hello darkness my old friend. >> what's your final. what's your final trade josh. >> i forgot. >> no, seriously. >> literally forgot. oh, okay. pfizer acting well today. >> all right bryn. >> one of my favorite etfs jp, if you're looking to diversify out of tech, it has a max cap of the sector of 17.5% positive for paychex. >> all right. closing bell i mean the exchanges now you know what i meant. >> we exchanged out. >> closing bell for the exchange. and the host scott welcome to the exchange everybody i am brian in for kelly. big day here. here's what's on tap. call it the tariff. two step uncertainty about supply chains and higher costs enough to rattle c-suites everywhere. how are american companies handling all the back and forth and dealing with potential dc job cuts? we'll ask the ceo, who is right in the middle of both. plus the magnificent seven stocks looking anything but magnificent this year. six of the seven are down since january 1st, some of them bigly. but evercore is. mark

mahaney just made one of those names, his new top pick. and we'll tell you about it coming up. and speaking of the mag seven, your trader says dump the mag seven and dig this. that's a clue and it's all ahead. we're going to get to it. but right now, let us start with the markets and your money and dom, you heard the stats on wisconsin halftime. it's looking pretty ugly out there. >> it is. >> and we've hit a point now where there is a notable move that we've seen in the markets to the downside. many traders saying it just feels or is trading heavy right now to the downside so to speak. but let's get you up to speed on the numbers right now. as brian points out, the dow industrials currently down over 1%. that's a nearly 500 point drop right now to 42,005 16 for the blue chip index. the broader s&p 500 measure is at 57.41. that's down a full hundred points or down 1.75%. and it's even worse for the tech heavy nasdaq composite index, which is now down 414

points. that's a 2.25% decline to a level of 18,133. now let's show you the levels that we were talking about right now. the ones that we have in play are the nasdaq composite, which now still trades below its 200 day moving average or longer term trend line. it has for the last several days. now it's trying to find some area of support here. we'll see if that sticks. but for right now we're trading again below it. now the one index that has not gone below it is the dow industrials. but today the s&p 500 went below its 200 day moving average on an intraday basis. you can see that line right there. the level that people are watching right now is 5728. that is that 200 day moving average. so we've hit it bounced a little bit above it. but now two of the three major indices have touched or traded below that longer term trend line. it's something some traders are paying close attention to. and then the mag seven names, as brian points

out, six of those seven down since january 1st, particular attention today being paid to all of them because many of them are still down today. mega-cap technology in terms of tesla down 5.5%, amazon down north of 3%, meta platforms down 3.5%. microsoft is the outperformer only down 1% and nvidia shares down 5% as well. nvidia with that chip trade brian, very key to the market as many traders point out, sometimes that semiconductor trade is oftentimes seen as a leading indicator for the rest of technology. and of course, as tech goes, so does the rest of the market. brian, i'll send things back. >> over to you. hold on. i want to pick that big brain of yours, the former money manager, don, because, okay, number one, six of the seven are down only meta. meta is the one name in the mag seven that is higher this year. nvidia, by the way, is down. it's the 27th best performing stock over the last year. hardly some great money maker. but do these levels matter? you mentioned it. you heard scott. the group mentioned it in halftime. do these 50 and 100 day moving averages really matter to the markets? >> they are a factor to

consider. it's not to say that once something touches something it goes back up again. but when you have a model and many investment advisors, many people run money traders. they take a look at different factors and they have different models that they put together. oftentimes some of these trading levels factor into the models for what they do when they say, hey, is this a level i want to buy at? is this a level i want to sell at? if these things do not hold, what do i do from there? so again, it's not that it just touches a level and all of a sudden it goes higher or lower or it hits something and automatically something happens. but when you have a world full of algorithmic trading, those algorithms are basically complex multiple line sets of instructions. one of those instruction lines in those if then statements could be whether or not a 50 or 100 or 200 day moving average gets hit. it all factors into whether or not there's an actual trade that's done. again, a factor in those decisions. brian. >> i love you throwing out your basic coding skills there. joe tarnovo, by the way, talked about those algorithms earlier on in halftime. dom chu, thank

you very much. all right. let's talk. one of the main factors in all of this that is jobs and layoffs. because while the number of people filing for unemployment benefits fell by only 21,000 last week, not a lot job losses are accelerating in both the private and the public sectors. claims by federal workers now at their highest level in four years. of course, this is on top of huge federal worker job gains over the past ten years. you see that carry the one. all right. let's try to make sense of all that's happening right now. joining us evan stone. he is the ceo of aura intelligence. and on set with us here cnbc senior economics reporter steve liesman with us. all right steve, it is a little bit confusing. short term job losses, long term job job gains through the pandemic and all that stuff in into sort of the mix. where do we stand right now? >> we stand on the edge of a whole bunch of confusion. the story, brian, i think, is that we're going to have a large number of layoffs in the federal

