moving interviews and stock picks. all new investing tools securely linked to your brokerage accounts, plus cnbc global market news and analysis tailored to your holdings. become a smarter investor with the power of cnbc pro, go to cnbc. slash get pro now. >> tariff uncertainty is. >> just ripping. >> through wall. >> street this week. a 3%. >> drop on the. >> dow. >> 4% on the s&p. >> the nasdaq. falling into correction. >> volatility surging. >> but the president says he's not watching. >> the ticker. >> nothing to do with the market. i'm not even looking. >> at the market because. >> long term the united. >> states will be. >> very strong with what's happening here. >> and two. >> potential market movers. >> today as the. >> jobs report. >> and jay powell. >> speaking strong data. >> that. >> could give investors a breather. >> but any surprises? >> they run the risk of. >> making a. very jittery. >> market even worse. >> if layoffs. >> were to pick up. we are in an

environment. >> where it does. >> not appear that hiring is happening as rapidly. >> so unfortunately. >> there are some signs that this. >> is. >> going from a. >> risk to being. >> the environment that we're in. and that could be a real problem for the labor market as a whole. >> so has anything fundamentally changed for the markets or for the economy? >> what's the. >> bond market. >> telling us? what should you. >> do with your money? >> a whole lot of questions. we're going to. >> try to get you some. >> answers today. it is friday, march. >> the 7th, 2025. >> you are watching worldwide. >> exchange right. >> here on cnbc. >> good morning. thanks so much for. >> being here with us. >> i am frank holland. big day here. >> very volatile week with the. >> major averages coming off their third down day in. >> the last four. >> as we mentioned the nasdaq now 10% off its. 52 week high. the s&p also. >> seeing its worst day since mid-december. as investors. >> digesting new tariff exemptions. also they're looking ahead to. >> the. jobs report later today. >> let's take a look at stock futures right now.

>> this is. >> yesterday's close. we just mentioned some of the. >> sell off that we. >> saw yesterday. >> but this is. >> the futures market a bit of a. rebound right now. remember we're coming off three down days in the last four. >> the s&p up. >> just about a third. >> of a. percent or. >> right around 19 points. >> the dow. >> looks like it would open up. >> about. >> 60 points higher or so. up about a quarter of a percent. the nasdaq the best performer up about 100%, up over. >> a. >> third of a percent. we also want to take a look at the small caps this morning. moving just a. >> bit higher this morning. >> up a quarter. >> of a percent. small caps obviously. >> very sensitive to these. >> changes in the economy. >> and we also want to look at the pre-market gainers on the. s&p 500. taking a look we're seeing broadcom right here. at the top list. >> strong earnings report. >> moving this company higher. shares up over 12% higher. walgreens boots alliance moving higher. this on a report. >> that they. >> will be taking private. >> shares right now. >> up over 5%. almost up 5.5%. wabtec insight and nrg, nrg energy rounding out the top five. then some of the worst performers, the laggards going to take a look at those right now. >> seeing hpe. >> hewlett packard. >> enterprises falling more than

20%. this is off of earnings. >> cooper smith. >> campbell's and also borgwarner. >> rounding out. >> the worst. >> performers on the s&p. >> at least in the premarket right now. so all this. >> action we're seeing after president. >> trump announced. >> temporary tariff. >> exemptions for canadian and mexican imports that are covered under the usmca trade agreement. >> at least until. >> april the 2nd. >> here's here's the amount. >> of. >> the mexican imports. >> that are covered right. >> now, about 38% and about half of canadian imports. >> hard to. >> keep. >> track, but this is the. >> latest development, these exemptions going up. >> to at. >> least april the 2nd. >> and following that announcement, a quick check of the etfs that track countries that are facing tariffs. >> trump making it a. >> point to single out india. >> yesterday in its. >> high tariff rate on mad money. jim cramer also talking about how the uncertainty of tariffs are weakening business confidence and leading to some soft guidance from companies, and how that volatility that's impacting investor confidence. >> nobody wants to be a sucker. the president knows that. we don't want to feel like doofuses for putting money into the stock market. savings are a good

thing. we want people to save. but right now it's not worth it. the real winners of this red hot minute are all short sellers. >> and as we mentioned, we want to. >> check. >> those etfs. >> that track. >> the countries. >> that are facing. >> tariffs right now. we're going to come back on camera right here. >> so looking. >> at. >> some of these etfs. >> all right. >> we're going to move on. >> a bit. >> lack of confidence. jim cramer talking about. >> playing out. >> in several key areas of the market falling lower than the. s&p 500 over the week we're talking the mag seven down almost 5% chips the sm falling almost 4%. also take a look at this. >> this etf. >> the m t u m etf. this is one of the ways we track the momentum trade falling nearly 6.5%. all right. >> that lack of confidence. >> also pushing money into the bond market. we're seeing yields ticking up just a few basis points over the last week. but it's important to note it's still falling about 50 basis points year to date. taking a look at the benchmark right now at 4.27. we're going to talk a whole lot more about the opportunities in treasuries and in corporate bonds coming up in the show. plus, you don't want to miss cnbc's conversation.

