>> wells fargo. i think the banks in general are a buy. and this one has a cost cutting story, an asset cap lift story and strong reserves 14 times earnings as well. >> all righty. we will track this very interesting market into the close. see what happens throughout the afternoon. we'll be on headline watch as well. and i will see you on the bell at 3:00. >> thank you scott. >> and welcome to the. >> exchange i'm. >> kelly evans. and stocks are. >> selling off. again today. >> as the. president's 25%. >> tariffs on canada. >> and. mexico go. >> into. >> effect. >> along with another 10% on china. >> all three. >> countries pursuing retaliatory. >> measures, which the president just said on truth social, will. >> result in an. >> immediate increase of a like amount. >> by us. now, the s&p at. >> one. point seeing its biggest. >> pullback so far this year. that builds on. yesterday's almost 2% drop. the nasdaq is down about 10%. >> from its recent highs. >> and get this. >> only the. dow is still

positive since trump. >> was elected. >> and. >> just barely. >> while several. retailers are under. >> pressure today. including best buy and. >> target, that's for a mix of. >> tariff and consumer reasons. >> what does it all mean. >> for consumers and for the fed? >> that's where. >> we start. >> here in the studio with me is. >> kkr head of. >> global macro balance sheet and risk henry mcveigh. and cnbc senior. >> economics reporter. steve liesman joins us from washington. it's great to have you. >> both here. steve. >> just kick it off for us on the latest odds. >> i guess they're saying the fed's. >> not going to be stuck. we're pricing. >> in what. >> three cuts at this point. >> yeah pretty aggressive kelly and good afternoon. what we're looking at here is three cuts now priced in beginning. hang on i want to give you a fresh quote here. there you go. beginning already in june for the first 1st july for the second one. and then we have a third one priced in around october. right now that's where we're at in terms of where the funds rate is looking at. i have my concerns with the timing of that, kelly, because i think the fed has to

make sure that it sees the tariff impact pass through. and now you hear president trump threatening additional tariffs on top of his tariffs here. so where this all shakes out and when it hits the index it would be very strange for the federal reserve to announce a quarter point rate cut in a month that say for example, the cpi went up by a percentage point because of tariffs. >> exactly. so let's bring. henry in on. >> that note. >> and you were. >> just in mexico. >> were. >> you not? yeah. >> as a, as a on a fact finding mission. >> yeah. >> what are the facts. what can you. >> tell us. >> i'd say the facts are a couple fold. one is, is that mexico is seeing a. >> substantial slowdown since the tariffs. >> some companies. >> have pulled back. >> on capex. >> so they're. >> feeling just. >> under the. >> threat originally. >> because today. >> is the first day we're actually. >> seeing it. the one thing i would comment. we own 150. >> businesses around the world. >> there's a lot. >> of planning that. goes into this. >> and so what i would say is you you saw companies. >> such. >> as. >> tesla and. >> others start. >> to pull back a while ago. so you're. >> seeing that capex. >> slowdown really.

>> manifest itself right now. >> the second was. >> is that. >> the mexican. government and the citizens of that. >> country. >> i think they really want. >> to. >> work towards a deal. so i would i think a lot of. times everybody says. tariffs and they, you. >> know, throw up their hands. >> you really got to dissect it. >> mexico i think will try to come to some agreement with the us. they really want to focus on the fentanyl issue as well as crime as well as immigration. i think with china, we're moving in a very different. direction where there's been more of a. strategic kind of ratcheting up of tariffs, and there's. >> more of a. >> competitive threat. >> like, you know, you got the taiwan announcement yesterday, taiwan semi announcement yesterday. the industries that they're targeting today are. >> in the defense. space and around. >> the. taiwan issue as well. so it feels. as if. we're kind of strategically decoupling. >> i think so. >> and then i would put. >> europe in the middle. i mean one thing we spend a lot of time on with our companies is. >> we're obviously. >> judging in demand. if you go back to 2018 when president trump first did tariffs, we built resiliency in our portfolio companies. so you had to think about supply. >> chains that. >> got turbocharged during covid when. >> you had to force. >> also the first time around

that resiliency was often to move product to mexico. so now when you're saying, well, it can't be china, but it can't be mexico, but you know, southeast asia. >> well, i think i think what's happening. >> is. is most companies have multiple outlets where they can get production. we had one company pre covid that had one supplier in asia. today that same company has 4 to 5. so some of that's in the us, some of that's in southeast asia. some of that may be in europe mexico. so i. think what you've seen is supply chains have become much more diversified. that was really accelerated during during covid. so i'm not here to say it's not going to have an impact. but i do think that in terms of getting supplies to market, that will help. what's different this time is president trump last time did really. create a tiering with china, where he said he had different kind of escalations on the tariffs. there were four buckets. this time. it's been across the board. that's a that's a difference. our overall view at kkr has been that tariffs would go from about 4% of imports to about 11%. that's our base case that we've had in our models as we work through

our portfolio companies. so we're not you know, we're not waking up today saying, oh my goodness, this is a surprise. we've been forecasting that and trying to optimize that. >> so do you think the market reaction makes sense here? and of course it comes kind of in conjunction. and at the same time as we're talking about consumer weakening, we're talking we were talking yesterday about a slowdown coming in the back half of the year. so it's like a perfect. >> storm i'd make two points. >> one is. >> the market's. >> been up 50% the past two years. i think we all need to take a breath. we're down 1 or 2% year to date and europe's up ten and mexico is up. the second thing is more tactical which we don't do at kkr. but if i put on my old lens, what i would say is bonds are actually rallying today. the dollar is weaker and break even. expectations are actually coming down. to steve's point, the market is discounting slower growth. it's not saying we're going to have a structural inflation problem. >> i think good. >> if you want the fed to do. >> something. >> some of that gets back to what we were saying about the diversification of supply chain. so i think the near term reaction is really around growth. my view is this isn't the end of the isn't the end of

