regulatory policy, immigration, trade and all that and fiscal policy and saying i am taking them as i'm taking them as a whole. scott, not one by one. >> gotcha. steve. we'll keep watching the market, obviously, which is going to continue to be pushed and pulled from some of the policy coming out. and frankly, the remarks coming out of the oval today that megan cassella had brought to us earlier, where we're expecting those reciprocal tariffs at the very early part of april, well, maybe could come as early as today, the president said perhaps monday or tuesday. just wanted to wrap that up for you. i'll see you on the closing bell. you'll see steve again. we'll see what the markets do. and i'll send it now to the exchange. >> and fed chair jay powell wrapping up a speech and q&a on the economy, on monetary policy, on tariffs, all at a conference in new york city, said a lot of things. but among them, the fed is focused on, quote, separating the signal from the noise. all this as we got more noise on

trade today, with the president saying that tariffs, reciprocal tariffs could go into effect as early as today. oh by the way welcome to the exchange everybody. i am brian sullivan in for kelly. she'll be back on monday. stocks. they are down across the board. however they are paring earlier losses. maybe it's on powell. maybe it's on the trump tariff comments. maybe it's on the fact that there are more buyers than sellers. either way, we are down across the board, but well off our lows. we'll see what happens in the final, what, three hours of trading today. all right. so let's get right into the biggest takeaways from jay powell. cnbc senior economics reporter steve liesman is there live. you just saw him like 20s ago on the halftime report steve, what has changed in the last 20s? i'm kidding. what what is it that powell said that you think may have turned this market around? >> well, you know, first of all, brian, you know, there's a whole bunch of loyal viewers that know

that you're on the 1:00 and may have just turned the television on, of course, to, to see what you had to say. and i'll tell you what i told them just a few minutes ago, which is that powell is saying he's acknowledging what the market knows, which is that there's a lot of stuff, a lot of balls in the air. there's trade, there's fiscal policy, there's immigration, there's regulation. and he's saying, look, the fed is not going to do anything very quickly. it's going to look at the net effect of all of this. and i like the fact that you led the show talking about the fed separating the signal from the noise. and most importantly, i think, is powell saying, look, we're not we're in a good place to be able to figure this out. if we have to, we will reduce rates. if we have an unexpected weakening of the job market. and if we have to, we'll hold rates where they are in order to deal with any unexpected inflation, and that the initial impulse of the fed here, when it comes to prices that may go up because of tariffs, is to just let them pass through, not react

initially. >> can i ask. >> you to editorialize? >> just a touch, steve, before we bring in our panel? because there's a part of me, jay powell, as the head of the federal reserve, it's not just what he says, but kind of how he says it. and the powell that we just watched, you saw live and in person was a relaxed jay powell. there was no sense of panic. he made a couple of jokes. there were some funny lines. the crowd laughed. do you think part of this market i feel like is coming back? because powell himself didn't seem that concerned. >> you know, it's an excellent observation, brian, and one i really hadn't thought of, but i'll venture the following. powell is in a place now where what he has to do is not really dependent upon actions that he takes. i would imagine a much more nervous powell when you had inflation above 7%, and outcomes are entirely reliant upon his

reaction to that inflation or when inflation was low and he had to figure that out, or when he had a banking crisis to deal with. right now, he is not in control of what the administration does. so in terms of finding a zen with your policy and with your outlook, all he can do is take a step back and just wait and watch what happens, watch the data and react. but he is not in control, or nor will he be responsible for what happens at the administration level. he will ultimately have some decisions to make. but those decisions and this gets back to what he's saying right now, those decisions are not now to be made. >> the ten year yield 4.28% not moving. i feel it's almost a little seinfeldian if that's a word, steve. serenity now you're going to stay there. let's get more reaction to all of this. talk about jobs, potential tariffs, the markets and more. got a great panel to kick it off. diane swonk, chief

economist at kpmg. joining us steven whiting on set, chief investment strategist at citi wealth. and gilbert garcia, chief investment officer at garcia hamilton and associates. steven, i will begin with you because you're sitting here. okay. what was your main takeaway from jay powell? the markets seem to like it a little bit. >> well, i would say that powell still considers protecting the economy one of his goals. this wasn't as steve liesman just said. you know powell with a zero funds rate 9% inflation rate ahead. you know this is a fed funds rate of 4.5%. there are some exogenous issues that could happen. tariffs are not going to make american wallets any bigger right. it's will. >> they make those smaller. >> well yeah i think if it costs more to get the same products at some level. again 2018 was small potatoes. this is a lot bigger potentially. and who knows what exactly it will be. but it is not monetary inflation. it's not. again the fed being way

