given how kind of forward leaning that investor had been. it's time for like the meme stocks and other things to take a break. this is an environment for long term investors, and that's why i'm really excited about it. >> ashish, thank you very much for joining us today. i also want to thank mike santoli and robert frank for being here. it's been a pleasure gentlemen. make sure you join us right back here tomorrow. right now it's time for squawk on the street. >> good wednesday morning. >> welcome to squawk on the street i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer. david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. futures steady on guard for anything. after yesterday's roller coaster. the commerce secretary again hinting there could be some tariff relief announced this afternoon. meantime, the biggest drop in adp payrolls in two years, a road that begins with this roller coaster ride in the markets. nasdaq falling in and out of correction territory. major averages wiping out their post-election gains. >> president trump talks tough

on tariffs in his speech last night before congress, saying americans will feel a little disturbance. plus, new comments from commerce secretary howard lutnick, who is saying a decision is expected this afternoon involving those existing tariffs now on canada and mexico. we'll try and work our way through all that and we'll take a look at tesla. shares continue to come under pressure. goldman today cuts its price target on the stock. >> let's begin with the markets after that sell off and rebound and sell off yesterday jim. we got some reports today that trudeau and the president may speak today. >> yeah. >> look i. >> maybe i'm in an alice in wonderland through the looking-glass world, but i heard a president last night that i think is intransigent and is in no mood to do anything other than raise tariffs to help the american people and to pay for things. and then i hear people walk it back. i read i read commerce secretary gutnick's comments this morning on bloomberg, and i listened to the

idea there might be a deal. and i'm like. i mean, i think the guy's doubling down. i mean, did anyone listen to it? i mean, it was ferocious. the american people obviously love fruit. they vote. the american people voted for ferocity. they got ferociousness. why are we saying that lesser people who are involved in this cabinet are saying that there could be a deal? when the guy we heard last night, i think he's just saying, you know what? not only are there no deals, but everyone is going to have to take pain, especially shareholders. >> agreed. although the market is going to play off the comments from lutnick, which again 24 hours ago he was on our network. he then went on a number of others, but frankly, parsing through exactly what's going on here is somewhat difficult. i mean, i'm quoting here where he's trying to clarify his comments. in an interview, he said the president is listening to the offers from mexico and canada and thinking about trying to do something in the middle. he's thinking and talking about it. but the

companies i don't know. i don't know what that means exactly. and by the way, why would you why would you put tariffs in place if you were going to 24 hours later or 48 hours later, change them? >> yeah. and i don't think that secretary where like there's been a 50 year workaround to have the global supply chain have a lot in canada. if you do anything, what's going to happen is the portable cars from the us. no, it will be much more affordable to buy something from korea, from japan. it's going to shrink the new car volumes. customers are customers are used to affordability. i don't i guess what i'm saying is, is that it's not about mexico and about canada. it's about our car companies and whether they'll be crushed by this, that now. >> it's supposed to actually enhance their their future. >> that's laughable.

>> you don't think there'll be some reshoring of auto production or auto parts production? >> spent years trying to get it so they can compete. that was what it was. people seem to forget that there was a big reason why we did this. the republicans wanted our companies to be able to compete on an even keel. >> globally, globally. >> the republican, the old. >> republicans in other markets, both in ours but around the world. >> right. and that's over. okay. and somebody like the president keeps saying, look, there's going to be some people who suffer. well, i figured who they are. they're the ford and gm shareholders. they get to suffer. why did i mean, i always think and i talked to the guys. the guy, by the way, people who run these auto companies, they're like, great. and i always say to them, why is your p five? well holy cow, because it's not for. >> well then of course we had yesterday williams of the fed suggesting that he sees tariffs with a high pass through

function to the consumer. right. we had buffett over the weekend saying the toothpaste tooth fairy doesn't pay him. well. >> we. >> don't have to have a high pass through because we can just go buy toyota. they got the de minimis tax. we'll go buy vw, the kia. i mean i got to go kick the tires. >> for now jim. i mean, what happens on april 2nd exactly. >> the question is what kind of tariffs will be placed reciprocally on. well. >> it doesn't matter. whatever they are, they're going to raise the price of ford and gm versus toyota. >> well, i guess eventually ford gm, they'll only be able to sell domestically, but we'll only be able to buy us u.s. manufacturers to build factories. so we'll have a purely domestic economy. is that. >> like take a look at the factories that are being built by by the chips act. the chips act that came. whoa. mr. chips. chocolate chips. no chips. >> you're talking about the president discussing that last night? no, i'm talking about. >> what i had before your unbelievable presentation last night. well, no, i am referring to the president. >> yes, he. well, he did not seem. he's not a fan of the chips act. no, but it was passed

in a bipartisan fashion, as i recall. >> david. what era was that? this is the new era. and i can just say we are really being cavalier. if you think that these companies can radically switch anything within a five year period in the same way the taiwan semi, maybe the greatest manufacturer on earth, can't seem to get those big foundries going in our country. so i just think there's an i don't want to be unreal to our viewers who might actually be buying gm up a couple this morning. people are buying gm up two bucks. of course they were buying nvidia up about $1.80. >> nick suggested that autos might be compliant under the usmca. >> no, but lutnick is the he's a private and the president is a five star general. i look, i like i did a lot of charity work. he's terrific. he's trying to be constructive. but the president is not about being constructive right now. he's about making a point. and hate him or like him. he's making that point. he's. this is not

david. and everybody wins. >> scenario. no. okay, so your view is the. tariffs will remain in place. if i could. yes. and therefore what does that mean overall for folks who want to buy and sell stocks and or do anything else for that matter. >> somebody has to be sacrificed. >> sacrificed. sacrificed. was this biblical? now, what are we talking about here? yes. is this. bring isaac. bring isaac to you? no, >> no, because. >> that was abraham. >> in there. there's no david. there's no ram. >> no, there's no ram. >> there's. there's no burning bush either. if you really want to go there. >> i just pentagram on the floor with candles. >> yes. and i just think that we have to recognize you can't own ford and gm in this environment because they have to lose. it's okay. so they have to either cut their margins, cut their price and get hammered. and that's why their stocks are near four times or five times earnings. or they

lose shares to kia and to toyota because your view. >> is completely opposed to that of the administration, which believes obviously everything they're doing is designed to actually enhance u.s. manufacturing and help these companies. >> they've got a longer term view. but no, i mean, the reason why we went to canada is because we can't make it cheap. it's cheap here. that's why we went to make these companies competitive against vw and toyota and kia. that's why we did it. we seem to forget why we did it. it was because our companies were being crushed by foreign companies, by toyota, by nissan. so we came up with this great plan to make it so we were competitive. and that was that was then and this is now. look, the president is very abject about saying there's going to be pain. so i think that we as people who are trying to figure out things should really get in the pain business. >> but you don't sound like you're talking about a, an inverted function where it's a

price shock and then we revert. you're talking about things that are made here, cost more to make and will cost more to buy. >> right. well, now i know why. ford why gm sells it. i've been trying to figure out why does gm sell at five times earnings despite that big buyback and all the great things? why is ford, which has really done a lot of things under farley, selling at five times earnings. and the answer is and it's what finally told us is that because they're screwed. but someone has to be sacrificed. it's okay. >> i mean, listen, gm, by the way, is still buying back an awful lot of stock. in fact, they had. dividend and share repurchase the other day. >> think that maybe that is not right. >> well, i don't know. they're buying their stock back at a multiple that they obviously think is mispriced. >> is wrong because of what's happened. look, i don't want to devote any nine minutes into this, but i spent a lot of time talking. we have phil lebeau talking. i don't think he's that opposed to what my view is, but i can tell you that someone has to be sacrificed. and it's the margins of ford and gm and the shareholders until pangloss

breaks out and we realize that canada wasn't cheap and we're cheaper, but it was also a way to get away from the unions. i mean, i think we look what i worked, i was a shop steward. i worked and led a wildcat strike fired immediately. not so great. >> uaw did not criticize tariffs yesterday. well, they they they they don't mind this at all. >> no, they're a winner. >> yeah. by the way jim. >> they're big winners. >> the broader the broader scope. is this piece in the journal today. stagflation has entered the chat. adp today our data suggests a hiring hesitancy among employers. right. that's the that's the bigger picture. >> well look the president did say listen the tax cuts are coming. and don't worry about it. i don't think this is permanent, but i, i look when i hear the bullishness, i just say those people went to bed early and i appreciate that. they may have had to get an early start in the day. but the president that i heard last night is that he's sherman's march to the sea.

