interesting commentary out today from a former intel ceo kind of backing up what pat gelsinger was able to do there, saying don't split design and manufacturing over at intel, though, it's expensive to know what they're going to do with that over over time. >> yeah, crude was lower today. gold was higher. we're going to watch for those tariffs that take place at midnight in the meantime. that does it for us here at overtime. >> fast money starts now. >> live from the nasdaq market site. >> in the heart of new york city's times square. this is fast money. here's what's on tap tonight. stocks sinking as president trump's tariffs get ready to go live. the nasdaq officially erasing all of its post-election gains for the first time. volatility hitting its highest levels of the year. how should investors protect themselves in this market? we'll look for some answers. and shares of nvidia sinking another 9%, hitting levels not seen since september. it's now lost a quarter of its value since hitting an all time high. does this mark the end of the red hot ai trade? plus, what a crypto

reserve could mean for bitcoin prices. could europe be the place to put your money? as germany trades at records and target on deck with the retail giant might say about the impact of tariffs tomorrow. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq on the desk tonight. tim seymour, karen finerman, courtney garcia and steve grasso. we start off with that late day market selloff. the dow dropping 650 points. the s&p posting its worst loss of the year. the nasdaq closing below its 200 day moving average for the first time since october of 2023. it is now at its lowest level since before the election. the moves triggered by president trump's promise that tariffs against mexico and canada would go into effect at midnight. for more, let's get to our megan costello in washington with the very latest megan. >> melissa, given the way last month went, when we did see these tariffs delayed against canada and mexico, there was a lot of hope and i would say even expectation earlier today that we would see that play. >> out again. >> but i had the opportunity earlier this afternoon to ask the president directly whether there was going to be any possibility of a last minute

deal with canada and mexico. here's what he said. is there any room left for canada. >> and mexico. >> to make a deal before midnight? and should. >> we expect those chinese tariffs, the extra 10% to. >> no room left for mexico or for canada? no. the tariffs you know, they're all set. they go into effect tomorrow. >> that said melissa, we do know that the preside just in the last hour, has signed an executive order making the 10% tariff official against china. that's the additional 10% that goes into effect at midnight tonight, on top of the 10% that took effect last month. he has yet to sign. >> any paperwork. >> making the canadian and mexican. tariffs official. so anyone in the business of reading the tea leaves, there is a little bit of room left. >> there while we. >> still await this official paperwork. >> even. >> in spite of what the president. said earlier today, though, i am told it is the. expectation that he will move forward and sign those. and in the meantime, i should also note that both mexico and canada are preparing to retaliate. the canadian foreign minister says that they are ready to go, that they. >> will. >> retaliate as necessary.

they've already laid out a list of $155 billion worth of u.s. exports that will take a. >> hit if these tariffs take effect. >> melissa. >> justin trudeau has mused that perhaps that they impose an energy tariff of their own in order to exact some pain on u.s. drivers that that could be a retaliation. is that at all serious? is that at all in the cards? >> it's something in their arsenal. if they want to make a. >> splash, that. >> is their i should say also that we also had a chance. >> earlier today. >> on cnbc to talk to the canadian. energy minister. that's jonathan wilkinson. he said that it's definitely something they've considered. he didn't think it would be in the first round, the first line of retaliation. but if they want to make a statement here, want to feel some consumer impact, it's definitely something that canada at least is thinking about. >> all right, megan, thank you. megan costello reporting from the white house today. it's amazing. we all knew that this was looming. we all knew that march 4th was going to be the deadline. and i guess there was always that hope that a deal would be struck that this was, in fact, a negotiating ploy. and yet we are here at the 11th hour, almost virtually, and we have nothing. >> yeah. and. >> it comes after a slew of, of

kind of a slow drip of negative us data over the last couple of weeks. so i think people are a lot less concerned about, you know, tariff implications on inflation than they are really on growth. and i think that's that's where we've come to. and the market. >> has. >> been telling stories or giving you signals about this. you know, for the. >> last, i would say three. >> weeks to a month. and the. >> volatility we're going. >> to talk to you later on in the show. i mean it's fascinating. if you meatloaf two out of three ain't bad. so one of your favorite songs if you're the market two out of three. is really bad. >> and you think two of the last. >> three days we've had big. big sell. >> offs, friday looks a little bit like. >> a mirage, and it. >> sets you up for. >> a payroll. >> number on. friday that suddenly looms. really large that that. >> you know, if you. >> see some deterioration in the job market that looks material, people will put it together with the concurrent jobless claims number we got last week. so be careful. >> yeah. >> that gets. >> to the if. >> you knew what it was going to say i don't even know. let's say we get a number that's weak for jobs. then you start to think,

all right well the fed is really back in play again. and it goes from actually it was up today i guess to two and change cuts. rather it would go up higher. that has historically the last couple of years been somewhat of a flaw. but maybe bad news becomes bad news i don't know. so i think something sort of right up the fairway is better right than a weaker number that would allow for cuts. >> i mean, it's interesting the argument that the fed put will be back in play if the jobs number is a disaster seems interesting given so many fed officials have said that we look through tariffs, they wouldn't be reactionary necessarily to policy. and so therefore you. >> say that we look through tariffs. >> like it's a it's a transitory sort of you know they wouldn't adjust policy just on the fact that tariffs are in place. >> i thought. >> they. >> were saying last time, we're going to wait to see what tariffs do and what effect that has, because that's what. >> i've heard. >> the transitory thing. >> i think it. >> was 5050. >> i think. >> 50% of. >> them said that they were going to preload. >> it. >> and say that it was going to be inflationary. >> and the other 50. >> 50% said, we'll wait and see what what it looks like once they're imposed. so but either way, when you look at it, is it