off. sides and still arguing that at this point, if. >> we end up. >> with a. little bit of price pressure, we can still protect the economy rate cuts if needed. >> it's an interesting point, diane, and i'm not minimizing the market decline so far this week, but i will say this to steve's point, to stephen's point and to jay powell's point, because powell made a comment about the pandemic, basically saying the universe had other plans, meaning the beginning of 2020, he almost sounded like, yeah, there's uncertainty, but uncertainty that is. manageable. and that's not brian sullivan editorializing. the markets have come back, so i'm just following the data. what was your takeaway, diane? >> well, i think. >> jay went into this. jay powell went into this wanting to not ruffle any feathers, not wanting to make a lot of noise. we've seen many fed presidents evoking the 1970s as a cautionary tale. you're not going to hear that from the board of governors. and i think

jay powell, as the head of the board of governors and as the chair, he is in that exact position that steve said he's going to be reacting to anything. this is not something. whatever comes next is not because of something he's done. and i think that's the important thing. our own analysis and our own scenarios. and i know the fed's running scenarios as well. the amount of tariffs that we're talking about with even with major cuts in federal spending, we're getting a stagflationary scenario. that's one that the fed can just hold rates and stay on the sidelines a lot longer. it's not something we've dealt with in decades. it's not the kind of stagflation we saw in the 1970s. but, you know, i also think it's telling that one of the things he talked about of, you know, who's his favorite fed chair, paul volcker. >> it was interesting. gilbert garcia, do you worry as a guy that his job is to figure out where interest rates are going?

do you worry about stagflation? >> well. >> let me tell you my view, if. >> you don't mind, which. is first, i. >> think the fed is. >> already falling behind the curve. >> i think. >> it is clear. that inflation is on a glide path. >> getting to their 2% rate. and my own. >> view is a. lot of the data that we're seeing. >> is somewhat. >> old news, because i believe that what's happening in washington and this is not a political statement, but the uncertainty, all the noise, all the flip flopping is going to lead to consumer sentiment really plummeting. it's going to lead to a lot of capex expenditures being delayed. and i think what we're missing and what i don't think is really being discussed is, you know, we're already somewhere around the mid 2% or so on core inflation, going from 2.5 to 2 point 6 or 7. we can handle that. but what we cannot handle is wrecking the economy, meaning keeping rates so high that all of a sudden, by the time you can see the whites in your eyes, as some people had said, you'll see

unemployment tick up to 5%, or maybe even more, because that would be devastating for the american people. >> you know, steve, i think there's actually a pretty famous line kind of about the signal of noise. it goes something like this. the politicians throwing stones and the kids, they dance and shake their bones. and i'm thinking, you know, you saw what i did there with the dead, but what? what is the signal and what is the noise that powell was talking about? >> well, that's the problem, i think. and that's really the rejoinder to what gilbert is saying. i agree with the sentiment of what he's saying. i have a problem, however, with the kind of timing and sequence here. and here's my problem. you're in a situation where at least short term inflation expectations are elevated. one two is that the fed is above target and that three, we just went through a bout of higher inflation. so what might happen is people start to say, well wait a second. these tariffs have raised prices. maybe i'm

going to change my outlook on inflation. so i think gilbert is right that the fed, all things being equal, can and should be cutting interest rates here because of the concern about growth. my concern is that these tariffs don't end up being the one time pass through that people hope it is, and ends up being something that takes the fed longer to discern that it's not just a one time event. >> you're brian, if you just think about what is noise here, just let's consider trade policy. uncertainty has risen to an all time high, higher than during the pandemic. every port in the world clogged worse than 2018. >> the headline. >> readings on 25% tariffs on north america are. larger than reciprocal tariffs. so just a massive amount of incredible. worry about this that's creeping in. and a 10% rise in imports in one month. that's not even annualized. so there's some distortions going on in the economy that are not necessarily. >> going to be here all year long. >> so speaking of the president,