>> with treasury secretary. >> scott bessant coming up later this morning. all right. also, as. >> we. >> stick with this macro theme, the dollar continuing. >> to weaken. >> coming off. >> its worst. >> day since november of 2023, on pace. >> for. >> its worst week since november of 2022. right now. the dollar pulling back nearly a half a percent week to date. the dollar falling over 3.5%. and we got to talk about cryptocurrency out of the crypto summit at the white house later today. also, president trump's executive order yesterday creating that strategic crypto reserve, which notably does not include the u.s. government buying new bitcoin, just transferring already held assets into what the white house is calling a digital fort knox. taking a look at bitcoin right now back below 90,000 a coin, pulling back about a quarter of a percent right now. but important to note week to date. actually rising up nearly 6% week to date. and a quick check of energy oil. >> on pace. >> for. its worst week since october. but this morning moving a bit higher. wti crude the us benchmark up 1.25%. but here week to date you're seeing declines across the board. a lot of this on tariff uncertainty. wti down about 3.5% week to

date. >> okay that is. >> your setup. let's now see how asia and europe are closing out this whipsaw week. our giuliana tannenbaum and our jp ong are standing by. giuliana good morning. let's start with you. >> hey, frank. good morning. well, european equities have been under some selling pressure this morning after what has been an incredibly volatile week from a headline perspective. we'll take you to the moves this morning. you've got ftse 100 down about 4/10 of a percent. the xetra dax down 1.3%. the cac40 down about 8/10 of a percent and the ftse mid down about 2/10. germany clearly stands out here as the underperformer today. but let's put it into context. yesterday the dax outperformed broader europe gaining 1.5%. while the stoxx 600 was flat on the session, closing at a record high. the german market yesterday. so yes, we are underperforming this morning but it's after quite a strong run. it has been a mixed week across european equities. the benchmark stoxx 600 down around 1% week to date. but that is much stronger than what we've seen stateside. europe continuing to outperform

the us, france and germany headed for a week in the green. as i mentioned, germany outperforming yesterday, much of the positivity once again coming in defense names across the continent as eu leaders back a plan that could mobilize up to ■k7800 billion in new spending. manufacturers like rheinmetall and hensoldt are now all up more than 70% so far this year. >> julianna, thank you so much. julianna tatelbaum live in our london newsroom. we want to turn to asia now. and a very rough session there. our jp ong is standing by in singapore. jp. >> yeah. >> frank, you said it. it was a. rough friday. >> actually, out here in asia. >> no way to sugarcoat it. >> you saw a lot of markets and stocks really pulling back because of that trade tariff uncertainty after the trump administration decided to at least delay some of those tariffs on mexican canadian goods, leaving many question which way are things going to go? but so far, stocks did go down. take a look at the kospi in south korea. snapping out of out of a two day winning streak. the asx 200 australia also falling below 8000 for the first

time in about six months. and also on the back of a sell off for banking stocks. we have to talk about china, though, because there is still ongoing hopes for greater chinese markets. that stimulus will be forthcoming after china set another gdp growth target of 5%, and perhaps the promise of more stimulus for the world's second largest economy. but we have to remember that they posted dismal february trade data, with exports growing by a measly 2.4% lower than the what was expected by the markets. and imports surprisingly contracting and again pointing to perhaps a slowdown in terms of the economic activity out in china. it was interesting for japanese markets because the economy minister in japan did say today that they have probably met the conditions now for japan to exit disinflation, which they've been trying to do for the better part of the last ten years. take a look at the jgb 30 year yields. they're now at their highest levels in about 30 years. but of course this also weighing on the nikkei 225 which also closed in the red overall. unforgettable day not just for japanese markets but for asia in general. to end the trading week. frank, back to you and good morning. >> all right. >> jp, thank. >> you very much. our jp ong live in singapore. let's keep this conversation going and bring in mark.

>> lee. >> ubs global wealth management chief investment officer. also with us this morning, carl weinberg, chief economist and managing director at high frequency economics. gentlemen good morning. good to see both of you. >> good morning. >> mark. >> let's. >> start off with you. >> so much headline risk. >> in. >> this market, so much volatility. if you're an investor even a long term investor how should you view this volatility and all this headline risk. and should you respond to it. and if so how. >> yeah. >> well as you know frank. >> last week. >> we. >> started saying you. >> can't have. >> a failure of imagination about what could happen in terms of trump policy, both to the upside, but of course also to the downside. and we started talking about hedging equity exposure. going forward into this april 2nd announcement. on reciprocal tariffs. and i think. >> you know, some of these. >> risks have. have played out this week and are likely to continue. and, you know, i mean. >> this. >> is not i'm not. >> trying to make political

statements or statements about how i think the world should be organized. i'm trying. >> to make. >> the statements on the back of data and, you know, things like texas. >> trump, country. >> but if you look at the beige book out of the fed, the dallas fed is saying that, hey, this uncertainty is starting to weigh on businesses and potentially on growth and in investment. >> and that's one of the. >> signs that we're hearing from businesses. and we also hear them from clients. and then of course, the market is telling us this week that the trump administration lost the growth narrative to germany, which hasn't happened in a long time. so we need to see how this plays out. but we expect further volatility ahead. >> carl. >> i'm going to come over to you. according to your notes, you believe if these 25% tariffs do actually get. enacted as as was. previously announced could. >> cause. >> a recession. but we continue to see these pauses, exemptions and kind of carve outs. does that change your view of the impact on tariffs on the us economy?