a carrot? is it a stick? we don't. >> we. >> don't know. but you kind of lose the, the stick if you just always say no, we're just going to. that's why he said that there's no way they could avoid it. because if he says there's a way to avoid it, the market is never going to trade on it. right. and is that clear or. no? >> well. >> why does he want. why does he want the market to trade on it though? why does he want to invoke. >> i don't think he wants the. >> market to. >> that's better. i could say it better. i think he. wants canada. >> and mexico. >> to react. this is about immigration and this is about. >> fentanyl. >> though it has nothing to do with the. market right now. >> mary barra. >> has avoided 50% of the tariffs. ford can't. and she said that without deploying any capital they can avoid 50% of the tariffs. i don't know how she's doing it, but maybe she should call farley. so there's a there's some companies that are going to be able to avoid it. some companies are going to have

to bring. their plants here. other companies are going to have to soft shoe it. she's figured out a way. >> well okay. well bringing companies, bringing manufacturing facilities here or this whole nearshoring thing that's inflationary. i mean, there are many scenarios in which the end result is higher prices. so is that's what we're digesting now. >> and that's what that's what markets are. >> trying to figure out. and even. >> the fed right i think in theory they're saying, yeah, we can look through this and we're just going to see how it plays out. but how do you actually weed that out from the data i think is the other question. right. and so i think when it comes to the fed, there is still that realistic possibility that they're going to look at some of these jobs. >> prints or. >> whatever the numbers are. >> and they might. >> still be able to. >> react. >> to that. and that's why you're starting. to see there's a higher chance of rate cuts happening later this year. and, you know, i. >> think. >> when it comes to this too, it's really affecting consumer sentiment. like you're looking at those i investor sentiment levels, bearish levels are above 60%, which is what it was a couple of years ago. so you're just getting whether it's investors, whether it's

consumers like people are just not willing. >> to put their money where their mouth is. >> and that, i think is the bigger concern than the tariffs themselves, is what is it doing to the consumer sentiment right now? and that's really what. >> you're seeing. i mean, we saw that in the sentiment numbers in terms of inflation expectations. >> but there's another sentiment number that i think is important, which is, you know, the animal spirits were released not just among investors but ceos and companies. right. and i think that this flip flop back and forth weighs on that. right? it weighs on that ability to say, all right, i'm really optimistic. let's spend let's grow the flip. >> flop with tariffs. >> there's not tariffs. now there are tariffs right i think that weighs. so like amari barra right. how do we think about running our business. it's complicated business between mexico canada and general motors. that's sort of a decent example that can't that can't be a positive for sentiment. so i feel like it's an additional tax. >> yeah. >> i think the biggest concern here is not about inflation though. the biggest concern here is about growth. and this is this is where if i was in charge of this show, i would i would suggest would you rather between

five and a quarter or three and a quarter tenure. what would you rather have if. >> i was doing. >> you would, you would rather five and a quarter. >> i would much rather five. >> and a quarter. and again, think. >> about that five and a quarter tenure. >> if we're thinking about this, a few weeks ago. >> we were at 480 on the ten year and people were losing it. >> and three and. >> a quarter is not a. >> good sign. i think the bond market. >> is telling. >> us a lot. >> i think the, the, the data profile that we've had tells us a lot. and companies like. >> gm. >> i think they are nervous. >> what they told us last week. >> is they want to buy back as. >> much. >> of. their stock as they can, because they think that's the best way to handle the current environment. >> i think if. >> you look at i. >> would, i would choose the. lower yield, because if you look at the investment. >> i'm sorry that i. >> started this game, that you didn't know. >> steve. i like that game. >> she went on. >> right. she she would. >> have stopped you. >> she would. >> have stopped you if she didn't like it. so i think you get the investment in ai. you get the investment in quantum's way off, but you get the investment in the united states, or you get the investment everywhere. people, you have clarity, right? so if you know

what rates are going to be, you know, in theory what you can buy. so are you going to buy real estate? the real estate market is locked up. commercial commercial real estate has been a safety bet. but if i get what tim is saying, that if rates are coming down out of weakness. yes, then then. >> there's that's what they're doing. >> then there's then there's an issue, then. there's an issue. but i. >> think. >> you don't think that this is a growth scare, a growth scare driving yields lower. >> no, no, i think it's because if you think about it, even if tariffs get put into place, i don't think anyone thinks that they're going to be in for very long. i think they're they're supposedly going to be let's even the playing field germany taxes our car our cars 10%. we tax there's a 2.5%. i think it's just leveling the playing field. >> but that that seems. >> to run counter. >> to your. view that. >> he. >> has to go through with this and he has to really go through it. >> oh, he has to go. he has to go through it. >> temporarily put. tariffs out there temporarily. >> i mean, no, he's. >> not pulling them back unless he gets some type of reciprocity on the other side. unless, unless canada says we're going to do more to stop the flow of fentanyl, unless mexico says we're going to do more to stop

