up don't let a cry for help go by. [music playing] >> good morning and welcome to street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum, and these are your headlines this friday morning. >> european equities see their biggest weekly inflow. >> in years. >> as president trump. pauses some tariffs on canada and mexico. >> backtracking for a second time this week. >> u.s. majors look to regain. >> ground as trump. promises the decision has. nothing to do with the. >> stock market reaction. >> there are. >> no delays at all, no nothing. >> to. >> do with the market. >> i'm not even looking. >> at the market. >> because long term, the united states will be very strong with

what's. >> happening here. >> treasury secretary scott. >> benson will speak with our u.s. colleagues at. midday today. eu leaders back an ■k7800 billion plan to boost. >> defense spending. >> but opposition from hungary blocks a unanimous show of support for ukraine. commission president ursula von der leyen says the continent is stepping up. history is being written. >> we are coming. >> out of. >> this. >> european council. >> very determined to. >> ensure europe's security and to act with the scale, the. speed and the resolve that the situation demands. >> germany's dax pulling back from record highs. >> after industrial. >> orders come in way short of expectations. >> the ecb's. >> mario centeno sounds the alarm on the. >> potential impact. >> of tariffs. >> as the bank cuts by another 25. >> basis points. >> tariffs are a tax. >> they are. >> a tax on both consumption and production. and we do know that taxes have.

>> a very clear. >> impact on the economy. no one will end up gaining. >> and nonfarm payrolls. >> are. >> expected to. >> tick higher today. >> as traders. >> bet whether they'll get a repeat of. wednesday's shock adp miss. a very. >> warm welcome. >> to the program. our top story. >> this morning once again tariffs. us president trump. has again backtracked on. >> his trade. tariff strategy. >> announcing a. >> one month reprieve. >> for mexican and. canadian goods that fall under the terms of the usmca. trade deal he signed. >> off on in 2020. >> a white house. >> official told cnbc. >> that about. >> half of mexican imports and 38% of canadian imports. >> will be covered. >> trump's erratic trade policy has. >> sparked volatility across. >> markets. >> with wall street. >> set for its worst. week of 2025. >> the president. >> was asked about. >> the. >> market fallout and whether investors. >> were spooked by by tariffs. >> a lot of. them are. globalist

countries and companies that. won't be doing as well, because. >> we're taking. >> back things that have been taken from us many. >> years ago. >> we've been treated very. unfairly as a country. we protect everybody. >> we do everything. for all. these countries. >> and a lot of. >> these are globalist in nature. you know. they have if. you're outside of the united states. >> you know. >> it's going to be a little bit different. >> we just weren't. >> treated right. >> we were ripped. >> off as a country. >> i've been saying it for. >> a long time. >> it feels like markets were somewhat. >> rattled by those comments from president. >> trump that he's not too. >> bothered about. >> the market reaction. >> there has been this narrative that president. >> trump will be constrained. by markets in terms of how far he'll be willing to push this tariff trade policy. if we see an outsized sell off in us stocks. >> for example, will he rein in. what he's doing. >> on the trade front? he seemed to brush. >> off those concerns. >> and perhaps that contributed to the weakness we saw on wall street yesterday and. >> the weakness.

>> we're now seeing in europe. ftse 100 down 4/10 of a percent. right now. the xetra dax. >> also pulling back. >> underperforming the broader european market down about 1.3%. but let's remember the dax has. >> been. >> an extraordinary. >> performer, closing. >> at. another record. >> high yesterday. >> the xetra dax closed off about 1.5% while the stoxx. >> 600 closed flat. so that's the context. >> for today's trade. looking at the sectors this morning. on the upside, we've got some bidding coming in for the more defensive part of the market. utilities, telcos and media all. >> trading in the green. >> outside of those sectors though, it is a red. start to. >> trade today. >> the laggards in the sector. here's a look for you. >> household goods. >> down 1.8% within that. >> basket of stocks. >> it is the luxury. names that are. underperforming today. luxury names under selling. >> pressure on the back of some weak. >> data out of. >> china overnight. >> autos also underperforming down 1.5%. travel and leisure. construction and industrials. >> so the. >> names that performed quite well in. >> recent trade. >> those cyclical. >> more risk on assets are selling off today. >> now let's go to the us. close

and how wall street ended up. yesterday the dow lost about a 1%. the s&p pulled back 1.8% and. the nasdaq dropped 2.6%. we are in correction territory now for that tech heavy index. it was the s&p consumer discretionary index that had its worst day so far this year, down 2.9%. that drove the losses in the s&p yesterday. now i. >> think it's worth taking a step back. >> and looking at. >> where we have traveled in. >> us stocks. >> and in european stocks last year. this is a look at how things. >> fare, how things evolved. >> last year. this blue line. >> s&p 500. >> it rallied 23% in 2020 for. >> stoxx 600. it gained just 6%. so us outperformance. why was that. well investors were. positioning for us exceptionalism to be the trade of the year this year, trying to get those trades in place to benefit from the trump administration. putting america first. >> now this year. >> a very different story.