>> well, right. >> now. >> it's not the. >> actual tariffs themselves that. >> are. affecting the economy. >> but. >> it's the fear of. >> the tariffs. >> and as. >> the other guest. >> just pointed. >> out, this. uncertainty appears everywhere. >> i think. >> if. >> you did a. >> search. >> you'd find the. >> word uncertainty. >> appearing more than. >> ever before. it appears in the. >> nfib survey of. small businesses. >> where they talk about uncertainty. >> rising since. >> the election in november, when they became. >> very certain. >> they'd become. >> increasingly less. >> certain about their. >> outlook for the economy. >> is this. >> a good time to invest? no. not really. >> is it a good time to. >> expand your business? maybe not so much. >> and we see it in consumer sentiment that consumers. >> are feeling. >> well, they don't know what's going on. and if they feel uncertain, then consumers won't spend as much. >> and consumption spending. >> has been what's driving the economy. so we're looking right now. >> at kind of the fear of tariffs. >> and the. uncertainty of everything. >> that's happening. >> in washington. >> weighing down. >> on economic activity. >> and the bottom line on that. >> is that. gdp now, the atlanta. >> fed's spot. >> forecast of what's going on

in the economy is. >> looking for a. 2.3% contraction. >> in gdp for the first. >> quarter. >> the first time ever other than covid. >> that gdp now has pointed down. >> all right. >> so you're saying it's. >> largely sentiment. >> but a lot. >> of people say that the fundamentals of the market carl, excuse me, the economy are still very strong. so in your mind does you're saying. >> no. >> it's more. >> than it's more. >> than sentiment. >> you know, you look at consumer. >> spending that's. >> down in real terms. you look at. >> retail sales. >> they're down in real terms. you look at durable goods. and other. >> than airplanes. >> they're down in real terms. we're seeing real indicators of. economic activity. actually pulling. >> back right. now just on the basis. >> of sentiment. >> and again, just. >> listening to. >> your market wrap. >> a few. >> minutes ago. >> financial markets are feeling the same thing. and that's real. also. >> the loss. >> of wealth and stocks also affects consumer spending. >> and consumers are the. >> only thing. >> that have driven the economy over the last two and a.

>> half years. >> you know, carl, we're going to take a break in a second. but i do want to point out one thing we've heard from mastercard earlier this week here on this show. and also the chief economist was on a different show yesterday saying, yes, we are seeing a slowdown when it comes to spending of goods. however, consumers continue to spend on services and travel and things like that. while the data you're pointing out to of course it's accurate, i agree with you. obviously we're seeing declines in retail sales, but it also isn't that just a part of a shift in spending as people go to other parts of the economy and look to spend their money? >> well. >> you can stick. >> your head in the. >> sand and say you don't trust the data, but the consumers expenditures data in volume. >> terms cover everything. >> all right. >> services. >> goods, everything. so maybe there's a change in the mix. >> and maybe. >> that's important too. but the macroeconomic. aggregates are pointed downward. >> right now. and that's what. >> gdp now tells us. it's not a question of mix. it's a question of overall activity. and it's not looking good. after seeing the january. >> data now we'll get. >> payrolls later this morning. >> we know. >> that might. >> hold off one second. we're going to get to that part in a

second. both of you mark stay there as well. we're going to continue this conversation in just a moment. but by the way carl, no head in the sand. i'm just asking you a question. all right. we got a lot more to come here on worldwide exchange, including bond market warning signs that. investors should not be ignoring. plus a view from the c-suite and what president trump's trade war. with that could mean for business confidence and staffing plans in the months ahead. >> we're going to hear. >> from former walmart. >> u.s. ceo bill simon and conference board ceo steve odland. we have a very busy hour still ahead on worldwide exchange returns. >> stay with us. >> paypal energy. >> has been hunting for the best entrepreneurs across africa to tackle energy poverty. >> farmers are highly dependent on rainfall, but water is scarce with drought. our solution is mobile solar containers for off grid farmers, which uses ai to make irrigation more efficient. being an entrepreneur is not an easy task. if you have to have faith that a door will open. >> ubuntu means unity. >> this is. >> how we're going to fight climate change together.

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>> all right. >> welcome back to. >> worldwide exchange. >> mark haefeli and carl weinberg. still with me. mark going to come over to you. we were just talking about it before the break. the jobs report coming up later today. looking at the estimates. the estimate is for 170,000 jobs, an increase over last month that was impacted by a number of factors. in your mind, how big of a market mover could this be? if this jobs report hits the estimate or even exceeds it? >> well, i don't think that if it if it's above that, it's going to eliminate all the uncertainty out there and like and of course if it's below the market may sell off. but this is just one, you know, one data point. but obviously people are really looking at this because it is kind of an important tell on some of the uncertainty levels that we've been talking about. >> all right. so it's an important tell. so you're saying if it's under it could be a much more of a market mover. if it's under the estimate in your mind, what's the tell. how do you

respond as an investor. >> yeah. well i think it fits into this narrative that the uncertainty that, you know, is. anecdotal or sentimental is starting to really show up in the data so that that's where in a market that's already fragile might take that as an extra signal. i think. >> as i was saying, you. >> know, we try to hedge our equity exposure. we still longer term we like the i theme. we like us investments more near term. we have been looking at and playing more short term in the dax. and also on china tech. although when we get towards further tariff announcements in april, they may also come into question. of course in europe we have the additional factor that many people are hoping on lower gas prices and greater economic development out of a ceasefire in ukraine, and that would certainly be a positive for a variety of reasons, although how