the cycle. i think we, you know, may have spent some time on this. there's still a pretty good productivity story taking place in the us. this clearly is sands in the gears of globalization, but i don't think it comes as a total surprise. >> steve, what would you add to that? >> well, if we knew what policy was going to be and had some certainty about that, you could pick your suppliers, you could make your investments. the trouble is that it's unclear. for example, i thought commerce secretary howard lutnick was very unclear this morning in talking about the purpose of the tariffs. he talked long about the issue of being about fentanyl, and then he made by himself several times within the same sentence into talking about the trouble of cars being u.s. cars being sold in, in the united states, but made in canada. and why is that? so? it's unclear if the purpose of these particular tariffs are to bring the entire car industry now in canada back into the united states, or it's about

fentanyl and the trouble, i think, kelly, when i look at the uncertainty indices that are out there, i am amazed at how excited and optimistic business was to invest under president trump. you had the s&p up seven percentage points. and while yeah, the market was up 50 points or 50% over whatever period of time there, all of that wealth has been wiped out since the inauguration. $178 billion has come off of the s&p. this is very dumb policy kelly. we have snatching. president trump is snatching defeat from the jaws of his own victory. and i'm also concerned that it goes beyond tariffs and creates a broader uncertainty about investing. i think the gentleman from kkr is absolutely right. there's a good productivity story in this country. but that productivity story only happens on the back of capital investments. and i'm very afraid about the confidence and the trust that's been eroded here.

>> you sound like trudeau, steve. his quote today was it's not in my habit to agree with the wall street journal, but they point out, donald, that even though you're a very smart guy, this is a very dumb thing to do. so it was just eerily reminiscent. henry, let me just give you a chance to respond or. >> a couple of points. one thing is the way you manifest tariffs in the in the markets is through currencies. and a lot of times we're focusing on equities. the greatest volatility we've had over the past six months has been the currency. >> markets shot higher. >> yeah materially higher. and so i would not discount that. that's the way what steve said we'll play out. the second point is if you look at the publicly available data the ism manufacturing came out first. let's say it's been below 50 for 26 months. and actually since he's talked about tariffs, it's actually gone above 50. so that seems a little bit odd. but when you look. >> at it yesterday's. >> wasn't great. >> but it was. >> a you had 26 months below 50. it's hard to hurt yourself falling. >> out of the basement. >> what's amazing is we were. >> we were two years below 50 while doing the massive investment and build out across the country that you think would spur some kind of overall

manufacturing. >> but that's. >> because of because. >> of productivity. >> one thing, one sex. >> steve. okay, sure. >> the what is really important though on the data, the new orders, prices paid went way up, signaling the concern that steve highlighted. and second is some of the actual new orders went down. so over time, if you don't create policy, it. gives guidance to corporations. we're a proxy for that, right? we've got 150 businesses around the world. we are having to navigate this. people do need guidance on which way to go. american companies can execute very well, particularly with some of the things we're doing. but you've got to have guidance on where you want to go. >> is the guidance now that this is for real, that the uncertainty is over, and the certainty is that that tariffs are now in place. or do you think that we're still all waiting to see if tomorrow brings new headlines or this, you know, sheinbaum announces something and then the tariffs come off. which would be better. >> i think we've been if. >> they stay or that they come off after a few. >> days, i think we've been of the camp that they will use this to achieve their their political goals, and there will be some economic consequences for that. so i, i'm not in the camp that

all the tariffs are going to come off. i think we've talked about this at kkr, this regime change, heightened geopolitics, bigger deficits, messy energy transition, stickier services inflation. those things are. >> here. >> to stay. that happens since covid and that kind of that regime change has been playing out since. the fed is going to miss their mandate for six years in a row. they told you that's what they told you. so if you believe what steve said, you actually would say it's longer than than than six years. so that's anybody invested in 2010 to 2019, the fed missed their mandate 80% of the time. so it's an absolute completely opposite. and so what does that lead to. we're doing more in infrastructure right. more in things asset based finance, more things that are linked to collateral that actually have appreciation or on the private equity side, do more things where you have employee ownership or operational improvements. i think just buying high priced companies, either public or private, that peaked in 2020 when the fed went all in on quantitative easing at extraordinary levels that were probably unnecessary in hindsight. >> so you don't think that's coming back? and of course,

we're seeing the collapse of that latest balloon today. steve, a final word, sir. >> very quickly, most economists believe that as a result of the 2018 tariffs, manufacturing went into a recession in 2019. so we'll see how that plays out this time. the other thing is my objections are not with any of the objectives of the administration. it's the process here. and it feels like the things that are the objectives that are trying to be achieved here could be done much less costly at much, much, with much less chaos attached to it in a way that would be positive for business and would affirm the initial optimism that greeted president trump upon election. >> all right, there's the economic policy uncertainty index spiking steve, thank you. really appreciate it. today steve liesman down in washington henry, stick around for just a moment. i want to bring in our diana olick for a look at the fallout all of this is having on the housing market, and what treasury secretary is saying about it, diana. >> well, kelly. >> the industry stocks. >> are reacting, of course, today. let's start with the home