>> european equities have seen. >> their largest. >> four week inflow in. >> almost a decade. >> and their largest. >> weekly inflow since february 2020. that's according to data from bank of america. here is the picture. >> for. >> 2025 s&p 500. the blue line down 2.4%. stoxx 600, up nearly 9%. investors have been realigning their trades to try to get involved in this european. >> risk on trade, as. europe has. >> really stepped up in the face of pressure from president trump, stepped up on the fiscal side, stepped up with. >> defense, infrastructure. >> spending and more. now back to today's trade. >> us futures at the moment. are positive. we've got. >> the dow. >> the nasdaq and. >> the s&p all looking. >> to bounce. >> back after. yesterday's selling as the nfp report comes to. >> the fore. that's going to be key. >> for the market today. now speaking to cnbc, commerce secretary howard. >> lutnick dismissed. >> concerns over trump's trade policies, saying he backs the president's approach. >> the president is focused on rebuilding america and you are going to see growth in america. you're going to see an interest

rate. when we balance the budget of the united states, you're going to see interest rates drop 1% or more. you're going to see the stock market explode. and if it doesn't do it tomorrow, that's because people just don't understand that they should be betting on donald trump. if i were them and i were your viewers, i would understand. the long term trade of donald trump is you bet on him and he is a winner and he is going to win for america. >> the treasury secretary will join our us colleagues today. >> ahead of the non-farm. >> payrolls report. that interview with. >> scott. >> bessent is coming up at. 12:00 gmt. >> president zelenskyy says ukrainian and us. >> delegations will meet. >> in saudi arabia. >> next week. in a statement on his. >> telegram channel, zelenskyy said. >> ukraine would work. >> constructively for a, quote. >> quick and reliable peace. >> he is scheduled. >> to meet the saudi crown prince on monday ahead of those negotiations. eu leaders have backed a proposal. >> to. >> boost defense. >> spending across. the bloc. >> the european council called for the commission to urgently

enact the plan, which. >> could mobilize. >> as much as ■k7800 billion. bt leaders could not. >> reach agreement. >> on ukraine with. >> hungarian prime minister. >> viktor orban opposing language, pledging more military aid and setting out conditions for peace talks. text that was instead issued by the other 26 leaders at the summit. sylvia filed this report from brussels. >> european leaders. >> have agreed. >> on new. >> measures to. >> step up. >> defense spending. >> among those are. >> ■k7150 billion. >> in new. >> loans that the member states. >> will be able to. >> use exactly. >> to spend more on defense. but now. >> technical work on all of these. measures will be. >> developed over the coming weeks, including next week. by the finance ministers. >> none the less. >> the president of the european. commission said that what we witnessed. >> yesterday was a. >> historic moment for. >> the eu. >> today. >> history is being written. we are coming out of this european council. very determined to

ensure europe's security and to act. with the scale, the speed and the resolve. >> that this situation demands. we are determined. >> to invest. >> more. >> to invest better and to invest faster together. from paris to london to. >> brussels, we have shown. >> that we are willing and. able to step up our joint efforts and to coordinate effectively. >> however. >> eu leaders could not. >> show unanimous. >> support for ukraine. >> at this summit. >> the prime minister of hungary, viktor orban, was against showing any sort of new support for. >> kyiv. >> in a letter. >> seen by cnbc. >> the prime minister of hungary made the point. >> that the. >> eu should follow the example of. >> the united states and. >> enter direct. >> conversations with russia. >> but of course, the other 26 members of the eu. >> disagree with that language.

>> and last. >> we had the chance to hear from. >> the president of ukraine. >> volodymyr zelensky was. >> here in brussels. >> and this was his message to the eu leaders before the meeting. >> during all. >> this. >> period and. >> last week. >> you stay. >> with us, and of course, from all the ukrainians, from all our nations. >> big appreciations. >> we are very. >> thankful that. >> we are not alone. >> and these are not just words. >> we feel it as signals. >> to increase. >> our production and signals to with a new program. >> to. >> increase the. european security. >> that's. >> i think, the great decisions. >> despite the opposition from hungary. yesterday's meeting was a new chapter at the beginning of a new chapter in eu politics. the bloc was for always focused on creating lasting peace. but for the first time in their. >> history. >> they're now. >> talking about concrete measures. to step. >> up defense spending.

>> for cnbc business. >> news. >> i'm sylvia amato. >> in brussels. president trump has suggested. >> the us would not defend nato allies who don't spend enough on defense, describing. >> a change in stance as common sense. >> three current and former u.s. officials and one congressional official. >> have told nbc. >> news that trump is considering a shift. >> in. nato engagement. >> that would favor. members of the alliance. >> who meet a target on defense spending. >> as a share of gdp. >> let's take a. >> look at. >> where these stocks aerospace. >> and defense. >> index stands now. this morning. >> we are trading slightly lower. >> on the week though. you can see. >> we're up nearly 9%. >> and it has been an extraordinary. >> period for a lot of the. >> names in this basket. >> of stocks. >> looking at defense. >> in particular today we are looking at a little bit of. >> a pullback. >> but of course this. >> is after the. >> extraordinary run. >> that we've. >> seen double. >> digit gains for. >> a number of the key defense. names in europe. hensel ryan, mattel just to name. >> a few. >> we are very lucky to. >> have ben heelan with us today, head of emea, aerospace and. >> defense research. >> at bank.