long that takes to get to lower gas prices in a sustainable way that would remain, that needs to be seen. >> all right. so karl, coming over to you, you're talking about a lot of these different economic reports in your mind. what is at stake right now when it comes to this jobs report? we're hearing a lot of things come up that we haven't heard about. >> in. >> a few years. recession, stagflation. in your mind, what is this report going to tell us and what's at stake when we're looking at the economy? >> yeah. >> so i think. >> that from the point of view of the economy, we're looking at. >> a test. >> of whether or not employers are slowing their rate of hiring. there's no sign of layoffs. that's one reason why we could, you know, get a drop in payroll employment. there's no sign of any change in the demographics. there's no sign of people quitting. >> but there is a lot of evidence. >> in the beige book and in other surveys that we're seeing about companies cutting back on their. rate of hiring, deferring that hiring decision until the. >> dust settles down. >> and that's what i'm looking. >> for in these. >> to interject. >> but, i mean, we just got a

report from challenger and gray yesterday. layoffs increased 245% in february. over january, 172,000 layoffs, about a third federal layoffs, obviously part of the doj's effort. so we are seeing layoffs tick up a bit. >> well, in that case. >> then, we didn't see that in the initial claims numbers. but perhaps other surveys are telling that i wouldn't be. >> surprised to. >> see layoffs picking up. but what i'm really looking for in this number is a slowdown in the rate. >> of hiring. >> to bring down the payrolls number. now for the market. the market is looking at 140,000 increase. >> in private payrolls. >> and just the other day we got another survey like report from. adp that said that that number was only 70,000. i think given what i know about the economy and what adp told me, that all the risks to the payroll number today are to the downside of market expectations. and as mark suggested, if we get a number to the downside, i don't know that financial markets will take that outcome lightly. >> all right. i mean, guys, we

could just continue. >> this. >> conversation probably for the whole hour. but we got to leave it there. mark and carl weinberg, great to see you both. thank you very much for your time and for your insight. all right. coming up here on worldwide exchange. treasury secretary scott bessent joins squawk box to discuss the turbulent week for the markets and the rapid developments around the trump administration's policies. that is coming up at 7 a.m. eastern. you do not want to miss it. still on deck. we got your big money movers and a closer look at gap's trade war strategy. shares are popping. we're back right after this. the gap shares up over 17%. nearly 18%. >> buying a car is kind of a big deal. >> there's like. a million options. and you deserve something you love. at cargurus. >> we get it. >> as the number one most. >> visited car shopping site, we

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that was. >> a lot. >> oh, there's more, like, lots more. >> all right. welcome back to worldwide exchange. we're tracking etf flows on this friday morning. etf net inflows topping 214 billion year to date. we're also tracking the moves above and beyond the 30 day moving averages for the popular index funds the s&p and the triple qs. take a look right there. you see on tuesday volumes doubling as investors reacted to tariffs this week. the s&p and the nasdaq 100 both lower. it's been kind of a roller coaster big sell off and then rebound on auto concessions. you can see here more weakness after that. this week some of the most popular etfs they actually saw net outflows. that includes the s&p and the triple q the tlt that tracks the 20 year. and the emerging markets etf also seeing net outflows. a notable etf that saw more than 1 billion of inflows, the vti etf that covers the entire u.s. stock market. all right. let's dig deeper into that flight to safety and bring in joanna gallegos, co-founder and chief operating officer of

bomb blox. joanna, good morning. great to have you here. >> good morning. >> so i want to talk to you about that. the net outflows from the tlt that tracks the 20 year. also some new info right here looking at bonds actually saw its biggest weekly outflow. treasuries i'm talking about in 11 weeks of 1.2 billion. what do you make of that? i thought investors were piling into the bond market for safety. >> well, it depends. >> on on. what segment of the bond market. so in. long dated exposures like the 20 year treasury exposure or even ten year exposure, you would only go into those right now. if you were really confident that, you know, none of this economic. data that's going to come through is going to weaken the economy. so bond markets are an excellent reflection of sort of. >> the sentiment. >> in the economy. >> and in markets. and so that's why you're. >> seeing a lot of concern and movement out of the long end. >> also the yield. >> curve. >> you know, sort. of what. >> you're being. >> compensated for, being in the long part. >> of the. >> curve. right now is probably. >> not as.

>> as risk averse as if you were to. >> go on. >> the short end. so that's people. >> move back and forth from the. >> long. >> end to the short. >> end often. >> and that's what that reflects. >> all right. well, speaking of kind of that positioning when it comes to the bond curve, when we're looking at the ten year right now where we're seeing it at that yield, is this an attractive entry point. and also what about corporates. we're talking a lot about inflation maybe even stagflation and also weakness in the economy. what kind of corporate bonds are attractive right now. >> yeah. >> so we. >> actually still. >> view that the. >> economy is showing signs of. >> resiliency, especially when you look at. >> it through the filter of a bond holder and a corporate bond issuer. so what you're looking for. >> in bond issuance. >> is whether there's distress in a company's. ability to. pay their interest, to pay their debt. and so we haven't seen. >> that develop. >> in fact, the balance sheets of. corporations have been really. >> strong through. >> the last two years. and even if the economy. >> weakens. >> or as you were. >> mentioning. >> about different economic data coming in as softer, we're going to need to see more data to understand if this is a soft patch or something more.

>> but real. >> broad distress. >> in a corporations ability. >> to pay. >> back their. >> debt is probably not something that's presenting itself. so that means there's a lot. >> of opportunity. >> to reach for this income in fixed income and in corporates. we think that if you're in, you're invested in high quality corporate debt, like, you know, investment. >> grade. >> debt, you should be. >> reaching for. >> that. >> yield all the way out to like triple b space. and as well, you know, as you know, we're a big fan. of reaching even further into. >> high. >> yield as you look at these income. >> rates that are topping over 11%. >> at the at the. >> highest, that. >> income offsets. >> a. >> lot of volatility. >> in your portfolio. >> and these. >> markets are really, really good reminders. >> to diversify your portfolio. >> right now. >> all right. so you're saying you still see a lot of strength in the economy. but what signals is the bond market telling us when we're seeing these moves when it comes to yields. what how should we interpret that when it comes to the bond market? a lot of times we hear people say the bond market is bigger and even smarter than the stock market. >> well, i mean, people. >> have enjoyed.