government. the effort to try to quantify that is very difficult. today, we found out 172,000 announced layoffs, the largest number of which coming from the federal government, which includes private federal contractors. so now we're trying to get a bead on, okay, how many are going to be released from the federal government? and then the more the key, the more key question is what happens in the private sector? my calculations, brian, show that government workers this is fate. this is state, local and federal as a percentage of total workers. that's the orange line has actually gone down. we've hired more people. but the but the economy has grown. and if you take that blue line right, you have a dip there for the pandemic and then it comes back. and your point was that it's come back pretty strongly. we're still pretty much on the same growth line as you would expect. not that there isn't waste in the government, not that we can't fire certain people and make some efficiencies out of government, but government hiring and the level of total

government employment is not out of line. historically, as the economy grows and total private sector employment grows, you would expect as well the federal government and all government employment. >> yeah. and, evan, i think what's worrying for the market, i don't want to speak for the whole market. but i think what's worrying for the market is this idea that, yeah, the private sector, some parts, software developers, whatever have been pretty weak the last year. a lot of we've covered all those layoff announcements. federal government employment is always kind of been a strong suit. and whatever you think about that politically is not the point. that number has held up. it doesn't appear to be. now, are you worried about this? if so, how worried or if not, why not? >> yeah. >> so first of. >> all. >> thanks for having me back. good to see you. >> good to see. >> you. >> covering this segment and good to see you. >> steve i agree. >> you know you look at this. this is always about job creation right. tomorrow's number is about how many jobs are created in february. and

we've been saying for a long time, even on this show, that the government was doing a lot of those jobs. and we really felt that the government. >> every month. >> was increasing those jobs. and if you look at the data post-pandemic, government lost 1.5 million jobs or in that number, the bulk of which were actually. local jobs, teachers, etc, on the local level. and if you look at the data, we recovered from that around november of 22 got created those. that we recovered around november 22nd, since november 22nd has just been about job creation in the government sector, with the federal government being about 29% of those increases. so about 1.5 million jobs were added cumulatively since, let's say, let's call it a zero mark of january 2019. so we're up 1.5 million now. steve, i completely agree with you. as as jobs are being created throughout the private sector, you would expect some public sector to be doing that, but certainly not at the levels. so what we worry about is not just the that the government's been doing some of those numbers. you're going to see. higher quit rates, sort of

departure rates. and where do these people go. so they're going to start filling up slots in the private sector. >> and we. >> know, as you mentioned before, brian. >> that certainly. >> there's still a demand for the higher skilled labor, the software engineers. and we're tracking all this. these reports are all available for free on our website or intelligence. com we're tracking ai jobs, software engineering jobs. so you're seeing that information really, really happening. >> i don't disagree with evan's numbers. in fact, my numbers show the exact same issue that government employment has been a big part of. what's happening. the question is, what's the right level and the expectation? you shouldn't expect government jobs not to grow because the economy grows. and if it doesn't grow, then your service worsens. and i'm again, not arguing there isn't fat in the government that can't be cut. i think there's a process question here as to how the cutting is happening that a lot of people take issue with. >> here's here's what i worry about vis a vis federal job cuts. and again, there's two arguments that we're having or debates that the market is having. one of them has nothing to do with this segment about

whether or not there's fat in the government. okay. i'm sure there is. there's fat in private sector too. so let's put that aside. apollo, last week, i think it was steve pointed out that for every one government job, there's like two private sector jobs that are sort of attached to that job. so is the great variable here. if we get a big round of federal job cuts, could that whack also a lot of private sector workers who don't work for the government but work for firms that work for the government? >> absolutely. >> the booz allen's of the world. >> very smart question. it's a really interesting way to think about it. and my guess is evan is thinking about it, too. i'll give you some numbers. federal government's 3 million, local governments, 15 million. state. it's 5 million now, a piece that was put together by evercore isi suggests there may be as 4 to 5 million private sector jobs that are out there that are in some

