congress and the court. it's amazing what people might have thought about with the division of powers. thank you founders. they were pretty smart guys. >> and look at the markets, by the way, saying thank you for the delay in auto tariffs. dow's up 507. thank you for watching power lunch. >> closing bell starts right now. >> all right guys thanks so much. welcome to closing bell i'm scott wapner live from post nine here at the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with a nice bounce for stocks clearly being driven still by tariff headlines. it's made for more volatility yet again today. let's show you the scorecard here with 60 to go in regulation. the major averages started moving a little bit higher midday on a headline that president trump spoke to canada's prime minister trudeau today that raise hopes of some sort of compromise, perhaps in this trade dispute. another report suggesting tariffs on autos might be pushed, which sent shares of general motors and ford higher. and there's your look there. and that is where they remain. we have seen

some buying as well today in the banks, some tech and even in the momentum names. i like palantir. those names have been unsettled lately for sure. so maybe some stabilizing activity today. it does take us to our talk of the tape where stocks are likely to go from here. let's bring in our experts. adam parker. he's the founder and ceo of trivariate research. tom lee is the managing partner and head of research for fundstrat. both are cnbc contributors. we're lucky to have you both together today. welcome, guys. all right, adam, just give me your assessment as you watch what is a increasingly headline driven market. >> yeah. >> i mean, look, as you. >> know, we. >> we think it's going to be choppy. i'm still. >> optimistic that. >> on the other side of this we could get back toward. >> you know, revenue growth and. >> you know. >> beneficiaries on the ai. >> front with. >> productivity and margins. so the. >> call we've had is choppy. >> here in the first few months. then once the management teams understand what the policy backdrop is, they can, you know, deploy productively capital. >> so i choppy.

>> first half and then we probably. get a resumption. >> of pretty good growth. >> tom, you've tried to remain pretty optimistic through all of this. are you still. >> yeah i am optimistic. >> i mean. >> i can understand. >> why investors are sitting. >> on their hands. >> i mean. >> they don't really know how. >> severe these. >> tariffs are going to be. >> how long. >> they are. >> but now we're seeing a big price correction a decline. >> in sentiment. >> and then something. >> like today. >> we got a bad. >> adp jobs report. >> and the. >> stock is at the market's actually up. so we're actually rising on bad news which is a good sign that a lot of bad news is priced in. >> but do you agree with adam that the first half of the year is likely to be a little more choppy and that you can get through some of these issues here regarding trade? and then you look down the road to tax policy and think that, okay, well, that's going to usher in a better back half of the year. >> i mean, in fact. >> what's just happened in. >> the last six tax policy. excuse me. >> yeah. i mean, what happened in the last six weeks is essentially a bear. >> market that has.

>> swept through sentiment. and positioning. right. because if you look at hedge fund positioning, it's gone almost. >> neutral. >> and a huge correction in momentum. >> so i think it's very. >> possible that march. april may. >> could actually be like one of these huge rally months where we're rallying ten, 15%. >> even in march. i mean, as we're sitting here, you know, we're going to be driven obviously, by more, more tariff headlines. we do have to consider the fact that earnings could take a hit. do we need to reassess that? >> i mean, look. >> i think if stagflation. >> were a. stock it's up off the low. that's why the market has been choppy. people are worried about, you know, a slowing economy. walmart consumer. confidence retail sales looking a little light. at the. >> same. >> time they're worried about, you know, higher prices. i don't think that's ultimately what's. >> going to happen. >> you'd be short that stock. i would. >> be i just don't know i think tom. >> is short it today and. >> i. maybe would. >> say. >> yeah, maybe we'd be short it in a couple of months. but i think we're, you know, in. the

same mindset that we'll. >> get on the other. >> side of this at some point, probably. >> in the. >> second quarter. i just think. >> it's. hard to get through it until we really understand. if you're the ceo of a company that's a big company and you've got facilities and customers. and canada and mexico and. >> china, etc. >> i just think you're a little bit you know, i. >> like. >> his phrase, you know, sit on your hands a little to understand a little bit more about how to most effectively deploy capital. i think that usually takes probably through april earnings and guidance. and then and then i'd probably kind of be more optimistic that we have a certain path. so we're in the close enough. >> for. >> you know, government work if that's if that's the thing. >> but. >> well, you might be losing. >> exactly. we might get dodged. we might get dodged. i'll take i'll take q2. i'll take q2. >> i mean, it's one thing for ceos to be a little skittish, be a little more cautious. that's what they get paid to do. investors often have to place their bets before something takes place. is this a buy, this unsettled market that we've witnessed recently? >> i mean, yes.

