>> all right christopher rolland getting us ready with how to interpret marvell and how to how to think about broadcom coming up. and we do have broadcom tomorrow. a lot of macro data as well. tomorrow and friday. that's going to do it for us on overtime for today. fast money starts right now. >> live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york. >> city's times square. this is fast money. here's what's on tap tonight. dollar doldrums. the greenback sinking sharply this week, hitting levels not seen since the election. what is behind this pullback and what's it mean for the markets. and musk backlash has been hitting tesla's stock and its showrooms. what the ceo's political positions could mean for the company at home and abroad. plus china sets an ambitious new growth target. but how will tariffs plan to its outlook? apple shares flirt with correction territory and liquor maker brown-forman gets spirited after earnings. i'm melissa lee coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq on the desk

tonight. tim seymour dan nathan and lori calvasina head of u.s. equity strategy at rbc. >> we start. >> off with two major moves taking hold of the market this week. first up, crude oil dropping for a third straight day, hitting its lowest level since may 2023. trump's tariffs and opec production increases, pushing texas ti toward its worst weekly performance in five months. >> the beverly hillbillies. >> moving oil, crushing the energy sector now negative on the year and on pace for its worst week since october 2023. slowdown fears also gripping the greenback. the u.s. dollar index falling more than a percent today on pace for its worst week since november 2022. the euro yuan, mexican peso, yen canadian dollar all gaining steam as currency traders bet that the u.s. economy is in for a bumpy ride. so what do these downward moves in both the dollar and oil mean for the broader markets? guy. >> i. >> think well. >> first thing you know. >> jed's a millionaire. yeah, i mean. that's great reference. i

mean, unbelievable. and he's been doing it by shorting a couple of things crude oil. >> but more. >> importantly, i think the. >> dollar and you have. >> a pretty. >> good memory. i think rest of us do as well. >> it was august. >> 5th that the market. >> sold off. >> in a meaningful way. >> and if you. >> recall. >> the. backdrop is what's going on with dollar yen. and the yen. >> was strengthening. >> in. >> a meaningful way. >> and it all started with the cpi report. >> in july. i only mention. >> that because very quietly. >> the yen has been. >> strengthening right. >> before our eyes, and we. >> might be on sort of the precipice. >> of another. >> types of those events. >> but it speaks to. >> a weakening dollar, weakening commodities. >> i think a growth. >> concern. >> something that. tim's been talking about. >> and i think. >> the market. >> is. >> waking up to it. >> yeah. lori. >> how do you interpret this. so look, another time that we saw. >> the dollar just. absolutely slide was. >> back in the fourth quarter of 2018. and what else happened. >> back in the. >> fourth quarter of 2018. companies had started to warn investors that trump's tariffs, that the china trade war was going to have an adverse impact. we saw that absolutely happen in

that september conference season. and as i think back, you know, the last week or so talking to investors. it's not just tariffs they're concerned about. it's all the disruption coming out of washington. >> and the ripple effects. >> and we're finally starting to see investors question whether or not those tariffs are, you know, not just. >> a. >> negotiating tactic. if they're actually going to stick around. you're starting to see, you know, glimmers of problems in the job market that investors. >> are taking. notice of. >> and so growth is being questioned. and i think that's, you know, pressuring both of those right now. >> i tell you, i'd say only 20% of the dollar move. >> is tariffs in weakness. >> i'd say 80% of it is foreign policy. and i would link back also. >> the weakness in oil. >> to what's going on with the dollar. >> i mean, look at what happened in germany. >> you have a country. >> making a historic. >> announcement in terms of what they're going to do in terms of raising debt. >> and going on high. growth that rallies the euro, that rallies. >> bond. >> yields. >> obviously sells off their debt. but this is. >> all about the euro rallying. >> against the dollar. >> this is all about the saudis siding with the us. >> and russia. >> and. >> cutting out the rest of europe. >> talking about ukraine. >> this is about. >> cutting an oil. >> deal with the saudis. so

opec. >> decides they're going to increase production. to me, this mosaic and it is there. >> all these pieces. >> there are. >> related. >> and trump's impacting impacting all these corners of the market. and i think it's. not just about. the economic. >> data which. >> has been weaker. >> i think that. >> is part of it. >> i think tariffs are a big concern. >> but what's going on in europ, and the reaction. >> to us. foreign policy. >> right now has major implications for the dollar and. major implications for global bond yields. >> you guys know me. >> as like. >> the silver lining. >> guy right. yeah. >> so what i would say. >> about this. >> dollar weakness. >> is that. >> okay us. >> multinationals. >> especially the big tech guys who have a lot of stuff overseas, maybe it's pretty good. you know we've seen. >> s&p 500. >> earnings expectations. >> come. >> down over the. last quarter or so. >> it's not something we saw a whole heck of a lot in 2024. i think we came into the year with like 13% expected year over year growth. >> and that's. >> been ratcheted down. >> right. >> a little bit. >> so maybe. >> this is the. >> sort of. >> thing. >> that helps. >> buoy. >> you know, some of these. >> mega-cap tech. stocks that. >> have had a tough time year to date, that sort of thing. >> so again, we're. >> almost done with.