>> of america global research. ben, so good to have you on the program. we've talked about defense stocks more than. >> i certainly ever have. >> in my career at cnbc. this was a sector that really was out of. >> fashion for. >> so many years. and now. >> the stocks have. >> just gone crazy. do you think this rally has further to run? >> yeah. look, i think i. think we do. >> i think. >> what the market. >> and what. investors are really. >> waking up to is. >> the sea change in terms of how europe is, is approaching defense. >> right? i think if we were having this conversation. >> maybe 6 to 8 weeks ago, the. >> debates i was having with investors. >> will germany spend. >> will france spend, will the uk spend. >> and i think that post. >> that initial nato defense. summit where we had the speech. >> from. >> from the secretary of defense. >> in the us, then. >> we had the jd vance feature, the munich security conference. and the narrative that we've had from the european government since then, i think, has really given people a lot more confidence that europe has actually changed its perception, its. views around defense. you know, it was only four years.

>> ago that europe. >> said that defense was a socially unacceptable investment and sector. right. so i think what you're seeing in the market is just a lot more. conviction that. >> this is a change on. >> a 5. >> to 10. year view from europe, and europe realizes that. they need to rebuild. >> their defense industrial base and do more themselves. >> when we talk about rebuilding, what is it going to take for europe to really rearm. >> itself and be in a position to. >> protect itself. >> potentially without. >> us backing? can you put some numbers on what kind. >> of. >> spending is going to be necessary? >> yeah. >> so look, i think, you know, capacity is the number one question i'm getting and how much are we going to. >> have. >> to, you know, still. >> still rely on the us? >> i think there's two things to that. i think the first thing is we're three years. >> into this. >> right. and so if you take a company like a bae systems as an example, they've hired 20,000 people over the last three years. right? so it's not as though we haven't been able to find people in the sector to hire, etc. what the companies have needed is, is basically the visibility to go out and do that. and so what you've seen over the past three years is

governments giving you ten year framework contracts, giving companies that visibility to go out, hire plan for the future. the second thing is on the numbers themselves, right? if you take the german budget, it was maybe 8 to ■k79 billion on procurement in 2021. if you believe that germany will spend 3% on gdp and you believe that 35 to 40% of that is going to be spent on procurement, similar to what we saw through the cold war. that's a ■k760 billion procurement budget, right? so it's just a significant increase. if you believe they're going to do that by 2030. and you can do that analysis for italy and spain and the uk. so the numbers are very, very stark i think in terms of capacity, if we see more visibility coming from governments in terms of long term framework contracts, that gives the companies the visibility they need to go out. >> to plan. >> to invest. you know, we heard from hensoldt just in the last week, they have 50% capacity in their optronics business that they can grow into. so capacity

exists today on the continent. but there are certain capabilities that we don't have that we're still going to be relying on the us for. so i think fifth generation fighter jets, f-35, think rocket artillery, himars systems and also certain areas in terms of missile defense. so those are just capabilities we just don't really have in europe that needs long term planning. and obviously a lot of work with governments to invest in. >> the r&d. it won't be it won't be possible for european leaders to stipulate that all of the spending needs to be done through european defense companies, because it sounds like they don't necessarily have the capacity. they need today or the capabilities they don't build. >> at the moment. >> all of the. >> equipment that european. >> leaders are going to want to buy. >> yeah, i think that's fair. i think the reality is europe has realized they need to do more themselves. right. and so a lot of the focus is going to be we need to invest in europe. we need to provide that visibility. we need to build the defense industrial base and become

self-sufficient in, in, in terms of a region when it comes to defense. but i think in terms of the reliance on the us will be capability driven yet. right. it's going to be capability driven because the us just does have some capabilities that we do not have. >> let me ask you about who's been buying these defense names. i mean, we were just showing on our. screens the massive rally that we've seen, the inflows into defense stocks. and, you know, over the last five. >> ten. >> years, they were. >> really. >> seen as untouchable by many long term investors. esg funds didn't want to touch these with a barge pole because of precisely what you said, you. >> know. >> was coming from the political leaders as well, that defense names were not seen as socially acceptable investments. so based on your client conversations, who has been buying in here? is it hedge funds? >> is it. >> macro funds or are you actually seeing some long term investors. >> getting involved. >> so we're seeing a lot more long term investors. but the last three years it's been very us account driven, hedge fund driven and macro driven. right. the european investor base has not really been involved in a

significant way because of those esg restrictions that you mentioned and the esg, the esg situation in europe has changed, but it has been very, very slow. right. and so i still have clients today that are not able to invest in defense. right. and obviously that's been extremely painful for them. so it has changed in europe. it is still changing. there are still a lot of clients that can't be involved. but i think what we've seen over the last over the last month has been has been very us long, only driven and very macro account driven. >> so there is. >> potentially still. >> a lot of money that. >> hasn't come on the sidelines, particularly on the european long only side that hasn't been involved just because they have not been able to be involved yet. >> and what are what if we do get a peace deal in ukraine? i mean, there's been a lot of talk about how all this. >> momentum. >> the urgency. >> that we've seen. >> propel european. >> leaders to act is because. >> they're under pressure. president trump has put them under pressure. and at the moment we don't have. >> a peace deal. >> but there are you know, there still is the possibility that we see that happen. is there a. >> risk that the. >> momentum starts to fade if we

get a peace deal in ukraine? or do you think that. you know, we are going to forge ahead no matter what? >> so i think two things on that. i think with the uk and france saying they would be willing to contribute troops to a peacekeeping force, that is a significant commitment, right? if there are uk and french troops on the ground in ukraine, that is not a two year investment, right? that is something that is going to be there for a very, very long period of time. and there's a significant force structure investment that needs to go with that. so, so, so i don't think that changes things. if that's what comes out of any peace negotiation, i'd say the second thing is if the deal means that ukraine loses that territory that is currently occupied by russia, i don't think that that changes the reasons why poland or finland or the baltics or other countries in eastern europe are investing in their defense capabilities that they're investing in today. it is a it is a deterrent. we've heard it from keir starmer and emmanuel macron about peace through strength. and i think that that is the mindset shift that we've seen of the european governments in the last 6 to 8 weeks. >> a real paradigm shift.