>> in my. >> mind, we. put out a piece yesterday just talking about the ten best days that happen every year. last year, for instance, the ten best days. >> added up to. >> 21 percentage points of the s&p. ex those ten days, the market was only up 4%. so you know, you don't get 20% years because it's good through the year. it's just the ten best days. i think the setup for a ten best day is near. because if the economy near stall speed, i think people realize the trump put does come back because otherwise it has to unwind all this austerity. and if the job market's off, the fed put comes back into play because the fed doesn't want to play with stall speed. and i think that's what is going to be the positive catalyst in the next couple of weeks. and on top of that, we already know stocks will bottom before bad news peaks. and so if we're seeing the market not fade on bad news, that means we're already priced in a lot of things that would scare us. >> well, we'll see what happens with the jobs report. what about positioning? i think you guys can be helpful to our viewers on

where you think the best opportunities are after you've given your sort of macro, given your 30,000 foot view, let's go down. let's try and land this with ways to play the market the best we can. >> my biggest condition this year has been health care. and it's weird because it's been the best performing sector year to date, but it's not exactly what i thought would lead, you know. stuff like cvs as worked. so but. >> i'm looking at that sector as. >> the dreamiest. >> of dreamy for. i productivity. there's so many inefficiencies, long. term margin expansion. >> and then maybe even ultimately you know, better news down the line. >> on the drug front i. >> see estimates bottom. >> up estimates are up in every industry in health care tools, managed. >> care, hospitals, drugs, biotech. yet the stocks were really bad for the last two years. they've been up a little this year. >> but i think there could be runway there. and i like. >> owning that dream of margin expansion in healthcare. i just think people are way too negative about the administration's ability to wreck earnings.

>> so where where some would traditionally look at healthcare as a more defensive, i think it could be both playing. >> offense and defense. >> i like offense and defense. i think it could be both. i mean, i think there's some names that have a lot of upside. and i also think it could be defensive. and i love these businesses that have a lot of employees, a lot of revenue and low margins. and then what is i actually going to do? it's going to predict customer behavior, predict employee behavior, and help these companies expand margins. and so all these businesses like mckesson and quest and cardinal and cora, and i mean, go down the line that probably can grow their revenue over the next five years without doing a lot of net hiring. and then their margins go up. so i wouldn't be shocked if the next five years health care is the best performing sector over that period. and i like the fact that sentiment is, i don't think that on that side of the, you know, ledger right now. >> what about you, tom? >> well. >> year to. >> date, before. >> the. correction cyclicals.

>> were leading, you know, financials. >> and. >> healthcare and international. >> and since february. >> 19th. >> cyclicals have still been leading. health care has been leading and financials. so i think that financials and cyclicals have actually been pretty strong through this correction. healthcare has been a actually a good call because it's held up great. but to me i. >> think there. >> is too much fears. >> of. >> a growth scare because germany's rally i know it's understandable for valuation reasons, but really tells us that industrial stocks are okay and the ism is actually still above 50. so i do think you want to be cyclical once we're through this correction. >> i mean the beige book today wouldn't have you you know screaming growth scare. for more on that let's bring in our senior economics correspondent steve liesman. is that is that the correct read? steve, i know you can't look at the beige book and factor in tariffs because the beige book is already out and tariffs are just taking place. but you wouldn't look at what happened today in that read and say, oh, we've got a really

bad economy. >> no you wouldn't scott. but forgive me, my friend, for correcting you a little bit here on national television. but the beige book, which has all the anecdotes from around the 12th federal reserve district, did find that tariffs and the uncertainty over fiscal policy are having a profound effect on the current situation and the outlook. as you said, the beige book said overall economic activity. it rose slightly, a kind of tepid characterization with consumer spending lower on balance. but tariffs were said to have boosted uncertainty, with some reports that they already may be increasing prices again, as scott said, this is before the tariffs took effect, but it was already out there. some of one bank reported that some plan to put a put, planned investments on hold, increased cargo volumes and was keeping homebuyers out of the market. and according to one report, the new york fed, in its beige book report, said, quote, a manufacturing firm noted that either paying tariffs or

adjusting sourcing to avoid tariffs would lead to higher selling prices. either way, firms said it was difficult to pass along price increases because consumers are more price sensitive these days, but these businesses felt they would be forced to pass along tariff inflation to their consumers. so, scott, a lot of tariff talk. i think i counted something like 49 references. maybe some of them were duplicate, but 49 references in the beige book to tariffs. and really it's one of the interesting developments these days economically, which is that a policy that it's not been put in place for several months now, looks have been having an effect on the economy. >> i guess i guess my, my, my point would be not a really tangible effect on the economy itself. this the stuff that you quoted seems obvious, right? that you would we've heard from ceos the level of uncertainty they thinking about doing this versus that. they're not exactly