>> the quarter. and. >> you know, we're going to get. >> very focused. >> on q1. >> earnings really soon. so maybe that is. something of a tailwind. >> yeah i'm glad that you mentioned the european investment. i mean the german investment is huge, ■k7500 billn for a tight fisted, fiscal austere country for so long to be. now, you know, we're going to go pedal to the metal and. >> we're going to spend it on defense, and we're going to spend it on technology around defense. >> and like europe is in. >> in a scramble right now. >> and there's no question the most important economy in. >> europe just went. >> from a gdp. >> gdp estimate. >> for 2025 of 8/10 of a percent to. at this rate, people are saying 2% just on today alone. again, this is historic. we haven't seen this kind of a move in bond yields. >> in 27 years. >> or something like that. and again the germans who are known. >> for fiscal. >> austerity, this. >> is. >> a breakout. this is something that i think is actually fantastic for european stocks, something we've been talking about. >> now for. >> even at highs. >> yes. yeah. i mean i think this is massive, but i think it is tied to oil. and again it's about refocusing some of the geopolitics whether you like it or not. it's having an impact on these major asset classes. >> i think. >> tim is on to something really important regarding europe. we saw peak bearishness. >> on europe.

>> back in december, early january. when i think about my meetings. >> and my colleagues. >> meetings with. >> our. >> clients there, and what we're actually noticing. >> in the funds flow. >> data is that you are finally starting to see money go back into western european equity funds, going back into german funds in particular. you're not seeing it in the uk, you're. not seeing it in france. >> so i think there's. >> something specific to germany going on. but it's very, very much i mean, we're not even in early days. we're in early minutes of that trade. >> early minutes of the trade. >> it's barely perceptible. >> we've had 15 years of. >> relative underperformance of the euro stoxx 50 to the s&p. i mean, there is a lot of catch up here. there's still a lot of value, at least if you look at pure valuations of where europe's trade into the us. >> yeah we're going. >> to get to christopher in europe later on in the show. but in terms of i mean if the world is going to, you know, what in a handbasket. >> you know, you can say. >> hell should. >> be there. in other words. >> you can't say. >> or you. >> can say hell in. >> a handbasket. >> but if you would say if you can't say something hitting the. >> hell in a bucket. >> yeah. >> my point. >> is, is the greenback is. >> safe haven. theoretically

that. >> well, you know what? there are a lot. >> of people. >> out there a lot smarter. >> than. >> i am. >> which is. >> not. >> a high. >> bar that think. >> that. maybe that trade is sort. >> of getting long in. >> the. >> tooth and sort of in the, in the sort of the scope of. >> a dollar. >> being a safe haven. >> so there's a scenario, by the way, where. >> the dollar continues to sort of. >> go lower against. >> these currencies and bond yields here in the united states. start to go higher. and you saw glimpses of it today. >> i mean. >> ten year yields were 411. >> a day and a half. >> two. >> days ago. >> it's 4.25 now. obviously i don't. >> make a huge deal yet, but you. >> start seeing the unraveling of the. >> bond market. >> against a weaker dollar, and. >> you're. >> seeing something. >> you haven't seen in a very. >> long time. >> i would just say on the safe haven point, i think that has been true in the past. but what i've really noticed with the international investment community in particular, is there is just a failure to understand. >> the logic of policy. >> and i think that calls into. the question whether or. >> the logic of the policy that is being pursued. >> right now. yeah, whether it's tariffs, you. >> know. >> i think there's maybe a little bit more. >> you know, sort of skepticism. >> with. >> tax and things. >> like that that are going to happen. >> there was some initial.

>> excitement on doge, and i think that's really evaporated at this point. but i think on tariffs in particular, you know, i hear people talk about game theory and i hear them talk about. >> the. >> logic and the damage it's going to do to the economies. and just really kind of questioning why these policies are being put into place. and i think when there's just a lack of understanding and a lack of really understanding why things are happening, that. >> safe haven status. >> comes under question. all right. for more. >> on where the dollar could be headed next, bk asset management's kathy lee joins us now. she's a managing director of strategy. kathy, great to speak with you. we've been talking about a lot of the factors pushing the dollar, the direction it's going. and i'm wondering what you think is the strongest force behind the dollar going forward. >> well, i think a. >> lot of. >> the. >> points that were. >> just made were very. >> very valid. >> but i. >> think the greatest. >> factor driving. >> the dollar. >> right now. >> is really. >> you know. >> the movements in the. >> bond market. >> as well as the general risk appetite. we've seen the vix reach its. >> highest level. >> this year. i think that that's a sign of anxiety in the markets. what's really interesting is that stocks are not. responding the same way because even though you know we're seeing heightened volatility, it seems like the equity traders are still

cautiously optimistic that a lot of the concerns that are posed by the tariffs are not going to be as severe. i'm you know, i'm certainly not in that camp. i'm worried about it. and so i think it's a factor that, you know, what is driving the us dollar right now. and it's going to continue to be a main driver of us dollar flows. >> so right now this growth scare that's the predominant force in your view kathy. and in your view i mean i know that you're partial obviously to the fx market, but i mean, do you believe what what the bond market, what the market is telling us versus the equity market? it sounds like you're skeptical. you don't know why the equity market's doing what it's doing. >> i do, and i think it's really hard to imagine that, you know, the warnings that we're getting from the corporate sector talking about having to raise prices, talking about implementing layoffs, talking about a weaker growth season, it's not going to manifest itself in the stock market. i think that, you know, stocks are due for a more significant correction. i think we've lost our opportunity to buy puts on

cheaply. i think that a lot of people are looking to buy protection these days. i think there's a lot of reasons why stocks could see a more significant correction. and for my world and fx, that means risk aversion. so while we are seeing the euro, you know, rally significantly today, the australian dollar, canadian dollar, many of the major currencies up against the greenback. i still think that this is significant risk of correction in the markets. that will lead to a correction in currencies. >> kathy. >> is there. >> a level in dollar. >> yen. >> where you get concerned in so much. >> as. >> what we. >> saw last. >> summer and the effect that it had on our. >> markets here? >> well, i mean, last summer we did have, you know, a significant weakness, significant moves in dollar yen. i think in terms of dollar yen itself, the bank of japan is really watching the 140 level. i think, you know, they haven't really come in any degree size. they are also watching to see the ramifications of the tariffs, which is why they've been kind of very cagey on what the next interest rate hike will happen. so there's a lot of