building etf. >> that's itv. it's off. its lows of the day but. >> still in. >> the. >> red slightly. >> the nation's. >> largest home builders were solidly red earlier. >> in the day. >> but recovered. >> late morning. >> lumber futures are, of course. >> higher given the news on the 25% tariff on canada. >> there is already a. >> 14.5% duty on canadian lumber, so this will end up being total of a close to about 40%. now, one third of the lumber used in u.s. home building comes from canada. drywall, or it's called gypsum, is largely made in china and mexico. so you'll see prices go up there, too. a builder industry trade group representing the big public builders said the tariffs will increase the cost of a new home anywhere from 7500 to $10,000 per home. now the chief economist at realtor.com today said that the entire market, including existing homes, could get hit as well. by all this, danielle hill said we may see builders, willing buyers willingness to pay rise for existing homes as newly built homes get pricier, which would

mean rising prices for existing homes too. now, on the flip side, mortgage rates have moved lower in the last few weeks and sharply today, with the 30 year fixed dropping ten basis points to 6.64%. that's the lowest since october, all according to mortgage news daily. and as kelly said, treasury secretary mnuchin said in an interview on fox news today, one of the biggest wins for the american people is since election day and since inauguration, mortgage rates have come down dramatically. so, kelly, they have come down. but the question is, are they going to offset these higher prices that we're going to see for both new and existing homes? and i don't think it will. >> dana, stay right there. i was struck by a comment the other day from one investor who said he's much more comfortable owning bonds than stocks right now, and doesn't that summarize the market and how much things have changed in just a few short months time? >> yeah, look, to me, credit has become a more competitive asset class. there are a couple of things going on. one is this higher resting heart rate for inflation. and then second is productivity. the fed is

probably is never going back to a zero bound on on short rates. and so that's the short end of the curve. i think what scott bessent is saying is actually really important. he is working to get the long end of the curve down. we actually don't have any manufacturing and construction job growth right now, and we can see it in our business. mortgage rates above seven. things slow down dramatically. mortgage rates below seven activity picks up. and so. >> even at 6.6 you think that makes a difference. >> it definitely makes a difference. and so we've had an economy that's been driven all by services goods. actually we haven't had any jobs and we've barely had any inflation. as services slows, i think what scott bessent and others are saying is we need some pickup in the cyclical parts of the economy, particularly if we're going to have some consternation in autos. and so he made this comment several weeks ago about really focusing on the ten year. yeah, there's a signal in that. it's a very important signal for the for the for the economy. >> someone i can't remember who said it the other day that the fed's in charge of the short end, but elon musk is in charge of the long end. i think others

might say, well, bessent has been in charge of the long end to some. i mean, who is in charge of the long end? is it is it the government cuts? i mean, you've talked about productivity. >> i think it's ultimately scott bessent. i mean, the treasury dictates where we issue on the curve when they want to come to market. i think he's put forth a very good game plan on trying to get the deficit down. how do you think about producing more oil and really driving productivity in the us? so i actually one of the things that we had said is that people we were much more worried about bonds rallying than selling off. there's a lot of consternation out there about. >> not many people. worry about bonds rallying. >> but yeah, about stagflation that remember a couple of weeks ago that was all the concern. we got to 485 on the ten year. and i think what we're saying is just let let cooler heads prevail. ultimately, i don't think we're going to go through 5%. and i do think there's some things going on in this government. there's a lot of hand-waving around tariffs. i do think in terms of what the secretary treasury is doing is doing a fabulous job there, and i would expect that he finds a way to get the mortgage rates down, because i think that's

important to the initiative. >> diana, if henry's right, like you said, they've got visibility into the sector. 6.6% of the mortgage rate may not sound that exciting, but it will make a difference. could help on the margin. at least. >> it could help on the margin a little bit. but you have to offset it against these higher costs for housing. when you look at the builders, a lot of people have been going to new construction because there's so little supply on the existing home market. and as the builders have to absorb these higher costs, of course they're going to pass them on to the consumer. and the nahb did a survey recently that said, for every 10,000 or for every 1000 more on the median price of an existing home, you're pricing out about 100,000 potential buyers, and they are already squeezed as it is. so i don't know that lower mortgage rates, as i said, are going to offset these higher costs. >> diana. thank you. we appreciate it today. diana olick reporting there. and, henry, just before i let you go, since you mentioned the currency risk and a lot of people are going to come back to this as they digest tariffs this week or not currency risk, but the way it's reacting, do you think the dollar continues to strengthen and therefore kind of offset the tariff impact to the ultimate buyer here or. no.

>> i think the administration in the near term actually wants a stronger dollar because it keeps inflation down as it does some of this. our estimate at kkr is that is that the tariffs will take about 40 basis points off growth and add about 60 basis points to inflation over a two year period, a two year period that can be offset through currencies. and so what i would look for is a strong dollar policy in the near term. but ultimately, over time, i think besson and president trump want a lower dollar so that they can increase the exports and make the manufacturing sector more resilient. >> exactly. because as strong as it is right now, that's not going to help us compete globally. it's just meant to kind of be a shock absorber in the near term. >> yeah, i think the big. >> step for corporate america, as we've seen from earnings season, but that's another story. >> the bigger picture is we're getting a blurring of economics and national security, and the countries that are probably going to have the ability to dictate their future are going to be the ones with the largest domestic economies the us, india, parts of japan. and we're even seeing some of this in spain. and so as i think about where we're allocating capital, those are really important countries for us.