way connected to government spending. so the idea is sort of two questions you're asking because there's two things happening. one is this decline of government spending. the other is decline of government employment. so in any way there is a large there are a large number of jobs out there that are connected to government spending that could be at risk here with what's happening from the trump administration. and a big question is going to be where and how and when do those jobs show up? there are local government jobs that are going to be affected by the decline in federal spending, because some of the government spending comes down and is appropriated to the states. we don't know how much of that is going to be at risk here. >> yeah, it's a great variable there. >> by the way, is the evercore isi estimate if you could see it. but they have a low end estimate of 50,000. they have a worst case scenario where they have this thing called d.o.j. policy uncertainty. government contractors don't hire. yeah. so you could lose 660,000. a lot of economists that i've said have the total job losses, around 250

to 300,000. >> that's a massive variable, evan. what steve is showing by the way, and if you're on the radio, evercore is saying job losses could be somewhere between 50,000 or 660,000. that's that's like pick a number between 2 and 812. steve. yeah. >> i'll give you another another way to look at it. and steve, i totally align with you. you know, if you looked at the overall percentage of the economy that are being employed by the government, whether it's federal, state or local, and now you're going to see cost reduction, you're going to see labor reductions. let's look at the lens of a year ago or two years ago, where many companies were laying off individuals to right size, their overall companies themselves, and there was significant impact, but it actually happened over a period of time. remember when we would talk about that this quarter? we're looking at the technology group sort of lining themselves up the next quarter. you're seeing the manufacturing lining themselves up. the next quarter. you saw automakers. it was this rolling, rolling cost reductions, rolling layoffs that you really saw throughout really

a year and a half. and what i think worries folks, me and steve, is that this government layoff is going to happen at a much faster pace, and you're going to see we're not going to be able to absorb those individuals. and the ripple effect on those things. you know, a factory shutting down in a town doesn't just affect the laborers that work at the factory. they affect the restaurants, the all the other services that are around that actual fact that are around that factory. >> brian, can you look at the shot and know what city that is? do you know? i don't know, don't tell us. >> don't say anything. is that water? it looks. >> like water in the background there. >> is that honolulu? >> yeah i. >> wish no, it looks. >> san francisco, san francisco. >> i wasn't far. >> i don't know that building there. okay. so brian i want to. evans the guy to recap. >> evans the one at work in his office in san francisco. he's the. >> one a little bit in the jobs report tomorrow from doge a bunch in march and april. and then as the year goes by, for example, these people who are getting severance, they wouldn't

be unemployed and reported having lost their job until the severance ends. so that means you could have a in other words, people who are on this, this deferred severance from the government, as long as they're getting that severance and it would still be considered employed. so that means there's another wave of reduction in federal spending and federal employment that will happen in the fall. so. >> i mean, don't tell anybody. >> that's right. but. >> you know, we got we got evan. we got quick quickly, we got to go. but go ahead get it in. >> yeah. they're being they're still on the payroll. right. but the support individuals that are supporting those folks, they're, they're going to suffer much faster. >> right. well we got the big jobs number. we'll see you again tomorrow morning. yeah. 8:30 a.m. eastern time. that monthly jobs number rolls out. all right. so, folks, it is an ugly day for most stocks. and your money, the nasdaq is down about 2.5%. about 90% of the nasdaq 100 is lower right now. that's 90 out of 100 stocks. but your next guest, one of them, says take a step back, take a breath

and dig. and dig does not mean grab a shovel. it means look for dividends. international and gold. joining us now, victoria greene, cio at g squared private wealth and a cnbc contributor as well. so why victoria this dig what makes gold or international so attractive right now. >> i think it's. unequivocally risk off right now. >> so you're looking for somewhere. >> to hide a little bit, which i think. >> dividends are attractive. value stocks haven't moved up. >> they weren't as expensive. you're looking to hide somewhere you want to play defense right now. get your health your staples or your utilities that are not power focused, not ai focused. and find yourself some quality companies. sit around, clip your coupon a little bit, and let this all play out in front of you. unequivocably international is running, and it's something you might want to have a little bit more of a foothold in this year than you had last year. and then gold has just been a great hedge, and i think uncertainty is going to continue to rise as we play this

chicken game of will we won't we. tariffs. so i look at those three sectors and i am i'm kind of like shaft right now. can you dig it. absolutely. >> well okay fair enough i can dig it. and what i'm digging is this i'm maybe not i don't want to say dig like i agree, but i get what you're putting down, which is this. when i hear a guest come on and say, well, you should go to dividends. maybe some international and particularly gold victoria, to me it kind of signals a little nervousness. >> absolutely. it's testing our mettle right now. and i'm not saying you give up. i'm not saying you sell out, but i'm saying, look, we're testing the 200 day moving average. there's huge supports here. there's a lot of question if the trump put does or does not exist, is he going to let markets fall below pre-election levels? we're flirting with that right now. it's 57. 12 was the day before the election. you've got the 57, 3200 day moving average. we can breach below it. we did that in the fall of 2023. but right now there's risk off and risk off in the technology sector. i don't think ai is dead. i do think it could continue to consolidate and see near term pressure. so yeah, i want to hide in a little