things at play here. but we do see momentum in japan's economy, which should justify strengthen the japanese yen and further interest rate hikes. but the tariff is a huge uncertainty for everyone in the region, even if japan is not targeted right now. and i think they're kind of in wait and see mode. >> kathy, it's tim, i guess i think this move and my question to you, isn't this move all about dollar euro? that's 60% of the dixie. it's what we've had across europe over the last couple of days. and the news out of germany, not only historic is the word we're using here, but but this is a case where you've had a major reassessment. remember, the euro was possibly overshooting to the downside around the around the new year. so i just let's put this in perspective. do you how much of this do you think is tariffs. how much do you think of. this is just all about europe. >> well today it's certainly all about europe because today, as you said earlier with that huge package fiscal spending package that was announced. so today this move is certainly about europe. but i don't think that if we look forward that's just

going to be about europe. i think they're still going to be a central focus on the dollar. you know, this move could be erased if trump kind of provides details on when the timing of the european union tariffs are going to happen. so there's a lot of, you know, volatility that can happen a lot of back and forth in the euro. i don't think that the pure stimulus package that we've gotten from germany is the only thing that investors should be focusing on. >> does safe haven status save the dollar from significant slide or does that not kick in this time. >> so that's really interesting that you say that melissa, because i heard the earlier segment that a lot of your other guests do not believe that the dollar is going to retain the safe haven status. i beg to differ. i think that we're going to see, you know, a more of a safe haven bid in the greenback. i think, you know, we haven't seen the correction yet, but i think we will and we will be hard for those currencies to avoid selling off as well. >> kathy, great to speak with you. thank you. kathleen bk asset management tim. you did you really believe it?

>> and i want to be. clear about this. i don't think the dollar is even close to losing reserve currency status. it's not even it's not even i understand theoretically i understand we've disrupted a lot of strong allies and trading partners. i understand there's been an argument for years. this is why bitcoin is doing what it's doing and why i say you should buy gold. but if you're telling me that ultimately the tactical moves by the administration, whether they're right or wrong, that have greatly impacted this move in the dollar and certainly caused a lot of uncertainty, which has also impacted the dollar, is suddenly putting the dollar in question. when you look around the world, it's not even close. so i actually i don't think we should mess around with reserve currency status and our our credit rating and the things that i think we do talk about. but there's nothing about this move here that that has me concerned that the dollar is losing. i think it's ridiculous. >> i mean, in terms of safe haven, though, like a bid for safety, not reserve currency. >> okay. well, i mean, again, it's not time for safe haven. you know, we haven't seen dislocation in markets. i understand we've had volatility. we've had five days in a row. we've had intraday 2% vol.

that's it's not time for a safe. >> yeah. >> and it's more like the other asset classes away from equity. >> that. >> have seen some pretty. extreme volatility. but you know i'll just say this with the. uncertainty about. policy i mean this is going to stick around if we keep doing this like putting the tariffs in place. but then you know giving exemptions for this for a month or whatever. it's the sort of thing that you can't if you're like the c level suite for a lot of these companies, you can't just turn it back on. right. if you get really kind of cautious about this sort of thing and you're worried about growth and you're worried about global growth, and you know, to me it just seems a bit silly. it looks like they're literally playing chicken with our economy, maybe the global economy for politics, not exactly for policy. and so it goes back to what tim was saying about geopolitics. there's some real risks that are becoming with our biggest allies right now. and i don't think what's different about this than 2018, it was really focused on china now. but i think some of these other like i think europe is becoming emboldened a little bit. i think the. >> idea that nato, europe has to scramble, there's a lot of different things going on. and you're right. i mean, i think i think it's dangerous to play

around with these things. i still look at the much bigger picture, which is i don't think anything can change. >> yeah. >> i'm not making a comment on the reserve currency issue, but what i will tell you is that international investors do not understand what is going. >> on. >> and we are really starting to smell the risk. >> of a. >> growth scare coming back into this market. so what do i mean by that? a garden variety pullback is about 5 to 10% right. we're in the middle of that. >> now. your next tier of. >> fear tends to be a 14 to 20% drawdown where real concerns where people just don't understand what's going on. think back to the s&p downgrade that we had, you know, back in the early days after the financial crisis 2018, we had a 20% drawdown peak to trough. those are areas where market participants have really questioned whether there was. something systemic. >> starting to. >> happen or if we were really on the brink of a recession. and that's what i you know, my base case is that we bottom out around. >> you know, kind of in that 5. >> to 10% mark. but if we go to something next and, you know, frankly, we're starting to see cracks in the labor market emerging in survey data. we got that adp report today. there's a

real question about growth in the us starting to emerge. and when that happens the us is not your safety trade right. meantime stocks. >> snapping a two. >> day losing. >> streak with a sharp midday rally. the nasdaq leading the gains up a percent and a half, though all three major indices still down for the week. the move coming after president trump said he would put off tariffs on the auto industry for one month. stocks taking a big leg higher on that news as well. for the very latest, let's get to our megan cassella in washington. megan. >> melissa, that sigh of relief from the. automakers coming after white house press secretary caroline leavitt told reporters. >> the one. >> month exemption was at the. >> request of the automakers in order to ensure they. >> were not. >> at an economic disadvantage. it comes after trump. >> spoke yesterday with the leaders of ford, gm and stellantis. and that's the good news. but there is much. >> more to come here. on the tariff front. >> cars made up a big chunk. >> of trade with canada and mexico. >> maybe 15. >> or 20%. >> but tariffs still remain in place on. everything else. >> canada's foreign minister. >> also said in. >> the last hour that conversations are still ongoing with the us, but that they are

