but then we had that massive reversal. >> and moved 2% and then faded. >> what are we going to finish today? >> don't do it that then. then we'll go higher. >> up 8080 basis points. >> all right, all right. good stuff joe t baba. >> i think it reaches an all time high. >> all right. i hope you'll join me on closing bell. we'll see if carrie's right exchanges now. >> thank you very much, scott. and welcome to the exchange. i'm kelly evans. and stocks are rebounding this afternoon on news that the us is reportedly weighing a one month delay of auto tariffs on canada and mexico. shares of gm and ford jumping 4 to 5% on that news. stellantis up 7%. we'll get the very latest plus another whatever it takes moment for europe. those stocks outperforming the us this year. and germany just announced something that analysts are calling big, bold and a potential game changer for the country's economy. german bond yields just saw their biggest one day jump by some measures since 1990. we will talk through

all the implications and the surprising impact those cuts could have on this name and the sector it belongs to. this is not a place my mind had gone to yet. it's down more than 30% so far this year as well. tweet me your guesses as per usual. we'll reveal it ahead. but first let's get to dom chiu with more on these markets. dom. >> we are at session highs right now, just about where we were up 41 points just about maybe a minute or so ago. kelly. but we're up 40 points for the s&p 500 to 5817 at the lows of the session we were actually down roughly 36 points. so it's been a pretty wide range so far. but again towards session highs up two thirds of 1%. pay particular attention to the level 5728 in the s&p 500. that is the 200 day moving average or longer term trend line for the s&p. we have not hit it yet. we came close over the last couple of days, but we are still holding above that right now. the dow industrials up three quarters of 1%, 316 points to a level of 42,008 36. the nasdaq composite up about a similar percentage

amount about three quarters of 1% 157 points 18,446. is your trade there? a few earnings reports to highlight on the consumer front this morning moving in different directions. we have a gain in footlocker shares despite a mixed quarterly report and a forecast that came in softer than expected. but its comparable store sales were better than expected, though shares up 6%. meanwhile, abercrombie and fitch and campbell's soup. each of those came out with earnings reports as well, and their forecast there led to some downside for abercrombie and fitch down about 12% and campbell's company down about 3%. their forecast is showing at least some signs of a flagging, somewhat snacking division there. so campbell's soup will focus there as well. keep an eye on those retail focused names. and then the stock of the day right now is novo nordisk, the danish drug making giant most known for wegovy ozempic. those glp one weight loss and diabetes drugs is up 3.75% because it announced it is going to start offering wegovy, its blockbuster drug, on

glp one, at about half of the list cost through a direct to consumer online pharmacy. if it sounds familiar. eli lilly, a big competitor, did the same thing last year as well. so novo nordisk, moving on, that bit of news up 3.75%. we'll keep an eye on that. remember it's been an underperformer over the last year. we'll see if this thing turns around because of this news. i'll send things back over to you. >> all right, don, thank you very much. now, the white house is reportedly weighing this one month delay of auto tariffs on canada and mexico. it comes after a softer patch of economic data and some weakness in the stock market. big miss on adp this morning. with private companies adding just 77,000 new workers in february. about half of what was expected. my next guest says even if president trump walks back his tariff plans, economic uncertainty will continue to grow. here to explain is stephen davis, senior fellow at the hoover institution and creator of the economic policy uncertainty index, along with cnbc senior economics reporter steve liesman. welcome to you both. steve liesman, will you just remind us a little bit

about the significance? i see this index now cited everywhere. >> yeah. well, we've been tracking it for a long time, and i've known steve davis for quite a bit of time. and we talk about this. it's an index that looks at newspapers, looks at variances in in economic forecasts, looks at the tax code i believe also for changes there for how much is stuff changing when it comes to economic policy. and i think steve will talk eloquently about this. but the idea is it is correlated with things like stalling investment or if things are not uncertain, increasing investment as well as a certain underlying confidence. people have to move ahead with key economic decisions. >> and of course, we're seeing, you know, people look at the investment numbers in gdp. it's kind of like softness everywhere. steven davis, do you think that this is why i mean, tell tell us more about what you're what message your index is sending about growth right now. >> yes. it's definitely a

contributing factor. so if we focus on the trade policy uncertainty piece that's really skyrocketed since donald trump's reelection. and accounts for much of the increase in the. overall policy uncertainty index that you just showed. you know, it's worth think about what this means. >> for the economy. >> we'd like businesses to focus on making better products, serving their customers, and creating good workplaces. instead, they're trying to dodge the tornadoes coming from washington, many of which involve trade policy. if these if these slapdash on again, off again tariff hikes stay in place, it means higher costs for businesses and higher prices for consumers. they are already prompting promises of retaliation from canada and china to raise their tariffs on us goods. mexico says it will retaliate too. that's bad news for us export sectors. and even if the tariff hikes are reverse, and this is to your point, they contribute to an atmosphere of

uncertainty that discourages investment in hiring. and that means fewer jobs for american workers. and one last point on this. all of this undercutting undermines trust in the reliability of the us as a trade partner. and that loss of trust undercuts the willingness of businesses, both american businesses and foreign businesses, to invest in the us economy. so it's bad news all the way around, in my view. >> so, steve liesman, the president's style is very much to keep adversaries and even friends guessing. so it's obvious that if that's the way he's going to go about achieving any major goal, whether it's foreign policy, domestic policy or otherwise, we shouldn't expect a whole lot of clarity in the next couple of years. >> no, but it would be nice if there were some economists around the president who gave him the concept of cost benefit analysis. right. which is that, oh, maybe you do get something out of the negotiating tactic, but what do you lose when it