sure. maybe consumers are thinking about pulling back, spending a little bit because they're uncertain about the tariffs. but really nothing here would match up with the two words growth scare that the market's been driven by over the last few weeks. would you say. that's right. >> i you can correct me again if you want. >> that's good i. >> don't care i'm a little bit on the other side of that trade. look we came into the year. the economy did well in the fourth quarter okay. and then we had this decline in consumer spending in january that i'm hearing anecdotally might have continued into february. there's a weather issue there that has given me pause in saying, oh my god, the consumer is going to give it up here. but when i follow things like the uncertainty, the economic policy uncertainty index, and believe that that has an effect on the economy, when i see things like the university of michigan and

inflation. expectations going up and people volunteering, ordinary americans volunteering, those expectations have gone up because of tariffs. and then i see what the market's done, which is to have completely wiped out the optimism that accompanied president trump when he came into office. i say, yes, god, it's very possible that there's something resembling what could be a growth scare if it continues from the past several months. i'm still up reserving judgment, scott, because it had been a very long call of mine over several years of the biden administration, when everybody kept saying, there's going to be a recession. and i leaned against that recession, and it ended up being the right call. so i'm taking my time here. but the uncertainty and all the things going on in the profound changes this administration wants to put in place, for better or worse, are having this potential impact of

causing businesses to hold back on investments that could potentially have an economic impact. so yeah, there's something of a growth scare. one other one other thing, which is that when i look at what the fed fund futures are doing, they're forecasting a growth scare. they're saying the fed, regardless what's going to happen with inflation, is going to be forced to reduce. they're going to be facing reduced growth and it's going to be forced to cut. that's what i'm seeing there. so scott, i really want this economy to succeed. it's been a good call that it has succeeded and will succeed. but there's some questions right now. >> yeah. no no doubt. so stay with me. because the guys here sitting with me i think have some stuff for you. start with adam parker. >> i mean, a lot of the institutional clients for us were mentioning that kind of now cast the gdp from atlanta to look much. more two eight. right. so i think that might have been not emblematic, but there definitely was some chatter i was getting about that that related to the growth scare a couple days ago when things

were selling off. one of the things that we tracked, the three of us were together on election night, and we all commented how the market seemed to be very accurate in every election. and if you look at the polling market, there's a question out there for the probability in q1 or q2, there's a tariff that sustainably impacts a 5% or more. i think it says mexico, china and canada. i can't remember, but we checked yesterday, it was still less than 50%. so i think there's still some doubts that people have about the sustainability of this and how much it will impact. so i'm kind of with this notion that it impacts the management teams a little bit temporarily, but not likely. the actual ultimate economy and earnings trajectory. that's my take. yeah. yeah. i mean, just to add to adam's point. >> the uncertainty. >> i don't. >> think is causing. >> a. >> screeching halt to the economy. >> but i think. >> it is suppressing. >> demand and confidence. >> so that's. >> why we are. >> getting what looks like a. >> growth scare. >> but that that's why. >> i think the. >> trump. >> put in the fed put. >> actually come. >> back. >> into play. >> yeah. >> what do. >> you. >> think about.

>> that steve. what tom puts forth for the second time already in our program this idea of a fed put right. they they're not going to let the situation unravel. they don't. if two eight negative like atlanta has come to fruition hello fed. >> i think that's right scott. but i'm going to be i'm going to go for three for. >> three. >> three time's a charm here scott. >> man you know what they say steve. three strikes. you're out and it's you who's going to. >> be out. >> it's okay. >> that's okay. i can go play guitar for tens and tens and tens of dollars. but but here's the thing. what bothers me about tom's confidence and indeed the market's overall confidence in the fed right here is when do you see them doing this? when is the fed going to be confident that it has seen the tariff impact and that that has passing through the economy and not leading to wider inflation? i think the overall call you made there is correct, scott, that in the face of a negative print on gdp, really soft jobs numbers

that the fed will be cutting, the timing is what bothers me. and the fed's confidence that it's not seeing wider inflation is what bugs me. because if you i cannot imagine a month and maybe tom can correct me on this where you have a one percentage point increase, for example, or even a 0.5 percentage point increase in the cpi. and the fed is cutting that month in the face of an inflation rate that is already half a point above its target. i think it's going to be a very difficult thing for the fed to do, to say we're looking right through these tariffs, and we're only focusing on the employment side of the mandate. >> that that's the great conundrum, isn't it, tom? >> well. >> yes. >> there's a lot of alchemy in that process. >> right. so let's just think if it's a may the may window is the probability is only 28% right now. but let's say that's the may cut that we want to think about. the reason i think you could see this move forward is