bit of quality right now i think risk off. we're down what, 7% from our highs a little bit could accelerate a little bit further. so add these sections to your portfolio. other than seven stocks. >> you were getting ready. i don't know if you heard the gang on on halftime, but it was a really interesting there's always interesting points made at halftime. but they made a point that the trade, i think it was josh brown who made the point that the trade from last year, 2003, was kind of over like, you know, just things go down. guess what? yeah, screw it, i'm going to buy the mag seven or buy nvidia and it'll go up. that's probably over. would you agree? >> i don't think it's dead. i'm not hurrying to deploy capital because i think you could have a little bit further to go. i think if you back that qq chart out, you back that nvidia chart out and you say, look long term buying has been successful for ten, 20 years. if you're calling ai is dead then you're calling this exceptionalism. us bubble is dead. and i don't think we're there yet. i think you could actually see this volatility persist and a little bit more near-term pressure. but your long term supports to me are still intact. so i'm not throwing in the towel on

technology. and we'll see i mean broadcom is after close today. and then you also have costco reporting. both of those are huge names on consumer sentiment and what's happening with ai and chips. but again today's pressure on ai marvel wasn't a bad result right. that was some of the huge thing causing the sell off today. they beat on expectations and their guidance was in line. it's not like they missed. it's just right now i think you're seeing this sentiment risk off, which when it's like this, i say, yeah, it's viable. it's not that the fundamentals have deteriorated in these companies. you just aren't seeing these blowout earnings reports because expectations are so much higher. >> yeah it is. and it's a heck of a day. and we're seeing the nasdaq down about 2.5% right now a lot of stuff is down a lot of confusion out there victoria thank you very much. all right. let's keep this conversation going folks. joining us on set is aaron dun. he is fund manager and head of value equity at morgan stanley investment management. his fund outperforming the s&p 500 so far this year. and aaron that is not easy an easy thing to do. so welcome. how have you done it. do you think the investing

narrative that we just talked about victoria has indeed changed? >> definitely. we were on. >> last late last. >> year and we talked about this, and this was the sort. >> of crowding in the us equity markets. >> right. and so really when you look at what's been going. >> on in the. >> markets. >> it's been. >> this reversal of what's happened in the last two years. right. >> values outperformed, growth. international has outperformed. >> so a lot of. >> the. >> things that we. >> believe are very. >> crowded have just. >> simply reversed. >> at this point. and even earlier. >> this week when the market got into a lot of volatility, it was a lot of risk positioning. it wasn't really a wholesale sale of the market. we would argue today is a little more breadth in the market in terms of selling. >> but on monday. >> we could we could show you stocks that had not. >> done really well. >> that did extremely well. right. so those are risk desks. >> that are readjusting. >> sort of risk and portfolios. >> across readjusting from what to what from a. position of owning. leaning into mach seven versus, you know, shorting other, other industries wherever that is. that was reversing. right. and so we've seen that. >> reversing and. that's been

going on. >> all year. >> what we're seeing. >> today seems a little more broad based to me. it seems a little more of a liquidation piece. >> which is the market. >> in my view. >> even in the last. >> year was very, very, very. focused on us equities, right? >> us equities have massively outperformed. they were a huge. >> part of the. international markets. right. there are 70% of msci. so we're very. crowded trade. and what we're. >> seeing is the unwanted that. >> and so we think it probably has more to go. >> but i don't believe this. >> is the end of us equity performance i mean that's hard to say. yeah it's hard to say. >> you never know because you never know what's. >> behind all these. right. >> you don't know where leverage. >> positions are. you don't know where the where the. bodies are headed so to. >> speak. >> in the market. so i'm going to say something. i'm going to say something so you don't have to. some of this is healthy and i don't i don't want to see anybody lose any money. but i've been doing this almost 30 years. and when i see companies trading at 50 times sales or 75 times projected earnings, right. unless the world has fundamentally changed. and by