comes to the way you're going about this process? i think i said pretty strongly yesterday. my objection is not with the president's objectives. that's entirely up to him. but the issue is the process here. think about what the president of gm has been dealing with the last three days. you had the tariffs happen, and now today there's this issue of this carve out. i talked to an executive at a car company yesterday. they said they didn't know if a product crossed the border several times. if the tariffs would nest upon each other such that the ultimate tariff was much, much higher. what should what do we want the president of gm to be thinking about the next model, the competition with overseas. but they have no idea what their cost basis is going to be. so perhaps this is a strategy that works in negotiation, but i think that the cost of that

strategy needs to be considered. and the ultimate impact on business of this kind of uncertainty, even when he's trying to do good things like bring back manufacturing to america, who doesn't want that to happen? but you got to step back and say, what's the process by which this is happening? and is there a cost that is, at least in the short term, outweighing the benefit? >> or i'll. >> call you professor davis. i'm not sure if that strictly applies, but it's been surprising to me the extent to which consumers seem to have a lot of tariff uncertainty factoring into their confidence and spending were kind of more used to this on the business side. also, going back to the first administration, a lot of people said the fact that those tax cuts went first took a lot of the sting out of tariffs when they happened. and tariffs, of course, are smaller than they are now. and so we are also facing this kind of double barreled uncertainty of tariff policy on the one hand. and will those tax cuts and when will they, you know, get extended. >> yeah i think that's exactly right. the tax cuts and some of

the regulatory moves by the trump administration and the first trump administration did boost growth and jobs in the united states. and they they kind of overwhelmed the negative effects of the tariffs, the tariffs. so that's as you say. you know, at the best we're going to get now is a continuation of the previous tax cut, not a new one. and in addition, the other thing i the other thing i'd note is the tariffs we're talking about now, especially this reciprocal tariff idea that president trump mentioned in his speech last night, would take us to a place we haven't been in the last 75 years. so it's a more aggressive move away from low tariffs. old trading order led by the us that we've been that we've grown accustomed to. >> fair enough. gentlemen. thanks. we appreciate it. we'll continue to follow this index quite closely. stephen davis and our own steve liesman. meantime, one place that's been a little more certain, i guess you could

say bond yields dropping significantly. it's causing a stir in the housing market. and diana olick is here with the very latest. diana. well, kelly, after several weeks of declines, mortgage. demand finally came back to life last week, jumping 20% overall from the previous week. that's the third biggest weekly jump in the last five years. and it's all thanks to the continuing slide in mortgage rates. the average on the 30 year fixed for last week dropped to 6.73%, from 6.88% for loans with 20% down. rates are now 29 basis points lower than they were the same week a year ago. the big driver in demand was refinancing. those applications jumped 37% for the week and were 83% higher than the same week a year ago. now, while it was definitely a big gain, i would note a bit of caution here that the volumes are still so low that it kind of exaggerates those percentages. mortgage applications to buy a home rose 9% for the week, and were just 2% higher than the same week a year ago. we are, of course, getting into the historically busy spring season. these numbers are seasonally adjusted.

it is nice to see the weekly bump, but we're still at around the lowest level in purchase demand since 1995. every other metric is pointing to a rough start to this housing season. prices, high consumer confidence low, supply still low, and homes sitting on the market longer. kelly. diana. we were sort of all talking about this this morning. do you think it's possible people revise literally for cash? i mean for other incentives than say, you know, trying to refi down from an ultra high rate to a slightly less dull one? yeah, we absolutely have seen cash out refinances, but we've also seen more second loans, that is applications for refinance. so you can take out a second loan to pay for things perhaps for college for home renovations. those wouldn't be in the refinance pool. they would be in the second loan pool for a new loan. but we are seeing a little bit of a tick up. still, consumers today are very careful. back from the great recession when people were underwater on their loans, that stuck. so you really don't see a high share of people taking a lot of cash out of their homes,

despite the fact that there is just record home equity in the market right now due to higher prices. great point. diana, thank you for now. we appreciate it. diana olick. well, the stock market hates tariffs but loves cutting government waste. that's according to my next guest, who says the market still believes the president is using tariffs as a negotiating tool rather than a permanent policy. let's bring in charlie bobrinskoy. he's the vice chair and head of the investment group at ariel. charlie, i don't know if you heard those comments that we were just that discussion about economic uncertainty and how it's contributing. i don't know if this would be part of that overlay, but we just got some new comments from the president about this call that he had with trudeau of canada. these are truth social posts from a few moments ago. he said the call ended in a somewhat friendly manner, but he was unable to tell me when the canadian election is taking place. among other issues, he said, i told the governor that he well, that's his word, governor. he said i told him that he largely caused the problems we have with them because of his weak border policies, which allowed tremendous amounts of fentanyl and illegal aliens to pour into the united states. these are responsible for the death of

many people. so what is the market supposed to do with this information as it weighs reports that auto tariffs might be delayed? >> just to amend what you. >> introduced the segment on, i believe the market hopes that trump is. using this as a. negotiating tactic. i'm not sure. >> they're sure. >> of that, nor am i. basic dynamic here is that the market thinks that the that trump. >> will be rational. >> that he will realize that a trade war is bad for everybody, and that he will ultimately. >> get some. >> concessions from canada and mexico. >> and then we'll declare victory. that's still what the market hopes. and when we get signs that it's. >> true, we get. >> a rally in the market like today. >> but there is. >> still a real. >> fear out there. >> that if he. >> sticks with this. >> and we end up with 25% tariffs on our friends. >> and we. >> get reciprocal tariffs from europe and. obviously china, that could be ugly. the market is a free trader. the market