this guy, i mean, he's just going to get it done. and anyone in his way is going to lose. and right now, it's about bringing jobs back. and the pain that gm and ford are going to suffer. >> we haven't even seen we should point out april 2nd really could be a very consequential day, because that's when you really see the reciprocal tariffs. now again, lutnick in various interviews has said they've got a lot of work to do between now and then. right. but again, to just reiterate, the tariffs put into place yesterday were about fentanyl. at least that's what they've said. and reducing the, the or increasing the interdiction of the drug on the southern border and the northern border, although frankly so little comes across canada. it's kind of hard to imagine. >> i don't trade fentanyl. i don't know where it's trading at. maybe it's trading over in germany, i don't know. i trade ford and gm and what i'm telling you right now is that these stocks are even down here, dangerous. if you believe what the president said. dangerous? that doesn't mean you can't go by alphabet. there's plenty of other stocks you may even want

to buy. can you? >> talk about ken view a little later? >> because this is a this is a green light to buy listerine and aveeno band-aids. band-aids. what is the other side? i take zyrtec every morning because my contacts in. >> my eyes portfolio. we're going to talk a bit about that later. what about this name, tesla. would you buy that as a as another us based to an auto maker with plants obviously in germany and shanghai. >> the guy. >> came along with texas and california. >> to the congress in a suit. >> yeah. and in a 99 minute speech got 40s. >> yeah. of clap. but the. >> two minutes on doge and 40s. >> he had like 90s on clapping. i mean, we can do a lot of different games. he looked great. he came. it wasn't in some sort of like tracksuit or anything or a shirt that says, what a tax collector. i mean, what was amazing was that people seemed to just go, republicans go crazy for him. they love him. >> which is which makes this goldman chart this morning all the more interesting. goldman

looks at consumer perception of the tesla brand and consumer intent to buy versus other automakers. i think we have it built it's way off. and then david mentions the german sales in february down 76%, jim, whereas overall ev registrations were up 31. >> i know. plus germany is going into this absolute whatever it takes scenario, whether it's spewing money, they're finally using the bazooka and it's not seem to be headed tesla's way. >> no, no. and we should point out that goldman this morning they they lowered their below consensus delivery estimates for tesla again. so they're already below consensus quarter to date china europe us obviously given the data points we're getting broader demand trends as well. they believe are are not pointing are pointing to i mean they have some numbers in here actually. yeah i can find them here. 225 2025 deliveries estimates to 1.19 million. that would be up 7% year over year. so they're down from what had been 1.96 million. and they're

2627 estimates now for deliveries 2.25 million. again lower assumptions across the board. >> they're going into the last quarter. buyside estimates were up 20%. >> yeah, yeah. >> did you see that how many cars they sold in germany last month? >> very few, 1429. >> that's not a lot. >> of lamborghini may have sold more. >> yeah. >> and those are handmade leather stitched by by by six ladies in their 60s. >> now, that said, to your point, the german economy is having a rough go of things in general, i'd say so. there's not that, you know, it is. it's not a particularly good time. >> if they if merz gets this debt break released and launches this ■k7500 billion defense fun, i mean, jim, german defense, defense baskets are up. >> 50% now, but they better give some to aerovironment. holy cow. >> nothing like germany rearming stuff to get things going. stop that. >> that was a long time ago. >> it was. >> this is the good germany.

>> understood. and deutsche today with the nice chart looking at their debt to gdp they could spend $8 trillion and then match japan's debt to gdp. >> and how about the fact. and they might get up to 3% for defense. but how about the fact that deutsche bank stock was up hugely last night, even as jp morgan was down. now what does that say. >> that says that yeah, things may be here or not as good as we thought. >> germany. >> i don't know about that. i mean, germany has some intractable problems, including the power, you know, obviously the cost of electricity there, which has gone up dramatically. oh my god. you see the bill. >> up 60%, 60% year over year. electric bill. >> and not a great deal of innovation to a certain extent. you know, that said enormous spending can help. >> tax is at all time highs. >> and they have and they have a and they have an ability to do that. dax is at all time highs and the multiples still are i got one. >> word for you partner. >> but they have been trading i

mean they've always. >> got one. >> more for you. give it to me. santander always. santander. do you see this? because you love that. you love that. >> well no, i like money, okay? i like money. and the money being made in santander is incredible. look at that stock. it's parabolic. >> you know what? >> that's a mag seven, isn't it? >> mag eight. jim, i got to give you that one. you've been on it for a long time, see? >> did you hear that? >> did my mom. >> did his mother hear that? >> she's always listening. >> she never misses the show. >> always listening. >> god, she's the greatest. >> well. >> that's nice. >> she looks. >> yes. thank you. now i gotta hear from her. >> yeah. i mean, i heard some things, like, how about when we gave. we were giving some money to some country that no one had ever heard. i mean, that was like, historical, like maybe. true. >> you're talking about that speech last night. yeah. >> was like. and then we gave money to this country. i don't even know if it exists. i mean, at one point we would have said, okay, fredonia, but no. >> don't you cry. >> he is president. this is fredonia. >> it's us. >> we're going. to we're going to show you this, this award

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opportunity. and that is how you win your market with similarweb. >> we pull the curtain behind the money managers to show you how you can be a better investor yourself. >> it's like he's drawn. >> open the curtain on. the secrets. >> of. >> wall street. it's just a great guide to have. >> go to cnbc.com. join jim. >> all right. welcome back to squawk on the street. let's get to a mad dash this morning. we still are getting some earnings including from campbell. not particularly good. the guidance jim seems to have the stock down as much as 6%. >> i'm sorry i was looking at the new goldfish. i just got the harry potter butter beer goldfish. okay, now they've been trying to extend the line of goldfish. there's all sorts of different kinds of goldfish. you know, it's almost like i'm waiting for the one that. that we had that died and floated to the top. now, here's the problem. david and i. >> will eat those. >> so the problem is goldfish. >> goldfish. >> the problem is snacks. snacks

are doing quite badly. okay. much worse than people thought. the conference call is a little grim. yeah, i have david. there's something. >> what's the reason? what's going on here? >> no one's willing to say it, okay? it's just like, well, right now, it's just. they're kind of like, not buying as much. david. it's okay. it's the. this is what they. >> that's the shot. >> this is what they won't talk about. why won't they talk about it. because that's existential. that's not like wait a second. we got harry potter and next we're going to have superman. and after that we're going to have, i don't know, ryan reynolds, just ryan reynolds, whatever. women love him. okay. so there you go. >> so cookie. >> like or are they. i gotta open these, i. don't know, i gotta find out what these are. >> if they don't, maybe they should have one in the food. that would be. >> glp ones are, as you say, potential existential threat. >> and you see, today, novo nordisk has a new policy on it. >> i know plenty of people who are using them. you go to dinner with them, they eat half their portion, they don't drink as.

much fun. and apparently maybe they're not snacking as much, right? >> they're like, they they may be smacking. my wife hates it when i'm smacking when i'm snacking. but i will tell you, david, that this is a shock because snacks have been pretty good and goldfish has been one of the greatest players of all time. >> the key here is they lower their organic sales guidance. >> really bad. the organic sales. >> are now looking for down. 2% to maybe zero. down to the volume decline. >> as much as 2%. organic sales growth. >> or net price. pretzels aren't selling well. hanover pretzels. david. one thing is really good about it. this stuff is not made in mexico. >> no. >> okay. >> i think. it's really good. >> it is good. that has nothing to do with it. >> it only has like 7000 different ingredients. >> if david ricks were to go on the board, there would figure it out. david ricks being the ceo of look. >> all right, well. >> oh, now we have to go. this was like, great shtick. we got to go. i found there's some shtick. anyway. there you go. >> all right. you can catch us anytime, anywhere.

>> yeah. >> listen to, you know, whatever. >> stay in your mouth. you're going to be bumbling. you mumble the whole time. >> these are delicious popcorn. >> february jobs report. the first full report under the new administration. will employment remain resilient? what the data could signal for the fed. could signal for the fed. employment numbers and analysis.

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income alternatives and responsible investing. the next. >> phase of our plan to deliver the greatest economy in history is for this congress to pass tax cuts for everybody. they're in there. they're waiting for you to vote. and i'm sure that. >> the people. >> on my right i don't mean the republican. >> right. >> but my right. >> right here. >> i'm sure you're going to vote for those tax cuts. >> because otherwise i don't. >> believe the people will ever vote you into office. >> that's the president last night urging congress to pass tax cuts. jim, that's going to be a more tortured conversation as we get through the year. >> but i mean, that's look, we have to go through this gantlet and then that's on the other side. i think the president's been very clear of the order of things. i think people hoped it was going to be the other kind of order where we get tax cuts in. this stuff will be done. once this is. >> through. >> we'll have a good reason to buy. stocks that can anticipate

it. the president doesn't want to wreck the. >> stock market. >> that is simplistic. the president wants to get this done. and once he gets it done, then we'll be fine. you have to stay the course, david. there isn't anything he's saying that he didn't tell you he's going to do. >> let's get. >> the opening. bell here in the realtime. >> exchange at the big board, with women and leadership and organization encouraging women in financial services at the nasdaq and cirque du soleil entertainment, celebrating its return to new york city with its production lutetia. so, jim, that timeline of once he gets it done, what how long does that take? >> it's a great question, because it just seems like the approach that the president is doing is so rapid that i don't think it'd be going to be april 2nd. i love that, he said. it's going to be april 1st. but i do think i do think that it's going to be done this year. i mean, look, we're not we're seeing so many companies, every company that you mentioned that we're going to talk about, whether it be thor, whether it be dyne,

