nasdaq down 332 points s&p. >> let's get a final. >> check 71. >> points on on the markets. yes joe go for it. sure. >> give it to us. >> you got you're doing yours. no. the nasdaq's got worse. obviously i can't say why, but it's been. let's see. what was friday? friday was good. monday was horrible. tuesday. i can't even remember now, but it's like multiple hundreds each day either. either up or down. i think it was good to go along with mccormick. totally. totally worth it. we don't need commercials. we don't need no stinking commercials. we'll see what management says about that. squawk on the street is up right after a quick break. >> and we're back. good thursday morning. welcome to squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. futures are a bit soft

as these economic worries seep further into retail earnings. like macy's and the challenger layoff data a number we don't watch a lot, but it. >> is the. >> highest figure since july of 2022. your yields drop. >> to 3.96. >> this morning. a row that begins with tariffs and the sell off of wall street. and corporate leaders now digesting all the news that's coming out of the white house. >> plus the. doge effect on the larger market. carl just mentioned it. >> challenger, gray and christmas says u.s. employers. announced the largest. >> number of. >> monthly layoffs. since 2020, with one third attributed to elon musk's efforts to slash the federal workforce. >> and the eye trade is also. >> in the spotlight. >> marvell is. >> down sharply. >> that's weighing. >> on. >> the chip sector. >> despite posting quarterly. >> results above. >> what were at. >> least the. >> consensus of analysts. >> let's get right to the markets back in sell off mode after the rally yesterday. jim, we've got claims, we've got productivity, the trade deficit. and we haven't even talked about marvell yet. >> right. and remember, there's weather. i think weather is really important. it was cold or

snowy or raining in all these months that we've had. and so therefore the forecasts are bad. there's a saying in, in, in among the tough guys. and they have to do with the history of frank slootman, who was the guy who took servicenow, where it went to. he was also a guy who took snowflake, which is doing quite well. and i once argued with him because the forecast was downbeat. and you said, jim, the forecast is the forecast. that's what marvell did last time. forecast is the forecast. and david, people are taking these forecasts as gospel. they're saying everything is slowing down. the only forecast race today. do you know what it is? i'll give you a hint. you can get pie with cheese and vanilla ice cream on top. and it's damn great. when i was 210 pounds, i feasted on and the answer is cracker barrel. cracker barrel. it's the only one where they got up today. only one. so everyone. >> shillington stores. >> wasn't bad. oh, yeah, that's

pipe rack. okay, i'm talking about just of the of the companies i look at that were startling. burlington. burlington never misses. it's an amazing company. i that what. >> we're looking at marvell which. >> is getting which is. >> getting slammed. >> what i thought that was great stuff. nevermind. that was good. i have good i just. >> moving on from. >> ice cream and. >> the line from marvell that dropped tell me. >> read it to me. >> so matt, who am i? matt murphy, who is so great. i've had on multiple times he go, he basically saying, how am i getting hit here? and because he sees the stock going down and he goes, all right. there were some i assumptions that were made. and what he really was saying was, okay, imagine a world where the sequential growth is not enough. you've got 25% growth q2 to q3, you have 25% q3 to q4, and you have double digit growth q4 to q1. the forecast is the forecast. he says, listen, i'm not going to do 20. i'll do better than ten. people reacted as if it was the end of the world, and this stock is now selling instead of 48 times

earnings. it's selling at 24 times earnings 24. i thought. >> it. >> was around 3290. >> well you got 26 right 26. >> now it's. >> now it's down. >> a lot right. and it was at 32 times. >> next i'm going to just make a bold statement. what's going on right now is a total reevaluation of the stock market and individual stocks. we are saying we are going to pay less for that company than when it didn't have i. it's going to have $2.5 billion of ai this year, and it's valued at the same that it was going to have 200 million in ai. that's how ai is hated. the underlying theme is not data center. it's ai is hated. and that's how that's how nvidia can go from 118 to 113 in ten minutes. >> right. but a lot all. of this has to do with the with how much. >> is. >> being spent in the data center and how much will continue to be. it's 75%. >> of their. >> revenues come from the data center. >> yeah. they do they do custom. they do custom. >> no, i understand that. >> but they got the they got the

amazon contract. nobody cares. i remember that the biggest contract in the business, nobody cared about marvell. >> just to put it in perspective, this. >> is. >> the broader. >> concern about some sort of slowdown that. >> we have. >> yet. >> to really see. >> signs of. >> wow, you just translated me, i you rest your case. >> i don't i mean. >> he's got it. he's got it. i'm meaningless. >> if the forecast were the opposite, if the forecast were super bullish, would you be as skeptical as you are about this? >> at this point, i would say i don't believe you. now we're going to hear broadcom tonight. that's hock tan. he's legendary. he does the same thing as marvell i sorry matt i don't want to make you. he does a lot of other stuff but they do some. >> they have similar. >> markets similar markets. and they do the custom chips. and if and hock tan if he's conservative but the stock is already down and we get a bounce. voila. the sell off will have found its level. so we need to see him cut. we need to see him down beat. and we need to

see the stock not go down. that's the that is the recipe for how this group is going to bottom and bounce. but i don't know. >> well jim, i asked any. number of people this morning. why are we why are we getting crushed in the nasdaq. you know, why are we down so much. >> and those. >> people get. >> watch this. >> give me an answer. because i didn't get a consistent answer at all. i mean, general worries about trade. >> maybe marvell's. >> numbers, but nothing specific. >> okay, well, it's. >> this large a potential. >> well, did. >> you see this at the open? >> we got to go to the ft story about if. >> you want. >> to go. >> there right now. >> well, no, because you want to go. >> there right away. >> everyone believed it that microsoft. >> i know. we're going to wait a little bit. >> the only reason i say is, okay, look, i'm just trying to give you a bill of particulars. why people are scared to death. >> i mean, actually. >> if we. >> think it's important, we think it's important. >> you want to talk about it. i don't have to reference core. all i'm saying is that that's an integral part. you get some story that's denied, and then it doesn't matter. no one even cares about the denial. i don't either. >> we are going to get to court.

we have this ftc story. >> that. questions whether. >> microsoft is going. >> to. >> spend as much. >> as has been. >> seen, or are we. >> just denying we're going to we'll get deeper into this. >> this is a huge. >> upcoming ipo and certainly as well reflective of sort. >> of sentiment overall. >> you destroy the ipo. you want to get the ipo canceled, you start the s-1 says, listen, one of our biggest customer doesn't like us anymore and thinks we're sloppy and we don't. and they're discontinuing. how would you like to buy my stock? yeah, let me tell you who's ever doing that stock right now. he better go to cracker barrel, get himself one of them pies with ice cream and cheese. >> certainly worthy of. some time from us, because. >> you imagine the existential crisis. that guy? >> yeah. >> no, it's not good. i put myself in their shoes this morning, and then i said, wow, i'm glad i wear rockports because it's kind of like the red shoes in the story of the red shoes. >> no. >> the executioner cuts the feet off. >> your point about microsoft, though, jim, more broadly, it is the only mag seven name that is negative year on year. >> oh my god. well microsoft missed. it's the third miss now. i love amy hood, the cfo, but it's been the third miss in a

row. you got a guy out there marc benioff from salesforce. if you talk to him he goes how are you doing? copilot is a fraud. first of all, i'm good. my family's fine. you didn't hear what i said about copilot. i mean, i don't want one of the largest software as a service people. the third, you know, one of the greatest success stories in the world, who actually comes on mad money and says, listen, copilot is a fraud. then every time i start my pc up in the morning, it's got some it's like, oh, people who work in the alps also use copilot to imagine what suzanne's doing. i mean, will you give me? i don't want that. >> meantime, jim, yesterday at this time, we were talking specifically about the autos. and yesterday afternoon we get this push on autos for a month. and this notion of carve outs for ag. how much is all that worth right now? >> nothing versus what phil lebeau said this morning, which is the delinquencies on auto are just the highest they've been, what, since 2007? i mean, 3%. the fed has to wake up and

recognize they may cut because the forces are aligning carl to be one of the more negative periods. and if you're the president, there's going to come a moment where here's what's going. president is going to say, get me that german thing. what's the how's germany doing? how's france doing? they're doing great. yeah. how's we doing? not doing well at all. what do you think? i mean. >> it is interesting to note. >> the german. >> market, european markets overall, by the way, the. >> hang. >> seng china all doing really well. >> well, how about us? >> not good. we can we. >> can eat. >> i think. >> we can even show. >> that chart. we're trying to spend less. >> i can. >> think well i mean i wouldn't sure that the german numbers are so, so in other words. well, yeah, we've become a giant of a stock market. we are the walmart white house guys. >> that's this morning. can we see it does put it does put it in. >> perspective every day. lower stock prices right. i mean at some point the president is going to say get me, get me something that this germany thing, the italy does. >> he want to see our ten year

do with their ten year did yesterday biggest one day gain since reunification. >> all i know is that there's going to come a moment where the president is going to say, you know what, we're doing real well here. we're going to keep doing real well. i will not have our stock market be as bad as it is versus germany. what's it versus italy? how about what is versus those countries he made fun of? or in the state of union, remember, like you had some countries that he didn't think were countries. >> it is notable. >> how are they doing versus us better? the differential is now starting to irritate. it has the white house has to be censored. you can. >> put that. >> up against. >> i up against. >> i'm proud of our country. i want to see us be this bad. >> i put it up against china. >> it's not just about firing people to veterans administration. >> no. although there are going to be a lot, of. lot of layoffs. >> that the. >> veterans that this that that gets us to challenger jim. i mean, a lot of this is the challenger is a an aggregation of announcements of layoffs. yeah. so a lot of this is going to be doge. but if you put it up year to date, it's the worst

since zero nine. no, it is the worst february since. >> the great recession. that's not going to help our stock market. but look, the information today, i mean, i do my morning memo about what what i'm looking at. and other than cracker i had i had 20 okay. and burlington. all right. burlington i had 24 different things, of which there were two that were positive and 22 that were negative. that's the most negatives i've ever had. i've been doing this thing since 2005. there's but the president, like we had that pain. remember he mentioned that this is pain time. >> a little disturbance. yes. how he. >> put it this time. it's all right. no. like we can't i'm sorry. we can't get the wheels down on the plane, but we're following the runway, so we're fine. all right, let's not overstate it. >> we're not. we're not even in correction territory. >> i mean. >> that's what he's saying. come on. right now he's saying. >> sweater caps. small caps are down 15. >> right. well, i'm just saying that these other countries, these lilliputians that we have to go into, i would. >> not characterize china as a lilliputian. >> in. any way.