>> point perfect place to leave it. henry, thanks so much for all your time today. henry mcvay with kkr. every sector but tech which just turned positive is in the red today. but consumer discretionary is among the worst faring. target warning of weak sales this year and a tariff hit. the shares are near a 52 week low. best buy down as much as 16% after guidance was light. and they mentioned tariff supply chain exposures. mattel also under pressure even while insisting they have diversified their supply chain. take a listen to all three ceos today. >> china and mexico. >> remain the number one and number. >> two sources for products. we sell, respectively. >> while best buy only. >> directly imports 2 to 3% of our overall assortment. >> we expect our. >> vendors across our entire. assortment will pass. >> along some level. >> of tariff costs. >> to retailers. >> making price increases for american consumers. highly likely. >> go back and understand the implication of canada and mexico. we've been looking at that. we know for certain categories, like fruits and vegetables, where during this winter season, we depend on

mexico for a significant amount of supply. now, those are categories where we'll try to protect pricing, but the consumer will likely see price increases over the next couple of days. >> and of course, we are looking at the developing scenario with tariffs. but as a company, we've done a lot of work over the last few years to position mattel with a very strong supply chain that is flexible and resilient and can respond to changing market conditions such as tariffs. >> and there you have it. my next guest covers industrials and warns, much like a retailer discussion yesterday, that some companies may not have as much pricing power as they think they do, saying, quote, the optimism makes one wonder why every country doesn't do tariffs all the time. julian mitchell is managing director of multi industry equity research at barclays. julian it's good to see you. so how are you thinking this through. >> yeah sure. >> thanks so. >> much for having me on. i mean i. think that the way we've tried to look at it is to focus on names. maybe you have consumer discretionary exposure, as you mentioned, those with, say, a lot of exposure to

markets such as automotive. i think you'd also wonder about the pricing power there vis a vis very strong customers. on the other hand, i think areas with stronger price include some of those non-discretionary categories, even into the residential world, such as hvac. i think those names have been oversold and looked very attractive. and then i would say beyond that, perhaps electrical equipment, still pretty good pricing power there, even though lead times are normalizing. so i think there's quite a broad spread of pricing power across the group on average. remember, for the typical us multi-industry company, you have about 60% of revenue in the us, but only 50% of the cost base. and a lot of that ten point spread is because of mexican manufacturing. >> and the issue of autos in particular. you know, you look at the stocks today and they're down 3 to 4%. you know, some of the industry groups are against it. the united auto workers is for it in terms of the tariffs.

so how should we expect these companies across, you know, kind of the industrial supply chain to react. >> yeah, sure. so i think in general these corporates industrials and their customers will put a pause on spending. so you'll probably see some weakness showing up in terms of shorter cycle industrial orders, probably smaller scale and large scale capex plans also put on hold for a bit. and you saw some of that weakness, i think, creeping in. we saw in the ism manufacturing new orders that you were discussing regarding yesterday's data. things like south korean exports for the month of february were also pretty soft. so i think you're starting to see some of that top line slowdown coming through. and the management teams of industrial companies and their customers, i think will be slowing down decision making and probably wait to see the next few weeks. >> julian, can you settle this kind of debate for us? the whole market is having when we talk about these tariffs, should we think about your industrial coverage universe as benefiting from potential off shoring or

suffering from the uncertainty that's causing people to delay business spending and investment? >> i think it's really a headwind. i think the uncertainty in their customers and channel partners, like distributors, will weigh on their top lines. and we did not see seven years ago when tariffs were raised, we did not see a big surge in us onshoring outside of some very specific subsectors such as semiconductors. >> all right. and i think that is the what the market's trying to digest. and again as mentioned you know they were in much worse shape this morning this afternoon. they're trying to kind of take it in stride. julian thanks. we appreciate it for now. julian mitchell with barclays. still to come china hitting back this time targeting u.s. corn and soybeans. a live report from beijing is next. and we'll ask the head of one farming co-op, where he expects to see the biggest increase to customer prices. plus, the tech sector turning positive. the mag seven still mostly lower, although nvidia is bouncing back today. morgan stanley's co-president joins us from the firm's tech, media and telecom

conference in san francisco. and as we head to break, here's a check on markets with the dow pairing at 844 point loss still down 536. and it's the worst of the major averages. down 1.25%. the s&p down 2%. the russell same. and the nasdaq only down a third of a percent. after briefly turning positive for 19 on the ten year. we're back after this. after this. >> this is the exchange on cnbc. since starting the farmer's dog, bogart has lost so much weight. and he has so much more energy. he's like a puppy again. ♪ (banjo playing) ♪ c,mon bo! this is a before picture of bogart. such a big boy. pre-portioned packs makes it really easy to keep him lean and healthy. and look at him now. he's like a show dog. [silence] bogue, can you give daddy a break here? he's having a hard enough time. at ameriprise financial we know our clients are so much more than clients.