very fluid. >> and that canada could. >> potentially use oil. >> and gas. >> exports as a lever if tariffs. >> continue, suggesting. >> potentially more retaliation to. >> come there. and we also have two big dates. >> to watch. one is next week steel and aluminum tariffs. >> those are set for march 12th and they have already been signed into law. >> canada and mexico. >> will be deeply impacted. >> by. >> those are likely to retaliate. >> the auto industry also. >> going to get. >> caught up there as well. >> the other date is april 2nd. those are the reciprocal tariffs and. commerce secretary. howard lutnick. he said today canada. >> and mexico will be targeted with those. >> and that. while the. reciprocal tariffs will start on the second, they could continue to trickle. >> out over weeks. >> or even months. so when it comes to the tariff front, guys, we may be just at the. start of all of this. melissa. >> megan. thank you. megan. cassella. so a reprieve for the automakers for now. inventory is pegged at 84 days of inventory in the united states, according to cargurus. so they have a few months maybe if they can pull forward some production now, they can be covered for longer.

>> a couple. >> of things from this. >> we had a conversation about gm. >> last night. >> we actually. >> said. >> you know what? >> it just. traded down the levels we saw in october. >> it's a. logical place for it. >> to. >> stop and potentially. >> bounce from. >> it happened. >> today and i think it will continue to move higher. the other. >> thing is the. >> broader market and it's in my opinion, not coincidence. >> look at where we. >> stopped today in the s&p 5700. basically go back and look at where the s&p was on election day 5700. >> don't think. >> for a minute that this administration doesn't have that sort of peg somewhere as sort of a benchmark as to how low they will allow the market to go in the short term? yeah, i would say today's rally was not particularly impressive. you look at the s&p up 1%. you look at the weakness in banks on a relative basis. we already talked about energy. it just didn't seem that broad based. we saw some stuff. they've gotten really hit hard, probably more for fundamental reasons. if you look at some of the mega-cap tech over the last few weeks. so not a particularly impressive rally in my opinion. >> yeah. what do you make of about the weakness in banks? >> you know, it's interesting. >> i've been at the rbc financial conference for the last couple of days, and i'll tell you, the tone was was very

constructive. i mean, they're acknowledging the impact that tariffs are having on dialog. but in terms of credit, things. still look really good in terms of day to day business activity. they're not really seeing any problem developed. so i came away from the last two days thinking the plumbing of the economy is pretty good. i have liked banks, i've liked financials, and i've liked banks over cap markets, and i'm sticking with that. >> yeah. look the rhetoric on m&a and slow down and deal flow i mean that's been the big headline over the last couple of days. but the bottom line is dereg for banks is a is a great story right now. watch the yield curve though it is flattening. >> coming up souring on apple. the tech giant briefly falling into correction territory today. what it could mean if the last mag seven holdout falls even further. and speaking of the mag seven. tesla has been in a tailspin since the inauguration. it's now more than 40% off its own record. well, global backlash to ceo elon musk continue to threaten the ev maker. don't go anywhere fast when he's back in two. >> this is fast money with >> this is fast money with melissa lee right here on

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maker is currently the only stock among the so-called magnificent seven. less than 10% off highs. tesla, nvidia, alphabet seeing the steepest corrections among the group. now apple had some news. they revealed a new ipad lite came out with a pretty damning. i don't know if you saw it, dan. no, no. okay. >> basically it to me. >> i'll try and forward it with the email. right. using the email. yeah. >> or carrier. >> pigeons basically. can it can it innovate before it gets disruptive disrupted. >> yeah. >> saying that they're not innovating enough at this point. >> yeah. no doubt. i mean this is something that we're all pretty skeptical. last june when they announced this apple intelligence, you know, it really didn't do what a lot of analysts or investors thought it was going to do, which is cause an upgrade cycle for the hardware, right? if they're not upgrading hardware that has these new chips that are going to power these sort of ai apps in the future, then, you know, i mean, it's just they're going to get left behind. now, one of the reasons why it might have been outperforming on a relative basis is if you look at q4 earnings and we heard the capex by amazon, by google, by

microsoft, by meta, when you had decelerating revenue growth and higher than expected capex. investors kind of punished them. well, apple's not doing that right now. they're not building out data centers, or at least not now. they talked about that, you know, $500 million investment that they're going to make going forward. so to me, i think apple is not particularly interesting here. expectations for high single digit earnings growth mid single digits sales growth. unless they have an upgrade cycle this year that's not happening. >> it's only a few more months of the anniversary of the wwdc, where the ai enthusiasm was completely ignited. >> stock was 193. >> that thing was june. >> 10th 193. >> it closed that day. >> it went sort. >> of nowhere. >> in the aftermarket. >> a month and. >> a half, two months later, was. >> trading in the. mid two 20s, was off to the races, so. i was not overwhelmed. >> by that. gene munster. >> came on the show that day and said it was transformative. >> he was right. >> but there's. >> a universe. >> where we could round trip the entire thing and again, a valuation, a concern in today's market. apple shouldn't. >> be more. >> expensive, in. >> my opinion. than a facebook or even a microsoft, which is actually now below valuation of

apple. >> i mean, i disagree just because i think we haven't seen apple be the beneficiary of some of the fluff that these other companies have, and i understand the dynamic around the top line. that's that's under some pressure. i don't know why we aren't going to continue to have a refresh cycle. i mean, that's just what happens with or without ai. so i look at the stock, i actually think apple versus the market. and you didn't ask me this, melissa, but i think apple can outperform and be defensive like a lot of these lower vol stocks that are buying back stock and that actually have significant free cash flow. >> yeah. but tim, in a market or an environment that is. >> up i mean. >> let's. >> do it. all right. no. if we have a slowing economy like this is not this is discretionary sort of device. right. and one of the narratives into the fall was that there's three, 400 million iphones that are more than 3 or 4 years old that need to be refreshed. well, they didn't get refreshed, right? if you look at iphones are not growing, you know, year over year. so unless they have a reason or they're giving you a reason to upgrade this year, i think you're like iphone ten or something like that. i don't understand the problem. and what in this thing, the ipad. >> that's a new one though. but