>> you're not the president, by the way. >> take a look. >> at alibaba. >> what happened? >> i mean, that stock has gone parabolic. >> he must think he thinks about alibaba. >> jd today, best sales. >> growth in. >> three years. >> alibaba knows. >> their story though about how china's could lose to us. >> is back to. >> you know that. >> they've got a rival for deep seek. >> which is their. >> domestic rival so to speak. in terms of i. >> suddenly stanford suddenly stanford's a hack school. >> they're talking about a reasoning model. it said rivals cutting edge reasoning model from deep sea. and, you know, apparently again is back to sort of using different parameters, but doing it in a somewhat different way and achieving impressive results. >> right. >> but also in math and coding. >> okay. well, look, i think it's the president discoloring the negativity. and all i'm saying is, yes, we don't have a bear market. the dow is not all the russell the dow's he likes the dow as an indicator. it's not down enough for him to say wait a second. but is there is such a thing as ego and as an

american i am looking at france and germany and italy. i'm looking at hong kong. i don't want to look at argentina, for all i know, but i'm looking at these countries and i'm saying, are we really this bad? >> the average drawdown for the s&p in any given year is down 13. we've done six. yeah. so i mean is it really is now really the time to worry? i know. >> i think that i'm more concerned about hegemony, stature, our ability to be able to say we're the best in the world when it comes to everything. well, i can tell you, we may be the best in wall and everything, but we're not in the stock market now. is that because of. >> upsetting you? >> it's upsetting me. well, no. i am saying that this market is horrible. everyone's negative. and then i listened to the jd and i said, why am. >> i. >> up today? what am i doing in macy's? i could be in jd, you know what i mean? >> hey, bloomingdale's comps up six. >> well that's because tony's

great. okay, look, this is another one. carl. tony's great. >> tony is great. >> well, i got a dog named tony. what are you implying? >> i don't know, i just have no idea. >> okay, okay. so i just want to tell you there's a company called macy's. you probably shop there. yes. >> i'm aware of it. >> actually, i did. >> shop there recently at bloomingdale's. >> tony spring, how great is it? it looks great. doesn't have a personal shopper. i'll share with you during the break. thank you. so, bloomies is doing great. tony spring is from bloomington. all right. he is organizing a turn to beat the band. the numbers were good. really good for the first time in the holiday season. but what does he do? and i love him. i mean, i love it, communicate with him. he's absolutely terrific. he gave you a forecast that was so horrible that you have to sell macy's is that's why the stock's down. it was a great quarter david. no one cares. he said. he said we're going to do 12 to $0.15 versus $0.28 that the street's looking for. but why do we know i get it. the forecast. >> the broader broader subject. >> here, nobody cares.

>> i know it's tariffs. it's the concern ultimately about what that's going to mean for the economy. >> and what what will you. >> pay off and on nature and just never know know nature nature of the of the debate. >> and the increased isolationism. jim, we got three stories today. one is about canadians not traveling to the u.s. this year. we got their liquor stores pulling u.s. liquor. >> that's the kind of thing jack daniels is worse. >> that was. >> that was that was. >> we got doug ford, the premier of ontario, pulling the starlink deal, the second biggest market for starlink. >> well, there's. >> i mean, meanwhile. >> 25% tariffs on canada. >> is going to be horrible for. >> their economy. it's going to crush. >> yeah. why would they come here. why would they pull ryan reynolds. he's like the greatest. >> call ryan reynolds. >> is that great. >> is that the phone call we need to make. above all others? >> you know what? yes. >> okay. >> this is this is a celebrity presidency. do we have. we don't have this canadian thing. i think that there could be. and i'm not kidding. you know, lumber is going to be at stake

here. lumber. and we have all the homebuilder stocks down. that's something they provide. they provide lumber. >> they do a lot. >> a lot of they're like the swing state. they're not the 51st. >> swing state. >> you're going. >> down that road. >> brown brown form. you pull jack daniels i remember france tried to do that stuff at one point. do they know what it means to us? >> i don't. >> know, it's. it's it. >> used to be. >> when you get a. >> majority leader state. >> kentucky, but. >> a little more like. >> jazzed up. this stuff is happening in real time. >> it's got. >> so. >> much going on. >> in. >> real time it. >> is hard. >> to keep track. >> but no, we're fine. >> it's all good. >> it's all good. what am i talking about? got it. yeah. germany. it's inflated that it's all phony. it's all phony. >> what's all phony? >> germany. italy doing better than us. now, david, i'm trying to create what? the white house, what they're thinking. the war room right now. >> oh, is there. >> a war room? >> there's no. >> fighting in the war room.

>> oh, thank you, stanley kubrick. we'll get a quick break here. take a look at the pre market. definitely some weakness. we'll get to some movers. another bearish call on tesla smi hims zscaler and tree in a minute. >> they removed. >> basically american. >> not. >> just beverage alcohol but a lot of american made products have come off. the shelves in canada which is tough. >> i mean. >> that's worse than. >> a tariff. >> because it's literally taking your sales. away. completely removing these our products from the shelves. you know, that's a. >> very disproportionate response to a. >> 25% tariff. on the number of public companies. >> is shrinking. >> while the number of private companies. >> is. >> increasing. >> at franklin templeton. >> we're expanding. >> access to the. growing opportunity in private. >> markets. >> offering the potential for greater diversification and. >> enhanced returns. through our

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the. >> show about marvell earnings. >> and that stock looking down sharply. >> mongodb is the. >> feature of the mad dash. and it's another stock. >> that's getting annihilated. >> annihilated down 20%. now people are saying this is the worst this enterprise software company has ever seen. now this is what i'm talking about. they had a great quarter. i mean, firing on all cylinders. really terrific. their outlook at one moment and one piece of their business they say is bad. there are headwinds. something's wrong. and, david, we had a downgrade from a very good firm. i've been you know wedbush has got a piece not let me look let me look. keybanc has got the best. yeah. they take it from buy to hold. and they say this the past several quarters lowered the visibility in the meaningful margin expansion and revenue recognition. in other words, re acceleration. so here's what people are saying. everything that you've heard is passed. going forward. there will be no revenue acceleration going forward. there will be no margin expansion. so going forward there will be no pe expansion. so going forward we're going to pay a lot less now. just so you know i mean

people don't know what they do i'll just summarize it. they what they do is they take software to help you organize and interrogate web based data. and it actually did quite well. okay. there was cannibalization from one bit. one little part. this is to step back. this says if you have one not in what you just did, but in your forecast. people say it's over. it's over. right. >> or it's. >> reflective of the market sentiment. >> right now. right. >> and that's why. >> when does that change, jim, and what changes it? >> okay, i hate to say this. this is what i said in club. >> people. >> but changes in lower prices. you got to wait till it goes lower. and then we get through the quarter and realize. >> their. >> their countervailing factors because management's not statue here. they're not statues. they see this. they don't want to be sacked. they're going to say, listen, we're going to do a different d. that's what happens. >> all right. >> we got an opening bell just five minutes away. don't go anywhere.