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have announced plans to retaliate on american imports. and we have team coverage of this developing story. seema mody is here with the industrials getting hit. eunice yoon is in beijing with china's retaliatory measures, and matt carstens is president and ceo of landis, a farmers co-op in iowa with more than 1500 members. give us the granularity. welcome to all of you. seema, let's start with you. what do we know? >> well, as you know, kelly, the multinationals are really being caught in a tough situation, sort of a no win situation because these tariffs are, as we know, designed to bring manufacturing. >> back to the us. >> but they'll increase costs. and that becomes very difficult at a time. when the manufacturing backdrop is very weak. we spoke to morgan stanley's chris snyder, who says the country needs to increase the import of key capital goods to rebuild our stock. plus, companies like farm equipment makers need access to good talent, specifically people who want to work on an assembly line. on average, factory

workers in the u.s. make around $24 an hour, which is below the national average of 31. that's 2023 data pulled from the department of labor. talk of a trade war has already pressured shares of john deere, agco. as canada and china retaliate with measures of their own hands, that takes aim at us agriculture goods, industrials like general electric and cummins, worth noting, led the efforts to diversify away from china back in 2018. and according to jefferies, boeing spends about $1 billion a year on its mexico supply chain. and in canada, its winnipeg site employs about 1500 people. that really raises the question how quickly do these companies look beyond our us neighbors? barclays, adam says, given the situation is fairly unsettled, if you are a ceo, you can't be overly reactive. he doesn't expect companies to ramp up production lines that are. he does expect them to ramp up production lines in countries that are already in place. and he says that the larger cap names, kelly, are better positioned, while the mid-cap names like terex and oshkosh

that have a limited procurement network are going to be seen as more vulnerable as we see these trade headlines play out. >> where else should we be watching? you know, this is, again, a sector kind of caught in the middle. on the one hand, it should benefit ultimately from all of these measures. on the other hand, it's kind of in the near term has all this uncertainty and supply chain to deal with. >> so if we look at the playback back in 2018, what these companies did, they right away raised prices on the consumer. but at that time the manufacturing backdrop was a bit healthier than it is right now. so the question is how quickly do they pass on the impact of tariffs and increased costs on their end consumer? and do they wait it out and look at other alternative manufacturing locations to help fend off some of the fears around this trade war? >> indeed. all right. thank you. we appreciate it. seema mody. meantime, china is now targeting american agricultural exports with retaliatory tariffs, among other measures. eunice yoon is live in beijing with the latest. eunice. they're also adding companies to the restricted list. a lot of them defense firms are emphasizing their activity in taiwan. so many different things going on in response here.

>> yeah, a lot of things going on on the whole though. you know, this batch looks relatively limited given the fact that the chinese government had been threatening ahead of time that they were going to take all necessary countermeasures. so minutes after president trump's tariffs had kicked in, the chinese, as you had said, announced tariffs targeting the agricultural sector. so these are 10 to 15% tariffs on imports of u.s. soybeans, sorghum, beef, fruits, chicken, cotton, wheat. they're all going to be kicking in on march 10th. in some cases china is the biggest buyer of these products, such as soybeans as well as cotton. and of course, if you remember, during president trump's first term, the chinese had actually taken a similar tactic where they went after u.s. agricultural purchases. a lot of people at that time had seen that as a political calculation on the part of the chinese to really go after president trump's supporter base. so this time

around, the chinese have also imposed business restrictions on more than 25 companies. a lot of these firms are in the defense industry. they don't have a whole lot of business, if any at all, in china or have also been sanctioned before by beijing. alumina is the company that had been blacklisted in february, and this is after president trump's february tariffs had been kicked in. so now the company is banned from importing its gene sequencer machines. china accounts for 7% of that company's sales. but what was interesting, kelly, is that that was really the highest profile corporate that was targeted this time around. so even though we did see this host of measures, no major household names, right? >> a lot of the defense companies, to which, again, is a little bit more of a specific issue. eunice, it's also interesting to me, you know, going back to the 10% last time where we basically doubled overnight the total tariffs that were imposed on china the first time around. people said, look, there wasn't much of a market

impact. even the currency, the currency now looks like it's in exactly the same place as it was a month ago. so when i think now about 33% tariffs effectively, you know, on chinese goods coming into the u.s, it feels like that is going to have a pretty big impact. >> yeah. and you know, you're seeing i think i've mentioned this before. we've spoken to a lot of manufacturers here. and for the most part right now, they said that they're just numb. they're just going along with it and trying to push as much of the costs as they can onto us companies as well as to us consumers. but there's been a lot of questions as to why the chinese aren't reacting more strongly. and i one of the big theories is that because of the potential damaging impact it could have on the economy that the chinese are holding back. another theory, of course, is that the chinese could be angling for a negotiating tactic, that the longer game is to try to get some sort of, you know, some sort of benefit at the negotiating table. and then there's another third option, and that is that china

potentially sees that they would rather have this fight over tariffs as opposed to something much more strategic, because from the chinese perspective, they're also seeing the remaking of the international world order. that is something that the president here has been hoping to see. >> interesting point, eunice, as always, thanks so much. we appreciate it tonight, eunice yoon in beijing. let's turn now to the impact of some of these tariffs, the retaliatory ones on america's farmers. my next guest says it could lower crop prices in the short term and could hurt farmers who need open markets to offload their supplies. let's bring in matt carson, ceo of landis. they're a co-op representing 5000 midwest farmers. matt, we last spoke during the election. welcome back. >> thanks, kelly. nice to be here. >> so 15% tariffs on, i think corn 10% on soybeans. those go into effect next week. why would that dampen prices for now. >> well obviously you know. >> for our. american farmers there's. >> a big need. >> to find markets. >> and in the. >> case of corn. that's about 20%. >> on any given year.