>> that's here to stay no matter what. let's get to your top picks in the sector. >> yeah, yeah. so look, we have really like the european names relative to the us names, right? i think there's still a lot of uncertainty in terms of the us budget outlook in the us. so our focus has been around the german defense names primarily. so rheinmetall and rank land vehicle exposed, artillery exposed. we like leonardo so the italian prime. so they have a capital markets day next week which we think is going to be which we think is going to be a positive event. and also the french defense prime. so our focus in terms of our sector has been those european names that have real leverage to growing defense budgets in europe. >> all right. >> ben, i really. >> appreciate your insights. great to speak with you and get more color on what's been driving. >> this rally. >> in defense. ben helen, head of emea aerospace and defense research at bank of america. coming up on the show, the ecb delivers a widely expected policy move but warns of uncertainties ahead. we'll bring you president lagarde's comments

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>> today, treasury secretary scott bessent crucial insights on the economy, inflation and tariff impact his message to investors. now stay ahead of the market. squawk box today, 6 a.m. eastern. cnbc. >> welcome back. >> to the program. german industrial orders fell 7% in the month in january, a month a much bigger. drop than analysts had expected amid stagnation in the sector. and as europe braces for u.s. tariffs. the european central bank warned of phenomenal uncertainty as it delivered a 25 basis point rate cut thursday amid chaotic trade policy moves from the us and the prospect of europe taking its foot off the brake on spending. speaking after the decision, ecb president christine lagarde warned that uncertainty could hurt the bank's progress on bringing down inflation. >> growth could be higher.

>> if easier. >> financing conditions. >> and falling. inflation allow domestic. >> consumption and investment to rebound faster. >> an increase in defense in infrastructure spending could also. >> add to. >> growth, increasing friction in global. >> trade is adding. more uncertainty to the outlook. >> for. >> euro area inflation. >> a general. >> escalation in. >> trade tensions. >> could see the euro depreciate and. >> import costs rise. >> which would. put upward. >> pressure. >> on inflation. >> ecb governing council member mario centeno told cnbc this morning about the change in language in the bank's monetary policy statement. >> we are. >> certainly less restrictive. >> the. this has been quite already a long succession of

rate cuts that we are implementing. we do think that the journey is very clear. >> although these. >> rate cuts implemented because the european economy is stagnated, we. do have in our baseline a projection of inflation going to 2% in the medium term, but that that includes further adjustment in the rates. but we need to remain open and data dependent and deciding meeting by meeting. and this is even more so in the current juncture with all this uncertainty that that is out there in terms of economic policy measures. >> there are a lot of moving pieces. and you and i were having a discussion late last year about whether 50 basis points would be required. since then, a lot of news flow from

the european side and defense spending from the germans, but still with a question mark around tariffs. how high is the hurdle to another rate cut in april? and if we did see tariffs come into force, would that reinforce the notion that a rate cut again is necessary? >> tariffs. tariffs are a. tax. >> they are. >> a tax on both consumption and production. and we do know that taxes have. >> a very. >> clear impact on the economy. no one will end up gaining from a. tax from a. >> tariff. >> war. and the decisions that we will continue to make over. >> the course of. >> our meetings. will will take. >> on board all. >> this information. >> tariff uncertainty is weighing on chinese trade flows after export growth came in weaker than expected in the first two months of the year, up

2.3%, less than half what analysts had penciled in this as imports sank by a much worse than expected 8% way down on december's 1% uptick. china's closely watched national people's congress has so far seen beijing lay outline a around 5% gdp target for the year, and lay out further stimulus for the economy. the government is looking to boost consumption amid challenges from a trade war with the us, with premier li keqiang warning of changes unseen in a century. us president donald trump announced that french shipping firm cma cgm will invest $20 billion into the us economy. the company is planning to build shipping terminals and expand its logistics network, creating 10,000 jobs. it comes as trump reportedly prepares to impose fresh levies on ships linked to china when they call at us ports. us president trump has signed an executive order to establish a strategic bitcoin reserve. the fund, which will be managed by the us treasury

department, will use bitcoin forfeited to the government as part of criminal proceedings. it comes as the white house prepares to host its first ever crypto summit today, bringing together government officials and crypto industry executives. you can see crypto bitcoin trading lower on the session. we had a negative reaction to president trump's announcement around the strategic reserve, not the reserve itself, but the fact that it looks like the trump administration is not going to be buying crypto outright, using taxpayer money to do so, but rather they're going to put this forfeited crypto into a reserve fund fund. so there had been higher expectations for what the government could do in terms of playing more in the crypto market. broadcom shares rallied in after hours trading after the chip maker forecast second quarter revenues above analysts expectations. q1 sales topped forecasts, with ai revenue surging 77%. ceo hock tan says announced in a post earnings call that the chip maker now has four more hyperscale customers keen to create their own custom