this thing. >> breaks every three. like the back of my phone cracks into thousand pieces every three years. look at this. i mean, despite it's titanium. but you know what? >> whatever you see, well. >> you wonder. >> why when you drop. >> it. >> how you. >> handle it. >> all right, well, look, i'm a little rough on things. >> what are the easiest calls in the market? if you're like, a like a pundit like us is every time you see these folks come on and say it's going to be upgrade, supercycle, fade it. i mean, like, come on. >> well i just think there's macro here, right? i mean, i don't think it's any of these names that we pick out in particular, but when you have money rotating from us to back to europe, the mag seven are going to get hit. i mean, that's all they want to talk about when i go over to europe. that and healthcare and consumer stocks and growth gets hit. when you move back to europe. >> why was there no flag on the self? >> would you rather that tim pulled off a few minutes ago? >> i mean, i didn't like it. it's going to write it down. i did it respectfully. >> no it doesn't. >> it makes it okay. >> well. >> i read i. >> ran that red light. respectfully, officer. >> she thought it was clever. >> makes it okay. >> i thought it was an okay one. i will make an annotation in my

notebook where i keep all. >> you might. >> notice that i don't do. >> that, melissa. >> anyway, there is a lot more fast money to come. here's what's coming up next. >> tesla flashing its hazard lights as global backlash over ceo elon musk grows. how people are protesting his recent political stances. plus a market reality check the warning from one china expert amid escalating tariff tensions, the latest in the trade war and how beijing could respond. you're watching fast money live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. >> hotel energy has been hunting. >> for the best. entrepreneurs across africa. >> to tackle. energy poverty. >> farmers are highly dependent. >> on rainfall, but. >> water is. >> scarce with drought. our solution. >> is. >> mobile solar containers for off grid farmers, which uses ai to make irrigation more efficient. being an entrepreneur is not an easy task. if you have to have faith that a door will

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agentforce. it's what ai was meant to be. defending champion eyeing his next signature moment. what a finish. the arnold palmer. >> invitational on nbc. >> and peacock. >> welcome back to fast money tesla getting a more than 2% pop today, but public backlash against ceo elon musk's political positions weighing on shares. so far this year, the stock has shed more than a third of its value since president trump took office in january. two incidents of suspected arson involving tesla just this week, a dozen vehicles at a dealership in france set ablaze. well, seven charging stations were torched in a boston suburb early monday morning. so with its ceo seemingly preoccupied with making waves in washington, just how big is tesla's musk problem? it's really, you know, in europe, which is a huge market, obviously, for tesla, it's siding with the far right, which

is really causing issues in terms of the backlash there. >> and we're seeing it immediately. i mean, the sales are down 50% year over year. china sales were down 50% year over year. and you know, listen, as the silver lining guy, i really can't find one here. if you think about who are you know. >> the silver. >> lining tries. >> to rebrand. >> himself i think that's sarcasm. >> yeah. no it's not. but you know, if you think about sales last year, excuse me, deliveries were basically flat to down a little bit year over year. that was one of the first years. so this year it's actually expected to be down a lot. if you look at just where q1 is tracking right now, i think consensus is calling for 420,000. i think there's independent analysis that tesla has 370, and it might be downward pressure here. we really don't know what the bottom is given this kind of backlash. so to me the fundamentals are bad. not only that we're in a price war. they are losing market share in some of these key markets like china right now. >> i mean, they've had to offer $1,000 subsidies for insurance on model three in china, but also in the middle of a model y refresh, the top selling vehicle. so they're not really producing them as they turn over to a new model of model y. so

that's also causing some headwinds for the numbers. >> but i think it was a. week ago that adam jonas of morgan stanley put a $600. >> price target on. >> the stock. so they're obviously differing opinions. >> as to. >> where this can go. i mean, i will say when they. >> reported their quarter. >> when the stock. closed around 390. >> or so. >> that quarter. >> to me suggests. >> that. >> it should be in the low 320. >> and it went higher on the back of that. >> i think it showed. >> up to 415. >> now fundamentals are starting. >> to kick in. if you go. >> back on the chart, july's high was about 250. >> that's the. >> level where it should hold and i. >> happen to think it's headed there. >> coming up, a reality check on china. why one expert warns markets haven't fully digested geopolitical risks and how he sees the tariff trade war playing out for beijing. that's when he's back in two. >> you missed a moment of fast catch us anytime on the go. follow the fast money podcast. follow the fast money podcast. we're back [sfx: wind, rain and rolling thunder] with the vision to see what's possible and the grit to make it happen,