the way, with ai, i think there are parts of the world that have and will fundamentally change. but to your point, so many people were stampeding into the can we throw mongodb up here? and i'm not knocking mongodb, by the way. best name company i think mongodb, right. stocks down 23% because a lot of these super high value, super high momentum super profitable names. to your point, i think aaron got way too crowded. exactly right. and i don't like that attitude where things will never go down. is there any truth? you can interview me now? is there any truth to what i'm saying? >> i think this is extremely healthy, actually, and there's a lot of good businesses who are just. not getting focus from investors because everyone's really crowded into the. mag seven. they're crowded into the technology trade. right. and so. >> there's not an infinite valuation we can put on these equities. so we really. >> want to focus on businesses that we would call all weather businesses in the market that can whatever the volatility is from the administration, it's going to be daily until we get

any certainty. the market does not like uncertainty. >> so you're. seeing the. unwind of that. and we think. >> it's very healthy. >> in sort of. >> reestablishing positions. >> in what. >> i would. >> call all weather companies. here's what here's what's a little confusing for those of us on this side of the camera, which is that lower rates were supposed to be good for equities. but yet now we're in a world where, as steve liesman would have told you, rate cut probabilities are rising, the bond market is shifting, rates are coming down. and yet equities are not responding. >> yeah. >> but it. >> was always wire rates down right. >> it was never. >> a blanket statement. >> of if rates. are down that's good equity okay. >> well let's talk about why rates are down. our rates. >> down because it's a defensive trade. >> on the short end of the yield. >> curve i. >> would tell. >> you that's what it is today right. >> even the ten year has now gone down. so there's. >> a defensive layering on. >> in the fixed income. >> market that's. >> coming out of the equity markets. >> people are rebalancing those

portfolios. so i would say. >> for that reason. >> it's not bullish equities. now if you said. >> the fed. >> thread the needle and. >> we had great growth and there. >> was, you know, potential to reduce rates to help. >> the housing market whatever. that's i think that's great equities. but that's not where we are today. it's always the why not necessarily the what. good point aaron done. really appreciate your views. thank you. thank you very much. all right folks we are just getting started on deck. we'll call it another d word that is delinquencies. more on real world data around car and home loans that you've got to hear. plus some semiconductor stocks doing something that they have not done in nearly two years. markets down big. we're back right after this. >> this is the exchange on cnbc. >> the number of public companies is shrinking. while the number of private companies is increasing. at franklin templeton we are expanding access to the growing opportunity in private markets, offering the potential for greater diversification and

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omni lux ledcom. >> all right, welcome back. household debt is hovering near a record high. you know that. but you also know that a percent as a percentage of income, that debt load has mostly been manageable. high debt. but guess what? we can afford it. but now some of that is beginning to change. for more on both the housing and car stories, let's bring in diana olick and phil lebeau. diana, let's start with you. what are you seeing in one particularly? call it fragile, part of the mortgage market. >> well, brian, the mortgage delinquency. >> rate. >> you know, has been really low for nearly a decade. and aside from a very brief jump at the start of the pandemic before those government forbearance programs, it's now sitting at just 3.98% overall that

according to the mortgage bankers association, compare that to just. >> over 10%. >> back in 2010, during. >> the subprime crisis. the mortgage. >> landscape, i'm saying is quite healthy with one major red flag. fha loans, their delinquency rate, while always higher, has been rising recently, now. hitting 11.3%, and that is the highest since 2013. here's why. all of the stresses in life we're seeing right now. a little bit. >> of softening. >> in the job market. >> we're seeing big jumps in insurance premiums. >> as a result of all of the hazards out there, whether it be wildfires, hurricanes, what have you. all of that leading to some stress. >> fha attracts first time buyers with lower incomes and credit scores. the fha down payment requirement is just 3.5%, and borrowers can carry higher. debt compared to their income, that so-called dti. and that's because fha borrowers have to pay mortgage insurance. but fha recently lowered that insurance premium, which brought in more borrowers that resulted

in higher credit levels of the entire program. but that debt to income is still very high, and that's because of inflation and affordability, high home prices. the nba is also reporting a big jump in buyers of newly built homes going to fha. it's gone from 10% just a few years ago to 30% today. and i'll say it again, brian, because of high home prices. >> there we go. all right, diana, thank you very much. now let's turn to the car side and phil lebeau. phil, how many people are really starting to fall behind on car payments? >> it's at a record level when it comes to 60 day delinquencies. this is fresh data from experian. it's for the fourth quarter. that's the most recent data as they analyze about 81 million open auto loans. and it shows that when it comes to 60 day delinquencies, the delinquency rate of 0.99%, that's a new record high. they've never seen it that high. 30 day delinquency rate of 3.17. that is the highest since the recession back in 2009. a big