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about whether or not the u.s. is on the cusp of a recession. one model that's been making the rounds a lot this week is jp morgan's markit implied model of a recessionary downturn. it was 17% in november. on tuesday, it was 31%, jim. and they break it down by various markets. base metals, for example, would imply much more likelihood than, say, high yield credit, right? >> it's funny that base metals i mean some of those go into data center, some go into big infrastructure, and some of them go into autos. and i think when you look at the vast panoply of the stock market, you've got housing of what our economy is. we have retail, which is switched to being not bad, but horrible. we've got manufacturing, which is slowing down rather dramatically. we've got housing which is completely miserable and somewhat ignited by lower rates, i don't know. and then we just have government, which is we're finding has got a lot of jobs that are being cut off. and by the way, a guy who fires fired from the government is not going

to go work on goldman sachs. >> right? so when bentsen today talks to the new york economic club, do you expect him to say we are focused on getting the ten year yield lower? >> no, i think he's going to say we have to we have to focus on trade deficits with other countries. once we've worked that out, then we can look at that. i don't think it's nearly as important as the president thinks. i worry very much about a government mandated recession. government mandated recession. and, david, yeah. >> there would. >> not be even talk about this if it weren't for the. fact the president said. >> look. >> not a focus, not. >> a focus. >> i've made the point. >> a number of times. when you spoke to him a couple. >> of months. >> back, whenever that. >> was. >> and you asked. >> about. >> the stock market. >> he did. >> not. >> give the. >> characteristic trumpian answer. >> no, he doesn't. >> at. >> the time. >> even then. >> he said. >> well, he said, markets go up and down in a way. so, you know. >> i thought that was notable at

the time. >> what what is cared about fentanyl, immigration. and by the way, i actually care i, i totally understand what he's doing. all i'm trying to do is get people to be able to be positioned for it. i hate fentanyl. i think the immigration, the border, a border has to be maintained. i'm not sitting here and saying, i wish he weren't thinking these are the priority. i love the priorities. but you have to adjust the priorities if you're in the stock market. >> meantime, here, 5765 jim would give us about, say, 35 points to the 200 day, which has been support for a year and a half. >> but let's use i don't know if we can get a marvell chart for the last two years, but marvell represents tech, which of course is the most important part of the stock market. and what you just said, carl, is, i think, what's in play that's in play. the 200, i think it's important and it's in play because everybody's so negative. matt boss at jp morgan has some incredible data. well, if that's you see that that rally began

when they affiliated themselves with the with the darkest hole in this entire market right now, which is nvidia. the stock, not the company. matt. boston, this work which showed you a great credit data that he's got credit card from jp morgan, that the real weakness is just was weather in the places that didn't have bad weather did really terrific. but nobody cares. nobody nvidia down four. david look at that. >> i guess i see. >> it jim. >> nvidia is down. amd is down. >> mac seven were all down. >> tesla's down. almost 4%. >> i mean again we're. >> a two minutes into trading. we'll see. >> but yeah we're we're having a significant sell off in any of those names. >> yeah that's. >> some pain. there's a little bit of pain. >> and the president's not looking at that because it's not look we're not down. maybe we're down 15%. it might catch us on. what? what? it's a mandate. it's mandated. the negativity is mandated. it's mandated. these people come up with these forecasts. they're not based on on how good things are. they're based on the jack daniels in

canada. they're based on tariffs in germany. they're based on the fact that the japanese get a free ride, because the tariffs are only 2.5%. and our companies. i mean, you think jim farley right now of ford, he's saying, you know what. great. we got a month right. well again. >> again we. >> got to focus on april. >> 2nd as. >> well when that's when. >> the. >> reciprocity goes into effect. or at least we're going to hear about what. >> may ultimately. >> go into. >> effect in. >> terms of much broader tariffs. >> on all. >> of our trading partners, or. >> at least those. >> who have higher tariffs. >> than we do. at present. >> well, look american express okay. gallagher. yes, i know that business is good. i know the credit is good, right? but what does the market think the market is thinking? travel and leisure is going down. so same thing with royal caribbean, the largest cruise line. they're doing fabulously, but no one cares. no one in the stock market thinks this can last. >> well, now you're getting to the fact that ten the top 10% of american earners do 49% of the

spend, right? so i wonder if you're beginning to think about the wealth effect, if stocks were to put in a, put in a meaningful decline. >> most definitely. carl. i think that people right now are reevaluating everything and they're. >> trying vacations. >> yeah, i do. >> discretionary spend. >> look, don't be wrong. there's 75% of the people think that what the president is doing is terrific. and he did win. and he won all the swing states 75%. >> where'd you. >> come up. >> with that number? >> i heard it this morning on our air. they had it on air, i was watching i watched the squawk before us. okay. 75%. they got the treasury secretary tomorrow. >> yes they do. >> there was someone looking. >> forward to that. >> said, listen, 75% of the people are very much in favor of what i think is frank luntz. but i don't say. but that's what i heard this morning. >> frank luntz, republican pollster. >> well, there you go. >> yeah. >> okay, great. but all i'm saying is, is that i'm looking at the forecast and the company and the companies that are doing the forecast, and there are a

lot of them are where well, people shop and they're making forecasts that are negative. that's what's going on in the last 48 hours. i only cracker barrel seems to think cracker barrel ross ross was a little negative. new ceo. >> kroger up 2% leading the s&p today. >> kroger. kroger. >> they're still shopping at kroger. >> they're still shopping. >> we still. >> don't know. why rodney. >> mcmullen was. >> was fired. >> he had to focus. >> on that. >> what do you mean focus. >> on it? >> everybody's still asking. >> that question. >> don't act like that's not the case. >> it was on the front page of the cincinnati enquirer. >> i'm actually. how do you dismiss the guy? >> i'm actually joking. >> it's not. >> company related. it's not a person related. >> it's not financial related. well, what was it? >> i'm being i'm joking because i spend probably a quarter of my time trying to find out. and let me just tell you, i had a call from a secondary source my wife was on. i talked to her in three days. i said, listen, i got to put you on hold. you still got it? i just forgot about it. >> you still got nothing? >> nothing. >> i tell you, nobody know. but i've been trying. >> knows. >> no one's been trying harder than i am. i believe that to be

true. my personal number. i believe. >> that to be true. >> now, kroger had good, good numbers. do you think those don't belong to rodney? >> no. of course. those are rodney's numbers, right? >> they're not. they're not ron sergeant's number. the new ceo. the interim. >> interim ceo. >> no, it's not right. >> no. >> i want to give rodney credit where credit is due, but i just like where's waldo? >> we don't know. >> there's ron. >> sergeant harvard went to harvard. >> oh that's great. good for him. >> when people call me, you know, like they'll say. and jim, you got to tell you, you went to harvard. i think my school is a disgrace. i could care less about it. i like alan garber, new president. >> you do? >> okay. >> but no. what happened? i like i was worried about getting getting security. i wanted to speak up there, jim. most dangerous place on earth for me. >> right behind kroger. >> is mosaic. and i wonder if you think these ag carveouts are going to be real, or are farmers going to get subsidies like we did when we had phase one? yeah. >> the fertilizer market is a terrible market historically.

and just, you know, usually because of supply, not demand. i know that the farm equipment right now is doing quite well. there are people who have a bull. there's bulls and bears on deere, the agco ceo. and agco is a really good company called the bottom on my show. and that's a very aggressive thing to do. and i begged him not to do it. i said, please don't call the bottom. and he called the bottom. and that is something that you don't do idly. you don't just say, you know what, i think we're involved, so you might want to i don't want to buy mosaic because mosaic is a total commodity, okay? most commodity, most commoditized product of any product in the world. fertilizer even more. yeah, but. >> a. >> lot. >> of potash. >> comes from canada. >> 80% of it for us. >> farmers is going to make things more expensive, potentially, unless they get exemptions. i'm not even sure what's being exempted or not. so do you. >> think, do you think mexican beer? >> what about labatt? that's all you worry. >> you want exemptions for?

>> for mezcal? >> how about just one mezcal? >> there you. >> go, by the way. not impossible. >> we took the darn hit. we've already, we've already, we've already accrued for. >> say. >> some nice things. and that explains the trade deficit in january, a record 130 plus billion dollars. >> shipped as much as we could ahead of the tariffs, which was a lot. right. this is for. shipped ahead of the time. and we got it in the texas warehouse. yep. and we want to play the tariff. we've asked every great lawyer we can find accounting. no one knows what to do. so we just we put it in a lockbox so that we're ready for the tariff. there you go. >> how long will that last? >> you. >> how long? >> how long. >> can that inventory. >> we've got? we have three quarters of our year in there. >> wow. >> well, we can't. >> say that it ages well or stores. >> well, let things go. >> well, this is what people are doing. the tariff is. >> horrible, without a doubt. a lot of people, a lot. >> of people, a lot. >> of businesses pre ordered without. >> you didn't you're bozo. >> and then. >> that will have a depressive effect. >> to a certain extent and future orders. but then you're going to. >> start to. >> get hit. >> potentially with i mean you

know as real life. i mean it's your what we call profit margin guys. >> i did want to mention. >> tesla another. >> day, another negative report. this time. >> it's bad. >> deliveries qanon deliveries too high adding bearish fresh picked. not sure. >> the research. >> really matters. >> at this. >> point but the stock is down. >> seen i think it's. >> down. >> 34 plus percent for the year. >> the key man risk identified. >> yes. >> and what do you think that key man risk really is. is it about how we need tesla needs musk? or is the key man about how unpopular he might be about in a certain cohort that likes, that cares about the environment? >> that's a good question. >> meantime, musk at morgan stanley yesterday pitching the idea of privatizing the postal service and amtrak. although the postal service is article one, section eight in the constitution that might require some guidance from congress? >> yeah. what is that, the constitution guidance? >> congress. >> what are you talking about? >> that's commerce clause. >> you think you're. living in.

>> the only thing that matters in that whole damn thing is the article two is the amendment two. amendment two. yeah. second amendment. >> yes. that's it. >> you're you're you're right, i am. >> you are. >> well, so is the vice. so was the vice president. >> yes. >> democrat party. >> yes. >> just in my family. i'm going hunting two weekends. you want to join me? no, no i don't. we're killing innocent things that are really small. they fly. >> on the. >> they come from orvis. that's okay. they're bred by orvis. >> yeah. >> they breed. >> them to. >> grow them. >> to fly them, to. shoot them. >> all right, let's talk. about us. >> let's talk about core. >> we've. >> because we mentioned it at the top. >> of the show. no, i don't have it. i think it's. >> important to mention this is. >> you know, we've talked about the ipo market needing a big moment to get things going and. this is the name. >> that many. >> have been focused on core. >> we've key to. >> the to. >> one of the hyperscalers. >> that's out there obviously and. >> growing at a. very fast.