one financial stability could. >> become a problem. >> if the market has a 10% drawdown. >> on top of. >> that, confidence indicators actually. >> tank. >> then the fed is. not really thinking about the imputed inflation of shelter. and, you know, goods prices filtering through, but rather the idea of staving off an employment situation that could unravel very quickly. i think we're 5600 to 6200 range bound here until we get on the other side of it. if i were answering questions, i would have said they'll get confidence after april. guidance and the stock. i like tom's comment about how the stocks react to that guidance if they don't go down. and i think the companies are giving you a window for how they see, you know, the second quarter and into the second half, that will probably be the signal that the fed probably lags the equity market. i think most people i talk to definitely believe in the trump. but back on this fed put that maybe is a little bit more of a controversy at the current moment. i'd say for people. >> i'll give you the. last word,

i'll let you go. >> and i'm not going to give. >> you a. >> fourth chance. i want to add one more thing, scott. one more thing, which is that if this tax bill gets through congress, if you have a situation where we're going to have measurable deregulation and the other stuff that business was excited about when it came to the trump administration and that restores business confidence, i will change my mind pretty quickly. that's growth. >> in the second half. that's growth in the second half for sure. right, steve? >> thanks, man. liesman keeping us honest up here. thank you. we'll talk. we'll see you soon. that's steve liesman, our senior economics correspondent. we didn't talk at all about tech, which i think you guys have differing views on. you still all in on the mega caps because because adam has been slowly reducing his exposure and just did it again slightly, but nonetheless he is underweight technology now. >> well technology. >> is our third. >> favorite sector this year within the s&p. so it's financials industrials technology. >> they haven't. >> been great. >> i do. >> think this derating. >> and you know. >> questions about whether ai.

>> has already priced in. good news is weighing on the. mag seven. but to us technology spending visibility is i think going to be quite high because. >> one, anytime. >> companies are looking for productivity. and let's even think about how tariffs add to uncertainty or inflation uncertainty or consumers. this is. companies that are going to be trying to find productivity through technology spend. so i think tech visibility is still going to be good. and it's going to track ism. but understandably, it's not like the last two years where mag seven was leading. >> but you'd be overweight the mega caps. >> yes. yeah i think they're still great businesses. and you know, the reality is we know that these stocks have periods where they're dormant like amazon has been rangebound for years. and then they make dramatic moves. so i think it'd be a mistake to actually think that the larger story arc of these mag seven is done. yeah. i don't think the larger story arc is over. i mean, i'm worried about i'm worried about talking about it because, you know, it's a michigan. and when remember we played notre dame. lou holtz used to say, you want to take

your helmet off when you score a touchdown, fine. but also take it off for every penalty, every missed block, every drop ball, whatever. and so the mac seven downgrade, whatever was a month ago was really because i didn't like the capex numbers and the implied capex to sales for a lot of these businesses, which to me means their gross margins are going lower. and, you know, there's no fund out there for, you know, decelerating revenue margin contraction stocks, right. i think the other challenge besides the high capex was the beta of the stocks is super high. so you get a down day, they go down even more than normal. and then the valuation is still discounting that they have these, you know, big moats and growth and margins forever. yet there was a bit of concern that something like deep sea could come and, and maybe create or disrupt some parts of some of those companies business models. you saw the market say meta's capex is awesome, google's is more defensive. so there's been a little bit more, you know, kind of underneath. so, you know, if the if the mag seven or plus or -30% of the market, they act like they're 44% with beta,

i'm just saying own 22, 20, 21, 23%, so that they'll act like they're the 30% that their weight is. i'm certainly not saying don't own any of them. i think there's some great businesses there and there's too much risk not to. but i need to understand the, you know, the capex to sales for these businesses because they're not low capital spending to sales businesses at 14.5%. >> you always you talk about your your clients, your you know, i know you have a lot of hedge funds as clients. you're speaking mostly to institutional investors. you're changing that or at least adding to your business. right. >> well, you. >> know, something called trivector, which is going to speak more directly to the faa. yeah. and individual investor. >> trying to be trying to be like, tom, thanks for the thanks for the effort. you know, we have a business called trivector that we sell to advisors and individual investors who want to care about u.s. equities. it's an inside publication comes out a few times a week. >> so same kind of stuff that you're giving to. >> the capitalizing on the database. different content more

you know etf and a lot less quantitative. and the stuff we do for institutions. but it's trivector. so love love love it folks. check it out, check it out and give me a hard time on x or, or linkedin or whatever they want to do. but yeah, we're excited about it. so thanks for that. >> all right. yeah. appreciate you guys very much navigating us through this. tom and adam. we'll see you soon. thank you. christina. parts of for the biggest names moving into the close. hi, christina. >> hi, scott. well, i shouldn't be smiling because there's disappointing guidance that sending shares of abercrombie and fitch lower down almost 11%. the retailer's 2025 guidance called for slowdowns in sales growth and weaker operating margins. why? well, higher freight costs played a role and discounting, so they had to get rid of inventory. shares, like i said, are down almost 11% and fallen more than 40% since its all time closing high just last june. >> novo nordisk. >> is bringing its blockbuster. >> weight loss. >> drug, wegovy, direct to consumers. through a new online pharmacy. patients can pay $499 in cash per month, well below its list price of over $1,300.