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for automakers. the dow jumping nearly 500 points, the s&p up more than a percent and the nasdaq leading the gains up nearly 1.5%. shares of novo nordisk jumping the pharma company, saying it will offer

its blockbuster weight loss drug wegovy, through a new direct to consumer online pharmacy available to millions of patients without insurance coverage and for less than half the price of its usual monthly cost. and some after hours action tell you about marvell technology dropping despite a beat on the top and bottom line estimates guidance coming in in line with expectations. mongodb lower as well despite beating revenue estimates. non gross margins coming in a bit lighter than expected. the company also posting slower sales growth than competitor snowflake and zscaler higher after reporting eps and revenues above expectations. well china targeting economic growth around 5% this year despite growing trade tensions with the us. the estimate coming out of the national people's congress, the yearly event that is underway in china. beijing also laying out potential stimulus measures that helping shares of names like alibaba, jd, pinduoduo and baidu rally today. but our next guest is still cautious, warning the market needs a reality check on geopolitical risks. shahzad kazi is china beige books coo and managing director. shahzad,

great to have you with us. they can't stimulate the economy out of this to 5%. they can't do it this time. >> well, so right now you're not. >> getting much in the way. >> of big stimulus announcements. and i understand part of it. right. our data showed. >> you had a pretty decent january. you had. >> acceleration into february. so maybe the. >> pressure to announce something big. >> is not there right now. however, they. >> said they want to now make. >> consumer spending the growth. >> drivers the. >> number one priority. well then how. >> about you highlight something. >> how are you. >> going to. >> stimulate households. they did basically nothing on that front. >> in terms of tariffs. do you think we'll see a lot of pull forward. i mean that will probably distort the numbers that we get out of china for the time, for the near term at least. >> i think that's what's. >> going on. so you had. >> a. >> pretty good manufacturing, you know, data, data point that came out in february, for example. including a jump. >> in export orders. >> and that. >> is the pulling forward of growth because you've got that front loading effect still. >> in place, which means. >> down the road a few months down the road. >> second half of this year, that sets up a potentially. >> sour picture. for the.

>> manufacturing sector specifically. >> help us understand kind of the game theory in china. because historically, look, china, china has historically been more concerned about social control and dynamics sometimes than they have been about their economy. in a world where they're at trade war with the united states, what's more important to be tactically, you know, agile and to actually be able to respond in a trade war or actually think about their own economy. are they are they just reacting right now, or do you think they're actually playing offense on their own agenda? >> so their capacity. >> to. >> play offense is. >> pretty limited just because. >> of the fact that we import so much more and they import very little. so they can't do much, you know, so they can get a lot of tough talk out of them. >> but, you know. not much. >> in terms of action. there are other side of course is what do you do. >> to help. >> the economy. >> my guess is that they go back. >> and stimulate. >> the. manufacturing base. they go. >> back. and stimulate our help. the exporters, rather. >> than being able to make the big, bold decisions. >> on transforming their economy. >> which is what they really need. >> so shahrzad, we could be. >> seeing.

>> a scenario. >> there where the economy is what it is, you're concerned about it, but the stocks that make up the fxi, i mean, it's. >> a three. >> year high now. >> in. the fxi. >> and i think. >> tim would agree with this. i think it's just getting started. i mean, are we in that sort of paradigm shift right now? >> you could be. >> because, look, they want to have technological independence from the us and they want technological dominance, right. >> so that could power. >> a lot of these companies. >> that's where the geopolitical. >> risk comes in. if you have an administration you get very serious about outbound investment restrictions. that's obviously. >> a concern. >> export controls get amped up. that's obviously a concern. so that's where i think we have to monitor us policy and not just where beijing is going, which of course they are using the private firms to strengthen the state, which temporarily should be very positive for stocks. >> what does a deal between xi and trump look like? he talks about it. he's optimistic about eventually doing a deal. but this is eight years now. you know where we've had this level of hostility. what does the deal look like. >> look i don't know if there's a big deal to be had this time around, especially given the big failure of the phase one deal

was. so, you know, perhaps you can get china to agree to start buying. more if you want to just reduce those numbers. but if you have a desire to move supply chains out of china, if you have a desire to cut them off from high end technology, access to high end technology. i don't foresee there being a deal reached anytime soon. and let's talk about fentanyl. what promises can they possibly make and deliver? they've been promising for years, but it's not led to much. so if you hold them to the same standard, we're holding canada and mexico. a deal seems even farther out of reach. >> i'm just curious about your comments on front loading, because we, you know, investors in the us have been asking companies about this and not getting a lot of information. so how big do you think this front loading has been? how how long has it been going on in any particular industries that jump out? >> it's certainly been happening since, you know, the second half of last year. so the idea that, you know, as president trump's election chances look better. we saw it start. and of course, it's kicked off in high gear since then. the question is it about to get tapered off. are we are we done now. obviously tariffs are in place. >> shahzad thank you. shahzad

karzai of china beige book guy what do you think in terms of the stocks i think. >> they go higher. i mean we i think we've been pretty. >> consistent on this one. >> the big move. >> in baba you had a pullback i thought to get to 118. it didn't. >> it got to mid 120. it's back on its horse. >> i just. >> said. >> three year highs. i mean i think. people underestimate. >> some of the. >> talk behind this now. >> and regardless. >> of economy i think all these stocks can go significantly higher. >> be in two. as i recall it. >> is the b in tube as it turns out. you know, it's funny you say that melissa, because i was debating should it be boeing. >> or. >> right now though i chose wisely. >> well because because you knew that boeing was the b in band or blend depending on which which day it is. i like kate webb at 39. is the october 2024 high. and i think you're taking it out. remember bob has outperformed the rest of that group. but i love the setup that shahzad basically put around a lot of those other tech companies. and if you think that europe is going to outperform the or emerging markets will do a beta of one point, something to that in those emerging markets will outperform even more if the dollar is peaked and

rates have peaked and we're pushing things lower. it's a great backdrop. even without the global scare. >> our investors willing to buy china. >> you know, in my world, my meetings and again, i tend to talk more to longer term investors, but it tends to be viewed as a trade for the hedge funds as opposed to something that longer term investors really want to sink their teeth into. and unlike europe, where we are starting to see real money go back to work, you know, when i look at the funds flow data for china, it's still pretty negative. >> coming up, tariffs may be top of mind for global markets. but our next guest is still bulled up on europe. what he is seeing in the charts and the etfs he is leaning into. plus brown-forman, crowdstrike and footlocker all with big post-earnings moves in today's session. how are traders are handling the action when are handling the action when best only the servicenow platform connects every corner of your business, putting ai agents to work for people. like secret agents? no, more like autonomous minions that you control. to do what? well, jim's agents resolve simple customer issues. and patty's agents flag network problems. - proactively. - yup. i'm lovin' my agents. wait, you all have agents?