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>> and access to. >> your personal title expert a. $250 value. go to home. title lock. com now cnbc spotlight delivers the best videos of the day right to your inbox. top stories. key highlights hand selected daily by cnbc experts. sign up now for free. go to cnbc.com/spotlight. >> welcome back to street signs i'm julianna tatelbaum and these are your headlines. european equities see their biggest weekly inflow in. >> eight. >> years. as president trump pauses some tariffs on canada and mexico, backtracking for a second time this week, u.s. majors look to regain ground as trump promises the decision has nothing to do with the stock market reaction. >> there are no. >> delays at all, no nothing to do with the market. i'm not even looking at the market because long. >> term. >> the united. >> states will be very strong

with what's. happening here. >> treasury secretary scott bessent will speak with our u.s. colleagues at midday. eu leaders. >> back. >> an ■k7800 billion plan to bot defense spending. but opposition from hungary blocks a unanimous show of support for ukraine. commission president ursula von der leyen says the continent is stepping up. >> history is being written. we are coming out of this european council. >> very determined. >> to ensure europe's security and to act with the scale, the speed and the resolve. that this situation demands. >> and germany's dax pulling back from record highs after industrial orders come in way short of expectations, the ecb's mario centeno sounds the alarm on the potential impact of tariffs as the bank cuts by another 25 basis points. >> tariffs are a tax. >> they are a tax on both consumption and production. and we do know that taxes have.

>> a very. >> clear impact on the economy. no one will end up gaining. >> and nonfarm payrolls are expected to tick higher today, as traders bet whether they'll get a repeat of wednesday's shock adp miss. let's get you a check on european equity markets. about an hour and a half into the final day of trade this week. it's been quite a volatile week for global assets. right now we are seeing a pullback in europe. the xetra dax the leading the losses down 1.3%. but this after another strong day for the german market. yesterday the dax closed up about 1.5% a new all time high as investors put more money behind the auto names. after that one month exception from the trump administration for the tariffs to come into effect for the auto sector. and of course, the continued rally in defense in germany. looking at u.s. futures, we are looking

at a little bit of a bounce back right now. the dow jones looking to regain about 100 points after falling 1% yesterday. the nasdaq slipping into correction territory. yesterday 2.6% was the ultimate loss for the nasdaq. the s&p, also looking at a bounce back after closing down 1.8% yesterday. s&p falling back to levels not seen since the us election. so quite a difficult day on wall street. now investors positioning a little bit more positively ahead of the nonfarm payrolls report later today. well it is international women's day tomorrow with the year's this year's theme, accelerate action. tanya has been speaking to top female leaders from across the globe, and she joins me now. tanya. good morning karen. i could be karen. it could be. i'm so used to this morning. >> great compliment. >> to me. >> thank you. giuliana. >> that's wonderful. >> i've been surrounded by amazing women all morning, so forgive me. you've taken karen's seat at the desk this morning, and you come to us with some fantastic lines out of some

pretty amazing women around gender issues and where things stand. the theme this year, today. the theme this year is accelerate action. feels like we're moving, but we're not moving fast enough. >> i think we are. >> we are moving. >> and it. >> seems like year after. year we're. >> saying, come, we've got to move more. we have. >> to do that. >> i caught up with julia gillard, of course, who was the first and only. female prime minister. >> of australia and. >> since leaving. >> office in 2013. julia has become a voice. >> for women around. >> the world. she's now. >> chair of the global institute for women's leadership. >> at king's. >> college london. to mark international women's day, the institute has carried out a survey on attitudes to gender equality. speaking to. 24,000 people. >> across 30 countries, i asked about the survey's. >> findings and julia's concerns for women and girls in 2025. >> the good. >> news is, in every. >> country, people. >> say that gender equality.

matters to them personally. >> yet we. >> are seeing. >> a backlash. >> and of. >> course, it is. >> coming from the trump administration. but i think we've got to recognize. what often starts in the us tends to. >> have. ripple effects around the. >> world. >> and there is no doubt that the language of diversity, equity and inclusion is under attack. and i'm worried that the substance is under attack, too. >> when you. >> say the. >> backlash from the trump administration, what are you worried about most? >> i think what i'm worried about most is that. >> businesses and governments that need. >> to. >> deal with the trump administration find. it necessary to mimic. >> the views. so if. >> the administration says we. >> won't deal with you, if you're. >> an organization committed. to gender equality. racial diversity, equity. >> then there. >> is a retreat from. >> those values. in the way. >> that organizations operate.

>> what would. >> you say to him? well, if i had the. >> opportunity to talk to him, i. >> would say. >> simply that i think everybody on the planet is entitled to a fair opportunity. and so. whilst he might think. individual manifestations of diversity, equity and inclusion policies have gone too far or haven't worked, that we shouldn't. retreat from the whole field. >> we should double. >> down on. >> what's effective. >> to bring change. >> talking about. >> the. >> research from the report. >> julia, six. >> out of ten gen z men. >> felt that we've gone too. far in promoting women's equality. >> is that something you were shocked by? i wasn't shocked because we've done this polling work with. >> ipsos mori now. >> for several years. >> and unfortunately. >> each year it's. >> been showing us that the divide on gender politics is. greatest in the younger cohort, gen z. and i think it would