and that's why you're seeing shares up 3.5%. you know, weight loss drugs cheaper. >> all right. we'll come back to you a little bit. christina, thanks so much. we're just getting started here. up next, sycamore tree capital's marco carta is back with us breaking down. he's navigating the volatility in this market. he'll join me right here at post nine after the break. after the break. >> we're. -what've you got there, larry? -time machine. you gonna go back and see how the pyramids were built or something? nope. ellen and i want to go on vacation, so i'm going to go back to last week and buy a winning lottery ticket. -can i come? -only room for one. how am i getting home? sittin' on my lap like last time, ronald. fine, but i'm bringing this. [ whirring ] alright. or...you could try one of these savings options. the right money moves aren't as far-fetched as you think. there it is. see? told you it was going to all work out. thanks, future me.

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♪♪ with fastsigns, create factory grade visual solutions to perfect your process. ♪♪ fastsigns. make your statement™. >> all right, we're back. credit markets have remained mostly calm through the early stages of this trade war. it is one of the reasons why the stock market hasn't had a steeper correction. perhaps. so will that remain the case? let's welcome in mark o'connor. he's the co-founder and ceo of sycamore tree capital partners here at post nine. good to see you again. welcome back. thank you. i mean those are the markets you watch more than the equity markets. credit and credit's behaved okay. right. >> sure. it's been all. >> right but it's starting.

we're starting to see some. >> spreads are widening a little bit. >> yeah a little bit. >> are you concerned? >> i think i think it. >> makes sense that. >> the uncertainty. that is. rising across geopolitical, economic, consumer markets, rates. fed all of this. uncertainty has to have a premium. >> to it. >> there's got to be a risk premium built somewhere. and so we're starting to see that priced into markets a little bit. and frankly if you're bullish which we still are which is kind of weird. but we're still. >> going i know your voice sounds like it's wavering a little bit that you. >> i hope i hope it does because that's how i feel. i'm certainly not as risk on as as we felt maybe six months ago. but i think that the idea that markets need to move and put a higher risk premium, given the uncertainty is rational. and so i feel good about it because we're still we're still ramping. we're still buying credit. and if you can buy it at a better price because there's more spread in it, that's always a

good thing per se. we're not seeing it show up in the fundamentals yet. scott on the defaults are actually down. so you know borrowing is back right. in the equity markets credit is kind of a boring place per se. i mean, we're we don't react as much to have to. the fundamentals don't move with tariffs and all of this other stuff. but that being said i mean these markets have been moving a lot. >> yeah. yeah. i mean they've been volatile. but you said, you know, you're not as bullish as you were six months ago when this, this was supposed to be risk on. >> yeah. right. >> yeah. what's happening. >> well i, i think i think trump has come in untethered and i do believe that he, he has assessed that his time right is not long. and so let's say let's say they they lose congress in the midterms. right. and his ability to get a lot more done kind of kind of goes away in that scenario. so get it all done.

now push this out as possible. >> including a lot of the messy stuff. >> yeah, the uncomfortable things. but on the other hand. right. what we had proof today of what markets do i think i think trump probably only listens to the markets. he certainly doesn't listen to anything else, but he listens to the market. so what happens right. the markets sell off. we lose the whole trump bump. and oh okay. we're not going to do the tariffs on cars with these guys. right. we're going to moderate our policy. and we see this bump today. so it's i think i think as we think about credit where i would see the canary in the coal mine and the thing that i would be watching if i were, you know, an investor at home, i'd look at probably the ig market. it's a it's a much bigger market. it's pretty high and tight. it's run, run. well but you know that that spread there when it starts to move. and if it moves it's up five basis points on this kind of stuff, which is not much. but if

it goes up ten, 15, 20 basis points, i'd start to think really seriously about some defense. >> are you are you worried about corporate confidence eroding further. and that's why you're watching that particular market as closely as you are. >> i think corporate confidence is definitely down and it should be. we're seeing earnings revisions down significantly. i mean that that i mean, we talked about this risk on period was supposed to be really what you had. and you had almost 17% earnings growth in the fourth quarter. projection was for 13 this year. we're down to 1011 maybe ten nine. i don't i don't know. it's come down a lot in two months. so you're right i'm not confident that that a cfo, a ceo has about how they're going to run their company is definitely a problem. and it's also when you think about the fed, what is the fed's reaction to all of this? now the fed is in a difficult spot because they've got they've got things that are going both directions