whether whether it be any of these companies that we're. >> seeing cfpb. >> ross stores. >> ross i mean, i thought abercrombie had some good things to say, but overall they didn't. i mean, anything in the mall. we're seeing a lot of negatives, but that's not going to last if the president finishes. >> so you think he's trying to get the weakness out of the way? yes. and if we get into a recession, do it soon enough. where it doesn't affect the midterms. is that. >> the thing? i don't, because i think we'll see employment. and it does seem like employment. the adp numbers were very weak. but david, i tend to believe that he wants that the president is in a hurry because he wants to give us something good this year. >> well, he you know, he get lower rates at least if you get a recession. i mean, listen, the way the banks traded yesterday, now they did again, you know, they came back a bit, but they were down disney see how disney traded. well if you want to talk about a reflection or concern about the consumer. >> disney did make some more

layoffs today in the news. >> layoffs. >> yeah abc yesterday. >> i just thought. >> of the travel related names. >> marshall's having a great quarter though, and i really think that they're doing terrifically. i would buy that stock perhaps even aggressively. we saw a big turn yesterday. we had the colgate's and the proctor's just frantically running. and then they did a midday pirouette. that's always a bad sign. and i do think that we are going to get this done and then we're going to be in a halcyon moment, but we are not there yet. and you have to expect, you know, look, the stuff that nick's saying, the rates will be 25%, some categories left out if we get some exemptions, that's going to. >> make people feel better. but again, back to the overall level of uncertainty, which is extremely high because you have no idea how to position your business until you have some certainty in terms of, okay, what's it going to be? what's it going to apply to, what is the roadmap? what is the road ahead look like so that i can at least start to plan? it can't be back and forth and back and forth

either. >> no it. >> can't. >> it can't. but at the same time, that doesn't mean there aren't a ton of stocks that are not affected. can i do the faber report? no, because sure, sure. >> i love having a guest. >> report that i am more in favor of kennedy than i was yesterday. david, appreciate you coming in early to do that one. but no, this is a good example. you know i'm not. >> let's talk about kennedy. no, let's talk about it. i'm happy to. the stock, by the way, has moved up of late, in part because it's a defensive name with an incredible portfolio of products. what many investors or shareholders believe is that those products have not been performing as well as they should. and as we all know, since it got spun off from j&j, remember, it sort of went straight down for quite some time. it has, you know, it's been it'll be two years come may that it's been a public company. kennedy. you know we're talking tylenol neutrogena band-aids. you know many of the you know almost all the products frankly.

and this morning it's in the news in part because newsweek first brought you on cnbc.com that there is a settlement with starboard and jeff smith. they've been seeking for directors on the board. this is an idea that was first introduced by starboard last fall in a presentation they went on to nominate for. but now they've settled and he's stepping on. and two independent directors not any of his nominees. two independent directors are also added to the board. and then the question becomes, what does that mean for the future of the ceo? because i think there has been some focus on whether, in fact, that is something that perhaps needs to change. i don't think anybody has made any conclusions in that regard, but certainly that will be a piece of business this board is going to be focused on in general as it focuses on, you know, reinvesting in the brands, getting these assets to perform at the level that's expected given their prominence in the market. they have not been getting pricing of late. and i

think there's a sense that, to your point, the stock has been cheap based on at least the where it could perform and can excuse me, you can take a look at ken view's performance versus some of its peers, and you can look at the starboard presentation from last fall as well. right. in terms of what they think is the possibility in terms of getting, you know, organic growth rate up from where it is right now. don't you think that. >> there's a belief with adjustment, that there's not a lot of urgency here, that they've kind of been taking their time? at the same time, this could be a tremendous consolidator of all these little companies that have been spun off that really all have their own words, they all administrative stuff. and you really don't want that when you're selling into amazon and direct to consumer, you're selling into clubs. that's where you sell this stuff. now larry merlot is chairman of the board. he comes from cbs. but he's got he has the urgency. i thought both hofstetter and mann sounded like total hitters here. sarah hofstetter and erika mann. >> obviously the new independent. directors are more. >> respect for jeff smith. and i mean, jeff smith will come on

the board. but the real plan and i think if they don't go with the plan, i think there could be a change. >> and when you go on the board, you get locked up too, by the way. so you've got to be in there for some period of time. i think, again, the first order of business is going to be, as i said, sort of focusing on and discussing, you know, if there's change necessary in terms of the senior executive ranks in some way. and then, listen, there's going to be i can guarantee you there'll still be some takeover chatter around this name. you know, you've got unilever. ever consider doing something with p&g? ever consider how haleon. but haleon would have to use all stock? no. >> they'd have to do all stock. stock has been up. i mean procter isn't natural. i don't know where procter feels in terms of being. >> that is going to most likely come around in my reporting on sort of around this theme. so far there's nothing that's been going on that i'm aware of, no real conversations of any kind, and i don't think the board is being advised at all to consider a sale. that's not what's being considered. it doesn't mean that

it's rare, but that somebody might not make an approach. but i'm not hearing that at all at this point. but we'll have to watch. >> but apropos the things that david received that are really an amazing board last night, i think. >> we're talking about thank you. >> yes. but i was proud to be your partner and to be able to say, listen, you break that news. my analysis is, wait a second. we can sit here and bemoan what to do with tariffs, or we can take a hard look at a company like candy with just a brand new board. and it's got tremendous assets and others and wondering, geez, maybe this is a place to go, right? i mean, especially after the pirouette yesterday where some of these stocks just got crushed. maybe. interesting. >> yeah. >> now that's jonathan wald, nick dugan right. and dan colarusso the currently our cnbc. >> yes. these are all the leaders of cnbc business news. i brought them together for a panel discussion as i received this lifetime achievement award from the new york financial writers. my two colleagues, of course, were in attendance, which i greatly appreciate. so many of my amazing colleagues were there as well. it was a great a great evening, and

obviously it's a great honor as well. nice list of former recipients and proud to be amongst them guys. can't thank you enough. >> congratulations, david. not many broadcast journalists get this award. no. mike kandel, ray brady. who are the others? >> louis rukeyser, gharib. >> rukeyser. >> of course. that was it. yeah. >> well. >> business report. yeah. no, it wasn't louis rukeyser. and i forget who the fourth was. yeah. >> a brief bit of sound from david's remarks last night. take a listen. >> january of 1987. living at home in the room that i grew up in in queens, i answer an ad in the new york times for a job at the newsletter division of institutional investor. i was an english major in college. i had never taken so much as a semester of economics. i get the job lucky in timing because they would have hired anyone. i joined cnbc september of 1993. lucky in timing again as i

joined a still fledgling cable network about to feast at the combination buffet of a booming stock market and this amazing business model of charging all these people a monthly fee to watch your network, even when 98% of them have no interest in it. it's very hard to say goodbye to that business model. and it is. and it is. yes. and again, i i'm extremely lucky to have all the amazing colleagues that i have, obviously, these two gentlemen being a key part of that for so many years now, but so many more. and i was obviously honored and very happy to be able to also call at any number of people as well, that we've all worked with for so many years who do so much to make things and to make my career what it's been. so thank you to the financial writers again, great honor. >> just fabulous. so proud. >> of you. proud to. >> work with you. as for that business model, guys, we'll see. >> no, we don't talk about that. >> we'll see. well, i mean, we. >> have to rain on our own

parade. >> at some point. we're going to be a spun off company. it's going to be interesting to watch and to see how we perform as a public company. it's probably by the end of the year we're going to be talking about the company with a name and a ticker symbol, neither of which we have right now. it's early. early. >> speaking of ticker symbols, the worst performing one on the s&p right now, jim, is crowdstrike. you've been a staunch defender of this. >> space in general. >> this morning. >> when we saw we saw a lot between 400 and 450. george kersh did a magnificent job. and i think there's a lot of people being very shortsighted. i think that the cash. >> flow. >> is much better than people realize. i think that the order is much better than we realize. i think that this is a momentum stock that's pausing, and you have to buy momentum stocks when they pause. >> and the. >> people who are selling it right now will certainly regret what they're doing. >> right. palantir getting some love out of william blair as they go. long time bear. >> yeah. >> they know what's happening. there were there were three really big sell sell. i'd say

horrendous antipathy by three analysts and two folded. now the third folds. alex clark is able to sell more than $2 billion worth of stock. that's got a lot of stock. but i do think that this is once again, people saying, wait a second, they weren't hurt by government cutbacks. they could be enhanced. my belief has always been that when they get to the defense department, musk will say to alex karp, fix it, make it more effective, make it more lethal. and that's what's going to happen. >> so they're a beneficiary of doge? >> yes. they are the beneficiary of doge. people thought they were going to be someone hurt by doge. >> well, yeah, that stock did get hit on the day when. >> it was announced selling. there's a lot of people doing a lot of things off of like, by the way, i think that the algorithms drove a lot of crowdstrike last night. they didn't understand you had to add back $0.90. i mean, they just they don't do it. you have to like look at i mean, look at the income statement. and i'm spending like waiting for the president to talk, which was about 40 minutes. and i finally got through the income statement

because there's just a lot of different adjustments and the machines can't adjust. but palantir was hated. no they can't. machines can't adjust. they can't adjust. these are. >> sophisticated algorithms created by literal rocket scientists. >> i never fares well when you get journalists together. >> no, we hope we're right, guys. one name that that i've been keeping an eye on. you know, it's funny, yesterday i watched at&t shares, which have been a very strong performer, benefiting from this market environment, as you might imagine. and it hit right around $200 billion in market cap. first time i've seen that in quite some time. and then john stankey takes the stage at a morgan stanley i think it was stankey. yeah. at a morgan stanley conference and talks about churn sort of showing up a bit more in january than they thought, frankly, overperformed in the fourth quarter. we thought that trend was going to start to result in some higher churn. well, it showed up in january a bit. so january is a little bit rocky. typically it is a lower net add month in the year. anyway, february said was right back where we were march.