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commonly used across the retail industry to ship products. now, w.m. is collaborating with the. leading retailer to give these hard to recycle plastics a second life. see how at. >> friday, treasury secretary scott bessent crucial insights on the economy, inflation and tariff impact his message to investors. now stay ahead of the market. squawk box friday, 6 a.m. eastern. cnbc. >> welcome back to fast money. european markets are off to the races this year. etfs tracking those stocks hitting multi-year highs or records. our next guest has been bullish on this overseas play since last fall. for the technical take on europe, let's go off the charts. of course of her own partner and chief market strategist. chris, what are you seeing in the charts that keeps you so bullish? >> well. >> one of our big calls this year has been this idea that cyclicality was not being extinguished. >> globally. >> but simply it was moving east. and we know we just talked about china, but now we see it

here in europe. >> as well. >> these european. >> industrials in. >> particular are making new. highs here. the european banks as we know, have been part of the story not just for. >> a couple of months. >> but. >> frankly for 18 months. >> and when you look at the. >> fund flows, what i think is. >> particularly notable. >> is no one's there yet. >> and. you know, one thing. >> that we've always said in. >> our work, and we. >> steal this from the great marty zweig, he used. >> to always talk about how you can be philosophically bullish or actually bullish. >> with real dollars. i think people are. >> philosophically open to. >> the idea. >> of. >> being long. >> in europe. >> but. they're not. >> there with real money. >> and when you go chart by. >> chart by chart. >> ewg. >> the german. >> etf finally, after. 20 years. >> making a new. high this week, these. >> were long periods. >> of just secular stagnation where you've now seen these markets break out, in particular. >> the industrials. the banks are really. strong on the other side. >> what you. >> don't see is energy working. >> you don't. >> see basic. >> resources in the fold here. >> so to say that what's happening around the world is particularly inflationary.

>> you're not getting it from the messaging of the leadership. energy doesn't work. >> materials doesn't work. >> this is about industrials. this is about banks. >> this is about. >> financials broadly. >> can you say investors are just not there yet. and they're underweight relative to other areas. where are they over where. maybe this is too abstract of a question, but where are they relatively overweight compared to europe. because where does that money come from? >> yeah. >> i think that money has to. come from where it's gone for the last 12 or. >> 13 years. >> which. >> is max seven. okay, so that's tech. >> you know, one of the things just kind of putting this into the macro discussion, one of the things that we. >> find really notable. is us. >> large cap tech peaked relative to. >> the. s&p july 10th. what else happened. >> july 10th. >> dollar yen peaked exact. >> same day. yen has. >> driven this yen carry for 13 years. guy has driven this entire thing. >> i mean, all these. >> yen pairs are. >> back on. >> the august low. really, really important shift there. >> we talked. >> about that. there was a. >> thursday. >> a cpi day. >> and by the way. >> you know, i think. tim, one of these days. >> siemens was.

>> his final. >> two nights ago. >> guy why. >> are you yelling at me. >> why are. >> you yelling. >> you seem to need some. >> i knew it was. >> this week, i apologize. today's wednesday. >> it was. >> hyper aggressive. >> anyway, that's one. >> of. >> the biggest. components of the ewg. >> so i'm with. and if you look, i mean, to your point, we just broke through a huge double top. and, you. >> know, it looks. >> like it's off to the races now. and what's so striking about all of this is when. >> you look at the move we've seen in euro. >> usd, right. >> euro has gone from 105 to 1 zero eight here pretty quickly. look at the sentiment data on euro. there is no length from the longs. if you look at. >> the. >> surveys people are still. >> very very. >> bearish euro. >> i think. >> there's a big opportunity here not just to be long european equities or. certainly buy any pullbacks. i recognize they've they've moved a lot the last. >> several days. >> but the currency. >> here is really. >> really powerful. >> yeah. and you've been seeing this in your in your meetings. >> yeah. and look i think we really observed peak bearishness. i was in europe in december and i couldn't i didn't have a single person in entire week who was making the case for europe over the us. and usually i get a few people who want to

beat me up on that. you know, i'd be curious, though, chris, did you notice, you know, do you have any thoughts on sort of countries like germany versus france? uk because i've noticed the german flows are improving in western european equity flows are improving, but you're not really seeing the same kind of follow through with france or the uk. >> well. >> it's funny is the peripheral has been the leader here the whole time. >> right. it's been germany that's been the laggard. >> the italian. >> market, the spain. >> market have been. >> absolutely on fire. i think. >> the point you make on. sentiment really resonates with me. it was maybe the. >> first or. >> second week. >> of january. i was. >> listening to christine lagarde. >> speak at davos, and. >> she described herself as pessimistic on europe. this is the european. >> central banker describing. >> herself as pessimistic. >> i want to be long all the stocks when the central banker is. >> bearish because it tells you you have a very. >> accommodative central bank there, and you know that that was. against the backdrop of all the data starting to improve. if you. >> look at the economic surprise index in europe. >> it looks very different than. ours here. so i don't. >> think cyclicality is extinguished globally. it moved from. >> here and it moved east. >> we see it in china. >> we see. >> it in europe as well.