>> that. >> we export to other. >> countries on soybeans, it can reach as high as 50%. >> of our production. >> that goes to other markets. >> so this. >> really creates an interesting. >> dynamic that that puts. >> a. >> lot. >> of pressure. >> on on what's going on right now. >> and although. >> i want to say our. farmers understand that. >> this administration. >> is, is, is playing a long game and working on something that that's. >> that's hopefully. >> really good, i'm. >> sure will be. >> for america. but in the short term, we. do have to deal with with these. changes in markets and what that really means. to the. >> opportunity for our farmers. >> to get the most for. >> their their commodities. >> that they need so much right now. >> yes. so in other words, it could benefit consumers because the stuff has to kind of it's kind of being flooded with product. in the us, if it's a little bit more expensive to export it than we get cheaper soybeans and we get cheaper corn, but the farmers potentially lose that business. is that right? >> absolutely. >> i mean, there is there is. >> a balance. >> that that comes into play there. but for us being farmer owned. >> it's about what. >> we have. >> to do for. >> these farmers. >> and, and they're dealing with

with prices that continue to escalate on what they do on the input side and what they're doing with with cost of fuels and so on. so we have to make sure that we always create the best market for them. and, and it appears we've got to really button down and. >> do the things. >> both at the farm. >> and. >> in agribusiness to weather this storm and be more lean and, and powerful to, to weather through this focused, as president trump cited yesterday, really focused on, on our market right here in the us, which still takes away a big chunk for corn, soybeans, wheat and other commodities. >> as well. >> you said a lot of your members support the president's efforts here. kind of see the long run. what is the long run like? what do you think that looks like for u.s. agricultural markets in the next, you know, two, three, four years, kind of by the end of the term he's in. >> i think. >> all of. >> us would hope in. >> agriculture. >> especially our farmers. >> kelly, is that that we open up. more opportunities for exports. and after this is done, we find a way to balance this and get a give and take that

allows more markets to open back up. even as this settles out and all the negotiations and. >> the back. >> and forth happen. so ultimately that would be the long game for agriculture. and then we're all americans and want to see what's best for america as well. and we need to help be a part of that. but but balance that with what goes on in agriculture is. agriculture is, you know, is in all of your listeners, do viewers that that this is about feeding and fueling and clothing the world. and we have to do that here as, as a mainstay for, for our farmers and agriculture. >> you know, we're reminded that during his first term, the president struck a deal with china that would require them to buy a lot more of u.s. supplies. i believe agricultural supplies were part of that, but my recollection is that they didn't really follow through on that. can you tell us what happened during the first term, and kind of how the markets overall stand now relative to then? >> well, i think there were there were negotiations. even usmca was a part of that, as you recall. so, you know, each country has to play their cards. and even though deals get negotiated, things can change,

other things become factors. and ultimately for agriculture, not just our farmers, kelly, but for agribusiness. we have to control our destiny here. and so we've got to be thinking. about what does this look like when it opens back up, what do. >> we need to do in the short term to. >> weather the storm and become lean and mean in the way that. >> we. >> manage expenses and how we serve that that agriculture base to continue to do what we can. so, you know, these, as i said, and i'm not the expert of this at all, but i can only. imagine the complexity of negotiating some of these things with countries like china, like mexico, like canada. and they are hard and we have to understand it. but we've got to also look forward here as to what does agriculture have to do short and long term to win that and watch closely to the tactics that that are being employed by this administration. and secretary rollins included in that. >> every time you say get efficient, i keep thinking of dodge. you know, we've talked about how we've got dodge in the government, we've got dodge in

the corporate workplace. with some of the changes in culling we've seen this year, maybe dodge is coming to the agricultural sector as well. >> well. >> you see it in what other businesses, landis included, has done to right the business and make sure that we can weather that storm, having the best people we can and doing the best we can for farmers to weather this and get them in the game in the short term and ahead. so you know, whatever you want to call it, i just call it efficiency. however you want to label it, we all have to do it. and it is no doubt right here in agriculture, including at the cooperative level that's owned by farmers. >> matt, thank you for joining us again today. it's good to check in. appreciate it. >> thanks. good to see you again. >> matt karstens of landis. speaking of d.c, president trump halting military aid to ukraine after friday's tense oval office meeting with president zelensky, the defense stocks are trying to avoid their worst week of the year. we have what to watch for in the president's joint address to congress tonight on that front. and the major averages remain under pressure. the dow paring at 844 point loss. the nasdaq is back in negative territory down about 55 points.

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more breaking news out of washington. megan casella has the story. megan. >> hey, kelly, this is a story from the wall street journal reporting that the commerce department is reportedly looking at making changes to its internet for all program. this rural broadband program that costs about $42.5 billion and was put in place under the infrastructure bill under president biden back in 2021. commerce secretary howard lutnick is reportedly looking at making changes to that program that would send less money to traditional broadband companies and potentially more money to starlink, something that would deeply benefit elon musk. and the journal says here that the potential new rules could actually dramatically increase the share of funding available for starlink. they say starlink was initially expected to get about $4 billion. now they could receive between 10 and $20 billion. so more to watch here. we have reached out to the commerce department ourselves and haven't quite heard back yet, but that's from the wall street journal and something to watch as we look for all of these changes that are being made to policy that could potentially benefit, i would say, elon musk and other members of this administration.