>> rate obviously also has a. >> great deal of financing. given what it's been. >> doing in terms of. >> putting up. >> those data centers and servicing the. >> likes of. >> its client. >> base. >> which is the largest. >> of which is microsoft. >> right. >> i'll show you some of the numbers because they did file the s-1. we don't have a date yet on the ipo. but it's a very important test. >> case for the. >> market because it is. a growth company at the center, of course, of so much of what investors. >> care about right now, >> i data center and there's an ft report. >> saying microsoft. >> has walked away from some core commitments ahead of the. >> ipo. >> which could. raise as much. >> as. $4 billion value. the company as much as 35 billion, got some big investors there. magnetar, for example, home run for them. they lent the money. some other big names that we're all. >> aware of in the private. >> community in terms. >> of investing in private companies. >> jim, the response from core, we've to the ft story was the following.

>> we pride. >> ourselves on our client partnerships. >> there have. >> been no contract cancellations. or walking away from commitments. any claim to the contrary is false and misleading. >> that said. >> if any of this is true, you're probably going to delay the ipo. >> yeah, that's exactly right. >> really rough. and i did talk to one of the big, you know. investors in it. and it's like yeah if it's true now they. >> didn't even know either. >> so right. >> we'll see i think microsoft represents as much. >> as 60 plus percent. >> of their business at this point. and again we come back to it in part because it is sort of one of those one of those big moments we've been waiting for in the ipo market. there's a look at some of the fundamentals for the company. obviously a lot. >> of. >> debt because it costs a lot of money to put these things up. losing money, yes, but growing enormously as well. >> linchpin, linchpin to the entire complex. and david, i asked the pr people, it's not just that they can deny the story. there's a line in here that would be in the s-1. have they missed deadlines? have they

missed delivery issues? are they really? because that's what it's not just the fact that microsoft might may not be maybe walking away. it's also, according to the. ft again. >> denied by core. >> we've and we've heard nothing. we've called microsoft. >> we've gotten no no response. >> as i'm aware of at this point. >> david, this is if i can't if i'm i don't know, we got a new sec. but i wouldn't bring this deal after this. >> you wouldn't. >> bring this. >> deal, would not? no. yeah. i wait till the stink is gone. maybe six months from now, right? >> when you're questioning. >> the commitment. >> of your. largest customer. >> it's a problem. >> it's certainly. >> david. this is for. >> what you're hoping to raise. >> you got that award last? i like the award you got. so i'm going to put something to you. >> thank you. what is it? >> would you run this story if you had it the way that they have it? well, knowing that sabotages the most important. if i knew it was absolutely. >> true and could not be in any way disputed, i would go with it because it's an. >> important story. sources. would you get both sides? yes. >> of course you talk to both sides. >> but frankly, as i've said many times, senior journalist,

it doesn't number of sources doesn't matter. it's the quality of the. >> put the denial. would you've gotten all the court. we perhaps got their denial before the story ran. yes. not after. so that we're talking about it now. okay. that's all i want a long conversation. i rest my case. >> about it. >> because you know how important it is, right? and you would attest. >> and i love the ft. that's why it was so devastating. >> but let's see, because the ft is a. >> well regarded. >> publication and this is an important story. so that's why we share it with you. we don't have a chart. for you because of course it's not a public company yet. but carl, we are waiting for these ipos. they've yet to show up. >> this was going to be the good one carl. and then everyone else was going to bring deals. it's almost as if this was if someone had to say how do i stop the killing? >> you always question is there something makes sense? and it's not like it's not like, you know, microsoft's not the kind of company that necessarily does something like this or not particularly vituperative. it's not. and by the way, what do they gain? that's not clear to me. they're gaining anything now. we know that they're changing their relationship with

microsoft, with openai. that is true. >> we know that. and softbank is moving. >> into a much more important role for openai in terms. >> of helping. >> to fund its incredibly ambitious plans. but that's not necessarily related. >> specifically to why you would if you were. >> microsoft immediately went to a bunch of analysts after this. i said, what is this going to do? even with the denial? and they all said the same thing, which is no one will care about the denial. the denial will not be regarded as anything serious. this charge is incredibly bad. and now the ipo market is going to be finished. all part of the same weave, so to speak. >> well, we've been talking about one of the biggest ipos of the year so far, venture global bgi had the high the first day of 25. it's a ten. >> there were. >> a. >> lot. >> of questions. >> there are a lot of questions. >> about that about that company. i mean, we asked some of them of the ceo when he joined us. carl. >> not a loved guy. >> in. >> terms of. >> their contracts. and. >> you know. i've got to go. >> back and remember. >> but and there was a change right before i mean, that was a

very troubled deal that they managed to get done. i mean, there's the poster boy. >> oh, that is just. >> so horrible. look at the incineration. just that was. >> a large deal. yeah, that was not a great way to start. >> but. and then they had it lowered. they lowered pricing. >> before they even came. >> i haven't seen that kind of destruction since lem took all the money from the armenian money train heist in the shield and threw it into the incinerator. i've not seen that kind of incineration, jim. >> we do have an upgrade of the homebuilders at seaport. >> i like that, that. >> was good. >> i mean, are you willing to chase. that rabbit? >> the rates are so low that i actually, like doug yearly toll brothers. i don't mind buying the stock right here. the average price of a home there is 920. the problem is the gross margins. let's say because of the jack daniels insult, we insult oriented strand board. we insult regular lumber from canada. and then it's just one of the things that people don't like tariffs for is this is what

happens now. they put it on. and then you you know home homebuilders are good. unless you say that lumber is going to go up so much in price because of canadian tariffs, then the gross margins are going to go down. and we have to sell these homebuilders. >> there is some redfin data today suggesting that the improvements in mortgage apps may be coming in time for spring. right. >> 20%. doug hurley did say, look, the last couple weeks are good. i kidded, doug, that we're going to start playing week to week, but doug is i'm talking about toll brothers lennar saying that they're doing well. toll brothers is saying they're doing well. so if you care about doing well and have a good spring selling season, may i suggest that toll brothers is has suffered from multiple compression that i have not seen in ages. but if you do get a canadian lumber story of a for a company that sells at seven times earnings, it's going to go lower. jim, you. >> mentioned this, but i want to come back to it because i'm sure you're going to be focused on it. broadcom avgo. yeah i mean the stock is down 22% now for

the year. remember it was part of the trillion dollar market cap club. >> it's been in my it's my time. it was one of the great great. performers for. >> quite some time. what do you think after i think hawks get earnings. what do you think? >> i think hock tan is a tough guy. he's the ceo now. four months ago he was saying things are good. i think he's going to say things are good. i think he's getting a lot of big contracts. they do that custom made chip that you need for if you're going to try to save money and you're a hyperscaler. i think coq10 not necessarily going to come to the rescue of the market because he doesn't care about that. i think he's going to put up good numbers and he's going to say good things. i'm out there saying that i own a bunch. i own it for years and years, and i in hock tan, i trust i always say that, but it's a long day today in hock tan. i trust he could make me look bad. so of others. i don't play for dinner. >> what do you. >> play for, jim? i play for pride and. >> do not let down my colleagues.

>> never. >> i take for you. guys teammates. >> nice way to go, jim. >> zach born and me, the linebacker for the eagles, said he plays for each other. >> what about slay? >> what happened? >> no. no. how he could negotiate that deal. don't worry. don't worry about howie. i talked to him yesterday. do not worry about howie. howie roseman would talk about okay. you have to know what he's up to. >> always, always. >> got to know you already won the. >> super bowl. who cares? enough, david. >> the super bowl, it's everything. but it's also nothing. >> as we go to break dow down 560 here. watch bonds. we talked about the decline in yields at the short end. we had claims actually pretty good 221 is much better than expected and sort of flies in the face of that challenger data. we'll see. we'll get a lot more today with besson at noon. waller and bostic after that. stay with us.

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>> given the. >> volatility of hymns, continues today on these reports, jim, that novo now cutting prices also i. >> think it believe. >> there's a. >> lot of things at work that are against the hymns and hers. i know there's no love lost between lily, by the way, dave bricks and hymns and hers. and i think that you could get a ruling against these guys that they enforce, i don't know. >> i will. >> watch it. name has been all over the place of course. dow down for 60, about 30 points above the s&p 200 day. don't go above the s&p 200 day. don't go anywhere. (vo) had it with your old phone? ready to be done with it? we've got you. at verizon, trade in any phone, any condition for the new iphone. get iphone 16 pro with apple intelligence, on us. on any plan. now with genmoji. and get ipad and apple watch series 10. all three on us.