believes that tariffs are very destructive. the market believes it's very hard on the consumer. it's inflationary. all of those things are bad. so the market is. hoping that this is a negotiating ploy that's going to result in some better border enforcement. and then we can declare victory and go home. >> you know what i've heard a couple of times, i think larry lindsey alluded to this when he was on with us last time. another trader friend was telling me that his point of view on this yesterday, that he thinks this is ultimately meant to forge a closer north american, literally something almost approaching an eu, maybe even the same currency for canada and the us, so that we can then emerge from this stronger to face off against china and potentially russia. i mean, that's a pretty huge event if it were to take place. i don't know if the market would even want to go there in terms of discounting it, but are we thinking big enough? and what does that all mean for investors in the meantime? >> kelly. >> that's basically what we had with nafta, which which i of course support which business and the markets love, which is a

reduction in trade barriers between the three largest north american countries, canada, mexico and the united states. that would be wonderful. and that's what we free traders are all for. but boy, this is a funny way to get to that result. i mean, we are you've seen what's happened to retail stores in canada. destocking jack daniels, you're seeing support for the conservative party in canada plummet because of the perception that the conservative party is pro-american. this is a funny way of going about forming a better union. i would love if what you just suggested were to happen, because that's what we do need. that's what we have within the united states is no tariffs between states. that would be wonderful. but i think we're a long way from that today. >> and so with all of this in mind, how do you invest? >> well, you try to look for things that are going to do well in the long run that are currently out of favor. and we would put a couple of things in that category. health care people were very afraid of what

secretary kennedy was going to do to health care. the demand for health care is going to be strong. and so far, that doesn't seem to be an emphasis of the trump administration. and so some of the health care names like j&j and labcorp and bio-rad are are very attractive. and then housing. we are we have a lot of pent up demand for housing. interest rates are still higher than they probably should be, and they're above their historic averages. when we get more normal mortgage rates, we think there's a lot of demand for housing. we love mohawk in that space. so those are names that are out of favor trading at low prices. but this is a dangerous time. i don't want to bury that lead. trade wars would be tough on the whole market. >> and i just quickly because you talk about sort of, you know, low valuations and things like that i mean energy just keeps getting whacked obviously. we see oil prices under more pressure this week. do you stick with that or at some point is it just, you know, is it just move to the sidelines. >> yeah. >> very hard. obviously i've talked about apache apa on your

show many times, and the stock now is down to about five times earnings. people are very pessimistic. the price of oil is dropping today. so i think it's a it is a cyclical business. the stocks are cyclical. this would not be in my opinion, a good time to sell these energy names. but i have to acknowledge this is a sector that has not worked over the last couple of years. >> and look at crude at $66 a barrel. again, maybe good for consumers right now, but with a lot of implications for the energy space and america's opportunities there. charlie, thanks for now. we always appreciate it. >> thanks, kelly. >> charlie bobrinskoy with ariel. coming up, the s&p is underperforming the rest of the world by ten percentage points so far this year. we'll unwrap what deutsche calls one of the most historic paradigm shifts taking place right now in germany. plus, congressman gottheimer of new jersey will join us. we'll get his thoughts on the president's address to congress last night, and the latest on his efforts to ban china's deep sea from government devices. stocks are trying to snap a two day losing streak where the dow dropped 1300 points. it's up half a percent right now and it's back in

positive territory for the year. how about that? much more coming up right after this. uwatching my mom struggle with >> this is the exchange on cnbc. recurring utis held us both back. then she found uqora. uqora offers uti relief and science-backed supplements for proactive urinary health. life's too short to be put on hold by utis. join us at uqora.com it's a smart move to get a second opinion. you do it when you're looking for a contractor. you definitely do it with medical advice. so why not with your stock market investments? we can help you see opportunities you may be missing.

at hennion & walsh it only takes a second to schedule your free second opinion. so what's there to lose? speak to hennion & walsh. the second opinion people. resilient? what the data could signal for the fed. employment numbers and analysis. squawk box friday 8:30 a.m. eastern. cnbc. >> april 8th. join the cnbc changemakers. summit featuring powerful. >> women transforming. >> and redefining. >> leadership in the world of business. request an invite at watch golf from the best seat in the house with xfinity. from the tee to the green, catch every pivotal moment of the players championship in crystal clear enhanced 4k. find tee times, tour your favorite holes and see live leaderboards and scorecards. and with xfinity multiview, never miss a moment.

watch up to 4 live events at once. brought to you by comcast business, proud partner of the players. just say “the players championship” into your xfinity voice remote. katari to buy and measure tv ads. >> welcome back. emerging markets are finally showing some razzle dazzle after a long stretch of underperformance. as investors flock to countries that have lower export exposure to the us. seema mody has a

closer look. hi, seema. >> hey, kelly. the latest headlines prompting investors to rethink their emerging market exposure. capital economics emerging markets strategist william jackson. he finds that the countries least dependent on us really falls into two camps. there's parts of eastern europe, and then the energy producers in the middle east. on the flip side, kelly, mexico is the most dependent on exports to the us, accounting for about 20% of its gdp. vietnam is in a similar position. jackson also points to thailand, malaysia, south korea that generate roughly 5 to 6% of their total gdp from exporting to the us. but one market that continues to be a head scratcher is india prime minister modi. we talked about this last month offering trade concessions during his trip to the white house when he met with president trump in hopes of getting exempt from the reciprocal tariffs that are set to go into effect on april 2nd. that uncertainty, according to rahul sharma, is weighing on indian stocks. he also adds that china, even with