>> extraordinary returns. >> in the stock market over the last 15. >> years, and they've gotten. >> used to year. >> on year returns. >> i mean, you challenged me the last. >> time i was on here. >> why would you. >> want to be. >> in the bond market and when. >> you can get such amazing returns in the. >> s&p. >> 500 for 2024. but this is a. >> really good reminder. >> that, you know, there's a lot of concentration in your. portfolio as you keep piling. >> into those equities. >> so in bonds. >> you know, what we're. >> we're at. >> right. >> now is. >> you're at. >> peak. >> you're at high interest rates. >> and you have. >> corporate strength and their ability to pay their debt. and so you're you're enjoying these big income levels that you. >> can. >> put into your portfolio to offset risk that. >> you have inherently in. >> those big equity positions. >> so if. >> you're looking for. >> you know, a place where. >> your portfolio can be more. >> resilient. >> you should be. allocating more to fixed income. >> right now. and we've been advocating for that. >> our very top. >> pick, by. >> the way. >> is to invest in private credit. >> and that's. >> because private credit has an extremely low correlation to the

public. >> markets. >> both fixed income and equity. >> before we get on a tangent, just very quickly, can you bottom line it for us when we're seeing these action in the bond market specifically yields going down about 50 basis points from their highs so far in 2025. what does that say. is that a sign that the bond market's worried about the economy. is that the sign that the bond market's no longer worried about inflation? what are we getting from the bond market. >> that is absolutely saying that. >> investors have concerns about. >> this market. >> and this economy and. >> sort of the. >> outlook of the economy. >> that's absolutely saying that. >> there's concerns. >> about it. >> i think we are. >> very cautious. >> in. >> saying we. >> need to see. >> more data to understand what we're heading into. >> and even in. >> the jobs data that will come out today. >> whether or. >> not that's fully. reflective of the future. outlook and whether or not some of these weaknesses actually develop. we've seen this. before over the. last two years. >> you really. >> need. >> to go. >> by the economic data. and when that turns, that's where you're really. >> looking for. >> you know, your next action. >> but we still. >> say fixed.

>> income and at these high levels. >> are really. >> important to be putting in your. >> portfolio right now. >> joanna gallegos, great to have you on, as always. i mean, we're going to have to have this conversation again. i wish we had more time. thank you as always. great to see you. all right. as we head to break, we're watching shares of tesla this morning on track for their seventh down day in a row, and on its longest weekly losing streak on record. you can see shares are down about a half a percent right now. week to date down about 10%. the stock's also down nearly 40% since trump took office, which accounts for just about $500 billion in lost market value or the entire market caps of an exxon, a costco, an oracle, or even a netflix. we'll be right back after this. stay with us. >> with a shield level annuity from brighthouse financial, your portfolio can benefit from growth potential with a level of protection from market volatility to help you follow your plans wherever they take you. brighthouse financial build for what's ahead.

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>> nothing to do with the market. >> i'm not even looking. >> at the market. >> because long term. >> the united. >> states will be very strong with. >> what's happening here. >> so that was president trump in the oval office yesterday defending his administration's moves around tariffs and brushing off the blame for the market volatility. stocks on pace for their worst week of the year. investors are now preparing to face their next big test coming up in just a couple

of hours. that's the jobs report. welcome back to worldwide exchange i'm frank collin. coming up. we're going to tee up this morning's jobs report. and what the c-suite is saying about the impact of trump tariffs and a fintech play that could provide investors some opportunity. but first, we're going to take a look at the markets kicking off the final trading day of what's been a very volatile week for wall street, with the major averages coming off their third down day in the last four. the nasdaq also now in correction territory, about 10% off its 52 week high. the s&p also seeing its worst day since mid december. investors they continue to digest new tariff exemptions. and they look ahead again to that jobs report today. also keep in mind we've got jay powell speaking. but right now we want to take a look at futures in the green across the board. looks like the dow would open up about 50 points higher. so this action after president trump announced temporary tariff exemptions for canadian and mexican imports that are covered under the usmca trade agreement at least until april the 2nd. but he noted it's only a temporary exemption. take a look right here. it's 50% of mexican imports and just over a third of canadian exports.

>> it's just a. >> modification short term. because i didn't want to hurt the american. it would have hurt the american car companies if i. >> did that. >> did you. >> consider the same. >> sort of. >> exemption or. >> pause for the auto tariffs you're. >> talking about. >> next month? >> we're not looking at that. >> no you're not. >> no we're not looking at that. no. >> all right. following that announcement we'll do a check of the etfs that track the countries that are caught in the tear in the trade war. trump making it a point to single out india yesterday as well as noting it's very high tariff rate. taking a look right now you're seeing the clip that tracks chinese internet companies and tech stocks up about 9% week to date. the overall, the broader chinese etf up about 5.5%. the indian etf still up about two and almost a half a percent. take a look at the mexican etf up one and three quarters of 1%. now this one is interesting. the canadian etf pulling back week to date more than 2%. then on mad money last night we had jim cramer talking about how the uncertainty of these tariffs they're weakening business confidence leading into soft guidance from companies. and also how that volatility is impacting investor confidence.

