with one chef for every ten guests, indulge in gourmet dining on an ultra-premium small ship. scenic days, endless memories. call now for amazing savings. book now at oceaniacruises.com >> all right. stocks and. >> your money. >> they are down. >> again today mostly. but they're also well off their lows. the nasdaq briefly did. >> turn higher. >> the drop that. >> we had and. have on concerns about tariffs profits. >> and you the. >> american consumer. >> hi everybody. >> and. >> welcome to power lunch. stocks are down overall. but as we said well off their lows of the session. companies that rely entirely on the american economy mostly the small caps being hit the hardest. and looky there.

the nasdaq is actually now higher. >> yeah. and the small caps. the worst performer really since the election too, which is interesting. zooming out even further, that post election rally has been pretty much completely wiped out. the dow up a percent, the s&p half a percent, the nasdaq still lower. and some big moves in bond yields. we're tracking here as well. the ten year around 4.2 today. but this drop from 4.85 just a month or so ago has really been sharp and pronounced. and that's where we're going to watch again, maybe for a fed response, for we're already seeing a better impact on mortgage rates as a result. so this is an important level. >> maybe it's all. >> being done on purpose. just something we can talk about. >> in the show. >> all right. these tariffs though they lead. >> the headlines. >> and they're adding to preexisting fears about consumer and the consumer. discretionary stocks. in fact the discretionary things you don't have to buy. they're falling to the lowest level since well december. so a couple of months. >> but you got best buy. >> you've got target. you've got tesla and the s&p consumer etf. they are all lower. a lot of concerns here. we'll dig into

all of them. but right now let's talk about it. >> with our big guest. >> there's a lot going on. and we've got you covered markets money and all. but let's kick things off on the show with virginia. governor glenn youngkin. because no state may be hit. >> harder by federal government job cuts than virginia. you've also got tariff concerns, of. >> course, and concerns about military spending around ukraine. a lot of these big ships, they're made in norfolk and newport news. there is a lot going on. joining us now is the. governor of kelly and his home state. that is glenn youngkin, the old dominion. governor youngkin, thank you so much for joining us here on on power lunch. you got a couple of virginians sitting with you. but let's let's talk about, first off, tariffs and the job cuts. what is your the job cuts are separate. what is your overall macro concern about the virginia economy. and about this website you guys. are launching to try to help people find new jobs. >> well, first of all, thank you for having. >> me, brian. >> and kelly, and thank. >> you for trusting.

>> us. >> in virginia. >> and. >> also, i. >> would. >> just add to your. >> description of virginia, according. >> to cnbc, the. >> top. >> state in. >> america for business is virginia as well. i've heard of that, governor. >> i just point. >> that and that. >> is that is part of. >> that's part. >> of. >> the reality. >> of the. >> opportunity in the. >> commonwealth of. virginia today. >> and. >> let. >> me just. >> start with tariffs. >> if anybody. >> is surprised. >> that president. >> trump has. placed tariffs. >> on countries. like mexico and canada and. >> china and by the way, the reciprocal tariffs. >> that. >> he has. already pre announced. >> that. >> will be imposed in april. then they didn't listen to him during the campaign. >> and he has told. >> everybody that he is going to go to work and he is going to reestablish. fair trade. and to date so many countries around the world have been really taken advantage of the american. >> market. where they can. >> send goods into the united states, but we can't. send goods

into their countries. >> and he's. >> just taking that on straight up in a very, very direct. and powerful way. but again, i will just reiterate, anyone who missed that this was coming wasn't paying any attention during the run up to november the 5th. >> you are. >> a you are a governor. >> now, but you are a financier. i mean, that's how you. >> made your fortune and your. >> career prior to entering the governor's mansion in richmond. so kelly and i kind of alluded to it at the top of. >> the show. >> governor, is there a part of you. at all that would think, because you say what you. >> want about president trump. >> i don't want to get into a political back and forth, but i know that the majority of his cabinet, these are not dumb people. is there. >> a part. >> of you that believes that part of this is being done intentionally to maybe slow the economy, force the fed's hand and bring down interest rates? >> well. >> the short answer is this is this is being done to rebalance unfair trade practices with countries around the world. and

that has been his primary objective. but also to force many companies who otherwise might not invest in the united states to invest in the united states. and we're already seeing the benefit of that, not not withstanding the fact that there's been over $1 trillion of announcements of companies investing in america. we in virginia have substantially benefited from that. i mean, we've had $100 billion of investments announced over the last few years. but just last week, we had three announcements of companies that are expanding in virginia and 500 more jobs announced last week. so part of what is going to happen by reestablishing fair trade and reciprocal trading practices is companies are going to come to america and invest in the united states. and i would reiterate that virginia is the top state in america for business. they should come here. and those are the jobs that have enabled us to have a growing, growing job base