its big run up this year, is trading at a more attractive valuation than india. worth noting chinese tech stocks big rally today after beijing maintained its growth target of 5%. that's despite these lingering trade tensions. >> kelly and seema. we have german bond yields. is it 30 basis points today? what can you tell us about their historic stimulus plan? >> this is very significant because you have the presumed leader of germany who is unveiling this massive stimulus plan. this is significant because this reflects a departure from how germany has handled past budget talks, which this country tends to lean a bit more conservative. so the fact that they're asking to spend more on defense and telling the european union that they should raise that spending cap, that meeting is expected to take place on thursday. that suggests that this country is changing the way they're thinking about their budget, expanding it, and again, spending more on defense, taking more of their spending on their own account. and in addition to this, launching what they hope will be a ■k7500 billn

infrastructure plan. >> wild, huge market reaction, big implications. perfect day for my next guest to be here. seema. thanks. european etfs are hitting fresh highs against this backdrop with vanguard's vg, k, the ishares ivv all hitting new records. and my next guest is pounding the table. that's my phrase for a rotation into europe. gareth macartney is global co-head of equity capital markets at ubs. and again, i really appreciate you being here. >> sure. >> very nice to. >> meet you. could i put it that way? i mean, do you feel that strongly about the opportunities for european stocks still? >> look, i think over the last few years we've had a compounding us exceptionalism play. market's been strong. dollar has been strong. so investors really haven't had any reason to look elsewhere. we've had a ongoing value case in europe which has been compelling but lacked a catalyst. interestingly, today that could be an interesting catalyst for global investors to look at least at their underweight in europe and see a multiyear play. >> you know, if you had said this six months ago, i would have rolled my eyes and said, you know, look at what's happened over the past few. so

the market loves to make the most number of people look stupid as it can at any one time. and so this was a very under owned to your point, some of the emerging markets as well. what do investors do now? i mean, we've already missed what 2,030% run from the bottoms. but how much longer could this keep going? >> well, look, i think when you go back to fundamentals and first principles, there is a genuine value case that gives you a lot of upside, both in terms of duration and also in terms of absolute price movements. for investors, there's some themes globally. so the ai theme has been significant. and i think the general us growth has been a clear play today potentially brings i think infrastructure plays across europe. and also the defense theme, which has been ongoing, probably more legs as well. but i think it's a more broad based rotation out of tech and growth into the broader market. investors have been looking to do that at some point, and i think this will catalyze people at least looking at those opportunities. there'll be a tactical adjustment today which is more trading orientated

covering shorts. then we'll have a period of reflection and then a more strategic asset allocation. i think we'll need further news to support. >> this still. and this kind of gets into your line of work. but in mario draghi talked a lot about this. you know, where are the startups. where is in germany in particular. they've kind of missed the tech revolution there. so where is the new capital formation coming from and the ecosystem that's going to support maybe that next 10 or 20 year period of, you know, of good stock market performance. >> so we did some analysis on the venture capital community. and if you look at the bigger vc funds, we found 30 to 40 companies across europe, which already have a valuation potential of a billion and upwards. so we see in the private space there are a lot of opportunities there, and they spread many different sectors, including technology. so i think there's definitely the companies there. i think what we need to see next is, will there be a transition mechanism that forces those companies or actually a stronger equity market that

supports them transitioning from private funding into the more traditional ipo route and therefore public companies? >> meanwhile, here in the us, we have a healthy startup ecosystem and all of that, but we don't have a lot of ipos. i think we filed this week and that's headquartered here in new jersey. but what do you make of that? when should we expect to see more listings? when should we expect to see bigger deals happening? >> i go back to your point on consensus. the consensus was we've literally had a three year period where we've been way below trend in terms of volumes after the peak we saw in 2021. so the market is ready. so public investors have capital and are looking to deploy it. 2024 was the definitive reopening globally of the ipo market. we have big deals in each of the regions apac here in the us and in europe. but what we haven't seen is a return to normalized volume and an ongoing functioning market. we're still running at 15 to 20% below those volumes. consensus expectation was this was the year, you know, we had a us election out the way

we've seen us. rates peak. there were two key criteria. and then as a capital markets person, you look at vol at lows, equity markets at highs. and we've got a strong pipeline. >> and you're like these. >> are. >> perfect conditions. >> there are 25 is the year. and then here we are sitting already coming towards you know middle to end of q1. we haven't seen the issuance we expected because of the geopolitical volatility that we've seen. >> interesting. >> at the risk of being the boy who cried wolf, our expectation is you're seeing signs of this happening. but we would see that around the easter timeframe. so april, everything else equal would be the time that we start to see these companies come. we're not going back to 21 volumes, but i think we should see a normalized, functioning ipo market where there's value on offer for investors to attract them. but equally, private equity groups and entrepreneurs see the public markets as open and functioning, and therefore they have the confidence to proceed with that. >> so it goes back to our first discussion. it's kind of the uncertainty. you said

geopolitical, but i'm sure that would include tariffs and otherwise. >> the tactical trades that we manage within equity capital markets. so mainly overnight block trades. you know europe for example this year is running almost at 20 year highs in that product because i think investors see high valuations. they see a lot of investor liquidity. and they're using the opportunity to monetize stock because you need a 24 hour window to execute that transaction. ipos are strategic. they need a window of three four weeks of market risk. so i think our advice to our clients is be ready, be prepared. and then as soon as we have that window, we can then accelerate the execution. but to your point, we've had an unusual period in the first six, eight weeks where we've had a high velocity of news flow, a lot of volatility. and therefore, if you're looking to make a very strategic decision to launch your ipo, be live into this risk for 3 or 4 weeks. it's not clear cut. you would do that. >> it's good for our business. it's bad for yours. basically all of the news. i can't imagine trying to pick that 3 to 4 week