>> nobody wants to be a sucker. the president knows that. we don't want to feel like doofuses for putting money into the stock market. savings are a good thing. we want people to save. but right now it's not worth it. the real winners of this red hot minute are all short sellers. >> and we're seeing that lack of confidence play out in several key areas of the market, falling lower than the s&p 500 this week. i'm talking about the mag seven down nearly 5%. chips with the sm etf down just about 4%. also the mtum etf. that's one of the ways that we track momentum here at cnbc. down nearly 6.5%. the lack of confidence also pushing more money into the bond market. yields ticking up just a few basis points over the last week but still falling 50 basis points year to date from our highs. we're going to talk a lot about the opportunities in treasuries and corporate bonds coming up later with one of our market guests. but right now, taking a quick look at the benchmark at 4.26. also, you do not want to miss cnbc's conversation with treasury secretary scott bessent. that's coming up later this morning on

squawk box. must see tv. all right. also looking at the dollar this morning, continuing to weaken coming off its worst day since november of 2023. also on pace for its worst week since november of 2022. taking a look right now, seeing the dollar pull back nearly a half a percent week to date, down more than 3.5%, and a check of cryptocurrency bitcoin actually lower ahead of a crypto summit at the white house later today. and president trump's executive order yesterday creating a strategic crypto reserve, which very notably does not include the u.s. government buying new bitcoin, just transferring already held assets into what the white house is calling a digital fort knox. bitcoin right now under 90 bucks a coin actually ticking up just a bit higher right now. up fractionally higher right now. week to date up more than 6%. okay. that is your setup now. want to look ahead to the jobs report. it's going to be a focal point for investors today as they wrestle with the president's rapidly changing trade policies. the fed february numbers out at 8:30 a.m. eastern. the forecast to show 170,000 jobs were added last month, up from 143,000 in

january. unemployment expected to hold steady at 4%. layoffs of federal workers by doge aren't expected to have much impact, as the labor department conducted its survey too early in the month. let's get more insight on the economy, jobs and the consumer impact of tariffs on all three. joining me now, steve odland, president and ceo of the conference board. he's also the former ceo at office depot and autozone as well as a cnbc contributor. also with us, bill simon, former ceo of walmart us. gentlemen good morning. great to have you here. >> good morning. >> steve, let's begin with you. as we look at these tariffs and some of the changes, whether it be exemptions or new tariffs being implemented on things like steel and aluminum coming up next week. how does that impact business decisions and also hiring decisions. >> yeah, we're on. >> a tariff. >> roller coaster. >> for sure. and you know. >> ceos look at. >> these. tariffs and they. >> say the rules of. >> the game. >> are changing. >> the environment. >> is. >> changing. >> and everything stopped. >> it's full stop right now. >> you saw. >> it when. >> the executive. orders came out on january 20th. >> everybody froze decisions.

>> and this. >> is not good for. >> the economy. >> because, you. >> know. >> all capital decisions. >> here roll through. >> but it. >> is you. >> know, it is expected. >> uncertainty freezes ceos and business environment. >> you know we're. >> sitting here at. >> record unemployment lows. >> we're you. >> know we've. >> got massive. >> millions of job openings. >> but you. >> know we've. >> got skill set shortages all over the place. and so. you need a. >> little. bit of. >> looseness coming. into the market. whether or not this will do it. >> we don't know. >> this this. >> jobs report won't tell. >> us much. >> because the survey. >> closed on. >> february 15th. since february 15th, you've had. >> lots of doge cuts. >> you've had. >> unemployment or layoffs. >> from blackrock, >> jp, starbucks. >> estee lauder, amazon. >> microsoft, meta. >> so a lot of activity. post this jobs report next. >> month will be more instructive. >> but right. >> now ceos. >> are in waiting mode. >> all right. bill, coming over to you. i mean, you have so much insight into the consumer. how do these tariffs impact the

consumer. and also the idea of these exemptions and carve outs that we're seeing. we heard the target ceo saying produce prices are going to come up higher or move higher this week. i'm not sure if avocados are covered under usmca or not, but in general, when we're talking about consumers, how big of an impact does this have this whole tariff strategy have on them? >> yeah. good morning. you know. >> it's more of a panic than it is. >> a practical impact on the consumer. ultimately the. consumer decides what the tariffs are, right. if a tariff goes on, a. >> product goes. >> on avocados. they either. have guacamole or they have, you know, salsa and queso with their chips. they don't they don't necessarily have to take the price increase that comes with with the tariffs in certain categories. the, the issue really is, is the uncertainty in tariffs are a blunt instrument as they impact the economy. and if you're if you're using tariffs to try to change manufacturing or shift the base like the president is saying, it

takes, you know, years to make those changes. and, and when there's, you know, as steve was saying, when there's uncertainty, it just sort. >> of causes. >> pause in the market from a from a business decision standpoint. but what it doesn't do is cause a pause from a consumer standpoint. they still eat, they still shop, they still go out and they still behave. they just behave differently based on the prices that that flow through to them based on the tariffs. >> well, bill, i understand your your thesis here is that the consumer decides if they want to pay the tariffs. if guacamole is more expensive, they can decide not to eat it. but what if the tariffs are causing broader inflation in the economy. what does that do to the consumer and also consumer confidence when it comes to spending on wants versus needs? i mean, no matter what, you know, we're going to buy something to eat. we have to buy gas and things like that for our cars. but what about the other parts of the economy? >> you know, i made a tariff. >> really just squeezes the balloon. it doesn't inflate the balloon. it just makes certain things more expensive and other things relatively less expensive. overall, the consumer will shift. they'll be price