illegals from coming across the border, those tariffs will be put out there, and they will stay until he gets the result he wants. >> okay. well, i mean, the bottom line is look at the. >> nasdaq, which is about which. >> could i don't. >> know that it's going to but it's very close to breaching the 200 day, the moving average, the long term. >> trend for the market for the. >> first. >> time since march. >> of 2023, it hasn't done that. and that's. >> that's that. >> tells me growth. scare growth. stocks are telling you they are very worried. >> about where we are. >> so let's get to the epicenter of that nasdaq plunge nvidia plunging more than 8% to close at its lowest level since september. the stock has erased nearly $1 trillion in market cap since hitting a record in early january, the move taking the rest of the chips along with it. the sm down nearly 4% today, nearly 7% so far this year. it already wasn't. it didn't recover the losses pretty deep from pre deep seek. and now we're even lower than that deep sea sell off that day. what do you make of this move on heavy volume by the way two bucks off the lows of the session. >> when we had the audience here

that night, i look back in february 3rd, you could look at a 113. >> low. >> in nvidia on a technical basis. that's the first plunge. it dipped below that today but closed above that on a closing basis. so i had posed do i think 90 or 1, 40 or 1 whatever it was 130 i went with 91st. and it's because if deep sea can do it cheaper, everyone could do it cheaper. whether or not they're getting chips, whether or not they're smuggling in chips, whether it doesn't matter the progression is they can do it cheaper. so that means that we don't need an h 100. we don't need a blackwell, we don't need a sophisticated large language model. others can do it just as good and a lot cheaper than nvidia. that has to put in question the buyer's remorse or future buyers of nvidia right now going forward for what they buy. >> i think the larger question, i don't want to move away from nvidia too quickly, but the larger question is can the tech trade continue without nvidia?

can your meta position and your google position be okay without nvidia participating? >> i think so, although they're correlated. for sure. right. they're very closely correlated. and money flows, even if the story and the underlying earnings are there, the money flows will leave them highly correlated still. but so you know i'm looking at. all right. well what can i buy. what's really gotten hurt before i would buy. and i'm long i'm always long. so you know a day like today or last few days really not delightful at all. but now i'm looking at what can i buy. and alphabet is very near the top of the list, right. the valuation is very low, which doesn't count. doesn't even take into account the massive cash hoard. so you're looking at something that trades well below the market multiple. that is, in my opinion, a extremely valuable, extraordinary company. and so that's something i'm going to be looking to buy. meta i already have a lot. but if i own none, absolutely looking to buy here as well. >> look, and i think we pointed. >> out that that 113 level,

which. >> is i. >> think where we. >> are in. >> the after hours market. >> i mean. >> you know, the dynamic around. >> video is this. >> is a company. >> is a great company seemingly firing on all cylinders to, to quote the journal. and they had an article out there too. but but it doesn't mean it can't. it can't be a bad stock. and arguably that's the dynamic here. >> i, i think if you own nvidia here or if. >> you go in there and buy it here, i think you can. >> ride through this. but i don't. >> doubt that it isn't going to continue to be choppy. >> and remember, meta. >> is part. >> of the launch. >> of meta really. >> and i mean, the shares. >> was also. >> they were kind of catalyzed by some. >> of that nvidia capex spend. >> they're the first mega cap tech company to really. >> start to price. >> a lot of that in. so i do think. >> that the market needs some of this strength. >> and as we've said for years now. semis have led the nasdaq, which have led the s&p. without that leadership, you're in trouble. >> if nvidia fails. sorry. if nvidia fails. >> it's better. >> for the other mag seven because they don't have to make the investment. so if nvidia fails, it's because. >> it doesn't. >> all right. so if nvidia fails, it's based on lower

investment needed by other companies to achieve the. >> same goal. companies not spending as much as a positive. >> for that. >> it doesn't have to spend 65 billion. google doesn't have to spend 85 billion. amazon doesn't have to spend 105 billion. so if you can do it for a lot cheaper, that capex gets put to work somewhere else or maybe doesn't get put to work. so now you have a lot more efficiencies for the shareholder. so i see a dynamic where nvidia failing is better for the mag seven. ultimately. >> as volatility expert sees a trend that points to more market weakness. mandy hsu is the firm's head of derivatives market intelligence. mandy, great to have you with us on a day like today. >> thanks, melissa. >> great to be here. huge spike in the vix. what is going on in your view. >> yeah. so i would agree with what tim was saying earlier that there's definitely. >> been a shift in the market over the past. >> couple of. >> weeks where initially. >> i would say. >> investors across both equity. >> and bond markets were treating. >> tariffs purely as a supply. >> side shock. >> right. looking at the inflationary impact of higher prices over the past 2 to 3 weeks, particularly in the bond market, we're starting to. >> see that growth concern. >> really come through in the in