window. it's like a rocket launch. gareth, thanks very much for explaining it to us. good to see you today. gareth macartney of ubs. coming up, one more look at your mystery chart. the surprising name the bank of america says could be collateral damage. wait for this. from dodge cuts to the dmv, the shares are down more than 30% to start the year. send in your guesses. i'd love to know if you guesses. i'd love to know if you can figure it out. (♪♪) (♪♪) what took you so long? i'm sorry, there was a long line at the thai place. you get the sauce i like? of course! you're the man! i wish. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. call coventry

direct to learn more. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. our friend sold their policy to help pay their medical bills, and that got me thinking. maybe selling our policy could help with our retirement. i'm skeptical, so i did some research and called coventry direct. they explained life insurance is a valuable asset that can be sold. we learned we could sell all of our policy, or keep part of it with no future payments. who knew? we sold our policy. now we can relax and enjoy our retirement as we had planned. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance.

more, all backed by our 100% guarantee. right now you'll get 12. omaha steaks burgers free with your order. visit omaha steaks.com. today. >> is this your dream of retirement? how about this sweet deal? i like fishing, or is this a little more your style? retiring wealth isn't a guarantee. it's a goal. it's easy when markets are going up. but what about when they're not? that's why you need this call. >> for fishers retirement survival kit, featuring your guide to surviving market volatility. our stock market outlook plus the fisher investments difference three indispensable guides yours free for calling 1-800-213-5317. >> fisher investments disciplined approach will help see you through the market's ups and downs, and give you the confidence you need to reach a comfortable retirement. and our fees are structured so we do better when our clients do better. call now for your free retirement survival. >> kit 1-800-213-5317.

>> see if your dream retirement is on track. >> if your portfolio is $1 million or more. >> call fisher today. >> call 1-800-213-5317. >> welcome back. a blow to the efforts by president trump and doge to cut government spending, including to many foreign programs. you heard the president call out by name last night. the supreme court now rejecting the white house's attempt to freeze $2 billion in foreign aid. let's bring in eamon javers with the details. eamon. >> hey there kelly. the supreme court this morning rejected an emergency application filed by the justice department after a lower. court judge issued rulings. demanding that the government. unfreeze about $2 billion in usaid funds that president trump had put on hold with an executive order. that means the usaid money may. begin to flow again, at least that tranche of it. once the lower court spells out what specific obligations the government has to fulfill here. so represents a so far rare check on trump's executive authority by an

overwhelmingly conservative supreme court. and it means that at least some contractors who have invoices in with. usaid may. >> get paid. >> for their work. now, four conservative justices did dissent from the denial of the application, though, and justice samuel alito writing that the lower court judge did not have, quote, unchecked power to compel the government to pay out 2 billion in taxpayer dollars. so, kelly, just one data point. but it's worth noting, because a lot of this stuff, in terms of doge and cutting federal spending is going to end up at the supreme court because of all the lawsuits we've seen filed around it. supreme court showing here they're willing to check the trump trump executive authority, at least in this case. >> there was a great piece, i think, in the journal over the weekend, eamon, that said, the administration expected lawsuits that there actually haven't been as many as they thought there would be, that they have prevailed in more of them than they thought they might. and so i wonder how this decision today might affect that sense. >> yeah. >> i mean. >> when you do something this

big with the federal government, you're going to get lawsuits. it's just. >> you know, nature. >> of the thing. you know, it's like activist shareholder lawsuits and publicly traded companies. you're just going to get them. and then some of them are going to get up to the supreme court, especially when you're doing this much change this quickly. again, it's one data point, kelly. so i wouldn't read too much into it, but it does seem to suggest that the supreme court is not sort of just, you know. >> in a blanket. >> way, all in for trump on this. they're willing to look at the arguments. >> all right eamon thanks very much. eamon javers in washington today. now in terms of where the doge cuts are already having an impact. my next guest is starting to see them affecting the d.c. metro area in restaurants. joining me to discuss is sara, senator and analyst at bfa securities. sara, it's great to have you. and people want on some level say, well, that makes sense. but it's surprising where exactly you're seeing this showing up. explain. >> yeah. well, thank. >> you for having me. i think what maybe is surprising. >> is that. >> it's about the kind of foot traffic that we might be seeing in the d.c. area. so that's the

maybe knock on effect of these kinds of layoffs is that the local businesses feel the impact. and when we look at the data, we are starting to see a little bit in those types of restaurants that do really depend on work related, you know, work related activity, places where you would go to pick up coffee or breakfast in the morning, or places where you might get lunch. you know, on, on, on your lunch break, less so the places that are kind of destinations where you might go out and have dinner. >> sweetgreen and cava, some of our high flying, fast casual names. interestingly enough, until lately, both of them have had kind of a tough earnings season. and both of them, you say, have high exposure to dc. who else? >> those are the those are the two biggest. you know in the restaurants that we looked at, you know, the fast casuals, the other ones that we looked at were chipotle and shake shack. they're about kind of 4%, three, 4% of their store base. most of the national chains are going to be pretty evenly spread out. i