>> also comes amid the headline this morning from ontario's premier doug ford, who we've interviewed here. of course, he said they're ripping up their contract with starlink as a whether they do or not. that was the first thing that was put on the table, which was interesting as well. megan, thanks. was megan cassella. both stocks and yields are under pressure as trade tensions ramp up. tesla, meta, amazon, microsoft and intel are still the biggest drags on the nasdaq 100, but nvidia is bucking the trend after its nearly 10% sell off yesterday. broadcom, alphabet, amd are also some of the names in the green. for more, let's get out to deirdre bosa at morgan stanley's tech, media and telecom conference with a special guest. >> deirdre. hey kelly. thank you so much. that's right i'm joined by dan simchowitz. he is co-president at morgan stanley. appreciate you taking the time. >> it's great to be here. >> over the next few days, you guys really have a who's who in the tech world. you've got dario amodei of anthropic tonight, elon musk dropping in virtually tomorrow, sam altman on thursday cfos of mega-caps. what is sort of the high level takeaway so

far? >> you know. >> i think what. >> most importantly. >> the. >> power of innovation, how important it is to the markets and to the broader economy, i think that is on display. you've got tariffs dominating some discussions. but the tech sector. >> today. >> i'm not sure we can take full credit for. >> it. >> outperforming pretty significantly. so that's number one. the second is a bit of a morgan stanley element, which is this is the purest expression of our strategy. we you know, it's pretty simple and straight forward what we do. we help clients allocate capital manage their capital. and so we have 1800 investors here at the conference all time record. they're engaging with 360 companies. it's the 30th year we've been doing it. i've been coming to the conference for 25 years. and what you're just seeing is, again, the power of innovation and how that can create resiliency, for example, in the us economy, but especially growth. and i think you're hearing what we're sensing in a little survey

action, 90% of the companies are pretty upbeat in their prospects around both the technology market and the demand for their services. so it's a pretty exciting time, despite all the market. >> volatility that. >> we're we're working through. >> certainly in the backdrop, when you're here at the palace hotel surrounded by all these tech leaders, it can feel like you're in a bubble. but i noticed that some walk by there, even taking note of the sell off today, all the tariffs. how much is that factoring into some of the discussions today and yesterday? >> some i think to a degree you got. >> we're in. >> the early days and i think we still have a way to go around trade policy being implemented by the administration that's creating volatility. that volatility impacts traders. it impacts investors and it impacts companies. i think on the trading side, whether you're fx or interest rate trader. >> or now. >> an equity trader, especially globally, you got to you got to deal with that day to day. some of the people have to do that themselves here at the conference. some have trading

desks that they have to engage in. but on the investing side, i think they're. >> trying to think. >> long term, which is what is going to be the impact of tariffs to the pnl. >> and the. >> of their companies, but especially their supply chain. and then finally, for a company, you got to think about, you know, do i have to redo my income statement and my forecasting around tariffs? and then do i also have to think about. longer term supply chain? i think over time if we can hit equilibrium, you know, we may not reverse but hit equilibrium around some of the policies. then some of the bullishness that i think was out there, i think represented, for example, by stan druckenmiller in december, which is this is going to be the most pro growth. pro action directed environment that he's seen in his career that's still sitting out there. but right now i think it's on pause as we sort of adjust to a new trade regime. >> right. and i wonder sort of what is the morgan stanley view on the economy? we're less than just a few months into the new

administration. i heard jamie dimon speak at stanford last friday. he was starting to get worried about inflation. what's your view and some of the uncertainties potentially around these new economic policies? >> i think if we had a bias, our concern is more on growth than it would be on inflation. i think what you've seen, for example, in the market is, is attuned to that. you know, the ten year treasury has gone from 460 down to four one just in the last week or two. the probability of rate cuts has emerged back. and so i think what you're seeing in the marketplace today and the last few days is some concern. around 2526 growth. and so i think that is on investors minds and corporates minds. >> as well. >> and very quickly, you know we've got an ipo prospectus. morgan stanley is the lead core. we've. what do you think the markets are going to open. or what about this volatility that we're seeing. does that make some companies hesitate to go public. >> yeah i think when we think

about the ipo market we think about both supply and demand. on the demand side, it it's strengthened all the way through 2024. you cover the tech sector. we did service. titan as an ipo that performed extremely well. just in the last week or two. sailpoint went public also large ipo in the tech sector did well. so i would say right now we have strong demand across the investor base here. you know, think about 1800 investors here being actively engaged in tech. we've seen it translate into ipo demand. what we don't have is ipo supply. i think that is driven by two almost contradictory elements. one is the concern around tariffs or volatility in the market. the second is the private market is still supplying really strong capital into the market. and so i think some element of patience, whether it's ipos or m&a, i guess, which is another thing that we. >> deal activity.

>> deal activity. >> it'll be really interesting to hear from auburn and two of the big heavy hitters. dan, thank you so much for being with us today. really appreciate. >> you so much. it's really a pleasure. >> thank you. kelly i'll hand it back over to you. >> deirdre and dan simchowitz. thank you very much. stocks are moving off session lows. dom chu is here for a closer look. hi, tom. >> hey, kelly. not even just session lows. we're well off session lows. so i'm going to show you the s&p 500, which is roughly 42 points to the downside. this is right near session highs. we were down 38 points even at the best levels. that's where we open today. we were down as much as 117 points in the s&p 500. so a massive move higher off the lows. the dow industrials down 450 points 42,007 42. the s&p is at 5806. the nasdaq composite is at 18,003 46, which is, by the way, flirting with positive territory on the day so far. right now. autos a key focus given the tariff talk today. many of those stocks, by the way, are well off their session lows. ford only down 2% right now. general motors down about 3% and stellantis down 4.5% as well. so

auto stocks moving higher given the tariff news here. off the lows of the session now just about 2 to 4%. then to cap things off take a look what's happening with the global bank stocks. also again well off their session lows. many of the biggest names like jpmorgan chase, goldman sachs, morgan stanley, citi and wells fargo all taking outsized hits today on some of those concerns that a global economic slowdown and a trade war will slow down. capital flows across the world, maybe hit the banking sector a little bit. so keep an eye on those big banks. still lower today kelly but well off the lows today intraday. i'll send things back over to you. >> pretty interesting tom thank you very much. let's get our news update now at this hour from pippa stevens high pippa. >> hey kelly. the trump administration today reversed its directive to fire probationary employees. the revised guidance gives more decision making power to the agencies implementing the president's plan to cut the federal workforce. the reversal comes less than a week after a federal judge ruled that the firings were most likely illegal, and thousands were already let go.