we're going to everybody stick around. we're going to come right back to the panel. but the president speaking from the oval office now speaking pretty much every day, megan cassella joining us now because the president did make some comments about these so-called reciprocal tariffs. >> he sure did, brian. and it was a little bit of mixed messaging from the president today. so he was talking with reporters. and he first said that those reciprocal tariffs that we have long been expecting to start on april 2nd, he said they could be as early as today. he went on to say we might wait until monday or tuesday. but a few minutes later, he also repeated the april 2nd date. so saying both within minutes of each other. and i'll say that the as early as today. comments brian came in the context of he was making some complaints about canada, about high tariffs on canada's dairy and lumber to very protected markets up there. and he's made that before. what i would say. and just to help guide our viewers on this is the number of times that we've heard the april 2nd date, including in this oval office briefing today,

tells me that that is still the date to be tracking on these reciprocal tariffs. but we are, of course, now on high alert for something to come in the next few days, particularly given that context against canada. but april 2nd still seems to be the primary date, but a little bit of mixed messaging there from the president. we do have lines out to the white house to try to clarify this a little bit further. he went on with some further tariff complaints against the eu, saying that they were designed to really take advantage of the united states, but they will no longer take advantage of the us with him in office. one last thing to flag, brian is that he also mentioned the chips act, and not for the first time, but very clearly here. he called it just a waste of money. of course, that could mean big things for those tech companies that did win grant money from the chips act. so something further to watch to see if he asks congress to move on that. >> brian megan cassella at the white house. megan, there's a lot there to unpack. thank you very much. we go back to our panel, steve liesman, stephen whiting, diane swonk, garcia. diane. okay, a couple of things.

forget about the president's ability to hold the news cycle. i think that's its own class because he just says stuff and then we react to it. and it's every day now we're we didn't hear from the president for months before. now it's every day. there's got to be some happy medium. that aside that aside, diane, the president and his treasury secretary, scott bessent on squawk box this morning. you might have seen it. he made some interesting comments about the consumer and income, who's very almost non capitalistic, if that's the sense, he said, that basically a small percentage of top earners, likely our viewers and listeners, are spending about half of our money. i want you to listen to what bessent had to say and then respond. >> the biden administration created this bad equilibrium where. >> the top 10% people. >> people in this. >> room. >> probably most of the people watching this show. top 10% of americans are 40 or 50% of consumption. and that is an unstable equilibrium. the bottom 50% of working americans have

gotten killed. we are trying to address that. we're trying to get rates down. and, you know, could we be seeing that the this economy that we inherited starting to roll a bit? sure. and look, there's going to be a natural adjustment as we move away from public spending to private spending. the market and the economy have just become hooked. we've become addicted to this government spending, and there's going to be a detox period. >> there was a lot there to unpack. diane, what do you think about this quote, detox that besson's talking about? >> well, at the first, the most important thing is, of course, the bill that was sent from the house to the senate included deep cuts to medicaid spending. and that hits lower income households the hardest. so i think we need to take that into context. we're also seeing the collateral damage of some of the federal layoffs, and people may

likely get delays in their tax refunds because of cuts at the irs. there. all can agree that there's waste in government spending. but i think, you know, getting back, backing up a bit and looking at the tariff scenarios out there and i want to put this back in there, even though inflation has been cooling. and i would agree it would continue cooling. but the new policies coming in with both weakness and tariffs that we're tracking with our own customs people, they are as high in our baseline with what is already in the in the package, what they're already pushing through of 1936. that is a stunning increase in tariffs. now some of that's going to hit profit margins. some of it's going to show up in prices that stagflationary. we also have curbs on immigration. it showed up in the employment data today in childcare employment and in elder care employment. those are two areas in the service sector that are

rising at twice the pace of overall inflation. we have supply chains that are longer, not shorter than they were pre-pandemic and more susceptible to disruptions related to retaliation. and believe me, when we're the 800 pound gorilla in the room countries, when they retaliate on us on tariffs, they're going to use guerrilla warfare. they're going to be strategic about it, and they're going to hit our supply chains. >> you're dropping the 1936 reference. gilbert, i thought we might go back to 1890 and the william mckinley tariffs. i mean, at some point, you know, in 1792 the buttonwood agreement was signed. i gilbert, what's the point? is there any upside here? is it like, let's be honest, let's just speak bluntly. what is the administration doing? there has to be a strategy. what do you see it as? >> well, first of all, i think the let's speaking bluntly, they're really wrecking the economy because at the end of the day, all this noise is just frightening people. traders are