would say though, the fast casuals in general will tend to have a little bit more exposure because they do tend to be closer to, you know, higher earning urban areas. and we're only just now starting to see some of them branch out into the more the middle of the country or into smaller markets. >> did i imagine this or did you say there was a dmv aspect to all of this? >> we were referring to d.c, maryland, virginia. that's the. so the dmv area was where we were seeing, you know, the most unemployment claims. there were the skyrocketing of the unemployment claims, understood. >> so that it's really not just the d.c. metro area, it's the broader region. >> yeah. so we're, you know, the data are limited. and the point we made in part of the report was that, look, these layoffs are happening across the board, and 80% of the federal workforce does not work in virginia, maryland or washington, d.c. that being said, i think it's safe to assume that most of the d.c. area jobs are going to be the kinds of office jobs where

you would be dependent on them, and where you probably are seeing more work from home now. so there are two points to this. one is, you know, to the extent that it's more administrative jobs that are that are being cut. and we don't know that yet. certainly we've seen, you know, park rangers and that kind of thing also. but to the extent that's the case, those are sort of the jobs where, you know, you might see those in the d.c. area. and then again, to the extent that we're looking at restaurants, that might depend on, you know, white collar workforce for lunch or breakfast, you know, traffic, that's what we might see an impact on. >> and as you note, in fast casual chipotle, shake shack actually have a little bit less exposure. so if people can put on the pair trade if they want there and return to office could still help to blunt this somewhat in the weeks and months to come. we'll see. sara. thanks. appreciate it. today. sara with b of a some breaking news on tariffs megan costello with the latest. megan what's going on. kelly some big news from the white house right now.

white house press secretary caroline leavitt is briefing reporters. and she just made the announcement that the white house will be giving. >> auto makers any cars in north america. >> a one month delay on the tariffs that they had just announced this week on canada and mexico, she said. we are going to give a one month exemption. >> on any. >> autos coming through usmca. that's that north american free trade agreement. to my knowledge, that is all autos that are made in. >> north america. >> and being shipped among the three countries now will not have to pay tariffs as equipment, cars or car parts are crossing the border. they say it's just a one month delay, but that any tariffs, reciprocal tariffs will still go into effect on april 2nd. kelly. so still a lot of moving pieces here. this was hinted at earlier by. >> commerce. >> secretary howard lutnick that the auto sector could see some relief. caroline leavitt also confirmed, as we heard before, that trump did speak yesterday with the big three automakers gm, ford and stellantis that preceded this decision. we now know they will at least get relief for one month. we will have to wait and see on april

2nd whether we see auto specific tariffs or whether they simply get caught up in these reciprocal tariffs. so more to come on that front kelly. yeah. no further lift to the stocks which have already been pricing in what looks like a reprieve. for how long exactly. we'll find out megan thanks very much megan costello. and coming up, big tech is struggling to start the year with meta, the only mag seven name in the green since january. amid all the hype around ai and capex spending and new under the radar competitor has one of the most impressive ai voice assistants to date. you'll get a demo and we'll tell you how it's reshaping the field you how it's reshaping the field next. it all started with a small business idea. it's a pillow with a speaker in it! that's right craig. pulling in the perfect team to get the job done. i'm just here for the internets. at&t, it's super-fast! you locked us out?! and when thrown a curveball... arrggghh! ahhhh! [crashing sounds] we had everything we needed. is the internet out? don't worry, we have at&t internet back-up. the next level network for small business.

♪♪ i sold a pillow! instead of using quicken. quicken pulls all your financial quicken pulls all your financial info together in ♪(voya)♪ there are some things that work better together. like your workplace benefits and retirement savings. voya provides tools that help you make the right investment and benefit choices. so you can reach today's financial goals and look forward to a more confident future. voya, well planned, well invested, well protected. one chef for every ten. >> guests. >> every meal prepared to order and every plate a personal discovery. welcome to the world of oceania. cruises. the world's greatest cities and off the beaten path secrets. one

memorable bite and toast at a time. it's more than a on tv atr

ads.com. >> cnbc spotlight delivers the best videos of the day right to your inbox. top stories. key highlights hand-selected daily by cnbc experts. sign up now for free! go to cnbc spotlight. >> welcome back to the exchange. >> i'm kate. >> rooney with. >> your cnbc. news update. >> the department of veteran affairs is planning. >> to cut. >> 80,000 employees. that's according. >> to. >> an internal. memo obtained by nbc news. >> top officials. >> at that agency are being. told to cut enough. workers to return to 2019 staffing levels. the biden administration added. tens of thousands of. positions to help handle the 2022 pact act, which expanded care for veterans exposed to toxic chemicals. meanwhile, the trump administration has stopped military deportation flights to

guantanamo bay and other countries because of the price tag, according to the wall street journal. some flights carried a dozen passengers to cuba for. >> at least. >> $20,000 per migrant, while three flights to india cost $3 million each. and in florida, a man is under arrest after he allegedly swallowed stolen jewelry valued at nearly $770,000 last week. orlando police say the man took that drastic step as he was being arrested, and an x ray of his torso appears to show a foreign object in his stomach. police declined to comment on whether they recovered the earrings. guys, back over to you. >> gross. okay. thanks very much, kate rooney. elon musk saying this morning that ai productivity gains will transform everything about our economy and the next key battleground for ai voice? it's the most natural and efficient way of using it. and there's a new player making a big splash. deirdre bosa has more in today's tech check. deirdre. so that new

player sesame was all but unknown just a week ago, and it's already has an active fan base, including myself. i've been playing around with it. here's a snippet of my conversation with miles, the chatbot, this morning. >> what do you think is the hardest question that i could ask you? >> ooh tough one. it depends. miles, are. we aiming. for philosophical, personal? or maybe a. >> good. >> old fashioned? you're miles. >> my bad brain fart. sometimes these circuits misfire. so what's the hardest question you think you could ask me, then? >> yeah, you tell me. i'm asking you. >> all right, all right. you got me there. >> now you can see it's not perfect, but i chose that portion of the chat because it showed that i could easily interrupt it without it missing a beat. it also seemed almost embarrassed for the mistake it made calling me miles. and that's really key, because the next frontier in ai is voice, but it's voice with a dose of eq