the form of lower yields, in the form of more fed rate cuts being priced in. now, what's interesting to me is right now volatility yes is higher, but i think there's scope for it to go even higher because the way the options market is still pricing tariffs is as a stock specific catalyst, not as a macro catalyst. so it's still trying to pick out the winners and losers of the tariff policy. but with the bond market is signaling is that we're could be in for weaker growth potentially recession. and that as we know, is bad for all stocks. >> so thanks for being here. so okay so we've seen volatility tick up a lot to me. it doesn't feel panicky yet. what what is the number. that starts to reflect to you panic. >> sure i would say it's not doesn't feel panicky because investors have actually been hedging. so one of the things we've been highlighting, i think last time i was on the show, we're highlighting that we were seeing elevated hedging activity all throughout the past couple of months going into this. so i think that partly is the reason why we haven't seen panic. what i would look for is correlation in the market implied

correlation. and we have an index core one which goes hand in hand with the vix. and when that index really starts spiking higher that tells you that markets that the options market is pricing for a macro sell off. that usually is when the panic sets in. >> where are we right now on that. >> it's about 20 historical average 40 in periods of crisis can go up to 80 to 90. so we are well below average. >> what was it, for instance, over the summer when we saw the vix spike to 40 and we saw that major sell off. >> that was up above 40 okay. yeah for sure. yeah. >> mandy how. about three moves. >> that we've. >> had in the s&p. >> i mean there's a lot. >> of. >> different stats out there. but you can make an argument. the kind of volatility we've had over the last three days. >> up 2%. down 2% up 2%. >> we haven't seen this really since almost. >> the market was trying to find a bottom. >> in covid. and i just wonder whether this. >> should tell. >> us that the psychology of the market has changed. three days don't make a trend change, but the correlations you're talking about seem to me to be starting to take place. >> on the index level. >> yeah, i think the higher levels of intraday volatility. exactly to your point, right.

part of it i think is because of all this headline risk and the flip flopping, which you guys have talked about, how can investors trade this. so one of the things that we're really seeing is just increased volume in the options market as a way to manage risk in this environment where, you know, whenever a headline comes through, you don't know how long it's going to last, right. you know the tariffs going to get walked back the next day, the next month. we talk about that. so i think that's why we're seeing just, you know, record volumes not just in s&p options but across the board and actually record volumes, particularly with zero day options as a way to play that intraday volatility in the market. >> now speaking of all the. >> headlines, i think we've all gotten very used to seeing all these crazy headlines. but you're starting to see the markets actually maybe reacting a little less to them. right. like the first time tariffs were announced. big moves in volatility big moves in the market. but then as each level of tariffs was announced, markets are starting to kind of, you know, say it's the boy who cried wolf. i'm not sure if they should be worried about that. is there some sort of correlation with like initially when trump got in office versus now our market's moving any less on those headlines? >> i would almost say in my view

at least it feels it's the opposite. i feel like when trump first got elected, people didn't really know how seriously to take the tariff risk, right, because they looked at the first term. look, the first term wasn't so bad. it's trump 2.0 going to be like 1.0. and one of the things that we've been highlighting is that we think this time is actually going to be a lot different. and i think people are starting to realize that this time tariff is much bigger risk to markets and a much more serious part of the trump agenda. and in terms of market reaction, i think the really big reaction is going to come once we see the economic fallout or the economic impact. right? and keep in mind, this is happening at the same time as we're seeing large scale reductions in the federal workforce. what does that mean in terms of consumer spending? i think that's, you know, that's going to be key to watch. >> mandie, thanks for coming by i appreciate it. thank you. we've got a news alert here on an ai cloud computing startup planning an ipo. let's get to steve kovach for the details. steve. >> hey there. melissa, this is corey. they just filed their s-1 to go public. this is the company that takes nvidia gpus and other gpus and sells that computing power for ai applications. they actually started out as a crypto mining

company using those gpus before pivoting amid that ai boom. and i'll rattle off a few of the superlatives here in the s-1. $1.9 billion in revenue for 2024. they say that's up 730%, 37% year over year. they also say they have more than 250,000 of those gpus online to run these ai applications. but i will note so many of the hyperscalers we talk about, from microsoft to xai, from elon musk there, they're buying way more gpus than that. but they doe 32 data centers. they say that they can use to rent out this space. and they will be going public on the nasdaq. and we will see what they're trying to raise right now. but this is just coming in here. qawi filing under c r v on the nasdaq now. >> all right steve thanks. we will have much more on today's market sell off, including the impact on crypto retail and more coming up though overseas but under invested. while european markets could be as us big tech

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settlement call. now. >> welcome back to fast money. as us stocks struggle and big tech pulls back, european markets are showing some strength. germany's benchmark closing at new records today and european defense stocks surging after friday's oval office clash between president trump. vice president jd vance and ukrainian president volodymyr zelensky. the european aerospace and defense etf hitting record highs here. and we've been talking a lot about this. the industry makeup of the european indices favor x tech which. >> is it's amazing. and again some. >> of this really is rotation that i think. >> was happening. and it was a dynamic because european bourses are certainly underexposed to getting that technology exposure. some of this. truly are the events that. have been going around. if you look at the fed's etfs, the fees that. covers the euro stoxx 50, that's outperformed the s&p. >> by 18% since all the way back in november, 18%. so i mean, you look at. >> companies like siemens, it's a large position. >> in idaho, which. >> is an international etf. >> i mean, this is a story where they're exposed to defense. they're exposed. >> across the manufacturing