we feel really good. but that hit the stock about three plus percent. immediate retreat for shares of at&t. worth noting though still up 15% this year as the strategy they're pursuing is one that investors are rewarding at this point and have been now for certainly last year as well. well, look, we do have and by the way, the dividend yield, sorry to cut you off for the first time in a long time was below that of the ten year or even the two year. yeah. >> well i mean look, again it fits what you want. so does t-mobile for that matter. you want a domestic company. it's not going to get hurt by tariffs. that's got a good dividend. and there you go. and my hat's off to them. they had a lot of cleaning to do. and by the way david has been not talking about the resurrection of warner brothers wb. >> yeah down today up 6%. it moved up to the after the after the earnings last week. it did move. and also. >> tech pay down. >> they like the debt pay down. they liked direct to consumer.

and you know we talked about this at the time this internal restructuring at warner brothers discovery. it is absolutely set them up to split this company up. there's no doubt about that. i think the only question is when i say split, split the cable networks and the studio and max. so that is in place or will be and i think investors looking at that are sort of trying to assess what a split will look like, how much debt, of course, will go back to linear cable networks, how much debt will go with all of the with the cable networks. >> potential consolidator? david. >> yeah, i mean, eventually everything you may see a lot of these together or certain combinations of these cable networks together, not as a growth strategy, more as a way to. >> survival strategy. >> yes. save a lot of money to enable you maybe to invest for growth. >> it's still a double since august. >> yeah. >> and you know, look it's stay the course. and i think that david zaslav would tell you that buried within that company is

the number one studio in the world. >> yeah. it's funny i thought you were going to talk because we put it up about t-mobile because, you know, again, that the dominant provider in many ways, $300 billion. i always worth pointing out the germans, the germans control t-mobile. >> yes they do. >> deutsche telekom still owns more than 50%. and it's been very. >> smart for them to do it. smartest thing they ever did. >> there's been a lot around lately about well you know more consolidation coming. would you ever see t-mobile try and get together with a cable company, for example? but i mean, if you were to put them together with charter and the debt load alone, when you add in leases, you're getting you're getting numbers that are enormous and not clear to me. the germans would want to be issuing a lot of shares and diluting themselves. it's by far their best asset, but. >> they may be feeling great now that the debt break is over. and that's break, right? >> if they can if they can get that through. >> yeah. i mean the greens aren't for the greens but i've got to tell you germany they could be an engine. remember

germany was a great engine. the europe's a great engine. when they, when they the, the wall went down. >> well not even that long ago we were talking about germany and their apprenticeships and the way that you know and just the way they develop people in terms of manufacturing, in terms of different, you know, i'm just saying it wasn't that long ago that their economy was incredibly was very strong. >> we'll go we'll go to we'll go to what was chronic. okay. never mind. >> well, you're having to. >> unwrap growth. >> is you're having to unravel merkel's legacy and years of caution when it comes to debt. we all know the story, right? >> yeah. >> but this would be the biggest ramp up in defense spending for them since the war. >> oh, it's huge. and that's one of the reasons i mean, look, everyone's got to go to 3% because they're all feel that president trump backs away. then the russians are going to move on nato. i mean see, they don't have that same surety about russia, but that david, no tariffs russia. >> no they can they can.

>> taking sanctions off. >> exactly. yeah. no, no they're exemptions. they're clear. >> they're clear. totally clear. >> yeah april the mid day thing. it will not contain sanctions. may sanctions lifted. no tariffs. >> right. >> that's what you're talking. >> got it. >> well while pausing the ukrainian aid. >> that's got it. >> hey what are. >> you getting out of rest for. what is the what is the what is there to do there business wise? it's just it's just a gas station, right? >> that's mccain's old line gas station with nukes. >> well, there you go. gas station with nukes. >> dow's up 165. we do have some services pmi numbers coming out. let's get to rick santelli. hey rick. >> hi carl. indeed this. >> is the. >> first batch. >> of services number. >> this happens to be from s&p global. these are february. final reads. >> which means. we replace. >> the mid-month read 49.7 was mid-month. read on services. it jumps. >> in. >> the expansion. >> territory at 51.0. >> now it's. >> only the best since. >> january when 52.9. >> but what's notable.

>> here is, is. that you turn that we. >> had a 49.7 for two weeks. >> well, that would. >> have been the. >> first sub 50 number. >> going. >> back to janet 23. so a very friendly number there sequentially. obviously a. >> good number. and if we look at the. composite from 50.4 mid-month to. >> 51.6, also the. >> best since. >> january when. >> it was at. >> 52.7. haven't had a. sub 50 number there also since january when it was under 50 at 46 and change, we. >> see that the. >> yield curve is. >> steepened because. >> of this. >> notion of uncertainty. has prompted more rate cuts. >> so short. >> maturity treasury yields have dropped more substantially than long dated. and the motivation, at least for today, was 77,080. >> jobs. >> about half of what we're looking. >> for and the smallest number going. >> back to. july of last. >> year. >> squawk on the street will. >> return after. >> a short break.

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(vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts. what just happened. in the markets. >> that day and. preparing for tomorrow. >> i'm looking to talk to all investors. >> sophisticated investors, beginning investors. i'm yeah, it is weird that we still call these things phones. well, yeah. they're more like mini computers. precisely, next slide. xfinity mobile customers are connected to wifi 90% of the time.

that's why our network has powerboost with wifi speeds up to a gig where you need it most. so, this whole meeting could have been remote? oh, that is my ex-husband who i don't speak to. hey! no, i'm good to talk! xfinity internet customers, cut your mobile bill in half for your first year with xfinity mobile. plus, ask how to get the new samsung galaxy s25+ on us. three vetted fiduciary financial advisors at smart sitcom. >> let's get to jim and stop trading. >> yeah we are. carl, without a doubt, getting into this moment where you have for retail. i don't wanna call it existential, but you do have a situation where they had a good quarter, but they can't assess the tariffs. they can't assess the weakness. they're all worried about about jobs and abercrombie fitch, which, by the way is a very, very good company. very good company. reports a quarter that looks okay. if you read everything you'd say. okay. well, they're a little worried about about what's going to happen with tariffs. and people

just take it out and they shoot it. now one of these like you know best buy yesterday got they have a 60% china and 20% mexico. so i totally get that. but this is a good company that's been that was on a huge winning streak and now is just so despised. when you mentioned to me what could happen down the road after the president's done with this part of the agenda. you know, you look at this and you say, how did that get there? but right now you just can't look at it. you just say, i can't buy abercrombie. and it's rather amazing because, boy, they were on a hot streak to beat the band. >> they had some stellar earnings reactions these. >> last. few quarters. >> and a lot of people felt that last dip was was buyable, and that was really not the case. >> how about tonight then? >> okay, i've got hasbro, which has been on a winning streak. i've got crowdstrike, which is obviously not in favor today, but i think the seller is going to be wrong. then david gitlin, a carrier that hvac, they moved very aggressively into the data center. and ever since they moved into data center, every one of those stocks has been crushed. but they may be may be coincidental, maybe not. so

yeah. look, i'm always i'm trying to find good things. that's why i brought did my own favorite report, because i felt that. can you listerine. it will be sold. there'll be sold. band-aids will sell. >> they will sell. >> will not be. aveeno will still go. >> they always sell. >> yeah, right. >> neutrogena product. >> yeah. no, i mean, they have to go. >> why don't you realize. >> that david's going to want to do stop trading? so. >> david. >> get ready. >> it's all. >> yours, partner. >> congratulations again. >> thank you, jim. >> and your family's great. sorry your daughter wasn't there. >> to see you. >> all right. she's busy studying. >> we'll see you tonight. mad money, 6 p.m. as the s&p dips into the red with our eyes glued to dc and the tape. >> modern advisors need. >> modern solutions. >> explore modern. >> alpha, enhance. >> your portfolios, and. >> empower your practice, all without taking. >> your hands off the wheel. >> learn more about wisdomtree. >> portfolio solutions, visit >> portfolio solutions, visit wisdomtree.com. investment opportunities are everywhere you turn. do you charge forward?