on them. right. i mean employment is definitely an issue. i mean, i think if doge is supposed to do something about the deficit, it's an ice cube at a volcano. the doge doesn't. there's only there's only for 4.5% of the budget. that's people that's salaries. right. so doge doesn't affect the, the, the overall sort of deficit, which is really the issue. but it does hit confidence. it does hit payrolls. it's going to hit one of the things that the fed really cares about. and so we'll see what happens on friday with the employment report. so that that would that would kind of and the market's pricing in three cuts now. so maybe that's what people are thinking. but on the other hand all this tariff stuff is stagflationary. that's not good. that that goes the other way on their mandate. so i think they i think they're sitting on their hands right now. and if that's the case and you're a you're a ceo, you don't know which way the fed is going to move. that makes it even more uncertain. so it's difficult. >> how's a guy like you play

defense if you if you feel like getting more defensive in credit, how do you do that? >> well, the themes that we started on before were, were, you know, we like dry powder in, in floating rate high grade stuff. so triple a clo still yielding 5% floating rate, triple a better better yield, better rating than the us government. that's been good. that's continued to be good. that's a great place to hide. you're still making good returns that are better than than than than cpi or any sort of risk you're looking at from an inflationary standpoint. and then within the credit book itself, like there's 1500 issuers that we could be invested in, we're going to pick higher quality. so quality is the theme that we've had this year, and we'll continue to play the quality theme. do you. >> think rates are overshooting to the downside? right. right now. >> i do, i do i think that's a function of have you you've probably had dan clifton on he's talked about this liquidity

bazooka when we hit the debt ceiling. right. the treasury starts to pay their bills by spending down their cash. that that money is outside the banking system. until that happens, that goes into the system creates more liquidity. this time it's like 5 or 600 billion. so it's a big number. so that's that's depressing rates. it's depressing the dollar. bu othe other hand it ends around the end of april. and so you could i mean who knows. we could snap back to five on the ten year i don't know that you're. >> not planning for that are you? >> i think it's a risk. i think it's a definite risk in this kind of market. and because this fall is really, really amazing to watch. i mean, you know, we didn't talk about the scary thing, but the end moved from 158 to 1 48 in 28 days. that's a big move. yeah. >> well we saw what happened the last time we had an issue with the unwind of the carry. and i think it was august right. the

first week of august. that's right. that didn't feel good down here. which means we'll have to catch up with you again. thanks for being here. >> thanks, guys. >> good to see you as always. all right. that's mark okada from sycamore tree joining us. you be well up next, treasury partners richard saperstein is back with us. he makes the case back with us. he makes the case for t ♪♪ well would you look at that? jerry, you've got to see this. i've seen it. trust me, after 15 walks, it gets a little old. ugh. i really should be retired by now. wish i'd invested when i had the chance... to the moon! unbelievable. stop waiting. start investing. e*trade ® from morgan stanley. comfortable retirement for years now. you need to plan for

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>> read chat. >> your ai small cap assistant. read chat. >> together. >> we can save the planet. >> from all those soulless. >> self-driving sleep pods. >> everyone else. >> keeps polluting. >> our streets with. >> overtime is about understanding what just happened in the markets that day and preparing for tomorrow. i'm looking to talk to all investors and sophisticated investors. beginning investors. i'm always learning. >> closing bell overtime for eastern cnbc. >> welcome to cnbc's. >> crypto world. >> cnbc's daily digital show has trading updates, the latest headlines, a global perspective and high profile interviews. scan to watch cnbc's crypto world, sponsored by crypto.com. >> all right. welcome back. stocks are higher today but still down sharply over the past week as you know. our next guest sees now as the time to buy two of the sectors that were hit

hard during the past few days. joining me now at post nine, treasury partners, richard saperstein, one of the highest rated, one of the highest rated financial advisors in this country, according to barron's in the top 100. you, my friend, were ranked number four. congratulations. thank you. which means your advice is i always tell. you better be good. what are these two areas? what are the two sectors? >> well. >> look. trump's policies have. been very. >> widely telegraphed. and now the market's trying to digest whether tariffs are going to be inflationary or recessionary stagflation. >> whether doge. >> will. >> cause a slowdown and whether. >> immigration is. going to have an effect on. >> labor costs. so i think it's important. >> to look. >> through what's going on now in this. >> current bout of. volatility to the structural changes. >> that are occurring as a result of this administration. that includes deregulation. flat. >> to lower. >> oil prices. >> we have. >> declining inflation. >> we. >> have an. accommodative fed.