>> elon musk. >> will meet with house republicans tomorrow night on the hill. that's according to an. email sent from house speaker mike johnson's office shared with nbc news. >> and it. >> comes as johnson said last week that he was looking to set up a meeting between musk and gop members seeking more clarity on the d.o.j. cuts, and the supreme court heard arguments this morning in mexico's lawsuit accusing american gun makers of creating an epidemic of violence. the gun companies made their case today to have the lawsuit thrown out, saying they are protected from the allegations by federal law. mexico is seeking $10 billion in damages. the exchange is back right after this. >> techcheck is sponsored by >> techcheck is sponsored by co the way i approach work post fatherhood, has really trying to understand the generation that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families like my own. in the average household, there are dozens of connected devices.

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policy at invesco. you're here with me, which is great. on a day like this, what would your message be to investors who maybe are a front runner? a little bit of what you're about to say as the market kind of comes back here? >> yeah, i think what. >> the market's. >> doing right now. >> the. >> big story. >> has been the tariffs. >> that they're actually going to be implemented with mexico. >> and canada. >> but if. >> you look. >> at. >> most of the investment community, they're. >> saying saying. >> that. >> this. >> probably is temporary. >> they're not seeing them as permanent. >> they're seeing. as president trump. >> saying, hey, last. >> time i did, i put them off. this time. >> i'm for real. >> so they. >> take me. >> seriously going forward, and then he'll find a way out at some point. the question is, what's that timeline? >> yeah. because we the other so there's sort of two tracks of this. there's the track of businesses going, we just don't want tariffs, period. and then the track of businesses going, well, we can work with anything if we just know it's basically a permanent change. so, you know, i'm sure they'd still say, look we'd still rather not have them. but if you put them in effect for a week and they're going to take them off, i mean, i don't think people are going to be thrilled with that either. >> no, i think that creates a lot of volatility. >> as you saw in the first term.

>> especially with. >> china, there was a. >> lot of. volatility in the markets. >> while they were figuring out what they were. but once they determined. >> the price. >> one time price change, the thing here. >> is that it's everywhere. everything everywhere. >> all. >> at once. yeah. >> and it's like, it's not just china, it's mexico, canada, our closest partners and europe potentially. and so. >> where do you go? >> and if you're trying to make investments, where do you make the investment. unless you're investing in the us then there's only certain place. >> but this the markets here don't look that great. the markets look better in europe. >> well at least. >> for the supply chain. >> if you're. >> doing all your manufacturing in the us, you have some certainty. if you have any kind of supply chain that's anywhere else, it's really tough to make that strategic decision. >> yeah. so you think basically this is it to some extent for show, and we're not going to actually end up in a situation where we have 25% mexico, 25%, you know, canada and 33% china. >> yeah, it's. >> partly. >> for show, but it's also to send a signal to europe and china, hey, i'm coming for you. and if i'm willing to do it with mexico and canada, i'm definitely willing to do it with you. >> so they they give more concessions. they treat it seriously. and don't just say, yeah, he's going to delay it if

we just kind of okay, fine. so then let's talk for a second about something else that might come up tonight is vis a vis ukrainian defense and all the rest of it. the us defense stocks have sold off this week, while the european ones have obviously rallied quite sharply. would you say anything to investors there? i mean, do you think that that is giving us a preview of the of the new world order, so to speak? >> i think long term, yes. we've definitely initiated a move for europe to actually finally start creating their own european industrial military complex. however, that's going to take a lot of time. and even though trump has withdrawn the current funding for ukraine, once they get back to the mineral deal table and head towards peace again, they're going to be back in the us industrial. the us defense stocks should come back, at least in the short term. long term, that's another story. >> i'm listening to you. i feel like we have no problems and everything solved and everyone's just freaking out for no reason. what about the government shutdown? you can add that to the list of concerns potentially. what is it, march 18th. something like that. >> march 14th is the deadline. the republicans are working on a deal to try to figure that out, but normally they need democratic votes. and right now democrats are not as interested

in working with them. democrats are are trying to say, hold back what some republicans think. hey, if we put a clean cr out there, there's some democrats that are going to feel emboldened or that they necessarily have to vote for that. so that remains to be seen. a lot of people are baking in some type of shutdown. and so, i mean, remember the last administration, the time trump was in, we had the longest shutdown in history of plus 30 days. i'm not sure we're going to do that, but i think there's going to be some wrangling over that. >> so we have that to look forward to. i know we got to go. anything else you'd be listening for tonight? any curve balls? >> i think to the extent that president trump can put in some certainty on his direction would be really helpful for markets and investors. >> yeah. well, that's we'll leave it there because that's exactly right. i think what everyone's listening for. andy, thanks for your time. thanks for joining us andy blocher with invesco. and that's it for us. thanks for watching the exchange. and i'll join him as he runs over to the studio. brian sullivan for power lunch brian sullivan for power lunch right i don't play for money. my ambition is to play big—to help and inspire others. that's why i joined sofi.

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