opportunity that has surpassed any job growth record in the history of the commonwealth, but also, as we see, of course, the efficiency efforts out of the federal government that are expected, yes, to result in job losses for some federal workers. we have a lot of them in virginia, and that's why i did launch our our big effort last week to first help those displaced workers know that there is a pathway to a great job here in virginia. our website, virginia has jobs lists 250,000 job opportunities, but also resources for those displaced workers who want to seek retraining, who need to file for unemployment, who might need to make sure that their insurance isn't interrupted, but most importantly, to get on a path to a great future in this next chapter in the commonwealth of virginia, where we have tons of jobs, tons of investment, and

tons of opportunity. >> although in governor, it's kelly, and i appreciate you joining us. just one more follow up on this. look, you know, i know tons of people who work for the defense companies in northern virginia. i mean, by the way, obviously you have all the data centers, but those are not huge engines of employment per se. so we've seen some of the mid-atlantic governors and senators and different officials kind of leading the charge here, fighting, not not fighting against dodge, but really kind of trying to protect who they view as their constituents that will be negatively affected by these cuts. so how do you balance the negative fallout for your region, which has benefited so much from all of this dc growth in the last couple of decades, against your personal view that, you know, this is something that will be beneficial in the long run. >> well. >> let's just begin with the reality that the federal government has $37 trillion of debt. and when president trump came in, was running a $2 trillion a year annual deficit. adding to that debt and

therefore the necessity to find efficiencies is critical in order for america. with that said, we recognize that this will unfortunately cause some job losses for virginians. and listen, i have a huge empathy for this. my dad lost his job twice when i was growing up, and i understand what it means when families are incredibly displaced by this. we had to move and all kinds of things. but at the end of the day, there are tremendous opportunities here in the commonwealth of virginia, and those opportunities are with great jobs that provide a great future. i do believe that that the defense industry is going to continue to be a very strong industry for virginia. it's going to continue to be one of the places where there's job opportunities. and brian, you mentioned at the onset shipbuilding, and there is a backlog of shipbuilding that lasts newport news shipyard for

longer, longer than, than i will be in the employment world. and i think my children and my grandchildren will be able to be to see those ships being built. >> absolutely. >> so this dynamic moment that is going to, yes, result in some job losses at the federal government. and i reiterate, i have huge empathy for what families are going through and the anxiety that they are feeling. but that is why the opportunity is to move into the private sector, to take, take, take advantage of, as i said, 250,000 jobs in virginia, where we are now announcing literally hundreds a week of new opportunities for folks. yeah, the $100 billion of commitments that have come to virginia from companies that are expanding here, moving here, building here, also bring another 65,000 jobs with them. and these these are great jobs with great opportunity all over. >> the state. >> and all kinds of areas. >> let me ask you on kind of a

related note, what was going through your mind on friday? i don't know at what point you saw what was happening at the oval office between the president and the vice president and president zelensky? and what was your reaction to the way that that meeting happened to the fallout since to the u.s. halting military aid to ukraine, republican senators, many of them senior senators, still support ukraine and say, you know, russia invaded them and we need to come to their support and defense. the president obviously seems to feel very differently. >> again, the president campaigned very clearly, telling everyone that he was going to bring the war in ukraine to an end. and i believe that's exactly what he aims to do. and he reiterated it again yesterday that the killing has to end. and i think that there will be an end to the war in ukraine. and that's that's exactly what president trump promised he would do. listen, he promised that he would secure the border. and now we have seen a drop of 93% of illegal crossings at the

border. he told everybody he was going to use tariffs in order to rebalance the imbalance trade around the world with our trading partners. that's exactly what he's doing. he told everyone that he would get the hostages out of israel and bring an end to that conflict. and i think as long as as long as hamas actually complies with what they promised that will happen, if they don't, then it won't. and he also promised that he would go to work to bring an end to the war in ukraine. and i think that's exactly what he's trying to do. >> you referenced. >> that virginia was number one. >> in the. >> cnbc top states for business. as we said. we've heard about that. governor, do you worry, though, that. >> with these tariffs. >> and with those that, you know. >> you. could see. >> you know. contracts to companies like. booz allen. >> hamilton. which have huge. >> numbers of employees in falls church and fairfax and lake braddock. >> and whatever. >> it might be. do you worry that that virginia won't be able to maintain its leading economic status, given all of these headwinds that it may now face? >> i think virginia will

continue to be incredibly strong. we have invested a substantial amount in infrastructure, which is the top criteria. our educational system continues to be incredibly strong. we have a fantastic workforce with some of the most educated people in the country. we are incredibly business friendly and we continue to reduce tax burdens on people and streamline regulations. and therefore, virginia will continue to be a top state, if not the top state in america for business. i do believe, again, that one of the great opportunities for growing companies is to tap into the broad workforce across the commonwealth and therefore, if there is a dislocation with some of the federal workers in virginia, they have great opportunities. i also have spoken to the senior leadership of many, many, many of some of the federal contractors, and there is a real sense of long term optimism among them. if the federal government is going to really be efficient and