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stocks. we started out with a nice little bounce rally s&p we lost it. we're coming back s&p now up about 4/10 of a percent. so it's been a little bit choppy. the nasdaq coming back by 4/10 as well. again after a big sell off yesterday into the close. the dow is up 246 points. very sensitive to these trade headlines that are coming lately. and to the economic data. let's look at treasuries. there's been a lot of buying lately. and treasury yields have fallen sharply. we're higher today 422 so pretty steep steep bounce here from the lows. we were below 4.2 yesterday. the two year yield still lower below that 4% level. we're 30 minutes into the trading session. here are three big movers. we're watching shares of crowdstrike dropping the cybersecurity company's outlook falling short of estimates. the stock also getting a number of price target cuts on the street. we're looking at an 11% decline right now. novo nordisk shares rallying the company offering its blockbuster weight loss drug, wegovy, for less than half the price through a new direct

to consumer pharmacy. also keeping our eye on tesla after another rough day yesterday, a price target cut bearish sales numbers out of europe. stock is up, though a percent. more on tesla coming up. >> market taking some hard in these ism services numbers. let's get to rick santelli. hey rick. yeah the new batch of data looking pretty solid. >> look at equities and rates both moving up factory orders for january coming in as expected which isn't bad when you expect 1.7. and the rear view mirror. we went from minus 9/10 to minus 6/10. 1.7 is the best month over month change since july of last year. strip out transportation and it's up 2/10 exactly as expected. now let's look at durable goods orders shall we? now these are january final numbers. so 3.1 now becomes 3.2. and that of course is a positive number 3.2 would be the best read. going

back to you guessed it july of 24. let's strip out transportation on change. on change matches are mid month read. if we look at capital goods orders nondefense ex aircraft a proxy for capital spending. well that remains it up 8/10. that remains it up 8/10. which is the best number since august of 23. and if we go from orders to shipments, well shipments are under pressure and they remain under pressure for mid month to now down 3/10. down 3/10. that would be the most negative month over month change since july. and finally what we have here is ism and also very positive ism 53.5. that's a full point better than expected. that would be the best rate going back to the last month of last year. 62.6 on services prices paid 62.6 would be the highest since december. and of course we want this to go the other way in the rear view mirror. that was

60.4. if we look at new orders, last look was 51.3. it moves in at 52.2. also the best since the end of last year. and finally employment the employment index after a weaker adp in front of the big jobs report comes in at 53.9. that's a solid read. that would be the best read going all the way back to d of 21. so we see rates moving up. yesterday the low yield in the ten was 4.10 for ten. it's currently now coming back up towards 423. and the high yield today is 426. sarah back to you. >> okay. that's that's good news. thank you rick rick santelli. market reacting to that as rick said we're higher across the board. although some sectors are still lower like technology. it's weighed down by crowdstrike. utilities and energy are lower today. besides the economic data. it's all about trade and tariffs. and there's some solace or hope. i

think being drawn today from what we heard from the commerce secretary, howard lutnick, he's been talking about the potential for a deal on tariffs when it comes to canada and mexico, so that he expects an announcement this afternoon. he said earlier on canada tariffs, the rate will be 25, but some categories may be left out. looking at companies that have complied with usmca, the trade agreement between mexico and canada and the united states, including autos. so maybe a carve out for that, that's that's yielding some hope, at least that they are willing to negotiate this. and we do know that there's a conversation between trump and trudeau. market likes, conversations when that's on the agenda. maybe we'll get some sort of truce or an exemption. although if you listen to the president last night in congress, you know, he did not back down from this tariff strategy and did talk up this april 2nd date, where the administration is set to roll out what they call reciprocal

tariffs. here's how the president framed it. >> april 2nd. reciprocal tariffs kick in and whatever they tariff us other countries we will tariff them. that's reciprocal back and forth. whatever they tax us we will tax them. if they do non-monetary tariffs. to keep us out of their market, then we will do non-monetary barriers to keep them out of our market. they'll be a little disturbance. >> they'll be a little disturbance, but that's okay, he says. which is just another sign that, you know, for anyone saying, oh no, no, no, trump's not going to deal with this market plunge. he's not going to deal with the weaker data. you know, there's a higher threshold because he really believes these tariffs are in the best interest of the united states and will bring back jobs and level the playing field when it comes to

countries, as he says, that are ripping us off. and just to further that point, david, there was a barclays trading note going around. so it turns out last administration, president trump, they looked at how many times he posted on social media about the market, and he posted a lot more on social media last time, around 156 mentions. now it's early into his tenure now, but he only mentioned the stock market once since november. >> right? so ratio wise, given over four years 156, it does appear to be lower given we're only one month in. you know, it's funny, i come back sometimes to when jim went up and spoke to him when he was here, and jim asked him about the market, and it was an uncharacteristic answer at that point as well, where he more or less, i'm paraphrasing, said the markets go up and markets go down instead of the typical trumpian response, which would be america off to the races, baby. >> but instead he's focused on interest rates. and last night. >> as is as is the treasury secretary as well, very much

focused on the ten year mr. besson. i hear in all the interviews, he seems to do just none with us. >> he'll be on with us very soon. good. i think it's coming. good, but. >> keep working on it. sarah. he make it happen. >> but, but but besson knows that he's a bond guy. he knows that in order to see a fall in interest rates, you might have to see a little bit of economic pain and a fall in equity markets, which might be why they're tolerant. in the speech last night, president trump did mention yesterday's move and said we saw a beautiful fall in interest rates. >> now what? you're going to cause a recession to get interest rates lower. >> this is the old saying, burning down your house to cook a steak. although when you spend $3 billion a day on interest expense doesn't hurt. >> no it's. >> did you see the mortgage rates today. yeah i mean three month low. >> yeah. >> and we saw a big pickup in refinancing so. >> well the biggest biggest jump in mortgage applications, the third biggest in the last five years. >> right. and a three month low and a big jump because it tracks the ten year yield. so all of that is good. and if we can if

he can get away with it with just a little softness and a little bit of uncomfortable, a little discomfort on the tariff front and on the market front, fine. we're we're not really talking about recession yet, although i will say adp was was weaker. >> well atlanta fed's already looking at minus two eight. so that's halfway to recession. >> a lot of inputs need to come. >> in. >> for the first quarter. and wall street is not in the negative number yet. but i take your point, sarah. >> the larger though the larger outcome of reordering the global trading system will be years before we really know the answer. and that does appear to be taking taking shape. it's very much unclear. exactly. i can't quite figure out what lutnick is talking about. i mean, is this the reciprocal trade tariffs that mexico and canada will not be dealt with, or is there going to be some rollback of the 25% that just went in place as a result of what was supposed to be interdicting fentanyl or trying to get, you know, stop? i don't. >> know, it seems like he was talking about that. the 25%. >> it felt like that too. but

then i thought that was about fentanyl deaths. that's what he said on our air. >> yeah, that it was a drug war. yeah. they clearly are trying to exact concessions from our trading partners. and it is all about sort of leveling the playing field, even though they're also trying to target the fentanyl and the drugs that are coming across the border. i just want to mention private sector jobs because it was a it was a big downside miss 77,000 jobs. and here's the risk. with all this tariff, you said it will take years. what could happen in the. >> it'll take years to get the i think to know the full ramifications of reordering the global trading system. >> yes. and if those tariffs stay in. >> effect and what the true impact will be. >> but a short term impact could be questions, you know, on the part of employers about confidence and long term planning and hiring less. which is why i think this this report on friday for jobs is going to be so important because we did see this big miss and we are seeing signs that confidence is being shaken. >> yeah. our biggest sequential drop on adp in two years march

of 23. and as they point out, policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month. let's turn to the broader markets as well. our next guest is revising his eps growth forecast for the year lower, but he sees some buying opportunities in health care. david kostin joins us this morning. goldman sachs chief u.s. equity strategist here at post nine dk great to have you back. >> nice to carl. >> what what what was your growth forecast. what is it now. >> it was 11% now looking for earnings growth of 9%. and the way to think about that is the fourth quarter results came in slightly better than we had anticipated. but the weakening of the economic outlook would suggest that the growth level of earnings is going to be pretty similar to what we anticipated before. that's why the growth rate comes out from 11 to 9%. right. and the way the market looks at it is not this year's growth rate but next year's earnings growth rate. and we're looking around 7% which. >> was unchanged unchanged. >> so the level of earnings is unchanged. the starting point a little bit higher because the fourth quarter results were pretty good. >> and hence your year end s&p

target is also unchanged. >> correct. it's 6500 which would be roughly 11% up from the current levels. i think the way to think about most recent activity has been the market. or investors sometimes pay for excitement and sometimes they pay for boredom. and when they think about paying for excitement when trump was elected, the enthusiasm, the prospect of potentially less regulation, potentially lower taxes, more business friendly environment that animated a lot of spirits, and the equity market rose pretty strongly, particularly cyclicals, outperforming defensive stocks by a lot. now the market is paying for boredom because the uncertainty around tariffs, which of course you speak about every day and uncertainty, the market's rotated pretty significantly towards some of the health care some of the consumer staples, some more defensive oriented stocks. the way i think about it is that the companies where less sensitivity, sort of insensitive to some of the vicissitudes of trade policy, is where you want to be owning the market. and you can think about this owner of this building right now,