space. we had a. >> manufacturing number in germany. that's still somewhat. >> contracting, but it's the best in. >> 25 months. so economies across europe weren't counted for anything. >> spain is really. >> cruising and it's up 20%. i think you stay. >> there. >> because value works in an environment. >> like this. >> more than growth. >> yeah, i think a lot of this rotation and the fact that the negativity, i think was overly done when it comes to europe, especially as trump came in office, everyone just kind of threw that aside. but there's a lot of opportunity there. and i think there's actually a lot of talk of deregulation. so the auto space is in the news today because of what's happening with tariffs. but i think a story that was not as publicly seen was volkswagen was actually up today a lot because emissions tests are actually going to come down for them where they're lessening regulations. company is actually more profitable. so i think you're starting to see some inklings of that. and that's where europe is going to absolutely be a good play, especially at these valuations. >> i think one other thing going on in europe has been the hope of a ceasefire and the end to the ukraine, the russia, ukraine war and that that would be obviously cheaper energy, which would be the heart of everything there. so i feel like even though that is uncertain right

now, what the outcome. >> will be. >> it's still has somewhat of a floor there. all right. >> there's a lot more fast money to come. here's what's coming up next. >> first a pop, then a drop. bitcoin and other digital assets pulling back after a weekend rally. how president trump's crypto reserve plans could affect the space. plus uncertainty ahead. our next guest says the economy is gagging on haphazard policymaking out of washington. what it all means for future us growth. you're watching fast money. live from the nasdaq market site in times square. market site in times square. we're back right after this. ♪ in any business, you ride the line between numbers and people. what's right for the business and what's best for everyone who depends on it. solving today's challenges while creating future opportunities.

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footwork. so i went hands free with wide fit skechers slip ins. just step in and go without bending down or touching my shoes. wide fit, hands free skechers slip ins. >> for me. squawk box. >> is breakfast with the. >> most interesting people in. >> the world. >> it's a. >> privilege to. >> get to talk to them every day. >> it's more. >> entertaining than any other morning. >> show, but. >> you might get some useful information. >> squawk box weekday morning, 6:00 am eastern cnbc. >> wow. >> welcome back to fast money bitcoin retreating from its weekend. highs today down more than 8%. that after the president's comments about a strategic crypto reserve sent prices soaring on sunday. cnbc's mackenzie sigalos joins us now with the full story here. mackenzie. and i think the surprise was the addition of these other tokens, coins that were not bitcoin or ethereum. >> exactly. and that's why you're seeing not just bitcoin falling. but also. >> a. >> lot of those pro. crypto stocks coinbase, robinhood, strategy and riot all closed lower, lower. erasing gains from

trump's crypto reserve announcement. now, initial excitement has given way. >> to the tougher. >> question of what would it actually. >> take to implement? now, the biggest. >> shift is that trump is no longer talking. >> about a. >> stockpile where the u.s. would simply hold seized crypto assets. >> but a reserve, which likely. >> means actively buying and managing digital assets. >> with taxpayer dollars. >> and this is a massive. >> step up in complexity. likely requiring congressional approval. >> clear oversight on asset allocation, and decisions on whether. purchases happen through a centralized. >> exchange like coinbase. now. >> initially, investors saw the potential for a government backed reserve to create. >> a price floor. >> for crypto, adding stability. but now they're grappling with the scale. >> of what's being proposed. >> meanwhile. >> bitcoin. >> after hitting 95. >> k over the. >> weekend, has slipped back to 85 k, which is where it was on friday as investors absorb a wave of white house. >> updates, including those new tariffs set to take effect at midnight. >> it seems like the more you add to it in terms of the complexity, the more there is room for conflicts of interest. number one, i mean, if you're

going to set up an active manager to this and you're adding all these other coins, then the conflicts increase, right? i mean, that's part of the complexity. i would imagine that there's some backlash. >> no. exactly. and i think that people are looking at connections that the president has to some of these tokens. you've got. >> ripple. >> which is the company behind xrp, donating $5 million. >> in that token. >> to the president's inaugural fund. he's been spending a lot of time with a lot of the executives behind these cryptocurrencies. and at the end of the day, when you think of like a strategic reserve, you think of gold, petroleum, even grain that serve a strategic purpose. >> and then you have these. >> you have these cryptocurrencies that were added. >> cardano. >> solana. these function like high growth tech stocks. >> which don't. >> serve the same purpose as a sovereign asset on the country's balance sheet. >> right? mackenzie. thank you. mackenzie. sigalos. what did you make of this? the swing. the massive swing that we saw. >> well, so solana, for example, was one went from 140 to 1 80 to 140. so that's a pretty gigantic move. >> it was interesting. >> to me to see the. rift within the community of various crypto

interests. >> about whether. >> he should be doing this or not, how to implement it. but so i. >> think it's sort. >> of i don't know, it's somewhat tarnishes the coin. if you could do that to a digital coin, i think it, it, it doesn't clarify. >> the message, which i think is. >> what people are hoping. >> yeah. and it just when you start to look at the bull case on bitcoin is always the limited supply. but when you look at this we're not going to be the only government buying. there's already other reserve banks that are buying. small amount of countries have already started to buy bitcoin. but to karen's point when it's bitcoin and ether it centralizes to two spots. once you start throwing all the other coins out there, it mitigates because everyone rushed into bitcoin. now they have to sell bitcoin and buy the other ones, because the bang for your buck is going to be much higher with the other coins than it is for bitcoin where it is now. >> yeah, i agree with that. i think ultimately. >> if you look at the ancillary bitcoin plays and whether it is. a coinbase. >> or a.