effective than a company that delivers efficient and effective outcomes will thrive. and of course, those companies that don't are the ones that should be worried. and that's why i'm so proud of the industrial base and business base that we have in virginia, because i think that's exactly what they have to offer to a federal government going forward is effective and efficient outcomes that deliver results for an administration that is demanding results like no administration has in recent memory. >> governor, before we let you go and appreciate all the time you've given us today, i just want to circle back for one second. we're going to hear this joint session to congress tonight from the president. i imagine he's going to go back and like he said, say, i'm keeping the campaign promises i told you, including, i'm going to end the war in ukraine. but how do you end it in a way that doesn't appease russia, that doesn't make give them designs on europe? or maybe you'd argue that's not our problem. that doesn't put them in a position of strength or reward. those who have been, you know, combative towards other countries and

basically say, you know, if china and taiwan. well, china, if you want taiwan and we've, you know, maybe we wash our hands like that's what i can't figure out is an american. >> well, i think the first step here is to recognize that we need to bring an end to this war. second of all, that the minerals deal that was on the table was a good deal for ukraine. and it was a good deal for the united states and incentivized the united states to stay economically involved in ukraine and therefore to stay involved in ukraine. also, you've seen europe really step up here like they should, like they should. and therefore i do believe that there is a pathway and the president is a master at this at reaching the deal. and we must bring an end to the war in ukraine. i do believe also that strong america and a strong president will once again recognize that china is not just a competitor. they're an

adversary. and we have to be strong with china. and i think that's why the economic statement that the president has made, which is we're not going to let you take advantage of us anymore, is so important. and that's why i think tonight, this tonight, he will cover the, the, the last five weeks of his administration, which have which have been at a pace that no one has ever seen in an administration before. and the successes of securing the border and delivering on promises made and getting the hostages out of israel, working to bring peace to ukraine. and i think this is exactly what you'll hear from him tonight, but also a vision that, listen, the best days are ahead and we're going to have a strong economy, a vibrant america, and it's going to unleash unbridled opportunity. >> we're going to have to whack everything else in the show because we've gone so long. but i can't let you go without asking you this. >> and i might be breaking. >> some news to you, governor. or maybe not. reuters is now reporting. that that ukraine. >> mineral deal. actually is. >> back on, because the president apparently wants to announce it tonight. the deal

that was supposed to. be announced. >> the white. >> house on friday. then, of course, we had the dressing down of volodymyr zelensky and it turned into the i think they call it a some kind of show. and it's and you know where i'm going with that, governor youngkin. do you believe the mineral deal. >> is back on. >> do you have any knowledge of whether. it's back on? >> i don't have any knowledge specifically, but i do know that it's a good deal for america and it's a good deal for ukraine. otherwise, the president wouldn't do it. but on top of that, it does give america an economic interest in ukraine's future. and that's a really good thing for them. but it also allows us to recoup the billions and billions and billions that have been invested in ukraine. and i think that's a good deal for both sides. >> virginia governor glenn youngkin, wide ranging interview. governor, we do appreciate you joining us on power lunch. thank you very much. and thank you for the shout out on the top state for business. >> great. thank you. god bless you. >> all right. >> and let's check back on the markets as they digest those headlines that brian just mentioned. could the ukraine mineral deal be back on

representing the u.s, coming back in to try to come to some kind of solution there? the dow is way off the lows on that. only down three. only down about 300 points. we were down nearly 800 earlier on. as we head to break, let's check out some of the names that hit new lows, which have also made a comeback. you can see three of them are now green and phase, dow inc. and mosaic. a line is still down and mosaic. a line is still down 2%. we'll be right back. after last month's massive solar flare added a 25th hour to the day, businesses are wondering "what should we do with it?" i'm thinking company wide power nap. [ employees snoring ] anything can change the world of work. from hr to payroll, adp designs for the next anything. made with certified organic cotton, wool and latex, plus ergonomic coils to support your body's natural curves for cool

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how to keep 5g home internet from slowing down during peak hours? their customers have to share a wireless signal with everyone in their area. oooh. you know, it's kinda like when you bring a really big cake for your birthday, and then there's only a little, tiny sliver left for the birthday girl. aw. well, wish her a happy birthday. happy birthday... -it's... ...to her. -no, it's me. have your cake and eat it, too. don't settle for t-mobile or verizon 5g home internet. get super fast xfinity internet you don't have to share. forty's going to be my year. >> can sign and make official. get started at will and make it count. >> i. >> shares of nvidia. they are. >> higher right. >> now following an 8% drop yesterday. nvidia is not only massively important to the market because it's you know, nvidia, but it's in more than 500 major market etfs. and it makes up a big portion of some very widely held funds. bottom line is nvidia is really