part of what's happening here is that the higher priced vehicles, and we've talked about this for some time in terms of average transaction prices for many people, they're increasingly struggle to make these payments. the average auto loan right now, according to experian, a little over $41,700, the average monthly payment is now 742. by the way, both of those are close to the all time high. they're not all time highs, but they're darn close to it. as you take a look at the auto dealership stocks, keep in mind that the. interest rate has come down. that is some good news compared to the third quarter and compared to q4 of 2023. now down to 6.35%. but the big question is going to be, as you take a look at gm, ford and stellantis, what happens after april 2nd? we know they got a reprieve. all of those companies that have usmca compliant vehicles built in mexico and canada, those post those tariffs have been postponed until april 2nd. but the uncertainty is out there,

brian. and the expectation is that if we see tariffs put in place permanently, then you're going to see higher prices in dealerships. and car prices like homes also stubbornly high. phil lebeau, thank you very much. all right folks. a lot of tough stuff for the consumer. but it's not all bad news out there, at least not for now. bj's wholesale club, the big retailer hitting an all time high. they reported better than expected comparisons and strong traffic. they did talk about the potential fallout from tariffs on the call. but of course they were focused on things like delivering value. hey bj's. one name that is up to date. let's talk about that and more in the consumer. joining us now is laura champine, director of research and senior consumer analyst at loop capital markets. laura bj's. it's nice. it's good to have. it's good news. is that an isolated case or is, you know, the market reacting the right way to real worries around the consumer. >> so brian i don't think it's

isolated. >> you can look across my coverage. i also cover off price. >> and burlington's. up almost 10% today on an earnings. beat too. we've got a. >> customer who is focused in on value. they typically are. but given. >> this year's. >> a. little more. >> inflationary than most. >> of us would have hoped. >> i think that trend. >> is going to accelerate. so a company like bj's, where. you save 25% as their promise, i think usually it's much more than that. it's the right place to be in grocery today. >> yeah. bj's obviously these are these are big stores like a sam's club. like a costco in a way membership organizations. so the model is very different. but here's what's confusing, laura i can look at 100 retail stocks. 50 of them are down pretty big the last year 50 or higher. how much does does management matter right now and who's doing it really well. >> you know to your to your point brian i think costco is considered the best management team in retail. but you got to

look at the business model. it's the model that matters. so it's not just growth that we value stocks on it's risk. and these warehouse clubs, the majority of their income comes from membership fees. their consumers very rarely rotate off the memberships because they save so much money. so that sort of annuitized income stream is a rarity, which is why you see such high multiples on companies like costco or, you know, its little brother, bj's wholesale. having a good day today. >> let's talk about cruise lines. you actually also cover them. so they're their consumer. they're not stores but will actually maybe they are floating stores on the water. now laura who knows a lot of these companies like royal caribbean, they've been hit because there's fear that this new a new tax. they're all, you know, flagged in the bahamas and, you know, solomon islands, wherever it might be. and there's concerns about a new tax coming. has the market maybe overreacted a little bit to those concerns? >> you know, we just raised our

rating on royal caribbean a couple of days ago because the stock had traded down nearly 15% in a month on those tax concerns. we think over time investors are going to pay for growth. and the entire cruise line industry is about 5% of travel. orlando alone is 17%. and once again, a trade down or a more value oriented option. cruises, on average, are 25% cheaper than land based vacations. if you look at a disney world seven day vacation, compare it to a seven day caribbean cruise. the cruise is half the price and arguably easier to execute, so we think cruise lines, as they start to use technology better. rcl royal caribbean is replacing its reservation system that's almost 30 years old. we think new technology is going to drive more people to the cruise industry, and we like it as a as one of these rare pockets of growth in consumer discretionary this year. >> good stuff. laura champine loop capital markets looking at

the everything from wholesale clubs to cruise lines. laura only you. thank you very much. thanks, brian. on deck. wall street's number one internet analyst. evercore is mark mahaney making this name his new top pick after falling 15% from a record high. the name and the a record high. the name and the reason at ameriprise financial we know our clients are so much more than clients. they're go-getters and game-changers, legacy-leavers and visionaries, healers and confidants. the goals that matter most to you matter most to us. helping you achieve them is what we do best. with personal financial advice from an advisor you can trust, and goal-based investing and solutions. it's no wonder we have a 4.9 out of five client satisfaction rating. ameriprise financial advice worth talking about. it all started with a small business idea. it's a pillow with a speaker in it! that's right craig.