>> robinhood, you know they're trading. >> in sympathy more around. >> risk because i ultimately think that this this is very good for coinbase. i mean ultimately you want to. >> broaden. >> the playing. >> field beyond these instruments. >> you want people trading multiple digital assets. and i think that's good for coinbase. >> coming up gagging economy where our next guest is worried about quote haphazard policymaking out of d.c. and how more terrorists could impact markets when fast money returns back into. >> the. you make good. >> choices, always planning ahead. like to not just chase a career, but one day. follow your heart. with ambition like that, you need someone who elevates advice to a craft. at ubs, we match your vision with insight and expertise to shape a unique outcome for you. advice is our craft. >> at the mizuho. americas open accommodation and.

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starts. that's my secret to better odor control everywhere. >> welcome back to fast money stocks selling off hard into the close. after president trump confirmed tariffs on mexico and canada will go into effect tomorrow, the dow dropping nearly 650 points, the s&p down more than 1.5%, and the tech heavy nasdaq leading the losses down more than 2.5%. taiwan semi dropping more than 4%. today, president trump and the semi giant announcing a $100 billion investment in u.s. chip manufacturing. the new capital brings taiwan's semi's total investment in the u.s. to $165 billion at&t meantime, bucking today's drop up a percent shares hitting their highest level in five years, up nearly 22% this year so far. and shares of tesla starting the day in the green but ending down about 3%. morgan stanley's adam jonas naming the

ev stock a top pick in the us auto space, saying they see more than 50% upside in the name. and shares of fti aviation down another 8% today. short seller muddy waters putting out a report saying the company could be violating u.s. sanctions against iran. analysts at stifel also downgrading this name. meantime, president trump confirming 25% tariffs on canada and mexico will go into effect tomorrow. the news sending the wc and ww etfs tracking the country's down more than a percent. our next guest says the tariffs could be costly for the us economy and gdp growth. let's bring in moody's analytics chief economist mark zandi. mark, great to have you with us. >> good to be with you. >> so it's no longer just inflationary. it is. we're going the next step inflationary. and the impact on on growth at this point. >> yeah. >> not it's not only about. >> the tariffs. >> it's about cuts. and it's about. >> you know, what's going. >> on with the potential

government shutdown. >> it's about the treasury debt limit. it's you know, a whole range of things that are adding to the uncertainty. i think it's weighing on business investment decisions. the consumers are getting nervous. you could see it in the sentiment surveys. and now investors are getting nervous, which you can see in the stock market and in the bond yields coming back in. so i think there's just a high level of angst and that's starting to weigh on things. you know i don't think people are pulling back. that would be obviously a recession. but they are beginning to become more cautious sitting on their hands, almost just like the fed, the fed saying, hey, look, i'm not going to cut interest rates or do anything with policy until i get better clarity around economic policy. i think that's kind of the attitude of businesses and consumers more broadly, and that means the economy is starting to really throttle back here. it just feels very increasingly fragile to me. >> have things changed enough for you to see fed cuts this year? >> we could. yeah. i mean in my baseline before, you know, if

you go back a couple weeks ago, we had two rate cuts. one in september, one in december, thinking that the higher inflation would keep the fed on the sidelines and then weaker growth later in the year would cause the fed to cut. but, you know, if the economy does start to weaken here more than i anticipated, it does feel like it's going in that direction. obviously, a lot depends on the administration, what policies they pursue here. but if the economy does weaken, then yeah, the fed would be cutting rates sooner in an effort to keep the economy up despite the inflationary pressures that are developing because of the tariffs. so it's a you know it's a tough spot for the fed. right. what do they do with this. i mean do they raise rates because of the inflation and the effects on inflation expectations which we can see. or do they cut rates and in response to the weaker economy. and that's why this is so difficult for the federal reserve and why it's so tough on the economy. >> hey mark, it's tim and the sentiment. >> around confidence. and this is something that karen referenced. it sounds to me this is also weighing into into. >> your uncertain view. but i'd like to go into the job market.

so we. >> got. >> a huge payroll number on friday. and if you think about what. >> forced the fed. >> to do 50 when it came out of. >> the gate, that. >> at least a lot of. >> people after. >> afterwards, and at least as we got into this year, said, boy, that was too much. but the. >> job market really is what. >> this is about. i'm just. can you weigh in on what you're expecting here? it's, it's tough to. feel that the job market's going to fall out of bed overnight, but it might not take a lot. >> yeah i don't know that we'd see this weakness show up in the job numbers for the month of february, which is what we're going to get on friday. it's just feels a little premature. i mean, sales are weak. you know, home sales are down, retail sales are down, manufacturing production is down. unemployment claims are starting to push up. but it feels a little premature. so if you told me, tim, we got another 150 k this this month in this data i'd say that sounds about right. that'd be consistent with stable unemployment, around 4%. but you know, another month of this uncertainty, you know, if we're in the same place three, four weeks from now as we are today, and people are trying to grapple with all the things that are going on with regard to tariffs and dose cuts and everything