shock people that if we look at young men. >> compared with. >> older men, men my age, more young men. >> say things. >> like a man who stays home to look after his. children is less of a man. more young men say that gender equality has gone too far. >> what do you think can be done to balance these views? >> i think we do need. >> a. >> more inclusive way of speaking. >> about gender equality. maybe some of our language has made. people think that. >> this. >> is a. >> zero sum game between men and women and boys and girls, and if women and girls get more, then men and boys necessarily get less. and i don't think. >> that's true, and we. >> shouldn't give. >> that impression. >> and from. >> one woman in. politics to. >> another. >> i also spoke with the right honorable bridget phillipson mp. >> uk secretary of state for

education and minister. >> for women. >> and equalities, who before politics ran a refuge. >> for women and children fleeing. domestic violence. >> i started. by asking about the uk government's pledge to halve cases. >> of violence against women and girls. >> over the next decade. the ut tremendous.ernment. >> support into those services, but we know that over the. over recent years they've really faced big constraints. but it's also about the police response, too. and that's why the home secretary, yvette cooper, is leading our work around police reform. so it is an ambitious agenda. >> and it. >> also involves, i think, more education and support for our young people, too, so that they understand what healthy relationships look like and that they're in a position to really understand what's going on in teenage relationships, as well as later through life. >> bridget phillips from there. talking. interestingly enough. >> about healthy relationships and how important that is. >> and of. >> course. >> the survey. >> from julia.

>> gillard's the women's leadership institute at king's college, their key. >> finding. >> giuliana, was that gen z men and women are most divided on. gender equality in. >> any generation. >> that's fascinating. and it's really i mean, i'm trying to gather more insight into how gen z thinks about things. so really interesting to see the division within gen z around gender issues. what should we read into that? >> i think that the gen z men, according to the study, are saying that. they actually feel discriminated against. so i. >> think even though. >> women feel there's not enough. progress in. terms of equality, we. >> have to listen. men have to be part of. >> the conversation. >> everybody does to get progress. >> gen z. >> men are. >> saying, hang on a second. >> we feel that. >> the pendulum. >> has swung. >> too much. >> in favor of women. what about us? >> so we have. >> to listen to that. it's very, very important. >> it's a really tricky thing. you know, when the pendulum swings. we've seen this, you know, you see this in all kinds of issues from one generation to

the next, this pendulum swing. but for it to be swinging already when, yes, progress has been made on so many of these gender issues. there still is so much progress to be made. so for it to swing so quickly before there's more progress is a little bit worrying. i think for those who think there are still major issues out there. >> i think it's being. >> aware that the world. >> economic world. economic forum always says there's still 134 years until women. >> have gender parity. >> so of. >> course we're working towards that. action, action action. accelerate action is the theme of international women's day 2025. however, we still. >> need to have that balance and. listen to what people are really thinking and feeling. >> in order. >> to be part. >> of the conversation and that. >> progress altogether. >> well, tanya, it's always fantastic to get you on set and you bring us such, such great interviews. so really appreciate you marking this big day on the annual calendar. coming up on the show. it's jobs friday with february's nfp print due in just a few hours, we'll take a closer look at what you can expect

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tariff impact. his message to investors. now stay ahead of the market. squawk box today, 6 a.m. eastern. cnbc. >> welcome back to street signs. consumer discretionary stocks have been hit hard since trump became president. the basket notched its worst day of the year wednesday, bringing losses since the inauguration to more than 12%. there was a look for you at look ahead, a little preview of what's to come on the nfp report. shares of gap jumped in after hours trade after the retailer beat on the top and bottom lines in the fourth quarter, blowing past analyst expectations. comparable sales rose 3% for the period, three times forecast after a strong holiday period. macy's forecast full year sales and profit below analysts expectations, with the department store chain saying it expects persistent pressures from inflation and tariffs in

the first quarter. the company posted mixed fourth quarter results as sales fell more than 4%. now let's get to that nonfarm payrolls chart. we were a little bit trigger happy. there we are. just can't wait for that report to come through. u.s. non-farm payrolls are expected to have risen by 170,000 in february, according to dow jones, with the unemployment rate set to hold firm at 4%. average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% on a monthly basis. the february jobs report could be the first one to show the impact of elon musk's doge agency. steve liesman has more on what to expect. >> announced layoffs by employers in the united states in february, surging by 245% to the highest level since the pandemic. with the trump administration's efforts to reduce the federal workforce playing the biggest part. the outplacement firm challenger gray and christmas saying that announced february layoffs, not actual layoffs just announced ones rose to 172,000, up from 49,000in january. it's the highest monthly number since

july 2020 and the worst february since 2009. it was a mix of layoffs from the government and the private sector, including government shedding 63,000 jobs, including federal workers and doctors. retail adding in 45,000 likely hit by cold weather, and tech 22,000, with hp, meta and workday among the tech giants that announced february layoffs, the doge impact was the top reason cited for job cuts, followed by market and economic conditions and bankruptcy. the bulk of government job cuts are likely too recent to show up in the february jobs report. workers won't be counted as unemployed until their severance runs out, but roughly 30,000 federal workers leave their jobs every month in a normal month. so the hiring freeze announced by president trump on day one of his presidency could mean vacated jobs won't be filled. that could create some negative numbers that end up dragging down the headline jobs number. evercore isi, in a research piece, suggests total job losses