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into your xfinity voice remote. sale and make your dream office a reality. >> let's get to jim and stop trading. >> gap store sports tonight. i've got mr. dixon, and he's done a terrific job with stocks, giving up every single point of gains that he had. i have cracker barrel, which, by the way, is up 21% today. that's truly a fantastic ceo. and then maybe my favorite business person of my life, ken langone, which is fantastic. ken has done remarkable things and everyone's going. to be glued, i think, to what he says. he's been he's been right as rain for so long. it's amazing. and his book is so great of capitalism. it's just

jim capitalism. >> dying to. >> know what he thinks of everything. >> oh, my. >> but he thinks the tariffs and i do. ken asked. my wife said, listen, you're on the board of bucknell from now on. i was like. he's the most powerful and deservedly powerful, fabulous business person i've ever had the privilege of meeting him to get. i sat next to him in a couple of things. he's like, he's brilliant and tough and humble and great. >> well, said jim, that's a show tonight. we'll see you at six. mad money, 6 p.m. eastern time after the break. don't miss the commerce secretary, howard lutnick, as we monitor these latest developments around tariffs when we come right back. >> modern advisors need modern solutions. explore modern alpha, enhance your portfolios, and empower your practice all without taking your hands off the wheel. learn more about wisdomtree portfolio solutions visit wisdomtree. portfolio consultations.

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nine of the new york stock exchange. stocks in sell off mode again. it's been a brutal few sessions here. the s&p is down 1.5%. nasdaq taking it harder down almost 2%. there's a chip sell off going on fueled by the marvell numbers that sharp. that stock down sharply. but it's broad based. every sector is lower right now. even the consumer staples which are holding up are a little bit lower. but it is tech stocks that are leading us lower again. that's kind of been a theme. cyclical stocks also getting hit pretty hard. take a look at treasuries. obviously it's been a story of those lower yields a little bit firmer today. the ten year yield 4.3%. also those higher german yields maybe leading to some sort of global bond rout. the two year yield though is a little bit lower just below 4%. carl. >> we're going to talk to the commerce secretary. howard lutnick in a moment right after wholesale trade. hey, rick santelli. >> yes, i'll tell you, these these numbers go right along with today's trade deficit. if you look at the january final read on wholesale inventories, it was up 8/10 of a percent. up

8/10 of a percent. why is that so important. that's the biggest inventory wholesale increase since yes you guessed it august of 22. and if you looked at this morning's trade deficit, it had a record number of imports, up 10% to 401 billion versus exports, which were 267 billion. tariff front running is definitely having an effect here. and you can see it in all the numbers. now, the sales side of this equation. wow. and this also gives us an idea of why we're seeing these deficits skyrocket. the inventories are coming in. but the sales they were down 1.3%. that is almost three times more than expectations in the other direction, we're expecting up half of 1%. we're down 1.3 in the rear view mirror. though to be fair, there was a big revision in december from up 1% to 1.4. so you could see as we go more into 2025, that front running dynamic just becomes

exaggerated. the real key here is how it all turns out. because ultimately, if this is artificially negatively affecting what we may be looking at for gdp, when it reverses, it's going to have the opposite effect and it's going to boost the numbers. in both cases, the exaggerations probably don't really mean as much as the superficial numbers. carl in the gang, back to you. >> okay, rick, thank you very much. and yeah, there are some expectations that we might see negative growth for first quarter, but a lot of it's skewed by front running those tariffs. as rick said. let's get some reaction from the white house on president trump's latest latest tariff moves. commerce secretary howard lutnick joins us now. secretary lutnick, welcome. good to see you. >> great to see you. >> it's been a bit of a roller coaster. so we'll start with the latest news, which is the breathing room that president trump is giving to the automakers a month now for those

tariffs on mexico and canada. why one month and why just the automakers. >> so it's not likely to be just the automakers. i mean the president is going to decide this today, but he's talking about it. but i think it's likely that it will cover all usmca compliant goods and services. so that which is part of president trump's deal with canada and mexico are likely to get an exemption from these tariffs. now that the this comes from that, canada has done an enormous amount. they've offered us an enormous amount of work on fentanyl. and so is mexico. matter of fact, the president and i are speaking to our mexican counterparts later today this morning. so we think this is likely the likely outcome will be sort of in the middle. so usmca compliant goods and services will be excluded and

everything else. so if you think about it this way, if you lived under donald trump's us, mexico and canada agreement, you will get a reprieve from the tariffs now. and if you chose to go outside of that, you did so at your own risk. and today is when that reckoning comes. >> now you will get a reprieve now for one month, or you will get a reprieve altogether from these new tariffs. >> well, the reprieve is for one month. remember the month now is about fentanyl and about the border. so they've been working hard to close the border. but we're not seeing the reduced number of deaths of autopsy deaths from fentanyl. and the president is just right on that topic. he is going to protect american lives. and he's being very, very tough on it. but let's face it, if you're not tough on protecting american lives, what's the point of being the president of united states? he is so strong and focused on

protecting american lives, and he's going to crack down and make sure this fentanyl is not coming in. that's why he's raised the tariff on china. remember, in 2019, president xi offered donald trump when he was president that he would put the death penalty on anybody who made the fentanyl ingredients. and the president is looking to get that in place. stop these ingredients and stop fentanyl coming in now. april 2nd is when we begin our reciprocal tariffs. so if you think about it, what he said was okay between now and april 2nd, i'm just going to give usmca. i'm going to set that aside from these tariffs. but just for this month and then on april 2nd, it's really it's not that this reprieve starts, it's that on april 2nd the reciprocal tariffs start. how you treat us is how we expect to treat you. and you have no idea what canada does i mean the dairy products and all this other stuff. it's got to end.

>> so and i have a lot of questions about april 2nd. but but for just first on the fentanyl, you said that he wants to see fewer deaths. is that is that the metric here for when these tariffs end? i mean, because according to u.s. customs and border protection, agents only seized 43 pounds of fentanyl at the canadian border last year. so is that a metric? do we want to see that go down to zero? how are you judging when they've done enough? >> well, how funny is that right? like if i seize less, you know, does that mean, like, the stuff they haven't seized hasn't gone through? i think autopsy death, as horrible as that is to say, should be the statistic. >> americans smuggling it over. right. it's not just canadians. >> well, look, crooks are crooks, but i got to stop the flow across our border. we've got to stop the flow that has these ingredients being made in canada and in mexico coming into

our country. we've got to close the border, which we're doing a better job of obviously record low numbers, but we need to see fentanyl deaths decline. so that is the statistic. so are we looking at. >> daily autopsy deaths. like how do we do that. how as a business do you figure out what what that's going to look like. and when it ends? >> well i think what you see is that this month, the my expectation is the president will come to the agreement today and hopefully we will announce this today, that usmca compliant goods will not have a tariff for the next month until april 2nd. that includes the autos. and the autos were the lead in getting this and getting this deal done. but also canada and mexico have done a good job offering us ever more work to prove to us they're going to cut the fentanyl deaths. and then april 2nd, we're going to move into the reciprocal tariffs. and hopefully mexico and canada will have done a good enough job on fentanyl that this part of the conversation will be off the

table. and we'll move just to the reciprocal tariff conversation. but if they haven't, this will stay on black and white. this will stay on. we need to protect american lives. >> is there any discussions with china about what they're doing on on fentanyl ingredients and deaths, which i know has been a problem? >> well, president xi offered president trump in 2019 that he would put the death penalty on if you made the ingredients for fentanyl and opioids. he offered it in 2019 and he didn't do it. and the president has heard that and said, i'm looking for that end. fentanyl ingredient production in china. just end it or you're going to pay 20% and they're paying 20%. so it's a win win. if they stop, great. we save americans. and if they if they refuse to stop right then the cost of their refusing to stop gets higher and higher and higher 100%. >> but there's also a cost for american business and american

jobs and american farmers. i mean, last time around 2018, 2019, the trump administration had to subsidize the farmers. well, guess what? china just slapped 15% tariffs on u.s. agriculture. so is there going to be payments to them? >> no, i think i think what's going to happen is when you get to reciprocal tariffs, you're going to see the most positive explosive benefit to american farmers in the history of america. i mean, that is what's coming. we are going to use our tariffs to knock down the protectionist walls of the world. we have let everybody into our market and they have blocked us all of these markets. i mean, we had we had modi in from india and he was bragging he has 1.4 billion people. and those 1.4 billion people won't buy a bushel of american corn. this is going to end and donald trump is on it. and on april 2nd, he is going to start

smashing down those walls and letting our american farmers thrive in the world. they they have stockholm syndrome. they've never been able to actually export the way they should. are farmers or ranchers right. our fishermen. this has got to end. we need to be able to export, and we're going to break the walls of all these countries that protect themselves and let us in. we let you in. you let us in 100%. >> but the problem is then they go into retaliation mode. so we sell a lot of agricultural products to china. it's an important market for our farmers. and now there's higher tariffs. so it makes our farmers less competitive on the world stage. and if we go into more tariffs then they will just do more back. and i guess where does that end up okay. >> look this this month is about fentanyl. and the president is very, very focused on saving american lives first and foremost. this month, the month of march is about saving

americans lives from fentanyl. but come april 2nd, we're going to focus on breaking down these barriers. so it's a couple of weeks away, but we are going to smash down the barriers of trade. america has left itself wide open. we have a 2.5% tariff, and even the vat is 20%. it's amazing. india has almost 50% on average, china over 50% on average. i mean, you've got huge tariffs, non-trade non-tariff trade barriers. and here's what i learned yesterday. you know what the chinese do. they when the government buys products they pay 20% premium to the key companies so they can subsidize them so they can attack us. this stuff is going to end and donald trump is on it, and he is going to end it. and america has never seen the growth that it's going to feel as donald trump rips down the barriers that these other countries have put out, ripped down these walls, and let our farmers and ranchers and our