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breaking numbers and the read through for the whole semiconductor space john fort morgan brennan closing bell overtime today for cnbc. >> all right welcome back. let's talk semiconductors once one of the hottest investments in the entire market. now the group is being tossed around with the term death cross. kristina partsinevelos is here now with what is driving the selloff as part of today's tech check. and can also explain what the death cross. and every time i say death cross, i'm going to say it like that. >> really dramatic and somber, i hope. but chip stocks i got to talk about just chip stocks in general. the paradox that's really facing this sector. you have. >> strong performance. >> is being punished instead of rewarded. and it's beyond chips. it's i for that matter. but semiconductors right now are among today's worst performers in both the s&p and the nasdaq. so you just mentioned the sm the 50 day moving average is falling below the 200 day moving

average. so technically that is called a death cross. it's a technical term. and typically all you need to know is it signals further drops ahead. it may not always be right, but it's usually a scary sign. hence the term. but custom chip maker marvell technology really is epitomizing this trend. i mentioned they beat on earnings last night, as well as guidance, only to see its stock plunge 17%. the main excuse the numbers weren't as high as institutional investors had hoped. or you could say buy side bogey numbers, whatever you want to call it. or as wells fargo put it in a note today, stocks are going to stonk. but this is an unwarranted reaction in my view. same story, though, with optical supplier credo technology. they had revenue growth. they beat guidance. the stock dropped 14% yesterday, down another 12% today. even industry leaders aren't immune. both nvidia and amd reported earnings and forecast higher than estimate. yet you saw their stocks retreat after the earnings report and investors really nitpicking details like gross margins for

nvidia. nvidia right now you can see is just down quite a bit. having the biggest point impact on the nasdaq 100 today. you got broadcom another drag on the nasdaq today. in terms of a point waiting stance. it stands poised for similar treatment after hours. today their earnings are out. the stock carries a valuation higher than nvidia. adding another layer of investor hesitation going into this name. so many argue the strong fundamentals for chips as a whole are already priced in, while new regulatory concerns like tariffs, chip bans, ai diffusion rules really keep investors cautious. brian. and in today's hyper scrutinized market, stellar performance no longer guarantees enthusiasm. it's almost expected. >> death cross. kristina partsinevelos. thank you. thank you. well, nvidia is part of the so-called magnificent seven stocks. but it is not just semiconductors selling off. in fact, six of the magnificent seven are down this year. the only one that's not is meta. and by the way, could be after

today. but your next guest says enough may be enough. he now moves amazon to his number one top pick. that, by the way, was indeed our mystery chart. let's welcome in mark mahaney. he is head of internet research at evercore isi. mark, good to have you on. why amazon. why the move. why now? >> well, because we've got two product. interested in two ways that the narrative could change on the stock. and then you've got a p e multiple that's at a record low for the name. so that's the that's the interesting setup for me. it's a 25 times earnings i think that's the cheapest multiple you've ever had a chance of looking at amazon at. here are the two product catalysts coming up. we've got a kuiper launch. so you know this is going to be a long term build. she really intrigued by amazon's ability to succeed in broadband satellite internet access or satellite internet access. i think there's a really interesting market that starlink has showed us. and then you've got alexa plus coming to your alexa device, and there's 600 million of these worldwide.

so i think there's a kind of an interesting trojan horse out there that. could get denied and become a lot more useful. and then in terms of the narrative shifting, i'm particularly intrigued by the ability of aws, their cloud business, to re accelerate in the back half of the year. i spent a lot of time with private companies here in san francisco in the, in the, in the valley, and we're seeing just dramatic growth rates for some of these private companies in terms of ramping up their revenue. and that at the application layer. and i think aws is the company that those app runners are most relying on. and i think that's that's going to start showing up in the numbers. and if you get an acceleration in the highest margin business at amazon, that's a good thing. you want to buy the stock ahead of that. so yeah that's why it's our top pick here. best risk reward i think in large cap tech. >> do you want to point out that on a macro level the nasdaq is at session lows right now we're down 2.75%. nearly 3%. last time i checked, 91 of the nasdaq 100 were indeed lower today. so a broad based selloff. mark, i know you're not like a macro

markets guy, but amazon's a massive part of it and hundreds of different etfs. what do you think is going on right now. >> well we started. >> the year brian coming in with multiples valuations that were reasonably full. i looked at the internet space i cover and. >> there really was very little dislocation. there was only one hq dislocated high quality name that was uber. that was our top pick at the beginning of the year. and it's, you know, surged 25%. but the other. >> names. >> yeah you really had you know low valuations. and then you printed december quarters that were good better than expected. but the march quarter guidance for most of the names for a variety of different reasons was a little soft, a little mixed. so there really wasn't an incremental reason to buy the stock. and now you're for some of these names like amazon that does have some tariff exposure. i think they've hedged it pretty well. but you know, that is a fundamental issue for voters or anybody that's working cross border. so yeah, you've had a couple of issues like that. i think that's kind of a technical. >> or valuations. mark. >> what. >> do you think i'm sorry to jump in valuations. do you think