from the effort to reduce the employment doge could be as low as 50,000 this year. if the government eventually gets back to hiring in the back half, or as high as 660,000. in a worst case scenario created by what it calls doge policy uncertainty, they said doge related uncertainty over contracts and grants could have an additional paralyzing effect on hiring and employers exposed to these funding sources, or in need of regulatory approvals from agencies that are themselves paralyzed by doge review. most forecasters are settling on a midpoint between 250,000 and 350,000 for total federal job losses, or roughly 20 to 30,000 a month, a noticeable number. the economic impact, ultimately will depend on whether the private sector finds jobs for these workers, and private sector job growth overcomes the drag from the federal side. steve liesman, cnbc business news. >> meanwhile, atlanta fed president raphael bostic said it could be months before we get

any clarity on what trump's policy decisions are doing to the world's largest economy, the direction of which, bostic says is very much up in the air. but fed governor christopher waller said he sees room for as many as three cuts this year. let's continue the conversation with atacan bakhsh khan, us economist from berenberg. thanks for being with us on this big day for data. we've got the nfp report now a few hours away. it's always really close, closely watched by the market. but why is this report so much more important than usual? >> yeah. >> well. >> first thing. >> is there's a lot of talk about whether the dodge layoffs is going to. >> impact this report. well, i. >> personally don't think it's. >> going to. you have about. >> 75,000 people who accepted. the resignation program. >> well, they're going. >> to count. >> employed until september. >> and those who. >> got laid. >> off say like 50,000. probationary employees, they're also going to. >> very likely. >> count. >> unemployed in february and in march, assuming they get. paid severance. and the survey week

is also conducted in the week. >> that includes 12th. >> of the. >> month and. >> mostly most layoffs started after mid-february. well, second thing is, there's a lot. of growth scare going on. >> in the us. >> so if you. >> were to get a major downside surprise in this report, that could really intensify. >> those fears. >> so i. >> think i think the markets. >> will closely watch this report. >> what would a major downside surprise look like? >> i think a downside. >> surprise would be like a 50,000. >> jobs added. >> and like a. >> what like 4.2% unemployment rate. >> but even. >> even if. >> we do. >> get a number below 100,000, i don't think the fed is going. >> to change. >> its assessment of a strong labor market. >> you have the. >> san francisco. >> fed estimating. >> that the unusually cold weather in january. >> deducted at around 85,000 jobs in january. so even. if we do get a bad number. >> this february 3rd. >> month. >> average would. >> still be. well above. the past. >> year average. i mean, labor

market. >> is. >> looking solid. >> in all. >> angles in my opinion. >> that's so interesting. you say the labor market is looking solid because so many conversations we've been having around the desk over the last couple of weeks have been around growth weakening in the us, and a lot of the soft data has pointed to a softening of the economic picture. the university of michigan survey, i think that was one of the key drivers of this shift down we've seen in us markets. how come you're confident to look through that soft data? >> i mean. >> soft data. >> the post-pandemic economy, if there's one thing that we. >> learned is that soft. >> data doesn't really. >> predict growth. >> at all. >> i mean. >> university of. michigan conference board. >> consumer confidence. it's back to where it started. >> last year. >> end of 2023. >> i mean, in 2024. >> consumer spending. >> ended up. >> doing all. >> the. >> heavy. >> lifting in. >> the. >> us economy. >> and it's just that. >> when you look at the. >> headline data, like you said, there's a lot of downside misses. so for example, challenger layoffs. challenger announced. >> job cuts yesterday, showed. the highest. >> layoffs since.

>> july 2020, the worst february. >> since 2009. >> so when you just look at the. >> headline. >> it is. >> easy. >> to form these stagflation recession fears. >> but when you just do dig. >> into. >> the. >> details a little bit, when you. do a little. >> bit of a detective. >> work. >> you do see. >> that the details. >> are actually much more positive. >> that, for. >> example, the. challenger announced. >> job cuts. >> almost all. >> of it is due to like. >> a one. >> off bankruptcy. >> one off retail job cuts. >> and also the dodge layoffs. >> i mean. >> even in. >> an. >> extreme scenario where the us, us government lays off 300,000. federal employees, the labor market is so massive in the us. >> is that that's. >> only going to. shift up unemployment rate by 20. >> basis points. >> a drop in the ocean. in that context. >> when unemployment. >> rate is a. >> 4%. >> if. >> it. >> goes up. >> by 20 basis points, it's 4.2%. >> and that's. >> the that's. >> the actually. the unemployment rate that. >> the fed wants. >> to see. >> that's their. >> estimate of the natural rate. >> what about the impact of more restrictive immigration policy, another key pillar of president trump's agenda.

>> right i think. >> i think that's the key. >> that's that's way more important than the. >> layoffs since. >> since since the. >> since pandemic. >> it's immigration. >> it's like illegal immigrant. >> it's immigration. >> who drove all the. >> gains in the labor. >> force one get last year. you have 50,000. jobs added by federal employees, but close to like above a million. >> more than half of the job. >> gains comes from immigration, like immigration is a key source. >> of labor supply in the us. >> labor market is. so dependent. >> on. >> it. >> so restrictive. immigration policy works. >> as a negative. >> supply shock. >> which. >> could push. >> up. >> wage growth and really tighten the labor market. >> i think. >> the i think the biggest concern that the. >> markets and people should have is to look at immigration, because we already see it. >> slowing down. >> you have. >> to look. >> at the. >> border encounters, data. >> that's slowing down. >> so what is that likely to do to the inflation picture in the us. >> right. so inflation picture. >> i mean there's. >> still. >> a couple of areas that the fed. >> is really. >> confident that the inflation is going. >> to. >> get down. >> to 2%. >> first is this residual.