or emotional intelligence. now, the strength of openai's latest model, gpt 4.5. it's its grasp of context and empathy that outshines other models which are designed to pass math and coding benchmarks. likewise, amazon's revamped voice assistant alexa plus it's billed as its most conversational assistant yet that can even detect tone or mood and answer accordingly. neither of them, though, are as natural as that sesame chatbot. despite hundreds of millions or billions of dollars they cost to develop, according to pitchbook, sesame has raised just $10 million, and it's based on meta's open source llama architecture. in that sense, it's reminiscent of deep sea breakthrough in model building that came out of nowhere to jump to the front of the race. sesame may have just done that in voice ai, and at least to me, kelly feels the closest thing we have to, you know, that version that we saw in her, the movie from the early tens, where there's a chatbot that you can just talk to for a long time? notebook was kind of close to this experience, but a different

product. i'll definitely sample it, see if it'll help me with cooking tonight. and i take your point about the cost and the effectiveness in using llama to do this. it's very, very significant. deirdre, for now. thanks, deirdre. bosa. speaking of deep sea coming up, democratic congressman and gubernatorial candidate josh gottheimer who estimates trump tariff plan will cost american families an extra $2,000 a year. he joins us from capitol hill to discuss that and his bill to ban deep sea on government devices. that's next. >> techcheck is sponsored by >> techcheck is sponsored by comcast at ameriprise financial we know our clients are so much more than clients. they're go-getters and game-changers, legacy-leavers and visionaries, healers and confidants. the goals that matter most to you matter most to us. helping you achieve them is what we do best. with personal financial advice from an advisor you can trust, and goal-based investing and solutions. it's no wonder we have a 4.9 out of five client satisfaction rating.

ameriprise financial advice worth talking about. one best run college in america by the princeton review. employers value hpa's real world preparation. students love unprecedented access to global leaders on high points, inspiring campus. and parents appreciate hpa's god, family, and country values. choose to be extraordinary at high point university. >> the number of public companies is shrinking while the number of private companies is increasing. at franklin templeton, we're expanding access to the growing opportunity in private markets, offering the potential for greater diversification and enhanced returns through our world class specialist investment managers. we are empowering advisors with solutions to build the

portfolios of the future. today, portfolios of the future. today, alternatives by franklin (♪♪) something amazing is happening here. teams have more power to withstand outages. that's because cdw solutions architects are building more resilient it and electrical infrastructures with schneider electric. with eco care remote monitoring services, and 24/7 support, your organization has the power to do more than keep the lights on. make amazing happen schneider electric and cdw. biotherapeutics ticker d on the nyse american, a clinical stage company pioneering a transformative approach to treating cancer. khalid's proprietary platform harnesses the body's own immune system to target and kill cancerous tumors without harming healthy cells.

khalid is now in two phase one khalid is now in two phase one clinical trials in your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. our advanced matching helps find talented candidates, so you can connect with them fast. visit indeed.com/hire and doing my own reporting to share insights, information, and all of the details that you need to be able to make money. >> we empower. >> those who. >> act. >> those who. >> see the correlation. >> between predictability and

probability, those who manage. risk by anticipating each movement, flawless execution. timing and accuracy. identify the goal. match power with precision. reach new heights. cme group where. risk meets opportunity. >> hey what's. >> up guys. it's chris. >> pratt here. i know. >> you're in the middle of something, but i was wondering if you could just read a little bit of scripture together. >> real quick. >> from the book. >> of joshua. >> i command. >> you be. >> strong and steadfast. >> do not. fear nor be dismayed, for the lord. >> your god is with you wherever you go. join me in diving deeper into the bible and praying every day on halloween. you got to check it out. >> 48% of americans don't. >> get enough magnesium. >> which is vital for bone, nerve, and muscle health. >> i recommend. >> qanon magnesium glycinate.

it's formulated for high absorption. absorption. >> ♪(voya)♪ there are some things that work better together. like your workplace benefits and retirement savings. voya helps you choose the right amounts without over or under investing. so you can feel confident in your financial choices voya, well planned, well invested, well protected. champion eyeing his next signature moment. >> what a finish.

to three vetted fiduciary financial advisors@smartasset.com. >> president trump, emphasizing his make america first agenda in last night's congressional address, vowing to cut taxes, eliminate wasteful government spending, retaliate against countries, he says. take advantage of the u.s. with reciprocal tariffs. my next guest warns these measures will hurt families, not make our country stronger. joining me now is democratic congressman and gubernatorial candidate from new jersey, josh gottheimer. it's great to see you. it's almost

like i don't even want to get into the like. it's great. he's the best. he's the worst. he's what? how about this one month delay on auto tariffs? congressman what do you think. welcome. >> i think. >> it's good to. >> see you. i mean. >> listen, i'm mostly. worried about. >> what i didn't. hear last night. >> which. >> is what are we going to do to. >> make life more affordable for. >> people to get. >> taxes down, to restore salt. and then, of course. >> the. >> tariff policy, which we know is a $2,000 tax increase on. >> families with. >> canada and mexico, this. >> 25% across. >> the. >> board tariff. >> and obviously. >> the. >> china tariff, like what the impact. >> is going to be. and he. >> sort of. >> admitted last. >> night. >> the president, that. >> people are going to feel. >> some pain. >> and so. >> i'm you know. >> to me it's all about how we make life more affordable. >> we didn't there. >> wasn't a lot of time spent on that. and i was surprised. >> yeah. well look, there are some saying today, look at the massive spending by germany which could help the us. look at the massive stimulus spending by china and our bond yields. so on that basis, he's been able to