fishermen thrive. >> so, secretary lutnick, then what? i mean, what are your expectations on april 2nd, given the data you're taking in right now? how how how significant are the tariffs going to be in your mind at this point? do you have a sense as to what it's going to look like more broadly speaking here with all of our trading partners? >> well, if our trading partners did nothing, then obviously let's say a trading partner has a 20% tariff rate on us, then i guess we would have a 20% tariff rate on that, and they won't go up, because if they go up, we'll go up. and my expectation is it starts high and then it starts coming down. but most importantly, those trade barriers come down. our ability to export completely explodes. and then what you're going to see is massive, massive importing of factories, production. i mean the scale of people going to come and build in the greatest economy in the

world is the likes of which no one's ever seen. when the president says the golden age is coming, i mean, i'm meeting with these companies. they're all companies. they're all coming. the big car companies, they're all bringing it back. everybody's going to do manufacturing here. the growth rate in american production. remember, every trillion of investment in america is one point of gdp. and he's already brought in. he announced the other day 1.3 trillion. and the factories are coming. and it's going to be massive. >> if i could come back for a moment just to follow up on the mca compliance component here of overall trade, do you know what the percentage is in terms of mexico and canada from our imports that is mca compliant? >> i think it's over 50%. >> okay. so at least 50% for the next month will not be receiving that 25% tariff of imports from mexico and canada. sort of fair to say that. >> i said that was just a that was just a cuff. i mean, there

are lots of people who know the precision, but i'm on live with you, so i'm just giving you my best guess. >> yeah. understood. i wanted to follow up as well. there's a wall street journal story today. secretary lutnick on, you know, the background of the talks, trying to avert the tariffs from mexico and canada. and they refer to talks between their negotiators and you as well. and they said they struggled to make their case to president trump through what they call a phalanx of intermediaries. and they say at times those intermediaries. and i think they're referring as well to yourself, perhaps are unsure what the president wanted. can you respond to that? are you unsure of what president trump wants? >> i look, i love when the fake news comes up with nonsense just to sell a newspaper. i mean, you've got to be kidding me. the president is so he loves to communicate. he calls everybody all the time. i speak to him all the time. you've got to be kidding me. the president knows exactly what he wants. we know exactly what he wants. and our

job is to try to execute exactly what he wants. but anybody says that that his advisers don't know what he's thinking are silly. >> so. and you're saying you communicated fully with your counterparts in mexico and canada, for example, exactly what the president wants. i assume. >> like yesterday and the day before yesterday, of course. like, come on. i mean, this is so silly. this is really important stuff. and to actually have a news reporter come up with such nonsense like that, i mean, how much time do we really have to spend on things that are just really just pathetic? >> well, let me ask you this, secretary. does the president want a rising stock market? because we do have stocks 6% off the highs. and confidence is being shaken here a little bit around business. i know you guys wanted lower interest rates and you're getting that. but kind of for the wrong reasons because now there's worries about growth and potentially recession because of a trade war. >> the president wants american

growth and american prosperity. okay. and the fact that the stock market goes down a half a percent or a percent, it goes up a half a percent or percent, that is not the driving force of our outcomes. our outcomes are driven by we want factory production in america. we want employment to explode. in america, we want training for the new ai industrial revolution to happen in america. we're going to bring factories back to america. we're going to rebuild michigan. we're going to rebuild ohio. why do those auto plants go to canada? why would we have auto plants go from michigan to canada? why is that in our community's interest? we want to rebuild steel and aluminum. the president is focused on rebuilding america. and you are going to see growth in america. you're going to see an interest rate. when we balance the budget of the united states, you're going to see interest rates drop 1% or more. you're going to see the stock market explode. and if it doesn't do it tomorrow, that's because people just don't understand that they should be

betting on donald trump. if i were them and i were your viewers, i would understand. the long term trade of donald trump is you bet on him and he is a winner and he is going to win for america. >> well, we are going to obviously be able to find out, you know, specific to auto manufacturing because you've mentioned it a number of times. i mean, many of our there are plenty of automobiles manufactured in this country, not just not just domestically by our by ford or gm, but also many foreign companies as well. secretary lutnick. and they have supply chains that they've spent years sort of figuring out where things should be made to try to be my senses as competitive as they can be globally. do you think by moving everything back as you describe it, that they're going to be able to be competitive globally? aren't prices ultimately going to actually have to rise? >> i think if you want to buy things from other countries and you want to bring it into america, then the price is going to rise. but if you make it here, then of course the price won't rise. so make it here.

make it here. how hard is that to say? you know, just keep repeating it to yourself. there's no tariff if you make it here. so tsmc, the biggest chip manufacturer, says okay, okay i'll make it here. you're going to watch everybody come to that realization. apple who builds it all in china. why are they building it all in china and giving us our iphone. why don't they make it here. you know, they used to say we don't have. >> it's cheaper. one answer, mr. secretary, is that wages are lower over there. >> and now there are robots who can do it. you're going to see robotic production of iphones and the jobs that are going to be created. people who build those factories, the mechanics who work on those robots, these jobs are going to be millions and millions of those jobs. these are great high paying jobs, and you don't need a college education to do it. this is the recreation of trade craft in the united states of america.

and donald trump is on it. he's bringing it back. and you are going to see apple. why did apple say they were going to invest 500 billion in america? they because they're going to build the robots to build their iphones in america. >> that's the first time i've heard you, mr. secretary, merge the notions of reshoring and robotics that that somehow this is going to be two parts of the same story. >> that's where it's coming from. i mean, how can apple move? like if you look at foxconn, who makes iphones, right? they have 2.5 million people who work for them in china. and of course, you know, the worst statistic i can tell you about that is that they have the highest suicide rate of any company in the world because they have these people live there and work there and live there and work there. that's just not an american way. how can we compete with that labor? the answer is robotics are going to do it better and cheaper. and the key to robotics is going to be american ai and american

intuition and the american technology. it's all coming here. it's coming here now. and we need the people to fix them, to build them, to build these factories. i mean, the scale by which these great jobs are coming to america is going to be amazing. >> so, all right, because robots usually replace people, but you think that ultimately it's going to create jobs. >> this oh, i'm sure of it. you're going to see that the my department is going to come out with a plan that has a guarantee. if you go into the training program, you will be guaranteed a job making more than $125,000. and we're going to have 5 million jobs available. and those jobs are going to be offered by who? by apple, by tsmc, by softbank, by openai. they all need to build their factories, maintain their factories and operate their factories. these are a different kind of electrician, a different kind of plumber, hvac people, a different kind of mechanic. these are the people that work

on high tech, like airplanes. and there's going to be millions of these jobs, and these jobs are going to make america great again. from its workforce rebuilding. automakers are going to come back. everybody's coming back. this is the golden age. and you're talking about it today. >> are we going to make all those things in the united states? none of them are made here. tvs, electronics. >> why did we stop? because we entered into an illogical world of low tariffs here and high tariffs there, so everybody could go find the cheapest place in the world? i mean, think about it. why would a factory that was making cars in michigan move to canada? because i tell you why. because they did it because they weren't unions in these locations. we harmed american workers in exchange for what? the prices of cars didn't come down. yeah, donald trump understands it. he's going to bring it back. >> i don't mean to i know you got to go, but i wanted to ask

one question about something you've said previously. a number of investors have brought it to my attention. the vie structure. this involves china as well. it's this tax efficient structure, so to speak, that companies such as alibaba use, for example, where they established in a tax friendly jurisdiction the cayman islands and things of that nature. i believe you said previously you guys are looking at it. i'm just curious if that's the case and whether there's any update on that. >> there are so many tax scams. i mean, how about ireland has a $60 billion trade surplus, we're running a $2 trillion deficit and they have a surplus. why do you think, do you think the irish 5 million people are doing something? no, it's all tech companies and pharmaceutical companies who figured out a way around our tax program. and they and they stuck their ip there. how about every ship you've ever seen? have you ever seen a commercial vessel with an american flag on the back? you see liberian flag or a

panamanian flag because they're not paying tax in america. we are on it. we are going to fix it. we are going to make it fair. we're going to take the waste, fraud and abuse out. we're going to get these tax scams out. people are going to pay american fairly, and we are going to balance the budget for the united states of america. >> i was going to ask what you're going to do with the tariff revenues, whether that could go into funding the sovereign wealth fund? >> no, it's going to reduce the deficit and balance the budget of the united states of america. >> and replace. >> the internal revenue service, say external revenue service. we all have this. you know, we think we're supposed to pay taxes on the internal revenue service. how about we replace it the way donald trump thinks about it with the external revenue service? let the people who live off of our economy pay and we'll pay less. no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax for social security. i mean, come on, this president is on it and he is going to deliver. finally, secretary lutnick, i

mean, we know you well. you've come on so many times as the head of cantor. and i do wonder what your conversations are like with fellow ceos right now who, you know, i think saw a really big spike in confidence after the election. they were excited about deregulation. they were excited about tax cuts. and now they're wondering about this trade war and what their cost structure is going to look like and what they're going to have to do with jobs. how are those conversations going? >> those conversations are much more optimistic and positive than you think. they said, we can bring it back. the automakers, we can bring it back in six months. people say, okay, can you give me accelerated depreciation? and the answer is the president has said he wants to give accelerated depreciation. he wants to figure out how to help companies bring their factories back to america. so it's a win win, right. if they if they bring their factory back, we get the we get the work here. and if they don't bring it back then we get tariff revenue that pays off our deficit. so we are going you see i speak to all