important to the market. and kristina partsinevelos is really important to us. and so we welcome her in now. and i hope my. microphone was muted. >> i our audience is really important to me, which. >> is. >> why. >> i'm actually going to. >> start with. >> supermicro something different. >> for a change. it was the worst. >> stock. >> in the s&p 500. >> taking it right. >> from because. >> volatility is the name of the game, especially with chips. >> and hardware. >> supermicro to. >> your point. >> swung from the. >> s&p 500. >> worst performer. >> to. >> its top performer overnight. >> pushing ahead with a new silicon valley facility. >> so they mentioned this a few. >> days ago and they're going to be building. despite tariff challenges. >> lawsuit doj sec probe. >> so a lot of volatility in that name. >> time on. >> semi planning. >> a massive. >> $100 billion investment but also could face. even higher operating costs. they complain about this in the. >> past so. >> that could squeeze margins. >> yet shares. >> are up about 5% right now. nvidia to your point it's stock is. >> on a. >> wild ride trading at. a market multiple that. almost matches the s&p 500. so when. >> normally it. >> should be trading at a

premium because it's a growth company still. and that raises the question is nvidia undervalued. some are saying yes. or is the market headed for. >> a fall. >> you know for that market multiple to. be lower. there's still a lot of regulatory risk for nvidia i diffusion rules restricting chip exports to certain countries that would come into play. >> this may. >> the possibility of further china ban, specifically the a-20s. we talked about that yesterday, but just it is a big portion of their business to china. and then switching to intel, you can see shares one of the few chip names down almost 5%, 5.5% after recent chip testing buzz with ohio plant delays suggesting potential demand issues. so there was a note yesterday that nvidia and broadcom were testing intel's advanced processes. and now you're seeing that sort. but the most interesting trend on with that is investors are shifting. really. we're seeing this ai shift which we see across the market. but traditional analog names like texas instruments, analog devices, those are holding steady if you look at on a year to date basis, which is interesting for the chip sector.

>> okay. >> what do you want to. >> go to? >> okay, i want to i want to use your big knowledge brain about stock because you're also at the nasdaq all the time. correct. right. so you know, the stock market and you know nvidia and. how nice i am. >> so nice. >> so nice. >> so nice. >> let's praise you. >> and that's a song fatboy slim right. it's you. like i didn't ask for you to sing. i just want to mention the song. how important is nvidia to the to the market? we said 546. i think it was the actual number etfs in nvidia in some ways like almost is the stock. >> market because it's if it's weighted. right. so i think as of last year the s&p 500 it was over 5% or it accounted for 5.5% of s&p 500 returns. so to your point it is a big portion of the market. so when it does well it goes with it. the ai trades also move in in almost tandem with nvidia as of late. so yes, it has an outsized weight on the markets. that's it. i thought you were going to grill me with some more. >> nope. nope. we're just leave

the canada stuff for another time okay. >> good. because he always brings. >> that up. yeah christina. >> brings up what? >> oh, nothing. >> you're not from canada. you like you're from quebec. >> the rift. >> you're from quebec. >> less of a rift in the market this afternoon. dow is down nearly 800. more than 800 points, i should say, at the lows. but the nasdaq is now positive. for more on the impact of tariffs and potentially this ukraine minerals deal, let's bring in mike bailey, director of research at fbb capital partners and cnbc contributor michael farr, who is president and ceo of farm miller and washington and chief market strategist at hightower. gentlemen, welcome to you both. mike bailey, first to you on this crazy market day. what can you tell us? >> yeah, it's a wild ride here, i think, especially between the big move lower we saw yesterday, this morning opening was pretty terrible. i do think investors are starting to take a deep breath and say, okay, wait a minute. have we gone a little bit too far? is there something else that could happen? could trump, you know, realize, hey, wait a minute. you know, maybe we've pushed things a little bit too much. come back and find a way of softening the blow a bit. so i do think investors are putting those pieces together, coming back, starting to buy a little bit. your last segment

touching on nvidia. certainly that's a big driver of markets. we've seen a nice reversal. and i think you mentioned that the multiple nvidia is crossing where the broader market is in some ways. you know i think that does suggest some value. i think investors are starting to think through that, pick up the pieces. some of the things that have blown up with tariffs and start to get, get involved. and we're seeing that as a nice recovery here intraday. >> michael farr you think the same. so i think a lot of people and i get asked this now literally people are texting me and saying what's going on with the market. should i give them the mike. look i'm not going to give anyone any advice. i'll just say ask you guys. but there's the mike baillie response, which is maybe it's time to look at this as an opportunity. there's the response, though, that you hear from some of the others, including some heavy hitters in the market, who say this is not the time, the economy is slowing. there's going to be a lot more bumps in the road to come this year. you know, maybe buy bonds. >> i think you. >> always have to look. so let's. >> listen to let's. let's do both. let's listen to mike baillie and say, yes. >> there are always opportunities. >> out there. >> and maybe as as in your last. >> segment. >> we should look at the other