>> chris thanks. good to see you chris. strategies coming up, some fast movers from today's session catching our attention. how are traders are handling the moves in brown-forman, crowdstrike and footlocker. that is next. and here's a sneak peek at the cramer cam. jim is chatting exclusively with the ceo of hasbro. catch the full interview. top of the hour on mad money. more fast money in mad money. more fast money in two. ♪ something amazing is happening here. data is bringing creativity to life. that's because cdw showed animation studios new ways to maximize their infrastructure, then built a flexible dell technologies data solution. more automation led to greater efficiency, which means creativity stays the star of the show. make amazing happen. dell technologies and cdw. currently valued at $30 million?

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>> that's my. secret to. >> odor control. >> everywhere. >> southern gal. so, i mean, i know these things. >> okay, we're. >> on air. we are. we're on. obviously, we talked during the breaks anyway. welcome back to fast money. a couple of fast movers catching your eye today. let's start off with brown-forman. the jack daniel's maker buzzing higher after beating analyst expectations this morning. but the company still noting volatility in its operating environment citing geopolitical uncertainties and global macro economic conditions. tim you flagged this one. >> yeah, i think if you look at all the spirits companies and it's also a morning where you saw some of the ratings agencies talking about where the tariff imports impacts were certainly going to be higher for some of these spirits companies, brown-forman and diageo. and you can make an argument, you know, a handful of the other ones have really been priced to the detriment of margin and their business over the last couple of years, including china. this is a story that actually isn't a value play yet, but i think there's earnings acceleration. margins are better. this was a big surprise. i think there's more to go. >> all right. take a look at

shares of crowdstrike the cybersecurity stock down nearly 6.5% after last night's disappointing guidance. it's now down nearly 20% since hitting a record just last month. dan. >> yeah. the stock rallied 35% from its january lows. it was just off to the races and it's retraced that entire move. this thing was trading down much more on the opening. it had a good comeback. so to me i just think there's a lot of stocks that actually overshot a little bit. and it didn't take too much fundamental news or bad fundamental news to have the whole move. >> now, what do you make of this move, guy? >> if you look at. >> where crowdstrike. >> was last july. >> went from about 370 to. >> 230 in. >> a. >> day and a half, two. days on the back of the news that we heard, it recovered the entire move. >> traded above 400. >> now it's traded back to the level. >> we broke down from. >> this should be huge support right here. i actually think you buy crowdstrike at this level. >> by the way don't miss the ceo of crowdstrike. that's on mad money tonight 6 p.m. eastern time right here on cnbc. and rounding it all out, footlocker rising as much as 13% after this morning's earnings beat. shares closed off the highs but still up more than 5%. the athletic

retailer posting same store sales growth that topped expectations for the quarter. shares though, just where they were about two weeks ago. but still, you would think that they would be facing tariff pressures, consumer uncertainty. et cetera. and here they are up 5%. >> been a horrible. >> performer though. but look. >> at where we traded down in august of 2023. look at where we recently traded down to. i think technically if chris were here i'm good by the guests. i'm not bringing him back, but there's a major double bottom to trade against. i actually think you can be long footlocker here. >> how much do you discount the commentary about uncertainty in all of these? i mean, it seems like a freebie for companies to say, oh, it's uncertain geopolitical tariffs, etc. so we're uncertain. >> you know, it's it should give them a free pass to just kind of come out and get everything potentially bad out there. but i actually think it's been the opposite. i haven't looked at this one in particular, but companies in general have not wanted to say all that much. the last like month or so. it has been the weirdest year ahead reporting season i've ever seen where it's, you know, we've seen the optimism be eclipsed by uncertainty. and it wasn't

really even until february 1st. we got companies even willing to talk about the mexico and canada tariffs. so there's just not as much detail as you would think coming out. >> all right. up next final >> all right. up next final trades. when emergency strikes, first responders rely on the latest technology. that's why t-mobile created t-priority built for the 5g era. only t-priority dynamically dedicates more capacity for first responders. your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. our advanced matching helps find talented candidates, so you can connect with them fast. visit indeed.com/hire poverty. >> farmers are highly. >> dependent on rainfall, but water is scarce with drought.

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disrupt an entire industry. next, selling stock symbol and excel. >> you know. >> those fat. >> hoka sneakers? >> nice shoes, but the price not. >> as nice. however, skechers max cushioning. >> are just as. >> fabulous at a price that blows. >> them away. get insane comfort and cushioning. >> including hands free skechers slippers. try skechers max cushioning next. >> i don't want to. >> be a hard dick in a market that's gaga. >> for nvidia, but i think bonds. >> represent safety in a. >> world where the president, not inflation. >> has become the chief impediment to higher stock prices. too many companies can be tariffed. there's just way too. >> much fear. >> mad money next cnbc. >> final trade time. dan. nathan. >> yeah. >> brian mentioned marty zweig. great book, winning on wall street. we get asked for recommendations all the time. >> all right. >> tim. >> this european outperformance is going to continue. i think you don't necessarily have to be just in the industrials. i look at novartis, which is world class and outperforming. >> lori calvasina of rbc. >> utilities reasonably valued and defensive. >> great to have you here tonight, lori. guy it's okay to

have you, by the way. >> tim, thought. >> you threw a baby ruth. >> at me. >> in the break. >> and it was you know, i. >> was sorry. >> i put it on your desk for you to eat, and you threw it right out of. >> baby ruth. i appreciate the message. crunch, love. >> anyway, do you have a trade? >> general motors, day two. >> all right. thanks for watching. fast. mad money with jim cramer starts right now. >> my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey i'm cramer, welcome to mad money. >> welcome to cramerica. other people make friends. >> i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is. not just. >> to entertain but. >> also to educate. so call me at one 800. >> 743 cnbc or tweet me quiver. sometimes. sometimes the stock market is so brilliant that you just have to accept its judgments. other times it's dumb. >> as a bag of hammers. >> at this momhe