>> and we have an. >> sec that will be more accommodative. >> for m&a. >> so when we look. >> at that i do. >> think i. >> do believe. >> so what i mean what's happened so far. you know they've already said they're going to stick to the biden era m&a rules. that was kind of a surprise to people. yeah rules. >> are. >> going to change. >> i mean everything's. >> changing daily. >> remember years. >> ago. >> we spoke about the. >> risk of. 500 basis point increase in the fed funds rate. and that was the big risk. >> today the big risk. >> is. >> policies out. >> of washington. and that's. >> what we have. >> to pay attention to. >> but in the. >> end, the landscape. >> for investing. >> will be. >> more beneficial for corporate profits to grow. >> is the fed still really accommodative? >> potentially, yes. >> i mean, i. >> don't think you come into the year thinking, yeah, they are less than we thought before. still accommodative now. i don't know. that's like sitting on their hands because they don't know the impact of tariffs any more than you, me or anybody

else. agreed. >> and i don't think we need the fed for stocks to go higher. >> i think we. >> have got to get. >> through this period. where a lot of this. >> these policies are implemented creating. >> the volatility. >> and look. >> through to the sectors. >> that will. >> still do well. we teased it here at the beginning or at least we read it in the intro. you got two sectors that have been beaten down that you like. one is what's one of them okay. >> so let's talk about utilities. the demand for power is growing. >> 2.5% a year. it's not just. from data centers, which is 40% of that demand. >> it's from residential. >> electrification on shoring. there's a lot of power demand that's going. >> to occur. >> and the. >> sectors that we're looking at right now is the utility sector, specifically in producers. and there's two. >> vast vistra. >> and nrg. okay okay. >> well vista's been crushed in the momentum unwind. >> absolutely. >> and it's. >> a great. >> opportunity to add right now it's a. >> $42 billion company. roughly $5.5 billion. >> of operating cash flow. the

free. >> cash flow yield is over 7.5%. >> on that company. >> so they're going to return it to shareholders. >> and it's in a position now. where we're going to add to our position. >> you are going to add to it. >> absolutely. >> what are you going to do. >> that is. >> as soon as i feel comfortable. >> not quite. when are you going to do i wonder if you missed your chance. i mean, these things got crushed so bad. some of them have rebounded a little bit. >> we own it in the 20s since 2021. >> okay. so we're. >> going. >> to own this. >> stock for. >> 510 years. >> so i still think the. >> market's going to be very volatile, especially through april. >> 2nd when trump's going to announce the. product tariffs. these are just kind of. fentanyl and. >> immigration related tariffs. >> so i think we have to be patient here. and look. >> i've seen. >> these drawdowns for. >> 40 years. and we. >> don't have to just jump right at the first opportunity. >> i guess the only thing i would ask about vistra again is

the idea that maybe after deep seek, we are coming to grips with the fact that maybe we're going to need less, not more of everything. i mean, we're still going to need more compute, we think, but maybe it costs less. we're still going to need a lot of power. but if you can do more with less, maybe you don't need as much power as you thought. initially, that sent these stocks literally straight up to the moon. >> if you listen. to nadella's. >> last interview. >> all right, i know what you're going to say. >> so agents are only increasing. so we're going to need. more compute, more data centers. we're going to. >> need more. >> power to. fund all to power all those data centers. so i think it only increases the demand. >> for. >> inference and. >> compute okay. and the other sector you would buy that's been weak is big tech. >> yeah. >> large cap tech. >> so meta 3 billion daily users. google 4 billion daily

users. microsoft 2 million installed. corporate base apple. >> 2 billion. >> daily users. >> right? i mean, these companies. >> have large moats, recurring revenues, and they're operating cash flows. right now. you take amazon and google. it's back up to seven and a half, 8% right now. >> so i think it's. >> important for every investor to have these in their portfolios and not look at it as just a trade. these are long term investments, sure. >> but i mean, you think apple is worth 31 times forward. >> well. >> is the market worth 22 times forward? >> well i mean you need to answer that question, but i mean it. apple are the fundamentals currently of apple worth the premium of that multiple. >> this is the biggest debate right now. and we can dissect it services you know products. but i own the company i believe it's going to continue to grow. it's probably at a rich multiple right now. >> but i think.

>> it's got to be essential in everyone's portfolio. >> we'll leave it there. good seeing you again. likewise, richard saperstein joining us back here at post nine. up next, oil. it's falling for a third day. we drill down on what is behind that. next on the bell. >> the bond report is brought to you by pimco, a global leader in active fixed income. >> running out. >> of money in retirement.