these ceos all the time. it's sort of all day, every day. i'm either speaking to a foreign trade minister or a ceo, and we're always talking about how to bring it back. accelerated depreciation is one. and then other ways that we are working on with the president to come up with ways to incent people to build your factory here. and we're going to come up with a lot of cool ways to do it. that's why i talked to all these companies, because we go back and forth figuring it out. but i tell you what, this is going to be exceptional and extraordinary for american growth. and that's what the president is focused on, american growth and making sure we have no deficit. because if we have no deficit, you're going to get ten year interest rates, more like in the 2.5% range. and you can have mortgages rates come smashing down. and we're going to have energy prices come smashing down as we drill baby drill. and people just don't understand the power of america in the hands of donald trump is going to be amazing. >> well, we have seen we've seen oil prices come down, rates come

down, mortgage rates start to come down. i mean, it's starting. thank you, secretary lutnick. we certainly appreciate the transparency and all the time. >> all right i love spending time with you. thanks. >> thank you. howard lutnick by the way the stock market cutting losses in half. the dow is down 600 at the lows. we're down 300 now programing. note more from the new administration tomorrow. treasury secretary bessent will join squawk box at 7 a.m. eastern time. guys, i think the important parts of that is, first of all, expanded reprieve for everyone compliant with usmca, whether it's the 50% that he said or maybe more than that now, you'll get businesses rushing to them to try to prove that. so that that shows a little bit of maybe leniency when it comes to the tariffs on mexico and canada and just painting the picture of what they're trying to do here. they're trying to. >> completely restructure the global trading system. manufacturing industry secretary lutnick has incredibly ambitious goals and says amazing things

are coming, but i you do something like this. it's there's a lot of moving parts and a lot of complexity. >> meantime, as we've been talking to him, trudeau's on the tape says he expects canada and the us to be in a trade war for the foreseeable future. we didn't get to ask the secretary his pain threshold for a boycott of u.s. spirits, or an impact on u.s. tourism to canada, is the biggest international visitor to this country. every year, 20 million visits, a couple billion dollars in spend. >> no, there's an impact and there are consequences. we got the brown-forman ceo on in the next hour, and they're worried about being taken off of canadian shelves. but we did ask about his pain threshold for the market, which i think is important because he said, and here's the quote, the stock market is not driving the outcomes for this administration. and you wouldn't be smart not to bet on donald trump ultimately, because if we do see rates come down as the budget balances, if this goes according to plan, that should

be very stimulative to the us economy. it's a big if. >> yeah, a lot of big ifs all right. although mr. lutnick is very certain it would seem. >> his job. >> as we head to a break, let's give you a roadmap for the rest of the hour. the street's reaction to those delayed auto tariffs, what's ahead for that industry and the stocks? >> the chip sector is in a bear market territory as another eye darling fails to meet estimates. we're going to talk about what the sell off in semis means for names like nvidia. >> and investors bracing for the big employment report tomorrow, a closer look at how dovish cuts could impact those numbers. big show still ahead. as we've said market recovering from an earlier sell off though still a earlier sell off though still a little bit lower across the at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real.

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five years? -nope. comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. powering five years of savings. powering possibilities. comcast business. amazing and is something that we get to use every day. >> what you just heard secretary lutnick talking about this. president trump is now granting one month tariff tariff exemptions for automakers. that is car in mexico and canada carmakers, though warning prices could still climb as much as 25%. ultimately, if tariffs do go into effect, our next guest says enforcement of the tariffs would, quote, eradicate the profits of the big three. general motors, ford and stellantis are the names that he's talking about. dan levy is barclays auto analyst. i don't know, dan, if you had an opportunity to listen to secretary lutnick talking about these exemptions that will take place in terms of those that are mca compliant, it would seem to include the companies we just talked about or in some ways. but what's the long term picture

here look like, and how do you try to figure it out? as an auto analyst? >> it's a lot. >> thank you david, sarah, carl for having me. yeah, it's a lot of uncertainty. and i would say it really casts a large overhang over the sector. i think everyone is trying to figure out the trade situation because it can drastically change the profit. the profit set for, for the companies and making changes to the policies. these are going to be long dated efforts, right? moving capacity can take, you know, up to 24 months. so any changes are going to take time. and i think just clarity on policy is what a lot of the companies are seeking. >> yeah, i'm sure you know, i'd love you to respond. i mean, we're long interesting conversation with secretary lutnick, in which he talked a lot about auto manufacturers bringing everything back, essentially, and i'm

paraphrasing here to the united states, what would that look like in terms of cost for these automakers? were they actually to do that? because the secretary obviously has a very optimistic view. what what do you think? >> yeah. well, there's a reason why there is a heavy reliance on canada and really more so mexico for the auto industry in the us. and just to provide some numbers, roughly a quarter of the vehicles sold in the us are manufactured in canada and mexico, mostly mexico. but the bigger piece of it is the parts, right, roughly half of the parts, and most of that being mexico are from from canada and mexico. the big thing is that there's a large labor benefit in, in mexico. and so that's where the automakers are producing, especially some of the lower cost variants. and so i think a lot of those labor

differences have to be taken into account. >> what about europe? i mean, does europe what kind of trade barriers do they have with our automakers? and is it really tougher for u.s. automakers to sell over in europe? and if we do see reciprocal tariffs go through, what does it mean? >> well, europe has been de-emphasized for ford and gm. gm doesn't operate really in europe any longer. ford has a smaller european business. stellantis obviously has a large european business there. you know, as far as as reciprocal tariffs go, i think the point being that, you know, there is a heavy amount of imports, roughly a quarter of u.s. vehicles sold are imported either from asia or europe. and i think that the point is leveling some of the playing field there. that's where i think you would see some of the us automakers advocate for a leveling of the playing field. >> yeah. all right. and real quickly, what's it mean for all the stocks? i mean, are they

dead money here. >> well i think we need to see some some, some clarity on the policy. the irony here is especially for the automakers, gm in particular, the us sales industry has been going really well. right. like we're seeing good volumes. pricing is generally holding in. inventories are remaining in check. and so if we can get past some of this uncertainty on on the policy side, it's a good opportunity for the us automakers, gm in particular. >> all right dan appreciate it. thank you for time. >> great. thank you. >> well off the lows here. dow's down 220. chip stocks are still under some pressure this morning. the big etf that tracks the semis. now trading in bear market territory. that's down 20% from recent highs. our kristina partsinevelos is here with what's driving some of those declines. morning kristina. >> good morning. well chip stocks and the greater i tread really face a paradox right now where strong performance is being punished instead of rewarded. semis are some of the worst performers you mentioned

on the s&p as well as the nasdaq today. the smh actually that you mentioned the etf, the 50 day moving average is actually falling below the 200 day moving average, which is called the death cross and signals some bearishness. custom chip maker marvell, though, really epitomizes this downward trend. posting earnings last night and a guidance that beat estimates only to see the stock plunge. what, 17%? credo technologies another stock example delivering triple digit revenue growth and a guide beat the stock fell 14% yesterday, down about 7% today. even sector bellwether nvidia down about what, 2% amd just neither of them are immune. both companies reported earnings and forecasts higher than estimated very recently, and yet saw their stocks retreat as investors really nitpicked details like gross margins for nvidia. broadcom, though, stands poised for potentially similar treatment. the stock carries a we just had on your screen a valuation higher than nvidia, adding another layer of investor hesitation going into earnings tonight. the message, though is clear in today's hyper

scrutinized market, stellar market performance is no longer enough for and no nor guarantees market enthusiasm. sarah. >> yeah, lots priced in. in other words. thank you. christina. christina partsinevelos with an nvidia dragging down broadcom as well. all those chips lower after a break. the potential impact of doge on friday's blockbuster jobs report. what investors need to know. stay with us. >> real time exchange sector sword is sponsored by sector sword is sponsored by sector spider etfs. -honey... -but the gains are pumping! dad, is mommy a "finance bro?" she switched careers to make money for your weddings. oooh the asian market is blowing up! hey who wants shots, huh?! -shots?? -of milk. the right money moves aren't as aggressive as you think.

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>> get started today with a prescription that's right for you at wrexham. com. >> trump's efforts are having a big impact on jobs. a new report this morning that u.s. layoffs hit the highest level they've seen since 2020. in the month of february. and more than a third of those jobs were federal. steve liesman is here. he's got more on just how much doge could be in tomorrow's jobs report, of course. steve. yeah, we're going to be looking for it. >> right. and those to come. the challenger report showing that the doge effect was the top reason for the surge in layoffs.

