. i noticed that we have elon musk important role. you know, he has a contract. his company has a contract with the government to put the first black woman on the moon, you know, and has he given

up that contract? you know, and there's a lot of self-dealing. and i want to make sure that everything is above board. >> i'm going back to how conservative you are, lee. how how how concerned on a scale are you? you know, the most concerned in six months. i mean, how high is your cash allocation? >> i would say i have about 15% cash, but it's not really. i'm not a big cash player. i basically i'm selling anything i have that goes up. i'm selling on strength. i'm reducing exposure and strength. okay. and i have, you know, we have a bunch of stocks have done well, we're keeping up with the market, which is, you know, a good thing in my largest position has done nothing. it's a bond i'd like to for a long time. recent news has been discouraging, but i think the government is going to the government is really been in themselves very poorly. >> right.

>> lee? we got to leave it there. always great to speak with you. thank you. lee cooperman. >> thank you very much for having me. appreciate it. >> coming up next, president trump's tariff plans and what it could mean for imports from canada, mexico and china. white house senior trade and manufacturing adviser peter navarro is our special guest. coming up next. >> 16 million americans suffer from chronic back pain, the six most costly health condition in the us meet creative medical technology stock symbol on the nasdaq. creators of stem spine, a regenerative medicine using stem cells to help fix the multibillion dollar chronic back pain problem. stem spine was shown to be 87% effective at

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>> talking to sources. >> and. >> doing my own reporting to. >> share insights. >> information. >> and all of the details that you. >> need to be able. >> to make money. >> cnbc spotlight delivers the best videos of the day right to your inbox. top stories, key highlights hand-selected daily by cnbc experts. sign up now for free. go to cnbc.com. spotlight. >> us tariffs. >> on mexico, canada and china are set to take effect tomorrow. joining us now peter navarro, white house senior counselor for trade and manufacturing. peter it's always good to see you. what's what's going on. how are you? >> good to see. >> you back in. >> the. >> saddle. >> my buddy. >> thank you. i'm good. i'm lean and mean. i've even lost weight. one thing we hear, even some people come around on this, on tariffs, especially the reciprocal side. one thing i keep hearing again and again,

peter, is why canada? why our trading partners in the north, you know, the amount of fentanyl that comes in up there. i don't know that it's literally like, what is it like 40 pounds last year versus thousands of pounds from from mexico. what's what's the canada side of things really about. what are we trying to do there. >> what we're trying to do, joe. >> is save probably. >> over 100,000. >> american lives every year. >> it's interesting to me. >> how we've got just accustomed to hundreds of thousands of americans. dying over the years from fentanyl. but let me explain. >> that it's not just. >> the. >> people out there. >> i mean, everybody. >> is a fentanyl. >> victim, joe. >> everyone in this country. because they either had a son or daughter that died or they know somebody or they know somebody. >> who knows somebody. >> and here's the thing fentanyl kills directly. >> they use it to spike. >> drugs like. >> heroin and amphetamines.

>> but a lot of. >> people don't know this. >> there were 80 million counterfeit pills that were seized that were. >> things like. >> ambien. >> xanax. >> vicodin, oxycodone, all this stuff that people have in their medicine cabinets laced with. >> fentanyl. >> killing people. >> 80 million. that's just what. they caught. i mean, that's enough to kill the whole country. what's coming over now? >> if you think. >> about the problem, it starts in communist china. with the precursor chemicals. >> it comes. >> in to. mexico and they make the fentanyl. but they also have these pill presses. so they do the counterfeits. >> and they're using canada. >> as a transit hub and secondary point to manufacture as well. is a canada mexico china thing. and the fact that we have such porous borders, particularly during the biden years, made it even worse. >> and let's not forget.

>> canada is also a source of people coming in on the terrorist watch list. so this is a serious problem. and it's. >> it's as. >> sensible to do what we're. >> doing in the name of saving american. >> lives as when we. >> talk about. >> tariffs in another. >> context, that. >> reciprocity is the most. >> common sense thing. joe, the warren buffett. >> was weighing in on on whether, you know, prices go up or it's kind of like a tax. do you acknowledge maybe we could see some pressure on on prices? and i'm just wondering how long will you be patient? will president trump be patient if that affects, you? know, the last thing that he wants is to rail about the biden administration on inflation and then to have his own problem. we already got, you know, the bird flu in egg prices. et cetera. how long will there be a resolve? could could you see some wavering there on the commitment to tariffs if the

stock market were affected or if, if inflation, you know, were to come back hard? >> well, let's. >> start with warren buffett. i was. >> i was amused to see mr. >> buffett make that. >> statement, when in. >> fact. >> joe, i don't know if you remember this, but warren buffett. >> wrote the definitive. >> the. >> definitive article on why trade deficits. are dangerous. warren buffett wrote this beautiful article about how if you continue to run trade deficits in america, pretty much foreign countries. >> will own. >> everything you have. and he had. >> it. >> exactly right. he probably forgot he wrote this in terms of the. economics of inflation and tariffs. there's a couple of things to say here. our experience. >> in. >> the first. >> term, joe. >> was very clear. >> we did not have inflation. >> we had price stability. when we put the tariffs in on china steel, aluminum, solar dishwashers. >> and all of that, no

inflation. and the. >> reason why is a complex. >> chain of macro things. >> that begins with. >> the fact that the. >> exporting countries. >> which are. >> dependent on our markets, absorb a large share of the. >> tariffs. and then you have. the supply chain effects moving around. as you know. >> joe, when our trade deficit goes down, the dollar. >> goes up. >> imports are cheaper. so that brings it down. >> and in the limit. and this. >> is where president trump wants to go. we have. >> more and more investment here that raises. >> productivity and real wages. >> and that mutes. >> inflation as well. >> and don't forget. >> the three ds. >> we got. >> deregulation doge and. drill baby drill. >> that's the. >> trump strategy to bring down inflation dramatically. and anything. >> that happens with tariffs joe. >> is second order small. >> so i don't see the. >> president wavering on any of. >> this because he. >> knows in order to get.