we're we're simply too high given the guidance. >> i think valuations were full and that's how i phrased it for most of the stocks. again there are a few exceptions here. but you know for the for the stocks to keep going. if estimates didn't move you needed to have clean beat and raised quarters for multiples to expand. i looked at these as quality compounders stocks that would go up on the earnings growth, not on a multiple rerating, and you've had nothing but a multiple d rating, or especially in the last week or two. i think that's called a little disturbance. >> well, i also like rolling out the hq dislocated high quality. i'm sure you still like the uber but amazon the top pick mark mahaney, evercore isi mark, thank you. thank you. on deck some mexico tariffs delayed. some canadian tariffs could be delayed. president trump saying talks are ongoing with canadian prime minister justin trudeau. that's giving some home builders a little bit of a boost. one company could actually benefit

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make official. >> start your will at. >> trust and wilcom. >> now and make it count. >> all right. welcome back. well, terra fires are all the worry on wall street right now. there are some companies that might benefit from tariffs. one of those could be trex. they compete with real wood with lumber and you sustainable wood alternatives to make decking and other products. and by the way, a minimum of 95% of the product is made from recycled materials from the united states. they also happen to be based in the great city of winchester, virginia. just a couple of miles of where i went to high school. joining us now is the ceo of trex, brian fairbanks. brian, i could talk to you about winchester all day, but let's talk about something more relevant. is there a scenario where you and your company, because you're not a tree, you're not using trees, could benefit from a tariff? >> yeah, there's. >> a possibility. >> if we see the tariffs come

through, lumber prices could increase considerably from that pressure. treated southern pine canadian lumber that comes down across the border. if we were to see that go up to $1.20, $1.40 a linear foot, we have entry level products that sell around $1.60. during the pandemic, we saw wood selling at about $1.60. we were selling at a similar price. since we have taken pricing through that time, our entry level is about $2 now, but we could see a tightening of that price spread between wood and trex decking. >> or is it a situation where just macroeconomic fears pause home projects hurting? at trex. >> there's always that concern where there's so much economic noise that's out there right now, the market going up, the market going down, tariffs in, tariffs out. you do wonder how does that impact the consumer at the end of the day. on the positive side we've had two years in a row of negative repair and remodel. so there is starting to become. >> a what does that mean.

negative repairs. >> negative growth. in repair and remodel spending. >> that doesn't sound good. >> no, it does not. but the good news is it doesn't usually go for three years and you start to end up having pent up demand projects that have not been done that need to be done. and one of the things about wood decks, there's 50 to 60 million decks out there. roughly half of them are at or beyond their life. so those will start to be replaced and should be a continued driver for the industry. >> how much of that was just kind of like almost. i hate to use the term panic projects, but just like covid can't do anything. let's let's build a deck on the house because we're we're stuck at home. >> yeah, well, people, they were at home and there was a lot of wood decks being replaced with. >> interest rates. money was cheap sloshing around. >> they were using their own labor to do that. our contractors are busy as well. today, our contractors remain very busy. and the diy business we did see strengthening in that in the fourth quarter. on a sequential basis. >> what's the most important thing for investors in your company? is it interest rates? is it the strength of the housing? is it something else. overall repair. >> and remodel.

>> and the turnover of existing homes? so that's going to be driven by, of course, interest rates. and then people having that desire to move on to the next best thing that's out there. >> well, a lot of people have moved to winchester. it was a relatively small town when i graduated. now it's effectively a suburb of d.c. is there turnover happening? >> yeah, we are starting to see a number of houses increase in winchester, but around the country we've seen us come off of a low, roughly about 3.8 million of existing home sales on an annualized basis. that's in the low fours at this point. to get to a healthy level, we've got to get well over 5 million. again. >> just being based in one of the fastest growing areas of the united states. but you do business all over the united states. so we want to see the rest of the country get winchester. how about that? brian fairbanks, great to have you on. great to see you in person. great. thanks. i know exactly how you're going home, brian. thank you. all right, folks, that does it for the folks, that does it for the exchange. i will see it all started with a small business idea. it's a pillow with a speaker in it! that's right craig. pulling in the perfect team to get the job done.

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