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it's a very special bell ringing here in about ten minutes. 12 minutes or so. the congressional medal of honor society is doing the honors today at the new york stock exchange. the shot we were just showing you there of that great man, colonel paris davis. he was the medal of honor recipient. he's 85 years old, by the way. he was presented with the medal of honor on march 3rd of 2023 for his service in vietnam. although wounded in the leg, he aided in the evacuation of other wounded men in his unit with complete disregard for his own life, he braved intense enemy fire to cross an open field to rescue his seriously wounded and immobilized team sergeant, and while carrying the sergeant up a hill to a position of relative safety, captain davis was again wounded by enemy fire. he again refused medical evacuation until he had recovered. a us advisor under his command who had been wounded

during the initial ambush and presumed dead. while personally recovering the wounded soldier, he found himself severely wounded but still clinging to life, not leaving the battlefield himself until after all friendly forces were recovered or medically evacuated. several medal of honor winners up on the podium today, and we are honoring all of them for their great service to this great country. to pippa stephens. now for a look at the energy space. >> pippa scott. well, brant oil is thinking to a more than three year low on four key factors demand uncertainty amid the us's tariffs on china, canada and mexico opec announcing it will increase production beginning in april, a possible easing on sanctions on russia, which could bring those barrels back to the market. and finally, u.s. data today showing a larger than expected inventory build. now, the energy sector turning negative on the year today dragged lower by the refiners. that's marathon petroleum, valero and phillips 66. while the tariff impacts will likely

be felt across the supply chain, the refiners are the first exposed since they will have to pay the higher price for that canadian crude. >> scott thank you. that's pippa stevens still ahead. what to watch for when marvell reports its results. top of the hour. we're back on the bell right after this break. >> sector sword is sponsored by sector spider etfs. the sector spider etfs visit us on the web at sector spiders.com. >> this is the emirates premium economy seat. >> economy. >> p do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even

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for you on your road to here, because there's nothing as ♪♪ well would you look at that? jerry, you've got to see this. i've seen it. trust me, after 15 walks, it gets a little old. ugh. i really should be retired by now. wish i'd invested when i had the chance... to the moon! unbelievable. stop waiting. start investing. e*trade ® from morgan stanley. >> all right, we're the market zone with cnbc senior markets commentator mike santoli. so what's on your mind? headline driven tariffs for sure. >> headline driven. although arguably a little bit of the pressure was turned down today. >> so if. >> you as a mental model you say

okay yesterday at the lows s&p around 5700. you kind of had the maximum tariff aggression along with maximum short term concern about how the economy was holding up. i think you got eased up on both fronts. maybe that minor step back deferring the auto tariffs, but also better ism services. facebook usually doesn't move the markets, but it didn't hurt to have a little bit of reassurance. and so it allowed the s&p to escape yesterday's fate. the one day chart today was exactly like yesterday. except we didn't have the last half hour dump. at least not yet. so i think it's sort of like you check off the box and oversold market is able to respond. we're sitting right at the waypoint that you would have expected which is yesterday's high. and so in general i don't think we're we can sort of have a line of sight into when we're going to be free of the headline driven tape and when we can basically say, okay, we know what the situation is going to be. but ahead of the jobs

number, bond yields relaxed higher. i think part of that was the german yields running, but also just this idea that maybe, you know, the economy is hanging together. you can tell yourself a story that it was weather, you know, kind of weather impacted january and february, and then you kind of have a little more spending ammo in the tank here. >> you don't get out of a growth scare on wall street overnight. obviously. and yeah, and we're starting to obsess a little bit about the idea of stagflation. now everybody's talking about it. so let's see how long it takes for that to run its course. >> i think you need you're going to need further little moments of reassurance on this. and the jobs are going to probably be a good, you know, a good place to see if that comes. i'm resistant to the stagflation idea. i know what people are saying. you know, you're kind of short of your inflation target. at the same time, that means the fed can't respond to a sharp slowdown in growth. but overall, i would say it's much more about being in this in-between space and seeing if tariffs are going to force you to cut earnings estimates. >> all right. so we've had a

nice. >> snapback today. and once again as the bell is going to ring in a moment just call your attention to the medal of honor winners who are here at the new york stock exchange. right up there on the podium. >> just move the pictures speak for themselves. >> i'll see you tomorrow. >> that bell marks the end of regulation. the congressional. >> medal of honor. >> society ringing the closing bell at the new york stock exchange. diginex limited, doing the honors at the nasdaq. and it's a rebound rally as tariff pressures ease slightly. and services data comes in ahead of estimates, ahead of key jobs numbers tomorrow and friday. that's the scorecard on wall street, but winners stay late. welcome to closing bell overtime i'm jon fortt. morgan brennan is on assignment today. ahead this hour former boston fed president eric rosengren on the tariff impact on the economy. and the one thing he says could sharply raise the risk of economic stagflation. plus,