exhausted. you know, it's every day now what are they going to say? and i believe that ultimately the fed has it wrong. they're reacting. i think the dot plots were something that were invented. they were a great for transparency, but they were also the worst thing because we're all fixated on that. and they're looking in the rearview mirror. and i think the market's getting it right. they're starting to realize that terrorists are not inflationary, that they're deflationary. i think they're starting to realize that potential budget deficit increases are not correlated with higher rates. i think they're getting it right that the government now is going to be in contracting. and i think that the market is starting to get it right. and that's why we're starting to price in more cuts. and i thought you were going to reference bto. you ain't seen nothing yet because i think that's really where we're going. we ain't seen nothing yet. it's going to be more and more trouble. more and more headlines, more and more angst between our allies. and ultimately, this will all lead

to much lower rates here in the. >> u.s, the only band from winnipeg i would ever reference would be neil young. by the way, steve liesman, you won in. >> well. >> i thought it was interesting that the treasury secretary pointed out at least what i think is the biggest problem in this country. i don't think the problem in this country is trade. i don't think mexicans and canadians are making americans poorer. i think what we have is a massive inequality problem in this country. this is a tremendously wealthy country, and there are very interesting questions about the distribution of that wealth. in a world where technology creates massive returns to the winners here. and i think it's a little bit unfair in that i think the biden administration was perhaps unsuccessfully, but at least attempting to deal with that inequality. and it's not entirely clear to me that by solving by putting tariffs on, you're going to solve that inequality problem at the same time that you're cutting back on government spending.

>> that's a fair point that he's making, steven whiting. but i think i think and i don't i do not want to speak for the president. i've never talked to him. i have no idea what he's thinking. the idea is that in the 70s, 60s, 50s, 60s 70s his golden era of middle class, we always refer to, which i think is a little bit misleading. but that aside is the idea we're going to make everything here. it'll cost a little more, but incomes will go up with it because we're not going to be making it offshore. we'll make it here. we'll have to spend more on it, but it will last longer. is there anything to that? >> look, there's. >> an idea here. i think that. >> ship might might have sailed on that one. >> reshoring is going to generate a lot more output income investment in the united states. >> and if. >> that can be accomplished in the longer run, wonderful. i would tell you. that for. >> the equity market, you know what will. >> help factory jobs? >> you know, again, relatively speaking, maybe we'll have smaller losses versus some othe. >> country, this sort of thing. you think about the equity market in the united states, we have a trade deficit, but we

have a market cap surplus. we started this year with u.s. equities worth twice as much as the entire rest of the world, because american companies could source things wherever they were cheapest in the world and sell them wherever demand was strongest. and this is in the way of that. it's not 300 or $400 billion going to be enough to wreck a $30 trillion economy. it's certainly, again, setting business expectations lower following consumer confidence down. >> so, diane, very quickly we got to go. but i'll ask it. let's end on a positive. it's friday. let's end on a positive note. what if the president comes out and says, you know what? i talked to trudeau over the weekend, although now he's going after the eu, who knows. and everything's great. and they agreed to do this and there's no tariffs. and what what happens then if it's a big if we get that. >> if we get no tariffs then the fed should be cutting. absolutely. and also we have to deal with the immigration issue. we can all argue that we need to have immigration reform. but the

fact that we're losing workers in areas where it's the most inflationary in the economy, you have these pockets of labor shortages that are going to be creating a floor under inflation. >> a very good discussion, one we probably could have taken for the whole hour, to be honest with you, diane. thank you. stephen whiting gilbert and steve liesman, of course. thank you, steve liesman. we will see you in just a bit. in the meantime, it's not all about tariffs. we do have a news alert on apple. steve kovach what's going on. >> hey there brian. >> yeah apple. >> is. >> going to be delaying. >> its big. >> artificial intelligence. >> update for siri. >> this is. >> the. >> version of siri. >> that was supposed to. >> come out. >> this spring that. >> they announced. >> last june. >> as part of that big ai. >> apple intelligence overhaul. it's supposed. >> to let. >> you. >> talk to your apps, kind of understand your personal data better. >> also understands the stuff that. >> is on. >> your screen. >> and letting. >> you interact. >> with it. >> the ai. >> interact with it in that way. >> this is not. >> happening anytime soon. it sounds. >> like they're telling.