272,000, david. but it was a mix of layoffs from government and private sector, including 63 k from the government. that includes federal and private government contractors, retail 45,000. they were hit by some bad weather, of course, and 22,000 from tech. we've had layoff announcements from hp, meta and workday. among the giants that announced in february the doge impact the top reason cited for job cuts. it was followed by market and economic conditions and bankruptcy. now, the bulk of government job cuts are likely to recent to show up in tomorrow's job report. workers won't be counted as unemployed until their severance runs out and they perhaps file for it. but roughly 30 k federal workers, 30,000. they leave their jobs monthly. president trump froze government hiring on day one of his presidency. that means you could vacated jobs won't be filled, creating some negative government numbers that might drag on the headline tomorrow. maybe more than expected. economists looking for declines of 5 to 10,000 in the government sector. but evercore isi, in a research piece, suggests total job losses from

doge could be as low as 50 this year. that's if the government gets back into hiring, or as high as 666 660,000. in a worst case scenario created by what it calls doge policy uncertainty. quote, doge related uncertainty, they said, over contracts and grants could have an additional paralyzing effect on hiring and employers exposed to these funding sources or in need of regulatory approvals from agencies that are themselves paralyzed by doge review. most forecasters, though, settling on a midpoint between total job losses over the course of the year of 250 to 350,000, or roughly 20 to 30 a month, a noticeable number. but for tomorrow, look for a modest decline with more guys to come in the months ahead. carl. >> really quick, steve, what explains the relative strength in claims today, do you think. >> it just seems like it's come back? i think the overall economy is doing pretty well. we have had some declines in job

creation, it seems to me, for the month of january and the month of february. but i don't think that we've we're outside of the area where you should be feel okay about it. 250 and higher, carl, the numbers you want to look for. so 240 last week was towards the high end but not all that worrying. 220 is getting back to trend. >> all right big morning tomorrow. we'll watch it with your help steve. thanks, steve. liesman this morning let's turn to retail. number of big reports this week calling out some weak spending in february macy's today says quote the consumer health is under pressure as the markets also digest comments from for example the commerce secretary earlier this hour about tariffs. joining us this morning with his take on what's next for retail. jay rogers kniffen ceo jan kniffen jan, great to see you. thanks for the help today. hey, couldn't be happier to be here. can you sort of weave all of this retail commentary into one thread at least this week? yeah, the thread. >> right now is. the fourth quarter was great, despite an awful january due to the

weather. february was awful due to the weather, and we're either going to see a big pickup here in march as we get to easter, because even in that horrible month of february, we had a really good valentine's day. so we're either going to see a big pickup here toward the end of march, or we're all going to panic. so far, i believe we'll see a big pickup because the consumer still looks really healthy, even if they're nervous. you know, we saw them push their savings rate up. that always makes you nervous. but it still means they had money. and so our spending has been pretty good on everything other than weather related items. and the traffic has been really slow. and i think that's all weather related as well. it was restaurants as well as retail establishments, so i'm not too concerned yet. and i you know, the numbers today wouldn't make you nervous at all. the numbers tomorrow might make you really nervous for retail, but i'm not seeing it out there with the consumer and i'm not hearing it from the retailers. they're seeing a little weakness, mostly

the weather, and they're worried that some of it is nervousness. >> right? some tried to use the spread between the bloomingdale's comps and the macy's comps today to argue that we're increasingly reliant on the high end. do you agree? well. >> my picks for 2025, the vendors ralph lauren, nike, lul, deckers, levi, lvmh, hermes, everybody either aspirational or high end. so i guess by definition i must agree. and then when i look at the store operators, though, i'm all about tapestry and boot barn and walmart and costco and home depot and dick's sporting goods and tractor supply, four of those are the best retailers in the country, and they're very defensive. so i'm kind of on both sides of that. i believe luxury and aspirational retailers where the customer is going to be. but i also think being a big, strong operator that's really hitting the ball hard is really good place to be when tariffs are a problem and you've got to deal with that in the supply chain. >> we're just going to ask what

makes what makes one retailer better equipped to deal with tariffs than another. because most of the stuff we don't make here in this country, maybe we will someday, with the help of robots, as secretary letnick said. but in the meantime, who's going to deal with it better than than others? >> power is what works. walmart has more power and negotiating skills and better logistics teams than anybody, perhaps in the world, but certainly here in the country. and they'll handle it really, really well. on the other hand, macy's will handle it well too, because they've been doing this forever. and we've all dealt with tariffs and cross border taxes forever. if we've been in this business and they've got teams to do that too. so people who are skilled in that and still relatively healthy as far as balance sheet and spend money, whatever you have to do, they'll do well. so i think those big strong ones, i said, if you're walmart or costco or home depot or dick's sporting goods, you can handle

this because you're well financed, you've got great teams, you're executing flawlessly. you'll just do better than the people who are struggling when it comes to dealing with tariffs and what to do with the customer. so am i worried about the tariffs? yes. am i terrified by the tariffs? no. we all know how to do this. the real question is all we get 10 or 20% on china? or do we really get 25% on both canada and mexico? and then the whole economy gets dislocated and then the consumer gets nervous. and yes, we're all terrified that they quit spending and we go into a consumer led recession. but if we're just tariffing china, you know, china's economy is on its face and it's a big export economy. they'll have to absorb a big chunk of this they did last time. they will this time. and then we'll also see substitution. we'll see trade down. we'll see all the stuff we see when the consumer has to deal with it. and the retailers will react. all that and the big strong ones will react better.

>> yeah. that kind of puts into context the headlines regarding walmart today and some of their suppliers. jan, we'll learn some more in the morning with the jobs number. thanks. jan kniffen. >> speaking of the consumer, kroger shares are gaining after results there this morning. what executives have been saying on the call this hour, when we come right back. >> no city is immune from financial challenges but with assured guarantees, municipal bond insurance investors bonds can be assured, guarantee a stronger bond. >> skating for over 45 years has taken a toll on my body. i take qunol turmeric because it helps with healthy joints and inflammation support. why qunol? it has superior absorption it has superior absorption compared to regular turmeric your shipping manager left to "find themself." leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. sponsored jobs on indeed are two and a half times faster to first hire.

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every day, over a million multi-millionaires, trust schwab with more than three trillion dollars of their wealth. ♪♪ ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. president is going to decide this today, but he's talking about it. but i think it's likely that it will cover all usmca compliant goods and services. so that which is part

of president trump's deal with canada and mexico are likely to get an exemption from these tariffs. >> so that was news there from howard lutnick. the commerce secretary on with us at the top of the hour, saying not just the autos, because i asked why autos and nobody else, not just the autos getting a reprieve. the one month reprieve from these 25% tariffs on canada and mexico, everyone that he says is compliant with the trade deal. that was the revamped nafta that the trump 1.0 administration did. it remains to be seen who that is, but there were some comments yesterday from the secretary of agriculture that agriculture also might get a deal here and be spared. the market clearly likes the deals, right, when they're when there's some relief, when there's some discussions going on about how to mitigate some of the damage here around these tariffs. >> he he indicated, you know, i asked him percentage wise, he didn't give a specific but indicated roughly half of all of

the imports would then, in his estimation, be applicable here in terms of one month to the one month reprieve. >> i mean, they're really they're really teasing this april 2nd date of reciprocal tariffs, where i think a lot of what they've complained about and the fairness issue like canada dairy, which was in violation of the usmca. yeah. will be and the goal and i think something he said really important that maybe doesn't get a lot of attention is the goal is not to have higher tariffs. it's not to have any tariffs. it's not to have protectionism. it's like. >> well, unless. >> we don't want that. >> unless you want to choose his side of the argument that it is going to help balance the budget and reduce the deficit and replace the income tax, though you do need the revenue for that. >> in the in the near term. sure. and that gets into the question about what the goal is here ultimately. right. is it to balance the budget? fentanyl clearly is the goal with mexico and canada. what they're saying bringing back jobs and manufacturing and factories to this. >> well, we went in an interesting. spot trade that i

didn't expect when it came to robotics in terms of bringing back jobs, because he talked about hon hai precision, otherwise known as foxconn, and the millions of people it employs making iphones in china and indicated they could be made here, but by robots. take a listen. >> you're going to see robotic production of iphones and the jobs that are going to be created, people who build those factories, the mechanics who work on those robots. these jobs are going to be millions and millions of those jobs. these are great high paying jobs, and you don't need a college education to do it. this is the recreation of trade craft in the united states of america. and donald trump is on it. he's bringing it back. and you are going to see apple. why did apple say they're going to invest $500 billion in america. they because they're going to build the robots to build their iphones in america. >> robots do typically replace people. but in this case i guess there's an ecosystem of people building robots and repairing. >> and servicing the robots.

>> well, well, yes. but i do think it's reasonable, because i think one question is if you're going to bring all these factories back to the united states, one question is, do we have the workers? we don't have the workers, and we don't have the cheap labor that china does. so way to compete is to become more automated with robots. that's at least their hope. i just want to mention kroger guys because they were out with results today, and the results are kind of boring. in light of what was announced earlier this week, which is the abrupt resignation of ceo rodney mcmullen after a violation of the code of conduct around ethics of the company not related to the company's operations or to people. but we did get earnings and they revenue was a slight miss. earnings were beat. same store sales grew more than 2% during the quarter. for the full year, kroger sees earnings coming in a little bit below estimates this hour. on the conference call, the interim ceo spoke ron sergeant again. he was a longtime board member now stepping in as they look for a permanent ceo. he addressed the search for replacement for rodney mcmullen. here's what he said about it. >> the board has formed a search

committee. we have begun the search process. we have hired a nationally recognized firm. we are going to be looking at both the internal candidates as well as external candidates. but i think, most importantly, you know, we're focused on identifying the right leader to drive kroger's growth and enhance shareholder value. you know, i am proud to serve in this role for as long as needed. but i am absolutely confident that our board will select the right next ceo, whether from inside the company or outside. >> one thing that added to some of the maybe nervousness on wall street is this is a company that is also in the middle of getting a new cfo. so now ceo and cfo, they've hired someone, a longtime executive at pepsi, but still still questions. i haven't figured out what happened yet. everybody's asking. you're going. it's being kept really tight. it is, i'm told only the board and the gc get their nose about this figure out. it's just surprising if you know rodney, because he was a straight as an arrow. >> all right. a lot more coverage, of course, of these markets. we're off the lows.

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