493 stocks and maybe not the magnificent seven, but wall street's been doing a pretty good job, kelly, of discerning the difference between the president's sort of bombastic. >> approach to. >> different topics. >> that have indeed been. >> effective and brought certain folks to the table, to the negotiating table. >> successfully. >> whether. >> it's your. >> style or not. >> it has worked some. >> but when. >> that sort. >> of bombast. >> and in this case tariffs actually becomes policy, wall street has to recalculate. they have. >> to step back and. >> say, wait a minute. >> this might be a little. >> bit too much risk. >> we've got a. >> debt ceiling. >> cap coming up in a couple of weeks here in washington. washington has gotten quieter but still doesn't appear. >> functional completely. so maybe. >> take a little off the table, maybe take some profits. and i would also agree with mike that maybe we overreacted this morning. >> maybe not. >> but wall street's trying to adjust to tariffs and perhaps a new source of inflation. >> mike bailey, how significant would it be if the president

does announce a ukraine minerals deal tonight? >> certainly anything that can help resolve some of the serious agita out there. you know, among investors that's a good thing. so again, there are a lot of plenty of conflicts out there. geopolitical also just regular economic stresses out there. you start to take away some of those risk factors one by one. i do think that cools people down. et cetera. we're seeing the vix creeping up. that's an indicator of fear. we're kind of flashing yellow right now. we're not hitting red i'd call it vix above 30 red. so anything along those lines whether it's policy if it's ukraine. et cetera. i do think that's going to help out reduce some of that. we get back to thinking about regular you know economic trends earnings growth. et cetera. it's probably a good thing especially in the short term far. >> we talked mike some of his shopping list names. mike baileys would be amazon. unh. that's one that's been coming up a lot lately mcdonald's. what's on your list? >> i came up with two for today. medtronic i. >> think, are. >> more stable names. >> medtronic and pepsi-cola,

16.5 times earnings for medtronic. about 18.5 times for pepsi-cola. medtronic has a 2.9% dividend. that medical device maker pepsi-cola, 3.4% dividend 7% earnings growth. you know, if i got a 3% dividend. and 7% earnings growth and a 10% return out of these kind of stalwart companies, i'd be okay. i'd be cautious in here still because the market's adjusting to a new president who's thrown a whole lot. at us. the fed's got to figure out what to do. ukraine's got to figure out what to do. >> so remember. >> warren buffett's looking for a buying opportunity. he's sure not going to panic and neither should you. >> all right gentlemen, thanks. the mic's mike bailey, fb michael farr farr miller and washington appreciate it. >> all right. on deck. call it shields from the sell off. some defensive ways to play this market meltdown. what's next?

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composite is up 90 points. that's about a half a percent. the s&p and the dow are down. but dom chu i know we've got market navigator. you're a money guy. nasdaq turning around s&p. it is not impossible. the s&p ends today higher. >> no it's. not because if it stays right where it is. >> it. >> would have bounced right off. it went below its 200 day moving average its longer term trend line. and then the dip buyers just came in in force by the way. so it's been a rocky couple of days for sure. brian, our next guest says that there are ways to actually play the market a little bit more defensively. rally aside here to tell us how to shield your investments when the markets do sell off the way they did earlier and may still in the coming hour and a half. joining us now is tony zeng, the chief strategist over at options play. tony, i maybe just let's get your thoughts. first of all, the cues the nasdaq etf went down to like $488 and even less by a few pennies and has rallied all the way back up to 500

bucks. it looked ominous at one point. it doesn't look so now, what does this tell you about the market? >> well, i still think that the fact that. >> we rallied back up to that $500 level. >> is still. >> concerning, because what effectively we've done is. >> we've broken. below a major support level, that $500 support level we traded all. >> the way down. >> to, as you say, to 488. >> and right now we're just. >> back up. >> to that resistance level. >> if we can't. >> get. >> back above 500, that is still concerning for. >> me going forward. >> and that's. >> why i do think it is. it makes sense. >> for investors, especially if you want to remain fully invested in your in your portfolio for dividend reasons or for tax reasons, to potentially take a look at buying some protection plays. >> at this moment, protection is. >> a little bit more expensive than it was a couple of weeks. >> ago, but i think that right now you can still structure it using. >> options to. >> buy yourself. >> some protection in a. cost effective manner to protect yourself, at least for the next roughly 10%. >> downside on the cues. >> all right. so tony, then let's talk about the structure

of that insurance. how exactly do you do it. do you just buy the put protection outright or can you cheapen it up a little bit with some maybe cost associated with that? >> yeah. >> that's. >> exactly what i want to do. because if you outright just go out and buy the puts, and. >> i was going out to looking out to the may expiration, which. >> gives you a little over. >> two months of time. if you look at buying. >> the may. >> 4th 90. >> puts, these are puts that are just slightly out. >> of the money from where we are right now. that's going to cost you a little. >> over. >> 15 bucks right now. >> that's more than 3%. of the etf's value in. >> my opinion. >> that's a lot to. >> give up in terms of. >> upside to buy. >> that 10% downside protection over the next three months or so. so i. >> think the best way to play this is to look at. >> kind of where the next. >> level of support looks like on. >> the qs, and for. >> me, that looks. >> like around. >> 450 or so. so what i'm. >> going to do is. >> i'm going to. >> sell the. >> 450 puts against. >> that in may as well. and you're going to collect a little over. six bucks on that. and that brings your total. >> cost of that. >> put vertical. >> spread to just a. >> little over $9 per share or