>> us in the coming year. to me, that sounds like 2026 when they say that. but this is a big blow here because this was supposed to be the major artificial intelligence update for apple devices that everyone was looking for. we've seen some minor features, of course, including that chatgpt integration launch over the last few months. but this was the big one everyone was waiting for, and now it looks like we're going to have to wait at least until 2026. >> we know why. like, what's the literal holdup? >> just saying. they need more time to work on it. they need. >> more hardware, maybe. >> and in the meantime, you have all these other ai competitors, including chatgpt and so forth, really pushing forward with this technology, by the way, you can use it on your iphone anyway. but as far as siri getting smarter and that big ai update for siri built into your iphone, you're going to have to wait until next year. brian. >> well, can i just offer apple as a long time apple guy? like, can you just fix iphoto? like fix photos? they changed it. >> i'm sure they'll get right on that now. >> you can't find anything. it's bizarre. work on that. then do the ai thing. but i digress. steve kovach, thank you very much. on deck the call of the

day on wall street involving a big stock and a big name, plus more. today's big moves and whether it is time to shift your thinking. look at that. market's roaring back. the nasdaq is now positive. everything's fine. we're back right after this. we're back right after this. >> this is the exchange on (♪♪) car, this isn't the way home. that's right james, it isn't. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com ♪ are you having any fun? ♪ investment objectives, ris♪ what you gettingses out of living? ♪

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>> all right. it has been a crazy day so far. the dow industrials are higher every look at that. take a screenshot right. unless you're driving. don't do that. if you're not driving take a screenshot. we are basically zeroed across the board. but if you're just joining us that doesn't tell you the story. if you're just waking up in guam. all right. the markets rose at the beginning of the day. then they fell. at one point, the nasdaq was down, what, one and a half? almost 2%. looked like another washout ahead of the weekend. then the markets came roaring back. maybe it's on jay powell's comments. a relaxed jay powell at the new york economic club. we'll see. president trump making some comments as well saying tariffs may go into effect today. he also, by the way, this week signed an executive order to create a strategic bitcoin reserve. by the way helping crypto prices may be a little bit today. bitcoin is down but it's at 87,857. so bitcoin while

lower from its highs, is far from being wiped out. stock market coming back. all right. what else happened this week. well we still got an hour and 2.5 hours to go. so i'm going to tell you what's going on. it may change luxury retail. it's been hit hard this week ralph lauren worst week since 2020 down 16%. tapestry you know it is coach down 14% since monday in europe lvmh keurig both down about 10% this week. also happening a brutal one for a casino. king caesars is tracking for a record 14th straight day with a falling stock. it's down another 4.5%. caesars, by the way, back to its lowest level. it's may of 2020. and finally, the deal du jour is really kind of a sad end to a once great public company. walgreens is nearing a nearly ending, nearly a 100 year run as a public company. walgreens is taking a buyout. walgreens will

go public. it will no longer be a stock. the buyout for $10 billion in late 2019. walgreens received a $70 billion buyout offer from private equity giant kkr. it obviously did not happen. shares of walgreens down more than 80% in that time. by the way, many walgreens stores have closed or are closing, and thousands more people could lose their jobs as stores closed. but walgreens boots alliance wba will soon no longer be a stock. all right, let's get a cbc news update. seema mody. >> ryan. >> the trump. administration has canceled $400 million. >> in grants and contracts to the columbia university, the education department said today. the decision was based off of the university's alleged failure to protect jewish students. >> the university. >> was at the center of pro-palestinian demonstrations that rocked college campuses nationwide last year. columbia has said it is committed to combating anti-semitism. the cdc

is reportedly planning a large study on the potential link between vaccines and autism, according to reuters, citing sources. it's unclear how it would be carried out. according to the cdc itself, scientific studies have consistently shown no link between vaccines and autism. the cdc has yet to comment on this story. and train services from paris will start to resume later today after an unexploded world war two era bomb shut down one of europe's busiest. train stations, france's transport minister said the disposal of the estimated 1,000 pound bomb led to nearly 500 canceled trains. a big story 500 canceled trains. a big story in oh, it makes me want to tear up. i swear to god, there ain't no way i would be here without tik tok. i got really good at tearing motors apart and putting them back together, and the car still worked. i received so much support for that, and it made me feel like, okay, maybe i can really, really, really do this. (♪♪) my business has tripled in the last year because of me sharing my videos on tiktok.