>> seasonality i think that's been going around. the fed thinks that the january february readings are a bit high, but it's going to come down in the later second half of the year. they're very confident in the shelter inflation. >> shelter inflation is. >> going to come down. i mean everybody knows that. it's just a bit slow and stubborn. but the impact of tariffs and restrictive immigration are very likely to offset all those all those downside pressures to inflation. so i expect this year. >> a tightening in. >> the labor market, which could push up wage. growth and in turn inflation as well. and you know, tariffs are there's really no debate whether it's deflationary inflation i think everybody agrees it's inflationary. >> everybody except the president himself maybe. okay. thank you so much for joining us. great to get your thoughts ahead of this nfp report. again backing us. economist from berenberg. us president trump has again backtracked on his trade tariff strategy, announcing a one month reprieve for mexican and canadian goods that fall under the terms of the usmca trade deal he signed off in 2020. a white house official

told cnbc that about half of mexican imports and 38% of canadian imports are covered. the climbdown caps a volatile week after the us leader imposed duties on tuesday, sparking a trade war with america's neighbors. let's get out to nbc's alice barr, who joins us from washington dc, with the latest alice, what do we know about what led to this reversal, the latest reversal from president trump? >> giuliana? yeah, well. >> the president. >> has said what did not lead to it, at least in his estimation. he's adamant that this reversal was not prompted by concerns over higher prices for us consumers and stock market drops. the market, of course, has been rattled. >> and. >> kind of trying to keep up. >> with the pace of one. >> step forward, one step back, one step. >> sideways in. >> terms of president trump's tariff plans, you know, as he noted, he's. >> now walked. >> back 25% tariffs on more imports from canada and mexico for just one month. and that comes just two days after putting the levies into place. the temporary reprieve is on everything from avocados.

>> to auto. >> parts targeting goods covered by the us mexico canada trade agreement that was negotiated in the first trump term. but as. >> you just. >> alluded to, about 60%. >> of canadian. >> imports and. half of those from mexico are still subject to. >> the 25% tariffs, and all bets are off. >> one month from now, when president trump wants reciprocal tariffs on virtually every us trading partner to begin, and he continues. >> to say that. >> he does not believe the us has been treated right in trade partnerships with other countries. and he wants to sort of even the. >> trading, the playing. >> field. he said, you know. >> i. >> noted that he said doesn't have. >> to do. >> with the stock market. >> he said he's not even. >> watching the markets because long term, he truly believes that the us is going to be stronger because of his tariff plans. a lot of u.s. >> businesses, though, feeling. >> a lot of uncertainty, we. >> heard. >> from one auto parts manufacturer in michigan that nbc news has. >> been tracking. >> who said. >> you know. >> this just means. >> 30 more days. >> of waiting. >> and wondering to see what. >> exactly is. >> going to happen and how it's

going to impact his business that's heavily reliant on imports of materials from canada. >> giuliana. well, alice, i think that that comment around essentially brushing off the question around markets and whether he's watching them has rattled investors. i think some of the thesis behind the equity case for us equities is that president trump would be capped by market performance. and if markets reacted too badly to these tariffs that he'd reverse course. he's kind of putting a dampener on that thesis now alice, thanks for the detail from washington, d.c. the financial times editorial board has joined criticism of the president's trade policies, accusing trump of squandering his economic inheritance from the biden administration and undermining america's economic exceptionalism. well, it's been a tough trade. if you put on a us versus europe to start the year, and there are a lot of investors, a lot of funds who did precisely that. the us market has been underperforming the european market so far this year. here's a look for you week to date, the stoxx 600 is down

about 7/10 of a percent, while the s&p down more than 3.5% week to date. if you extrapolate that to what we've seen year to date, much of the same, the us market has underperformed europe. that is starting to lure investors into europe. we've seen a massive influx of investment into the european market because investors have been caught wrong footed, thinking that us exceptionalism would drive us outperformance. it hasn't happened yet, but a word of caution. so far, we've just heard about the disruptive measures from the trump administration. not much on the stimulative measures that may be in store, deregulation and tax cuts, but that is it for today's show. we'll take up the conversation when we are back on air, but for now, we'll hand you over to our u.s. colleagues for worldwide exchange. >> what do you do when your tires are low and you've got some place to go? what if the solution was right in your pocket? introducing pocket air pro. by bullseye, the compact

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with exclusive access to market moving interviews and stock picks. all new investing tools securely linked to your brokerage accounts, plus cnbc global market news and analysis tailored to your holdings. become a smarter investor with the power of cnbc pro, go to cnbc. slash get pro now. >> tariff uncertainty is. >> just ripping. >> through wall. >> street this week. a 3%. >> drop on the. >> dow. >> 4% on the s&p. >> the nasdaq. falling into correction. >> volatility surging. >> but the president says he's not watching. >> the ticker. >> nothing to do with the market. i'm not even looking. >> at the market because. >> long term the united. >> states will be. >> very strong with what's happening here. >> and two. >> potential market movers. >> today as the. >> jobs report. >> and jay powell. >> speaking strong data. >> that. >> could give investors a breather. >> but any surprises? >> they run the risk of. >> making a. very jittery. >> market even worse. >> if layoffs. >> wereo