achieve some things that we might have not expected to be done around the world, just say 6 or 8 weeks ago. >> right. >> but but look. >> at and obviously the market reacted to this. but look at the policies he's setting forth in the pain that's coming. if you actually do put a if you had this across the board tariff with two of our key trading partners in the north and the south, and we know from autos to food what the impact of that will be on, on real folks who are just going to the grocery store and dealing with higher, higher food prices to begin with on eggs and other products. you know, what this could mean is just higher prices and higher costs for people. and it it really is a tax increase on people at a time when we need to be cutting taxes and making life more affordable. and i was surprised he didn't talk about salt either. you know, he threw in a few items on taxes, but didn't talk about restoring the local tax deduction, which he had been talking about. and i think that's critically important in any tax package that's coming down the road. >> that's very interesting. and yeah, it was a warning sign

during the biden administration when consumer confidence really plunged. and it's not looking that great right now. so that's going to have to turn around if they want to kind of build a coalition, get through the midterms. i mean, what passed this massive tax bill that's got a lot in it. >> so we. >> and right now as you know, they're they're going it alone. there's many of us be willing to sit down. and i've reached out to try to figure out where the places we could agree on a tax bill, where we can actually get taxes down for folks in jersey, make make their lives more, make their lives more affordable. whether you're talking about child care, tax credit, or you're talking about salt or other provisions, r&d, that would help. obviously, a lot of businesses in jersey grow and hire people. so those are the kind of things that that i'm focused on. and also last night, you know, he he went after a lot of this is what part of the problem with with his been a pro his chaotic across the board approach in general is you got to make sure these unintended consequences of not hurting key places like the faa at a time where we've had a lot of

incidents or what they're going to do on social security, which is scaring a lot of seniors that i'm hearing about, right. this uncertainty, what information is he collecting on them? those are the kinds of things that i think are really are really effective. and then, of course, you saw with with the va, i think they announced today there's going to be 8000 jobs cut, i'm sorry, 80,000 jobs cut from the va. that's a significant number, especially processing these claims of sick veterans who were exposed to toxic chemicals. so, you know, those are the kind of things that i'm getting a lot of calls in, by the way, bipartisan calls, democrats and republicans calling and saying, wait a second, what's going on here? it's one thing to make government more efficient, which i believe in deeply smarter and more efficient government. it's another just to go across the board and affect things like the cia and national security, which is obviously a big focus of mine. >> you did a lot as a congressman. and, you know, if you're governor on on the efficiency front. so there's some meeting of the minds there. just a few seconds left. congressman, you worked at microsoft. you're one of the tech savviest, probably members of congress. and you've led the charge to ban tiktok. now you're

leading the charge to get deep tech off of government devices. >> yeah. and by the way, people should know it's the number one downloaded app, right? that that the government of china has made it pretty clear that they have put they've put code in to be able to grab people's information. so whenever you're searching for it, people have to be very careful. i'm obviously concerned from a government perspective, and i've written to all the governors asking them to ban it from their devices. this is the chinese communist party that wants to steal our ip and our information, and get into our national security and influence americans. you've got to be very careful here with deep sea and what they're doing. >> yeah. no. and i appreciate you kind of coming on to talk about it. we hope to elaborate more in a future time. congressman josh gottheimer, thanks for the time today. appreciate it. great to see you. you too. and that's it for the exchange. i'll join brian sullivan for power lunch right sullivan for power lunch right on the other side of this only the servicenow platform connects every corner of your business, putting ai to work for people. - hr? - yeah. - it? - yeah. - r&d? - yup. omg? uh... oh, i see. uh... yeah. that's the department i work in. alright, enough of that.

a beast. >> lurks between the numbers. some watch from the safety of the sidelines, but others saddle up and ride that one ton rowdy ribeye for all he's got. if that's you, join us on that's you, join us on tastytrade. named best (♪♪) car, this isn't the way home. that's right james, it isn't. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses

and more in prospectus at invesco.com your shipping manager left to "find themself." leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. sponsored jobs on indeed are two and a half times faster to first hire. visit indeed.com/hire (♪♪) discover alaska aboard riviera, the only true foodie ship sailing the region. where breathtaking natural wonders meet unmatched service from the heart. with one chef for every ten guests, indulge in gourmet dining on an ultra-premium small ship. scenic days, endless memories. call now for amazing savings. book now at oceaniacruises.com for your. >> gut probably. >> isn't getting where it needs to go. seeds dscr1 daily

synbiotic is the 2 in 1 prebiotic and probiotic engineered to survive, bringing live bacteria all the way down to the colon for a healthy digestive skin, heart, and immune system. get started today with seeds. dscr1 daily synbiotic. visit mike pompeo to order now. >> welcome to power. lunch as stocks take a turn. >> based on. >> another potential. >> turn in tariffs. >> we're going to tell you who said. >> what. >> and why it matters. plus, as. oil and. >> bond yields fall will. >> it force the fed's hand. we'll have breaking. news from the fed. >> and why one biotech. >> analyst kelly, says. >> we may not. >> need. >> most biotech. >> i don't know if he would go that far, but we'll see. the major averages have turned around on that. news that auto tariffs on canada and mexico will be delayed by a month. that's got the dow, the s&p up nearly 1% a little bit more than that for the nasdaq.