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answers with more context, more guidance instead of ten blue links. so the pre i straightforward search googling for sleep tracker brings up something like this sponsored post at the very top. an easy way for google to charge for ads. the news still experimental ai mode. it looks like this in google's demo. it anticipates questions, and so it's powered by a custom version of its gemini reasoning model that uses a multi-step approach to give users a mix of what looks like sponsored posts, but also ai generated answers and comparisons. it then prompts for another question, keeping that dialog going rather than users entering another prompt at the top with a whole new set of results. so really, by getting more detailed understanding of what the user is looking for. google says that when it does suggest a website, the user spends more time on it. it's a better match between intent and result, which makes advertisers more willing to pay for placement. in short, the shift to more ai within search. it doesn't just change how users use it. you and i use it. it

also changes how google monetizes it, blending ai discovery with its core advertising business. now, whether google can pull that off, whether advertisers are indeed willing to pay the same amount more or less for that, that's an open question. it's also an open question how fast enough google can make this transition. remember, this is only an experimental mode for google one users. and meanwhile, ai native chatbots like perplexity, they're testing their own ad models, and they don't have the same kind of innovator's dilemma, right? they don't have to worry about cannibalizing massively profitable ad businesses. >> deirdre, i'm old enough that my searches began on something called microfiche. okay, so i just want to make that clear. i'm throwing that out there, but it would seem to me that this change or update, whatever you want to call it, is google trying to ease the market's concern about ai killing its core search business? >> not only is it trying to ease market concerns, it's trying to save its own business. i mean,

the space is moving so, so quickly and in so many ways. google is ahead technologically, but it doesn't get the credit because it's not really leaning or hasn't leaned as much on this massive distribution to deploy these new ai products. right. there's gemini, but now, for example, if you have the google app on your phone and you want to do a gemini ai powered search, you have to download another app. so google has brought sort of ai answers to the mainstream. this ai mode presumably takes it another step by getting people who aren't going to download chat bots used to a new way of searching while trying to keep that ad model, at least in some sense. so google is trying to have its cake and eat it too, which is a tall task. we'll see if it's able to do so. but that is really i mean, one of the biggest questions for. >> investors right now, millions of viewers and listeners are asked giving what microsoft microfiche means. deirdre bosa thank you very much. >> i might do that myself.

>> and you can google what askjeeves is. all right. coming up, it's sentiment versus fundamentals when it comes to big tech. according to one portfolio manager. where should you be right now? he'll join us next. >> tech check is sponsored by >> tech check is sponsored by comcast (♪♪) discover alaska aboard riviera, the only true foodie ship sailing the region. where breathtaking natural wonders meet unmatched service from the heart. with one chef for every ten guests, indulge in gourmet dining on an ultra-premium small ship. scenic days, endless memories. call now for amazing savings. book now at oceaniacruises.com to win her market. >> she begins with a market

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highlights hand-selected daily by cnbc experts. sign up now for free. go to cnbc.com. slash. spotlight. >> all right welcome back. let's talk tech. certainly it has been a rough week. now the nasdaq is higher right now. but it's down big on the week and about 10% off its record high. but your next guest says it could be a little bit scary. but you need to stand your ground and hold your stocks. he runs the gabelli growth fund. top holdings include microsoft and nvidia, as well as amazon and apple. he says the fundamentals in the mag seven are still intact. joining us now, john bolton, growth equities fund manager at gabelli fund. john, great to have you. perfect day to have you on. i'm not you don't operate on a day to day basis i get it. but what do you say to clients that call you or email you or text you or whatever and say, i'm scared right now? well, first. >> thank you for having me. it's nice to get away from the screen for a couple hours. >> there's plenty here, by the way. >> yeah, but no, i think it's

pretty clear that the nasdaq, we're in the middle of a buyers strike right now. and i think a lot of this is happening no secret in response to a lot of uncertainty in policy coming from the white house, i think the last couple days have reminded me a little bit of one of my favorite movies, ferris bueller's day off. the scene where ben stein is explaining the smoot-hawley tariff act. >> or something, 000 economics. >> that scene. >> where he's like, did it work? class? anyone? did the tariffs work? no, they did not work in the united states. sank deeper into the great depression. and that's sort of the dynamic between, i think, wall street and the white house right now. and i think there's just been a buyers strike. wall street's unwilling to put to add risk during this period of uncertainty. >> so what do you think the dip into politics if you want. what do you think the white house is doing? >> we'd rather not dip into politics. we'd rather stick to what i know. >> but you have to operate in their in their world, john. right. and they say tariffs on china and you are a major holder of apple right. apple's phones