international exchange, you can think about msci, you can think about some of the health care companies. thermo fisher can think about agilent. companies there are trading less sensitive to how the cyclical versus defensives or how the trade exposed baskets. so that's the that's the discussions we're having with clients right now. >> would it lead you to some areas of the mag seven. >> apple could be an example of a company. the you know, a lot of a lot of uncertainties around the exact policies. and you recall that the president had talked about a tariff on saturday, and then on monday it was reversed. and so there's a lot of uncertainty there. the focus of a lot of portfolio managers has been on the not the mag seven as the sort of part of the hyperscalers and the building out of the of the infrastructure for the ai revolution, if you will. it's been those companies that are going to be using that technology to amplify their revenues. that's really a big area. a lot of the companies in the software industry, because

part of the data structure that we find in conversations with clients, the data needs to get structured in a way that can be used. companies can use it more effectively. and those companies you can think of mongodb coming down a lot last year. last year was really the trade around infrastructure. and this year the focus has been much more on which companies could benefit their sales as a result of ai. >> but on tariffs, david, where does it show up for companies? is it in margins? is it in hiring as we just talked about? is it in eps sales. where do you expect to see the impact most? >> well, it's likely to be a little bit on the unit volume potentially and a little bit on the on the margin front. so our model of earnings would suggest that if tariffs, which are currently around 3%, if they would go up by potentially five percentage points to 8%, sarah, that would reduce our earnings estimates by 1 to 2%. so instead of growing at sort of 9% this year, 7% next year, it could be

slightly lower. as a consequence. >> every time he comes out with new tariffs, do you revise your earnings expectations. >> well no we have a sensitivity model. so we understand what the impact would be. and the reason we don't officially publish a new forecast is because the timing, the specifics of when the cavs may in fact be imposed, whether they may be renegotiated. so we have a model we can talk about. we do talk about with portfolio managers and clients about how it would affect under different scenarios. but really once things get, you know, clarified, then we can actually publish those estimates. but the sensitivity factor is a five percentage point move in tariffs would be around 1 to 2 percentage points in earnings. >> i was talking about interest rates and how bond yields are falling. and i wonder if that is an offset for some of this tariff disruption, because ultimately that should be a good thing for the economy. >> the most important far and away most important variable driving sales and margins for any company is gdp growth. gdp growth in america. second is gdp growth around the world. the other variables in a model interest rates, oil prices,

inflation have differing impacts on different sectors, but their aggregate much less important than really growth. it's really a story of growth and the idea of the uncertainty around the tariffs does raise questions about the sustainability. >> it comes to growth. we get jobs on friday right. number of other things i don't know i don't know where you guys are. you're just going to defer chief economist on this. >> i'm an excellent economist jan hatzius my colleague. so he'll be here to tell you exactly what are you worried? >> are you worried? are clients worried? i don't know, clients. >> clients? no. the client's belief and the portfolio managers are focused on the general thrust of the us economy is continuing to grow. there's concerns about some of the weakening data most recently. so there's some concerns. and in our view, my view, you need to get some evidence that the growth is continuing to be pretty durable in order to have the us stock market rally a lot. the market's obviously sold off 6% from the high two weeks ago, so it's a little bit weaker. some of the data that's

consistent with some of the data being weaker, and the way to combat and navigate in this environment would be companies where they are less sensitive. their share prices have been less sensitive, they have pretty stable earnings. so the variability of earnings over the last decade is pretty low. so that gives us some starting point and then have traded less consistently or less in line with where cyclicals versus defensives have traded or companies that are exposed to tariffs. we want to sort of be insensitive to think about dante. the opposite of love is not hate, it's indifference. so let's look for companies where there is, you know, insensitivity to some of the big developments that are happening. >> now. we're back to your old earnings duration theme. in a way, yes. >> that's the source of american exceptionalism. i've traveled a lot. i've been in europe, i've been in asia. i was in middle east ten days ago. the source of american exceptionalism is the companies that have been investing in their business. and that is the distinguishing feature of the us equity market. 40% of the cash flow of companies gets reinvested here in the united states. it's only

26% around the world. so the idea for a decade, consistently reinvesting more and more and more of that cash in, growing the business. and then, of course, the situation in the united states where companies and the sort of legal process allows investors to benefit from that, that's the source of the exceptionalism. when you go around the world, we talk to a number of companies want to list here in the united states. that's the reason why. but it's this investment, this reinvestment in the united states that's so unique relative to the rest of the world. and you look at the magnificent seven car. you're the stocks you like to talk about. as we all like to talk about, they have reinvestment rate of 56%. and so, you know they're super investment. and that's where the concerns are. maybe they're investing too much money. it's a whole different topic of conversation. >> we'll get to that next time you're on david. good stuff. thanks for coming in david carson, as we go to break. look at the roadmap for the rest of the hour. nvidia and the semis rebounding a bit today. after that volatile session yesterday. the group has struggled though this year we'll talk about how to play it. >> plus tesla is always trying

to rebound at least these days after of course another big drop yesterday. it's still down more than 30% this year. we've got some new sales figures. we'll tell you about them. >> and financials coming off their worst day in two years. we're going to get a read on the big banks from kb ceo big show still ahead with the dow up 125 points. squawk on the street will be right back. >> at u.s. bank we know how good it feels to reach a milestone, but we also know what really goes into getting you there. that's why we introduced co-browsing, which connects you to a real banker in real time to help you do anything from adding a new debit card, learning how to save smarter, even creating spending funds. you mind if. >> i just grab the. >> one with co-browsing? we're always there for you on your road to here, because there's nothing as powerful as the power of us. >> welcome to our world of extraordinary hydration science. meet liquid i.v. sugar free hydration. scientifically

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>> wow. >> it's been a volatile time for the semis lately. the group down for the year. names like nvidia falling double digits. joining us now with reaction. cantor

fitzgerald analyst c.j. muse. would you be looking to buy here some of these beaten down names c.j? >> yeah, sure. thank you for having me. i'd say absolutely. you know, i think that we've kind of had a perfect storm here where, you know, the market is worried about kind of a slowing gdp uncertainty around tariffs and then bottoms up from an nvidia perspective. you know, their guide relative to the buy side was only in line. so you know you could take a few knocks on it. but if you take a step back you know i will continue to be a robust theme. and now nvidia trading 16 times next year's earnings. i think it's, you know, too cheap to ignore. and i think it's time to be greedy. >> what about what the president said about chips last night in his speech before congress, saying that he's not a fan of the chips act, and he wants to get rid of it. what happens to the beneficiaries and the remaining money? >> yeah. you know, a great question. you know, i'd say i think there's some nuance to it. you know, number one, i think the previous administration

getting tsmc to build 100,000 wafer starts in the united states was an amazing thing. so i give them kudos for that. i do think that from president trump's perspective, you know, the view is that you can use tariffs and other means to get investments, further investments in the us. and i would say very, very importantly, the 25% itc tax credit is what got tsmc to the united states. it's what will get others to invest here. so, you know, i think that he's talking about less subsidies, less die kind of requirements for investments, but still very focused on bringing the semiconductor industry to the united states. so i think bringing this industry to the us is a common goal. but how you achieve that, i think, is where you're seeing, you know, the differences in in strategy, right. >> so is it happening and what's

the time frame. >> so you know, tsmc in the last few days announced an additional 100,000 wafer starts. and to give the audience some context, you know, apple uses about 60,000 wafer starts a month. so having 200,000 over the next three plus years is a great kind of footprint for leading edge manufacturing in the us. but we do need more. you know, i'd say the big question or the implications to intel and how we further subsidize their efforts. we do want an indigenous leading edge manufacturer here. and so i think it's incumbent upon the united states to help them. but i suspect that the administration's view is more of getting fabulous players like qualcomm, broadcom and nvidia to perhaps help support intel as opposed to government subsidies. >> got it. thank you. keep it quick. but good to get your take

and your and your buy call on nvidia there. cj muse from canon. >> take care. >> when we come back we're going to watch tesla following that big drop in sales in germany. plus another firm cutting its target on the stock today. we'll get those details after a quick break. >> we empower those who act, those who see the correlation between things above and things below the surface, those who navigate risk by meeting every turn with a heightened awareness of what's possible. constant assessment. determine the best position. catch the perfect wave cme group where risk meets opportunity. >> question why. >> would the former head of. >> business development at merck become vice chairman of a company currently valued at $30 million? like him, you should meet in webex symbol onlv on the