$900 per contract. so now you're reducing the overall. >> cost of buying this protection from a little over 3%. >> now to. >> below 2%. of the etf's value. >> and i think that's a much more. >> cost efficient way. >> a much more. >> capital efficient way to. >> buy yourself. >> downside protection. over the. >> next few months. because i don't think that if. >> we. >> do get. >> a sell. >> off here, we're going to. >> be meaningfully below 450. >> or so. and that's. >> why i. >> think this is the right. >> trade structure for. >> right now. even though. >> it is a. >> little bit more. >> expensive to buy. >> protection than it. >> was a few weeks ago. >> but i. >> think. >> now is. >> the right. >> time, because now is. >> the time where you feel you really need. >> potential protection. but before. >> when it hadn't broke below. >> 500, i didn't. >> think the need for buying protection was necessary. >> all right, so last thought here. does the price action today make you think a little bit differently about the potential for upside in the coming weeks, not just the downside protection that you're guarding against right now?

>> absolutely. especially since the spx both. spy are holding some some major support levels at. >> this moment. >> but you know, especially. even in video holding 115. >> i think is incredibly important. and i think for my perspective looking at sector. >> rotation. >> i think that. >> the chances. >> of a meaningful. >> decline here is less as of after today. >> all right tony zang options play. thank you very much. we'll see you again soon sir. >> thank you so much. if we get the us ukraine deal like reuters is reporting, if it's a done deal it shows that a lot of this is performance art and that stuff is happening. and i would buy a call option on tony zhang's hair. >> well, now now you got to think about whether or not that translates into what's happening with tariff policy, not just the. >> tariff policy. well. >> we'll. >> see what happens. but you got it, tony. i mean, you got it. the guy is. >> he's got some hair. >> he's got. it's unbelievable. exactly. kelly. >> i liked it, gentlemen. thanks. oil prices are making a comeback. well, off the lows today. it's still fractionally lower and caught in a tough spot between opec tariffs and more. we'll discuss after the break.

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>> welcome back to power lunch. i'm pippa stephens with your cnbc news update at an arab summit in cairo today, leaders adopted an egyptian led plan for reconstruction in gaza that they say would cost an estimated $53 billion and avoid resettling palestinians. that's in stark contrast to president trump's plan to take control of the enclave and remove palestinians. but it's unclear if israel or the us would accept the egyptian plan. congressional republicans are again being told to avoid in-person town halls after several such meetings went viral after attendees berated lawmakers over cuts to the federal government. house speaker mike johnson claiming today, without evidence that paid protesters are to blame for the disruptions. he's encouraging members to hold telephone, town halls and small group gatherings. and the company, famous for ketchup and mac and cheese, is getting into the booze business. kraft heinz just unveiled its first ever

alcoholic drink, crystal light vodka seltzers. the move into alcohol comes as kraft heinz is struggling with some of its core products, reporting declining sales for the last five consecutive quarters. brian, only a matter of time before a ketchup flavored vodka. >> oh, okay. okay. crystal light flavored vodka. all of us made a adoring face when? when you said that. what's your hot take on crystal light flavored vodka? yes or no? >> don't knock it till you try it. >> that's it. okay. fair enough. pink lemonade. but whatever. ketchup. vodka. pippa. thank you. all right. more good news. the price of gasoline may be coming down in your area soon. tariffs aside, oil prices, they're falling mostly on concerns about economic slowdowns and opec yesterday saying that it will go ahead with a slight production increase in april. opec and its allies, known as opec+, saying it will increase production by about 140,000 barrels per day beginning april 1st. not a lot of barrels, but it would add

barrels into a market where many say there is already enough oil. but let's be clear oil $68.30. really? back to levels of just last fall. let's talk about it all with lee croft. she was just at an opec meeting in vienna, austria, last week. had time to talk to all the heavy hitters in energy and joins us now. also rbc hosting a big conference in new york, a financial conference. thank you for making some time. >> thank you for having me. >> but i wasn't. >> at the. >> opec meeting. i know this was like a communications thing, but a lot of the ministers were there. were you surprised by the adding barrels thing yesterday? >> so certainly. >> i thought there was a case for opec to wait to the second half of the year, given the uncertainty over where we're going to land on tariffs, the impact on china, what could be coming in the form of sanctions relief or further sanctions, there was a case. but that said, what. >> i heard at. >> opec was every time we delay, we still get punished by the market because people say the market fundamentals must be so bad that you're not putting barrels on the market. so we're basically we're punished. if we put them on, we're punished if

we take them off. like maybe we should think about going ahead. and i do think if you're russia, you stand to. gain by having this incremental increase. go ahead. because now you can make the case to the white house. you're being super helpful because basically you're on side with this incremental increase. and does it take the heat off of opec. potentially. yes. >> well there's. >> there's so. >> much. >> stuff going on. i mean you almost need like cnbc two to cover all this stuff okay. >> days like today. >> you do know because you've got let's talk about venezuela okay. next week next week i'll be in houston interviewing the ceo of chevron. so today the trump administration basically said to chevron, you got 30 days to cut off your oil in venezuela. venezuela is done. for now. we don't know what's going to happen. the sanctions on iran may go back up. and we're talking tariffs on 4.5 million barrels per day of canadian. >> 60% of our imports, 10% tariff. >> so how do you. >> how do. >> you how do you.