else. and by that time, we've got a government shutdown on our doorstep. you know, i do think we'll start to see it showing up in the labor market. we'll see more layoffs and we'll see less hiring, and we'll see weaker job growth. >> mark. >> thanks for joining us tonight. we appreciate it. >> yeah. any time. >> mark zandi of moody's how do you i mean, it's interesting he mentioned the milieu of factors involved here in terms of why we're seeing the sell off. >> yeah, we also had that big run up too. right. so we had a big run up. it was pretty loaded run up. but we know one thing. corporations taxes are not going higher. right. there was thought there was thought they could be going higher than 21%. they're not going higher. there's a lot of investments around cafe standards that autos had to make, and companies had to make that they do not have to make right now to the tune of billions, tremendous amount of uncertainty. but that's what markets do, right? they climb the wall and hopefully this will be weeks, not months. >> here of you caught. >> yeah. i think one thing that you don't want to get lost in the markets today is not

everything was down right. like health care was up. consumer staples were up, real estate was up. like there are still places in the market that are still holding up. and that's really been happening all year. there's been this rotation, there's been this change in leadership. so just because some industries are going to be affected by tariffs or some industries are worried about the uncertainty, it's not a bad thing for the markets as a whole. reminder look at your investments. which one of those are holding up and where are some opportunities. >> but to mandy's point, once everything is correlated, right. and there aren't those safe havens, that's when the trouble really begins. >> i couldn't. >> really find very many safe havens of mine today. >> in your portfolio. >> a couple, i mean, but not many. >> well, it's. >> some irony. mexico has been a safe haven against the us. the uww. >> which is the etf that tracks. >> mexico that also imputes the currency. is outperforming the s&p by 7% year to date. >> tell me up retail earnings roll on with target reporting tomorrow before the bell with a big box giant hit the bullseye for investors. or could results miss the mark. we'll debate that straight ahead. more fast money right after this. >> in a world of uncertainty and

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luxury analyst oliver chen. he's also adjunct professor of retail at columbia. professor chen, welcome to the show. thanks. >> it's a pleasure. >> to be here. target should be really interesting. it's going to be the first retailer reporting earnings after the tariffs have officially been put into place. what are we expecting in terms of the earnings. which we had a sort of a glimpse of already, but also the commentary and impact of tariffs. >> yeah melissa we're cautious on the consumer. cautiously optimistic. the consumer. >> continues to. >> be very. >> choiceful and looking for bargains. we're recommending walmart and costco, which offer a stronger. value proposition and simply a lot more food. >> target's been. >> under a lot more. pressure because so much of the portfolio is discretionary. and what they really need to do to improve the comp store sales is increase pricing. they're having problems in the home category and electronics. and as you think about walmart versus target, walmart's over 50% food. at target's it's about 20%. so we'll get an update here. jim lee is a new cfo. that will be

interesting. most likely. as you know, when there's new management guidance can be more conservative. also, walmart is growing earnings faster than sales. that is not happening at target. and the big focus fundamentally is on the operating margin. but as you know target and target they've been famous for. great brands. so the story will be about product two and about this consumer and about this topic of tariffs where the consumer confidence has been very volatile and declining. so it's something we're watching and we're watching egg prices too. and dairy right. >> so at little under. >> 14 times earnings it's. >> not expensive. >> but what i'm afraid i don't own target i do own walmart. what i'm afraid could happen. >> with target is maybe they have a. >> nice quarter as walmart did, but have to come out with some sort of, you. >> know, moderating. >> guidance, something that just because of uncertainty. >> yeah. >> the preference. >> should be. >> for. >> management to be. >> conservative and then beat. >> and raise throughout the year. >> wall street. >> is looking for about a plus 1

to 2% comp for next year. so that's something we'll focus on. the other focus is operating margins. but it's been a really tough time to own all stocks in q4 because of guidance in this time of unprecedented volatility. so to be determined, but there's a lot of work in progress, very specifically, operationally. the home category needs shorter lead times. and we're seeing a new consumer or the demand is fluctuating faster than ever before. >> what did we learn from the last time we had tariffs in place? i mean i know a lot lots of change in terms of supply chains and reorganizing the supply chain away from china. some have moved to mexico. i mean, to offset that. and here we are in the crosshairs with mexico tariffs. and so i'm wondering, you know, are we in a place where we will almost certainly see prices increase in your view. because there's also the dynamic where prices on tariff goods will increase in other goods, even unaffected by tariffs could also increase price but less than the tariff

good price. in order to capture that additional dollar. >> yeah, very. >> likely for retailers to need to increase prices because in our industry within walmart, target, costco, it's a very low margin business. so passing through to consumers half or more in terms of potential increases. the other part of this is who's relatively more impacted and less impacted of targets, about 50% sourced from abroad. so as you think about the non-food retailers, it's tougher. i would also say we like luxury goods, in part because of the pricing leverage. and also we've had very good consumers at the very high end. so the wealth effect the last 12 months of s&p, that's been good for the wealthy consumer. and an interesting part of this whole debate is walmart is getting wealthier consumers. we just hosted our beauty and luxury conference, and walmart is introducing all kinds of new brands to their stores. well, and you don't they have a more advanced curbside pickup delivery walmart plus mechanism happening there. so it will also look for technology update,

specifically target circle marketplace digital advertising. >> all right oliver thank you. yeah. my pleasure. we've got a news alert in american airlines and jetblue. phil lebeau has got the details. hey, phil. >> melissa, this is a piece of news that skated under everybody's eyes. it was filed thursday afternoon. american airlines asking the u.s. supreme court to reverse an appellate court decision that essentially, you know, it dissolved the northeast alliance. that alliance was dissolved in 2023 between american and jetblue. now, american is asking the supreme court to reverse that decision, saying that the judge misapplied the law that this alliance between jetblue and american delivered consumer benefits, and therefore it should be reinstated. we should point out, melissa, this was filed by american by itself. this was not filed by american and jetblue. we have reached out to jetblue waiting to hear if they have a comment on this. but again, american asking the u.s.