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think bonds represent safety in a world where the president, not inflation, has become the chief impediment to higher stock prices. too many companies can be tariffed. there's just way too much fear. >> mad money weeknights six eastern. >> cnbc are keeping an eye on shares of tesla, as we do every day. you can see down a little less than half a percent. big drop yesterday. of course goldman today cut its price target on the stock. it's now 320 bucks. it had been 345 saying it continues to expect tesla to face a difficult fundamental environment in the near term. and new sales figures are out of europe and they're adding to some concerns at least. let's get over to phil lebeau. he's got more for us on that. >> phil and david, let's start. first off with that goldman note. look, they remain neutral on tesla the stock. but this is a note basically saying the headwinds are there at least near term. when you look at tesla the delivery of vehicles the price target as you mentioned cut to 320 from 345 q1 deliveries. they're bringing that down. they're also bringing down their full year estimate for delivery growth, dropping it to 7% from 10%. weaker demand in

key markets. that's the theme of this note from goldman. and when you look at the sales figures, as we look at annual deliveries that tesla has, has put in over the last couple of years. look, in february in germany, these figures were just out in the last 24 hours, down 76% february in france down 26%. shares of tesla are still up since president trump's election. i think they were at 245, 250 when he was elected. they've gone up and they've come back down. and what you're looking at right now is a company that is seeing weak sales everywhere. norway down 45%. we don't get the quarterly delivery numbers, you know, until early april. and so we don't have us data at this point. official data. but sarah, there are anecdotal reports around and we've seen the reports of people protesting outside of tesla service centers and also tesla offices. there are anecdotal reports that we're going to see weaker sales here in the us now. is it the model y

because there's a transition there, or is it overall people are saying, i just don't want to be around the tesla brand right now. given elon musk's involvement with the trump administration. doge. et cetera. hard to separate the two of them. but there clearly is a feeling that in terms of delivery demand, it's weak around the world. >> okay, phil, thank you. i believe musk also speaking this morning at a morgan stanley conference. so we'll see if we get anything from that. phil lebeau, time now for news update. let's get to silvana henao. morning, silvana. >> hey, sarah. good morning to you. the supreme court this morning ruled that president trump cannot withhold payment to foreign aid organizations for work they've already performed. and it was a closely divided 5 to 4 decision with justices alito, thomas gorsuch and kavanaugh dissenting. google wants the justice department under president trump to ease off efforts to break up the company, according to bloomberg. in a meeting last week, representatives from parent company alphabet attempted to get the government to soften its stance on a breakup. a federal

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>> tit for tat on tariffs is sparking fears about stagflation. steve liesman is here. and who better to explain than steve? >> yeah. thanks, david. >> you know, stagflation doesn't normally happen because when growth weakens, prices tend to fall along with it. that is, unless artificial price increases. for example something like tariffs are introduced. so conventional wisdom suggests that tariff prices will pass through the system, raise prices one time without sparking wider inflation. but there's another side of the debate that's more troubled about those tariffs. they say inflation is now above target. short term inflation expectations are elevated and tariffs can reduce productivity, reducing competition, making companies fat and lazy with the protection. and companies have pricing power. ben ammons of fed watch advisors writes businesses are far more attuned to passing costs today because they have pricing power compared to 2018, when inflation was weak and

consistently below 2%. new york fed president john williams, speaking to bloomberg yesterday, said much of the tariff cost does pass through to the consumer and inflation can hit months later when intermediate tariff goods are then included into finished goods. markets are embracing the conventional wisdom of a benign tariff effect, allowing the fed to cut rates. three rate cuts are now priced in for this year one in june, july and october. that's a sign traders think growth and not inflation is going to be the driving concern for the fed. but all the fed can do is wait and watch to see how price hikes work through the economy. do we get a stagflation threat? it got burned last time by signing up for team transitory, with the last round of inflation. might be more reluctant to join that team. transitory this time on tariffs. >> karl good setup talking a bit steve liesman. the major averages are trying to rally following yesterday's roller coaster ride. dow's up 138 today. let's talk about how to position from here david zervos joins us. jefferies chief market

strategist and jeffrey kleintop charles schwab chief global investment strategist. guys good to see you both. thanks for joining us. >> good to see you, karl. >> david, on steve's point, i mean, and this nick timiraos piece in the journal today about stagflation. i'm going to bet you're not a buyer. >> it's a good bet, carl. we've we've got to know each other pretty well over the years. so. yes, definitely not a buyer of that story. don't believe, as i think we've talked about many times that the tariff story is really the big driver. the big driver for me is the story. and even more importantly, the smaller government footprint story. or as secretary bessant likes to call it, the re privatization story. i think that's a huge productivity win, a huge positive supply shock, ultimately disinflationary and great for growth. and i think that's really what the big picture focus should be on. the tariff story is just not nearly as important as we make it on a day to day basis, and the market likes to focus on it, i get it, it's a tangible thing, and dereg

is less tangible on a day to day basis. but it is the big picture story for me, right? >> so then the prices paid survey data that we've been absorbing last couple of weeks is truly about front running. >> i think a little bit. >> and, you know, as steve said in his opening remarks, you know, these one off moves are one off moves. it's not a sign that we're anchoring inflation expectations or demand is really pushing prices to the point where the fed should be worried that they've got an inflation problem that is intractable. these are supply dislocation problems for sure. on tariffs and much more likely to be one off. so getting caught up in the transitory versus non transitory debate is very different than it was say three years ago when inflation spiked on big movements in economic activity coming out of covid. so i think it's a easier way for the fed to say this is not nearly as important as it from a permanent standpoint. on inflation shifts. and again, we have a lot of

disinflationary forces that i think are going to offset that in terms of lower cost of doing business because of less regulation and a smaller government footprint. smaller government sector just brings labor and capital resources to the private sector. and that is a that is a disinflationary story. >> i agree, i think the fed can look past it. but david, i do feel like you have to explain if you're going to say that the that the tariffs aren't that big of a deal for i mean look at the retail sector. look at the auto sector when you're talking about, you know, 50 or more percent of your goods coming from overseas that are now going to be taxed 25% higher or 20% higher in many cases. and you either have to eat that or pass it on to a consumer that's looking increasingly weary. why is that not a consequence to growth? >> well, sarah, it's kind of the same story that we were discussing when interest rates were rising and all the private equity and real estate guys were jumping up and down, but it didn't really have the negative effect on the overall economy. a lot of people had locked in

lower rates and other factors were benefiting. the financials benefited from it. so yes, you have certain sectors that might be hurt, but i think the overall story, the us is not really a big international economy. we're much more of a domestic economy compared to our trading partners, which is why we have these these deficits that we have on the trade side. so, you know, in the y equals c plus plus g plus x world, the x is just not nearly as important as it is in, say, many european countries or asian countries. so i just you can tell a story that's that's ugly in a certain sector. it's just a question of the macro efft. and the macro effect to me is much less significant than people are making it out to be. when you really dig into the internationalization side of the us economy. >> all right, jeffrey, we haven't forgotten about you. so you heard david. he's saying tariffs punches above its weight. if i could sort of paraphrase for investors. do you see it that way. and or what do you see in terms of the day to day impact here and going forward from this back and forth

around tariffs. >> well, you know, one of the things to keep in mind is the biggest exporters from canada and from mexico are not canadian or mexican businesses. they're u.s. businesses. it's ford and gm, perhaps y later this afternoon we may actually see those auto tariffs in mexico and canada get rolled back. not a surprise to me to see that. that's where you would see maybe some of the pricing flow through in that category, simply because those auto manufacturers would need to pass that on. but i'm more excited about what i'm seeing. outside of the us. german stocks are up over 20% in us dollars this year. david just talked about how deregulation is a story here in the us. smaller government, it's bigger government in europe. europe's stock market continues to widely outperform the us after this german election. more fiscal stimulus is coming, more defense spending, more infrastructure spending, particularly after the trump zelensky meeting. and i think actually there's a new magnificent seven. there are seven stocks in europe's defense index. they're up over 30% this year compared to the us's seven,

which are down ten. seems like betting on european defense spending is a maybe safer bet than betting on continued infrastructure spending here in the us. >> you think so? you think that's sustainable? i mean, we're going to be talking about europe a lot more in terms of opportunity for investors for some time. >> i believe. so look, you've got a number of factors coming into play here. first of all, europe's economic surprise index is up and rising. it's actually beating on data in the us it's not. earnings revisions every week this year have been higher. in europe. we're seeing a real turnaround in momentum after two years of a rolling recession through europe. that's reversing. and we're talking about potentially ■k7800 billion of additional defense spending over the coming years. so this is going to be a major driver for years to come, not just here in the first quarter. >> yeah. we always joke about larry fink's comment in davos that the mood was was absolute despair. and now the biggest, best start for european names relative to the us this century. david jeffrey we'll talk soon. thanks guys.

>> thanks. >> thank you. >> as an example hensoldt ticker h a g up 77% in the last three months is their defense. defense in europe? yep. still to come. the bank etf, kbe coming off its worst day of the year. financials trying to rebound in today's trade. shares of all the big banks though down sharply over the past month of trading. we're going to discuss the outlook for the group and whether anything's really changed when we come right back. >> trend tracker is sponsored by >> trend tracker is sponsored by cme group. the cme - [narrator] this is my coffee shop. we just moved into a bigger space, brought on another employee, and ordered new branded gear for the team. it was so easy. i just chose my products, added our logo, and placed my order. bring your own team together with custom gear. get started today at customink.com.