>> to a world. >> in. >> which america is strong. >> and. >> prosperous. >> with real wages going up and factory jobs, this is the path. >> that he's chosen. >> so, peter, when companies say that somebody is going to eat that cost and we might have to pass that to the consumer, you're telling them that you're not going to i mean, you're saying that there's going to be price stability in the face of increased tariffs. what do you tell the companies that have already said, we're going to have to pass this cost on to the consumer at this point? >> ask and answer. melissa, i you know. i've seen and we've had these discussions. >> over the years. we had. >> them in the first term. >> melissa, it's like you bring up inflation, inflation, inflation. but please. >> melissa. >> ask the question. >> why are we this. it's because the world. >> cheats us. there's a reason why germany sells eight times more cars in this country than we sell to them. the reason is. their tariffs 10% on autos. ours is 2.5%.

>> they're that tax is 19%, which acts. >> not just as a. tariff but also. >> as an. >> export subsidy. and by the time a $50,000 cadillac gets over to the german market, it costs $65,000. and the bmw that cost $50,000 in germany costs in the. low 40s. >> how do. >> we compete with that? one thing, though, i want to make sure i mention this because there was some breaking news. >> over. the weekend that. >> were. >> good news. >> for. >> home builders, for lumber companies, for insurers. >> and that was two executive actions that the president signed, one on timber and one on lumber. the timber one was. a beautiful thing. it's basically recognizing. that states like california elsewhere have adopted bad forest management practices, which have led to these wildfires all around that that not only destroy property and kill wildlife and everything like that, but it can actually

kill people, as we've seen vividly. so the president signed a really good order that addresses things like timber salvage, timber thinning. it will help us actually increase the supply of timber and therefore lumber to our homebuilders. and he also signed a separate action designed to have the great howard lutnick, the new secretary of commerce, study and investigate the effect of lumber imports, because we've got a lot of countries dumping our lumber into this and hurting states like maine and the loggers there. so i want to make sure that that people saw that little piece of news, because it's big news for insurers, for home builders who will pay less for lumber and for home buyers as well, and for the lumber companies themselves. >> when you talk. >> to the president about trade imbalances, peter, are you are you on the same page there that by definition, if we have a

trade imbalance, we're losing like billions of dollars because we do. >> yeah. i mean, we're. >> concerned we're consumers, though. we consume in this country, we're able to consume a lot more. we're a wealthy country. it's never going to be there's always going to be trade deficits. it's never not going. >> to be that way. look. >> you know, the way the. >> part of the way. >> the cheating works is to encourage our consumption and discourage. >> our. >> savings and therefore our investment. so i reject the idea that we can't get to an equilibrium world where we don't run trade deficits. you have to remember. >> joe. >> if we. >> run $1. >> trillion a year trade deficit, like we're doing pretty. >> much every year, that's. >> $1 trillion foreigners have to buy america. and pretty soon, what do they do? they buy our. >> apartments or housing buildings. >> the rents are going up. they buy. >> our. >> farmland. they get control of the supply chain of our

agriculture. they buy our. equity instruments. and that. >> means the capital income. goes there. i see. >> what you're saying. yeah, they buy pebble beach. that's the last thing you know. remember when that happened? >> you think that might. >> not have been the best buy they made. >> but when they bought smithfield we'll sell it to. >> them. >> at. >> the top. >> supply chain. >> that was. >> frightening to at. >> the top like that. >> we got a good deal when we bought it back. all right. we got to go. we'll we'll have you on again and continue this. see how it comes. thanks, peter. how it comes. thanks, peter. >> here for you, brother. (♪♪) (♪♪) what took you so long? i'm sorry, there was a long line at the thai place. you get the sauce i like? of course! you're the man! i wish. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses

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available now at grasa. >> final check on the markets this morning on this monday. nasdaq looks pretty good. up almost 150 points. 300 point gain. we saw on friday dow was up 600 on friday. adding to that. but it's a long way obviously to 4 p.m. treasuries. treasuries now 423 on the ten year. take your best guess why we've seen yields drop. i mean it's in this world 40 or 50 basis points is a big move. didn't used to be a big move. but coming down in the face of tariffs and inflation and everything else is a little bit hard maybe to understand. oil is

perfect for most people, 70 perfect 100 is too much. 40 kills everyone, right? it's just like goldilocks. sweet spot crypto. bitcoin has rebounded to above 90,000. got all the way up to 95,000. but now you can see. thanks for being here. hope you feel better. and you better not be contagious today. squawk box, you said you're not right. yeah. all right. see you tomorrow. >> good monday morning. >> welcome to squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with david faber. sara eisen. >> at post nine. >> of. >> the new york. >> stock exchange. cramer has the morning off. >> futures pretty solid as the. s&p does. >> come off. the fourth negative. >> week in five. >> but the best. >> day since mid january on friday. >> busy week. >> retail and tech. >> earnings of. >> course tariffs possibly tomorrow. and the jobs number. >> friday begins. >> with the white house. the president talking about. >> a crypto. >> reserve and ordering a