increases in certain categories, and then there'll be increased demand on other products that should drive prices. should, should should change prices. it really shifts the equilibrium. it doesn't really it doesn't really inflate the inflate the whole market. the challenge for the certain companies and certain brands is if they if they don't have secondary and tertiary supply chains, the big retailers walmart, costco, target, amazon have secondary and tertiary supply chains and the availability to mitigate much of the tariffs. >> many of. >> the. >> tariffs. >> in fact, with the china tariffs several years ago, most of the retailers, the big retailers already have alternate supply chains to be able to mitigate them. so i think i think that the market reaction to the tariff uncertainty, as steve said, is more pronounced than the consumer reaction is going to be, because right now, there really hasn't been a lot of flow through the prices as it comes through. the consumer will make decisions based on which

prices and products are are flowed through to that. >> and that. >> hasn't happened yet. >> all right. so we're not only talking about consumers making decisions. steve, i want to come to you. we're talking about ceos making decisions. so we brought this up earlier in the show. layoffs. they ticked up about 245% higher in february than they were in january. how are ceos making decisions with all this tariff uncertainty? how does it impact hiring? the decisions to reduce workforce and also capital expenditures when it comes to new projects? >> well. >> ceos clearly hold back on investments capital because you don't know your your cost of capital if all of this change is happening. so therefore you can't commit. and make sure that you make a return. hiring also gets frozen during this period of time. some of those layoffs you mentioned, of course, came after this, this survey. but bill is exactly right. i mean, it's there is substitutability from good to good in the marketplace. and the question is if these tariffs stick and it's a big. >> if and, you. >> know, people don't know whether it's just it's just a negotiating strategy. throw it

on, get some reaction. from our allies and then release them. you know the president has been very clear. it's short term pain for long term gain. how short term i mean nobody has defined that. so ceos are just saying okay let's time out. let's let's just wait here. but you did see a big drop in the conference board's consumer confidence index in the last month. and it's all around tariffs and inflation. and remember the majority of consumer households live paycheck to paycheck. and so it's a matter of what do i have in my wallet this week and what can i spend. and the substitutability what's there and so forth. and then what will be there in the long term? the other thing is who pays the tariffs. so this is collected at the port of port of entry. but you can push that back up through the supply chain. and you're hearing that that countries of origin will contribute to that. so it's not necessarily a one for one ripple through the economy through this. but the whole point here is that we worry about. >> i think that's. >> the hope. >> that the countries of origin will pay part of it. right? i mean, i think the hope is that the countries but the fear is that it's going. >> to production.

>> is going to raise inflation, which is a big issue in the economy. i want to switch gears just a bit, because we only have you guys for a bit longer. another data point that came out yesterday from adp small business payroll growth was negative after 14 months of increases. now, i know you largely represent large enterprises, but do big ceos do they look at this action or this this trend when it comes to smaller companies? how do they read that? >> well, it's we. represent everybody. i mean, our members are everybody. and it's true the smaller ceos are smaller. company ceos are are really concerned about this. majority of jobs in this country are with smaller businesses. and so, you know, any ripple through there is a big deal. you know we tend to quote the big names. but yeah, everybody's frozen at this point. everybody's holding. it's true. and so therefore you will see a ripple i think next month's job report will be will be lower than whatever we experienced this morning. so i don't i'm not sure this morning is going to tell us a lot. the question is what's the impact of

doge, right. >> i think that's a question that we're going to continue to try to answer right here on cnbc this week, next week, a couple months going on. steve odland bill simon, great to have you both here. thank you for your time and for your insight. all right. coming up here on worldwide exchange, a check on your morning's big money movers including gap. what did the ceo was telling our jim cramer about president trump's tariffs. you can see shares are booming this can see shares are booming this morning nearly up 18%. stay power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis, help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. ♪♪ with powerful, easy-to-use tools power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley

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>> and welcome back to. >> worldwide exchange. take a look at us futures right now. you can see the dow is up fractionally. the nasdaq the best performer up nearly half a percent. the s&p up just about a third of a percent. we want to look at big tech this week. taking a look nvidia shares pulling back more than 10% this week. same story for tesla. meta down more than five. microsoft essentially flat pulling back about a quarter of a percent. and don't forget big interview coming up on squawk box later today scott bessent. a lot to talk about. that's coming up at 7 a.m. eastern on squawk box. >> hotel energy. >> has been hunting for the best entrepreneurs across africa to. tackle energy poverty. >> farmers are highly dependent on rainfall, but water is scarce with drought. our solution is mobile solar containers for off grid farmers, which uses ai to make irrigation more efficient. being an entrepreneur is not an easy task. you have to have faith that a door will open. >> ubuntu means unity. >> this is. >> how we're going to fight climate change together.