this thing is made in china. right. >> and i think that there's so many dynamics to get into. i mean us-china being one dynamic. and i think that has implications for a lot of the big tech companies. but just kind of more broadly, i think the market's trying to find trying to figure out what is this administration's real objectives and real goals and where is kind of the north star that they're going towards. >> you know, i'm not going to minimize what happened this week or the last couple of weeks. you know, anytime we have a big decline, 1% decline, i think for seven straight days, it's a scary time. i'm not minimizing that whatsoever. but i did post last night some stats from charlie bilello of creative planning that markets go down. that's right. that's the bad news john. markets go down on average, what, 25, 29 times a year, more than 1%, 5%, 10% drawdowns are not only normal, but they're kind of healthy, right? i mean, i imagine as a fund manager, you want to buy

lower and sell higher, right? absolutely. >> and i think coming into the year, sticking with the nasdaq, we're coming off a 40% plus year in 2023, a 30% plus year in 2024. we were kind of priced for perfection. so obviously hindsight's always 2020. but when you have that sort of a backdrop during an administration change, there's always going to be, you know, some possibility of a correction, which we are now in the middle of, in the nasdaq. >> are you finding any better values then in european tech or any place else in the world? >> well, europe, europe has had a very sharp move in the other direction versus the us. >> but it's outperforming the united states. almost every major market in europe by a lot in the last few months, last few years. no. >> europe's definitely having a moment right now. and we do have a global growth fund with a good size, good exposure to europe. but i think going back to your question, are we finding any value? i think the most

important thing for us is that, by and large, the fundamentals for most of these companies, i'll stick to large mega-cap tech right now because that's what we open with. fundamentals remain pretty strong. these companies are coming off by and large, really positive. fourth quarter earnings reports gave pretty optimistic views into first quarter into 2025. so i think so long as that is the case, these stocks will work over the long term. >> and you're talking about to your point, the mega-cap names a lot of companies have become mega-caps but don't have the mega cap earnings. right. i would imagine your screens, what you're looking at, you and your team, john, are like, okay, this company is trading. you know, it's worth $100 billion on 5 million in sales. you know, the valuations for some of these stocks at least this is the market's view, not mine. appear to have gotten just stupid i. >> wouldn't say those are the names that we tend to invest in. >> that's what i mean. like you got to differentiate the apples and the microsofts from a lot of other companies that people are

buying to 100 times sales. >> right. so i think if you see what's happened with the mega caps, so take nvidia as an example, kind of in the middle of a 20% correction. interesting dynamic. there is earnings estimates have been revised about 15% higher for 2025 and 2026 since the election. despite that big positive revision. >> the stock is down despite earnings expectations going up. something's wrong. >> the multiple is de-rated to ten year lows. and in something like nvidia and that dynamic in nvidia for a much more niche sort of ai stock like astera labs. just taking an example. it's that dynamic on steroids where this company is actually outperforming. we don't own that stock, but just illustrative companies outperforming expectations. but it is just the market being in risk off mode is just punishing a stock. >> and in some ways mark people if they need to raise money for margin calls or whatever, they're going to sell what they can. right. they're going to nvidia is a sellable stock. there's a buyer waiting.

absolutely. >> so and i think a lot of the pain the last couple of days has been winners getting sold, which tells you you know i think. >> that's what exactly. >> risk being taken off the table. >> yeah. >> you had a stock like yesterday. you had a stock like netflix down significantly on no news. it's a company with all the fundamentals are just going in the right direction clicking on all cylinders. it's been a big winner. so anyways, back to your your question. yeah i think that creates a dynamic where eventually there's a fundamental level where money can start to step in and provide some fundamentals. >> there's i like it, it's friday. we're doing a little optimism. i kind of like that, you know what i mean. and when the markets by the way, they're higher right now john bolton gabelli funds john thank you. have a great weekend. thank you brian. speaking of megacap tech meta, as of at least right now, the only magnificent seven name in the green so far this year, but nearly down about 8% this week. but again, there's time. there's time. julia boorstin down on what is driving some of this meta drop this week julia.