>> manage all the math. exactly. >> so this. >> is what i think is so interesting when we do opec math. if you look at the chevron decision and you say let's pull these export permits, that's potentially 2 to 300,000 barrels that could be dislocated from the market. at the same time, you have secretary of state rubio pressuring the iraqi prime minister to reopen this northern pipeline route. so basically people are saying, are we going to get more out of iraq? so everybody's trying to figure out, then what do we think about in terms of russia? is it less russian oil, more russian oil? what's going to happen with iran? so it's hard to make all the math add up right now because there's so much policy uncertainty. >> our friend dan pickering the other day was frustrated about the opec barrels that might be coming onto the market. and he said something on x to the extent of we can't absorb any more supply. and i was wondering is sentiment in the oil space. and with the energy company, is it really that bad at this point? >> well, i think this is what is so interesting is that you have when you talk to us shale producers, i think the companies that are most concerned about

more barrels are american companies, because let's say opec decided to give in fully to president trump when president trump is like, i want more opec barrels. if opec just decided, yes, president trump, we're going to give you exactly what you want, then it will be shale companies that will have to deal with the damage of that. they would have to call president trump and say, hey, could you help us out here? so i do think there's a lot of trepidation in us companies about what is opec going to do. but again, opec had planned to increase. it's an incremental increase. no indications yet that the group is breaking up. they're kind of sticking to a plan they outlined over the summer. >> well the other. thing is so president trump has you know. >> he he. >> campaigned on lower prices. right. bringing down inflation. energy is a huge part of that. >> it's not. >> about gasoline. oil goes into about half the. thickness in her computer. it's in your iphone case in my it's in my hair i got oil everywhere. but on a serious note. so all this stuff is happening. but at the same time,

the world, if you increase oil production to bring down prices, somebody is going to lose. >> well, this. >> is the question. and i think that's the math, the balance that president trump has to. >> well. >> this is where. >> i think. >> president trump has to figure out do you want american energy dominance? do you want the explosive growth of us shale? or if you do, there is a price that's required for that. and so these companies are not going to drill themselves into unprofitability. so that is what he really i think has to balance is like what is the price that works for the consumer? what's the price that works for the producer? >> that's why sean taylor, who we had on the show, joked but was serious that the us should join opec and basically say if we want. >> he said. >> that he said the us should join opec, basically set the price, achieve. our senator. >> grassley might have an issue. >> with that. but as we're doing the opec bill, can you imagine? but because of what you just mentioned in terms. >> of well, i interviewed the secretary of energy, chris wright, a few weeks ago in washington, dc, and i kind of joked around with him about this. i mean, i don't think it'd

be the worst thing for the us to at least engage. or figure out what we're not colluding. there's nobody making deals. >> i mean, certainly we saw in march of 2020 you did have an active dialog because the shale companies called president trump and said, hey, russia-saudi price war not awesome for us. and american energy dominance is not going to thrive in this price environment. so president trump, remember, he became de facto president of opec. like he got the largest collective production cut done in april 2020. >> yeah. volatility is the real enemy of the producer because they can't plan their budgets. helima croft rbc capital. >> markets for having. >> me on. >> you're very welcome. have a great conference. we are right back. >> crypto watch is sponsored by crypto.com. crypto.com is america's premier

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>> far right is. >> compared to the left. >> now look at a ten. >> year ten year. yields are. up almost six. >> basis points. completely different. look to that chart. what's going on. you know yesterday we had a really hot prices paid. >> the long end completely. >> ignored it. today early in the. >> morning tariffs were the end of the world. the market paid attention. >> the curve steepened. but yet. >> equities have come back. >> interest rates have remained steepened. >> yield curve. >> the euro versus. >> the dollar. >> which by the. >> way. >> is. >> 57.6 of the dollar index is at a three month high. >> and i know they're. both on. >> the same chart. >> it might seem a. >> redundancy. >> but i. think it's. important to realize that. >> 12 5th. >> november. >> december 5th. >> is exactly where the dollar. >> index is committed to in. >> terms. >> of a low close. >> all of. >> that, of course, is. >> predicated on what may. >> happen in the future. >> and the uncertainty involved. but the market's movement today should teach a lot of lessons about. >> conventional wisdom. >> power lunch will return. >> after a short break.