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university. >> welcome back to worldwide exchange. check out a few of your top stories this morning. shares of broadcom they're soaring after beating the street estimates on the top and the bottom line. the company reporting its ai business revenue was up nearly 80% from a year ago. shares up over 11%. gap shares also taken off on better than expected results and guidance on the topic of trump tariffs. ceo richard dixon telling jim cramer last night gap sauce is only a small portion of its items from china, canada and mexico. those shares up nearly 18%. shares of hewlett packard enterprise they're sinking. you can see they're down nearly 20% on current quarter and full year guidance coming in well below estimates. the company also reporting a larger than expected backlog of ai servers. costco also lower on sales, coming up short of estimates. costco ceo hitting on president trump's tariffs, saying grocery margins are much tighter than in the past and members are likely to become more selective. shares of costco are moving lower. also, elon musk's spacex starship exploding after liftoff in texas

yesterday, causing flights to be grounded at multiple airports in florida. the failure comes just over a month after the latest starship test ended with an explosion. shares of intuitive machines are set to lose a quarter of their value at the open after falling 20% yesterday after the company's lunar spacecraft experienced difficulties landing on the moon. no word on the state of that aircraft. and walgreens officially striking a deal with pe firm sycamore partners to go private in a roughly $10 billion deal. sycamore would pay walgreens shareholders additional money from future sales of the company's primary care businesses. shares of walgreens up just about 5.5%. all right. coming up, the fintech name caught up in the broader market sell off. that our next guest says offers some real opportunities for real opportunities for investors. that name will be (wind, rain and rolling thunder) (♪♪) nobody's born with grit. british anncr: rose is really struggling. it's something you build over time. american anncr: that's twenty-one missed cuts in a row. (car trunk slammed shut) for eighty-nine years, morgan stanley has offered clients determination and forward thinking

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eastern. cnbc the day's top stories driving wall street. >> brian sullivan joins kelly evans. power lunch, weekdays two eastern, cnbc. >> april 8th. join the cnbc changemaker. >> summit. >> featuring powerful women transforming and redefining leadership. >> in the world of business. >> request an invite at cnbc events. com slash changemakers. >> welcome back. >> let's get more. >> on what to expect today from kevin simpson, founder and ceo of capital wealth planning. kevin, good morning. how are you? >> hey, frank, how. >> are you? all right. a lot to get to. let's start off with your word of the day. >> my word of the day is active. >> as an active management, frank, you know, even in the wake of tariff fueled uncertainty, there's always opportunities for active managers. you know, we were spoiled for so long with great economic data, strong earnings momentum, all things that helped the stock market go up. but now and you've covered it perfectly all week. there's just massive

uncertainty over tariffs. and we've got to figure out how do we manage it. how do we separate the emotions from the trade and where do we go from here. >> let me answer that question for us kevin. so much headline risk. what do you do even if you're a long term investor? i know sometimes people say they're a long term investor. they're holding for the long term. but you do have to respond to some of this. i would think. >> you do, frank. and for us it's about covered call writing. you know, you can't always predict what's going to happen in the markets, but you know that there when there is volatility, there are ways to hedge it modestly. and this isn't about market timing or leverage or margin. just quite simply old fashioned covered call writing, harvesting some of that volatility to generate a little premium to smooth out the ride and buffer a little bit of the downside. so since the really since the election, we've been able to write a lot of premium, bring in a good bit of cash flow through covered call writing while still maintaining those positions like the buy and hold investor. >> all right, kevin, we got to get through a few things. so very quickly. jobs report coming up. estimate is for job growth

month over month 170,000. if we don't hit that mark what are you expecting. how do you respond? >> i think anything between 100 and 200 will be okay. you want it to be a little bit on the higher side. that 170 i think would be goldilocks numbers. really? the thing is, you don't want to see wage growth to be too high. too high because that's an inflationary measure. so we want it to be hot but high but not too hot. >> all right. jay powell speaking after the jobs report later today afternoon. what are you expecting from him. how big of a market mover could that be. of course we don't know what the jobs report is going to be either. >> yeah. i think we. >> have to wait and see what the jobs number is, but i'm expecting that the chairman to be a little bit more dovish in terms of the commentary. you know we've seen the yield on the ten year come down a lot. the bond market has spoken. and now we kind of need the fed to validate that the whole world, at least in the us stock market, investors especially would like to see rate cuts this year. we need to see an abatement in inflation. but any dovish comments out of the fed talking about the potential for multiple cuts will be well received by

the market. >> i need the elevator pitch on your pick. i'm going to just say it. it's robin hood. why is that your pick? very quickly. i know it's really quickly. it used to trade like a meme stock. it isn't. it's a legitimate company. they've got tons of aum. they're bringing in young investors and educating them. they made an acquisition tradepmr that legitimizes them. i love. >> the name. got to leave it there. thank you very much. scott bessant coming up on squawk box, which starts right now. >> good morning. >> welcome to jobs friday. we're just a few hours away from the big number. >> i don't. know if it's. >> going to be. >> a big number. >> be a big number. it could be a small number. we're going to end a. >> wild ride. >> wild week for. >> wall street and a disappointing adp payroll report. >> just a. couple of days ago. >> so who knows. >> 830 president trump pressing pause. again on some of his new tariffs on canada and mexico. >> details on the one. >> month delay. >> is straight ahead. >> and we'll bring you an. >> interview on those tariffs.

>> and many. >> other issues, things like the economy. >> taxes. >> much more. when we speak. >> with treasury secretary scott bessant, that's coming. up right. at the top of. >> the. >> seven in studio. squawk box begins right now. no. >> good morning everybody. >> welcome to squawk box right here on squawk. >> on cnbc. >> we're live from the nasdaq market site. >> in times. >> square i'm becky quick. along with. joe kernan. >> and andrew. >> ross sorkin. and here we are on this friday. >> that has been. >> a. >> pretty tumultuous week for the. >> markets right now. >> you're going. >> to. >> see. >> that the us. >> equity futures are a little bit higher this morning. dow futures up by 43. >> s&p futures are up. >> by 15. the nasdaq. >> is up. >> by about 80 points. but the s&p. >> is coming. >> off its sixth straight session