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>> i checked good rx because it can beat my co-pay. who wouldn't like that? >> even if you have insurance, goodrx can help you save. >> okay. >> we'll see you next time. you. >> another good reason to check. >> goodrx ambition to me is the american dream. it's why my mother came over from taiwan. it's why people watch cnbc. because they want a better future. i was working as an analyst in shanghai when my company landed in the news on accusations of espionage. i decided right there and then that i wanted to be on the other side reporting on the news. i love bringing transparency to complicated topics. i think it's so important for us to deliver the right numbers to our audience so they can make better investment decisions. san francisco was built on ambition, a belief that anyone can disrupt any industry and change the world. >> financials were the biggest laggard in tuesday's sell off. our next guest sees now as the opportunity to buy some of the so-called, quote trophies on sale. joining us, tom michaud, ceo of kbw. that's the stifel company. tom, first of all, let's just talk about that retreat yesterday. what was

behind it? and did it worry you at all? so i. >> think it's a couple of things. the stocks have been very good stocks and there was a lot of room for profit taking. and so the market probably was looking for a catalyst to take some profits in the bank stocks. and so we've had a pretty material sell off. we've had 10% pull back on the bk. and then the regional banks is down about 15%. so i think it's that. and then also two you know there's a lot of there's been a lot of headline reaction. our view is that the base case outlook for the bank stocks and the bank group hasn't changed. and so we still remain optimistic on what the fundamentals are going to bring. so we think it's a chance to buy the trophies when they're on sale, which i think is always been over my career. the best thing to do. >> why are you optimistic? >> so first of all, we're not going to have what we had in 23 and 24. the period of the

inverted yield curve is over. all the unwinding of the liquidity of covid. all those things were very challenging for bank fundamentals. we also had a very pro-regulation environment. so the our view is at least a we think the bank stocks can still do well even on a soft landing, which was generally what we were thinking earlier this year. we got more optimistic on the economy. i know we've gotten some more cautionary language recently. i think really it's because we had such a big trump bump after the election that now we're getting a little bit more slower outlook, but still, we think the environment, what we've learned in our channel checks the last couple of weeks is that we still think the economic outlook that's in our models still exists. so our view is that we don't see a credit cycle on the horizon. we continue to see lots of share repurchase. we continue to see

deregulation coming and happening as we speak. and we think these are all very good environment for the financial stocks. >> what about tariffs. just trying to think about how that impacts this group in particular. i don't think it was a coincidence that citigroup was down the most yesterday. how big of a chunk of business is cross-border flow that could be disrupted and harmed. if we see tariffs for that one or for the group? >> you know, my personal view, it all wraps into the general overall economy. if we get slower growth we think that's okay. what we don't want to see is a credit cycle. and we just had a big investor conference a couple of weeks ago. there's a competitor conference going on right now. there is nothing on the horizon that makes us worried about a credit cycle. so we think these stocks already embed slow growth in them. and these banks are also repurchasing shares at a faster rate. so as long as like the terrorists you speak about don't

dramatically change the macro economic outlook for gdp growth, that tilts us into a recession. we think these stocks are okay. and look, there's a lot of underlying positives happening. like i said deregulation we think m&a is no longer there's no longer a hostile approach to m&a which could also be very favorable. and i think in many ways is necessary. >> tom, our shareholders or investors, right to be disappointed that that m&a bounce hasn't happened yet. >> it seems like, carl, with that question, you've been in some of our meetings with investors recently. there was a sense that there would be a big splash. the reality is, if you read these proxies about backgrounds to mergers, you'll see it takes months to put together these mergers. i would say rule of thumb is it takes a quarter or two. and what we were hearing from these companies publicly is they wanted to see what happened with the election. so my sense is, is it's building

okay. and we will see a steady stream if we don't see a big splash. but i want to get to something else, carl, which is that i know investors were expecting a very big splash on wall street. there's a tremendous amount of pent up demand for investment banking services. there's a lot of private equity, liquidity or exiting that. that is likely to happen. i still and we still believe that's going to happen. but i think the timing is a little bit less certain with the market volatility. so when you think about bank mergers it's been happening for 30 years likely to continue to happen. if you think about overall m&a activity it's a question of timing. but i think there still is a lot of demand for these services coming. >> yeah. well i think that is the hope. but as you say, there was a great deal of enthusiasm coming into the beginning of the year. of course, may take more time. tom, you know, when i hear you say there's nothing in the cycle that worries you in terms of the credit cycle that worries me when i hear you say, there's

nothing at all. you don't hear yourself and go, wait a second. i always get a little worried. >> you know, david, you and i have been talking about this for a long time. i promised myself in 0708. we're never going to miss the mile markers again. okay. the mile markers that you can't miss are credit, i think, and the health of the consumer. so yes, slower economy could put pressure on both those items. but what i can tell you is the strength of the balance sheets of the banking industry are so strong, and so much of the credit is outside of banking. now that i think the industry is well positioned. i mean, look, i would still give the industry really high marks for the last couple of years that what the industry came through. so, so but, but but look we've had recent channel checks. so yes, david if we see credit start to turn we see the consumer become unhealthy. we're going to be changing estimates. and they're likely to go down not up. but to date we haven't seen that. and

we're not ready to make the call that that turn will happen. >> right. finally, you know, i've had an opportunity to talk to a couple of the people who run some of the nation's big banks lately. and they certainly are encouraged by the change in regulatory regime. it's always hard to sort of gauge it, but i'm curious to get your take. i mean, things are going to be different, obviously, than they were under the biden administration. >> i would say the activity we all saw the speech last night, i'd say the activity has been exceeding expectations for the speed upon which what we've been seeing happen. and what i can tell you is, you know, in my career, i saw the rating, the regulatory agencies taking actions that i had not seen them take in 39 years in terms of how expansionary they were. i think the agencies are going back to their core mission, and i think it's going to take a burden off the banking industry. and by the way, the banking industry is only half of financial services roughly, that that that

regulatory activity wasn't happening to the same degree in the non-banks. so to the extent we get a level playing field or a more level playing field, i think that's another reason to be bullish on the banks. and then also too, i think consolidation, if done appropriately, will make the banking industry stronger, which will allow it to stand up as a better competitor globally as well as with non-banks. and i think that's likely that's more likely to happen with and just this past week, the fdic rolled back the biden administration guidelines. and that's a positive. >> yeah. great. all right. good good view of the landscape there tom. appreciate it. thank you. >> yeah. and again we feel as if the industry is in good shape. and whatever's coming on the horizon, it's well prepared to handle it. and that's why we continue to believe with this sell off, as well as even the dividend yields which are safe and likely to grow. we think it's a good environment to buy

trophies. >> thank you tom michelle. >> thank you. want to check on a few retail movers because we are still in this period of earnings season where we're getting a lot of news on the consumer and retail, and you've got a few notable losers. today. abercrombie and fitch shares down sharply. they're down 14.5%. the quarter was solid. it was earnings guidance that was disappointing to investors, especially for a stock and a company that they've had high hopes of. this has been a company that has outperformed all of retail with double digit sales growth. that's clearly slowing down. the company didn't sound that bearish. brant horowitz, the ceo, said. we're going to continue growth, but clearly the market's disappointed. the stock has given a lot back, but has been on this huge rise into the into that. we also have some good commentary from other earnings movers like campbell's campbell soup the ceo there talking about. and the stock is down 4%. the softness in some of the snacking categories says the anticipated sequential top line improvement did not materialize

during the quarter, and we now have a more muted second half expectations. also. >> organic sales growth guidance came down there as well. >> yeah, right. because of the snacking. and that's you know maybe a little bit more discretionary foot locker similar theme there as we came into february. and this reminded me a little bit of what we heard from target. according to the foot locker ceo mary dillon, i'd say we just started to see some consumer uncertainty begin to pick up, and i'd say that was kind of across the board, and it led to some choppy performance. and the last one that talked about softness as well was ross stores, discount retailers saying the softness we are currently seeing is primarily due to macro pressures impacting consumer confidence, resulting in a pullback in discretionary spending. that said, we believe that some of the recent challenges we are seeing could be transitory. always dangerous to say the t word, david. but what we can pick up is there is a theme, and the theme really seems to have picked up in february when we started to get some of the weakness in the consumer confidence numbers. now target campbell's, ross footlocker, everybody confirming

that they did see consumers pull back on spending. the question is that lasting and does it become more pronounced. >> right okay. that does it for this hour or for squawk on the street at this point, keeping a close eye on markets which are in the green. but we've got a in the green. but we've got a lot more coverage before the spotlight— we struggled to keep the lights on. i saw more for myself. and sofi gives members the financial tools to see more for themselves. join the official bank of the nba. sofi. get your money right. >> now that's better. trey palmer doesn't have a massive call center. instead, your calls are answered by real people who know you by name and are empowered to help. like me. hey,

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hand-selected daily by cnbc. experts live now for free, go to cnbc.com spotlight. >> good wednesday morning. welcome to money movers i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen on the floor of the new york stock exchange. today the trump trade continues to fade. all the major averages are well actually major averages are mixed. s&p is roughly flat lower though, since the president's inauguration in january, as these global trade tensions show no signs of easing. what it means for your money this hour. >> then the. >> ranking member of the house ways and means committee is with us congressman richard neal, committee in charge of shaping tax and tariff policy for the country. his response to the president's joint address last night and the commerce secretary's comments this morning, moving markets. >> the chair of the ism services committee, this morning's numbers showing a mixed outlook for the economy as prices paid, rose for the