supreme court to reverse the decision to dissolve the northeast alliance. melissa, back to you. >> phil. thank you. phil lebeau. coming up, a brutal day on wall street with the major indices all selling off. but will the carnage continue through the week? how our traders are preparing for tomorrow when fast money returns. >> total energy use has been hunting for the best entrepreneurs across africa to tackle energy poverty. farmers are highly dependent on rainfall, but water is scarce with drought. our solution is mobile solar containers for off grid farmers, which uses ai to make irrigation more efficient. being an entrepreneur is not an easy task. you have to have faith that a door will open. ubuntu means unity. this is how ubuntu means unity. this is how we're going to fight climate at ameriprise financial we know our clients are so much more than clients. they're conquerors and champions, parents and caretakers, believers and breadwinners. the goals that matter most to you matter most to us.

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>> that's my secret to better odor control everywhere. >> welcome back to fast money, another check on today's sell off losses accelerating into the close after president trump confirmed tariffs on mexico and canada will take effect tomorrow. the s&p, down 1.8% for its biggest one day drop since september. excuse me. december. the dow losing 650 points, while the nasdaq slid more than 2.5%, erasing all gains since election day. so given this tough tape, what is the first thing you should be doing tomorrow? tim, what do you say? >> i'm excited to look at my buy list and just test my thesis and look at those levels again. obviously when stocks go down, it's like, oh, i wanted to buy it here. do i still want to buy it here? and i think you have to ask yourself what has changed over the last week in terms of your thesis. and if it is reliant on a growth thesis, has that changed? i'm not sure that it has. but again, check your lists and sharpen it up and be ready.

>> how about you, cort? >> yeah. and i think what i look at markets, i think a lot of this is the knee jerk reaction of just the reality check that tariffs are actually going to come into play. but i'm not overly worried about this being like a bigger drop. and i think you want to look at this as an opportunity. but the bigger thing i see is that the markets have been broadening. there's still plenty of opportunities. so we'll be talking to clients. if you have cash on hand, we're going to be buying. if there's clients who are concentrated, who have not been willing to take some risk off, we are going to absolutely be looking to broaden out. >> so you would think that we did this show and we did this segment. so the market's probably going to rip higher tomorrow. so if it does it does. if it doesn't it doesn't. but i think you need something for a rainy day. so the real the real estate select. it's a it's a mouthful i like that. it's got it's got roughly a 3% yield to it. then you could buy staples. you're getting yield there. you could buy utilities. you're getting yield there. just so you have something for a rainy day and a red day like today. just so you have something you can tuck away. >> and we saw those typical safe havens do well today. i mean we mentioned at&t. kraft heinz is also higher. mondelez. >> so right.

>> so the. first thing. >> don't panic right. >> i always. >> like i like a turnaround tuesday where we open down. >> a lot. >> and then it starts to get really panicky. i love to see things trading integers at a time, because that just tells me someone's selling for all kinds of reasons. but to me, you know, i'm going to look at alphabet right here. >> up next, final trades. >> next. >> i don't want to be a heretic in a market that's gaga for nvidia. but i think bonds represent safety in a world where the president, not inflation, has become the chief impediment to higher stock prices. too many companies can prices. too many companies can be tariffed. there's just way business. it's not a nine-to-five proposition. it's all day and into the night. it's all the things that keep this world turning. it's the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. trust. hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. powering more businesses than anyone.

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that's the department i work in. alright, enough of that. tools designed to help them outperform the markets. meet them at interactive brokers investors marketplace for advisors. advisors at interactive brokers keep all they earn on our low cost platform with no ticket fees or custody charges, low margin rates, and high interest earned on idle cash to get better results, get a better platform. the best informed investors choose interactive brokers. >> final trade is sponsored by interactive brokers. the best informed investors choose interactive brokers. >> back for the final trade. tim. >> we talked about europe and again, siemens, one of the largest industrial companies in europe, kind of the ge of europe. siemens. >> karen it's good enough for the e block. it's good enough for the f block.

>> final trade. >> alphabet google. >> courtney. >> we talked a lot about europe, not about china. i think just abroad is still looking really attractive. the mci is a way to play the chinese markets here. >> stephen i looked for something green today. i found it in cigna. so cigna is going to be the final track. >> all right. thanks for watching fast money. see you back here tomorrow at five for more fast mad money with jim cramer starts right now. >> my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to cramerica. i don't make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain, but to teach. and i'm telling you, i'll do a lot of teaching tonight. so call me at one 800 743 cnbc or tweet me jimcramer. tough days do not last forever. but when they come along you need to know how to respond. you need a game plan ready. so you