>> well brian tariffs aren't just raising concerns about consumer spending. they could also impact how much consumers are willing how much excuse me. companies are willing or able to spend on advertising. and the digital ad giant stocks are getting crushed. now over the past week, meta shares are down about 8%, pinterest down 8% as well. snap down 6%, reddit down 16%, and roku shares are down about 10% now, leading digital ad categories that could be hit hard by tariffs include retail and cpg, which together account for 44% of total u.s. ad spend. while automakers comprise 7% of total u.s. digital ad spend. now, madison and wall's brian wieser is saying, quote, the potential for disruption in the auto industry and thus advertising remains a real risk. there was one good signal this week, though, pinterest ceo bill

ready saying yesterday we don't currently see advertisers overreacting or these kinds of things, saying it's obviously a fluid environment. now, digital platforms have the advantage of offering targeting and measurement for ads, but it's also easy to quickly turn off ads if brands are feeling a squeeze from tariffs brian. >> all right julia boorstin been a busy week. julia we appreciate it. and by the way safe travels to singapore. all right. coming up if you want to buy low and sell high one big research firm says there's one stock there it is it's tesla. we'll get the bullish view on a stock that everybody's been selling. stick around. >> chronic sleep disorder

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more than $500 billion. and that's what tesla lost. tesla stock is down more than 40% off its record high that it hit back in december. and by the way it's raised nearly all the gains going back to the election. outside of that how was the play mrs. lincoln? let's talk more now about reasons to be bullish on tesla at ty micheli. joining us now. likes tesla and general motors as well. ty why the upgrade. why now? >> sure. well we're happy to have. >> taken coverage here at td cowen of the. auto sector. so we transferred coverage over. and yes, we did put a buy on tesla $388 price target. look tesla is always a highly debated stock to your point. but what we found kind of really helps the stock work. ultimately what we focus on are sentiment shifting catalysts. and with the stock down about 50% from the highs and yes, q1 will be challenging, i think that's pretty widely known. we do see a number of potentially consequential catalysts beyond q1, both on the

ev side and the ev side. and a set of, frankly, reminds us of last year's where the stock was under a lot of pressure in the first half of the year before sentiment improved in the second half of the year. we see a similar pattern here as we want to be there for these potential catalysts that will come beyond. >> you know, you can go to it. they don't really have dealerships, but they have selling locations. there's one near me and there's people that stand out in front in new york and other places with signs down with elon musk. do you worry it's going to scare off tesla buyers? >> yeah. look, both bull and bear cases have legitimate points. that is one of them. there are some brand concerns here in the near term. but the bigger issue, we think, for the company has been on the ev product side, just a lack of product renewal up until the model three refresh last year, and the model y that's being refreshed right now. and you do have a number of products the companies talked about that are going to be launched over the next couple of years, and product cycles tend to be great catalysts for automaker stocks to help revive market share. by our numbers, we think tesla has actually lost quite a bit of market share in some of the

heaviest ev counties in the us, and that could lead to a recovery. plus, there's a lot of other parts of the country where ev demand is still low and new products could be the catalyst there. one of our themes in our initiation, brian, is don't sleep on the us ev market with two cars per household. imagine a scenario where people wake up and say, i want to have one ev and one ice vehicle in my household. if that were to happen over time, ev demand could inflect very quickly. >> describe my entire town. here's the thing though. gm just released a cadillac escalade ev that's like 10,000 pounds and like half the length of a semi tractor trailer truck and starts at $130,000. i mean, i'm not picking on gm. there's a buyer for it. i'm sure there's smart people. that's why they did it. but like, where does the ev market go? how much are we willing to pay for a car? and i bought an ev. i own an ev suv that goes 30% less than it's advertised. let's be realistic. >> yeah. look, i think ev prices have come down. you know,

escalade certainly is a high price point. but when you think about, you know, kind of sticking with gm for a moment, the equinox ev, the blazer ev, the new cadillac of ev that's launching right now. and of course, even in tesla's case and other automakers case, they are now becoming much more affordable. the ev market, we think, does need new product, new products help help expand market coverage. and, of course, you know, affordability is still a headwind, but it has gotten better over time. so we think as this market develops over time, there's still a lot of potential for growth. again, to your point on your town at two vehicles per household, our ev adoption setup is very different than the rest of the world. if we have one ice and one ev across large parts of the population, that could drive much more ev demand than people commonly realize. >> one for driving around town, one for the road trip over the river and through the woods to grandmother's house we go. it's a mix of county. made a lot of tesla bulls happy. thank you folks, thank you for watching the exchange. i'll join morgan brennan for power lunch right brennan for power lunch right (♪♪)

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