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welcome back! as president, trump's new 25% tariffs on canada and mexico go into effect, along with the 10% additional tariff on china. retail stocks are among the worst performers today, although the declines have moderated. target, for instance, was down 6% earlier, about 2.5% today. meanwhile, dick's sporting goods that's another stock on the move. ralph lauren those are trading lower, but our next guest believes they could gain an advantage amid a higher tariff environment. joining us now is deborah weinswig, the ceo and founder of coresight research. deborah, welcome. let's just start right there. why could these two firms benefit? >> i think that. >> many of these companies. >> in the. >> you know. >> dick's and ralph lauren, right? >> they have. >> been for. >> the last few years moving production and. >> thinking about where their sales are and trying to match. >> sales to product. >> and so they're. >> tending to. >> have. >> at this point. >> more product in market. and they really also shortened their. supply chains as well. so those are. >> two great examples of. retailers who've. >> kind of gotten ahead of it. >> and will.

>> fare better than others. >> what do you think about target that was down sharply today. they said they might have to raise the prices of bananas and avocados in the next couple of days. best buy got creamed this morning. i'm not sure if that's still down double digits. they said their supply chain, not direct supply. supply chain was primarily in china and mexico. so what are investors supposed to do kind of navigating all this? >> it's a great question and incredibly timely. >> so we look. >> at the off price retailer. so the burlingtons. >> the tj's etc. ross stores. >> who source. >> over 80%. >> most of them are like. 95% domestically. >> and that. >> you know. >> so they haven't had to get ahead of it. they already were there. >> secondly, a. >> lot. >> of the. >> cpg. >> so clorox and p&g. >> we. >> spoke to. >> and they both you. >> know. >> kind of not only are they ahead of it, but once again most of their. >> production is domestic. >> you think about like the weight. >> of a lot. >> of what clorox sells. >> so that's. >> a great example. and then the industry that is a bit of a concern is the toy industry. over 80% of that is sourced from china. and what you know some

recent news is right. lego is building a new factory in virginia. so they're trying to move more of that locally. so i would say there's not a retailer out there who's not rethinking their supply chain. but, you know, having spent a lot of. >> time in the. >> supply chain industry, it's incredibly complex and difficult. and, you know, the good news is there's a lot of room for opportunity to cut costs and ultimately have, you know, more efficiencies and lower prices. >> yeah. claussen quality chocolate of wisconsin actually just bought land in virginia. i only know that because it's near my parent's all about the virginia show. so there is some growth here. deborah. listen, i, i'm not saying the tariffs aren't big. i have no idea what's going to happen. and i know everybody is already out of their minds paying enough for stuff. and that's my point. i know we're losing our collective minds about the tariffs and they may crash the economy. i have no idea. but we've dealt with inflation for four years like we haven't seen in 30 years. and prices for so many things went up 20, 30, 40 whatever percent.

why is this the camel or the tax that broke the consumer's back? because how is this different than all the higher costs that consumers are already paying everywhere for everything? >> brian, you're just too logical for me. >> i mean. >> damn it. i'll stop. i'm sorry, but. >> but but truly, i think the one thing that's gotten a lot of air time is eggs, right? inflation or whatever you want to call it. and it's wild. so we track weekly consumer sentiment across the us. and when kind of egg prices really kind of hit that high a few weeks ago, that's when we really started to see a significant decline in consumer confidence, because i think all people heard was eggs, eggs, eggs. and consumers, 2 to 3% of their food budget is eggs. so it's something that they see every week. it's like the price of gas. and so i think that that has had a contributing factor. but honestly, nothing is that much different today than it was six, 12, 18 weeks ago. supply

chains are difficult. they're tricky. there's a huge opportunity to simplify it. and i think that we've gotten that opportunity handed to us on a silver platter to do so. so i'm totally with you. >> last word here, deborah, as we go, what would you say kind of broadly about the space you think it's going to remain in the crosshairs? >> oh. >> i think it's going to be volatile. i also think there's a lot more. right. target said today 17% of their goods come out of china. i mean, there's a big focus on where goods are being sourced. and i think that what we're going to see is much more of an early delivery of holiday than we've seen in years past, because i think there are a lot of concerns. so that will be a big change. so we'll have probably additional inventory. but since this is being so well televised, i think people are going to shop early and make sure that they get what they need because they just don't know it's going to be there when they go back. >> absolutely. >> yeah. like, will they front load? >> will there be a peppa pig toy or not? i mean these are. >> will you pick a pack. >> of. >> paper towels at costco?

deborah weinswig of course i thank you, deborah. >> and we appreciate your joining us on a day like today. huge negatives earlier on. still some mild negatives, but a little bit better tone this afternoon. the nasdaq is now up three quarters of a percent. look at that. >> the s&p 500 could end the day. i bet it will. bet you coffee tomorrow. >> karen's call on half time. we'll see. >> closing bell starts. >> right now. >> all right guys thanks so much. welcome to closing bell and scott wapner live from post nine here at the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with a new trade war. what it means for this market, which is volatile this afternoon and making, as brian and kelly were just saying, some very interesting moves here as the final stretch begins. we'll show you the scorecard with 60 to go in regulation. we're weak for much of the day, but now stocks are well off their worst levels, led by a turn in tech which has seen some buying today. nvidia getting a nice bounce. some of the chip names are as well. and some of the other mega-caps are green. that's an interesting move and we'll follow it over this